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NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2020
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We have talked a lot about the draft, biggest remaining needs for every NFL team, some breakout candidates and other stuff, so let’s now get back to more of a big picture and look at some teams from an angle of where could they go next season. In this article, I am analyzing those teams that finished fourth in their division this past year and why they could win it in 2020 or land at the bottom once again, plus an outlook where I actually see them.
Of course much of this is about these eight teams and how much better or worse I feel about them than the general public, but it was heavily dependent on their three division rivals as well. The top half I could certainly see earn a playoff spot and surprise some people if everything goes right. After that a lot of my faith is more built around the lack of great competition and giving some hope to these respective fan bases. As the cliché goes – everybody is 0-0 right now.
1. Arizona Cardinals
Why they can win the division:
Let’s just start with the main point here – this Cardinals squad has all the ingredients to make a big jump in 2020. I expect Kyler Murray to enter the superstar conversation in year two, after impressing with his arm talent and ability to extend plays in a (somewhat controversial) Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Steve Keim managed to unload a bad David Johnson contract and basically acquire an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for a second-round pick. Kenyan Drake now has a full offseason to learn this offense and make himself a major factor once again, following up an outstanding second half of the season once the Cardinals traded for him with Miami. He perfectly fits into this offense with a lot East-West based rushing from shotgun sets and his involvement in the pass game, including those quick throws as an extension of the rushing attack. Arizona’s defense should be a lot better with run-stoppers being added in the draft that fit their 3-4 base front with Utah’s Leki Fotu and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence, since they can stay in those packages against the other teams in their division running a lot of 12 and 21 personnel probably. Add to that a do-it-all player with ridiculous range and overall athleticism in Isaiah Simmons at eight overall, plus all the other guys being in their second year under DC Vance Joseph. I love Budda Baker as a missile from his safety spot and I think some of the other young guys on that unit will take a step forward, like second-year corner Byron Murphy, who I talked about last week. Now let’s get to rest of the West – every other team in that division has some issues. The 49ers are facing the objects of a potential Super Bowl hangover and some limitations with Jimmy G at the helm. The Seahawks have question marks on the edge on either side of the ball with Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell fighting for the starting gig at right tackle and Jadeveon Clowney still on the open market, with a bunch of draft picks these last couple of years having to step up. And the Rams had one of the worst O-lines in football last season and they lost some pieces on defense. The Cardinals already gave all these teams issues in 2019 and have now added pieces that were clearly missing when last matching up against each other.
Why they could finish last again:
Most importantly, I am still not completely sold on the Cardinals offensive line, with D.J. Humphries being signed to a rather expensive deal as a below-average left tackle, third-rounder Josh Jones – while earning a late first-round grade from me – still needing an overhaul on his footwork before he can slide in at right tackle and guard Justin Pugh finally having played a full 16 games for the first time since 2015 last season. NFL coaches had a lot of time to study Kliff Kingsbury’s Air-Raid offense, which when you break it down is pretty simplistic in the amount of schemes they run. Yes, he diversified it a little as last season went along, going under center and running some pro-style rushing plays, but at its core, you can learn how to create some issues for all those mesh concepts and spread sets. As far as the Cardinals defense goes, it is more about pieces than proven commodities. Patrick Peterson is seemingly on the decline, they are thin in the secondary and could Chandler Jones follow soon, after he has been one of the most underrated pass-rushers in the league for a while now? You are staring the reigning NFC champs in the eyes, a team that was a few inches away from earning a playoff bye and another squad that went to the Super Bowl just two years ago. This is probably the best division in the entire league.
I still believe the 49ers have done enough to repeat as division champs, re-tooling for all the losses they have suffered this offseason. However, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals earning a wildcard spot. While I believe in the Seahawks quarterback and the Rams head coach respectively to not allow their teams to not have throwaway seasons, I also see enough issues with those squads to make me believe the Cardinals could have the second-best year of anybody in the West. To me they are pretty clearly the best of these eight teams, because they have a young phenom at quarterback, stars at pretty much every position, a different type of system around them and what I’d like to call “juice” coming into 2020.
2. Detroit Lions
Why they can win the division:
Matt Stafford is back healthy and when he was in the lineup last season, this was a team that defeated the Eagles, Chargers and only didn’t finish the job against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs because of some crazy stuff going on late. The veteran QB stood at 19 touchdowns compared to five picks and was playing at a near-MVP type level. However, Detroit’s identity will be built on the run game with re-investments in the offensive line as well as adding D’Andre Swift to form a dynamic one-two punch with him and Kerryon Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones may be the most underrated receiving duo to go with Danny Amendola as a tough guy in the slot and T.J. Hockenson coming into year two as a top-ten pick a year ago, having shown flashes when he was healthy. The defense is finally starting to take shape with third-overall Jeffrey Okudah as an elite corner prospect being added to an underrated secondary, Jamie Collins being a chess piece in the front seven after already having worked well with Matt Patricia and some young guys up front trying to prove themselves to go with the versatile Trey Flowers. Maybe more importantly than the Lions themselves – Nobody else got that much better and none of the other three really stand out to me. Other than the Vikings probably – who had the advantage of making a record-breaking 15 selections – the Lions might have had the best draft within the division. Thanks to that last-place schedule, they get to face the Redskins in the East (instead of Eagles & Cowboys) and Cardinals in the West, who I just talked about taking a step forward, but are still a better draw than the reigning conference champions or possibly having to travel to Seattle. I believe that new regime in Detroit has finally built an identity on both sides of the ball with the heavy investments in the run game and back-seven on defense. Winning ten games might earn you a division title, if everybody plays each other tough.
Why they could finish last again:
Can these guys finally stay healthy? Matt Stafford to my surprise played a full 16 games in eight straight years before last season, but a lot of that had to do with his toughness to fight through pain and he had major issues with that shoulder early on in his career before basically breaking his back after putting the team on it for the last decade. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 of 32 possible starts and he has never carried the ball more than 118 times a season. Their receiving corp has been banged up quite a bit too. More glaring even – how will all these additions of former Patriots players work out? Can Matt Patricia build a New England 2.0 in Michigan or is he just bringing in players he knows will listen to him and the way he wants things to be done? Detroit could also rely on a lot of rookies to be immediate impact players – possibly two new starting guards on offense, running back D’Andre Swift probably sharing the load with Kerryon, Jeffrey Okudah having to immediately become their CB1 and Julian Okwara being asked to become a much more consistent player if they give him major snaps. And I recently talked about how their uncertainty at punter could be an issue for their ball-control, defense-minded style of play. They also have an early bye (week five), which I’m never a big fan of, after facing the Bears, Packers, Cardinals and Saints, which probably includes three playoff teams. If Chicago can get any competent QB play, all these teams should be highly competitive.
I don’t think any team in this division wins more than ten games. Unfortunately I don’t see the Lions go over that mark themselves either. The Packers won’t come out victorious in so many close games (8-1 in one-possession affairs), the Vikings have lost a few proven commodities and look for young talent to immediately replace those and the Bears still have a quarterback competition going on. So if Detroit can do any better than just split the season series with those three teams, I see them finishing above .500, but ten wins is the ceiling for me. In terms of the competition inside the division, the Lions may be my number one team in this conversation, but I see a much clearer path to things crashing down for Matt Patricia and them having another disappointing season than I do with the Cardinals. No team in this division may finish below that 8-8 mark.
3. Miami Dolphins
Why they can win the division:
When you ask the general public, the Buffalo Bills right now are the favorites to win the AFC East, but they haven’t done so since 1995 and they still have to prove they really are that team. The Patriots lost several pieces on defense and Tom Brady of course, which probably leads them to starting a quarterback, who over his four career pass attempts has thrown more touchdowns to the opposing team than to his own. The Jets are still building up that roster, with GM Joe Douglas trying to plant seeds on burnt earth, and they face a BRUTAL schedule. So Miami has a lot of things going in their favor for an organization that I believe in what they are trying to build. Depending on what happens at quarterback, you could have a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was by far the best inside the division in several key categories last season and/or Tua Tagovailoa, who had one of the most prolific careers we have seen from anybody in the SEC. They added at least two new starters on the O-line, they now have one of the premiere cornerback trios in the league with the all-time highest paid player at the position in Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene to go with Xavien Howard and with some added beef up front, they are finally looking a lot like what Brian Flores had in New England. DeVante Parker really broke out over the second half of 2019 and Miami should have a much better rushing attack because of the additions up front and two quality committee backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida being added. They have two other young pass-catchers ready to break out this upcoming season in tight-end Mike Gesicki and a UDFA receiver from a year ago in Preston Williams. Whenever Tua’s name is called upon, he will be a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s horizontal passing game.
Why they could finish last again:
As much as I like what I see from this entire organization, it is probably just a year too early for Miami. So many young players could be thrown into the fire and a lot of them I look at as needing that experience – 18th overall pick Austin Jackson (USC) is more of a developmental tackle still with his footwork and hand-placement issues, 30th overall pick Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn) has only played cornerback for two years and was bailed out by his athletic tools at times, third-rounder Brandon Jones has to develop more of a feel in deep coverage and at least one more rookie lineman will likely start for them. Even outside of this year’s draft class, they already had several players on their roster that are still moving towards their prime. Whether you look at last year’s first-rounder Christian Wilkins, a lot of second- and third-year pass-catchers or their young linebackers outside of Kyle Van Noy. The Bills are entering year four of that turn-around under Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, the Patriots still have the greatest coach of all time and will be a tough matchup solely based on that and the Jets at least have people playing for their jobs, plus a very talented young quarterback I still believe in. As much as I doubt Adam Gase, as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get mono again, the offense should at least be competent, and the defense could potentially have a top-five player at every level with All-Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams, an 85-million dollar linebacker in C.J. Mosley and my number one prospect in last year’s draft on the interior D-line with Quinnen Williams.
As I mentioned before, the Bills are the front-runners in this division for me. As much respect as I have for Bill Belichick, I haven’t seen enough from Jarrett Stidham to make me a believer and he shrunk in some big moments at Auburn. The Jets to me could be a lot better than they were in 2019 and still go 6-10 just because of the type of schedule they are up against. So the Dolphins to me could easily finish anywhere from second to fourth, depending on how some of the players on that roster progress. I wouldn’t bet on them actually making the playoffs, but they could absolutely be a pain in the butt for some of the better teams in the AFC and in 2021 they might be the pick here.
4. Los Angeles Chargers
Why they can win the division:
First and foremost, this Chargers defense is absolutely loaded with no real hole that you can point to. Derwin James is back healthy after a first-team All-Pro rookie campaign, Chris Harris Jr. comes in to make this secondary one the elite units in the NFL to go with two more Pro Bowlers among it and they have some guys I expect to break out like Jerry Tillery, Drue Tranquill and Nasir Adderley. In terms of having matchup pieces and a versatile pass rush to challenge Kansas City, nobody in the league may be on the same level as these guys. Offensively, Ihave talked about how the left tackle spot is concern for L.A. with a battle between Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins for the starting job, but the other four spots are as good as they have been in a while, acquiring Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner via trade, signing a top five right tackle in Bryan Bulaga and getting Mike Pouncey back healthy. Tyrod Taylor can steer the ship and even if Justin Herbert is thrown into the fire – which I wouldn’t recommend – they have the skill-position players and willingness to run the ball to take pressure off those guys. While the Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters from a year ago, this wouldn’t be the first time we saw a Super Bowl champion have some issues the following season and as much as we want to hype up the Broncos and Raiders, both their quarterbacks (and other players of course as well) have a lot to prove still. Outside of KC, the Chargers likely have the smallest changes to what they do other than moving on from Philip Rivers and we saw that formula work the year prior, when they challenged Kansas City until the very end for the division crown and the conference’s top seed potentially. While they probably would have liked to bring in Tom Brady over the offseason, the fact they decided against signing Cam Newton to a roster that is ready to win right now, shows you the confidence they have in that quarterback room.
Why they could finish last again:
I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, but the Chargers will probably have the worst quarterback in the division in 2020. And their starting left tackle could be the worst in the entire league. As good as their defense will probably be, you can not consistently win games in which your offense doesn’t put up 20+ points in the league today – especially when all these teams in their division have spent so much on acquiring offensive firepower these last couple of years. I believe all three of their division rivals got better this offseason and the Chargers spent their top draft pick (sixth overall) on a young quarterback, who might not even help them win games this season. As I already mentioned, Kansas City brings back almost their entire starting lineups and they went 12-4 despite Mahomes seemingly having his knee cap facing the sideline while laying on his back. I have uttered my thoughts on Denver several times now, which you can read up on later. As for Las Vegas’ new team, they did start last season 6-4 and just heavily invested into their two major issues – wide receiver and linebacker. And while I don’t like to talk about it – injuries have been a huge issue for this Chargers team in recent years and I don’t really know what it is even, but I can’t assume that they all of a sudden can stay healthy.
In terms of talent on the roster outside of the quarterback position, you could make a pretty compelling argument that the Chargers are ahead of all the other teams on this list. That’s the reason they have a pretty high floor of finishing around .500 and if everything works out, they could absolutely be a playoff contender. However, for this exercise in particular, I believe their upside is capped by what they have under center. Tyrod Taylor can be a top-20 quarterback in the NFL this season and in terms of upside, Justin Herbert has all the tools to become a difference-maker once he steps on the field, but they don’t have the explosiveness the Chiefs or the Broncos have for that matter. With so much continuity on a team that has the best player in the entire league, I can’t go against the Chiefs and in the end we are evaluating the chances to actually win the division.
5. Washington Redskins
Why they can win the division:
These guys are very reminiscent of the 49ers with their defensive line, in terms of having invested a lot of high draft picks into the unit these last couple of years and now with that second overall pick bringing in a true stud from Ohio State – this time in Chase Young. When you look at all those guys up front – with the Bama boys patrolling the middle, Matt Ioannidis capable of moving around the front, Montez Sweat looking to break out in year two and Ryan Kerrigan still being there as a productive veteran – they will wreak some havoc this season. Ron Rivera could finally bring some structure to this organization and help them turn it around on defense with the addition of an old companion in Thomas Davis, plus some high-upside players like Reuben Foster and Fabian Moreau looking to prove themselves. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a very underwhelming rookie campaign, but he clearly wasn’t ready to be out there and found himself in a bad situation in terms of the support system around him. I like a lot of their young skill-position players the front office has surrounded him with, when you look at Terry McLaurin trying to become a young star in this league, who produced despite shaky quarterback play last season, Kelvin Harmon and Antonio Gandy-Golden being two big-bodied targets I liked these last two drafts, Derrius Guice hopefully finally being able to stay healthy to lead this backfield and this year’s third-round pick Antonio Gibson being a chess piece that you can manufacture touches for. Somebody I forgot to mention in this discussion recently is Steven Sims Jr., who is a jitterbug with the ball in his hands. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner will implement a system that should make life easier on his second-year signal-caller as well, while relying heavily on the run game.
Why they could finish last again:
Haskins is by far the least proven QB of the bunch, with Daniel Jones even being head and shoulders above him in their respective rookie seasons. No pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin had any major production to speak. Counting on a 37-year old Thomas Davis to not only be a leader for them, but also make plays on the field, could create issues, and Washington lost some pieces in the secondary. This offseason is a challenge for any team, that is looking to implement a new system on each side of the ball, but I think especially for a motivator like Rivera, who can give his squad a heartbeat and push them to success, not being there in person with those guys will hurt. Most importantly however, this division to me will be a two-man race between the Eagles and Cowboys – as it has been for a while now. They both will likely have top ten quarterbacks, better receiving corps, better offensive lines and more experienced defenses. The Giants may not blow anybody away coming into 2020, but looking at the two matchups from last year between them and the Redskins, Big Blue beat them 24-3 the first time around, when Daniel Jones threw one touchdown compared to two interceptions and then he diced them up for five TDs and no picks in week 16. The one area Washington would have had the clear upper hand was with their front-four, but New York just invested a lot of draft capital into their O-line to prevent that. Just go through the Redskins’ schedule and show me more than six wins. I dare you.
These last two sentences really say it all. Even if Philly and Dallas split the season series and Washington can get a game off either one of them, it will be tough to turn around this squad as quickly as this season – with reduced practice time and team activities – to a point where they can finish above both of them. Both of them could easily win double-digit games in 2020 and while I think the Redskins are on the right track if Haskins looks more like the Ohio State version of himself, other than their defensive line, no unit for them is ready to compete for the division quite yet. Just going through their schedule in an objective manner, it is tough to find any lay-ups and say Washington has some baseline of wins they count on. To not have them any lower than this is more due to the respect for Riverboat Ron and how high I was on a lot of the guys they drafted recently.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
Why they can win the division:
I was going back and forth between my number six and seven teams, because the Jaguars are projected to pick first overall come next April for a reason – they did lose a lot of pieces. However, to me it came down to the fact that the AFC South might be won at 9-7 or 10-6 and this coaching staff actually has to win to keep their jobs. There is a lot noise about the Colts, but when you go back to last season, Philip Rivers was a turnover machine with serious questions about his arm strength. Bill O’Brien made some very questionable decisions for Houston and Tennessee is counting on a formula that is built on a 250-banger running the ball 25+ times and Ryan Tannehill finally repeating a career year, as they are coming off an AFC title game appearance. As far as Jacksonville goes, Gardner Minshew was the highest-graded rookie quarterback according to PFF and altogether I would have put him second only behind Kyler Murray. D.J. Chark broke out as one of the young star receivers and I had a first-round grade on Colorado’s Laviska Shenault if he can be healthy, because his talent is off the charts. I think the O-line would have benefitted from another tackle to kick Cam Robinson inside to guard, but those guys are some road-graders to make the run game work. Defensively the only real contributor from that Sacksonville group a couple of years ago who actually wants to be there is Myles Jack, but I really like their young duo off the edge in first-rounders Josh Allen last year and now K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU). There are some questions about the back-end, but they were built front-to-back with a lot of zone coverage behind it and depending on the development of ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, they can roll away from him matching up with the opposing team’s number one receiver. Avoiding some of the better AFC squads altogether is pretty sweet as well, to go with facing no playoff team from last year outside their division until the middle of November.
Why they could finish last again:
I’m just not sure if all of these players are ready to fight for that coaching staff and organization. Two of their remaining veterans (Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue) have openly talked about how they want to be traded, they only have a few actually proven commodities on that entire roster and with the way they have unloaded big cap numbers, they have set themselves up for a true rebuild potentially, as they are expected to be in the Trevor Lawrence-Justin Fields sweepstakes come next April. Even if they can get a few breaks and the division is up for grabs, does this organization even want to win this season? If not for the injury to Jacoby Brissett in the middle of the season, all three other teams in that division would have almost certainly finished above .500 and the Colts are actually the team that improved by far the most among them. That Texans, who have actually won the South four of the last five years, including last season, may be the smallest challenge and still sweep Jacksonville. Vegas rarely misses completely and the Jaguars right now are the odds-on favorite to pick first overall come next April, with an NFL-low OveUnder of 4.5 wins on the season. And as favorable as the early portion of their schedule looks like right, check out this eight-game stretch after their week seven bye – at Chargers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Ravens. Ouch. They might go winless over that period.
The Jaguars to me are a very interesting team, because I believe they have accumulated a bunch of young talent, which gets lost a little when you see all the names that aren’t there anymore. There is a lot to like about this roster, when you look at what these players could develop into, but that doesn’t mean they will have success this year already. The Colts have the best 53 currently in the division (or 55 now), the Texans have the best quarterback and the Titans are coming off an AFC Championship game appearance. Gardner Minshew could make this kind of a tough decision if they end up picking anywhere after first overall and I think some of those other kids will put up pretty good numbers, but they are still pretty clearly fourth in the South as for now.
7. Carolina Panthers Why they can win the division:
Nobody knows for sure what Matt Rhule and his new coaching staff will throw at them. Joe Brady gets to work with Teddy Bridgewater once again, who he already coached in New Orleans – so there will be familiarity for him in this system and they already “speak the same language”. That young receiving corp with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, free agency addition Robby Anderson and even an up-and-coming tight-end in Ian Thomas is pretty underrated actually, plus of course they have one of the truly elite weapons out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who is probably set to break his own RB reception record once again. The Panthers defense-only draft has brought them a monster in the middle in Derrick Brown (Auburn), a really talented edge rusher in Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) on the opposite of last year’s rookie stud Brian Burns, a super-rangy safety with linebacker size in Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), what I think is a starting corner in Troy Pride Jr. (Notre Dame) and some other pieces in the secondary. The talent is clearly there and now you bring in a scheme that is probably going to be unique for the NFL level as well, when you look at that 3-3-5 Baylor ran under Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. As much as we want to praise our legends of the game, the quarterbacks of the two front-runners in this division will be 41 and 43 years old respectively and let’s not forget that Atlanta started out last season 1-7.
Why they could finish last again:
Especially this offseason, without certainty if there will be anything like training camp or even a real preseason, that completely new staff with new systems they are trying to teach will certainly have some growing pains. Bridgewater has been a top-20 starting QB maybe one year of his career and even when he was applauded for the way he filled in for Drew Brees last season, he finished dead-last in intended air yards among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. How will that mesh with a lot of vertical targets around him? When he has those guys running free on slants and dig routes, the ball will get there, but will he be willing to throw that deep post or give his guys a chance on go-balls? Defensively they are counting on a lot of young players and they have nobody to even come close to replacing Luke Kuechly, as well as making the switch to an unproven scheme possibly, if they actually use some of those 3-3-5 looks coming over from Baylor. When you look at Rhule’s track-record, it always took him until year two to show improvement and then in that third season is when those teams can really make some noise. And that was in the AAC and Big 12 respectively. Now he is in the NFC South with a team that just went 13-3 in the Saints and a Bucs squad that already was 7-9 and lost six of those games by one score, only because despite finishing fifth in takeaways, they ranked in the bottom five in turnover differential due to easily leading the league with 41 giveaways. That should get a lot better with Tom Brady coming in, who has never even quite thrown half of Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions in any of his 20 years in the league. Even the Falcons – for as poorly as they started last season – went 6-2 after really coming together and making some changes in their bye week last season.
The Panthers are clearly the most unproven team in this division. While new systems that haven’t been scouted yet certainly have an advantage in terms of game-planning early on, especially in this offseason with heavily limited live reps most likely, that might equal a net minus. You have to root for a guy like Teddy Bridgewater and the way he has worked his way up to a starting spot again, but I just don’t look at him as a surefire franchise signal-caller. The other three teams in the South all have top ten quarterbacks in the league in my opinion and much more continuity around them. Until the Panthers finally get to their bye week at the start of December, I don’t see them winning more than four of those twelve games. At that point they may have their eyes on a different goal already, if Teddy B isn’t the clear answer under center.
8. Cincinnati Bengals
Why they can win the division:
We’re not that far away from 2015, when the Bengals won the AFC North with a 12-4 record as the fifth year in a row making the playoffs. Since then this is the first time I feel like there really is change happening with this team. Marvin Lewis was replaced by a young Zac Taylor, trying to prove himself to the league, they drafted Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow first overall to replace as average a quarterback as we have had over the last decade in Andy Dalton and the front office finally spent some money in free agency. While you would think a quarterback going first overall usually comes into a situation, where he is devoid of talent around him, Cincinnati suddenly has one of the better group of skill-position players in the entire league, assuming A.J. Green is back healthy. Tyler Boyd is a stud in the slot, who will be Burrow’s version of Justin Jefferson, a 50-50 ball specialist in second-round pick Tee Higgins (Clemson) matches perfectly with Burrow’s expertise of winning with ball-placement and if they get anything from former first-rounder John Ross at least as a decoy with his speed, that’s a plus. I expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leader’s in running back receptions and be more effective in space with those receivers around him as well. The signings the Bengals have made on defense gives them a lot more talent and complements very well what they already had. D.J. Reader is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league and frees everybody up along the front, they completely overhauled that linebacker group, which was a major issue these last couple of years, they brought in a starting CB2 and nickel from Minnesota to pair up with William Jackson III, who is ready to announce himself as one of the best corners in football, and Von Bell is a great match with the rangy free safety Jessie Bates.
Why they could finish last again:
As talented as all those guys throwing, catching and running the ball may be, it all starts with what’s happening up front and the Bengals offensive line is still in transition. They could have two of the worst starters in the league at both guard spots and right tackle once again, with the prior ones close to reaching that bust status and Bobby Hart still somehow having a starting job. As great as Joe Burrow was last year at LSU and how clean his evaluation was, how much better than Andy Dalton will he be right away, especially going up against those scary defensive fronts inside his division? Defensively they could easily have six new starters, which obviously can be looked at as a positive sign, considering they allowed 20+ points in all but two games last season, but there is also a lack of continuity and reduced time to fit all those pieces together. Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t really proven anything yet and they will be facing a massacre of a schedule, with three occasions of back-to-back road games and while three of their final four games of the season are at home, they will face the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens, to go with a trip to Houston in-between. If they don’t beat the Chargers in the season-opener, they probably don’t get that first W until week four against the Jaguars and then they have to hope they can sneak out another one until their bye week. Baltimore is tied with Kansas City for the highest projected win total with reigning MVP coming into just his third season, Pittsburgh is favored to make the playoffs with Big Ben back under center and Cleveland was the offseason favorite in 2019, while fielding an even better roster this year.
I feel bad for putting this team last, because I thought Joe Burrow was the top quarterback and definitely worthy of that number one pick and the Bengals finally spent big money in free agency to retool the defense. To me this is less about them than the Ravens, who just were the number one overall seed in the playoffs at 14-2 and haven’t done anything other than get better themselves, a Steelers team that made a run at the playoffs with the worst quarterback play in the league now getting Ben back and a Browns roster that is among the top ten league-wide in most people’s opinion. Still, there is a lot to like about this team at the skill-positions, which is probably behind only Cleveland in terms all the weapons they have, some young standouts on defense and hope that all of this brings a fresh breath of air.
If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece (with video clips) - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/06/16/nfl-teams-most-likely-to-go-from-worst-to-first-in-2020/
You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9kCcuPobNU
Defending the Draft: Green Bay Packers
submitted by nootfloosh to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]
The Green Bay Packers surprised just about everyone (except James Jones) with their successful campaign under first year HC Matt LaFleur. Before the season, he hired former Jaguars OC Nathaniel Hackett to fill the same role in his offense, and he elected to keep DC Mike Pettine who served in that capacity the year before under former HC Mike McCarthy.
The team ended the year 13-3 on the regular season, including a complete sweep of the division, plus a win against the Seahawks in the division round of the playoffs. Despite their success, there were many critics who considered them to be the worst 13-3 team in NFL history. The Packers were accused of "winning ugly" and not resembling a true contender. Those chickens would come home to roost in San Francisco as they were no match for the 49ers in the NFC championship game. The team gave a horribly flat performance on defense, plus an offense that had no answer to San Francisco's elite defensive front 7.
Even though they didn't achieve their Cinderella story, the Packers would go into the offseason with much of the starting roster returning intact for a chance at a second run in 2020. The roster is mostly comprised of players 27 or younger, and only three starters needed to be replaced from the prior season. The team is banking on the growth and development of their young players to help propel the team to that next level. Their upcoming schedule will be much more challenging than 2019's on paper, but working on building more consistency on both sides of the ball will hopefully produce a better overall "team" than the one which overachieved a year ago.
2020 FREE AGENCY
This offseason saw the end of the road for two longtime Packers in Green Bay with RT Bryan Bulaga (EYE-WAH) and ILB Blake Martinez (aka pussyfucker69). They signed deals elsewhere after giving the team many years of consistent on field play. Replacing them will not come easy. Jimmy Graham, on the other hand, will not be greatly missed. His best games of the season came in the playoffs after two seasons of dropped passes, lazy routes, and non-existent blocking. (But at least he was better than Martellus Bennett.) The only other significant loss was Tramon Williams who played lights out as the nickel corner last year. At 36 years old, it is more likely the team will go with younger and cheaper alternatives to fill his role next season, but a return to the team isn't out of the question.
The contracts signed by Martinez and Bulaga, along with OLB Kyler Fackrell, should mean the Packers are in line to be rewarded three compensatory choices in 2021 in the 4th, 5th, and 7th rounds respectively. Bulaga's compensation is capped at a 5th rounder due to being a 10 year veteran.
* = former starter
|Player ||Position ||New Team ||Contract |
|Bryan Bulaga * ||RT ||Chargers ||3 yr / $30 mil |
|Blake Martinez * ||ILB ||Giants ||3 yr / $30 mil |
|Jimmy Graham * ||TE ||Bears ||2 yr / $16 mil |
|Kyler Fackrell ||OLB ||Giants ||1 yr / $4.6 mil |
|B.J. Goodson ||ILB ||Browns ||1 yr / $2.4 mil |
|Dan Vitale ||FB ||Patriots ||1 yr / $1.3 mil |
|Jason Spriggs ||LT ||Bears ||1 y $825 K |
|Geronimo Allison ||WR ||Lions ||1 yr / $800 K |
|Ibraheim Campbell ||S ||Titans ||1 yr / $750 K |
|Tramon Williams ||CB ||UFA ||NA |
|Jared Veldheer ||RT ||UFA ||NA |
The Packers used the $8 mil in cap savings they got back from releasing Jimmy Graham to add Christian Kirksey (ILB - Browns), Ricky Wagner (OT - Lions), and Devin Funchess (WR - Colts) once they were released from their former teams. Kirksey is an athletic ILB with 4.55 speed and playmaking ability, but he has missed substantial time due to injuries recently and only played in 9 games the last two years. Wagner has had one brilliant season with the Ravens in 2017 followed by two average ones with the Lions, but a starter is a starter. Funchess is a former 2nd round pick and still only 25, so hopefully he can finally reach the potential he has flashed now that he has Rodgers at the helm.
They did not sign a TE to replace Graham because the team will be using returning players instead. The favored starter is 2019 3rd round pick Jace Sternberger, after he missed most of his rookie season due to injuries. He is accompanied along with the returning ageless veteran Marcedes "Big Dog" Lewis (who is now famously known as the only 1st round player Rodgers has thrown a TD pass to).
By making these moves and essentially locking up their starters pre-draft, they allowed themselves some flexibility with their approach to how they would spend their picks.
*= projected starter
|Player ||Position ||2019 Team ||Contract |
|Christian Kirksey * ||ILB ||Browns ||2 yr / $13 mil |
|Ricky Wagner * ||RT ||Lions ||2 yr / $11 mil |
|Devin Funchess ||WR ||Colts ||1 yr / $2.5 mil |
|Reggie Begelton ||WR ||CFL ||3 yr / $2.3 mil |
|Treyvon Hester ||DT ||Redskins ||1 yr / $850 K |
|Gerald Willis III ||DT ||Dolphins ||1 yr / $675 K |
|Jamal Davis II ||OLB ||Dolphins ||1 yr / $675K |
|Mason Crosby ||K ||Packers ||3 yr / $13 mil |
|Marcedes Lewis ||TE ||Packers ||1 yr / $2.3 mil |
|Tyler Ervin ||RB/RS ||Packers ||1 yr / $1 mil |
|Will Redmond ||S ||Packers ||1 yr / $750 K |
2020 NFL DRAFT
1 (26) - JORDAN LOVE (QB - UTAH ST) \
pick acquired from Houston thru Miami for #30 and #133 overall*
The Packers shocked everyone by passing on a player who may have helped the team right away when they instead traded up for Utah St. QB Jordan Love. This has been an endless point of criticism and even ridicule since the draft ended. But this pick made a lot of sense at its core. I go into much greater detail in regards to this pick elsewhere, but here are the main points that led to this selection:
- The team was unable to move up for a WR they were targeting and didn't want to reach for the next one down.
- They had a very high grade on Love and expected him to be gone before the #20 pick - he was probably rated higher than any other player in the draft late in round 1.
- In 2017, they considered drafting Deshone Kizer at #33 but ultimately chose CB Kevin King instead. Then in 2019, they had a lot of reported interest in Drew Lock – including an official team visit. However, the Broncos moved up ahead of the Packers in round 2 to take him, so we will never know how interested Green Bay truly was. But there is a clear pattern being established of open interest in top rated QB's.
- In 2020, the Packers made Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts two of their official “visits” in the pre-draft process, once again showing a clear interest in an early round signal caller.
- The Packers do not believe in passing on a high rated player if he is available, especially at QB which is the most important position in the game
"I think it's always kind of been in my DNA that anywhere in the draft, if you have an opportunity to take a quarterback you really think can play, you need to consider it."
-Brian Gutekunst, GM of the Packers
Jordan Love is a 6'4 and 224 lb QB with large 10.5" hands and a rocket for an arm. He is a self-described playmaker, which is evident when you watch him on tape. At Utah St in 2018, Love put on a clinic, throwing for 3500 yards, 32 TD's, and only 6 INT's. This put him on the radar as a potential top 10 or even top 5 prospect heading into the 2019 season. Unfortunately, after a coaching change and losing 9 offensive starters, Love saw a major drop in his numbers (3200 yards, 20 TD's, and 17 INT's). Love started to develop some bad habits such as staring receivers down and forcing risky throws, which is what led to the spike in turnovers.
However, it needs to be mentioned that Jordan Love put the team on his shoulders all season. He frequently had limited choices available but to either try and make a play or take the sack. Had he not been dealing with this adversity, he probably would have heard his name called much sooner and the Packers would not have had a shot at him in the late 1st round.
"He’s not a bad decision-maker. That was one of my biggest pet peeves in the draft process was people calling that kid a bad decision-maker. He’s not. He’s a kid that’s played with nobody around him and he was competitive and he was trying to win football games. Did he force throws? Absolutely. Did he have to force throws? Absolutely. You didn’t see bad decision-making on ’18 tape, when he threw 32 touchdowns and six picks. You never heard those numbers brought up the whole process. All you heard was 20 touchdowns, 17 picks. Like, nobody ever went back and talked about ’18….. He is the only QB I’ve ever scouted who will be throwing into bigger windows in the NFL than he threw into in college.”
-Jim Nagy, Senior Bowl director and former NFL scout
Numbers aside, there are glimpses and flashes of his game that make you swear you are watching Aaron Rodgers himself. He flourishes when the play breaks down displaying the ability to throw off various platforms to keep the play alive. Love has that same gunslinger mentality that Patrick Mahomes had at TX Tech – no throw is impossible in their minds. And when I say that Jordan Love didn’t have any help, it isn’t just making an excuse. He was essentially the only threat Utah St. had on offense in 2019, so Love took it on his shoulders to will the team forward, similar to other top picks like Daniel Jones at Duke and Josh Allen at Wyoming.
As far as his fit with the Packers, clearly they have to like his arm talent and his hand size, along with his experience playing in frigid environments - those are three important boxes that need to be checked if a QB wants to succeed at Lambeau Field. One could argue that of all the QB's in this draft, Love may have the most upside just due to his physical traits but is also the least ready to play. I don't think he could have landed in a better position than on a team built to win championships with a future Hall of Famer to learn from. 2 (62) - AJ DILLON (RB - BCU)
According to Peter King, the Packers were trying to trade up in round 2 for one of two specific WR's. Once Chase Claypool was selected at #49, they stopped calling teams. We can take this to mean that at that point, the Packers felt all the impact players at WR in the draft were gone. The Packers were content to look for other ways they could improve the offense. The team did not want to simply draft a receiver just to say they took one. And that's where AJ Dillon comes in.
Even with the breakout season of Aaron Jones in 2019, there is reason to suspect the Packers view AJ Dillon as the long term primary RB in this offense. Unlike Jones who is a quick and elusive 5’9 and 200 lb RB, Dillon is a north/south runner with surprisingly light feet for his 6'0 and 247 lb frame. He has proven he can withstand the workload of a RB1 posting three 1,000+ yard seasons in college. Similar to Jordan Love, he did it without much of a supporting cast. He led the FBS in the amount of stacked boxes he was facing by a wide margin (46% of the time). He also led the FBS in yards after contact (over 800) because teams knew he was getting the ball but it just didn't matter - he ran it hard just the same. Dillon is best known for his balance and being able to keep himself moving through first contact. He is knocked by evaluators by his lack of presence in the passing game, catching only 21 career passes, but not being asked to do it isn’t the same as not being able to do it. Dillon also has a tendency of not exhibiting the patience to let the play develop, which leads to him missing opportunities for cut back lanes on occasion. These two things are hardly fatal flaws, and he can improve with proper coaching.
But why Dillon, and why Round 2? That seems to be what gets people scratching their heads the most. Well, the Packers love to draft athletes, and as far as RB prospects go Dillon is a rare player. He is bigger than Eddie Lacy and faster than Aaron Jones. Dillon posted the best SPARQ score (97%) among all RB's at the combine, and his speed score (117) was in the 97th percentile. Running 4.53 and jumping 41" should simply not be allowed from a RB who is also 247 lbs. I also believe the front office had Dillon rated extremely high on their board compared to other options at RB. Dillon and Jonathan Taylor (96% SPARQ) had to be the 1a and 1b of this class for the Packers. Gutekunst just can't help himself, he loves size and speed.
The Packers will also be facing a lot of difficult decisions with their group of free agents in 2021, which includes #1 RB Aaron Jones and #2 RB Jamaal Williams. Drafting Dillon makes it so the team can choose to keep one of those two next year, while potentially grooming their long-term starter. Now LaFleur has his own Derrick Henry that will help him run the kind of offense he wants to execute. Short yardage and goalline situations will be a different story in 2020 compared to the struggles a year ago. Frankly, fewer positions are as NFL ready as RB's are, and few of them are as rare of an athletic prospect as Dillon. He is likely going to be a big part of the offense moving forward. Especially in December and January when it is freezing cold and actual football begins. 3 (94) - JOSIAH DEGUARA (TE/HB - CINCINNATI)
The Packers missed on all the WR's that might have made a difference for them, but they were ready to find a pass catcher in an unconventional way. So at pick #94, with only two TE's selected at that point (Cole Kmet and Devin Asiasi), the Packers had their choice of player at the position. It is safe to say the Packers got their preferred one with Josiah Deguara.
This pick was considered a reach by most analysts when it was made, but context is important. Matt LaFleur was the QB coach in Washington in 2010 under Mike Shanahan. That year Chris Cooley, a 6'2 and 250 lb TE/HB, had 77 catches on 126 targets for 849 yards. That position was currently vacant on the Packers depth chart, so it can't be underestimated how integral this role could be going forward as LaFleur continues to shape the team to fit his philosophy.
Josiah Deguara is the perfect player to fill that Chris Cooley (or Kyle Juszczyk) role in this Shanahan-style offense. At only 6'2, Deguara played in-line TE 60% of the time in college because they tried to move him around to take advantage of his versatility. He played TE, HB, FB, and WR at Cincinnati, where he ended his career as the school record holder for catches at the position with 92 catches in 2 years. The former record holder was Travis Kelce, so he is in good company. It also just so happens that Mike Denbrock, the OC for Cincinnati, coached alongside Matt LaFleur at Notre Dame previously - I bet the two discussed together all the ways Deguara could be a factor within the Packers offense.
The main thing that I keep reading about Deguara is how great his character is both on and off the field. The Packers believe strongly in finding players who "carry the G", and Deguara is just a high effort, hard-working, bring-your-lunch-pail-to-work kind of guy that everyone wants to root for. He will play on all the special teams units, learn to play in whatever role the offense asks him to, and he will always give 100% effort. It would be premature to say Josiah Deguara is an impact player as a late 3rd round pick, but he is a wild card who could potentially open this offense up and take it in several new and creative directions.
P.S. LaFleur showed this play during one of his team meetings in 2019 as the prime example of what it means to never give up on a play (he starts at the top of the screen as a blocker, then chases the defender down to make the TD-saving tackle). https://twitter.com/ethanthomthom/status/1254590868507557890?s=19
Six months later, the Packers selected him with the #94 pick. It is clear looking back that Deguara was meant to wear green and gold. LaFleur was more excited about this pick in his post-draft interviews than any other player chosen that weekend. 4 (133) - to Miami
*traded along with #30 overall to move up to #26 for Jordan Love 5 (175) - KAMAL MARTIN (LB - MINNESOTA)
Kamal Martin is one of those LB's that would have been talked about more had he not been battling injuries and been able to compete in the pre-draft functions. Injuries cut his season short to just 8 games, but he still finished with 66 total tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 sack, 2 FF, and 2 INT's - his knack of finding ways to always be around the ball had to stand out to Gutekunst. Jim Nagy, the director of the Senior Bowl, called Martin a top 3 senior LB and a steal for the Packers as a 5th round pick. He has prototypical size for a 3 down LB at 6'3 and 240 lbs along with 34" arms and an 81" wingspan. The Packers scouts estimated that he runs between 4.55 - 4.65 in the 40, but he wasn't able to participate in the drill while recovering from his knee injury.
Martin is a former high school QB, and he uses that experience on the defensive side to help give him a unique perspective of the action in front of him. He lined up at both OLB and ILB at Minnesota and was a playmaker at both positions. And that position versatility is what attracted the Packers to him. He will need to get stronger and play with better pad level, but there is a lot going for Martin as a prospect.
As the first defensive selection in the draft for the Packers, Martin will be given a chance to compete with other young players, such as Oren Burks, Ty Summers, and Curtis Bolton, for a chance to be the #2 ILB next to Christian Kirksey. Burks and Summers are two very athletic guys who have played mostly on special teams, and Bolton was a UDFA last year who made waves in preseason before getting hurt. This group is young, athletic, and horribly inexperienced, making it the most open of all the roster competitions on the team.
Kamal Martin is the definition of a sleeper who could have landed in a fortuitous situation based on the uncertainty surrounding the LB group in Green Bay. He is a proven playmaker who finds ways to get to the ball, and those instincts could serve him well as he fights for a spot. Martin is hoping to follow in the footsteps of Blake Martinez to become an every down starter as a day 3 selection. 6a (192) - JON RUNYAN JR (G/T - MICHIGAN)
*pick acquired from Raiders for WR Trevor Davis
The Packers have had a very positive track record selecting OL on day 3 of the draft. They had three picks to spend in the 6th round, and considering they have veterans with expiring contracts coming up and nothing but UDFA's as depth, they felt it was an area of the team that could use an infusion of new competition. They have a good shot of one of the next three players becoming a starter down the road.
With their first of three IOL choices in round 6, they selected Jon Runyan Jr who comes to the Packers with a great NFL pedigree (his father had a very long and successful career for the Oilers/Titans and Eagles). After being a backup OG for his first few seasons, Jr. made the switch to RT and then LT under the coaching of Ed Warriner who coached Packers center Corey Linsley at Ohio St. Jon Runyan would go on to start 25 games at LT for Michigan over the next 2 years, earning 1st team all-Big 10.
While Runyan is a bit smaller than you would like out of an NFL tackle (6'4 and 306 lbs with 33" arms and a 79" wingspan), his agility and athletic ability were near the top of the draft class. He had the 3rd best 3-cone time at 7.57, and his 40 time of 5.08 was 9th best in the class. His 10 yard split of 1.79 met the threshold that you want for OL by 0.01 (good enough by NFL standards and that's all that matters). Due to his size, Runyan is more of a pass blocker than run blocker at this point in his career. He excels by using his quickness and athleticism to keep up with dangerous pass rushers but sometimes struggles with moving bigger guys back in the ground game.
Runyan will compete at guard, which is what he was announced as during the draft, but his versatility makes him a potential swing tackle and utility guy in the early part of his career. Fortunately he comes from a zone blocking scheme at Michigan, which will help him adjust to the Packers version. A lot will depend on how well he transitions inside and how he makes the jump to the speed and complexity of the NFL. If he can make a similar leap like he made entering his junior season, the future looks very bright for him in the NFL. 6b (208) - JAKE HANSON (C - OREGON)
*pick acquired from Titans for OLB Reggie Gilbert
There is always something to be said when the Packers select a true center in the draft because they rarely do. Elgton Jenkins played 4 different positions at Miss St and JC Tretter played OT before the Packers moved him inside. The only true center Ted Thompson ever drafted was Corey Linsley - an athletically limited and undersized player but a consistent technician who played in a big time program at Ohio St.
Now, Linsley at 28 years old is heading into 2020 as the 6th highest paid member of the team and 3rd highest paid center in the NFL. He is also entering the final year of his contract. Next year is going to be judgment day for many starters on the team, and decisions will need to be made to see who will be offered an extension including David Bakhtiari (LT), Kevin King (CB), Aaron Jones (RB), and Kenny Clark (DT). The Packers may not have the cap space to keep Linsley around beyond this season. The Packers also dislike handing out third contracts to their players who may be starting to head towards the back end of their careers. That means the search to find a successor is part of the plans, and that leads us to this next pick.
Jake Hanson may not have had the flashiest combine (5.5 in the 40 at 6'4 and 303 lbs), but when it comes to centers, it is more about their technique and ability to make the right calls at the line. That being said, he did have 33 reps in the bench press which was #4 among all OL. Hanson comes to Green Bay as a 4 year starter who boasted 49 career starts. He was the anchor of one of the best lines in the country since he first won the job as a true freshman, and Oregon may not have been as successful without him in the middle making sure the assignments were correct.
Hanson plays with an incredible motor, even if he lacks the desired size to compete against linemen one on one, but the Packers' zone system should be able to hide some of those deficiencies. He has strong hands and a sticky grip (which I'm sure will make our division rivals happy), and he works well with guards in double teams. He still needs some fine tuning with his snap placement as he can occasionally misfire out of the shotgun. But as a developmental 6th rounder, Hanson can continue working on those techniques while learning behind one of the best technicians in the game. Not to mention he can use this valuable time on the scout team practicing with Jordan Love. Should the time come when both players are ready to start, they would have already developed a rapport thanks to their time on the practice field together. 6c (209) - SIMON STEPANIAK (G - INDIANA)
With the selection of Simon Stepaniak, the Packers believe they got a player who could have been selected as early as the 4th round had he not tragically torn his ACL last December. Stepaniak is the opposite of Runyan and Hanson - he is a tough-nosed mauler in the run game who likes to pick fights and look for people to punish. He played RG at Indiana, and it is likely with his 32" arms that he may be limited to play interior OL as a pro. His 37 reps (!!!) on the bench press in Indianapolis frequently showed up on tape where he routinely manhandled defenders in one-on-ones and would flatten other guys out on double teams. (The fact he could even do 37 reps while recovering from his surgery is astounding.)
His main issues will be dealing with poor agility when matched up against quicker speed rushers, where relying on his upper body strength alone won't be enough. Despite his athletic shortcomings, Stepaniak allowed a pressure on only 3.3% of passing plays per PFF. With some fine tuning of his game, there is potential that Stepaniak could become the top OL of the three the Packers selected in round 6.
Stepaniak resembles a guard in a power running scheme from 1993, who would rather be out hunting for defenders than settling back and waiting for them to come to him. In a way, this could be a pick for the future direction of the offense, especially after the Packers selected AJ Dillon and Josiah Deguara earlier. This shows a subtle shift in the offense away from 5 WR shotgun formations and hinting more towards pounding the rock to punish the new mold of smallefaster defenses. It makes sense that they would take a gamble on Stepaniak late this year. Even though he may wind up on the PUP/IR list, the Packers liked his talent this late in day 3. 7a (236) - VERNON SCOTT (S - TCU)
*pick acquired from Browns for OG Justin McCray and #244
Who the hell is Vernon Scott?
He was only Dane Brugler's 61st ranked safety out of 62 in the 2020 draft, of course! But really, this is a name that most people just shrugged their shoulders to and probably overlooked. Let me now be the one to introduce you to him. Vernon Scott is a player that is all about two things: versatility and upside.
At 6'2 and 206 lbs, he has the prototype size you are looking for in a modern defensive back. He wasn't invited to the combine, and his pro day was canceled hence why he was invisible to the draft community. His athletic testing will unfortunately remain a mystery, but the Packers estimated he ran a 4.40, which would be outstanding for a player at his size.
Scott was a one year starter at TCU who lined up all over the secondary. He was primarily a key contributor on special teams for all 4 years before taking over as a starter this past season. While Texas WR Devin Duvernay made him look silly in 2019 (seriously, don't watch the tape), Vernon Scott really started to come on towards the end of the year. In the last three games of the season he had 4 total takeaways, a sack, and a TD. He had a particularly strong game against Oklahoma where he made 7 tackles, a fumble recovery, and a 98 yard INT for a TD. He would finish the year with 44 tackles (4th on the team) and 7 PBU's (ranked 3rd).
Where did this sudden playmaking skill come from? Scott moved to the nickel corner role, and he was told to let loose. The Packers are clearly banking that his ability as a slot CB, while also having experience playing the other 4 positions in the secondary, will translate to the NFL and give him an edge to win a roster spot. Not often is a player drafted because of a 3 game stretch, but hey, it is the 7th round so why not? He joins a secondary that is led with Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos but was often exposed when other players such as Will Redmond had to see meaningful snaps. The team also allowed Ibraheim Campbell to walk this offseason who had been with the team for two years. Needless to say, the Packers liked the direction where Vernon Scott’s arrow was pointing, and the more competition in the secondary the better. 7b (242) - JONATHAN GARVIN (OLB - MIAMI)
*pick acquired from Ravens for RB Ty Montgomery
Jonathan "Spider" Garvin comes to Green Bay with a nice resume from his last two years at Miami. He is an impressive physical specimen at 6'4 and 263 lbs with 34" arms and an 80" wingspan. While his 4.82 probably didn't help him, when you watch the tape his explosiveness jumps off the screen - literally. His 36" vertical was #1 among edge rushers and DL at the combine.
Garvin put up 60 tackles, 17 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, and 5 pass breakups his sophomore season (not to mention a fumble returned for a TD) while playing across from Joe Jackson. That sort of production tends to get a player noticed, and so his junior season in 2019 was all about fighting for whatever he could get while dealing with the extra attention. Garvin would enjoy much of his time fighting off double- and triple-teams in 2019, which caused a dip in his overall numbers from the year prior. Garvin ended the season with just 37 tackles, 9 TFL, 5 sacks, 4 hurries, and 2 FF. However, his pressure rate of 14.8% was still 5th best in the ACC according to PFF.
The drop in production along with the 4.82 in the 40 is likely why he didn't hear his name called in the early part of day 3. Even so, at his size, length, and explosiveness, he could find a home as part of the rotation at OLB in Green Bay. Kyler Fackrell played over 400 snaps on defense as the #3 OLB last year while 1st round pick Rashan Gary played 245. Now that Fackrell left to join the Giants in free agency, Gary will presumably be in line to pick up the snaps left behind which still allows enough opportunities for Garvin to find a role as a situational pass rusher on defense if he can win the #4 spot.
Garvin comes to Green Bay with very similar measurables as Za'darius Smith. He has the strength to hold up on the edge but also the explosiveness off the line to get up field to rush the passer. Garvin has a lot of tools to work with, and having both the Smith's as mentors could go a long way as far as how he learns to master them. The OLB depth has a lot of juice on the team for once, and Garvin makes this group even more exciting. 7 (244) - to Cleveland
*traded along with OG Justin McCray for #236
OVERALL DRAFT EVALUATION
The Packers were in an interesting position heading into the draft, coming in as a 13-3 team without any major holes on the roster. All the starting spots were filled ahead of time, which already put this draft class at a disadvantage compared to other teams in the league. The rookies may not be relied upon to start or play much in 2020, barring an injury to someone ahead on the depth chart. It isn't too farfetched to think that the Packers could have selected 9 completely different players and would have received the same level of impact from this class year 1.
That isn't to say some of the members of this class can't find a role as part of a rotation - I expect Dillon, Deguara, and Martin to all get involved - but there isn't a need to have any of these guys start right out of the gate. Which can be a good thing. It reminds me of the old school days where rookies yielded to veterans and had to bust their asses to earn playing time, rather than being handed a job as soon as they walked through the door.
At the end of the day, regardless of what happens with any other player, this draft will ultimately be judged based on the success or failure of one single player: Jordan Love. The legacy (and possibly the future employment) of GM Brian Gutekunst is also now firmly tied to this selection. The coaching chops of Matt LaFleur will also be thoroughly put to the test to see how he develops. A lot is riding on getting this one right.
But in the end, because Jordan Love plays the most important position in the game, if he becomes a successful starter, this whole draft is a win. For now all he needs to do is focus on being the best scout team QB the Packers have had the luxury to have on the team since Aaron Rodgers himself. Nothing will be easily given to Love. Proving to the organization that he is worthy of being the heir apparent to Aaron will greatly depend on how he prepares himself for what comes next.
We drafted him in the first round, we certainly think he has that kind of talent. But that’s not enough in the National Football League. You’ve got to work, you’ve got to earn it, you’ve got to become a good enough player. Again, we have one of the best to ever lace them up, and we’re shooting for championships as long as he’s here, and we expect him to be here for quite a while. -Brian Gutekunst
ChazSpearmint's Top 53 Big Board
submitted by chazspearmint to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]
Hey guys. I posted my three-round mock a couple days back and it went pretty well. In doing so, I came with a big board and explanations for each player and I thought I would share to supplement it. It's a Top 53 big board; that number has nothing to do with NFL rosters or anything, it's just that's the point that I had to cut it off. I wanted to stop at an organic point that made sense. I'll also add comps to current NFL players for the most part.
- Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State: What is there to say? He's the most dominant edge rusher I've seen in some time and has elite pass-rushing traits to pair with elite level production on the biggest stage in college. I guess he's a little one-dimensional at times but if I could just casually jog around opposing OTs, I wouldn't worry about my number of moves either. I'm not overthinking this. Pro Comp: Danielle Hunter
- Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson: In the modern NFL, off-ball linebackers really aren't at a premium position and don't tend to be terribly difficult to replace in terms of production. That is not the case with Isaiah Simmons. A nightmare to block, create separation from, break a tackle from, or just generally gameplan against, I've never seen a defensive player at his size do what he can do athletically. I think he's a once-in-a-generation type of player and we should appreciate him while we have him. Pro Comp: I'm not even going to try
- Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State: Jeff is one of the most pro-ready CBs I've seen come out in a while. Some have gotten on about his 40 time but I think that's wildly overblown. He excels in man coverage and is silky smooth and fluid. He plays high level, mistake-free football and cancels out anyone he's covering. He has the length and positional understanding to play zone as well making him very valuable to DCs running mix coverages. He has All-Pro potential. Pro Comp: Marshon Lattimore
- Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn: If you're a stat whore, you are going to completely miss the appeal of Derrick Brown. For anyone who watched Auburn's defense last year, you know instantly the type of impact Derrick Brown has. He was able to blow up the run against constant double and sometimes triple teams often using nothing more than his brute force and sheer athleticism. He's never going to be a 6 sack per year guy, but that's not why he's on the field. He's one of those guys who "magically" makes everyone else's job easier. He sets 'em up, they knock him down. He won't go as high as #4, but there's no way he gets out of the top 10. Pro Comp: Linval Joseph
- Joe Burrow, QB, LSU: I was one of the most skeptical Joe Burrow Stans at the beginning of the year. I refused to believe that same QB I watched in 2018 was any better than the year before, the new offense just made it easier to put up numbers. I watched every game from Florida onward and as much as I tried, it's been hard to pick him apart. He's really fucking good. He may not wow with any single trait except pinpoint accuracy and elite pocket presence, but he does everything at a very high level. Teammate quality be damned, Joe's the real deal. Pro Comp: Tony Romo
- CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma: CeeDee is one of those players that grows on you the more you watch him. He doesn't have elite speed, let's get that out of the way. But everything else he does at an elite level. He's a silky smooth route runner with a good catch radius and hangs on to nearly everything. I think a large part of Baker, Kyler, and Jalen's success has had some part to do because of how easy Lamb made it for them. His numbers don't pop out necessarily, but that's due to how Oklahoma plays. Make no mistake, he'll be a #1 for a long time. Pro Comp: Deandre Hopkins
- Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa: I'll be honest, I really didn't get the Wirfs hype to start the season. The first game I watched was the Michigan game live and all I noticed was Nate Stanley getting the ball and then proceeding to run for his life every down. As I've watched more, I've noticed he was largely the only good thing about that OL. Hyper athletic, silky smooth in pass pro, and a nasty player in the run game, he's the entire package. I don't really care that he allowed 2 sacks last year or that he's only played RT; when you have the traits Wirfs does, you jump on it right away. Pro Comp: Lane Johnson
- AJ Epenesa, DL, Iowa: Epenesa is one of the most misunderstood players in this draft. Any team that drafts him as a 3-4 edge rusher is going to be sorely disappointed when he becomes a (consistent) 7-8 sack per season kind of guy. Epenesa's best work comes on stunts and breaking down double teams on the inside to work his way to the QB. Players with his kind of power, speed, and length combination are rare. Play him on the edge at your own risk; play him inside at the 3 or 5T and you may have an All-Pro. Pro Comp: DeForest Buckner
- Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama: After Wirfs, I think Wills has the highest ceiling out of all the tackles in this draft. I've actually followed Wills since he was tearing up the Lexington high school scene in Kentucky and his progression has been insAane. He continues to get leaps and bounds better every season. Always a very physical player in the run game, he's been very good in the pass game on his way to allowing just one sack last year. He didn't always face the opposition's best rusher, but it doesn't matter. Projecting to LT shouldn't be a problem. Pro Comp: Taylor Lewan
- Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama: Jeudy is arguably the most established collegiate receiver in this draft. The 2018 Biletnikoff winner has had a ton of hype around him even before Tua won the starting job at Alabama. An unreal route runner with a sneaky gear change in his acceleration, he's certainly a threat to take it to the house on every play. I have questions about his play strength and his ability to win outside against the NFL's best, but we'll let his unbelievable production against the SEC's best CBs speak for itself. Pro Comp: Amari Cooper
- Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama: Tua has to be the most famous player in the draft, right? There's good reason for it: he's put together arguably the greatest statistical two-year run of any college QB since what? Tim Tebow? Ever? He's small in stature but makes up for it with a quick release, good footwork, insane deep ball accuracy, and fantastic timing. There are obviously concerns about his injury history but people bring up valid complaints against his composure playing from behind and his ability to compete without elite supporting members. I won't dismiss them, but they're certainly not enough to knock him any lower. Pro Comp: Drew Brees
- Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina: There may not be a more imposing physical specimen outside the Top 5 than Javon Kinlaw. Standing 6'5" and 325 (the same size as Derrick Brown) but moving like a defensive end, Kinlaw is a matchup nightmare for anyone on the interior OL. He is tenacious in getting into the backfield and has been productive as a pass rusher. I question his effort and consistency in production at times but not to the point that it's a major problem. If he can keep that motor on even 15% more often, he's going to be hard to pass up. Pro Comp: Chris Jones
- Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia: AT has to be one of the safest picks in this entire draft. A multi-year starter at LT for the Dawgs, he's been consistent in pass protection and very physical in the run game throughout his time. I think he lacks the foot speed to excel against the absolute fastest speed rushers but he has very good technique and does little poorly. He may never been a top 5 OT but he'll be a left tackle you won't have to worry about replacing for 10 years. Pro Comp: Mitchell Schwartz
- Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin: Taylor has been a workhorse at Wisconsin the last 3 years as they continue to churn out yet another elite RB. Superficial scouts may see a 4.39 and think he's just a speed runner but he's much more. Very physical, hard to tackle, fantastic balance and vision, and developed nicely in 2019 in the pass game, he's become a do it all back. I'm personally not worried about the workload and I think you take the best back first. That shouldn't be controversial. They don't make many like JT and we may look back and wonder why we didn't put him in the conversation with Zeke, Saquon, and Fournette. Pro Comp: Adrian Peterson
- Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma: In another draft where you didn't have some superhuman lab creature ahead of him, Murray would be getting a lot of attention for his play at linebacker. Far more than just a mike/sam who can play downhill, Murray is a very effective pass rusher and has all the twitch you need to be successful covering RBs and TEs to boot. Having been the pulse of an improved Oklahoma defense over the past season, a lot of that starts with Murray. Pro Comp: Demario Davis
- Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE, Penn State: One of the currently most slept on edge rushers in the class in my opinion. Many will cite YGM's lack of discipline in the run game but I think it's well overblown. He sets a very good edge when he's patient and has arguably the best size/speed/power combo outside of Chase Young. There isn't a more consistently productive edge rusher in this class at the P5 level despite drawing lots of attention from teams all year long. I really hope people keep sleeping on him because he fits my Titans perfect at #29. I think GM's will wise up by April though. Pro Comp: Chandler Jones
- Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama: I have been one of Ruggs' most vocal critics over the past few months as I was curious how fast he actually was. I had a strong feeling he wouldn't break the record but I though anything between 4.28 and 4.35 was in play. He exceeded those expectations. I still think he may be relegated to the slot often and I question his ability to win outside and grow on his limited production. He has insanely quick feet to match that top end speed, though, and has done a good job hanging onto the football. Ultimately, dude's fast. And speed sells. Pro Comp: Desean Jackson
- K'Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU: Chaisson is one of the most intriguing prospects in this draft to me. There might not be a rusher that is more disruptive in terms of just running at you and beating you after Chase. Injuries have slowed him down and he didn't really produce until midway through the season. He finished very strong, though, and I would bet on him to continue that trend in the league. His athletic gifts are undeniable and will give him continued opportunities to succeed. Pro Comp: Shaquil Barrett
- Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama: Brother of Stefon, Diggs clearly has some of the good family genes in him. His ball skills are possibly his best attribute and he attacks the ball like a wide receiver. Beyond that, he has all the measurables you want with great size and length and good speed for the position. He's tailor-made to play outside and has a good punch and is sticky in man coverage. People cite how JaMarr Chase wrecked him, and he did. But Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase wrecked everyone and that's a high standard to hold him to. Ultimately, he's coming off a great year and will be a great press-man CB at the next level. Pro Comp: Xavier Rhodes (before he sucked)
- Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU: Coming off a fantastic year on the title-winning Tigers team, Jefferson has gained a lot of notoriety since December. Thanks to three high level postseason games- where he racked up 30 catches for 448 yards and 5 TDs- and a very good combine performance, JJ is skyrocketing up boards. What people forget though is that he's been doing it all year. He's got great size and uses it very well attacking the ball aggressively (he won a ridiculous 92% of contested catches last year, almost double any other receiver in the class) and rarely drops passes. He has very good top speed, is a smooth route runner, and has a good release. Sure, he only ran at #2 CBs for a lot of the year, but he is a ridiculously complete receiver and, honestly, I may have him too low. Pro Comp: AJ Green
- CJ Henderson, CB, Florida: Henderson is one of my favorite CB prospects in this draft and the sky is the limit on his potential. Often lumped together with failed Florida CBs of yesteryear (Quincy Wilson, Hargreaves, Teez Tabor, etc), it's foolish to gloss over this guy. He's an absolutely unreal springy, twitchy athlete with all the size and length you could want. He does a great job staying in front of 90% of plays and has the make-up speed you want in your OCB. He delivers a great hit when running downhill as well. You may knock him due to some big plays allowed in 2019, which he needs to correct, but is due partially to randomness, IMO. If he averages anywhere close to his 2018 play, he'll be a great pickup at #21. Pro Comp: Marlon Humphrey
- Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson: Higgins has been one of the most productive receivers in CFB over the last 3 years and has made life very difficult for opposing CBs. Using his impressive size constantly to his advantage, he's an elite jump ball winner and an eraser for inaccurate QBs. I have questions over his top speed after he declined to run at the combine, but he certainly looks fast enough to get the job done in the NFL. He doesn't always separate but when you have the catch radius and sticky hands he does, you can get away with it. He'll never be the best receiver in the league but he's very safe and you'll never have to doubt having an option on the outside. Pro Comp: Mike Williams
- Josh Jones, OT, Houston: I'm a big Josh Jones Stan as well. At Houston, he excelled in both pass protection and run blocking on a team that didn't have much to play for early on in the year. He's a pretty athletic tackle prospect with an opportunity to play at either spot. He needs to improve his anchor to not get off balance but I think experience and anticipation will help. I think people saying he's this year's Andre Dillard may be right; he doesn't have the highest pedigree but when you have a guy that big who can play like he does, you take him. Pro Comp: Jake Matthews
- Zack Baun, OLB, Wisconsin: Baun may not be the most naturally gifted athletes but he's one of the most productive defenders in this class for good reason. He's a very complete defender who excels at doing a variety of things. Largely ask to play as an edge rusher at Wisconsin (but off-ball as well), he is exceptional at getting after the passer. He came in light to the combine all but confirming the move to OLB, but a team wanting to use him like Seattle used Bruce Irvin could see a lot of success. He has good instincts, a few good rush moves, and is fast enough to cover out of the backfield. Some say he's a so-so tackler but I haven't seen it. Take him and be prepared to get a little creative. Pro Comp: Clay Matthews
- JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio State: What a career Dobbins has had at OSU. Two years ago he was already on draft boards as a potential scat back in the NFL. After a not-as-hoped progression in '18, he really showed his colors last year. Dobbins has developed into an electric and dominant runner who excels at finding a crease and smacking the hole. He ran like a man possessed this year on his way to a 2,000 yard and 21 TD season. He still retains that scat back ability though, flipping out of the backfield to constantly hoard free yards by being a nightmare for opposing LBs. He's a little undersized but he's bulked up in recent years. And his breakaway speed is may not as good as you'd think. But he's a wicked player and will have a long career. Pro Comp: Dalvin Cook
- Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU: I was a critic of Fulton early on in the evaluation process but he's slowly started to prove me wrong. Besides a tough game against a very potent pass attack in Clemson and a so-so one against Alabama, Fulton was one of the best lock-down CBs all year. He had one of the best pass-defense ratings in CFB all year. The large questions for me around Fulton have to do with him staying in front of the football. He didn't seem to get his head turned around quick enough on film and that gives me pause for someone moving on to the next level. Still, he did it against CFB's best last year and he certainly has the speed to do it. A little undersized, he still has a good press and will be successful. He reminds me of another LSU CB who came out a couple years ago with similar concerns. Pro Comp: Tre'Davious White
- Patrick Queen, ILB, LSU: Arguably no player improved their stock more through the national championship game than Patrick Queen. On many radars already, he exploded onto the scene after they called his name again and again against the nation's best. A very physical mike linebacker who loves playing downhill, he possesses elite athletic traits you want in a modern linebacker and delivers a ferocious boom when he times it right. He struggles with gambling at times, though he will develop as he becomes more experienced. Discipline can be taught, but that type of athleticism can't. Pro Comp: Rashaan Evans
- Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor: After an extremely impressive combine, Denzel Mims is rapidly ascending draft boards across America right now. If you weren't already looking, though, that's on you. After putting up nearly 3,000 yards the last 3 seasons at Baylor, Mims has been one of the most established threats in the Big12 for a while. A very long receiver with obviously great top speed and a great catch radius, there's very little that Mims can't do. There's very few receivers who come into the draft so pro-ready as blockers as well. I have concerns about his drop rate (8% is a little high) but he was reliable in 2019 and I forsee that not being a big issue in the leauge. Pro Comp: DeVante Parker
- Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon: Herbert has been one of the most polarizing prospects throughout this past season. Depending on who you ask, what he was able to achieve at Oregon may be very impressive or somewhat underwhelming. Same for his performance at the Senior Bowl. I don't feel as strongly, but I don't think Herbert will be a top 10 QB. He has the tools: a very good arm, good mobility, solid mechanics, is accurate for the most part. But, as many note, the game still looks like it moves too fast for Herbert. He's slow to process a lot of reads and struggles under pressure at times. I don't think he'll be horrible, for the record, and I think he has a big will to win. He's still worth a top 10 pick for a QB-needy team because he can lead a lot of teams to very be successful. But for all his good traits, there's just obviously something missing and I'm not sure if he'll ever acquire it. Higher floor, but lower ceiling than many think. Pro Comp: Sam Darnold
- Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama: McKinney moves on from a great career at Alabama as a hyper-athletic, hard-hitting safety who finds the ball well. Don't let his combine fool you: he's much faster than 4.6. In a class where there aren't any great surefire safety prospects, McKinney will make some team very happy with his consistency in play. He needs to get better in coverage but he's the level of athlete that you believe it's teachable. He's not the sexiest pick but you can count on him as a good, versatile safety for years to come. Pro Comp: Shawn Williams
- D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia: Many may scoff that I have Swift as the RB3 in this class but I still have him as one of the best 32 players. It's a testament to the depth of this class. Swift played in tandem with a combination of Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, and Elijah Holyfield for his first 2 seasons but really burst onto the scene as the guy in '19. He's a very twitchy, patient back who is expertly able to make defenders looked stupid with some violent cuts and spins. He's a very good back catching balls out the backfield and one of the best route runners in the class. Less so than the others, he doesn't have one thing that I think he's elite at but he does everything proficiently. It doesn't matter as much to me, but some teams will fall in love with the fact that he's only seen 400-odd touches in college, too. I don't think he's dominant, but he's certainly a feature back for most teams in the league. Pro Comp: Miles Sanders
- Cole Kmet, TE, Notre Dame: There's our first TE on the board. When I watched through Kmet's tape at first, I'll be honest: I was a little bored. Kmet isn't exactly the flashiest player in this class and you won't see him wowing fans week-after-week with highlight plays. He is, though, extremely polished coming into the league. He obviously very big and moves well for his size. He's very sure-handed and is a very good in-line blocker. He only burst onto the scene this season, so there will be some doubts whether he can keep it up. But if you want sound TE play and a guy that just quietly does what you need him to, he's your man. Pro Comp: Mark Andrews
- Grant Delpit, S, LSU: I really feel for Grant Delpit because it's very tough to go from a top 5-10 pick to a fringe first rounder. He hasn't done himself any favors this year, though. Infamous for many missed tackles this year, he also didn't flex his incredible ball skills the way he did in '18 and struggled with a nagging ankle injury. Despite all of this, he's still one of the best athletes in the draft and has all the size you want for someone playing safety. He's rangy with good make-up speed and still can deliver a pop when he does find the ball carrier. For all his problems tackling, I don't see it as an effort problem and that's important to note. He may hurt you, but he's also worth a significant gamble and can be a perennial Pro-Bowler. Pro Comp: Marcus Williams
- Chase Claypool, WR, Notre Dame: Chase is one of my draft crushes since the middle of the season. If you want to watch a guy take over, just watch his 4th quarter performance against a good Virginia Tech secondary (I think it was before their starter got hurt). Claypool is a big guy for the position but I was stunned when he came in at 238. Still, he moves very fluidly and has great hands. He's an underrated route runner with great YAC ability. Of course, he also uses his size very well and is a proficient jump ball winner. I have questions about his hands in the past but in 2019 he was reliable. He was the only offensive threat and helped carry that Notre Dame offense to a 11-2 record. He needs a little polish but his God-given ability is off the charts. Pro Comp: Kenny Golladay
- Mehki Becton, OT, Louisville: Becton is an absolute freak. A guy standing at 365 lbs has no business running a 5.1 forty. That's just stupid. He paved the way well all year for a resurgent Louisville rushing attack and just moved guys as he wanted all year long. You also can't help but notice how well he moves for his size: he won't win Dancing with the Stars, but he he's got good footwork. The only issue I have with Mehki lies in his effort/conditioning. It's hard to tell if he took some plays off because he was gassed or if it was because he didn't have effort, but he can't do that in the NFL. He may also struggle with the absolute best speed rushers. But guys with his size, quickness, and long arms are rare. He's still likely a first rounder. Pro Comp: Donovan Smith
- Terrell Lewis, EDGE, Alabama: Terrell Lewis is a lab-creation on the edge. The blend of his length, speed, and power is special. On his day, he is able to effortlessly glide through, around, over, etc opposing tackles at will. He struggled in the 2nd half of the season for Alabama and failed to register a sack after the Tennessee game. He plays undisciplined often and shows a poor repertoire of counters when his first move doesn't work. He weighs in well but is very lanky and looks very thin out there. He's missed a lot of time due to injury in his career each season he's played. It doesn't matter. When Lewis gets downhill and gets a step to a tackle, it's over. He's not my favorite prospect and comes with much risk, but there's no denying his top level ability if he can grow and stay healthy. Pro Comp: Montez Sweat
- James Lynch, IDL, Baylor: I'm one of the biggest James Lynch fans in this draft. Lynch may not have the athletic profile of some of the other players on this list but by George is he not one of the most effective and refined players you have to choose from. After bursting on the scene as the best player on a dominant Baylor defense in 2019, he was a load to handle in the middle for opposing defense all year on his way to 13 sacks. He has a nasty initial punch that takes guards off balance and lives in the backfield. He won't get that at the NFL but for a 3 or 5 technique, he'll excel and is a very balanced defender. Very high floor on this one. Pro Comp: Cam Heyward
- Neville Gallimore, DT, Oklahoma: On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, you have an absolute freak in Neville Gallimore. Gallimore was able to shed 30 lbs last offseason to transition from a nose tackle to a more effective 3T and boy did it pay off. He was good before but he looked much more explosive this season and that showed through at the combine. Able to use his elite get off to get you off balance and his natural power to push through, he was able to live in the backfield. His only questions lie in the consistency of his effort. But if he can find another level in his motor and continue to condition, the sky's the limit. Able to play either a 3T or shade nose position at the next level easily. Pro Comp: Kenny Clark
- Michael Pittman, WR, USC: Sometimes being an elite football player is just in your DNA. Pittman was a star at USC this past season after the team was relegated to their 3rd(?) starting QB early in the year. Slovis played well but it was in no small part to Pittman. Making highlight catch after highlight catch, he also wowed me with his quick feet and ability to get separation as well. He has an incredible contested catch rate and rarely drops the ball, creating a formula that makes almost any receiver successful in the league. There will be some questions about PAC12 DBs he faced, but it's silly. Pittman is one of my favorite receivers in the draft and wherever he lands in the 2nd round will be getting a steal. Pro Comp: Mike Evans
- Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU: Ross has been a nfl_draft favorite for several months now but his stock in the public eye is finally starting to match perception. Blacklock excelled as a 3T at TCU last season and was able to use his tremendous athleticism to get in the backfield. He's very natural as a pass rusher and when he beats the guard to the first step, he's gone. A little small, he does get off balance at times. And there will be some concerns about injuries that have derailed him in the past. Still, when he's on his game, there are few better. Now that I think about it, I feel sorry for the talent that Big 12 guards saw last year. Pro Comp: Larry Ogunjobi
- Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU: Another Horned Frog makes his way onto the board here and it's for good reason. Despite his size, Gladney feasted last year with TCU on his way to a productive 2019 campaign. A very intelligent player with very good speed, it takes quite a bit to get past Gladney in either man or zone. There will be some concerns whether his lack of size will keep him from playing OCB in the NFL but smaller CBs have done it and regardless there is a great future for him in the nickel as well. Physical and consistent, there's always a place for those CBs. A so-so combine doesn't deter me. Pro Comp: Kyle Fuller
- Justin Madubuike, DT, Texas A&M: I. Love. Madubuike. My board is mostly set but he may continue to go up because the more I watch, the more I love. The guy has elite get off on the defensive line and has elite production in the SEC to match. 11 sacks and 20 TFL in the last 2 seasons is nothing to sniff at. He uses his great burst and mean punch to quickly accelerate past guards like they're not there. He's an efficient run defender and a great pass rusher. He needs to improve his work against double teams and add some to his frame but come on. The guy's a stud. Pro Comp: Gerald McCoy
- Ashtyn Davis, S, California: Another favorite of people on the sub, Ashtyn Davis has everything you could want out of a prospect. To match his top-level athleticism, he's a safety with great instincts and ball-skills with very high character that appears very coachable. I have soft spot for former walk-ons and he's one of those guys that's grinded to get where he is. He has good size, to boot. He doesn't have many primary areas he struggles with but he can continue to develop against the run. He's a guy that can certainly sneak into the first round if the right team lands in the right situation. Pro Comp: Kevin Byard
- Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU: The 3rd Horned Frog in 5 spots, but Reagor finally settles in. I was a huge fan of Reagor when I started on the film and it's hard not to notice his incredible burst and top speed. Some will cite his so-so combine but I have no problem believing he's much faster than that. IMO, there's two things that separate Reagor from your traditional speed-demon prospect. First, he is one of the better 50/50 ball winners in this class and that's saying something. He has not let his height/weight keep him from attacking the ball catching it at full extension. Second, he is an extremely poor cutter for his natural speed. There's a lot of wasted movement and he nukes his own acceleration. Looks a little uncoordinated even. Still, he has a future in this league even with his limited route tree and drop problems. You can't take your eyes off him for one second. Pro Comp: DK Metcalf, minus a few inches
- Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado: Very receivers in CFB the last two years have been as electric as Laviska Shenault. Able to play out wide, out of the slot, out of the backfield, or even in the wildcat, Viska uses his large frame and athleticism to power through defenders at will. As a receiver, he lacks quite a bit of polish. His route running can be sloppy and his hands can be questionable. But his YAC and running ability in general will keep him in the league for a long time. He's the type of guy you want to get the ball in space and let him go. Tackle at your own risk. Pro Comp: AJ Brown
- Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State: The last in a very difficult group of WRs for me to sort through, Aiyuk isn't far behind the others. After coming through the junior college ranks, Aiyuk burst onto the scene for ASU posting nearly 1200 yards and 8 TDs last year with an absolutely stupid 18 yards per catch. He is able to beat press on the outside (if you can get your hands on him) and use his incredible speed and acceleration to glide in between defenders rather effortlessly. He's pretty sure handed, though I wouldn't bank on him to go for many jump balls. Still, even if in the slot, Aiyuk will be a problem for opposing DCs for several years due to his ability to break one at any given time. He's a top 20 pick in most drafts. Pro Comp: DJ Moore
- AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson: AJ is another in a long line of Clemson CBs that are really great on paper but on tape you just don't know about. Few had a more impressive showing at the combine and he assured scouts of his legit OCB size to match with elite athleticism. On film, he shows to be a very willing tackler and can deliver some pop on unsuspecting ball carriers. Still, you have to worry about Terrell as a gambler at times and he does seem to get lost in coverage. He was beat pretty badly in the NCG but I don't hold that against him. Ultimately, I think his level of play held him back and I'm confident he can adapt at the next level. Whether he will is up to him but there's no doubt he has all the tools to do it. Pro Comp: Byron Jones
- Albert Okwuegbuman, TE, Missouri: The Big O was arguably the most heralded TE prospect coming into the past season but, like many flashy players before, he was exposed a little on film throughout the year. An absolute terror in the red zone with incredible big-play ability and obviously elite top-end athleticism, Albert has a lot of traits you want in a feature TE. He is, of course, a very inconsistent blocker and his lack of effort at times is concerning. There's no reason a TE that big and that athletic doesn't dominate on every play. You put Kmet in Albert O's body and you have a top 10 pick. Still, you have to hope the right coaches and environment can bring the best out of him. I wouldn't want to line up across from him on any given play. Pro Comp: Jimmy Graham
- Kyle Dugger, S, Lenoir-Rhyne: Dugger is one of the great mysteries of the draft to me. Coming from a D2 school where he looked like Ed Reed playing against Pop Warner kids, it's really hard to judge how good this guy actually is. He had a great combine and that was one of the first benchmarks I needed to see him hit. He measured well, ran well. He clearly has good ball skills and has big plus upside as a return man at the next level. He's very powerful and used his size well. It's hard to say much more because right now he's mostly a blank canvas. But he's an incredible athlete and we could be talking about a future Pro Bowler. Pro Comp: Rayshawn Jenkins
- Cesar Ruiz, IOL, Michigan: Our first interior lineman sneaks on the board and it's well deserved. Cesar Ruiz starred in the middle of the Michigan OL the past couple seasons and is known for his consistency. He may not wow you with his athleticism but he's a very willing run block and very consistent pass protector. He's a cerebral player in the middle who plays very physically. It may not sound like the most glowing recommendation, but consistency is what you want the most from your interior lineman. He has as good a shot as any player to be a consistent Pro-Bowler. Pro Comp: Rodney Hudson
- Kenny Willekes, EDGE, Michigan State: One of my favorite prospects in an otherwise rough edge class. Another former walk-on for MSU, Willekes has been one of the most productive edge defenders the last 3 seasons on his way to 50(!) TFLs and 23.5 sacks. Knocked for his athleticism, I don't totally understand why. He looks a little slow footed at times but at others is quick to blow right through tackles and even tight ends. He's very disciplined in the run game and his sack totals have gotten better each season. He's an absolute terror to block and projects best as 3-4 strong-side OLB. Pass on him because of his size if you want, I hope he suits up for my team next year. Pro Comp: Jordan Jenkins
- Antoine Winfield, S, Minnesota: He may be pint-sized but he packs a mean punch. Playing safety for the Golden Gophers the last 4 season, Winfield burst on the scene this year after recording 7 picks on the year. Despite his small stature, he is not afraid to deliver some physical hits and plays very downhill. He excels in zone coverage but isn't to be picked on in man either and has little trouble reading the play. I have questions about how he will hold up after injuries derailed his previous two seasons, but he has football in is blood. I don't know if he'll hold up in the league, but he'll be damn good when he's out there. Pro Comp: Tyrann Mathieu
- Julian Okwara, EDGE, Notre Dame: The last on the list is an explosive edge rusher who comes downhill as well as on the list. I am pretty critical of Okwara's lack of production- just 15 sacks and 20 TFLs in the last 3 seasons- and 2019 wasn't his best. He struggles to stay on the field. He gets stonewalled too easily. But when you turn on the tape, you know why he's so highly sought after. When he gets going at tough speed, you can't adjust to him. You almost can't see him coming. There's nothing gradual to his game. He either gets there quickly, or he doesn't at all. He needs to work hard on adding counters and becoming more physical. But if he can supplement that at all, he can be a dangerous pass rusher in the NFL. Pro Comp: Harold Landry
That's it guys. Hope you can glean something from it. Let me know where I screwed up in the comments. Lol. Cheers.
Value of a Half Point and Getting the Best Number
Value of a Half Point and Getting the Best Number submitted by cleatstreet to sportsbook [link] [comments]
It's crazy to think we've already watched 8 weeks of NCAAF and 7 weeks of the NFL season, so this may seem late, but I’d like to offer you a refresher on conditional probabilities and how they can be used in betting football.
At its core, sports betting is about estimating the probability of an event occurring. To find value, you then compare your estimate with the implied probability of the payout that is offered from a sportsbook. For example, if you estimate the probability of Notre Dame covering the spread against Michigan to be 55.0%, it’s probably worth a bet if you can get -110 odds on Notre Dame (52.4% breakeven probability). Conditional Probabilities
However, what is often oversimplified is the fact that your estimate is actually a conditional probability
. Your estimate of 55.0% probability of Notre Dame covering is conditional
on the fact that 1) the teams that are playing are Notre Dame and Michigan (duh), 2) that Notre Dame is a 3.5-point underdog, and 3) whatever else is an input into your model. If Notre Dame were a 1.0-point underdog instead, which is where the current spread is, your probability would be different. This is what makes totals and spreads incrementally harder to model than money lines
. Betting a money line, you only need to consider the odds (set by a sportsbook) and the probability of the team winning. Betting the spread, however, requires you to account for the odds and the probability of a team covering the spread, both of which (the odds and the spread) are set by the sportsbook.
To complicate things further, in football, scoring is usually done in increments of 3 and 7. This causes football scores to fall on certain stores much more frequently than others, resulting in a unique distribution of the margin of victory. You likely have heard of the phrase “key numbers” (such as 3, 7, 10, 14 and 21) which are the most frequent margins of victory in NCAA football, accounting for almost 30% of outcomes over the last five seasons. Below, we’ve displayed the frequency of occurrence of the 10 most frequent outcomes in NCAA football, representing almost half of games played. https://imgur.com/a/f7mbksF
The frequency of a game ending in a 21-point margin is historically around 4 percent, but Team A could be on the winning or losing side of that game. So with this data, we should be able to conclude that the likelihood of a Team A winning by 21 points is approximately 2 percent, right? Not quite.
For example, Oklahoma is playing Kansas State on Saturday. Oklahoma, as the favorite, has a much higher likelihood of winning the game by 21 points than Kansas State.
So let’s look at the frequency of winning by 21, conditional
on being the favorite. Of the 4,157 games played over the last five seasons, 32 games were a pick-em, leaving 4,125 instances where there was a favorite and an underdog. There were also 165 instances of a game ending in a 21-point victory, of which 132 of them were won by the favorite. Therefore, conditional on being a favorite, the frequency of winning by 21 points has been 3.2%
(132/4125) over the past five years.
Unfortunately, this is not enough to say that a team that is favored by 21 points has a 3.2% probability of pushing. Not all favorites are the same, as some are small favorites and some are large favorites. What we’d like to do is isolate the games that feature a 21-point favorite, or thereabouts.
Over the last five seasons, there have been 219 games featuring a favorite between 20 and 22 points. (Note: we used 20-22 rather than 21 for the sake of increasing our sample size, and therefore our confidence in these insights.) In those 219 games, the favorite won by exactly 21 points on 15 occasions, or 6.8% of the time
. While we don’t know with certainty that this represents the true probability of pushing a bet as a 21-point favorite (as there are many other factors in a game), we are much more comfortable with this figure than any of the figures calculated above. Value of a Half Point
Let’s assume that you want to bet Cal v Utah on Saturday and some books have Cal +21 at -110 while others have Cal +21.5 at -125. Which is the better bet?
Using our push percentage of 6.8%, this turns into a simple arithmetic problem to determine the sportsbooks’ hold. By taking the sum-product of each outcome and the respective payout, we can determine the expected return and expected hold. As you can see below, it is more advantageous for us to lay -125 to get that extra half point to avoid the push. https://imgur.com/a/YpSCGDQ Getting the Best Number
Of course, none of this matters unless you have the option to bet both of those lines. This is one of the fundamental reasons why I’ve previously advocated having accounts at multiple sportsbooks.
Hopefully this provides some insight into how to choose lines! As always, please leave feedback in the comments below!
Annual Cowboys draft target post - 2nd and 3rd rounds
submitted by am3nn to cowboys [link] [comments]
Continuing with the 2nd and 3rd round
Round 1 - https://www.reddit.com/cowboys/comments/f06f8g/annual_cowboys_draft_target_post_1st_round/
- QB - none
- RB - none
- WR - Justin Jefferson, LSU (WR8), K.J Hamler, Penn State (WR9), Quintez Cephus, Wisconsin (WR10)
- Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
: Incredibly productive 2019, extremely reliable, strong hands, natural hands catcher, has breakaway speed when given space, big play threat, adjust to the ball that is in flight well, played really well against the best competition he faced, great in traffic, played a really tough schedule and was dominant at times from the slot, big body at 6'3“ that should be able to transition to the outside in the NFL, willing blocker. Weaknesses
: Plays slot exclusively, only one year of big time production which poses the question of if he is a product of great great offense, needs to continue developing on his hand usage at the LOS and route tree as his mostly consists of crossing and go routes, needs to fill his frame a little more to endure the punishment of the NFL Bottom line
: Jefferson exploded with LSU this year. He catches basically everything thrown his way and just continues producing. Great hands, great in traffic, very reliable target, frame that should transition into outside position in the NFL but if not, he can still be an extremely productive player from the slot. The only reason why he isn't higher, and based on production he probably should be is that on his tape you can see that most of his production comes from the system that LSU runs and great QB play. He has an elite trait which are his hands and that is very important for a pass catcher. If he is put in position to grow his route tree and have a reliable QB that can throw him the ball on target and on time, Jefferson will probably outproduce every receiver in this class. If he is put in a bad position, he could fail on the next level.
- K.J Hamler, WR, Penn State (WR9)
: Route running, ability to create seperation, stop start quickness and change of direction are elite, great with ball in his hands, great playmaker that is a threa to take it to the house every time he catches the ball, elusive in the open field, has some great moves that freeze defenders in open field, blur on tape, almost impossible to cover 1 on 1 Weaknesses
: Shades and memories of Tavon Austin because of his size, he is a slot only player on the next level because of his size limitations (5'9"), high possible bust factor because of it, questions if he can translate beating press man at the next level as he has faced limited oportunities to do so in college and against athletes equally elite as himself. Botom line
: I love watching Hamler play. Reminds me of Dante Hall with the ball in his hands. That slo reminds me of his size limitations and how much players like he bust in the NFL. I can see him not working out but as a prospect he is a very fun, very enjoyable player to watch. He has great route running skills even tho the route running is limited to mostly slot where most of his production comes from. One of my favourite players in this draft class
- Quintez Cephus, WR, Wisconsin (WR10)
: Ability to release and fundamentally beat the oposing CB, great hands, great in traffic, great on down field shots and tracking the ball over his shoulder, beats press man with hand usage and with foot quickness, ability to produce in a run first offense with one of the best college RBs of all time, fundamentally sound receiver that reminds of Michael Thomas who might not test extremely well but will be a productive force for years in the NFL. Weaknesses
: Missed the whole 2018 season due to alegations of sexual assault (found not guilty), he is not the best athlete in the class and will not wow anyone with it, route tree is still limited as is with most of these prospects, change of direction testing will be big as he doesn't really win with athleticism at the top of the route but mostly just outsmarts the oposition. Bottom line
: If everything in the background checks out Cephus is worthy of as high of a pick as I projected him here. He is a fundamentally sound receiver, having the ability to stack the CB at the top of his route on the downfield shots, has great hands, great ball skills, tracks the ball in flight very well and adjusts to it accordingly. He just does all the things well. He is also of decent size at 6'1" 210. He also projects more as a Z receiver than a true X. Flashes of Michael Gallup in some of his plays and I project a similar career path to Cephus too.
- TE - Hunter Bryant, Washington (TE3)
- Hunter Bryant, TE, Washington
: Very good receiving TE, natural hands catcher, makes contested catches in traffic, improved as a blocker in 2019, gives his effort in the run game, productive for his position and well coached, very good with the ball in his hands, good at RAC, decent route runner for a TE, can be a miss match weapon as a slot player. Weaknesses
: Size limitations that will not allow for him to ever be a true in-line Y in the NFL, oversized slot receiver more than a true TE, can get overpowered on the LOS, blocking technique needs work. Bottom line
: In a overall weak TE class, if you need a receiving option at the position, you will probably want to go with Bryant. He's a solid pass catching TE who's size doesn't allow him to be a true in-line Y and he is not quick or exposive enough to be a WR but he gets the job done from a hybrid slot/TE position. He catches the ball well, he runs well after the catch, he's productive and well coached and he is improved as a blocker in 2019 and gives his best shot it seems every time.
- OT - Prince Tega-Wangoho, Auburn (OT8)
- Prince Tega-Wangoho, OT, Auburn
: Plays with nasty attitude and mean spirit, adequate footwork and footspeed to become an NFL starter, length and size is great, good at combo blocking, good looking athlete, finishes plays, steady player that face a lot of good competition and didn't look out of place, played both LT and RT at Auburn, moves his feet on contact, has the athletic ability to make some great reach blocks. Weaknesses
: Plays off balance at times, can get pulled and thugged down by stronger linemen, even tho he isn't really deficient in any category of the tackle play he isn't great at any one thing either, his angles in space need work, can get bullrushed with lower anchor strength than some better prospects, he needs refining as a tackle as he is still learning the position, needs to learn how to extend and lock out his arms to not let rushers into his frame better Bottom line
: Wanogho is a prospect that is still learning the ins and outs of the tackle position but the physical traits are all in place. He has great size, great length, moves well in space, has good foot speed. Just needs to put things together more as he develops. He isn't beat that often but when he is he often lets the rusher into his frame or he takes false steps and oversets for a type of rush he expects. If he puts everything together his ceiling is high. I love the attitude and mean streak he has and I personally loved watching him.
- IOL - Cesar Ruiz, OC, Michigan (OC2), Jonah Jackson, OG, Ohio State (OG1), Damien Lewis, OG, LSU (OG2) Logan Stenberg, OG, Kentucky (OG3).
- DT - Ross Blacklock, TCU (DT4), Justin Madubuike, Texas A&M (DT5), Jordan Elliott, Missouri (DT6)
- Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU (3T)
: Explosive player with great get off, elite pad level with extremely good balance, grown man strength at the point of attack, very good anchor strength, very hard to stop in disrupting the play even by double teams, motor runs hot almost every snap, plays in a unfavourable system as a NT but will project much better as a penetrating 4-3 3T on the next level, potential is huge on tape, has pass rush moves and tools and physical traits that NFL teams will covet, love his long arm move, still growing as a player. Weaknesses
: Health will be a concern for NFL teams because he has missed whole 2018 with an achilles injury, he sometimes has trouble finding the ball carrier and making the play even tho he is in a good position to do so, tends to be cautios at the snap at times when it isn't an obvious passing down so he doesn't use his athleticism immediately. Bottom line
: Ross Blacklock is my favourite DT prospect I've watched this year. He is a grown man at the point of attack. He plays extremely hard and is extremely hard to stop. I haven't seen a lot of DTs have a better pad level in college. He is extremely well balanced and coordinatedwhen attacking gaps in the run game and doesn't spend a lot of time on the ground. Enormous potential that might get noticed in the draft process so I wouldn't be shocked if he is one of the first DTs off the board in the end.
- Justin Madubuike, DT, Texas A&M (3T)
: Very good anchor strength, good run defender, good pass rusher and interior disruptor, good ball get off, violent with his hands and uses variety of moves to get past defenders, plays with good pad leverage and wins with upfield penetration, productive career and a very productive last year at A&M. Weaknesses
: Can get caught up in the block of the OL failing to disengage and make a play, can miss a tackle in the hole, average grip strength to bring down the runners with his hands, can get out of control and fall on the ground failing to do meaningful things on that snap, looks like he takes plays off at times. Bottom line
: Projected penetrating 3T with good anchor strength in the run game. Needs to stay on his feet more and he is going to be making even more plays. Looks like a very good pickup on the 2nd day of the draft for the value he provides. Reminds me of Maliek Collins.
- Jordan Elliott, DT, Missouri
: Length and big frame he can grow even more into, pass rush, anticipation and upfield penetration, at times explosive first step, backfield disruptor in the run game, adequate anchor strength when facing a single blocker, potential is a huge, NFL teams will love him and he will probably rise even more by the end of the process. Weaknesses
: Can get bullied by double teams in the run game or by stronger linemen, fails to disengage at times and make a play, looks disintersted at times and content to get blocked without doing much of anything, doesn't always use his amazing pass rushing potential. Bottom line
: Potential to be great with Jordan Elliott is there. If he wants to work hard and play hard every snap, he might become a great player in the NFL. Prototype frame with prototype length, Elliott will be rising up the draft boards but his plays off were off putting to me on tape. Even tho he is one of the most prolific pass rushers in the class, even statistically, he needs to play snap in and snap out for me to grade him higher. Improved very much but has long ways to go.
- EDGE - Darrell Taylor, Tennessee (EDGE7), Bradlee Anae, Utah (EDGE8)
- Darrell Taylor, DE, Tennessee
: Extremely talented, productive career and 2019, possesses basically everything you want in a prototypical edge rusher to be molded into a special player, developed in his pass rush move usage, combination of size at 6'4“ 255, length, speed, explosiveness, uses variety of moves to get himself free of the blocker, nasty arm over move, easy mover in every direction, looks effortless when he beats the blocker, Taylor's first step is great. Weaknesses
: Off the field issues, needs to more consistent from game to game, motor tends to come and go, not going to be on the board for many teams nor will he be a fit for every team, does not look very interested in run defense at times, can allow blockers into his frame at times, bending ability is not great but hip flexibility gets the job done. Bottom line
: Taylor could be 2nd best pure pass rusher in the class. That is, if there weren't „off the field“ concers like fighting Trey Smith, his teammate, in 2017 or an on field fight he got into. He is probably not going to get picked on the first day but he has the ability to become special. Somebody is either going to get a trouble child or a possibly franchise altering talent at DE. Reminds a lot of Randy Gregory in the aspect that the talent is undeniable but the cost and the headache might be too high of a price to pay for NFL GMs. Strengths
: Disciplined steady player, savy pass rusher, good explosive first step that allows him to capture the outside shoulder of the blocker well, good size for a DE at 6'3“ 265, will be a fit for a lot of teams as he has dropped in coverage as an OLB and played in 2 point stance too, very productive career at Utah and improved in 2019 statistically with 12.5 sacks, has enough physical tools to be a good rusher in the NFL, plays with some power and routinely drives blockers back, sets the edge well in the run game, does his job and plays within his skillset very well, great senior bowl showing. Weaknesses
: Does not seem particularly athletically gifted outside his explosive first step and the hip flexibility, bend is okay but nothing spectacular, can overrun the QB because of the lack of ankle flexibility, need him to have a constant plan when rushing, needs to work on his counter moves and to develop a signature pass rush move because most of his production at the moment comes from power and hustle and will to get to the QB, arm length is not optimal. Bottom line
: Anae is a steady player that is going to be a rotational rushing piece for a team in the NFL. He isn't particularly flashy, outside his very good initial explosion off the line but he does his job and plays within his skillset better than almost everyone in this EDGE class. He understands how to win and how to get to the QB and is productive. He is very disciplined and will not cause your team to lose. Plays smart, sets good edge in the run game. Will be a coveted rotational piece that can grow into a starting type DE.
- LB - Akeem Davies-Gaither, App. State (LB6)
- CB - Noah Igbinoghene, Auburn (CB7), Jaylon Johnson, Utah (CB8), Cameron Dantzler, Miss. State (CB9)
- Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn
: Athletic ability, great hip flexibility, mirroring the reiceivers and not losing a step, facing tough competitions he played very well, has feel how to cover in man to man coverage, very sticky and almost impossible to shake in the route, can run the route for the receiver, good at breaking the balls up at the catch point, plays through receivers hands, very good at the point of attack in run defense, sure tackler. Weaknesses
: Head never gets turned around, limited production, much better athlete than a corner at this point of his career, limited to man coverage only on tape, instincts in zone coverage aren't shown so he might be a scheme specific player that not everyone will covet, the pass breakup technique he's thought is gonna get him in trouble if not fixed (swiping at the ball). Bottom line
: Sticky outside corner with great movement skills, Igbinoghene is a better athlete than a corner at this point and all he is basically asked to do in Auburn's defense is to get his man. And he does it extremely well. Playing against some of the best competition there is he really shined and stood out on tape. Not afraid to tackle and to hit. Igbinoghene is an ascending player so far in the process. Many people didn't think he would declare but I think he was right in doing so. He will be a very good player for man coverage teams and if developed properly he can be much more than that with his athletic ability.
- S - Kyle Dugger, Lenoir-Rhyne (S5)
- Kyle Dugger, S, Lenoir-Rhyne
: Incredibly athletic player, shows range, very good closing in a hurry and hitting the targets hard, burst is exceptional, great showing at the senior bowl covering both in the practices and in the game where he showed he belongs, gives added value as a prolific punt and kickoff returner, separates the ball from the receivers with his hits, great at attacking downhill where he is used the best as a hybrid LB/SS type (mini Jamal Adams). Weaknesses
: Can be too fast for his own good which leads to some missed tackles on tape, can take a poor angle to the ball, looks to hit more than wrap up which can create unneccessary extra yardage, always gonna be questions about small school with him and the level of competition which he partially dispelled at the senior bowl. Bottom line
: Small school prospect that blew up the senior bowl, Dugger is an ascending player who's stock continues to rise with everything he does in this draft process. There isn't much that he can't do on tape but the level of competition is obviously going to be troubling for some teams (Cowboys are one of them as they shy away from small school prospects with last one being drafted in 2013, before Will McClay era
- QB - none
- RB/flex - Antonio Gibson, Memphis, Lynn Bowden Jr, Kentucky
Both of these players are what I would call flex players as I have no idea what to do with them. Gibson is a better Tony Pollard imo. He is a converted RB who played slot receiver most of the time for Memphis and he is electric with the ball in his hands as is Lynn Bowden who is more of a slot receiver but because of Kentucky's offense he was mostly used as a wildcat RB this year getting the highest rushing grade out of all non RBs in the country. Both of these players are interesting prospects that are basically listed as athletes, they don't really fit in RB or WR category with their tape.
- WR - Isaiah Hodgins, Oregon State (WR13), Bryan Edwards, South Carolina (WR14), Michael Pittman Jr, USC (WR15), Tyler Johnson, Minesotta (WR16)
- Isaiah Hodgins, WR, Oregon State
: Great foot speed and change of direction skills for a big body at 6'4“, 210, very good route runner, natural hands catcher, jump ball threat, red zone weapon, very good slant and double move route runner, productive 2019 with 13 TDs and over 1100 yards, judges the ball well in flight, has no trouble tracking the ball on downfield shots, extends his hands to snatch the ball from air, very good at the releasing at the LOS. Weaknesses
: Pure straight line speed so the athletic testing will be big, competition was not the greatest, as weird as it sounds he is much better at moving laterally on slants and crossers and in routes than he is at going down the field and trying to be a down the field weapon, I want him to be even more physical with the body type he has. Bottom line
: I love Isaiah Hodgins. He will be a clasical case of „just trust the tape“ come April. His frame would lead you to believe he is limited in his movement but once you watch him it becomes very clear how quick his feet are and how good he is at setting the defender up and running very precise routes to beat the oposition with explosiveness in and out of his breaks. Straight line speed will be a question he needs to answer and he needs to stay in 4.5s if he is to stay this high on the board but his tape is solid. If he does not test well, he will fall a bit on the draft day but I have no question in my mind that Hodgins will be a very good player in the NFL for a pretty long time.
- Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina
: Suddenness at the LOS, very good size at 6'3, 215, shows neccessary hand usage and release techniques to beat press man coverage at the next level, good route runner for his size, shows some breakaways speed when given a little room to get going, sinks his hips and transfers his weight properly on comeback routes, very good slant runner that shields the defenders away from ball with his body, very good feel with ball in his hands and is used as a jet sweep player. Weaknesses
: Sometimes he looks like he's running in mud because he isn't the most explosive straight line athlete but has enough speed with time, much better working vertically than horizontally as a route runner, can get knocked off balance when releasing because he doesn't reduce the surface area at the LOS all the time, needs to play better above the rim, needs to continue progressing and working on his route tree. Bottom line
: Edwards is an interesting receiver. Plagued by, at best, average QB play, there are things on his tape that lead me to believe he will become a steal when he is picked in the draft. He shows very good footwork and foot speed in his releases but sometimes he overdoes it so he gets jammed up. Athletic testing will be important for him. His speed won't scare many in the NFL but he is a really sudden, tryhard receiver at the LOS that if given little bit of space can still make a house call. He played well against good corners of Alabama, he has experience going against press man coverage. He reminds me of Michael Gallup that just like Edwards, showcased ability against the best competition he faced but still went in the 3rd round.
- Michael Pittman Jr, WR, USC
: Sure hands, big body receiver at 6'4“, 220, big catch radius, highpoints the ball well, natural hands catcher, great possession receiver, shows more shiftiness than the big frame leads you to believe, great at the catch point, has no problem tracking the ball over his shoulder, adjusts to the throws well, comes back to the football, demanded double coverage from best teams he faced, has a great feel how to settle in the zone, QB friendly receiver. Weaknesses
: Limited in his releases, athletic testing will be big, did not face many press man oportunities, does not seem to have that elite breakaway speed, not a big YAC player, route tree and nuances of the route running need to be refined. Bottom line
: Very similar to Mims, Pittman is a big body, possession receiver who's athletic testing will determine a lot of draft stock. At times he shows he has the straight line speed to get away from corners but he gets caught from behind too so it will be interesting to see how he tests. He is an above the rim player that is going to be valuable for an NFL franchise. Has a great feel how to attack the ball in the air, because he isn't a nuanced route runner and his releases are limited he also has learned how to catch the ball in traffic and how to squeeze the most out of his play. He will be a great value on day 2 if you miss out on Tee Higgins.
- TE - Harrison Bryant, FAU (TE4), Bycen Hopkins, Purdue (TE5), Jared Pinkney, Vanderbilt (TE6)
- OT - Trey Adams, Washington (OT10)
- Trey Adams, OT, Washington
: Nasty attitude, finishes plays, very good grip strength in both pass pro and run game, knows how to contort and turn his man to create a hole in the run game, good at cutting defenders down, pedigree of a high end prospect, gives ground slowly if he's getting bullrushed with quick steps and hops, good anchor strength, overall very solid player that has understanding of how to play both tackle positions and has played it at a high level against very good competition for a longer period of time, good at puling and comfortable in space, reach blocks well and drives defenders back with one hand. Weaknesses
: Biggest issue is that he sometimes forgets about his footwork and crosses his feet especially if he doesn't get proper depth on his pass set and he gets threatened with speed, if he crosses his feet he is very vulnerable to counter moves and inside spins, has an extensive injury history that will probably impact his draft stock, can play off balance at times, the times he struggled the most is against the best competition he faced which isn't enocuraging. Bottom line
: It seems like Trey Adams should've been playing in the NFL for 2 or 3 years but here we are, finally, at his senior year and he's here. Plagued with injuries, if he was to declare after his excelent junior season in 2017 he would've been a top 15 pick. He decided to return for another year, year that was plagued with injuries and had him postpone his coming out party for one more year. His tape is much improved from very limited action in 2018. He seems like he is back to his old self. Very good player that has all the makings of a starting tackle in the NFL, Adams plays with an edge, plays almost nasty, has adequate feet and foot speed, is very good in space, good at contorting defenders out of the hole to create lanes for his RB. The only reason he isn't higher is because of extensive injury history and because he had a mediocre/bad showing against Utah and Bradlee Anae which was basically his best competition he faced all year. On day 2, Adams will either be a long time NFL starter or he will continue to struggle to stay healty.
- IOL - Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin (OC3), Calvin Throckmorton, Oregon (OC4)
- Calvin Throckmorton, OT/OG/OC, Oregon
: Very consistent player, strong at the point of attack, very good grip strength, latches onto the frame of the defender and turns the player to create the hole in the run game, good hand and punch placement, good anchor strength as he does not get bullrushed easily, adequate foot speed and pass set, continues moving feet on impact and drives players back and into the ground, plays very mean style of football and finishes his blocks through the whistle, very few negative plays on the tape even as a RT on an island, good at cutting backside players off with his body which looks weird but is somewhat effective even tho it isn't technically sound, very good at positioning himself to make a block in space and to shield players off from the ballcarrier even while being a slower athlete. Weaknesses
: Probably best utilized as a centeguard in the NFL as his bodytype isn't really a prototypical tackle build, doesn't have „tackle feet“, arm length might be a question as he can get belly to belly at times as a pass blocker, does not look very comfortable pulling as he looks slow and is better in a phone booth type of situation as a blocker, poor showing as a tackle in the senior bowl game. Bottom line
: Throckmorton is one of the prospects I love irrationally probably. He is consistent, very savvy as a player. He is probably better suited as a center or a guard in the NFL as his bodytype isn't ideal for the tackle position but I could see him being a good RT in the NFL too. I watched 2 years of tape on him and even tho he isn't the quickest, the strongest or the best looking athlete, he gets the job done and does not give up much. If I'm an NFL GM I know what Throckmorton is and at least if he can't play the tackle he will be a starting caliber center or guard in the NFL. I am also much higher on him than most people and I curently don't know why. Throckmorton is as solid as it gets in this draft class but he might not fit all the checkboxes that pro scouts or GMs are looking for in a tackle.
- DT - Marlon Davidson, Auburn (DT7), Leki Fotu, Utah (DT8),
- Marlon Davidson, DT, Auburn (3T)
: Quickness of the snap when playing interior, great showing in senior bowl practices where he showed bulked up which pleasantly surprised me, plays with some power and doesn't lose leverage when setting the edge, pass rushes well from the inside, very hard to stop, plays with some attitude. Weaknesses
: Used the wrong way as an edge defender in Auburns scheme which limited the number of plays he makes, needs to get stronger to become a full time 3T Bottom line
: Player that was used in a wrong way in Auburn defense and his play showed. He is not an edge defender. He's a 3T and he showed up bulked up to the senior bowl which was great to see. I believe he has some of the highest pass rushing upside from a 3T from this whole class but he is undersized curently and will need to get stronger and bulk up to play 3T full time Strengths
: Size, strength, anchor strength, block deconstruction, very good run defender, best pass rushing pure NT in the class for my money, quick feet for his size, great arm over move to free himself of defenders on passing downs, smart player that understands how to play the game and what he needs to do, understands what the offensive scheme is trying to do to him, plays hard. Weaknesses
: Not enough pass rush to be ranked higher, not diverse in his pass rush outside of the arm over and bull rush move, when stopped in his pass rush often quits because of the lack of pass rush moves, anchor suffers if his pad level gets too high. Bottom line
: Pure NT, Fotu is best used as a 2 down run stopper. He isn't hopeless if first 2 downs are passing downs tho as he he creates the most push from pure NT position I've seen in this draft class. Pretty straight forward player that will make his living as a run stopper and will probably end up having a long NFL career out of it.
- EDGE - Kenny Willekes, Michigan State (EDGE13), Jason Strowbridge (EDGE14), Alton Robinson, Syracuse (EDGE15)
- Kenny Willekes, EDGE, Michigan State
: Unrivaled motor, great kid that loves the game, fierce competitor, knows how to use his hands to control the blockers hands constantly, wins mostly with outside speed rush or speed to power, very hard to contain by a single blocker, backfield disruptor with penetration, very steady player with who you know what you're getting every snap, enough strength in run game, understands leverage and plays with good pad level, could be a fit for almost every scheme, pro ready player that has had a productive career. Weaknesses
: Looks much smaller and lighter than listed 6'4“, 260, needs to diversify his pass rush repertoair and his approach, can have a hard time shedding blockers hands in the run game at times, needs to use more counter moves once his initial move gets stopped, can get overwhelmed at the point of attack by double teams, unsure about his best fit because he looks like a OLB but rushes almost exclusively with his hand down, arm length is a big knock. Bottom line
: My favourite EDGE prospect, Willekes does not take plays off, ever. Hard nose, workman like, absolute menace on the line of scrimmage, I would bet Willekes will have a long and productive NFL career. He might not be the most naturally gifted or the biggest or the most polished pass rusher in this class but he is an absolute force on the field. Constantly making plays, disrupting with penetration both in run and in the pass game, never stops playing. Projects better as a situational pass rusher for the start of his NFL career but with time, I have no doubt that Willekes will be a true 3 down DE on the next level. His attitude, his work ethic and his play will make sure it happens.
- Alton Robinson, DE, Syracuse
: Very productive 2018 with 10 sacks, well built for a 4-3 DE at 6'4“, 260, often commands double teams, shows rare explosiveness in his pass rush at times, possesses natural ability to capture the edge, get to the outside shoulder of the tackle and turn the corner, when he is on he is a violent player that plays through the whistle, has a natural ability to dip around his blocker, uses his hands fairly well when using speed rush. Weaknesses
: Off the field issues, regressed statistically in 2019 from a great statistical 2018, lackluster run defender, loses gap integrity in run game at times, fooled by misdirection plays routinely, can stop playing and take false steps, pad level is often out of order leaving him doing nothing on the play once he is initially blocked. Bottom line
: Robinson is a polarizing player in simple fact that he has played pretty well but the production is missing in 2019. He has gotten high praise from Clemson coaches that said he is one of the best players they've gone against this year. Off the field issues are well documented and he could become a steal of the draft if he is in the right situation. Very talented player with innate pass rushing skills and abilities but his stock will vary depending from team to team.
- LB - Troy Dye, Oregon (LB8)
- CB - Bryce Hall, Virginia (CB11), Troy Pride Jr, Notre Dame (CB12)
- S - Jeremy Chinn, Southern Illinois (S6), Terrell Burgess, Utah (S7), J.R Reed, Georgia (S8), K'Von Wallace, Clemson (S9)
- Jeremy Chinn, S, Southern Illinois
: Extremely physical player, rangy, athletic and big NFL ready frame (6'3“, 212) that can be used in varity of ways, can be played all over formation (SS, FS and LB on tape), people stopper, does not shy away from contact in run game, nasty attitude, good in man coverage, plus breaks on the ball, understands the defense he plays in, played well against best competition he faced, makes it tough on players he covers, production (13 INTs, 31 PDs in 4 years). Weaknesses
: Competition level, sometimes needs to tone down the physicality he plays with which gets him in trouble with ejections, can allow some receptions in the passing game even after being in good position to make a play on the ball, needs to learn when to just turn his hips and run before letting too much of his cushion disappear. Bottom line
: Jeremy Chinn is my favourite safety prospect from this draft class. Coming from a smaller schol of Southern Illinois, the competition level is basically the only thing keeping me from having him ranked higher. He has dispelled some notions about this at the senior bowl. Extremely physical, smart and rangy, Chinn is used as a SS, FS and sub package LB at times. Absolute stud for his competition level.
If anyone made it this far, you are a champion.
I hope you find it informative and thanks for reading once again.
Also, if any of you guys are interested, I have a twitter profile linked to my reddit profile where I dump all-22 college clips (until and if they get taken down). I take clips while watching prospects so that I can remind myself what kind of player they are once I'm writing a report or discussing them.
Edit: Formating and put Jeremy Chinn in the wrong round with how my board stacks. He is correctly placed now.
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