Bitcoin (BTC) Price Index — CoinDesk 20

[Question] Is there an app or a chart that shows how long price of a bitcoin has been above a certain value? (example: Price of bitcoin has been above $800 for a total of X days since 2009)

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[Question] Is there an app or a chart that shows how long price of a bitcoin has been above a certain value? (example: Price of bitcoin has been above $800 for a total of X days since 2009) /r/btc

[Question] Is there an app or a chart that shows how long price of a bitcoin has been above a certain value? (example: Price of bitcoin has been above $800 for a total of X days since 2009) /btc submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
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COVID-19's Economic Impact in Canada: a collection of stats on jobs losses, investment returns, consumer confidence, interest rates, housing, and future forecasts

Over the past few weeks, the COVID crisis has hurt the Canadian economy and the average Canadian's financial situation in more ways than one.
I tried to tally up the damage by going through the info that's been published thus far (by Stats Can, the Bank of Canada, the Parliamentary Budget Officer, news sites, etc.), and have put together some visualizations and commentary on the data.
In summary:
Jobs
Investments (2020 year-to-date returns)
Consumer Confidence
Interest Rates
Housing
Post-COVID Economic Forecasts
On April 9th, Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer released a “scenario analysis” report on the potential impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy.
 
These points are addressed in chart form at the link above. You can download a spreadsheet which contains all of the source data / charts.
There's also a summary of the emergency response initiatives announced by the federal government (CERB, GST credit, CCB one-time payment, the 75% wage subsidy, etc.), and thoughts about steps that Canadians can take today to improve their financial situation.
I'll continue to update the page as new economic stats roll-in, and as the government announces new initiatives.
I'd love to hear your thoughts about COVID's economic impact in Canada. Also, please feel free to share any other stats, articles, or reports that you think are relevant!
 
Edit: typo.
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Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin (as a) Store of Value - update

The earliest price I could find for 1 Bitcoin is $0.0009. This means that Bitcoin has appreciated against the USD by 859,555,455% since October 12, 2009, even after today's pullback.
Gold, in comparison (the world's premier SoV) has appreciated by a mere 60.32% over the exact same time period.
It's very important during extreme volatility over short time periods to retain overall perspective.
submitted by ThoroughlyFree to btc [link] [comments]

Does the increase in bitcoin hashrate correlate with bitcoin price?

Bitcoin hashrate indicates the strength of its Blockchain network. Studying the foregoing statement, it may also mean that the bitcoin price is influenced somehow. The increase in price value of bitcoin has consistently been a controversial subject across mainstream media, since the birth of bitcoin back in 2009.

Similarity in hash rates from 2009 and price changes

Although most publications reject cryptocurrency as extremely unpredictable and arbitrary, certain data sets indicate that market fluctuations can be traced back to common metrics. Using data from https://blockchain.com and the superimposing market background to test patterns, Reddit post noticed the strange similarity in Bitcoin hash rates from 2009 and price changes.
For marginal traders, the observation appears useful — purchasing bitcoin once values rise above the hash value result precedes major price increases in four instances accompanied by a slow sell-off. This correlation means that bitcoin is not as random as the popular consensus appears to say. Transaction costs, pricing behaviour, technological research, and simple news both drive bitcoin rates, just like conventional markets.

The Holy Grail of bitcoin hashrate

In contrast, the mining operation and price of Bitcoin have risen steadily since 2009, suggesting a wider sample collection to be measured before utilizing hash rates as a feasible trading strategy. The increase of price seems to have created numerous speculative and retail interests within the cryptocurrency world, where stakeholders are looking to make fast profits with little intention of utilizing digital assets in the real world.
However, this Connection is not exempt from scrutiny. Most Reddit users have gone on to refer hash rates and prices as chicken-and-egg games; moreover, the hash rate chart has recently been showing signs of flat-lining. Bitcoin’s statistical sophistication has multiplied — showing that a staggering 74 quintillion calculations take place every second — and on the 12th of May, 2020 the mining rewards are expected to plummet to only 6.25 BTC.
Finally, a flat line could mean that bitcoin hashrate could reach its zenith and stabilize in the nearest future, with increased mining costs and lower rewards, even as the value of bitcoin decouples from the hashrate data. completely
submitted by PresentType to bitcoingameinfo [link] [comments]

Don't sell your XLM

Don't sell your XLM
The coronavirus epidemic is on everyone’s mind right now — together with the losses in the crypto market. But even though the situation isn’t looking good right now, we are pretty certain that the crisis in the crypto market will pass. The price of XLM will grow again, so don’t sell your coins!
Do you remember what happened in the crypto market when the virus outbreak started in China? Bitcoin price skyrocketed to $10,000. People said that the virus is good for Bitcoin. The idea was that investors would sell their stocks and buy Bitcoin to protect their wealth.
Fast-forward a couple of months, and we’re living in a different world. In the past couple of weeks, Bitcoin lost half of its value. Sure, it happened before, but never so fast and never by so much is USD equivalent. With over $4000 off the price in a week, billions of dollars were wiped out. And it’s not just a big sell-off — some say that institutional investors are offloading their BTC in panic.
Stellar followed suit, unfortunately. The chart has been in the red for days. But does this mean you should sell? No. Here are 3 reasons why the price of Stellar will rise again, and quite soon.
1) Fundamentally crypto isn’t really tied to real-world assets. Analysts proved this using data for the past 10 years, since the era of crypto began. There is no long-term correlation between the price of BTC and other digital currencies and the price of oil. Stocks, gold and so on. What we are seeing now is simply panic, human emotions.
XLM and other coins can react to events in the world for a short while, but they don’t follow the same trends, even in the mid-term. When Bitcoin halving comes in May, it will be more important than the virus.
2) China is reopening for business. As you know, most of global crypto mining is concentrated in China. Of course, Stellar isn’t mined, but it’s sensitive to the market as a whole, and to the price of Bitcoin. And Bitcoin is mined — mostly in China. A couple of months ago we were worried that Chinese mining farms would close, that ASIC chip manufacturers would close etc. But now the epidemic in China is over, companies are reopening, people are starting to go to work. This means that the crypto mining industry is also safe.
3) There will be a boom once the outbreak is over. After each huge crisis, there is explosive growth. It happened after the swine flu in 2009, and it will likely happen this time. Western countries are taking very drastic measures to contain the virus, and these measures are working. So don’t believe people who say that everyone is going to day. The emergency might last several months, but when it’s over, the crypto market will explode in a good way. Stellar has a particularly strong potential for growth, because it was quite cheap even before the epidemic.
What’s the bottom line? Don’t sell your XLM. Keep them in our XLMwallet and simply wait.
Remember that XLMwallet is the best place to store your Stellar, because you can:
- Send XLM to email addresses;
- Launch your own assets and ICOs;
- Easily merge Stellar accounts;
- Open new accounts right inside the wallet;
- Get balance updates on any device;
- Manage multiple accounts…
…and more!
Next time we’ll remind you about the advantages of the wallet in more detail. For now, stay safe, don’t panic and hold on to your crypto!

https://xlmwallet.co/
submitted by Stellar__wallet to XLM_wallet [link] [comments]

If you hodl or trade, you`re the biggest problem with the world of cryptocurrencies.

There`s 3 components to a market economy: Spending, Savings & Investments. We only have 2 and those are way off balance.
Spending: Payments. Drives Inclusion & Adoption. Represents the primary bridge to real world assets.
Saving: Store of Value, Essential driver for stability. The ideea that your holdings are safe over time and don`t depreciate.
Investments: Trading, drives value of the economy, corrects inflation.
State of the nation:
IF there`s any chance at adoption, don`t just HODL. Don`t just DayTrade. Spend what you have. Money needs to move.
The moment you start spending a portion of cryptocurrencies, that money moves. The entire supply chain benefits. Miners Mine, Exchangers Exchange, Businesses get paid, Taxes get taxed. The underlying value of your holdings grows as you tell more people how you paid your AliBaba supplier in Bitcoin and didn`t have any trouble with your EU based bank making a fuss over "why you`re sending money to Asia".
If the only thing you do with Crypto is to buy it, hold it or trade it, it has no impact on real life. It`s not inviting more people to use it. Demand doesn`t grow. the value chain remains closed and non-inclusive. And it`s against the basic principles of Blockchain. You, the person who only has 10 USD in Dogecoin or the Hodler who has 8 bitcoins since Satoshi was in diapers, you`re responsible for the value of your assets and growth of your community. If you don`t SPEND it, people around you have NO reason to adopt. And if they do adopt, they do it for the wrong reasons and simply add to the volatility.
Introduction:
I`ve been in this space since 2009, reading all I could get my hands on. Coming from a poorly banked background and still having frustrations due to the inability of making online purchases at the time, just coming out of a recession, Bitcoin`s vision struck a nerve with me. I`ve been an avid believer in blockchain ever since and at no point did I buy crypto to store value, hedge my bets, invest, digital gold or any of this. I went in because it was, and still is: the easiest way to send money across the world. Ethereum`s smart contracts bring this simple function to a new level, introducing conditions to be met for the transfer itself. Simple, open, transparent, inclusive. Period.
What we`ve become, as a community:
As a whole, this community went from a group of passionate people who wanted an alternative to banks, government and politics, people who wanted to deal directly with other people, to something weird I can`t describe as a whole, but more as personas. Here`s what I`m seeing:
  1. The "I wanna buy Pizza with Bitcoin" crowd. I`m one of them. We just wanted a simple alternative, we were okay with volatility because we always knew the more people use it, more stable it gets as an alternative currency. Conspiracy theorists, tech geeks, scientists, curious people fascinated by the endless possibilities of a global, open banking system, built by the people, for the people. Joined from the first 3-4 years of Bitcoin, many still join it.
  2. The Hodlers: Also coined as the true "Believers". They`re responsible for the initial traction, and would rather liquidate their house than to "sell off" their Bitcoins. They see Bitcoin and other currencies as a "store of value" and see not much difference between buying/storing Gold and Crypto. Joined after the first group and peacefully co-existed with everybody so far. Most dedicated miners came from this group/generation of adopters.
  3. The Traders: People coming from the finance world. They either did Hedgefunds, Forex, VC. Smart opportunists that saw the first 2 groups, saw the potential value of the system as something to be gained from (nothing wrong with this) and heavily capitalize on it. These were the first guys to look at crypto as financial instruments and started fighting the compliance game. This is also where market manipulation started.
  4. The "Tokenize the world" generation. Driven by technology on one side, by the ICO madness on the other side, this opportunistic group wanted to create a token (and respective ICOs) for everything they could think of. Huge similarities between how everything needed a website in the 2000`s, everything needed an app in 2010, everything needed a coin/token started around 2016. Dogecoin is the perfect example of a joke that got way out of proportion, while the original ideea was to make fun of this particular group. Oh well, this group still garners a lot of traction/interest. This group is why we have 3000 shitcoins and who knows how many that never saw the light of day.
  5. The Consultants, Gurus, Ninjas. The "know it all`s". They`re all about the TREND, not about the substance. In the 90`s we had the "internet consultants" who were selling strategies for people to get online. Later the same people were selling strategies to get website traffic. Later, it was about the apps or about the cloud. Right now, it`s about blockchain, token economics, go to market, liquidity, or investing. Some are super smart, most are useless. The only thing that really bothers me is that consultants take no ownership in the success or failure of what they`re selling. As long as you cover their fees, they don`t care if their advice works or not and usually blame you for failing. These are the "market makers" of today, the youtube/facebook/twitteinstagram investment gurus who look at charts for 4 hours and make predictions without really having any skin in the game. Here`s what I never got my head around, if you know how to make a market for a coin, or really know how to invest in crypto.... WHY would you charge me 20k when you can make millions for yourself in less time than that? I guess it holds true: those that can, DO, those that can`t, Teach.
This brings us to the state of the market today.
Proposed solution:
Don`t wait for your government to regulate, don`t wait for banks or institutional investors to kick in, don`t wait for the media frenzy. Just do your part: spend, save and invest your crypto just as you would your USD/Euro/Yen/etc. If you`re a freelancer, accept crypto payments. if you run a business, accept crypto payments. If you have crypto, make crypto payments. This is the main reason we have crypto today and it`s exactly what we don`t use it for. Go back to basics and let`s see how influenced by "market volatility" or "market manipulation" or "media bias" the price will get.
Disclosure: Yes, trying to solve the adoption issue has led me to build a platform for e-commerce that also solves crypto-to-fiat payments for more than 2000 tokens. We walk the walk, not talk the talk.
I`d love to hear if you guys agree or disagree, and most importantly, Why?
C:\>
P.S. I love you
submitted by chrisorasanusdk to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

If you just hodl or trade, you`re the biggest problem with the world of cryptocurrencies.

TL;DR: There`s 3 components to a market economy: Spending, Savings & Investments. We only have 2 and those are way off balance.
Spending: Payments. Drives Inclusion & Adoption. Represents the primary bridge to real world assets.
Saving: Store of Value, Essential driver for stability. The ideea that your holdings are safe over time and don`t depreciate.
Investments: Trading, drives value of the economy, corrects inflation.
State of the nation:
IF there`s any chance at adoption, don`t just HODL. Don`t just DayTrade. Spend what you have. Money needs to move.
The moment you start spending a portion of cryptocurrencies, that money moves. The entire supply chain benefits. Miners Mine, Exchangers Exchange, Businesses get paid, Taxes get taxed. The underlying value of your holdings grows as you tell more people how you paid your AliBaba supplier in Bitcoin and didn`t have any trouble with your EU based bank making a fuss over "why you`re sending money to Asia".
If the only thing you do with Crypto is to buy it, hold it or trade it, it has no impact on real life. It`s not inviting more people to use it. Demand doesn`t grow. the value chain remains closed and non-inclusive. And it`s against the basic principles of Blockchain. You, the person who only has 10 USD in Dogecoin or the Hodler who has 8 bitcoins since Satoshi was in diapers, you`re responsible for the value of your assets and growth of your community. If you don`t SPEND it, people around you have NO reason to adopt. And if they do adopt, they do it for the wrong reasons and simply add to the volatility.
Introduction:
I`ve been in this space since 2009, reading all I could get my hands on. Coming from a poorly banked background and still having frustrations due to the inability of making online purchases at the time, just coming out of a recession, Bitcoin`s vision struck a nerve with me. I`ve been an avid believer in blockchain ever since and at no point did I buy crypto to store value, hedge my bets, invest, digital gold or any of this. I went in because it was, and still is: the easiest way to send money across the world. Ethereum`s smart contracts bring this simple function to a new level, introducing conditions to be met for the transfer itself. Simple, open, transparent, inclusive. Period.
What we`ve become, as a community:
As a whole, this community went from a group of passionate people who wanted an alternative to banks, government and politics, people who wanted to deal directly with other people, to something weird I can`t describe as a whole, but more as personas. Here`s what I`m seeing:
  1. The "I wanna buy Pizza with Bitcoin" crowd. I`m one of them. We just wanted a simple alternative, we were okay with volatility because we always knew the more people use it, more stable it gets as an alternative currency. Conspiracy theorists, tech geeks, scientists, curious people fascinated by the endless possibilities of a global, open banking system, built by the people, for the people. Joined from the first 3-4 years of Bitcoin, many still join it.
  2. The Hodlers: Also coined as the true "Believers". They`re responsible for the initial traction, and would rather liquidate their house than to "sell off" their Bitcoins. They see Bitcoin and other currencies as a "store of value" and see not much difference between buying/storing Gold and Crypto. Joined after the first group and peacefully co-existed with everybody so far. Most dedicated miners came from this group/generation of adopters.
  3. The Traders: People coming from the finance world. They either did Hedgefunds, Forex, VC. Smart opportunists that saw the first 2 groups, saw the potential value of the system as something to be gained from (nothing wrong with this) and heavily capitalize on it. These were the first guys to look at crypto as financial instruments and started fighting the compliance game. This is also where market manipulation started.
  4. The "Tokenize the world" generation. Driven by technology on one side, by the ICO madness on the other side, this opportunistic group wanted to create a token (and respective ICOs) for everything they could think of. Huge similarities between how everything needed a website in the 2000`s, everything needed an app in 2010, everything needed a coin/token started around 2016. Dogecoin is the perfect example of a joke that got way out of proportion, while the original ideea was to make fun of this particular group. Oh well, this group still garners a lot of traction/interest. This group is why we have 3000 secondary coins and who knows how many that never saw the light of day.
  5. The Consultants, Gurus, Ninjas. The "know it all`s". They`re all about the TREND, not about the substance. In the 90`s we had the "internet consultants" who were selling strategies for people to get online. Later the same people were selling strategies to get website traffic. Later, it was about the apps or about the cloud. Right now, it`s about blockchain, token economics, go to market, liquidity, or investing. Some are super smart, most are useless. The only thing that really bothers me is that consultants take no ownership in the success or failure of what they`re selling. As long as you cover their fees, they don`t care if their advice works or not and usually blame you for failing. These are the "market makers" of today, the youtube/facebook/twitteinstagram investment gurus who look at charts for 4 hours and make predictions without really having any skin in the game. Here`s what I never got my head around, if you know how to make a market for a coin, or really know how to invest in crypto.... WHY would you charge me 20k when you can make millions for yourself in less time than that? I guess it holds true: those that can, DO, those that can`t, Teach.
This brings us to the state of the market today.
Proposed solution:
Don`t wait for your government to regulate, don`t wait for banks or institutional investors to kick in, don`t wait for the media frenzy. Just do your part: spend, save and invest your crypto just as you would your USD/Euro/Yen/etc. If you`re a freelancer, accept crypto payments. if you run a business, accept crypto payments. If you have crypto, make crypto payments. This is the main reason we have crypto today and it`s exactly what we don`t use it for. Go back to basics and let`s see how influenced by "market volatility" or "market manipulation" or "media bias" the price will get.
Disclosure: Yes, trying to solve the adoption issue has led me to build a platform for e-commerce that also solves crypto-to-fiat payments for more than 2000 tokens. We walk the walk, not talk the talk.
I`d love to hear if you guys agree or disagree, and most importantly, Why?
C:\>
P.S. I love you
submitted by chrisorasanusdk to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Bitcoin (BTC) Has Seen One Major Rally During Each Block Reward Era

Bitcoin (BTC) Has Seen One Major Rally During Each Block Reward Era

https://preview.redd.it/lf7p0zqyn5d21.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=09a9c48586f96f1dda44b4a1af2d69b8bf57aa4f
https://cryptoiq.co/bitcoin-btc-has-seen-one-major-rally-during-each-block-reward-era/
So far, there have been 3 block reward eras for Bitcoin (BTC). The first era started with the genesis block in early January 2009, and there were 50 Bitcoin per block. The second era began at block 210,000 in late November 2012, and the block reward halved to 25 Bitcoin. The third era, which we are in as of this writing, began at block 420,000 in early July 2016. The block reward is now 12.5 Bitcoin.
When we overlay block reward halving dates on a logarithmic chart of Bitcoin’s price (below), it becomes apparent that there has been one major rally during each block reward era, at least so far. Further, roughly a year before the block halving that begins the era, the major rally of that era begins.

Source: @MoonOverlord on Twitter
As can be seen in the above chart the Bitcoin rally of late 2013 which brought Bitcoin over $1,000 for the first time occurred towards the middle of the 2nd era, and the rally to $20,000 in late 2017 occurred near the middle of the third era.
The fourth block reward era, when block rewards will be slashed to 6.25 Bitcoin, will start at block 630,000, projected to occur in May 2020. If the trend in the above chart continues, Bitcoin would bottom in late Spring or early Summer 2019 and then rally for one to two years to new all-time highs.
There may be some causation to this correlation. We expect that block halvings would help increase Bitcoin’s price since the rate of creation from mining is slashed. That means the Bitcoin inflation rate is halved. In the presence of increasing demand, the halving of the inflow of new Bitcoin would increase its price.
That said, there are many other factors that influence Bitcoin’s market cycles, making it perhaps overly simplistic to say that Bitcoin’s past two market cycles have been entirely due to the block halving. This correlation could be a coincidence.
It’s worth noting, however, that the rally of late 2013 ended as Mt. Gox collapsed, and the rally of 2017 ended as CME Bitcoin futures were launched and introduced massive short selling pressure.
Nonetheless, traders and investors pricing in the next block halving may apply upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price when May 2020 approaches. It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself and Bitcoin sees new all-time highs during the fourth block reward era.
submitted by turtlecane to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Safe Harbours and Storms | Monthly Portfolio Update - May 2019

Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty. – Tacitus
This is my thirtieth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals.
Portfolio goals
My objectives are to reach a portfolio of:
*$1 598 000 by 31 December 2020. This should produce a real income of about $67 000 (Objective #1) *$1 980 000 by 31 July 2023, to produce a passive income equivalent to $83 000 (Objective #2)
Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19%, or a nominal return of 7.19%, and are expressed in 2018 dollars.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $745 158 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $43 119 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $77 915 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $105 821 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $80 408 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $246 012 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 937 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $13 376 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $8 178 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $85 424 Secured physical gold – $13 652 Ratesetter* (P2P lending) – $23 262 Bitcoin – $132 720 Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $15 130 Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $1 883 BrickX* (P2P rental real estate) – $4 629 Total value: $1 598 624 (+$57 037)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 40.9% (4.1% under) Global shares – 22.3% Emerging markets shares – 2.6% International small companies – 3.3% Total international shares – 28.2% (1.8% under) Total shares – 69.1% (5.9% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 5.5% International bonds – 10.5% Total bonds – 16.0% (1.0% over) Gold – 6.2% Bitcoin – 8.3% Gold and alternatives – 14.5% (4.5% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
The portfolio has experienced strong growth through the month, with a total increase of around $57 000.
This fifth month of continuous growth has seen an important event occur ahead of schedule. Portfolio Objective #1 - which is the 'median income' FIRE target that was the goal set at the start of this record in December 2016 - has been narrowly achieved.
[Chart]
My expectation at the beginning of this year was to reach this particular goal only at the end of 2020. This itself was shifted forward from the original goal of passing a slightly lower median income objective by July 2021. The net result of all of this is that a higher absolute portfolio objective has been reached more than two years early.
This achievement may be temporary, as it comes following the equal second longest run of monthly gains in this record. Just an average monthly fall could easily see the portfolio dip well below the objective again, and a prolonged downturn in share markets could easily lead to major declines which would take some time to recover from. At this stage, given that my final Objective #2 is still some distance away and further accumulation is planned, this prospect does not overly concern me.
The portfolio performance this month largely reflects the same drivers that have dominated performance since the journey began. These drivers have been new contributions and increases in Australian shares (through Betashares A200), particularly since the Federal election. In addition, there has been a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin. This led to a portfolio growth which was the sixth highest in the record to date.
[Chart]
Credit card spending has been significantly lower than average over the past month. It has been the lowest level in six years in fact. As the series below indicates, however, it is a volatile measure.
Once financial year 2018-19 figures on distributions are finalised early next month, it's likely the the red line of distributions, which currently is an estimate based on low December half year figures, will be revised up. This in turn could mean a return to distributions on average coming close to meeting credit card expenses.
Progress
Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 100.0% 137.3% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 80.7% 110.8% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 91.8% 126.0% Total expenses - $96 000pa 69.8% 95.8%
Summary
Progress over the last few months has been swift and surprising. Timelines set less than six months ago have been met, and the portfolio has entered into the 'between' phase of being above my minimum Objective #1, but some distance from my ultimate goal (Objective #2).
Part of the process of adapting to this phase is understanding its true nature - its permanence or otherwise, and looking through short-term movements to try to discern the underlying picture. In short, inspection and delay.
This what lies behind recent posts seeking to analyse the income potential of the portfolio, and longer term trends in distributions and expenses. Seeking the additional data point of what this portfolio delivers currently is the reason I am straining forward to see the size and shape of the end of June distributions.
The advice commonly offered in the financial independence community at this point is crystal clear. Pay less attention to the numbers, and start exploring and building the life you desire now. The advice is so universal, and so intuitively sensible that I do not ignore it. With Australian and global equity markets poised as they are, however, I feel a resisting force going too far down this path. This is mostly stemming from a suspicion that prior to the goal being reached there might be one or more unavoidable challenges to come.
This may be linked to an increased probability of Australian interest rate reductions, and even the entry by Australian monetary authorities into some form of quantitative easing. As inflation stalls, and housing markets decline, the macroeconomic conditions appear less predictable than at any time since 2009. Some of the global financial trends and developments that are of most concern are well discussed in the most recent Incrementum AG In Gold We Trust report, which has as its theme tracing declining trust across the global financial system.
While that outlook might suggest protective action, overall I am comfortable with the extent of my diversification across less-correlated assets. It should be remembered that I felt similar unease two years ago - and that indulging in market timing at that point would have had high opportunity costs.
In any case, more and more it is evident that the performance of the portfolio is not something that can be materially altered by one or two monthly investment decisions. Rather, it is a function of the interaction of unstable markets with the compound effect of hundreds of smaller individual investment contribution decisions taken over the past decade or so across a range of different market conditions.
Following on from my quick Bitcoin and gold correlation analysis last month, I was interested to see this 'portfolio optimisation' based analysis on the potential role of Bitcoin in a portfolio, using just seven years of historical data. Also, this What's Up Next podcast on finding the right time to retire is a fascinating discussion of the issue of knowing when it is time to put into action FIRE plans. Finally, Aussie HIFIRE has recently pulled together a post highlighting the different voices in the Australian FIRE blogging community for readers.
As winter takes hold, the portfolio is prepared for as yet undefined challenges and storms that may emerge, and I remain intensely curious at what the coming set of distributions will disclose about the distance I still have to travel. One port gained, the next leg of the journey beckons.
The post and graphs can be viewed here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

CRYPTOCURRENCY BITCOIN

CRYPTOCURRENCY BITCOIN
Bitcoin Table of contents expand: 1. What is Bitcoin? 2. Understanding Bitcoin 3. How Bitcoin Works 4. What's a Bitcoin Worth? 5. How Bitcoin Began 6. Who Invented Bitcoin? 7. Before Satoshi 8. Why Is Satoshi Anonymous? 9. The Suspects 10. Can Satoshi's Identity Be Proven? 11. Receiving Bitcoins As Payment 12. Working For Bitcoins 13. Bitcoin From Interest Payments 14. Bitcoins From Gambling 15. Investing in Bitcoins 16. Risks of Bitcoin Investing 17. Bitcoin Regulatory Risk 18. Security Risk of Bitcoins 19. Insurance Risk 20. Risk of Bitcoin Fraud 21. Market Risk 22. Bitcoin's Tax Risk What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a digital currency created in January 2009. It follows the ideas set out in a white paper by the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto, whose true identity is yet to be verified. Bitcoin offers the promise of lower transaction fees than traditional online payment mechanisms and is operated by a decentralized authority, unlike government-issued currencies.
There are no physical bitcoins, only balances kept on a public ledger in the cloud, that – along with all Bitcoin transactions – is verified by a massive amount of computing power. Bitcoins are not issued or backed by any banks or governments, nor are individual bitcoins valuable as a commodity. Despite it not being legal tender, Bitcoin charts high on popularity, and has triggered the launch of other virtual currencies collectively referred to as Altcoins.
Understanding Bitcoin Bitcoin is a type of cryptocurrency: Balances are kept using public and private "keys," which are long strings of numbers and letters linked through the mathematical encryption algorithm that was used to create them. The public key (comparable to a bank account number) serves as the address which is published to the world and to which others may send bitcoins. The private key (comparable to an ATM PIN) is meant to be a guarded secret and only used to authorize Bitcoin transmissions. Style notes: According to the official Bitcoin Foundation, the word "Bitcoin" is capitalized in the context of referring to the entity or concept, whereas "bitcoin" is written in the lower case when referring to a quantity of the currency (e.g. "I traded 20 bitcoin") or the units themselves. The plural form can be either "bitcoin" or "bitcoins."
How Bitcoin Works Bitcoin is one of the first digital currencies to use peer-to-peer technology to facilitate instant payments. The independent individuals and companies who own the governing computing power and participate in the Bitcoin network, also known as "miners," are motivated by rewards (the release of new bitcoin) and transaction fees paid in bitcoin. These miners can be thought of as the decentralized authority enforcing the credibility of the Bitcoin network. New bitcoin is being released to the miners at a fixed, but periodically declining rate, such that the total supply of bitcoins approaches 21 million. One bitcoin is divisible to eight decimal places (100 millionths of one bitcoin), and this smallest unit is referred to as a Satoshi. If necessary, and if the participating miners accept the change, Bitcoin could eventually be made divisible to even more decimal places. Bitcoin mining is the process through which bitcoins are released to come into circulation. Basically, it involves solving a computationally difficult puzzle to discover a new block, which is added to the blockchain and receiving a reward in the form of a few bitcoins. The block reward was 50 new bitcoins in 2009; it decreases every four years. As more and more bitcoins are created, the difficulty of the mining process – that is, the amount of computing power involved – increases. The mining difficulty began at 1.0 with Bitcoin's debut back in 2009; at the end of the year, it was only 1.18. As of February 2019, the mining difficulty is over 6.06 billion. Once, an ordinary desktop computer sufficed for the mining process; now, to combat the difficulty level, miners must use faster hardware like Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASIC), more advanced processing units like Graphic Processing Units (GPUs), etc.
What's a Bitcoin Worth? In 2017 alone, the price of Bitcoin rose from a little under $1,000 at the beginning of the year to close to $19,000, ending the year more than 1,400% higher. Bitcoin's price is also quite dependent on the size of its mining network since the larger the network is, the more difficult – and thus more costly – it is to produce new bitcoins. As a result, the price of bitcoin has to increase as its cost of production also rises. The Bitcoin mining network's aggregate power has more than tripled over the past twelve months.
How Bitcoin Began
Aug. 18, 2008: The domain name bitcoin.org is registered. Today, at least, this domain is "WhoisGuard Protected," meaning the identity of the person who registered it is not public information.
Oct. 31, 2008: Someone using the name Satoshi Nakamoto makes an announcement on The Cryptography Mailing list at metzdowd.com: "I've been working on a new electronic cash system that's fully peer-to-peer, with no trusted third party. The paper is available at http://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf." This link leads to the now-famous white paper published on bitcoin.org entitled "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System." This paper would become the Magna Carta for how Bitcoin operates today.
Jan. 3, 2009: The first Bitcoin block is mined, Block 0. This is also known as the "genesis block" and contains the text: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks," perhaps as proof that the block was mined on or after that date, and perhaps also as relevant political commentary.
Jan. 8, 2009: The first version of the Bitcoin software is announced on The Cryptography Mailing list.
Jan. 9, 2009: Block 1 is mined, and Bitcoin mining commences in earnest.
Who Invented Bitcoin?
No one knows. Not conclusively, at any rate. Satoshi Nakamoto is the name associated with the person or group of people who released the original Bitcoin white paper in 2008 and worked on the original Bitcoin software that was released in 2009. The Bitcoin protocol requires users to enter a birthday upon signup, and we know that an individual named Satoshi Nakamoto registered and put down April 5 as a birth date. And that's about it.
Before Satoshi
Though it is tempting to believe the media's spin that Satoshi Nakamoto is a solitary, quixotic genius who created Bitcoin out of thin air, such innovations do not happen in a vacuum. All major scientific discoveries, no matter how original-seeming, were built on previously existing research. There are precursors to Bitcoin: Adam Back’s Hashcash, invented in 1997, and subsequently Wei Dai’s b-money, Nick Szabo’s bit gold and Hal Finney’s Reusable Proof of Work. The Bitcoin white paper itself cites Hashcash and b-money, as well as various other works spanning several research fields.
Why Is Satoshi Anonymous?
There are two primary motivations for keeping Bitcoin's inventor keeping his or her or their identity secret. One is privacy. As Bitcoin has gained in popularity – becoming something of a worldwide phenomenon – Satoshi Nakamoto would likely garner a lot of attention from the media and from governments.
The other reason is safety. Looking at 2009 alone, 32,489 blocks were mined; at the then-reward rate of 50 BTC per block, the total payout in 2009 was 1,624,500 BTC, which at today’s prices is over $900 million. One may conclude that only Satoshi and perhaps a few other people were mining through 2009 and that they possess a majority of that $900 million worth of BTC. Someone in possession of that much BTC could become a target of criminals, especially since bitcoins are less like stocks and more like cash, where the private keys needed to authorize spending could be printed out and literally kept under a mattress. While it's likely the inventor of Bitcoin would take precautions to make any extortion-induced transfers traceable, remaining anonymous is a good way for Satoshi to limit exposure.
The Suspects
Numerous people have been suggested as possible Satoshi Nakamoto by major media outlets. Oct. 10, 2011, The New Yorker published an article speculating that Nakamoto might be Irish cryptography student Michael Clear or economic sociologist Vili Lehdonvirta. A day later, Fast Company suggested that Nakamoto could be a group of three people – Neal King, Vladimir Oksman and Charles Bry – who together appear on a patent related to secure communications that were filed two months before bitcoin.org was registered. A Vice article published in May 2013 added more suspects to the list, including Gavin Andresen, the Bitcoin project’s lead developer; Jed McCaleb, co-founder of now-defunct Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox; and famed Japanese mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki.
In December 2013, Techcrunch published an interview with researcher Skye Grey who claimed textual analysis of published writings shows a link between Satoshi and bit-gold creator Nick Szabo. And perhaps most famously, in March 2014, Newsweek ran a cover article claiming that Satoshi is actually an individual named Satoshi Nakamoto – a 64-year-old Japanese-American engineer living in California. The list of suspects is long, and all the individuals deny being Satoshi.
Can Satoshi's Identity Be Proven?
It would seem even early collaborators on the project don’t have verifiable proof of Satoshi’s identity. To reveal conclusively who Satoshi Nakamoto is, a definitive link would need to be made between his/her activity with Bitcoin and his/her identity. That could come in the form of linking the party behind the domain registration of bitcoin.org, email and forum accounts used by Satoshi Nakamoto, or ownership of some portion of the earliest mined bitcoins. Even though the bitcoins Satoshi likely possesses are traceable on the blockchain, it seems he/she has yet to cash them out in a way that reveals his/her identity. If Satoshi were to move his/her bitcoins to an exchange today, this might attract attention, but it seems unlikely that a well-funded and successful exchange would betray a customer's privacy.
Receiving Bitcoins As Payment
Bitcoins can be accepted as a means of payment for products sold or services provided. If you have a brick and mortar store, just display a sign saying “Bitcoin Accepted Here” and many of your customers may well take you up on it; the transactions can be handled with the requisite hardware terminal or wallet address through QR codes and touch screen apps. An online business can easily accept bitcoins by just adding this payment option to the others it offers, like credit cards, PayPal, etc. Online payments will require a Bitcoin merchant tool (an external processor like Coinbase or BitPay).
Working For Bitcoins
Those who are self-employed can get paid for a job in bitcoins. There are several websites/job boards which are dedicated to the digital currency:
Work For Bitcoin brings together work seekers and prospective employers through its websiteCoinality features jobs – freelance, part-time and full-time – that offer payment in bitcoins, as well as Dogecoin and LitecoinJobs4Bitcoins, part of reddit.comBitGigs
Bitcoin From Interest Payments
Another interesting way (literally) to earn bitcoins is by lending them out and being repaid in the currency. Lending can take three forms – direct lending to someone you know; through a website which facilitates peer-to-peer transactions, pairing borrowers and lenders; or depositing bitcoins in a virtual bank that offers a certain interest rate for Bitcoin accounts. Some such sites are Bitbond, BitLendingClub, and BTCjam. Obviously, you should do due diligence on any third-party site.
Bitcoins From Gambling
It’s possible to play at casinos that cater to Bitcoin aficionados, with options like online lotteries, jackpots, spread betting, and other games. Of course, the pros and cons and risks that apply to any sort of gambling and betting endeavors are in force here too.
Investing in Bitcoins
There are many Bitcoin supporters who believe that digital currency is the future. Those who endorse it are of the view that it facilitates a much faster, no-fee payment system for transactions across the globe. Although it is not itself any backed by any government or central bank, bitcoin can be exchanged for traditional currencies; in fact, its exchange rate against the dollar attracts potential investors and traders interested in currency plays. Indeed, one of the primary reasons for the growth of digital currencies like Bitcoin is that they can act as an alternative to national fiat money and traditional commodities like gold.
In March 2014, the IRS stated that all virtual currencies, including bitcoins, would be taxed as property rather than currency. Gains or losses from bitcoins held as capital will be realized as capital gains or losses, while bitcoins held as inventory will incur ordinary gains or losses.
Like any other asset, the principle of buying low and selling high applies to bitcoins. The most popular way of amassing the currency is through buying on a Bitcoin exchange, but there are many other ways to earn and own bitcoins. Here are a few options which Bitcoin enthusiasts can explore.
Risks of Bitcoin Investing
Though Bitcoin was not designed as a normal equity investment (no shares have been issued), some speculative investors were drawn to the digital money after it appreciated rapidly in May 2011 and again in November 2013. Thus, many people purchase bitcoin for its investment value rather than as a medium of exchange.
However, their lack of guaranteed value and digital nature means the purchase and use of bitcoins carries several inherent risks. Many investor alerts have been issued by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), and other agencies.
The concept of a virtual currency is still novel and, compared to traditional investments, Bitcoin doesn't have much of a long-term track record or history of credibility to back it. With their increasing use, bitcoins are becoming less experimental every day, of course; still, after eight years, they (like all digital currencies) remain in a development phase, still evolving. "It is pretty much the highest-risk, highest-return investment that you can possibly make,” says Barry Silbert, CEO of Digital Currency Group, which builds and invests in Bitcoin and blockchain companies.
Bitcoin Regulatory Risk
Investing money into Bitcoin in any of its many guises is not for the risk-averse. Bitcoins are a rival to government currency and may be used for black market transactions, money laundering, illegal activities or tax evasion. As a result, governments may seek to regulate, restrict or ban the use and sale of bitcoins, and some already have. Others are coming up with various rules. For example, in 2015, the New York State Department of Financial Services finalized regulations that would require companies dealing with the buy, sell, transfer or storage of bitcoins to record the identity of customers, have a compliance officer and maintain capital reserves. The transactions worth $10,000 or more will have to be recorded and reported.
Although more agencies will follow suit, issuing rules and guidelines, the lack of uniform regulations about bitcoins (and other virtual currency) raises questions over their longevity, liquidity, and universality.
Security Risk of Bitcoins
Bitcoin exchanges are entirely digital and, as with any virtual system, are at risk from hackers, malware and operational glitches. If a thief gains access to a Bitcoin owner's computer hard drive and steals his private encryption key, he could transfer the stolen Bitcoins to another account. (Users can prevent this only if bitcoins are stored on a computer which is not connected to the internet, or else by choosing to use a paper wallet – printing out the Bitcoin private keys and addresses, and not keeping them on a computer at all.) Hackers can also target Bitcoin exchanges, gaining access to thousands of accounts and digital wallets where bitcoins are stored. One especially notorious hacking incident took place in 2014, when Mt. Gox, a Bitcoin exchange in Japan, was forced to close down after millions of dollars worth of bitcoins were stolen.
This is particularly problematic once you remember that all Bitcoin transactions are permanent and irreversible. It's like dealing with cash: Any transaction carried out with bitcoins can only be reversed if the person who has received them refunds them. There is no third party or a payment processor, as in the case of a debit or credit card – hence, no source of protection or appeal if there is a problem.
Insurance Risk
Some investments are insured through the Securities Investor Protection Corporation. Normal bank accounts are insured through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) up to a certain amount depending on the jurisdiction. Bitcoin exchanges and Bitcoin accounts are not insured by any type of federal or government program.
Risk of Bitcoin Fraud
While Bitcoin uses private key encryption to verify owners and register transactions, fraudsters and scammers may attempt to sell false bitcoins. For instance, in July 2013, the SEC brought legal action against an operator of a Bitcoin-related Ponzi scheme.
Market Risk
Like with any investment, Bitcoin values can fluctuate. Indeed, the value of the currency has seen wild swings in price over its short existence. Subject to high volume buying and selling on exchanges, it has a high sensitivity to “news." According to the CFPB, the price of bitcoins fell by 61% in a single day in 2013, while the one-day price drop in 2014 has been as big as 80%.
If fewer people begin to accept Bitcoin as a currency, these digital units may lose value and could become worthless. There is already plenty of competition, and though Bitcoin has a huge lead over the other 100-odd digital currencies that have sprung up, thanks to its brand recognition and venture capital money, a technological break-through in the form of a better virtual coin is always a threat.
Bitcoin's Tax Risk
As bitcoin is ineligible to be included in any tax-advantaged retirement accounts, there are no good, legal options to shield investments from taxation.
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Related Terms
Satoshi
The satoshi is the smallest unit of the bitcoin cryptocurrency. It is named after Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of the protocol used in block chains and the bitcoin cryptocurrency.
Chartalism Chartalism is a non-mainstream theory of money that emphasizes the impact of government policies and activities on the value of money.
Satoshi Nakamoto The name used by the unknown creator of the protocol used in the bitcoin cryptocurrency. Satoshi Nakamoto is closely-associated with blockchain technology.
Bitcoin Mining, Explained Breaking down everything you need to know about Bitcoin Mining, from Blockchain and Block Rewards to Proof-of-Work and Mining Pools.
Understanding Bitcoin Unlimited Bitcoin Unlimited is a proposed upgrade to Bitcoin Core that allows larger block sizes. The upgrade is designed to improve transaction speed through scale.
Blockchain Explained
A guide to help you understand what blockchain is and how it can be used by industries. You've probably encountered a definition like this: “blockchain is a distributed, decentralized, public ledger." But blockchain is easier to understand than it sounds.
Top 6 Books to Learn About Bitcoin About UsAdvertiseContactPrivacy PolicyTerms of UseCareers Investopedia is part of the Dotdash publishing family.The Balance Lifewire TripSavvy The Spruceand more
By Satoshi Nakamoto
Read it once, go read other crypto stuff, read it again… keep doing this until the whole document makes sense. It’ll take a while, but you’ll get there. This is the original whitepaper introducing and explaining Bitcoin, and there’s really nothing better out there to understand on the subject.
“What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party

submitted by adrian_morrison to BlockchainNews [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Cryptotrading Basis Guide Book by Reslav

Bitcoin Cryptotrading Basis Guide Book by Reslav
https://preview.redd.it/6in97egosnx31.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2e4d1b052b295cb3da49f604fab7a6113321210
I wrote this lecture on the methodology of successful trading, and more specifically on tactics, strategies, subtleties and recommendations, based on 2 years of work on Bitmex, Binance, Gate, Okex bitcoin cryptocurrency exchanges in real combat conditions. Guided by this technique, I managed to earn 500% in excess of the deposit for 7 days of trading (i.e. I increased the deposit amount by 5 times!). These are not fairy tales, but reality, that is, confirming statistics of exchange transactions on the account of the crypto-exchange.
I believe that the knowledge provided in this course will help a beginner to master successful trading only if the course is not only read, but also outlined. It will be important to follow punctually, commenting on your actions in your notes.
In separate consultations, I could give personal instructions on the nuances of technical analysis on various timeframes, signals on entry points, information on trade automation software (algorithmic trading robots), and other tools useful in the work of a trader. But, despite a lot of additional software, my experience has shown that the most effective speculation model on the cryptocurrency and stock exchange, which everyone chooses for themselves based on practical experience, is directly in the online trading mode on exchange terminals. Each exchange is good in its own way, but also has its drawbacks. I chose the best solution for myself and am sure that this is temporary. Perhaps in the future there will be more progressive decentralized exchanges with good liquidity and they will replace the existing platforms managed by market leaders.
Various digital designations, such as: — in what percentage of the deposit do you enter into a particular transaction; — where to put stop limit or market (Market) (market) orders (and whether to place them at all), where to exit the transaction and how. Again, I note that all the selected values ​​are usually individual and depend both on the time trading intervals (TimeFrame) (1m 3m 15m 1h 3h 4h 6h 1 d 1w 1m) and on the deductible amount of the bet in % percentage of the amount of your deposit.
It is important to remember that trading in the cryptocurrency market is a high-risk investment activity that everyone chooses and carries out at their own risk. Remember that with a big bet on the whole, as they say, a patty, and even with 100x-500x leverage, you risk losing your entire deposit right away. An exchange machine or a well-tuned and trained professional broker robot does not cost anything to go against the trend with a tidbit — easy prey. Do not be hamsters i.e. naive simpletons — do not merge the deposit into zero due to elementary greed, incontinence, ardor and other factors that contradict the qualities that a professional trader needs to succeed in trading, namely: cold-bloodedness, endurance, accuracy, punctuality, tact, quick reaction , the ability to quickly enter numbers and timely press the desired buttons.
You ask me: “Hey … guy, you are so smart … I wonder how much you earned from trading or how much you earn or why you don’t do it yourself … why do you need competitors?” — I will answer you: it is no secret that AI (artificial intelligence) has been working on the exchange for a long time and it is constantly improving, but this still does not prevent a person from continuing to beat him. I hope that in the future this trend will not stop otherwise — we have disappeared. And as regards competition — do not worry so much for me, because there is still a trading idea, program or terminal that I have not yet implemented and not reported in this guide after its publication and, perhaps, it will not deprive me of future trading opportunities.
So, the instructions that I follow in the process of trading cryptocurrencies on the exchange terminal in online mode.
  1. It is necessary to wait for the moment of the entry point. You need to enter the deal only then, you feel it and foreseen it in advance according to the levels of the daily period.
  2. It is necessary to carefully weigh their capabilities, ie to consider funds, understanding that futures trading (with leverage) leads to greater risks of liquidation / margin call (MarginCall).
  3. During growth, you need to fix profit and try to sell at a pullback. It is always possible to re-enter a deal, but it is unlikely to return lost profits, instead, you can get several hours of dead weight in the price movement opposite from the planned direction.
  4. It is very important to have cost control, namely, the timely Stop Limit (stop trade order) + sliding Stop Loss (the same thing, only with insurance against a sharp price movement).
  5. It is easy to understand the wave component and accept the movement by levels — press exit buttons in time at 2% and + 10% according to the 1 to 5 principle (we risk one part of the deposit against 5). The Pareto effect has not been canceled: 20% activity, gives 80% effectiveness.
  6. To work with Japanese candles, the ability to draw support levels and resistance lines is enough, but this is not enough for a professional, because the presence of modern advanced indicators, such as MACD, SRSI, Ichimoku Cloud / Signal, horizontal and vertical volume indicator and so on, is very important. Everyone chooses for themselves the indicator that brings more profit to a certain trading range. But remember — the main criterion for success is an understanding of the laws of the market and trade by market. Perhaps this applies to the field of extrasensory perception, metaphysics, and other obscure and hard to prove phenomena and sciences, but one way or another — intuition is clear and has a place to be.
  7. In no case should you enter into short-term breakthrough deals on minute trading with market uncertainty. The situation where minute fluctuations may seem like reversal movements is often quite misleading. If you are in a pose (bull — for growth / long or bear — for fall / short) do not retreat and the market will not slow you to please you with profit. Often, a stock price feed / the same chart manipulates the minds of players, displaying false breakdowns and minute movements, on the basis of which you can not rely on a trend change (this lie is especially evident in minute time intervals / timeframes). In such cases, make decisions only at fundamental levels. On the hourly chart you will see a more truthful picture, because globally, on markets other than minute timeframes, the market is less susceptible to momentary manipulations. This knowledge will give you firmness in the intention and decision-making to remain in the chosen position and not to respond to minor market manipulations. During the day, you may repeatedly wish to unreasonably enter into such transactions, but remember that in this case you will be guaranteed to drain the deposit. Remember — the market from the middle of the trend will go up up or down and hit the stop limit order placed by you (if you play with a large leverage not for your money), after which it will go in the right direction you have chosen. Although in general the situation is banal — you are led by the nose like thousands as well as you. The only true method is to use common sense and avoid uncertainty when trying to enter a pose. A historical analysis of prices, the frequency of ranges (delta) of ups and downs, the degree of volatility and fundamental approaches — to help you. I also want to add that success is in your hands and it consists in the realization of the need not to merge a deposit under any circumstances.
  8. You cannot leave the market unattended, the alarm of the price change alarm is not in your favor or without a stop limit at a reliable exchange platform (broker).
  9. Once again I repeat, you must be prepared in advance for the fact that the market is deceiving and unexpected movements can often occur and your task is to secure your funds with a stop on the market or to fix profit by a floating stop or a fixed stop limit.
  10. Risk management — the basis of success in trading when trading with leverage (margin trading). It is usually recommended to go into a deal at 2% of the deposit with x leverage and stop from profit in the ratio of 1 to 5. What does this mean and why is this risk / profit sharing technique so important?It is necessary to clearly calculate probabilistic lumbago in order to avoid elimination. I recommend you not to rush into bets, but to take a sheet of paper and bargain virtually in order to understand whether your calculations were correct. A virtual game is worth nothing, but it will save you money and keep the deposit safe and sound.
  11. The wave theory assumes entry into the transaction after completion and a clear change in the previous trend based on signals and the news background, incl. experience of the current subject of trade — the operator pushing the buttons. For example, in the absence of price movement in the direction of the RSI indicator, analysis of all time frames with indicators, fibonacci levels, correction degree phase, time of day in time zones, stock and commodity market readings.
  12. It is important, before starting trading, test the presence of a manipulator on the market using the method of high rates. If you are looking for an entry into a major deal in a few weeks, keep in mind that a stop with a loss can be a significant amount in the money equivalent that you are ready to lose, and if the deal does not take place in your favor, you must set yourself up in advance for what it should be. Because a successful trader is not one who regularly guesses successful transactions, but one who successfully completes one out of five transactions according to risk management and the calculation of the leverage calculator in accordance with the chosen strategy.
  13. A lost position can be closed without waiting for the reverse restoration of the bidding process, thus manually participating in the balance adjustment or by setting a stop limit order in advance or after the bid in case of further decline or growth.
  14. There is an assumption that at the end of the working day, with a likely depreciation, traders convert stocks into fiat (money), which contributes to a depreciation, but this is not accurate)
  15. Incorrect entry into the transaction. How important is it to exit an unsuccessful transaction as early as possible or at the first rollback to change the direction of the trend or wait to determine a new entry point.
  16. The presence of two accounts on the exchange terminal is possibleand desirable in order to be able to remain in a winning position regardless of the success of the initially selected trading direction (a technique requiring careful verification by personal experience with a clear definition of the margin leverage and % of the entry into the transaction from the deposit balance to minimize the risk of loss).Successful trading does not consist in the ability to conclude as many successful trades as possible, but in minimizing losses.
  17. Technology is improving and strategies are changing. Before entering a transaction, it is necessary to carefully analyze the current market situation using a comparative analysis, studying the general news background (guided by the ***“buy for expectations — sell on the news”***postulate), detecting a flat (sideways), determining the level of instrument volatility (gold, oil, funds , bitcoins / cryptocurrencies — digital coins, etc.)
  18. Immediately put a stop — is a guarantee of success or a drain of the deposit? After all, how to cope with their own feelings and not get into anxiety about a successful or unsuccessful transaction? The gradual entry scheme works well.
  19. Coins. We look at the trading delta with the help of a robot scanner and make a decision based on all the above criteria in the course. It has been noticed that amateurs buy coins in the hope of growth. Remember, the market for altcoins is not growing now.
  20. A favorable time for earning is at the time of a flat, which usually occurs after the rising flag or the implementation of a bull pennant figure, etc. It will be more clear to observe the schedule in real mode and make the required notes in your own mind.
  21. On the cryptocurrency market, some laptop microprocessors are heated and the fan turns on at peak times. This indicates the beginning of a sharp movement and is a signal to enter the deal. Therefore, you can not only observe the behavior of the market, but now also listen (this is my personal note, it is unlikely that you will find such information somewhere else, as they say — an exclusive / VIP signal;)).
  22. You can still write a lot about time, how much can or should be spent on the monitor, on which timeframes to trade and which strategies to follow, but everyone should choose this independently and preferably, under the guidance of a specialist, because what is applicable to one is to the other — contraindicated.
In fact, any market situation should be beneficial for you due to successful risk management*!*For successful online trading, it is very important to use candlestick and technical analysis*, which help to more accurately determine the entry point to the transaction (purchase or sale).*You cannot act at random when the market is hard to predict and often ready to follow your footsteps.If you lose, then I do not recommend immediately going to recoup*, because trade should ultimately be break even. In ardor, you are likely to enter into an unsuccessful deal and lose even more than before. This situation will make you very sad, so do not make this mistake. She is famous.*Use a modern powerful laptop or desktop computer with a convenient side numeric keypad, a large screen and a convenient manipulator (mouse) so that when you press the buttons you have as little physical braking and stops as possible. Practice in advance to work in the browser on the exchange terminal without making a deposit on futures trading from the exchange wallet. This training practice will reduce your losses.
Hello from Ukraine, Kramatorsk city ( “War is peace / freedom is slavery [and] ignorance is strength.”)
Reslav Cryptotrader (if you need find me look around — me be i near ;).
To be continued…
http://twitter.com/reslav1
P.S.:
Nowadays, money strives to be counted more and more. Using the information technology of databases with indexes, it has become possible to automatically and instantly capture and display the information that was previously collected by entire departments of the state within a month and after manual entry was displayed on the screens of industrial monitors and public television. The era of the Internet has come, the time of the accessibility and decentralization of information.
Today we see stock chart quotes of stock prices of leading world companies online. Everyone has the opportunity to invest their money in these stocks and earn on the difference in exchange rates of their value. A speculative market was formed on this basis, where leaders appeared who were able to act most efficiently and, accordingly, earn money. Many specialists are studying the nature of success in speculative markets.
Many works on methods of achieving success in trading are morally obsolete due to the emergence of new technologies for calculating and controlling the money supply, for example, such as Bitcoin. After all, back in 2009 for 1309.03 BTC they gave 1 dollar. Today 1 BTC costs $ 9,000. This is due to the fact that since the appearance of bitcoin has never been hacked and the technology has shown its reliability and consistency, as a measure of the money invested in it. I will not go into the details and subtleties of Bitcoin technology, but I will note one thing — this is cryptographic software that was used in the banking sector as Swift payments, but transformed into a P2P peer-to-peer network of private computers, as a result, like Bittorent, it became public, hard controlled, commons. Bitcoin provides for a complexity bomb, which complicates each year, and therefore makes it more expensive, its limited production, and this is one of the main reasons for its rise in price. As well as the fact that Bitcoin is convenient for storing funds, as it is liquid and it can be easily sent without quantity restrictions and with high transaction (transfer) speed. All details about Bitcoin are available in open sources and you can find out everything about it on the Internet, as well as the alternative coin market (altcoins / coins), such as Ethereum, USDT (dollar tokens confirmed by a US company with real dollars in bank accounts) etc.
Around this market of bitcoin cryptocurrencies, the same speculative matrix (network / exchange) arose as around ordinary currencies and created such a strong competition for traditional assets that many governments adopted it and began to use and implement technologies that arose in their turn base. Cryptocurrencies or blockchain (cryptographic chain / blocks / chain) began to be introduced in public sectors of the economy for calculating and controlling public commons, such as electricity, land, etc.
Further, on the basis of this market, the need for regulation arose and the US authorities were very worried about the uncontrolled development of technology, on the basis of which a news background (negative or positive) arose, which powerfully affects cryptocurrency rates. In the era of information, this network began to act as a money pump, skillfully pumping money from the hands of inept speculators into the pockets of experienced traders.
As a result of reading a lot of books, watching various telecasts in the industry of bitcoin trading analytics, I came to the conclusion that successfully trading cryptocurrencies is akin to art and as statistics have shown, only 20% in 2–3 years are able to consistently earn money, and of which, in turn, only 2 -3% become billionaires.
I bring to your attention a technique by which you can enter the ranks of these 20% successful traders and possibly, jointly, open the door to those notorious 2–3% successful traders who are fortunate enough to touch the notorious golden fleece and discover the world of unlimited financial opportunities.
All knowledge is available in open sources and collected by me in the book “Basics of Bitcoin Trading from Reslav” (2019), most of them are available.
submitted by reslavr to u/reslavr [link] [comments]

If you hodl or trade, you`re the biggest problem with the world of cryptocurrencies.

There`s 3 components to a market economy: Spending, Savings & Investments. We only have 2 and those are way off balance.
Spending: Payments. Drives Inclusion & Adoption. Represents the primary bridge to real world assets.
Saving: Store of Value, Essential driver for stability. The ideea that your holdings are safe over time and don`t depreciate.
Investments: Trading, drives value of the economy, corrects inflation.
State of the nation:
IF there`s any chance at adoption, don`t just HODL. Don`t just DayTrade. Spend what you have. Money needs to move.
The moment you start spending a portion of cryptocurrencies, that money moves. The entire supply chain benefits. Miners Mine, Exchangers Exchange, Businesses get paid, Taxes get taxed. The underlying value of your holdings grows as you tell more people how you paid your AliBaba supplier in Bitcoin and didn`t have any trouble with your EU based bank making a fuss over "why you`re sending money to Asia".
If the only thing you do with Crypto is to buy it, hold it or trade it, it has no impact on real life. It`s not inviting more people to use it. Demand doesn`t grow. the value chain remains closed and non-inclusive. And it`s against the basic principles of Blockchain. You, the person who only has 10 USD in Dogecoin or the Hodler who has 8 bitcoins since Satoshi was in diapers, you`re responsible for the value of your assets and growth of your community. If you don`t SPEND it, people around you have NO reason to adopt. And if they do adopt, they do it for the wrong reasons and simply add to the volatility.
Introduction:
I`ve been in this space since 2009, reading all I could get my hands on. Coming from a poorly banked background and still having frustrations due to the inability of making online purchases at the time, just coming out of a recession, Bitcoin`s vision struck a nerve with me. I`ve been an avid believer in blockchain ever since and at no point did I buy crypto to store value, hedge my bets, invest, digital gold or any of this. I went in because it was, and still is: the easiest way to send money across the world. Ethereum`s smart contracts bring this simple function to a new level, introducing conditions to be met for the transfer itself. Simple, open, transparent, inclusive. Period.
What we`ve become, as a community:
As a whole, this community went from a group of passionate people who wanted an alternative to banks, government and politics, people who wanted to deal directly with other people, to something weird I can`t describe as a whole, but more as personas. Here`s what I`m seeing:
  1. The "I wanna buy Pizza with Bitcoin" crowd. I`m one of them. We just wanted a simple alternative, we were okay with volatility because we always knew the more people use it, more stable it gets as an alternative currency. Conspiracy theorists, tech geeks, scientists, curious people fascinated by the endless possibilities of a global, open banking system, built by the people, for the people. Joined from the first 3-4 years of Bitcoin, many still join it.
  2. The Hodlers: Also coined as the true "Believers". They`re responsible for the initial traction, and would rather liquidate their house than to "sell off" their Bitcoins. They see Bitcoin and other currencies as a "store of value" and see not much difference between buying/storing Gold and Crypto. Joined after the first group and peacefully co-existed with everybody so far. Most dedicated miners came from this group/generation of adopters.
  3. The Traders: People coming from the finance world. They either did Hedgefunds, Forex, VC. Smart opportunists that saw the first 2 groups, saw the potential value of the system as something to be gained from (nothing wrong with this) and heavily capitalize on it. These were the first guys to look at crypto as financial instruments and started fighting the compliance game. This is also where market manipulation started.
  4. The "Tokenize the world" generation. Driven by technology on one side, by the ICO madness on the other side, this opportunistic group wanted to create a token (and respective ICOs) for everything they could think of. Huge similarities between how everything needed a website in the 2000`s, everything needed an app in 2010, everything needed a coin/token started around 2016. Dogecoin is the perfect example of a joke that got way out of proportion, while the original ideea was to make fun of this particular group. Oh well, this group still garners a lot of traction/interest. This group is why we have 3000 shitcoins and who knows how many that never saw the light of day.
  5. The Consultants, Gurus, Ninjas. The "know it all`s". They`re all about the TREND, not about the substance. In the 90`s we had the "internet consultants" who were selling strategies for people to get online. Later the same people were selling strategies to get website traffic. Later, it was about the apps or about the cloud. Right now, it`s about blockchain, token economics, go to market, liquidity, or investing. Some are super smart, most are useless. The only thing that really bothers me is that consultants take no ownership in the success or failure of what they`re selling. As long as you cover their fees, they don`t care if their advice works or not and usually blame you for failing. These are the "market makers" of today, the youtube/facebook/twitteinstagram investment gurus who look at charts for 4 hours and make predictions without really having any skin in the game. Here`s what I never got my head around, if you know how to make a market for a coin, or really know how to invest in crypto.... WHY would you charge me 20k when you can make millions for yourself in less time than that? I guess it holds true: those that can, DO, those that can`t, Teach.
This brings us to the state of the market today.
Proposed solution:
Don`t wait for your government to regulate, don`t wait for banks or institutional investors to kick in, don`t wait for the media frenzy. Just do your part: spend, save and invest your crypto just as you would your USD/Euro/Yen/etc. If you`re a freelancer, accept crypto payments. if you run a business, accept crypto payments. If you have crypto, make crypto payments. This is the main reason we have crypto today and it`s exactly what we don`t use it for. Go back to basics and let`s see how influenced by "market volatility" or "market manipulation" or "media bias" the price will get.
Disclosure: Yes, trying to solve the adoption issue has led me to build a platform for e-commerce that also solves crypto-to-fiat payments for more than 2000 tokens. We walk the walk, not talk the talk.
I`d love to hear if you guys agree or disagree, and most importantly, Why?
C:\>
P.S. I love you
submitted by chrisorasanusdk to Flexacoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Market Cycle: Headed Towards Point of Maximum Financial Opportunity

Author: CoinLive News Team Jun 18, 2018 at 12:47
(Click the link to visualize the article from the original source)
There are many venues one can venture when it comes to analyzing the state of affairs in a particular market. However, from a psychological perspective, it is human nature to see repetitive patterns play out over and over. In this article, we want to bring to the readers' attention the psychology behind a market cycle, how it tends to trick one's emotions, and what stage the crypto space might be at.

Understanding the Psychology of a Market Cycle

Credit goes to Karen Bennett, writer at cheatsheet.com, whose chart (below) on the psychology of a market cycle has become an absolute classic to explain the different emotional phases of any volatile market. The chart illustrates the type of feelings and sentiment traders and investors alike experience as the price fluctuates. These inevitable human emotions, coupled with market fundamentals, help to explain the price dynamics and what we should expect based on the type of emotional phase we project to be in.
In this article, we will attempt to draw some parallels between the chart of Bitcoin and the psychological cycles investors go through as described by Karen Bennett. Let's, first of all, explore the chart below and extract a few insights out of it. It is of cardinal importance to always be reminded that markets go through periods of expansion and contraction, which describes the times where the market alternates between trending in a defined direction and moving sideways. This phenomenon can be extrapolated to multiple facets of our lives (thermal, matter, solid, liquids...).
It is during the periods of most contraction that the majority of the market crowd will leave by selling their holding (weak-handed players) to those that are interested in buying to accumulate at what is perceived as attractive prices. The contraction of the market partly occurs due to the compressive effect of those strong-handed players absorbing selling orders.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1000/content_psychology_cycles.png)

Applying Market Cycle Psychology to Bitcoin & Market Cap

By comparing the psychology of market moves and its emotions to the rollercoaster seen in Bitcoin ever since its peak from its irrationally exuberant rally from Dec-Jan, we have taken the initiative to draw what we believe could be some common parallels that may provide some extra insights about the potential market phase we might be at, as perceived by market participants. In our opinion, a period of depression, which leads up to disbelief might be the most accurate terrain we find ourselves at this moment in time, especially after the harsh sell-off resumption seen ever since mid-May.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1003/content_btc01.png)
We can best define this period as the one that sees a consistent loss of hope, with investors no longer expecting a significant upward correction in the near future that may get them out of the deep hole they find themselves in. A significant portion of market participants give up on the idea that their capital has been wisely invested. We seem to have entered a phase where investors aim to save whatever funds left in desperation even if they realize that cutting the losses for whatever capital is left will still represent a major setback.
This phase leads to a potential paradigm shift in their belief about the underlying fundamentals that they first considered so disruptive, or they simply come to the realization that the only reason they invested was out of an adrenaline-led hype vs a proper understanding of the technology and its revolutionary consequences to advance society as we know it. This loss in the overall interest keeps prices at depressed levels, which tends to coincide, at times, with the lowest point in the current cycle.
Stable prices in a compressed range tend to follow, in what might be an arduous and torturous stage lasting quite some time before a new bullish trend re-emerges. Note how the ATR has been consistently compressing since the peak, which suggests we are gradually heading towards the compression phase and point of maximum financial opportunity.

Keep in Mind Return to the 'Mean'

Another critical component to understand is the term "return to the mean". Given that the price of Bitcoin is now way below the most widely followed moving averages (5, 100, 200-Daily Moving Average), one could apply the usefulness of drawing trending lines to estimate where the fair value or mean may be located. Note, different interpretations (lines drawn) should be considered.
By connecting the most number of highs /lows from various price sequences, we come up with at least 3 different trendlines that serve as an estimate to calculate where the market may perceive the mean or fair value of Bitcoin. No one can really tell whether the first green box is the one the market is paying most attention to (follow volumes for valuable tips). However, this exercise helps us determine, from a market cycle/mean reversion standpoint, that the range between $6.5k and $3k appears to be an area where a period of accumulation (perception of value) will most likely occur.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1005/content_btc02.png)
Mean reversion is extremely critical. Over a short span, the markets can behave in such an erratic manner, and anything can happen, however, when we scan the market conditions as part of an extended period of time, which may go from months to years - that's when statistics and certain patterns tend to more accurately play out, with 2 plus 2 more often than not equal 4. Performance that is well above average eventually reverts back to an equilibrium point as it no longer can defy gravity, while performance that is well below average has a tendency to improve.
At CoinLive we are always open for interpretations that can be logically explained and have a mathematical backing. We have been long endorsing the approach taken by the user of BitcoinTalk that goes by the name Trolololo and its logarithmic non-linear mean regression chart. According to the chart below, we might be closer to the upper edge of the $6.5k-$3k range, although as usual, a caveat applies. In the past, the price of Bitcoin has had a tendency to spend significant periods of time in an undervalued area below the mean reversion (red line).
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1006/content_btc03.png)
The formula%2Fweeks)+-+8.81809) that utilizes can also be applied to the total crypto market capitalization (currently at $270b), which can be found below:
![103.23720 log((weeks since Friday, January 9, 2009/week) - 8.81809)](http://www4d.wolframalpha.com/Calculate/MSP/MSP131ei58i8420g3f1eh00005h2a3221h21b15i6?MSPStoreType=image/gif&s=37) = ![1.78×1011](http://www4d.wolframalpha.com/Calculate/MSP/MSP171ei58i8420g3f1eh00002icb526a8ff605ie?MSPStoreType=image/gif&s=37)
Twitter user @TommyWorldPower, a crypto influencer and Creator of @energicrypto, notes: "My observations of the market is that current fair value of market: $175B. Current growth rate ~150%/yr (decaying at 20%/yr, so next year would be ~120% growth). Thus, though we are overvalued now, we would reach fair market value in about 8 months at current valuation. I'm hodling."

What Can We Learn from the Analysis?

Some of the main takeaways from this analysis include:
submitted by Ivo333 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

US Economic Warfare and Likely Foreign Defenses – by Michael Hudson • 23 July 2019

https://outline.com/VM2DEM • 5,400 Words •
Today’s world is at war on many fronts. The rules of international law and order put in place toward the end of World War II are being broken by U.S. foreign policy escalating its confrontation with countries that refrain from giving its companies control of their economic surpluses. Countries that do not give the United States control of their oil and financial sectors or privatize their key sectors are being isolated by the United States imposing trade sanctions and unilateral tariffs giving special advantages to U.S. producers in violation of free trade agreements with European, Asian and other countries.
This global fracture has an increasingly military cast. U.S. officials justify tariffs and import quotas illegal under WTO rules on “national security” grounds, claiming that the United States can do whatever it wants as the world’s “exceptional” nation. U.S. officials explain that this means that their nation is not obliged to adhere to international agreements or even to its own treaties and promises. This allegedly sovereign right to ignore on its international agreements was made explicit after Bill Clinton and his Secretary of State Madeline Albright broke the promise by President George Bush and Secretary of State James Baker that NATO would not expand eastward after 1991. (“You didn’t get it in writing,” was the U.S. response to the verbal agreements that were made.)
Likewise, the Trump administration repudiated the multilateral Iranian nuclear agreement signed by the Obama administration, and is escalating warfare with its proxy armies in the Near East. U.S. politicians are waging a New Cold War against Russia, China, Iran, and oil-exporting countries that the United States is seeking to isolate if cannot control their governments, central bank and foreign diplomacy.
The international framework that originally seemed equitable was pro-U.S. from the outset. In 1945 this was seen as a natural result of the fact that the U.S. economy was the least war-damaged and held by far most of the world’s monetary gold. Still, the postwar trade and financial framework was ostensibly set up on fair and equitable international principles. Other countries were expected to recover and grow, creating diplomatic, financial and trade parity with each other.
But the past decade has seen U.S. diplomacy become one-sided in turning the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, SWIFT bank-clearing system and world trade into an asymmetrically exploitative system. This unilateral U.S.-centered array of institutions is coming to be widely seen not only as unfair, but as blocking the progress of other countries whose growth and prosperity is seen by U.S. foreign policy as a threat to unilateral U.S. hegemony. What began as an ostensibly international order to promote peaceful prosperity has turned increasingly into an extension of U.S. nationalism, predatory rent-extraction and a more dangerous military confrontation.
Deterioration of international diplomacy into a more nakedly explicit pro-U.S. financial, trade and military aggression was implicit in the way in which economic diplomacy was shaped when the United Nations, IMF and World Bank were shaped mainly by U.S. economic strategists. Their economic belligerence is driving countries to withdraw from the global financial and trade order that has been turned into a New Cold War vehicle to impose unilateral U.S. hegemony. Nationalistic reactions are consolidating into new economic and political alliances from Europe to Asia.
We are still mired in the Oil War that escalated in 2003 with the invasion of Iraq, which quickly spread to Libya and Syria. American foreign policy has long been based largely on control of oil. This has led the United States to oppose the Paris accords to stem global warming. Its aim is to give U.S. officials the power to impose energy sanctions forcing other countries to “freeze in the dark” if they do not follow U.S. leadership.
To expand its oil monopoly, America is pressuring Europe to oppose the Nordstream II gas pipeline from Russia, claiming that this would make Germany and other countries dependent on Russia instead of on U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG). Likewise, American oil diplomacy has imposed unilateral sanctions against Iranian oil exports, until such time as a regime change opens up that country’s oil reserves to U.S., French, British and other allied oil majors.
U.S. control of dollarized money and credit is critical to this hegemony. As Congressman Brad Sherman of Los Angeles told a House Financial Services Committee hearing on May 9, 2019: “An awful lot of our international power comes from the fact that the U.S. dollar is the standard unit of international finance and transactions. Clearing through the New York Fed is critical for major oil and other transactions. It is the announced purpose of the supporters of cryptocurrency to take that power away from us, to put us in a position where the most significant sanctions we have against Iran, for example, would become irrelevant.”[1]
The U.S. aim is to keep the dollar as the transactions currency for world trade, savings, central bank reserves and international lending. This monopoly status enables the U.S. Treasury and State Department to disrupt the financial payments system and trade for countries with which the United States is at economic or outright military war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin quickly responded by describing how “the degeneration of the universalist globalization model [is] turning into a parody, a caricature of itself, where common international rules are replaced with the laws… of one country.”[2] That is the trajectory on which this deterioration of formerly open international trade and finance is now moving. It has been building up for a decade. On June 5, 2009, then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev cited this same disruptive U.S. dynamic at work in the wake of the U.S. junk mortgage and bank fraud crisis.
Those whose job it was to forecast events … were not ready for the depth of the crisis and turned out to be too rigid, unwieldy and slow in their response. The international financial organisations – and I think we need to state this up front and not try to hide it – were not up to their responsibilities, as has been said quite unambiguously at a number of major international events such as the two recent G20 summits of the world’s largest economies.
Furthermore, we have had confirmation that our pre-crisis analysis of global economic trends and the global economic system were correct. The artificially maintained uni-polar system and preservation of monopolies in key global economic sectors are root causes of the crisis. One big centre of consumption, financed by a growing deficit, and thus growing debts, one formerly strong reserve currency, and one dominant system of assessing assets and risks – these are all factors that led to an overall drop in the quality of regulation and the economic justification of assessments made, including assessments of macroeconomic policy. As a result, there was no avoiding a global crisis.[3]
That crisis is what is now causing today’s break in global trade and payments.
Warfare on many fronts, with Dollarization being the main arena
Dissolution of the Soviet Union 1991 did not bring the disarmament that was widely expected. U.S. leadership celebrated the Soviet demise as signaling the end of foreign opposition to U.S.-sponsored neoliberalism and even as the End of History. NATO expanded to encircle Russia and sponsored “color revolutions” from Georgia to Ukraine, while carving up former Yugoslavia into small statelets. American diplomacy created a foreign legion of Wahabi fundamentalists from Afghanistan to Iran, Iraq, Syria and Libya in support of Saudi Arabian extremism and Israeli expansionism.
The United States is waging war for control of oil against Venezuela, where a military coup failed a few years ago, as did the 2018-19 stunt to recognize an unelected pro-American puppet regime. The Honduran coup under President Obama was more successful in overthrowing an elected president advocating land reform, continuing the tradition dating back to 1954 when the CIA overthrew Guatemala’s Arbenz regime.
U.S. officials bear a special hatred for countries that they have injured, ranging from Guatemala in 1954 to Iran, whose regime it overthrew to install the Shah as military dictator. Claiming to promote “democracy,” U.S. diplomacy has redefined the word to mean pro-American, and opposing land reform, national ownership of raw materials and public subsidy of foreign agriculture or industry as an “undemocratic” attack on “free markets,” meaning markets controlled by U.S. financial interests and absentee owners of land, natural resources and banks.
A major byproduct of warfare has always been refugees, and today’s wave fleeing ISIS, Al Qaeda and other U.S.-backed Near Eastern proxies is flooding Europe. A similar wave is fleeing the dictatorial regimes backed by the United States from Honduras, Ecuador, Colombia and neighboring countries. The refugee crisis has become a major factor leading to the resurgence of nationalist parties throughout Europe and for the white nationalism of Donald Trump in the United States.
Dollarization as the vehicle for U.S. nationalism
The Dollar Standard – U.S. Treasury debt to foreigners held by the world’s central banks – has replaced the gold-exchange standard for the world’s central bank reserves to settle payments imbalances among themselves. This has enabled the United States to uniquely run balance-of-payments deficits for nearly seventy years, despite the fact that these Treasury IOUs have little visible likelihood of being repaid except under arrangements where U.S. rent-seeking and outright financial tribute from other enables it to liquidate its official foreign debt.
The United States is the only nation that can run sustained balance-of-payments deficits without having to sell off its assets or raise interest rates to borrow foreign money. No other national economy in the world can could afford foreign military expenditures on any major scale without losing its exchange value. Without the Treasury-bill standard, the United States would be in this same position along with other nations. That is why Russia, China and other powers that U.S. strategists deem to be strategic rivals and enemies are looking to restore gold’s role as the preferred asset to settle payments imbalances.
The U.S. response is to impose regime change on countries that prefer gold or other foreign currencies to dollars for their exchange reserves. A case in point is the overthrow of Libya’s Omar Kaddafi after he sought to base his nation’s international reserves on gold. His liquidation stands as a military warning to other countries.
Thanks to the fact that payments-surplus economies invest their dollar inflows in U.S. Treasury bonds, the U.S. balance-of-payments deficit finances its domestic budget deficit. This foreign central-bank recycling of U.S. overseas military spending into purchases of U.S. Treasury securities gives the United States a free ride, financing its budget – also mainly military in character – so that it can taxing its own citizens.
Trump is forcing other countries to create an alternative to the Dollar Standard
The fact that Donald Trump’s economic policies are proving ineffective in restoring American manufacturing is creating rising nationalist pressure to exploit foreigners by arbitrary tariffs without regard for international law, and to impose trade sanctions and diplomatic meddling to disrupt regimes that pursue policies that U.S. diplomats do not like.
There is a parallel here with Rome in the late 1st century BC. It stripped its provinces to pay for its military deficit, the grain dole and land redistribution at the expense of Italian cities and Asia Minor. This created foreign opposition to drive Rome out. The U.S. economy is similar to Rome’s: extractive rather than productive, based mainly on land rents and money-interest. As the domestic market is impoverished, U.S. politicians are seeking to take from abroad what no longer is being produced at home.
What is so ironic – and so self-defeating of America’s free global ride – is that Trump’s simplistic aim of lowering the dollar’s exchange rate to make U.S. exports more price-competitive. He imagines commodity trade to be the entire balance of payments, as if there were no military spending, not to mention lending and investment. To lower the dollar’s exchange rate, he is demanding that China’s central bank and those of other countries stop supporting the dollar by recycling the dollars they receive for their exports into holdings of U.S. Treasury securities.
This tunnel vision leaves out of account the fact that the trade balance is not simply a matter of comparative international price levels. The United States has dissipated its supply of spare manufacturing capacity and local suppliers of parts and materials, while much of its industrial engineering and skilled manufacturing labor has retired. An immense shortfall must be filled by new capital investment, education and public infrastructure, whose charges are far above those of other economics.
Trump’s infrastructure ideology is a Public-Private Partnership characterized by high-cost financialization demanding high monopoly rents to cover its interest charges, stock dividends and management fees. This neoliberal policy raises the cost of living for the U.S. labor force, making it uncompetitive. The United States is unable to produce more at any price right now, because its has spent the past half-century dismantling its infrastructure, closing down its part suppliers and outsourcing its industrial technology.
The United States has privatized and financialized infrastructure and basic needs such as public health and medical care, education and transportation that other countries have kept in their public domain to make their economies more cost-efficient by providing essential services at subsidized prices or freely. The United States also has led the practice of debt pyramiding, from housing to corporate finance. This financial engineering and wealth creation by inflating debt-financed real estate and stock market bubbles has made the United States a high-cost economy that cannot compete successfully with well-managed mixed economies.
Unable to recover dominance in manufacturing, the United States is concentrating on rent-extracting sectors that it hopes monopolize, headed by information technology and military production. On the industrial front, it threatens to disrupt China and other mixed economies by imposing trade and financial sanctions.
The great gamble is whether these other countries will defend themselves by joining in alliances enabling them to bypass the U.S. economy. American strategists imagine their country to be the world’s essential economy, without whose market other countries must suffer depression. The Trump Administration thinks that There Is No Alternative (TINA) for other countries except for their own financial systems to rely on U.S. dollar credit.
To protect themselves from U.S. sanctions, countries would have to avoid using the dollar, and hence U.S. banks. This would require creation of a non-dollarized financial system for use among themselves, including their own alternative to the SWIFT bank clearing system. Table 1 lists some possible related defenses against U.S. nationalistic diplomacy.
As noted above, what also is ironic in President Trump’s accusation of China and other countries of artificially manipulating their exchange rate against the dollar (by recycling their trade and payments surpluses into Treasury securities to hold down their currency’s dollar valuation) involves dismantling the Treasury-bill standard. The main way that foreign economies have stabilized their exchange rate since 1971 has indeed been to recycle their dollar inflows into U.S. Treasury securities. Letting their currency’s value rise would threaten their export competitiveness against their rivals, although not necessarily benefit the United States.
Ending this practice leaves countries with the main way to protect their currencies from rising against the dollar is to reduce dollar inflows by blocking U.S. lending to domestic borrowers. They may levy floating tariffs proportioned to the dollar’s declining value. The U.S. has a long history since the 1920s of raising its tariffs against currencies that are depreciating: the American Selling Price (ASP) system. Other countries can impose their own floating tariffs against U.S. goods.
Trade dependency as an aim of the World Bank, IMF and US AID
The world today faces a problem much like what it faced on the eve of World War II. Like Germany then, the United States now poses the main threat of war, and equally destructive neoliberal economic regimes imposing austerity, economic shrinkage and depopulation. U.S. diplomats are threatening to destroy regimes and entire economies that seek to remain independent of this system, by trade and financial sanctions backed by direct military force.
Dedollarization will require creation of multilateral alternatives to U.S. “front” institutions such as the World Bank, IMF and other agencies in which the United States holds veto power to block any alternative policies deemed not to let it “win.” U.S. trade policy through the World Bank and U.S. foreign aid agencies aims at promoting dependency on U.S. food exports and other key commodities, while hiring U.S. engineering firms to build up export infrastructure to subsidize U.S. and other natural-resource investors.[4] The financing is mainly in dollars, providing risk-free bonds to U.S. and other financial institutions. The resulting commercial and financial “interdependency” has led to a situation in which a sudden interruption of supply would disrupt foreign economies by causing a breakdown in their chain of payments and production. The effect is to lock client countries into dependency on the U.S. economy and its diplomacy, euphemized as “promoting growth and development.”
U.S. neoliberal policy via the IMF imposes austerity and opposes debt writedowns. Its economic model pretends that debtor countries can pay any volume of dollar debt simply by reducing wages to squeeze more income out of the labor force to pay foreign creditors. This ignores the fact that solving the domestic “budget problem” by taxing local revenue still faces the “transfer problem” of converting it into dollars or other hard currencies in which most international debt is denominated. The result is that the IMF’s “stabilization” programs actually destabilize and impoverish countries forced into following its advice.
IMF loans support pro-U.S. regimes such as Ukraine, and subsidize capital flight by supporting local currencies long enough to enable U.S. client oligarchies to flee their currencies at a pre-devaluation exchange rate for the dollar. When the local currency finally is allowed to collapse, debtor countries are advised to impose anti-labor austerity. This globalizes the class war of capital against labor while keeping debtor countries on a short U.S. financial leash.
U.S. diplomacy is capped by trade sanctions to disrupt economies that break away from U.S. aims. Sanctions are a form of economic sabotage, as lethal as outright military warfare in establishing U.S. control over foreign economies. The threat is to impoverish civilian populations, in the belief that this will lead them to replace their governments with pro-American regimes promising to restore prosperity by selling off their domestic infrastructure to U.S. and other multinational investors.
chart hudson
There are alternatives, on many fronts
Militarily, today’s leading alternative to NATO expansionism is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), along with Europe following France’s example under Charles de Gaulle and withdrawing. After all, there is no real threat of military invasion today in Europe. No nation can occupy another without an enormous military draft and such heavy personnel losses that domestic protests would unseat the government waging such a war. The U.S. anti-war movement in the 1960s signaled the end of the military draft, not only in the United States but in nearly all democratic countries. (Israel, Switzerland, Brazil and North Korea are exceptions.)
The enormous spending on armaments for a kind of war unlikely to be fought is not really military, but simply to provide profits to the military industrial complex. The arms are not really to be used. They are simply to be bought, and ultimately scrapped. The danger, of course, is that these not-for-use arms actually might be used, if only to create a need for new profitable production.
Likewise, foreign holdings of dollars are not really to be spent on purchases of U.S. exports or investments. They are like fine-wine collectibles, for saving rather than for drinking. The alternative to such dollarized holdings is to create a mutual use of national currencies, and a domestic bank-clearing payments system as an alternative to SWIFT. Russia, China, Iran and Venezuela already are said to be developing a crypto-currency payments to circumvent U.S. sanctions and hence financial control.
In the World Trade Organization, the United States has tried to claim that any industry receiving public infrastructure or credit subsidy deserves tariff retaliation in order to force privatization. In response to WTO rulings that U.S. tariffs are illegally imposed, the United States “has blocked all new appointments to the seven-member appellate body in protest, leaving it in danger of collapse because it may not have enough judges to allow it to hear new cases.”[5] In the U.S. view, only privatized trade financed by private rather than public banks is “fair” trade.
An alternative to the WTO (or removal of its veto privilege given to the U.S. bloc) is needed to cope with U.S. neoliberal ideology and, most recently, the U.S. travesty claiming “national security” exemption to free-trade treaties, impose tariffs on steel, aluminum, and on European countries that circumvent sanctions on Iran or threaten to buy oil from Russia via the Nordstream II pipeline instead of high-cost liquified “freedom gas” from the United States.
In the realm of development lending, China’s bank along with its Belt and Road initiative is an incipient alternative to the World Bank, whose main role has been to promote foreign dependency on U.S. suppliers. The IMF for its part now functions as an extension of the U.S. Department of Defense to subsidize client regimes such as Ukraine while financially isolating countries not subservient to U.S. diplomacy.
To save debt-strapped economies suffering Greek-style austerity, the world needs to replace neoliberal economic theory with an analytic logic for debt writedowns based on the ability to pay. The guiding principle of the needed development-oriented logic of international law should be that no nation should be obliged to pay foreign creditors by having to sell of the public domain and rent-extraction rights to foreign creditors. The defining character of nationhood should be the fiscal right to tax natural resource rents and financial returns, and to create its own monetary system.
The United States refuses to join the International Criminal Court. To be effective, it needs enforcement power for its judgments and penalties, capped by the ability to bring charges of war crimes in the tradition of the Nuremberg tribunal. U.S. to such a court, combined with its military buildup now threatening World War III, suggests a new alignment of countries akin to the Non-Aligned Nations movement of the 1950s and 1960s. Non-aligned in this case means freedom from U.S. diplomatic control or threats.
Such institutions require a more realistic economic theory and philosophy of operations to replace the neoliberal logic for anti-government privatization, anti-labor austerity, and opposition to domestic budget deficits and debt writedowns. Today’s neoliberal doctrine counts financial late fees and rising housing prices as adding to “real output” (GDP), but deems public investment as deadweight spending, not a contribution to output. The aim of such logic is to convince governments to pay their foreign creditors by selling off their public infrastructure and other assets in the public domain.
Just as the “capacity to pay” principle was the foundation stone of the Bank for International Settlements in 1931, a similar basis is needed to measure today’s ability to pay debts and hence to write down bad loans that have been made without a corresponding ability of debtors to pay. Without such an institution and body of analysis, the IMF’s neoliberal principle of imposing economic depression and falling living standards to pay U.S. and other foreign creditors will impose global poverty.
The above proposals provide an alternative to the U.S. “exceptionalist” refusal to join any international organization that has a say over its affairs. Other countries must be willing to turn the tables and isolate U.S. banks, U.S. exporters, and to avoid using U.S. dollars and routing payments via U.S. banks. To protect their ability to create a countervailing power requires an international court and its sponsoring organization.
Summary
The first existential objective is to avoid the current threat of war by winding down U.S. military interference in foreign countries and removing U.S. military bases as relics of neocolonialism. Their danger to world peace and prosperity threatens a reversion to the pre-World War II colonialism, ruling by client elites along lines similar to the 2014 Ukrainian coup by neo-Nazi groups sponsored by the U.S. State Department and National Endowment for Democracy. Such control recalls the dictators that U.S. diplomacy established throughout Latin America in the 1950s. Today’s ethnic terrorism by U.S.-sponsored Wahabi-Saudi Islam recalls the behavior of Nazi Germany in the 1940s.
Global warming is the second major existentialist threat. Blocking attempts to reverse it is a bedrock of American foreign policy, because it is based on control of oil. So the military, refugee and global warming threats are interconnected.
The U.S. military poses the greatest immediate danger. Today’s warfare is fundamentally changed from what it used to be. Prior to the 1970s, nations conquering others had to invade and occupy them with armies recruited by a military draft. But no democracy in today’s world can revive such a draft without triggering widespread refusal to fight, voting the government out of power. The only way the United States – or other countries – can fight other nations is to bomb them. And as noted above, economic sanctions have as destructive an effect on civilian populations in countries deemed to be U.S. adversaries as overt warfare. The United States can sponsor political coups (as in Honduras and Pinochet’s Chile), but cannot occupy. It is unwilling to rebuild, to say nothing of taking responsibility for the waves of refugees that our bombing and sanctions are causing from Latin America to the Near East.
U.S. ideologues view their nation’s coercive military expansion and political subversion and neoliberal economic policy of privatization and financialization as an irreversible victory signaling the End of History. To the rest of the world it is a threat to human survival.
The American promise is that the victory of neoliberalism is the End of History, offering prosperity to the entire world. But beneath the rhetoric of free choice and free markets is the reality of corruption, subversion, coercion, debt peonage and neofeudalism. The reality is the creation and subsidy of polarized economies bifurcated between a privileged rentier class and its clients, their debtors and renters. America is to be permitted to monopolize trade in oil and food grains, and high-technology rent-yielding monopolies, living off its dependent customers. Unlike medieval serfdom, people subject to this End of History scenario can choose to live wherever they want. But wherever they live, they must take on a lifetime of debt to obtain access to a home of their own, and rely on U.S.-sponsored control of their basic needs, money and credit by adhering to U.S. financial planning of their economies. This dystopian scenario confirms Rosa Luxemburg’s recognition that the ultimate choice facing nations in today’s world is between socialism and barbarism.
Keynote Paper delivered at the 14th Forum of the World Association for Political Economy, July 21, 2019.
Notes
[1] Billy Bambrough, “Bitcoin Threatens To ‘Take Power’ From The U.S. Federal Reserve,” Forbes, May 15, 2019. https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2019/05/15/a-u-s-congressman-is-so-scared-of-bitcoin-and-crypto-he-wants-it-banned/#36b2700b6405.
[2] Vladimir Putin, keynote address to the Economic Forum, June 5-6 2019. Putin went on to warn of “a policy of completely unlimited economic egoism and a forced breakdown.” This fragmenting of the global economic space “is the road to endless conflict, trade wars and maybe not just trade wars. Figuratively, this is the road to the ultimate fight of all against all.”
[3] Address to St Petersburg International Economic Forum’s Plenary Session, St Petersburg, Kremlin.ru, June 5, 2009, from Johnson’s Russia List, June 8, 2009, #8,
[4] https://www.rt.com/business/464013-china-russia-cryptocurrency-dollar-dethrone/ . Already in the late 1950s the Forgash Plan proposed a World Bank for Economic Acceleration. Designed by Terence McCarthy and sponsored by Florida Senator Morris Forgash, the bank would have been a more truly development-oriented institution to guide foreign development to create balanced economies self-sufficient in food and other essentials. The proposal was opposed by U.S. interests on the ground that countries pursuing land reform tended to be anti-American. More to the point, they would have avoided trade and financial dependency on U.S. suppliers and banks, and hence on U.S. trade and financial sanctions to prevent them from following policies at odds with U.S. diplomatic demands.
[5] Don Weinland, “WTO rules against US in tariff dispute with China,” Financial Times, July 17, 2019.
https://xenagoguevicene.wordpress.com/2019/07/29/u-s-economic-warfare-and-likely-foreign-defenses-by-michael-hudson-%e2%80%a2-23-july-2019/
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Bitcoin price history 2012-2017 Bitcoin Price History Timeline تعدين البتكوين بدون جهد BITCOIN price evolution REPLAY (2011-2019) Historical Price of Bitcoin (2010 - 2019)

The Bitcoin blockchain has been in existence since 2009, but overall, Bitcoin’s first exchanges on marketplaces date back to 2010. At the time, a Bitcoin was only worth a few cents! One exchange that remains known in the cryptocurrency ecosystem is the purchase of two pizzas in May 2010 by a web developer for 10,000 bitcoins. Launched in 2009, the price of one bitcoin remained a few dollars for its first few years. The price reached a peak of nearly $20,000 per bitcoin in late-2017 and has since fluctuated quite a bit Use Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Send real money quickly to anywhere in the world, basically for free. Learn More Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency to successfully record transactions on a secure, decentralized blockchain-based network. Launched in early 2009 by its pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto Bitcoin Price (BTC). Price chart, trade volume, market cap, and more. Discover new cryptocurrencies to add to your portfolio.

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Bitcoin price history 2012-2017

Here is Bitcoin's price history since 2009! Here is Bitcoin's price history since 2009! Skip navigation Sign in. ... Bitcoin Price Prediction by Experts (Long Term) - Duration: 10:43. A video on the future price of Bitcoin, and prediction of the value of cryptocurrency technology at large. I've included my favorite model, illustrating a decaying (but consistently averaging ... bitcoin price analysis, bitcoin price prediction, bitcoin news, why you should beware of this bitcoin pattern on the charts, bitcoin price, how to trade bitcoin, bitcoin analysis today, bitcoin ... Bitcoin Pizza: The history of the first pizza paid with Bitcoin equaling $100 million in 2019 - Duration: 2:56. Action News Jax (CBS47 & FOX30) 10,412 views 2:56 Bitcoin/USD historic price data from 2012 to 2017 on Bitstamp. Charted with tradingview.