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Team Preview - Manchester City [Premier League 2019-20 - 20/20]
submitted by NickTM to soccer [link] [comments]
Manchester City Welcome to the triumphant return of the Premier League Previews, a series where a fan gives an overview of his team for your perusal, and I get an excuse to take pot-shots at other clubs. This will run until the eve of the Premier League, taking a look at each club in turn. Our final preview of the season analyses our reigning champions, Manchester City.
It went well. It went very well. After Manchester City’s Centurions season in 2017/18 saw them run away with the title setting all manner of records as they went, there was a lot of expectation that we’d see a much closer race in 2018/19. That proved to be the case as City finished 2 points shy of their record-setting total and only won the league by a single point, yet it was still the second highest points total in Premier League history and was topped off with a unique domestic clean sweep (3 or 4 domestic trophies depending on your feelings about the Community Shield).
|Pos ||P ||W ||D ||L ||GF ||GA ||GD ||Points |
|1 ||38 ||32 ||2 ||4 ||95 ||23 ||+72 ||98 |
The season kicked off with confident 2-0 victories over Chelsea in the Community Shield and Arsenal in the league opener before Kevin De Bruyne’s injury problems began (injury problems that would plague the majority of his season). His absence didn’t prove to be as pivotal as many feared/hoped, however, thanks in no small part to Bernardo Silva’s formidable season.
After the opening months City had dropped just 4 points and were looking strong, and then December happened. The packed month included 9 matches across all competitions and it took its toll as City lost 3 of their 7 Premier League matches.
Heading into January with Liverpool still unbeaten the title looked lost until the top two met at the Etihad. A true heavyweight clash delivered in entertainment and saw City take all three points by the very finest of margins as John Stones made a vital clearance through the legs of Mohamed Salah with just 11mm to spare.
After beating Liverpool City dropped just 3 more points, ending the season on a remarkable 14-game winning streak to claim the first back-to-back Premier League trophy in 10 years.
This Season While the squad is (on paper) quite comparable to the ones that set both the highest and second highest Premier League points totals in consecutive seasons, the loss of Vincent Kompany is difficult to quantify. Cynics might reasonably point out that City are losing an ageing centre-half who only plays sporadically and is prone to occasional hasty decisions meaning they will just have to give more minutes to a younger centre-half in John Stones, who also appeared sporadically and is prone to occasional hasty decisions. In a strictly material sense that might all be true, but in among Kompany’s hasty decisions was an improbable 30-yard potshot in the 70th minute against Leicester that won the match and kept the title race in City’s hands. It’s his remarkable force of will, his experienced leadership, and his eagerness to carry the weight of the team on his shoulders when no one else can that will be missed with the departure of Kompany and it remains to be seen if there is anyone that will step and lead in the same way.
There’s some change at the back for City this season. Stones and Laporte are expected to be the first choice central pairing, but Otamendi (as the most experienced centre-half in the squad, capable of playing on the right or left side, and probably the best aerial defender in the squad) is likely to be leaned on more this coming season than last. The fourth spot will likely be a straight head-to-head between Fernandinho and the promising young Eric Garcia. At fullback there’s a little more attacking impetus than previously - Zinchenko increasingly looks like a real left back, but Mendy’s injury troubles continue, so Angelino has been brought back to maintain the depth that the outgoing Fabian Delph provided but with more of an attacking mindset. On the right you can expect Walker to finally get some days off with the introduction of another attack-minded option in Joao Cancelo.
The future of the number 6 position looks to finally have been figured out with the signing of Rodri after various misfires in the transfer market and with any luck we’ll have the joy of watching a fully fit Kevin De Bruyne all season. It remains to be seen what role David Silva will play in his final year, especially with Phil Foden needing all the minutes he can get if he is to replace the Spanish stalwart long-term.
Should Sane stay It will be the same again up top with quality depth abound all vying for their place in the matchday XI. Riyad Mahrez began finding his feet at the tail end of 18/19 with a run of strong performances so the hope, should Sane leave, is that Mahrez will continue that form and prove an ample replacement for the upcoming season.
Last season there was a need to prove that the 100 point season wasn’t a fluke. 98 points and 5 out of 5 pieces of domestic silverware later it’s been pretty well established that City probably are in fact that good and may well be able to continue putting up these kinds of numbers until either Pep leaves or the rest of the league adapts (whichever comes first).
All incoming/outgoing transfers Full 2019-20 squad
|Player ||Type ||From ||To ||Fee(£m) |
|Rodri ||Perm ||Atletico Madrid ||Manchester City ||£62.5m |
|Joao Cancelo ||Perm ||Juventus ||Manchester City ||£26m + Danilo |
|Vincent Kompany ||Perm ||Manchester City ||RSC Anderlecht ||Free |
3 players to watch out for
Worth watching out for if only because this is likely to be the last Premier League season for one of the league's greats. On top of that, with the departure of Vincent Kompany, David Silva will be the most senior member of the dressing room and is widely expected to take on the captaincy. Despite making his name as an archetypical number 10, David Silva has managed to stand out as a dynamic and modern number 8 - while at 33 he may not be quite the player he once was but he continues to provide much of the creativity in the final third so enjoy him while you can.
The number 6 position in general will be one to watch this season. In previous years Fernandinho has been undisputed first choice, but at 34 years of age he can’t last forever. Ilkay Gundogan started to make a case for himself in the run-in last season having finally added a little extra defensive nous to his already outstanding passing range and ended the season as a starter. New signing Rodri (at age 23) appears to be the future of the number 6 role - touted by many as Busquets 2.0 and now training under the same coach that brought Busquets to the world’s attention, Rodri’s ascent seems inevitable, but arriving in a new league and playing rather a different style of football will test his adaptability in the short-term.
Kevin De Bruyne
Not exactly a hidden gem here but your life can only be improved by watching out for a fully fit KDB. De Bruyne was among the very best players in the League (if not world) in 2017/18 but struggled significantly with injuries and missed much of last season. It may seem like a stretch to say that he was “missed” given the levels City reached last season but when he’s in the team City can transition much more efficiently and there’s always a sense that one pass could cut open even the most resolute defence.
What the fans think
Thanks to /MCFC for their help.
How do you think this season will go? Last season was an unprecedened success, winning every domestic trophy possible. The aim for this season will obviously be to continue on as we have been domestically, and improve in Europe. The past two campaigns have been disappointing, and I think we can do better - but will we? It's hard to say. However, I think we're the most equipped team to fight on two fronts - especially after signing Rodri, in a position we've always lacked cover - so I think retaining the title is feasible, and I'd be happy with an improved performance in Europe.
I think we'll win the league. I think our fixture schedule is fairly kind to us (easier run-in than Liverpool and most of our tricky away games are in the first half of the season when we're usually on fire). I trust our players a lot more this time around - although you could argue that the Old Guard carried us in the final weeks of last season, the younger players have got experience and confidence now, and I think that's invaluable.
Which player is going to be your star of the season and why? KDB has looked frightening ever since he came off the bench at the FA Cup (not to mention his performance against Tottenham before his last injury). He seems angry and frustrated about last season, as if he's got something to prove. I think he's a shoe-in for our player of the season if he can stay fit. I can also see Jesus and Mahrez really coming into their own this season; both of them suffered from low confidence last season, and I think the summers that they had and their great performances at the end of last season signal a lot of growth from both of them.
I think we'll win the league again. This time around I don't think it'll be a close title race like it was last season. We'll get around 93 points while Liverpool will finish second and get around 88 points. In the FA and League cup, I think we'll win one the two and may get knocked out early in the other one. I think this season in the CL, we'll finally reach the final but lose the final.
Gonna go with Bernardo Silva. Let him play his own game and he is one of the best in the league. You would be hard pressed to find many better in the division. Down and up the pitch he works tirelessly. Never gives up. Gonna be hard to find anyone to outperform him this season. Run, pass, shoot, tackle, he can do it all. Around him he has an aura of a greatness.
How do you think the team will line up? 4-3-3 like always, but with even more depth. Ederson; Walker, Stones, Laporte, Zinchenko; Rodri/Dinho, Silva, KdB; Sterling, Aguero, Bernardo, should be our first choice starting XI. Rodri vs Dinho is anyone's guess. If Mahrez steps up, we might see Bernardo moved to the midfield paired with KdB. Aguero will continue to start over Jesus, Nico will likely rotate with Stones and Cancelo (if he comes) will rotate with WalkeZinchenko. We might even see Mendy play a full match before the season ends.
And now we come to the hardest part, predicting the line up. Desert any dreams on consistency at the door. You are going to see a lot of rotation from City this season. Never assume we will have everyone healthy at the same time, but if we do I think this is how we will line up.
Wrap Up by NickTM
The Manager: The legendary Pep Guardiola. Not much to say about him that hasn't already been said at length. A managerial genius, Guardiola's dogmatic adherence to the style of play he passionately believes in is no deterrence to the outright dominance of his teams. With 28 pieces of silverware in his collection as a manager alone, he's as close to a guaranteed title win as you can get from a manager of a top club. Entering his 11th year of top-level manager, his brilliance remains undimmed.
The Team: Simply put, Manchester City's team is terrifying. It's unlikely any club team has brought to bear this level of depth in talent in the Premier League at very least. Ederson holds court between the sticks in his third season at the club, and Aymeric Laporte partners one of Nicolas Otamendi and John Stones just in front. Danilo has been replaced by Joao Cancelo at right back, and Oleksandr Zinchenko's highly successful conversion to left back makes him the leading contender for that spot. It's in midfield where the team wins their games, though, a superlative array of talent fronted by Silvas David and Bernardo, held together by Fernandinho (and the newly arrived Rodri) and powered by Ilkay Gündogan's dynamism. An attacking trio containing Raheem Sterling, the supremely reliable Sergio Aguero, Riyad Mahrez and Gabriel Jesus will be affected but not brought low by the unfortunate loss of Leroy Sane. That's without even mentioning the brilliance of the returning Kevin De Bruyne, the promise of Phil Foden or the absolute talent of Scott Carson. It is a glittering squad.
Why to like them: Guardiola's teams play football 'the right way' (tm) and whilst their style of play isn't necessarily my favourite, it's hard to not appreciate the sheer fluidity of attack and technical prowess being displayed. Raheem Sterling has also blossomed from the kid with a dodgy agent who sacked off Liverpool at a moment's notice to England's leading attacking talent and icon for the fight against discrimination in football.
Why to dislike them: Their owners essentially launder the image of a brutal, oppressive regime as well as their own grimy reputations simply by owning a successful football team, and it clearly worked for City fans. Personally, despite all the fanboying over their playstyle, I'm not really much of a fan. Pep Guardiola has a tendency to be unbearably smug at times. Also, they're really fucking good, so it's fun to watch them lose.
Summary: Got it in the bag, surely? Man City replaced their major first team loss in Danilo and propped up Fernandinho's advancing age with his heir apparent in Rodri. Their strength in depth continues to be unrivaled, and Raheem Sterling continues to improve as Sergio Aguero has shown no signs of slowing down. The major questions for me revolve first around losing Leroy Sane, which takes away not just some options in depth but also a truly direct runner that City could well miss against certain teams. More notable might be the intangible loss of Vincent Kompany, the City legend departing to Anderlecht as player-manager. Kompany's leadership and will to win were obvious even in one of his numerous spells on the sidelines, and when he got on the pitch he'd produce moments of brilliance that have kept Man City alive when they were faltering - the most recent being that wonderful goal against Leicester that sent them top. It's a strong team with a lot of experienced leaders, but it's hard to calculate the value of such a talisman until he's gone. With all that said, you'd be a fool to bet against them retaining their title, and you have to make them favourites at this early stage.
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Project: Averaging correct score predictions for Premier League.
submitted by BillGoats to SoccerBetting [link] [comments]
12th of April edit
Alright, this was fun though it didn't go too well. I am hoping to collaborate with redditors to develop some formulas to calculate predictions with higher accuracy. I am already in touch with people regarding this, and I am working on a spreadsheet myself. If you think you can contribute in any way, please PM me.
Anyway, I will be back next week. Meanwhile I'm crossing my fingers for the Liverpool game tomorrow. Thanks for the support so far! Hello,
This is my first suggestion post ever. Please be nice.
As you all know, correct scores have tremendous odds for a reason. I still enjoy placing tiny bets on big correct score accumulators. Odds-wise it's kind of like playing the lottery, I guess. I have been making my own guesses with a little guidance from WinDrawWin.
I recently discovered Predictz and SoccerVista as well and decided it'd be better to include these in my calculations as well.
The system I check the score predictions on weekend PL matches on the three sites mentioned above, and I calculate the average home and away score for each match. I will then place a tiny amount on an accummulator with as many bets as I'm allowed to include, as well as X doubles or singles (I haven't decided on a permanent system for this so it will vary for now).
DISCLAIMER: I admittedly haven't won anything betting this way yet, but that's mostly because I've been doing accumulators of 6+ games, which I realize now isn't the brightest idea. I will however keep doing one single accumulator serving as my weekly lottery ticket.
The idea is that winning even once will cover my losses by far and then some (and then some more). Without further ado:
|Fixture ||Prediction ||Unibet Odds ||Actual result |
|Swansea - Everton ||1-0 ||7.50 ||1-1 (lost) |
|Southhampton - Hull ||2-0 ||6.00 ||2-0 (won) |
|Sunderland - Crystal Palace ||0-2 ||12.50 ||1-4 (lost) |
|Tottenham - Aston Villa ||2-0 ||7.50 ||0-1 (lost) |
|West Brom - Leceister ||1-0 ||7.50 ||2-3 (lost) |
|West Ham - Stoke ||0-1 ||6.75 ||1-1 (lost) |
|Burnley - Arsenal ||0-2 ||7.50 ||0-1 (lost) |
|QPR - Chelsea ||0-3 ||9.00 ||0-1 (lost) |
|Man Utd - Man City ||2-1 ||9.50 ||4-2 (lost) |
|Liverpool - Newcastle ||3-0 ||9.50 ||2-0 (lost) |
Aggregate odds: 173475659 Yeah, that's way above what Unibet allows. So, for my accumulator I excluded Sunderland - Crystal Palace and Man Utd - Man City. I chose these because I personally doubt the predictions and they were among the highest odds. Here you may wonder why I still go with these bets if I doubt the predictions. This is because I want to try out this system and see where it leads me.
Please know that I am aware of the astronomically low chances of winning. I do this for fun and the aforementioned, astronomically low chances of winning. I play for spare money and stick to small bets for this system. If I lose 99% of the time and struck an accumulator with last 1% I will still make a huge profit. In that is where I find the excitement.
- 1 NOK (0.12 USD) per double for a total of 36 doubles - 36 NOK (4.44 USD). Total potential winnings: 2535 NOK (312.87 USD).
- One huge accumulator with an odds of 1460848. Stake: 1 NOK (0.12 USD). Potential winnings: 180,351.90 USD.
If it turns out that people choose to join in on this, I might do it weekly. We'll see. Otherwise, it's a very simple system so you can easily do it yourself.
Good luck, everyone!
EDIT: Added an "actual result" column. Will update this as matches are played.
EDIT2 : Okay, one correct bet so far. Just need one more to cover my stake.
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