RealClearPolitics - U.S. Presidential Election - Betting Odds

What were betting markets predicting for the 2016 presidential elections?

Does anyone have any historical data for betting markets on the 2016 general/primary elections?
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People betting on 2016 still think Jeb Bush will be the GOP nominee - "That's significant, because prediction markets are notorious for their accuracy—unlike primary campaign polls in the September before an election year."

People betting on 2016 still think Jeb Bush will be the GOP nominee - submitted by zapichigo to politics [link] [comments]

bias:Hillary:4872 posts in support since Oct 15,2016:How Hillary Clinton will govern -- "Hillary Clinton is rated by betting markets about a 90 per cent chance of winning the US presidential election, so it's time to contemplate: 'What sort of leader will she be?'"

bias:Hillary:4872 posts in support since Oct 15,2016:How Hillary Clinton will govern -- submitted by BitcoinAllBot to PoliticsAll [link] [comments]

Holy words from the man himself

Holy words from the man himself submitted by scottthang to JoeBiden [link] [comments]

Electability of 2016 Presidential Candidates as Implied by Betting Markets

Electability of 2016 Presidential Candidates as Implied by Betting Markets submitted by brathouz to Augur [link] [comments]

General Election Polling Discussion Thread (June 2020)

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race.
Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Pollster Date Released Race Trump Biden
Yougov 6/26 National 39 47
Marist/NPPBS 6/26 National 44 52
HarrisX 6/26 National 39 43
KFF 6/26 National 38 51
Climate Nexus 6/26 National 41 48
Fox News 6/25 Texas 44 45
Fox News 6/25 N. Carolina 45 47
Fox News 6/25 Georgia 45 47
Fox News 6/25 Florida 40 49
CNBC/Hart/POS 6/25 National 38 47
Hodas (R) 6/25 Michigan 38 56
Hodas (R) 6/25 Wisconsin 39 55
Hodas (R) 6/25 Pennsylvania 42 54
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Wisconsin 36 45
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 N. Carolina 40 46
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Arizona 39 43
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Michigan 36 47
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Pennsylvania 39 49
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Florida 41 45
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 N. Carolina 40 49
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Florida 41 47
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Michigan 36 47
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Pennsylvania 40 50
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Arizona 41 48
Data for Progress 6/24 National 44 50
PPP (D) 6/24 N. Carolina 46 48
Ipsos 6/24 National 37 47
Quinnipiac U. 6/24 Ohio 45 46
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/24 National 36 50
Morning Consult 6/24 National 39 47
Marquette LS 6/24 Wisconsin 42 51
PPP (D) 6/23 National 43 52
PPP (D) 6/23 Texas 48 46
Trafalgar (R) 6/22 Michigan 45 46
Echelon 6/22 National 42 50
Gravis 6/20 Minnesota 42 58
SurveyMonkey 6/20 National 43 53
Gravis/OANN 6/20 N. Carolina 46 43
Saint Anselm College 6/18 New Hampshire 42 49
Fox News 6/18 National 38 50
0ptimus 6/18 National 44 50
Civiqs (D) 6/18 Kentucky 57 37
Quinnipiac U. 6/18 National 41 49
UCLA/Democracy Fund 6/18 National 39 50
Change Research 6/17 Arizona 44 45
Change Research 6/17 N. Carolina 45 47
Change Research 6/17 Michigan 45 47
Change Research 6/17 Wisconsin 44 48
Change Research 6/17 Pennsylvania 46 49
Change Research 6/17 Florida 43 50
Change Research 6/17 National 41 51
Civiqs (D) 6/16 Arizona 45 49
PPP (D) 6/16 Georgia 46 48
PPP (D) 6/16 New Mexico 39 53
TIPP/Am. Greatness (R) 6/16 Michigan 38 51
TIPP/Am. Greatness (R) 6/16 Florida 40 51
NORC/AEI 6/16 National 32 40
EPIC-MRA 6/16 Michigan 39 55
Scott Rasmussen 6/15 National 36 48
Abacus Data 6/15 National 41 51
SelzeDMR 6/15 Iowa 44 43
Hendrix College 6/14 Arkansas 47 45
Remington Research (R) 6/13 Missouri 51 43
Meeting Street Insights 6/12 National 38 49

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
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What should Joe Biden look for in his Vice Presidential Pick?

  1. Joe Biden is the presumptive Democratic nominee. He will be 78 years old if he is inaugurated in January 2021 so obviously his VP pick is extremely important.
  2. He's picking a woman as he said. I don't see him going back on this so no Bernie, no Pete Buttigieg, no Beto.
  3. Highly likely he will pick someone younger than him (<77). That eliminates Pelosi or Feinstein or Maxine Wate. Yes, I know he probably wasn't going to pick any of those people above anyway
  4. Betting markets have Kamala favored to be the pick, with Klobuchar at 2nd place: https://www.electionbettingodds.com/DemVP2020.html
  5. Biden is a stronger candidate than Hillary by comparing their primary runs. "In fact, Biden finished first in 93 percent of the counties that Clinton won in 2016. On top of that, he won 83 percent of the counties that Sanders carried in 2016" https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-is-joe-biden-remaking-the-2016-primary-map/. But Hillary wasn't facing an incumbent President, Biden is.
The choices
A. Rust Belt Support: Warren, Whitmer, Klobuchar have the most support in the Rust Belt states, which the Democrats lost in 2016. https://www.axios.com/vice-president-women-color-warren-poll-biden-c75d2901-aead-424c-a5b1-a987ab312c6c.html
B. Latino support: Cortez Masto https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/biden-tells-harry-reid-nevada-sen-catherine-cortez-masto-is-in-his-top-3-for-vice-president/
C. African American support: Harris or Abrams https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/15/politics/stacey-abrams-vice-president-joe-biden/index.html
D. Wild Card Pick?
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The truth behind Puskás Akadémia FC - How Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán stole a legend, built a stadium in his backyard and guided his team to Europe

The 2019/2020 season of the Hungary’s National Football League (NB1) – being one of the first leagues to restart play - came to an end on 27 June. If a casual observer (for whatever reason) decides to check out the final standings, he would be not surprised at the first two positions: record-champion Ferencváros defended their title, while regional powerhouse Fehérvár (Videoton) came in second. However, the third place team, Puskás Akadémia FC might seem unusual and one could think that there is a story behind that. Is there a team named after Ferenc Puskás? Did some academy youths make an incredible run for the Europa League qualification? Well, the observer is right, there is a story behind all this, but it’s absolutely not a fun story. It’s a story about how one powerful man’s obsession with football stole a legend, misused state funds and killed the spirit of Hungarian football. (Warning: this is a long story, feel free to scroll down for a tl;dr. Also, I strongly advise checking out the links, those images are worth seeing).
Naturally, political influence in football has been present ever since the dawn of the sport and we know of numerous state leaders who felt confident enough to use their influence to ensure the successful development of their favored clubs – Caucescu’s FC Olt Scornicesti and Erdogan’s Basaksehir are well-known examples of such attempts. However, I fear that very few of the readers are aware of the fact that Puskás Akadémia FC is nothing but Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán’s grandiose project for establishing his hometown’s club as one of the country’s top teams. Considering that Orbán managed to achieve this goal using state funds in an EU member democracy in the 2000s, one might even say that it might be one of the most impressive attempts of cheating your way through Football Manager in real life. Now that Puskás Akadémia FC escaped the desolate football scene of Hungary and is getting ready for the European takeover, I feel that it’s high time to tell its true story.

Part 1: Part time striker, part time PM

Our story begins in 1999 when the 36-year-old striker Viktor Orbán (recently elected as the country’s Prime Minister) was signed by the sixth-tier side of Felcsút FC residing in rural Fejér County. It might sound surprising that an active politician would consider such a side job, but given that Orbán has been playing competitive low-level football throughout his whole life and has always been known as a keen football enthusiast, people seemed to be okay with his choice for a hobby. Orbán spent most of his childhood in the village of Felcsút (population: 1,800), so it seemed only natural that he would join the team after one of his old-time acquaintances became team president there.
Orbán’s arrival to the club seemed to work like a charm as Felcsút FC immediately earned a promotion to the fifth league. The Prime Minister’s busy program did not allow him to attend every training session and game but Orbán did make an effort to contribute as much as possible on the field – there is a report of a government meeting being postponed as Orbán was unavailable due to attending Felcsút FC’s spring training camp. The 2001/2002 season brought another breakthrough for the side as Felcsút was promoted to the national level of the football pyramid after being crowned the champion of Fejér County. Sadly enough for Orbán, he suffered a defeat on another pitch – his party lost the 2002 election and Orbán was forced to move to an opposition role.
No matter what happened on the political playing field, Orbán would not abandon his club. Just before the 2002 elections, Felcsút was surprisingly appointed as one of the regional youth development centers by the Hungarian FA. Orbán continued contributing on the field as well (he had more spare time after all) but his off-the-field efforts provided much more value for the team as he used his political influence to convince right-wing businessmen that they should definitely get sponsorship deals done with the fourth-division village team.
Club management was able to transform the influx of funds into on-field success: Felcsút FC was promoted to the third division in 2004 and achieved promotion to the second division in 2005. Although these new horizons required a skill level that an aging ex-PM is not likely to possess, Orbán regularly played as a late game sub and even appeared in cup games against actual professional opponents. The now-42-year old Orbán did not want to face the challenge of the second division, so he retired in 2005 – but this did not stop him from temping as an assistant coach when the head coach was sacked in the middle of the 2005-2006 season.
Success on the playing field did not translate to political success: Orbán lost the elections once again in 2006. However, this was only a temporary loss: the ruling party committed blunder after blunder and by early 2007 it became absolutely obvious that Orbán would be able return to power in 2010. Now confident in his political future, Orbán opted for the acceleration of football development in Felcsút – by late 2007 he took over the presidency of the club to take matters in his own hands. Sponsors seeking to gain favor with the soon-to-be PM were swarming Felcsút FC, so the club was able to stand very strong in an era where financial stability was a very rare sight in the Hungarian football scene, accumulating three medals (but no promotion) between 2007 and 2009.
On the other hand, Orbán realized the value of youth development as well, and started a local foundation for this purpose back in 2004 that gathered funds for the establishment a boarding school-like football academy. The academy opened its doors in September 2006 (only the second of such institutions in the country) and Orbán immediately took upon the challenge of finding an appropriate name for the academy.
He went on to visit the now very sick Ferenc Puskás in the hospital to discuss using his name, but as Puskás’ medical situation was deteriorating rapidly, communication attempts were futile. Luckily enough Puskás’ wife (and soon to be widow) was able to act on his incapable husband’s behalf and approved the naming deal in a contract. According to the statement, naming rights were granted without compensation, as “Puskás would have certainly loved what’s happening down in Felcsút”. However, there was much more to the contract: Puskás’ trademark was handed to a sports journalist friend of Orbán (György Szöllősi, also acting communications director of the academy) who promised a hefty annual return for the family (and also a 45% share of the revenue for himself). Ferenc Puskás eventually died on 17 November 2006 and on 26 November 2006 the football academy was named after him: Puskás Academy was born.
Orbán shared his vision of the whole organization after the opening ceremony: “It’s unreasonable to think that Felcsút should have a team in the top division. We should not flatter ourselves, our players and our supporters with this dream. Our long term ambition is the creation of a stable second division team that excels in youth development and provides opportunity for the talents of the future.” Let’s leave that there.

Part 2: No stadium left behind

Orbán became PM once again in April 2010 after a landslide victory that pretty much granted him unlimited power. He chased lots of political agendas but one of his policies was rock solid: he would revive sports (and especially football) that was left to bleed out by the previous governments. The football situation in 2010 was quite dire: while the national team has actually made some progress in the recent years and has reached the 42nd position in the world rankings, football infrastructure was in a catastrophic state. Teams were playing in rusty stadiums built in the communist era, club finances were a mess, youth teams couldn’t find training grounds and the league was plagued by violent fan groups and lackluster attendance figures (3100 average spectators per game in the 2009/2010 season).
Orbán – aided by the FA backed by business actors very interested in making him happy – saw the future in the total rebuild of the football infrastructure. Vast amounts of state development funds were invested into the football construction industry that warmly welcomed corruption, cost escalation and shady procurement deals. In the end, money triumphed: over the last decade, new stadiums sprung out from nothing all over the country, dozens of new academies opened and pitches for youth development appeared on practically every corner. The final piece of the stadium renovation program was the completion of the new national stadium, Puskás Aréna in 2019 (estimated cost: 575 million EUR). Orbán commemorated this historic moment with a celebratory video on his social media that features a majestic shot of Orbán modestly kicking a CGI ball from his office to the new stadium.
Obviously, Orbán understood that infrastructure alone won’t suffice. He believed in the idea that successful clubs are the cornerstone of a strong national side as these clubs would compete in a high quality national league (and in international tournaments) that would require a constant influx of youth players developed by the clubs themselves. However, Orbán was not really keen on sharing the state’s infinite wealth with private club owners who failed to invest in their clubs between 2002 and 2010. The club ownership takeover was not that challenging as previous owners were usually happy to cut their losses, and soon enough most clubs came under Orbán’s influence. Some clubs were integrated deep into Orbán’s reach (Ferencváros and MTK Budapest club presidents are high ranking officials of Orbán’s party) while in other cases, indirect control was deemed sufficient (Diósgyőri VTK was purchased by a businessman as an attempt to display loyalty to Orbán).
Pouring taxpayer money into infrastructure (stadium) projects is relatively easy: after all, we are basically talking about overpriced government construction projects, there’s nothing new there. On the other hand, allocating funds to clubs that should be operating on a competitive market is certainly a tougher nut to crack. The obvious solutions were implemented: the state media massively overpaid for broadcasting rights and the national sports betting agency also pays a hefty sum to the FA, allowing for a redistribution of considerable amounts. However, given that the income side of Hungarian clubs was basically non-existent (match day income is negligible, the failed youth development system does not sell players), an even more radical solution was desperately needed. Also, there was definite interest in the development of a tool that would allow for differentiation between clubs (as in the few remaining non-government affiliated clubs should not receive extra money).
The solution came in 2011: the so-called TAO (“társasági adó” = corporate tax) system was introduced, granting significant tax deductions for companies if they offered a portion of their profits to sports clubs – however, in theory, funds acquired through TAO can be only used for youth development and infrastructure purposes. Soon enough, it became apparent that state authorities were not exactly interested in the enforcement of these restrictions, so some very basic creative accounting measures enabled clubs to use this income for anything they wanted to. Companies were naturally keen on cutting their tax burdens and scoring goodwill with the government, so TAO money immediately skyrocketed. Opportunistic party strongmen used their influence to convince local business groups to invest in the local clubs, enabling for the meteoric rise of multiple unknown provincial teams (Mezőkövesd [pop: 16,000], Kisvárda [pop: 16,000], Balmazújváros [pop: 17,000]) into the first division.
Although it’s not the main subject of this piece, I feel inclined to show you the actual results of Orbán’s grandiose football reform. While we do have our beautiful stadiums, we don’t exactly get them filled – league attendance has stagnated around 3000 spectators per game throughout the whole decade. We couldn’t really move forward with our national team either: Hungary lost 10 positions in the FIFA World Rankings throughout Orbán’s ten years. On the other hand, the level of league has somewhat improved – Videoton and Ferencváros reached the Europa League group stage in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Too bad that the Instat-based top team of 2019/2020 Hungarian league consists of 10 foreigners and only 1 Hungarian: the goalkeeper.

Part 3: Small place, big game!

As seen in the previous chapter, Orbán did have a strong interest in the improvement of the football situation Hungary, but we shouldn’t forget that his deepest interest and true loyalty laid in the wellbeing of Felcsút and its academy. Now that Orbán had limitless means to see to the advancement of his beloved club, he got to work immediately. Orbán handed over formal club management duties to his friend / protégé / middleman / businessman Lőrinc Mészáros in 2010, but no questions would ever arise of who is actually calling the shots.
First of all, no club can exist without a proper stadium. Although in 2011 Orbán explicitly stated that “Felcsút does not need a stadium as stadiums belong to cities”, no one was really surprised in 2012 when the construction of the Felcsút stadium was announced. Orbán was generous enough to donate the lands just in front of his summer home in the village for the project, locating the entrance a mere ten meters away from his residence. Construction works for the stunningly aesthetic 3,800-seater arena (in a village of 1,800 people) started in April 2012 and were completed in April 2014, making Felcsút’s arena the second new stadium of Orbán’s gigantic stadium revival program.
The estimated budget of the construction was 120 million EUR (31,500 EUR / seat) was financed by the Puskás Academy who explicitly stated that they did not use government funds for the project. Technically, this statement is absolutely true as the construction was financed through the TAO money offered by the numerous companies looking for tax deduction and Orbán’s goodwill. However, technically, this means that the country’s budget was decreased by 120 million EUR unrealized tax revenue. Naturally, the gargantuan football stadium looks ridiculously out of place in the small village, but there’s really no other way to ensure that your favorite team’s stadium is within 20 seconds of walking distance from your home.
Obviously, a proper club should also have some glorious history. Felcsút was seriously lagging behind on this matter as though Felcsút FC was founded in 1931, it spent its pre-Orbán history in the uninspiring world of the 5th-7th leagues of the country. Luckily enough, Orbán had already secured Puskás’ naming rights and they were not afraid to use it, so Felcsút FC was renamed to Puskás Academy FC in 2009. The stadium name was a little bit problematic as the Hungarian national stadium in Budapest had sadly had the dibs on Puskás’ name, so they had to settle with Puskás’ Spanish nickname, resulting in the inauguration of the Pancho Arena. But why stop here? Orbán’s sports media strongman György Szöllősi acted upon the contract with Puskás’ widow and transferred all Puskás’ personal memorabilia (medals, jerseys, correspondence) to the most suitable place of all: a remote village in which Puskás never even set foot in.
While the off-field issues were getting resolved, Orbán’s attention shifted to another important area: the actual game of football. Although academy players started to graduate from 2008 on, it very soon became painfully obvious that the academy program couldn’t really maintain even a second division side for now. In 2009, Orbán reached an agreement with nearby Videoton’s owner that effectively transformed Felcsút FC into Videoton’s second team under the name of Videoton – Puskás Akadémia FC. The mutually beneficent agreement would allow Videoton to give valuable playing time to squad players while it could also serve as a skipping step for Puskás Academy’s fresh graduates to a first league team. The collaboration resulted in two mid-table finishes and a bronze medal in the second division in the following three seasons that wasn’t really impressive compared to Felcsút FC’s standalone seasons.
It seemed that the mixture of reserve Videoton players and academy youth was simply not enough for promotion, and although Orbán had assured the public multiple times that his Felcsút project was not aiming for the top flight, very telling changes arose after the 2011/2012 season. Felcsút terminated the Videoton cooperation deal and used the rapidly accumulating TAO funds to recruit experienced players for the now independently operating Puskás Academy FC (PAFC). The new directive worked almost too well: PAFC won its division with a 10 point lead in its first standalone year which meant that they would have to appear in the first league prior to the completion of their brand-new Pancho Arena. Too bad that this glorious result had almost nothing to do with the academy - only two players were academy graduates of the side’s regular starting XI.
Orbán did not let himself bothered with the ridiculousness of an academy team with virtually no academy players being promoted to the first division as he stated that “a marathon runner shouldn’t need to explain why the other runners were much slower than him”. Orbán also displayed a rare burst of modesty as he added that “his team’s right place is not in the first league, and they will soon be overtaken by other, better sides”.
The promotion of PAFC to the first division made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move. Supporter groups were united in hatred all along the league and not surprisingly, away fans almost always outnumbered the home side at PAFC’s temporary home at Videoton’s Sóstói Stadium (demolished and rebuilt in its full glory since then). One of the teams, however, possessed an extraordinary degree of anger against PAFC: supporters of Budapest Honvéd – the only Hungarian team in which Ferenc Puskás played – felt especially awkward about the transfer of their club legend’s heritage to Felcsút. Tensions spiked at the PAFC – Honvéd game when home security forced Honvéd supporters to remove the “Puskás” part of their traditional “Puskás – Kispest – Hungary” banner – the team answered the insult with style as they secured a 4-0 victory supported by fans chanting “you can’t buy legends”.
Despite Orbán’s prognosis, other better sides did not rush to overtake his team, so PAFC, now residing in their brand new Pancho Arena, came through with a 14th and a 10th place in their first two seasons. Naturally, conspiracy theories began to formulate, speculating that government-friendly owners would certainly not be motivated to give their best against PAFC. However, as the league size was reduced to 12 for the 2015/2016 season, PAFC found themselves in a dire situation just before the final round: they needed a win and needed rival Vasas to lose against MTK in order to avoid relegation. PAFC’s draw seemed to be unlucky as they faced their arch-enemy Honvéd at home, but Honvéd displayed an absolute lackluster effort – fueling conspiracy theories – and lost the fixture 2 to 1 against a home side featuring four academy players. Vasas, however, did not disappoint, their 2-0 victory resulted in PAFC’s elimination and a very relaxed sigh all over the football community.
PAFC’s relegation seemed to be in accordance with Orbán’s 2013 statement, so public opinion supposed for a while that Orbán’s project came to a halting point and the Academy would go on to actually field academy players in the second division (especially as rostering foreign players was prohibited in the lower leagues). However, if you have read through this point, you know better than to expect Orbán to retreat – obviously, PAFC came back with a bang. With a ballsy move, PAFC didn’t even sell their foreign players, they just loaned them across the league, promising them that they would be able to return next year to the newly promoted team. The promise was kept as PAFC went into another shopping spree of experienced players (easily convincing lots of them to choose the second division instead of the first) and easily won the second league.
Orbán – now aware of his negligence – opted for the doubling the team’s budget, making PAFC the third most well-founded club in the whole country (only coming short to his friend’s Videoton and his party minion’s Ferencváros). With an actual yearly influx from TAO money in the ballpark of 30-40 million EUR, PAFC management had to really work wonders in creative accounting in order to make their money look somewhat legitimate. The books were now full of ridiculous items like:
Naturally, in the country of no consequences, absolutely nothing happened: PAFC went on with its spending and signed 35 foreigners between 2017 and 2020. They did so because they could not hope to field a winning team in the first league consisting of academy players, despite the fact that Puskás Academy has been literally drowning in money since 2007. This seems to somewhat contradict Orbán’s 2013 promise, stating that “Puskás Academy will graduate two or three players to major European leagues each year”. To be fair, there have been players who managed to emerge to Europe (well, exactly two of them: Roland Sallai plays at Freiburg, László Kleinheisler played at Werder Bremen) but most academy graduates don’t even have the slightest the chance to make their own academy’s pro team as it’s full of foreigners and more experienced players drawn for other teams’ programs.
Despite their unlimited funding, PAFC could not put up a top-tier performance in their first two years back in the first division, finishing 6th and 7th in the 12-team league. Many speculated that the lack of support, motivation and even a clear team mission did not allow for chemistry to develop within the multinational and multi-generational locker room. Consistency was also a rare sight on the coaching side: club management was absolutely impatient with coaches who were very easily released after a single bad spell and there were talks of on-field micromanagement request coming from as high as Orbán.
Even so, their breakthrough came dangerously close in 2018 as PAFC performed consistently well in the cup fixtures and managed to reach the final. Their opponent, Újpest played an incredibly fierce game and after a 2-2 draw, they managed to defeat PAFC in the shootout. Football fans sighed in relief throughout the country as ecstatic Újpest supporters verbally teased a visibly upset Orbán in his VIP lounge about his loss.
Obviously, we could only delay the inevitable. While this year’s PAFC side seemed to be more consistent than its predecessors, it seemed that they won’t be able to get close to the podium - they were far behind the obvious league winner duo of Ferencváros and Videoton and were trailing third-place Mezőkövesd 6 points just before the pandemic break. However, both Mezőkövesd and PAFC’s close rivals DVTK and Honvéd fall flat after the restart while PAFC was able to maintain its good form due to its quality roster depth. PAFC overtook Mezőkövesd after the second-to-last round as Mezőkövesd lost to the later relegated Debrecen side. (Mezőkövesd coach Attila Kuttor was fined harshly because of his post-game comments on how the FA wants PAFC to finish third.)
PAFC faced Honvéd in the last round once again, and as Honvéd came up with its usual lackluster effort, PAFC secured an effortless win, confidently claiming the third place. PAFC celebrated their success in a nearly empty stadium, however neither Orbán, nor Mészáros (club owner, Orbán’s protégé, now 4th richest man of Hungary) seemed to worry about that. While Orbán high-fived with his peers in the VIP lounge, Mészáros was given the opportunity to award the bronze medals (and for some reason, a trophy) to the players dressed up in the incredibly cringe worthy T-shirts that say “Small place, big game!”. Big game, indeed: in the 2019/2020 season, foreign players’ share of the teams playing time was 43.6% while academy graduates contributed only 17.9%.
On Sunday evening, less than 24 hours after PAFC’s glorious success, György Szöllősi, now editor-in-chief of Hungary’s only sports newspaper (purchased by Orbán’s affiliates a few years back) published an editorial on the site, stating that “the soccer rebuild in Felcsút became the motor and symbol of the revitalization of sport throughout the whole country”. Well, Szöllősi is exactly right: Felcsút did became a symbol, but a symbol of something entirely different. Felcsút became a symbol of corruption, inefficiency, lies and the colossal waste of money. But, hey, at least we know now: you only need to spend 200 million EUR (total budget of PAFC and its academy in the 2011-2020 period) if you want to have a Europa League team in your backyard. Good to know!

Epilogue: What's in the future?

As there is no foreseeable chance for political change to happen Hungary (Orbán effortlessly secured qualified majority in 2014 and 2018, and is projected to do so in 2022 as well), PAFC’s future seems to be as bright as it gets. Although consensus opinion now seems to assume that Orbán does not intend to interfere with the Ferencváros – Videoton hegemony, we can never be really sure about the exact limits of his greed. One could also argue that entering the European theater serves as a prime opportunity for making splashy transfers who could be the cornerstones of a side challenging the league title.
However, as all political systems are deemed to fall, eventually Orbán’s regime will come apart. Whoever will take upon the helm after Orbán, they will certainly begin with cutting back on the one item on Orbán’s agenda that never had popular support: limitless football spending. Puskás Academy, having next to zero market revenue, will not be able to survive without the state’s life support, so the club will fold very shortly. The abandoned, rotting stadium in Felcsút will serve as a memento of a powerful man who could not understand the true spirit of football.
But let’s get back to present day, as we have more pressing issues coming up soon: PAFC will play their first European match in the First qualifying round of the Europa League on 27 August. We don’t have a date for the draw yet, but soon enough, a team unaware of the whole situation will be selected to face the beast. I hope that maybe one of their players does some research and maybe reads this very article for inspiration. I hope that the supporters of this club get in touch with Honvéd fans who would be eager to provide them with some tips on appropriate chants. I hope that other teams gets drawn as the home team so Orbán wouldn’t get the pleasure of walking to his stadium for an international match. But most importantly, I very much hope that this team obliterates PAFC and wipes them off the face of the earth. 5-0 will suffice, thank you.
And if this team fails to do that, we don’t have to worry yet. Due to our shitty league coefficient, PAFC would need to win four fixtures in a row. And that – if there’s any justice in this world – is a thing that can’t, that won’t happen. Ball don’t lie – if I may say.
TL,DR
Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán redirected some 200 million EUR of taxpayer money over 10 years to fuel his ambition of raising a competitive football team in his hometown of 1,800 people. He built a 3,800-seater stadium in his backyard, expropriated football legend Ferenc Puskás’ trademarks and heritage and built up a football league where almost all clubs are owned by his trustees. His team, Puskás Akadémia FC was originally intended to be a development ground for youth players graduating from Orbán’s football academy, but eventually the team became more and more result-orianted. Finally, a roster full of foreign and non-academy players came through and finished third in the league, releasing this abomination of a team to the European football theatre. Please, knock them out asap!
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Confidence isn't complacency

Let's cut to the chase: Joe Biden is likely to be the next president.
It seems that the moment I say this, I get a bunch of smug responses bordering on concern trolling, "Remember 2016!"--along with the warning not to be "complacent."
The thing is, I don't see anyone being complacent. And I think 2016 hovers over most people's minds. Betting markets currently give Biden about a 55% chance--a modest favorite, but nothing compared to the 75+% they were giving Hillary four years ago, even though Biden's poll numbers are better than Hillary's.
I also think a lot of people are forgetting why there was complacency in 2016. It wasn't the polls. First of all, the notion that 2016 represented a massive polling error is a myth. The polls slightly underestimated Trump, but not to an abnormal or unprecedented degree. (A few days before the election, 538 ran an article titled "Trump is just a normal polling error behind Clinton.") Moreover, it's not exactly true that Dems have always treated polls as gospel. If you look back to a lot of the commentary during the 2008 cycle when Obama led the polls most of the time, sometimes by a substantial margin, there was still a great deal of anxiety among Dems that he might somehow still lose. If McCain had managed to win despite what the polls had said--which would have required a much greater polling error than in 2016--most Dems would have been surprised, disappointed, and depressed. But it would have been nothing remotely approaching the blinding shock and disbelief on Election Night 2016.
It wasn't the polls that caused that feeling. It was the overwhelming sense that there was no way a man like Donald Trump could possibly be elected. Hillary's (modest) polling advantage contributed to people's confidence that this assumption was sound, but the assumption itself, not the polls, is what drove people's refusal to believe a Trump win was possible.
This seems utterly obvious, and yet it's like people have forgotten. The very words "President Trump" were nothing more than a joke to most people before 2016. His political rise may well be the single most bizarre turn of events in US history. But once he won, and the initial shock began to wear off, people gradually started to process it as "normal" and to blame their previous overconfidence on polling failure.
Nothing like that is happening now. You can argue if you like that Biden is in a weaker position than the current polls seem to indicate, but you cannot seriously suggest anyone is being "complacent" the way they were four years ago. Everyone realizes a man like Trump can win, because everyone has seen it happen once already. Just because many people are confident about Biden's chances doesn't mean they're being complacent about it. And just because you may think Biden is in fact the underdog doesn't mean those who think differently are planning to sit out the election or something, like so many did last time. The best antidote to complacency is simply to vote, and to encourage others to vote--it is not to commit yourself to the position that Trump is the favorite no matter what the facts may suggest.
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CAUCUS RESULTS MEGA LIVE THREAD! LIVE!!

LINKS!
Major Edit: Watch Live: Iowa Democratic Party Press Conference to Release Caucus Results
Iowa Democratic Caucus Results
Edit II: Jordan, LIVE!
Edit: Robby Mook (2016 Clinton Campaign Manager) in Charge of Counting Dem votes in Iowa
https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/primaries/democratic/iowa/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/feb/03/iowa-caucus-results-winner-live-tracker-county-primary-polls
https://features.desmoinesregister.com/news/politics/iowa-caucuses-results-alignment
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/feb/03/iowa-caucus-results-winner-live-tracker-county-primary-polls
Jimmy Dore LIVE!
Betting Markets link
submitted by FThumb to WayOfTheBern [link] [comments]

How to Trade societal collapse

Alright, first time poster so we’ll see if you retards like what I got as I put way more effort into this than you deserve (even some charts for you to look at as you pretend to read).
TLDR; guns & ammo, lots of people are buying lots of guns & ammo. SWBI, RGR, OLN, VSTO calls.
COVID-19, Riots, and Protests = Lots of New Gun Owners
It’s been highlighted in the news starting with COVID but with protestors calling for the defunding of the police (WCGW?) and police budgets actually getting slashed across the country people are understandably feeling a little anxious and becoming gun owners is massive numbers.
MILLIONS OF FIRST-TIME GUN BUYERS DURING COVID-19
Coronavirus Fears Have Produced A Lot Of New Gun Owners
Street violence stoke demand
Even gun hating CNN commented on how many guns are being bought
The FBI keeps track of background checks for firearms through their NICS system. For the latest months data (May) there were over 3 MILLION background checks run. It’s not a direct comparable but this loosely means there were roughly 3 million firearms transaction in that month. Third highest ever recorded (March 2020 and December 2015 were higher). The clear trend is that these purchases are only increasing over the short term.
https://i.imgur.com/CWCfQB5.gif
Source: FBI NICS records
The FBI has provided a handy ‘Top 10” list and half of ‘highest days” and ‘highest weeks’ on record happened in 2020. Likely you’ll see a few more 2020 on that list by the end of the year.
https://i.imgur.com/cAslVO0.png
Election Years
Common fact that election years always see a spike in gun sales as the NRA and Republicans always fear monger their base into thinking the next Democrat is going to take away all of their freedoms and surprise it works. Gun sales are again spiking in 2020.
Why was this election years panic buying delayed compared to 2016?
In 2016 no one thought Trump was going to win and Hillary aka satan was going to take everyones guns away so people started buying earlier since the “writing was on the wall”. But whoopsies CNN and MSNBC got it wrong and guns were safe for another 4 years and sales declined.
In 2020 the polls and ‘experts’ assumed Trump basically had his reelection in the bag given how the economy was harder than a teenager on Viagra and was his to lose… and he lost it. COVID-19 tanking the economy with record unemployment and his attacks on protestors, stupid shit posted on twitter, all while threatening to deploy the US military has given Sleepy Joe a 10 point average lead in the polls by doing nothing but hide in his basement. So now everyone that thought their guns were safe are once again panic buying in earnest.
2020 is a bit different than years past in that Gun Control is a major part of the democratic policy platform that they are campaigning on. Francis O’Rouke in the primaries only had one policy that he was campaigning on and that was gun control with his famous "Hell, yes, we're going to take your AR-15, your AK-47."
Guess who Joe Biden picked to lead his gun control initiative? It rhymes with ‘Pork’. Here’s a few tid bits from Sleepy Joe’s gun control platform
· Ban the manufacture and sale of assault weapons and high-capacity magazines
· Regulate possession of existing assault weapons under the National Firearms Act
· Buy back the assault weapons and high-capacity magazines
· Reduce stockpiling of weapons
How does an anti-gun presidential candidate help sell guns?
The greatest gun salesman in American history was good ole Barrack Hussein Obama and all he ever did was issue press conferences and talk a big talk but never actually did anything. Fun Fact: Donald Trump has issued more gun control edicts than Obamas entire presidency, but facts don’t matter, only perception does. People actually believe that the string pullers behind Joe Biden will go hard on gun control (but the NRA says that every election).
Basically, I’m saying there is a high probability that if Joe Biden wins the election he’ll replace Obama as the greatest firearms salesman of all time and there will be a whole lot of gun buying leading up to that.
Alright you’ve convinced me the world sucks and people are scared and buying lots of guns.
How do you play this?
Not to many names to choose from but we have 2 publicly traded companies that sell guns directly to the public and both have seen some big short term rallies, but there’s a lot of juice left in these names and the election is only going to create more gun & ammo buying. Both these names haven’t hit their 2016 peaks (last presidential election) and I think there’s enough other shit going on to help these names surpass those 2016 peaks due to new gun buyers (not seen in 2016) and panic buying because protests, rioters, and cops being terrible in additional to the normal and expected right wing buyers every election year. If we use 2016 as an example we see a trend upward as buying intensifies and then with the surprise Trump win a massive drop and then a continued trend down through his presidency as people stop panic buying.
https://i.imgur.com/EuOdsD3.png
https://i.imgur.com/b5lMPPu.png
Here’s what I’ve done with the expectation that I’ll be buying more as the election cycle heats up.
TLDR; Gun play SWBI 7/17 22.5c and RGR 7/17 80c if you have balls of steel oryou can go longer dated and holding through the election.
Thanks for the tip asshole these names have already stonked…
Logic dictates that if you buy a gun you’ll buy ammo next. On top of that the panic buying of ammo goes hand in hand with the panic buying of guns. The hoarding of ammo is part of the American dream. The popular .223 and 5.56 rifle round has doubled in price since the end of 2019. The little 22lr has tripled in price.
Ammo.com did a special news update that ammo sales are through the roof from COVID. Directly from their site
· 602% increase in revenue
· 511% increase in transactions
· 242% increase in site traffic
· 84% increase in conversion rate
· 16% increase in average order value
We’re seeing the news report on this all over the country and this trend will only continue as we ramp up into election season. Couple examples.
'Ammo is really a scarcity:' Iowa gun stores feel effects of coronavirus hoarding
Panic At The Gun Shop
Floridians stockpiling guns and ammo amid national crises
You can bet all the major ammo suppliers are operating at full capacity to try and meet this new found demand. Federal Premium Ammo posted on facebook a pic of their president in the shop loading ammo into boxes. Obviously a PR stunt but point being demand for ammo is up.
https://i.imgur.com/BcvLnIU.png
The two biggest retail ammo manufacturers in the country are Federal Premium and Winchester owned by Vista Outdoor (VSTO) and Olin (OLN) respectively. Both of these names haven’t stonked like the others and will likely see uplift from ammo sales but there’s a catch. Winchester Ammo segment for OLN represents 10-15% of EBITDA for the company so even if ammo sales is through the roof the rest of the business may choke on COVIDS donkey dong tempering said uplift from ammo sales.
VSTO has higher exposure in that Federal Ammo represents 2/3rds of their sales but the other 1/3rd of the business is golf, camping, and camelbak gear that no one gave a shit about during COVID but could potentially see a resurgence in demand with lockdowns being lifted across the country.
TLDR; Ammo Play is VSTO 11/20 15c and if you understand chemical jargon that I don’t OLN 8/21 15c



***EDIT*** 6/21/2020 Update
Time for the follow up. If you bought at the time of this post all names are up with the clear winners being RGR and VSTO. OLN has been a kangeroo all week but I gave no promises on this one considering 70% of its EBITDA is tied to the energy sector which has more ups and downs than a bipolar teenager.
I was disappointed with the markets response to SWBI's earnings report out after thursday's close which the market met with a collective "meh" with the name trading off from its pre-earnings release run up. The gun segment of SWBI beat even the highest inflated expectations of the street but it seems this was lost on the $90 million write off for the non firearms business that is being spun out in August. Management was very instructive highlighting that this buying spree is different as it includes lots of new gun owners with the expectation that some percentage of these new buyers will continue in shooting sports. Take away is that gun demand is only going to increase in 2020 with most likely a cool off in demand in 2021. The 4 analysts that cover the name upped their price targets with the average being $22.50.
Hindsight is always 20/20 but if I could play SWBI again I would have bought the same 7/17 22.5c on Monday and then on Thursday you could have sold a 7/17 25c for more than what you'd paid for Mondays 7/17/ 22.5c locking in a 10% profit and essentially keeping a free call option through the earnings report.
RGR and VSTO were pure money ending the week up despite the broader market kangeroo court.

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Defending the Draft: New England Patriots

Preface
Going into the 2019 season, the Patriots held very high expectations. The defense that had just shut down the high-powered 2018 Rams offense had arguably gotten better. Although the offense had lost Rob Gronkowski, the addition of first-round WR N’Keal Harry and free agent Demaryius Thomas seemed to at least keep their offensive options. Combining this with Sony Michel coming off a successful rookie campaign and 4 of 5 starters of a strong offensive line, with Trent Brown being replaced by 2018 1st round selection Isaiah Wynn, the offensive situation looked optimistic for New England.
As the team progressed through the 2019 preseason and into the season itself, things began to look even better. Although N’Keal Harry injured himself in the first preseason game, the team was eventually informed that Josh Gordon would be reinstated, even being allowed to start Week 1. The defense showed its prowess throughout the preseason, especially against the Lions and Panthers, with the only bad game coming against the Giants, when the Patriots mainly played people at the bottom of the depth chart. To add to New England fans’ excitement, they saw their team sign WR Antonio Brown the night before the team’s debut against the Steelers. As New England embarrassed Brown’s former team 33-3, and then the Dolphins 43-0 it seemed almost inevitable that New England would become the first franchise to win 7 Super Bowls.
However, that was not how the season progressed. Brown couldn’t handle himself even under Belichick’s control, and his decision to threaten the children of one of his accusers of sexual assault found him released from the team. Josh Gordon was injured Week 6 against the Giants, eventually being medically released and later found to have relapsed when he was on the Seahawks. The rest of the offense was riddled with injuries: Julian Edelman had nagging rib injuries, Philip Dorsett hurt his foot early in the year and also sustained a concussion, Mohammed Sanu sustained an ankle injury in his first game, early kick/punt returner Gunner Olsewski was injured in Week 7, Brady himself reportedly struggled with his elbow. The worst effects of injury came against the Offensive Line, as 4 out of the 5 starters sustained some injury, and this is not including the fact that C David Andrews missed the whole season because of pulmonary embolism. The most impactful injury out of this bunch was LT Isaiah Wynn, as the team had to deploy Marshall Newhouse to replace him, a role that Newhouse did not fill adequately, to say the least. Blocking also suffered when FB James Devlin suffered a season ending injury, followed by his backup Jakob Johnson also being put on IR only a few games later. Matt LaCosse and Ben Watson both missed multiple games, forcing the team to only roll with Ryan Izzo at tight end at some times.
These many injuries, as well as a terrible TE corps, not only stunted the passing attack but also crippled the running game. Michel was often met and tackled in the backfield, resulting in a terrible YPC despite being the AFC East’s leading rusher. Despite these offense struggles, the team’s excellent defense performance, in combination with facing many subpar offenses, carried the team to a 12-4 record and the 3rd seed in the AFC. However, the offensive struggles were too great for the team; although the team’s defense held the red-hot Titans offense to 14 points and gave the offense multiple chances to pull ahead, the offense failed to perform when needed, unable to finish drives, even when on Tennessee’s 1-yard line. Sometimes you really do need an offense to win a championship.
Pre-draft
Notable Losses
QB Tom Brady, FA, Buccaneers: The one loss that seemed unthinkable until it really happened. Even though we knew that Brady’s contract voided after this year, many fans thought he was still going to re-sign and finish his career here. However, New England really did not have the cap space to do so and build a satisfactory team around him, causing Brady to decide to sign with the Buccaneers, a team with high offensive potential and has a shot at the super bowl. The Greatest QB of All Time will be missed here in New England, as the team experiences uncertainty at the position for the first time in nearly 20 years.
FB James Devlin, Retirement: When it was announced that it was a neck injury that sidelined Devlin for the rest of the season, his future with the team was in doubt. Once the team signed free agent Dan Vitale, it was almost certain that Devlin would announce his retirement sooner or later. James Devlin was an underrated part of the Pats’ success in the 2010s, where he proved to be a reliable lead blocker, bolstering the effectiveness of New England’s run game. His absence for most of 2019 was palpable as the team consistently struggled establishing a run game, and the Patriots have a tall task of finding an effective replacement for him.
K Stephen Gostkowski, Released: Gostkowski’s departure represented another long-time Patriot staple leaving the team, although the Patriots had started to live without him as his season ended very early due to an injury that required surgery. The Patriots missed Gostkowski’s leg last year, as the team could not reliably score field goals longer than 40 yards, causing the offense to attempt 4th down conversions deep into enemy territory.
LB Kyle Van Noy, FA, Dolphins: One of Belichick’s greatest successes in terms of correctly utilizing players that were previously viewed as ‘busts’ because their coaches could not use them correctly. Van Noy was acquired from the Lions for a measly swap of 6th and 7th picks midway through the 2016 season. Throughout his tenure with the Patriots, especially within the last two seasons, Van Noy became a staple piece in the team’s LB corps with his versatility and great fundamentals. Van Noy now joins his former LB coach Brian Flores in Miami, who will likely maximize Van Noy’s potential.
LB Elendon Roberts, FA, Miami: Elandon Roberts joined his teammate Van Noy in joining Miami to be coached under Brian Flores. Roberts was promoted to captain for his final season in New England, and primarily played most of his defensive snaps as a run-defending thumping linebacker. Roberts also filled in as an emergency FB when both Devlin and Johnson were injured, and played decently well for a third-string FB, I guess. Roberts represents another role that the Patriots had to fill through free agency and the draft.
LB Jamie Collins, FA, Lions: The Patriots added a familiar face in the athletic freak Jamie Collins heading into the 2019 season. Collins’ athleticism allowed him to flash in the early parts of the 2019 season, when he obtained a pick-six at Miami and almost blocked a Bills field goal attempt by broad jumping over the Bills’ line. Like Van Noy, Collins heads to a former Patriots defensive coach in Matt Patricia in Detroit. Unlike the Dolphins, the Lions front office did not watch the second half of the 2019 season, where Collins tended to lose discipline and become a liability in the defense, showing off some of his former issues. I highly doubt Lions fans will think Collins is worth his $10 million APY contract
DT Danny Shelton, FA, Lions: Patriots North scoops up another Patriots player, what a surprise. Going into the 2019 preseason, Shelton seemed like he might be on the outside looking in for the Patriots roster. It looked like other tackles such as Mike Pennel had the ability to replace Shelton. However, Shelton impressed and was able to earn his spot on the team. The nose tackle’s primary role throughout the season was to be a run defender, a role he played quite well. Shelton will help add some strength to a Lions defensive front that played badly last year.
DB Duron Harmon, Traded, Lions: Duron Harmon was a long-time player at the safety position, filling in the role of the third safety while working alongside McCourty and Chung. He earned the nickname of “the closer” due to his performances at the end of matches where he would end the game through obtaining an interception. The Patriots quickly found their replacement for Harmon, most notably adding DB/ST Adrian Phillips, so there really isn’t much worry for him leaving the team.
OL Coach Dante Scarnecchia, Retirement: Arguably the greatest loss that the Patriots suffered outside of Tom Brady, the OL guru has again decided to retire. Scarnecchia is responsible for the Patriots having great offensive lines throughout his tenure and is a sometimes underrated aspect of their wild success. Unlike Scar’s previous retirement in 2014 where he was replaced by Dave DeGuglielmo, both Cole Popovich and Carmen Briscillo have experience being an understudy of Scarnecchia, which will likely help to soften the blow of his retirement. There were also rumors that Scar was still advising New England on scouting the OL position for the draft, so perhaps you can never keep this man away from this team.
Additions, Extensions, Retentions,
C David Andrews, Returning from IR: Although this technically does not fit this category, Andrews deserves to be mentioned. Even though Ted Karras played decently as he was thrust into the starting role, the Patriots felt Andrews absence, especially in the run game. Losing Andrews also likely contributed to the rest of the IOL (especially Mason, who played a lot of the season with a foot injury) not performing as well as they could have. Andrews' return will improve Jarrett Stidham’s performance, both through his protection as well as increasing the effectiveness of the Patriots’ rushing attack.
OG Joe Thuney, Franchise Tag: Bringing back Thuney was a wise move for the Patriots. The star left guard will be instrumental to protecting young quarterback Jarrett Stidham as well as ensuring the run game operates smoothly. Although some consider IOL to be a low-value position, Thuney will help the team acclimate to the other changes that happened around the offense. Having a solid line is an important element of building a good offense, and Thuney will ensure that the left guard position will work reliably.
DBs Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung: With Brady leaving, the Patriots found it valuable to keep long-time veterans around the team to maintain their team morale and culture while acclimating to the personnel change. McCourty has been a captain and locker room leader of the Patriots for quite some time and will be an important leader as the team adjusts to 2020. Both McCourty and Chung will feature in what should be a very strong secondary unit throughout the 2020 season.
DB/ST Adrian Phillips, FA: Boy do the Patriots love versatility special teamers! Phillips has played well as a special teamer and also played in many positions in the Chargers secondary, and will bring his veteran experience to the Patriots secondary. He will likely play in the rotation of safeties with Chung and McCourty, filling in a similar role to Harmon, who was traded the day before Phillips was signed.
DT Beau Allen, FA: The former Buccaneers DT will likely fill in as a replacement for Danny Shelton, who left the team to play for Detroit. Allen projects to play as a run-stuffing nose tackle that will ensure the Patriots can control the run.
FB Danny Vitale, FA: Vitale is an interesting signing. While he is listed as a fullback, he probably will not be a straight replacement for the retired James Devlin. Devlin primarily filled in as a lead blocker and sometimes as a rusher, but very rarely was used as a downfield threat. Vitale has some decent athleticism and pass-catching experience that the Patriots will likely utilize. His versatility may mean the Patriots move him around a lot instead of just using him as a lead blocker, though he has decent experience at that position as well.
LB Brandon Copeland, FA: Copeland was a signing the Patriots made to help account for the losses they had in free agency. The veteran LB recently played for the division rival Jets, where he primarily performed off the ball under Gregg Williams. Copeland brings some versatility and leadership as he has had to adapt from playing from the defensive line to off the ball.
WRs Marqise Lee and Dameire Byrd, FA: Byrd’s main attribute is straight-line speed, though he really has never been able to convert it into a high amount of production, in part due to injuries. Perhaps it’s because Dorsett was on this team for three straight years, but I am not going to bet on Byrd producing just because he has speed. Lee is much more interesting, as he was able to produce solidly during 2016-17. However, Lee has not performed nearly at all in the last two years because of injuries. If Lee can return to his pre-injury form, (though not very likely), he could carve out a pretty decent role on this New England roster.
The Draft:
2.37 Kyle Dugger, DB, Lenoir-Rhyne:
It wasn’t a surprise to many Patriots fans that the team elected to trade out of their first round pick, though some that held up hope the Patriots would make a selection might have been disappointed. Many fans wondered where the team would go with their first pick, and when it was announced that the team chose a DB from a division II school, people were initially exasperated.
Belichick’s record with 2nd round defensive backs is quite well known such that it has become a meme within the fanbase and around the NFL. His main success with the position in the second round was with Patrick Chung, and even he wasn’t very successful until his second stint. Obviously, we can’t declare a player a success or failure just because of prior trends or draft position and instead should look at the player himself if we are to make a judgement upon him.
Coming out of high school, Dugger only received offers from DII schools because he was very undersized. As he eventually grew into his frame in Lenoir-Rhyne, he elected to commit to the school that recruited him. Dugger is a hard-hitting player who most likely will transition to playing in the box as a safety for the Patriots, likely eventually taking over for aging veteran Patrick Chung.
What separates Dugger from many other defensive backs the Patriots have selected over the recent years is his athleticism. Dugger running a 4.49s 40, jumping 42 inches in the vertical jump and 134 in the broad jump while being 6’1” and 217 pounds presents a mixture of speed, size, and athleticism that is rare for a safety. The main aspect of his game that the Patriots need to work on is his transition to playing against NFL-level competition. Generally, the jump from a DI school to the NFL is quite large, the difference from DII to the NFL is even larger. It will likely take a year or two for Dugger to be ready to be a significant contributor on the defense as he adjusts to his new system. Adapting to these circumstances, the Patriots have ensured that Dugger will not have a lot of pressure to perform on defense early on through extending Chung and signing Phillips. Interestingly, Dugger’s coaching throughout his years at Lenoir-Rhyne has been inconsistent, he had to play under three different coordinators during his four years at the school. Hopefully with some great coaching and system stability with Bill and Steve Belichick Dugger can carve out his role as a future player in the secondary.
Perhaps to the disappointment of some Patriots fans, Dugger’s contributions early in his career will most likely be on special teams. Dugger had experience being a returner in college, and I would not be surprised if that becomes his primary role early on in his tenure. Dugger’s athletic ability gives him the potential to become a future star on the team if he can adapt to the NFL. Only time will tell whether he works out or becomes another player too add to the list of failed second round picks.
2.60 Josh Uche, OLB, Michigan:
Patriots Director of Player Personnel Nick Caserio remarked that prior to day two, the Patriots had three players they had a priority on acquiring: Dugger was one of them, and Uche was the other that the Patriots were able to draft with their selections.
Like Dugger, Uche is an explosive athlete with great speed as well as motor. Due to enduring an injury in the senior bowl, he was unable to participate in the combine. However, his athleticism shows up on film. Uche is a very versatile player, being able to play both on the line as well as off the ball and his efforts got him named the most versatile player by PFF in their 2020 draft guide. Michigan DC Don Brown said that he put Uche in nearly every position on the defense. I am sure Belichick was quite happy when he saw the 245 pound linebacker in coverage downfield against Penn State WR KJ Hamler. Amongst his versatility, his pass rush ability is what truly stands out. His 23.2% pressure rate and 28.2% pass rush win rate were second in both categories in the FBS. Uche achieved these great statistics through his incredible getoff off the line as well as good hand placement combined with his fantastic athleticism. Don Brown stated that Uche’s primary motivation was to become the best pass rusher in the country, and the dedication and work that Uche put in to be amongst the best in the country showed throughout the 2019 season. The primary aspect of Uche’s game that he needs to solidify in order to increase his role on the Patriots is increasing consistency with run defense.
Uche marked the first of five consecutive selections the Patriots made that addressed pressing needs. Considering the amount of LB talent that left over the offseason, it is possible that Uche will see a decent amount of playing time on the defense, perhaps in a similar role to former Wolverine Chase Winovich, whom Uche now rejoins in New England. I see Uche likely being the second-most impactful rookie to play for the Patriots this season, helping to strengthen the team’s pass rush, resulting in a more effective pass defense overall.
3.87 Anfernee Jennings, OLB, Alabama:
Jennings’ selection serves as a nice complement to Uche’s. While Uche is this very athletic and undersized linebacker, Jennings better fits into the traditional, big, physical type of linebacker. Coming from Alabama, Jennings offers great fundamentals and football IQ that come from developing under Alabama Head Coach Nick Saban. While he may not be the most athletic or flashy player, Jennings will likely cement his role in the Patriots defense as a solid and reliable player, especially against the run. Jennings registered great production during his time at Alabama, leading edge defenders in FBS for run-stop rate at 12.6%. The Alabama product has often been compared to former Patriots LB Kyle Van Noy due to his ability to be a versatile piece across the line.
Jennings is a very persevering player as well. In 2018 he suffered a worrying knee injury. Fortunately, the injury did not prevent him from returning to the field, but Jenninngs had to put in a lot of effort in order to return to his previous form. Saban also complimented Jennings’s dedication to improving himself in practice sessions. Jennings likely projects as an edge defender who will play very well against the run while also sometimes dropping into coverage. Jennings will likely see a fair amount of action as a rookie, especially on rushing downs. While he may not have a high ceiling, Jennings will likely be an anchor of the Pats’ defense as he progresses through his contract.
3.91 Devin Asiasi, TE, UCLA:
On the offense, New England desperately needed to do something with their TE situation. Matt Lacosse may be a replacement level backup, but Ryan Izzo is not an NFL-caliber player. With very little cap space to address the position in free agency, the Patriots looked to the draft to fill their TE position. By selecting Asiasi in the third round, it is the first time the Patriots have spent a day two or higher pick on a tight end since 2010, when they selected Gronkowski.
Asiasi will likely become the Patriots number 1 option at the position. When looking at Bill Belichick’s 1991 scouting notes shared by Daniel Jeremiah, NBC analyst Phil Perry noted that Asiasi seems to fit the bill for the number one role. Devin Asiasi displayed great catching ability throughout his year starting at UCLA, only having one drop throughout the entire year. Asiasi also demonstrated great ability to run after the catch, averaging 5.6 yards in this category. Another ability that Asiasi brings as a TE that the Patriots sorely missed in 2019 is blocking. Even if Asiasi won’t perform as a great blocker (which is best reserved for #2 or #3 TEs anyway), it will most likely be better than the awfulness that was Patriot tight end blocking last year.
Asiasi was suspended for three games in the 2018 season for undisclosed reasons by Chip Kelly. However, Bill Belichick and the Patriots are on good terms with UCLA head coach Chip Kelly, meaning that they were able to confer with Kelly and confirm that Asiasi would be a good fit with the team and his suspensions were nothing to.worry about. Asiasi also possesses high football intelligence, being able to run complex concepts such as option routes in Kelly’s TE heavy offense. Even though Asiasi is undersized for what people normally think of a #1 TE , only being 6’3” and 257 lbs., his athletic ability and smooth movement should translate well into the NFL. Although Asiasi will likely be the starting Y-Tight End for the Patriots offense, I would not bet on him to break the trend of rookie TEs having low production, though Asiasi will definitely contribute in blocking.
3.101 Dalton Keene, TE, Virginia Tech:
The Patriots also repeated something that they did 10 years ago, which was taking two tight ends in the draft. Dalton Keene is an interesting prospect to project for the Patriots. His playstyle resembles that of an F or move tight end. Even Belichick admitted after drafting Keene that they would have work to do in terms of finding him a role on this team, since the role that Keene played in the Virginia Tech offense is nothing like anything the Patriots run in their offense.
If Keene seems to be such a confusing fit for the Patriots, then what made the team trade back up into the third round in order to select him. The most defining feature that Keene exhibits through his play is toughness. He is a very dedicated and ruthless player, oftentimes toughing it out through injury and not playing with high regard to his health while on the field. The aggressiveness that Keene displayed both during practice and games caused his teammates to give him the nickname of “Rambo”. Keene’s offensive coordinator Brad Cornelsen called him the toughest player he has ever seen. Keene has never produced that much in the receiving game, only racking up 341 yards in his most productive receiving season. Perhaps given his athletic talent it suggests that Virginia Tech underutilized his ability in the passing game, instead placing more focus upon his ability in the run game instead. Keene will be a versatile player and likely fill multiple roles as the Patriots’ second tight end, primarily being used as that F tight end, move tight end, or perhaps H-back. He may in fact share similar duties to FB Danny Vitale. I would be more than happy if Keene and Asiasi can combine for about 600-700 receiving yards and a few touchdowns in their rookie year.
5.159 Justin Rohrwasser, K, Marshall:
Another need that the Patriots needed to fill during the draft or free agency was the kicker position. Many people expected the Patriots to take someone like Georgia kicker Rodrigo Blankenship, Georgia Southern kicker Tyler Bass, or Chase Vinatieri from South Dakota. When the Patriots selected Rohrwasser, a kicker who was so unknown that he didn’t even have a profile on the NFL’s website many people were confused.
What caused the Patriots to select this unknown kicker from Marshall. Rohrwasser displayed great performance throughout the 2019 season, having a statistically better season compared to the other higher profile kickers in the draft. Rohrwasser made 18 of 21 field goals and 35 of 36 XPs. He was perfect on kicks greater than 50 yards out, even hitting a clutch field goal from 53 yards against Western Kentucky after being iced twice. Belichickj stated that the Patriots have watched over 250 kicks and were impressed by his ability to kick in clutch situations as well as poor conditions, something Rohrwasser will have to do often in the AFC East. It is unclear whether Rohrwasser will relieve punter Jake Bailey of his kickoff duties (thought I think it’s more likely than not). If there is any position I trust Bill to evaluate, it’ s the placekicker. Rohrwasser will likely be the most impactful rookie on the patriots, mainly because he is the only surefire starter out of all of them. If Rohrwasser succeeds, the Patriots will be able to not go for fourth downs deep in enemy territory again and have a good kicker on a cheap rookie deal.
6.182 Michael Onwenu, OG, Michigan:
After addressing many immediate needs, the Patriots decided to take some shots at reserve linemen. Considering what happened in 2019, it is smart for the Patriots to add some young talent to the Offensive Line in order to account for things not going according to plan.
The first thing that strikes people when they look at Onwenu is his size. This man is HUGE, especially for an interior lineman. Coming in at 6’3”, around 350 lbs (he actually weighed closer to 370 during the season at college), Onwenu is a very physically imposing presence. He is very good at doing his job of not letting defenders get by him. During his past two years at Michigan, Onwenu played 1198 snaps, Onwenu only allowed 13 pressures and 2 sacks. He plays with great power and if he is able to get his hands on the defender, then it is over. Onwenu also possesses decent movement ability for his size; he will be able to perhaps do downfield blocking a bit better than people expect him to. Also, according to Michigan’s OL coach Ed Warriner, Onenwu really doesn’t have the ability to go much lower than 345 lbs.
Onenwu will start out on the team as a backup in the iOL, though more likely in his natural position of RG. Onenwu is quite different compared to New England’s other iOLs, he is 50 pounds heavier than the rest of our starting interiors. It will be interesting to see how Onwenu is able to execute the Patriots’ offensive scheme considering how physically different he is compared to Thuney, Andrews, and Mason. Either way, Onenwu will be a reliable depth piece that can protect Stidham if any of the starters go down.
6.195 Justin Herron, OG/OT, Wake Forest:
The second lineman that the Patriots invested draft capital in was Justin Herron. Herron started 51 games for Wake Forest, exclusively at the LT position. Herron’s experience at the position will likely slot him in as the primary backup to Isaiah Wynn, who has spent a lot of time of his career injured. Herron did suffer an ACL tear in the first week of the 2018 season, but rebounded quite well in 2019. Herron, like Onwenu, is a great pass-blocker. In 2017, the season prior to tearing his ACL, Herron allowed zero sacks. In 2019, when he recovered from his ACL injury, he only allowed four sacks and 13 pressures.
Some analysts raise questions about Herron playing tackle at the next level, instead projecting him as a guard. Interestingly, analysts made similar remarks about now-starting LT Isaiah Wynn. Considering that he only played left tackle during his time in college, I think the Patriots evaluated him and will use him as a tackle. If New England wanted an interior lineman, they likely would have selected someone else. Another concern that some have about Herron is his athleticism, which showed up at the combine, especially in his 8.41s three-cone drill. Scarnecchia often said the Patriots don’t care too much about athleticism in the OL, saying that they only needed to be athletic-enough. If the Patriots were that concerned about his athletic ability, he likely wouldn’t have been selected. Even so, it’s a great idea to grab a tackle who played solidly in college and will spend most of his rookie deal as a reserve player. This pick will be a success if Herron makes the team and can competently back up Wynn if he finds himself injured again.
6.204 Cassh Maluia, LB, Wyoming:
In the midst of the Patriots grabbing multiple offensive lineman, the Patriots selected another linebacker to increase their depth. During the 2019 season, Maluia went relatively under the radar due to his fellow linebacker and 65th overall pick Logan Wilson. However, those who studied Wilson likely saw Maluia pop out on a few occasions and make great plays. Maluia is an athletic and undersized linebacker, weighing in at only 231 lbs. His athleticism showed up both on tape and on the field, where Maluia displayed versatility across the field being able to both be a thumper as well as a decent coverage player. Maluia’s biggest concern is probably his tackling form, as his aggressiveness caused him to miss a fair amount of times. If Maluia makes the 53 man, he will likely contribute mostly as a special teams player, though his athletic ability might allow him to play a few snaps at defense.
7.230 David Woodard, C, Memphis:
With their final selection in the 2020 NFL draft, the Patriots threw a dart at another reserve lineman. Woodard played all across his the iOL throughout his college career, displaying the versatility that is desired in a backup lineman. Woodard does not have athletic testing available, though some analysts expressed concern about his athletic ability and his size, as Woodard only weighs 291 lbs. As detailed earlier, the Patriots generally concern themself more with technique than pure size and athleticism, and Woodard displays great technique. He graded out as the best run-blocking and second best pass-blocking center in 2019 through PFFs metrics. The Patriots will likely have to still improve Woodard’s technique to make him a future part of the team. Woodard projects as a reserve interior guy, particularly backing up C David Andrews if he makes the team.
UDFAs
Considering that a UDFA has made the New England roster for 16 straight years, I think it is appropriate to talk about some of the more interesting prospects in short. These are not all of the FAs the Patriots signed but some that I think are the most interesting and have the greatest chance to make the team.
For the QB position, the Patriots signed Michigan State QB Brian Lewerke and Louisiana Tech QB J’Mar Smith. Lewerke initially showed promise but a shoulder injury he suffered in 2018 really derailed his career. Smith is more interesting, as he displayed his athleticism throughout his career, as well as possessing great arm strength and ability to make flash off-platform throws. He was suspended for a game, but in his 11 starts he went 10-1 and won C-USA offensive player of the year. Neither QB really poses much threat to Stidham, but if one of them shows promise (especially Smith, who reportedly had a few offers from other teams), don’t be surprised if Belichick makes space for them on the 53 man roster.
For the WR position, which many people were surprised the Patriots did not take a shot at in the draft, the most interesting players are Auburn WR Will Hastings and Miami WR Jeff Thomas. Hastings was Stidham’s former slot receiver in college, racking up 26 receptions and 525 yards with the QB in 2017. Hastings tore his ACL prior to 2018, and Stidham missed his reliable option during the season. Hastings ran a 4.49s 40 and a blistering 6.64s 3-cone during his pro-day. Hasting’s connection with Stidham may allow for him to sneak onto the team. Thomas, on the other hand, mostly specialized as a deep threat for the Hurricanes. Even though he is undersized at 5’9 and 170 lbs, many scouts said he displayed draftable talent throughout his career. The aspect of Thomas that was more influential in making him a UDFA is his character concerns. Thomas has had an issue with nearly every coaching staff that he has interacted with, and got kicked off the 2018 team for attitude issues. If Thomas can pull himself together and realize that there are no more chances, he could transform into a future weapon for the Patriots.
Arizona RB J.J. Taylor is another interesting pickup for the Patriots. He is very short, coming in at only 5’5” tall (never in my life did I think I would be taller than a Pats player), but still manages to pack 185 lbs. Despite his size, Taylor is quite talented, displaying some decent shiftiness as well as the ability to bounce through contact. Perhaps because of his size and elusive playstyle, he has drawn comparisons to former Patriots RB Dion Lewis. If Taylor can show enough ability throughout the offseason, he might be able to get the Patriots to replace a RB, primarily Rex Burkhead, who many Pats fans theorize the team will cut for a few years now.
Ohio State TE Rashod Berry is another interesting player the Patriots picked up. He reportedly may change his position to OLB. Berry had some experience playing defense for Ohio State early in his career, though he did some snaps along the defense for a few games in his senior year. Many Ohio State fans say that Berry is a very athletic player who was underutilized by the Ohio State system. Wherever he plays, it will be interesting to see how his skill translates to the next level.
On the defensive side of the ball the Patriots were able to sign Auburn EDGE Nick Coe after negotiations between him and the Bills fell through. Coe was one of the top ranked free agents after the draft talent-wise, as he produced well in his first few seasons at Auburn. He is a much more prototypical big edge player the Patriots generally use in their system, but also has the versatility to play off the ball. However, Coe seems happiest playing as an edge rusher off the line. Coe’s main issue is his off-the field issues, where he feuded with his coaching staff over his assignments on the team, and also did not put in as much effort as a result. Coe is a very high-potential signing, but he will have to accept whatever role New England gives him if he wants to succeed.
The signing that gave the most guaranteed money went to Arkansas LB De’Jon Harris. Harris primarily plays as a thumping linebacker, which will likely be his role if he manages the Patriots. He has been theorized to fill a similar role to Elandon Roberts did last year (though likely not as a FB on offense). As a thumper, Harris’ best ability is tracking down and meeting the ball carrier, except he does suffer from some tackling issues.
The Patriots somehow managed to convince Bill Murray to join the team, where he will slot in on the defensive line. The DT from William & Mary displays good ability to be disruptive along the defensive line, though keep in mind that this was against FCS competition. Murray also managed to block 10 kicks during his tenure, something that Belichick is surely proud of. He reportedly is also a guy who is great at making his teammates laugh, perhaps like his celebrity counterpart. Considering that DL is a weaker position on the Patriots, Murray has a real shot to get on the team with his talent.
If I am going to talk about UDFAs that have a great chance of making the team, I am not going to overlook the secondary. The DB that the patriots signed this year was Washington’s Myles Bryant. Bryant is another undersized player, only coming at 5’8” and 183 lbs.. and primarily played free safety in 2019 after playing slot corner for the previous two years. Bryant showed good short-area quickness on the field as well as in athletic testing, running a 6.81s 3-cone. His greatest weakness is tackling, likely worsened by his small size. Bryant will need to improve his tackling if he wants to make the team. I also wanted to shout out 2019 UDFA UNM DB D’Angelo Ross, another undersized corner that showed some promise in the preseason prior to suffering a season-ending injury. I still don’t fully understand why Belichick spends so many premier picks on DBs when he can just pull great ones out of his rear nearly every year in the UDFA market.
Roster Projection:
Projecting the Patriots roster is especially difficult due to the amount of bodies at many positions such as OL, LB, and DB. This problem is exacerbated by the fact I haven’t seen anyone play yet or have the most recent updates on everyone’s health. I am not confident that this roster will be that accurate to the final roster that appears week 1.
QB (2) - Jarrett Stidham, Brian Hoyer
RB (5) - Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead, Brandon Bolden, Damien Harris
FB (1) - Dan Vitale
WR (7) - N’Keal Harry, Mohammed Sanu, Julian Edelman, Marqise Lee, Jakobi Meyers, Matt Slater, Jeff Thomas
TE (2) - Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene
OL (9) - Isaiah Wynn, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Marcus Cannon, Yodny Cajuste, Justin Herron, Hjalte Froholdt, Michael Onwenu
DL (4) - Adam Butler, Beau Allen, Lawrence Guy, Byron Cowart
EDGE/LB (9) - Deatrich Wise, Chase Winovich, John Simon, Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings, Dont’a Hightower, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Cassh Maluia, Brandon King
CB (6) - Stephon Gilmore, Joejuan Williams, Jason McCourty, J.C. Jackson, Jonathan Jones, Justin Bethel,
S (5) - Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger, Terrence Brooks
K - Justin Rohrwasser
P - Jake Bailey
LS - Joe Cardona
KR and PR - Dugger
Conclusion?
The Patriots enter a time of uncertainty that hasn’t existed in my lifetime. This 2020 squad is very hard to predict because of all the unknowns that exist all over the team, most notably at QB. It is possible that the Patriots perform better on the offense this year due to the sheer amount of players that are now healthy, especially alongside the offensive line. Although it is most likely the Patriots will not be a contender this year, depending on how well Stidham and the rest of the offense perform and develop, the team could bring itself into contention as early as 2021. I anxiously, but optimistically, await this team’s future.
submitted by Woodennickel20 to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]

Effortpost: The Case for Doing Climate First

Terms
"Doing" - Spending at least 10 minutes talking about it at the SOTU. Attempting to vote on it in the House and Senate. Negotiating and writing an actual bill.
"Climate" - I'm being intentionally vague here, but I'll call it any bill which has a key section that reduces carbon emissions. That includes a Green New Deal, Carbon Pricing, R&D for clean energy, or all three combined. Whatever can get passed. (psssst... it's not the green new deal)
"First" - Given coronavirus and the associated economic struggles, it is very likely that the Democrats first bill won't have to do with healthcare, climate, the minimum wage, immigration, democracy, or any of that. I'm not against that. But once we do get to pass some parts of the Democratic agenda, I think the first part should be climate.
Why am I answering this question?
I'll start by disagreeing with myself. This will only have relevance if the Democrats win the House, Senate, and President. And while that could happen, it would probably be smarter to focus more on a more likely result of the 2020 election - Democratic House, Republican Senate, and Joe Biden President - and think about what executive orders Joe Biden would pass.
Another, in my opinion stronger, argument against answering this question is that it would divide the party by making voters who want to put different issues first angry at each other.
To the first point, I'd first point out that there is at least a decent chance of Democrats securing a trifecta. Current betting markets have the chance of winning the House, Senate, and Presidency at 73.7%, 42.3%, and 46.8% respectively.
To the second, I'd say that this discourse is going to happen no matter what, it's just a matter of when. It would be much better for this discourse to happen in April, 2020 then in February, 2021 when we're going to be searching for votes and time is tight.
But there's more than that. By defining what Democrats want the 2020-2022 term in a no-bullshit way, they'll avoid the trap of looking like "not-trump" to voters, and risking a repeat of 2016, where plenty disapproved of Trump, but not enough approved of Hillary. And by no-bullshit, I mean recognizing that there's going to have to be policy prioritization. We can't pass both a voting rights bill, a $15 minimum wage, universal healthcare, and a climate bill, even if the Senate really breaks our way and we get 51 or 52 seats. Time and political capital just doesn't work that way.
Could we even get Climate done with 50/51 Democrats?
What's the point of putting Climate first if it would be impossible to get done? My main reason for asking this question centers on the fact that Joe Manchin is both someone who takes dead aim at cap and trade bills in his free time and a key vote in the Senate. On the other hand, Manchin also takes dead aim at lawsuits to take away pre-existing conditions in his free time, suggesting that he is much more sympathetic to universal healthcare than he is to reducing carbon emissions. But I have a feeling that given the opportunity, Manchin would come around and vote for the climate. Manchin talked favorably about investing in clean energy R&D in a recent op-ed, his press release after voting against McConnell's Green New Deal show vote talked favorably about reducing emissions, and his League of Conservation Voters score, which has spent the past decade in the 40s, was 86% last year. So no, I am not sure that a climate bill could pass the senate. But I'm not sure it would fail either. And besides, even if it is hard, Climate is something that we need to address in this session.
Why Climate first?
Let's start with the obvious - climate change would greatly worsen many people's lives. Even if you are lucky enough to not be in an area not impacted by flooding, droughts, heat waves, forest fires, hurricanes and other natural disasters, everyone will have to pay more for groceries when agriculture is affected, and the economic meltdown it causes will affect everyone. Not to mention the global unrest caused by the possibly over a billion climate migrants. But that's true with any problem - millions of lives and livelihoods would be saved by passing universal healthcare or a $15 minimum wage. The difference with climate is that there's a timer. And it's running out of time.
Don't worry, I'm not about to tell you that We HaVe 11 YeArS oR tHe WoRlD wIlL eXpLoDe!!! But, if you're into that sort of thing, here's some scary stuff.
According to the IPCC, in order for the world to stay below 1.5° C of global warming, we need to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, and reduce our emissions by 50% by 2030. There is no way that's happening if Democrats don't pass a climate bill in the 2021-2022 session, so it has to be the top priority. Simply put, there is no world where there is both no climate bill by 2022 and no climate catastrophe. Those are the stakes.
The current pace of US politics is that each party gets to pass one bill every 10 years or so. There isn't a 100% chance that Democrats would only be able to pass one bill if they had the trifecta, but lets pretend that's the case for a minute. The difference between universal healthcare being passed in 2031 as opposed to 2021 is that for 10 years, there will be millions of people who don't have health insurance that should. The difference between a climate bill being passed in 2031 as opposed to 2021 is that forever, humanity will have to deal with our failure. This century's great challenge will be climate change - and it gets harder and harder to deal with as time goes on.
Joe Biden has a very long agenda stocked with policies that will improve lives. But there is only one with a timer - climate - and that one must be the top priority.


First effortpost, treat me kindly please :)
submitted by Johnnnnnnnnnnnhn to neoliberal [link] [comments]

🌈🐻 Theory on When Powell will Stop Printing Money Given the Politics of a Job at the FED

There was another redactor who posted about how the corporations become dependent upon the FED's help if it help's to long, and that if the FED stops helping, corporations can be stressed by the debt they took on that is also amplified by reduced spending relative to pre-covid. So if the FED really wanted to hurt the stock market/ economy they could, but also can't given the current administration.
The reason Powell is printing is because he has no choice, The Federal Reserve Act states that "thereafter each member shall hold office for a term of fourteen years from the expiration of the term of his predecessor, unless sooner removed for cause by the President*.”*
Powell probably hates The Big Cheeto. If Powell wants to preserve his job at the fed, his hands are tied because Trump can place the blame on him if the economy mets down, making Powell the cause. Trump is know to fire and scapegoat bureaucratic, and Trump wanted to fire Powell in 2016 for increasing interest rates, which is what you do when unemployment decreases toward 5%. Trump also almost fired our boy JPow for not printing money, buying junk bonds etc. The firing can be drawn out because of the word "cause" in the law, so if the supreme court or congress wanted to draw out the firing they could. They likely would also want want to use Powell as a scapegoat though, otherwise the Dem's/ court would look like they are in conspiring with the FED to "destroy America."
Powell has to pop the bubble at some point. He cannot print money forever if he wants to control inflation. If he does it to soon, Trump fires him and trump has made it know he wants to fire him. If there is an economic meltdown around election time however, Trump will not have the time to draw out a firing process of JPow and there will be too much chaos. In the chaos, Powell can ride out the storm in the background. In that specific moment, when debates are happening and the emotions are high, your average person isn't going to care or want to hear about how the FED crashed the economy because it will make no sense to people who don't have some familiarity with the job. Trump will be blamed, and everyone will turn on him. All of this means that Powell could strike a deal with the Dems where his job is secured when they inevitably win, since he made that happen
If you gay bears where gonna bet on a time the economy crashes, I would by puts/shorts for non tech companies that expire sometime in SeptembeOctober since the election in is November. I would also do DD on companies that have a low earnings to debt ratio, and short/put those specifically. I can't though because I have no money LMAO, daddy Powell bent me over.
🌈🐻 gang

Edit: this NY times article is good news for bears. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/business/corporate-bankruptcy-coronavirus.html
If you don't have a subscription, it was written June 18 2020 and the most important part is:
"Edward I. Altman, the creator of the Z score, a widely used method of predicting business failures, estimated that this year will easily set a record for so-called mega bankruptcies — filings by companies with $1 billion or more in debt. And he expects the number of merely large bankruptcies — at least $100 million — to challenge the record set the year after the 2008 economic crisis.
Even a meaningful rebound in economic activity over the coming months won’t stop it, said Mr. Altman, the Max L. Heine professor of finance, emeritus, at New York University’s Stern School of Business. “The really hurting companies are too far gone to be saved,” he said."

TLDR: JPow is gonna backstab Trump soon, stop supporting dead companies, and bankruptcy is coming.
submitted by Nick6897 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

June 17, 2020 - Market Analysis

Hello everyone,
You can read my thoughts during the day here.
And before I get into the day, a lot of people ask me when should I buy/sell a particular stock. I will say, although TA can give you some idea short term when to enter and exit, it is not for everyone and each of you should have your own game plan and strategy for investing/trading.
If any are interested in getting a paid subscription for tradingview than you can use my link: https://www.tradingview.com/gopro/?share_your_love=dannymannyboy.
Markets
Chart Perspective – As I covered in my daily comments, it was a nothing sideways day. Bears are scared to make a push down because of the FEDS, bulls are scared to keep pushing as we are near ATH territory and next round of financials are creeping up + bears showed they can make a push if needed. Even at the end of the day today we broke to a new LOD and it got bought up. Inside candle where you play the high and low of the previous day as short-term direction.
Investor Perspective – Short term bears are scared for FED pumps so I would say bulls have momentum but financials + election has me looking bear mid to long term.
Energy and Oil Companies - MEG Energy Corp, Crescent Point Energy, Cenovus Energy, CDN Natural Resources, Suncor Energy, Enbridge, Teck Resources Limited, Husky Energy, Vermillion
Chart Perspective – The majority of companies in these sectors have a similar chart which looks like this. REITS look the same and so do banks. For all of these the play is simple – watch the 5 day range and see what way it breaks. If that sounds obvious it’s because it is. For someone who uses TA, there is zero point in trying to guess which way it will break, you just play the break when it comes. So, if I was looking at these companies, if we break bullish there is 13%-15% upside until next resistance. If we break bearish there is about 11% - 12% downside until next supports.
Investor Perspective – So, for investor perspective I want to start looking at weekly trends because the argument I always see is, it is still x% lower than where we were in February. So looking at the weekly trends, a lot of these oil/energy names were in long term downtrends. Vermillion since 2016; CPG since 2014; even your high dividend Enbridge was sideways at best. So that should make you think longer term, maybe we aren’t going back up to what we were before since we were in downtrends to begin with.
Gold Miners - Kirkland Lake Gold, Kinross Gold, Barrick Gold, Eldorado Gold, IAMGOLD, B2Gold, Yamana Gold, OceanGold.
Chart Perspective - The day itself was whatever. Inside bars, green but nothing substantial. These ranges are miners are getting tight. We have basically two weeks worth of sideways action (sideways being a very loose term for 10% - 15%). I say sideways with that range because a 2 day chart looks like this after such volatile up and downs. Like most of these names that have settled into a sideways channel, play the range and the break. I’d say 15% downside and maybe 5% - 10% upside on breaks.
Investor Perspective – The weekly trends were okay leading to the crash. We had a bump in 2016, followed by downward movement but was heading back up and we are obviously higher now then we were as people flock to gold as safety in case there is another market crash.
Marijuana Stocks - Canopy, Aphria, Aurora, HEXO, Organigram. Cronos, and some US MSO’s.
Chart Perspective – And after the weird bump yesterday on Canopy, it’s giving it back and keeping it in its tight range. I mentioned a couple weeks of sideways on other names but Canopy is now 14 days sideways after financials fall.
Investor Perspective – So this weekly chart is why I am playing canopy long term over a name like Aphria or Aurora.
Banks - BMO, RBC, Scotiabank, CIBC, Manulife, TD
Chart Perspective – Same set up as energy/oil and REITS. Just like I have mentioned for last week. Play the range, if we break there is 3% to 7% downside before next support versus 2%-3% upside before next resistance.
Investor Perspective – You ride banks for their safety and dividends and that’s why the charts mostly look like this sideways since you get paid dividends.
REITS - Brookfield, Smartcentres, Riocan, HR Real Estate
Chart Perspective – Same 5 day triangle like set up we have seen before today. Bear break looking at 3.5% downside before next support and bull break at…a wide range depending on the name. Anywhere from 3.5% (HR), 6.5% (REI), 13% (BPY).
Tech - SHOP, Lightspeed, Real. OpenText, Kinaxis
Chart Perspective – Is this our next round of pushes to ATH or are we going to sell off soon? REAL looks like it hit an ATH but had some profit taking. Kinaxis set one yesterday but did not retest today. SHOP within 8%. After holding sideways for a couple weeks it looks like money has reentered as profit is being taken in other sectors.
Investor Perspective – Yeah this is basically what tech looks like over past 10 years. People riding this sector to ATH. With automation and new tech continuing to rule the world, I don’t know how you bet against tech long term.
Air Canada
Chart – Similar set up but weaker. 8% to support on bear break, 18% to resistance on bull break. \
Investor – So this is why I believe AC is always going to have people buying the dip. They see this chart and say people need planes to get to other countries. I believe that will help AC be propped up to a certain extent for a while. Now, if they have to get financing, that will be a different story.
Retail - Canadian Tire, Lululemon, Aritzia, Canada Goose, Loblaws
Chart – Nothing sideways days. I did go back and cover them at like 8pm last night in yesterday’s write up. Depending on the name the % varies but there seems to be way more downside (15%) than upside on breaks. Chalk it up to a run that happened when economies were re-opening.
Investor – This is why it’s tough to group different retail together. CTC weekly, Aritzia weekly, Goose weekly. It is very dependent on the company unlike banks which there is some slight variation but they generally move together and % wise as one.
submitted by TikiB to TBmarketanalysis [link] [comments]

Republicans need to face facts: Joe Biden could win

Before you call me a liberal, hear me out: I’m an ardent Trump supporter who is 100% going to vote for the President in November, think of this more as a wake up call: the election is 50-50, and unless Republicans wake up, it’s Biden’s to loose.
Everywhere I go I hear "Trump’s going to win in a landslide”. Republicans in general throw it in the faces of Democrats all the time, touting a victory in an election that has yet to happen. Jokes about Trump winning in a Reagan-esc landslide fill the air, never mind the fact that something like that is mathematically impossible (try winning states like California, Massachusetts, Hawaii, etc. in this day-in-age).
Even non Republicans agree. Polls find anywhere between 55-57% of Americans believe Donald Trump will win re-election regardless of who they are voting for. The betting markets consistently rate Trump as the favorite to win in 2020.
Sound familiar? These are what everyone said about Hillary Clinton in 2016. Believing Trump will win in 2020 is not a sure fire bet at all.
For starters, America is in the middle of a pandemic and on the verge of a recession. Not great signs for an incumbent President. Additionally, the electoral map looks harder for Trump. Not only is Biden ahead in the three crucial Midwestern states required for a Trump victory, but traditionally red states like Arizona, Florida and North Carolina could hang in the balance as well. Some predict the popular vote is a lock for Biden, and while that means nothing, it does mean a Trump victory would be historically unusual, as Trump Even Corey Lewandowski warned Trump that his own internal polling looks weak there.
I think Trump’s biggest problem however is messaging. He’s got to find something to pin on Biden. You may be thinking “that’s easy. Trump’s got so much to run on in that field.” True. However, in 2020, the pandemic is THE issue of the campaign. Biden will try to make the race a referendum on Trump’s response, and that will energize Democrats to vote against Trump. Tara Reade, "You Ain’t Black", or Hunter Biden simply won’t have the same affect on voters. The pandemic is in their faces.
One of the biggest arguments against a Biden victory is that he’s the next Hillary Clinton, and therefore, he’s bound to loose because he has the same ideas as Hillary Clinton. However, there problems with that. For starters, Hillary Clinton was hated her entire political career, Biden isn’t. Democrats faced party fatigue from Obama being in office for 8 years, Biden won’t. Trump was able to make the race about Clinton, he can’t do the same with Biden. Hillary Clinton was more socially liberal, alienating older voters, Biden isn’t. Some say Biden’s gaffes are a problem, but they aren’t going to affect the way people already think of him. Some argue Trump’s base is more energized, but Democrats will vote based on hatred of Trump.
Now, that’s not to say all hope is lost, Trump still has a fighting chance. Biden is the safe, moderate, candidate, but that didn’t help John Kerry or Al Gore. Enthusiasm surrounding Biden as a candidate is very low. Also, history favors the incumbent. Surely if the election is a test of both candidate’s strengths and weaknesses, Trump will win.
Here’s my advice to Trump: run on economic trust. Make the point that the economy was booming for three years under your presidency, only to be disrupted by a virus you had no control over. Furthermore, make the point that Biden is unfit to lead in crisis because of his age and mental issues. Have an ad showing multiple clips of Biden stumbling over his words and not being able to finish sentences. Then end the ad with a text slide saying something to the effect of “Is this man really fit to lead the country through crisis?” Americans tend to not want to ditch their leaders through crisis, and making the point that Biden doesn’t have the mental capacity to lead in a time of crisis will convince undecided voters that regardless of how they view the President, he’s more capable of leading the nation through crisis.
Again, I’m not saying Trump won’t win, but don’t take him for granted.
submitted by spidermandied to tucker_carlson [link] [comments]

How are you planning to deal with the volatility in the stock market due to the US presidential election? from r/stocks at Thu Jul 2 10:25:13 2020

tl;dr:

No matter who wins the election, there are perceived downsides to the stock markets either way. A Trump victory might lead to renewed protests and more severe riots. A Biden victory will mean cooperate tax rates going back up and uncertainty about how Trump will react to the loss. How are you planning for these possible scenarios? Are you going into cash/bonds/gold? Are you betting on one specific scenario? VIX Futures?

Preamble:

I understand that the market is currently still occupied with COVID-19 and that the outcome of the pandemic will set the tone for the election and the market in November. Speculating on the impact of the presidential election right now might therefor be considered preemptive.
If the election has little impact on the market, then the end (or perceived end) of the pandemic would be the right time to be fully invested in the stock market again. If, however the election is going to cause more volatility in the market, then I might want to wait it out or look for buying opportunities after the election.

The 2019 UK Election:

I want to briefly bring this up because it highlights how markets react to expectation and certainty. British financial markets dreaded the prospect of a hard Brexit which is very much on the table with a victory by Boris Johnson. Nonetheless when it became clear that Johnson would be heading for a landslide victory, the markets reacted positively. This was because the only thing worrying the markets more than a hard Brexit, was uncertainty and the possibility of a hung parliament.

Biden Victory:

Biden is an establishment candidate and brings with him more certainty than Trump. On the other hand, Biden has made it pretty clear that he plans on taking back many of the Trump tax cuts. If polls leading up to the election project a Biden victory, then the drop in stock valuation might be gradually priced in by the time of the actual election.
The other thing to consider with a Biden victory is how Trump and Trump supporters might react.

Trump Victory:

In a similar note with a Trump victory, the possibility of further unrest and riots should be considered. The magnitude and effect on the stock market of this unrest might be minimal if a Trump victory is projected and expected all around. Given recent polls a Trump victory would however seem like another upset similar to 2016, leaving the markets to react to an unexpected result.

Conclusions:

How do you deal with the possibility of such volatility? Is it best to just withdraw from the market and wait out the whole pandemic and election related volatility? Is there a good way to benefit from possible volatility?
submitted by Awareness-Infinite to College_Prestige [link] [comments]

How are you planning to deal with the volatility in the stock market due to the US presidential election? from r/stocks at Thu Jul 2 09:46:10 2020

tl;dr:

No matter who wins the election, there are perceived downsides to the stock markets either way. A Trump victory might lead to renewed protests and more severe riots. A Biden victory will mean cooperate tax rates going back up and uncertainty about how Trump will react to the loss. How are you planning for these possible scenarios? Are you going into cash/bonds/gold? Are you betting on one specific scenario? VIX Futures?

Preamble:

I understand that the market is currently still occupied with COVID-19 and that the outcome of the pandemic will set the tone for the election and the market in November. Speculating on the impact of the presidential election right now might therefor be considered preemptive.
If the election has little impact on the market, then the end (or perceived end) of the pandemic would be the right time to be fully invested in the stock market again. If, however the election is going to cause more volatility in the market, then I might want to wait it out or look for buying opportunities after the election.

The 2019 UK Election:

I want to briefly bring this up because it highlights how markets react to expectation and certainty. British financial markets dreaded the prospect of a hard Brexit which is very much on the table with a victory by Boris Johnson. Nonetheless when it became clear that Johnson would be heading for a landslide victory, the markets reacted positively. This was because the only thing worrying the markets more than a hard Brexit, was uncertainty and the possibility of a hung parliament.

Biden Victory:

Biden is an establishment candidate and brings with him more certainty than Trump. On the other hand, Biden has made it pretty clear that he plans on taking back many of the Trump tax cuts. If polls leading up to the election project a Biden victory, then the drop in stock valuation might be gradually priced in by the time of the actual election.
The other thing to consider with a Biden victory is how Trump and Trump supporters might react.

Trump Victory:

In a similar note with a Trump victory, the possibility of further unrest and riots should be considered. The magnitude and effect on the stock market of this unrest might be minimal if a Trump victory is projected and expected all around. Given recent polls a Trump victory would however seem like another upset similar to 2016, leaving the markets to react to an unexpected result.

Conclusions:

How do you deal with the possibility of such volatility? Is it best to just withdraw from the market and wait out the whole pandemic and election related volatility? Is there a good way to benefit from possible volatility?
submitted by Awareness-Infinite to College_Prestige [link] [comments]

Unusual Option Activity for June 25th, 2020 FLIR, AGNC, PDD ERI

Welcome to another daily Unusual Options Activity post. Why do DD when you can see what stocks people are heavily investing in? Read the full post at www.noeticoptions.com.
Context – The S&P 500 closed +1.1% higher today. The financial sector performed especially strong +2.7%. This gain is a rebound from yesterday’s more substantial losses. The market initially was lower due to a new daily record for CoVID-19 cases. The rebound, led by the financial sector, occurred after regulators eased restrictions on the Volcker Rule for banking institutions. Today, Texas and Florida announced a pause on their reopening plans. CDC officials mentioned that CoVID-19 cases might be up to ten times higher than what has been reported. The weekly jobless claim report decreased 60,000 to 1.480 million for the week ending June 20.
Recap – The picks from yesterday did well considering the market increased by 1.1% with FSLY as the notable outlier. CNX (bearish play) 8.86 -.10 (-1.12%), FISV 97.43 +.82, (+0.85%), FSLY 81.41 +5.34, (+6.98%), AMD 51.91 -0.48 (-0.92%). FTCH, a pick from 06/08/20 had an increase of (+19.64%) ending at 17.79. The price at that time of the post was 15.58.
Today’s Option Activity Fast Facts (Stocks >$6)
Sentiment – CBOE Put/Call Ratio - 0.99, VIX: (33.54, -0.30, -0.9%)
Highest Multiple over Daily Avg (with ADV >1k) – CRBP with 12x it’s ADV of 2,714. There were 24,222 Calls and 10,361 Puts traded.
Ticker with Most Contracts Traded – INO with 282,139 contracts traded. 191,292 Calls and 90,847 puts.
Largest Put to Call Ratio (w/ Option volume over 10k) – CNX with a P/C ratio of 27.89. There were 17,684 Puts and 634 calls traded.
Largest Call to Put Ratio (w/ Option volume over 10k) – CCXI with a C/P ratio of 143.9. There were 19,572 calls and 136 puts traded.
MOMENTUM UNSUAL OPTION ACTIVITY -
Ticker: FLIR
Spot Price : 39.88 +0.94 (+2.41%) Special Considerations : None
Sector: Technology Industry : Scientific & Technical Instruments
Company Summary (from Yahoo Finance):
FLIR Systems, Inc. designs, develops, markets, and distributes thermal imaging systems, visible-light imaging systems, locater systems, measurement and diagnostic systems, and threat-detection solutions worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Industrial Business Unit, Government and Defense Business Unit, and Commercial Business Unit. The Industrial Business Unit segment offers thermal and visible-spectrum imaging camera cores and components for parties that create thermal, industrial, and other types of imaging systems; and products, such as thermal imaging cameras, gas detection cameras, firefighting cameras, process automation cameras, and environmental test and measurement devices. The Government and Defense Business Unit segment offers airborne, land, maritime, man-portable multi-spectrum imaging systems, radars, lasers, imaging components, integrated multi-sensor system platforms, CBRNE detectors, and nano-class UAS solutions, as well as services related to these systems. The Commercial Business Unit segment provides thermal and visible-spectrum security cameras, digital and networked video recorders, and related software and accessories; networked marine electronic systems that include multi-function helm displays, navigational instruments, autopilots, radars, sonar systems, thermal and visible imaging systems; communications equipment for boats, traffic cameras, sensors and associated traffic management software; and handheld thermal imagers. FLIR Systems, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Wilsonville, Oregon.
Next Earnings Date: 08/06/2020
Option Information :
Today's Option Volume: 34852.0 ***Option OI:***48203.0
ADV: 4063.0 Multiple of ADV: 9.0
Total Calls: 34010.0 Total Puts: 842.0 C/P Ratio: 40.39
Calls at Ask: 41% Calls at Bid: 27%
Puts at Ask: 26% Puts at Bid: 29%
Notable Strikes :
JUL 17 ’20 45C had 22.8k VLM with 6.88k OI.
JUL 17 ’20 40C had 21.78k VLM with 3.13k OI.
OCT 16 ’20 45C had 5.06k VLM with 5.10k OI.
News : None on briefing or IB. Last print was June 09, 2020 where FLIR announced that the US Army and Navy had placed orders for their products.
My Impression : This stock gained considerable momentum when the pandemic first started. There was focus on possible deals with the military as well as increased need for thermal imaging systems. On May 8th the stock was $50 and has trended down since then. This seems like a solid bet given the current CoVID-19 environment and previously having traced down from it’s high without any negative news that I can find.
  1. Ticker: AGNC
Spot Price : 13.19 +.37, (+2.89%) Special Considerations : None
Sector:Real Estate Industry : REIT Mortgage
Company Summary (from Yahoo Finance): AGNC Investment Corp. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by government-sponsored enterprise or by the United States government agency. It funds its investments primarily through borrowings structured as repurchase agreements. The company has elected to be taxed as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes, if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as American Capital Agency Corp. and changed its name to AGNC Investment Corp. in September 2016. AGNC Investment Corp. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.
Next Earnings Date: 07/29/2020
Option Information :
Today's Option Volume: 63559.0 ***OPTIONOI:***153260.0
ADV: 10814.0 Multiple of ADV: 6.0
Total Calls: 57068.0 Total Puts: 6491.0 C/P Ratio: 8.79
Calls at Ask: 51.7% Calls at Bid: 32.4%
Puts at Ask: 11.4% Puts at Bid: 19.0%
Notable Strikes :
JUL 17 ’20 13C had 35.1k VLM with 3.32k OI
JUL 17 ’20 13.5C had 6.86k VLM with 187 OI
JUL 17 ’20 14C had 2.60k VLM with 4.15k OI
News : June 24, 20 Argus initiated a buy with a target of $15. Spot price at the time was 13.04.
My Impression : REITs in general are a hot sector right now. If you’ve been following these posts you will notice they show up frequently. Most recent high for this stock was March 26thwhere it reached ~14.50. Prior to the CoVID-19 crash the stock was around ~19.50. Seems like this could be a good bet.
CLASSIC UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY –
This section can be found at www.noeticoptions.com
Upcoming Events for Tomorrow –
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30AM
Consumer Sentiment 10:00AM.
Thanks for reading.
DISCLAIMER – These are my observations that I have made at the end of each day and trades that I am considering placing or watching. I am not responsible for your financial losses if you follow any of these trades. As always, do your due diligence.
submitted by noentic to u/noentic [link] [comments]

/u/Kotasuoa on As of 2020: Is the Right in America and the West on the brink of defeat? Or can they still recover?

Reply Part 1:
I want to be an optimist about this situation, but in light of these last 3 months it’s really hard for me to see any positive outcome for the right.
Same here.. the future as I see it looks pretty bleak as of lately.
Felix Rex aka Black Pigeon Speaks has an incredible video on why Trump is likely going to be the last Republican to ever sit in the Oval Office. In the video he states that mass immigration from third world nations has dramatically shifted demographics in key red states.
I've taken a notice to this as well. On the bright side, the Rust Belt states, Oregon, New Hampshire & Maine have been shifting Red lately in large part due to an exodus of either urban city dwellers to other states or political realignment due to both parties shifting positions. Either way, I don't see how the Rust Belt + Oregon + a few Northeastern states being Red States can win Republicans the White House in the future with larger states like Texas, Florida, Georgia and Arizona being Blue States in the future. Unless Illinois also turns Red, then there's a slight chance.
It happened to California, which was solidly red since it’s inception, and then flipped blue in the last 30 years because of the importing of migrants.
Well, California wasn't solidly Red since its inception. In fact, it was actually a reliable Democratic state for most of the 19th Century with a few times swinging to Republicans. It become solidly Red in the 1920s and again with Eisenhower. But it hasn't gone Red since due to immigration.
If I'm not mistaken, Hispanics now make up the majority of the Golden State's population.
He pointed out what’s happening to Texas, where border counties are now blue strongholds again because of immigration. In this election cycle, Texas has a slim but attainable chance of flipping blue.
As someone who lived in Texas for quite a while, I'll admit that I'm shocked that Texas has remained a Red state for as long as it has. Harris County, once a Red county has now turned into a Blue stronghold.. Texas will most likely flip Blue in 2028 or 2032 and will be in the solid Blue column at that point as well.
Culturally, conservatives have always been... conservative. They’d rather not fight. They play defense, if they play anything at all.
This is something that I've been railing about for years now. Conservatives keep losing the culture wars because they don't fight back at all, although they'll state otherwise and try to point they have been fighting, even though the evidence showing contrary is so overwhelming. If they do fight back, they only do so when its too late to win. Instead of trying to regain ground and restore what was lost, they gradually surrender battles and save what culture is left. Soon, they'll find the culture all but lost to the Progressives..
Same goes with the electoral college, rather than stay, fight back and try to flip Solid Blue States like Trump did in 2016. Rather than trying to flip California, Illinois, Washington State, Connecticut, Delaware, etc, they simply write them all off and the Conservatives living in those states pack their stuff up and leave. That said, I won't be surprised if many on the Right end up fleeing the country should the Democrats regain control of the Senate and White House this year and continue to hold them throughout this decade. Because they don't have the same fighting spirit their ancestors did ages ago during both the Civil War and Revolutionary War before that. Instead, far too many capitulate and run.
In 2016, we won the battle, but not the war. Trump’s victory infuriated the left. It energized their voter ranks and they pushed harder on the whole “America is a big bad evil place and Donald Trump is proof of it” message. Think of the women’s march, science march, etc any and all “social justice” marches or protests that happened from Inauguration Day through 2018. These emboldened socialist uprisings in major cities, and gave rise to the campaigns for AOC, Illhan Omar and many more. The right was complacent and didn’t concern itself with the future of elections. Since Trump won, how could we lose in the future? Trump didn’t help himself at all either, with every sloppily worded tweet he just encouraged the left even more. The Trump voter base was hibernating. We didn’t fight back when he needed it. It was a stupid move. We sat on our laurels and didn’t fight back when the left came for revenge. And they won 2018.
I remember how amazing the Trump's victory was in 2016. It's a shame that the Conservative Movement blew so much opportunity afterwards though. All of the Conservative thought leaders got caught up in the day to day news and scandals that surrounded the Obama Administration spying on Trump _(which is definitely a big thing, but still it shouldn't have taken away focus from the issues)_and all the while not holding the President or Congress accountable as they spent and passed bloated omnibus bills filled with mainly Democrat priorities, increasing the debt more than Obama did when he was in office.
The base became so overconfident to where as you said, they became blinded by their own victory beforehand. Just like back in 2006 and history repeated itself in 2018..
Now armed with self proclaimed socialists in seats ranging from city councils (see Seattle) to the House of Representatives, the Democrats embraced this new radical authority, since their racial diversity, relative youthfulness, and sprightly energy motivated social justice oriented millennials and gen z’ers to vote for the first time. And now they have war chests full of donations and fundraising money to blockade future elections.
And all of that in itself is pretty scary. Millennials and Gen Z are the two most Leftist generations of all time. Early Gen Xers didn't do a proper job raising Millennials nor did Later Gen Xers do well with Gen Z. The Boomers are guilty of this too, they raised the Old Millennials (born 1981-1988) rather poorly too. The lack of discipline, gratitude and humility of the new generations, it all shows with these riots and the marches from last decade. Racial demographics increasingly moving in favor of the Democrats is a major problem too. Asian Americans used to be staunchly Republican until the mid 2000s before becoming staunchly Democrat. I posted an article from National Review about this not too long ago. With the amount of money raised by the Democrats, they're bound to win more elections in the future than lose..

We let the left win. We messed up, hard. We had the chance to squish these communists once and for all, instead we let them multiply as a result of our own arrogance and laziness.
I fear you are correct. There may be a light at the end of the tunnel, but its closing ever so rapidly.
Fast forward to 2020. Now don’t get me wrong, had the coronavirus not existed, we still would’ve had a solid chance at this upcoming election. The thing is, despite letting the left fester under our noses, Trump had a solid record to run on. 3 years of economic social and political successes gave him perfect ammunition to use against the left, who’s platform basically consisted of nothin more than “cheeto face bad”, peach mints, and CNN nothingburgers.
But the coronavirus pandemic did happen. And as you properly pointed out, the economic gains got deleted in a matter of weeks. Unemployment skyrocketed. And now we’re back to the 1960s with race riots and protests that are still going on after nearly 3 weeks.
Indeed. This year went from being a great one to the most disastrous yet in the span of less than 3 months.
Trump’s election prospects, in my opinion, have gone up in smoke. Now what’s fresh on everyone’s minds is how things aren’t back to normal yet, how millions of people are still unemployed, how 1/5 of all businesses might close, how Trump sank this country into debt by spending our annual GDP 2x over in the span of 7 weeks, how socialists have destroyed and taken over cities amidst these race riots.
When America needed Trump the most, he vanished. That’s why his poll numbers plummeted. And it’s impactful. It paints him as incompetent. And this time I don’t think the numbers are lying.
You're absolutely correct. As it stands due to the factors you mentioned, Trump has lost a substantial portion of his voter base as many of the incompetent decision making by his advisors, namely his son-in-law Jared Kushner are showing more than ever before. The riots were merely the culmination of it all and Kushner stopping Trump from taking action against the riots earlier was catastrophic for him, and it shows in his approval numbers:
Real Clear Politics Average: President Trump's Job Approval Rating
As it stands, Trump's approval has at its lowest since November of last year and is continuing to drop. Soon, it could be back to what it was in 2017 and early 2018...
He's now increasingly losing in the national polls against Biden and in the Presidential betting odds:
Real Clear Politics: General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Real Clear Politics: Latest Betting Odds: Trump vs. Biden
PredictIt.org: Presidential Betting Odds: Trump vs. Biden
Continued in part 2 of reply
from Kotasuoa on As of 2020: Is the Right in America and the West on the brink of defeat? Or can they still recover?
submitted by rightwingnews to DebateRightists [link] [comments]

Bernie Goldberg makes election prediction US Election Betting: Tavis Rendell Interview - Part 2 Kurtz: 2016 election a media failure by historic proportions How prediction market prophets bet on the wrong president Presidential Election 2016: Odds for Trump Win Up BUT Clinton still Strong Favourite

Here’s the current 2016 Presidential Election odds, per Bovada: Hillary Clinton -250 Donald Trump +175 Other +6600 Don’t waste your time with the “other” bet, which references third parties. It’s not going to happen, and here’s why. It’s fun to think about – especially in this election – but the harsh reality is any attraction Ladbrokes, a UK-based gambling company, said about 5 million pounds, or a little over $6 million, had been bet on the 2016 presidential election since its markets on the race opened four years ago. The Tell Trump win sparks ‘betting armageddon’ as bookies get election wrong Published: Nov. 10, 2016 at 3:11 a.m. ET Ladbrokes, a UK-based gambling company, said about 5 million pounds, or a little over $6 million, had been bet on the 2016 presidential election since its markets on the race opened four years ago. Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; Election 2020. RCP Electoral Map; No Toss Up Map; Top State Polls vs. 2016; Latest Betting

[index] [5861] [7411] [3890] [9829] [8637] [370] [11674] [7971] [12860] [8196]

Bernie Goldberg makes election prediction

Presidential Election 2016: Odds for Trump Win Up BUT Clinton still Strong Favourite ... the betting markets and the stock market. Still think that it is going to be closer than the betting market Joe Biden Expands Betting Market Lead Over Donald Trump Let's Talk Elections. ... 2020 Election Predictions Playlist: ... Polls Were NOT Wrong in 2016 - Duration: 13:15. How prediction market prophets bet on the wrong president - Duration: 8:50. PBS NewsHour 46,522 ... This professor has a formula to predict the 2016 election - Duration: 5:39. CBSN 53,939 ... He then talks about Donald Trump's impact on the betting market, the fascinating event that was the 2016 US Election and covers the success of political betting underdogs in recent years. Trump vs. Clinton: 2016 Election betting odds Fox News. Loading... Unsubscribe from Fox News? ... absentee data reveal about 2016 election - Duration: 4:57. Fox News 25,535 views.