Houston Texans Wager Lines | Best Website For Betting On

The line for Texas vs Kansas State has grown in Texas favor to -7. However, 67% of the bets in Vegas are on Kansas State, which means there is A LOT of the money on Texas.

The line for Texas vs Kansas State has grown in Texas favor to -7. However, 67% of the bets in Vegas are on Kansas State, which means there is A LOT of the money on Texas. submitted by OnAComputer to LonghornNation [link] [comments]

General Election Polling Discussion Thread (June 2020)

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race.
Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Pollster Date Released Race Trump Biden
Yougov 6/26 National 39 47
Marist/NPPBS 6/26 National 44 52
HarrisX 6/26 National 39 43
KFF 6/26 National 38 51
Climate Nexus 6/26 National 41 48
Fox News 6/25 Texas 44 45
Fox News 6/25 N. Carolina 45 47
Fox News 6/25 Georgia 45 47
Fox News 6/25 Florida 40 49
CNBC/Hart/POS 6/25 National 38 47
Hodas (R) 6/25 Michigan 38 56
Hodas (R) 6/25 Wisconsin 39 55
Hodas (R) 6/25 Pennsylvania 42 54
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Wisconsin 36 45
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 N. Carolina 40 46
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Arizona 39 43
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Michigan 36 47
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Pennsylvania 39 49
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Florida 41 45
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 N. Carolina 40 49
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Florida 41 47
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Michigan 36 47
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Pennsylvania 40 50
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Arizona 41 48
Data for Progress 6/24 National 44 50
PPP (D) 6/24 N. Carolina 46 48
Ipsos 6/24 National 37 47
Quinnipiac U. 6/24 Ohio 45 46
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/24 National 36 50
Morning Consult 6/24 National 39 47
Marquette LS 6/24 Wisconsin 42 51
PPP (D) 6/23 National 43 52
PPP (D) 6/23 Texas 48 46
Trafalgar (R) 6/22 Michigan 45 46
Echelon 6/22 National 42 50
Gravis 6/20 Minnesota 42 58
SurveyMonkey 6/20 National 43 53
Gravis/OANN 6/20 N. Carolina 46 43
Saint Anselm College 6/18 New Hampshire 42 49
Fox News 6/18 National 38 50
0ptimus 6/18 National 44 50
Civiqs (D) 6/18 Kentucky 57 37
Quinnipiac U. 6/18 National 41 49
UCLA/Democracy Fund 6/18 National 39 50
Change Research 6/17 Arizona 44 45
Change Research 6/17 N. Carolina 45 47
Change Research 6/17 Michigan 45 47
Change Research 6/17 Wisconsin 44 48
Change Research 6/17 Pennsylvania 46 49
Change Research 6/17 Florida 43 50
Change Research 6/17 National 41 51
Civiqs (D) 6/16 Arizona 45 49
PPP (D) 6/16 Georgia 46 48
PPP (D) 6/16 New Mexico 39 53
TIPP/Am. Greatness (R) 6/16 Michigan 38 51
TIPP/Am. Greatness (R) 6/16 Florida 40 51
NORC/AEI 6/16 National 32 40
EPIC-MRA 6/16 Michigan 39 55
Scott Rasmussen 6/15 National 36 48
Abacus Data 6/15 National 41 51
SelzeDMR 6/15 Iowa 44 43
Hendrix College 6/14 Arkansas 47 45
Remington Research (R) 6/13 Missouri 51 43
Meeting Street Insights 6/12 National 38 49

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
submitted by Isentrope to politics [link] [comments]

Wall Street Bets, It’s time to panic

The Markets have an interesting behavior: they don’t care about something, until all at once they care, and they’ll care a great deal.
At the beginning of May, states like Texas began to re-open. And for awhile, it seemed that it was the correct move. Cases weren’t going down but they weren’t going up either. Throughout most of may we even saw a slight though not significant decline. Governors and citizens became encouraged and started lifting restrictions and abandoning social distancing rules.
History I promise you will rudely stamp these moves into textbooks as a lesson for people to learn from in responding to future epidemics and pandemics.
We are in the middle of the next COVID crisis. Anyone who is telling you otherwise is frankly lying, or ignorant.
Case counts have soared back to March and April levels, and it seems all but foretold that we will see the US break its record for coronavirus cases in a day by the end of next week. But this time, it’s worse: we have people ignoring social distancing rules across the country, believing the rhetoric of a deranged carrot saying the coronavirus is ‘fading away.’
The fear that helped save lives before has dissipated as the storm of warnings aren’t hitting people living under the umbrella of misinformation.
Dr. Fauci and Dr. Gotlieb, two doctors for whatever the world thinks of them are some of the better experts on Coronavirus, have been messaging you for weeks warning things are getting out of control. Dr. Gotlieb mentioned this recent friday that the likelihood schools are going to be able to open nationally is in serious doubt. Dr. Fauci mentioned that the NFL may have serious trouble playing in the fall. These doctors, who understand way more about the virus than we do, are saying ‘We are going to have serious alterations to our lifestyles through the end of this year.’
Governor Greg ‘I guess I rushed into reopening’ Abbot just made a plea to Texans to not go anywhere unless they need to. Texas is the number two GDP state in the country. Basically giving a casual stay at home order does not bode well for the productivity of Texas, nor the outlook of its ability to fight the virus.
California is really getting out of control. It’s the number one GDP producing state. Florida doesn’t give a fuck and man does the virus not give a fuck about their not giving a fuck. It’s the number four GDP producing state.
This is getting so bad that the EU is considering a ban on travel from the US. You thought airlines had it rough with no flights to China and Europe for the last couple months? If they can’t get in a decent travel summer season on international flights, good luck to your calls. Hopefully JPow creates a credit facility to give loans to fucked airline call buyers since the government is willing to collateralize just about every other part of the airlines for their loans.
We are simply doomed at this point to repeat our recent history. There will be a lot of denial, shouting, the carrot will turn red with anger, and there may even be violence, but eventually we will see some parts of the country forced to shut back down in the coming weeks and months. It’ll become a matter of hospital capacity becoming so overloaded that the state simply cannot manage the crisis.
Bulls will say what they’ve said since the bottom: the fed will print the road out of this. Yeah, that was going to work for round one. Round two? Not so much.
And the fed will have to start getting religious if inflation gets out of control. You can look at the inflation rate released every month and say ‘well the rate looks very disinflationary.’ Yeah, that’s not really how its playing out. Groceries are becoming more expensive, a tell-tale sign that inflation is kicking in hard. Commodity prices are generally rising (Even for oil, as oil inventories destroy expectations every time.) Meanwhile the DXY index is shedding value like its on a weight loss program. All of this to say: The fed can bridge a gap, it cannot replace the economy. And while their next moves will become increasingly exotic and aggressive, it will without a doubt at least come with long term scarring on the economy, if not outright damage upon implementation. Liquidity cannot replace solvency, and that’s something we’re starting to notice in such places as delinquency rates across CMBS’s.
And wall street will finally have ‘fundamentals reassert’ as second quarter results come in with expectations grim as the hospitals overwhelmed with foolish policies playing out in real time.
But let’s make one thing clear: New York proved that if we had simply waited an extra few weeks, been diligent with social distancing, and bothered to wear a mask we would be in a true recovery summer where businesses would have an opportunity to take in enough money to make through a long winter. That’s not going to be the case anymore through the summer. Long dated puts are all but guaranteed at this point.
So, what are the moves?? First, get the FUCK out of cruise lines and airlines if you’re still in. You made a lot of money defying everyone with the stock going up, congratulations. Take profits. Don’t be an idiot. Tourism and travel will come back, but not before summer ’21 at the earliest, and many of the companies we know today won’t be around to take reservations. Border closings will be up for quarters at this point, let’s just be realistic about that.
Second, Vix calls are the way. They are a cheap hedge that pay out huge and can pay for many bullish bets gone wrong in a portfolio. Full blown WSB should consider buying UVXY calls.
Third: Realize that there’s so much credit and debt issued out to risky companies that we may have a serious problem in the coming months with defaults. At the same time this debt has been issued, debt downgrades are soaring. You wanna see the stock market tank? Two sizable S and P companies file for bankruptcy and the market wakes up from its wet dream to realize that stocks, are in fact, the riskiest asset to buy.
I understand that bearish sentiment is usually great for being a contrarian indicator to buy. This is the exception to that rule, as we are not in a financial crisis, we are in a pandemic where half the populous won’t accept facts. This time, the bears will be right.
If remember one thing from this post in the proceeding months, remember this: just because a phenomena isn’t happening to you, doesn’t mean the phenomena isn’t severely effecting others.
Positions: Vix calls 9/18-12/15, XLF Puts dated longer than six months, GE puts, APT shares, hedges in renewable sectors, cash, long dated GLD calendars
submitted by astrophysics23 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

$TER Earnings Play Semiconductor: NEXT 10 BAGGER

Alright mates, if you remember anything about the $MU earnings hype then this is for. Micron Technologies a semiconductor (processor for normies) company destroyed earnings as more people demanded tech during the Work-From-Home period. During earnings INTC and AMD didn't fare too well in Q1 because WFH only started in the latter half of march, but people have been WFH for the whole Q2!!!
We all know demand for semiconductors, processors, and tech have skyrocketed during Q2 as the rest of the economy has done absolute dogshit. Betting on a single chip company: Nvidia, Texas Instruments, Intel Corp, etc. might be a bit risky because we don't know how they performed individually as companies. However we know their supply lines have increased production so we ought to look to the Semiconductor supplier that serves all these giants: Teradyne Technologies.
Terdayne Tech ($TER) has beat earnings the past 40 quarters! Literally every quarter analysts set some retarded number above what they should earn but they destroy it every time. WHY? Simple, they have gained an edge and concentration in the industry. The company was founded by geniuses at MIT who wanted to make faster computers and on average every 3 years they acquire a significant competitor in the semiconductor supply industry and by merging increase overall profit margins. This is literally the supply-side tech Amazon.
Needless to say, last quarter they smashed EPS estimates of $0.82 a share with $1.0 a share! This quarter analyst autists are expecting only $1.02 a share for them. That's literally retarded, demand has skyrocketed all across the industry and because of Micron's destructor earnings report we already know that. What we don't know is how high TER can go.
Technically yes, TER is ATH, however technical indicators (RSI, CCI) show that is not overextended yet. The company posts earnings after hours July 21st, 2020. The current price is $87 with a Mkt. Cap just shy of 15 billion. This company can easily be worth $50 billion with all of its high profile clients and increasing market concentration. I would say play the run up at the very least and play the ER if you are ballsy enough.
Don't believe me check these stories out:
https://newsheater.com/2020/07/09/teradyne-inc-ter-good-time-to-look-at-fundamentals/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adding-teradyne-nasdaq-ter-watchlist-142612515.html

TLDR; $TER $95c 08/21 and $100c 08/21
submitted by ld_southfl to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Aritzia - The next Lulu (Due Dilligence)

Aritzia - The next Lulu (Due Dilligence)
Hi Canadian friends, I posted the below DD on Artizia on WSB yesterday evening and thought I should share here as well, I have reformatted it slightly to conform to the rules of this sub.
Aritzia - What is it?
A Canadian semi-luxury fashion house and clothing company based out of BC that operates 94 stores in North America (predominantly in Canada, but with about 20 stores in the USA).
The company predominantly sells in-house brands (Babaton, Wilfred, etc.) but also stocks clothing/accessories from the likes of Levi's and Herschel among others. Aritzia has had an amazing success over the last few years, growing organic same store sales in the past 19 consecutive quarters, and posting a double-digit EBITDA and top-line sales CAGR since 2016 when the company went public.
The stock (ATZ.TO on the TSX) traded for an ATH of $26.12 shortly before the Feb crash and is currently sitting at $14.60 as of Friday's close.
Why is ATZ the next Lulu?
Aritzia first caught my attention from the countless packages that were being delivered to my upstairs neighbors (3 late-20s females), as well as from the various Tiktoks and Instagram haul stories that I had seen over the past few weeks. I was curious, could a clothing company that operates brick and mortar locations be doing well during quarantine? The answer is yes, and not only are they surviving the quarantine, but they are THRIVING.
Aritzia has one of the best-in-class E-commerce platforms of any retail clothing manufacturer in North America, let alone Canada. Their 2020 target was for 25% of all sales to be digital, I am sure that they have far exceeded that threshold so far this year. The company views their brick-and-mortar stores as showrooms for their product, but ultimately is focused on an omni-channel sales strategy. Customers are used to shopping both on-line and in-store and their tech-savvy target clientele of women aged 19-35 are the prime audience to be spending their CERB and Trump Bux on the latest line of summer lounge and athletic wear for at-home delivery.
Aritzia's most popular market is BC, where recently CoVID restrictions have been lessened, and Aritzia stores have started reopening. The company has a well-thought-out approach on how to maintain customer safety for the remainder of the crisis which can be found here:
https://business.financialpost.com/news/retail-marketing/sorry-maam-that-dress-is-in-quarantine-how-clothing-stores-are-prepping-for-a-strange-new-reality
Given their track-record of growth, the re-opening of their key markets, and their best in class E-commerce and social media marketing, I think that ATZ is a slam-dunk to become the Lulu in the coming weeks/months.
Grass roots due-diligence
Customer Surveys:
I asked over 20 females of varying ages, cultural backgrounds, locations in Canada, and levels of economic status a few key questions about Aritizia.
  • What is your opinion of Aritzia as a brand?
    • Unanimously, the feedback was positive. Respondents noted that they predominantly switched from fast-fashion brands such as Zara to shopping at Aritzia because their styles are more timeless and were of high-quality materials. They also cared a lot about the company's sustainable fashion mindset, and the various community donation and social cause campaigns that are frequently at the forefront of Artizia's media presence
    • To gauge the response from non-Canadian residents on how Aritizia is performing in the US I reached out to a number of Americans (predominantly in California and Texas), the response there was mixed, most had heard of the brand (impressive given its retail footprint of 20 stores) but most had not shopped there recently. Nevertheless, it gives long-term support on the brands growing awareness in the US, which is one of the company's next big bets.
    • Below is a response from a BC resident (early 20s, white) on why she shops online at Aritzia:

https://preview.redd.it/adxto0p6orz41.png?width=1085&format=png&auto=webp&s=aedc795eef9f2ee1459159de687fbea9945f17ce
  • Have you or your friends shopped more online at Aritzia than you did prior to the CoVID crisis? If so, why did you do so?
    • Almost unanimously, respondents claimed to have shopped online at Aritzia more during the quarantine than prior, mostly because of the style of clothing that Aritzia specializes in (lounge and athletic wear... do we want to guess why Lulu is doing so well?) but also because of an overall desire to engage in retail therapy. Many noted that although online spending increased at Aritzia, it did not for other products (with the notable exception of Sephora).
    • The below response from one of my co-workers (mid-20s affluent white Canadian) is not unique in its description of the level of online shopping going on right now at Aritzia:

https://preview.redd.it/w7fn92i8orz41.png?width=1033&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5f8a9ad708ef3cc4b87c22a486c3264eec9ea93
  • Have you experienced any stock-outs on products online? And if so, are they back in stock quickly?
    • This question was asked to assess if there are any supply chain constraints in Aritzia's ability to service the high level of demand
    • Respondents claimed that while some products were unavailable, it was only due to them being on pre-order (ie. not released yet). This leads me to believe that if Aritzia does have inventory issues, they are not widespread and they are able to disguise them well as pre-orders potentially further increasing hype
Other Grass Roots DD:
As stated earlier, the majority of Aritizia's sales occur in the province of Brittish Columbia, where most of their retail stores are located (approx 20% of the system). BC was one of the early provinces hit by CoVID and only saw 2400 cases in relation to Canada's 78,000 (3.1% of cases for 14.3% of the population).
I wanted to ensure that what I was hearing from my social circle, was accurately being represented by actual deliveries in the market they are most highly penetrated in. I was able to get in contact with a Fedex driver that works in Surrey BC, he was able to back up the previous survey statements by saying that almost 1 in every 2 packages of clothing he delivered over the last 2 weeks was Aritizia, and that was not the case prior to CoVID. Unfortunately this is a sample size of 1, and represents a very small area of their operations, but nevertheless, it does help to strengthen my thesis.
To further support my research, the following was posted on their Twitter account on Friday, during an event they were hosting to sell Front-line worker themed merchandise:
https://preview.redd.it/tnxwwlaaorz41.png?width=945&format=png&auto=webp&s=928c59e370b0b09822e3fe549eedf1dc0366a623
In summary, from the testimonials of Aritizia customers, the real world experience of a delivery driver in BC, and the company's own reports on their website traffic, the company is without a doubt seeing unprecedented online demand for their products.
Financials
Here is where the DD gets juicy as Aritzia has one of the cleanest and healthiest balance sheets I have ever seen.

https://preview.redd.it/jvgffd0corz41.png?width=972&format=png&auto=webp&s=97402dd7509564195517ec49ce1991cc777cc9ab
The first thing to point out is the companies healthy cash position, the entirety of Artizia's long-term debt is entirely covered by their current cash on-hand.
The other thing to note is the large change in lease liabilities and right-of-use assets from the same period last year. This is driven by an accounting treatment change whereby the entirety of the companies lease obligations over the committed term of their head-lease must be included as a liability on their balance sheet, with the offsetting right-of-use asset representing their remaining tenancy on their retail locations.
2 points here:
  1. the current portion of lease liabilities (C$58m) does not present as a cash-flow issue as almost all of the major commercial real-estate companies (Choice Properties, CT REIT, Rio Can, etc.) are all offering rent-deferral for commercial tenants over a 3-yr period. This coupled with their healthy cash position, the availability of a C$100m revolver, and their growing online sales, materially remove all liquidity risk in the near term
  2. Backing out leasehold obligations as they are not true-debt in the conventional sense, the company has a debt-to-EBITDA of >1.3x, which is below the retail industry average of 2.5x and a healthy debt-to-assets of ~0.3x
I wont go over any analysis of their earnings history and revenue growth as it is pretty self-explanatory, but here are the charts from their latest 10-k here:

https://preview.redd.it/q0s4phodorz41.png?width=448&format=png&auto=webp&s=a865c363acc77e01498c89df183a9c7195091cf7
https://preview.redd.it/3tsrmwteorz41.png?width=456&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f5b40f6dcb12b7e60392fbd98c5889e7bdeea8f
Conclusion
Aritizia is a healthy company with growing revenues and EBITDA that has managed to capitalize greatly on its E-commerce platform over the last few months. Currently the share price is trading at a point that hasn't been seen since June 2018. The outlook for the company is arguably stronger now than it was pre-crisis, as in addition to the points I covered above, many women's clothing retailers have declared bankruptcy leaving a bigger piece of the pie for the remaining incumbents.
The Aritzia earnings call is 5/28 but will only cover their Q4 which ended March 1st 2020, there will be no CoVID impact on these results; however, I still strongly believe that with strong FY20 guidance, the stock could recover back to its early-2020 levels. I recommend either longer term OTM calls with expiry in October in order to guarantee the impact from my grass-roots DD is priced in, or betting on the June expiry options in anticipation for strong guidance.
submitted by Neptonrs to CanadianInvestor [link] [comments]

DD: Covid cases are spiking...but buy these instead of SPY puts!

DD: Covid cases are spiking...but buy these instead of SPY puts!
Hello fellow Autists! Longtime reader, first DD post for me. Like the rest of you, I see the writing on the wall with the spiking cases in Florida, Arizona, California, Texas (I am in Houston), etc. and want to profit from the next market move. I believe many of these states will be slow to respond with effective quarantine measures, and anecdotally I have seen very limited compliance with social distancing and mask guidelines. Due to the long incubation period of SARS-CoV-2, the case count spike we are seeing is most likely from exposure 2-3 weeks ago, and opportunities for spread have only increased since then. Additionally, a large percentage of the population is unable to interpret widely available public data and believes the increased case count is a fabrication because "we are testing more". However, a linear regression of the data for Texas shows the percent of tests that come back positive has increased from an average of ~4% 30 days ago to ~12% now, while the average number of tests have only increased by 10-20%. It is very clear from the data that we are seeing community spread at an exponential rate. Many will not come to this realization and alter their behavior until one of their loved ones becomes very sick. This will allow several more weeks of community spread to go on before R0 is brought back below 1. If the death count gets high enough, fear will take over and many will shelter in place again, either voluntarily or by mandate. The V-shaped recovery thesis becomes much harder to defend at this point, to say the least.
For those of you still reading, you are probably thinking "I know all of this, how do I make those sweet, sweet tendies, fuckface?". Most of you are banking on SPY puts, but I think you might have better odds at a roulette table. The Fed has killed price discovery, and can severely restrict the risk/reward ratio of bearish positions with literally an infinite arsenal. The retail investors know this and will buy any dips, and any new shelter-in-place orders gives Jerome a fantastic excuse to fire up the digital printer again. Don't fight the Fed, and don't bet against a retail-mania driven bubble. However, the Fed is not interested in propping up the price of oil (gasp!).

Chart with colors and lines and shit so you know I is tarded
West Texas Crude dropped from a pre-COVID high of $65/bbl to futures at negative $37/bbl as a result of the demand destruction from worldwide quarantines. During this same period, an ETF that inversely tracks crude at a 2x clip, SCO, went from $12 to an intra-day peak of $67. SCO spiked twice more in the following days as crude underwent wild price swings. Fast-forward to today. Crude just formed a double-top chart pattern $40.50, exactly at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level from it's January 2020 peak to it's April 20th low. This all-time low occurred an entire month after SPY bottomed on March 23rd, and this is because crude prices are actually driven by...wait for it...supply and demand. In other words, crude is still driven by fundamentals, while the stock market is (currently) not. In fact, government bailouts of the struggling US shale oil companies would only allow them to continue to flood the market, further driving down the price of oil.
The US Energy Information Administration has forecasted 2H 2020 crude prices to average $37/bbl based on a V-shaped recovery (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php). We are currently at $40/ bbl based on OPEC+ compliance and recovery optimism, and we aren't even into Q3. There are too many variables for me to accurately predict actual crude demand in a W-shaped scenario as subsequent infection spikes slow the world's energy demands down again, but a gain in crude stocks will immediately send prices falling. I would expect crude to look for support near the 50% retracement level around $32/bbl, which would push SCO approximately 40% higher than current due to the daily compounded 2x leverage. Another wave of government mandated lockdowns would likely see crude fall to $25 or below, which would put SCO at around $44. Another Oil-geddon scenario would put SCO -at $60 or more.

EIA 2021 Forecast
Risks
Nothing boosts oil prices like a foreign conflict, and tensions have certainly been on the rise this year. An airstrike on a tanker would be a bad headline for this position. Also further OPEC+ cuts would not be good news for me, but many of the participating countries are facing recessionary pressure and may violate their agreements to attempt to save their own budgets. If I am missing any other risks, please let me know.
TL;DR
COV-SARS-2 is once again pressuring global energy demand. The Fed can fuck your SPY puts, but might actually hurt oil prices. Go long on SCO or go with UCO puts. Choose expiration and strike price per your risk tolerance.
Buying SCO directly will decouple the risk associated with trying to time the market. But I know how safe you guys like to play it, so load up on those puts! 🚀🚀🚀
Trade Updates
6/24, 10:00 - I have 7,000 shares of SCO cost averaged in at $17.50. After peaking at $41.62 yesterday, WTI is now trading below $39 on news that crude stocks are building while COVID cases continue to rise exponentially in parts of the US and the world.
6/24, 12:15 - RSI hit oversold on the bounce, so I bought 2,000 more shares. Shaping up to be an excellent day. 10% plus daily gains on an almost 200k position with lots more room to run. Also interesting to note that crude stocks actually gained today even before second wave demand destruction is here. Oil is down over twice as much as SPY for the reasons explained above.
6/25, 7:30 - WTI is down another 2% in pre-market on second wave fears. $37 was a level of support for June 9-17th, and we are right up against it again. If we break through today the next level is at $34.50 for another 15% or more of profits.
6/25, 9:00 - WTI bounces HARD off of the $37 support level on news that continuing unemployment claims dropped slightly. Lesson learned: take partial profits when prior levels of support are reached and buy back in after either support is breached with conviction or next level of resistance is met.
6/26, 8:00 - WTI durdled at the $39 resistance level overnight and is now falling hard pre-market. Looks like I may have a chance to try the partial profit-taking strategy above later today.
6/26, 14:55 - Another strong day, but we did not retest the $37 WTI level again. I took some partial profits (4,000 shares) at end of the day and will watch oil prices through the wknd. As predicted, Texas is already rolling back re-opening plans and cases continue to build exponentially all over the South. South America and India are showing textbook exponential rises as well. I also started some positions in AHPI and APT to play the potential mandatory mask laws. So far the trade is up over $15k.
6/29, 9:30 - Oil is recovering on more economic bullishness. I was stopped out of the rest of my position at $18.50. I will let the dust settle and find another entry point later this week.
7/5 - Several states have rolled back re-opening guidelines as cases continue to grow exponentially. I will be watching WTI action overnight to see if a bearish head and shoulders pattern will complete.
submitted by HypnoticStrix to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Will the Green Bay Packers win OVER/UNDER 9 games? By University Stats Prof!

1. Introduction

Matt LaFleur’s first season as Green Bay’s head coach has to be considered a success. He led the team to a 13-3 record, which secured the NFC North title.

The Packers held off the Seahawks to a 28-23 home win in the first round of the playoffs, but were ousted by the Niners in a brutal 37-20 thumping (a game in which the Packers dugged themselves into an early 27-0 hole).

2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)

Aaron Rodgers will be entering his 16th NFL season. He had another excellent year with a 26-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and over 4,000 passing yards. He finished as the 7th-best QB in the league according to PFF ratings.

At 36 years old, he is likely to have a few good years left. After all, Drew Brees and Tom Brady posted nice statistics in their late thirties.

Rodgers has been very durable throughout his career, but he’s not invincible either. Tim Boyle was the backup plan last year, and the team needed to upgrade the position while starting to think about the post-Rodgers era.

Still, drafting Jordan Love was the most questionable and talked-about pick in this year’s draft. People expected the Packers to go with a veteran backup QB. Rodgers has mentioned several times he wants to play in his forties; he can still offer a good five years of solid play in the frozen tundra.

Love has possesses great size, throws with velocity and he’s very mobile. The main knock on him is the decision-making and inconsistency.

As a sophomore, he threw 32 TD passes versus 6 interceptions. He regressed a lot last year by posting a mediocre 20:17 TD:INT mark. Granted, his surrounding cast was very weak and he had to go through a coaching change.

Love can throw from many different arm angles; he reminds people of Patrick Mahomes in this regard. He can throw a fastball or a soft touch pass.

Quick note: he almost quit football when he was 14 years old after his dad committed suicide. However, he knew his dad would want him to keep playing, so he did just that.

2.2 Running Backs (RBs)

Aaron Jones is a top running back in this league. Along with Jamaal Williams, they form a lethal duo.

Including the playoffs, Jones ended up scoring 23 touchdowns in 18 games. His 19 regular season scores were the second most in Packers history. His numbers have increased in each of his first three years as a pro. He is also excellent as a pass catcher.

Despite playing in the shadow of Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams still finished as the 17th-best RB based on PFF rankings. He does not seem like a lead back, but he’s a perfect change-of-pace guy. Much like Jones, he can do some damage as a receiver as well.

Williams has been a steady performer thus far in his career. He has rushed for 450-550 yards in each of his three seasons, while catching a minimum of 25 balls. He has 15 total TDs over this three-year span.

If you thought GM Brian Gutekunst made a strange move by drafting QB Jordan Love in the first round, he doubled down with another head scratcher in the 2nd round when he took A.J. Dillon.

Message to Mr. Gutekunst: Aaron Rodgers needed pass catchers, not a third running back! I really don’t get this pick either. I’m not saying Dillon won’t be good in the NFL; only time will tell. However, it clearly wasn’t a position of need for the Packers.

Dillon is a power back who rarely breaks off huge runs. He racked up big numbers in three seasons in Boston College. He’s unlikely to become a three-down starter, especially since he’s not a good pass catcher. He will likely be used sporadically as a rookie.

2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)

Davante Adams is one of the best at his position. He had a streak of three straight seasons with at least 10 TD receptions snapped last year, but he still caught 83 passes for 997 yards in 12 games (he missed four games because of a toe injury).

Outside of Adams, all pass catchers appeared lost on the field. None of them developed a good chemistry with Rodgers.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling was a huge disappointment last year. He showed promise as a rookie with over 500 receiving yards. Here’s a jaw-dropping statistic: after Week #7, MVS did not get more than 19 receiving yards in any meeting. That’s awful.

One of the guys benefiting from Valdes-Scantling’s poor play was Jake Kumerow. He got more playing time than expected, but still only caught 12 passes. He is closing in on 30 years of age and is limited as an athlete, so he’s not a long-term answer for sure.

Allen Lazard was also thrown into action far more than expected. He finished second in terms of receiving yards for Green Bay, but let’s face the reality: the undrafted guy remains more of a #3 or #4 WR for any team.

Geronimo Allison was another bust last year. His top performance over the last 12 games (including the playoffs) was a meager 33 receiving yards. He left for another NFC North team, the Detroit Lions.

In other words, the #2 role is wide open. The team hopes newly acquired Devin Funchess can step into that role. The former second rounder had his best season in 2017 with the Panthers with a 63-840-8 stat line. He signed with the Colts last year, but played just one game before breaking a collarbone. He will be 26 years old this season and provides an interesting prospect for the Packers.

2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)

We’re not done talking about 2019 busts. Jimmy Graham was one of them. He clearly looks washed. He received the lowest grades of his 10-year career, and deservedly so. The Packers released him and he signed a few days later with the Bears (a horrible mind-boggling two-year, $16 million contract).

Marcedes Lewis received surprisingly good marks from PFF. If you look into the numbers, the good grade occurred mainly because of efficient run and pass blocking. He’s not much of a pass catcher and he will be 36 years old when the season begins.

Robert Tonyan will also be in the mix, but the guy that has the best chance to break out as a receiver in 2020 only caught three passes last year (all in the playoffs): Jace Sternberger. Taken in the third round of the 2019 draft, Sternberger was a threat at Texas A&M in college. He missed most of the regular season because of injuries, but the door is wide open with Graham’s departure.

We might also see third-round rookie Josiah Deguara. He has a great motor and plays extremely hard. He’s undersized as a tight end, though.

2.5 Offensive Line (OL)

The Packers had a pretty solid offensive line in 2019. All five starters managed to play at least 84% of the offensive snaps. And they all finished above-average according to PFF ratings!

The bad news, however, is the Bryan Bulaga left for the Chargers. Despite turning over 30 years old, he still played at a high level.

The Packers decided to replace him by signing Rick Wagner, formerly of the Lions. Wagner’s PFF grades from 2016 to 2018 were as follows: 74.0, 75.2 and 71.4. Last year, his play deteriorated a lot and he was tagged with a 59.0 grade. He finished as the #61 tackle among 81 guys.

I like the fact that the team is returning four out of five guys, but replacing Bulaga with Wagner has to be viewed as a downgrade.

2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE

The Packers offense finished in the middle of the pack in points scored per game. Barring major injuries, I expect about the same production in 2020.

The QB and RB situations remain the same.

Adding Funchess is not a huge move, but it won’t hurt. The team clearly needs someone to step up opposite of Davante Adams. At tight end, losing Jimmy Graham means close to nothing since he was so ineffective. Sternberger might bring a nice contribution, but we can hardly expect him to be a game-breaker.

Finally, the OL will take a dip with the loss of Bulaga. I don’t believe Rick Wagner can do better than him.

All in all, I view the additions/departures as a slight negative for Green Bay, but having so many starters returning to the lineup for a second straight season is always a good thing in the NFL. For these reasons, I expect a similar output as 2019 from this unit.

Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable

3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)

Kenny Clark had a fantastic season! He is one of the best interior rushers in the NFL. He recorded six sacks for the second straight year, and PFF ranked him as the 13th-best interior linemen out of 114 qualifiers.

The same nice comments cannot be made about Dean Lowry. He had the worst season of his four-year career as a pro. He did not post a single sack and wasn’t great against the run either.

Reserve Tyler Lancaster is only there to provide some depth. He isn’t particularly good in any aspect of the game.

The team did not make any move regarding this position during the offseason.

3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)

During the last offseason, the Packers acquired two Smiths: Za’Darius and Preston. They burst onto the scene and got 13.5 and 12 sacks, respectively.

Obviously, both received high marks for their pass rushing abilities, but Preston finished as an average linebacker overall because of mediocre run defense and poor coverage.

Kyler Fackrell was a huge disappointment in 2019. After racking up 10.5 sacks in 2018, he only got one in 2019! He signed a one-year deal with the Giants.

First-round pick Rashan Gary wasn’t necessarily impressive during his rookie season. He played 23% of the snaps, while obtaining two sacks but very pedestrian marks from PFF (an overall 55.8 grade, which is near the bottom among edge defenders).

3.3 Linebackers (LBs)

Green Bay lost its leader in tackles from the past three years, Blake Martinez. After starting 61 of the last 64 Packers games, Martinez decided to join the New York Giants. He had the second-most tackles in the league last year, but don’t be misled by that number. Martinez still finished slight below-average (52nd out of 89 LBs) because of poor play against the run.

The Packers also lost some depth at the position when B.J. Goodson left for Cleveland.

Green Bay picked up a linebacker from the Browns roster: Christian Kirksey. He was picked in the 3rd round of the 2014 before being involved in all 16 games from his first four seasons in the NFL. However, he has been plagued with injuries over the most recent two years; he played 7 games in 2018 and only 2 games in 2019.

He is also capable of racking up tackles, as shown by his 2016 and 2017 seasons where he obtained 146 and 138. His PFF grades during his first four seasons varied between 61.9 and 69.3. Just to give you a rough idea, a 65.0 rating would have been good for 29th place out of 89 LBs.

3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)

Jaire Alexander has done the job as the #1 corner. He has obtained 72.4 and 71.2 marks from PFF during his first two seasons, which is well-above average. He’s so-so defending the run, but his coverage skills are very good.

The number two corner, Kevin King had five interceptions last year after getting just one over his first two years as a pro. He did show some improvement after two rocky years. He finished 2019 as a middle-of-the-pack corner.

Tramon Williams played 74% of the snaps and had a surprisingly good season despite his age. He will be 37 when the 2020 season begins. He is currently a free agent and it remains to be seen if the Packers bring him back or not.

In summary, Alexander and King are both pretty young and could still be improving, but Tramon Williams provided quality play and it’s uncertain if someone else can pick up the slack.

3.5 Safeties (S)

Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage were the top two guys here.

Along with Za’Darius and Preston Smith, the Adrian Amos was another excellent signing by the Packers during the 2019 offseason. Amos had been a reliable guy in Chicago for four seasons, and he continued to excel in the frozen tundra.

After being selected as the #21 overall pick in the 2019 draft, Darnell Savage did show some flashes as a rookie last year. He finished as the #47 safety among 87 qualifiers, which is very satisfying for a rookie. He earned nice marks in coverage (77.4), but horrible ones against the run (37.7).

Will Redmond will be back as the number three safety. He’s not starter material for sure.

2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE

Most of the starters are returning in 2020. That’s the good news.

The team lost their leader in tackles, Blake Martinez, as well as pass rusher Kyler Fackrell and CB Tramon Williams.

The only acquisition worth of note is Christian Kirksey. Him not having played very much during the last two seasons brings some question marks.

The Packers defense struggled against the run last year, and there’s no reason to believe that will change in 2020. Green Bay still finished 9th in points allowed, which was a very acceptable result.

Unfortunately, a decrease in effectiveness is expected and I predict this unit will end 2020 as a middle-of-pack defense (12th – 19th in points allowed).

Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade

4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Green Bay Packers are expected to win 9 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?

Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:

Here are the results (excluding the simulated years where the Pack won exactly 9 games, since in those cases your bet would have tied):

Estimated Probability Sportsbook Odds ROI
OVER 9 WINS 51.4% bwin +115 +10.5%
UNDER 9 WINS 48.6% Heritage Sports +100 -2.8%
Tip: Bet OVER 9 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +10.5%
Rank: 25th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -106

Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Packers’ 16 regular season games:
HOME: -6 vs ATL, -10 vs CAR, -4.5 vs CHI, -6.5 vs DET, -11.5 vs JAX, -3 vs MIN, -2.5 vs PHI, -3.5 vs TEN.
ROAD: 0 @ CHI, -2 @ DET, 0 @ HOU, +2.5 @ IND, +3 @ MIN, +5.5 @ NO, +6.5 @ SF, +2.5 @ TB.

Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.

TOMORROW: I'll talk about the team whose ROI is the 24th-highest in the league, the Pittsburgh Steelers!

Did you like this write-up? If so, comment below! I'd like to know YOUR opinion on what to expect from the Packers' 2020 season!

Professor MJ
submitted by David-MJ to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Clubhouse Games: 34 Frustrations

The more I play Clubhouse Games the more annoyed I get over how phoned-in it is. It looks great but I’d rather have worse graphics if it meant better gameplay.
I have about 80 hours in the game so far. I’ve played everything at least a few times: online and not, with friends or strangers. At a certain point, the novelty of the game wears off and your left with something incredibly subpar. Nothing about this game really feels broken but nothing feels incredibly polished either (except for the graphics but they’ve even managed to mess those up). I know I’m about to list off a bunch of minor annoyances but I don’t think expecting a first party Nintendo game to feel like it’s worth $40 is too much to ask.
I am interested in people’s opinions so I’ll try to keep things organized.
Clubhouse Games
  1. There are no global options whatsoever, and individual game options need to be set and reset often. You can’t change the volume for sound effects or music, you can’t turn the announcer off. It’d be nice to be able to disable intros, set all games to the hardest difficulty, or set favorites. Things like that wouldn’t be all that difficult to put in and would only make the experience better for everybody.
Single System
  1. Why does the game start with the worst possible UI option? Unless you love mancala, having games set up in a line isn’t useful (and even then you may want to play something else from time to time). You have to press X to change the menu every single time. The line is a cool presentation but it shouldn’t be the default.
  2. There is no way to sort games. They are not arranged in any particular order. It’d be cool if they were organized alphabetically or by age or region or players or game type but instead we get them loosely thrown together.
  3. Just to get this out the way now, there are not enough games for 3 or 4 people, despite a lot of these being games that support that many players.
Dots and Boxes
  1. Full analogue control is unnecessary. There should be the option to use the D pad to navigate the grid. Also this is an incredibly bare game for what is essentially color and paper. Being able to change the size and shape of the play space would be nice, as would different visual options.
Yacht Dice
  1. Mostly fine, the fact that it doesn’t snap to the category with the most points is weird.
Hex
  1. Same aesthetic complaint as D&B. Otherwise it’s fine and the grid based movement feels way better.
Hare and Hounds
  1. Why is there no option to randomize which player is which? That’s literally what happens online.
Chinese Checkers / Ludo
  1. Why can’t you pick your own color?
Shogi / Mini Shogi / Hanafuda
  1. Why aren’t Global and Classic purely cosmetic? Like, why do both players have to use the same setting? Just make it so each player can use the version they’re most comfortable with in the same game. This is a bigger problem online where they’re considered two different games.
Last Card
  1. The option to draw 1, or draw until you have a matching card should be in here, which is a pretty common house rule.
  2. Where you sit at the table doesn’t change nor can you can’t change the total number of players (uno itself can support up to 10 people). This makes friend matches somewhat boring because you’re always seated next to them.
  3. Declaring last card and playing the selected card should be the same action. It’s not like people still wouldn’t mess it up.
Blackjack
  1. This game is broken. You can go negative, which means there’s no incentive to place a reasonable bet. Why not just start the player with 500 if they can rack up debt? This is especially strange because in Texas you lose if you run out of money.
Texas Hold ‘em
  1. The betting system is better but it’s not great. Why can’t we choose how much we want to bet?
President
  1. Are five rounds necessary? The only thing that matters is who wins the last game so why not have a one round option?
Speed
  1. The selection mechanic doesn’t make sense and doesn’t always cooperate, which is problematic for such a high intensity game. Why not map the four cards to buttons and put the deck selection on the triggers?
Matching
  1. Same as #5. There’s no advantage to full analogue controls here.
Takoyaki
  1. Combos should snap to the appropriate card automatically. You get nothing from having to cycle through to each card.
Pig’s Tail
  1. Analogue makes a little more sense here but digital should still be an option (or at least give us cursor sensitivity options).
Golf
  1. A practice mode would be nice, or the option to undo your last stroke at least.
  2. Unlike other golf games, your ball wont bounce across the hole if you putt too hard. This makes the final putt unexiting and almost useless.
  3. It’s not clear how high your shot arcs in relation to the rest of the field.
Billiards
  1. Why does aiming and shooting suck so hard? Why not map aim to the shoulder buttons and give us a power meter like Carrom?
Bowling / Darts
  1. Why aren’t more than 2 players supported? These are the party games.
Toy Curling
  1. Worse than pool in that aiming and power are the same action. Makes the game imprecise.
  2. We don’t need to be reminded how many shots are left every turn. “Last three” is sufficient.
Toy Baseball
  1. I have never had a successful match with this game against another person. Maybe it’s just me but the controls don’t work when playing against a human who will use every trick under the sun to strike you out. They should’ve just put NES or Wii baseball here.
Slot Cars
  1. Analogue sticks are not precise. I get why they’re here but buttons or even RC cars like in Mario Odyssey would feel better.
Fishing
  1. Have we learned nothing from Mario Party or Smash 3DS? Turning the stick in a circle like that isn’t fun or comfortable and I don’t want to give my joy con a reason to start drifting again.
Shooting
  1. Also broken. The fact that there’s nothing stopping you from just spamming shot takes any fun or challenge out of the game once you play against other people. Even limited ammo would work here.
Piano
  1. A wasted opportunity. Why aren’t any keys mapped to buttons?
Online
  1. This game, like the NSO libraries, runs poorly for no reason. I have a friend in Australia (which has a poor internet infrastructure). We can play more demanding games like Splatoon and Minecraft just fine but this online is almost unplayable.
  2. Players with poor connection should be locked out of the action games.
  3. There should be a way to quit out of a game without quitting the whole app. There’s no consequence for it—on anyone’s end because they just replace you with a CPU anyway—so why not.
I know I didn’t get everything but I’d like to hear your thoughts. How are you getting along with the game? Are these problems starting to bother you? Do you have different problems that I didn’t name? Let me know in the comments.
submitted by mierecat to NintendoSwitch [link] [comments]

DD with no finances and some just a little bit of conspiracy theory in it

The Corona situation is getting pretty bad again. Deaths aren't up, but that's delayed since corona doesn't kill people quickly. Its plain to see even for someone living in NYC, where the corona situation has improved, that stuff isn't getting better quickly in other parts of the US. People here in NY are tired of being bored at home, but also don't want to get to were Florida, Texas and California are again. The governors and other elected officials are feeling their seats get hotter. People are sick and on edge. Stocks will fall for a while as things lock up. There probably won't be a full lock down like China, but there will be some sort of stoppages. Like in gyms and restaurants. The state govenors have said no lockdowns, but as we have seen in NYC, the things the government says changes depending on what corona is doing to the country, and currently the country is getting fucked in the ass. Good news for gay bears.
 
But this won't last, every plague has eventually come to an end and things have always gone back to normal. This time we have the power of much more advanced technology and science has come a long way from the times of the black death and the Spanish flu. My long term view is that stocks will go up. Shocking I know. Things are looking like they will hit a turning point. When will that be?
 
In my opinion its coming soon. On the Senate/congressional website it says they are off until July 17. Thats a Friday. They dont work weekends. So I assume they'll be back to work on July 20th. Florida, Texas and maybe California should be sufficiently on fire at that point, with Trump not doing so hot in the polling, with the democrats already attempting to pass the heros act, and with the Republicans needing to not look divided from Trump as he has already said he supports stimulus, I believe a stimulus package will be highly likely by then. The markets might tank until then, but it'll go up bigly on the news.
 
And then it'll be all uphill from the announcement of the stimulus. Deaths will be up but with the new medicines available like remdesivir, which the US has bought all of, and dexamethasone which is cheap and available, they wont be up as much as they have been before. More medicine to combat it will become available, countries will not stop throwing money at this. Then there is the topic of the vaccine. The Oxford one that is part of operation warpspeed is showing promising results. Scientists have said that the its not a matter of if, but when. Even Fauci the biggest bear of all says this. The only way to make one faster would be to do unethical testing. The US would never do that, we have always treated our citizens with the respect they deserve. Stuff like testing syphilis on minorities would never happen here/s.
 
There is one country with the knowledge, money and lack of morals that will do it though. And that's China. They have had no problem harvesting organs from their prisoners to make a quick buck, even selling their hair. They have concentration camps full of prisoners that are just waiting to be experimented on. They are already testing their vaccines on their soldiers publicly, id bet my organs that they have and are still testing their coronavirus vaccines on their "expendable" population. They will probably have a vaccine out to their population before the US does, and they will not have the anti vaxx problem we do. They'll force their citizens to take it. Now whether Americans will take it depends on what our government does. Id say they'll give the go ahead that its safe. Trump needs this to go away to win. If he can find a way to get corona gone before the elections he wins. If America makes the vaccine, it was because he approved operation warpspeed.
 
Markets will rise like never before. If China makes the vaccine, he will say its safe, Fauci might say its safe after some american scientists go through the data, and people will take it. We don't need everyone to take it to reach herd immunity, enough people will have had it combined with the people who take the vaccine. Bonus that it will shore up relations with China. Markets will rally hard in this situation too, on the vaccine and improved relations with China because of our two countries finally coming together to combat a global crisis.
 
Tldr: Puts on corona, leap calls on HLT, MAR, BA, DIS, NCLH, BRK.B and RTX on July 17th or July 20th for 1-2 years out. Basically anything hospitality or travel
 
EDIT: 7/9 So far DD is on track. Hospitality and travel stocks going down. BA and RTX are as well. Even LMT. Cruise lines down too CCL earnings are coming up tomorrow. Big in my opinion, if CCL stock drops all other cruise lines will too. And will be telling for hospitality industry as a whole. It will let me know if the market has priced in bad earnings that we all know is coming.
Edit:;7/16 Going to wait until after HLT earnings to go into leaps. Maybe wait a day after. So would go in 7/22. All travel and hospitality stocks have risen greatly yesterday over vaccine pump, but i see a small rug pull coming, at least until the stimulus is confirmed. I want to get in before its a done deal. But I cant wait too long or people will begin buying the rumor.  
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/30/us-buys-up-world-stock-of-key-covid-19-drug&ved=2ahUKEwjM_JjA67HqAhXjgnIEHVJZBt8QvOMEegQIAhAD&usg=AOvVaw0v-BDKsFMf9M2Hxvngw29C&cf=1
 
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01824-5&ved=2ahUKEwicl72I5LHqAhXlhHIEHYpgAEsQFjAZegQIChAB&usg=AOvVaw0RNjuODPN9c-Erif9T2cqy
 
http://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/06/stanford-medicine-trial-tests-favipiravir-for-covid-19.html
 
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/28/847447200/medics-question-a-practice-that-might-speed-up-testing-of-a-coronavirus-vaccine
 
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.newsweek.com/lindsey-graham-fox-news-covid-19-stimulus-package-1515229%3Famp%3D1&ved=2ahUKEwjX8LOH7LHqAhVqoHIEHUooCEQQ0PADegQIAxBH&usg=AOvVaw3mMwWKa5tW3IFo0CyxD3_t&cf=1
 
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/07/01/second-stimulus-checks-trump/amp/&ved=2ahUKEwiC8eie7LHqAhVsmHIEHS16DPcQr_oDegQIBhAg&usg=AOvVaw032kvwyhDvkR1GP8p-CTWd
 
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/30/health/china-coronavirus-military-vaccine-intl-hnk-scli/index.html&ved=2ahUKEwjDn-Sr7LHqAhXYlnIEHZiuCBsQ0PADegQIBRAN&usg=AOvVaw2sTFR9d1zXtvND_Ne-d-oA&cf=1
 
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1018646&ved=2ahUKEwjKhrDl7rHqAhW7lXIEHds_AWoQFjALegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw2al8Ov_zmdU0guhbgFbOxh&cf=1
 
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/02/us/china-hair-uyghur-cpb-trnd/index.html&ved=2ahUKEwjwle2a8LHqAhWQoXIEHaRMBVUQ0PADegQIARAH&usg=AOvVaw29-dpycjRNk4CHZtmWoQ6W&cf=1
submitted by kex06 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Defending the Draft: Green Bay Packers

2019 OVERVIEW


The Green Bay Packers surprised just about everyone (except James Jones) with their successful campaign under first year HC Matt LaFleur. Before the season, he hired former Jaguars OC Nathaniel Hackett to fill the same role in his offense, and he elected to keep DC Mike Pettine who served in that capacity the year before under former HC Mike McCarthy.

The team ended the year 13-3 on the regular season, including a complete sweep of the division, plus a win against the Seahawks in the division round of the playoffs. Despite their success, there were many critics who considered them to be the worst 13-3 team in NFL history. The Packers were accused of "winning ugly" and not resembling a true contender. Those chickens would come home to roost in San Francisco as they were no match for the 49ers in the NFC championship game. The team gave a horribly flat performance on defense, plus an offense that had no answer to San Francisco's elite defensive front 7.

Even though they didn't achieve their Cinderella story, the Packers would go into the offseason with much of the starting roster returning intact for a chance at a second run in 2020. The roster is mostly comprised of players 27 or younger, and only three starters needed to be replaced from the prior season. The team is banking on the growth and development of their young players to help propel the team to that next level. Their upcoming schedule will be much more challenging than 2019's on paper, but working on building more consistency on both sides of the ball will hopefully produce a better overall "team" than the one which overachieved a year ago.

2020 FREE AGENCY


Departures:

This offseason saw the end of the road for two longtime Packers in Green Bay with RT Bryan Bulaga (EYE-WAH) and ILB Blake Martinez (aka pussyfucker69). They signed deals elsewhere after giving the team many years of consistent on field play. Replacing them will not come easy. Jimmy Graham, on the other hand, will not be greatly missed. His best games of the season came in the playoffs after two seasons of dropped passes, lazy routes, and non-existent blocking. (But at least he was better than Martellus Bennett.) The only other significant loss was Tramon Williams who played lights out as the nickel corner last year. At 36 years old, it is more likely the team will go with younger and cheaper alternatives to fill his role next season, but a return to the team isn't out of the question.

The contracts signed by Martinez and Bulaga, along with OLB Kyler Fackrell, should mean the Packers are in line to be rewarded three compensatory choices in 2021 in the 4th, 5th, and 7th rounds respectively. Bulaga's compensation is capped at a 5th rounder due to being a 10 year veteran.

* = former starter

Player Position New Team Contract
Bryan Bulaga * RT Chargers 3 yr / $30 mil
Blake Martinez * ILB Giants 3 yr / $30 mil
Jimmy Graham * TE Bears 2 yr / $16 mil
Kyler Fackrell OLB Giants 1 yr / $4.6 mil
B.J. Goodson ILB Browns 1 yr / $2.4 mil
Dan Vitale FB Patriots 1 yr / $1.3 mil
Jason Spriggs LT Bears 1 y $825 K
Geronimo Allison WR Lions 1 yr / $800 K
Ibraheim Campbell S Titans 1 yr / $750 K
Tramon Williams CB UFA NA
Jared Veldheer RT UFA NA
Additions:

The Packers used the $8 mil in cap savings they got back from releasing Jimmy Graham to add Christian Kirksey (ILB - Browns), Ricky Wagner (OT - Lions), and Devin Funchess (WR - Colts) once they were released from their former teams. Kirksey is an athletic ILB with 4.55 speed and playmaking ability, but he has missed substantial time due to injuries recently and only played in 9 games the last two years. Wagner has had one brilliant season with the Ravens in 2017 followed by two average ones with the Lions, but a starter is a starter. Funchess is a former 2nd round pick and still only 25, so hopefully he can finally reach the potential he has flashed now that he has Rodgers at the helm.

They did not sign a TE to replace Graham because the team will be using returning players instead. The favored starter is 2019 3rd round pick Jace Sternberger, after he missed most of his rookie season due to injuries. He is accompanied along with the returning ageless veteran Marcedes "Big Dog" Lewis (who is now famously known as the only 1st round player Rodgers has thrown a TD pass to).

By making these moves and essentially locking up their starters pre-draft, they allowed themselves some flexibility with their approach to how they would spend their picks.
*= projected starter


Player Position 2019 Team Contract
Christian Kirksey * ILB Browns 2 yr / $13 mil
Ricky Wagner * RT Lions 2 yr / $11 mil
Devin Funchess WR Colts 1 yr / $2.5 mil
Reggie Begelton WR CFL 3 yr / $2.3 mil
Treyvon Hester DT Redskins 1 yr / $850 K
Gerald Willis III DT Dolphins 1 yr / $675 K
Jamal Davis II OLB Dolphins 1 yr / $675K
Mason Crosby K Packers 3 yr / $13 mil
Marcedes Lewis TE Packers 1 yr / $2.3 mil
Tyler Ervin RB/RS Packers 1 yr / $1 mil
Will Redmond S Packers 1 yr / $750 K

2020 NFL DRAFT


1 (26) - JORDAN LOVE (QB - UTAH ST)
\pick acquired from Houston thru Miami for #30 and #133 overall*

The Packers shocked everyone by passing on a player who may have helped the team right away when they instead traded up for Utah St. QB Jordan Love. This has been an endless point of criticism and even ridicule since the draft ended. But this pick made a lot of sense at its core. I go into much greater detail in regards to this pick elsewhere, but here are the main points that led to this selection:


"I think it's always kind of been in my DNA that anywhere in the draft, if you have an opportunity to take a quarterback you really think can play, you need to consider it."
-Brian Gutekunst, GM of the Packers

Jordan Love is a 6'4 and 224 lb QB with large 10.5" hands and a rocket for an arm. He is a self-described playmaker, which is evident when you watch him on tape. At Utah St in 2018, Love put on a clinic, throwing for 3500 yards, 32 TD's, and only 6 INT's. This put him on the radar as a potential top 10 or even top 5 prospect heading into the 2019 season. Unfortunately, after a coaching change and losing 9 offensive starters, Love saw a major drop in his numbers (3200 yards, 20 TD's, and 17 INT's). Love started to develop some bad habits such as staring receivers down and forcing risky throws, which is what led to the spike in turnovers.

However, it needs to be mentioned that Jordan Love put the team on his shoulders all season. He frequently had limited choices available but to either try and make a play or take the sack. Had he not been dealing with this adversity, he probably would have heard his name called much sooner and the Packers would not have had a shot at him in the late 1st round.

"He’s not a bad decision-maker. That was one of my biggest pet peeves in the draft process was people calling that kid a bad decision-maker. He’s not. He’s a kid that’s played with nobody around him and he was competitive and he was trying to win football games. Did he force throws? Absolutely. Did he have to force throws? Absolutely. You didn’t see bad decision-making on ’18 tape, when he threw 32 touchdowns and six picks. You never heard those numbers brought up the whole process. All you heard was 20 touchdowns, 17 picks. Like, nobody ever went back and talked about ’18….. He is the only QB I’ve ever scouted who will be throwing into bigger windows in the NFL than he threw into in college.”
-Jim Nagy, Senior Bowl director and former NFL scout

Numbers aside, there are glimpses and flashes of his game that make you swear you are watching Aaron Rodgers himself. He flourishes when the play breaks down displaying the ability to throw off various platforms to keep the play alive. Love has that same gunslinger mentality that Patrick Mahomes had at TX Tech – no throw is impossible in their minds. And when I say that Jordan Love didn’t have any help, it isn’t just making an excuse. He was essentially the only threat Utah St. had on offense in 2019, so Love took it on his shoulders to will the team forward, similar to other top picks like Daniel Jones at Duke and Josh Allen at Wyoming.

As far as his fit with the Packers, clearly they have to like his arm talent and his hand size, along with his experience playing in frigid environments - those are three important boxes that need to be checked if a QB wants to succeed at Lambeau Field. One could argue that of all the QB's in this draft, Love may have the most upside just due to his physical traits but is also the least ready to play. I don't think he could have landed in a better position than on a team built to win championships with a future Hall of Famer to learn from.
2 (62) - AJ DILLON (RB - BCU)
According to Peter King, the Packers were trying to trade up in round 2 for one of two specific WR's. Once Chase Claypool was selected at #49, they stopped calling teams. We can take this to mean that at that point, the Packers felt all the impact players at WR in the draft were gone. The Packers were content to look for other ways they could improve the offense. The team did not want to simply draft a receiver just to say they took one. And that's where AJ Dillon comes in.
Even with the breakout season of Aaron Jones in 2019, there is reason to suspect the Packers view AJ Dillon as the long term primary RB in this offense. Unlike Jones who is a quick and elusive 5’9 and 200 lb RB, Dillon is a north/south runner with surprisingly light feet for his 6'0 and 247 lb frame. He has proven he can withstand the workload of a RB1 posting three 1,000+ yard seasons in college. Similar to Jordan Love, he did it without much of a supporting cast. He led the FBS in the amount of stacked boxes he was facing by a wide margin (46% of the time). He also led the FBS in yards after contact (over 800) because teams knew he was getting the ball but it just didn't matter - he ran it hard just the same. Dillon is best known for his balance and being able to keep himself moving through first contact. He is knocked by evaluators by his lack of presence in the passing game, catching only 21 career passes, but not being asked to do it isn’t the same as not being able to do it. Dillon also has a tendency of not exhibiting the patience to let the play develop, which leads to him missing opportunities for cut back lanes on occasion. These two things are hardly fatal flaws, and he can improve with proper coaching.
But why Dillon, and why Round 2? That seems to be what gets people scratching their heads the most. Well, the Packers love to draft athletes, and as far as RB prospects go Dillon is a rare player. He is bigger than Eddie Lacy and faster than Aaron Jones. Dillon posted the best SPARQ score (97%) among all RB's at the combine, and his speed score (117) was in the 97th percentile. Running 4.53 and jumping 41" should simply not be allowed from a RB who is also 247 lbs. I also believe the front office had Dillon rated extremely high on their board compared to other options at RB. Dillon and Jonathan Taylor (96% SPARQ) had to be the 1a and 1b of this class for the Packers. Gutekunst just can't help himself, he loves size and speed.
The Packers will also be facing a lot of difficult decisions with their group of free agents in 2021, which includes #1 RB Aaron Jones and #2 RB Jamaal Williams. Drafting Dillon makes it so the team can choose to keep one of those two next year, while potentially grooming their long-term starter. Now LaFleur has his own Derrick Henry that will help him run the kind of offense he wants to execute. Short yardage and goalline situations will be a different story in 2020 compared to the struggles a year ago. Frankly, fewer positions are as NFL ready as RB's are, and few of them are as rare of an athletic prospect as Dillon. He is likely going to be a big part of the offense moving forward. Especially in December and January when it is freezing cold and actual football begins.
3 (94) - JOSIAH DEGUARA (TE/HB - CINCINNATI)
The Packers missed on all the WR's that might have made a difference for them, but they were ready to find a pass catcher in an unconventional way. So at pick #94, with only two TE's selected at that point (Cole Kmet and Devin Asiasi), the Packers had their choice of player at the position. It is safe to say the Packers got their preferred one with Josiah Deguara.
This pick was considered a reach by most analysts when it was made, but context is important. Matt LaFleur was the QB coach in Washington in 2010 under Mike Shanahan. That year Chris Cooley, a 6'2 and 250 lb TE/HB, had 77 catches on 126 targets for 849 yards. That position was currently vacant on the Packers depth chart, so it can't be underestimated how integral this role could be going forward as LaFleur continues to shape the team to fit his philosophy.
Josiah Deguara is the perfect player to fill that Chris Cooley (or Kyle Juszczyk) role in this Shanahan-style offense. At only 6'2, Deguara played in-line TE 60% of the time in college because they tried to move him around to take advantage of his versatility. He played TE, HB, FB, and WR at Cincinnati, where he ended his career as the school record holder for catches at the position with 92 catches in 2 years. The former record holder was Travis Kelce, so he is in good company. It also just so happens that Mike Denbrock, the OC for Cincinnati, coached alongside Matt LaFleur at Notre Dame previously - I bet the two discussed together all the ways Deguara could be a factor within the Packers offense.
The main thing that I keep reading about Deguara is how great his character is both on and off the field. The Packers believe strongly in finding players who "carry the G", and Deguara is just a high effort, hard-working, bring-your-lunch-pail-to-work kind of guy that everyone wants to root for. He will play on all the special teams units, learn to play in whatever role the offense asks him to, and he will always give 100% effort. It would be premature to say Josiah Deguara is an impact player as a late 3rd round pick, but he is a wild card who could potentially open this offense up and take it in several new and creative directions.
P.S. LaFleur showed this play during one of his team meetings in 2019 as the prime example of what it means to never give up on a play (he starts at the top of the screen as a blocker, then chases the defender down to make the TD-saving tackle).
https://twitter.com/ethanthomthom/status/1254590868507557890?s=19
Six months later, the Packers selected him with the #94 pick. It is clear looking back that Deguara was meant to wear green and gold. LaFleur was more excited about this pick in his post-draft interviews than any other player chosen that weekend.
4 (133) - to Miami
*traded along with #30 overall to move up to #26 for Jordan Love
5 (175) - KAMAL MARTIN (LB - MINNESOTA)
Kamal Martin is one of those LB's that would have been talked about more had he not been battling injuries and been able to compete in the pre-draft functions. Injuries cut his season short to just 8 games, but he still finished with 66 total tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 sack, 2 FF, and 2 INT's - his knack of finding ways to always be around the ball had to stand out to Gutekunst. Jim Nagy, the director of the Senior Bowl, called Martin a top 3 senior LB and a steal for the Packers as a 5th round pick. He has prototypical size for a 3 down LB at 6'3 and 240 lbs along with 34" arms and an 81" wingspan. The Packers scouts estimated that he runs between 4.55 - 4.65 in the 40, but he wasn't able to participate in the drill while recovering from his knee injury.
Martin is a former high school QB, and he uses that experience on the defensive side to help give him a unique perspective of the action in front of him. He lined up at both OLB and ILB at Minnesota and was a playmaker at both positions. And that position versatility is what attracted the Packers to him. He will need to get stronger and play with better pad level, but there is a lot going for Martin as a prospect.
As the first defensive selection in the draft for the Packers, Martin will be given a chance to compete with other young players, such as Oren Burks, Ty Summers, and Curtis Bolton, for a chance to be the #2 ILB next to Christian Kirksey. Burks and Summers are two very athletic guys who have played mostly on special teams, and Bolton was a UDFA last year who made waves in preseason before getting hurt. This group is young, athletic, and horribly inexperienced, making it the most open of all the roster competitions on the team.
Kamal Martin is the definition of a sleeper who could have landed in a fortuitous situation based on the uncertainty surrounding the LB group in Green Bay. He is a proven playmaker who finds ways to get to the ball, and those instincts could serve him well as he fights for a spot. Martin is hoping to follow in the footsteps of Blake Martinez to become an every down starter as a day 3 selection.
6a (192) - JON RUNYAN JR (G/T - MICHIGAN)
*pick acquired from Raiders for WR Trevor Davis
The Packers have had a very positive track record selecting OL on day 3 of the draft. They had three picks to spend in the 6th round, and considering they have veterans with expiring contracts coming up and nothing but UDFA's as depth, they felt it was an area of the team that could use an infusion of new competition. They have a good shot of one of the next three players becoming a starter down the road.
With their first of three IOL choices in round 6, they selected Jon Runyan Jr who comes to the Packers with a great NFL pedigree (his father had a very long and successful career for the Oilers/Titans and Eagles). After being a backup OG for his first few seasons, Jr. made the switch to RT and then LT under the coaching of Ed Warriner who coached Packers center Corey Linsley at Ohio St. Jon Runyan would go on to start 25 games at LT for Michigan over the next 2 years, earning 1st team all-Big 10.
While Runyan is a bit smaller than you would like out of an NFL tackle (6'4 and 306 lbs with 33" arms and a 79" wingspan), his agility and athletic ability were near the top of the draft class. He had the 3rd best 3-cone time at 7.57, and his 40 time of 5.08 was 9th best in the class. His 10 yard split of 1.79 met the threshold that you want for OL by 0.01 (good enough by NFL standards and that's all that matters). Due to his size, Runyan is more of a pass blocker than run blocker at this point in his career. He excels by using his quickness and athleticism to keep up with dangerous pass rushers but sometimes struggles with moving bigger guys back in the ground game.
Runyan will compete at guard, which is what he was announced as during the draft, but his versatility makes him a potential swing tackle and utility guy in the early part of his career. Fortunately he comes from a zone blocking scheme at Michigan, which will help him adjust to the Packers version. A lot will depend on how well he transitions inside and how he makes the jump to the speed and complexity of the NFL. If he can make a similar leap like he made entering his junior season, the future looks very bright for him in the NFL.
6b (208) - JAKE HANSON (C - OREGON)
*pick acquired from Titans for OLB Reggie Gilbert
There is always something to be said when the Packers select a true center in the draft because they rarely do. Elgton Jenkins played 4 different positions at Miss St and JC Tretter played OT before the Packers moved him inside. The only true center Ted Thompson ever drafted was Corey Linsley - an athletically limited and undersized player but a consistent technician who played in a big time program at Ohio St.
Now, Linsley at 28 years old is heading into 2020 as the 6th highest paid member of the team and 3rd highest paid center in the NFL. He is also entering the final year of his contract. Next year is going to be judgment day for many starters on the team, and decisions will need to be made to see who will be offered an extension including David Bakhtiari (LT), Kevin King (CB), Aaron Jones (RB), and Kenny Clark (DT). The Packers may not have the cap space to keep Linsley around beyond this season. The Packers also dislike handing out third contracts to their players who may be starting to head towards the back end of their careers. That means the search to find a successor is part of the plans, and that leads us to this next pick.
Jake Hanson may not have had the flashiest combine (5.5 in the 40 at 6'4 and 303 lbs), but when it comes to centers, it is more about their technique and ability to make the right calls at the line. That being said, he did have 33 reps in the bench press which was #4 among all OL. Hanson comes to Green Bay as a 4 year starter who boasted 49 career starts. He was the anchor of one of the best lines in the country since he first won the job as a true freshman, and Oregon may not have been as successful without him in the middle making sure the assignments were correct.
Hanson plays with an incredible motor, even if he lacks the desired size to compete against linemen one on one, but the Packers' zone system should be able to hide some of those deficiencies. He has strong hands and a sticky grip (which I'm sure will make our division rivals happy), and he works well with guards in double teams. He still needs some fine tuning with his snap placement as he can occasionally misfire out of the shotgun. But as a developmental 6th rounder, Hanson can continue working on those techniques while learning behind one of the best technicians in the game. Not to mention he can use this valuable time on the scout team practicing with Jordan Love. Should the time come when both players are ready to start, they would have already developed a rapport thanks to their time on the practice field together.
6c (209) - SIMON STEPANIAK (G - INDIANA)
With the selection of Simon Stepaniak, the Packers believe they got a player who could have been selected as early as the 4th round had he not tragically torn his ACL last December. Stepaniak is the opposite of Runyan and Hanson - he is a tough-nosed mauler in the run game who likes to pick fights and look for people to punish. He played RG at Indiana, and it is likely with his 32" arms that he may be limited to play interior OL as a pro. His 37 reps (!!!) on the bench press in Indianapolis frequently showed up on tape where he routinely manhandled defenders in one-on-ones and would flatten other guys out on double teams. (The fact he could even do 37 reps while recovering from his surgery is astounding.)
His main issues will be dealing with poor agility when matched up against quicker speed rushers, where relying on his upper body strength alone won't be enough. Despite his athletic shortcomings, Stepaniak allowed a pressure on only 3.3% of passing plays per PFF. With some fine tuning of his game, there is potential that Stepaniak could become the top OL of the three the Packers selected in round 6.
Stepaniak resembles a guard in a power running scheme from 1993, who would rather be out hunting for defenders than settling back and waiting for them to come to him. In a way, this could be a pick for the future direction of the offense, especially after the Packers selected AJ Dillon and Josiah Deguara earlier. This shows a subtle shift in the offense away from 5 WR shotgun formations and hinting more towards pounding the rock to punish the new mold of smallefaster defenses. It makes sense that they would take a gamble on Stepaniak late this year. Even though he may wind up on the PUP/IR list, the Packers liked his talent this late in day 3.
7a (236) - VERNON SCOTT (S - TCU)
*pick acquired from Browns for OG Justin McCray and #244
Who the hell is Vernon Scott?
He was only Dane Brugler's 61st ranked safety out of 62 in the 2020 draft, of course! But really, this is a name that most people just shrugged their shoulders to and probably overlooked. Let me now be the one to introduce you to him. Vernon Scott is a player that is all about two things: versatility and upside.
At 6'2 and 206 lbs, he has the prototype size you are looking for in a modern defensive back. He wasn't invited to the combine, and his pro day was canceled hence why he was invisible to the draft community. His athletic testing will unfortunately remain a mystery, but the Packers estimated he ran a 4.40, which would be outstanding for a player at his size.
Scott was a one year starter at TCU who lined up all over the secondary. He was primarily a key contributor on special teams for all 4 years before taking over as a starter this past season. While Texas WR Devin Duvernay made him look silly in 2019 (seriously, don't watch the tape), Vernon Scott really started to come on towards the end of the year. In the last three games of the season he had 4 total takeaways, a sack, and a TD. He had a particularly strong game against Oklahoma where he made 7 tackles, a fumble recovery, and a 98 yard INT for a TD. He would finish the year with 44 tackles (4th on the team) and 7 PBU's (ranked 3rd).
Where did this sudden playmaking skill come from? Scott moved to the nickel corner role, and he was told to let loose. The Packers are clearly banking that his ability as a slot CB, while also having experience playing the other 4 positions in the secondary, will translate to the NFL and give him an edge to win a roster spot. Not often is a player drafted because of a 3 game stretch, but hey, it is the 7th round so why not? He joins a secondary that is led with Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos but was often exposed when other players such as Will Redmond had to see meaningful snaps. The team also allowed Ibraheim Campbell to walk this offseason who had been with the team for two years. Needless to say, the Packers liked the direction where Vernon Scott’s arrow was pointing, and the more competition in the secondary the better.
7b (242) - JONATHAN GARVIN (OLB - MIAMI)
*pick acquired from Ravens for RB Ty Montgomery
Jonathan "Spider" Garvin comes to Green Bay with a nice resume from his last two years at Miami. He is an impressive physical specimen at 6'4 and 263 lbs with 34" arms and an 80" wingspan. While his 4.82 probably didn't help him, when you watch the tape his explosiveness jumps off the screen - literally. His 36" vertical was #1 among edge rushers and DL at the combine.
Garvin put up 60 tackles, 17 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, and 5 pass breakups his sophomore season (not to mention a fumble returned for a TD) while playing across from Joe Jackson. That sort of production tends to get a player noticed, and so his junior season in 2019 was all about fighting for whatever he could get while dealing with the extra attention. Garvin would enjoy much of his time fighting off double- and triple-teams in 2019, which caused a dip in his overall numbers from the year prior. Garvin ended the season with just 37 tackles, 9 TFL, 5 sacks, 4 hurries, and 2 FF. However, his pressure rate of 14.8% was still 5th best in the ACC according to PFF.
The drop in production along with the 4.82 in the 40 is likely why he didn't hear his name called in the early part of day 3. Even so, at his size, length, and explosiveness, he could find a home as part of the rotation at OLB in Green Bay. Kyler Fackrell played over 400 snaps on defense as the #3 OLB last year while 1st round pick Rashan Gary played 245. Now that Fackrell left to join the Giants in free agency, Gary will presumably be in line to pick up the snaps left behind which still allows enough opportunities for Garvin to find a role as a situational pass rusher on defense if he can win the #4 spot.
Garvin comes to Green Bay with very similar measurables as Za'darius Smith. He has the strength to hold up on the edge but also the explosiveness off the line to get up field to rush the passer. Garvin has a lot of tools to work with, and having both the Smith's as mentors could go a long way as far as how he learns to master them. The OLB depth has a lot of juice on the team for once, and Garvin makes this group even more exciting.
7 (244) - to Cleveland
*traded along with OG Justin McCray for #236

OVERALL DRAFT EVALUATION

The Packers were in an interesting position heading into the draft, coming in as a 13-3 team without any major holes on the roster. All the starting spots were filled ahead of time, which already put this draft class at a disadvantage compared to other teams in the league. The rookies may not be relied upon to start or play much in 2020, barring an injury to someone ahead on the depth chart. It isn't too farfetched to think that the Packers could have selected 9 completely different players and would have received the same level of impact from this class year 1.
That isn't to say some of the members of this class can't find a role as part of a rotation - I expect Dillon, Deguara, and Martin to all get involved - but there isn't a need to have any of these guys start right out of the gate. Which can be a good thing. It reminds me of the old school days where rookies yielded to veterans and had to bust their asses to earn playing time, rather than being handed a job as soon as they walked through the door.
At the end of the day, regardless of what happens with any other player, this draft will ultimately be judged based on the success or failure of one single player: Jordan Love. The legacy (and possibly the future employment) of GM Brian Gutekunst is also now firmly tied to this selection. The coaching chops of Matt LaFleur will also be thoroughly put to the test to see how he develops. A lot is riding on getting this one right.
But in the end, because Jordan Love plays the most important position in the game, if he becomes a successful starter, this whole draft is a win. For now all he needs to do is focus on being the best scout team QB the Packers have had the luxury to have on the team since Aaron Rodgers himself. Nothing will be easily given to Love. Proving to the organization that he is worthy of being the heir apparent to Aaron will greatly depend on how he prepares himself for what comes next.
We drafted him in the first round, we certainly think he has that kind of talent. But that’s not enough in the National Football League. You’ve got to work, you’ve got to earn it, you’ve got to become a good enough player. Again, we have one of the best to ever lace them up, and we’re shooting for championships as long as he’s here, and we expect him to be here for quite a while. -Brian Gutekunst
submitted by nootfloosh to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]

Tomorrow I'll be stepping out of my bubble and driving almost 2,000 miles across the country for no almost no reason at all. Super excited.

UPDATE # 2
UPDATE # 3
FINAL UPDATE
I live in Central Texas and I've only been as far as CO for my honeymoon. Recently divorced, and I had a realization yesterday. I have nothing holding me down except for my decent paying job. And family I guess, but there's only 5 of us left and we all live in a town of 4,000.
I love traveling and seeing my state, but after CO I realized that Texas doesn't have anything to it but history, and one huge mountain that I climbed a year ago. After saving up some money I started hating the daily grind; working, sleeping, paying bills. I wanted to shake things up. Tomorrow night I'll be driving almost 24 hours, 2,000 miles north to Montana, my dream retirement home.
I don't know what I'm going to do when I get there, or when I see a bear, but I'm extremely excited. If the stars align in my favor, maybe I won't come back, we'll see ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I wasn't expecting this to gain any kind of traction at all, and I'm a little overwhelmed by everyone's kind words and advice, but I'm reading each reply and I appreciate everyone taking the time to contribute. I've always been into driving long distances, but this'll be the farthest I've ever gone, let alone by myself. A lot of you have gotten me a little nervous about being out of my element, but I'm more excited than anything. I'm excited about taking a blind leap to the other side of the country, and I'm happy that you guys are happy alongside me.
I'll be putting out updates every so often and a final update post later in the week. I'm doing some maintenance on my ride to get it ready and then I'll be headed off to bed, ready to leave as soon as I get up. Thank you guys for encouraging me as much as you have. ~C.
6:39p - Just left my driveway. Dunno where I'll stop for the night, but I'd like to get out of Texas first. Not looking forward to the Amarillo highway, glad I got you guys with me. Well, almost 2,000 miles
8:45p - First gas station stop. As a lot of commenters pointed out, never get below half a tank when you're doing distance driving. I live by that advice and I've never once let my cars run out if I have a choice. I'm still in TX, it doesn't look like I've gone far.
-Betting has officially begun- Pothole pays 2 to 1, moose/deer pays 4 to 1, and a cannibalistic hitchhiker that eats my eyes pays 15 to 1; but he has to be an escaped convict serving no less than 30 years in prison.
10:45p - First actual rest stop. Some random truck sleeping area in the middle of nowhere near OK. Gonna hit the road at 11. Killing time setting playlists on Spotify and reading your comments. If you guys have any playlists you wanna throw my way, I'm all ears. My subs like electronic, not Skrillex or Daft Punk, but obscure artists like Ford., Purity Ring, Phantogram, Skott, or Flume. Or any kind of rock or lesser known country.
11:53p - Just a quick one. The windfarms are hands down the creepiest fucking thing I've ever seen on this god forsaken highway. Just one minute you're driving along, and then bam, hundreds of autonomous blades the size of buildings, blinking in cold, unfeeling unison. It's fucking creepy.
12:37a - 6 hours in still haven't hit Amarillo yet. Super quiet on the road, only a handful of trucks I've seen so far. Stuck with one truck for a good while and finally passed him up, and he turned off his highbeams so he didn't blind me. I communicate alot with my car, so I flashed my blinkers once to thank him, got a half mile i front of him and flashed again, which he immediately knew to turn his brights back on. It's odd to be completely alone, but still be in tune with randos around you. I love people sometimes.
3:40a - Had to get off the road for a bit. Also decided to get some Whataburger before I left Texas, what can I say? Also realised I've taken cruise control for granted my whole life. I drive a Cruze with no cruise. Figure that. My foot hurts like a mf.
6:10a - After almost 12 whole hours, I finally got the hell out. It's actually flown by tbh which I'm grateful for. The hardest part's over!
7:26a - Gonna be a nice sunrise
8:05a - Welp, the gravity of the trip just set in, and I think I'm even more pumped now. It was also a gorgeous sunrise in case you were wondering
8:50a - Just got into CO, and already struck in admiration. New Mexico came and went, only stopped to fill up and there was a nice old lady behind the register watching tv on one of those tiny 10" plastic tvs she was so cute
10:44a - They should've sent a poet. They didn't though, they sent me. That shit's purdy, bro.
3:07p - Made it to Wyoming, and I love the simplicity of it's beauty. Miles and miles of snowy, rolling hills. I swear I've dreamt of this place before when I was a kid. Just something about it makes me feel like I belong here. You guys are gorgeous, Wyoming. As some of you pointed out, along with every sign I've seen on the road, y'all are getting some snow tomorrow. I haven't seen any big Walmarts, or rest stops that allow overnight camping so I booked a cheap hotel for the night and we'll see what happens tomorrow. ✌
6:21p - Fun story, since we're talking about snow storms. That shit blew in quick.
Alright guys, I think at this point I can definitely say that shit has without a doubt just gotten real. That was just sleet that I ran into, the real prize was right after that. I thought it was cool and all until it turned into an actual blizzard within minutes.
The guy in front of me knew where the road was so I followed his old tracks, easy peasy. Snow fall picked up super quick and covered almost all the tracks. I'm going off of Google Map's lines to keep me straight. Thankfully another person came up behind me and immediately recognized me as "that guy from Texas" and let me follow his tracks.
Just barely made it to the hotel and against my best efforts, slid right through a stop sign. Luckily this place is deserted and I knew to tap my breaks so I didn't get close to hitting anything, but I damaged my pride. I can now admit that I might be in over my head.
It's been 15 minutes, and we're at a couple inches. i'll be lucky to get out of here Tuesday, but on the plus side, this is a comfortable cold and I like walking so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
If anyone's interested, I just made an account on Snapchat and Insta ; lateforth3party seems easier than posting everything on here
submitted by _LateForTheParty_ to CasualConversation [link] [comments]

Will the Baltimore Ravens win OVER/UNDER 11.5 games? By University Stats Prof!

1. Introduction

The Ravens finished as the top team in the NFL with a 14-2 record. However, the season ended on a sour note as they lost 28-to-12 at home against the Titans in the divisional round.

Baltimore finished 1st in points scored and 3rd in points allowed. It doesn’t get any better than this!

Their running game was historically great! They racked up 206 rushing yards per game on average, while the second-best in the NFL was San Francisco at “just” 144…

Can they replicate last year’s success?

2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)

Lamar Jackson was nothing short of spectacular. He was a lot of fun to watch. He was only the second unanimous MVP winner ever.

He ran for 1,206 yards, but he surprised many with his arm. He threw 36 TD passes versus just 6 picks.

While those numbers are jaw-dropping, I find it hard to believe he can be as good in 2020. Maybe teams will figure him out better and find ways to contain him. You cannot ask Baltimore’s quarterback position to do better in 2020 than they did in 2019.

Note that Robert Griffin III remains the Ravens’ backup QB this year.

2.2 Running Backs (RBs)

Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards were a very good one-two punch (on top of having Lamar Jackson running like crazy). They will be 30 and 25 years old, respectively, so there shouldn’t be too much of a dropoff.

At first, it was believed that Justice Hill might push Gus Edwards for the number two role in 2020. The fourth-round pick out of Oklahoma State had a good rookie season.

However, Baltimore’s backfield is pretty stacked with the addition of rookie J.K. Dobbins. He is very likely to pass Edwards and Hill on the depth chart. It won’t be easy to unseat Ingram, though.

Dobbins rushed for over 2,000 yards last year, while also punching the ball in the end zone 21 times! He can also catch the ball well out of the backfield. He has the tools to become a three-down back in the NFL.

2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)

Not much change at this position either, except for the loss of Seth Roberts who caught 21 passes for 271 yards and 2 TDs. Not a big deal.

The top two targets will be back in 2020: Marquise Brown and Willie Snead.

Brown’ rookie season was a success as he caught 46 passes for 584 yards. He finished third among rookies with 7 receiving TDs. However, his college career ended with a foot injury and he says it hampered him at times during the 2019 season. He faded down the stretch, despite nice numbers in the lone playoff game. Indeed, he scored just one touchdown over the last six meetings.

Snead wasn’t particularly good. He ranked 101st out of 122 wide receivers by PFF. During the regular season, he cleared 50 receiving yards just two times. He caught 4 passes in one game, and hauled in 3 passes or less in the remaining 15 matchups.

Overall, this is a bit of a shaky group. Given his history, Marquise Brown is a likely candidate for injuries and if that happens, they will be in trouble at the wideout position. As mentioned above, Snead isn’t very strong. Seth Roberts is gone. And Miles Boykin isn’t scaring anyone either. Depth was clearly an issue here.

Most observers believed the Ravens would address the position in the draft. However, Baltimore waited until late in the 3rd round to pick a WR: Devin Duvernay out of Texas. He’s a slot weapon who caught 106 passes for 1,386 yards and 9 TDs last year. Obviously, the 106 receptions are impressive, but keep in mind that he benefited from 42 screen plays going his way.

2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)

The team was loaded at this position with Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst. These guys finished 2nd, 12th, and 14th out of 66 tight ends! Having three of the top 14 TEs in the league within the same team is unbelievable!

Unfortunately, Hurst left for Atlanta. As good as he was, it won’t be a huge blow to the Ravens considering the depth they had.

2.5 Offensive Line (OL)

All guys on the offensive line finished above-average according to PFF. Unreal!

The bad news is Marshal Yanda announced his retirement, which leaves a glaring hole at right guard. Yanda played 88% of the offensive snaps and finished as the 4th-best guard in the league (out of 81 guys). His replacement will have big shoes to fill.

One of the main candidates to replace him is free agent D.J. Fluker, who is coming over from Seattle. The 29-year-old’s play has fairly dipped over the past three seasons after four promising years with the Chargers. Fluker graded out as the number 48 guard out of 81 players in 2019.

Still, this is a very strong group, but expect a dropoff compared to last year.

2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE

How can you not expect this unit to decrease its production? They were unbelievably effective last year. They are probably going to regress towards the mean.

They didn’t add any key players on offense (except maybe rookie J.K. Dobbins?), while losing Hayden Hurst, Marshal Yanda and Seth Roberts. Teams have had several months to find ways to slow down Lamar Jackson and company. It’s highly unlikely that his numbers improve over the 2019 campaign.

Also notice how the Ravens’ offense didn’t suffer any big injury all season long to key players. It may not be the case once again in 2020. Injuries occur on a regular basis in the NFL.

Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate downgrade

3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)

The Ravens had three guys on the interior of the defensive line: Brandon Williams, Michael Pierce and Chris Wormley. Each of them received “ok” ratings from PFF, as they finished 67th, 45th and 63rd respectively (out of 114 inside defenders).

Pierce and Wormley are gone. However, the team acquired Derek Wolfe from the Broncos. He recorded 7 sacks in 12 games last year and he ranked as the 46th-best inside defender.

Justin Madubuike was taken early in the 3rd round of this year’s draft. He seems like a boom-or-bust player. He’s athletic, but he is a bit short and light. He’s more likely to become a backup in the NFL.

3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)

Matthew Judon led the way with 9.5 sacks and Tyus Bowser got a career-high 5 sacks in 2019. Both are above-average rushers.

As for Jaylon Ferguson and Jihad Ward, they received fairly bad marks from PFF.

The Ravens made a big splash by acquiring Calais Campbell from the Jaguars. The 33-year old may slow down in 2020, but his numbers have been impressive. He has averaged 8 sacks per season over an 11-year period!

He’s also been extremely durable; he has not missed a game since 2014. As a matter of fact, he’s played at least 13 games in each of his 12 years in the NFL! He finished the 2019 season as the #2 edge defender according to PFF (only behind T.J. Watt from the Steelers).

3.3 Linebackers (LBs)

Patrick Onwuasor and Josh Bynes received a good share of playing time. However, both are gone. Onwuasor was the #73 linebacker while Bynes got a surprisingly high 6th spot out of 89 linebackers.

The only inside LB left with playing experience is L.J. Fort. He’s a 30-year old veteran who has played for five teams. He doesn’t look to be the long-term answer.

The good news is the Ravens selected Patrick Queen from LSU with the 28th overall pick last April. The main knock on him is clearly is lack of experience since he’s was a one-year starter in college.

However, his game film is impressive. He is very fast and he diagnoses plays quickly. He may be the only NFL-caliber linebacker the team has on their roster. It’s not as bad as it looks since Baltimore often plays with six DBs and one LB. Malik Harrison, who was picked late in the third round out of Ohio State, might get some limited playing time.

3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)

The Ravens have a strong group here, even though Brandon Carr was let go.

The team still has Marlon Humphrey (37th-best CB), Marcus Peters (4th-best CB) and Jimmy Smith (42nd-best CB). Baltimore has a lot of ammunition and don’t need to worry about this position.

3.5 Safeties (S)

Earl Thomas is a safe value. He’s been consistently good throughout his career and at 31 years old he still has a few good years left.

Chuck Clark just signed a three-year contract and he deserved it. He really flourished in 2019 and finished 36th out of 87 safeties according to PFF. He is the main reason the team let Tony Jefferson go.

2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE

Baltimore’s defense allowed the third fewest points in the league in 2019. They are still going to be difficult to score against.

Calais Campbell was a great free agent acquisition. To a lesser degree, Derek Wolfe too.

However, losing Michael Pierce, Chris Wormley, Patrick Onwuasor, Josh Bynes, Brandon Carr and Tony Jefferson will hurt. Most of these guys played about 50% of the snaps and will need to be replaced.

The team has little to no depth at linebacker. Patrick Queen has a lot of pressure on his shoulders to step in and perform right away in his rookie season.

Overall, I believe the Ravens defense will see a slight decrease in its effectiveness to stop opposing offenses.

Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade

4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Baltimore Ravens are expected to win 11.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?

Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:

Here are the results:

Estimated Probability Sportsbook Odds ROI
OVER 11.5 WINS 52.3% FanDuel +105 +7.2%
UNDER 11.5 WINS 47.7% bwin +100 -4.6%

Tip: Bet OVER 11.5 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +7.2%
Rank: 27th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -110

Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Ravens’ 16 regular season games:

Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.

Tomorrow, I'll discuss the team whose ROI is 26th in the NFL.

Thanks for reading, I hope you appreciated this write-up!

Professor MJ
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Lost in the Sauce: Trump Tower inflated profits to obtain larger loan...again

Welcome to Lost in the Sauce, keeping you caught up on political and legal news that often gets buried in distractions and theater… or a global health crisis.
TOMORROW: I’m going to post a keep_track look at issues involved in police brutality, prosecution of cops, protests, etc.
Housekeeping:

Russia

Trump announced Saturday he is postponing the annual G7 summit, which was due to be hosted in the U.S. in June, until September — and plans to invite four additional non-member nations including Russia. Boris Johnson responded by saying that he will veto any push by Trump to readmit Russia to the G7 gathering.
The U.S. National Security Agency says the same Russian military hacking group that interfered in the 2016 presidential election has been exploiting a major email server program since last August or earlier. The NSA might have issued an advisory to publicize the IP addresses and a domain name used by the Russian military group, known as Sandworm, in its hacking campaign — in hopes of thwarting their use for other means.
A Russian oligarch is reportedly backing an effort to smear Biden and states he is working with the Trump administration to leak additional damaging material… The oligarch, Oleksandr Onyshchenko, gave tapes of Biden on a phone call with then Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to pro-Russia Ukrainian politician Andriy Derkach, who then leaked the tapes. The audio consisted of edited fragments of phone conversations from years ago when Biden joined other leaders in pressing for the ouster of Ukraine’s corrupt prosecutor general.
  • Derkach met with Rudy Giuliani last year. Onyshchenko worked with another Giuliani associate, Pavel Fuchs (also a co-developer of Trump’s Moscow Tower), to launder hundreds of millions in frozen Yanukovych assets bought from a Russian tycoon. Now, this same group of oligarchs tied to Trump and Giuliani are leaking tapes of unknown provenance to try to undermine a US political campaign.
  • Pro-Trump One America News Network wanted Onyshchenko to come to the US to help with Rudy's disinformation campaign. OAN tried to help him get a visa to travel to the U.S.
Giuliani is also trying to raise $10 million to finance the production of a Biden-Ukraine documentary that can be released this year. Giuliani and his partners have considered the possibility of drawing in investors from overseas, raising the possibility that Giuliani is (again) attempting to orchestrate foreign involvement in the current presidential election.

Flynn-Kislyak transcripts

Last week, the DNI office released the transcripts of the December 2016 calls between former national security adviser Michael Flynn and then-Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak… The transcripts confirm that Flynn lied to the FBI when he claimed that he had not discussed the sanctions imposed on Russia by the Obama administration in response to Vladimir Putin’s attack on the 2016 election.
The transcripts show Flynn encouraged the Russians to not retaliate severely, suggesting that when Trump took office things between Moscow and Washington could be smoothed over… At no point does Flynn castigate Kislyak for Russia’s intervention in the 2016 election. As the Obama administration was trying to impose a punishment on Putin for that attack, Flynn, on behalf of the Trump gang, was sending an utterly different message: We don’t care about that.
  • In fact, Flynn was signaling to Putin that once Trump took office, Trump wouldn’t be pursuing the matter and, instead, would be reaching out to Russia as a partner. (A few months later, Trump, in the Oval Office, would tell Kislyak that directly.)
Kisylak argued that the Obama administration sanctions were aimed at damaging the incoming Trump administration just as much as they were the Kremlin… “I just wanted to tell you that we found that these actions have targeted not only against Russia, but also against the president elect,” said Kislyak, adding that he hopes “within two weeks we will be able to start working in [a] more constructive way.
Tidbit: Mueller’s team asked Trump a series of questions about Flynn's calls with Kislyak; the president simply ignored them.
Tidbit: Flynn told Kislyak in December 2016 that "the boss" (Trump) was aware of Russia's request to have a secure teleconference between Trump and Putin.

Personnel issues

The FBI's top lawyer Dana Boente was asked to resign on Friday following criticism by Fox News for his role in the investigation of Flynn… Two sources familiar with the decision to dismiss Boente said it came from high levels of the Justice Department rather than directly from FBI Director Christopher Wray.
  • Before he moved to the FBI General Counsel job, Boente was the US Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia—the last US Attorney appointed by President Obama to leave office during the Trump era.
Trump’s given reason for firing the State Dept. Inspector General last month was proven to be a false pretense… Trump claimed he was fired for leaking to the media when, in fact, IG Steve Linick was cleared earlier this year by an independent investigation. Pompeo recommended Linick’s removal at a time when the office was investigating multiple instances of abuse of power by the Secretary of State.
Members of three House and Senate committees will interview former State Department Inspector General Steve Linick on Wednesday, as part of an investigation into his abrupt firing. Linick will speak to members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the House Oversight and Reform Committee, and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee behind closed-doors.
  • The committees also plan to call Brian Bulatao, undersecretary of State for management; Lisa Kenna, Pompeo's executive secretary; senior adviser Toni Porter; Assistant Secretary for Political-Military Affairs R. Clarke Cooper; former Deputy Assistant Secretary Marik String, a legal adviser to the department; Deputy Assistant Secretary of Political-Military Affairs Mike Miller; and former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Legislative Affairs Charles Faulkner.
Mike Pompeo's CIA advisory board rankled agency veterans… As CIA director, Pompeo and his wife Susan organized an undisclosed board of outside advisers while he was director of CIA that some at the agency viewed as inappropriately weighted toward wealthy individuals and well-connected political figures.
Op-Ed: Mike Pompeo Is the Worst Secretary of State Ever. The F.B.I. said a Saudi Air Force trainee who killed three U.S. sailors and wounded eight others at a Navy air base in Pensacola, Fla., on Dec. 6 was an act of foreign-planned “terrorism.” ...That sort of intelligence failure — the first foreign-planned terrorist attack on U.S. shores since 9/11 — is something you’d expect Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to be particularly upset about… He just smirks and marches on. But every American should care. The morale and effectiveness of our State Department — and our standing in the world — are both the worse for him.
Last week we learned that the Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general exaggerated his credentials… Joseph Cuffari’s official government bio claims “Dr. Cuffari earned a Ph.D. in philosophy,” but new reporting revealed that his degree is from an unaccredited “diploma mill” that required no classroom instruction and issued degrees for low flat fees. Additionally, the Ph.D. is in management, not philosophy.

Congress

Former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein will testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Wednesday about the origins of the Russia probe. "Mr. Rosenstein will testify about the new revelations contained in the Horowitz report concerning the FISA warrant applications and other matters," Chairman Lindsey Graham said in a statement. "This will be the first in a series of oversight hearings regarding all things Crossfire Hurricane and the Mueller investigation."
  • Reminder: After Trump fired FBI Director James Comey, then-Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein begged for his job, reportedly trying to assure President Trump that he was on his team. “I give the investigation credibility,” Rosenstein[said on a call with Trump. “I can land the plane.”
Top Republicans are suing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi over new proxy voting plans that will allow some members of the House to vote from home amid the coronavirus pandemic. The decision to allow proxy voting was approved by the House earlier this month, largely along party lines, and is only temporary.
House Republican introduces bill to hold up members' pay if they vote by proxy… Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.), who is leading the effort, said: “Outsourcing the duty of a member of Congress is unconstitutional and wrong. House members should not be allowed to send someone else to do their jobs for them.”
Last week, Trump unexpectedly withdrew his support from a FISA reauthorization bill, leading Republicans to abandon the proposal and the House to pull a vote on the legislation. However, as Rep. Justin Amash pointed out, in 2018 Trump himself signed into law the long-contentious spying authority he recently began railing against.

Judicial news

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham urges senior judges to step aside before the November election so Republicans can fill vacancies… Graham said:
“This is a historic opportunity. We’ve put over 200 federal judges on the bench. … If you can get four more years, I mean, it would change the judiciary for several generations. So if you’re a circuit judge in your mid-60s, late 60s, you can take senior status, now would be a good time to do that, if you want to make sure the judiciary is right of center…”
  • Op-Ed: Should Trump lose, you can bet that the day after, McConnell will be on the phone to the White House Counsel’s Office demanding that they nominate someone for every vacant seat, ASAP. It won’t matter who — somebody’s neighbor, somebody’s nephew (there isn’t even a requirement that judges be lawyers) — so long as they’re committed conservatives, and as young as possible so they can serve for decades
Democratic lawmakers are scrutinizing one of President Donald Trump’s outside advisors and his multimillion-dollar “dark money” network for rigging the judicial nomination process… The Senate Democrats’ report details how an interlocked group of anonymous donors has been directing the judicial nominations process through media and lobbying campaigns. Leading this effort is allegedly Leonard Leo and his conservative organization, the Federalist Society.
The Supreme Court late Friday rejected a California church’s challenge of the state’s new pandemic-related rules on worship services, with Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. joining the court’s liberals in the 5-to-4 vote… Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s dissent falsely accused the state of religious discrimination in an extremely misleading opinion that omits the most important facts of the case. Roberts went out of his way to scold Kavanaugh’s dishonest vilification of the state.

Immigration

DOJ memo offered to buy out immigration board members… The buyouts were only offered to Board of Immigration Appeals members hired before Trump took office. Critics view the move as an effort to push out the civil servants on the board and stack it with new hires who would align with the Trump administration’s restrictive immigration agenda.
An immigrant woman sued a private prison company on Wednesday alleging she was raped inside an ICE detention center in Texas that resulted in her giving birth to her attacker's daughter. The woman, identified in the complaint as Jane Doe, was detained at the Houston Processing Center, operated by CoreCivic.
The Trump administration is accelerating efforts to seize private property for Trump’s border wall, taking advantage of the coronavirus pandemic to survey land while its owners are confined indoors. However, landowners are largely fighting the effort in court. Since December, the administration has obtained only seven miles of land.
Family separation returns under cover of the coronavirus… Citing the coronavirus to seal the border, the Trump administration is engaged in a pressure campaign against immigrant parents to get them to give up either their kids or their legal claims to protection in the U.S.

Trump corruption

Trump Tower’s 2010 Profits Magically Grew By $3 Million In New Loan Filings. One set of reports listed the tower’s 2010 profits as $13.3 million; a second put them at $16.1 million. That helped the Trump Organization borrow $73 million more than it had before.
Last year, ProPublica revealed another set of income discrepancies at Trump Tower and other company-owned buildings, ones that seemed to hark to the testimony of former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen, who testified that Trump would inflate income figures when seeking a loan and deflate the figures when filing taxes. Other Trump Organization properties investigated by ProPublica reported higher profits in the CMBS filings than they did in tax filings. A Trump Organization spokesperson said at the time that “comparing the various reports is comparing apples to oranges” because reporting requirements differ.
Trump Towers Istanbul partner lobbied the president and White House cabinet to sizably boost trade with Turkey in response to the novel coronavirus. Asked whether the president performed favors for a business associate, a senior White House official emphasized the longstanding trade relationship with Turkey, a NATO ally.
Lawmakers urge Trump to cancel DC's July 4 event… "Given the current COVID-19 crisis, we believe such an event would needlessly risk the health and safety of thousands of Americans," the lawmakers wrote. "Further, this event would come at the cost of millions of taxpayer dollars while we are facing an unprecedented economic downturn due to the pandemic," they added.
The Republican National Committee held its winter meeting in January at Trump’s struggling Doral golf resort, giving Trump more than half a million dollars from the RNC and 13 state GOP committees. The state Republican party committees of West Virginia, Texas, Connecticut, Minnesota, Iowa, North Carolina, Alabama, Colorado, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Georgia, and Wyoming all contributed to the massive tab.
Trump’s Spent Nearly $20 Million on Lawyers to Carry Out His Political Vendettas… A large part of recent spending is aimed at curbing mail-in voting.
submitted by rusticgorilla to Keep_Track [link] [comments]

How I got banned from sports betting... - Arbitrage Betting Explained Sports Betting Tips: Understanding Fake Line Moves (Sharp Money vs Square Money) Indian Cowboy Free Sports Picks and Predictions - YouTube Texas vs Rice Week 3 NCAAF Betting Picks and Preview - YouTube LSU vs Texas Predictions and Odds (College Football Picks and Spread - September 7)

This website caters to individuals who adore betting on favorites such as tennis, soccer, golf, hockey, baseball, football, and basketball. The sky is honestly the limit for fans who head over to BetOnline.ag these days. For now, sports betting appears unlikely to gain a foothold in Texas. Online Poker and Casino Sites. At present, the only forms of legal online betting in Texas are fantasy sports betting and skill games. Title 10 Chapter 47 of the Texas penal code makes it a Class C misdemeanor to participate in any form of betting which is defined as: Texas Betting Laws Summary. Sports betting is currently illegal in Texas. A sports betting bill was introduced in February of 2019 that could take effect on January 1, 2020. While sports betting is illegal, horse and dog racing are legal. The state lottery has been in existence since 1991. Latest Updates. April 30, 2019: At present, there are two sports betting bills and one casino gambling bill under consideration in the Texas House of Representatives. The two sports betting bills, HJR61 and HB1275, focus on different aspects of legalizing the practice in the state.HJR61 proposes an amendment to the Texas Constitution that would legalize sports betting. Texas is one of the strictest states in the U.S. when it comes to betting laws. In fact, Texas Hold ‘Em is one of the most popular games in the country, but if you gambled on it in Texas, you could face a misdemeanor charge. Under the penal code, any form of gambling is illegal. Gambling is defined in the state law as any bet based on the

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How I got banned from sports betting... - Arbitrage Betting Explained

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