UCLA vs. Washington State Prediction: Betting Line & Pick
UCLA vs. Washington State Prediction: Betting Line & Pick
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Defending the Draft: New England Patriots
Preface Going into the 2019 season, the Patriots held very high expectations. The defense that had just shut down the high-powered 2018 Rams offense had arguably gotten better. Although the offense had lost Rob Gronkowski, the addition of first-round WR N’Keal Harry and free agent Demaryius Thomas seemed to at least keep their offensive options. Combining this with Sony Michel coming off a successful rookie campaign and 4 of 5 starters of a strong offensive line, with Trent Brown being replaced by 2018 1st round selection Isaiah Wynn, the offensive situation looked optimistic for New England. As the team progressed through the 2019 preseason and into the season itself, things began to look even better. Although N’Keal Harry injured himself in the first preseason game, the team was eventually informed that Josh Gordon would be reinstated, even being allowed to start Week 1. The defense showed its prowess throughout the preseason, especially against the Lions and Panthers, with the only bad game coming against the Giants, when the Patriots mainly played people at the bottom of the depth chart. To add to New England fans’ excitement, they saw their team sign WR Antonio Brown the night before the team’s debut against the Steelers. As New England embarrassed Brown’s former team 33-3, and then the Dolphins 43-0 it seemed almost inevitable that New England would become the first franchise to win 7 Super Bowls. However, that was not how the season progressed. Brown couldn’t handle himself even under Belichick’s control, and his decision to threaten the children of one of his accusers of sexual assault found him released from the team. Josh Gordon was injured Week 6 against the Giants, eventually being medically released and later found to have relapsed when he was on the Seahawks. The rest of the offense was riddled with injuries: Julian Edelman had nagging rib injuries, Philip Dorsett hurt his foot early in the year and also sustained a concussion, Mohammed Sanu sustained an ankle injury in his first game, early kick/punt returner Gunner Olsewski was injured in Week 7, Brady himself reportedly struggled with his elbow. The worst effects of injury came against the Offensive Line, as 4 out of the 5 starters sustained some injury, and this is not including the fact that C David Andrews missed the whole season because of pulmonary embolism. The most impactful injury out of this bunch was LT Isaiah Wynn, as the team had to deploy Marshall Newhouse to replace him, a role that Newhouse did not fill adequately, to say the least. Blocking also suffered when FB James Devlin suffered a season ending injury, followed by his backup Jakob Johnson also being put on IR only a few games later. Matt LaCosse and Ben Watson both missed multiple games, forcing the team to only roll with Ryan Izzo at tight end at some times. These many injuries, as well as a terrible TE corps, not only stunted the passing attack but also crippled the running game. Michel was often met and tackled in the backfield, resulting in a terrible YPC despite being the AFC East’s leading rusher. Despite these offense struggles, the team’s excellent defense performance, in combination with facing many subpar offenses, carried the team to a 12-4 record and the 3rd seed in the AFC. However, the offensive struggles were too great for the team; although the team’s defense held the red-hot Titans offense to 14 points and gave the offense multiple chances to pull ahead, the offense failed to perform when needed, unable to finish drives, even when on Tennessee’s 1-yard line. Sometimes you really do need an offense to win a championship. Pre-draft Notable Losses QB Tom Brady, FA, Buccaneers: The one loss that seemed unthinkable until it really happened. Even though we knew that Brady’s contract voided after this year, many fans thought he was still going to re-sign and finish his career here. However, New England really did not have the cap space to do so and build a satisfactory team around him, causing Brady to decide to sign with the Buccaneers, a team with high offensive potential and has a shot at the super bowl. The Greatest QB of All Time will be missed here in New England, as the team experiences uncertainty at the position for the first time in nearly 20 years. FB James Devlin, Retirement: When it was announced that it was a neck injury that sidelined Devlin for the rest of the season, his future with the team was in doubt. Once the team signed free agent Dan Vitale, it was almost certain that Devlin would announce his retirement sooner or later. James Devlin was an underrated part of the Pats’ success in the 2010s, where he proved to be a reliable lead blocker, bolstering the effectiveness of New England’s run game. His absence for most of 2019 was palpable as the team consistently struggled establishing a run game, and the Patriots have a tall task of finding an effective replacement for him. K Stephen Gostkowski, Released: Gostkowski’s departure represented another long-time Patriot staple leaving the team, although the Patriots had started to live without him as his season ended very early due to an injury that required surgery. The Patriots missed Gostkowski’s leg last year, as the team could not reliably score field goals longer than 40 yards, causing the offense to attempt 4th down conversions deep into enemy territory. LB Kyle Van Noy, FA, Dolphins: One of Belichick’s greatest successes in terms of correctly utilizing players that were previously viewed as ‘busts’ because their coaches could not use them correctly. Van Noy was acquired from the Lions for a measly swap of 6th and 7th picks midway through the 2016 season. Throughout his tenure with the Patriots, especially within the last two seasons, Van Noy became a staple piece in the team’s LB corps with his versatility and great fundamentals. Van Noy now joins his former LB coach Brian Flores in Miami, who will likely maximize Van Noy’s potential. LB Elendon Roberts, FA, Miami: Elandon Roberts joined his teammate Van Noy in joining Miami to be coached under Brian Flores. Roberts was promoted to captain for his final season in New England, and primarily played most of his defensive snaps as a run-defending thumping linebacker. Roberts also filled in as an emergency FB when both Devlin and Johnson were injured, and played decently well for a third-string FB, I guess. Roberts represents another role that the Patriots had to fill through free agency and the draft. LB Jamie Collins, FA, Lions: The Patriots added a familiar face in the athletic freak Jamie Collins heading into the 2019 season. Collins’ athleticism allowed him to flash in the early parts of the 2019 season, when he obtained a pick-six at Miami and almost blocked a Bills field goal attempt by broad jumping over the Bills’ line. Like Van Noy, Collins heads to a former Patriots defensive coach in Matt Patricia in Detroit. Unlike the Dolphins, the Lions front office did not watch the second half of the 2019 season, where Collins tended to lose discipline and become a liability in the defense, showing off some of his former issues. I highly doubt Lions fans will think Collins is worth his $10 million APY contract DT Danny Shelton, FA, Lions: Patriots North scoops up another Patriots player, what a surprise. Going into the 2019 preseason, Shelton seemed like he might be on the outside looking in for the Patriots roster. It looked like other tackles such as Mike Pennel had the ability to replace Shelton. However, Shelton impressed and was able to earn his spot on the team. The nose tackle’s primary role throughout the season was to be a run defender, a role he played quite well. Shelton will help add some strength to a Lions defensive front that played badly last year. DB Duron Harmon, Traded, Lions: Duron Harmon was a long-time player at the safety position, filling in the role of the third safety while working alongside McCourty and Chung. He earned the nickname of “the closer” due to his performances at the end of matches where he would end the game through obtaining an interception. The Patriots quickly found their replacement for Harmon, most notably adding DB/ST Adrian Phillips, so there really isn’t much worry for him leaving the team. OL Coach Dante Scarnecchia, Retirement: Arguably the greatest loss that the Patriots suffered outside of Tom Brady, the OL guru has again decided to retire. Scarnecchia is responsible for the Patriots having great offensive lines throughout his tenure and is a sometimes underrated aspect of their wild success. Unlike Scar’s previous retirement in 2014 where he was replaced by Dave DeGuglielmo, both Cole Popovich and Carmen Briscillo have experience being an understudy of Scarnecchia, which will likely help to soften the blow of his retirement. There were also rumors that Scar was still advising New England on scouting the OL position for the draft, so perhaps you can never keep this man away from this team. Additions, Extensions, Retentions, C David Andrews, Returning from IR: Although this technically does not fit this category, Andrews deserves to be mentioned. Even though Ted Karras played decently as he was thrust into the starting role, the Patriots felt Andrews absence, especially in the run game. Losing Andrews also likely contributed to the rest of the IOL (especially Mason, who played a lot of the season with a foot injury) not performing as well as they could have. Andrews' return will improve Jarrett Stidham’s performance, both through his protection as well as increasing the effectiveness of the Patriots’ rushing attack. OG Joe Thuney, Franchise Tag: Bringing back Thuney was a wise move for the Patriots. The star left guard will be instrumental to protecting young quarterback Jarrett Stidham as well as ensuring the run game operates smoothly. Although some consider IOL to be a low-value position, Thuney will help the team acclimate to the other changes that happened around the offense. Having a solid line is an important element of building a good offense, and Thuney will ensure that the left guard position will work reliably. DBs Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung: With Brady leaving, the Patriots found it valuable to keep long-time veterans around the team to maintain their team morale and culture while acclimating to the personnel change. McCourty has been a captain and locker room leader of the Patriots for quite some time and will be an important leader as the team adjusts to 2020. Both McCourty and Chung will feature in what should be a very strong secondary unit throughout the 2020 season. DB/ST Adrian Phillips, FA: Boy do the Patriots love versatility special teamers! Phillips has played well as a special teamer and also played in many positions in the Chargers secondary, and will bring his veteran experience to the Patriots secondary. He will likely play in the rotation of safeties with Chung and McCourty, filling in a similar role to Harmon, who was traded the day before Phillips was signed. DT Beau Allen, FA: The former Buccaneers DT will likely fill in as a replacement for Danny Shelton, who left the team to play for Detroit. Allen projects to play as a run-stuffing nose tackle that will ensure the Patriots can control the run. FB Danny Vitale, FA: Vitale is an interesting signing. While he is listed as a fullback, he probably will not be a straight replacement for the retired James Devlin. Devlin primarily filled in as a lead blocker and sometimes as a rusher, but very rarely was used as a downfield threat. Vitale has some decent athleticism and pass-catching experience that the Patriots will likely utilize. His versatility may mean the Patriots move him around a lot instead of just using him as a lead blocker, though he has decent experience at that position as well. LB Brandon Copeland, FA: Copeland was a signing the Patriots made to help account for the losses they had in free agency. The veteran LB recently played for the division rival Jets, where he primarily performed off the ball under Gregg Williams. Copeland brings some versatility and leadership as he has had to adapt from playing from the defensive line to off the ball. WRs Marqise Lee and Dameire Byrd, FA: Byrd’s main attribute is straight-line speed, though he really has never been able to convert it into a high amount of production, in part due to injuries. Perhaps it’s because Dorsett was on this team for three straight years, but I am not going to bet on Byrd producing just because he has speed. Lee is much more interesting, as he was able to produce solidly during 2016-17. However, Lee has not performed nearly at all in the last two years because of injuries. If Lee can return to his pre-injury form, (though not very likely), he could carve out a pretty decent role on this New England roster. The Draft: 2.37 Kyle Dugger, DB, Lenoir-Rhyne: It wasn’t a surprise to many Patriots fans that the team elected to trade out of their first round pick, though some that held up hope the Patriots would make a selection might have been disappointed. Many fans wondered where the team would go with their first pick, and when it was announced that the team chose a DB from a division II school, people were initially exasperated. Belichick’s record with 2nd round defensive backs is quite well known such that it has become a meme within the fanbase and around the NFL. His main success with the position in the second round was with Patrick Chung, and even he wasn’t very successful until his second stint. Obviously, we can’t declare a player a success or failure just because of prior trends or draft position and instead should look at the player himself if we are to make a judgement upon him. Coming out of high school, Dugger only received offers from DII schools because he was very undersized. As he eventually grew into his frame in Lenoir-Rhyne, he elected to commit to the school that recruited him. Dugger is a hard-hitting player who most likely will transition to playing in the box as a safety for the Patriots, likely eventually taking over for aging veteran Patrick Chung. What separates Dugger from many other defensive backs the Patriots have selected over the recent years is his athleticism. Dugger running a 4.49s 40, jumping 42 inches in the vertical jump and 134 in the broad jump while being 6’1” and 217 pounds presents a mixture of speed, size, and athleticism that is rare for a safety. The main aspect of his game that the Patriots need to work on is his transition to playing against NFL-level competition. Generally, the jump from a DI school to the NFL is quite large, the difference from DII to the NFL is even larger. It will likely take a year or two for Dugger to be ready to be a significant contributor on the defense as he adjusts to his new system. Adapting to these circumstances, the Patriots have ensured that Dugger will not have a lot of pressure to perform on defense early on through extending Chung and signing Phillips. Interestingly, Dugger’s coaching throughout his years at Lenoir-Rhyne has been inconsistent, he had to play under three different coordinators during his four years at the school. Hopefully with some great coaching and system stability with Bill and Steve Belichick Dugger can carve out his role as a future player in the secondary. Perhaps to the disappointment of some Patriots fans, Dugger’s contributions early in his career will most likely be on special teams. Dugger had experience being a returner in college, and I would not be surprised if that becomes his primary role early on in his tenure. Dugger’s athletic ability gives him the potential to become a future star on the team if he can adapt to the NFL. Only time will tell whether he works out or becomes another player too add to the list of failed second round picks. 2.60 Josh Uche, OLB, Michigan: Patriots Director of Player Personnel Nick Caserio remarked that prior to day two, the Patriots had three players they had a priority on acquiring: Dugger was one of them, and Uche was the other that the Patriots were able to draft with their selections. Like Dugger, Uche is an explosive athlete with great speed as well as motor. Due to enduring an injury in the senior bowl, he was unable to participate in the combine. However, his athleticism shows up on film. Uche is a very versatile player, being able to play both on the line as well as off the ball and his efforts got him named the most versatile player by PFF in their 2020 draft guide. Michigan DC Don Brown said that he put Uche in nearly every position on the defense. I am sure Belichick was quite happy when he saw the 245 pound linebacker in coverage downfield against Penn State WR KJ Hamler. Amongst his versatility, his pass rush ability is what truly stands out. His 23.2% pressure rate and 28.2% pass rush win rate were second in both categories in the FBS. Uche achieved these great statistics through his incredible getoff off the line as well as good hand placement combined with his fantastic athleticism. Don Brown stated that Uche’s primary motivation was to become the best pass rusher in the country, and the dedication and work that Uche put in to be amongst the best in the country showed throughout the 2019 season. The primary aspect of Uche’s game that he needs to solidify in order to increase his role on the Patriots is increasing consistency with run defense. Uche marked the first of five consecutive selections the Patriots made that addressed pressing needs. Considering the amount of LB talent that left over the offseason, it is possible that Uche will see a decent amount of playing time on the defense, perhaps in a similar role to former Wolverine Chase Winovich, whom Uche now rejoins in New England. I see Uche likely being the second-most impactful rookie to play for the Patriots this season, helping to strengthen the team’s pass rush, resulting in a more effective pass defense overall. 3.87 AnferneeJennings, OLB, Alabama: Jennings’ selection serves as a nice complement to Uche’s. While Uche is this very athletic and undersized linebacker, Jennings better fits into the traditional, big, physical type of linebacker. Coming from Alabama, Jennings offers great fundamentals and football IQ that come from developing under Alabama Head Coach Nick Saban. While he may not be the most athletic or flashy player, Jennings will likely cement his role in the Patriots defense as a solid and reliable player, especially against the run. Jennings registered great production during his time at Alabama, leading edge defenders in FBS for run-stop rate at 12.6%. The Alabama product has often been compared to former Patriots LB Kyle Van Noy due to his ability to be a versatile piece across the line. Jennings is a very persevering player as well. In 2018 he suffered a worrying knee injury. Fortunately, the injury did not prevent him from returning to the field, but Jenninngs had to put in a lot of effort in order to return to his previous form. Saban also complimented Jennings’s dedication to improving himself in practice sessions. Jennings likely projects as an edge defender who will play very well against the run while also sometimes dropping into coverage. Jennings will likely see a fair amount of action as a rookie, especially on rushing downs. While he may not have a high ceiling, Jennings will likely be an anchor of the Pats’ defense as he progresses through his contract. 3.91 Devin Asiasi, TE, UCLA: On the offense, New England desperately needed to do something with their TE situation. Matt Lacosse may be a replacement level backup, but Ryan Izzo is not an NFL-caliber player. With very little cap space to address the position in free agency, the Patriots looked to the draft to fill their TE position. By selecting Asiasi in the third round, it is the first time the Patriots have spent a day two or higher pick on a tight end since 2010, when they selected Gronkowski. Asiasi will likely become the Patriots number 1 option at the position. When looking at Bill Belichick’s 1991 scouting notes shared by Daniel Jeremiah, NBC analyst Phil Perry noted that Asiasi seems to fit the bill for the number one role. Devin Asiasi displayed great catching ability throughout his year starting at UCLA, only having one drop throughout the entire year. Asiasi also demonstrated great ability to run after the catch, averaging 5.6 yards in this category. Another ability that Asiasi brings as a TE that the Patriots sorely missed in 2019 is blocking. Even if Asiasi won’t perform as a great blocker (which is best reserved for #2 or #3 TEs anyway), it will most likely be better than the awfulness that was Patriot tight end blocking last year. Asiasi was suspended for three games in the 2018 season for undisclosed reasons by Chip Kelly. However, Bill Belichick and the Patriots are on good terms with UCLA head coach Chip Kelly, meaning that they were able to confer with Kelly and confirm that Asiasi would be a good fit with the team and his suspensions were nothing to.worry about. Asiasi also possesses high football intelligence, being able to run complex concepts such as option routes in Kelly’s TE heavy offense. Even though Asiasi is undersized for what people normally think of a #1 TE , only being 6’3” and 257 lbs., his athletic ability and smooth movement should translate well into the NFL. Although Asiasi will likely be the starting Y-Tight End for the Patriots offense, I would not bet on him to break the trend of rookie TEs having low production, though Asiasi will definitely contribute in blocking. 3.101 Dalton Keene, TE, Virginia Tech: The Patriots also repeated something that they did 10 years ago, which was taking two tight ends in the draft. Dalton Keene is an interesting prospect to project for the Patriots. His playstyle resembles that of an F or move tight end. Even Belichick admitted after drafting Keene that they would have work to do in terms of finding him a role on this team, since the role that Keene played in the Virginia Tech offense is nothing like anything the Patriots run in their offense. If Keene seems to be such a confusing fit for the Patriots, then what made the team trade back up into the third round in order to select him. The most defining feature that Keene exhibits through his play is toughness. He is a very dedicated and ruthless player, oftentimes toughing it out through injury and not playing with high regard to his health while on the field. The aggressiveness that Keene displayed both during practice and games caused his teammates to give him the nickname of “Rambo”. Keene’s offensive coordinator Brad Cornelsen called him the toughest player he has ever seen. Keene has never produced that much in the receiving game, only racking up 341 yards in his most productive receiving season. Perhaps given his athletic talent it suggests that Virginia Tech underutilized his ability in the passing game, instead placing more focus upon his ability in the run game instead. Keene will be a versatile player and likely fill multiple roles as the Patriots’ second tight end, primarily being used as that F tight end, move tight end, or perhaps H-back. He may in fact share similar duties to FB Danny Vitale. I would be more than happy if Keene and Asiasi can combine for about 600-700 receiving yards and a few touchdowns in their rookie year. 5.159 Justin Rohrwasser, K, Marshall: Another need that the Patriots needed to fill during the draft or free agency was the kicker position. Many people expected the Patriots to take someone like Georgia kicker Rodrigo Blankenship, Georgia Southern kicker Tyler Bass, or Chase Vinatieri from South Dakota. When the Patriots selected Rohrwasser, a kicker who was so unknown that he didn’t even have a profile on the NFL’s website many people were confused. What caused the Patriots to select this unknown kicker from Marshall. Rohrwasser displayed great performance throughout the 2019 season, having a statistically better season compared to the other higher profile kickers in the draft. Rohrwasser made 18 of 21 field goals and 35 of 36 XPs. He was perfect on kicks greater than 50 yards out, even hitting a clutch field goal from 53 yards against Western Kentucky after being iced twice. Belichickj stated that the Patriots have watched over 250 kicks and were impressed by his ability to kick in clutch situations as well as poor conditions, something Rohrwasser will have to do often in the AFC East. It is unclear whether Rohrwasser will relieve punter Jake Bailey of his kickoff duties (thought I think it’s more likely than not). If there is any position I trust Bill to evaluate, it’ s the placekicker. Rohrwasser will likely be the most impactful rookie on the patriots, mainly because he is the only surefire starter out of all of them. If Rohrwasser succeeds, the Patriots will be able to not go for fourth downs deep in enemy territory again and have a good kicker on a cheap rookie deal. 6.182 Michael Onwenu, OG, Michigan: After addressing many immediate needs, the Patriots decided to take some shots at reserve linemen. Considering what happened in 2019, it is smart for the Patriots to add some young talent to the Offensive Line in order to account for things not going according to plan. The first thing that strikes people when they look at Onwenu is his size. This man is HUGE, especially for an interior lineman. Coming in at 6’3”, around 350 lbs (he actually weighed closer to 370 during the season at college), Onwenu is a very physically imposing presence. He is very good at doing his job of not letting defenders get by him. During his past two years at Michigan, Onwenu played 1198 snaps, Onwenu only allowed 13 pressures and 2 sacks. He plays with great power and if he is able to get his hands on the defender, then it is over. Onwenu also possesses decent movement ability for his size; he will be able to perhaps do downfield blocking a bit better than people expect him to. Also, according to Michigan’s OL coach Ed Warriner, Onenwu really doesn’t have the ability to go much lower than 345 lbs. Onenwu will start out on the team as a backup in the iOL, though more likely in his natural position of RG. Onenwu is quite different compared to New England’s other iOLs, he is 50 pounds heavier than the rest of our starting interiors. It will be interesting to see how Onwenu is able to execute the Patriots’ offensive scheme considering how physically different he is compared to Thuney, Andrews, and Mason. Either way, Onenwu will be a reliable depth piece that can protect Stidham if any of the starters go down. 6.195 Justin Herron, OG/OT, Wake Forest: The second lineman that the Patriots invested draft capital in was Justin Herron. Herron started 51 games for Wake Forest, exclusively at the LT position. Herron’s experience at the position will likely slot him in as the primary backup to Isaiah Wynn, who has spent a lot of time of his career injured. Herron did suffer an ACL tear in the first week of the 2018 season, but rebounded quite well in 2019. Herron, like Onwenu, is a great pass-blocker. In 2017, the season prior to tearing his ACL, Herron allowed zero sacks. In 2019, when he recovered from his ACL injury, he only allowed four sacks and 13 pressures. Some analysts raise questions about Herron playing tackle at the next level, instead projecting him as a guard. Interestingly, analysts made similar remarks about now-starting LT Isaiah Wynn. Considering that he only played left tackle during his time in college, I think the Patriots evaluated him and will use him as a tackle. If New England wanted an interior lineman, they likely would have selected someone else. Another concern that some have about Herron is his athleticism, which showed up at the combine, especially in his 8.41s three-cone drill. Scarnecchia often said the Patriots don’t care too much about athleticism in the OL, saying that they only needed to be athletic-enough. If the Patriots were that concerned about his athletic ability, he likely wouldn’t have been selected. Even so, it’s a great idea to grab a tackle who played solidly in college and will spend most of his rookie deal as a reserve player. This pick will be a success if Herron makes the team and can competently back up Wynn if he finds himself injured again. 6.204 Cassh Maluia, LB, Wyoming: In the midst of the Patriots grabbing multiple offensive lineman, the Patriots selected another linebacker to increase their depth. During the 2019 season, Maluia went relatively under the radar due to his fellow linebacker and 65th overall pick Logan Wilson. However, those who studied Wilson likely saw Maluia pop out on a few occasions and make great plays. Maluia is an athletic and undersized linebacker, weighing in at only 231 lbs. His athleticism showed up both on tape and on the field, where Maluia displayed versatility across the field being able to both be a thumper as well as a decent coverage player. Maluia’s biggest concern is probably his tackling form, as his aggressiveness caused him to miss a fair amount of times. If Maluia makes the 53 man, he will likely contribute mostly as a special teams player, though his athletic ability might allow him to play a few snaps at defense. 7.230 David Woodard, C, Memphis: With their final selection in the 2020 NFL draft, the Patriots threw a dart at another reserve lineman. Woodard played all across his the iOL throughout his college career, displaying the versatility that is desired in a backup lineman. Woodard does not have athletic testing available, though some analysts expressed concern about his athletic ability and his size, as Woodard only weighs 291 lbs. As detailed earlier, the Patriots generally concern themself more with technique than pure size and athleticism, and Woodard displays great technique. He graded out as the best run-blocking and second best pass-blocking center in 2019 through PFFs metrics. The Patriots will likely have to still improve Woodard’s technique to make him a future part of the team. Woodard projects as a reserve interior guy, particularly backing up C David Andrews if he makes the team. UDFAs Considering that a UDFA has made the New England roster for 16 straight years, I think it is appropriate to talk about some of the more interesting prospects in short. These are not all of the FAs the Patriots signed but some that I think are the most interesting and have the greatest chance to make the team. For the QB position, the Patriots signed Michigan State QB Brian Lewerke and Louisiana Tech QB J’Mar Smith. Lewerke initially showed promise but a shoulder injury he suffered in 2018 really derailed his career. Smith is more interesting, as he displayed his athleticism throughout his career, as well as possessing great arm strength and ability to make flash off-platform throws. He was suspended for a game, but in his 11 starts he went 10-1 and won C-USA offensive player of the year. Neither QB really poses much threat to Stidham, but if one of them shows promise (especially Smith, who reportedly had a few offers from other teams), don’t be surprised if Belichick makes space for them on the 53 man roster. For the WR position, which many people were surprised the Patriots did not take a shot at in the draft, the most interesting players are Auburn WR Will Hastings and Miami WR Jeff Thomas. Hastings was Stidham’s former slot receiver in college, racking up 26 receptions and 525 yards with the QB in 2017. Hastings tore his ACL prior to 2018, and Stidham missed his reliable option during the season. Hastings ran a 4.49s 40 and a blistering 6.64s 3-cone during his pro-day. Hasting’s connection with Stidham may allow for him to sneak onto the team. Thomas, on the other hand, mostly specialized as a deep threat for the Hurricanes. Even though he is undersized at 5’9 and 170 lbs, many scouts said he displayed draftable talent throughout his career. The aspect of Thomas that was more influential in making him a UDFA is his character concerns. Thomas has had an issue with nearly every coaching staff that he has interacted with, and got kicked off the 2018 team for attitude issues. If Thomas can pull himself together and realize that there are no more chances, he could transform into a future weapon for the Patriots. Arizona RB J.J. Taylor is another interesting pickup for the Patriots. He is very short, coming in at only 5’5” tall (never in my life did I think I would be taller than a Pats player), but still manages to pack 185 lbs. Despite his size, Taylor is quite talented, displaying some decent shiftiness as well as the ability to bounce through contact. Perhaps because of his size and elusive playstyle, he has drawn comparisons to former Patriots RB Dion Lewis. If Taylor can show enough ability throughout the offseason, he might be able to get the Patriots to replace a RB, primarily Rex Burkhead, who many Pats fans theorize the team will cut for a few years now. Ohio State TE Rashod Berry is another interesting player the Patriots picked up. He reportedly may change his position to OLB. Berry had some experience playing defense for Ohio State early in his career, though he did some snaps along the defense for a few games in his senior year. Many Ohio State fans say that Berry is a very athletic player who was underutilized by the Ohio State system. Wherever he plays, it will be interesting to see how his skill translates to the next level. On the defensive side of the ball the Patriots were able to sign Auburn EDGE Nick Coe after negotiations between him and the Bills fell through. Coe was one of the top ranked free agents after the draft talent-wise, as he produced well in his first few seasons at Auburn. He is a much more prototypical big edge player the Patriots generally use in their system, but also has the versatility to play off the ball. However, Coe seems happiest playing as an edge rusher off the line. Coe’s main issue is his off-the field issues, where he feuded with his coaching staff over his assignments on the team, and also did not put in as much effort as a result. Coe is a very high-potential signing, but he will have to accept whatever role New England gives him if he wants to succeed. The signing that gave the most guaranteed money went to Arkansas LB De’Jon Harris. Harris primarily plays as a thumping linebacker, which will likely be his role if he manages the Patriots. He has been theorized to fill a similar role to Elandon Roberts did last year (though likely not as a FB on offense). As a thumper, Harris’ best ability is tracking down and meeting the ball carrier, except he does suffer from some tackling issues. The Patriots somehow managed to convince Bill Murray to join the team, where he will slot in on the defensive line. The DT from William & Mary displays good ability to be disruptive along the defensive line, though keep in mind that this was against FCS competition. Murray also managed to block 10 kicks during his tenure, something that Belichick is surely proud of. He reportedly is also a guy who is great at making his teammates laugh, perhaps like his celebrity counterpart. Considering that DL is a weaker position on the Patriots, Murray has a real shot to get on the team with his talent. If I am going to talk about UDFAs that have a great chance of making the team, I am not going to overlook the secondary. The DB that the patriots signed this year was Washington’s Myles Bryant. Bryant is another undersized player, only coming at 5’8” and 183 lbs.. and primarily played free safety in 2019 after playing slot corner for the previous two years. Bryant showed good short-area quickness on the field as well as in athletic testing, running a 6.81s 3-cone. His greatest weakness is tackling, likely worsened by his small size. Bryant will need to improve his tackling if he wants to make the team. I also wanted to shout out 2019 UDFA UNM DB D’Angelo Ross, another undersized corner that showed some promise in the preseason prior to suffering a season-ending injury. I still don’t fully understand why Belichick spends so many premier picks on DBs when he can just pull great ones out of his rear nearly every year in the UDFA market. Roster Projection: Projecting the Patriots roster is especially difficult due to the amount of bodies at many positions such as OL, LB, and DB. This problem is exacerbated by the fact I haven’t seen anyone play yet or have the most recent updates on everyone’s health. I am not confident that this roster will be that accurate to the final roster that appears week 1. QB (2) - Jarrett Stidham, Brian Hoyer RB (5) - Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead, Brandon Bolden, Damien Harris FB (1) - Dan Vitale WR (7) - N’Keal Harry, Mohammed Sanu, Julian Edelman, Marqise Lee, Jakobi Meyers, Matt Slater, Jeff Thomas TE (2) - Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene OL (9) - Isaiah Wynn, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Marcus Cannon, Yodny Cajuste, Justin Herron, Hjalte Froholdt, Michael Onwenu DL (4) - Adam Butler, Beau Allen, Lawrence Guy, Byron Cowart EDGE/LB (9) - Deatrich Wise, Chase Winovich, John Simon, Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings, Dont’a Hightower, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Cassh Maluia, Brandon King CB (6) - Stephon Gilmore, Joejuan Williams, Jason McCourty, J.C. Jackson, Jonathan Jones, Justin Bethel, S (5) - Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger, Terrence Brooks K - Justin Rohrwasser P - Jake Bailey LS - Joe Cardona KR and PR - Dugger Conclusion? The Patriots enter a time of uncertainty that hasn’t existed in my lifetime. This 2020 squad is very hard to predict because of all the unknowns that exist all over the team, most notably at QB. It is possible that the Patriots perform better on the offense this year due to the sheer amount of players that are now healthy, especially alongside the offensive line. Although it is most likely the Patriots will not be a contender this year, depending on how well Stidham and the rest of the offense perform and develop, the team could bring itself into contention as early as 2021. I anxiously, but optimistically, await this team’s future.
Disclaimer #1: This is based on what I would do not what I think will happen Disclaimer #2: This mock will include trades 1.01 CIN - Joe Burrow QB LSU Duh 1.02 WAS - Chase Young EDGE The Ohio State Again, duh Trade: MIA receives 1.03. DET receives 1.05, 2.39, 2.56, & 2021 MIA 2nd 1.03 MIA via DET - Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama In a bidding war between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Miami Dolphins, Miami just has too much draft capital to spend for their QB of the future. If this was a normal year where teams would be able to get Tua in their building for updated medicals, then I'd be much more willing to spend extra 1st round capital to trade up and get him for either LA or Miami. The injury concerns obviously make this pick very risky, but some of it has simply come down to bad luck for Tua. When healthy, he's obviously an extremely talented passer who can cut apart a defense in so many different ways. Personally, I don't think the Fins are going to trade up for a QB. I think they want to keep as many draft picks as possible and are more than happy with either Tua or Justin Herbert at 5. However I have a solid gap between Tua and Herbert as prospects, so for me I feel like I need to go up and make sure I get my far and away top QB available.0 1.04 NYG - Jedrick Wills OT Alabama I think this pick will be Isaiah Simmons come Thursday, however I would definitely be looking at taking one of these OTs at 4 for the G-Men. At the end of the day, Daniel Jones needs more help on the offensive line and specifically with his bookends. Nate Solder has been plagued by poor play since signing with the Giants, and Cam Flemming is much more suited to being a backup than relied on as a starter. With Wills, there might be freakier athletes in this OT class but I don't see anyone who has more pluses to their name than Jedrick. He's a very good athlete, has good length, and is probably the most technically sound OT in this draft class. Rarely is a pick ever "safe" but Wills is as good as it gets when it comes to tackle prospects in the NFL Draft. 1.05 DET via MIA - Jeffery Okudah CB The Ohio State For the third time, duh 1.06 LAC - Andrew Thomas OT Georgia So this pick has pretty much always been Justin Herbert, however I wanted to do something different and go through a scenario where the Chargers don't go QB. When I look at Herbert, I'd be okay with his currently development if he were a 2 year starter instead of a 4 year starter. I'm worried about some of the mistakes Justin makes with so much experience under his belt, however he dealt with numerous WR injuries in 2019 and Marcus Arroyo was (IMO) way too conservative in his play calling throughout much of the year (the Auburn loss in particular I blame a lot on Arroyo). There were flashes of Herbert being able to handle a heavier offensive load in 2019, however we never really got to see that come to fruition consistently. Herbert, like Jordan Love, really needs the right place to develop and I'm not sure the Chargers are it. I don't think it's a horrible place for him, with guys like Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, and Austin Ekler as targets. However that OL needs some serious work, and after playing with the best OL in the nation at Oregon I think the adjustment could be tough for Justin. Instead I want to experiment with a different route in Andrew Thomas. Thomas has SEC experience at both RT and LT, along with solid athleticism, technique, and amazing strength and length. Thomas is as solid as they come, and whether it's for Tyrod Taylor, another vet, or a young QB, he should be a rock on the OL for whoever the Bolts starter is in 2020 and in the future. 1.07 CAR - Isaiah Simmons DEF Clemson My #2 overall player comes off the board to Matt Rhule and the Panthers here at 7. Carolina has a lot of needs, and at the end of the day I think they just need to take the most talented player on the board at their pick. Enter Isaiah Simmons, the do-it-all slot cornesafety/linebacker who has the talent and athleticism to transform a defense. Simmons isn't a 1-to-1 replacement for Luke Kuechly, but you need a similar type of game changer on the defense. I believe Simmons is that player, and he should provide day 1 impact to a team in a rebuilding phase. With Brian Burns at DE and Donte Jackson already at CB, now Carolina has a young building block on all 3 levels of their defense. 1.08 ARI - Tristan Wirfs OT Iowa This pick has got to be on either the offensive line or the defensive line for the Cardinals unless a player like Isaiah Simmons or Jeffery Okudah falls to them. I think a guy like Javon Kinlaw makes a lot of sense here, however like with the Giants, I am most concerned with protecting my young QB. Tristan Wirfs is an other-worldly athlete who has P5 experience at LT and RT. In terms of athleticism and strength, Wirfs has a rare combination of both of those tools to work with at the NFL level. Tristan needs some more development in the technical department in the NFL, but even though the Cards have vets like DeAndre Hopkins, Chandler Jones, Larry Ftizgerald, and Patrick Peterson, I don't feel that they need him to be awesome from day 1 and they can just let him learn at his own pace. If you can develop Wirfs properly, you'll have a fantastic bookend for Kyler Murray for a very long time. Trade: TB receives 1.09. JAX receives 1.14, 3.76, 4.117, & 2021 2nd 1.09 TB via JAX - Mekhi Becton OT Louisville I think this trade makes a ton of sense for both sides. Jacksonville's roster has been gutted over the past couple needs, and they just need to get as many picks as possible to try and build back up their roster. Tampa acquired the services of Tom Brady in free agency, and their win-now window has become obvious. The Buccaneers have a really good offense with guys like Brady, Howard, Evans, Godwin, Brate, Marpet, and Jensen as well as a great offensive mind in Bruce Arians as head coach. At this point with where the Bucs are at, I'm most concerned with fortifying the rest of the OL and spending whatever draft capital I have to in order to do it. Becton is by far the best OT left on my board and he's worthy of this pick. He's an absolute freak with incredibly nimble, explosive feet at 6'7 364 lbs. Leverage will probably always be a bit of an issue for Becton since he's so big and I think he needs work on his hand placement, but at the end of the day someone that huge and that athletic will be able to stop plenty of pass rushers. For Tampa, your time is now so let's go get someone who will have an immediate impact protecting your new investment at QB. Trade: DEN receives 1.10. CLE receives 1.15, 3.77, 3.95, 4.118 & 2021 3rd 1.10 DEN via CLE - Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama With all 4 top OTs off the board, Cleveland has the freedom to trade down and get a couple more assets for missing out on their top need. Denver gets to jump up into the top 10 after trading out of the top 10 in the 2019 draft. With the top WR still available, this is a no-brainer choice for the Broncos to help round out their offense. Denver seems to be prioritizing a top WR in this draft to pair with Courtland Sutton and I feel like that's a great approach to take. While Henry Ruggs would also be a great fit in Denver, I just can't pass on the overall talent that someone like Jeudy brings. Route running, speed, YAC, production, Jerry has it all and an offense with Jeudy, Sutton, Fant, Lindsay, and Gordon should give Drew Lock all the weapons he needs to have a good sophomore campaign in the Rocky Mountains. 1.11 NYJ - Henry Ruggs WR Alabama And well, here's my WR2 coming off the board. The Jets have made an effort to sign a lot of offensive linemen in free agency and while none of them are good enough to stop them from taking an OT in the 1st round, it does give them somewhat of a safety net in case they aren't able to get one of the top 4 OTs. Henry Ruggs is a top 10 rated player in this entire class for me and I feel like he'll be an absolute game changer at the NFL level. Ruggs has good hands, amazing speed, and really promising route running as an underclassman. Ruggs can win at any level and take any route to the house. Sam Darnold needs as much help on offense as possible and a playmaker like Ruggs will sure go a long way in making Darnold's life better in the Big Apple. 1.12 LV - CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma Yeah this pick is another real easy one for me. The Raiders need another WR to complete their offense and give Derek Carr all the weapons he could hope for. With that OL, Lamb as a #1 option, Tyrell Williams, Renfrow in the slot, Waller at TE, and Jacobs at RB, Las Vegas should have one of the better offenses in the league if Carr can perform like a quality starting QB. 1.13 SF - Javon Kinlaw DT South Carolina I don't necessarily think the Niners need to be desperate for a Deforest Buckner replacement, but in this spot the board just lines up perfectly to take a DT. Kinlaw is the best player left on my board and although San Fran already has a talented DL, they certainly could use a player like Kinlaw. With the top 3 WRs all off the board, that leaves SF the freedom to really take BPA and I love the fit for Kinlaw. He would be able to make an impact early while not having the pressure on him to develop right away with all the talent around him. This is a BPA pick that could really keep the gravy train rolling in the bay area. 1.14 JAX via TB - CJ Henderson CB Florida Time for CB2 to come off the board. The teens are right around the sweet spot for CJ to go and a place like Jacksonville makes a lot of sense. With both Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye gone from the team, there's a large hole that needs to be filled in the secondary for the Jags and Henderson has the talent to help fill those holes. With long arms, great speed, smooth hips, and the ball skills to make plays on the ball, CJ can make an immediate impact in coverage for a team that needs to reload with impact players. 1.15 CLE via DEN - Kenneth Murray LB Oklahoma This is a really tough pick for me, because nothing they can take here is particularly great value. I considered taking Denzel Mims just because I think he offers something a bit different to that WR room. I also considered safety here but with Karl Joseph, Andrew Sendejo, and Sheldrick Redwine already in house I just wasn't sure if addressing it with their first pick was the right move. At the end of the day I went with Murray because when I talked to Browns fans it seemed like LB was the other big need. I'm personally not a Takitaki fan but I'm a big Mack Wilson fan. With Mack having the main coverage responsibilities at the 2nd level, Murray can be allowed to do what he does best on passing downs and blitz the QB and make plays happen underneath. Murray can be slot into a starting spot immediately for Cleveland and make a terrifyingly athletic LB duo with Mack for years to come. 1.16 ATL - Kristian Fulton CB LSU I know many might consider this pick a reach, but I believe that this is around the right value for Kristian Fulton. Fulton is still a talented corner with good, patient footwork and smooth hips. Fulton proved that he has the long speed to compete on the outside at the combine with a 4.46 40 yard dash. Fulton doesn't have great length, but he's got the athletic traits to still be a quality corner, and he gave many of the SEC's best WRs a ton of trouble as a CB. With the loss of Desmond Trufant, corner is solidified as the top need for the Falcons, and a player like Fulton will help in plugging up that hole on their roster. 1.17 DAL - K'Lavon Chaisson EDGE LSU Another LSU Tiger comes off the board in the teens, the Cowboys have a number of options to consider here at 17. Even though a few corners are off the board, guys like Jeff Gladney, Trevon Diggs, AJ Terrell, and Jaylon Johnson could be considered in the first round. Safety is an option too with none of them being selected so far. However at this spot I went with a pass rusher since it's become a sneaky important need following the departure of Robert Quinn. Chaisson has the burst and hand usage to develop into a dynamite pass rusher on Demarcus Lawrence's opposite side. K'Lavon also has the discipline and strength to hold up as a stout run defender on the edge. Chaisson doesn't wow with amazing size or arm length, but he's got the necessary package of traits to be a quality DE in the NFL. He also had the honor of wearing the #18 for LSU this season, so his character and work ethic will not be questioned in the NFL either. After Chase Young if I had to bet on any other EDGE in this draft class being a successful pro, it would be K'Lavon Chaisson. Trade: BAL receives 1.18. MIA receives 1.28, 2.55, 4.129, & 2021 3rd 1.18 BAL via MIA from PIT - Patrick Queen LB LSU Well look at this, 3 LSU Tigers get selected in a row here in the middle of the first round. I think a trade up makes sense from Baltimore's perspective since they actually have a good amount of picks to work with and not a lot of holes on their roster. After trading away a couple 2nds to get Tua, Miami is able to recoup a 2nd round pick and move up 40 spots on day 3. The weakest spot on the Ravens team is at LB. They lost CJ Mosley to free agency in 2019, traded away Kenny Young to LA for Marcus Peters in-season, and lost Patrick Onwuasor in free agency this year. These departures leave a talent gap that needs to be filled, and with Isaiah Simmons and Kenneth Murray already off the board, Queen is clearly the best LB on the board and there's a significant gap between Queen and the rest of the LBs on the board. With a fairly desperate need and a big talent drop off, it makes sense for Baltimore to be aggressive in trading up for Patrick in their contending window. 1.19 LV via CHI - Jeff Gladney CB TCU This is another easy pick for me to make. Gladney is my CB4 and final CB with a first round grade. Jeff brings the competitiveness that Jon Gruden absolutely loves, with ball skills and athleticism that should help him be a quality corner on the opposite side of Trayvon Mullen. Other than WR, CB is the biggest need for the Raiders but with the pair of Big 12 playmakers that I've taken for them in the 1st round, their roster rounds out really well and should be a tough team to play in a very competitive AFC West. 1.20 JAX via LAR - AJ Epenesa EDGE Iowa I know AJ isn't the most popular prospect after a pretty disappointing combine, but I still think there's a lot of talent there to work with, and over the past couple seasons of Big 10 play we've seen how good Epenesa can be. With Yannick Ngakoue wanting out of Jacksonville despite receiving the franchise tag (we'll get to this later), The Jags will need a new running mate for Josh Allen with Calais Campbell also out of town. AJ Epenesa still flashes a lot of burst, flexibility, and hand usage off the edge despite the pedestrian combine numbers. On a defense where he can still make an impact but not have the pressure of being the #1 pass rusher, Epenesa and Allen could form to make a formidable pass rush duo on the outside for the Jacksonville Jaguars. 1.21 PHI - Justin Jefferson WR LSU Justin Jefferson is actually my WR5 on my board, however I feel like the fit in Philadelphia is too perfect to pass up. Jefferson's combination of hands, athleticism, route running, and ball skills should fit very well to Carson Wentz, Doug Pederson, and that Eagles offense. With how much Pederson likes to keep defenses off balance with the quick game and RPOs, Justin should transition seamlessly into that offense and be an immediate contributor whether he's in the slot or out wide. Overall not only does Philly need athleticism at WR, but they also need reliability and with the receivers left on the board, no one is as reliable as Justin Jefferson. 1.22 MIN via BUF - Denzel Mims WR Baylor And now here we are getting to my WR4. Mims has the traits you want out of an outside receiver wit his size, catch radius, and athleticism. His combine and senior bowl proved that he can run any route you want him to, and that he can also win against press and physical coverage. While this is somewhat a Stefon Diggs replacement, they are different body types and do some different things. What will be present from day 1 is the type of receiving threat that Mims can be, he'll win with his size and speed on intermediate and deep routes from day 1 and I think he'll be the product of some favorable coverages with teams worrying more about Adam Thielen. Minnesota needs to make some key picks for the talent they lost in the offseason, and I believe that Mims is a high upside pick that can help that offense keep on chugging even in Diggs' absence. Trade: IND receives 1.23. NE receives 2.34, 4.122, & 2021 2nd 1.23 IND via NE - Justin Herbert QB Oregon Finally we're seeing some QBs come off the board after the Chargers passed on Herbert at 6. I personally see Indianapolis as a much preferable spot for Justin's development compared to the Chargers. The main reason I believe this is for a couple reasons. 1. Having Jacoby Brissett and Philip Rivers would be really good for Herbert, as I feel like they have a less likely chance to force Justin into starting than Tyrod Taylor, who failed to Baker Mayfield off the bench in Cleveland. 2. Most of all though, I have more trust in Indy's OL compared to LA's. With Anthony Costanzo back after contemplating retirement, Quenton Nelson as one of the best young OGs in the NFL, and other solid starters on the OL, Justin will having comfort in his OL much more similar to his Oregon days than anything he could dream of for the Chargers. Having a target like TY Hilton and an all-around RB like Marlon Mack for the future as weapons doesn't hurt either. With Brissett and Rivers both on 1 year deals, Herbert can then take over the starting job after a year learning the offense and learning from 2 veteran QBs. 1.24 New Orleans - Jordan Love QB Utah State Similar deal here at 24 with New Orleans. The Saints have a very limited number of holes on their roster and with Drew Brees getting older and older, this is the perfect spot for Jordan Love to develop. With coaches like Sean Payton and Pete Charmichael, a veteran HOF QB in Brees, a very good and young OL, and young weapons like Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, Love is in a prime position to grow his first year or two and then thrive as Brees' successor. I really feel like NOLA is the best possible place for Love to end up and I think the Saints could be able to keep the good times rolling after Drew with Jordan at the helm. 1.25 MIN - AJ Terrell CB Clemson I actually have Trevon Diggs slightly above AJ Terrell in my CB rankings, however I think AJ is the better fit in Minnesota. Diggs is very raw since he's only been playing CB for a few years, and I feel like the Vikings need a corner who will offer better play in year 1 because of how many CBs they need and because the Vikings probably still fancy themselves as playoff contenders. Terrell offers versatility in coverage, great athleticism/speed, and great length as a boundary corner. I don't think AJ offers a ton in the way of playmaking like someone like Trevon Diggs does, but AJ is still a very solid CB prospect who should be considered here in the late 1st round. 1.26 MIA via HOU - Josh Jones OT Houston I would love to take Lucas Niang at this spot, but I just can't bring myself to take not 1, but 2 players with serious hip injuries for a single team. Instead I'm going with the senior bowl standout in Josh Jones. I wasn't in love with Jones' feet or hand placement on his college tape, but he could absolutely rock any pass rusher on a punch with his heavy hands and he certainly has the athleticism to play tackle in the NFL. Even as someone who didn't love his Houston tape, even I have to admit he was fantastic down in Mobile and that performance has me more comfortable with the prospect of taking him in the 1st round, I just wouldn't do it in the early or middle parts of round 1. Other than QB though, OT is the biggest need for the Fins. With a QB like Tua who does his best work in the pocket and has had the injury problems he's had, you need to build a strong OL to keep him upright and Jones has the potential to be a rock at either tackle spot for Tua for a long time. 1.27 SEA - Lucas Niang OT TCU Trust me, this late 1st round Seattle pick from TCU has much better film than the late 1st round Seattle pick from TCU in 2019. Niang had a hip injury that cost him the 2nd half of his senior season, but his 2018 tape is some of the best tackle tape of anyone in this class. Niang has nimble feet, strong hands, great length, and good athleticism when healthy to be a pass protector in the NFL. He's also a very powerful run blocker who has strength and athleticism in his arsenal. Seattle has needed to address their OL for a while now, while they did that a couple of years ago by trading for Duane Brown, Brown is getting older and they haven't done a ton outside of that. Now all of a sudden the Seahawks have a nice mix of vets and young guys on the O-line to help Seattle and Russel Wilson in their playoff contention. 1.28 MIA via BAL - Grant Delpit S LSU I know that Delpit is an extremely polarizing prospect and has many detractors, but I still think Grant is the beset safety in this class and for me he still has a 1st round grade. I actually think this is a tad bit late for Delpit, however there just isn't a great spot for him above this where he fits better than the other prospects taken. Combine that with the fact that it's a deep safety class and now you can see why Delpit has fallen a bit. While his 2019 left something to be desired, Delpit's 2018 tape is still incredible and needs to be taken into account when evaluating him. His size, range, instincts, and playmaking are exactly what you want for a safety who can play in a number of roles. For Miami, after addressing their 2 biggest needs in QB and OT, I feel like they can just start taking BPA and at this spot in the draft, Grant Delpit is just about BPA for me. 1.29 TEN - Justin Madubuike DT Texas A&M My surprise DT2 makes an appearance in the first round! I'm not really sure why the Titans traded away Jurrell Casey for a mere 7th round pick, but there's a definite hole in his absence that I feel Madubuike can fill. The reason that I have Justin rated higher over Derrick Brown is simply because I think Madubuike can offer more pass rush than Brown. Justin has fantastic burst to combine with hand usage and a good frame for an interior pass rusher. With 22 TFLs and 10.5 sacks the past 2 years as a DT for the SEC TAMU Aggies, Madubuike is a proven disruptor that will help replace some of the production lost from Casey. 1.30 GB - Brandon Aiyuk WR Arizona State Once again an Arizona State WR finds himself in the back end of the 1st round. Aiyuk is a dynamite athlete as seen by his combine testing, who flashes a good ability to create separation in his routes and has a great ability to create with the ball in his hands. With so much attention going towards Davante Adams, Aiyuk should get plenty of chances to wreak havoc with the ball in his hands like he did in the desert in 2019. Aaron Rodgers needs more weapons on offense outside of Adams and Aaron Jones and Aiyuk should provide precisely the playmaking the Packers need. Trade: DET receives 1.31. SF receives 2.39, 3.67, & 3.85 1.31 DET via SF - Yetur Gross-Matos EDGE Penn State With all the extra draft capital that the Lions picked up from trading back with Miami, it allows them the freedom to jump back in the first round to a team that really need to trade out of 31 and get some more draft picks. With no 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round pick, San Fran trades back to 39 and gets an early 3rd and early 5th for their troubles. Even though Detroit gave up those picks, they still have plenty of good assets. Outside of corner, Detroit's next biggest need is probably at pass rusher. The Lions defense was pretty poor overall, and Trey Flowers needs a solid running mate opposite his side on the DL. YGM lacks a lot of consistency, especially against the best competition he faced, but he has all the traits you look for in a 1st round pass rusher. The Penn State product has length, explosiveness, and strength that you want out of a DE, and he doesn't have bad bend either. He needs to work on his hands and his plan as a pass rusher, but those were areas that he improved on a little bit last season. If he continues to improve in those areas, he could become a young cornerstone for a defensive revival in Detroit. Trade: CAR receives 1.32. KC receives 2.38, 3.69, & 2021 3rd 1.32 CAR via KC - Derrick Brown DT Auburn It's okay Derrick Brown fans, I still have the big Auburn man going in the first round. Carolina needs help in the trenches so with someone like Brown still on the board, it makes sense just to go up and get him before anyone else can. I think Derrick has some serious limitations in terms of his upside as a pass rusher, but he should still be a damn good run defender and with his size he'll be able to always make an impact in the NFL. Kansas City shouldn't feel any desperation at 32, and being able to get a couple of 3s to move down a handful of spots is fine business for a team that doesn't really have a prospect staring them in the face that they have to take at 32. I think this is a sensible deal for both sides. 2ND ROUND 2.33 CIN - Lloyd Cushenberry IOL LSU 2.34 NE via IND from WAS - Laviska Shenault WR Colorado 2.35 DET - Cesar Ruiz IOL Michigan Trade: JAX receives 2.36. NYG receives Yannick Ngakoue 2.36 JAX via NYG - Xavier McKinney S Alabama 2.37 LAC - Jalen Reagor WR TCU 2.38 KC via CAR - Jaylon Johnson CB Utah 2.39 SF via DET from MIA - Bryan Edwards WR South Carolina 2.40 HOU via ARI - Terrell Lewis EDGE Alabama Trade: WAS receives 2.41. CLE receives Trent Williams 2.41 WAS via CLE - Austin Jackson OT USC 2.42 JAX - Jacob Eason QB Washington 2.43 CHI via LV - Trevon Diggs CB Alabama 2.44 IND - Michael Pittman Jr WR USC 2.45 TB - D'Andre Swift RB Georgia 2.46 DEN - Prince Tega Wanogho OT Auburn Trade: MIN receives 2.47 & 2021 5th. ATL receives 2.58 & 3.105 2.47 MIN via ATL - Matt Peart OT UCONN 2.48 NYJ - Isaiah Wilson OT Georgia Trade: KC receives 2.49 & 2021 6th. PIT receives 2.63 & 3.96 2.49 KC via PIT - JK Dobbins RB The Ohio State 2.50 CHI - Jeremy Chinn S Southern Illinois 2.51 DAL - Bryce Hall CB Virginia 2.52 LAR - Tyler Biadasz IOL Wisconsin 2.53 PHI - Ashtyn Davis S Cal 2.54 BUF - Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin 2.55 MIA via BAL from NE - Cam Akers RB Florida State 2.56 DET via MIA from NO - KJ Hamler WR Penn State 2.57 LAR via HOU - Julian Okwara EDGE Notre Dame 2.58 ATL via MIN - James Lynch DT Baylor 2.59 SEA - Josh Uche EDGE Michigan 2.60 BAL - Zack Baun EDGE Wisconsin 2.61 TEN - Jack Driscoll OT Auburn 2.62 GB - Noah Igbinoghene CB Auburn 2.63 PIT via KC from SF - Neville Gallimore DT Oklahoma 2.64 SEA via KC - Donovan Peoples-Jones WR Michigan 3RD ROUND 3.65 CIN - Akeem Davis-Gaither LB Appalachian State 3.66 WAS - Adam Trautman TE Dayton 3.67 SF via DET - Ben Bredeson IOL Michigan 3.68 NYJ via NYG - Michael Ojemudia CB Iowa 3.69 KC via CAR - Malik Harrison LB The Ohio State 3.70 MIA - Ezra Cleveland OT Boise State Trade: DAL receives 3.71. LAC receives 3.82, 5.165, & 5.180 3.71 DAL via LAC - Kyle Dugger S Lenoir-Rhyne 3.72 ARI - Ross Blacklock DT TCU 3.73 JAX - Cameron Clark OT Charlotte 3.74 CLE - Antoine Winfield Jr S Minnesota 3.75 IND - Jonathan Greenard EDGE Florida 3.76 JAX via TB - Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB LSU 3.77 CLE via DEN - Tee Higgins WR Clemson 3.78 ATL - Antonio Gibson RB Memphis 3.79 NYJ - Jabari Zuniga EDGE Florida 3.80 LV - Jalen Hurts QB Oklahoma 3.81 LV via CHI - Troy Dye LB Oregon 3.82 LAC via DAL - Matt Hennessey IOL Temple 3.83 DEN via PIT - Willie Gay Jr LB Mississippi State 3.84 LAR - Zack Moss RB Utah 3.85 SF via DET - Damon Arnette CB The Ohio State 3.86 BUF - Kenny Willekes EDGE Michigan State 3.87 NE - Brycen Hopkins TE Purdue 3.88 NO - Troy Pride CB Notre Dame 3.89 MIN - Cameron Dantzler CB Mississippi State 3.90 HOU - Darnay Holmes CB UCLA Trade: PHI receives 3.91. LV receives 4.127, 4.145, & 2021 3rd 3.91 PHI via LV from SEA - Reggie Robinson II CB Tulsa 3.92 BAL - Lynn Bowden Jr WR Kentucky 3.93 TEN - Terrell Burgess DB Utah 3.94 GB - Cole Kmet TE Notre Dame 3.95 CLE via DEN from SF - Robert Hunt IOL Louisiana-Lafayette 3.96 PIT via KC - Van Jefferson WR Florida 3.97 CLE via HOU - Darrell taylor EDGE Tennessee 3.98 NE - Jordan Elliot DT Missouri 3.99 NYG - Isaiah Hodgins WR Oregon State 3.100 NE - Curtis Weaver EDGE Boise State 3.101 SEA - Amik Robertson CB Louisiana Tech 3.102 PIT - Hakeem Adeniji OL Kansas 3.103 PHI - Jordyn Brooks LB Texas Tech 3.104 LAR - Logan Wilson LB Wyoming 3.105 ATL via MIN - Markus Bailey LB Purdue 3.106 BAL - Ben Bartch OL St. John's MN
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma - Our newest Dallas Cowboy, in depth film study
Hey guys, I'm back with all-22 film study of our draft picks and I'm going to do it after every day and pick we make and possibly for our UDFA too after the draft. The information I'm going to give you, to the best of my ability are what games I watched and link to youtube cut ups of publicly available games, measurables and athletic testing (potentially incomplete because of COVID-19), my notes of the player that I took while watching him and a grade I gave him with a player comparison and finally with some all-22 film to show you what kind of player we're getting. 1.17 - CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
Games watched vs UCLA (2018), vs TCU (2018), vs Texas Tech (2018), vs West Virginia (2018), vs Alabama (2018), vs Houston (2019), vs South Dakota (2019), vs UCLA (2019), vs Iowa State (2019), vs Baylor (2019), vs Kansas State (2019), vs LSU (2019)
You can find all the cut ups of the publicly available games here, credit to the guys that run the database https://docs.google.com/document/d/1T-K3H4rMaV6hYrIVFyIqEzXE8HIKTVW-jX2xlgL-Z7U/edit Measurables and athletic testing (Height, Weight, Hand size, Arm length, Wingspan, 40 yard time, 10 yard split, 20 yard split, Bench, Vertical jump, Broad jump, 3-cone drill, 20 yard shuttle, RAS, sparQ score) 6015, 198, 9 1/4", 32 1/4", 76 5/8, 4.50, 1.58, 2.62, 11, 34.5", 124", N/A, N/A, RAS of 7.44 - Good, 121.8 sparQ (70.5% of all NFL WRs)
Strengths: Yards after catch ability, electric playmaker, enough speed to create separation at the top of his route, explosive mover, extremely reliable hands and big catch radius, true #1 type at 6'2" 198 old school glass eating type of a WR, he will bully your CB, can play inside and outside, great downfield threat, great at the catch point, tracks the ball in flight well and adjusts to it accordingly, incredible ball skills, incredibly hard to bring down in open field, strong and breaks weak arm tackle attempts easily, improved in almost all areas from a good 2018, production improved, showed improvement in his route running from 2018, improved a lot with his releases off the LOS in 2019, lulls the defenders to sleep just to exploit them, understands leverage and how to attack the blind spot of the DB, showed additional craftiness in 2019 that he lacked in 2018, very good at running a stop route threatening with speed and dropping his hips to create separation, knows how to sell the fakes on the crossing routes which are his bread and butter with slowplaying it and then exploding, good and willing blocker in the run game, added value as a ST return player and can be used in the run game as well with jet sweeps and other creative plays. Weaknesses: Does not show a diverse route tree (Go routes, Crossers, Screens, Comebacks, very rarely square out/in), has to continue improving in route running area of his game, big 12 defenses were not a good competition level that he made look silly at times, questions about being a „system“ WR if that is anyway possible because of how he was utilized in the Lincoln Riley offense. Bottom line: When I started the WR evaluation, I never expected somebody would get a higher grade than Jerry Jeudy because I love Jerry Jeudy and his game. I'm sold. CeeDee is my WR1. Even though I value route running the highest and CeeDee is not the route runner that Jeudy is (it's not really close in that regard), the volume of big plays, big play ability, highlight type plays and things he has done on tape this year made me reconsider my position on this. He has one of the craziest highlight tapes ever with plays like 2 against Texas, Kansas State or Baylor where he avoids 5 or 6 defenders, breaks 3 or 4 tackles and scores from 70 yards out on a simple WR screen or after the catch. He is absolute joy to watch and has his own skillset that might lead to him being the #1 WR drafted come April. I am just a bit concerned with how will he look outside of Riley's system but the athleticism, the hand strength, the aggressiveness at the catch point, the sure hands, the catch radius even while not having a diverse route tree is too much for me to ignore. Final grade - 6.9 (Round 1/Top 10 player) Player comparison - DeAndre Hopkins
All-22 (for the gifs that don't have an indicator, CeeDee is wearing #2)
https://imgur.com/3M6pNYk - First example of his strong hands and YAC ability. Ball is behind, doesn't matter. Strong hands to grab the ball, break a weak tackle and get some more yards afterwards.
https://imgur.com/qbqlw3E - Very rarely does Lamb run a complex double move route like this out/go. It shows in 2018 that he is not experienced as DB stays with him doesn't completely bite on the out route as the first part of this route but in the end it doesn't matter. He just grabs the ball over you it almost doesn't matter how good your coverage is. He understands how to stack the corner at the top of his route and how to be in position to make the play in the ball. Best deep ball threat in the draft even while not being the fastest receiver.
https://imgur.com/RbwnzKx - This is an example of him understanding leverage and how to win on a route. He starts upfield, makes a first move inside and once the DB is commited he instantly sinks his hips and turns on DB's blind spot. Ball is bit late and this could've been an even bigger play.
https://imgur.com/5vuOJrp - Great job of releasing off the LOS with multiple looks to the DB. In the limited times he faced press man he has shown very good ability to create seperation so it leads me to believe he is a better route runner and better at releasing than the tape shows. Amazing job to get inside of the DB because he released outside, to stack the DB so he can't get to the ball and keep the DB on his back while constantly hand fighting mid route, create just a tiny bit of separation at the top of the route and finish the play with a catch in traffic. There will be questions if Lamb can do this in the NFL. He can, in my opinion. It is very hard to guard receivers like Lamb (look at prime Dez or DeAndre Hopkins) that are basically open even when the coverage looks good or great.
https://imgur.com/xe1k9Jg - Just a simple slant route. He needed to work on his slants in 2018 as he mostly didn't give many looks to the DB before running them but he basically catches everything anyways.
https://imgur.com/MHRl4ev - Lamb is at the bottom of the screen. Example of threating deep with speed and having the ability to sink his hips and explode back to the ball.
https://imgur.com/Xpd9Zov - Good feel where how to turn to get the most out of a simple check down that probably wasn't designed to go his way.
https://imgur.com/qXe2Rsx - Another example of threatening the 9 route sinking his hips and cutting his route at the proper depth as soon as the DB is commiting to the 9 route.
https://imgur.com/ZJMH2Rc - Great fast release with a step inside, great usage of arm to knock the potential jab of the DB and backshoulder catch. It's unguardable
https://imgur.com/IrvBQnS - Just a simple WR screen that goes for a huge play. Lamb is a threat to score every single time he touches the ball and that's not exaggerating.
https://imgur.com/338MT2K - Little bit of a lazy out route but he doesn't round it out. Throw is poor but Lamb bails your QB out with his catch radius.
https://imgur.com/RwKd9UD - Example of YAC and mentality Lamb has. If he can't make you miss, he will try to run through you.
https://imgur.com/jc48ymo - Putting foot in the ground and breaking the other way the second DB flips his hips. Lamb is open here, he is going to get doubled too but the ball doesn't come.
https://imgur.com/KamBmGL - This is a lot of Lamb's game. He slowplays his route and then explodes. This time, the DB is aware and is sitting on the route. He almost comes up with the ball in the contested catch situation and the flag should've probably been thrown for DB running into his body before the ball arrived.
https://imgur.com/d7rO8aL - Again, amazing understanding of leverage and how to win. The second you commit against Lamb, you can almost bet he's going the opposite direction.
https://imgur.com/zmjdUiu - Lamb navigates incredibly well through the trash and Riley's system is designed in this way to get his best player the ability to find a spot and get the ball.
https://imgur.com/f183uEO - This is actually a lazy route by Lamb but at the catch point it looks easy for him to come up with this ball. It is really incredible to watch Lamb on the downfield shots. He gets free release, he just gives one little step inside but the route is not perfect and the DB is sitting on it but it doesn't matter. 40% contested catch rate in his college career and 30 catches on 20+yard throws with 0 drops. It shows why
https://imgur.com/rJOaKia - Great release by Lamb. In limited snaps of press man in red zone he wins very consistantly. This one wasn't particularly close. The DB even starts with inside leverage
https://imgur.com/vO4e0T8 - Another example of his understanding of where to stop in zone and how to create yardage instantly after the catch. Little bit of lazy route tho.
https://imgur.com/sHWNZoG - Another stop route. This time the DB actually plays it well but the example is there to show how he can sink his hips at 6'2".
https://imgur.com/YU1WELl - Slowplaying the route and lulling defenders to sleep just to explode and go to the open spot for an easy walk in touchdown. This is a giant mistake by UCLA's defense.
https://imgur.com/h9mJLHl - Another example of his understanding of leverage and how to attack the DB's blind spot. starts upfield, fakes inside with 2 steps and as soon as DB commits he breaks. Great showcase of his YAC ability too.
https://imgur.com/3t5BtcH - Very good release, hand swatting at the press and stacking the DB. If the ball is thrown in front of him it's an easy TD. However, because of the play design, Hurts would have to throw accross his body so the play doesn't go there.
https://imgur.com/KPt38bV - His ability to return kicks and punts and to make plays like this in the run game is also very important. He is just a playmaker. Get him the ball and let him work. But he isn't just a YAC guy as we've all seen. He's much more than that.
https://imgur.com/8l9L0C0 - Another great example of how quickly he can drop his hips on the stop/comeback route. The player guarding him is one of the more athletically gifted CBs in this class Darnay Holmes. He slips because the break is so sudden.
That's all folks. I hope you enjoyed my film breakdown on our newest Dallas Cowboy. CeeDee Lamb is a WR1 in this draft class and a top 10 pick that we got at 17. We absolutely made the right choice. Be happy about this and enjoy 50 points that we will score every week.
*I meant to post this here earlier. For those who don't know, I've been involved in sports betting industry for 20+ yrs on both sides of the counter (read my other posts for a little more detail on my experience & some helpful insights I share). I truly enjoy helping gamblers learn new insights/perspectives, this is an excerpt from a weekly strategy lesson I post in my sportsbetting community. Let me know how you all like these type of posts or if you have questions. Enjoy! * I’m sure everyone in here will be participating in March Madness, either betting individual games or filling out a bracket or doing a survivor pool so I want to give out some tips that may help you gain an edge throughout March Madness. Each pool or bracket contest has different scoring and rules so I’m going to try and explain some basic helpful tips for picking teams to advance either for your bracket or general betting purposes.
March Madness Tip-Sheet
A few auto-fills for brackets For starters you can basically just fill in every #1 seed to win their first round game (most likely the second game too advancing to sweet 16), I do #1 and #2 seeds advancing to sweet 16. A #16 seed has only beat a #1 just one time in tournament history (2018 UMBC over Virginia). A 15 seed has only beaten a #2 a handful of times. It’s safe to assume both 1 and 2 seeds will advance. So resist the urge for picking upsets, at least with the 15 and 16 seeds. (Talking in general probabilities) There has only been one Final Four in which all four teams were #1 seeds (2008, when Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA) Other than that, three No. 1 seeds have made it just five times. A few stat categories to weigh heavier than you may normally. Overall Team Defense, we’ve seen a trend lately with teams like Virginia, Texas Tech and others who survive and advance based on strong team defense and prioritizing a defensive philosophy. Look at which teams rank high in defensive efficiency, defensive FG %, average points per game allowed, and turnovers forced. Teams ranked high in these categories will certainly hold an edge. What’s good about teams that fit this is that normally they aren’t a popular team for bettors to back, while teams with high scoring big names you can get value with the less popular, less exciting defensive minded teams. Rebounding, typically good defensive teams also rebound well too because it’s an effort thing. Teams that pound the glass minimize their opponents’ second chances at scoring and often end up winning the free throw attempts stat category. Look at team rebound ranking and also rebounding margin throughout the season, we want strong rebounding teams. Teams who win the rebounding stat column will likely win and more likely cover the spread. Balance or star power, I prefer my teams to have a go to star scorer, others prefer a more balanced offense, I suppose either one is fine but what you can’t have is a team that has no real offensive standout option that can create their own shot. Not saying the guy has to avg 25pt per game but someone who can create and get that shot during a drought or opponent runs to kill momentum is paramount in March. Obviously teams make defensive adjustments for star players but in a way those star players are doing their job just by drawing attention, resulting in freeing up others. Look at past successful tournament teams, almost all of them have a go-to-scorer. Perimeter defense,Teams that know how to defend the outside shot, can usually do it game in and game out. When doing your college basketball handicapping be sure to look for teams that do well in this category, as a good three-point-defense takes away an important part of the opponent’s offense. Also it’s good to be aware of the teams that struggle defending the perimeter. Do a little stat digging and it will be worth it in the end. Things to weigh heavily when picking teams to advance or even betting games ATS. Experience, it’s nice to back a team who has players who have played in the tournament or has a coach with tournament experience. Right now in CBB the turnover of kids leaving and a Freshman replacing them it’s tough to find teams with a lot of tournament experience. Just take a quick look at rosters, Juniors and Seniors will most likely have some tournament games under their belts. Guard play, similar to experience but really you want solid guard play. The guards will have the ball most of the time in high pressure situations and late game management possessions, you want guards that don’t turn it over, it’d be nice to have some upperclassmen at the position but more important floor general type guards who can beat the press and stay cool in crunch time. Free throws, in the tournament an insane amount of games in March come down to the charity stripe. Look back at all those Calipari led Memphis and Kentucky teams with all the talent that didn’t do shit because they avg 65% as a team from the FT line. Teams that are trailing late are desperate and extend games by fouling, nobody wants to go home and a majority of games are won by teams who make free throws. More important than team FT avg is the key players FT avg, most teams have a go-to-guy late. In other words, the whole team doesn’t have to be great FT shooters but it’s important for the guards or key offensive players to hit free throws Location, Location, Location, just like we talked about during bowl season some of these locations can offer a serious edge to random teams. There has been countless times in previous years just by luck of the draw that 8,9,10,11,12 seeds have been fortunate enough to have certain rounds played in their backyards. It’s an impossible task for the bracket committee to factor in 64 teams and keep the sites 100% neutral, there are always a few teams each year that benefit from basically playing home games. Let’s find these teams and add a significant edge for them. These arenas get jumping during tournament time and if you have a team playing close to home and has the crowd support can be a very big advantage. Know the location of each region and the teams that are playing in those regions close to home Hope this helps some of you fellow bettors out there! Let's cash some winners this March Madness. Cheers! 🍻
Rankings: Every D1 Team vs. Spread Since 2011 (Cumulative) - UVA, MSU, Nova on top
Since 2011 (as far back as I have data), how has each team done vs. the spread? Specifically, if you bet $110 on every single game to beat the spread (which wins you $100 profit) since 2011, where would you be today? The chart below shows. Interestingly, a lot of the best teams of the era were also the best vs. the spread. Coincidence? I'm not sure, honestly. Someone has to be best vs. the spread, and assuming it's a bell curve (and it is) someone will be 2+ standard deviations ahead. But there's no a priori reason it should be UVA and MSU instead of e.g. Washington State or St. Peter's. (To pre-answer a question, sometimes you can win more money with fewer net wins vs. the spread because losses hurt you more than wins benefit you, and not every game gets a spread.) Additional data / year-by-year cuts
Betting line: Virginia Tech by 3.5. Over/under: 46.5. Score predictions. Goe: Virginia Tech 26, Pittsburgh 24. Utah running back Zack Moss (2) leaves behind UCLA defensive back Rayshad The UCLA Bruins clash with the Cincinnati Bearcats in a rematch of last year's season opener. Cincinnati beat UCLA 26-17 on September 1, 2018 at the Rose Bowl. The loss was part of UCLA's 0–5 Oregon College Football; College football best bets, Week 6: Betting lines, score predictions for Auburn vs. Florida, Iowa vs. Michigan, 20 other games Giving the defense as much rest as possible with a ball control offense would definitely help Virginia to cover the spread versus UCLA. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Trends. Virginia Cavaliers 5-3 As Underdog or PK since last season; Virginia Cavaliers 2-0 When Line was 50.5 to 54.5 since last season; Virginia Cavaliers 3-8 O-U All Games since UCLA Bruins vs Washington State Cougars Odds - Saturday September 21 2019. Live betting odds and lines, betting trends, against the spread and over/under trends, injury reports and matchup stats for bettors.
UCLA vs Washington State 2/13/20 Free College Basketball Pick and Prediction CBB Betting Tips
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