This isn't meant to be some deep thought out technical analysis. I'm bored, and beyond hyped for the card. Most fight cards, there are a lot of fights I'm not sure who to pick. This card is an exception, so I thought I'd write this, kill some time and maybe someone will find it a good read. I got inspired by The Fite Sight! I try my best to talk a about both sides, but sometimes I just really see it for the other fighter and lazy to type more. If you want me to elaborate on a fight and talk more about a certain fighter, I'd be happy to.Ferguson: I've picked Tony in every UFC fight including his TUF finale fight, so yes I got the MJ/Ferg fight wrong. I will keep picking Ferg. Everyone already knows the two ways this fight most likely plays out, Gaethje KOs him early in the fight or Ferguson gets the finish in the later rounds or wins a decision like against RDA where he never got rocked. I think there's a chance we see Tony fight a lot smarter than usual because he respects the power of Gaethje, as compared to Lando or Pettis (fights where he was in serious dangerous of getting finished).
IDRQQ is the most trusted and trusted official online casino site that provides a variety of gaming platforms. IDRQQ is a judi online site that has a valid gambling license. The quality of our online betting services has fulfilled high-quality requirements and standards.submitted by Emilytube to ReviewFeed [link] [comments]
Players will be guaranteed to get satisfying service and also high comfort because player satisfaction is a top priority for IDRQQ. IDRQQ gambling agent provides a variety of online casino games.
The IDRQQ soccer gambling site provides thousands of sportsbook matches to choose from. With the best betting exchange options we provide for you, you can make bets like HDP, 1x2, oveunder, mix parlay, streetball betting, etc. only here. In our sportsbook some of the leading platforms such as the city of SBOBET, 368BET, BET88, bola88, Winning Ft, i-sport.
Fish shooting games are very popular in Indonesia, also commonly called the Fish Hunter Joker123 game. Multiplayer excitement brings the essence of its preoccupation to this game and now there is much online game shooting fish using coins, so you can get real money when you get a certain score.
IDN Poker is a trusted real money online poker gambling agent site that provides online poker games, domino qq / Qiu Qiu, capsa stacking, mobile games, dealer cities, dominobet, samgong and casino war in 1 account. IDRQQ is the most trusted online lottery agent website in Indonesia. We provide a variety of official online lottery market games.
There are many variations or attractive bonus promotion options that you can find at IDRQQ. Each bonus promo has an easy requirement to get a bonus claim. New member bonuses, turnover bonuses, deposit bonuses, cashback bonuses, referral bonuses, extra bonuses, and several other bonuses.
There are various people that surmise on significant games conditions. Toto site sports wagering is generally anticipating and wagering within the games shutting benefits. Numerous individuals around the world bet right now. Prior, wagering was finished on the web once the on-line computer game was occurring. When utilizing development of mechanical advancement, individuals found a good pace sitting while seeing note pad PC or workstation or PC inside the straightforwardness of their home. This kind of wagering is logically pleasantly preferred one of various betters because of generally excellent components that this products. There are really countless sites work by PC application that advance games wagering keep on the web. You can get more on 먹튀검증 toto site safety playground from azplayers.com, best site for it.submitted by mikelane9955 to u/mikelane9955 [link] [comments]
Bo pet Sports rule: Studying to become considerable game player through your games wagering market, Bo doggy Sports conveyance is called absolute best longshot choices on the web. It gives you a lot of the games and wagering movements from National basketball relationship to NFL which might be head web based games that might be absolutely governmentally licensed from your specialists of Antigua. It might be furthermore favored for rapid payouts, inconvenience free disadvantage plan, security, purchaser happiness splendor and sports wagering potential outcomes. It gives you endless wagering choices beginning with various game parlays to explicit and complexity props.
Sports production. As a main on the web sports get-away spot, it offers you diligently settled specs in the market and has 2 occasions got "Sports bulletin of the time" honor from computer game playing Tales. It will probably be the best online games save all inclusive that gives Toto webpage Casino association, horse hurrying, poker spot and cell purchaser.
Bo hound. Sports rule: This proclaimed as the Premier Positioned Sports save by Insider's Betting Standard just like the more powerful points of interest offer.
Members Only: Athletes just is most likely the most perfectly awesome 먹튀검증 games promptly open on the web. Stacked with Get joy from Aces pc programming, it gives you a great deal of highlights, computer games and top notch client care.
Extremely Manual. This is really the fantastic web based wagering area to bet in the National baseball class or Federal government ice hockey association. This site offers the foundation turnover of enthusiastic clients and it is prominently featured in the eminent courses like CNN, ESPN, and Wall structure Neighborhood Log, Barons, Monetary Circumstances, And You.
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Thursday Night Recap
Singles: 2-2 (-0.02u) Soooo close! Personally I think the OBJ conspiracy was real. He had 10 targets (the most) and almost scored the first TD on their first drive. Not only did his TD get reviewed and overturned but soon after, Juju was taken out of the game. On to the next one!
Parlay: 0-0 (0u) None
BBDLS: 0-0 (0u) Nothing of note here. We put in a free bet and it is still live, but there are much harder games to clear on this one. Lets ride the wave!
SBBDLS: 0-0 (0u) None
Teasers: 0-0 (0u) None
Dallas @ Detroit (-7): This weeks games opens up with a 1pm slate of games that are dooseys. Almost every one of these games feels like the favorite should win but they all have a reasonable percentage of underdog upsets. With Stafford playing the algo predicts this one 27-24 Dallas. But with no Stafford this game is going to rely on the Lions D and their backup QB. The Lions run d allows 4.6 ypc (22nd) and 130 ypg (26th). While their pass D averages giving up 272 ypg (27th) and a 100 passer rating (23rd). The Cowboys passing offense is 3rd in ypg, 4th in ypc, and 1st in ypa 1st. Last week Zeek had a horrible game vs min going 20 rushes for only 47 yards at 2.4 ypc... but he is still top 10 in rush yards with 78 per game. Some interesting stats to go with the Dallas run game:
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+5): Just as the Dallas game, this game looks like it should be a win for the favorite just based upon the offense for the favorite vs the defense of the dog. However, there are definitely scenarios that have Tampa Bay coming away with an upset. The algo has this one as NO -2. Curiously it look-ahead around -7 and has moved down to settle in around 5. This is probably due to the fact the Saints were embarrassed last week by the Falcons. They came out of the bye with 0 energy and the Falcons took advantage. TB was able to pull through last week despite losing the turnover battle and trailing in the fourth. Tampa Bay's ability to protect the ball on offense and force a turnover on defense will be the key for a victory. "They’re 2-12 in games with 0 takeaways. When they force a takeaway, they’re 22-27. When they record exactly one takeaway, they’re 5-16. When they record exactly two, they’re 5-10. Three, as it turns out, is the magic number. When they record at least three, they’re 12-1. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, New Orleans almost never commits three turnovers in a game. In fact, the Saints haven’t done so since 2017, and they haven’t committed two in any game this season." Uncharacteristically, Brees was sacked 6 times last week. Now he is going against Shaquile Barret this week who has 11.5 sacks (1st). The Saints do have Kamara back, but the TB rush D is tops allowing only 78 ypg (1st) and 3.4 ypc (3rd). Brees will likely look to the air as Thomas is on fire, averaging over 100 ypg, and the Tampa Bay pass D ranks bottom of the league giving up an average 299 ypg (league worst) and an average 100 passer rating (24th). In terms of injuries, almost everyone is a go. The only notable injury is Saints Marshon Lattimore. He has been ruled out and this should really add to the TB abuse of the deep ball. The algo does favor the Saints to win, but I don't think I can lay the points on this one.
Fun Fact: NFC South foes Tampa Bay and New Orleans have split their annual series every season since Jameis Winston entered the NFL. NO won the first meeting.
Atlanta at Carolina (-5): My algo has this coming out at Carolina -7. I understand the movement as Atlanta got a huge upset last Sunday and Carolina lost by 2 inches. Before we jump into the stats, I think the most important information for this game is Carolina’s starting tackles, Dennis Daley and Greg Little are both questionable for the game. If they play, I see Kyle Allen having time to throw, CMC having holes to run through, and little resistance from an ATL secondary that ranks near the bottom in everything. However, if those tackles are out, ATL may be able to repeat last weeks performance (6 sacks and 11 QB hits) and give themselves opportunity at another big divisional upset. Other injuries to note: The Falcons will be without tight end Austin Hooper, their receptions (56) and receiving touchdown (six) leader who is out with an MCL sprain. The Panthers will be without defensive back Ross Cockrell (quad), who has played a big role in a variety of positions in the secondary. But, for the Panthers, cornerback James Bradberry back. I am leaning towards Carolina here and while the focus will be on CMC, I think the edge can be found with the WR's in this one.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-2.5): Whoa. Two completely different QBs than the previous week for both teams. It looks as if Brissett is back for the Colts, and after 9 weeks with no BDN, Nick Foals returns. My algo has this game at 22-22 with some HFA to be added in for Indy. This looks like what Vegas got too because they made the spread -3 (hfa on a pk) and the total around 44. Looks like they don't know how to handle the QB change and decided to let the market dictate the price. The Jags are coming off a bye and see the return of wide receiver Dede Westbrook (neck), cornerback D.J. Hayden (neck) and linebacker Quincy Williams (hamstring). Both teams have rush defenses that rank in the bottom of the league, but on the flip side, both teams have rushing offenses that are pretty good. With Jax having the clear edge here. A key stat to note for the Jax rush defense is they are 4-0 when holding opponents under 100 yards rushing...but they are 0-5 when they dont. Without TY Hilton again this week to help stretch the field, I feel like JAX will be able to stack the box and keep the rush yards for IND to a minimum.
Denver at Minnesota (-10): This is another game where I dont think Vegas knows how to cap it. My algo came out with 15-25 MIN. They Vegas spread is -10 with a total of 40. It seems they know the public will like MIN just seeing them come off a win on prime time. As you have probably guessed, my gut leans DEN as I took them on Thursday in my BBDLS parlay. Let's look into the game to see what else is going on. First, we see Denver coming off a bye. Yet another QB named with the last name Allen hopped into the NFL, replacing the injured Joe Flacco and he was 12-of-20 passing for 193 yards and two touchdowns while beating the Cleveland Browns in his first career start. Then, he went into a bye week, giving him double time to get in sync with the plays and the receivers. You know what, there are stats that say the Vikings offense is legit, and the Broncos D is legit. They both have decent running games and run defenses. I'd say the key here is if Min can pressure the young QB. If they can...its a wrap. If they can't? I see Denver with an easy cover and possibly an upset.
NY Jets at Washington (-2.5) This is a curious coin flip of two bottom of the barrel teams this year. The Jets are coming of a win and the Redskins are coming off a bye. This feels like an under game. My algo has this at 20-20 but there is no adjustment for Haskins yet. He has had an extra week to prepare, but the Redskins tend to rely on AP to generate some running game. He will be going against a Jets run D that is L.E.G.I.T. giving up only 3ypc (best in the league) and 82 ypg (2nd). The Redskins run game will an added boost in Guice who will be returning. Honestly, all the numbers lean Jets favor. However... everywhere I look 70-75% of the bets are on the Jets...and the number keeps pushing in their favor. This is usually a big red flag to take the opposite of the majority!
Buffalo at Miami (+6.5): My algo has this 22-20 Buffalo. This is an interesting rematch of a divisional battle. This time though Frank Gore will be returning home to battle his old team in front of his family. Also Jordan Phillips, Bills defensive tackle is returning to where he was originally drafted. He is having a monster year, so watch out! Looking at the Bills offense, it has been pretty mediocre. However, it will be facing a Dolphins defense that ranks bottom in almost everything. ( 31st in points allowed, 29th in total yards, and 30th in sacks per attempt ) Im sure the Bills would like to see their RBs get it going in this match up, but the MIA run d hasn't been that bad. If you take out the games against Baltimore and Dallas (they gave up 500 rush yards in those two combined) then they only averaging giving up 116 per game. If they can hold Buffalo under 100 yards, the potential for an upset exists. The Bills have only ONE win in the 14 games where they failed to rush for at least 100 yards since Sean McDermott took over as coach. They had only 84 last week in Cleveland.
Houston at Baltimore (-4.5): Oooo, this is probably going to be my favorite game of the 1pms. I rarely watch the games, but I am excited to see these teams match up. My algo has this game Bal -4.5. Lining right up with the Vegas spread. Will Fuller has been ruled out for HOU. I dont have analysis for this because Baltimore should be leading in most if not all categories. But I am going to give my gut play here and its ride with the Texans. No analysis, just gut.
Arizona at San Fransico (-9.5) Another divisional rematch. This one is interesting because it has seen a pretty big line movement. It opened in most places as high as -14. But has moved to settle around 9.5/10. My algo actually has this as SF -12.5, however that doesn't account for any injuries...of which the 49ers seem to have in spades. The Niners will be without running back Matt Breida, Joe Staley, and kicker Robbie Gould. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair has been ruled out as he has not cleared the concussion protocol. Defensive lineman D.J. Jones has a groin injury that will sideline him this week. Emmanuel Sanders is hurt but looks to play and Kittle is listed as doubtful but who knows, we saw him dominate the last game vs AZ after his knee got reversed. Honestly, almost every article I read said the same thing. 49ers are mad injured, played 5 quarters on Monday and lost, and now play a divisional opponent on a short week that they only beat by 3 points just 2 weeks ago, bet the Cards to cover and possibly upset. That was my original train of thought too. Then I looked at the public betting percentages. Everywhere you look, 2 out of 3 spread tickets are on the Cards with some places over 70%. Yet the line has had a ton of trouble breaking 10 and with all that love for AZ you'd think it would drop to 7.5/8.5. Because of this, it appears the edge may actually be with the home team to win a blowout. Should be interesting to see what happens!
New England @ Philadelphia (+4.5): An interesting match up here. My algo has this 24-21 NE. Both teams are coming off a bye with limited injuries. The Pats will be without safety Chung, and the Eagles will be without darren sproles, alshon jeffery and deshean jackson. Jordan Mathews is questionable, but Ajayi was signed his week to help with RB depth. What makes this pick really hard is even with all these injuries to the Eagles and Bellichek's after a bye win percentage, AND 80% of the picks being on NE...the line has only moved a point, a point and a half a most. How big are the bets on the Eagles right now to keep the line from ballooning? The Eagles run d is legit, but their secondary is still crap. The Pats D was exposed last week but that was vs an MVP caliber QB lead offense. How has this line not moved?! I want to bet the Pats so bad, but there is this thread pulling at me to take the Eagles. Choose with care here boys.
Cincinatti @ Oakland (-11.5): There isn't much to say here. Cincy is winless and starting a backup QB that was destroyed last week. Oakland has some energy. They fought through a grueling road schedule and now get some rest at home. But, 11.5 points for an OAK team this year just seems like too much. And 11.5 for a cincy team with a back up QB on the road when he just lost by 40 at home...cant do it. The algo has this 24-18 OAK but thats not adjusted for the new QB. Honestly I dont have an adjustment for him because I dont know who he is! I am riding OAK to win in some parlays but points are tough. Knock on wood if you're with me. :D
Chicago @ LA Rams(-6): Last game of the day. Prime time NFC match up. While both of these teams are technically still live for a wild card spot, I don't think either will realistically make it. The Rams have a shot if they can win here AND win vs Dallas and Seattle but honestly I dont see that happening this year. Crazy enough, my algo has this game 21-20 Bears... I think if Montgomery is a go for CHI this game is much tighter. But if he sits, I dont see the offense for the Bears having as much rhythm.
Kansas City vs LA Chargers (+4): I dont normally add the Monday game into these write ups, but since I will have this team in my parlays and teasers, I decided to add it. I am betting this for only one piece of info I heard. (My algo actually likes the opposite side here) This game is in Mexico City. The elevation there is higher than Denver. The Chargers spent all week practicing in Denver to get their bodies acclimated to the elevation. Kansas City has stayed home. With as bad as the KC defense is, the elevation factor, and 4 points...I will be siding with old man Rivers to 2nd half comeback and cover. (and possibly win!)
Note: We have approx 17u in Bonus money from Refer-A-Friend Bonus. Also, Borgata Sportsbook emailed me this week and offered me 10u in free bets just because I made an account there a year ago and never played. Unlike alllll the other sites in NJ, it does have a rollover. It is 6x, so I will use these free bets on only parlays that way if I hit one, I will have extra funds to hit the rollover without playing it for many weeks.
Going really basic this week. Mostly spreads.
Singles 73-72-2 (+26.78u)
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Early Games (1pm)
Carolina @ Houston (-4): Well, my recent fuck up is the best place to start. :D Carolina looked like a real football team last week. I don't know yet if it was the QB change, or the fact that they played in a dome against a bottom of the league team, but there will be no more sleeping on Kyle Allen. Let the data collection begin! So far all we have is the game last week, and his start in week 17 last year. With this he is 2-0 and has thrown 6 TDs 0 Ints. Looks pretty good, but we cant just mentally give him Cam's job until we see how he handles adversity in difficult match ups once other teams have more film on him. But, as long as he keeps up a solid game managing TD to INT ratio, his stout pass D and above average running game should give him many opportunities to win in his next few starts. Houston came through for us last week with a road dog money line upset of the Chargers. They had to grind it out with rivers going 5-15 on 3rd downs and throwing 46 times but both sides of the ball did their job. This should turn out to be a good defensive battle. I would look for a lot of Sacks in this game as both teams like to send pressure. As long as their aren't a ton of D/ST scores, this looks to play to the under. ***Interesting note: Panthers DE Bruce Irvin will make his season debut Sunday after missing the first three games with a hamstring injury**.** \***
Cleveland @ Baltimore(-7): Our first divisional match up of the day. Both are coming off losses. Cleveland on prime time to an undefeated Rams team and Baltimore to an undefeated Chiefs team. No real injuries to note. These teams seem to have opposite identities at the moment. Cleveland has a pretty decent D, even with some minor injuries, but their offense has struggled to find rhythm. Baltimore has a pretty legit offense, but their D isn't the same as we are used to. I mean, with a Baltimore D of old, this team taking early leads would be unstoppable. But they let Kyler Murray come in and stay within a TD. Personally, I hope Baltimore SMOKEs Cleveland. I want them to take a division lead, get the public against Cleveland. Then watch Cleveland go 1-2 in October with a Loss, Win, Loss. Then they will be 2-5 overall and hopefully we will get GREAT odds on them to win the division. Then they win out the year with a laughable schedule and go 11-5 and 5-1 in the division. That's the plan! :D
Washington @ New York Giants (-3): Another divisional match up. This one with probably zero playoff implications. Barring Danny Dimes somehow being the next Mahommes and scoring 30 points a game, I cant see how this game matters to the league this year. Even IF double D scored 30 points a game, the Giants D is bad enough they still might lose those games. Washington is 0-3. They were just obliterated by the Bears on MNF last week. Keenum had like 12 INTs? This is going to be a battle of spirit IMO. The spirit of desperation by the Redskins vs. the new kid on the block in NY playing his first home game as a regular season starter. I like the way DD came out and handled the pressure. He even did it with Barkley going down (now out 4-6 weeks). But I dont like how bad the Giants secondary is. I think there is a better chance of Keenum making up for his performance last week by coming out strong against this Giants D, than there is of DD carrying the team to another win off pure Spirit. But spirit is a powerful thing! If there was no spread, i would have to side with the Giants...but give me 3 points in what I think is an evenly bad match up? It may swing me to the road dog. For now though, I dont see much edge on the spread and will probably just observe. HOWEVER! I did like how DD and Evan Ingram were in sync. Ingram is +200 to get a 100yd game and he is already 2 for 3 this year. Also, the over is getting bet hard so I look for opportunities for him.
L.A. Chargers @ Miami(+14.5): Well, well, well. One of my favorite spots in the NFL. A West Coast team traveling to the far East Coast to play a 1pm game. The Chargers are coming off a tough home loss to the Texans last week. The algo predicted it, which was nice for us, but the chargers lead for a good while, so I am sure it was even more stingy of a loss. Now they travel all the way to Miami to play a team with probably the worst 3 game start in NFL history. However. TWO things for me in this game. One: Rozen isn't bad. He played well, but his receivers currently drop more balls than they catch. He gave them a chance to take the lead near the end of the 1st half vs. Dallas. They faded in the second half, but they came out strong. Two: If you followed me last year, you will know I love betting against the west coast team in the first quartehalf when they are traveling east for a 1pm game. Their brains think its 10am and they are just a step slower to start the game. On the chargers side of the ball, Melvin Gordon has ended his holdout. He won't play this game, but is expected to play week 5. Austin Eckler will probably be taking his last shot as a starter for a while. I expect him to run with purpose. He also has the opportunity to do it against a Miami D that, well, I don't think I need to say more. :P
Oakland @ Indy(-7): Oakland opened the season strong with a win against Denver but has since suffered back to back crushing losses to playoff teams. Indy is 2-1 but could just as easily be 0-3. Brissett is managing and the Indy D is pretty legit. TY Hilton is doubtful for this game. Darren Waller is just 8 receptions away from beating Antonio Gates for the best 4 game start for a TE in NFL history. This feels like an Indy win, OAK cover type spot but I wouldn't sleep on OAK to get a potential upset.
Kansas City @ Detroit(+6.5/7/7.5): Both teams are undefeated with DET blowing an easy game against Arizona to give up a tie. All three of the NJ sites i frequent have a different line. I am finding this game one of the more difficult to judge. My gut instinct says Patty cakes is out there baking cakes. But I can't understand why there is enough favor on the DET side to keep this game from moving up to -8. I mean, so far over 80% of the spread tickets are on KC. Usually that should call for some more balance. But there was a lot of trouble pushing it through the key number of 7 so that has me weary of the spread. My spot for a bet? Travis Kelce has games of 88, 107, and 89 yards recieving this year. His O/U is 82.5 in a game that has a very high points total. I feel like he is almost always good for a 20yrd reception so really I am looking at a number closer to 65.
New England @ Buffalo (+7): Dildo Time. Two 3-0 teams face for a KEY Divisional match up. It's safe to say there is a very strong chance both of these teams go 4-0 against the other 2 teams in the division. If Buffalo can steal away an early divisional game, they could really give themselves hope and excitement. Unfortunately for them they are facing the Patriots who's defense has yet to give up a TD against opposing offenses and a Patriots offense that is demolishing teams so far. I know the Bills are 3-0 and I normally loooove home dogs, but I just cant take the points here. To be honest, I can see another dildo game. HUGE expectations on the Bills, Brady comes in a wrecks them, dildos everywhere. Here's a tweet that has me thinking for dildos.
Tennessee @ Atlanta (-3.5): The final game of the 1pm slate. The Titans are what they have been in previous years. Inconsistent. They opened the season with a fantastic road win against the hyped Browns. Then lost a close Divisional game to the Colts before following that up with another Divisional loss vs. the Mustache. Atlanta has followed the same pattern of inconsistency of wins by getting blown out in their opener and upsetting the Eagles in game 2 and throwing away an opportunity to beat the Colts in week 3 by giving up an early lead and throwing a Key pick that could have given them a shot at a win. There are two things in this game that will have me side with the road dog. One: The Falcons lost S Keanu Neal. Two: The Titans have had a few extra days to prepare since their last game was a Thursday game.
Afternoon Games (4pm)
Seattle @ Arizona (+5/5.5): Both spreads are available to me, so its just a matter of if I like SEA or AZ. Seattle is coming off a disappointing home loss to the Brees-less Saints and sits at 2-1. Arizona is 0-3. Russel Wilson played spectacularly, but the Saints D/ST won the game for them building an early lead. Seattle tried to battle back and put up a valiant effort but fell short on time. Arizona looked like they could compete in weeks 1 and 2, but in week 3 lost a home game to a win-less team with a backup QB. There are some for sure props to look at in this game IMO. Cardinals are horrible against TEs giving up 131 and TD, 112 and a TD, and 75 and 2TDs. TE Will Dissly receptions and yards have progressed as follows: 1rec-12yds-0tds, 5rec-50yds-2tds, 6rec-62yds-1td. I think he is becoming a key target for Rus this year. They have also been burned by Stafford for 22yds rushing and Jackson for 120 rushing. I like Russ to have many opportunities to get his.
Tampa Bay @ LA Rams (-9): The Bucs are 1-2 coming off a disappointing last second missed 34 yard field goal to give DD his first win in his first start. The Rams are 3-0 coming off beating the Browns. I mean TB has a decent pass rush with Barrett, but their secondary is pretty bad, allowing the Giants to come back and win that game. I think this is a perfect opportunity for the Rams to get rolling on offense. I see them putting up base 27. So the question is, can the Bucs keep up to cover the spread and combined with that, can the Rams hold off garbage time points?
Minnesota @ Chicago (-1.5): A HUGE divisional game with both teams needing the win having lost to Green Bay already. Minn is coming off a home game whooping of the Raiders while the Bears are coming off a road win whooping of the Redskins. Both teams have top ranked Ds and meh Os with the edge going to the Bears and the Vikings, respectively. I feel like this is going to be a heavy defensive game. Cook should finally be held under 100 yards rushing.
Jacksonville @ Denver(-2.5/3): Jacksonville is coming off a win and some extra rest. Denver is still waiting for its first sack, and its first win. On the flip side, Jacksonville recorded NINE sacks last week. This game looks like it is shaping up to be just like the Jax/Hou game. Low scoring. This game might be a candidate to tease Jax up and the Under. As for props, DJ Chark has a TD in every game this season. If he gets one in Denver, he breaks the franchise record. Even thought its predicted a very low scoring game, I like that he is getting 2.6 to 1 to do so!
Dallas @ New Orleans(+2.5,3): This is one of the hardest games for me. The Cowboys are 3-0 and looking good. But they did it against mediocre competition. The saints are Brees-less but are coming off a great D/ST performance and a game managed win for Bridgewater. Though the Saints have complained about bad calls a decent amount and they are the Third most penalized team this year so far, they do have a favorable crew tonight. "The crew working Sunday's game is led by official Carl Cheffers. Cheffers has been a crew chief since 2008, and, according to Payton, has worked 13 Saints games since 2006. The Saints record over that time with this crew: 12-1. " My gut tells me, if Brees didn't get hurt and the Saints entered this game 3-0 with Brees, the spread would be somewhere between Saints -3 and Saints -6.5. Is Brees going down worth a 6-9 point shift? Probably not. Given Bridgewater has a decent record and he's not the only QB for the Saints. Honestly, how is the over getting so much action?! Both teams have legit Defenses. These two played last year with Brees and it was a heavy under hit. That game Kamara and Ingram got nowhere and Dak and Dallas could throw the ball but they had trouble converting in the Red Zone. If a similar game script happens I could see Dallas having the edge this time given they have an added red zone threat in Jason Witton, and the Saints are without Brees. If you're going to bet this game, definitely shop for your number!
Singles: 8-7-1 [+1.55u]
Parlays: 0-0 [0u] \**I recently received a 10u free bet on Draftkings NJ. All of these parlays are free bets****
Teasers: 2-2 [-1u ]
Thanks for reading. Good Luck to everyone! :D
https://preview.redd.it/6z3pm7zaa3v31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c0b4ba60258e70d1ea5457bcd2111b890f81fa60submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Hi all! We have a wonderful Sunday slate ahead, first lets recap TNF.
Singles: 3-0 (+9.78u)
Parlay: 0-2 (-2u)
Notes: This was an amazing little set for us. We were able to go 3-0 and cash in on the Cook to score the first TD @ over +300. I added in those two late parlays with Washington either winning or covering 4.5. Honestly, even after watching the game, I still think plays on WAS were profitable. Before Keenum went down, WAS had a real shot in that game. On to this Sundays games!
Early Games (1pm)
New York @ Detroit (-6/6.5): To start the day, we have a battle of two sub .500 teams. The Giants are coming off a heart breaker (at least to me, haha) They allowed the Cardinals to come in and deliver an upset victory even though the Giants were coming off increased rest and had some key players returning. Detroit's season so far has been surrounded in a cloud of shit. Maybe the first game of the season should have been an indicator of how their season will play out. Look really good coming out of the gate, but overall fail to live up to the start. They will look to halt their recent stumbles against a Giants offence that has 18 turnovers (worst in the league!). On the flip side, the Giants will probably look to use the return of Saquan to exploit the Lions rush D that gives up an average 4.8 ypc (26th) and 140 ypg on ground (28th). Some notable injuries include: Sterling Shepherd is still out for the Giants, and Kerryon Johnson is out for the Lions after injuring his knee in the game last week against the Vikings. Another notable piece missing will be Quandre Diggs. The lions traded him to Seattle this week in exchange for a 2020 fifth-round pick. This game is going to be about the start. My algo is favoring DET by a TD, but DET hasn't beaten anyone yet by more than 3 points and with their recent struggles and poor run D... NY has the potential to get a lead and lean on their run game, I think a pure upset is possible here. Golden Tate is returning to Detroit and has been a steady look for Jones since his insertion into the Lions offense with a steady increase in targets. (week 5 (6) week 6 (9) week 7 (11))
Tampa Bay @ Tennessee (-2.5): Here we have the well rested Bucs coming off of a loss in London and then a bye week. While the Titans have had a small roller coaster over the last few weeks. They were sliding and ultimately replaced Mariota with Ryan Tannehill. The change of QB ignited a boost from the offense (putting up 400 last week) that was previously lacking in a downfield attack. Other than the Bucs missing TE OJ Howard, there aren't any serious, notable injuries. So, Tennessee does have Derrick Henry...but, the Bucs have a The BEST run D, giving up only 2.9 ypc and 68 ypg (1st in both!) However, the Bucs pass D is atrocious and overall the Bucs have given up 30+ points in EVERY game this year except one. Emotionally it feels like the Titans should be riding high. The change of QB sparked the offense, and the Titans D has made THREE goal line stands this year, in the final minute of games, for wins each time. The Titans D is also sporting a very respectable 16 ppg given up to opposing offense. (good for 4th in the league) The Algo has TB -1 here so its a very curious spread. Usually in these low spread coin flip spots I either stay away or play both sides in separate plays. Looking props, I would look to Cory Davis and AJ Brown (WRs for TEN) who with the QB change went for a combined 12 catches for 144 yards off only 15 targets last game...and this game they are facing the TB secondary that is giving up over 300 ypg in the air.
L.A. Chargers @ Chicago (-3.5/-4): Here we have a classic battle of two teams who preseason were favorites to make the playoffs. Now, less than halfway through the season, it looks as if both teams will be looking ahead to next year. The Chargers are coming off a really tough loss to the Titans last week where it looked like the Chargers scored 3 times to win the game, but none of the attempts ended up counting. The Bears are coming off a blowout loss to the Saints (who were somehow underdogs even though they have been dominant) The Bears offense just doesn't have it. Mitch looks great when the opposing D drops into prevent and gives him time to find open guys...but other than that, he is really struggling. First let's look at notable injuries:
LAC: Melvin Ingram (hamstring) is expected to return after missing the last three games and (LT) Russell Okung (pulmonary embolism) will make his season debut after experiencing major health issues during the off season.
CHI: Chicago CB Sherrick McManis (concussion) likely will miss the game after being injured against the Saints.
Alright, so if Mitch is going to get back on track and show his owners he deserves to stay on this team, the Chargers D is a good spot for him to do it. The Charges D is near the bottom in almost everything [Comp % (32nd), QBR (28th), YPA (29th)]. They only give up 216 ypg in the air., but that's only vs 185 attempts (3rd fewest in the league). On the other side, the Bears D is still pretty good in every category. They only falter in one, Completion Percentage (69%) which is 27th in the league.
In props we are looking at both RBs for this game. Last week Eckler went: 7 rec, 118 yds and a TD and is tied for 3rd most receptions in the NFL! To add to that, the Bears have given up the 5th most yards to receiving backs. On the other side we have Cohen who gets a ton of opportunity for receptions.
Note: Sooo, an interesting stat I came across: Betting the Chargers on the road vs. a team with a better win, would have you sitting at % 22-4 ATS, and if you had teased them you would be 26-0. This is the Chargers over the last 5 years
Seattle @ Atlanta (+7): Soo, it is currently 2:30 pm on Saturday and as I am writing this, most of the online books here in NJ took this game down. The line was originally floating around 3.5/4, now it is only available at 7 on two sites. I am assuming this is because ATL activated their QB3 indicating Ryan has a great chance of being inactive. In injury news: "
The Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant will miss his third straight game with a toe injury. Rookie Kendall Sheffield will get the start in Trufant’s place. The Falcons will also be without guard James Carpenter (knee) and running back Ito Smith, who is in concussion protocol.
For Seattle, defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson (oblique) and safety Delano Hill (elbow) have been declared out. The problem for the Seahawks is that they have six players listed as questionable, including recent acquire, Quandre Diggs.
Lets start with the obvious, the Falcons D. Atlanta run D is actually pretty good, holding opposing RBs to under 4 ypc and 70 ypg. But, their secondary is trash, bottom of the league in almost everything: QBR 31st, ypg 28th, comp % 29th. The Seattle D is not the defense of old. They average giving up 25 ppg and 360 ypg. However, they are top 10 in takeaways this year with 12 and the ATL offense has 12 turnovers already. On the other side, even with losing to Baltimore last week, SEA O ranks in the top 10 in: qbr 2nd, ypg 10th, comp % 8th, and ypa. Going against that ATL D, the edge definitely sits with SEA. In props, the look is on Austin Hooper. He has had minimum 4 receptions per game, is averaging over 7, and should get an increase in his looks with ATL trading away their WR2 in Sanu.
Denver @ Indianapolis (-4.5/-5): This is one of the most curious lines to me. The algo has the Colts at only -4. Public perception should have the colts at -7/7.5. Yet the line opened at 5, briefly moved up to 5.5 and has been slowly falling to 4.5. I feel like the Colts should rock this game, but the lines are red flagging me otherwise. Lets jump into the numbers. Other than Carl Davis, there are no real injuries to note. In terms of sacks, Brissett has been sacked only 7 times this year, while Flacco has been sacked a whopping 23 times! Even with the recent loss to the Chiefs, the Bronco's D is pretty stout, giving up only the 5th best passer rating and they are 3rd in pass ypg and 3rd in ypa giving up less than 200 pass ypg. The Indy D ranks 19th in rush yards allowed per game, 26th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric and 28th and 30th in tackling and run defense respectively according to Pro Football Focus. But, the Bronco's offense sucks ranking 29th in ppg and 25th in ypg. Likely to give them less of an offensive threat is the trade of Emanuel Sanders to the 49ers. If I am going props in this game it would have to be Lindsey(Indy rush D is not that good) or Sutton (he is already the number 1, and the number 2 was traded away this week)
Every time I review this game, the logic tells me that Indy should win and keep the train rolling. But something inside keeps screaming take Denver. Probably nothing, but Im gonna note it :P
NY Jets @ Jacksonville (-6/-6.5/-7): A lot of lines available for this one, which is funny to me...as you'll see, I and my algo both favor the Jets. The Jets are coming off a sha-lacking vs. the Patriots where they were completely shut down. Jacksonville is coming off a 10 point win, but the game was much closer than the score shows with Jacksonville trailing into the 4th where they scored 18 points. Darnold had an issue with a toe, but it looks as if he as go. Other than that, there are 3 linebackers out for Jacksonville, and 1 possibly for NY. The Jets get to see the return of TE Herndon. As we all know, the Jax offense starts with their run game which is pretty good, gaining 5.1 ypc (3rd), and 140 ypg (5th). But, the strength of the Jets defense is their run D. They held pats to 2.2 ypc, and overall they only give up 3.3 ypc (2nd) and 92 ypg (11th) The Jets offense hasn't done much, but they have only started Darnold in 2 games (not including the Pats game because their D seems to be an outlier) and he is 1-1 and could quite easily be 2-0 in those games (losing the first one to the Bills comeback in week 1) It will be facing a Jax D that is pretty good. Their pass rush has a 30% pressure rate (6th), 21 sacks (4th), and a 9.2% knockdown rate (3rd). The algo has Jax @ -9/10 here. But does anyone really feel that confident laying a TD with Jax right now? Based upon the number match ups, this looks like it is going to be a grind of a game with both teams struggling for points. In those predicted under type games, I almost always favor the large amount of points. This is a game that deserves some underdog action.
Philadelphia @ Buffalo (-2): The Eagles are coming off a big divisional loss to the Cowboys on Prime Time, while Buffalo is coming off a win, but a win they had to fight back to get. They were expected to easily handle the Dolphins last week but were taken by surprise as Miami took an early lead. They fought back to take the lead and held on by returning an onside kick for a TD. As usual, lets start with the injury report
For the Eagles, everyone here is OUT:
Lets start with Philly. This is their fourth road game in five weeks and they have allowed an average of 31.5 ppg in all 4 road games. Their defense has given up 24 or more points in 6 of 7 games this year and the only game they didn't give up at least 24...was vs. the Jets with Luke Falk at QB. In all 4 of their losses they have had a turnover. Clean games have not been easy for them. They will be facing a Buffalo D that is top in the league. They only give up 15 ppg (3rd) under 300 ypg (3rd) and their pass d is top 5 in ypg, passer rating, completion % and ypa. Combine that with the NFL's seventh-ranked rushing attack (135.8 ypg) with Frank Gore gaining 4.5 ypc. However, Philly is known to stack the box and stop the run. They were gashed last week, but overall only give up 90 ypg on the ground so far. With Philly likely to stack the box and force Buffalo to throw, I will be looking at Brown and Beasly for props, going against a Philly secondary that is laughable. My only concern in this game is my algo has BUF -8.5 and the Vegas spread is WAYYY off from that. This may have me avoiding a side in singles when i would normally feel Buffalo here.
Cincinatti @ LA Rams (-11.5/-12/-12.5): Curious that the spreads are all over the place. However, 11-13 are really dead numbers so not much info to be gained from the multiple spreads. Cincinati looks worse than MIA. They looked decent for 3 quarters last week, but just couldn't hold it together. The Rams took the opportunity to play the Atlanta D and easily hopped back on the win train. This game will be taking place in London. The Bengals arrived on Friday and the Rams spent the week in ATL after last weeks game, and flew to London on Thursday night. No real injuries that need to be talked about. There are a few players out for both sides but nothing should effect the game much. So the Rams D had 5 sacks last week and is 4th in the league in QB pressure. Cincy has already been sacked 24 times this year. The add on of Jaylen Ramsey saw immediate impact as he had 4 tackles and a forced fumble in his first game with the Rams. The Cincy D has allowed an average 102 QBR and 8.4 ypa. While the Rams offense scores 27 ppg (7th) and gains 372 ypg (12th). Another interesting stat: Cincinnati's minus-9 turnover differential is the third-worst in the NFL. The algo only has LA as -9.5/-10.5 so i will probably avoid spreads in this game. For an interesting prop look, check out Darrel Henderson. The RB2 is out and in a gamescript where the Rams are leading by more than a score, they might look to rest Gurley for more difficult situations. This may lead to increased looks for Henderson.
Arizona @ New Orleans (-12/-12.5): Whoa! Big movement and big news. This line opened at 7.5 and has now moved all the way up to 12.5 in most books. This is in connection with the announcement that Brees will be returning this Sunday to lead his team into the bye week. 1st question... why? Bridgewater is 5-0 in his absence. They are facing what should be one of their easier opponents, and they head into a bye next week. Maybe they want Brees to see some game time speed, given it should be one of their easier games. This way he doesn't come out cold in two weeks... I dont know. Either way, it seems like a curious change to make. The Saints have Smith, Cook and Robinson out. While the Cardinals Allen and Foster with a whole list of questionable.
The Saints D is amazing so far. Currently they haven't allowed more than 260 total yards in 4 straight games and they are 34% on 3rd down, and have 20 sacks (5th). In the first four games, Arizona allowed 20 sacks (all losses or tie) but in the last 3 (all wins) Murray has only been sacked a total of 3 times. My Algo had this only as NO -4.5. Now that Brees is in and the line has moved so much, this game may be an avoid game. In props, I may look to Murray's rush yards. He should be pressured a ton in this game, and when he is pressured he likes to move.
Oakland @ Houston (-6.5): Oakland is on their 5th straight road game and coming off a loss at GB. They actually had a chance in that game. Carr fumbled in the end zone and it caused a 14 point swing that took away any momentum Oakland had. The OAK D has given up 21 points in 5 straight games and the pass rush has only a 14 % pressure rate (32nd), a 19 % blitz rate (4th lowest) and 10 sacks (28th). If they dont get to the QB, it might be all Houston as Watson is 7-0 in games when he doesn't get sacked and he is sporting 8.3 ypa through the air this year. Along side him is a pretty solid run game lead by Carlos Hyde gaining an average 66 ypg, 4.2 ypc. With the Texans rush offense as a whole gaining 4.9 ypc (5th) and 134 ypg (8th). The Algo has this as Hou -9.5 so this actually makes me suspicious of the spread. Any bets in this game will come down to the start/sit of Josh Jacobs. Without the threat of him in the backfield, the Texans D will be able to drop extra men into coverage, but if he plays, I would look for a closer game that leans towards a shootout.
Carolina @ San Francisco (-4.5/-5/-5.5): These next three are my most anticipated games of the slate. This game features the undefeated 49ers hosting the streaking Panthers. For Carolina, no notable injuries for this week. For the 49ers its the same as before. (FB) Kyle Juszczyk (knee), (OT) Mike McGlinchey (knee), and (OT) Joe Staley are all still out. So to start with we see Garoppolo is 5-0 with eight touchdowns and three interceptions in five home starts with San Francisco. They just added Emanuel Sanders to the roster which should ultimately boost their already good 7.9 ypa on offense. Garoppolo will be going against the Panthers’ secondary that was outstanding early in the season but has surrendered more than 350 yards in consecutive games. The SF rush D that has only allowed 4.1ypc (12th) and 90 ypg (7th) will have its hands full this week going up against Christian McCaffrey who has 923 yards rushing so far. An interesting stat that has me leaning Carolina in this one: CAR blitzes the fewest of any team in the league...YET, they lead the NFL in sacks. I will be shopping my line here and lean with the dog.
Cleveland @ New England (-10/-10.5/-11): This is going to be a fun match up to watch. But it doesn't appear it will be a good game. There are no real injuries to note and you could make a case for CLE by saying they are coming off a bye and are desperate for a win vs. a NE team that is coming off a short week. But with my model, that doesn't appear to be the case. The Cleveland offense averages 231 ypg (16th) and 7.5 ypa (15th) but has 15 dropped passes (3rd )and 11 ints (32nd). They have 1 in every game... Also, Baker has turned the ball over 12 times this year (tied for the most in the NFL) going against a NE D that has 18 INTs right now. This looks like a game where the Patriots will utilize their mutli-headed run game as Cleveland has been gashed for 154.0 yard per game on the ground. The one shining light for the browns D is they have 19 sacks. However, 9 of those sacks have come from Myles Garret. Also, here is a video I came across where it is detailed how to disrupt the play of Baker Mayfield. I feel like if I can find this, so can the Patriots.
Sunday Night Football
Green Bay @ Kansas City(+4.5/+5): This one has the biggest line movement of the slate. Originally, it opened KC -4, since the Mahomes injury, it has moved to what it is now. The only other notable injury is DeVante Adams will still be out for GB. Starting for KC should be Matt Moore, who replaced PM during the Denver game. He did fairly well, coming in and going 10-19 117 yds, 1TD and a 90 QBR. KC last played on Thursday, so they had a few extra days to prepare for this one. I feel like with Matt Moore starting at QB, a lot of KC offensive stats are devalued. KC defense has 20 sacks (5th) and will be facing and offensive line in GB that has only give up 12 sacks. The packers rank 11th in offense but it has mostly been due to the passing game. They have failed to get more than 80 yards rushing in 4 of 7. They may look to turn that around this week against a poor KC run defense that gives up 5 ypc (30th) and 150 ypg (29th). I dont expect Matt Moore to have too difficult of a time. He still has a lot of star power on the offensive side of the ball and they will be facing a Green Bay defense that ranks 26th in total defense and has given up 420 or more total yards three times. However, the team is ninth in scoring defense with 13 takeaways. My algo had GB -2.5, before the PM adjustments. I dont think Moore deserves the 8-9 points Vegas is adjusting for, but even field goad pushes GB to -5.5. Overall for props the model is predicting both of GBs running backs to have increased opportunities on the ground and in the air.
Singles 46-53-2 (+3.03u)
Parlays: 1-3 (+43.42u)
Thanks for reading. Good luck to all!!
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Divisional Round Recap:
Singles 18-22 (+7.37u) Horrrrible first game. Won each game after to make up for it but if I had just sat out the first game I would have skipped an 0-8 -5.3u run. 😂
Parlays: 0-0(0u) We didnt hit any of our free plays but fortunately it didn't negatively impact the BR. We were 3-4 for a 34u win and the fourth bet was Henry anytime TD. Unfortunately he threw his TD and most books dont include passing TDs.
BBDLS: 0-2 (-4u): Having MIN in all of these really killed me. Didnt realize I didnt balance here until everything was posted.
Futures: 0-3 (-2u): Still live here! Wishing I took KC/GB last week!
Before we get started, there is a theme to today's game picks. I was going to write about it last week and put in a futures play but it didn't make it to the to the paper. Here we are one week later, last chance to talk about it AND it coincides with my algo's picks.
This year marks the NFL's 100th anniversary. In the NFL's first Superbowl the Packers beat the Chiefs... How awesome of a story line would it be if the Superbowl in the NFL's 100th anniversary hosted a rematch of it's first Superbowl?!
Tennessee at Kansas City (-7): Man, Derrick Henry is not only the Titans MVP, he could be the actual mascot for his team,as he is a Titan of a human. I don't often watch the games, but I make an exception for the playoffs. This is the first time I am really seeing his actual size vs the players trying to tackle him. I know the first time these two met KC was a 5 point road favorite that lost straight up... Even still, my algo has KC -9.5 in this one. If you look back at that game KC in the 4th quarter was about to kick a FG to not only win, but cover the spread, however that FG was blocked and turned into a TD and an upset win. The Titans have been great since the Tannehill switch but in these playoffs, I don't really think their defense has been tested. The first game they played a Patriots offense that has struggled most of the year and in the second game game script gave them an early lead and they were able to play a much more relaxed style of defense. Now they are going up against probably the best offense left with a complimentary defense that has been consistently improving as the season progressed. At any point TEN could have a multi score lead and the Chiefs could be right back in it. The same doesn't appear to ring true for the Titans. I am on the fence about the total. KC could easily put up 30 points, but can TEN put up more than 17/20 here? Without a defensive score, I am not sure that happens. I feel like the value might grow on the under as we get closer to game time. If the public pushes the total up to 54 or higher I think it will be a great spot to take the under. 31-17, 34-20 seem like very reasonable scores :D
Added factors for why I like the Chiefs:
Green Bay at San Francisco (-7.5): This game is much tougher than the previous as my algo has this game rated much closer than Vegas is predicting (I have SF -4). I think that SF has the better coach, and the better Team. But i think GB has the better players at Skill positions. Who would you rather? DeVante Adams or Samuel/Emmanuel, Aaron Jones or one of the three SF RBs, Rodgers with playoff experience and a great O line, or Garoppolo with a good jaw line and a coach that makes great schemes? In the first matchup between these two, SF got out to an early two TD lead, finished the half up 20-0 never slowed down. I don't think that is likely to repeat in this match up. My algo is showing heavy value on GB and with the potential rematch of Superbowl one in the leagues sites I feel there is good value on the GB ml. Even safer value than that is the GB first half spread (+4/4.5) or even the GB first quarter ml (+180). I will also be looking at Smith and Smith. They are two defensive players for GB that have dramatically changed stats of the GB D from 2018 to 2019. From a great article on Warren Sharp's website: "
Per Football Outsiders’ DVOA, the Packers ranked eighth on offense in 2019 after ranking seventh in 2018. On defense, Green Bay ranked 15th in the 2019 regular season after ranking 29th in 2018.
Green Bay’s pass rush has the potential to make a difference in the NFC Championship Game against a San Francisco offensive line that ranked just 26th in Pass Block Win Rate during the regular season. Even in the blowout loss during the regular season, Za’Darius and Preston combined for two sacks while the 49ers were not forced to throw much at all — there were just 21 pass snaps on the day. Green Bay will have to hope there’s a little more opportunity on Sunday.
Without the Smiths, the Packers might not be in the postseason. Now might be the key to making it to the Super Bowl. The Packers took their biggest risk by spending in free agency but the payoff has already been worth it. "
Since my algo is already favoring GB, I am gonna saddle up and ride with Sharp and the Smith's...(New band name anyone?😜)
Post Season Bets
Singles 27-34 (-0.51u)
These are all odds boost on Sugarhouse that I find attractive
Parlays: 0-3 (-6u) These are a carryover from the Mcgregor fight. I tried to put in a parlay with these picks AND McGregor to win in the first 60 seconds(16-1 itself) Foxbet website was having trouble making the parlays for the whole hour leading up to the fight. Chat advised me to put the bet down on Conor and then the bet on NFL and that I would get the same odds. I did that and Luckily for me the odds on GB ml went up! :D
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Singles: 10-10 (-3.63u)
Parlay: 0-0 (0u): None
BBDLS: 0-1 (-1.2u)
SBBDLS: 0-1 (-0.5u)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3u)
Tennessee at Houston(+6): Huge first game to open up the card. TEN controls their playoff destiny. Win and they are in. Houston is already in but O'brien says he isn't resting players. I can't imagine he sticks to that plan. There is no reason for him to risk any injury to anyone important. I think Vegas is charging the public on the TEN spread. My algo has this game a PK with TEN -2.5 on a neutral field. With the return of Derrick Henry and Tennessee's top red-zone offense combined with 0 reasons for the Texan's to play a full game, this one is an easy ml parlay candidate. There aren't many props I will be looking at on this final weekend, but Henry is one of them. A week of rest and a win and in scenario for the player that the offense runs through? Sign me up.
Extra note: The KC/LAC game is at 1pm. The only chance HOU has to move up is for KC to lose in the 1pm game, then HOU would be majorly incentivised to win this game. May put a BBDLS in that has this combination. Which btw, if you believe the game is rigged to get the Patriots to another superbowl, having KC and HOU swap seeding and make KC and BAL eliminate one of each other seems like the easiest road for New England...
Cleveland at Cincinnati(+3): Annnnd here we have the first coin flip of the day. Half a season ago this would have been an easy Browns pick. Now who knows who is going to get up for this game. Im sure everyone in Cleveland would like to end the season on a win. At least it will make a look back a the whole season a little less bitter for them. CIN has clinched a first round pick in the draft. Does this mean that Dalton and Co. are going to take his probably last opportunity as a Bengals starter to showcase their talents for next year's money? Both teams will most likely rely heavily on their running games so I will be fading this one except to maybe take a Bengals ml in a BBDLS
Chicago at Minnesota(+3): Another divisional match up here. This game opened at MIN -7 and because they cant move up or down from the 6 seed it looks like they will be resting most of their key players. CHI is only playing for pride and has only one win against a team with a winning record this year, luckily for them it was against this team, at full strength! Not knowing who is going to play for MIN will keep me from looking their way even with the points and HF.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville(+4): Just like the CLE/CIN game this one is anyone's game. We have a few of these this week. Teams that are both out of the playoffs with no incentive to win other than pride and future contracts. Ill expect IND to try and replicate last weeks effort on the ground as JAX has a run defense with season stats almost identical to CAR. JAX is hit or miss so in the final (home) game of the season, catching points...Ill have to ride dog or fade.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay(-2): Another game with two teams who have zero post season opportunity. Both have been playing above their records over the month of December with ATL coming into this having won their last 3 games. TB has been crap at home this year so far going 2-5. Can they pick up this last game and finish the season .500? My algo is saying no. Currently it is siding with the surge of defense being played by the Falcons in the second half of the season and with less reliable targets for Winston to throw to and a fantastic match up for Julio, Im gonna have to side with the road team here.
Washington at Dallas(-11): Boy did the Cowboys really suck last week. They couldn't put up 10 points on an Eagle's secondary that has been getting burned all year. An Eagle's secondary that just gave up like 35 points to the Case Keenum lead Redskins... I mean one would think that Dallas, playing for a miracle to get in the playoffs, would give this game everything and dominate from start to finish. But, why woulnt they just do that last week? Plus, Keenum didn't look that bad (although it was against the Giants secondary). Eleven is a lot of points for a 45 total. That would mean Dallas would have to put up 27 -31 points and keep WAS at 13-17. Doable but not profitable at a -110 bet. Will probably save Dallas for a ML parlay or WAS and the points for a BBDLS. Won't be looking props except Zeke who will be facing a Skins D that gave up almost 200 last week to Saquan alone...
Extra trends: The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six against teams with a losing record and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against NFC East teams. Washington is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
New Orleans at Carolina(-13): Well, Will Greer didnt spark the fire in the dying CAR team. CAR has lost their last 7 games and has given up an average 32 ppg over those games. The Rivera defense is over. The Saints on the other hand are operating on the opposite end of the spectrum. Brees had that stumble against ATL but other than that he has looked great as the Saints offense has put 34 or more points in 5 of their last 6. Two TDs is a lot, but if there are a few teams that could do it more often than 53% in this spot, NO is one of them.
Philadelphia at NY Giants(+4): A meaningful match up for two teams, but only one of them is playing this game. Philly controls their playoff destiny, as they seemed to have for the last few weeks. A win here with crown them NFC East champs and send them to the playoffs. A loss + a DAL win would end Philly's season and send the Cowboys to the post season. My algo is all over this one for a high scoring game. Both secondary's suck. Greg Ward has quietly become a go to guy for Wentz, posting 15 receptions for 166 yards and 1 touchdown on 23 targets over his last 3 games. Jones seems to favor Tate in terms of targets, but Shepherd has the softest match up going against Jalen Mills.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore(+2): Baltimore is in the playoffs and has the guaranteed one seed in the AFC. PIT is seeing their playoff chances slip away. With their loss last week to the Jets, they now need to win this game AND a loss from the Titans. The good news for them is that BAL has their spot locked up and looks to rest a TON of key players. Even so the backup, RG3, isn't the worst guy to step in. He is basically the B team version of Jackson. Well, maybe the C team, haha but even a C team running QB seems more dangerous than whoever PIT has been putting on the field at QB this season. This game's total has been dropping as the week goes on so there is a good chance I just skip it all together as low totals aren't usually good games to target props. Also, there is some serious RLM. Almost 60% of bets are on BAL but the line has gone from BAL -3 to BAL +2...
NY Jets at Buffalo(-1): Interesting game here. NY played spoiler last week handing the Steelers and upset and severely hurting their playoff chances. Buffalo is riding high with a guaranteed post season appearance this year, their first in a while. There are already rumors that the Bills won't play starters the whole game, and why would they? They are locked into the 5 spot in the AFC, no reason to risk injury to anyone. With another low projected total, I will probably ride dog or avoid this game all together.
Miami at New England (-16.5): Two very important factors in this game. One, its the Dolphins defense. Two, its the Patriots at home. End Analysis. .
Just kidding! That should be all we need to know, but just for the sake of depth, I will add a little more, haha. NE is playing for the number 2 seed in the playoffs and HFA in their first game. MIA with a loss and a NYG win would move up in the draft order. There is also some suprising RLM in this one. Almost 60% of the bets are on MIA +14.5 open, but the line is climbing to now 16.5. This feels like a classic Patriots 31-13 game with 2 or 3 picks, maybe a defensive score, and use of alllll the running backs. I struggle when taking Patriot props as they are so hard to predict who will get the usage on any given day. If you have a site that offers odds on a defensive score, I would take +odds in this context.
Green Bay at Detroit(+12): Well this is another playoff bound favorite vs. a team in rebuild looking at 2020. DET did get back Kerryon Johnson at RB. The dual threat of Johnson and Scarborough helped take some load off Blough and DET actually held the lead in the DEN game late. Unfortunately DET defense is still one of the worst and a quick 14 points from DEN took this game away. The first time these two played it was close in GB with DET leading the whole game...however, that game feels like a different season with the different paths these two teams have taken since that game. I expect GB to play starters the whole game and lock up a chance at higher seeding and possibly HFA.
LA Chargers at Kansas City(-9): Does KC want to play Baltimore first, or NE first? Essentially if they win this game they get NE and if they lose (and the Texans win) they would get BAL. I would assume they are not happy to play either but alas, the road to the SB leads through both for KC. This year, 11 out of 15 of the LAC games have been won or lost by 7 points or less. Unfortunately for LA, they are 2-9 in those games. This is actually a tough spread to cap. Anything over 7 feels so hard, I mean 11 out of 15... Ill probably be on KC ml in my parlays so I may throw a balance of LA in one.
Arizona at LA Rams(-6): Man, I was all over the Rams last Saturday, and a win by them would have kept their playoff chances alive and netted us a huge win on our free roll for that game. Sadly, they couldnt stop two third and longs. Now I sit here wondering if they are even going to get up for this game. AZ has been an underdog most of the year and as a team has put in good effort in most if not all their games. Drake has been an absolute beast since his trade from MIA. Im honestly not sure why this line is what it is. Maybe I am missing something, but it looks like there is a TON of value on AZ. Maybe even ML value.
Oakland at Denver(-3.5): So the Raiders still have a chance here. If both TEN and PIT lose and IND and OAK win...OAK is in. It's actually possible, especially if the Chargers an do something random against the Chiefs. For DEN, Lock coming in has been great for them. They are 3-1 since he was named starter and the only game they lost was against the Chiefs. A big key for me in this one is whether or not Josh Jacobs returns. If he does, OAK and the points looks juicy. If he does not, DEN seems primed to end the season on a Mile High Note. :P
San Francisco at Seattle(+3.5): They say save the best for last. A fight for their division title, and a chance for either team to take the one seed in the NFC and SF to have HFA throughout the playoffs. The first meeting between these two went down to the wire with SEA taking it on the road. Even with the injuries and new RBs, there has to be value on SEA at home getting more than a field goal.
Extra trends: The Seahawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog. San Francisco is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
Singles 133-138-3 (+15.17u)
I have a few more parlays and BBDLS that I put in but it's 11am and I am going to head to the Ocean Casino in AC to put in my last SBBDLS for the season. Will post in the comments when I get back if I find some prop lines before game time. Good luck to all! :D
Best Parlay Betting Sites 2019 . Operator. Bonus. Features. Claim Now. 1: 100% Match Up to $100 Daily Promotions FREE Bets: Bet Now 1XBet Sportsbook Review. 2 R1000 Daily Promotions FREE Bets: Bet Now Betway Sportsbook Review. 3: R25 Daily Promotions FREE Bets: Bet Now HollywoodBets Sportsbook Review This website caters to individuals who adore betting on favorites such as tennis, soccer, golf, hockey, baseball, football, and basketball. The sky is honestly the limit for fans who head over to BetOnline.ag these days. BetOnline can be a true haven for individuals who are searching for all of the best sports betting sites. Best Parlay Betting Odds & Sites. Parlay, also called multiple, bets are a great way to split your bets across varied outcomes. Bettors love these options because of the potential returns. If your first wager doesn’t pay out, your bet is lost. To explain, let’s say you were given the option to make separate bets on whether it will be cloudy today and whether it will rain today. In this circumstance, a parlay bet would be the best option. You’d either parlay both as yes or both as no. In sports betting, these types of opportunities exist, although their correlation may not be as intense. The best parlay betting sites offer all major sports like basketball, hockey, football and baseball. Convenient banking is an important part of reputable parlay betting sites. Members need to be able to make deposits easily to place parlay bets whenever desired, and cashout winning tickets without hassle.
[index]          
Baseball Betting: Parlays, Totals with Dave Cokin + Jim Feist, May 20, 2016 - Duration: 10:59. Jim Feist 5,542 views. 10:59. How to Win at Sports Betting! Is it even possible? Parlay betting is a nice way to both spice up your betting and extend your payouts. Learn how to place parlay bets and how to calculate the odds generated when you combine your bets. Parlay Betting Blackjack Session - $100 Buy In. In this video every hand won we increased our bet by one unit but still playing Basic Strategy. Part 1. We start with a bankroll of $100 at this ... Sports Betting Explained: Pros vs Joes (Sharp Sports Betting vs Square Sports Betting) - Duration: 8:21. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 44,751 views 8:21 Our mission is very simple. We strive to provide unbiased online sports betting sites reviews, strategy advice for new and seasoned bettors, cashout reports ...