No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 9 Michigan State Preview: Game Time

NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2020

We have talked a lot about the draft, biggest remaining needs for every NFL team, some breakout candidates and other stuff, so let’s now get back to more of a big picture and look at some teams from an angle of where could they go next season. In this article, I am analyzing those teams that finished fourth in their division this past year and why they could win it in 2020 or land at the bottom once again, plus an outlook where I actually see them.
Of course much of this is about these eight teams and how much better or worse I feel about them than the general public, but it was heavily dependent on their three division rivals as well. The top half I could certainly see earn a playoff spot and surprise some people if everything goes right. After that a lot of my faith is more built around the lack of great competition and giving some hope to these respective fan bases. As the cliché goes – everybody is 0-0 right now.

1. Arizona Cardinals

Why they can win the division:
Let’s just start with the main point here – this Cardinals squad has all the ingredients to make a big jump in 2020. I expect Kyler Murray to enter the superstar conversation in year two, after impressing with his arm talent and ability to extend plays in a (somewhat controversial) Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Steve Keim managed to unload a bad David Johnson contract and basically acquire an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for a second-round pick. Kenyan Drake now has a full offseason to learn this offense and make himself a major factor once again, following up an outstanding second half of the season once the Cardinals traded for him with Miami. He perfectly fits into this offense with a lot East-West based rushing from shotgun sets and his involvement in the pass game, including those quick throws as an extension of the rushing attack. Arizona’s defense should be a lot better with run-stoppers being added in the draft that fit their 3-4 base front with Utah’s Leki Fotu and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence, since they can stay in those packages against the other teams in their division running a lot of 12 and 21 personnel probably. Add to that a do-it-all player with ridiculous range and overall athleticism in Isaiah Simmons at eight overall, plus all the other guys being in their second year under DC Vance Joseph. I love Budda Baker as a missile from his safety spot and I think some of the other young guys on that unit will take a step forward, like second-year corner Byron Murphy, who I talked about last week. Now let’s get to rest of the West – every other team in that division has some issues. The 49ers are facing the objects of a potential Super Bowl hangover and some limitations with Jimmy G at the helm. The Seahawks have question marks on the edge on either side of the ball with Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell fighting for the starting gig at right tackle and Jadeveon Clowney still on the open market, with a bunch of draft picks these last couple of years having to step up. And the Rams had one of the worst O-lines in football last season and they lost some pieces on defense. The Cardinals already gave all these teams issues in 2019 and have now added pieces that were clearly missing when last matching up against each other.

Why they could finish last again:
Most importantly, I am still not completely sold on the Cardinals offensive line, with D.J. Humphries being signed to a rather expensive deal as a below-average left tackle, third-rounder Josh Jones – while earning a late first-round grade from me – still needing an overhaul on his footwork before he can slide in at right tackle and guard Justin Pugh finally having played a full 16 games for the first time since 2015 last season. NFL coaches had a lot of time to study Kliff Kingsbury’s Air-Raid offense, which when you break it down is pretty simplistic in the amount of schemes they run. Yes, he diversified it a little as last season went along, going under center and running some pro-style rushing plays, but at its core, you can learn how to create some issues for all those mesh concepts and spread sets. As far as the Cardinals defense goes, it is more about pieces than proven commodities. Patrick Peterson is seemingly on the decline, they are thin in the secondary and could Chandler Jones follow soon, after he has been one of the most underrated pass-rushers in the league for a while now? You are staring the reigning NFC champs in the eyes, a team that was a few inches away from earning a playoff bye and another squad that went to the Super Bowl just two years ago. This is probably the best division in the entire league.

Bottom line:
I still believe the 49ers have done enough to repeat as division champs, re-tooling for all the losses they have suffered this offseason. However, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals earning a wildcard spot. While I believe in the Seahawks quarterback and the Rams head coach respectively to not allow their teams to not have throwaway seasons, I also see enough issues with those squads to make me believe the Cardinals could have the second-best year of anybody in the West. To me they are pretty clearly the best of these eight teams, because they have a young phenom at quarterback, stars at pretty much every position, a different type of system around them and what I’d like to call “juice” coming into 2020.

2. Detroit Lions

Why they can win the division:
Matt Stafford is back healthy and when he was in the lineup last season, this was a team that defeated the Eagles, Chargers and only didn’t finish the job against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs because of some crazy stuff going on late. The veteran QB stood at 19 touchdowns compared to five picks and was playing at a near-MVP type level. However, Detroit’s identity will be built on the run game with re-investments in the offensive line as well as adding D’Andre Swift to form a dynamic one-two punch with him and Kerryon Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones may be the most underrated receiving duo to go with Danny Amendola as a tough guy in the slot and T.J. Hockenson coming into year two as a top-ten pick a year ago, having shown flashes when he was healthy. The defense is finally starting to take shape with third-overall Jeffrey Okudah as an elite corner prospect being added to an underrated secondary, Jamie Collins being a chess piece in the front seven after already having worked well with Matt Patricia and some young guys up front trying to prove themselves to go with the versatile Trey Flowers. Maybe more importantly than the Lions themselves – Nobody else got that much better and none of the other three really stand out to me. Other than the Vikings probably – who had the advantage of making a record-breaking 15 selections – the Lions might have had the best draft within the division. Thanks to that last-place schedule, they get to face the Redskins in the East (instead of Eagles & Cowboys) and Cardinals in the West, who I just talked about taking a step forward, but are still a better draw than the reigning conference champions or possibly having to travel to Seattle. I believe that new regime in Detroit has finally built an identity on both sides of the ball with the heavy investments in the run game and back-seven on defense. Winning ten games might earn you a division title, if everybody plays each other tough.

Why they could finish last again:
Can these guys finally stay healthy? Matt Stafford to my surprise played a full 16 games in eight straight years before last season, but a lot of that had to do with his toughness to fight through pain and he had major issues with that shoulder early on in his career before basically breaking his back after putting the team on it for the last decade. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 of 32 possible starts and he has never carried the ball more than 118 times a season. Their receiving corp has been banged up quite a bit too. More glaring even – how will all these additions of former Patriots players work out? Can Matt Patricia build a New England 2.0 in Michigan or is he just bringing in players he knows will listen to him and the way he wants things to be done? Detroit could also rely on a lot of rookies to be immediate impact players – possibly two new starting guards on offense, running back D’Andre Swift probably sharing the load with Kerryon, Jeffrey Okudah having to immediately become their CB1 and Julian Okwara being asked to become a much more consistent player if they give him major snaps. And I recently talked about how their uncertainty at punter could be an issue for their ball-control, defense-minded style of play. They also have an early bye (week five), which I’m never a big fan of, after facing the Bears, Packers, Cardinals and Saints, which probably includes three playoff teams. If Chicago can get any competent QB play, all these teams should be highly competitive.

Bottom line:
I don’t think any team in this division wins more than ten games. Unfortunately I don’t see the Lions go over that mark themselves either. The Packers won’t come out victorious in so many close games (8-1 in one-possession affairs), the Vikings have lost a few proven commodities and look for young talent to immediately replace those and the Bears still have a quarterback competition going on. So if Detroit can do any better than just split the season series with those three teams, I see them finishing above .500, but ten wins is the ceiling for me. In terms of the competition inside the division, the Lions may be my number one team in this conversation, but I see a much clearer path to things crashing down for Matt Patricia and them having another disappointing season than I do with the Cardinals. No team in this division may finish below that 8-8 mark.

3. Miami Dolphins

Why they can win the division:
When you ask the general public, the Buffalo Bills right now are the favorites to win the AFC East, but they haven’t done so since 1995 and they still have to prove they really are that team. The Patriots lost several pieces on defense and Tom Brady of course, which probably leads them to starting a quarterback, who over his four career pass attempts has thrown more touchdowns to the opposing team than to his own. The Jets are still building up that roster, with GM Joe Douglas trying to plant seeds on burnt earth, and they face a BRUTAL schedule. So Miami has a lot of things going in their favor for an organization that I believe in what they are trying to build. Depending on what happens at quarterback, you could have a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was by far the best inside the division in several key categories last season and/or Tua Tagovailoa, who had one of the most prolific careers we have seen from anybody in the SEC. They added at least two new starters on the O-line, they now have one of the premiere cornerback trios in the league with the all-time highest paid player at the position in Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene to go with Xavien Howard and with some added beef up front, they are finally looking a lot like what Brian Flores had in New England. DeVante Parker really broke out over the second half of 2019 and Miami should have a much better rushing attack because of the additions up front and two quality committee backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida being added. They have two other young pass-catchers ready to break out this upcoming season in tight-end Mike Gesicki and a UDFA receiver from a year ago in Preston Williams. Whenever Tua’s name is called upon, he will be a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s horizontal passing game.

Why they could finish last again:
As much as I like what I see from this entire organization, it is probably just a year too early for Miami. So many young players could be thrown into the fire and a lot of them I look at as needing that experience – 18th overall pick Austin Jackson (USC) is more of a developmental tackle still with his footwork and hand-placement issues, 30th overall pick Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn) has only played cornerback for two years and was bailed out by his athletic tools at times, third-rounder Brandon Jones has to develop more of a feel in deep coverage and at least one more rookie lineman will likely start for them. Even outside of this year’s draft class, they already had several players on their roster that are still moving towards their prime. Whether you look at last year’s first-rounder Christian Wilkins, a lot of second- and third-year pass-catchers or their young linebackers outside of Kyle Van Noy. The Bills are entering year four of that turn-around under Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, the Patriots still have the greatest coach of all time and will be a tough matchup solely based on that and the Jets at least have people playing for their jobs, plus a very talented young quarterback I still believe in. As much as I doubt Adam Gase, as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get mono again, the offense should at least be competent, and the defense could potentially have a top-five player at every level with All-Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams, an 85-million dollar linebacker in C.J. Mosley and my number one prospect in last year’s draft on the interior D-line with Quinnen Williams.

Bottom line:
As I mentioned before, the Bills are the front-runners in this division for me. As much respect as I have for Bill Belichick, I haven’t seen enough from Jarrett Stidham to make me a believer and he shrunk in some big moments at Auburn. The Jets to me could be a lot better than they were in 2019 and still go 6-10 just because of the type of schedule they are up against. So the Dolphins to me could easily finish anywhere from second to fourth, depending on how some of the players on that roster progress. I wouldn’t bet on them actually making the playoffs, but they could absolutely be a pain in the butt for some of the better teams in the AFC and in 2021 they might be the pick here.

4. Los Angeles Chargers

Why they can win the division:
First and foremost, this Chargers defense is absolutely loaded with no real hole that you can point to. Derwin James is back healthy after a first-team All-Pro rookie campaign, Chris Harris Jr. comes in to make this secondary one the elite units in the NFL to go with two more Pro Bowlers among it and they have some guys I expect to break out like Jerry Tillery, Drue Tranquill and Nasir Adderley. In terms of having matchup pieces and a versatile pass rush to challenge Kansas City, nobody in the league may be on the same level as these guys. Offensively, Ihave talked about how the left tackle spot is concern for L.A. with a battle between Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins for the starting job, but the other four spots are as good as they have been in a while, acquiring Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner via trade, signing a top five right tackle in Bryan Bulaga and getting Mike Pouncey back healthy. Tyrod Taylor can steer the ship and even if Justin Herbert is thrown into the fire – which I wouldn’t recommend – they have the skill-position players and willingness to run the ball to take pressure off those guys. While the Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters from a year ago, this wouldn’t be the first time we saw a Super Bowl champion have some issues the following season and as much as we want to hype up the Broncos and Raiders, both their quarterbacks (and other players of course as well) have a lot to prove still. Outside of KC, the Chargers likely have the smallest changes to what they do other than moving on from Philip Rivers and we saw that formula work the year prior, when they challenged Kansas City until the very end for the division crown and the conference’s top seed potentially. While they probably would have liked to bring in Tom Brady over the offseason, the fact they decided against signing Cam Newton to a roster that is ready to win right now, shows you the confidence they have in that quarterback room.

Why they could finish last again:
I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, but the Chargers will probably have the worst quarterback in the division in 2020. And their starting left tackle could be the worst in the entire league. As good as their defense will probably be, you can not consistently win games in which your offense doesn’t put up 20+ points in the league today – especially when all these teams in their division have spent so much on acquiring offensive firepower these last couple of years. I believe all three of their division rivals got better this offseason and the Chargers spent their top draft pick (sixth overall) on a young quarterback, who might not even help them win games this season. As I already mentioned, Kansas City brings back almost their entire starting lineups and they went 12-4 despite Mahomes seemingly having his knee cap facing the sideline while laying on his back. I have uttered my thoughts on Denver several times now, which you can read up on later. As for Las Vegas’ new team, they did start last season 6-4 and just heavily invested into their two major issues – wide receiver and linebacker. And while I don’t like to talk about it – injuries have been a huge issue for this Chargers team in recent years and I don’t really know what it is even, but I can’t assume that they all of a sudden can stay healthy.

Bottom line:
In terms of talent on the roster outside of the quarterback position, you could make a pretty compelling argument that the Chargers are ahead of all the other teams on this list. That’s the reason they have a pretty high floor of finishing around .500 and if everything works out, they could absolutely be a playoff contender. However, for this exercise in particular, I believe their upside is capped by what they have under center. Tyrod Taylor can be a top-20 quarterback in the NFL this season and in terms of upside, Justin Herbert has all the tools to become a difference-maker once he steps on the field, but they don’t have the explosiveness the Chiefs or the Broncos have for that matter. With so much continuity on a team that has the best player in the entire league, I can’t go against the Chiefs and in the end we are evaluating the chances to actually win the division.

5. Washington Redskins

Why they can win the division:
These guys are very reminiscent of the 49ers with their defensive line, in terms of having invested a lot of high draft picks into the unit these last couple of years and now with that second overall pick bringing in a true stud from Ohio State – this time in Chase Young. When you look at all those guys up front – with the Bama boys patrolling the middle, Matt Ioannidis capable of moving around the front, Montez Sweat looking to break out in year two and Ryan Kerrigan still being there as a productive veteran – they will wreak some havoc this season. Ron Rivera could finally bring some structure to this organization and help them turn it around on defense with the addition of an old companion in Thomas Davis, plus some high-upside players like Reuben Foster and Fabian Moreau looking to prove themselves. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a very underwhelming rookie campaign, but he clearly wasn’t ready to be out there and found himself in a bad situation in terms of the support system around him. I like a lot of their young skill-position players the front office has surrounded him with, when you look at Terry McLaurin trying to become a young star in this league, who produced despite shaky quarterback play last season, Kelvin Harmon and Antonio Gandy-Golden being two big-bodied targets I liked these last two drafts, Derrius Guice hopefully finally being able to stay healthy to lead this backfield and this year’s third-round pick Antonio Gibson being a chess piece that you can manufacture touches for. Somebody I forgot to mention in this discussion recently is Steven Sims Jr., who is a jitterbug with the ball in his hands. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner will implement a system that should make life easier on his second-year signal-caller as well, while relying heavily on the run game.

Why they could finish last again:
Haskins is by far the least proven QB of the bunch, with Daniel Jones even being head and shoulders above him in their respective rookie seasons. No pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin had any major production to speak. Counting on a 37-year old Thomas Davis to not only be a leader for them, but also make plays on the field, could create issues, and Washington lost some pieces in the secondary. This offseason is a challenge for any team, that is looking to implement a new system on each side of the ball, but I think especially for a motivator like Rivera, who can give his squad a heartbeat and push them to success, not being there in person with those guys will hurt. Most importantly however, this division to me will be a two-man race between the Eagles and Cowboys – as it has been for a while now. They both will likely have top ten quarterbacks, better receiving corps, better offensive lines and more experienced defenses. The Giants may not blow anybody away coming into 2020, but looking at the two matchups from last year between them and the Redskins, Big Blue beat them 24-3 the first time around, when Daniel Jones threw one touchdown compared to two interceptions and then he diced them up for five TDs and no picks in week 16. The one area Washington would have had the clear upper hand was with their front-four, but New York just invested a lot of draft capital into their O-line to prevent that. Just go through the Redskins’ schedule and show me more than six wins. I dare you.

Bottom line:
These last two sentences really say it all. Even if Philly and Dallas split the season series and Washington can get a game off either one of them, it will be tough to turn around this squad as quickly as this season – with reduced practice time and team activities – to a point where they can finish above both of them. Both of them could easily win double-digit games in 2020 and while I think the Redskins are on the right track if Haskins looks more like the Ohio State version of himself, other than their defensive line, no unit for them is ready to compete for the division quite yet. Just going through their schedule in an objective manner, it is tough to find any lay-ups and say Washington has some baseline of wins they count on. To not have them any lower than this is more due to the respect for Riverboat Ron and how high I was on a lot of the guys they drafted recently.

6. Jacksonville Jaguars

Why they can win the division:
I was going back and forth between my number six and seven teams, because the Jaguars are projected to pick first overall come next April for a reason – they did lose a lot of pieces. However, to me it came down to the fact that the AFC South might be won at 9-7 or 10-6 and this coaching staff actually has to win to keep their jobs. There is a lot noise about the Colts, but when you go back to last season, Philip Rivers was a turnover machine with serious questions about his arm strength. Bill O’Brien made some very questionable decisions for Houston and Tennessee is counting on a formula that is built on a 250-banger running the ball 25+ times and Ryan Tannehill finally repeating a career year, as they are coming off an AFC title game appearance. As far as Jacksonville goes, Gardner Minshew was the highest-graded rookie quarterback according to PFF and altogether I would have put him second only behind Kyler Murray. D.J. Chark broke out as one of the young star receivers and I had a first-round grade on Colorado’s Laviska Shenault if he can be healthy, because his talent is off the charts. I think the O-line would have benefitted from another tackle to kick Cam Robinson inside to guard, but those guys are some road-graders to make the run game work. Defensively the only real contributor from that Sacksonville group a couple of years ago who actually wants to be there is Myles Jack, but I really like their young duo off the edge in first-rounders Josh Allen last year and now K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU). There are some questions about the back-end, but they were built front-to-back with a lot of zone coverage behind it and depending on the development of ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, they can roll away from him matching up with the opposing team’s number one receiver. Avoiding some of the better AFC squads altogether is pretty sweet as well, to go with facing no playoff team from last year outside their division until the middle of November.

Why they could finish last again:
I’m just not sure if all of these players are ready to fight for that coaching staff and organization. Two of their remaining veterans (Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue) have openly talked about how they want to be traded, they only have a few actually proven commodities on that entire roster and with the way they have unloaded big cap numbers, they have set themselves up for a true rebuild potentially, as they are expected to be in the Trevor Lawrence-Justin Fields sweepstakes come next April. Even if they can get a few breaks and the division is up for grabs, does this organization even want to win this season? If not for the injury to Jacoby Brissett in the middle of the season, all three other teams in that division would have almost certainly finished above .500 and the Colts are actually the team that improved by far the most among them. That Texans, who have actually won the South four of the last five years, including last season, may be the smallest challenge and still sweep Jacksonville. Vegas rarely misses completely and the Jaguars right now are the odds-on favorite to pick first overall come next April, with an NFL-low OveUnder of 4.5 wins on the season. And as favorable as the early portion of their schedule looks like right, check out this eight-game stretch after their week seven bye – at Chargers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Ravens. Ouch. They might go winless over that period.

Bottom line:
The Jaguars to me are a very interesting team, because I believe they have accumulated a bunch of young talent, which gets lost a little when you see all the names that aren’t there anymore. There is a lot to like about this roster, when you look at what these players could develop into, but that doesn’t mean they will have success this year already. The Colts have the best 53 currently in the division (or 55 now), the Texans have the best quarterback and the Titans are coming off an AFC Championship game appearance. Gardner Minshew could make this kind of a tough decision if they end up picking anywhere after first overall and I think some of those other kids will put up pretty good numbers, but they are still pretty clearly fourth in the South as for now.

7. Carolina Panthers

Why they can win the division:
Nobody knows for sure what Matt Rhule and his new coaching staff will throw at them. Joe Brady gets to work with Teddy Bridgewater once again, who he already coached in New Orleans – so there will be familiarity for him in this system and they already “speak the same language”. That young receiving corp with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, free agency addition Robby Anderson and even an up-and-coming tight-end in Ian Thomas is pretty underrated actually, plus of course they have one of the truly elite weapons out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who is probably set to break his own RB reception record once again. The Panthers defense-only draft has brought them a monster in the middle in Derrick Brown (Auburn), a really talented edge rusher in Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) on the opposite of last year’s rookie stud Brian Burns, a super-rangy safety with linebacker size in Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), what I think is a starting corner in Troy Pride Jr. (Notre Dame) and some other pieces in the secondary. The talent is clearly there and now you bring in a scheme that is probably going to be unique for the NFL level as well, when you look at that 3-3-5 Baylor ran under Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. As much as we want to praise our legends of the game, the quarterbacks of the two front-runners in this division will be 41 and 43 years old respectively and let’s not forget that Atlanta started out last season 1-7.

Why they could finish last again:
Especially this offseason, without certainty if there will be anything like training camp or even a real preseason, that completely new staff with new systems they are trying to teach will certainly have some growing pains. Bridgewater has been a top-20 starting QB maybe one year of his career and even when he was applauded for the way he filled in for Drew Brees last season, he finished dead-last in intended air yards among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. How will that mesh with a lot of vertical targets around him? When he has those guys running free on slants and dig routes, the ball will get there, but will he be willing to throw that deep post or give his guys a chance on go-balls? Defensively they are counting on a lot of young players and they have nobody to even come close to replacing Luke Kuechly, as well as making the switch to an unproven scheme possibly, if they actually use some of those 3-3-5 looks coming over from Baylor. When you look at Rhule’s track-record, it always took him until year two to show improvement and then in that third season is when those teams can really make some noise. And that was in the AAC and Big 12 respectively. Now he is in the NFC South with a team that just went 13-3 in the Saints and a Bucs squad that already was 7-9 and lost six of those games by one score, only because despite finishing fifth in takeaways, they ranked in the bottom five in turnover differential due to easily leading the league with 41 giveaways. That should get a lot better with Tom Brady coming in, who has never even quite thrown half of Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions in any of his 20 years in the league. Even the Falcons – for as poorly as they started last season – went 6-2 after really coming together and making some changes in their bye week last season.

Bottom line:
The Panthers are clearly the most unproven team in this division. While new systems that haven’t been scouted yet certainly have an advantage in terms of game-planning early on, especially in this offseason with heavily limited live reps most likely, that might equal a net minus. You have to root for a guy like Teddy Bridgewater and the way he has worked his way up to a starting spot again, but I just don’t look at him as a surefire franchise signal-caller. The other three teams in the South all have top ten quarterbacks in the league in my opinion and much more continuity around them. Until the Panthers finally get to their bye week at the start of December, I don’t see them winning more than four of those twelve games. At that point they may have their eyes on a different goal already, if Teddy B isn’t the clear answer under center.

8. Cincinnati Bengals

Why they can win the division:
We’re not that far away from 2015, when the Bengals won the AFC North with a 12-4 record as the fifth year in a row making the playoffs. Since then this is the first time I feel like there really is change happening with this team. Marvin Lewis was replaced by a young Zac Taylor, trying to prove himself to the league, they drafted Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow first overall to replace as average a quarterback as we have had over the last decade in Andy Dalton and the front office finally spent some money in free agency. While you would think a quarterback going first overall usually comes into a situation, where he is devoid of talent around him, Cincinnati suddenly has one of the better group of skill-position players in the entire league, assuming A.J. Green is back healthy. Tyler Boyd is a stud in the slot, who will be Burrow’s version of Justin Jefferson, a 50-50 ball specialist in second-round pick Tee Higgins (Clemson) matches perfectly with Burrow’s expertise of winning with ball-placement and if they get anything from former first-rounder John Ross at least as a decoy with his speed, that’s a plus. I expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leader’s in running back receptions and be more effective in space with those receivers around him as well. The signings the Bengals have made on defense gives them a lot more talent and complements very well what they already had. D.J. Reader is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league and frees everybody up along the front, they completely overhauled that linebacker group, which was a major issue these last couple of years, they brought in a starting CB2 and nickel from Minnesota to pair up with William Jackson III, who is ready to announce himself as one of the best corners in football, and Von Bell is a great match with the rangy free safety Jessie Bates.

Why they could finish last again:
As talented as all those guys throwing, catching and running the ball may be, it all starts with what’s happening up front and the Bengals offensive line is still in transition. They could have two of the worst starters in the league at both guard spots and right tackle once again, with the prior ones close to reaching that bust status and Bobby Hart still somehow having a starting job. As great as Joe Burrow was last year at LSU and how clean his evaluation was, how much better than Andy Dalton will he be right away, especially going up against those scary defensive fronts inside his division? Defensively they could easily have six new starters, which obviously can be looked at as a positive sign, considering they allowed 20+ points in all but two games last season, but there is also a lack of continuity and reduced time to fit all those pieces together. Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t really proven anything yet and they will be facing a massacre of a schedule, with three occasions of back-to-back road games and while three of their final four games of the season are at home, they will face the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens, to go with a trip to Houston in-between. If they don’t beat the Chargers in the season-opener, they probably don’t get that first W until week four against the Jaguars and then they have to hope they can sneak out another one until their bye week. Baltimore is tied with Kansas City for the highest projected win total with reigning MVP coming into just his third season, Pittsburgh is favored to make the playoffs with Big Ben back under center and Cleveland was the offseason favorite in 2019, while fielding an even better roster this year.

Bottom line:
I feel bad for putting this team last, because I thought Joe Burrow was the top quarterback and definitely worthy of that number one pick and the Bengals finally spent big money in free agency to retool the defense. To me this is less about them than the Ravens, who just were the number one overall seed in the playoffs at 14-2 and haven’t done anything other than get better themselves, a Steelers team that made a run at the playoffs with the worst quarterback play in the league now getting Ben back and a Browns roster that is among the top ten league-wide in most people’s opinion. Still, there is a lot to like about this team at the skill-positions, which is probably behind only Cleveland in terms all the weapons they have, some young standouts on defense and hope that all of this brings a fresh breath of air.

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Rankings: Every D1 Team vs. Spread Since 2011 (Cumulative) - UVA, MSU, Nova on top

Since 2011 (as far back as I have data), how has each team done vs. the spread?
Specifically, if you bet $110 on every single game to beat the spread (which wins you $100 profit) since 2011, where would you be today? The chart below shows.
Interestingly, a lot of the best teams of the era were also the best vs. the spread. Coincidence? I'm not sure, honestly. Someone has to be best vs. the spread, and assuming it's a bell curve (and it is) someone will be 2+ standard deviations ahead. But there's no a priori reason it should be UVA and MSU instead of e.g. Washington State or St. Peter's.
(To pre-answer a question, sometimes you can win more money with fewer net wins vs. the spread because losses hurt you more than wins benefit you, and not every game gets a spread.)
Additional data / year-by-year cuts
Team Money Won Lines Set **Net Wins vs. Spread % Games Won & Beat Spread Points Above Spread
1 Virginia Cavaliers $4430 275 55 55.27% 559
2 Michigan State Spartans $3940 290 51 54.14% 440
3 Villanova Wildcats $3610 290 48 54.48% 329
4 South Dakota State Jackrabbits $3550 259 46 53.28% 593.5
5 Utah Utes $3200 272 43 44.49% 310.5
6 Wichita State Shockers $2340 276 35 52.54% 273
7 Tulsa Golden Hurricane $2290 264 34 45.08% 131
8 Yale Bulldogs $2070 201 29 47.26% 109.5
9 Gonzaga Bulldogs $1570 281 28 52.67% 525
10 Creighton Blue Jays $1480 277 27 50.54% 312
11 Buffalo Bulls $1420 270 26 46.67% 447.5
12 Saint Josephs-Pennsylvania Hawks $1410 206 23 46.12% 131.5
13 Houston Cougars $1410 250 25 47.2% 381.5
14 Davidson College Wildcats $1370 274 26 49.27% 134.5
15 Robert Morris Colonials $1350 109 18 44.04% -62.5
16 North Florida Ospreys $1350 108 18 38.89% 48.5
17 Northwestern State Demons $1330 74 16 29.73% 4
18 North Carolina Tar Heels $1290 296 26 50% 289.5
19 Georgia Bulldogs $1280 272 25 39.71% 203.5
20 Texas-Arlington Mavericks $1260 239 23 43.1% 231
21 Hartford Hawks $1250 87 16 42.53% 105.5
22 Oregon Ducks $1240 285 25 49.82% 315
23 Seton Hall Pirates $1170 275 24 43.64% 140
24 IUPU-Fort Wayne Mastadons $1130 242 22 40.5% 213
25 New Mexico State Aggies $1070 190 19 48.95% 352.5
26 Southeastern Louisiana Lions $1070 80 14 32.5% 102
27 California-Irvine Anteaters $1060 281 23 45.2% 185
28 William & Mary $1060 212 20 41.98% 47
29 Furman Paladins $1030 236 21 42.8% 187
30 Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix $1030 262 22 41.98% 87.5
31 Kansas Jayhawks $990 290 23 52.41% 66.5
32 Purdue Boilermakers $980 274 22 45.99% 299
33 Vermont Catamounts $940 112 14 48.21% 119
34 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets $920 264 21 35.98% -21
35 San Diego State Aztecs $910 271 21 49.08% 140
36 Wofford Terriers $870 253 20 43.08% 298.5
37 Saint Francis-Pennsylvania Red Flash $840 85 12 42.35% -89.5
38 Mississippi Rebels $820 281 21 40.57% -18
39 Florida International Panthers $770 232 18 34.91% 99.5
40 Nevada Wolf Pack $760 277 20 45.13% 138
41 Colgate Red Raiders $750 104 12 42.31% 146.5
42 Louisville Cardinals $740 282 20 47.16% 383
43 Providence Friars $740 279 20 44.44% 332.5
44 North Carolina Central Eagles $740 108 12 40.74% 166
45 Gardner Webb Runnin Bulldogs $730 106 12 42.45% 106.5
46 Norfolk State Spartans $720 110 12 35.45% 69
47 Tennessee State Tigers $660 233 17 33.48% 25.5
48 North Carolina State Wolfpack $650 275 19 43.64% 114.5
49 Fresno State Bulldogs $620 259 18 38.61% 295.5
50 Maryland Terrapins $610 268 18 44.03% 84
51 Saint Bonaventure Bonnies $600 265 18 46.04% 287
52 California Baptist $590 51 8 45.1% 51.5
53 Northern Illinois Huskies $540 258 17 32.17% -17
54 Southern University A&M Jaguars $540 105 10 34.29% 13.5
55 Army Black Knights $520 107 10 42.06% -37.5
56 South Dakota Coyotes $480 246 16 38.62% 139
57 Merrimack Warriors $480 30 6 56.67% -8
58 California-Santa Barbara Gauchos $480 247 16 41.7% 66.5
59 Iowa State Cyclones $470 269 17 44.98% 403.5
60 Prairie View A&M $470 97 9 36.08% 140.5
61 Manhattan Jaspers $460 270 17 41.11% 76.5
62 Hofstra Pride $440 256 16 40.23% 4.5
63 East Tennessee State Buccaneers $420 193 13 45.08% 125
64 Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks $420 236 15 30.08% 193
65 Lipscomb Bison $410 108 9 37.04% 84.5
66 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs $380 244 15 45.9% 80
67 Georgia Southern Eagles $370 248 15 38.71% 248
68 No.Carolina A&T $340 59 6 35.59% 90.5
69 Murray State Racers $340 252 15 46.43% 228.5
70 Fairleigh Dickinson-Metropolitan Knights $320 83 7 36.14% 197
71 Seattle University Red Hawks $310 129 9 37.21% 107
72 Iowa Hawkeyes $280 268 15 45.9% 129
73 Florida A&M $270 93 7 33.33% 64
74 Sam Houston State Bearkats $270 95 7 41.05% 34.5
75 Texas Rio Grande Vaqueros $250 80 6 32.5% 92
76 North Alabama $240 57 5 28.07% 25.5
77 Winthrop Eagles $230 102 7 38.24% -52.5
78 Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans $230 251 14 39.04% 9.5
79 San Francisco Dons $210 258 14 39.92% 143
80 Campbell Fighting Camels $200 86 6 37.21% -18.5
81 California State-Bakersfield Roadrunners $180 70 5 31.43% 48.5
82 Stetson Hatters $170 93 6 23.66% -21.5
83 Michigan Wolverines $160 287 15 48.78% 318.5
84 Utah Valley Wolverines $40 100 5 35% 22
85 Arizona Wildcats $30 294 14 50.34% 246
86 Indiana Hoosiers $10 276 13 45.65% 213.5
87 Dayton Flyers $0 277 13 47.29% 212.5
88 Valparaiso Crusaders $-40 267 12 44.94% 34.5
89 Central Florida Knights $-40 244 11 38.93% -70
90 Northern Kentucky Norse $-80 164 7 42.68% 139
91 Delaware Blue Hens $-80 254 11 37.01% -55.5
92 Jackson State Tigers $-100 86 3 26.74% -17
93 Montana Grizzlies $-100 263 11 44.11% 185.5
94 Long Island Brooklyn Blackbirds $-110 107 4 40.19% 104
95 Tennessee Volunteers $-110 282 12 42.2% 305
96 Bowling Green State Falcons $-120 261 11 38.7% -14
97 South Carolina-Upstate Spartans $-150 94 3 28.72% -66
98 Harvard Crimson $-170 227 9 42.73% 112
99 Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns $-170 247 10 43.72% 14.5
100 Stony Brook Seawolves $-200 108 3 40.74% -21.5
101 New Hampshire Wildcats $-260 75 1 24% -67.5
102 Hampton University Pirates $-260 96 2 39.58% 175.5
103 Kansas State Wildcats $-280 270 10 42.59% 131
104 Duke Blue Devils $-280 292 11 50.68% 87
105 American Eagles $-290 102 2 39.22% 83.5
106 Princeton Tigers $-310 212 7 43.87% 43
107 Abilene Christian Wildcats $-310 62 0 40.32% 41
108 Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos $-320 150 4 34.67% -5.5
109 Evansville Aces $-320 259 9 34.75% 50
110 Portland State Vikings $-360 246 8 36.59% -1
111 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders $-400 276 9 42.75% 288
112 New Mexico Lobos $-400 274 9 45.99% -17
113 Florida State Seminoles $-400 276 9 46.38% 143.5
114 Coppin State Eagles $-410 105 1 21.9% -43
115 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers $-420 277 9 41.52% -7.5
116 South Carolina State Bulldogs $-430 88 0 20.45% 8
117 New Orleans Privateers $-440 69 -1 31.88% -18.5
118 Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils $-450 92 0 14.13% -111
119 Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers $-450 92 0 35.87% -3.5
120 Samford Bulldogs $-460 244 7 31.15% 107
121 Oklahoma Sooners $-470 269 8 42.01% 178
122 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers $-470 265 8 38.49% 123.5
123 Radford Highlanders $-480 98 0 39.8% 78
124 Maine Black Bears $-500 80 -1 13.75% -41
125 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles $-510 253 7 35.18% 92.5
126 Southern Methodist Mustangs $-520 260 7 43.08% 13.5
127 Eastern Washington Eagles $-530 258 7 40.31% 142.5
128 Baylor Bears $-540 261 7 45.59% 216.5
129 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles $-550 112 0 38.39% 60.5
130 Illinois-Chicago Flames $-580 267 7 31.84% -96.5
131 Towson Tigers $-580 246 6 36.59% 38
132 Albany Great Danes $-580 97 -1 31.96% 67
133 Saint Francis-New York Terriers $-590 55 -3 32.73% -93.5
134 Nicholls State Colonels $-590 77 -2 31.17% -99.5
135 Grambling State Tigers $-590 58 -3 32.76% 36
136 Memphis Tigers $-600 274 7 44.53% 135
137 North Carolina-Asheville Bulldogs $-610 101 -1 28.71% -69
138 Butler Bulldogs $-620 278 7 46.04% 55.5
139 Canisius Golden Griffins $-640 263 6 38.4% -108
140 Longwood Lancers $-640 87 -2 31.03% 85.5
141 Air Force Falcons $-650 240 5 30.83% -98
142 Virginia Tech Hokies $-650 260 6 36.92% 101
143 Akron Zips $-660 262 6 42.37% 86.5
144 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors $-680 247 5 42.11% 49
145 McNeese State Cowboys $-690 76 -3 30.26% -49
146 South Alabama Jaguars $-710 253 5 36.36% -91
147 Incarnate Word Cardinals $-710 58 -4 17.24% -50.5
148 Eastern Michigan Eagles $-720 251 5 39.44% 115.5
149 Mississippi State Bulldogs $-730 257 5 36.96% -66.5
150 Charleston Southern Buccaneers $-750 89 -3 32.58% 48.5
151 Mercer Bears $-750 195 2 36.92% -94.5
152 Mount Saint Marys Mountaineers $-770 70 -4 37.14% 9
153 Wyoming Cowboys $-770 265 5 35.85% -55.5
154 Auburn Tigers $-780 265 5 40% 4.5
155 Lafayette College Leopards $-790 98 -3 33.67% -151.5
156 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers $-790 139 -1 40.29% -25
157 Pennsylvania Quakers $-800 227 3 37% -27
158 Alabama A&M $-840 86 -4 19.77% -113
159 Saint Marys College-California Gaels $-850 237 3 47.68% 17
160 Jacksonville State Gamecocks $-860 239 3 31.8% 28
161 Belmont Bruins $-880 243 3 46.09% 95
162 Central Arkansas Bears $-890 74 -5 24.32% -103
163 New Jersey Tech Highlanders $-900 77 -5 28.57% 4.5
164 Saint Louis Billikens $-910 269 4 40.52% -86.5
165 Binghamton Bearcats $-910 81 -5 22.22% -17.5
166 Bethune Cookman Wildcats $-920 81 -5 33.33% -23
167 Clemson Tigers $-940 256 3 39.84% 34
168 Houston Baptist Huskies $-950 86 -5 18.6% -22
169 Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks $-960 216 1 35.65% 59.5
170 Presbyterian Blue Hose $-960 88 -5 25% -54.5
171 Pepperdine Waves $-970 263 3 31.18% -30
172 Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks $-990 95 -5 14.74% -185.5
173 Oregon State Beavers $-990 267 3 36.7% -52.5
174 Bucknell Bison $-1020 121 -4 39.67% 107.5
175 Texas-El Paso Miners $-1030 252 2 37.7% -71
176 North Texas Mean Green Eagles $-1040 236 1 33.05% -187.5
177 Lamar Cardinals $-1050 85 -6 35.29% 21.5
178 Navy Midshipmen $-1050 107 -5 30.84% -20.5
179 Pacific Tigers $-1060 260 2 32.69% -109
180 California-Davis Aggies $-1060 259 2 35.91% 22
181 Xavier Musketeers $-1090 287 3 45.99% 57.5
182 Utah State Aggies $-1090 264 2 43.94% 151
183 Lehigh Mountain Hawks $-1100 116 -5 37.93% 55
184 Missouri Tigers $-1100 273 2 36.26% 31.5
185 Northern Colorado Bears $-1120 250 1 36.4% -134.5
186 Temple Owls $-1130 275 2 41.82% -66
187 Savannah State Tigers $-1140 63 -8 25.4% -219.5
188 Saint Peters Peacocks $-1150 213 -1 34.27% -45
189 Sacred Heart Pioneers $-1160 86 -7 33.72% -144
190 Toledo Rockets $-1180 260 1 42.69% 168
191 Wisconsin Badgers $-1190 286 2 46.85% 53.5
192 Grand Canyon Antelope $-1190 93 -7 34.41% 8
193 Loyola-Marymount Lions $-1210 140 -5 37.14% -100.5
194 Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions $-1230 99 -7 21.21% -1.5
195 Virginia Commonwealth Rams $-1250 278 1 46.04% 111.5
196 West Virginia Mountaineers $-1260 280 1 43.21% 38
197 Brown Bears $-1260 197 -3 30.46% 69
198 San Diego Toreros $-1260 258 0 31.78% 104.5
199 Texas A&M CC $-1260 85 -8 24.71% 21
200 Drake Bulldogs $-1270 264 0 36.36% 79.5
201 Penn State Nittany Lions $-1300 268 0 35.45% 38.5
202 Northern Iowa Panthers $-1310 271 0 45.02% -32.5
203 Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks $-1310 75 -9 33.33% -29.5
204 Wright State Raiders $-1320 269 0 42.75% 108
205 Georgia State Panthers $-1320 266 0 45.11% 130
206 Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles $-1330 232 -2 32.76% -228.5
207 Massachusetts Minutemen $-1340 273 0 37.36% -130.5
208 Morgan State Bears $-1340 100 -8 29% -57
209 Quinnipiac Bobcats $-1350 193 -4 36.79% -61
210 Texas A&M $-1360 255 -1 38.82% -103.5
211 Western Michigan Broncos $-1380 262 -1 35.11% -9
212 Stephen F. Austin State Lumberjacks $-1380 89 -9 39.33% -85
213 Saint Johns Red Storm $-1380 241 -2 34.02% -53.5
214 Colorado Buffaloes $-1390 283 0 43.82% 72
215 Tennessee-Chattanooga Moccasins $-1410 246 -2 34.96% -180.5
216 North Carolina-Charlotte 49ers $-1420 251 -2 33.07% -259.5
217 Idaho Vandals $-1450 231 -3 33.77% -7
218 Western Carolina Catamounts $-1460 256 -2 30.47% -207
219 Alabama State Hornets $-1480 89 -10 19.1% -126.5
220 California-Riverside Highlanders $-1480 243 -3 26.75% -88.5
221 Idaho State Bengals $-1480 240 -3 25% -65.5
222 Oakland Golden Grizzlies $-1480 262 -2 35.88% -183
223 Chicago State Cougars $-1490 91 -10 6.59% -218
224 Loyola-Maryland Greyhounds $-1500 268 -2 28.73% -83.5
225 Jacksonville Dolphins $-1500 92 -10 27.17% 51.5
226 Boston University Terriers $-1510 115 -9 38.26% -63
227 Kentucky Wildcats $-1530 292 -1 47.6% 91.5
228 Miami-Florida Hurricanes $-1530 270 -2 42.96% 123
229 Siena College Saints $-1530 252 -3 35.71% -32.5
230 Stanford Cardinal $-1540 274 -2 41.97% -49
231 Vanderbilt Commodores $-1560 274 -2 36.13% 114.5
232 Holy Cross Crusaders $-1560 104 -10 27.88% -35.5
233 Rutgers Scarlet Knights $-1570 255 -3 29.41% -242.5
234 East Carolina Pirates $-1580 238 -4 29.83% -41
235 Eastern Kentucky Colonels $-1580 238 -4 34.03% -84.5
236 Delaware State Hornets $-1590 88 -11 17.05% -115.5
237 Louisiana State Tigers $-1600 266 -3 40.23% -100.5
238 Monmouth-New Jersey Hawks $-1600 220 -5 38.64% -59
239 Austin Peay State Governors $-1620 246 -4 32.93% -116
240 Boise State Broncos $-1630 265 -3 40.38% 92.5
241 Citadel Bulldogs $-1630 226 -5 19.47% -217
242 North Dakota Fighting Hawks $-1650 230 -5 33.91% -121
243 Kent State Golden Flashes $-1690 261 -4 40.61% -28
244 Liberty University Flames $-1690 107 -11 39.25% -30
245 Bryant University Bulldogs $-1700 88 -12 26.14% -128.5
246 Miami-Ohio Redhawks $-1700 263 -4 30.42% -53.5
247 Southern Illinois Salukis $-1710 266 -4 37.22% -153.5
248 Appalachian State Mountaineers $-1720 245 -5 29.39% -109.5
249 Marshall Thundering Herd $-1730 268 -4 37.31% -224.5
250 Rhode Island Rams $-1730 269 -4 38.66% 60
251 Nebraska Cornhuskers $-1740 268 -4 35.07% 23
252 Alabama Crimson Tide $-1750 273 -4 37% 21.5
253 Marquette Golden Eagles $-1770 274 -4 41.97% -16
254 Denver Pioneers $-1780 253 -5 37.15% -103
255 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners $-1790 214 -7 33.18% 70.5
256 Alcorn State Braves $-1800 87 -13 20.69% -164.5
257 High Point Panthers $-1820 91 -13 29.67% -136
258 Texas Southern Tigers $-1840 119 -12 30.25% -33
259 Central Michigan Chippewas $-1840 254 -6 34.65% -50
260 Arkansas Razorbacks $-1860 269 -5 43.49% -104
261 Rider Broncs $-1870 254 -6 38.58% -27.5
262 Syracuse Orange $-1880 274 -5 45.26% -139.5
263 Brigham Young Cougars $-1880 278 -5 46.04% 118
264 Oklahoma State Cowboys $-1940 268 -6 39.18% 93.5
265 North Carolina-Greensboro Spartans $-1950 249 -7 37.75% 130
266 Texas Longhorns $-1970 273 -6 36.26% -9.5
267 Cleveland State Vikings $-2030 267 -7 33.71% -109
268 Ohio State Buckeyes $-2030 283 -6 45.94% 20.5
269 Niagara Purple Eagles $-2040 265 -7 30.94% -131
270 Marist Red Foxes $-2050 245 -8 27.35% -19
271 South Carolina Gamecocks $-2060 272 -7 38.6% -93.5
272 Central Connecticut State Blue Devils $-2070 79 -16 15.19% -148.5
273 California State-Sacramento Hornets $-2100 239 -9 31.38% -83.5
274 Texas State Bobcats $-2110 217 -10 35.94% -44.5
275 Missouri State Bears $-2120 237 -9 32.07% -167
276 Southern California Trojans $-2150 288 -7 37.85% -174.5
277 Northwestern Wildcats $-2160 270 -8 35.56% -62
278 California State-Long Beach 49ers $-2170 274 -8 34.67% -16
279 California State-Northridge Matadors $-2190 254 -9 25.98% -247.5
280 Duquesne Dukes $-2210 240 -10 32.08% -133.5
281 Columbia Lions $-2240 199 -12 27.64% -79.5
282 Notre Dame Fighting Irish $-2250 267 -9 40.07% -117.5
283 Wagner Seahawks $-2250 94 -17 35.11% -144.5
284 UCLA Bruins $-2290 292 -8 44.86% 9
285 Connecticut Huskies $-2290 273 -9 38.83% -94.5
286 Troy Trojans $-2360 245 -11 29.8% -47.5
287 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers $-2360 270 -10 33.33% -188
288 Cornell Big Red $-2360 207 -13 26.57% -150
289 Morehead State Eagles $-2370 253 -11 30.83% -171.5
290 Cincinnati Bearcats $-2390 272 -10 45.22% 84.5
291 Ohio Bobcats $-2400 252 -11 40.87% -110
292 Washington Huskies $-2400 275 -10 38.91% -70
293 UNLV Rebels $-2450 289 -10 39.1% -154.5
294 Richmond Spiders $-2470 269 -11 40.15% 18
295 Northeastern Huskies $-2470 267 -11 41.95% 15
296 Dartmouth College Big Green $-2480 192 -15 24.48% -12
297 Howard Bison $-2500 103 -19 21.36% -141
298 Florida Gators $-2510 281 -11 41.64% 193
299 Boston College Eagles $-2520 257 -12 26.85% -112.5
300 Portland Pilots $-2530 262 -12 26.34% -235
301 Colorado State Rams $-2530 262 -12 37.4% 142.5
302 Southeast Missouri State Redhawks $-2540 240 -13 27.08% 44
303 Youngstown State Penguins $-2580 250 -13 28.4% -153
304 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Cougars $-2620 231 -14 23.38% -83
305 Minnesota Golden Gophers $-2620 278 -12 38.49% -295.5
306 Fairfield Stags $-2650 260 -13 33.85% -199.5
307 Georgetown Hoyas $-2670 265 -13 38.11% 14
308 Indiana State Sycamores $-2670 267 -13 37.83% -159.5
309 North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks $-2690 253 -14 32.02% -162
310 Arkansas State Red Wolves $-2700 249 -14 34.54% -193
311 Virginia Military Keydets $-2750 177 -18 21.47% -339
312 Southern Utah Thunderbirds $-2820 255 -15 24.71% -195
313 Illinois State Redbirds $-2820 274 -14 40.15% 54
314 Arizona State Sun Devils $-2900 278 -15 39.93% -28
315 Old Dominion Monarchs $-2910 271 -15 39.85% -11.5
316 Weber State Wildcats $-2920 252 -16 40.48% -69
317 Elon Phoenix $-2920 252 -16 34.52% -134
318 Drexel Dragons $-2970 265 -16 32.83% -120.5
319 Wake Forest Demon Deacons $-2980 265 -16 30.19% -100.5
320 Rice University Owls $-3050 238 -18 25.21% -38
321 Fordham Rams $-3090 248 -18 25.4% -177.5
322 South Florida Bulls $-3100 267 -17 27.72% -131
323 DePaul Blue Demons $-3100 271 -17 28.78% -167.5
324 Iona Gaels $-3130 274 -17 41.97% 116
325 North Dakota State Bison $-3140 254 -18 42.52% -7.5
326 Alabama-Birmingham Blazers $-3170 261 -18 38.7% -117.5
327 Western Illinois Leathernecks $-3180 220 -20 27.73% -167
328 Washington State Cougars $-3190 265 -18 31.7% -191
329 Montana State Bobcats $-3210 251 -19 30.68% -213.5
330 Bradley Braves $-3220 274 -18 31.02% -266.5
331 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks $-3260 258 -19 26.36% -372
332 Texas Tech Red Raiders $-3270 258 -19 33.33% -57
333 Kennesaw State Owls $-3280 91 -27 8.79% -186
334 Santa Clara Broncos $-3390 263 -20 31.94% -207.5
335 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles $-3550 209 -24 29.67% -180
336 La Salle Explorers $-3570 260 -22 35.38% -194
337 James Madison Dukes $-3580 260 -22 33.85% -144.5
338 Eastern Illinois Panthers $-3630 246 -23 33.33% -214
339 Texas Christian Horned Frogs $-3690 261 -23 31.8% -44.5
340 Detroit-Mercy Titans $-3700 266 -23 27.07% -221.5
341 George Mason Patriots $-3850 272 -24 35.29% -55.5
342 Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks $-3870 229 -26 29.26% -239
343 Tulane Green Wave $-3900 242 -26 27.69% -223
344 California Golden Bears $-4020 283 -25 36.4% -326
345 Illinois Fighting Illini $-4030 274 -26 35.04% -193
346 Ball State Cardinals $-4170 249 -28 32.13% -143.5
347 California State-Fullerton Titans $-4170 252 -28 32.14% -66.5
348 Florida Atlantic Owls $-4350 244 -30 27.87% -151
349 San Jose State Spartans $-4370 252 -30 16.67% -384
350 College of Charleston Cougars $-4790 266 -33 37.97% -194.5
351 George Washington Colonials $-5090 267 -36 34.46% -79.5
352 Indiana-Purdue Jaguars $-5140 254 -37 25.59% -339
353 Pittsburgh Panthers $-5190 272 -37 31.25% -289.5
354 Cal Poly-Slo Mustangs $-6250 249 -48 26.1% -338
submitted by Cav_vaC to CollegeBasketball [link] [comments]

4 Roud Mock (With some trades)

A big project here that has been underway for a bit, with some tweaking as needed.
I only made trades in the first round. Any trades you see are reflective of first round deals. There's usually a handful of them, so I tried to really push for trades, rather than a take a less realistic approach to it and be super conservative about. Additionally, I added a few 3rd round compensatory picks, based on the projections from over the cap.


1.1 - Cincinnati Bengals - QB Joe Burrow (LSU). Don't need too much explanation here. Burrow is the best QB in this draft, perhaps even the best player, given how Chase Young was a bit quiet against Michigan & Clemson. Bringing him back to Ohio is too good.
1.2 - Washington Redskins - EDGE Chase Young (Ohio State). Another very easy pick, as Young has the potential to step into the NFL as a game changer from the first snap. Explosive, smart, and incredible hands, he has franchise changing potential.
1.3 - TRADE: Los Angeles Chargers - QB Tua Tagavailoa (Alabama). Miami could perhaps outbid the Chargers, but I don't see Miami wanting to give up too much of their stockpile for one player, especially given how many needs the Dolphins have. Thus, their #6 pick, a 3rd, and a 2021 1st round pick to Detroit for LAC to get a QB who could get them back to the playoffs immediately.
1.4 - New York Giants - OT Andrew Thomas (Georgia). This feels like such a good fit. Thomas is incredibly powerful, and fits the MO of the Giants well, building a powerful run game behind Saquon Barkley.
1.5 - Miami Dolphins - QB Justin Herbert (Oregon). According to reports, the Dolphins have done the most work on Herbert, and with the Chargers jumping up for Tua, the Dolphins choose to tap Herbert as their new starting QB, and hopefully fill out the rest of their needs with their massive stockpile of picks.
1.6 TRADE: Detroit Lions - DT Derrick Brown (Auburn). The Lions move back and still have their pick of Brown or Okudah, the two most popular names here. Ultimately, I went with Brown, as Brown can solve both their struggles stopping the run, and provide an interior pass rush.
1.7 Carolina Panthers - CB Jeff Okudah (Ohio State). The Panthers are probably hoping to get Brown, as his explosiveness is unreal, but Okudah could be an excellent piece to Matt Rhule's new defense, with his lockdown coverage ability.
1.8 TRADE: New York Jets - OT Tristan Wirfs (Iowa). As the Cardinals debate OL vs. WR, the Jets ensure they land a top OT by offering them their 3rd round pick and a future 6th round pick. The Cardinals accept, and the Jets get Sam Darnold some much needed protection.
1.9 Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Jerry Jeudy (Alabama). A great spot for the Jaguars, as Jeudy is arguably the best player left on the board, and also fills a big need for an offensive playmaker. Whether Nick Foles or Gardner Minshew starts for the Jags next season, Jeudy will make their lives easier.
1.10 Cleveland Browns - OT Jedrick Wills (Alabama). With Cleveland a sure bet to take a tackle, the Jets hopped them to get their choice. The Browns still take Wills, who has the athleticism to play either side, but either way is a big upgrade for Cleveland, as they attempt to rebuild their offensive line.
1.11 TRADE: Arizona Cardinals - WR CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma). With their decision now made for them, the Cardinals take perhaps the biggest playmaker on the board. Lamb is an exceptional fit for Kingsbury's passing attack, and he should give them a replacement for Larry Fitzgerald, whenever he chooses to retire.
1.12 Las Vegas Raiders - LB/S Isaiah Simmons (Clemson). With a big need to improve the speed of their LB spot, the Raiders take Simmons, which also fits nicely with Mayhew's affinity for Clemson players. Simmons' versatility is perhaps the best among any player in this draft.
1.13 TRADE: Philadelphia Eagles - CB Kristian Fulton (LSU). With teams like Dallas, Jacksonville, and Miami ahead of them, the Eagles act promptly to get the cornerback of their choosing. Sending their 2nd round pick and a 2021 day three pick to Indy, the Eagles land an elite cover corner in Fulton.
1.14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DT Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina). With the top 3 quarterbacks gone, the Bucs opt to do the smart thing, and take the disruptive DT from South Carolina. If they retain Barrett, this could be quite the deadly pass rush next season.
1.15 Denver Broncos - WR Henry Ruggs III (Alabama). The Broncos could use some speed to compliment Courtland Sutton at WR. Pairing the two of them should give second-year QB Drew Lock a promising group of pass catchers, as he attempts to bring the Broncos back to the playoffs.
1.16 Atlanta Falcons - EDGE A.J. Epenesa (Iowa). Almost too good to be true for the Falcons, as they get the second best pass rusher at 16 without having to move up. Thankfully the board falls well to them, and Epenesa gives them a powerful pass rushing presence to boost their DL.
1.17 Dallas Cowboys - S Grant Delpit (LSU). This pick seems almost too trendy, but that's because it's just a fantastic fit. Delpit's stock dropped a bit due to some poor tackling, but his ability to make plays all around the field is still unmatched at the safety position. A great fit in Dallas.
1.18 Miami Dolphins (via PIT) - OT Mekhi Becton (Louisville). The next tackle off the board comes to Miami, as the Dolphins need to rebuild this unit in a massive way. And what better way than to add a massive pass protector like Becton, who can keep Herbert clean for years to come.
1.19 Las Vegas Raiders (via CHI) - WR Tee Higgins. Wouldn't it be nice to grab a QB here Bears fans? Instead, the Raiders add a weapon on the outside in Higgins, whose elite body control allows him to come down with some insane catches. He gives the Raiders the outside weapon they're searching for.
1.20 Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR) - CB Trevon Diggs (Alabama). The Jaguars could use a corner to play across from Bouye, and Diggs has elite size, and the ability to be a stud for them.
1.21 TRADE: Indianapolis Colts - EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State). I'd love to see the Colts target Arik Armstead in free agency to improve their pass rush, but if they don't, grabbing a high potential pass rusher like YGM would be an excellent move, especially after trading back for more picks.
1.22 Buffalo Bills - WR Laviska Shenault (Colorado). Shenault can make plays in so many different ways. He'd give OC Brian Daboll and QB Josh Allen a major boost with his play making.
1.23 New England Patriots - EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson (LSU). The Patriots would be best not using this on a tight end, as they are slow developers in their first seasons. Instead, go sign Hunter Henry, and then draft a pass rusher like Chaisson to help your defense continue to disrupt opposing offenses.
1.24 New Orleans Saints - LB Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma). The Saints could use some help in the middle of their defense, and Murray can make plays from sideline to sideline, a very well-rounded player.
1.25 Minnesota Vikings - CB C.J. Henderson (Florida). Death, taxes, Vikings drafting 1st round corners. Though this time, the need for one is very clear, given the potential exodus of corners they could have in free agency. Henderson has the ability to be a lockdown corner in Mike Zimmer's defense.
1.26 Miami Dolphins (via HOU) - RB D'Andre Swift (Georgia). Fans usually hate running backs in the first round, but the value of Swift here, compared to reaching on a pass rusher or guard here, is fantastic. He's a dynamic back, with play making ability both as a runner and as a pass catcher.
1.27 TRADE: Tennessee Titans - EDGE Curtis Weaver (Boise State) - The Titans hop ahead of the Ravens, landing the pass rushing OLB of their choice in Weaver. A strong pass rusher with plenty of moves, he and Harold Landry would form a scary good young duo in Tennessee.
1.28 Baltimore Ravens - WR Justin Jefferson (LSU) - Rather than reach for an edge rusher, the Ravens add Jefferson, whose electrifying season was a big part of why LSU are the national champions. He can help Lamar Jackson in a lot of ways, and is a pretty willing blocker in the run game.
1.29 TRADE: Seattle Seahawks - OT Lucas Niang (TCU) - Picking up a 2021 3rd round pick to swap with the Titans, the Seahawks use this pick to grab Niang, and give Russell Wilson some more protection, an upgrade over Ifedi in Seattle.
1.30 Green Bay Packers - WR Jalen Reagor (TCU) - Back to back Horned Frogs at the end of the first round, as the Packers add a big time weapon to their offense. Reagor's ability to take the top off of defenses would be a huge boost for Rodgers.
1.31 Kansas City Chiefs - RB Travis Etienne (Clemson) - Wanted to give the Chiefs some defensive help, but nothing stood out as a great fit. Instead, the Chiefs take the best player left on the board in Etienne, and continue to add elite weapons to an already dangerous offense.
1.32 TRADE: Carolina Panthers - QB Jordan Love (Utah State). The 49ers are low on picks in this draft, so a trade back to replenish their ammo would be great. And the Panthers land themselves Love, who can develop under Rhule and new Panthers OC Joe Brady, sending a 4th and a 7th round pick to the 49ers in return.


2.1 Cincinnati Bengals - OT Josh Jones (Houston). Now that they have their franchise QB, they need to protect their franchise QB. With Jonah Williams added in last year, the Bengals add a long, athletic pass protector in Jones.
2.2 Indianapolis Colts (via WAS) - WR K.J. Hamler (Penn State). The Colts used their first pick to add defensive help, and now this pick turns into the speedy Hamler to help the offense.
2.3 Detroit Lions - CB A.J. Terrell (Clemson). After taking a DT in the first round, the Lions land a great fit in Terrell to give them some needed cornerback help.
2.4 New York Giants - EDGE Zack Baun (Wisconsin). Continuing to build the team from the inside out, the Giants add an excellent pass rusher in Baun, who has risen immensely since last season.
2.5 Los Angeles Chargers - OT Austin Jackson (USC). Like the Bengals, the Chargers need to find protection for their new signal caller, and this comes in the local product out of USC.
2.6 TRADE: San Francisco 49ers - CB Jeff Gladney (TCU). After moving out of the first round, the 49ers add extra picks and now select a cornerback to boost their outstanding defense.
2.7 Miami Dolphins - G Soloman Kindley (Georgia). Miami needs to take multiple offensive linemen in the first two days of the draft, and they so here with a strong interior guard in Kindley.
2.8 Arizona Cardinals - DT Raekwon Davis (Alabama). After adding CeeDee Lamb in the first, the Cardinals add a long, powerful DT to give a boost to their defense, rather than reach on OL here.
2.9 Cleveland Browns - S Xavier McKinney (Alabama). The Browns should have plenty of opportunities to fill their biggest needs with elite prospects, and they do exactly that by adding McKinney here.
2.10 Jacksonville Jaguars - RB Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin). The theme here is continuing to add weapons to this offense, and Taylor can be a big boost either in tangent with Fournette, or as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
2.11 Chicago Bears (via LVR) - G/C Tyler Biadasz (Wisconsin). Back to back Badgers, as the Bears add some much needed help on the OL in Biadasz, who can easily slide to guard alongside Daniels.
2.12 Indianapolis Colts - QB Jacob Eason (Washington). The Colts may have waited a bit, but they do add a QB with immense potential in the strong armed-Eason. A season behind Brissett could do him wonders.
2.13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - OT Prince Tega Wanogho (Auburn). The Bucs find themselves a pass protector, and PTW may have the highest ceiling out of all these guys due to his immense athleticism.
2.14 Denver Broncos - OT Isaiah Wilson (Georgia). The Broncos too need to find some help at OT, and they get that with Wilson, another incredibly athletic SEC pass protector.
2.15 Atlanta Falcons - DT Neville Gallimore (Oklahoma). Didn't like a fit for any corners here, so the Falcons take Gallimore and provide a boost to their defensive line.
2.16 New York Jets - EDGE Terrell Lewis (Alabama). In need of pass rushers as well, the Jets take a chance on Lewis, who has immense potential, but has dealt with some injuries.
2.17 Pittsburgh Steelers - EDGE Julian Okwara (Notre Dame). The Steelers enter the draft, and they pick Notre Dame's top edge rusher, a crafty and surprisingly strong pass rusher.
2.18 Chicago Bears - TE Cole Kmet (Notre Dame). The first tight end off the board is Kmet, who will provide Trubisky another weapon in hopes that he can get things figured out.
2.19 Dallas Cowboys - DT Justin Madibuike (Texas A&M). The Cowboys first two picks gives them two impact defenders to help straighten out their defense.
2.20 Los Angeles Rams - OT Trey Adams (Washington). If the Rams want another run at the Super Bowl, heck, even the playoffs, they need to upgrade their OL, and they do that with the massive product out of Washington.
2.21 TRADE: Indianapolis Colts - TE Hunter Bryant (Washington) Picking this up from the Eagles, the Colts reunite Bryant and Eason, giving them a natural replacement for Ebron as a pass catching TE.
2.22 Buffalo Bills - EDGE Jabari Zuniga (Florida). The Bills add a pass rusher here, as Zuniga's excellent play earns him a spot in the second round.
2.23 Atlanta Falcons (via NE) - CB Jaylon Johnson (Utah) - The Falcons add a corner with the pick they received in the Sanu trade. Johnson was a major asset for the tough Utah defense.
2.24 Miami Dolphins (via NO) - EDGE Jonathan Greenard (Florida). Just two picks behind a fellow Gator's pass rusher, Greenard fits Flores scheme quite well, and provides some pass rush help.
2.25 Houston Texans - RB Cam Akers (Florida State). Akers may be the most underrated back in this draft, as he managed to put up excellent footage in Tallahassee, despite playing behind that garbage OL.
2.26 Minnesota Vikings - T/G Calvin Throckmorten (Oregon). The Vikings run came to end as the 49ers obliterated their OL. They address that with the RT out of Oregon.
2.27 Seattle Seahawks - EDGE Darrell Taylor (Tennessee). The Seahawks will likely re-sign Jadeveon Clowney as a powerful SDE, but adding an edge rusher who gets after the QB a bit more would be great.
2.28 Baltimore Ravens - ILB Troy Dye (Oregon). Filling the void left by C.J. Mosley, Dye steps into to a Ravens defense, and could be a bit component for them going forward.
2.29 Tennessee Titans - RB J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State). This would change if the Titans re-sign Derrick Henry, however, with a very good offensive line, the Titans could likely continue rushing success without Henry.
2.30 Green Bay Packers - DT Ross Blacklock (TCU). Perhaps one of my favorite "sleepers" of the draft, Blacklock has a fantastic blend of size and quickness to him.
2.31 Kansas City Chiefs - CB Cameron Dantzler (Mississippi St.). A big, physical corner, Dantzler should step in and contribute for the Chiefs fairly quickly, given their needs at corner.
2.32 Seattle Seahawks - WR Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona St.). A big play waiting to happen every time the ball heads his direction, Aiyuk would give Russell Wilson an electric weapon.

Third Round

3.1 Cincinnati Bengals - C Nick Harris (Washington) 3.2 Washington Redskins - WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (Michigan) 3.3 Detroit Lions - EDGE Bradlee Anae (Utah) 3.4 TRADE: Arizona Cardinals - G John Simpson (Clemson) - from trade w/ NYJ (via NYG). 3.5 Carolina Panthers - DT Rashard Lawrence (LSU)
3.6 Miami Dolphins - G Shane Lemiuex (Oregon) 3.7 TRADE: Detroit Lions - WR Michael Pittman Jr. (USC) - from trade w/ LAC. 3.8 Arizona Cardinals - OT Yasir Durant (Missouri) 3.9 Jacksonville Jaguars - S Ashtyn Davis (California) 3.10 Cleveland Browns - G Ben Bredeson (Michigan)
3.11 Indianapolis Colts - DL Marlon Davidson (Auburn) 3.12 Tampa Bay Bucs - CB Deommodore Lenoir (Oregon) 3.13 Denver Broncos - CB Lamar Jackson (Nebraska) 3.14 Atlanta Falcons - WR Bryan Edwards (South Carolina) 3.15 New York Jets - S Antoine Winfield Jr. (Minnesota)
3.16 Las Vegas Raiders - CB/S Shyheim Carter (Alabama) 3.17 Las Vegas Raiders - LB Jacob Phillips (LSU) 3.18 Dallas Cowboys - WR Tyler Johnson (Minnesota) 3.19 Denver Broncos (via PIT) - OT Robert Hunt (UL-Lafayette) 3.20 Los Angeles Rams - DT Leki Fotu (Utah)
3.21 Philadelphia Eagles - S Kyle Dugger (Lenoir-Rhyne) 3.22 Buffalo Bills - EDGE Anfernee Jennings (Alabama) 3.23 New England Patriots - QB Jake Fromm (Georgia) 3.24 New Orleans Saints - QB Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma) 3.25 Minnesota Vikings - DL Nick Coe (Auburn)
3.26 Cleveland Browns (via HOU) - LB Malik Harrison (Ohio State) 3.27 Las Vegas Raiders (via SEA) - WR Devin Duvernay (Texas) 3.28 Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Khalid Kareem (Notre Dame) 3.29 Tennessee Titans - DT Jordan Elliott (Missouri) 3.30 Green Bay Packers - LB Jordan Mack (Virginia)
3.31 Kansas City Chiefs - LB Jordyn Brooks (Texas Tech) 3.32 Denver Broncos (via SF) - OT Scott Franz (Kansas State)
Compensatory Picks (as predicted by OverTheCap) 3.33 New England Patriots - OT Ezra Cleveland (Boise State) 3.34 New York Giants - WR Gabriel Davis (UCF) 3.35 New England Patriots - TE Adam Trautman (Dayton) 3.36 Seattle Seahawks - S Hamsah Nasirildeen (Florida State) 3.37 Houston Texans - EDGE Josh Uche (Michigan) 3.38 Pittsburgh Steelers - TE Colby Parkinson (Stanford) 3.39 Philadelphia Eagles - CB Thomas Graham (Oregon)

Fourth Round

4.1 Cincinnati Bengals - WR Antonio Gandy-Golden (Liberty) 4.2 Washington Redskins - CB Amik Robertson (Louisiana Tech) 4.3 Detroit Lions - RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (LSU) 4.4 New York Giants - CB Damon Arnette (Ohio State) 4.5 Houston Texans (via MIA) - C/G Netane Muti (Fresno State)
4.6 Los Angeles Chargers - C Matt Hennessy (Temple) 4.7 TRADE: San Francisco 49ers - C Jake Hanson (Oregon) 4.8 Arizona Cardinals - RB Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma St.) 4.9 Cleveland Browns - OT Jack Driscoll (Auburn) 4.10 Jacksonville Jaguars - LB Akeem Davis-Gaither (Appalachian St.)
4.11 Tampa Bay Bucs - RB Eno Benjamin (Arizona St.) 4.12 Denver Broncos - DT Raequan Williams (Michigan St.) 4.13 Atlanta Falcons - CB Darnay Holmes (UCLA) 4.14 New York Jets - EDGE Kenny Willekes (Michigan St.) 4.15 Las Vegas Raiders - QB Anthony Gordon (Washington St.)
4.16 Indianapolis Colts - RB Kylin Hill (Mississippi St.) 4.17 Dallas Cowboys - WR Isaiah Hodgins (Oregon St.) 4.18 Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Ben Bartch (St. John's) 4.19 New England Patriots (via CHI) - LB Logan Wilson (Wyoming) 4.20 Los Angeles Rams - WR Chase Claypool (Notre Dame)
4.21 Philadelphia Eagles - WR Denzel Mims (Baylor) 4.22 Buffalo Bills - WR Jauan Jennings (Tennessee) 4.23 Baltimore Ravens - RB A.J. Dillon (Boston College 4.24 New Orleans Saints - CB Bryce Hall (Virginia) 4.25 Houston Texans - TE Brycen Hopkins (Purdue)
4.26 Minnesota Vikings - WR Lynn Bowden (Kentucky) 4.27 Seattle Seahawks - G Logan Stenberg (Kentucky) 4.28 Baltimore Ravens - Cesar Ruiz (Michigan) 4.29 Pittsburgh Steelers (via TEN) - OT Justin Herron (Wake Forrest) 4.30 Green Bay Packers - OT Matt Peart (UCONN)
4.31 Kansas City Chiefs - CB Kindle Vildor (Georgia Southern) 4.32 Denver Broncos (via SF) - LB Cameron Brown (Penn State)
Anyways. That's my shot at one. Tell me why you hate it...
submitted by boanerges77 to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]

NCAA Football - ALGO Sports Betting Picks - from CheatSheetPros!

NCAA Football ALGO Plays from! << Up arrow if you like the content! >>
Oklahoma State (-10) vs. Texas Tech
This was a top Red Sheet play so I was digging into the game. OSU is #1 in rush yards per game and Texas Tech is 102nd in rush yards allowed. OSU has a SOS of 25 and Texas Tech 65th. The overall ranks are 24th vs. 47th and 20 spots is where our ALGO bump kicks in so it’s just over the cut and we have this game at 43-28 while Red Sheet has it at 44-22.
Iowa (+3.5) vs. Michigan
This was the other top rated Red Sheet play for the week. Looking at the game on our NCAA CheatSheet the overall ranking of the teams are 19th and 20th. We have this game algo projected at Iowa winning 26-14 as a dog. Red Sheet has this game at Iowa winning 41-27. The two standouts in this game are the Iowa offensive live (ranked 10th) vs. the Michigan defensive line (rank 60th) and the Iowa defense which ranks 4th in points allowed, 3rd in yards allowed, 4th in TDs allowed per game, 9th in rush yards allowed per game and 20th in passing yards allowed per game. The YPP Projected line that some sports betting analytics guys use show this line could be as high as Iowa -9. Take the points!
Penn State (-27) vs. Purdue
Red Sheet has this line opening at -20 and moving to -27 and I’m showing -26 to -28.5 so either way a lot of people are looking at a blowout win by PSU. Red Sheet has this at 59-20 and our ALGO has this at 55-15. Quick look at this game gives us Penn State 17th in passing yards per game facing Purdues 112th rated passing defense. Purdue is averaging 69 rushing yards per game vs. Penn State and their 15th rated rush defense. Purdue is 8th in passing yards per game and Penn State is 63rd in passing defense. Purdue has an O-Line ranking of 129th and ranked 115th in stuff rate which means they won’t be able to run and will have to get the ball of quick. If Purdue has success in the air they may hang under the spread but the betting public is hammering PSU.
UConn +11 – Slightest of leans here as we have them winning 24-20 and total going under. Both teams are 1-3, horrible offenses and horrible defenses, take the points. D-Lines for each out are 40 ranks higher than the opposing O-Lines.
Army +2.5 vs. Tulane – Stats here are similar with Army 11th in rushing offense vs. Tulane and their 89th rated rushing defense and Tulane has the 9th rated rushing offense vs. Army and their 27th rated rush defense. Neither team can throw the ball 130th and 113th ranked through the air. Army has the much better statistical defense. Tulane has played FIU, Auburn, Mizz State and Houston. Army has played Rice, Michigan, UTSA and Morgan State. Army took Michigan to the wire and loss 24-21. Taking the points as our YPP line could be as high as Army -6.
Maryland -12.5 – Slight lean here. Rutgers average ranking across the board on offense is 109.5 and defense 92.3. This includes points/game, yards/game, TDs/game, RY/G, PY/G. The only edge here is Maryland is 39th in RY/G at 191.7 and Rutgers is 101st in rushing defense giving up 197.5 per game. We have this game 39-19. Neither team is strong by lean Terps!
Wisconsin -35 – We have this ALGO projected score at 59-12, can this be anything else? Wisconsin is 15th in rushing yards per game and Kent State is 125th in rushing defense. Kent State is 37th in rushing yards per game at 195.7 but Wisconsin is the #1 rushing defense allowing only 48.8 yards per game. Kent State is 112th in allowing sacks through the O-Line and Wisconsin is 17th in D-Line sack rate and 11th in stuff rate. Blowout!
Oklahoma / Kansas – I have to hit on this game since it’s local. Line opened at OU -36 and now down to OU -32. OU ranks an average of 4th across the board for all the offensive categories and KU is an average of 76th on defense. The stat here that is key is KU is 48th in rushing yards per game at 179.8 and OU is allowing 181 RY/G (ranked 92nd). Given those were against much tougher opponents and I don’t know if OU can get up for this game since it’s a cake win but covering 32 might be a little closer. Our ALGO has this 60-35 but I can’t recommend a buck of the Sooners dominance.
BayloK-State under 49 – Line opened at 51 and down to 48.5. K-State is going to miss their star WR and kick returner for this game so I expect them to slow things down. K-State is 17th on defense in points allowed and Baylor is 15th. The standout stat is Baylor 32nd in RY/G at 198.7 and K-State is giving up 211.7 RY/G which is ranked at 109th.
Buffalo +3.5 – Both teams rankings, SOS and custom grades are in the same ballpark so we can look at side by side stats. When looking at rushing and passing offense and defense for both teams there are only 2 stats in the top 60. That is Buffalo rushing yards per game (16th) at 229 yards per game facing Ohio and their 119th rated rushing defense and Buffalo rushing defense allowing only 83.2 yards per game vs. Ohio and their 96th rated rushing offense. O:Line/D:Line matchups are advantage Buffalo on both sides. We have Buffalo winning 28-26 on the ALGO projection. Take the hook at +3.5!
UNC -10.5 vs. GaTech – Slight lean here on UNC -10.5. GaTech can’t throw (125th) and can barely run (58th) and UNC should be above to move the ball on the ground here with the 61st rated rushing offense vs. GT and their 114th rated rushing defense. UNC has a SOS of 5th and GT has a SOS sitting at 92. Our algo takes any team with an overall rank 20 spots apart and applies a factor to the projections and this one falls at 24 spots. The normal algo has UNC winning 26-15 covering the spread and after the factor in the algo it jumps to 34-14 easily covering the spread. Curious to see how this game plays out and which algo was closer.
SMU -12.5 – Our algo has this as 34-24 with SMU winning IF the teams were closely rated but they are not. SMU ranks 45th overall while Tulsa is a lowly 79th so the ALGO flips this score over to a 54-14 blowout. Curious to see how this one plays out. SMU is 22nd and 29th in RY/G and PY/G facing the 86th and 35th respective defense from Tulsa. Tulsa is 111th in RY/G and 50th in PY/G while SMU defense is 33th and 73rd. SMU is scoring 44.4 points per game while Tulsa is at 21.5. Lean on SMU.
Ohio State / Michigan State – Everyone is on Ohio State – 20 and they are awesome to watch this year. They rank 2nd in points per game, 5th in yards per game and 1st in TDs per game. If I were going to be this game I’d have to lean Ohio State from the gut but I’m likely going to pass because on paper Michigan State +20 looks like the better bet and I can’t buck the Buckeyes. Michigan State defensively ranks really well as they are 2nd in rush yards per game allowed and 31st in passing yards allowed. They are also only giving up 15 PPG. Our ALGO has this game at 31-14.
Thank you for reading and good luck!
submitted by CheatSheetProscom to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

[3/23/2019] Saturday's Off Topic Free Talk Thread

/LonghornNation Daily Off Topic Free Talk Thread

Today: 3/23/2019
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Your go-to place to talk about whatever you want. From the dumb shit aggies do on a near daily basis, to the latest whatever happening wherever. What ya got?

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Here's A Look At Todays Longhorn Sporting Event(s):

  1. 3/23 1:00 PM University of Texas Softball vs Iowa State
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  3. 3/24 University of Texas Women's Golf at Evans Derby Experience

Trending on Reddit

  1. Wisconsin Dem governor removes 82 Scott Walker appointees added during lame-duck session
  2. [i ate] 24 Layer Chocolate Cake
  3. James Harden becomes the first player since Kobe Bryant to have multiple 60-point games in a single season.
  4. Lemmy gives advice to a black kid who is being picked on for liking metal
  5. Dad of the year award goes to..
  1. The Eighth Annual /CollegeBasketball Bracket Challenge
  2. Pre-1st Quarter, Way-Too-Early-in-the-Offseason Betting Lines Megathread
  3. William & Mary football player shot and killed in Norfolk Thursday night, police say
  4. Josh Gattis on #Michigan's new offense: "we're a pro spread... we don't huddle. Ever."
  5. Alabama DL Quinnen Williams has dinner with 49ers, opts for the Tuscaloosa IHOP.
  6. TCU coach Gary Patterson worried NCAA’s waivers will ruin college football
  7. Kansas has moved its Spring Game to mimic a basketball style late night event
  1. [3/22/2019] Friday's Off Topic Free Talk Thread
  2. [SERIES THREAD] ⚾ #9 Texas at #22 TCU
  3. At the game tonight
  4. Rams keeping Malcolm Brown in LA
  5. I fucking hate tcu
  6. Congrats on the no hitter and walk off grand slam tonight!!
  7. Jaxson Hayes did not suffer any structural damage in his left knee. Just a bone bruise and a full recovery is expected in the next few weeks.
This thread was programmatically generated and posted on 3/23/2019 12:00 AM
submitted by LonghornMod to LonghornNation [link] [comments]

The college basketball season gets underway Tuesday with a pair of top-4 matchups: Duke vs. Kansas (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) and Michigan State vs. Kentucky (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Below you'll find odds for each game, as well as a breakdown of how mismatches could present value in the betting market. No. 3 Kansas is set to play No. 4 Duke, while No. 1 Michigan State is taking on No. 2 Kentucky. Betting lines for these two big games have been released. Las Vegas likes the Spartans and the Jayhawks. Kansas vs. Kansas State odds, line: 2020 college basketball picks, Feb. 29 predictions by model on 66-40 run SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated Saturday's Kansas vs. Kansas State UC Irvine vs Kansas State March Madness Betting Trends. Anteaters are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall; Anteaters are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games; Wildcats are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss; Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games; Final Score Prediction for UC Irvine vs No. 1 Kansas holds off No. 10 Michigan State 92-87 in opener. Quentin Grimes scored 21 points in his college debut and Dedric Lawson added 20 points and 14 rebounds to lead No. 1 Kansas past No

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