Exacta Bet Explained - Exacta Box - Exacta Wheel - Horse

The Angles I Use: Updated And Requested By A Few Others

1) Fourth Race Back After A Six Month Or Longer Break Or After Going Off Form. You will see a few horses win in their first start back after a long break, but the trainer has prepared the horse with a lot of works, either on track or on their private training track(which they do not have to report to any racing jurisdiction). All track requires all horses to have a race or a recorded workout within three months before they are allowed to run. Then you will see a few more horses win in their second start back after a six month break, but this indicates the trainer did all he could think would help to get the horse fit before racing, but the horse still needed a start. Same with their third start back, but maybe with a few lighter works. But their fourth start back after a six month or longer break, at least to me, is the best opportunity you will get to capitalize on a major score you will remember for years(and you will know it was not a guess but a well thought out plan). But I will emphasize that the trainer must at least give some indication that he knows a little about getting a horse to peak. 10% winning and 30% in the money(1,2,3) is the baseline I use. You will see many horses that looks like they are not improving after three starts and I would suggest waiting until they start showing some run before risking any money on them(I do when I am winning at the track, but not so much when I try to force them to run). But over 80% of them that wins or runs second in their fourth start back show some type of improvement in their third start back, but often not enough to get the masses to bet on them.
Horses that have tailed off after being in form for a few races are much harder to dictate, mostly because it is more difficult to decide when they are going off form, either immediately after winning or tough race and/or a gradual descend into going off form. After years of struggling to find a way to tell if they are going off form or simply had a bad race, I feel I have learn enough to sometimes give me a clue to which one they are indicating. But there is no set angle that would help you that is explainable, so I can only suggest that you will pick up little tidbits at a time by learning to read the running lines of each horse that would help you immensely. Watching how fast they are running or the pace is will not tell you anything as far as conditioning is concerned. Only running lines can give you that information. Time and class is important after you decide if the horse is in peak form but the best horse will only take your money if he is not in shape and/or going off form.
Also, most trainers realize when their horse is not in top form by the way they are acting and/or working. But a trainer makes the bulk of his disposable income by getting horses to win. The fees he charges an owner to train their horse is enough to support his family and make a decent living, but the extras from winning purses are what most seeks on a daily basis. Most of the top trainers knows what it will take to get their horse(s) back to top fitness but they also know it will take weeks or months of steady hard works and/or racing to move their charge back to top condition.
Horses that had less than a five or six month break will usually not need four starts back after a brief freshening to regain his top form. Horses given a 2-3 month break between races on paper are often taken from the track to give a freshening, but the trainer, especially if he knows what he is trying to accomplish, will still work the horse on a private training track(usually his own) and these works are not required to be reported to race tracks because they are not recognized as official workouts. Trainers, however, are required to have at least one published workout and/or race within a three month period(used to be a 2 month period and maybe still is required at some tracks) before a horse is allowed to run again. Stewards are required to scratch any horse that does not meet this criteria and will fine trainers, if they believe he is intentionally negligent or trying to be deceitful.
2) Third Race After A Winning Effort Angle: This angle came from reading a book but was also mentioned in several seminars held by public handicappers and sportswriters in the 1980's. The idea was to help bettors become better handicappers and give them an angle that worked over and over. This angle suggested that horses would win in every third start while they are in form. The theory was the winning race would take enough out of them that it took 2 starts to regain their form. And while this angle seemed to produce over and over, the winning horses started losing their value because the more that learned about this angle, the less value it offered. But since the seminars was phrased out mostly because of a few deceitful public handicappers, this angle returned to producing good to solid returns.
However, after I spent a couple of years charting this angle, I noticed there was more value in betting these types when the horse throws a bad race after winning, then runs an improved effort in his next start but finishing no better than third but no better than fourth is even more preferred. The odds are better because most will think the horse ran third or fourth because "someone had to run there". The opposite way, where the horse ran third or second after a winning effort, then throws a bad race is more likely an indication they have gone off form, from my research. Also, their odds will usually not be worth the value you should be seeking, if you want to win long term. Everybody has days where it best to stay away from the track because no matter what you do or believe in, your horse(s) will not perform up to your expectations. When a horse runs two poor races in his next 2 races after his winning effort, I will usually not consider him at all unless he is dropping below his winning level or took a steep step up(two or more classes) in class in those two starts. More likely, he has gone off form but when he has not, you can expect and will get box car odds. However, when he takes only a small step up in those two starts, then enters back in his winning class level in his third start back, I will make this type beat me. The reason is most trainers will not drop a horse back down if he feels he is still fit but even, if he does, the odds will be lower than what I want to risk money on.
Also when I first charted this angle, it stipulated a horse had to win his third start back. But after watching several who ran a 2nd or 3rd in his third start back and winning that 3rd start and paying humongous odds, I decided to start considering these types of horses with this angle, though I have never seen it written or even implied it might be effective. And this is where I get many longshot type winners because most think his close 2nd or 3rd is the best he could do while in form, so what should be different today. Actually, the horse actually ran his best race in most occasions, but he was simply beaten that day. And he too could need 2 races to get back to his top fitness level. The whole idea of this angle is betting a horse while he is in form, but a hard race will usually take enough conditioning out of most horses that it takes two races to regain his top level of fitness(and even more if he is knocked off form or better known as tired and sluggish).
3) Third In Last Start When Beaten By 2 Lengths Or More By The Winner And Second Place Finishers. This angle was returning boxcar winners and place horses in their next start at GP in 2018. And I have not focused enough on GP this year to determine if this angle is still producing there. Most bettors in the know will consider this type of horse in their next start if the horse is beaten less than 4 lengths when third, but almost none will consider this type if he is beaten by more than 5 lengths. But I will and I do. Actually the best odds using this type of angles comes when the horse is beaten between 5-10 lengths by the winner, regardless of how far the 2nd place horse finishes behind the winner.
The whole idea behind this angle is the jockey may realize that the winner will be almost impossible to catch, so he will ease up on his horse to save a little punch(energy) for his next race. While he will attempt to make it look like he is trying, due to many bettors who complains he is not even trying to win(which he isn't), he has to make an attempt to make it look like a hard try or face possible disciplinary action from the stewards of that track. While I have some other information or rules that would be helpful to understand this angle more, I will not go there due too many who believes the internet is the best source to get their facts, though it is spotted with half truths and/or simply wrong information. I am not about arguing who is right or wrong, I simply am out to make the most money possible with the least amount risked.
4)Speed To The Top Of The Stretch Before Fading In The Stretch Run Angle: This is an angle that I have used with a lot of success thru the years. It simply means as a horse is starting to peak into his best condition, he will tend to hang around longer than any of his most recent races. When I first posted this angle, there were several handicappers on this sub-reddit that asked if it was better betting a horse that faded slightly or did a steady fade in the stretch run. Since I have used both on occasions(but not in the same race), I really did not have an answer at that time.
But when I was looking thru the angles that I had charted many years ago, I had written in my notes the type I preferred. As I have stated, I used both types, but the ones who did a steady fade after staying within two lengths of the lead until the top of the stretch is both more reliable and has higher odds in their next start. The reason a steady fade works better is simple. A jockey may realize his horse is finished trying for that day and will not persevere with trying to win that race, though he has to give a half-hearted effort or get blame for not trying to do his best(which he will be accused of regardless of effort given if horse is heavily bet). Horse that fades slightly are most often giving their maximum effort because the jockey still believes he can coax the horse into winning that day and will often take a little more condition out of that horse that will hurt the horse more than help it in its next start.
Also, I will not bet a horse back that has a clear lead until the top of the stretch and then fades slightly or steadily. This type of horse is most likely a quitter and will stop on his own on most occasions, with or without early pressure. But most horses will face some type of pressure at some point in the race. And when I have previously decided to use this type, I am often left wondering why I thought a horse who faced a little pressure and faded would do better when he is facing even more early pressure.
5)Trip Handicapping. This is an important angle to consider. While I first read about this angle in several of Beyers books, it was the first thing I realized about racing that could be important and I used from day one of my handicapping career. But seeing it in print only confirmed what I believe was often the difference between winning and losing in a lot of races. Noting when a horse has to check and then rebuild speed, get caught behind a wall of horses and having to ease up to wait for running room, horses losing a lot of ground by having to go wide to keep his momentum, bumping and getting squeezed out of the gate, even jockeys trying to time the break and causing the horse to break flat footed(to regain balance) are all part of trip handicapping and can be the difference from a solid race or a ho-hum effort. Jockeys making the wrong split second decision whether to stay inside or try to circle the field also has a major effect on the outcome of races and even top jockeys are prone to making a mistake.
And on the flip side, noticing when a horse got the perfect set up and won because he had a perfect trip(otherwise, he lets other do the hard work and picks up the pieces after the front runners tires) will give you opportunities to make a big score if you learn to recognize the situation. Horses rarely get two perfect type trips in a career, much less two races in a row
6) Bloodlines--- Bloodlines is probably the most mis-understood of all angles out there and that is because there is very few experts that had actually done any type of research, other than copy the sayings of a few earlier experts and passing them along. It requires more study than a five minute glance but for those willing to learn, it can make a world of difference to your bankroll.
For example, experts have always consider that Eclipse of 1764 was the original carrier of the large heart gene. Sure, he won all 18 of his lifetime starts, but the biggest field he faced in those 18 races were 4 other horses twice(most of his other races had one challenger or none). But they are wrong and here is why. As a sire, the original Eclipse never finished as the top sire in any year he stood, finishing no better than second to Herod and his son Highflyer. Every one of his top runners had the Herod or Matchem in their dam families and they were the two stallions that combined to form the large heart gene(Match 'Em grandson & Herod's grand daughter(thru Highflyer) formed one line and then Highflyer was bred to Matchem's daughter to produce another daughter that form another line that displayed the large heart gene). Even then, only two of Eclipse sons made a lasting impression on the breed but it was not because of him but rather whom their sons or grandsons were bred to a couple of generations later(Herod/Matchem cross).
From 1764 thru 1855, there were supposedly 22 horses that had the name of Eclipse when they first race but another name was added after their career began to help bettors separate one Eclipse from another. However, the Eclipse of 1855 held that name only throughout his racing career and stallion career. He won 5 of 9 starts on the race track but one of his son(Alarm) was responsible for the Domino sire line. This is also the Eclipse that a biopsy was performed on after his death and it was determined his heart was twice the size of a normal horse's heart. But this Eclipse's dam(Gaze) was inbred 5x5 to Penelope and Prunella(dam of Penelope) also showed up in her 5th generation. Penelope also showed up in the sire line of this Eclipse in the 5th generation, making it 4 crosses with a large heart gene carrier.
I am adding all of this above to hopefully make you realize that experts can be wrong also, especially if they did not do research for them shelves and only copy old material that is often not accurate. A computer is only as smart as the person who puts the info into it.
I use bloodlines several different ways. First, it helps me to determine which surface a horse will most likely prefer. If a sire made the bulk of his money(or even a better indicator is wins and in the money(1,2,3) on grass throughout his career and did little or nothing on dirt, then I will be reluctant to bet one of his foals until the trainer gets them on the right surface. Most horses will prefer one surface over another, though there are some who will run well on both. Even these types will tend to run slower on one surface over the other when you compare their style, pace and running times.
Then I will take a look at the sire's best distance during his racing career. This is not necessarily the longest distance or the shortest distance the sire won at, but the distance where I feel he runs his top race. I also look for the type of runner the sire was, whether that be front running speed, slightly off the pace, and one who liked to gather him self and make a late run. Some horses are naturally gifted at breaking on cue while others tend to break flat footed and takes a stride or two to get going. I'm sure most of you have seen or heard of a horse hitting the gate at the start. This occurs mostly in young horses, such as 2 YOs because the jockey will usually try to time the break to get a head start which is huge in short races, but not as important in mid distance races or longer. If he succeeds he looks like a genius but when he fails, it usually causes the horse all chance of winning. However, just because a sire won a graded stakes or several graded stakes in his career does not mean he will sire even one stake winner, much less dozens of them. But it does give you a clue as to what type of running style his foals will have. If he had blazing speed from the gate, then most likely his best foals will display similar speed. The top trainers normally takes a look at a sire's natural ability and try to copy that style with his foals.
Next, I take a look at the dam and if she has enough starts, then I follow the same procedure with her as I do the sire. I determine which surface the dam favor, her running style, and her best distance. If I feel she did not have enough starts to get a clear picture and/or she had a poor trainer, then I will use the broodmare sire(her sire) instead. While she too may not produce a foal that was as good as her or will compete in the same class she did, their running style and preferred surface will usually be similar unless the trainer teaches her foals a different method of running that he believes will make the foal a better runner. However, most trainers will not switch anything at all in the foals, in fear of making them less profitable for the owners and them too.

And while I am on the subject, trainers are the key to all of these angles simply because if they do know how to get a horse fit and/or can not tell when a horse is improving, then he will waste most of his life getting horses near peak and then making ill advised moves that will cause the horse to go off form(such as running him in class that the horse cannot compete in after getting him fit). But trainers are out to win because training is their livelihood and they will struggle just like anyone else if they cannot win on occasion. However, just because a trainer has a win percentage of around 10%, he may not have the stock or clientele of more well known trainers, he usually knows when his horse is fit as well as the more highly regarded trainers do. Run an unfit horse, you can expect a bad race. Run a horse that peaked in his second start back and is beginning to go off form, expect an less than top effort. But run a horse when he is signaling he is feeling better than he has in a while and expect an on the board finished at least, with a win very possible. Current conditioning is always the key.

These are the six major angles that I look for on a consistent basis. I use every one of these angles to help me narrow down my choices the quickest way possible while pointing me to live horses that will lead me to huge payoffs. I am not interested in betting when payoffs are low because that will mean you are spinning your wheels and wasting time, just trying to stay even or making just enough money to get to try again the next day or week. When I bet, I strive for making enough money to cover all my bets for a couple of months, off one solid score. Anything more is simply added rewards that I put away and use on other things I enjoy. But I started out the same as most handicappers, betting a lot of low odds horses and seeing them get beat much more often than they were winning. I got tired of spending hard earned cash and having nothing to show for it. But I eventually got the message and I realized that I could go thru life trying the same old things that were not working well enough for me to succeed and hoping for a different outcome one day or I could do research and pick up new ideas that would make me a better handicapper. I chose the latter and while it was hard work and continues to be hard work, the rewards are much better this way than my old way of handicapping.

So does any of this really work? Make you own call. While it does not in every race. you will be presented with enough opportunities to take your game to a higher level with very little at risk. I will give you a few examples that occurred last Saturday night at CD, June 15th. But realize I did not hit any of these exactas, mostly because I overlooked these angles. While they still came through, like they do very often, first finding them and then be willing to risk a few dollars, regardless of odds, will make all the difference in your bankroll.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1st Race was a maiden special weight for 3 YO & Up going 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass. While I bet a first time starter that was listed at 20-1 M/L but eventually got off a 45-1 and ran 2nd. He had good works and a decent trainer, but I was drawn to the fact his sire was Distorted Humor, a son of Forty Niner and his broodmare sire is Danzig. Danzig's foals are known for their grass and off tracks abilities. especially in sprints. Bet him to WP and he came out first and led to deep stretch when he got caught.

While I boxed an Animal Kingdom son with him in an exacta box, he proved to me that he really did not want any part of such a short distance, which I figured as much, but bet him anyway.

However, the winner was a son of Verrazano and grandson of More Than Ready. More Than Ready is another sire than is on my short list of sire to watch in sprints, whether on grass or dirt. He had one start and ran 2nd in a maiden claiming race and was stepping up in class. This was the reason I decided to go another way, but the trainer and jockey had teamed up to bring another 35-1 on top in a 5 Furlong turf sprint at CD, exactly five weeks before, and I was on that one. Actually, the only horses to run second or third in their previous race coming in to this race, completed the exacta, tri and superfecta! None had proven they were not willing to pass. These three exotic wagers would have netted anyone over $1G with the minimum bet on each one boxed, all for less than $10 invested.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2nd Race was a maiden special weight for 3 YO & Up F&M going 1 mile on dirt. Sally's Curlin was making her 4th start this year, twice finishing 3rd behind runaway winners on speed favoring tracks and then 5th against this class in her last. But her prior two starts, came at 1 1/16 mile and 1 1/8 mile and both were a little longer than her broodmare sire, More Than Ready(yes that one), performed his best at throughout his career and has sired. Shorting back up to a mile, she sat near the rear, made an explosive move and won going away.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6th Race was the Wise Dan S at 1 1/16 mile on grass. While I had a case of tunnel vision when I was handicapping this race, it proved to be a major error. I bet two horses that did not conformed to any of my angles and it proved costly. The winner, March To The Arch, ran an even fifth in a G1 stakes race in his last and was the only one entered in this race than had ran in a G1 in his last, which the exception of the import who I bet.

All Right ran 2nd at 71-1. If you read what I type about the third race back after a win, he fit that angle to a T. Not only did he run a poor race in his next, he ran an much improved race the race after that and equibase charts noted he need a seam, otherwise behind a wall of horses and could not get through.

The horse that ran third, Admission Office, ran 2nd in a G2 in his last start prior to this effort and he was the only one in this field that had done so. With a little knowledge about recent class and one of the angles i use, betting the minimum of less than $10 would have netted anyone more than $8.5K. A life changing amount, in most instances.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The 8th race was the Steven F Foster S and the winner, Seeking The Gold, was making his third start back after putting in his best race in the Pegasus World Cup, but was used hard to get up for second behind the runaway winner on a sloppy race track. Then he traveled half the way around the world and put in a poor effort. Returnedto The U.s, he then finished 3rd in his next which set him up nicely for this effort.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 9th race was the Regret S. The winner, Hard Legacy , was making her third start back after a winning effort. First she ran an even race in a G3 race, her first effort against graded horses. Then she returned against G2 caliber horses and she ran even again, though she pick up a few horses but not much gain on the top horse. She returned this race and was sent out front for the lead, set most of the pace and held the runner up safe.

The runner up, Winter Sunset, was my best pick of the day simply because I thought she would get the lead and win going away. Winter Sunset was also working on her third start since the last win, and like the winner, faced off against graded horses in both. While I rarely put two of the same angle horse together in an exacta box(which I didn't this time either), it would have been beneficial in this case as the 2nd choice in my tri box ran 5th.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The 11th race was a maiden claiming for $30,000 for 3 YO & Up at 6 furlongs. I was betting the winner all the way simply because he was returning on the same class as his first start but which he was claimed out of. His sire was Flatter, who broke his maiden in his second start at 6 furlongs but did not mature into the top runner he ended up being until late in his 5 YO season. The Cadron Flats's broodmare sire was Diablo, was a fast sprinter throughout his career and a son of Devil's Bag, another high class speedster.

Now you will not find these angles every day or even every week, because they are buried in thousands of other useful pieces of information, but you will get several opportunities every month if you do not let your guard down.
submitted by hodsct59 to horseracing [link] [comments]

Angles I Use! Like It Or Not, It's The System That Makes Me Steady Money.

1) Fourth Race Back After A Six Month Or Longer Break Or After Going Off Form. You will see a few horses win in their first start back after a long break, but the trainer has prepared the horse with a lot of works, either on track or on their private training track(which they do not have to report to any racing jurisdiction). All track requires all horses to have a race or a recorded workout within three months before they are allowed to run. Then you will see a few more horses win in their second start back after a six month break, but this indicates the trainer did all he could think would help to get the horse fit before racing, but the horse still needed a start. Same with their third start back, but maybe with a few lighter works. But their fourth start back after a six month or longer break, at least to me, is the best opportunity you will get to capitalize on a major score you will remember for years(and you will know it was not a guess but a well thought out plan). But I will emphasize that the trainer must at least give some indication that he knows a little about getting a horse to peak. 10% winning and 30% in the money(1,2,3) is the baseline I use. You will see many horses that looks like they are not improving after three starts and I would suggest waiting until they start showing some run before risking any money on them(I do when I am winning at the track, but not so much when I try to force them to run). But over 80% of them that wins or runs second in their fourth start back show some type of improvement in their third start back, but often not enough to get the masses to bet on them.
Horses that have tailed off after being in form for a few races are much harder to dictate, mostly because it is more difficult to decide when they are going off form, either immediately after winning or tough race and/or a gradual descend into going off form. After years of struggling to find a way to tell if they are going off form or simply had a bad race, I feel I have learn enough to sometimes give me a clue to which one they are indicating. But there is no set angle that would help you that is explainable, so I can only suggest that you will pick up little tidbits at a time by learning to read the running lines of each horse that would help you immensely. Watching how fast they are running or the pace is will not tell you anything as far as conditioning is concerned. Only running lines can give you that information. Time and class is important after you decide if the horse is in peak form but the best horse will only take your money if he is not in shape and/or going off form.
Also, most trainers realize when their horse is not in top form by the way they are acting and/or working. But a trainer makes the bulk of his disposable income by getting horses to win. The fees he charges an owner to train their horse is enough to support his family and make a decent living, but the extras from winning purses are what most seeks on a daily basis. Most of the top trainers knows what it will take to get their horse(s) back to top fitness but they also know it will take weeks or months of steady hard works and/or racing to move their charge back to top condition.
Horses that had less than a five or six month break will usually not need four starts back after a brief freshening to regain his top form. Horses given a 2-3 month break between races on paper are often taken from the track to give a freshening, but the trainer, especially if he knows what he is trying to accomplish, will still work the horse on a private training track(usually his own) and these works are not required to be reported to race tracks because they are not recognized as official workouts. Trainers, however, are required to have at least one published workout and/or race within a three month period(used to be a 2 month period and maybe still is required at some tracks) before a horse is allowed to run again. Stewards are required to scratch any horse that does not meet this criteria and will fine trainers, if they believe he is intentionally negligent or trying to be deceitful.
2) Third Race After A Winning Effort Angle: This angle came from reading a book but was also mentioned in several seminars held by public handicappers and sportswriters in the 1980's. The idea was to help bettors become better handicappers and give them an angle that worked over and over. This angle suggested that horses would win in every third start while they are in form. The theory was the winning race would take enough out of them that it took 2 starts to regain their form. And while this angle seemed to produce over and over, the winning horses started losing their value because the more that learned about this angle, the less value it offered. But since the seminars was phrased out mostly because of a few deceitful public handicappers, this angle returned to producing good to solid returns.
However, after I spent a couple of years charting this angle, I noticed there was more value in betting these types when the horse throws a bad race after winning, then runs an improved effort in his next start but finishing no better than third but no better than fourth is even more preferred. The odds are better because most will think the horse ran third or fourth because "someone had to run there". The opposite way, where the horse ran third or second after a winning effort, then throws a bad race is more likely an indication they have gone off form, from my research. Also, their odds will usually not be worth the value you should be seeking, if you want to win long term. Everybody has days where it best to stay away from the track because no matter what you do or believe in, your horse(s) will not perform up to your expectations. When a horse runs two poor races in his next 2 races after his winning effort, I will usually not consider him at all unless he is dropping below his winning level or took a steep step up(two or more classes) in class in those two starts. More likely, he has gone off form but when he has not, you can expect and will get box car odds. However, when he takes only a small step up in those two starts, then enters back in his winning class level in his third start back, I will make this type beat me. The reason is most trainers will not drop a horse back down if he feels he is still fit but even, if he does, the odds will be lower than what I want to risk money on.
Also when I first charted this angle, it stipulated a horse had to win his third start back. But after watching several who ran a 2nd or 3rd in his third start back and winning that 3rd start and paying humongous odds, I decided to start considering these types of horses with this angle, though I have never seen it written or even implied it might be effective. And this is where I get many longshot type winners because most think his close 2nd or 3rd is the best he could do while in form, so what should be different today. Actually, the horse actually ran his best race in most occasions, but he was simply beaten that day. And he too could need 2 races to get back to his top fitness level. The whole idea of this angle is betting a horse while he is in form, but a hard race will usually take enough conditioning out of most horses that it takes two races to regain his top level of fitness(and even more if he is knocked off form or better known as tired and sluggish).
3) Third In Last Start When Beaten By 2 Lengths Or More By The Winner And Second Place Finishers. This angle was returning boxcar winners and place horses in their next start at GP in 2018. And I have not focused enough on GP this year to determine if this angle is still producing there. Most bettors in the know will consider this type of horse in their next start if the horse is beaten less than 4 lengths when third, but almost none will consider this type if he is beaten by more than 5 lengths. But I will and I do. Actually the best odds using this type of angles comes when the horse is beaten between 5-10 lengths by the winner, regardless of how far the 2nd place horse finishes behind the winner.
The whole idea behind this angle is the jockey may realize that the winner will be almost impossible to catch, so he will ease up on his horse to save a little punch(energy) for his next race. While he will attempt to make it look like he is trying, due to many bettors who complains he is not even trying to win(which he isn't), he has to make an attempt to make it look like a hard try or face possible disciplinary action from the stewards of that track. While I have some other information or rules that would be helpful to understand this angle more, I will not go there due to many who believes the internet is the best source to get their facts, though it is spotted with half truths and/or simply wrong information. I am not about arguing who is right or wrong, I simply am out to make the most money possible with the least amount risked.
4)Speed To The Top Of The Stretch Before Fading In The Stretch Run Angle: This is an angle that I have used with a lot of success thru the years. It simply means as a horse is starting to peak into his best condition, he will tend to hang around longer than any of his most recent races. When I first posted this angle, there were several handicappers on this sub-reddit that asked if it was better betting a horse that faded slightly or did a steady fade in the stretch run. Since I have used both on occasions(but not in the same race), I really did not have an answer at that time.
But when I was looking thru the angles that I had charted many years ago, I had written in my notes the type I preferred. As I have stated, I used both types, but the ones who did a steady fade after staying within two lengths of the lead until the top of the stretch is both more reliable and has higher odds in their next start. The reason a steady fade works better is simple. A jockey may realize his horse is finished trying for that day and will not persevere with trying to win that race, though he has to give a half-hearted effort or get blame for not trying to do his best(which he will be accused of regardless of effort given if horse is heavily bet). Horse that fades slightly are most often giving their maximum effort because the jockey still believes he can coax the horse into winning that day and will often take a little more condition out of that horse that will hurt the horse more than help it in its next start.
Also, I will not bet a horse back that has a clear lead until the top of the stretch and then fades slightly or steadily. This type of horse is most likely a quitter and will stop on his own on most occasions, with or without early pressure. But most horses will face some type of pressure at some point in the race. And when I have previously decided to use this type, I am often left wondering why I thought a horse who faced a little pressure and faded would do better when he is facing even more early pressure.
5)Trip Handicapping. This is an important angle to consider. While I first read about this angle in several of Beyers books, it was the first thing I realized about racing that could be important and I used from day one of my handicapping career. But seeing it in print only confirmed what I believe was often the difference between winning and losing in a lot of races. Noting when a horse has to check and then rebuild speed, get caught behind a wall of horses and having to ease up to wait for running room, horses losing a lot of ground by having to go wide to keep his momentum, bumping and getting squeezed out of the gate, even jockeys trying to time the break and causing the horse to break flat footed(to regain balance) are all part of trip handicapping and can be the difference from a solid race or a ho-hum effort. Jockeys making the wrong split second decision whether to stay inside or try to circle the field also has a major effect on the outcome of races and even top jockeys are prone to making a mistake.
And on the flip side, noticing when a horse got the perfect set up and won because he had a perfect trip(otherwise, he lets other do the hard work and picks up the pieces after the front runners tires) will give you opportunities to make a big score if you learn to recognize the situation. Horses rarely get two perfect type trips in a career, much less two races in a row
6) Bloodlines--- Bloodlines is probably the most mis-understood of all angles out there and that is because there is very few experts that had actually done any type of research, other than copy the sayings of a few earlier experts and passing them along. It requires more study than a five minute glance but for those willing to learn, it can make a world of difference to your bankroll.
For example, experts have always consider that Eclipse of 1764 was the original carrier of the large heart gene. Sure, he won all 18 of his lifetime starts, but the biggest field he faced in those 18 races were 4 other horses twice(most of his other races had one challenger or none). But they are wrong and here is why. As a sire, the original Eclipse never finished as the top sire in any year he stood, finishing no better than second to Herod and his son Highflyer. Every one of his top runners had the Herod or Matchem in their dam families and they were the two stallions that combined to form the large heart gene(Match 'Em grandson & Herod's grand daughter(thru Highflyer) formed one line and then Highflyer was bred to Matchem's daughter to produce another daughter that form another line that displayed the large heart gene). Even then, only two of Eclipse sons made a lasting impression on the breed but it was not because of him but rather whom their sons or grandsons were bred to a couple of generations later(Herod/Matchem cross).
From 1764 thru 1855, there were supposedly 22 horses that had the name of Eclipse when they first race but another name was added after their career began to help bettors separate one Eclipse from another. However, the Eclipse of 1855 held that name only throughout his racing career and stallion career. He won 5 of 9 starts on the race track but one of his son(Alarm) was responsible for the Domino sire line. This is also the Eclipse that a biopsy was performed on after his death and it was determined his heart was twice the size of a normal horse's heart. But this Eclipse's dam(Gaze) was inbred 5x5 to Penelope and Prunella(dam of Penelope) also showed up in her 5th generation. Penelope also showed up in the sire line of this Eclipse in the 5th generation, making it 4 crosses with a large heart gene carrier.
I am adding all of this above to hopefully make you realize that experts can be wrong also, especially if they did not do research for them shelves and only copy old material that is often not accurate. A computer is only as smart as the person who puts the info into it.
I use bloodlines several different ways. First, it helps me to determine which surface a horse will most likely prefer. If a sire made the bulk of his money(or even a better indicator is wins and in the money(1,2,3) on grass throughout his career and did little or nothing on dirt, then I will be reluctant to bet one of his foals until the trainer gets them on the right surface. Most horses will prefer one surface over another, though there are some who will run well on both. Even these types will tend to run slower on one surface over the other when you compare their style, pace and running times.
Then I will take a look at the sire's best distance during his racing career. This is not necessarily the longest distance or the shortest distance the sire won at, but the distance where I feel he runs his top race. I also look for the type of runner the sire was, whether that be front running speed, slightly off the pace, and one who liked to gather him self and make a late run. Some horses are naturally gifted at breaking on cue while others tend to break flat footed and takes a stride or two to get going. I'm sure most of you have seen or heard of a horse hitting the gate at the start. This occurs mostly in young horses, such as 2 YOs because the jockey will usually try to time the break to get a head start which is huge in short races, but not as important in mid distance races or longer. If he succeeds he looks like a genius but when he fails, it usually causes the horse all chance of winning. However, just because a sire won a graded stakes or several graded stakes in his career does not mean he will sire even one stake winner, much less dozens of them. But it does give you a clue as to what type of running style his foals will have. If he had blazing speed from the gate, then most likely his best foals will display similar speed. The top trainers normally takes a look at a sire's natural ability and try to copy that style with his foals.
Next, I take a look at the dam and if she has enough starts, then I follow the same procedure with her as I do the sire. I determine which surface the dam favor, her running style, and her best distance. If I feel she did not have enough starts to get a clear picture and/or she had a poor trainer, then I will use the broodmare sire(her sire) instead. While she too may not produce a foal that was as good as her or will compete in the same class she did, their running style and preferred surface will usually be similar unless the trainer teaches her foals a different method of running that he believes will make the foal a better runner. However, most trainers will not switch anything at all in the foals, in fear of making them less profitable for the owners and them too.
These are the six major angles that I look for on a consistent basis. I use every one of these angles to help me narrow down my choices the quickest way possible while pointing me to live horses that will lead me to huge payoffs. I am not interested in betting when payoffs are low because that will mean you are spinning your wheels and wasting time, just trying to stay even or making just enough money to get to try again the next day or week. When I bet, I strive for making enough money to cover all my bets for a couple of months, off one solid score. Anything more is simply added rewards that I put away and use on other things I enjoy. But I started out the same as most handicappers, betting a lot of low odds horses and seeing them get beat much more often than they were winning. I got tired of spending hard earned cash and having nothing to show for it. But I eventually got the message and I realized that I could go thru life trying the same old things that were not working well enough for me to succeed and hoping for a different outcome one day or I could do research and pick up new ideas that would make me a better handicapper. I chose the latter and while it was hard work and continues to be hard work, the rewards are much better this way than my old way of handicapping.
FYI, my 2 1/2 month weekly winning streak ended today. All week long, rain was predicted in New Orleans, so I decided to concentrate on Oaklawn Park yesterday(which I broke even for the day) but was 0-5 today at Gulfstream Park today, but missed an exacta by a neck(1st & 3rd) and a trifecta by 3/4 of a length(1st, 3rd & 4th with only 3 horses I had boxed) in the second race. A 9% winning trainer with Jose Ortiz on it ran 2nd). Bet the third place finisher to WP. Then in the seventh race, my picks ran second & third in the exacta but was beaten by the same horse that beat them in their last out in near wire to wire fashion. However, she was picking up 7 lbs off that win and the third place finisher was dropping 4 lbs, making it an 11 lb swing. So I thought these two would turn the tables on the winner, especially with Blamed running, but she decided to rate like she has been willing to do previously and shallowed the speed heading into the stretch to win easily. I bet the 44-1 lonshot to WP so I made some of my money back, just not enough. Oh well, I guess you can not have everything go your way.
But had I simply stayed at the track I normally bet, things would most likely turned out much better. No rain fell as predicted in New Orleans and the track had returned to fast and firmed. And just as FG had done two months prior, they started the card off with three longshots(this time 15-1+ winning) and the P3 paid 2 of 3 and the P4 paid off for 3 of 4 winners, though all were pickable using the angles I mentioned above(can not believe I did not even look until after the fact). But then again, I probably would have let the probability of rain affect my thinking and ended up with an even worse day.
The 16-1 winner of the first race ran 2nd in its third start back in N/W 2 allowance and had dropped into a $15,000 claiming for N/W of two lifetime in its last race on the grass but ran respectable, and was entered at the same level and surface today.
The 20-1 winner of the second race was running for the fourth time since its last big effort, a second while beaten by 9 lengths by a horse that was 1-10 that day. At first glance, his last race looks like he was not ready to win today, but upon a closer look, he was less than 2 lengths behind the pace setter until the far turn when encounter traffic problems and faded. Switching from a jockey who has struggled to Gabriel Saez, a winner of the Ky Oaks in 2008 and brother of Luis Saez, certainly did not hurt his chance. Actually, he jumped out front and never look back, pulling away from the 1-2 favorite in the stretch.
The 21-1 winner of the 3rd race was also ridden by Gabriel Saez, but he was a grandson of War Front, who I know is one of the top turf horses breeding today. His sire, Data Link, was a G1 grass winner at one mile at Keeneland and this race was a maiden special weight, a far cry from G1 competition. He also was making his 2nd lifetime start, the first a turf sprint where he broke slowly and could not make up any ground on a soft turf course at Keeneland(most can not, especially in a turf sprint).
submitted by hodsct59 to horseracing [link] [comments]

Exacta Strategies in Horse Racing

by Lenny Moon
Reprinted with permission, this article discusses the best exacta strategies in horse racing.
The Exacta is many horseplayers first taste of exotic wagering.
In horse racing the Exacta requires the bettor to correctly select the first two finishers in a race.
There are many ways to play the Exacta but most horseplayers are taught to play the Exacta in the most inefficient way, thus foregoing the opportunity to maximize their returns.
I was guilty of falling into the trap because it was the way everyone played the Exacta, in fact it was the way the racing program suggested to play.
Lucky for you I am here to teach you how to maximize your returns when betting the Exacta but before we get to that let’s take a few minutes to discuss the wrong ways and why they should be avoided.

Exacta Box

The most common way to bet the Exacta is by boxing two or more horses. This is the strategy referred to earlier.
Boxing your horses means they can come in any order so long as they finish first and second.
At first glance, and to a novice, this might look like a great strategy because it provides a little cushion in case you are not perfect in your handicapping.
What it also does is minimize returns because you are giving each combination an equal chance of winning.
While there may be a rare occasion when you think two horses have an equal chance of winning or running second that should be the exception not the rule.
Betting an Exacta Box is not only inefficient it can also be costly depending on the number of horses you use.
A two horse Exacta Box costs $2 (2 x 1 = 2) for each $1 bet, a three horse Exacta Box costs $6 (3 x 2 = 6) for each $1 bet, a four horse Exacta Box costs $12 (4 x 3 = 12) for each $1 bet and so on.
It may seem like a good way to bet but the cost and the likely return suggests otherwise.
For example suppose you bet a three horse Exacta Box for $1. Your investment would be $6.
If two of your horses are favorites and run one-two you might make a few dollars or depending on how much was bet on the combination you could conceivably lose money.
The only benefit of boxing an Exacta is it will produce a higher win rate, meaning you will cash more tickets. In return, however, you will be minimizing your profits.
The most efficient way to bet the Exacta is by weighting each combination.

Exacta Wheel

The second most common way to bet the Exacta is a wheel.
An Exacta Wheel involves picking one horse to win and “wheeling” it with the rest of the field.
If your horse wins you win the Exacta but again you are not maximizing your returns.
You are actually putting yourself in a position that adds more luck to the equation then necessary.
Basically you are hoping your horse wins the race and the longest shot runs second.
Unfortunately there is a much better chance one of the logical contenders will fill out the Exacta. That result will produce a much lower payout than if the longest shot ran second.
Let’s say you find one horse you really like to win but you cannot figure out who will run second. The best option would be to bet the horse to Win and forego the Exacta.
The more likely decision will be wheeling your horse in the Exacta and praying for a long shot to come in second.
If the race had ten horses the Exacta wheel would cost $9 (1 x 9 = 9) for each $1 bet.
In a ten horse field the Exacta will usually pay more than $9 for a $1 bet so if your horse wins you will most likely make a profit but at what cost?
Let’s say your horse is 3/1 and wins. You bet a $1 Exacta Wheel which costs $9.
A logical horse runs second and the Exacta returns $20 for a $1 bet.
You excitedly make your way to the betting window to collect your $11 profit.
What you fail to realize is you left money on the table.
Had you bet that same $9 on your horse to Win you would have won $36 (9 x 3 + 9 = 36) for a profit of $27 (36 – 9 = 27).
The Win bet would have made you a profit of $27 while the Exacta only netted you $11.
There will be instances when a long shot finishes second and the Exacta returns more than the Win bet but more often than not one of the favorites will run second thus reducing the return.

Exacta Part Wheel

The Exacta Part Wheel is a step in the right direction.
This bet involves wheeling your horse over a few other horses.
This is a much better strategy than wheeling the entire field second because it costs less.
In the same example from the previous section let’s say you decide three horses can run second behind your top pick. A $1 Exacta Part Wheel would cost $3 (1 x 3 = 3) for each $1 bet.
Now you have shifted the odds in your favor.
The $3 Win bet would only return $12 (3 x 3 + 3 = 12).
The Exacta would return $20 for each $1 bet resulting in a profit of $17 (20 – 3 = 17).
In this scenario the Exacta returned $5 more than the Win bet for each $1 bet.
A more effective way to play the Exacta Part Wheel is to bet more than a dollar on the combinations.
I used this strategy on Belmont day in the Easy Goer Stakes.
I thought the favorite, Teeth of the Dog, was the most likely winner. He went to post at odds of 2/1, not very appealing for a Win bet.
I decided there were two horses that were most likely to finish second, Skyring (6/1) and Fast Falcon (27/1).
I gave both horses the same chance of running second so I bet a $5 Exacta Part Wheel with Teeth of the Dog over Skyring and Fast Falcon.
As expected Teeth of the Dog outclassed the field and won 3 3/4 lengths.
Skyring faded to last in the stretch but long shot Fast Falcon closed stoutly and just got up for second. The $5 Exacta returned $418.75.
The $10 Win bet on 2/1 Teeth of the Dog would have returned a measly $30.50.
In this situation the Exacta Part Wheel provided the maximum return. It also showed that you can make money betting favorites, if you do it the right way.

Weighted Exacta

The most efficient way to bet the Exacta is by weighting each combination.
In the previous example had I thought Fast Falcon was more likely to run second I could have spent the same $10 by betting a $7 Exacta of Teeth of the Dog over Fast Falcon and a $3 Exacta of Teeth of the Dog over Skyring.
Weighting your Exacta combinations is the best way to maximize your returns long term.
Instead of being lazy and boxing your horses or wheeling them you should take a few minutes to think about what chance each horse has of winning and/or running second and then bet accordingly.
An alternate example of the Weighted Exacta would be if you like two horses that you think will run first and second.
Let’s say the first horse is twice as likely to win as the second. For the same $10 you could bet a $7 Exacta with first horse over the second horse and a $3 combination reversing it.
If your horses run one-two you win and if you are correct that the first horse is more likely to win then you will be rewarded accordingly with a better return.

Final Thoughts

The Exacta is a great way to make money betting on horses.
Unfortunately most horseplayers are taught to bet the Exacta inefficiently by either Boxing it or Wheeling their horse.
Smart horseplayers, which includes you since you just read this, will instead bet Exacta Part Wheels or Weighted Exacta’s.
The former group may cash more tickets but the latter group will make larger profits. To recap here are the important points to remember:
I hope this helps you make more money betting the Exacta, it has done so for me.
If you have others ways of betting the Exacta please share them in the comments below.
If you found this post to be helpful please share it using the social media buttons below, and if you haven’t already done so, join the AGameofSkill.com monthly newsletter by leaving your email address in the form below.

Check out our Handicapping Tips:

AGameofSkill.com has a library of educational horse racing handicapping tips
submitted by agameofskill_com to horseracing [link] [comments]

My Bets (as of right now)

Okay, so obviously this is subject to change, but here is what I'm thinking:
1) $0.50 TRI: ($50 total cost...but may cut down the last part)
2) Saver $0.50 TRI: ($10 total)
3) Possible Add'l $.050 TRI: ($18) <-- (I should really skip the first Trifecta and bet this instead)
4) $1.00 Superfecta ($36 total)
Probably will change, but that's where my head is.
Looking to spend about $115 total but I may cut it down and use some for exactas.
Thoughts?
submitted by WriterDave to horseracing [link] [comments]

Official 2013 Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest

This is specifically for Saturday, May 4th, at Churchill Downs.
The entire card (races 1 - 13) is available for this contest.
Here's the official rules:
Race, then dollar amount, then bet type, then the number of the horse(s). If you are boxing and/or wheeling, make sure you list the final price at the end of the line for the ticket.
You might also want to use (OR USE) the "four spaces at the beginning of the line" formatting to get the type to print as "code" to help with legibility.
So, for example:
RACE 1, $2 WIN, 3 RACE 2, $2 WPS, 3, $6 $2 EXACTA BOX, 3/6, $4 
Pretty straight forward, right?
The only prize you get is bragging rights.
I'll add more lists for cards later, but
Here's The TimeForm PDF
Remember, since you can't edit your bet posting (other than to delete it), you may want to wait until Saturday to actually post your bets.
EDIT #1 - Mod blocked non-related postings, trying to keep this non-cluttered
EDIT 2 - The rankings:
RaidersLakersDodgers – return of $89.70, loss of just $10.30
Lechnito – return $32, loss of $68
Deez-treez – return $22.40, loss of $77.60
Slojourner – Return $0, loss $100
Kavie_Large - $0, loss of $100
FrattingHard - $0, loss of $100
Mattysperlz - $0, loss of $100
Shotgun_Mosquito - got drunk in the bar, someone stole my wallet
Phisherman77 – return $0
submitted by Shotgun_Mosquito to horseracing [link] [comments]

OFFICIAL HANDICAPPING CONTEST for JULY 4, 2012!

I know this is short notice, so I apologize.
I have been trying to figure out the logistics of running a handicapping contest, and I think the best way to do this is to do a dry run. No prizes, no karma, nothing but kudos here right now; that does not mean that I WILL award prizes later, but it is something that I'm looking into.
Please note that this is the first time this has been done on this subreddit, so I expect there to be a lot of screwups and "I wish you would have done it this way, Shotgun" posts later. That's fine, any criticism (as long as it's subjective) will be carefully reviewed and considered and I'll make modifications to the way this will work later.
EDIT 1
Now, for the track!
★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★
I've selected BELMONT, for July 4, 2012.
★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★
You can review the entries here.
If you need an official "card" for the track for that date, I can't (yet) help you; TimeForm should have one posted later tonight or tomorrow. I don't know of any other sources for this track at this time online for free.
For this test run, please use the following format.
Race, then dollar amount, then bet type, then the number of the horse(s). If you are boxing and/or wheeling, make sure you list the final price at the end of the line for the ticket.
You might also want to use the "four spaces at the beginning of the line" formatting to get the type to print as "code" to help with legibility.
So, for example:
RACE 1, $2 WIN, 3 RACE 2, $2 WPS, 3, $6 $2 EXACTA BOX, 3/6, $4 
Make sense?
Edit 2
Here's another race card to review for Belmont - TimeForm PDF
BrisNet
Edit 3
I obviously did not explain myself properly up above (first time jitters I guess). When I said that I've selected Belmont, I meant that the track that this competition will be involving is Belmont, for everyone.
PLAYERS NOW LOCKED
at 7/4/2012 12:40pm ET
1st race at 12:50pm ET
** STANDINGS **
WIN - DEADHEAT
ToreroTrojan ..... +16.60 Shotgun_Mosquito +16.60
PLACE
shartin_tartan ..... ($37.80)
SHOW
RichDavi ($45.80)
submitted by Shotgun_Mosquito to horseracing [link] [comments]

So if you’re going to get involved with Exacta betting, we strongly recommend using part wheels. There will be occasions when a Straight Exacta or an Exacta Box is the way to go. For the most part though, part wheels are the best option. Given those assumptions, our new Part Wheel looks like this: $2 Trifecta, Part Wheel, {1,2} with {1,2,4,6} with {1,2,4,6,9,11}. This results in 24 combinations. These combinations will not print out on your ticket, but they are implied by the Part-Wheel wager. Below is an example of what your ticket might look like. Exacta Part-Wheel. Select one horse to finish first, and a part-wheel series of horses to finish second. Or select second, and part-wheel a series to finish first. Price varies by number of horses you wheel. Trifecta Wheel. Select one horse to finish first and wheel all other horses in the race to finish in second and third. Exacta Wheels and Exacta Part-Wheels The third method of playing exactas is to wheel one horse (or more than one horse) in one position with any number of horses in the other position. For example, if you were to play a $1 exacta wheel 3-with-All in an eight-horse field (3 with 1,2,4,5,6,7,8 – seven $1 combinations) it would cost you $7. EXACTA WHEEL If you like one horse and want to play it with all other combinations of the rest of the field, so that any other horse can run second, that's called wheeling.For example, if you like the #2 horse and want to play him to win, with all the other horses in the race, you'll say to the mutuel clerk "$1 Exacta, wheel the #2 on top."

[index] [4250] [340] [5234] [7005] [138] [5652] [6859] [10872] [12261] [13702]