Complete Guide to NHL Betting in 2020 - How to Bet on the

Have you just been really unlucky, or does your betting strategy need some work? Methods to Estimate Prediction Error

Everyone has gotten unlucky on a seemingly sure bet that backfired. We hate losing that nail biter. It hurts a lot more than that blowout loss where you weren’t even close. The question is: should each loss (and alternatively each win) be treated equally?
Margin of Victory
If most of your wins are by a single point and you’re getting blown out in your losses, it might be a sign that your Win/Loss performance is due for a regression. Alternatively, if your only losses are of the nail biter variety, you might just be on the wrong side of variance. As an assessment, it might be helpful to measure your margin of victory on your wagers.
The margin of victory (“MOV”) measurement is a simple but useful measurement of how well your bets are performing. Since bets are generally binary outcomes (win or loss) there is a quite a bit of variance when it comes to measurement by simply wins and losses. Using the MOV measurement can give you a more precise measurement that isn’t as influenced by the binary nature of wager outcomes. This is identical to evaluating team performance using net differential as opposed to W-L.
MOV Example:
Say you placed the 15 NBA ATS bets below, winning 7 and losing 8 during the first week of March:


Date Wager Odds Win/Loss
3/1/2020 Kings -7.5 -110 L
3/1/2020 Nuggets -2.5 -110 W
3/2/2020 Cavaliers +10 -110 L
3/3/2020 76ers +12.5 -110 L
3/3/2020 Warriors +15 -110 W
3/4/2020 Pacers +11.5 -110 L
3/4/2020 Thunder -8 -110 L
3/4/2020 Blazers -7.5 -110 W
3/5/2020 Raptors -9 -110 L
3/6/2020 Bulls +2 -110 L
3/6/2020 Celtics -1.5 -110 L
3/6/2020 Mavericks -7.5 -110 W
3/7/2020 Grizzlies -6.5 -110 W
3/8/2020 Pacers +6.5 -110 W
3/8/2020 Magic +8 -110 W
Wins 7
Losses 8
Win % 46.7%
A 46.7% winning percentage at -110 is certainly not a profitable record when betting the same amount every time. We could just assume that these weren’t very good bets. What we’d rather do, however, is examine our margin of victory for these games. The first wager of Kings -7.5, for example, was a game that the favorite failed to cover by 1.5 points, winning the game by 6 points when favorite bettors had to lay 7.5. Your wager (Kings -7.5) would have a MOV of -1.5 since your bet lost by 1.5 points.

Date Wager Pts Opp Pts Result Line W/L MOV
3/1/2020 Kings -7.5 106 100 -6 -7.5 L -1.5
We can do this same analysis for each wager and find that your MOV averaged 17.5 points in your wins and -3.1 in your losing wagers. Thus despite a losing record, your wagers had a total MOV of 6.5 points.

Date Wager Odds Win/Loss MOV
3/1/2020 Kings -7.5 -110 L -1.5
3/1/2020 Nuggets -2.5 -110 W 12.5
3/2/2020 Cavaliers +10 -110 L -3
3/3/2020 76ers +12.5 -110 L -0.5
3/3/2020 Warriors +15 -110 W 31
3/4/2020 Pacers +11.5 -110 L -7.5
3/4/2020 Thunder -8 -110 L -1
3/4/2020 Blazers -7.5 -110 W 13.5
3/5/2020 Raptors -9 -110 L -1
3/6/2020 Bulls +2 -110 L -4
3/6/2020 Celtics -1.5 -110 L -6.5
3/6/2020 Mavericks -7.5 -110 W 17.5
3/7/2020 Grizzlies -6.5 -110 W 10.5
3/8/2020 Pacers +6.5 -110 W 9.5
3/8/2020 Magic +8 -110 W 28
Wins 7 17.5
Losses 8 -3.1
Average MOV 6.5
This certainly indicates that variance was not on your side as you were on the losing side of several one-possession games and most of your wins occurred at pretty comfortable MOVs.
Now certainly there are limitations to an MOV analysis. First, since it is an “average” measurement, it can be influenced by outliers. You might consider capping the MOV (say a 10 or 15-point maximum MOV) to reduce the impact of outliers.
Second, different sports have different key numbers and a simple MOV analysis does not account for key numbers or non-normal distributions.
Lastly, this type of analysis doesn’t translate as easily for moneyline wagers. To make an apples to apples comparison, you would need to assess the average score differential at various moneylines. We computed the average run differential of away teams in the MLB based on the breakeven win probability of their moneyline odds in the graph linked below.
Normalizing Run Differentials Based on Implied Win Probability
More Granular Measurements
For sports that have lumpy scoring (NFL, NHL, MLB) you might perform a similar analysis using even more granular data than scoring. For example, to remove cluster luck from baseball scoring, you might do an analysis of net base production or in football you might analyze yards per play or play success rates.
Grading Your Own Predictions
Now let’s say you’ve made a model to come up with your own predictions for games (we’ll cover several ways to do this in our model building section) and you want to assess your predictions vs the market (or someone else). In statistics and machine learning, two common ways of assessing performance are by the mean absolute error (“MAE”) and the root mean squared error (“RMSE”) of various models.
Mean Absolute Error
The great thing about these terms is that their names so accurately describe their calculations. The mean absolute error is the average (mean) of the absolute value of your model’s prediction error. So if you forecasted a game to be -5 and the game ended in -3 the absolute value of the error of your model was 2 points. Do that for every prediction and take the average. Simple enough.
Root Mean Squared Error
The root mean squared error is conceptually very similar to MAE except that you first 1) square your error term, then 2) take the average (mean) of the squared error terms and finally 3) take the squared root of those squared errors.
We’ve calculated the MAE and RMSE for the NBA ATS wagers that you made linked below. Naturally, since those wagers had a positive average MOV, we’re not surprised that the prediction error was less than the market.
MAE and RMSE
The difference between MAE and RMSE is that by squaring the error values, you are more heavily penalizing predictions with large errors. If large errors are significantly worse than smaller errors, then RMSE might be a better calculation for you to use. Otherwise MAE will work just fine.
submitted by cleatstreet to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Updating the 2021 Seattle Expansion Draft Projection

So around 2 years ago I wrote a post detailing how the Bruins were set up for the expansion draft, but considering plenty has changed and with the draft only a year away, I figured it's time to look at it again.
It's a pretty strong guess that we go 7-3-1 and not the 8-1 route, so I'm operating under the likely assumption that we do. I'm also going to be attempting to make some assumptions about player movement that very well could turn out to be wrong - we can't be sure of who we sign or trade, but we have to work with what we have now and try to build in flexibility based on how the upcoming year unfolds.
Let's start with the players the Bruins must protect with respect to the rules of the draft, aka players with NMCs. The following players have NMCs for the upcoming season: Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. They would likely be protected anyway, so no harm there. Coyle has a modified NTC, but he's still eligible, as is Krejci even with an expiring M-NTC.
There's only one defenseman who has an NMC, and that's Zdeno Chara, but this is more complicated than it appears. He's on a one year deal, meaning that theoretically, next year could be his last with the Bruins or in the league period (just saying it's possible, not that it's likely or impending). Given when the draft falls - June - this is prior to when his contract expires (July 1st), and the wording of the NHL's description seems to imply they might have to protect him, but I'm not sure of the implications of these scenarios and can't find a definitive answer as to whether we have to protect expiring contracts. As Vegas was, Seattle will be allowed to sign pending UFAs and consider it their pick from the team, however we essentially know that Chara would probably not sign with Seattle and that Seattle would prefer another player. That said, I'm moving forward under the assumption they don't have to protect him because Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau had expiring contracts with NMCs in 2017 and were not protected by the Sharks. That's as close to definitive as I can get, but if I'm wrong I can amend this.
Who Is Protected
F1: Patrice Bergeron (NMC)
F2: Brad Marchand (NMC)
F3: David Pastrnak
F4: Charlie Coyle
F5: David Krejci
F6: Jake Debrusk
F7: Anders Bjork*
D1: Charlie McAvoy
D2: Brandon Carlo
D3: Torey Krug or Matt Grzelcyk
G1: Tuukka Rask
Now there's a few things here. The first 4 forwards and Jake Debrusk are essentially no-brainers. I'm assuming, as I've seen most of you agree throughout discussions of this topic, that David Krejci gets a modest (term) extension with us at the conclusion of this year. This could change depending on the performance of Studnicka theoretically and whether or not the Bruins feel comfortable going Bergeron - Coyle - Studnicka down the middle and re-investing the savings elsewhere. I'm assuming Studnicka won't take the 3C by storm in his second year pro, so Krejci likely gets re-signed.
Another thing here is the battle for the seventh protection slot. That could go to any of a few players: Ondrej Kase and Nick Ritchie will need RFA extensions, but they would need to be protected and could outperform Bjork, and even Sean Kuraly could be protected. I'm assuming the team likes Bjork's defensive play and potential offensive upside slightly more than the others at the moment, but this could change rapidly especially with Kase and perhaps even Ritchie getting time in the top 6.
The big kerfuffle here, to me, is that third defenseman slot. If you lose Torey Krug to another team in free agency, then you don't worry about it - you protect Grzelcyk and call it a day. Krug has a good chance of signing here however, and I very much doubt that the Bruins would sign Krug and then immediately expose him in the draft; they may even have to give him some kind of NMC to lower his AAV. So the pro is that you retain one of the best offensive defenseman in the game (without knowing the contract obviously) and the con is that you expose an exceptional and affordable transition defenseman who really pulls a ton of weight for your defensive structure, in my opinion.
Goaltender, of course, would be Rask. Him and Halak will be UFAs at that point, but I think it's a safe bet that Rask gets an extension, regardless of what it looks like. Halak is tricker, especially with Vladar excelling in the AHL and potentially pushing for playing time. Considering his play the last few years, he could sign with Seattle and that might count as our pick, but there could be other options for Seattle in net that make this unrealistic, like whatever Pittsburgh does in net (it's looking like they protect Jarry, and I could see Seattle taking a chance on Murray, though this doesn't negate the possibility of Halak especially with Murray's recent performance).
Who Gets Exposed
This is just a partial list off the top of my head, and I could be wrong on some of these. I'm trying to recall who is and isn't considered a second year pro, so consider this more of a rough guide subject to change than the gospel.
Who Gets Selected
Now of course, I can't just give you a name; a lot of this depends on how the following year shakes out, and a lot of moves have to be made before we get a finalized list. Anyone can have a brilliant or horrible season and change the dynamic of this discussion instantly, but that said, I can give you some contenders.
The biggest is of course Matt Grzelcyk. If you have to protect Chara, he's exposed either way, but he's only protected if you don't have to protect Krug as well. Whatever the odds of us retaining Krug are (pretty decent I'd assume), that could be dangerous for Grzelcyk. If I'm quite honest, this is the scenario where you attempt to bargain with Seattle. I'd rather lose a pick and some other player than Matt Grzelcyk, but Seattle is entirely within their right (and you could make a decent case that it's a good idea for them) to simply say no and pluck an excellent defenseman here.
After that, who are the prime targets? The second tier here consists of a number of players: Lauzon, Vladar, Halak, Kase, and Ritchie. There's some good NHL talent there, and while some of this depends on us, a lot depends on Seattle as well. If they feel they can get forwards elsewhere, they're more likely to take Lauzon of this group, or vice versa position-wise.
Then there's a third tier of "probably not but maybe", like Kuraly, Clifton, and Moore. I don't think the latter two have shown enough to warrant being chosen over other options, but if Seattle feels they need a good bottom 6 jack-knife, that could be Kuraly's music. Never say never but probably safe.
The Bottom Line
The Bruins can safely retain their core here, and most of their admittedly limited prizes prospects should remain under team control, with the exception of Lauzon and Vladar being tantalizing options. Matt Grzelcyk is in a significant amount of danger, and we may also see goaltending shakeups, as we saw Vegas was very bold with their choice of our players. The biggest possible losses at F appear to be the newest acquisitions with Kase and Ritchie.
So let me know your thoughts, what I got wrong, what you think the team should do, etc. Thanks!
submitted by Wheezin_Ed to BostonBruins [link] [comments]

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submitted by freispiele to u/freispiele [link] [comments]

[Serious] Where does Robin Lehner wind up next year?

We've been talking about it on the VGK subreddit and I felt like it was interesting enough to make it league-wide. Curious on your opinions.
I'm just gonna copy/paste my estimation on the goalie market. Feel free to tell me I'm wrong. Fans of other teams are gonna know y'all's goalie situations better than me.
If Vegas keeps him, it would be more of a situation where you'd be looking at splits like they're doing (when healthy) in Long Island and Arizona.
I think a lot of people are also overestimating the goalie market. Basically there aren't many teams in a contender window who are actually looking for a goalie. There's a reason he's only been getting one year deals other than GMs worrying about him backsliding into addiction.
By division:
Metro - Caps don't have the space to keep their current Vezina winner goalie, so Lehner would have to take a discount to go there. Which, he's already said he is going to pursue being paid like he thinks he deserves. Pens feel good with their tandem. Islander's feel good with their tandem. Flyers feel confident Carter Hart is their goalie of the future. BJs pretty happy with the play of Korpisalo and Merzlikins. Rangers are already in goalie hell. Devil's aren't competitive.
So, Carolina is a possibility.
Atlantic - Tampa Bay has Vasilevskiy, they're happy. Panthers and Habs are buried under untenable long contracts for goalies already. Bruins have arguably the best tandem in the league. Maple Leafs are in cap hell, but maybe they figure out a way to make it work? Plus they're high on Andersen. Sabres might be a legit bubble team with better tending so maybe them. Senators don't pay players. Red Wings are in full rebuild.
So, maybe Sabres, super soft maybe on Toronto.
Central - Blues love Binners. Avs pretty happy with Grub and Frenchman. Stars happy with Bishop. Jets happy with Hellebuyck. Wild are rebuilding. Blackhawks rebuilding, else they would have signed him long term instead of sending him to us in the first place. Nashville might be in the market if they think Saros can't get back to form because Rinne's contract expires same time Fleury's does.
So, theoretically Nashville, but if you consider them you have to consider us because it's the same situation. Except if Saros gets back to form, they've got an NHL caliber backup in their system while we don't, so...
Pacific - Oilers would be interested probably. Mike Smith is on a one year deal and Lehner is an upgrade on Koskinen. Flames would probably be comfortable betting on Rittich long term as he's younger and quite good. Canucks currently pretty happy with Marky, although there's some talk about what they're gonna do with the Seattle draft. Maybe them? Yotes happy with Kuemper. San Jose is in cap hell, in large part because Jones is still locked in until the end of time. Ducks have Gibson. Kings doing a soft rebuild and Cal Petersen looks to be a stud. Vegas doesn't have an answer for when Fleury's contract is up in two years other than to re-sign him and hope his level of play returns to year one/two levels.
So, Oilers for sure. Maybe Flames. Knights still need a long term answer. Canucks are in kind of an interesting spot regarding their goalies and the Seattle draft so maybe them.
By my count, that's 3 teams that would genuinely be in on him (Carolina, Edmonton, Sabres) and 5 more counting ourselves who might be or are looking for a long term answer (Toronto, Flames, Nashville, Vegas, Vancouver)
To add on, I don't genuinely think Toronto is interested because I don't know how they shed the cap, and both management and fans seem to agree it's not that Andersen can't do it but their defense routinely lets him down. I am also not really convinced the Flames pull the trigger because Rittich is good enough that I don't think you bring in another guy to fight for his job this off season. And, someone pointed out in our sub that the Sabres and Lehner didn't exactly have an amicable breakup so while I think they need goalie help, the relationship between Lehner and Buffalo management might put a dampener on that possibility.
I am hopeful the Knights figure out a deal before the end of the year, but if that doesn't happen, Edmonton or Carolina are realistically the only places I can see him going where he'll be able to immediately be the starter and can give him the term/money he's looking for.
submitted by SRSFACE_I8C to hockey [link] [comments]

Barzal on Victor Hedman: "He's just so long and smooth." Barzal, Scheifele and P. Kane's thoughts on NHL opponents via Zoom call.

A transcription of the questions and answers presented here.
Face-off in your own zone with ten seconds left--who takes the face-off?
Barzal:
I'm thinking O'Reilly. I'm going to take O'Reilly, I don't even think I've won a draw against him in three years now, so...
Kane:
Yeah, I'd say O'Reilly maybe on the left side. I know Seguin is really good on the right side. He's maybe a little bit underrated, but it seems like we always kind of have a tough time against him in Dallas.
Scheifele:
I'm going to go with Bergeron on either side. You know, I actually have had some good night against him, unless you're in Boston, then you just get... uh, the stats guys give it to him a little bit. [laughs] I think when push comes to shove, you put him in a face-off dot, he's going to take it. Definitely not Barzy. [laughs]
Barzal:
[laughs] Aww, man. I had some bad nights this year.
Games on the line. One-on-one, pucks on your stick--which defender do you least want to see defending the one-on-one?
Scheifele:
I'm going to go with Ryan Suter. We play Minnesota a ton. I think his angles are so good. When you go one-on-one, you're going to try and back him down a little bit, probably try to beat him, and his angles are so good. His stick is so good. You're not going to be able to shoot through him, he can block shots. His angles and his feet are so good that he's just so hard to beat. Maybe you could take him wide, but his angles are so good you're not going to be able to get actually a good quality chance. I wouldn't want to see him.
Kane:
I'd go with Shea Weber. Especially when he was in Nashville, when we were playing those folks 8 times a year. He's just a bear to go against. So strong, he's so big. If you ever got in a corner with him, there's no way you're coming out with the puck--or if you do, you're going to take some pretty big punishment for making that happen. Even today, when we play Montreal, same type of thing. If I get over to that left side [...] and I'm against him, he's just so physically punishing. He'd always be a tough guy to go up against for me.
Barzal:
Those are two good picks, but I think Victor Hedman for me. He's just so long and smooth. His gap's always perfect, and if you try to take him wide, he's 6'6, so you're not really getting around him. He can just hold you off, his stick is always so good, it's just always in your face. There's just not much room out there against him. He's not going to physically punish you maybe like Weber will, but he's just always in your grille, just poking at the puck. Just in perfect position, just always battling. He's a tough one for me.
Okay, now there is a 2-on-1, who is the player you most want to have with you on the 2-on-1?
Barzal:
I'll put Ovi on the left side. Just 'cause it's an easy pass for me as a righty. If I was coming down on my left side, maybe throw Kaner over there, give him the one-T but I think down my right side, a little sauce to Ovi is probably going in.
Kane:
I know you said no teammates, but I guess this kind of counts for that, but I'd probably have to say Panarin. I know I played with him a couple of years. The way he sees the game and the way he plays it was very similar to the way that I saw the game. Just really, really fun hockey, you know? Just kind of playing off each other, kind of hanging out on our sides, and almost like mirror-ment of each other, what the other person was going to do. That was probably the funnest hockey I ever played was playing with him. I think if I'm coming down on a 2-on-1, same type of thing, throw him a little saucer pass, and he's going to bang it in the net most of the time.
Scheifele:
It wasn't that fun playing against you. [laughs] You just stood in the middle and just tried to whack it down, just try to knock it down, because they were just throwing seam sauces to each other. You didn't even go after them, you just sit in the middle and whack it.
Kane:
Well, that's like you guys now. We get these 2-0 leads on you guys, and then all of the sudden, the second period rolls around and we just can't get out of our own end. You know, Scheifs in the middle doing his little sweeper one-timers, and Wheels is feeding him in the middle, it's like, it's not that fun to play against you guys, so we feel the same way.
Okay, you're on you're off-wing, and your stick is cocked and one-timer is ready. Who's the guy you want to be with the puck on the 2-on-1?
Scheifele:
It has to be Blake Wheeler, but I can't say him. He's #1 though. You know, if I'm cocked and one-timer, I'm going to want a righty passing to me. A little better angle, he's able to manipulate that D a little bit better, and you know, the pass is a better angle for that one-timer, so I'm going to go with Stamkos. He's not known for his passing, but I've skated with him a lot over the years, and he does this little 2-on-1 pass that's pretty nifty. So, I'm going to go with him.
Barzal:
That's Oatesy's boy, eh? [laugh] Staying true.
Scheifele:
Actually, if Oatesy was still playing... he's probably the best passer of anyone. I don't know if he could keep up to the boys now. If he hears that, he's going to be pissed I said that. [laughs]
Kane:
I'm going to go with the best passer in the league right now, I'm going to go with McDavid. And he's got the speed coming down to kind of manipulate the defender, and maybe make him think he's going to the net as well. He's not a bad pick.
Best defenseman in the league keeping the puck in at the point?
Barzal:
I mean, I feel like Burns has a bunch back there. That's not really something I pick up on during a game if a D-man is doing a really good job holding the puck in on the blueline. Actually, John Carlson has a wicked stick picking pucks out of the air, he's picked a few of mine off that I thought were good. I'd say John Carlson out there.
Most fearless defenseman on a pinch?
Scheifele:
Roman Josi, by far. He's fearless back there. He'll spinorama two different times, he'll toe drag you, he'll go right down the middle. He's fearless, but he's pretty good at it. If he has just an inch on you, he's going to take advantage. He's by far the toughest.
Most annoying shot blocker?
Kane:
I'd probably have to say Hjalmarsson. I've seen this guy just eat pucks his whole career. Now he's in Arizona, and he's just like, that's how he plays the game, you know? He just wants to block shots. [laughs] That's how he plays. It's hilarious to see him. He'll block a couple of shots, and he'll be hobbling around, but he still gets up and blocks the next one and then hobbles back to the bench to be out there the next shift. The guy's a warrior.
Barzal:
I want to throw two of my teammates in that conversation. I think Scott Mayfield and Adam Pelech must block 7 or 8 a game. We don't play against each other to much, us, and Winnipeg, and Chicago, but those two guys, oh my god, I've never seen anything like that. Mayfield wants to eat shots in practice on my team, he loves it.
On a breakaway, which goalie do you not want to see in net?
Scheifele:
Carey Price for sure. He's so calm in the net. He outconfidences you. His confidence in the net in his abilities, he's #1 I definitely don't want to see.
Barzal:
I'm going to go with Pekka Rinne. I don't know why, we've had a tough time with Nashville scoring goals. He's had some good nights against us. I think I've had two breakaways against him now, and both I didn't score on.
Kane:
I was going to say Price as well. He's like, especially, we had that shootout in 2007 against Canada in the world juniors, and I went 0/2 on him. Same type of thing, he's so calm and patient in the net. I'd also throw Vasilevskiy in there. You think you have him beat, and he just kicks out his leg. You have to beat him, and then raise it, but you can't raise it too much because his body's over there as well. His legs are so long and athletic. I'd probably have to throw him in there.
Playoff berth is on the line, goes to OT 3-on-3. What other guys are in your line up?
Barzal:
McDavid, one. I'd go with three forwards. If we're trying to score on the first shift, I'm going to go with me, McDavid, and Kucherov. That could be lethal.
Kane:
I'd be on the wing, so I'd need someone to take a face-off. I'd say maybe Matthews as a centreman. He seems like he's pretty lethal in overtime, where he gets a chance and scores. Just to kind of round it out, we play with a defensive-defenseman--or somewhat defensive, but still has the offensive ability to make plays... I'd say Drew Doughty.
Scheifele:
I'm going to go McDavid and Draisaitl. [laughs] Those teammates. They'll probably just go and score themselves, so I'll be the defenseman. [laughs] It seems like every game they get into overtime, it's 30 seconds in, and Draisaitl's got a breakaway, or McDavid's got a breakaway, or a 2-on-1, maybe even a 2-on-0, and they're scoring. I'm going to go with those two guys.
What if you're not on the ice and you have all of NHL's historical players?
Kane:
The first three names that come to my mind would be Gretzky, Lemieux and Bobby Orr. If you had to bet against those guys. You look at Bobby Orr and the amount of points he had, his career as a defenseman--it's just unbelievable especially at that time. Maybe changed the way defensemen play the game. And watching some of those highlights with Lemieux and Gretzky playing on team Canada back in the day, it seemed like they had a lot of chemistry. Gretzky was feeding Lemieux a lot, so that would be fun to watch.
Scheifele:
I'm going to throw some of my heroes in there. Stevey Y was my favourite player, so I'm going to throw Yzerman out there, I'm going to throw Oatesy, my other hero--
Barzal:
[laughs] Oh my god.
Scheifele:
And then Dale Hawerchuk. Those three guys.
Barzal:
I really liked Datsyuk growing up. I'll throw him, Nik Lidstrom, and maybe Brett Hull. Get a sniper out there.
Best forward for tipping a puck or screening a goalie?
Barzal:
We got Anders Lee on our team so it's a no-brainer for me. Get to see him work in practice just tip pucks, he'll go 15/15 just like nothing. Makes it look easy, when it's not. I feel like Joe Pavelski has the title of best tipper in the league. I'll give it to him.
Kane:
Both of those guys are really good. I played with Anders at the world championships a couple years of ago, and he'd just stand in front of the net, screen the goalie, and guys would just pick their spots, and it was just so tough for the goalie to stop those shots because he was so good in front. I'm going to go with him in front of the net. It's hard to pick against Pavelski. You've seen that play so many times with San Jose--they get it back to Karlsson and Burns, Pavelski's coming through the slot and tips it in. It seems like he's incorporated that and brought that to Dallas as well. He's just really good at finding those open areas and getting a stick on it.
Scheifele:
Landeskog. Colorado. He's had a ton of tip goals against us, I've seen him tip a ton of goals in other games. He's also just such a moose in front of the net. You can't move him, he's strong, he's good at actually screening a goalie too.
Best comic relief on the bench?
Kane:
I'd had some hilarious teammates back in 2010. Guys like Ben Eager and Adam Burish were constantly chirping the other team. They were hilarious, especially Ben Eager. He seemed to have like, so many good chirps. Also, Dustin Byfuglien might be up there as well. He's just hilarious, like, I think even in the middle of games, especially when we were playing Winnipeg and he recently got traded there, he was coming by. He and Quenneville would be chirping each other and laughing and joking around in the middle of an NHL hockey game. He was always a good guy to bring some comic relief.
Scheifele:
Honestly, it's actually with the rules that I can pick Dustin Byfuglien. [laughs] It's gotta be him. He's by far the most relaxed guy in the game. No matter what's going on, no matter how the game's going, he definitely will make a joke and get you going. I could hear from the other side of the bench him yelling at someone, I don't even know who he's yelling at, he could be yelling at a fan, who knows. He's always joking around, so I'm going to go with him.
Barzal:
Anders Lee again. This guy is so funny, whether it's on the ice or off the ice. He's always got a quick one-liner, or something goofy that he says that's really funny at the time. I'd say him for me again.
Scheifele:
Anders Lee better be watching this later. [laughs]
Barzal:
I know, I'm getting some brownie points right now. Oh, or honestly, Jordan Eberle. He's pretty funny, we get into it sometimes too, but he's pretty light-hearted. We go back and forth sometimes. He brings some humour in there.
submitted by hellefuyck to hockey [link] [comments]

Current Standings for the Gilles "Stone Hands" Marotte Memorial Award

As you’ll all remember, the Marotte Award is given to the NHL player (at any position) in a season who took the most shots on goal while failing to score even once. The all-time record is held by namesake Gilles Marotte, the legendary Chicago Blackhawks Defenseman, set in the 67-68 season at 154 shots.
It’s important to remember that to win this award, a player has to show a remarkable set of traits that isn’t just being bad at scoring goals. This isn’t just an award that says “this player is terrible”. Usually if a player is terrible at scoring goals they are aware of it and so is their coach and they don’t take very many shots.
But the winner of this award either doesn’t know or doesn’t care that he can’t score goals. He keeps shooting like he’s a top 6 forward anyway. But a player who is just generally awful at everything will usually get sat, scratched or demoted to the minors. So to win this award, a player has to be good enough in every other aspect of his game that he can still get NHL ice time.
This player is good enough to keep getting NHL ice time, and good enough that his coach keeps letting him take shots, and crazy enough to keep taking those shots even after all this failure. And bad enough that not a single shot goes in.
Following is today's updated standings for the Marotte award as of right now, a little past the halfway point of the season (not all games have finished today so these numbers are subject to change).
1st place - Charlie McAvoy (BOS) - 55 shots
One of the top Dmen in Boston, he's been getting plenty of shots on goal. In fact he has just one fewer shot than his teammate Zdeno Chara. He's also registered an impressive 13 assists through the 40 games he's played so far. He's likely to continue to get ice time due to those assists, a decent +/-, plus the fact that the only way young players like McAvoy get better is with experience. If the puck gods do not smile on him and he ends the season with zero goals, he is a strong front runner for the Marotte award. This is only McAvoy's 3rd full season in the NHL, and he got exactly 7 goals in both of his previous seasons. He will likely continue to get lots of shots and as long as he can stay out of the goal column, he's the man to beat.
2nd place - David Savard (CBJ) - 52 shots
Savard is a little bit of a surprise to see on this list. Unlike McAvoy, he's a seasoned veteran of the league, having played his first NHL season in 2011-2012. In seasons in which he played at least 65 games, he has always scored at least 4 goals. So far he is on pace for zero. His 7 assists aren't bad, and he's likely to continue to get NHL ice time. He is a contender for the Marotte award, but if I was a betting man he wouldn't be my pick to win it.
3rd place - Brett Kulak (MTL) - 51 shots
Last season Kulak put up 6 goals, which was a career high. That may have been a fluke, and his previous less than impressive career goal totals might be the norm for him. His best asset for winning this award is simply his lack of goal scoring success over his career. What could end up costing him this award though is how often he gets healthy scratched. He's only played 31 games this season, and has cleared waivers multiple times in his career. He will have a hard time beating out the other contenders if he can't get consistent ice time. His 3 assists and -8 +/- rating aren't really advocating for him to get more ice time either.
4th place - Jordie Benn (VAN) - 50 shots
Benn set a career high in goals scored and games played last season at 5 and 81. He's never had a 0 goal season when he's played at least half the season, he always manages to squeeze at least a couple in before the season is over. Reasons he could win it all this year include the fact that he's 32 and could be entering a decline, the fact that he gets decently consistent ice time compared to some of the other contenders on this list, and his long career of never having impressive goal totals. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he stays in contention before removing himself with a late season goal or two.
Honorable mentions:
Nick Jensen (WSH) - 42 shots
Currently sitting in a tie for 5th place, Nick Jensen actually managed to win the Marotte award in the 17-18 season with an impressive 107 shots. That's the most shots on goal for a Marotte winner since 02-03 winner Robyn Regehr. While he's not currently on pace for that torrid 100+ shot rate, his career 6 goals over 253 games makes him a candidate to watch. He might not outshoot the other contenders, but he's one of the most likely to fail to score this season. He also gets surprisingly impressive ice time for a guy with only 2 assists. The one big thing he has going against him is that he's on a very good team in Washington. When your teammates are as good as his are, sometimes you might get credited with a goal that one of your teammates did all the real work for.
Patrick Russell (EDM) - 39 shots
Former Oiler Tobias Rieder won this award last season, setting the record for a forward with 90 shots on goal. Only 5 forwards have ever even won the award going back to 1959, and Russell currently stands the best chance of any forward of carrying on Rieder's legacy and bringing the Marotte back home to Edmonton. Things he has going for him is that he has never scored an NHL goal before and his lack of experience in the NHL might mean he doesn't quite have what it takes to be an NHL scorer. Things he has going against him is that he's not getting as many games played as some other contenders at only 30 so far this season, and when he does play if he gets put on a line with McDavid and/or Draisaitl for even a single game there's a very good chance he breaks that zero streak. He also only sits tied for 9th on this list, so will need to pass up the 8 guys in front of him in shots while remaining scoreless or will need them to self-eliminate by scoring a goal.
The season has another 40ish games left to play for most teams, so we could see these standings swing wildly. I am including a list of all previous winners of the Marotte Award in the comments below for reference.
Remember, if you enjoy these posts and want to honor the memory of Gilles Marotte, consider donating to the LustGarten Foundation, a charity that helps work towards a cure for pancreatic cancer.
https://www.lustgarten.org/donate/
submitted by Frnklfrwsr to hockey [link] [comments]

[COMETS HARVEST] Utica Comets (31-21-3-2) vs. Rochester Americans (31-18-4-5)

THE COMETS HARVEST

 
The Utica Comets are inside the final 20 games of the season, and holy guacamole, do they have a month in store for them!
 
Two 3-in-4's to start the month, then a Tuesday game that immediately follows a double-header weekend. Afterwards, it's a triple header, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, mid-month, concluding with two more 3-in-4's at the close of March and start of April.
 
Did I mention that only nine of those thirteen games are against divisional opponents? Meaning, the Comets can't afford to slip up anywhere this month. A losing streak at any point this month could mean a freefall out of a Calder Playoff spot.
 
Hot off the heels of a disappointing drubbing by the Laval Rocket, the Comets will start this month against the North Divisions, second-place, Rochester Americans, an all too familiar foe of the farms.
 
The Comets' last game against the Amerks was an interesting one. Despite getting thoroughly out-attempted at 5-on-5, the Comets managed to earn two big points via the shootout.
There is an asterisk on the game, in that, the Comets arguably should have won in regulation. The referees missed a blatant trip against Sven Baertschi as he drove with the puck towards the empty-net. The non-call denied the Comets an automatic empty-netter goal-for, and on the ensuing 6v5, the Amerks managed to score in the final 28 seconds to force extra-time.
 
By no means did the Comets play a clean game against the Amerks. Getting out-attempted more than two-to-one across all-strength-situations means the team was basically in survival mode all game.
 
Out-attempted two-to-one is the common thread between all of the Comets/Amerks matchups this season.
 
Out of their seven-game head-to-head this season, the Comets have out-attempted the Amerks at 5-on-5, wait for it,
...once
 
No surprise, the only thing that has been separating wins from losses in this seven-game series, is goaltending.
 
The Comets are already seeing what can happen if they ride their goalie too hard. Mikey Di Pietro was making his ninth straight start for the Comets against Laval, pairing that with a blatantly lethargic Comets team in front of him, was a breeding ground for disaster.
 
Perhaps the past few days off has allowed the Comets to refill the stamina bars. Well, at least we hope they have because with two teams nipping at their heels for the third and fourth-place playoff spot, they can't afford any more performances like they had against Laval. Its Crunch time. But not literally Crunch time, because it's actually Amerk time ...you know what, you get the idea! Let's get into tonight's matchup!
 
THE STARTING LINEUP
 
LW C RW
Baertschi (#47) Camper (#19) Boucher (#24)
Lind (#13) Hamilton (#36) Bailey (#95)
LeBlanc (#3 Stevens (#16) Perron (#27)
Malone (#17) Graovac (#44) Stevenson (#26)
 
LD RD
Petgrave (#22) Rafferty (#25)
Sautner (#6) Blujus (#8)
Teves (#4) Eliot (#52)
 
G
Michael Di Pietro
 
INJURY REPORT -- -- -- -- --
Vinny Arseneau (done for the season) David Pope (concussion) Lukas Jasek (lower-body) Carter Bancks (lower-body) Olli Juolevi (hip soreness) Jonah Gadjovich (illness)
 
Healthy Scratches
Nikolay Goldobin (veteran)
 
So Stefan LeBlanc gets to slide back into the lineup, and impressively, moves into the top-9 alongside Stevens and Goldobin. Like the makeup of the line, a strong forechecking presence from LeBlanc could be a great compliment.
 
Goldobin gets the veteran scratch, which, I'm sure, is delightful for him.
 
Pretty surprised that Eliot and Teves can barely crack a healthy Comets roster, but when the Comets are down two d-men, they get paired together. It makes me question if its a matter of trust with Trent Cull, or if its a matter of skill. Both Teves and Eliot have looked perfectly adequate in the AHL this season. Obviously, when they are healthy, the Comets' third pair is a tough spot in the lineup to crack. It makes me wonder why Eliot and Teves weren't sent down to Kalamazoo to play out the entire season to get ample ice-time.
 
Have to feel for Olli Juolevi, man, injuries have just completely fucked up this kids' career path. Hip soreness for the second/third time this season is a bad look.

1st period

 
Comets in their Away whites
 
 

The score at the end of the 1st period: 1-0 Comets

 
That was a really fast-paced period of hockey, with zero penalties issued and only a few couple timeouts.
Comets still struggle mightily against the speed and size of the Amerks squad. The Comets do try to match the physicality brought by the Amerks, but, as you could see in a couple of those streamables, Amerks play a heavy game that even the veterans and toughest Comets players can't match.
Comets still electing to play that heavy four-deep in the o-zone style that gives opponents a jarring number of odd-man rushes-against.
 

2nd Period

 
 

The score at the end of the 2nd period: 1-1 Tie

 
Yikes, that was a rough period of hockey displayed by the Comets. After 40-minutes of action, the Comets find themselves getting outshot 30 to 17. Rochester is a volume team, who uses their speed and size to open up space for shots on goal. Utica is an opportunistic team, who uses their speed and vision to capitalize on errors for scoring chances. Unfortunately, Utica's approach to generating offense requires them to actually be in the offensive zone. Rewatch that streamable of the Comets standing still as the Amerks generate shots towards the net. The Comets fade the second they don't regain the puck in their zone.
 

3rd period

 
 

Final Score: 3-1 Utica Comets

 

Scoresheet

 
Period Team Goalscorer Primary assist helper type
1st UTI Stefan LeBlanc John Stevens -- 5v5
2nd ROC Taylor Leier Jean-Sebastien Dea Jacob Bryson PPG
3rd UTI Sven Baertschi Carter Camper Ashton Sautner 5v5
3rd UTI Tyler Graovac Justin Bailey Brogan Rafferty EN
 

Takeaways

 
 

Comets Three Stars

 
The Comets Trajectory?
 
Comets return this weekend for a double-header road trip against David Ayers' Charlotte Checkers, I won't be on recap duty for the Friday game, however, as I'll be meeting up with family whom I haven't seen in over four years! So expect another Comets Harvest, for Saturday's game only!
 
As always, if you want to read up on this Comets Harvest or the 2018-19 Farmies editions, you can find them all at my Comets Harvest Blog here
submitted by THRILLHOIAF to canucks [link] [comments]

Breadispain's NHL DFS Primer 2019-20

The first (preseason) DFS content is available tomorrow on Draftkings! It's time to get back into the swing of things.
Introduction
Many people commented or PMed me last season saying that my posts helped them win more money, more frequently. I know I personally missed out on some big paydays by ignoring my own advice. (Sigh.) I’ve been playing DFS hockey since 2014 and have become gradually more invested in it over the past few seasons. I started playing $1 single entry tournaments and I’ve been hooked since my first entry placed 47/3448. You’ll generally find me in single entry tournaments on Draftkings and whichever site has the better tournament payout on the larger Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday slates.
I have the same username on Draftkings, Fanduel and Rotogrinders if you’re looking for me elsewhere.
Disclaimer
I would recommend that you only play DFS as a form of entertainment. Hockey is a volatile sport where anything can happen any given night: the underdog could win, your starting goaltender could be injured, etc. While under no circumstances should you hold me liable should you lose, please take me into consideration if you do happen to come upon a big payday as a result of my advice ;)
I’d advise restraint during the preseason and month of October while lines and systems are settling and the sample size is small. The whole point of using data to build your lineups is to reduce randomness, so your bankroll should be saved for when the league is more predictable. However, if you’re a degenerate like me, you likely have enough data about your personal habits to know that is unlikely.
Slates
The NHL schedule dictates larger slates on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with fewer games on days between. Larger slates tend to come with higher prize pools funded by more entries. Since a larger slate means more players are on the ice, that generally decreases specific player ownership. Though that increases your chance of your players having lower ownership if they go off, it also makes it more difficult to pick players that score more than the rest of the field, since there’s a higher probability more goals are scored. (And that’s what makes it fun!)
While there are also all day, afternoon, evening and late night slates, as well as Showdown and whatever else have been introduced lately, the payout for these contests tends to be less overall for the same entry fees, while the difficulty of winning them is comparable, so I tend to avoid them with few exceptions.
Contest Type
Whether you’re playing cash games (50/50, multipliers, head-to-head), satellites, or GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments will greatly affect your strategy. In GPP’s you’re looking for highest upside to get the most overall points possible to win the tournament. In cash, you’re looking for the highest floor to ensure you’re above the fold. In general, play cash games for security and GPP’s for the thrill.
I’m sure there are a lot of pros that play cash games regularly because you can easily double your wager any given night, which at minimum helps pad your bankroll to cover any GPP losses. I personally don’t like the upside when weighing risk/reward and therefore prefer to play GPP’s almost exclusively. However, cash strategies can also translate to smaller tournaments because you don’t need as much variance to set yourself apart from other lineups.
Single-Entry vs Multi-Entry
Daily fantasy hockey is always pitching itself as a game of skill while trying to distance itself from gambling for legal reasons. I contend that single entry tournaments are the truest test of skill here because each entry holds the same weight. These are my preferred contests by far, though there are rarely more than two any given night with a payout worth the ticket price.
While you technically have a better chance of placing first by maxing your entries in GPP’s every night, it’s impractical for most players, especially the novice. You can see in the Draftkings Results Database that even seasoned veterans rarely employ this strategy as well. For what it’s worth, some of my biggest paydays have also been ones where I made the fewest amount of entries. Your mileage may vary.
Rake
Rake is simply the house cut taken by whichever site you’re gambling on. Along with entry fees it has increased in recent years and stabilized around 9-13% depending on the contest. If all things are considered equal, target contests with a lower rake, as more prizes are being paid out to the contestants. That also means GPP’s and satellites that are not filling up before the deadline can offer you a slight advantage.
Bankroll Management
You should care about how much money you’re gambling because no one else is going to. Bankroll management doesn’t factor much into my decision making simply due to the scale I operate at, so I’ll only offer this advice: winnings are not winnings until you withdraw them, and only if you haven’t deposited more than that originally. It boggles my mind when people praise themselves for winning a grand after dumping two the month before. Set an amount you’re comfortable losing and don’t deposit more than that when it’s gone. There are free bankroll trackers available online if you want an overview of how you’re doing, such as Daily Fantasy Nerd, as well as restrictions on each site if needed.
Point Systems
This whole post was based around the 2018-19 point system for both Fanduel and Draftkings. However, it was Recently Announced that adjustments would be made to the Draftkings point system this coming season. Here’s what you need to know:
Prior to this year, there used to be relative parity between the Fanduel and Draftkings scoring systems. Aside a few discrepancies, like Fanduel awarding minor powerplay point bonuses, Draftkings accounting for goaltender points and hat trick bonuses, and a slight variation between block and shot values, Fanduel scores were basically 4x Draftking ones and the only significant differences were salary discrepancies and lineup construction.
No longer. Not only have the Draftkings points been bumped up overall but their relative values have changed. A goaltender win is now worth less relative to a goal. While it used to take 15 saves to make up a goal, it will now take about 12. There will also be two points awarded for overtime losses.
There are other minor changes to the basic scoring system, like assists and shots on goal are worth slightly less relative to a goal, but the real change will be in the new bonus system. Here you will see an additional three points awarded for hat tricks, 35+ saves, 5+ shots, 3+ blocks and 3+ point games. That 3 point modifier also stacks with the hat trick bonus, which is, frankly, ridiculous. This will significantly change the worth of playmakers, with two assists (10 points) now being worth less than a player with five shots on goal (10.5 points) without hitting twine.
Draftkings claims this makes the game “more exciting” but right now it just seems like it’ll be more random. I fail to see how anyone that regularly plays DFS with any volume benefits from this change, outside of possibly drawing in more inexperienced entries and increasing the overall player and prize pool. The NHL players gaining these bonuses are, for the most part, already the top performers in those categories. Additional incentives are hardly necessary to have Burns or Ovechkin any given night. For others, certain punt plays could see a significant boost, though it makes little sense to me why two blocked shots would be worth 2.6 points but a third bumps that up to 6.9.
Regardless, I still see linestacking being advantageous with these changes.
Linestacking
Outside of choosing a winning goaltender, using players on the same line is the most basic DFS advice you can give a beginner. Since there are so few goals scored in a hockey game and most of those goals correlate with an assist, you typically want to pick players with good linemates. The odds of stacking two corresponding lines and getting multi-point games that win you money is far greater than selecting six players who have standout individual performances on any given night.
Depending on whether you play on Fanduel or Draftkings will determine what kind of strategies are available to you, as there are tighter salary constraints on Draftkings but looser restrictions. For example, on Fanduel you’re capped at 4 players from each team. On Draftkings, you only need 3 different teams represented, so you can technically play the entire top six from one team instead. Despite that, you cannot do the 4-4-1 stack available on Fanduel, where you pick two lines with their corresponding defensemen and a goaltender. Instead, you have to opt for a 4-3-1 stack, either using the utility position for a punt play (typically not ideal) or alternating one of the defensemen from a different team (preferable).
I don’t like to break up line stacks because I’ve been playing long enough to see it come back to haunt me, but there’s always an argument for dropping an underperforming third wheel or due to salary constraints.
Powerplay Correlation
Roughly 20% of NHL goals are scored with the man advantage. Though not strictly necessary, players who have top powerplay minutes are more likely to score goals. If an entire line has full powerplay correlation, even better. There are few teams worth targeting for a powerplay stack where the players are not also linemates. However, last season the Lightning, Panthers, Sharks, Pens, Flames, Leafs and Caps all had great powerplay success with players combined from two or more lines. This can make a decent contrarian play against a weak penalty kill team or simply to deviate from the standard chalk on a smaller slate.
Percentage of Ownership
Generally speaking, whichever team(s) has the highest Vegas odds to win, and especially a high oveunder, will also be the favored teams, or chalk, for DFS. Since only 20% of GPP entries will profit and the chalk lines are likely to garner 20%+ ownership, if that line goes off it could break the slate (you’ll need that line to win).
Just because a team is a favorite to win does not mean they’re your safest option. Primarily because there are no safe options, it’s also crucial to maximize your success by differentiating your lineups from others. Use Vegas odds and “expert” predictions as a guideline for what you think other people will be targeting, and keep this in mind when building your own lineups. Looking for the lines that could produce but be underlooked (and therefore under-owned) is necessary for a big payday.
The larger the slate, the more likely you can profit from chalk. Likewise, the smaller the slate, the higher upside for contrarian options. On a 12 game slate there are likely to be several favorites, decreasing the overall ownership percentage of any given line. On a three or four game slate, more people are likely to gravitate to one or two lines. Whether you can actually afford to stack these lines together is another matter entirely. Sometimes the chalk lines are so prohibitively expensive that you have to make great sacrifices elsewhere in your lineup.
Salary Constraints
I don’t fully understand how either Fanduel and Draftkings come up with their player salaries because they often feel arbitrary. Kase was priced at floor on Fanduel for weeks, despite putting up solid production on the first line for the Ducks. There were thousands of dollars difference in Chabot’s salary when he was on a tear as well. Some players, like Shattenkirk, appeared to have inflated salaries solely due to name recognition. Occasionally there are straight up errors, like Keith Yandle was priced at floor by mistake for almost a week on Draftkings last January. Suffice to say that it’s worth analyzing the value of each player on a line when stacking, as well as exploring individual salary trends, as players are often propped up by things that don’t translate to DFS production.
It’s rare that you’ll pick two lines that fit so comfortably you can afford top defensemen and a goaltender as well. If you have the salary left over to flesh out your lineup with Burns, Letang and Vasilevskiy, it’s hard to make an argument not to. More likely you’re going to be looking for pivots, a line that has a value player that brings down the total cost, or ultimately sacrificing somewhere in your lineup.
A solid pivot for me was likely an outlier getting top powerplay time (ex. Pirri), an individual performer on a depth line (Ex. Donato; Perreault), an unrecognized rookie (ex. Svechnikov, Chabot), someone stepping in for an injury in a lineup, or a cheap defenseman with offensive upside (ex. Ekholm).
It’s also not uncommon for a star to have less talented linemates. Sometimes that artificially inflates the cost of those linemates, but sometimes it makes the line a decent budget option. You’ll likely find these players alongside McDavid, Matthews, Crosby or Stamkos, for example, when their lines are not loaded with their corresponding Kucherovs or Draisaitls.
Some lines are so prohibitively expensive they’re virtually unstackable at all, though these lines are also typically matchup proof. Because of the sacrifice required, these lines are often worth targeting on a larger slate or against tougher opposition where they’ll fetch lower ownership but still have the potential for a hat trick or more. Refer to COL1, BOS1, TBL2, etc.
Contrarian Play
Contrarian here simply means rejecting the consensus favorite, but it’s often confused with simply picking a line from a bad team to go against the grain. Note there’s rarely a good argument to pick a contrarian goaltender, outside of high upside for their salary. Keep in mind that Vegas odds, really even the best teams in the NHL, are roughly 60-65% likely to accurate project as a winner, and that winning alone is not always enough to make a goaltender valuable because they might not see a lot of shots.
So when should you play contrarian? One of my favorite contrarian options on Fanduel specifically is when a line’s players have the “wrong” position. This happens when a player was previously playing out of position, and Fanduel is notorious for being slow to respond to these changes. Since it’s more difficult to stack a CCW or WWW line, these picks are naturally contrarian because they’re harder to fit into a lineup.
Another option might be targeting secondary scoring on depth lines. Not only is this an option for affordability that’s easier to stack, but it’s a decent pivot off the chalk for a team that’s a favorite to win. It’s worth noting that a team playing on home ice has the advantage of last change and therefore can choose their deployment. If you’re targeting against a team with a solid shutdown line on home ice, a secondary scoring line might end up getting better deployment and production. Likewise, if you know a line will be forced to play a shutdown role, you might want to consider alternatives. This is called line matching and may differ on a nightly basis.
One option that’s often overlooked is a game stack. That is, picking one line from either teams in one game. When two teams are porous defensively or have a historic rivalry, chances are if a goal is scored early in the first period the ice could rapidly open up and the game will become a shooting gallery.
Finally, though this option is restricted only to Draftkings, you can stack two lines from the same team with each other. This could be the entire top six or a full five man powerplay stack. I would reserve this option only for high powered offenses against the weakest of opposition though.
Defensemen
I often consider defensemen an extension of linestacking, but in reality that’s not always feasible. Though there are technically points awarded for blocked shots, even the top shot blockers aren’t very DFS relevant on shot blocking alone, unless they are positioned against a high shot volume team and come at a reasonable price tag. It is worth considering a high floor from reliable shooters and/or blockers when looking for value if you’re stacking two expensive lines, especially in cash games. While it’s not uncommon to see rosters where people have two depth defenders squeezed into their lineup due to salary constraints, know that you’ll typically need at least another goal from your forwards to compensate for the backend unless they happen to get a lucky bounce.
There are only around forty defensemen capable of regularly generating at a half point per game every season. With so few of these players available any given night, their salaries are typically higher than a forward with a similar point pace. The most prolific point producers are often unattainable for this reason. If an inexpensive defenseman finds his way onto the first powerplay unit, you can guarantee he will see high ownership. It’s almost always recommended to upgrade your defensemen if your salary allows.
Goaltenders
More important than any other statistic is whether or not your goalie is starting, so make sure to confirm that before puck drop. Daily Faceoff is the defacto place to verify the starting goaltender for each team. It’s not infallible, but it’s the best resource available without refreshing Twitter constantly for updates.
While it’s rare this will haunt you, it’s important to note that the win is only attributed to the goalie that’s on the ice when the deciding goal is scored, and that’s not necessarily who’s in the net at the end of the game. This is especially pertinent if you’re considering playing preseason games, where there’s often split duty between two prospects.
Even the worst goaltender is going to take up a sizeable chunk of your salary cap. However, unless they’re pulled from the game, even a losing goalie at least generally has some positive impact on your overall score. On the flipside, a winning goaltender can easily be your MVP every night. That’s a lot of pressure on picking the right player in this position, and therefore it’s often the hardest.
Without consideration for quality of opponent, even the best goaltender on the first seeded team has generally won less than 70% of their games that season. Picking a winning team is already a gamble, let alone the challenge of picking a winner that also faces a lot of shots without giving up goals. Because of this, I don’t really have a strong inclination to any particular strategy here. Some nights I’ll single out a small handful of goalies I think will perform well and either correlate them with my stacks or disperse them based on their salaries. If I’m only targeting a few lines that night, maybe I’ll run the same stacks with several goaltenders and hope to see them all dispersed in the top fifty. Other times I’ll ride the same goaltender for every lineup in a boom or bust scenario. In any case, I would seriously caution against being contrarian here without knowing there’s high upside (the goaltender is cheapest on the slate and at least has a chance of winning, say).
Recent/Historical Performance
I’m not going to lie, I use DailyFantasyNerd to compare shooting and scoring trends amongst players, and I’m always dialled in to the hot hands as much as anyone. However, I feel like people might put too much weight on recent performance and too little on historical data and sustainability.
There’s no question that sometimes players just go on hot or cold streaks, and betting on a player who’s in a slump to miraculously break it that night is equal parts realistic and gambler’s fallacy, as much as banking on the hot hand continuing his run would be. If you’re willing to do further digging, it’s worth taking into account whether a player is seeing a change in deployment or ice time. Consider whether they’re shooting more or less and what percentage of those shots are converting. Also note the quality of competition in the previous games. If you’re not doing any additional research whatsoever, just know these stats are usually shown as an average over the last five games and can be heavily skewed by one good or bad game, or even an injury.
If I only have time for minimal research any given night, without fail I am checking ShrpSports and CBC Sports for the team matchup history. Providing other factors align, I will often trust historical data and narrative games over a lot of other metrics. Now, I’m often criticised for putting weight on either of these things whatsoever, but I’ll still argue that it’s foolish to ignore it.
Obviously rosters change from season to season, and sometimes very dramatically. You should definitely take offseason changes into account. However, there are some teams or specific players that consistently (and often unexpectedly) have another team’s number, and rivalries are sure to bring out the best of both teams despite what fancy stats and standings indicate. Because of this, I tend to look at the outcome of the previous two season’s play and include any games played this season, with a greater weight put on teams that matchup more frequently. Especially if there is a team that shouldn’t be victorious that’s been on a relatively consistent win streak versus their opponent, I’m making a note of the upside from their upset potential, both to avoid picking the opposing goaltender and to consider linestacks that might otherwise be overlooked. I generally ignore playoff performances though because the stakes are higher and roles tend to be different.
It also might seem silly to place any weight on things like personal milestones, birthdays or playing against your former team, but hockey players are human, and more often than not people step up to prove something to themselves or others, or help their teammates achieve personal goals.
Advanced Stats
I’ll consider advanced stats for our purposes as anything that isn’t already tracked for DFS points that might actually affect them. So, standard stats would be shots, goals, assists and blocks, and advanced stats would be metrics that affect that. Not all good hockey players are fantasy relevant, and therefore many advanced stats aren’t a good predictor of DFS production. I will say that advanced stats strongly suggested that Tampa Bay were not nearly as good as their record suggested headed into the playoffs. Either way, it’s worth understanding these terms as they’re becoming part of the narrative, and while player and puck tracking will soon be the norm, you can garner a slight edge over the competition with a bit of manual work if you’re so inclined. In any case, none of these stats should be considered in a vacuum, and hockey isn’t a science in that you’ll accurately predict an outcome via advanced stats alone, so don’t go crazy looking for a pattern that probably isn’t there.
You can find all these stats (and much more) listed below at Corsica Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Shooting Percentage
Shooting percentage is predictive of whether on a player’s ice performance is sustainable. It’s most useful as a comparison to league and individual averages weighed against current performance to determine whether it’s an outlier. Simply, whether a player is slumping or over-performing.
Scoring Chances
These are shots taken where goals are likely to be scored, weighed based on where on the ice they’re taken from. It’s fallible, but it’s one of the strongest predictors currently available. If a player has a high shooting percentage but is also taking high danger shots, it stands to reason why they’re converting into goals. It’s worth noting when a line is generating high danger scoring opportunities without producing, as they’ll likely fly under the radar in the meantime.
Expected Goals FoAgainst (xGF/xGA)
Expected goals is a measurement of unblocked shots that register on net in the offensive zone. xGF/xGA doesn’t have a strong correlation with actual goals scored, which seems easily explained because it doesn’t take into account individual talent or scoring probability. While there’s a chance any puck thrown toward the net could lead to a goal, without taking into account the shot quality or where it’s generated from, I don’t place much weight on this personally.
Expected Save Percentage (xSv%)
This stat takes into account shot quality (though not shooter quality) and quantity and ranks the goaltender against the league average performance. Again, this isn’t necessarily a fair indicator of how well the goaltender performed. It is worth considering for how well the team’s defense has played in front of him though, so it can be used in conjunction with other stats when picking a goalie for the win and save upside.
Corsi and Fenwick
Corsi is likely the most recognizable name in advanced stats. This was devised to account for goaltender workload and adjusts for every time they have to be in position to make a save, so it takes into account shot attempts that are blocked or go wide of the net. It’s sister stat, Fenwick, is identical, aside excluding blocked shots. >50% Corsi/Fenwick indicates more shots on net than against. Neither take into account shot quality. Therefore, rather than using positive metrics to determine whether a team will score, I consider this a determining factor for diminishing the opposition from scoring, as they’ll possess the puck less often. This is especially worth considering for linematching.
Note that Corsi/Fenwick will be influenced by zone starts. A player that gets more faceoffs in the offensive zone is more likely to put pucks on net than they are to have shots against theirs, and vice versa. A player that has negative percentage and >50% offensive zone starts represents poor ice performance.
PDO/SPSV%
This statistic is nothing more than shooting percentage added to the save percentage. Since this will always total 100% league-wide, variance higher than 100 supposedly indicates luck, or that a team is not as good as they seem, and anything lower indicates they may be better than they appear. Though this stat supposedly measures luck it can also indicate a significant skill gap (Kucherov and Matthews are dominant in this category). A line generating many high danger scoring chances without conversion should have a low PDO that regresses to the mean.
There are more advanced stats available than these, as well as derivatives of each, though I think this is enough of an overview for daily fantasy purposes. If there’s something you’ve found to be useful though, feel free to drop it in the comments.
Lineup Construction
Now that you have narrowed down your chosen lines based on which teams you want to target and have a handful of goaltenders and defensemen/utility players selected, you’re ready to construct your lineups.
This will likely be a very individual process based on system comfortability and how many entries you’re submitting. The default will be simply to load the corresponding app or website and do everything entirely on your device or browser, if not supplementing with pen and paper. Perfectly acceptable. However, this would be both cumbersome and time consuming for MME, so there’s also a bulk upload option available with .csv spreadsheets. This might be the approach you take if you’re using an optimizer too.
Optimizers
Free optimizers are basically designed to squeeze out every dollar per average point production or projection, which is very much not what I prefer to build my lineups on. Though there are better options if you’re willing to shell out some money, I don’t play enough volume to warrant a subscription and prefer a more hands-on approach anyway. I would highly recommend checking out Linestar though. I am not affiliated with them in any way, but they seem under-recognized in the market and are easily the best optimizer available for hockey in my opinion, utilizing a lot of the criteria I’ve mentioned here, including historical data, stacking and advanced stats, etc. which many other optimizers omit. There’s also an option for a brief trial based on ad views.
Line Stacker
I personally use a custom line stacker that I hobbled together with spreadsheets and the downloadable .csv files from Draftkings and Fanduel. You can access it here along with the basic instructions for how it works. Someone always comes along and messes it up somehow, so I would recommend downloading it to your desktop and using Excel to play around with it.
Late Night Swaps
Rosters lock when the first game of the night is slated to begin. If there are games on your slate starting later than that, keep in mind that changes can and do happen. Check for last minute line changes or which goaltender takes the ice even if things seemed certain at the morning skate. The worst thing that can happen is watching your first place entry plummet because it was a late reveal that someone has the flu and isn’t on the bench.
Additional Resources
Breadispain’s FREE Fanduel and Draftkings Line Stacker v1.1: My own hobbled together line-stacking tool for up to 24 lines. I don't know of a similar tool available right now and I find it handier than an optimizer. There’s also a rudimentary salary comparison tool between Draftkings and Fanduel implemented if that interests you.
ShrpSports: See how well teams have performed against each other historically.
CBC Sports: maybe it’s because I’m Canadian, but I think the CBC does the best overview of the slate with easy access to the latest game data.
Daily Faceoff: Your best source for lineups, injury news and starting goaltender information.
Daily Fantasy Nerd: I use this daily for an overview of who’s hot/cold in the last five games for shots on goal, ice time and points, though it’s worth making a deeper dive to see whether those points came from a single outlier game.
Corsica Hockey and Natural Stat Trick: I use both of these sites for advanced stats, and occasionally the latter for line-matching data and post-game analysis.
Linestar: Linestar comes closest to developing a DFS tool that actually correlates with how I build my lineups. They offer everything from analysis on value plays, recent performance in varying metrics, historical data vs opponent, change in salary, salary disparity between platforms, and much more.
Results DB: see the best and optimal lineups from previous nights and who came out ahead.
Awesemo, Rotogrinders and DFS Army: Since these are the more popular sites, I tend to review their postings and livestreams when time permits on the big slates for anything I might’ve overlooked and to get a better idea of where other people might be targeting. I personally place more weight on boggslite and Homercles, for whatever that’s worth to you.
Summary
It’s my opinion that Vegas odds and expert predictions should be used as a guide for chalk more than what you should target. It won’t take research to determine that good players with ideal linemates against weak opponents are more likely to score. Don’t ignore narrative games and historical performances. Advanced stats can be both helpful and distracting. Ideally you’ll always stack two or more players who are correlated on the powerplay with one or both of your defensemen, on teams with high GF/G and/or PP%, against teams with low CF% and/or a goaltender with high GAA, ideally with a low PK%. Consider whether these players have been under or overperforming and have any chemistry together. Players who shoot more often increase their point floor and probability to score. It’s advantageous to be on home ice for linematching but it’s rarely a dealbreaker. Round this out with a goaltender with a high expected SA/G and low GAA that fits within your salary constraints. Alternatively, build from the goaltender out or just hamfist whomever works.
And that’s always easier said than done.
Best of luck.
submitted by breadispain to dfsports [link] [comments]

Wrestling Observer Rewind ★ Jul. 16, 2001

Going through old issues of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter and posting highlights in my own words. For anyone interested, I highly recommend signing up for the actual site at f4wonline and checking out the full archives.
PREVIOUS YEARS ARCHIVE:
1991199219931994199519961997199819992000
1-1-2001 1-8-2001 1-15-2001 1-22-2001
1-29-2001 2-5-2001 2-12-2001 2-19-2001
2-26-2001 3-5-2001 3-12-2001 3-19-2001
3-26-2001 4-2-2001 4-9-2001 4-16-2001
4-23-2001 4-30-2001 5-7-2001 5-14-2001
5-21-2001 5-28-2001 6-4-2001 6-11-2001
6-18-2001 6-25-2001 7-2-2001 7-9-2001
  • WWF has pretty much abandoned all its plans for reviving WCW and instead revived ECW and had them join the invasion angle. Adding ECW to the fold was a last minute decision made partly in response to the disastrous WCW match on Raw last week. Prior to this, the original plan had been for WCW to have some exposure on WWF TV, do some inter-promotional matches at the upcoming Invasion PPV, and then an angle would be done the next night on Raw with Vince and Linda McMahon having a "divorce hearing" and splitting everything down the middle. Vince would lose Raw to Linda, who would in turn give it to Shane, and Raw would then become the WCW show. The week after would have been a draft, so that WCW could take some of the WWF's big names to help carry the brand. From there, WCW and WWF would be kept apart. WCW would began touring regularly in October and have its first PPV in October as well. Meanwhile, WWF would continue on Smackdown with their own PPVs and eventually, once WCW had fully established itself as a strong brand, they would come back together for more inter-promotional matches.
WATCH: ECW joins the Invasion angle (filmed on a potato, sorry)
  • That was the original plan. So what happened? Well the whole angle has been botched from the start anyway. But the horrible crowd reaction on Raw last week, plus similar reactions to WCW stars at house shows this past week, pretty much torpedoed everything. WWF officials were stunned by the amount of negative reaction to the WCW brand from WWF fans. Dave says WWF fans have been trained to hate WCW for years and it all came to a head on Raw. It was even worse on Smackdown but you wouldn't know from watching it because they edited the crowd audio before it aired, which they couldn't do with the live Raw. Also, as of press time, the Invasion PPV is 2 weeks away and isn't sold out yet. It should be sold out or close to it by the time the show gets here, but for the first big inter-promotional show of WWF vs. WCW, the tickets didn't move nearly as fast as they'd hoped (they turn Austin babyface again a week beforehand and the PPV ends up doing huge numbers but we'll get there). Dave says it's hard to fathom how such a surefire moneymaking angle has been bungled so badly, although part of it is clearly the lack of big WCW stars and WWF's refusal to spend big money to get them.
  • So they started spit-balling ideas to save the angle. Dave says things got so crazy and so many wild ideas were tossed around that there was actually serious discussion about bringing in Eric Bischoff. (Can you imagine?!) One source claimed there was even plans in place for Bischoff to come in for just a short-term angle, work a match with Vince, kick off the WCW thing, and then be gone, but that Bischoff shot down the idea. Bischoff himself denies that he was ever even approached about it and that he would have turned it down even if they had offered (I believe he has since admitted that yes, he was approached). Either way, the idea was at least kicked around. Ultimately, they settled on reviving ECW (with Stephanie McMahon in charge) and combining it with WCW. The best news coming out of the whole thing is that it let Paul Heyman cut some great promos on Raw and Smackdown and Dave says his kind of realism and promos are exactly what this angle needs if it's going to succeed because out of everyone on the roster, Paul Heyman is the guy who can probably get it over. But the depth of WCW star power is killing it.
  • Scrapping the idea of reviving WCW as its own brand creates a whole new set of problems. Most of the 24 wrestlers that WWF acquired from WCW haven't even appeared on TV yet and if WCW isn't going to be its own brand, most of those guys may be out of luck. They were all lower card guys anyway and if WWF doesn't need to fill a second roster, that puts them in a shitty spot. The number of well-paying, full-time wrestling jobs in the United States is currently at its lowest point since World War II so there's a lot of young, talented cruiserweight-type guys that WWF picked up who may be out of a job soon if WWF doesn't have any use for them. So what next? No one seems to know. Booking decisions are basically being made day-to-day right now instead of long term because all the long-term plans have basically been scrapped. Separate brands, separate TV shows, separate PPVs and touring schedules....it's all up in the air right now and may happen or may not. The Vince/Linda angle where they split the assets on Raw after the Invasion PPV has definitely been scrapped, so at the very least, things are going to be delayed and now it's looking entirely possible that there won't be a relaunched WCW at all.
  • Meta news time! Dave wants to thank everyone who made the Wrestling Observer Live online radio show so much fun for the last 2 years. But as of last week, online radio host website Eyada has folded and with it goes the Observer show. Dave talks about how the stories of dot-com businesses shutting down is a daily news story these days (yup, this is right as the dot-com bubble was bursting). He compares the Eyada situation to being similar to ECW's dying days. Everyone involved knew the ship was going down and there were occasionally hopes to try and save it at the last minute, but it all fell through and it was forced to close. Dave talks about how the internet is an incredible technological advancement and how Eyada was an idea ahead of its time. The belief was that internet radio was the future and how there was belief that people would be able to listen to it in their cars eventually or buy a device that works with their Walkmans (omg) and things like that. But 2 years later, none of that has happened and internet radio just hasn't taken off like people expected. Plus all the problems that come with it, like sound quality, lagging, getting disconnected, etc. just made it inconvenient for most people. But regardless of all that, the Observer show built a pretty large audience and was often the highest rated internet talk show in the country which admittedly doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things but hey, Dave's still proud of it. Dave thanks a lot of the people involved by name, particularly Bryan Alvarez for his amazing insight and wit. Dave's bummed that it's going away, but who knows, maybe something will pan out in the future...
  • The latest in regards to Jerry Lawler being rehired by WWF is that the deal is pretty much dead for now. Lawler went on his website and wrote a long post detailing why the deal to bring him back last week fell apart. Lawler was called by Kevin Dunn to work Raw and be the WCW announcer for the Booker T/Buff Bagwell match and had agreed to bring Stacy Carter back with him. Before she was fired, Stacy did not have the typical WWF contract, she was being paid-per-appearance. So WWF agreed to bring Lawler and her back, with Lawler signing a contract and Stacy getting her old per-night deal back. At this point, Lawler pushed his luck and inquired about maybe getting Stacy an actual contract with a downside guarantee like everyone else in the company has. Lawler even volunteered to take a $52,000-per-year paycut so that Stacy could have a $52,000-per-year contract and it wouldn't cost the WWF any additional money. All this negotiation was going on through Kevin Dunn, who in turn talked to Vince and cleared everything. Dunn told Vince about Lawler's request and Vince responded that they wouldn't sign Stacy to a contract because they had no future plans for her beyond her returning alongside Lawler this one time. Begrudgingly, Lawler went ahead and agreed, figuring at least Stacy would have a foot back in the door and if Lawler is there, maybe he can pull some strings and get her back later.
  • Then Kevin Dunn called Lawler back the next day and told him Vince had changed his mind. They didn't want to bring Stacy in even for the one-time appearance. Only Lawler. At that point, Lawler backed out of the deal. Lawler claims that Bruce Prichard is the one who changed Vince's mind, after the original deal was already agreed upon, and convinced Vince to not bring Stacy back at all. Dave says there was a lot of pressure on Vince because it would look like he had caved to Lawler's demands, which isn't a good look for the boss. And plus, as mentioned, Stacy was deeply unpopular in the locker room and apparently nobody liked her. But whatever the reason, Vince changed his mind, said absolutely no Stacy, and so we're back to square one with Lawler refusing to come back without her (Stacy's about a week away from abruptly leaving Lawler for another guy anyway, which he goes into excruciating detail about in his book if you've never read it, so this all wraps up soon).
  • NOAH is looking to bring in Dalip Singh, the 7-foot dude who has been working for APW in California. NJPW is also interested in him (that's Great Khali and he ends up in NJPW).
  • Atsushi Onita officially announced he will be running for Japan's House of Councilors as a member of the Jiminto party, which is the biggest political party in Japan. Onita's platform is big on children's education because he's famous for dropping out of high school and then going back to earn his diploma at the age of 40. As part of a publicity stunt for the announcement, Onita went to Rikidozan's grave site and said he was going to send videos of his famous death matches to Japan's prime minister Junichiro Koizumi. Then he said after he wins the election, he wants to challenge Antonio Inoki to a retirement match "And you think politics in our country is silly," Dave quips. Anyway, spoiler: Onita actually wins.
  • Kevin Nash did an interview with a Japanese wrestling magazine and had some interesting comments. Nash freely admitted that he was specifically told not to mention Scoff Hall's name on TV in WCW, so in response, he went out on TV and did it every week anyway. He says at one point he was told that if he did it again, they would consider it a breach of contract and fire him, so Nash responded with a big speech about the Constitution and the first amendment and all that stuff. Dave just shakes his head at this dumb shit. But he also says WCW gave him repeated chances and never fired him, so at that point, it was WCW's fault, not Nash's. You can't repeatedly threaten to punish a child when it misbehaves and then not back up your words when they do. Anyway, in the same interview, Nash also said he had considered retiring after WCW closed but he misses the pop of going through the curtain and is now just waiting for his WCW deal to expire so he can jump back in. As for went wrong with WCW, Nash said the bookers (Russo) never understood that you have to lay a foundation for the storylines and have them make sense and that the title should mean something. He said WWF never lost sight of the fact that the world title should be valuable and winning the belt is the ultimate quest, while Russo devalued the belt completely. Also, way too many run-ins in every match.
  • That Matrats promotion in Canada is running a big show this month and it's a test-run for a planned PPV in October. If you recall, Eric Bischoff is working with this company and his partner Jason Hervey will be the on-air commissioner. As far as wrestlers, the best workers in the promotion are said to be Jack Evans, Teddy Hart, TJ Wilson, and Rene Dupree. Speaking of Dupree, he's only 18 years old and looks incredible and those who have seen him say he could be the next mega star in this business (yeah, everyone thought he would be for awhile. He ends up in WWE, does the La Resistance gimmick, but never really gets beyond that). Joey Styles may end up doing the announcing for this company. Speaking of announcing, Dave says they used to have the most underrated announcer in the business, a guy named Mauro Ranallo, but he isn't working with them anymore.
  • XPW had a fire spot go wrong at a show this week. Supreme was going against Kaos and Supreme was supposed to get put through a flaming table covered in fluorescent light tubes. Veronica Caine, one of the porn stavalets XPW uses, put way too much lighter fluid on the table and Supreme took the bump face-first somehow and....caught on fire. Then the idiot with the fire extinguisher panicked and started spraying the table in the ring because it was still on fire. Meanwhile, Supreme was over on the other side of the ring, still cooking. Eventually, they sprayed him too. He suffered serious burns on his chest and arms and was on the ground for about 10 minutes before being taken out by paramedics. The fans, respectful as always, yelled things like, "I hope you die!" and "I smell bacon!" It's said that for the rest of the show, the arena smelled of lighter fluid and burnt flesh. Anyway, Supreme is expected to be hospitalized for at least a week.
WATCH: Supreme turns into a crispy critter - XPW 2001
  • While all this was going on during the same XPW show, promoter Rob Black was backstage arguing with Sabu and trying to talk him into doing a job for the three-way main event. The match was supposed to be XPW champion Messiah vs. Vampiro vs. Sabu. Also, the Insane Clown Posse were supposed to be with Vampiro and involved in the match, but they walked out after Violent J was pissed because Pogo The Clown stiffed him during an angle earlier in the show, to the point where J reportedly may have broken ribs. Anyway, Sabu eventually agreed to do the job. Sandman was also on the show and he and New Jack both received huge "ECW" chants from the XPW crowd.
WATCH: ICP attacked in XPW
  • UFC is said to be against the idea of bringing Tank Abbott back, who is currently sitting out and collecting on the remainder of his WCW contract. UFC has worked really hard to be seen as a real sport and have fought with the state athletic commissions about how these are highly trained world class athletes. Meanwhile, Tank Abbott is basically just a big ol' beefy street fighter with little formal training who wasn't even in shape for his most recent fights. Basically, he goes against everything UFC is trying to present itself as (he eventually comes back in 2003).
  • It's pretty much official that Goldberg will not be coming to WWF anytime soon. In order to sign him, it would mean he would have by far the biggest contract in the entire company. As Dave has pointed out before, from an economic standpoint, they should bring him in. A couple of Goldberg/Austin and Goldberg/Rock dream matches on PPV alone would be enough to recoup the cost of his contract. But it would also upset the salary structure of the company and piss off the whole locker room and they just aren't willing to do that. So expect Goldberg to sit out the next 2 years or so (yup).
  • Buff Bagwell has already been fired by WWF, for "an amazing ability to accumulate heat in almost record time," Dave says. There was the issue with him and Shane Helms that was mentioned last week that left Bagwell needing stitches. Those who know Helms say he's a quiet, hardworking guy and he was only defending himself so there's no heat on him. Bagwell also arrived late for the practice sessions in Stamford almost every day and was said to be the only one not taking the practices seriously. He also arrived late for his first house show. After the Smackdown taping in Tacoma, they did an angle after the cameras were off where the WWF guys came to the ring and ran off all the WCW guys, leaving only Bagwell alone with guys like the APA. It was pretty much another one of those typical "Welcome to the WWF" beat downs from the APA where they beat the shit out of him and gave him a hard power bomb. Also, Bagwell's mother Judy Bagwell repeatedly called the office complaining about Buff's travel accommodations, leading to Bradshaw ruthlessly ribbing him for it. Many of the WWF wrestlers even started a pool, taking bets on how long Bagwell would last. Turned out it was sooner than almost everyone predicted, although Dave says one unnamed wrestler was only off by 5 days. Anyway, he's gone. Dave's been saying it for years, all that immature shit people used to get away with in WCW ain't gonna fly in WWF, and Bagwell has become the first to learn that the hard way.
  • Notes from Raw: Steve Austin and Kurt Angle continued their hilarious backstage interactions, complete with Angle getting all of them little sheriff badges. Booker T, holding both the WCW world and U.S. titles, beat Kurt Angle, with Booker getting booed out of the building. And of course, the big ECW angle at the end with WCW and ECW joining together and Stephanie McMahon being revealed as the new owner of ECW.
WATCH: Stephanie McMahon revealed as the new owner of ECW
  • Kaz Hayashi, Yun Yang, Shannon Moore, and Evan Karagis all made their WWF debuts in a dark match that got over big, which is the first time a WCW match has done so since this angle began. Rob Van Dam also worked a dark match, beating former WCW wrestler Johnny the Bull. RVD got over strong as well.
WATCH: the final moments of RVD vs. Johnny The Bull 2001 dark match
  • Ad Age magazine ran a story talking about how Vince McMahon wanted to blow up a Honda car during halftime of one of the final XFL games. The reason is because Honda was one of the original XFL sponsors but they pulled out early in the season and bashed the XFL for not delivering the product they were promised. McMahon was pissed about it and wanted to blow up a Honda in response but was talked out of it by NBC execs who were already pretty fed up with this crazy old man and his carny ideas.
  • Spike Dudley suffered a hairline fracture to his fibula in a match on Smackdown and will be out for about a month. He's using a crutch and a soft cast for now and is still making his appearances. He even offered to tape up his leg and wrestle if needed for weekend house shows.
  • Steve Austin is still dealing with serious back issues that make even putting on his shoes difficult. He's expected to be back by the Invasion PPV but it's touch and go. Even the little bit of physical activity he has done the last few weeks has caused him to have back spasms.
  • Mick Foley was on TSN's Off The Record in Canada and once again, host Michael Landsberg delivered a segment that blows away every other wrestler interview, because Landsberg understands the business, treats it and the wrestlers with respect, but he also asks tough questions. Foley was asked about the future of wrestling because of how violent it's getting and all the risks people take. Foley agreed it was too much and hoped it would scale back, and talked about the success of guys like Benoit and Angle as an example of getting over and becoming a star without throwing yourself off cages. Both Foley and Landsberg agreed that WWF is in a bit of a rut right now. Foley blamed it on McMahon focusing too much on the XFL for the last year. They discussed the infamous McMahon/Bob Costas interview and Foley said he actually asked Vince about it and asked if it was a work or a shoot and Vince told him it was for real, he wasn't playing a character during that interview. Foley said he currently has no interest in returning to the ring but admitted it would probably happen eventually. Landsberg argued that if wrestling had a union, Foley wouldn't be allowed to wrestle for his own good. They talked about NHL player Eric Lindros' concussion issues and Foley said during the last year or so of his career, he told wrestlers to take it easy with him because his wife didn't like him taking chair shots to the head.
WATCH: Mick Foley on TSN Off The Record in 2001
  • Dave recaps a recent WWF press release that talks about the history of WWF and WCW. Basically, the gist of it is WCW never accomplished anything on their own and were only good when they stole a bunch of WWF stars. Dave says they own WCW now. The company itself is dead. It serves no purpose to keep burying them. They should be trying to rebuild it rather than talk about how shitty it was and how it only succeeded because they stole WWF stars.
  • TNN put out a press release bragging about the network's overall ratings increases compared to last year and touting that they're the fastest growing network in prime time. That's true, but it's also ENTIRELY because of Raw. In fact, if you took Raw out of the equation, TNN's numbers would actually be down from last year.
  • Jim Cornette had hernia surgery last week and will be out for a few weeks, so Kevin Kelly will be handling announcing duties in OVW for awhile.
  • Speaking of OVW, it was mentioned a few weeks ago that Leviathan has grown his hair out and shaved his face and basically changed his overall look. In case you're wondering why, it's because he worked a dark match at a WWF show and got a huge "Goldberg!" chant, so they told him to change his look.
  • In regards to Smackdown going live later this year, WWF is publicly blaming the ratings decrease on internet spoilers for taped shows. Dave points out several reasons why this simply isn't true. For starters, Raw's ratings (which is already a live show) have been falling at a faster rate than Smackdown. The ratings decline also started abruptly, just in the last few months since WCW folded. Basically, the product sucks now and wrestling just isn't hot anymore. It has nothing to do with taped show spoilers on the internet. In fact, how can someone even read spoilers on the internet during this time? As soon as the website loads, someone in the other room picks up the goddamn phone and the internet disconnects. Dammit Dad, I've been downloading a picture for the last 45 minutes, it was almost done! Ugh! I HATE YOU! I SHOULD HAVE GONE TO LIVE WITH MOM!
  • Brock Lesnar was interviewed in an amateur wrestling magazine about his decision to become a pro wrestler, which a lot of amateurs look down on. Lesnar talked about the difficulty of it, saying, "It is a lot harder than I expected it to be. It is more demanding on my body than all my 19 years of amateur wrestling put together. If you don't know how to land right or do a move in the correct way, you are putting yourself and your opponent's life in danger." In regards to amateur wrestlers nay-saying him for it, Lesnar responded, "I fell victim to the amateur people saying, 'Don't watch professional wrestling because it's fake and not real.' I've been trying to get amateur wrestlers like Shelton Benjamin and myself to make a difference somehow in both and professional and amateur world."
  • There was a segment about wrestling on the Fox News show The O'Reilly Factor regarding the usual is-wrestling-appropriate-for-children debate. Bob Backlund was on to defend wrestling while some doctor who did a study about the effects of wrestling on kids was there to argue the other side. Basically, both Backlund and the doctor debated back and forth, both of them were full of shit, O'Reilly was clueless about wrestling, and they played clips of WCW while talking about violence in the WWF. "As with most things on that network, little was accomplished," Dave says. My man.
  • Apparently there was an altercation between Hugh Morrus and Mark Jindrak during one of those training sessions. Jindrak reportedly messed up some spots, Morrus tried to help him out and correct him and Jindrak responded by calling him a fat slob who's never done anything in the business and then they were separated before it could escalate. WWF officials were said to be less than impressed with Jindrak's attitude and Jim Ross had a meeting with all the WCW wrestlers to basically remind everyone to check their attitudes at the door because this ain't WCW anymore. (See: Bagwell, Buff.)
  • Speaking of, there's still a lot of backstage heat between WWF and WCW wrestlers, who are still divided in the locker room. A lot of WWF wrestlers already see this angle as a flop based on the crowd response. Meanwhile, the WCW wrestlers feel like the angle has been bungled from the beginning and even said the real WCW would have been more organized and had a better plan in place for this angle than WWF has so far. But otherwise, the general feeling is that the WWF is so much more professionally run in every aspect of the business and it's been a culture shock to a lot of the WCW guys.
  • There was some heat on Stacy Keibler for missing some house shows this weekend. Apparently, she had already been told she wasn't going to be working the shows but then they changed their mind and wanted her on the road to practice the bra and panties match that is scheduled for the PPV. Keibler had already made vacation plans since she was originally scheduled to be off and refused to break her plans. WWF allowed her to miss the shows, but it didn't endear her to some in the locker room. God, there is so much petty, clique-ish nonsense happening in WWF right now.
  • Speaking of, a lot of the WCW wrestlers who haven't been used on TV yet were at Raw in Atlanta this week since so many of them live in the city. And once again, it was the same issues backstage, with WCW wrestlers being accused of not knowing the protocol. They were nervous and shy, didn't talk to many people, didn't shake everybody's hand, etc. So now they've all got bad reps with the WWF guys, because this is fucking high school apparently.
  • Random notes: Toronto Skydome is looking to be the front-runner for WrestleMania 18 next year (yup). The Invasion PPV isn't sold out and there's still 2,000 tickets left as of press time. Scott Hudson is already done as WCW announcer, but he was only supposed to be short-term anyway.
  • Chyna did her first interview since being benched by WWF. The only interesting thing she said is that they wouldn't let her win the WWF title and she "has too much experience" to wrestle the women so there was nothing left to do with her character. She did say one true thing. She mentioned that wrestlers who's contracts are coming due soon are going to realize that one man having a monopoly on the business isn't a good thing for the wrestlers.
  • Al Snow and Dean Malenko were practicing commentary backstage during Raw. WWF is looking for new commentators for the WCW side of things and hey, why not? Dave says Malenko in particular is someone who is said to be hilarious backstage, quick-witted and fun to talk to, but it never translates to TV. Stevie Ray was like that in WCW, which is why they made him an announcer too, but it never clicked.
  • WWF has a deal with some company to send CD-ROMS to WWF Magazine subscribers which will feature bonus content not included in each issue of the magazine. That is a very 2001 sentence.
  • Letters section time! An indie wrestler, who chooses to remain unnamed, writes in and is pretty disgusted by the fact that Tough Enough exists. He talks about how just before Tough Enough debuted, WWF pulled out of their developmental deals with several indie companies and cut developmental contracts of dozens of talented wrestlers who were working in those promotions (like Memphis Championship Wrestling, UPW in California, etc.). This guy thinks it's kinda fucked up that so many hard working, legitimately talented developmental guys are suddenly out on their asses while a bunch of nobody reality show contestants are vying for a WWF contract on TV.
  • Other people write in about the WCW angle. One guy predicts exactly what's going to happen, that WWF is going to bury WCW, nobody will get over, the whole thing will be a flop, and Booker T will likely be the only WCW signee who may have a chance to make it as a WWF star. Dick "The Destroyer" Beyer writes in saying the recovery for the business is going to be tough in the wake of WCW's death and will take a long time.
  • A former WCW wrestler named Bob Cook writes in and says he was the first wrestler to work with Buff Bagwell for his WCW tryout match back in 1991, which led to Bagwell getting his job with WCW. After watching the Bagwell/Booker T match, Cook writes, "I wish I wasn't such a great worker. Never thought I was, but I must have been to make Bagwell look good enough to get a job in the first place. I would like to say I'm sorry to the fans for helping him get his job."
FRIDAY: Bankruptcy court upset with WWF for using ECW intellectual property they down own, Terry Gordy passes away, tons more WCW updates, plans changing daily, and more...
submitted by daprice82 to SquaredCircle [link] [comments]

This is covered in topic #3. Puckline or “Canadian Line” Hockey Betting. The Puck Line is sometimes referred to as the “Canadian Line” in NHL hockey wagering. This is a bet with a constant point spread of + or – 1.5 goals. This works exactly like the ‘Run Line’ in MLB baseball betting. When betting on the NHL, if you place a 3 way bet then you are betting on 60 minutes only. There are three possibilities in the game, a win for the home team, a win for the away team or a draw. For the purposes of your bet, overtime and penalties do not count. Winning margin betting involves wagering on the number of goals/points that a team will be winning by at the conclusion of the game/match. How It Works. With winning margin betting you wager on how many goals a specific team will win a game by. You must correctly select the winning team as well as the winning margin. 3 way betting is almost the same exact thing as money line betting, except any overtime and shootout play is not included. So basically, you bet one team to win, the other team to win, or bet a tie. The idea behind this bet is to give you better odds on the favorite in each game, but also make the bet tougher because you automatically lose if While betting on the winner of the game, as shown above, is the most popular method of betting the NHL, there is also the puck line. Baseball bettors will recognize this as being quite similar to the run line. When betting the puck line, bettors can either lay 1.5 goals with the favorite or take 1.5 goals with the underdog.

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