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UFC 249 Corona Super Card preview and picks (Ferguson, Cejudo, Ngannou, Kattar Pettis, Jacare, Esparza, Werdum Mitchell, Luque, Spann)

This isn't meant to be some deep thought out technical analysis. I'm bored, and beyond hyped for the card. Most fight cards, there are a lot of fights I'm not sure who to pick. This card is an exception, so I thought I'd write this, kill some time and maybe someone will find it a good read. I got inspired by The Fite Sight! I try my best to talk a about both sides, but sometimes I just really see it for the other fighter and lazy to type more. If you want me to elaborate on a fight and talk more about a certain fighter, I'd be happy to.
Ferguson: I've picked Tony in every UFC fight including his TUF finale fight, so yes I got the MJ/Ferg fight wrong. I will keep picking Ferg. Everyone already knows the two ways this fight most likely plays out, Gaethje KOs him early in the fight or Ferguson gets the finish in the later rounds or wins a decision like against RDA where he never got rocked. I think there's a chance we see Tony fight a lot smarter than usual because he respects the power of Gaethje, as compared to Lando or Pettis (fights where he was in serious dangerous of getting finished).
Only time I won't pick Ferguson is when he fights Khabib. Khabib has been an easy pick in all his fights so far too, besides the Conor fight, which I thought was 50/50 sadly. It's similar to the Gaethje/Ferguson fight in that most people can only see two ways of how it ends.
Cejudo: Easy pick. Cejudo already knew he had a fight upcoming with Aldo, so his preparation is likely more optimal than Dom's. Cruz long layoff, and the striking in the division has moved past him. 2016 and before bantamweights are worse than the current Moraes, Cejudo, Yan, Sandhagen group. Cruz can grapple for extended periods if he chooses to like he did against Mighty Mouse. If he does, the size advantage could be significant, but with such a long lay off again (even longer than the previous 2 layoffs vs. Mizugaki and Dillashaw, and not coming off a loss). Cruz's legendary career is made off of beating overmatched wrestle-boxers (Faber) and flyweights (DJ, Jorgenson, Benavidez all future flyweights that were Dom's bantamweight title defences)
Ngannou: Only one person picking Ngannou on the Fight Site lol "I am going to take a flier here that Rozenstruik can emulate the Derrick Lewis gameplan to hilariously boring effect." Hop on that Rozenstruik underdog line if you believe them. +250 biggest underdog against Ngannou since Arlovski. "I have no faith in Ngannou to beat a fighter who’s durable enough (as he showed against Overeem) to maybe not just get killed early, and who can sit on the outside and peck like Lewis did." Trying to predict this fight based on Ngannou vs Lewis is retarded imo. I could be wrong, but that's my opposing opinion. Uhm Rozenstruik was getting taken down and laid on, not like he was getting outstrike bad and proved his durability like that. Plus that was a 5 round fight. Rozenstruik doesn't even get the chance to land that KO punch on Reem in a 3 rounder. Some echo chamber going on on that site (mostly Sriam and Danny, your friendly neighborhood no training armchair analysts).
I do not think this fight will be as bad as most on the fight site are expecting it to be. Must be that Black Beast PTSD. I take FranCis
Kattar: Easy pick. Matching up known/proven names against other known/proven/unproven names makes for much easier predictions, which doesn't mean I'll be right, just that I'm not on the fence about who to pick for most of the card. Kattar should be able to avoid Stephens' homerun KO attempts and pick him apart from the outside. Quick technical detail: the finish on Burgos, he used the bouncing TKD style foot work to close distance quickly and surprisingly. In that fight he hadn't done that til the round 3 TKO, so Kattar has a few different looks he can give. Burgos gets to be a warrior 10 years ago. I haven't seen Kattar vs Moicano. I also liked that Kattar shoots for takedowns even if he doesn't get them.

Prelims

Pettis: Super easy pick. I wanna believe in Cerrone making a comeback fighting like 6 times this year on Fight Island, but that's a pipe dream of sorts. Both guys have only been losing to top competition. Carlos Diego Ferreira wasn't ranked, but he is a motherfucker. Cerrone's beat Matt Brown at welterweight without needing to use the Body Shot Cheatcode, beating Hernandez and Iaquinta at LW. Pettis has the Wonderboy win at welterweight, he beat Chiesa at LW, almost finished Ferguson. Cerrone letting Pettis stay at range and get picked apart if not TKO'd again seems likely. That would be 4 straight TKO losses for Cowboy very sad or 3 straight for Pettis. Pettis showed me enough against CDF, that I think he still has Cowboy's number on the feet. I doubt Cerrone will wrestle much, or make that a focal part of his game plan we all know he like to bang. Even if he does, he's gonna let Pettis back up.
Jacare: First risky pick of the night in my opinion. The momentum is on Uriah Hall's side coming off a win over excellent grappler Shoeface, where Hall had to battle out of bad position a few times to get the 2 rounds to 1 win. Jacare is on a 2-3 run, but against Jan Blachowicz at LHW, super close toss up round fight with Gastelum, KO Weidman (in a fight Jacare was losing to be fair), killed Brunson again and losing as the favorite to Hermansson in a fairly grueling 5 round war. I like Jacare to avoid the KO shot, get the takedown and return to the MW top 10. Uriah has looked improved, but Shoeface still got his back multiple times and all of round 3. I think Jacare can get it done. He's old, but his performances aren't really showing it even in defeats. The level of competition is much higher for Jacare.
Esparza: Pretty easy pick. I expect Carla to take Michelle down throughout the fight and get a 29-28 type decision win. Michelle probably stands back up and gets taken down again or isn't able to do enough the rest of the round to win it.
Werdum: Easy pick. Can't pick Oleinik in this whatsoever. All the things he does well, Werdum does better. Long lay off for Werdum, but he was scheduled for a grappling match with champion of champions (for grappling) Gordon Ryan, so I don't think he will experience significant ring rust. But with also the 'Rona goin roun, who the fuck knows. HW MMA. Can't not take Werdum in a pick em though.

Early Prelims

Mitchell: I like Bryce Thug Nasty here. He impressed me a lot in his last fight, and not just with the twister. His transitions and fluidity on the ground before the Twister was beautiful. His opponent, Matt Sayles is no joke either, training under Dominick Cruz. Charles Rosa has an awkward, unconventional stand up game, but his grappling is his stronger suit. I honestly don't know for sure how they're jiu jitsu matches up. However, I like that Bryce is more of a top player than Rosa and can wrestle. Rosa has fallen short to some higher ranked future proven guys like Yair Rodriguez and Shane Burgos. We shall see if Bryce is on that level. Burgos and Yair both beat Rosa in their 2nd UFC fight. I think it is worth noting Rosa took 30 months off due to a serious neck injury (cries in Tatiana Suarez) before coming back and subbing Manny Bermudez in round 1. Bermudez who missed weight at featherweight, coming up from bantamweight. Bermudez got cut and moved up to lightweight. He missed weight for that lightweight fight too.
If Rosa wants to play on the bottom, I think Bryce will avoid the subs and win by decision. Rosa has had a Fight of the Night bonus in his 3 UFC defeats. He won a Performance bonus last time. Low key exciting fighter. BOSTON STRONG word life this is thuganomics. I also like that Bryce has been putting on more weight and working with collegiate wrestlers.
Luque: Yet another easy pick. Rematch stats also favor the previous winner. Niko Price fought patiently in the first fight before getting hurt with punches, then subbed. I think Price can do better than he did in the first fight, and the chaos/randomness he has brought against Neal, Means, Brown, Vick makes me a bit worried. Luque is coming off two very tough fights. But he doesn't strike me as someone that will be have a hard time coming off a loss.
Luque is the pick, but prop bet of "fight ends inside the distance" in a parlay I would feel a lot more comfortable with.
Spann: I don't love Spann here not at those odds. Pick em obvious choice. After what looked like a future journeyman career, Spann has rattled off 7 consecutive wins including two finishes in the UFC over Lil Nog and Devin Clark. Sam Alvey will most likely never be a top or even semi-top LHW but there was a time he had 3 consecutive TKOs in the UFC and another time he had 4 consecutive wins also in the UFC. He's on a 3 fight losing streak, lost to Lil Nog, who Spann beat, but I wouldn't be surprised if Spann looks terrible against Alvey. Though, Spann's defeats have aged well.
Alvey was the underdog in UFC wins over Marcin Prachnio (-280), Cezar Ferreira (-385) and Dylan Andrews (-192). This is the biggest favorite Alvey has fought in his UFC career so far.
And finally the one fight I didn't pick Hardy/de Castro: This is the only fight I feel tossing a coin would be about the same as my own pick. Both guys are above average strikers by HW MMA standards. Hardy shot in a couple of times against Volkov, and has gotten top position against others. Hardy was able to land a jab on Volkov of all people multiple times. I think De Castro is the more technical striker overall, likely been training way longer than Hardy. The sloppy slow strikes Hardy attempted vs. Crowder were non-existent vs. Volkov. He looks much improved and comfortable in there. If I knew Hardy would shoot for a takedown, I would pick him easily. Not enough info for me to make a pick here/I don't wanna watch De Castro's regional fights.
Obligatory Anything can happen disclaimer, I'm ready to be surprised
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Where Should You Play Poker?

Often overlooked, this fundamental question must be answered before you can pursue your dream of becoming a long-term successful poker player.
A poker players' decision as to where he/she is going to play poker is perhaps the most important decision affecting the players' enjoyment of the game and his/her bankroll. Generally speaking, a player has four possible venues to choose from, they are:
1) Online poker sites 2) Casinos/Local Poker Rooms 3) Home games with family & friends 4) Local Charity/Fund-raising tournaments
Each of these four venues has their own unique 'pros and cons' to be considered. One venue may be best for Player 'A', but not necessarily a good choice for Player 'B'. The correct venue is relative to your personality, bankroll, and skill level.
Lets' take a look at each of the four venues more closely, and discuss the characteristics of each. I will be speaking in broad generalities which are consistent wherever where you live, but you should realize geography plays an important role in venue selection. Gambling laws vary from one locale to another, so please research the laws in your area and play within those laws. With that caveat in place, lets' examine online poker first.
Online Poker
Without a doubt, online pokers' popularity has exploded in recent years; so much so, the Federal government has placed limits on the ability of US players to move money to and from the poker sites. These restraints pose a real problem for poker players, and several player associations are trying to fight these restrictions. The future of online poker laws is uncertain at this time. A full discussion of the legalities of online poker is beyond the scope of this article, but I encourage all poker players to do their research before you jump into online play.
Pros of Online Poker:
- The best thing about playing poker online is the ability to play from the comfort of your own home any time you wish. Sites such as Poker Stars, Full-Tilt, Ultimate Bet, etc. will literally have tens of thousands of eager players online 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Whenever you are ready to play, you will have no problem finding an available game.
- Online play allows the player to play a wide variety of games. If you would like to take a break from Texas Hold'em and have the urge to play Omaha, Stud, Razz, Horse, or virtually any other game you can think of, the online sites will accommodate you.
- Another benefit to playing online is that you can play any stakes you are comfortable with. If you are conservative, or just starting out, you can play for as little as a few pennies a hand. If you are looking for an adrenaline rush, you can play for as much as several thousands of dollars. The sites will offer a wide variety stakes in between these two extremes as well.
- Finally, because the online sites keep the games moving quickly, you can improve your game by playing a high volume of hands in a relatively short period of time. More experienced players may play multiple games at the same time. These players are seeing an extraordinary number of hands per hour.
Cons of Online Poker:
- Online poker can quickly become addictive. Online poker addiction can have severe negative consequences for the players' physical, emotional, professional, and financial well-being. An addicted player will often start staying up all night playing while ignoring his need for sleep. This may lead to emotional problems and ultimately lead to a strain on the players' home and professional life. A player must be vigilant to remember poker is not as important as family, friends, or your career away from poker.
- The online player may also become a victim of cheating while playing online. The poker sites try to catch cheaters through the use of sophisticated software that monitors play and looks for irregularities, and I believe they are partially successful in these efforts; however, it cannot be denied some cheating goes on without be caught. The problem for the individual poker player is that he can never be certain he is not being cheated. The poker world was a buzz last year when the media reported the scandal involving Ultimate Bet and Absolute Poker. Some cheating occurs between the players themselves when two or more players gang up on an unsuspecting player through the use of telephone communication while the hands are being played out. If your opponent has more information about the hole cards than you do, you are at a significant disadvantage.
- Because poker is played quickly online, the less skillful player will likely lose more of his bankroll online than if he played elsewhere. If a losing player plays more, he will naturally lose more over the long run.
Casino Poker
For this discussion, I will consider full service casinos (which you are likely to encounter in Las Vegas or Atlantic City) and local Poker Rooms (commonly found at Kennel Clubs, Horse Racetracks, or other Pari-Mutual facilities) to be one in the same. The size and degree of sophistication may be greater at a full service casino, but Poker Rooms have come far in recent years and can offer similar services to a poker player. Each facility provides the tables, chips, dealers, and pit bosses to manage play, and each provides a comfortable atmosphere for the players to enjoy. In exchange for providing these services, the 'house' will rake the pots or charge you an hourly fee to play (more on this later).
Pros of Casino Poker:
- Casinos/Poker Rooms typically do a good job at offering the player a comfortable environment to play. As more and more card rooms spring up, they realize they must compete for your business; therefore, you are likely to be treated well because the casino would like you to become a regular player at their facility.
- A player can be relatively confident the games will be run by professionals. The entire staff from the dealers to drink servers know their jobs (and their tips) depend on providing the players with excellent service.
- Casinos and card rooms are generally conveniently located within a community, and they are open 12 or more hours a day seven days a week. On short notice, a player can head off to the casino and expect to find plenty of action. Texas Hold'em is king at casinos, but other games are offered when enough players are available to fill a table.
Cons of Casino Poker
- Playing at a casino can be an expensive experience. A casino has considerable expenses, and must recoup these expenses through a 'rake'. Some card rooms charge an hourly fee to play, say $10-12 per hour per seat. Others will take a percentage of each pot, or a percentage of the total tournament entry fees. A house rake of 10-20% is not unusual and must be overcome to be a long-term winner. A player must also be mindful that good etiquette dictates the player should tip the dealers and servers for the service they provide. These tips will add to the cost of playing at a casino.
- Another pitfall to playing at a poker room is that you may be the victim of a couple of 'regulars' who team up to soak the new fish that sits down at their table. Players can communicate their holdings through subtle hand signals which puts the unsuspecting player at a disadvantage.
Home Poker Games
Every night in America there are thousands of home poker games underway between families and friends. Poker requires very few supplies to host a game, and these items are readily available through many internet sites. You can start playing at the kitchen table and eventually move up to a true poker table complete with drink holders, padded rails, and a felt playing surface. The next thing you will need is a good case of poker chips, a 500 count set of 11.5 gram (or higher) chips will be adequate for up to 9 players. The final and most important item you need for the home poker game is a setup (two decks) of 100% plastic playing cards. Expect to invest between $15-25 per setup for quality cards.
Pros of Home Poker Games
- The one big advantage home poker has over venues of play is that you can pick and choose the players you play with. Typically, a group of 3 or 4 hard core players will decide to start a home game and they will invite their friends and family to play. This selection process nearly assures a group of players that get along well with each other. Chances of a loud or obnoxious player being invited to the game are minimal. The more harmonious the game is, the more you will enjoy playing there.
- A home game fosters social networking which may lead to new professional relationships as well. You may make a helpful contact with a lawyer, accountant, contractor, etc. through poker.
- Home games are great opportunities for husbands and wives, fathers and sons, etc. to share some quality time while playing poker.
- Generally speaking, little (if any) 'rake' is taken from a home game which means the money stays where it belongs, with the players!
Cons of Home Poker Games
- Do not fool yourself, organizing and hosting a home game can be a lot of work. If you are the host, you must be prepared to make calls, provide a place to park and play, provide the snacks and drinks, as well as the cleanup afterwords.
- A potential problem with home game poker is that in some localities, it may be against the law to wager money while playing. You must research and abide by the laws in your community.
- In a worst case scenario, a disagreement make break out in the card game which ultimately leads to a dissolved friendship or hurt feelings. All the players must be respectful of each other and sensitive to each others needs.
Charity/Fund Raising Poker
- In these turbulent economic times, some well known charitable organizations have turned to hosting poker tournaments to bring in much needed funds. Some private schools are even hosting poker games to supplement their scholarship funds. A poker player can give back to his community by supporting these events.
Pros of Charity/Fund Raising Poker
- Charity tournaments can be great social events which bring together large number of poker layers to support the cause. Somehow, it is more palatable to pay an 'entry fee' than it is to write a donation check!
- The skill level of the players that show up to these events is poor. Playing good poker is secondary in the minds of many players to having a good time while supporting a good cause. This mentality presents an opportunity for the skillful player to "clean up' at the expense of the social players. Depending on the size of the tournaments, the payouts can be significant. You may be able to parlay a $60 entry fee into a $1,000 pay day for winning.
Cons of Charity/Fund raising Poker
- The biggest problem with these type of poker games is the lack of professional management by the event organizers. A serious player can quickly become irritated when a tournament starts a half hour late, or he gets seated at a table with an inexperienced dealer, etc. Violations of the rules and etiquette of the game are commonplace at fund raisers.
- The 'rake' can be quite high at these events. Remember, the primary reason the charity organization hosting the game in the first place is their desire to raise money. A rake of 25-40% is not unusual at these games which is unacceptably high to a player trying to boost his bankroll.
- A word of caution regarding the legality of these games, the charities often believe they are immune from compliance with local laws regarding gambling, but the sheriff does not always agree! Do your homework before deciding to play in fund raisers so you can make an informed decision.
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Top Home Based Business Ideas - Ten Of Them!

So you have decided to take the plunge a home-based business. Good for you! It will be nice to be able to wake up every day, grab a cup of coffee and walk into your office. No more rush hour, no more cubicle, and a chance to make it on your own. Sounds great doesn't it? But there is one small snag before you can open shop. You need to know just what sort of business you should be running.
There are a myriad of opportunities for your small business requiring very little initial investment. If you are stumped for business ideas, here are ten quick ideas for you to consider.
Branch Out From Your Current Job
If you are already a professional, but want to get out on your own, this is often the best way to go. Architects, air conditioning repairmen, computer professionals, and plumbers are all in demand. You simply need to start up your own little section of these burgeoning fields. All it takes is the required tools and a willingness to put your name out there. Advertise in the paper, on the Internet, and in the yellow pages. If you are a landscape designer, you probably have a drafting board already. If you are a motorcycle mechanic, it is a safe bet that you already have the tools you need. Make them go to work for you in your own business.
Handyman/Home Repair
If you enjoy fixing things around the house, you can easily parlay this into self-employment. Not everybody knows how to patch drywall, grout a ceramic floor, or install a new countertop. Chances are, most people don't even want to know. However, people do want these things done. And you are just the person to do it.
If you have worked on houses before, now is your chance to make it pay off. Advertise your reasonably priced services in the newspaper and the yellow pages and people will call. The best part is that, when you have done a great job at a good price, your customers will refer you to their friends. Word of mouth is very big for those who work on houses.
Landscaping
You already own a lawn mower. You have a hedge trimmer and an edger. You have a large collection of lawn and garden bags. You have a pickup truck that can haul them around. And you like fresh air, sunshine, and working in the yard. Well, now you can get plenty of all three.
In case you hadn't noticed, there are many people who do not enjoy mowing their lawns. Make their day by offering your services to them. Do some market research and figure out how much you should charge for your services. Get some quotes for your yard from other landscape companies. Figure out the area of your yard and translate that into the price you should charge. Then, you are ready to start. Put fliers on the neighborhood door handles and wait for the calls.
Computer Consultant
In case you have been in, say, a small plastic bubble on the bottom of the ocean for the last fifteen years or so, you may want to know that computer work is in high demand. For all the talk of the dot-com bust, the shrinking technology sector and outsourcing, computer professionals are in high demand. If you know how to program, how to repair or upgrade a PC, or how to configure a network, you can turn your knowledge into your own home-based business.
As well, web site design is an exciting opportunity for those with little programming experience, but loads of experience with the graphic arts. All you need to do is learn the very simple HTML formatting language and study other web sites for their design ideas. Languages such as PHP, ASP, Java, and JavaScript would be useful, but they are not necessary for a great deal of web design work.
Fixing/Restoring It
You already get a kick out of repairing electronics, refinishing furniture, or rebuilding Chevy small-block engines. You have all the tools that any good repairman would own. You can turn your hobby into money by starting your own small business.
There are a lot of people out there who want their toasters fixed, their vintage record player working again, or their car's body repaired for a decent price. If you can do any of these things, you can put yourself on the map with an ad in the paper and the yellow pages.
By working out of your home, you can keep your overhead down and your profit high. Be careful though. If you are doing something such as automotive repair, your neighbors won't be happy if there is a line-up of wrecked cars in your driveway. Check your zoning codes on work of this nature.
However, if you are working on smaller items, even appliances, you can easily do this work without the neighbors being too much the wiser. So start advertising and make your small business go!
Giving Lessons/Tutoring
If you have a special skill, such as playing the piano, playing tennis, dancing, or sewing, you can give lessons from your home. There are plenty of boys and girls, and even adults, who want to learn to swim, type, or speak Spanish. So translate your abilities into some dinero. You have skills that other people want to learn. They are a great place to start a home-based business.
Likewise, if you are a former teacher who wants to see the faces of young students again, tutoring may be a rewarding pastime. If you can, and if you are allowed, talk to your former teaching colleagues to see if they have any students who are interested in receiving extra tutoring.
Cleaning/Maid Service
Another option for a home-based business is a cleaning service. You already clean your own home, why not help somebody else with theirs? With a few of those household cleaners and chemicals, you can start up a nice little income. You need to be thorough, detailed, and willing to scrub everything to a shine. But with some effort, time, and patience this business opportunity can quickly pay dividends.
Arts & Crafts
If you happen to enjoy candle-making, soap-making, or designing teddy bears and decorative hats, you can make start up a small business selling your creations. Be prepared, this will probably not start out and be very lucrative. However, with some time and patience and a few church sales and flea market visits, your skills will improve, your eye for the market will sharpen and you can sell many of your original designs. The work can be fun, and some extra money won't hurt either.
Artistic Pursuits/Graphic Design
Another business opportunity that may take your fancy is in the pursuit of the arts. Whether you happen to paint, perform graphic design, take photographs, illustrate, or write calligraphy, you can start a business that caters to the needs of those who want something not merely done, but done prettily. Wedding invitations require a calligrapher and photographers. Books need illustrators. Businesses need logos that are attractive to the eye. Living rooms can be livened up with a painting. You can use your special, unusual skills and turn a leisurely pursuit into a home-based business.
Communications/Writing
If you happen to enjoy writing, you can turn your writing and proofreading skills into your own cottage industry. Perhaps you can start writing articles and send them to the magazines you enjoy. Or you can spend your time translating foreign language texts. As well, good proofreaders, book indexers, and researchers are needed by both writers and publishing companies.
Sell your skills in these areas to people who need this sort of work done. As well, if you are a writer, you may even want to sell your typing prowess to those folks out there who can't bang out 40-80 words a minute at the keyboard. Perhaps the local high school or university could bring some business your way.
These are just a few of the business opportunities available to those who wish to work from home. In fact, the possibilities are almost endless. You can get tons more information from our website.
You could buy and sell antiques, provide day care to working mothers, or a dog kennel for people who travel. You could sell house-painting services, wedding cakes, patent searching, permit filing, and event planning. The possibilities are endless.
Find the home-based business that is right for you and you will find that it can be both rewarding a lucrative. See what people need, what people want, and what they are willing to pay for it. Then, the rest is up to you! http://forexmarket.site/news-66-network-marketing-why.html
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CDL Atlanta Homestand Predictions & Bets

Welcome to Atlanta where the players play....
We finally have a new season beginning and with a couple of events/matches for each team on the books some more data to base some bets off of :). As last year, I will be basing my odds and bets off of what Bovada is listing them out as, but feel free to utilize other resources or sites for references. Without further ado, lets dive into our initial matches taking place at the Atlanta Homestand Group Play...

Match #1: MIN vs. Paris
This is a little bit of a tough match-up here with the limited sample sizes that we do have of each team, but do think there is enough to make some decisions on. MIN could be a dark-horse to come out of Group B alongside Huntsmen, but that would mean they would have to defeat Paris & Huntsmen. Not impossible, but do not think it is likely. Bovada has Paris listed at -165, which I think is a good value and a bet I am willing to make. Will be taking Paris ML (1u) here. If you are not confident in the Paris ML action, could lean towards MIN +1.5 (-180), as this could be a Game 5 series.

Match #2: London vs. FL
Florida Mutineers are another scrappy team, similar to that of MIN. After Launch Weekend and seeing the perseverance that both FL and MIN showcased, they will without a doubt spoil someone's homestand runs this year. However, I do not think it happens here against a stronger London Royal Ravens team. Best bet here is to take London ML at -185 (1u). I think this is a little riskier than the Paris ML bet (above) and could be passed over if you wish. Like I mentioned, FL is a scrappy team, London is coming off a disppointing loss in their homestand and could very well be a trap game. However, I think London is a little bit more on top of their game, won't underestimate FL, and will win this series; especially if they win first map.

Match #3: Chicago vs. Toronto
Chicago wins 3-0 is my guess. No real value here on ML or even Spread, as Bovada has this listed as a 2.5 spread - something I have not seen in the last year plus. This match-up is about as guaranteed of a 3-0 as I have seen on paper, but taking the 2.5 is risky; even in favor of TOR. Avoid this game, as there is no real value here.

Match #4: Atlanta vs. LA OpTic
This is a very similar match-up to that of Chicago vs. Toronto; there is no real value and the spread bet on this one is also 2.5, according to Bovada. Strongly suggest avoiding singularly betting on this match. I say singularly because we can work this in a nice Parlay with a decent odds payout with Chicago and Paris ML bets.

Futures/Overall Winner:
No surprise here that ATL is the biggest favorite to win their own Homestand at -190 on Bovada. The next 2 favorites are Chicago at +275 and Paris at +1000. I like spreading the love here on all 3 with a "to win" 1unit on ATL, bet .65 units on Chicago, and then .35 on Paris.

Bet Summary:
Paris ML -165 (1u)
London ML -185 (1u)
ML Parlay Atlanta, Chicago, London (1u) -133
ML Parlay Atlanta, Chicago, Paris (1u) -120
ATL to win -195 (1u)
Chicago to win +275 (.65u)
Paris to win +1000 (.35u)

*All bets are to win 1u, unless they are underdogs...in that case the bets will be placed based on unit value that you are using
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Betting Sites › Best Online Betting Sites in India (Feb 2020)

Internet wagering is at present legitimate in practically all over India. These wagering destinations offer an assortment of sports to draw in players of India to exploit a few extraordinary offers and great returns. Wagering is progressively respected in India. With an ever increasing number of internet wagering destinations hoping to take advantage of the gainful Indian market, it very well may be trying to pick between them. We should investigate how to locate the best wagering destinations.
1-Betway
Betway is one of the most well known destinations. Betway is offering a thorough and monstrous scope of sports and markets. Additionally, their advancements and prizes for existing client continue moving week to week. They don't stop here. Betway incorporates probably the most exciting gambling club games, and they offer top quality rewards and store strategies which suits you.
2-Guts
The guts site is reasonable for live wagering. Guts begin working in 2013, and it was at first planned towards gambling club and gaming. In any case, inside a year they propelled their online sportsbook for clients. Guts sportsbook was fundamentally about football. Yet, presently they are offering a lot of significant games like football, tennis and cricket. You can guarantee their welcome reward by experiencing the prize area, and you can likewise recover your cash a sportsbook reward.
3-Ladbrokes
Ladbrokes is one of the notable high road name from British wagering history. They began their tasks in 18 century and their organizer Harry Ogden is perceived at the UK's first expert bookmaker. They began their web based wagering in 2000. You can get extraordinary North America sports inclusion alongside everything from Aussies Rules to Chess, Golf, MMA, Volleyball and pretty much everything in the middle of, just as pony dashing.
4-Moplay
Moplay is an online bookmaker which is concentrating on the portable parts of betting. Moplay started working in 2018. Pre-organize markets were in abundance additionally in examining around at different games like football, tennis and cricket. They do offer moment money out on sure decisions.
5-Boylesports
Boylesports is one of the solid free bookmaker brand subsidized in 1989 in Ireland. They have a major web business just as web based wagering administration. The edge is to some degree higher on soccer, around 6% yet the rest of the sportsbook is trading with a great deal of lower betting edge, particularly tennis which is essentially roughly 3.1%.
6-Sportingbet
Sportingbet started working in 1998. They have presented their administrations across 26 nations around the world. Sportingbet is clear in working since they are offering straight forward wagering administration for their clients.
7-Fortuna
It is an online bookmaker that underpins client showcase from India. This bookmaker permits secure route framework for better client experience for its clients. This site is an enrolled one, so it is ok for bettors to play their chances helpfully. They offer an assortment of choices like live wagering, club games betting and chances wagering. In any case, the new clients are given with 100% reward on making their first store.
8-William Hill
It is a notable brand far and wide. William slope was established in 1934. They have a fabulous inclusion of live football matches and different games. Their bet slip is splendid as well, allowing you full usefulness in controlling your wagering alternatives. You can make installment and withdrawal through various techniques.
9-Betvictor
Betvictor began its capacities during the 1940s. Through quality organizations, they have grown an enormous nearness in the online business. Betvictor isn't constrained to sports wagering, and they are likewise running some non-sports markets. They have entirely broad sportsbook which incorporates rugby, snooker, volleyball, cricket and darts.
10-22bet
22bet was set up in2017. Their sportsbook is an incredible fascination towards clients. Football, cricket, golf and tennis are the principle zones to take a gander at. 22bet is exceptionally liberal when discussing welcome rewards. Their clients must be 18+ to enroll themselves.
11-Paddy Power
Paddy Power is one of the most famous brands which is perceived all around the globe. They began their administrations in 1988 when three Irish bookmakers met up. There is a gigantic mean acknowledge in the Paddy Power sportsbook.
12-Unibet
Unibet is one of the well known brands in Europe and India. It was established in 1997. Their sportsbook spread tennis, football, b-ball just as chess, futsal, floor ball, bandy and surfing. They likewise offer a cash back reward for new clients. They offer a gigantic scope of wagering markets.
Unibet is probably the most seasoned game bookmaker around the world, set up in 1997, serving a large number of web based wagering account holders. It is notable all over Europe for its superb games wagering, online gambling club and poker stages.
13-Betfred
Betfred is a British bookmaker. They offer their administrations for India also. Betting power licenses them. The Betfred Empire starts working in 1967. They are offering a noteworthy edge on football wagering. You can either utilize their versatile application or site to make the most of their administrations.
14-888sport
It is an European based wagering stage which acknowledges the clients of India also. It is one of the perceived brands in odd markets. They are covering numerous games like rugby, soccer, cricket, tennis, horse dashing golf, boxing cycling and numerous others. You can make the most of their liberal invite offers.
15-Coral
When discussing Indian bookmakers, Coral is among the primary names you can consider. Coral was established during the 1920s, and it is one of the most well known brands when talking about excellent items and offers. They show top European nearby soccer with stunning highlights. Numerous different games have been presented, including football classes.
16-Royal Panda
Illustrious Panda is a worldwide stage which is offering their administrations all around India. They are advancing on the web gambling clubs, not the sportsbook. You can utilize their versatile application and site to make the most of their inventive rewards. It is one of the strictest betting locales. They are offering a wide scope of wagering markets. They are covering circuitous 40 games and a lot of classes.
17-Smarkets
Smarkets is an online stage which was established by a little gathering of speculator. They are acclaimed for their propelled exchanging stage and 25th quickest developed organization in Europe. Smarkets is exceptionally simple to utilize. They are sans offering wagers for their new clients and welcome rewards. Their essential center is noteworthy games like football tennis, golf, baseball and cricket.
18-Leovegas
It gives a gigantic portable wagering experience. Leovegas assumes an indispensable job in Indian wagering site. As we enter the landing page of Leovegas India, the primary thing we see slider is a slider in the focal point of the screen, publicizing for the most well known games and advancements here on Leovegas. Leovegas offers a clean and userfriendly stage.
19-10cric
As an ever increasing number of wagering locales are beginning to focus on the imperative Indian market, it is turning into somewhat hard for players to choose which spot is most appropriate for them. One of the most common issues is by all accounts how to get to these sites
20-Bet365
Bet365 is celebrated for being one of the greatest and best-wagering locales on the planet. Be that as it may, what makes Bet365 great? That response to this inquiry is that Bet365 has taken the internet wagering industry to an uncommon new level. They give the best betting involvement with all territories. They have the most gigantic assortment of gambling club games and sports wagering. They offer the best portable wagering experience, the best reward on wagering and simply the most amazing live betting experience generally.
Be that as it may, the point which makes Bet365 the world's greatest wagering site is the notoriety for unwavering quality that they have worked for themselves in years. Bet365 is a wagering site you can trust. They generally pay what they owe, and they put incredible significance on their notoriety is the thing that makes Bet365 a genuinely extraordinary bookmaker.
21-Sportsbet.io
Sportsbet.io is a worldwide games wagering organization that was established by individuals with an energy for sports. When you enter the site of Sportsbet.io, you get the inclination that this whole site is committed to sports wagering. It doesn't have the equivalent lavish impression that you jump on an old wagering site like Unibet or Betway. It's more Spartan and old school.
Then again, this isn't really an awful thing. They don't attempt to push ads or advancements at all of you an opportunity to achieve client's consideration. It's an entirely reliable spot for individuals who simply need to put down wagers and not need to stress over something over the top.
22-Bodog
Bodog is an old wagering bookmaker really among the most seasoned on the planet which has as of late opened up and began tolerating Indians players.
They have set up the procedure of the wagering site principally to serve bettors from India, where they endeavor an assortment of live cricket wagering alternatives, give helpful choices of storing cash and permit Indian money.
On the off chance that you appreciate sports wagering and club games or poker sitting, at that point you will in all likelihood appreciate Bodog India.
Bodog begins from Europe, yet it has an Indian site that is customized to suit the flavor of Indian players. Consequently it is of nothing unexpected to discover that the Bodog India Sports wagering is wealthy in cricket wagering.
The sportsbook incorporates all the noteworthy universal cricket competitions and arrangement, just as the well known classes like the Indian Premier League and the huge slam group Australia.
23-1XBET
1XBET Bookmaker is a youthful and quickly developing wagering site. Established in 2007, earlier it worked distinctly in the region, with more than 1,000 wagering bookmakers in Russia, and later started the experience in the online market. 1XBET is viewed as the main global bookmaker, in India the genuine speculators know it for quite a while in light of the fact that he underpins Indian rupee (INR) and has a Hindi language Version.
1XBET is mainstream for Indian expert punters, yet before long will be known in each edge of India, for the straightforward reasons that its installments segment is adjustable. So you can pick INDIA (from the rundown of nations) and see the techniques for stores and pulls back are accessible, obviously, don't missing Neteller and skrill all simple and clear.
24-BET WINNER
On the off chance that you are searching for a bookmaker that gives the best chances on the most famous games, the Betwinner might be the wagering site you are searching for.
Wager victor is a moderately new wagering site, however they have just become famous as the spot to be with regards to finding the best chances.
Wager victor is a moderately ongoing theorist that start its tasks in 2016 in the wake of accomplishing an administration permit from (Curaçao eGaming) for working on the web. Betb2b.com fabricated this site, and it is a similar program that is adding to 1xBET (acclaimed administrator of Russia) since 2007.
25-COME ON
Regardless of whether it is their online club activity or their games extend, COMEON India perseveres freely from others, through their broad inclusion and activities. They spread 29 classes of sports and offer a few other elective markets. This sportsbook underpins practically all standard installment designs and gives an incredible reward to new clients.
When you join as a part, you get an invite reward, and you can pick the alternative for the prize that you like. You can store cash once you sign in to your record by essentially tapping on the decision of store. ComeOn India offers the accompanying choices to store your cash
MasterCard
Visa Card
Paysafe Card
Skrill
Neteller
MuchBetter and the sky is the limit from there
26-Pinnacle
This is something we appreciate prescribe when you are simply beginning on another game. Start by playing for no particular reason, and once you've seen that you can bring in cash at this game, at that point toss in some genuine and unique rupees.
Genuine wagering is a zenith with brilliant highlights and extraordinary advancements
At Pinnacle, we know about definitely what Indian players search for in an amazing on the web gambling club. That is the reason we've accumulated a breathtaking mix of the most reliable online gambling club clubs around. Additionally, determinations of incredible table games don't stop there and make your life agreeable and simple we likewise offer a colossal assortment of store strategies for Indians gambling club players.
27-MELBet
Our consideration is currently redirected to the focal point of the screen where we see an advancement slider. It is where Unibet features all the present advancements that they are running. They are very brave advancements going on, which we will investigate later. One thing we notice is that all the costs are named in euros.
Beside the live wagering segment, we notice a catch named "supertoto'", and we choose to look at it. It ends up being another uncommon capacity, which is truly remarkable when contrasted with Unibet. Supertoto is a basic method to put down a wager on sports. The objective is to wagered on the result of whatever number matches as could be expected under the circumstances. You can wager on a success, lose or draw.
28-Matchbook
Matchbook offers a total sportsbook with in excess of 40 distinct games classifications to bet on, including cricket, football, tennis, horse dashing and practically all the famous games, just as e-sports, expert wrestling and different less normal games. You have a decision of live wagering on each live match that is occurring right now, and numerous competitions can even be live-spilled with liberated from cost office. The main standard is that you include put down a wager inside the most recent 24 hours. That gives you full access to the live spilling capacity.
29-Betfair
Betfair is one of the world's biggest global online games wagering specialist co-ops. Betfair has more than 2,000 utilizes around the world. Betfair holds betting permit in Malta, Gibraltar Italy, Tasmania and the United States. Betfair is promising in conveying exclusive expectations of respectability and has ensured more than 40 Memoranda of Understanding with the administering groups of sports.
Betfair is the most significant wagering bookmaker on the planet, offering a wide scope of wagering items including exotics wagering markets and extraordinary games, huge poker networks, arcade games and a gambling club.
30-Dafabet
Something that make Dafabet one of a kind is that they were made to serve the Asian market. All things considered, we can see that they are doing a great deal to interest Asian players, and particularly Indian players. For instance, we realize that they acknowledge Indian cash stores. They additionally offer loads of well known Indian games, for example, cricket, tennis and kabaddi. As an Indian player, it is pleasant to feel like you are esteemed as a client. There is likewise a lot of European games and well known Asian games and gambling club games accessible.
31-Rizk
It is an energizing and one of a kind internet betting webpage having a place with the European island naming Malta. The site is special it might be said that it depends on a superhuman topic which is an uncommon thing we have seen on some other wagering site previously. This current bookmaker's appeal is a hero naming Captain Rizk, and his topic can be discovered everywhere throughout the site.
32-Meridian BET
Meridian Bet is a main worldwide supplier of on the web and land-based games wagering arrangements with 700+ wagering shops in 35 nations around four landmasses? Their most noteworthy accomplishment is the steady income development pace of 20% over the most recent three years. They likewise offer an every minute of every day client assistance by means of live talk, telephone, email or informal community.
33-SBOBET
Inside an incredibly solemn methodology towards security and visitor administration, SBOBET is a main web based gaming brand. They have won the Asian Operator of the year grant for 2009-10. SBOBET offers you a quick and secure player condition with prompt winning outcomes, fast installments and simple access to nonstop web based wagering.
34-Winamax
This webpage is among the world's biggest online poker rooms and sports wagering destinations offering phenomenal chances to its players. Its immense number of enlisted genuine cash players has surpassed 3,000,000. This site gives dependable gaming instruments to make poker protected and a good time for the players.
35-5DIMES
This site is known to be the highest quality level in internet gaming. It offers on the web and via telephone wagers for open parlays. Owning the business for over 15 years adds to unwavering quality. This site gives the player's cashback rewards, diminished juice wagers, free play remunerates and significantly more.
36-ADJARABET
Situated in Georgia, this organization is the main site in the nation. Players can play gambling club games on the web or entertain themselves with sports wagering at this bookmaker website.
37-Planetwin365
Planetwin365 is Europe's quickest developing wagering and gaming administrators. This site is working with a large number of subsidiary accomplices over the world. More than one million wagers are handled day by day, and it additionally supplies in excess of 1300 retail outlets. The brand planetwin 365 is claimed by the SKS365 gathering of organizations which holds online licenses alongside land-based licenses from seven nations in Europe.
38-Red Sport
Red game is a worldwide games betting organization. It started to include in sports sponsorship in 2010. This organization is among the first non-US online games wagering organizations working in the United States. It is additionally an individual from ESSA, which is the European wagering uprightness body.
39-Cloud wager
Cloud wager directs the wagering business through a chain of authorized shops that are situated in Ireland and the UK. It offers online games wagering, online club and poker, online bingo and numerous other web based games.
40-POKER SPORTS
Once in the past known as Party Bets, is presently possessed by one of the biggest poker locales on the net, Party Poker. Authorized from both Gibraltar and UK, the site offers a wide scope of sports and great client care. To stall out in, the site gives a broad scope of games. Customers are very much provided food for, and every single significant game occasions are secured. Football is the most mainstream and secured sport by a wide margin, as the site is an European confronting bookmaker.
41-SPORTSPESA
Sportspesa, a games news innovation, was established in 2014, offering web based games and lotteries. It is a games news innovation with around 500 workers and has put resources into the advancement of the nearby games groups and competitions in Tanzania and Kenya. It works in relationship with TGP in the UK.
42-NOVIBET
Claimed by Logflex MT constrained, NOVIBET.com is a completely enlisted web based betting site. Playing with Novibet isn't simply fun however is sheltered and secure on the grounds that it holds licenses from MGA, which make the site obliged to keep all customers assets in trust accounts. The site offers a dependable gaming strategy and is focused on limiting the unfavorable impacts of issue betting and is resolved to advance positive betting practices.
43-BETPAWA
Offering different sorts of bettings on numerous games from over the world, BETPAWA is the most present day and quick wagering site in Zambia. This site is a creative bookmaker that offers the most reduced value wagers. It leads a wide assortment of pre-coordinate and in-play wagers on football alongside different games like b-ball, tennis and so on. You can choose from an immense scope of wagers on the site and can likewise decide on live wagering.
44-MISLI
As a piece of Fold gadgets gaming and distributing, MISLI was established in 2009. This site is situated in Istanbul. MISLI is a participation based site which offers online games wagering and lotteries. This site offers wagers on an assortment of games, particularly supporting soccer. It likewise gives the clients to play the national lottery. This site as of now utilizes 36 innovations. MISLI.com has been positioned 12,027 among the worldwide sites dependent on the huge number of its month to month guests surpassing 4,115,485.
45-Sky BET
Sky wagering and gaming, a British based Canadian organization, has offered a wagering division as Sky Bet. It possesses 1,628 representatives and is evaluated sixth among the ten highest contenders. This organization is the world's driving internet gaming and wagering organization which has the most noteworthy number of clients than any other person. Lion's share of the tasks of Sky Bet are led from Leeds. They offer to wager through their site, phone or portable applications and so forth. AGCC licenses the organization. Sky Bet likewise had a TV channel on Sky Channel 864 which quit working on February 2012.
46-Bet SAFE
With regards to online club and wagering, and Bet Safe is a rumored name. This website is a bookmaker and online gambling club which was established in 2006 and is possessed by a notable Swedish organization. 400 fifty thousand clients profit the ideas from 100 distinct nations around the globe. The dependability and unwavering quality of the site are apparent by the tremendous number of clients it possesses. Wager Safe is an easy to understand site offering an enormous assortment of games and items. It gives an astounding client assistance program and its simple to store and pull back cash. This site gives its clients the best web based gaming experience.
47-1xBit
This site offer betting stage for Bitcoin and digital money was established in 2016. Wagers are offered day by day more than 1000 games. Live online club games and in excess of 3000 openings are likewise accessible. A selective element is that it gives its games too. All client accounts bolster numerous monetary forms, and it empowers the players to wager utilizing in excess of ten cryptographic forms of money. Clients are additionally offered an assortment of rewards. A 100% first store reward is the most extreme preferred position. A bug assists with multiplying and right away pull back the main store reserves. Client's perspectives recommend that their client care is dependable and accommodating. It is being seen as the best reserving site for crypto. It offers high chances to the players when contrasted with comparable sportsbooks.
48-Mozzart BET
Since 2000, Mozzart has been a specific piece of the gaming business. This organization offers around 10,000 chances day by day for around 500 games. As of late, Mozzart has led its ground activity with more than 900 retailer shops and has seen a high development rate in its online administrations. One ought to be over 18 to wager on the site Mozzartbet.com. BCLB has given the permit to the site. Live wagering on games is offered including football, ball, tennis and other critical occasions. You can observe live spilling of your preferred round and put down online wagers.
49-Boyle SPORT
Ireland biggest and free bookmaker is known as BoyleSports. They contribute in the online space by adding the top of the line applications to the google play store which offer web based wagering, club, gaming, wagering and lottery administrations. By 2004, they had 77 shops, and in 2006 they opened their 100th store.
50-BetChris
In 2019, BetChris declared to enter the United Kingdom retail advertise with the popular bookmaker Gilbert. The organization's activity was extended in Northern Ireland which made the nation Ireland's biggest retail bookmaker.
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A Terrific Market of sports betting Toto site

A Terrific Market of sports betting Toto site
There are various people that surmise on significant games conditions. Toto site sports wagering is generally anticipating and wagering within the games shutting benefits. Numerous individuals around the world bet right now. Prior, wagering was finished on the web once the on-line computer game was occurring. When utilizing development of mechanical advancement, individuals found a good pace sitting while seeing note pad PC or workstation or PC inside the straightforwardness of their home. This kind of wagering is logically pleasantly preferred one of various betters because of generally excellent components that this products. There are really countless sites work by PC application that advance games wagering keep on the web. You can get more on 먹튀검증 toto site safety playground from azplayers.com, best site for it.
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CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 11 (Sunday Games)

CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 11 (Sunday Games)

https://preview.redd.it/b88yp5srv9z31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=40ca6e2ece3b36c915e55bf033c2c18ebab3ff4f
Thursday Night Recap
Singles: 2-2 (-0.02u) Soooo close! Personally I think the OBJ conspiracy was real. He had 10 targets (the most) and almost scored the first TD on their first drive. Not only did his TD get reviewed and overturned but soon after, Juju was taken out of the game. On to the next one!
Parlay: 0-0 (0u) None
BBDLS: 0-0 (0u) Nothing of note here. We put in a free bet and it is still live, but there are much harder games to clear on this one. Lets ride the wave!
SBBDLS: 0-0 (0u) None
Teasers: 0-0 (0u) None

Sunday Games

Dallas @ Detroit (-7): This weeks games opens up with a 1pm slate of games that are dooseys. Almost every one of these games feels like the favorite should win but they all have a reasonable percentage of underdog upsets. With Stafford playing the algo predicts this one 27-24 Dallas. But with no Stafford this game is going to rely on the Lions D and their backup QB. The Lions run d allows 4.6 ypc (22nd) and 130 ypg (26th). While their pass D averages giving up 272 ypg (27th) and a 100 passer rating (23rd). The Cowboys passing offense is 3rd in ypg, 4th in ypc, and 1st in ypa 1st. Last week Zeek had a horrible game vs min going 20 rushes for only 47 yards at 2.4 ypc... but he is still top 10 in rush yards with 78 per game. Some interesting stats to go with the Dallas run game:
  • Dallas has just five losses since Ezekiel Elliott entered the NFL three years ago in games in which Zeke rushes for at least 100 yards. The Cowboys are 4-1 this year when the former Ohio State star reaches triple-digits on the ground.
  • The Cowboys have covered 10 of their past 14 games after totaling fewer than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
As for important injuries: Just three teams have allowed more passes of 20-plus yards this season than the Lions. Darius Slay should draw the assignment on Cooper, but the Lions are severely short-handed at safety with Tracy Walker out and Will Harris questionable with a groin injury. Backup right tackle Tyrell Crosby will be starting for the Lions and they may be without one of their best run defenders, Da’Shawn Han. In terms of props the model is looking at JD Mckissic receptions. Last game with Driskle starting he had 7 targets and 6 receptions. It appears Driskle likes to check down to him for safety.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+5): Just as the Dallas game, this game looks like it should be a win for the favorite just based upon the offense for the favorite vs the defense of the dog. However, there are definitely scenarios that have Tampa Bay coming away with an upset. The algo has this one as NO -2. Curiously it look-ahead around -7 and has moved down to settle in around 5. This is probably due to the fact the Saints were embarrassed last week by the Falcons. They came out of the bye with 0 energy and the Falcons took advantage. TB was able to pull through last week despite losing the turnover battle and trailing in the fourth. Tampa Bay's ability to protect the ball on offense and force a turnover on defense will be the key for a victory. "They’re 2-12 in games with 0 takeaways. When they force a takeaway, they’re 22-27. When they record exactly one takeaway, they’re 5-16. When they record exactly two, they’re 5-10. Three, as it turns out, is the magic number. When they record at least three, they’re 12-1. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, New Orleans almost never commits three turnovers in a game. In fact, the Saints haven’t done so since 2017, and they haven’t committed two in any game this season." Uncharacteristically, Brees was sacked 6 times last week. Now he is going against Shaquile Barret this week who has 11.5 sacks (1st). The Saints do have Kamara back, but the TB rush D is tops allowing only 78 ypg (1st) and 3.4 ypc (3rd). Brees will likely look to the air as Thomas is on fire, averaging over 100 ypg, and the Tampa Bay pass D ranks bottom of the league giving up an average 299 ypg (league worst) and an average 100 passer rating (24th). In terms of injuries, almost everyone is a go. The only notable injury is Saints Marshon Lattimore. He has been ruled out and this should really add to the TB abuse of the deep ball. The algo does favor the Saints to win, but I don't think I can lay the points on this one.
Fun Fact: NFC South foes Tampa Bay and New Orleans have split their annual series every season since Jameis Winston entered the NFL. NO won the first meeting.

Atlanta at Carolina (-5): My algo has this coming out at Carolina -7. I understand the movement as Atlanta got a huge upset last Sunday and Carolina lost by 2 inches. Before we jump into the stats, I think the most important information for this game is Carolina’s starting tackles, Dennis Daley and Greg Little are both questionable for the game. If they play, I see Kyle Allen having time to throw, CMC having holes to run through, and little resistance from an ATL secondary that ranks near the bottom in everything. However, if those tackles are out, ATL may be able to repeat last weeks performance (6 sacks and 11 QB hits) and give themselves opportunity at another big divisional upset. Other injuries to note: The Falcons will be without tight end Austin Hooper, their receptions (56) and receiving touchdown (six) leader who is out with an MCL sprain. The Panthers will be without defensive back Ross Cockrell (quad), who has played a big role in a variety of positions in the secondary. But, for the Panthers, cornerback James Bradberry back. I am leaning towards Carolina here and while the focus will be on CMC, I think the edge can be found with the WR's in this one.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-2.5): Whoa. Two completely different QBs than the previous week for both teams. It looks as if Brissett is back for the Colts, and after 9 weeks with no BDN, Nick Foals returns. My algo has this game at 22-22 with some HFA to be added in for Indy. This looks like what Vegas got too because they made the spread -3 (hfa on a pk) and the total around 44. Looks like they don't know how to handle the QB change and decided to let the market dictate the price. The Jags are coming off a bye and see the return of wide receiver Dede Westbrook (neck), cornerback D.J. Hayden (neck) and linebacker Quincy Williams (hamstring). Both teams have rush defenses that rank in the bottom of the league, but on the flip side, both teams have rushing offenses that are pretty good. With Jax having the clear edge here. A key stat to note for the Jax rush defense is they are 4-0 when holding opponents under 100 yards rushing...but they are 0-5 when they dont. Without TY Hilton again this week to help stretch the field, I feel like JAX will be able to stack the box and keep the rush yards for IND to a minimum.

Denver at Minnesota (-10): This is another game where I dont think Vegas knows how to cap it. My algo came out with 15-25 MIN. They Vegas spread is -10 with a total of 40. It seems they know the public will like MIN just seeing them come off a win on prime time. As you have probably guessed, my gut leans DEN as I took them on Thursday in my BBDLS parlay. Let's look into the game to see what else is going on. First, we see Denver coming off a bye. Yet another QB named with the last name Allen hopped into the NFL, replacing the injured Joe Flacco and he was 12-of-20 passing for 193 yards and two touchdowns while beating the Cleveland Browns in his first career start. Then, he went into a bye week, giving him double time to get in sync with the plays and the receivers. You know what, there are stats that say the Vikings offense is legit, and the Broncos D is legit. They both have decent running games and run defenses. I'd say the key here is if Min can pressure the young QB. If they can...its a wrap. If they can't? I see Denver with an easy cover and possibly an upset.
NY Jets at Washington (-2.5) This is a curious coin flip of two bottom of the barrel teams this year. The Jets are coming of a win and the Redskins are coming off a bye. This feels like an under game. My algo has this at 20-20 but there is no adjustment for Haskins yet. He has had an extra week to prepare, but the Redskins tend to rely on AP to generate some running game. He will be going against a Jets run D that is L.E.G.I.T. giving up only 3ypc (best in the league) and 82 ypg (2nd). The Redskins run game will an added boost in Guice who will be returning. Honestly, all the numbers lean Jets favor. However... everywhere I look 70-75% of the bets are on the Jets...and the number keeps pushing in their favor. This is usually a big red flag to take the opposite of the majority!

Buffalo at Miami (+6.5): My algo has this 22-20 Buffalo. This is an interesting rematch of a divisional battle. This time though Frank Gore will be returning home to battle his old team in front of his family. Also Jordan Phillips, Bills defensive tackle is returning to where he was originally drafted. He is having a monster year, so watch out! Looking at the Bills offense, it has been pretty mediocre. However, it will be facing a Dolphins defense that ranks bottom in almost everything. ( 31st in points allowed, 29th in total yards, and 30th in sacks per attempt ) Im sure the Bills would like to see their RBs get it going in this match up, but the MIA run d hasn't been that bad. If you take out the games against Baltimore and Dallas (they gave up 500 rush yards in those two combined) then they only averaging giving up 116 per game. If they can hold Buffalo under 100 yards, the potential for an upset exists. The Bills have only ONE win in the 14 games where they failed to rush for at least 100 yards since Sean McDermott took over as coach. They had only 84 last week in Cleveland.

Houston at Baltimore (-4.5): Oooo, this is probably going to be my favorite game of the 1pms. I rarely watch the games, but I am excited to see these teams match up. My algo has this game Bal -4.5. Lining right up with the Vegas spread. Will Fuller has been ruled out for HOU. I dont have analysis for this because Baltimore should be leading in most if not all categories. But I am going to give my gut play here and its ride with the Texans. No analysis, just gut.

Arizona at San Fransico (-9.5) Another divisional rematch. This one is interesting because it has seen a pretty big line movement. It opened in most places as high as -14. But has moved to settle around 9.5/10. My algo actually has this as SF -12.5, however that doesn't account for any injuries...of which the 49ers seem to have in spades. The Niners will be without running back Matt Breida, Joe Staley, and kicker Robbie Gould. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair has been ruled out as he has not cleared the concussion protocol. Defensive lineman D.J. Jones has a groin injury that will sideline him this week. Emmanuel Sanders is hurt but looks to play and Kittle is listed as doubtful but who knows, we saw him dominate the last game vs AZ after his knee got reversed. Honestly, almost every article I read said the same thing. 49ers are mad injured, played 5 quarters on Monday and lost, and now play a divisional opponent on a short week that they only beat by 3 points just 2 weeks ago, bet the Cards to cover and possibly upset. That was my original train of thought too. Then I looked at the public betting percentages. Everywhere you look, 2 out of 3 spread tickets are on the Cards with some places over 70%. Yet the line has had a ton of trouble breaking 10 and with all that love for AZ you'd think it would drop to 7.5/8.5. Because of this, it appears the edge may actually be with the home team to win a blowout. Should be interesting to see what happens!

New England @ Philadelphia (+4.5): An interesting match up here. My algo has this 24-21 NE. Both teams are coming off a bye with limited injuries. The Pats will be without safety Chung, and the Eagles will be without darren sproles, alshon jeffery and deshean jackson. Jordan Mathews is questionable, but Ajayi was signed his week to help with RB depth. What makes this pick really hard is even with all these injuries to the Eagles and Bellichek's after a bye win percentage, AND 80% of the picks being on NE...the line has only moved a point, a point and a half a most. How big are the bets on the Eagles right now to keep the line from ballooning? The Eagles run d is legit, but their secondary is still crap. The Pats D was exposed last week but that was vs an MVP caliber QB lead offense. How has this line not moved?! I want to bet the Pats so bad, but there is this thread pulling at me to take the Eagles. Choose with care here boys.

Cincinatti @ Oakland (-11.5): There isn't much to say here. Cincy is winless and starting a backup QB that was destroyed last week. Oakland has some energy. They fought through a grueling road schedule and now get some rest at home. But, 11.5 points for an OAK team this year just seems like too much. And 11.5 for a cincy team with a back up QB on the road when he just lost by 40 at home...cant do it. The algo has this 24-18 OAK but thats not adjusted for the new QB. Honestly I dont have an adjustment for him because I dont know who he is! I am riding OAK to win in some parlays but points are tough. Knock on wood if you're with me. :D

Chicago @ LA Rams(-6): Last game of the day. Prime time NFC match up. While both of these teams are technically still live for a wild card spot, I don't think either will realistically make it. The Rams have a shot if they can win here AND win vs Dallas and Seattle but honestly I dont see that happening this year. Crazy enough, my algo has this game 21-20 Bears... I think if Montgomery is a go for CHI this game is much tighter. But if he sits, I dont see the offense for the Bears having as much rhythm.

Monday Night

Kansas City vs LA Chargers (+4): I dont normally add the Monday game into these write ups, but since I will have this team in my parlays and teasers, I decided to add it. I am betting this for only one piece of info I heard. (My algo actually likes the opposite side here) This game is in Mexico City. The elevation there is higher than Denver. The Chargers spent all week practicing in Denver to get their bodies acclimated to the elevation. Kansas City has stayed home. With as bad as the KC defense is, the elevation factor, and 4 points...I will be siding with old man Rivers to 2nd half comeback and cover. (and possibly win!)

Note: We have approx 17u in Bonus money from Refer-A-Friend Bonus. Also, Borgata Sportsbook emailed me this week and offered me 10u in free bets just because I made an account there a year ago and never played. Unlike alllll the other sites in NJ, it does have a rollover. It is 6x, so I will use these free bets on only parlays that way if I hit one, I will have extra funds to hit the rollover without playing it for many weeks.
Going really basic this week. Mostly spreads.
Singles 73-72-2 (+26.78u)
  • DAL -7 (1.15u to win 1u)
  • TB +5 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • JAX +2.5 (1.06u to win 1u)
  • DEN +10.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • Hou ml (1.3u to win 2.5u)
  • SF -10 ( (1.1u to win 1u)
  • Josh Jacobs +125 Rush yards (0u to win 4u)
  • CHI +6 Both Chi and LAC I will wait till closer to game time. I feel like both spreads might get the extra half point at some point throughout the day.
  • LAC +4
Parlays: 4-8 (+40.45u)
  • JAX +3.5, Dal -2.5, SF -2.5 OAK -2, LAC +4 (0u to win 35.7u)
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-7 (-6.47u)
  • CLE ml, JAX ml, DEN ml, CAR ml, MIA ml, OAK ml, LAC ml, CHI ml (0u to win 2077u) OOOO baby, what are we thinking here? :D
  • DAL ml, NO ml, DEN +10.5, HOU +4.5, JAX +2.5, SF ml, OAK ml, CHI +6.5, LAC +4.5 (0u to win 160u)
  • DAL ml, WAS ml, DEN +10.5, HOU +4.5, TB +5.5, JAX +2.5, SF ml, OAK ml, CHI +6.5, LAC +4.5 (0u to win 376.6u)
  • Jax +3.5, Den +10.5, NYJ +2.5, HOU +4.5, NO -5.5, DAL -6.5, SF -11.5, PHL +3.5, CIN +10.5, CHI +6.5, LA +4.5 (0u to win 1046.3u)
  • DEN +4.5, BUF -12.5, JAX -5.5, DAL -14.5, CHI -2.5 (0u to win 348.9u)
  • CAR ml, JAX ml, MIA ml, DEN ml, NYJ ml, HOU ml, DAL -6.5, PHL ml, OAK ml, CHI ml, LAC ml (0u to win 14185u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-6 (-3u)
  • Its 11 am now, Im going to go to the Ocean Casino @ 12 and put one of these in. As usual, if it make it past the early games, I will post a pic for the sweat!
Teasers: 6-15 (-21.3u)
  • Its 11 am now, Im going to go to the Ocean Casino @ 12 and put one of these in. As usual, if it make it past the early games, I will post a pic for the sweat!
Futures
  • NE, GB, CLE, NYG all to win their Division (0u to win 257.8u) This is a Free bet (last one for DK, it was close to expiring)
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CreateYoureReality NFL Week 4 Analysis and Picks (Sunday Games)

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 4 Analysis and Picks (Sunday Games)

https://preview.redd.it/b7coyep2lfp31.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=13b079f1149378af1c3dd8df983e1ca8364cb296
Last Week:
  • Singles: 8-7-1 [+1.55u] (0-3 in free bets for 0u change)
  • Parlays: 0-0 [0u]
  • Teasers: 2-2 [-1u] (\**Missed the big teaser at the casino by AZ +8.5 for an 88u win*****)*
Notes: Overall, a good opening week for us. The algo is still low on data so betting an early week and getting a win is a nice confidence boost that the algo is on track. Missed that AZ game out of hubris. Just saw Cam ruled out and Kyler Murray putting up fights and just rolled with it with little research. My error. I am grateful it happened early in the season so I can correct it. Outside of that, really happy with the outcome of the Eagles game. Lets move on to week 4!

Early Games (1pm)

Carolina @ Houston (-4): Well, my recent fuck up is the best place to start. :D Carolina looked like a real football team last week. I don't know yet if it was the QB change, or the fact that they played in a dome against a bottom of the league team, but there will be no more sleeping on Kyle Allen. Let the data collection begin! So far all we have is the game last week, and his start in week 17 last year. With this he is 2-0 and has thrown 6 TDs 0 Ints. Looks pretty good, but we cant just mentally give him Cam's job until we see how he handles adversity in difficult match ups once other teams have more film on him. But, as long as he keeps up a solid game managing TD to INT ratio, his stout pass D and above average running game should give him many opportunities to win in his next few starts. Houston came through for us last week with a road dog money line upset of the Chargers. They had to grind it out with rivers going 5-15 on 3rd downs and throwing 46 times but both sides of the ball did their job. This should turn out to be a good defensive battle. I would look for a lot of Sacks in this game as both teams like to send pressure. As long as their aren't a ton of D/ST scores, this looks to play to the under. ***Interesting note: Panthers DE Bruce Irvin will make his season debut Sunday after missing the first three games with a hamstring injury**.** \***

Cleveland @ Baltimore(-7): Our first divisional match up of the day. Both are coming off losses. Cleveland on prime time to an undefeated Rams team and Baltimore to an undefeated Chiefs team. No real injuries to note. These teams seem to have opposite identities at the moment. Cleveland has a pretty decent D, even with some minor injuries, but their offense has struggled to find rhythm. Baltimore has a pretty legit offense, but their D isn't the same as we are used to. I mean, with a Baltimore D of old, this team taking early leads would be unstoppable. But they let Kyler Murray come in and stay within a TD. Personally, I hope Baltimore SMOKEs Cleveland. I want them to take a division lead, get the public against Cleveland. Then watch Cleveland go 1-2 in October with a Loss, Win, Loss. Then they will be 2-5 overall and hopefully we will get GREAT odds on them to win the division. Then they win out the year with a laughable schedule and go 11-5 and 5-1 in the division. That's the plan! :D

Washington @ New York Giants (-3): Another divisional match up. This one with probably zero playoff implications. Barring Danny Dimes somehow being the next Mahommes and scoring 30 points a game, I cant see how this game matters to the league this year. Even IF double D scored 30 points a game, the Giants D is bad enough they still might lose those games. Washington is 0-3. They were just obliterated by the Bears on MNF last week. Keenum had like 12 INTs? This is going to be a battle of spirit IMO. The spirit of desperation by the Redskins vs. the new kid on the block in NY playing his first home game as a regular season starter. I like the way DD came out and handled the pressure. He even did it with Barkley going down (now out 4-6 weeks). But I dont like how bad the Giants secondary is. I think there is a better chance of Keenum making up for his performance last week by coming out strong against this Giants D, than there is of DD carrying the team to another win off pure Spirit. But spirit is a powerful thing! If there was no spread, i would have to side with the Giants...but give me 3 points in what I think is an evenly bad match up? It may swing me to the road dog. For now though, I dont see much edge on the spread and will probably just observe. HOWEVER! I did like how DD and Evan Ingram were in sync. Ingram is +200 to get a 100yd game and he is already 2 for 3 this year. Also, the over is getting bet hard so I look for opportunities for him.

L.A. Chargers @ Miami(+14.5): Well, well, well. One of my favorite spots in the NFL. A West Coast team traveling to the far East Coast to play a 1pm game. The Chargers are coming off a tough home loss to the Texans last week. The algo predicted it, which was nice for us, but the chargers lead for a good while, so I am sure it was even more stingy of a loss. Now they travel all the way to Miami to play a team with probably the worst 3 game start in NFL history. However. TWO things for me in this game. One: Rozen isn't bad. He played well, but his receivers currently drop more balls than they catch. He gave them a chance to take the lead near the end of the 1st half vs. Dallas. They faded in the second half, but they came out strong. Two: If you followed me last year, you will know I love betting against the west coast team in the first quartehalf when they are traveling east for a 1pm game. Their brains think its 10am and they are just a step slower to start the game. On the chargers side of the ball, Melvin Gordon has ended his holdout. He won't play this game, but is expected to play week 5. Austin Eckler will probably be taking his last shot as a starter for a while. I expect him to run with purpose. He also has the opportunity to do it against a Miami D that, well, I don't think I need to say more. :P

Oakland @ Indy(-7): Oakland opened the season strong with a win against Denver but has since suffered back to back crushing losses to playoff teams. Indy is 2-1 but could just as easily be 0-3. Brissett is managing and the Indy D is pretty legit. TY Hilton is doubtful for this game. Darren Waller is just 8 receptions away from beating Antonio Gates for the best 4 game start for a TE in NFL history. This feels like an Indy win, OAK cover type spot but I wouldn't sleep on OAK to get a potential upset.

Kansas City @ Detroit(+6.5/7/7.5): Both teams are undefeated with DET blowing an easy game against Arizona to give up a tie. All three of the NJ sites i frequent have a different line. I am finding this game one of the more difficult to judge. My gut instinct says Patty cakes is out there baking cakes. But I can't understand why there is enough favor on the DET side to keep this game from moving up to -8. I mean, so far over 80% of the spread tickets are on KC. Usually that should call for some more balance. But there was a lot of trouble pushing it through the key number of 7 so that has me weary of the spread. My spot for a bet? Travis Kelce has games of 88, 107, and 89 yards recieving this year. His O/U is 82.5 in a game that has a very high points total. I feel like he is almost always good for a 20yrd reception so really I am looking at a number closer to 65.


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New England @ Buffalo (+7): Dildo Time. Two 3-0 teams face for a KEY Divisional match up. It's safe to say there is a very strong chance both of these teams go 4-0 against the other 2 teams in the division. If Buffalo can steal away an early divisional game, they could really give themselves hope and excitement. Unfortunately for them they are facing the Patriots who's defense has yet to give up a TD against opposing offenses and a Patriots offense that is demolishing teams so far. I know the Bills are 3-0 and I normally loooove home dogs, but I just cant take the points here. To be honest, I can see another dildo game. HUGE expectations on the Bills, Brady comes in a wrecks them, dildos everywhere. Here's a tweet that has me thinking for dildos.
https://twitter.com/ChrisBrownBills/status/1177315496183631873?s=20

Tennessee @ Atlanta (-3.5): The final game of the 1pm slate. The Titans are what they have been in previous years. Inconsistent. They opened the season with a fantastic road win against the hyped Browns. Then lost a close Divisional game to the Colts before following that up with another Divisional loss vs. the Mustache. Atlanta has followed the same pattern of inconsistency of wins by getting blown out in their opener and upsetting the Eagles in game 2 and throwing away an opportunity to beat the Colts in week 3 by giving up an early lead and throwing a Key pick that could have given them a shot at a win. There are two things in this game that will have me side with the road dog. One: The Falcons lost S Keanu Neal. Two: The Titans have had a few extra days to prepare since their last game was a Thursday game.

Afternoon Games (4pm)

Seattle @ Arizona (+5/5.5): Both spreads are available to me, so its just a matter of if I like SEA or AZ. Seattle is coming off a disappointing home loss to the Brees-less Saints and sits at 2-1. Arizona is 0-3. Russel Wilson played spectacularly, but the Saints D/ST won the game for them building an early lead. Seattle tried to battle back and put up a valiant effort but fell short on time. Arizona looked like they could compete in weeks 1 and 2, but in week 3 lost a home game to a win-less team with a backup QB. There are some for sure props to look at in this game IMO. Cardinals are horrible against TEs giving up 131 and TD, 112 and a TD, and 75 and 2TDs. TE Will Dissly receptions and yards have progressed as follows: 1rec-12yds-0tds, 5rec-50yds-2tds, 6rec-62yds-1td. I think he is becoming a key target for Rus this year. They have also been burned by Stafford for 22yds rushing and Jackson for 120 rushing. I like Russ to have many opportunities to get his.
Tampa Bay @ LA Rams (-9): The Bucs are 1-2 coming off a disappointing last second missed 34 yard field goal to give DD his first win in his first start. The Rams are 3-0 coming off beating the Browns. I mean TB has a decent pass rush with Barrett, but their secondary is pretty bad, allowing the Giants to come back and win that game. I think this is a perfect opportunity for the Rams to get rolling on offense. I see them putting up base 27. So the question is, can the Bucs keep up to cover the spread and combined with that, can the Rams hold off garbage time points?

Minnesota @ Chicago (-1.5): A HUGE divisional game with both teams needing the win having lost to Green Bay already. Minn is coming off a home game whooping of the Raiders while the Bears are coming off a road win whooping of the Redskins. Both teams have top ranked Ds and meh Os with the edge going to the Bears and the Vikings, respectively. I feel like this is going to be a heavy defensive game. Cook should finally be held under 100 yards rushing.

Jacksonville @ Denver(-2.5/3): Jacksonville is coming off a win and some extra rest. Denver is still waiting for its first sack, and its first win. On the flip side, Jacksonville recorded NINE sacks last week. This game looks like it is shaping up to be just like the Jax/Hou game. Low scoring. This game might be a candidate to tease Jax up and the Under. As for props, DJ Chark has a TD in every game this season. If he gets one in Denver, he breaks the franchise record. Even thought its predicted a very low scoring game, I like that he is getting 2.6 to 1 to do so!

Night Game(8:20pm)

Dallas @ New Orleans(+2.5,3): This is one of the hardest games for me. The Cowboys are 3-0 and looking good. But they did it against mediocre competition. The saints are Brees-less but are coming off a great D/ST performance and a game managed win for Bridgewater. Though the Saints have complained about bad calls a decent amount and they are the Third most penalized team this year so far, they do have a favorable crew tonight. "The crew working Sunday's game is led by official Carl Cheffers. Cheffers has been a crew chief since 2008, and, according to Payton, has worked 13 Saints games since 2006. The Saints record over that time with this crew: 12-1. " My gut tells me, if Brees didn't get hurt and the Saints entered this game 3-0 with Brees, the spread would be somewhere between Saints -3 and Saints -6.5. Is Brees going down worth a 6-9 point shift? Probably not. Given Bridgewater has a decent record and he's not the only QB for the Saints. Honestly, how is the over getting so much action?! Both teams have legit Defenses. These two played last year with Brees and it was a heavy under hit. That game Kamara and Ingram got nowhere and Dak and Dallas could throw the ball but they had trouble converting in the Red Zone. If a similar game script happens I could see Dallas having the edge this time given they have an added red zone threat in Jason Witton, and the Saints are without Brees. If you're going to bet this game, definitely shop for your number!


Singles: 8-7-1 [+1.55u]
  • Evan Ingram 100+ Rec Yds (1.6u to win 3u)
  • Miami 1Q +3.5(2.3u to win 2u)
  • Austin Eckler 75+ Rus Yds (2.1u to win 2u)
  • Austin Eckler 125+ Rus Yds (.5u to win 2.13u)
  • Darren Waller 6.5 Reception Over (2.06u to win 2.53u)
  • Tyrell Williams to score a TD (.5u to win 1u)
  • Travis Kelce 82.5 Rec Yds (2.22u to win 2u)
  • New England -7 (2u to win 2u)
  • Buf/NE Will there be a Defensive TD YES (.5u to win 1.8u)
  • Tenn +3.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • Russel Wilson 20.5 Yds Rush OVER (4.44u to win 4u)
  • Will Dissly 3.5 Receptions OVER (4.29u to win 3u)
  • Will Dissly 45.5 Yds OVER (2.22u to win 2u)
  • Chris Carson 65.5 Yds Rush OVER (.56u to win .5u)
  • Russel Wilson to score the first TD (.5u to win 11u)
  • D.J. Chark to Score a TD (0u to win 5.2u) Draftkings FreeBet

Parlays: 0-0 [0u] \**I recently received a 10u free bet on Draftkings NJ. All of these parlays are free bets****
  • Eagles +4, Kansas City ml, Baltimore ml, Rams ml, Patriots ml, Cowboys ml, Bengals +4 (0u to win 32.9u) My early week safe parlay (most scared of cowboys and bengals)
  • Eagles ml, Rams ml, Texans ml, Giants ml, Chiefs ml, Bills 1Q ml, Raiders ml (0u to win 218.1u) My early week gamble parlay (most scared of Giants and Raiders)
  • Titans ml, Rams ml, Pats ml, Dolphins 1Q +3.5, Kelce 82.5 Yds Over, Engram 5.5 Rec Over, Dissly 3.5 Rec Over, Waller 6.5 Rec Over, Chark 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 298.6u) For fun, mix and match with props, favorites, and underdogs.

Teasers: 2-2 [-1u ]
  • I made a teaser but I have to take it into the Ocean tomorrow to place it. I will post it in the comments after I see if there are any scratches.

Thanks for reading. Good Luck to everyone! :D
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CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 8 (Sunday Games)

CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 8 (Sunday Games)
https://preview.redd.it/6z3pm7zaa3v31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c0b4ba60258e70d1ea5457bcd2111b890f81fa60
Hi all! We have a wonderful Sunday slate ahead, first lets recap TNF.
Singles: 3-0 (+9.78u)
Parlay: 0-2 (-2u)
BBDLS: none
Teasers: none
Notes: This was an amazing little set for us. We were able to go 3-0 and cash in on the Cook to score the first TD @ over +300. I added in those two late parlays with Washington either winning or covering 4.5. Honestly, even after watching the game, I still think plays on WAS were profitable. Before Keenum went down, WAS had a real shot in that game. On to this Sundays games!

Early Games (1pm)

New York @ Detroit (-6/6.5): To start the day, we have a battle of two sub .500 teams. The Giants are coming off a heart breaker (at least to me, haha) They allowed the Cardinals to come in and deliver an upset victory even though the Giants were coming off increased rest and had some key players returning. Detroit's season so far has been surrounded in a cloud of shit. Maybe the first game of the season should have been an indicator of how their season will play out. Look really good coming out of the gate, but overall fail to live up to the start. They will look to halt their recent stumbles against a Giants offence that has 18 turnovers (worst in the league!). On the flip side, the Giants will probably look to use the return of Saquan to exploit the Lions rush D that gives up an average 4.8 ypc (26th) and 140 ypg on ground (28th). Some notable injuries include: Sterling Shepherd is still out for the Giants, and Kerryon Johnson is out for the Lions after injuring his knee in the game last week against the Vikings. Another notable piece missing will be Quandre Diggs. The lions traded him to Seattle this week in exchange for a 2020 fifth-round pick. This game is going to be about the start. My algo is favoring DET by a TD, but DET hasn't beaten anyone yet by more than 3 points and with their recent struggles and poor run D... NY has the potential to get a lead and lean on their run game, I think a pure upset is possible here. Golden Tate is returning to Detroit and has been a steady look for Jones since his insertion into the Lions offense with a steady increase in targets. (week 5 (6) week 6 (9) week 7 (11))

Tampa Bay @ Tennessee (-2.5): Here we have the well rested Bucs coming off of a loss in London and then a bye week. While the Titans have had a small roller coaster over the last few weeks. They were sliding and ultimately replaced Mariota with Ryan Tannehill. The change of QB ignited a boost from the offense (putting up 400 last week) that was previously lacking in a downfield attack. Other than the Bucs missing TE OJ Howard, there aren't any serious, notable injuries. So, Tennessee does have Derrick Henry...but, the Bucs have a The BEST run D, giving up only 2.9 ypc and 68 ypg (1st in both!) However, the Bucs pass D is atrocious and overall the Bucs have given up 30+ points in EVERY game this year except one. Emotionally it feels like the Titans should be riding high. The change of QB sparked the offense, and the Titans D has made THREE goal line stands this year, in the final minute of games, for wins each time. The Titans D is also sporting a very respectable 16 ppg given up to opposing offense. (good for 4th in the league) The Algo has TB -1 here so its a very curious spread. Usually in these low spread coin flip spots I either stay away or play both sides in separate plays. Looking props, I would look to Cory Davis and AJ Brown (WRs for TEN) who with the QB change went for a combined 12 catches for 144 yards off only 15 targets last game...and this game they are facing the TB secondary that is giving up over 300 ypg in the air.

L.A. Chargers @ Chicago (-3.5/-4): Here we have a classic battle of two teams who preseason were favorites to make the playoffs. Now, less than halfway through the season, it looks as if both teams will be looking ahead to next year. The Chargers are coming off a really tough loss to the Titans last week where it looked like the Chargers scored 3 times to win the game, but none of the attempts ended up counting. The Bears are coming off a blowout loss to the Saints (who were somehow underdogs even though they have been dominant) The Bears offense just doesn't have it. Mitch looks great when the opposing D drops into prevent and gives him time to find open guys...but other than that, he is really struggling. First let's look at notable injuries:
LAC: Melvin Ingram (hamstring) is expected to return after missing the last three games and (LT) Russell Okung (pulmonary embolism) will make his season debut after experiencing major health issues during the off season.
CHI: Chicago CB Sherrick McManis (concussion) likely will miss the game after being injured against the Saints.
Alright, so if Mitch is going to get back on track and show his owners he deserves to stay on this team, the Chargers D is a good spot for him to do it. The Charges D is near the bottom in almost everything [Comp % (32nd), QBR (28th), YPA (29th)]. They only give up 216 ypg in the air., but that's only vs 185 attempts (3rd fewest in the league). On the other side, the Bears D is still pretty good in every category. They only falter in one, Completion Percentage (69%) which is 27th in the league.
In props we are looking at both RBs for this game. Last week Eckler went: 7 rec, 118 yds and a TD and is tied for 3rd most receptions in the NFL! To add to that, the Bears have given up the 5th most yards to receiving backs. On the other side we have Cohen who gets a ton of opportunity for receptions.
Note: Sooo, an interesting stat I came across: Betting the Chargers on the road vs. a team with a better win, would have you sitting at % 22-4 ATS, and if you had teased them you would be 26-0. This is the Chargers over the last 5 years

Seattle @ Atlanta (+7): Soo, it is currently 2:30 pm on Saturday and as I am writing this, most of the online books here in NJ took this game down. The line was originally floating around 3.5/4, now it is only available at 7 on two sites. I am assuming this is because ATL activated their QB3 indicating Ryan has a great chance of being inactive. In injury news: "
The Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant will miss his third straight game with a toe injury. Rookie Kendall Sheffield will get the start in Trufant’s place. The Falcons will also be without guard James Carpenter (knee) and running back Ito Smith, who is in concussion protocol.
For Seattle, defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson (oblique) and safety Delano Hill (elbow) have been declared out. The problem for the Seahawks is that they have six players listed as questionable, including recent acquire, Quandre Diggs.
Lets start with the obvious, the Falcons D. Atlanta run D is actually pretty good, holding opposing RBs to under 4 ypc and 70 ypg. But, their secondary is trash, bottom of the league in almost everything: QBR 31st, ypg 28th, comp % 29th. The Seattle D is not the defense of old. They average giving up 25 ppg and 360 ypg. However, they are top 10 in takeaways this year with 12 and the ATL offense has 12 turnovers already. On the other side, even with losing to Baltimore last week, SEA O ranks in the top 10 in: qbr 2nd, ypg 10th, comp % 8th, and ypa. Going against that ATL D, the edge definitely sits with SEA. In props, the look is on Austin Hooper. He has had minimum 4 receptions per game, is averaging over 7, and should get an increase in his looks with ATL trading away their WR2 in Sanu.

Denver @ Indianapolis (-4.5/-5): This is one of the most curious lines to me. The algo has the Colts at only -4. Public perception should have the colts at -7/7.5. Yet the line opened at 5, briefly moved up to 5.5 and has been slowly falling to 4.5. I feel like the Colts should rock this game, but the lines are red flagging me otherwise. Lets jump into the numbers. Other than Carl Davis, there are no real injuries to note. In terms of sacks, Brissett has been sacked only 7 times this year, while Flacco has been sacked a whopping 23 times! Even with the recent loss to the Chiefs, the Bronco's D is pretty stout, giving up only the 5th best passer rating and they are 3rd in pass ypg and 3rd in ypa giving up less than 200 pass ypg. The Indy D ranks 19th in rush yards allowed per game, 26th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric and 28th and 30th in tackling and run defense respectively according to Pro Football Focus. But, the Bronco's offense sucks ranking 29th in ppg and 25th in ypg. Likely to give them less of an offensive threat is the trade of Emanuel Sanders to the 49ers. If I am going props in this game it would have to be Lindsey(Indy rush D is not that good) or Sutton (he is already the number 1, and the number 2 was traded away this week)
Every time I review this game, the logic tells me that Indy should win and keep the train rolling. But something inside keeps screaming take Denver. Probably nothing, but Im gonna note it :P

NY Jets @ Jacksonville (-6/-6.5/-7): A lot of lines available for this one, which is funny to me...as you'll see, I and my algo both favor the Jets. The Jets are coming off a sha-lacking vs. the Patriots where they were completely shut down. Jacksonville is coming off a 10 point win, but the game was much closer than the score shows with Jacksonville trailing into the 4th where they scored 18 points. Darnold had an issue with a toe, but it looks as if he as go. Other than that, there are 3 linebackers out for Jacksonville, and 1 possibly for NY. The Jets get to see the return of TE Herndon. As we all know, the Jax offense starts with their run game which is pretty good, gaining 5.1 ypc (3rd), and 140 ypg (5th). But, the strength of the Jets defense is their run D. They held pats to 2.2 ypc, and overall they only give up 3.3 ypc (2nd) and 92 ypg (11th) The Jets offense hasn't done much, but they have only started Darnold in 2 games (not including the Pats game because their D seems to be an outlier) and he is 1-1 and could quite easily be 2-0 in those games (losing the first one to the Bills comeback in week 1) It will be facing a Jax D that is pretty good. Their pass rush has a 30% pressure rate (6th), 21 sacks (4th), and a 9.2% knockdown rate (3rd). The algo has Jax @ -9/10 here. But does anyone really feel that confident laying a TD with Jax right now? Based upon the number match ups, this looks like it is going to be a grind of a game with both teams struggling for points. In those predicted under type games, I almost always favor the large amount of points. This is a game that deserves some underdog action.

Philadelphia @ Buffalo (-2): The Eagles are coming off a big divisional loss to the Cowboys on Prime Time, while Buffalo is coming off a win, but a win they had to fight back to get. They were expected to easily handle the Dolphins last week but were taken by surprise as Miami took an early lead. They fought back to take the lead and held on by returning an onside kick for a TD. As usual, lets start with the injury report
For the Eagles, everyone here is OUT:
  • Nigel Bradham (ankle, illness)
  • WR DeSean Jackson (abdomen)
  • OL Tim Jernigan (foot)
  • OL Jason Peters (knee)
  • RB Darren Sproles (quad)
  • CB Avonte Maddox (concussion)
The Bills have a list of questionables, but everyone seems to be a go.
Lets start with Philly. This is their fourth road game in five weeks and they have allowed an average of 31.5 ppg in all 4 road games. Their defense has given up 24 or more points in 6 of 7 games this year and the only game they didn't give up at least 24...was vs. the Jets with Luke Falk at QB. In all 4 of their losses they have had a turnover. Clean games have not been easy for them. They will be facing a Buffalo D that is top in the league. They only give up 15 ppg (3rd) under 300 ypg (3rd) and their pass d is top 5 in ypg, passer rating, completion % and ypa. Combine that with the NFL's seventh-ranked rushing attack (135.8 ypg) with Frank Gore gaining 4.5 ypc. However, Philly is known to stack the box and stop the run. They were gashed last week, but overall only give up 90 ypg on the ground so far. With Philly likely to stack the box and force Buffalo to throw, I will be looking at Brown and Beasly for props, going against a Philly secondary that is laughable. My only concern in this game is my algo has BUF -8.5 and the Vegas spread is WAYYY off from that. This may have me avoiding a side in singles when i would normally feel Buffalo here.

Cincinatti @ LA Rams (-11.5/-12/-12.5): Curious that the spreads are all over the place. However, 11-13 are really dead numbers so not much info to be gained from the multiple spreads. Cincinati looks worse than MIA. They looked decent for 3 quarters last week, but just couldn't hold it together. The Rams took the opportunity to play the Atlanta D and easily hopped back on the win train. This game will be taking place in London. The Bengals arrived on Friday and the Rams spent the week in ATL after last weeks game, and flew to London on Thursday night. No real injuries that need to be talked about. There are a few players out for both sides but nothing should effect the game much. So the Rams D had 5 sacks last week and is 4th in the league in QB pressure. Cincy has already been sacked 24 times this year. The add on of Jaylen Ramsey saw immediate impact as he had 4 tackles and a forced fumble in his first game with the Rams. The Cincy D has allowed an average 102 QBR and 8.4 ypa. While the Rams offense scores 27 ppg (7th) and gains 372 ypg (12th). Another interesting stat: Cincinnati's minus-9 turnover differential is the third-worst in the NFL. The algo only has LA as -9.5/-10.5 so i will probably avoid spreads in this game. For an interesting prop look, check out Darrel Henderson. The RB2 is out and in a gamescript where the Rams are leading by more than a score, they might look to rest Gurley for more difficult situations. This may lead to increased looks for Henderson.

Arizona @ New Orleans (-12/-12.5): Whoa! Big movement and big news. This line opened at 7.5 and has now moved all the way up to 12.5 in most books. This is in connection with the announcement that Brees will be returning this Sunday to lead his team into the bye week. 1st question... why? Bridgewater is 5-0 in his absence. They are facing what should be one of their easier opponents, and they head into a bye next week. Maybe they want Brees to see some game time speed, given it should be one of their easier games. This way he doesn't come out cold in two weeks... I dont know. Either way, it seems like a curious change to make. The Saints have Smith, Cook and Robinson out. While the Cardinals Allen and Foster with a whole list of questionable.
The Saints D is amazing so far. Currently they haven't allowed more than 260 total yards in 4 straight games and they are 34% on 3rd down, and have 20 sacks (5th). In the first four games, Arizona allowed 20 sacks (all losses or tie) but in the last 3 (all wins) Murray has only been sacked a total of 3 times. My Algo had this only as NO -4.5. Now that Brees is in and the line has moved so much, this game may be an avoid game. In props, I may look to Murray's rush yards. He should be pressured a ton in this game, and when he is pressured he likes to move.

Afternoon Games

Oakland @ Houston (-6.5): Oakland is on their 5th straight road game and coming off a loss at GB. They actually had a chance in that game. Carr fumbled in the end zone and it caused a 14 point swing that took away any momentum Oakland had. The OAK D has given up 21 points in 5 straight games and the pass rush has only a 14 % pressure rate (32nd), a 19 % blitz rate (4th lowest) and 10 sacks (28th). If they dont get to the QB, it might be all Houston as Watson is 7-0 in games when he doesn't get sacked and he is sporting 8.3 ypa through the air this year. Along side him is a pretty solid run game lead by Carlos Hyde gaining an average 66 ypg, 4.2 ypc. With the Texans rush offense as a whole gaining 4.9 ypc (5th) and 134 ypg (8th). The Algo has this as Hou -9.5 so this actually makes me suspicious of the spread. Any bets in this game will come down to the start/sit of Josh Jacobs. Without the threat of him in the backfield, the Texans D will be able to drop extra men into coverage, but if he plays, I would look for a closer game that leans towards a shootout.

Carolina @ San Francisco (-4.5/-5/-5.5): These next three are my most anticipated games of the slate. This game features the undefeated 49ers hosting the streaking Panthers. For Carolina, no notable injuries for this week. For the 49ers its the same as before. (FB) Kyle Juszczyk (knee), (OT) Mike McGlinchey (knee), and (OT) Joe Staley are all still out. So to start with we see Garoppolo is 5-0 with eight touchdowns and three interceptions in five home starts with San Francisco. They just added Emanuel Sanders to the roster which should ultimately boost their already good 7.9 ypa on offense. Garoppolo will be going against the Panthers’ secondary that was outstanding early in the season but has surrendered more than 350 yards in consecutive games. The SF rush D that has only allowed 4.1ypc (12th) and 90 ypg (7th) will have its hands full this week going up against Christian McCaffrey who has 923 yards rushing so far. An interesting stat that has me leaning Carolina in this one: CAR blitzes the fewest of any team in the league...YET, they lead the NFL in sacks. I will be shopping my line here and lean with the dog.

Cleveland @ New England (-10/-10.5/-11): This is going to be a fun match up to watch. But it doesn't appear it will be a good game. There are no real injuries to note and you could make a case for CLE by saying they are coming off a bye and are desperate for a win vs. a NE team that is coming off a short week. But with my model, that doesn't appear to be the case. The Cleveland offense averages 231 ypg (16th) and 7.5 ypa (15th) but has 15 dropped passes (3rd )and 11 ints (32nd). They have 1 in every game... Also, Baker has turned the ball over 12 times this year (tied for the most in the NFL) going against a NE D that has 18 INTs right now. This looks like a game where the Patriots will utilize their mutli-headed run game as Cleveland has been gashed for 154.0 yard per game on the ground. The one shining light for the browns D is they have 19 sacks. However, 9 of those sacks have come from Myles Garret. Also, here is a video I came across where it is detailed how to disrupt the play of Baker Mayfield. I feel like if I can find this, so can the Patriots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4qlJE4DZsc

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay @ Kansas City(+4.5/+5): This one has the biggest line movement of the slate. Originally, it opened KC -4, since the Mahomes injury, it has moved to what it is now. The only other notable injury is DeVante Adams will still be out for GB. Starting for KC should be Matt Moore, who replaced PM during the Denver game. He did fairly well, coming in and going 10-19 117 yds, 1TD and a 90 QBR. KC last played on Thursday, so they had a few extra days to prepare for this one. I feel like with Matt Moore starting at QB, a lot of KC offensive stats are devalued. KC defense has 20 sacks (5th) and will be facing and offensive line in GB that has only give up 12 sacks. The packers rank 11th in offense but it has mostly been due to the passing game. They have failed to get more than 80 yards rushing in 4 of 7. They may look to turn that around this week against a poor KC run defense that gives up 5 ypc (30th) and 150 ypg (29th). I dont expect Matt Moore to have too difficult of a time. He still has a lot of star power on the offensive side of the ball and they will be facing a Green Bay defense that ranks 26th in total defense and has given up 420 or more total yards three times. However, the team is ninth in scoring defense with 13 takeaways. My algo had GB -2.5, before the PM adjustments. I dont think Moore deserves the 8-9 points Vegas is adjusting for, but even field goad pushes GB to -5.5. Overall for props the model is predicting both of GBs running backs to have increased opportunities on the ground and in the air.

Singles 46-53-2 (+3.03u)
  • NYG +6.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • NYG ml (1u to win 2.5u)
  • Golden Tate 75+ Rec Yards (2u to win 2.3u)
  • Saquon 75+ Rush Yards (1u to win 1u)
  • Saquon 105.5+ Rush and Rec Yards (0u to win 3u)
  • Corey Davis 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 2u)
  • A.J. Brown 2.5 Rec Over (0u to win 1.3u)
  • Phillip Lindsey 53.5 Rush Yards Over (0u to win 1u)
  • Phillip Lindsey to Score TD (0u to win 1.2u)
  • Chargers ml (1u to win 1.63u)
  • Chargers +3.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • Eckler 5.5 Rec Over (0u to win 1.2u)
  • Eckler 45.5 Rec Yards Over (0u to win 2u)
  • Hooper 58.5 Rec Yards Over (2.3u to win 2u)
  • NYJ +7 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • NYJ ml (1u to win 2.7u)
  • Gardener Minshew 239.5 Pass yards Under (0u to win 1u)
  • New England -10.05 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • Kenny stills 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 2u)
  • Aaron Jones 64.5 Rush Yards Over(0u to win 1u)
  • Aaron Jones 13.5 Rush Attempts (0u to win 2u)
  • Jamal Williams 21.5 Rec Yards Over (1.1u to win 1u)

Parlays: 1-3 (+43.42u)
  • Titans ml, Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml (1u to win 1.86u)
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, Bills ml (1u to win 2u)
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, Den +5.5 (1u to win 2.2u)
  • Jets +7, LAC +3.5, NYG +3.5, CAR +4.5, NE -8.5 (2.5u to win 72.2u) This has "parlay insurance" A promo on DK wherein if 4 out of 5 legs hit, I get a refund on my bet.
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, GB ml, Jets +7, NYG +6, LAC +3.5 (0u to win 117.7u)
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-6 (-5.19u)
  • Ten ml, NYG ml, DEN ml, LAC ml, NYJ +7, Buf ml, NO ml, Sea ml, Car +4.5, NE ml, GB ml, Mia ml (0u to win 5438.7u)
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, GB ml, Jets +7, NYG +6, LAC +3.5, SEA ml, Buf ml, Ten ml, Car +5.5 (0u to win 231.1u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-2 (-1u)
  • I put this in at the Ocean Casino, I will post in the comments if by some miracle all the 1 and 4 pm games hit. (0.5u to win 10000u)
Teasers: 5-11 (-11.18u)
  • I am putting in a teaser card at the Ocean when I head over there before the games today. I will post picks in the comments after I see the lines and place the bet.
Futures
  • NE, GB, CLE, NYG all to win their Division (0u to win 257.8u) This is a Free bet (last one for DK, it was close to expiring) I like CLE's schedule after the pats game. NYG..I mean cmon. Everyones getting healthy, and the rest of the division hasn't been dominant enough to count them out. Should be a fun sweat!
Notes for bets: So this week I drove to PA (I live in South Jersey) and I made new accounts on some websites in PA. Because of this I now have 45u in Free Bets that need to be used in the next 30 days. I will probably sprinkle them into my singles and take a 10u shot here or there on a parlay.

Thanks for reading. Good luck to all!!
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]

CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks (Championship round)

CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks (Championship round)

https://preview.redd.it/crofwmm79rb41.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7cf1739342ba6f6dd17502147137a2b1544f4495
Divisional Round Recap:
Singles 18-22 (+7.37u) Horrrrible first game. Won each game after to make up for it but if I had just sat out the first game I would have skipped an 0-8 -5.3u run. 😂
Parlays: 0-0(0u) We didnt hit any of our free plays but fortunately it didn't negatively impact the BR. We were 3-4 for a 34u win and the fourth bet was Henry anytime TD. Unfortunately he threw his TD and most books dont include passing TDs.
BBDLS: 0-2 (-4u): Having MIN in all of these really killed me. Didnt realize I didnt balance here until everything was posted.
Futures: 0-3 (-2u): Still live here! Wishing I took KC/GB last week!

Conference Championships
Before we get started, there is a theme to today's game picks. I was going to write about it last week and put in a futures play but it didn't make it to the to the paper. Here we are one week later, last chance to talk about it AND it coincides with my algo's picks.
This year marks the NFL's 100th anniversary. In the NFL's first Superbowl the Packers beat the Chiefs... How awesome of a story line would it be if the Superbowl in the NFL's 100th anniversary hosted a rematch of it's first Superbowl?!


https://preview.redd.it/qb4h7bavasb41.jpg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a9f5628e0668619f76fdbbab551fad1a0b6fd78a
Tennessee at Kansas City (-7): Man, Derrick Henry is not only the Titans MVP, he could be the actual mascot for his team,as he is a Titan of a human. I don't often watch the games, but I make an exception for the playoffs. This is the first time I am really seeing his actual size vs the players trying to tackle him. I know the first time these two met KC was a 5 point road favorite that lost straight up... Even still, my algo has KC -9.5 in this one. If you look back at that game KC in the 4th quarter was about to kick a FG to not only win, but cover the spread, however that FG was blocked and turned into a TD and an upset win. The Titans have been great since the Tannehill switch but in these playoffs, I don't really think their defense has been tested. The first game they played a Patriots offense that has struggled most of the year and in the second game game script gave them an early lead and they were able to play a much more relaxed style of defense. Now they are going up against probably the best offense left with a complimentary defense that has been consistently improving as the season progressed. At any point TEN could have a multi score lead and the Chiefs could be right back in it. The same doesn't appear to ring true for the Titans. I am on the fence about the total. KC could easily put up 30 points, but can TEN put up more than 17/20 here? Without a defensive score, I am not sure that happens. I feel like the value might grow on the under as we get closer to game time. If the public pushes the total up to 54 or higher I think it will be a great spot to take the under. 31-17, 34-20 seem like very reasonable scores :D
Added factors for why I like the Chiefs:
  • TEN has been on the road since Christmas
  • Arrowhead HFA, especially this time of year
  • QB playoff experience
  • Andy Reid, PM, Kelce
  • Rematch of Superbowl one!!!


https://preview.redd.it/70dq2jpx8rb41.jpg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c3f1085ed1d6bf5596a27a9c59d21bccbea2e17d
Green Bay at San Francisco (-7.5): This game is much tougher than the previous as my algo has this game rated much closer than Vegas is predicting (I have SF -4). I think that SF has the better coach, and the better Team. But i think GB has the better players at Skill positions. Who would you rather? DeVante Adams or Samuel/Emmanuel, Aaron Jones or one of the three SF RBs, Rodgers with playoff experience and a great O line, or Garoppolo with a good jaw line and a coach that makes great schemes? In the first matchup between these two, SF got out to an early two TD lead, finished the half up 20-0 never slowed down. I don't think that is likely to repeat in this match up. My algo is showing heavy value on GB and with the potential rematch of Superbowl one in the leagues sites I feel there is good value on the GB ml. Even safer value than that is the GB first half spread (+4/4.5) or even the GB first quarter ml (+180). I will also be looking at Smith and Smith. They are two defensive players for GB that have dramatically changed stats of the GB D from 2018 to 2019. From a great article on Warren Sharp's website: "
Per Football Outsiders’ DVOA, the Packers ranked eighth on offense in 2019 after ranking seventh in 2018. On defense, Green Bay ranked 15th in the 2019 regular season after ranking 29th in 2018.
Green Bay’s pass rush has the potential to make a difference in the NFC Championship Game against a San Francisco offensive line that ranked just 26th in Pass Block Win Rate during the regular season. Even in the blowout loss during the regular season, Za’Darius and Preston combined for two sacks while the 49ers were not forced to throw much at all — there were just 21 pass snaps on the day. Green Bay will have to hope there’s a little more opportunity on Sunday.
Without the Smiths, the Packers might not be in the postseason. Now might be the key to making it to the Super Bowl. The Packers took their biggest risk by spending in free agency but the payoff has already been worth it. "
Since my algo is already favoring GB, I am gonna saddle up and ride with Sharp and the Smith's...(New band name anyone?😜)


Post Season Bets
Singles 27-34 (-0.51u)
These are all odds boost on Sugarhouse that I find attractive
  • Damien Williams to record 80 or more rushing yards & 1 or more rushing touchdowns & Patrick Mahomes to have 2 or more passing touchdowns (1.5u to win 9.73u)
  • Sammy Watkins, Corey Davis & Travis Kelce each to score 1 or more touchdowns (0.5u to win 16.38u)
  • Travis Kelce & George Kittle each to record 75 or more receiving yards & 1 or more receiving touchdowns( 1.5u to win 22.13u)
  • Preston Smith & Za’Darius Smith to record over 3.5 total sacks (2u to win 16u)👀
  • Aaron Rodgers to record 15 or more rushing yards & 1 or more rushing touchdowns (0.5u to win 10u)
  • Davante Adams to record 2 or more touchdowns, 100 or more receiving yards & Packers to win (1u to win 50u)
  • Deebo Samuel, Davante Adams & Jimmy Graham each to record 1 or more touchdowns(1u to win 32u)
  • KC to win 31-17 (1u to win 80u) 🤞


Parlays: 0-3 (-6u) These are a carryover from the Mcgregor fight. I tried to put in a parlay with these picks AND McGregor to win in the first 60 seconds(16-1 itself) Foxbet website was having trouble making the parlays for the whole hour leading up to the fight. Chat advised me to put the bet down on Conor and then the bet on NFL and that I would get the same odds. I did that and Luckily for me the odds on GB ml went up! :D
  • Patrick Mahomes to throw 2+ Passing TDs, GB 1Q ml (1u to win 11u)
  • KC ml, GB ml (1.5u to win 124.8u)
Same game parlays for a little sweat :D
  • Williams O56.5 Rush and a TD, PM O22.5 Rush, Kelce O83.5 Rec, Robinson O16.5 Rec, KC 1q ml and 1Hml and full game ml, Game U59.5 Total (1u to win 59.76u)
  • Jones O64.5 Rush and a TD, Graham O23.5 Rec, Deebo O51.5 Rec, Kittle O75.5 Rec, Adams O85.5 Rec, GB 1Q ml and GB 1H +4.5 and GB ml (1u to win 202.88u) BBDLS
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-2 (-4u)
  • It's possible I get a refer a friend bonus before the games start. If I do, I am looking at KC points and under parlayed with GB ml and over for a free bet. If it goes through, it will be 0u to win ~ 200u. It is 130 now and it hasn't happened yet, but if it does I will post it in the comments)
Teasers (0-0)
  • KC -0.5 and U58, GB +16 and O 39.5 (3u to win 7.94u)
Futures: 0-3 (-2u)
  • KC to win AFC (0u to win 4.25u)
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CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 17

CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 17

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Sunday Recap
Singles: 10-10 (-3.63u)
Parlay: 0-0 (0u): None
BBDLS: 0-1 (-1.2u)
SBBDLS: 0-1 (-0.5u)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3u)

Sunday Games

Tennessee at Houston(+6): Huge first game to open up the card. TEN controls their playoff destiny. Win and they are in. Houston is already in but O'brien says he isn't resting players. I can't imagine he sticks to that plan. There is no reason for him to risk any injury to anyone important. I think Vegas is charging the public on the TEN spread. My algo has this game a PK with TEN -2.5 on a neutral field. With the return of Derrick Henry and Tennessee's top red-zone offense combined with 0 reasons for the Texan's to play a full game, this one is an easy ml parlay candidate. There aren't many props I will be looking at on this final weekend, but Henry is one of them. A week of rest and a win and in scenario for the player that the offense runs through? Sign me up.
Extra note: The KC/LAC game is at 1pm. The only chance HOU has to move up is for KC to lose in the 1pm game, then HOU would be majorly incentivised to win this game. May put a BBDLS in that has this combination. Which btw, if you believe the game is rigged to get the Patriots to another superbowl, having KC and HOU swap seeding and make KC and BAL eliminate one of each other seems like the easiest road for New England...

Cleveland at Cincinnati(+3): Annnnd here we have the first coin flip of the day. Half a season ago this would have been an easy Browns pick. Now who knows who is going to get up for this game. Im sure everyone in Cleveland would like to end the season on a win. At least it will make a look back a the whole season a little less bitter for them. CIN has clinched a first round pick in the draft. Does this mean that Dalton and Co. are going to take his probably last opportunity as a Bengals starter to showcase their talents for next year's money? Both teams will most likely rely heavily on their running games so I will be fading this one except to maybe take a Bengals ml in a BBDLS

Chicago at Minnesota(+3): Another divisional match up here. This game opened at MIN -7 and because they cant move up or down from the 6 seed it looks like they will be resting most of their key players. CHI is only playing for pride and has only one win against a team with a winning record this year, luckily for them it was against this team, at full strength! Not knowing who is going to play for MIN will keep me from looking their way even with the points and HF.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville(+4): Just like the CLE/CIN game this one is anyone's game. We have a few of these this week. Teams that are both out of the playoffs with no incentive to win other than pride and future contracts. Ill expect IND to try and replicate last weeks effort on the ground as JAX has a run defense with season stats almost identical to CAR. JAX is hit or miss so in the final (home) game of the season, catching points...Ill have to ride dog or fade.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay(-2): Another game with two teams who have zero post season opportunity. Both have been playing above their records over the month of December with ATL coming into this having won their last 3 games. TB has been crap at home this year so far going 2-5. Can they pick up this last game and finish the season .500? My algo is saying no. Currently it is siding with the surge of defense being played by the Falcons in the second half of the season and with less reliable targets for Winston to throw to and a fantastic match up for Julio, Im gonna have to side with the road team here.

Washington at Dallas(-11): Boy did the Cowboys really suck last week. They couldn't put up 10 points on an Eagle's secondary that has been getting burned all year. An Eagle's secondary that just gave up like 35 points to the Case Keenum lead Redskins... I mean one would think that Dallas, playing for a miracle to get in the playoffs, would give this game everything and dominate from start to finish. But, why woulnt they just do that last week? Plus, Keenum didn't look that bad (although it was against the Giants secondary). Eleven is a lot of points for a 45 total. That would mean Dallas would have to put up 27 -31 points and keep WAS at 13-17. Doable but not profitable at a -110 bet. Will probably save Dallas for a ML parlay or WAS and the points for a BBDLS. Won't be looking props except Zeke who will be facing a Skins D that gave up almost 200 last week to Saquan alone...
Extra trends: The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six against teams with a losing record and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against NFC East teams. Washington is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

New Orleans at Carolina(-13): Well, Will Greer didnt spark the fire in the dying CAR team. CAR has lost their last 7 games and has given up an average 32 ppg over those games. The Rivera defense is over. The Saints on the other hand are operating on the opposite end of the spectrum. Brees had that stumble against ATL but other than that he has looked great as the Saints offense has put 34 or more points in 5 of their last 6. Two TDs is a lot, but if there are a few teams that could do it more often than 53% in this spot, NO is one of them.

Philadelphia at NY Giants(+4): A meaningful match up for two teams, but only one of them is playing this game. Philly controls their playoff destiny, as they seemed to have for the last few weeks. A win here with crown them NFC East champs and send them to the playoffs. A loss + a DAL win would end Philly's season and send the Cowboys to the post season. My algo is all over this one for a high scoring game. Both secondary's suck. Greg Ward has quietly become a go to guy for Wentz, posting 15 receptions for 166 yards and 1 touchdown on 23 targets over his last 3 games. Jones seems to favor Tate in terms of targets, but Shepherd has the softest match up going against Jalen Mills.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore(+2): Baltimore is in the playoffs and has the guaranteed one seed in the AFC. PIT is seeing their playoff chances slip away. With their loss last week to the Jets, they now need to win this game AND a loss from the Titans. The good news for them is that BAL has their spot locked up and looks to rest a TON of key players. Even so the backup, RG3, isn't the worst guy to step in. He is basically the B team version of Jackson. Well, maybe the C team, haha but even a C team running QB seems more dangerous than whoever PIT has been putting on the field at QB this season. This game's total has been dropping as the week goes on so there is a good chance I just skip it all together as low totals aren't usually good games to target props. Also, there is some serious RLM. Almost 60% of bets are on BAL but the line has gone from BAL -3 to BAL +2...

NY Jets at Buffalo(-1): Interesting game here. NY played spoiler last week handing the Steelers and upset and severely hurting their playoff chances. Buffalo is riding high with a guaranteed post season appearance this year, their first in a while. There are already rumors that the Bills won't play starters the whole game, and why would they? They are locked into the 5 spot in the AFC, no reason to risk injury to anyone. With another low projected total, I will probably ride dog or avoid this game all together.

Miami at New England (-16.5): Two very important factors in this game. One, its the Dolphins defense. Two, its the Patriots at home. End Analysis. .
.
Just kidding! That should be all we need to know, but just for the sake of depth, I will add a little more, haha. NE is playing for the number 2 seed in the playoffs and HFA in their first game. MIA with a loss and a NYG win would move up in the draft order. There is also some suprising RLM in this one. Almost 60% of the bets are on MIA +14.5 open, but the line is climbing to now 16.5. This feels like a classic Patriots 31-13 game with 2 or 3 picks, maybe a defensive score, and use of alllll the running backs. I struggle when taking Patriot props as they are so hard to predict who will get the usage on any given day. If you have a site that offers odds on a defensive score, I would take +odds in this context.

Green Bay at Detroit(+12): Well this is another playoff bound favorite vs. a team in rebuild looking at 2020. DET did get back Kerryon Johnson at RB. The dual threat of Johnson and Scarborough helped take some load off Blough and DET actually held the lead in the DEN game late. Unfortunately DET defense is still one of the worst and a quick 14 points from DEN took this game away. The first time these two played it was close in GB with DET leading the whole game...however, that game feels like a different season with the different paths these two teams have taken since that game. I expect GB to play starters the whole game and lock up a chance at higher seeding and possibly HFA.

LA Chargers at Kansas City(-9): Does KC want to play Baltimore first, or NE first? Essentially if they win this game they get NE and if they lose (and the Texans win) they would get BAL. I would assume they are not happy to play either but alas, the road to the SB leads through both for KC. This year, 11 out of 15 of the LAC games have been won or lost by 7 points or less. Unfortunately for LA, they are 2-9 in those games. This is actually a tough spread to cap. Anything over 7 feels so hard, I mean 11 out of 15... Ill probably be on KC ml in my parlays so I may throw a balance of LA in one.

Arizona at LA Rams(-6): Man, I was all over the Rams last Saturday, and a win by them would have kept their playoff chances alive and netted us a huge win on our free roll for that game. Sadly, they couldnt stop two third and longs. Now I sit here wondering if they are even going to get up for this game. AZ has been an underdog most of the year and as a team has put in good effort in most if not all their games. Drake has been an absolute beast since his trade from MIA. Im honestly not sure why this line is what it is. Maybe I am missing something, but it looks like there is a TON of value on AZ. Maybe even ML value.

Oakland at Denver(-3.5): So the Raiders still have a chance here. If both TEN and PIT lose and IND and OAK win...OAK is in. It's actually possible, especially if the Chargers an do something random against the Chiefs. For DEN, Lock coming in has been great for them. They are 3-1 since he was named starter and the only game they lost was against the Chiefs. A big key for me in this one is whether or not Josh Jacobs returns. If he does, OAK and the points looks juicy. If he does not, DEN seems primed to end the season on a Mile High Note. :P

San Francisco at Seattle(+3.5): They say save the best for last. A fight for their division title, and a chance for either team to take the one seed in the NFC and SF to have HFA throughout the playoffs. The first meeting between these two went down to the wire with SEA taking it on the road. Even with the injuries and new RBs, there has to be value on SEA at home getting more than a field goal.
Extra trends: The Seahawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog. San Francisco is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game


Singles 133-138-3 (+15.17u)
  • Sadly, all the NJ sites took Henry props off the board this morning :( If they pop back up before game time I will post the lines I get in chat. Looking for Henry rushing yards, I expect him to go over 100 yards and a TD today.
  • ATL ml (1u to win 1u)
  • Man it seems like a lot of the props I want are taken off the board. This space is supposed to be for Steve Sims (WAS) Reception total
  • Ok, so basically no props this week, haha. Most of the sites have either taken down the specific lines I want, or juiced them up to like -150/-200. I guess that's a good lesson I have had to learn a few times this year. If I find value in a line I should book it when I find it, not wait.
  • CHI -3 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • SEA +3.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • James Washington 39.5 yards Over (1.4u to win 1u)
Parlays: 8-14 (+81.66u)
  • NE ml, NO ml, GB ml, KC ml (12.4u to win 10u) My largest unit wager on any given bet, but this seems like a good week to push it with each of these teams having a ton of incentive to get W's.
  • NE ml, NO ml, GB ml, KC ml, ATL ml, TEN ml, CHI ml (3u to win 18u)
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-18 (-18.98u)
  • NE ml, NO ml, GB ml, KC ml, ATL ml, TEN ml, CHI ml, NYJ ml, CIN ml, DEN ml, SEA ml, BAL ml (1u to win 223.9u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-14 (-7u)
  • Putting one in at Ocean Casino on Sunday morning.
Teasers: 7-23 (-39.1u)
  • Putting one in at Ocean Casino on Sunday morning.

I have a few more parlays and BBDLS that I put in but it's 11am and I am going to head to the Ocean Casino in AC to put in my last SBBDLS for the season. Will post in the comments when I get back if I find some prop lines before game time. Good luck to all! :D
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Guide to Betting Parlays: Sports Betting 101 Strategies On How To Bet Parlays What Is The Best Online Sportsbook? Safest Betting Sites - YouTube Best Online Sports Betting Site For US

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Guide to Betting Parlays: Sports Betting 101

Baseball Betting: Parlays, Totals with Dave Cokin + Jim Feist, May 20, 2016 - Duration: 10:59. Jim Feist 5,542 views. 10:59. How to Win at Sports Betting! Is it even possible? Parlay betting is a nice way to both spice up your betting and extend your payouts. Learn how to place parlay bets and how to calculate the odds generated when you combine your bets. Parlay Betting Blackjack Session - $100 Buy In. In this video every hand won we increased our bet by one unit but still playing Basic Strategy. Part 1. We start with a bankroll of $100 at this ... Sports Betting Explained: Pros vs Joes (Sharp Sports Betting vs Square Sports Betting) - Duration: 8:21. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 44,751 views 8:21 Our mission is very simple. We strive to provide unbiased online sports betting sites reviews, strategy advice for new and seasoned bettors, cashout reports ...