INEFFICIENCIES IN PARIMUTUEL BETTING MARKETS ACROSS

Talking about betting market efficiency[slow][accent][unintentional][talking]

Talking about betting market efficiency[slow][accent][unintentional][talking] submitted by iWearNoHat to asmr [link] [comments]

Perfectly Efficient Political Betting Markets

Perfectly Efficient Political Betting Markets submitted by oilman81 to neoliberal [link] [comments]

www.astorgame.com At AstorGame, we aim to be the leading company in the global online gaming market, as well as becoming a model of efficiency, transparency, and security as regards games, betting, and online fun, focused in New Technologies as #Ethereum #BlockChain

www.astorgame.com At AstorGame, we aim to be the leading company in the global online gaming market, as well as becoming a model of efficiency, transparency, and security as regards games, betting, and online fun, focused in New Technologies as #Ethereum #BlockChain submitted by astorgame to u/astorgame [link] [comments]

www.astorgame.com At AstorGame, we aim to be the leading company in the global online gaming market, as well as becoming a model of efficiency, transparency, and security as regards games, betting, and online fun, focused in New Technologies as #Ethereum #BlockChain

www.astorgame.com At AstorGame, we aim to be the leading company in the global online gaming market, as well as becoming a model of efficiency, transparency, and security as regards games, betting, and online fun, focused in New Technologies as #Ethereum #BlockChain submitted by astorgame to icocrypto [link] [comments]

www.astorgame.com At AstorGame, we aim to be the leading company in the global online gaming market, as well as becoming a model of efficiency, transparency, and security as regards games, betting, and online fun, focused in New Technologies as #Ethereum #BlockChain

www.astorgame.com At AstorGame, we aim to be the leading company in the global online gaming market, as well as becoming a model of efficiency, transparency, and security as regards games, betting, and online fun, focused in New Technologies as #Ethereum #BlockChain submitted by astorgame to IcoInvestor [link] [comments]

What are your favourite disruptive/futuristic stocks?

Disruptive like Apple was in the early-mid 2000s, disruptive like Tesla is today (I can hear people being triggered already), or disruptive like an uber.
What are your favourites and why? Always interested to hear about other peoples riskier stocks with great upside if they succeed at their disruptive missions!
submitted by SorrowsSkills to stocks [link] [comments]

Stochastic optimisation in analysing efficiency of betting exchange markets

submitted by danielkorzekwa to reddit.com [link] [comments]

@CBCNews: #Opinion: Given a chance to bet on the agility, efficiency and adaptability of the black market, versus a sheltered monopoly like Ontario's LCBO, I know where my money would go. https://t.co/FMYlXHM3Se

@CBCNews: #Opinion: Given a chance to bet on the agility, efficiency and adaptability of the black market, versus a sheltered monopoly like Ontario's LCBO, I know where my money would go. https://t.co/FMYlXHM3Se submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

Anyone use Kelly Criterion for position sizing?

I’m new and learning about strategies for selling options, I’ve been watching lots of tastytrade lately. I want to figure out a way to optimize position sizing based on my bankroll and the probabilities of profit.
For anyone who knows of the Kelly Criterion or has seen their video on it, how can it be applied effectively to making trades? I’d expect that the theoretical expected value of selling options is 0 so the Kelly Criterion would be difficult to use without knowing the realized probability of profit. Any pointers?
submitted by poppy1234567 to thetagang [link] [comments]

A step-by-step guide of how I would build a SaaS company right now - part 3

Part 1 Part 2 Part 2.5
I was shooting for every week, but that proved harder than anticipated, I'll try to wrap this up in the next few weeks though.
This is part 3 of 5.
  1. Start with your revenue and monetization plan (are you targeting a sector that has money and can/will pay - Part 1)
  2. Align yourself with others in your space (cheapest way to get traction/credibility - Part 2)
2.5 - Process, process, process - Start one, refine it, continually improve it - Part 2.5
  1. Work on road mapping your product to align with what complements your partnerships (cheapest distribution)
  2. Work on building a marketing strategy that can help expose and align your brand while strengthening its recognition with your partners (will this make us both look good)
  3. Build customer advocates along the way, tell their stories (lead with examples)
Work on road mapping your product to align with what complements your partnerships (cheapest distribution)
What exactly does this mean?
All platforms that you integrate with usually do one or two things really really well, then there are features they have to have in order to connect the dots, arguably though, these features don’t get a lot of love and well, they are MVPs in the traditional sense. This is what we’re looking for. This is the sweet spot.
Side notes: This was actually just exposed with the latest Microsoft 365 update which is taking the Notion approach to collaboration - I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Google do something similar to this in the very near future.
Zoom built an entire business on this, video conferencing wasn’t new but the ease of getting started without an account or software to download combined with free time allowances made them a massive success. They also integrated very quickly with partner tools like slack.
This usually comes in a few flavors - something that checks a box and something that just wasn’t thought out workflow wise. Slack did this to both google and microsoft quite successfully.
If at any time microsoft or google wanted to compete they could have during the last 7 years it’s been a known entity, in fact it took a solid 5 before microsoft even hinted at teams. Slack gets to play nice with everyone while microsoft and google have the tough time of wanting to keep everyone in their ecosystem. It’s a tough call for them to allow outside access.
Because these companies don’t focus on these things as much as other parts of their platforms, room for improvements will start to crop up quickly. Remember that list of customers using competitors, it’s time to talk to some of them.
You can only accomplish the above if you have an established approach for your internal workings - aka alignment across the organization.
The road map process will differ based on your individual products, so instead of the products we’re going to focus on a repeatable framework that you can adapt.
Understanding how your product fits into a workflow.
Partners aren’t just tech partners, partners are often your first few clients. Pay attention to their workflows and how you can add value and become integral to their success.
Product development - the internal fight between engineers, product managers, sales, executives, and everyone else. Oh and customers, they’ll always tell you how you can make things better - it would be a modern day miracle if we listened to them more often.
Product, like marketing, is something everyone has an opinion about.
We’re going to go over how you should position your product in the market. Specifically how your solution impacts the workflow of your potential customers. When we change our approach from what features our product has and move the conversation to how our product improves, adds data, or simplifies a clients workflow success follows.
True innovation comes from understanding that all companies are looking for more data, recommendations, and automation. Hint: all these lead to reduced resources and increased revenue.
You want to know how bad this really is? Just look at common things we deal with, phone trees, spam emails, even how people organize their inbox or don’t.
Inefficiency is really all around you, when you put a magnifying glass up to it.
Sidenote here - if you ever find yourself looking for a problem or trying to better understand a workflow, write down every step you take for an entire day while working with a program. You’d be amazed by all the little things that you do and the massive room for improvement.
What is a product?
Let’s take a step back and look at the different kind of products that exist generally -
  1. Add on
  2. Stand alone
  3. Platform
  4. Suite
We’ll take these one at a time with this framework -
What are they?
Why do they exist?
Is it right for me?
What is the workflow play?
Add On
What is an add on?
An add on, plugin, app, etc they go by many names is essentially a piece of software built on top of another piece of software. It relies on the backbone of another service to deliver value. Usually using the platform’s API or existing architecture.
The program or software exists within the ecosystem of another product.
Why do they exist?
The companies that allow add-ons are “Platforms” they have a core that they maintain and spend time developing communities to build on their flexible architecture. If we were doing a timeline of how most companies grow it usually goes:
Addon / Stand Alone → Platform → Suite
We see this more and more as the sheer quantity of software options has increased.
Is it right for me?
I’d say in 2020 it should play a large role in your initial launch and outreach. There are millions of people using existing platforms to create lots of things, for B2B it’s really easy to build targeted lists of clients of those that are using these platforms. Small purpose built apps that solve for very real problems are all around us and a lot of the small ones serve very specific purposes with built in use cases. They require people to be niche by default.
Remember the zoom example from above - remove friction and you can win market share.
Literally, everyone has an add on these days. Usually a small part of their larger product.
They also make for a great marketing play as well, they are relatively simple to build, especially in the case of something like a chrome extension and allow a company to rapidly test new features and release them in small parts to existing customers to gauge interest.
What is the workflow play?
For most B2B software outside of software that is used to run the business daily, getting users to continually find value in it can be difficult. For a lot of it, it’s set it and forget it. Add-ons allow you to better incorporate your product into the customer’s workflow.
If you’re looking to improve a workflow for an existing internal process, at the very least an add on is a great way to embed your product where your customers are spending time.
Big takeaway: When you build on top of an existing platform, you get clout, you can align yourself with that platform to plan development around features that benefit the users of that platform.
It’s much easier to say I build [something specific] for people that use [plugin or CMS framework] built on top of [platform].
To be less abstract…
I build background effects packages for people using Elementor built on top of Wordpress.
Broken down - We’re now looking for people using Elementor on wordpress that are looking for background effects to add a little extra to their website.
It’s all about narrowing down who your champion partners will be - those that find the most value in these things.
We’re always looking for our advantage and positioning ourselves to grow - we do this by targeting areas that need a little more attention or things that are currently cumbersome but need a little more love.
Stand Alone
What is a stand alone product?
A stand alone product is one that provides a singular function with limited integrations that allows users to create and manage a workflow or a process from within the application.
Something like a Help Desk is a good example of a stand alone product.
These are purpose built products that don’t require any other integrations to provide value.
Why do they exist?
This is what most people think of when they say they are building a SaaS company. They are building something that solves a specific problem for other companies. Most companies fall under this category, nearly all start in this category.
Most companies also stop at this point, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Build something solid and purpose built that provides value, then expand via add ons to cater to different existing platforms and you’ve got a solid business model.
Is it right for me?
It should be, it’s pretty much required most of the time. Your app should be able to function on it’s own to provide value. Does it have to be, no. There are plenty of businesses that stay just as add ons built on top of large platforms like Salesforce.
This is a call you’re going to have to make for yourself, however these are definitely the predominant leaders.
What is the workflow play?
How does your app work with an existing business workflow? This is really the question. If you’re a stand alone app, do you work for everyone in a business? A team?
Most of the time, a product focuses on an internal team that requires them as part of their workflow. There are different entry points within a team as well.
Are you targeting executives? Directors? Managers? Lower level staff?
How your product works with each of those levels will be different because the expectations and needs of customers at these levels are all different.
Remember, you’re not selling into a company, you’re selling into a role at the company.
When we start thinking about partners as some of your first few clients, really what we’re looking for is a group of true believers that see promise in what we’re creating.
This promise has to work towards providing them more data (less guessing), make decision making easier (more clarity), and lead towards automation (no one likes doing the same things over and over).
Big takeaway -
When you’re a stand alone product you have to nail workflow. The UX/UI has to be intuitive, easy to pickup and easier to get a team behind. It just has to work. Not only that it should have a feature that is 10x better than the competition.
If you don’t have a 10x feature, it’s time to take a closer look at the workflow because it’s obviously you’re missing something.
Remember to start with data collection, move to recommendations based on the data collection, and finish with automating a task over time based on the workflow.
Platform
What is a platform product?
A product that allows people to build on top of it, Shopify, Wordpress, Slack, Salesforce (not the other parts of the suite) these are all examples of a platform product.
They started as stand alone products but then opened up their ecosystem to allow people to build on top of them.
If you have a passionate tech forward audience and customer base this is a great position to head towards, typically this moves you from being SaaS to almost a PaaS play where you charge for the ability for people to build on top of you.
These guys are also heavy weights, getting a company to move away from one of them is next to impossible. There’s just a lot of friction that goes into it. I’ve watched this from the front lines numerous times, in most cases, the effort needed to move from one platform to another isn’t worth it in the short term.
It adds complexity to an existing workflow and is immediately met with pushback the farther down the process it goes.
Why do they exist?
They exist to enable people to have a platform to build on top of - they also exist to give new companies a really focused way to find their target market.
The platform is the stepping stone towards a larger land grab towards a full suite of products. You can start to see this happening with some of the larger players as their market share for a specific focus moves them to expand into a full suite of products.
Hubspot, Salesforce, Hubspot, etc. they have all moved towards the suite play. But they all graduated from stand alone to platform to suite - it’s incredibly rare to see someone go after a platform or suite play from the start.
The only one I can think of off the top of my head is Slack going platform very soon after starting to roll out.
Is it right for me?
Depends. Platforms for two sided marketplaces seem to be the only reason that you would want to be a platform or if you built a new product from scratch. It’s ambitious, but let’s face it, there are tons of opportunities that still remain in this sector.
I think we’re just starting the process of enabling marketplaces through technology, I’d love one marketplace to search them all.
Want a good example - second hand marketplaces - no two descriptions are the same. Which makes things a nightmare to search - I’m looking at you ebay.
If I was looking for something used, I might even pay a one time fee to know the trending price, the frequency of the items posted with the preferred specs I’m looking for etc. The used market is ripe for disruption.
Imagine you were looking for a certain color combination for a used vehicle and you wanted to search across all marketplaces to find the color combo and also get data on how often one of those comes up for purchase - I think you can see where data aggregation, recommendations, and an automated process would make things easier.
Sidenote on this example - some credit unions will actually pay someone to search for your car - there’s a built in marketplace for this HUMAN driven activity already.
What is the workflow play?
To the workflow - look at complicated steps that involve multiple pieces of software where no one is doing an amazing job and you might be onto something.
There was a move back in the day to get everything in one place, then APIs happened and now you can connect just about all the tools together. There are companies that specifically focus on niche workflows though, they take longer to get started and don’t always go the platform route - you need a lot of users to make this viable - but they do exist.
So back to this workflow - look at the number of tools, their age, their representative structure - back to the car example go try doing a search for a used car on Hertz.com - actually do a search on any car site - it sucks.
Imagine combining more natural language search like Algolia to that experience - I’m betting someone could build a better data heavy engine to tackle that beast.
With anything though - clean data in makes it easier to create searches, but making sure that data is clean is tough.
So the workflow is built around two sides for a platform - how the customer - in this case the business can use the software to provide better service to the end customer. What is the internal workflow most often done that requires the most amount of human effort? Focus on simplifying that - does your software streamline this - if yes you’re on the way to becoming a platform that others would be willing to build upon all you have to do is keep the architecture up to date to handle the increased load.
Big Takeaway -
You won’t start this way, or you might not start this way, but if you do, the workflow and ease of creation is going to be the one thing that wins out, focus entirely on UX/UI and create something that is quicker, easier, better than what other people have and you’ll find success.
Platforms however are great places to look for partners. They are usually always open to partners that help expand or can introduce people to their offerings.
Suite
What is a suite product?
The granddaddy of all software plays where you build/acquire/grow individual parts of a business to integrate natively and own the entire experience in your own controlled walled garden.
G Suite, Microsoft, Salesforce, etc.
These guys buy smaller platforms and stand alone products and integrate them. Or they just build their own.
Why do they exist?
With single products like standalone and platforms eventually you run out of rapid market expansion, the quickest way to increase revenue is to sell additional products to your existing customers. It’s also a lot cheaper.
Cross selling and upselling are the leading drivers of increased revenue once you have product market fit. Add on services like advanced reporting, automation, or additional features can often unlock better functionality of existing products.
A suite makes it easy to cross sell and upsell, it goes beyond MVPs in certain areas and actually builds tools that are full fledged and integrate seamlessly and more deeply than someone building an integration from outside the system.
Is it right for me?
Never say never, but not likely. It’s aspirational but financially often doesn’t make a lot of sense. In the startup world of today, where growth is at a premium, I would never suggest any of my clients have this as an immediate goal. You need a bank account that is deeper than deep and you’re competing against incumbents that have warchests to outspend you at every turn.
The only company I can think of that has dented some of this is NextCloud. But their path to doing it was going open source and playing hard on the privacy angle pitting themselves as a google docs alternative.
What is the workflow play?
A place where you can do everything in one space. This is actually the holy grail, but it’s also the reason I’m writing this right now in a google doc before cutting and pasting it over to reddit.
Even though there are lots of options with new ones coming out daily, once you’re in an ecosystem, going outside of it usually leads to reduced efficiency. When tools are built to work together, a magical thing happens, you don’t want to try other things.
Don’t get me wrong, there are tools for literally everything out there.
But as a go to list of tools that I use everyday -
Google docs
Gmail
Trello
Slack
Most everything else is use to setup then just monitor - which is fine for normal business things, but when you strip back and look at your core of active software that you use daily there’s a 99% chance that it falls into an ecosystem and you’d likely move to a system if they offered a competitor - Microsoft Teams comes to mind.
Slack is great, don’t get me wrong, but I already pay for storage for my Google Account and it’s really really cheap on a business plan to upgrade to unlimited storage - I’m also willing to bet Google could do a better job of searching through a Slack like interface to also suggest items from other places. It’s not an if, it’s a when.
Take Away
Suites sometimes are just a combination of tools that people offer, usually parts of a platform that are built on one another - when you’re going after market share you always want to think of a core product then build things that compliment it.
The answer is not to build them all upfront, but to build them over time.
Remember again - data, recommendations, then automation.
If you have a roadmap make sure that it’s headed in this direction - it’s amazing how many companies don’t emphasize data collection and reporting early on.
This is how you build trust with an audience - show them what’s working and what’s not and make it easy to grab insights.
What does all this mean for our topic?
Today, right now in 2020, I’d focus initially on an add-on or standalone product play.
Pick a strong partner or integration in the space - find a way to compliment what they offer that will help them earn more clients or make more money. If your product can do that, a larger company will jump at the opportunity to help you out.
Trust, I know this from partnering with the big ones in consumer - Amazon, Google, Apple etc. if your product plays into or assists in their narrative there is almost always a co-marketing deal to be struck. The only caveat is you have to ensure that there is no direct conflict with the main partner. If something isn’t part of their core business you’ll be ok for a while.
In B2B this becomes even easier - everyone is looking for growth - know how the companies measure growth - hint for certain sectors it’s adding data either quantity or amount. They get paid more the more they manage or the more records.
If you can help their platforms grow you’ll win.
Your product should make your partners look great. Figure out things that can add more value or unlock more data within your partners. Most all of them allow for you to sync and move data in, use this to your advantage.
submitted by lickitysplitstyle to startups [link] [comments]

How do I break it to management that I'm not fine with being overworked constantly?

Here's the tea.. I'm 5 years in at a B4, working in advisory. Currently a senior, treated as a manager by everyone in the department except the partners who indicated that I won't be promoted yet because "I need more experience".
I'm very efficient, speed through simple tasks, mentor those below me etc etc. My reviews are amazing, all 5s and always commended for going above and beyond. But lately I'm feeling the burden of not only having to manage the job (planning, budgeting, invoicing, client point person) but also having to execute.
I just flat out don't want to do it anymore. I'm sick of the environment, the partner expectations, lack of recognition, not getting what I deserve. This is compounded by the fact that I'm working from home in lockdown and my usual ways of de-stressing are gone. It's simply not ok to sit in front of a computer from 8 am to 7 pm (at least) every single day, only breaking to shit or eat. Luckily my weekends have been a bit better recently but even then, the weekends seem way too short to fully recover from the last week's madness.
I'm realizing that it's simply insane to expect one person to handle all of this.. And I'm a dumbass for even starting the habit in the first place. Why should I have to eat lunch in front of the computer AND constantly work overtime to meet deadlines? That should not be expected, that should be congratulated and rewarded. There is clearly a need for more staff. It's disgusting.
I can't concentrate, I'm not giving my best.. And it's so funny that my work is still so highly regarded even when I feel this way.
In my market right now, COVID has completely eliminated all possible opportunity. No one is hiring but of course I'll continue to look. I think it'll be a while so for now my best bet is to just explain to management how unhappy I am, because I just can't take it anymore.
Any advice on the best way to handle this situation? And how you think management may respond to this?
submitted by heavysighs101 to Accounting [link] [comments]

ALL ABOARD THE TRUMP TRAIN! KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN RAIL & USMCA DD

ALL ABOARD THE TRUMP TRAIN! KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN RAIL & USMCA DD

# WSB Learns Chapter 2: An Introduction to the Mexican-American Economy

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/84/Kansas_City_Southern_Railway_system_map.svg/2880px-Kansas_City_Southern_Railway_system_map.svg.png

# Calls

- KSU 7/24 145c

# My motivation

I am a Mexican-American software engineer in the US & avocado farmer in Mexico. I'm here to bring TAQUITOS during these trying times. I have come with fresh research off the tortilla press for my amigos at Wall Street Bets
I'm sitting here getting used to my NEW Gigabyte 17 with NVIDIA RTX that I bought with the TORO PLAY from my last DD on CDN infrastructure & serverless computing. It was quite successful, as Fastly rallied beyond the success of market favorites like Zoom.
I need to get used to the keyboard and writing on non-Macs again so I figured to write about my next play. Kansas City Southern is a very uniquely positioned business that plays an important role in all of our lives. It is the rail the connects the US and Mexico and it will grow with the release of USMCA on July 1st and Trump's infrastructure bill.
My style of investing is principled by exercising common sense and investing in deep market relationships - I am not generally interested in investing in only a product, but how the product fits and its impact on an economic model

# USMCA FACTS

The USMCA is a 1 Trillion+ restructuring

Mexico is critically underbanked and underserved by technology and trade potential. Bullish for CDNs,telecom, fintech, and regulating tech like Docusign.

Agriculture and seasonal patterns in Mexico & the US is robust and symbiotic

Bullish for shipping and supply chain operations (Shopify, Walmart, Costco, rail)

Bullish note on energy markets, where efficiencies will need to increase to accommodate new asset allocations

# Important Relationships

  • Financial services expanding trading opportunities
  • US-Texas economics
  • Mexican-Nuevo Leon economics
  • Texas growing mastery in energy and supply-chain markets
  • Mexican need for increased energy effeciency & market regulation
  • The South Texas Basin & North Mexican potential for natural gas
  • The Gulf of Mexico Liquid Natural Gas pipeline
  • Laredo border, Houston, Monterrey position in world trade.
  • The undoing of economic bottlenecks in natural gas and digital trade

# What to Consider

- My calls are always an exercise of common sense. Mexico and the US have a tightly coupled trading relationship. The USMCA stands to invigorate that relationship and emphasize successes in energy production, manufacturing price parity, and tech-invoked trade access. The exercising of law will result in institutional confidence, resulting in reasonable profits from July-September.

Mexico is Buy American as a nation. It has a tightly coupled relationship with American output.

- NAFTA ends June 30th and the USMCA goes into effect July 1st. The US is the last nation ready to prepare the changes.
- Trump will soon be under pressure for some form of economic stimulus. This may be in the form of an infrastructure bill by the time September or the election rolls around.
- The USMCA modernizes up cross border digital trade and seeks to modernize some structural changes that have transformed in the energy industries invoking industrial surplus. This will increase the rate of exchange
- These changes from Facebook (WhatsApp), Walmart, Amazon, Costco, Shopify, Cloudflare, Paypal, and other important supply chain players like SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS to supercharge trade between the two nations.
- These changes also encourage energy production between US & Mexico, where Mexico has fallen behind and Texas has exceeded.
- NO this DD is not about the obvious auto-manufacturing benefit. It is an important factor but there is plenty of evidence that only focuses on that element of the USMCA.
- Kansas City Southern is one of the ten Class-I Railroads of the US. It is the ONLY Class-I Railroad that connects the US & Mexico and runs along the Gulf of Mexico. This results in streamlined cross-border energy and product trades. This also means that KSU stands to agnostically benefit from economic improvements in energy output and nation building from both the US & Mexico.
- Mexico is an important bulwark nation for the US to bolster as a partner against Chinese economic threat. Its relationship with US is far different than international partners like Germany, India, and Japan. There is a far greater efficiency potential between the two nations across many industries related to logistics, mining, energy, manufacturing, telecom, and agriculture.
- Mexico's higher education and English learners have rapidly increased as Mexico radically approaches middle incomes and its narcotics problem. By most accounts, the US is least behind in terms of social policy regarding The Drug War. The US stands to adapt and benefit most rapidly from the economic bottleneck the Drug War has produced.
- Migration is complex between the two nations. It is arguably a symbiotic relationship regarding wages, education, crime, and currency parity with respects to US & Mexico.

1994, the signing of NAFTA was a consequential inflection point in economic history.

Mexico serves as important trading vector and access point to increase global price efficiencies in auto markets, energy, materials, agriculture, and labor.


# The Product

Kansas City Southern is a relatively small railroad compared to other systems like Union Pacific. You can argue that this is beneficial as is allows the railroad to execute and iterate more rapidly to changes and optimize for efficiencies that larger railroads cannot.
KSU does this with Precision Railroad Scheduling along with other Class-I railroads but to great effect. In simple terms, this means that railroads prioritize the scheduling of arrival and departures over the weight and output of each train run. This has resulted in
  • Greater speed
  • Greater flexibility to economic changes (Amazon, energy, etc)
  • Greater competition to trucking
  • Increased fuel efficiency
  • Greater economic output
  • Reduced costs for rail trade
This is an excellent primary for economic growth.

List of traded goods managed by KSU

Diversified to benefit & reflect Mexican-American progress
Institutional restructuring

Market ineffeciencies will rebalance with USMCA changes.

# The Macroeconomic view of Texas & Nuevo Leon's economic zones

The reality is that there are logistical positions in Texas and Monterrey trade vectors that is strategically advantageous. Monterrey is a trading city located near the southern border that operates as an important global industrial zone for products and services delivered from Samsung, MSCI Financial, Toyota, Siemens, and the like because the region's geography permits it.
The story is quite simple. Mexico needs more energy output. Texas has it. Mexican can grow it. The USMCA is designed to directly benefit the economies of Mexico & Texas.
Monterrey, of course, is not the only important vector in Mexico that KSU falls under. Guadalajara, Jalisco houses Tesla operations and runs global avocado trade alongside the State of Michaocan. There are plenty of other examples.

Two cooperative, regional populists at the helm.

Mexico is primed for American economic bolstering and standardization.


KSU overlaps directly with state growth points


Mexico's untapped energy potential behaves almost like an extension of Texas and south basin opportunities.

KSU ultimately double-dips from the changes.

Texas GDP 1.8T. Mexican GDP 1.2T.

KSU advantages optomizes cross-border trading directly with Mexico's strategic advancement of Monterrey

# My record

I'm fairly conservative in my choice to purchase option or stock. I'm a software engineer that's passionate about education and have really enjoyed exercising my knowledge-base during this investment time. Usually i get really excited about a stock or two at best per year based on certain global developments. These stocks are selected based on powerful and consequential market relationships or competitions occurring in the arena and by simply just participating in the market as much as I can myself.
I have made a fair amount of money with
  • REDACTEDcoin & AMD's computing relationship (Bought REDACTEDcoin at 2k, AMD at $11)
  • E-Commerce and Facebook's growing relationship with small businesses (my first options reached 20x on FB)
  • Privacy [CloudFlare, Big Tech, US, China, and global development]
  • Automation, manufacturing, and battery improvements [Panasonic, FANUC, Texas, Mexico and Japan]
  • Mexican-American trade [Kansas City Union, USMCA, and the Mexican economy]
  • Virtual Reality, gaming, AI with user-experience support, and fintech [Zoomers & you]
submitted by notbrokemexican to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy
Alright CYKAS, Drill Sgt. Retarded TQQQ Burry is in the house. Listen up, I'm gonna train yo monkey asses to make some motherfucking money.

“Reeee can’t read, strike?” - random_wsb_autist
Bitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this:
gainz, bitch


Why am I telling you this?
Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-are-crushing-hedge-funds-again

That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen.
So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you).
If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep.
This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first.

THE RULES:
  1. Understand that most of this sub has the critical reading skills of a 6 year old and the attention span of a goldfish. As such, my posts are usually written with a level of detail aimed at the lowest common denominator. A lot of details on the thesis are omitted, but that doesn't mean that the contents in the post are all there is to it. If I didn't do that, every post'd have to be longer than this one, and 98% of you fucks wouldn't read it anyway. Fuck that.
  2. Understand that my style of making plays is finding the >10+ baggers that are underpriced. As such, ALL THE GOD DAMN PLAYS I POST ARE HIGH-RISK / HIGH-REWARD. Only play what you can afford to risk. And stop PM-ing me the second the market goes the other way, god damn it! If you can't manage your own positions, I'm going to teach your ass the basics.
  3. Do you have no idea what you're doing and have a question? Google it first. Then google it again. Then Bing it, for good measure. Might as well check PornHub too, you never know. THEN, if you still didn't find the answer, you ask.
  4. This sub gives me Tourette's. If you got a problem with that, well fuck you.

This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:
  • Are you new to trading?
  • Are you unable to manage your own positions?
  • Did you score into the negatives on the SAT Critical Reading section?
  • Do you think Delta is just an airline?
  • Do you buy high & sell low?
  • Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap?
  • Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2?
  • Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr?
  • Do you think I'm trying to sell you puts?
  • If you take a trade you see posted on this sub and are down, do you PM the guy posting it?
  • Do you generally PM people on this sub to ask them basic questions?
  • Is your mouth your primary breathing apparatus?
Well I have just the thing for you!


Table of Contents:
I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
IV. Busting your retarded myths
V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo
VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers


Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.
"hurr durr OP retarded, OP sell puts" - random_wsb_autist
Sit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect?
Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:
  1. 28/10/2019: "I'ma say this again, in case you haven't heard me the first time. BUY $JNK PUTS NOW!". Strike: "11/15, 1/17 and 6/19". "This thing can easily go below 50, so whatever floats your boat. Around $100 strike is a good entry point."
  2. 3/9/2020: "I mean it's a pretty obvious move, but $JNK puts."
  3. 3/19/2020, 12pm: "UVXY put FDs are free money." & “Buy $UVXY puts expiring tomorrow if we're still green at 3pm. Trust me.”
  4. 3/24/2020: “$UUP 3/27 puts at $27.5 or $27 should be 10-baggers once the bill passes. I'd expect it to go to around $26.”
And of course, the masterpiece that was the TQQQ put play.
Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it.
I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is?
Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5:
How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?
"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?"
"By several measures, it was about a 5-sigma move, something that's not "supposed to" happen more than once in your lifetime -- or your prehistoric ancestors' lifetimes!
"According to general statistical principles, a 4-sigma event is to be expected about every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day in 126 years. And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,483,046 days, or about 1 day every 13,932 years."

On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:
"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences.
This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's 2007 book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin."
I also took advantage of the extreme 5-sigma sell-off by grabbing a leveraged ETF on the Nasdaq 100, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ. In my plan, while I might debate the merits of buying AAPL or MSFT for hours, I knew I could immediately buy them both with TQQQ and be rewarded very quickly after the 14% plunge."
Ahahaha, fuckstick bought TQQQ at $70, cuz that's what you do after a random 5-sigma move, right? How many of you dumbasses did the same thing? Don't lie, I see you buying 3/5 on this TQQQ chart:
https://preview.redd.it/9ks35zdla5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c90d08494c52a1b874575ee233624e61ac27620
Meanwhile, on 3/3, I answered the question "Where do you see this ending up at in the next couple weeks? I have 3/20s" with "under 30 imo".

Well good fucking job, because a week later on 3/11, TQQQ closed at $61, and it kept going.
Nomura: Market staring into the abyss
"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).
Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:

"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? "
"While it may or may not make sense to buy stocks, it definitely is a good time to sell “volatility.” And yes, you can do it in your brokerage account! Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it."
"So what is the takeaway? I don’t know if now is the right time to start buying stocks again but it sure looks like the probabilities are in your favor to say that we are not going to experience another 7 standard deviation move in U.S. Stocks. OTM (out-of-the-money) Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels."
Good job, fuckfaces. Y'all bought this one too, admit it. I see you buying on this chart:
https://preview.redd.it/s9344geza5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebaef4b1414d901e6dafe354206ba39eb03cb199
Well guess what, by 3/18, a week later, we did get another 5 standard deviation move. TQQQ bottomed on 3/18 at $32.73. Still think that was just luck, punk? You know how many sigmas that was? Over 12 god-damn sigmas. 12 standard deviations. I'd have a much better chance of guessing everyone's buttcoin private key, in a row, on the first try. That's how unlikely that is.
https://preview.redd.it/luz0s3kbb5151.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=7542973d56c42e13efd3502331ac6cc5aea42630
"Hurr durr you said it's going to 0, so you're retarded because it didn't go to 0" - random_wsb_autist
Yeah, fuckface, because the Fed bailed ‘em out. Remember the $150b “overnight repo” bazooka on 3/17? That’s what that was, a bailout. A bailout for shitty funds and market makers like Trump's handjob buddy Kenny Griffin from Citadel. Why do you think Jamie Dimon had a heart attack in early March? He saw all the dogshit that everyone put on his books.

https://preview.redd.it/8fqvt37ama151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b06ee5101685c5274c6641a62ee9eb1a2a3f3ee


Read:
https://dealbreaker.com/2020/01/griffin-no-show-at-white-house
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/bank-ceos-convene-in-washington-with-president-trump-on-coronavirus.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/914736/market-makers--didn-t-show-up-for-work--macro-risk-ceo-says-914736.html
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/finance-banking/chicago-trading-firms-seek-more-capital
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/did-non-qm-just-disappear-from-the-market/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/bruised-hedge-funds-ask-clients-for-fresh-cash-to-buy-the-dip
https://fin24.com/Markets/Bonds/rand-bonds-rally-after-reserve-bank-intervention-20200320

Yup, everyone got clapped on their stupidly leveraged derivatives books. It seems Citadel is “too big to fail”. On 3/18, the payout on 3/20 TQQQ puts alone if it went to 0 was $468m. And every single TQQQ put expiration would have had to be paid. Tens or hundreds of billions on TQQQ puts alone. I’d bet my ass Citadel was on the hook for a big chunk of those. And that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to all the other blown derivative trades out there.

https://preview.redd.it/9ww27p2qb5151.png?width=2485&format=png&auto=webp&s=78f24265f3ea08fdbb37a4325f15ad9b61b0c694
Y’all still did good, 3/20 closed at $35. That’s $161m/$468m payoff just there. I even called you the bottom on 3/17, when I saw that bailout:

"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago
Haha when? I’m loading up in 4/17 25 puts"
"dlkdev
Scratch that, helicopter money is here."
"AfgCric 1 point 2 months ago
What does that mean?"
"It means the Fed & Trump are printing trillions with no end in sight. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom."

"hurr durr, it went lower on 3/18 so 3/17 wasn't the bottom" - random_wsb_autist
Idiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it.
Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags.
Video of Billy & the Fed train

Here's what Billy boy says:
“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”
https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5
Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger.
So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp.

Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS

RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play.
I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply:

Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2.
If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats.

You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later.

RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times.
RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays.

RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to
RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains.
RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS:
So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that.
RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS:
Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this:

Example 1:
Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it.

https://preview.redd.it/gq938ty8e5151.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=734ab7ed517f0e6822bfaaed5765d1272de398d1
Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads)
Then the autists show up:
"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4
Wrong fuckface. You see the max pain at SPX 2975 & OPEX pin coming? Sell them some calls or puts (or spreads).

https://preview.redd.it/7nv23fr41a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14a8879c975646ffbfe2942ca1982bfabfcf90df
Sold 9x5/20 SPX [email protected], bam +$6,390. Still wanna pin? Well have some 80x5/22 TQQQ $80cs, bam anotha +$14,700.

https://preview.redd.it/1iqtpmc71a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df9b954131b0877f4acc43038b4a5a4acf544237
+$21,090 - $10,824 = +$10,266 => Turned that shit into a +94.85% gain.

.cscqb4 rn

You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit.

Example 2:

5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play.

Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750.
Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How?
I have:
47x 2960 calls
-47x 2955 calls

Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have?

46x 2955/2960 bear calls
1x 2960 long call

So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there.
Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad.
And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position.

RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again.


Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS

MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP

Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you!
Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs.

What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables.

Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005.

Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you.


Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR:
2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case)

So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009
After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070
End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392

Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk

2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069
2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194
2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897


Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1263066368414568448

That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively.

Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage.

There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b).

Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway.

$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000.

What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000

And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ.

Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425

$100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b
$100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b
$100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b
$100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b

That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable.

In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK

My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage.
And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular.
And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself.

If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox.

If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets.
And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN".

MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET

On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200."
Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too?
Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:

  • ETF flows. If MSFT goes up and AAPL goes down, part of that flow is going to move from AAPL to MSFT. Even if MSFT flash-crashes up to $1000, the ETF will still "buy". Because it's passive.
  • Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
  • Index rebalancing flows
  • Buyback flows
  • 401k passive flows
  • Carry trade flows
  • Tax day flows
  • Flows of people front-running the flows

And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to

MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER

Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit:

On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.

"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist

Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31.

So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you:
Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines.

https://preview.redd.it/7agm171eh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94b90dcd634c8dc688925585bf0a02c3299f71b
Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here:

https://preview.redd.it/i1kdp3cgh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1e086e9217846547efd3b6c5249f4a7ebe6d9e
In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again.

https://preview.redd.it/fsyhenckh5151.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=03200e10b008257ae15d40b474c4cf4d8c23670f
Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means.
The reversal:
https://preview.redd.it/4xe97l0oh5151.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=07aaa93f6b1d8f542101e40e431edccbc109918f
https://preview.redd.it/v6i0pdmoh5151.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=74d5589961db2f978d4d582e6d7c58a85f6305f9
But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well.
https://preview.redd.it/40j53u8th5151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe39ab51321d0f98149d33e33253e69f96c48e23
Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you.
https://preview.redd.it/43lvafhvh5151.png?width=3705&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef53283cbc0fb97f71c1ba935c0bd747809636e
And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities.

Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG.
Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid.
Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke.
Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week).
And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage.
Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT!
And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do.
Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now.
Rewatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M
And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.”

Don’t baghold!
Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit.
And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc.
And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now.
The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake.
And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing.
Got it? Good.
You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB.

Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO
Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO:

STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka.
STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT.
STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10.
STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5.
STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay.


Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?

  1. Proshares is dogshit. If you don't understand the point in my last post, do this: download https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-historical_nav.csv and https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-psdlyhld.csv. Easier to see than with TQQQ. AUM: 1,174,940,072. Add up the value of all the t-bills = 1,686,478,417.49 and "Net other assets / cash". It should equal the AUM, but you get 2,861,340,576. Why? Because that line should read: NET CASH = -$511,538,344.85
  2. Major index rebalancing June 22.
  3. Watch the violent forex moves.
  4. 6/25 will be red. Don't ask, play a spread, bag a 2x-er.
  5. 6/19 will be red.
  6. Not settled yet, but a good chance 5/28 is red.
  7. Front run the rebalance. Front-run the front-runners of the rebalance too. TQQQ puts.
  8. Major retard flow in financials yesterday. Downward pressure now. GS 180 next weeks looks good.
  9. Buy leaps puts on dogshit bond ETFs (check holdings for dogshit)
  10. Buy TLT 1/15/2021 $85ps for cheap, sell over $1 when the Fed stops the ass rape, rinse and repeat
  11. TQQQ flow looks good:
https://preview.redd.it/untvykuxea151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0a38c0acb088ebff689d043e48466eb76d38e2f

Good luck. Dr. Retard TQQQ Burry out.
submitted by dlkdev to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

The Case for an Amazon Acquisition of MicroVision

Amazon would seem to be the biggest beneficiary of a MicroVision absorption in terms of best overall synergy. Here's a bit of my thinking process on the bigger points...
Interactive Display Vertical
Alexa integration is obvious. Alexa is just the iceberg tip in a whole realm of ID based or controlled Internet of Things (IoT) devices - married to Amazon's Cloud Services (AWS). End goal: total home control and every lock, video doorbell, thermostat, lighting accessory, etc. to support it. Amazon's turf. Industrial & commercial applications as well. Additionally, Amazon Fresh & Dash are made more efficient with ID control - efficiency being the core of Amazon's brand. MVIS patents (see: https://patents.google.com/patent/US20170235429 ) also map out even more interactivity as product cycles unfold. Bonus: Amazon has the extensive resources/reach to create an international compatibility standard for IoT. There isn't one currently. With IDM and AWS https://aws.amazon.com/iot/ driving next level IoT, Amazon has a tasty, valuable alphabet soup.
I strongly believe Amazon was the 'delayed' IDM contract in February. Why? Amazon's deep China ties had them positioned to get an early read on COVID fallout. No company has more negative virus exposure than Amazon. Not just the manufacturing of Alexa/IDM devices... their own extensive supply chain, a sea of Amazon retailers with products tied to China, front line warehouse & delivery personnel at high risk and so on. For reference, a current Amazon ad touts 4 Billion they've spent to reduce risk for employees alone. Bottom line: a 'hold' on new production was prudent. If the IDM contract was with a competitor, (all of whom are far behind in smart speakerdom), it's likely to have moved forward. If you have a burgeoning competitive advantage against a behemoth, you don't delay.
How do you value all this as a vertical? Using Mulligan's 100M in revenue CC missive and a relatively standard 5 to 7 year multiple, you'd have a 500M to 700M baseline. A Craig Hallum presentation to Amazon however projects all the IoT possibilities and formulates a multiple of that baseline. Knowing how M&A goes, Amazon probably seeks a 1.5x to 2.5x multiple for valuation. MicroVision is making the case for far greater. To maximize that potential, they're presenting that case to all the IoT umbrella competition... names we're aware of and perhaps some less obvious technology solutions providers.
Side notes: if the thumb sitting on the PPS is removed, MVIS has an easier time of it. Any valuation here is highly speculative though with so many unknowns and rapidly evolving parts... so take it all with a dose of Zoloft.
LiDar (Consumer & Automotive) Verticals
MicroVision's multiple LiDar verticals... Consumer (near field) LiDar is tied to the IDM and developing IoT universe - with extensive enterprise and commercial opportunities in that as well. Automotive LiDar however is a masked man wearing a green suit dotted with question marks. Mow might Amazon be a fit with that?
Amazon's accelerating drone program potentially has immediate synergy with longe range (automotive) LiDar. Amazon also has autonomous driving initiatives, for reference see https://searchaws.techtarget.com/feature/Amazon-moves-into-autonomous-vehicle-market and https://aws.amazon.com/automotive/autonomous-driving/ As noted in the 1st link, Amazon is insanely motivated to control its own supply chain. On every level.
From a business standpoint, Amazon's drone strategy would look to duplicate their AWS build out as an all-encompassing backbone. Many companies lack resources to develop their own drone programs. Amazon would love to be a 'drone service provider' to all those companies. They're currently at work building drone infrastructure. See: https://www.geekwire.com/2020/amazon-t-mobile-will-take-part-faas-remote-id-drone-monitoring-program/ Amazon's approach to autonomous driving likely follows this same build out pattern, laying out infrastructure to gain tech leverage. LiDar is a fundamental aspect of that infrastructure.
Qualifier: there are many LiDar companies. A deep dive into spec comparisons would take days - if you can even get all the core specs. From the specs we do know, MVIS solid-state LiDar and related IP stack up well in ability, size, weight & power consumption specs. Market fit: TBD. It's reasonable to assume however that any acquiring company is steeped in those specs, more so than we at the retail level.
Are MVIS LiDar verticals and all related IP a fit for Amazon? The synergy is relatively clear. I'm fairly sure Amazon sees the value, especially when packaged with other verticals. What's the valuation of the LiDar verticals if it is a fit? It's... A masked man wearing a green suit dotted with question marks. You would hope it's at minimum on a par with IDM valuation - what are some of your thoughts on this?
AVMicro-Display/Near Eye Vertical
Amazon isn't making any AR or VR headsets or glasses anytime soon. See https://www.amazon.com/adlp/arview So what's the value here? Sticking it to Microsoft.
Thanks to how JEDI has transpired, Amazon and Microsoft have a 'because we can' war going on: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/amazon-says-jedi-award-fatally-flawed-in-rebuttal-to-microsoft.html Two companies with egos, money and slingshots full of lawyers. A chance for Amazon to control elements of the IP in HoloLens would be über appealing under these circumstances.
The week of May 18 was watershed for the MVIS/MSFT HoloLens relationship. The excitement of a teardown quickly gave way to the reality of Display Alignment Trackers, secret sauce and shadowy osmosis disclosure. "Lots of companies have MEMS," says Kipman. A poorly chosen phrase. So why choose MVIS, Alex? Why poach MVIS employees? The end of Kipman's 'fireside' I thought was particularly revealing... he circled back to make the point of saying, 'why are we all concerned with who gets the credit in the build out of mixed reality?'
If Amazon holds the IP rights to a fundamental component in HoloLens, Microsoft will definitely be concerned. Amazon's deep dive into the inner workings and 'intelligence' aspects of the IP along with their resources is probably not something that makes Microsoft comfortable. So how does it play out?
If Microsoft is truly uncomfortable, they bid up the vertical. If not, they don't. Therein probably lies the elusive final answer as to how Microsoft ultimately values their relationship with MicroVision. However, with key MVIS component placement inside H2 now fully revealed, along with the reported demand, expanded global sales, increased manufacturing output, and the fact Sharma pointed out the value potential in splitting off a vertical... I'm betting on Microsoft discomfort. With a massive grin.
So of all the potential companies that would have an interest in acquiring MicroVision, Amazon tops my list. Is there a company with any better synergy?
submitted by QQpenn to MVIS [link] [comments]

The Chaos Report - Harvest Week 1: Harvest Crafting || [TEXT VERSION RELEASE]

DISCLAIMER:
Please do be aware that these text-based posts will always be slightly late, compared to the video versions and as such might feature topics that aren't quite time-sensitive anymore. Values and advice will be updated, as well as tips and recommendations, to fit with the DAY OF THE TEXT RELEASE, so don't fret, this will still serve as a good guideline.
Creating the Chaos Report, as a video, takes about 10 hours of work from research, script writing to editing and releasing it.
These text posts take another 2-3 hours of time, as I need to pack all the information into equally as understandable bits as the video, which means I cannot release them simultaneously, as my schedule simply doesn't allow this amount of work in 1-2 days and any further increase in the development schedule would make the information be more outdated than I'm willing to risk.
I sincerely apologize for this inconvenience, but I hope that this will still provide the desired information for everyone!
END OF DISCLAIMER
Links to various stuff:
Hello everyone, LunaWolve here.
Welcome to the Week 1 TEXT VERSION episode of The Chaos Report for 3.11 and the Harvest challenge league!
Do keep in mind that these are educated guesses or predictions and as such they might not be entirely accurate.
SEGMENT 1: CURRENCIES & COMMODITIES
Exalted Orbs are first, as always.
The OG Exalted orb has seen an absolute explosion in price this first week.
I mentioned how the exalted orbs could see a bit of a turbulent league with harvest, but I was not expecting them to absolutely smash every record they've previously had.
They are currently sitting at around 190c, but has already seen a peak of 200+c, at the end of the first week. It's on a small decline for the moment, but I wouldn't expect this decline to be extremely substantial, as the league mechanic itself does not provide a lot of additional exalted orb drops, but heavily devalues chaos as a whole, due to the free "REFORGE" crafts, that players would normally use hundreds of chaos orbs to achieve.
I'd imagine the patch from today is going to heavily effect the prices for exalted orbs, so keep a close eye on the market for the next few days.
If access to the exalted and annul+exalt crafts in harvest league increases, you can expect them to drop accordingly. They'll likely remain above 140c for a vast majority, if not all of the league, simply due to chaos being so heavily disvalued due to the crafting mechanic as a whole, that exalts will not really be able to drop into more managable areas.
Additionally, exalted orbs are also used for a lot of meta-crafting mods and slams that cannot be done by the current league mechanic. So with a lowered supply, due to no extra drop quantity in every map, chaos being heavily devalued and a comperatively increased demand compared to previous leagues, exalts are at an all-time high.
I'd advise care when trying to invest into exalted orbs, as the market for them is extremely unpredictable in the current economic climate.
The Hunter's Exalted Orb followed our predictions fairly closely, rising up quickly to a high plateau that it currently still resides on. A small fluctuation is to be expected, around 50c or so, for the next little while, as more players start crafting and start getting into the higher tier mapping process.
They're currently sitting at an absurdly high 570c, as they're frequently used to create perfect Tailwind boots at the current moment, by using the harvest crafting mechanic. As the tailwind mod is the only "Critical"-tag modifier on Hunter-influenced boots, it's a guaranteed slam with the harvest craft and as a result, the exalted orb has seen a huge price increase.
Similarly affected by the chaos orbs low value, it further increased the prices overall. I would expect these orbs to stay extremely expensive throughout the league, barring any changes to the crafting mechanic as a whole. As a result, if you get one of these, check the weekly prices for hunter exalts and consider if it's worth selling or using it to make your own tailwind boots.
The Awakener Orb has followed the predictions from last week's episode to the letter.
It is currently sitting at around 570c, which is pretty much the exact value predicted based on last league's value and the slight increase in demand due to the need for additional double-influenced bases. This orb is also part of the current tailwind-boots craze, as you can ALSO guarantee an "Elusive"-slam, by using the same "critical"-tag slam craft from harvest, that you'd use for the Tailwind mod as well. As a result, simply having a RedeemeHunter boot and slamming the "crit" mod twice, will ALWAYS result in a Tailwind + Elusive boot, that can then be improved upon or finished up, through whatever other crafts you'd want.
They are likely going to stay fairly pricey as well, similar to the hunter's exalted orb, so expect the prices to fluctuate, but stick around the current pricepoint of 550+c for a while. Once more players get their awakening level 8 atlas setup, I'd expect the prices to potentially slowly dip, as more and more supply will become available for these. However, as more and more exalt/remove options become available as a result of the 3.11.1 patch, we will also likely see a further increase in demand for double-influenced items, further increasing the demand.
Whether or not the supply outstrips the demand or vice versa, will remain to be seen. My bet would be on the prices rising.
The Crusader's Exalted Orb has been sitting at around 380c~ for a while now and seems to simply stick around this area with a few dips and drops here or there.
The mods provided by it are very popular for a variety of builds, so I'd imagine the demand to not drastically decline any time soon. With many players also picking up physical-based abilities, the always popular explosion-mod has also been in fairly high demand.
The harvest crafting also affects this pricing a bit, as it's quite easy to acquire a lot of the desired mods of this influence in specific, using very common crafting options provided by the seeds.
Expect the prices for this one to stick around this area for a while, as long as any future patches don't touch influence crafting or makes the influence-craft seeds more common, of course.
The Warlord's Exalted Orb has seen a fairly rocky time in this league overall. It started off fairly high, like all the other exalted orbs, but has slowly but surely rocked it's way towards the 380c pricepoint.
It currently sits at that 380c pricepoint, but it is expected to reach the below-350c mark in the following few days.
We are likely going to see it dip further and further, as the league goes on, due to many starter builds being large fans of the modpool, while more advanced builds that are created later down the line in any given league, are normally a bit less reliant on the mods from this particular influence type.
Lastly, the Redeemer's Exalted Orb. As always, this orb is the least popular of all the exalts. It is currently sharing it's price with the OG Exalt, at around 190c, after a DRASTIC decline from the previous few days.
While the elusive mod for boots is very popular, the rest of the influence's portfolio of different mods is not exactly something that most players look for in their high-investment items. The new mods and skills added by GGG have also not changed this dynamic a great deal, which lead to the redeemer's orb being the least popular one in this league as well.
As a result, these orbs are likely not going to see a major change in their usual league-cycle, meaning they'll stay roughly around the OG Exalted orb prices, with a slightly higher average price per orb.
I'd imagine these orbs to be about 10-20% more expensive than OG Exalts, once the market stabilises itself a bit more.
As always, if you intend on buying any of these orbs just covered, make sure to keep an eye on this EXTREMELY volatile market.
Alteration Orbs have completely skirted my predictions and done the complete opposite. They were sitting at a comfortable 1:10 chaos ratio for the majority of the first weeks, which is a better ratio than any league I've previously covered on the chaos report.
However, due to the released patch that changed cluster jewels and the frequency of add/remove and add+remove crafts, alterations have skyrocketed and are likely going to hit a high-mark of about 4 or 3:1 soon. Due to a generally low supply of alteration orbs available at the moment, this rapid rise could lead to a major shortage and thus a huge pricepoint for the next coming days.
I'd heavily recommend avoiding alteration crafting for now, until the supply/demand stabilises and the prices return to a normal stage, which I'd expect to be around 4:1 or 5:1 for this league.
The reason for my mis-reading of the original alteration predictions is fairly simple:
I have mis-read the announcements from GGG and the teasers we got regarding the harvest league, as a more target-crafting oriented one, than a chaos-spammy one. I was expecting to see a LOT less chaos re-roll crafts than we have gotten in the actual league mechanic, which tainted my predictions for the alteration orbs.
Since everyone can basically chaos-spam their items and indefinite amount of times with no effort whatsoever, the alteration orbs, which are used to guarantee SPECIFIC high-rolled mods, just aren't as useful anymore to the common player that just wants to craft a bit of their gear every once in a while.
Alteration orbs have, of course, lost none of their value in terms of being the best crafting method to guarantee one or two specific rolls, but they definitely have taken a hit in their overall demand.
Additionally, chaos orbs being devalued as a whole, means that the alteration:chaos ratio is also a bit more skewed than you'd normally expect.
The less chaos-spam is available and needed, the more alteration-crafting will be done and as such, the more alterations will be used.
The Ancient Orbs are last on our list, as always.
I don't want to toot my own horn here, but we were bang on with our predictions for this league.
As a result of the headhunter nerfs and the overall league mechanic scaling very little with the item in particular, the prices of ancient orbs have seen about a 25% dip from the usual league prices.
They are sitting at around 40c which is slightly above what we had predicted for the entirety of this league and will likely continue to stick around this point at average. The prices are currently on a slight rise, at around 40-45c, but they are extremely unlikely to hit the 50+c areas throughout this league, barring any unforseen circumstances like bugs or other abuses.
We will check back with this one next week, but if it stays around the area we predicted again, we'll likely drop it from the list.
I'll quickly give my predictions for the different maps and fragments for the overall league.
Shaper Fragments have, for the first time EVER, dropped below the prices of their elder-style brothers.
As we predicted, the heavy-handed nerfs to everything shaper-related over the past couple of leagues and especially the starforge nerfs for this particular one, have broken the loot-tables back. This resulted in a VASTLY lowered interest in people wanting to fight the Shaper as a whole.
The fragments are currently going for about 19-23c, averaging out to around 20c a piece, for a whole set going for just around 80c. Currently, every uber-elder fragment dropped by the shaper is worth more than the entry-price to the fight itself, but there's still very little demand for the shaper uniques as a whole, resulting in a very weird scenarion, where you can gain guaranteed profit by running shaper, but still not wanting to, simply because the time investment is likely not going to be worth it.
The jackpot drop here is still the Starforge, which is currently sitting at around 1ex, but is rapidly falling lower and lower. With it being an extremely rare drop however, many players are simply following more profitable endeavours.
My recommendation: Sell your fragments, unless you have absolutely no other choice or feel extremely lucky. The time invested into the shaper fight is simply not worth it, compared to even just running maps. Dropping one or two T15+ maps will make you twice as much money as the entire shaper droptable will likely do.
The Uber Elder Fragments are also at a fairly low price, as a direct result of the shaper fragments being so cheap to acquire.
The elder fragments cost about 30-33c and the shaper ones go for about 100-115c each. Thus, a whole set will run you about 270-285c, which is one of the lowest entry prices we've had for Uber Elder bossfights.
The loot-table is fairly decent for this league, as the eternity shroud of a very popular chest-piece at the moment. Additionally, 3-mod watcher's eyes are always worth multiple exalted orbs if sold unidentified and make up a large bulk of the profit you can make with each Uber Elder fight.
With exalted orbs being so expensive, chaos-orb wise, it could be highly profitable to simply buy up Uber Elder sets in chaos and then hoping for some decent drops to sell in exalted orbs, as a singular exalted orb will nearly pay for the entire run.
3-mod watcher's eyes are currently going for about 6-7 exalted orbs, or an equivalent of about 1100-1300~ chaos. For boss-killers, this is definitely a worthwhile endeavour, I'd argue.
We're likely going to see the prices slowly increase for the sets and drop for the loot, as more and more players will get access to elder and shaper as a whole, as they progress their atlas, making the fight itself more accessible across the board.
The Elder Fragments have seen their best league ever, comperatively to the shaper ones, as mentioned earlier. They're currently sitting at around 20-29c, making an entire set cost about 100c total.
The main drop from elder is still the 2-mod watcher's eye, as the other uniques provided don't really offer the current meta-builds much. However, the Chaos version of the Impresence, as well as the Physical version are still fairly alright, in terms of value, so you're not entirely bound to a singular item's worth, if you intend on farming this one.
I'd recommend running them, to be entirely honest, simply for the chance to gain that watcher's eye drop, which could kickstart a lot of your currency gains. About 100c per set is really not that much to lose, if you naturally acrue them over time. I would advise against buying sets tho, for obvious reasons.
The Synthesis Unique Maps have fallen by about 30c since it's last league pricepoint. They're currently sitting at around 40-45c and seem fairly steady here.
Due to a nerf to the unique rings they drop, which was their primary purpose and interest for players, the overall demand for them has decreased drastically.
They are still extremely worthwhile to run, in my personal opinion, as the synthesis map-modifiers can provide a large amount of value if you get lucky with the right ones and the rings usually DO still make back the money you spend on the map or would gain from selling it.
There are also still jackpot rings that you can get filthy rich with, but the chance to acquire one has drastically been lowered as a result of the 3.11 nerfs.
The Cortex on the other hand is as expensive as always, currently sitting at around 1.6 exalted orbs, or about 300c. It still provides one of the best boss-loot tables in the game, with the Maloney's Mechanism and the Bottled Faith, as they are still extremely popular and expensive uniques.
Akin to the synthesis maps, this one will likely see a rise in prices as the league goes on, similar to previous leagues.
Simulacrum Splinters and the Fragment itself represent our newest addition to this segment.
Currently, the splinters are sticking around a 1.1-1.5c ratio per splinter, resulting in a bought fragment price of about 405c. The fragment iself is sitting at around 470c for the convenience of not having to buy 300 individual splinters.
Overall, this is an extremely expensive fragment and should be handled with great care, as you don't want to start a Simulacrum you can't finish, at a pricepoint of about 2-3exalts each.
That said, the simulacrum itself is currently likely to be the most profitable endeavor in the entire game, when it comes to raw currency drops or wealth acquisition as a whole.
As we've shown last league with our Simulacrum episode, the drop-rate on high-value items, currency and fragments inside of the Simulacrum is unrivaled by any other league mechanic.
If you can afford it and manage to beat it reliably, I'd imagine running the Simulacrum could be extremely profitable at the current moment.
For most players however, selling the splinters in moderately large stack sizes, such as 30+, would result in a better option.
One last tip, for aquiring these, build up a HUGE amount of seeds in your garden as T1 plots, to then pop them all at once during a delirium encounter. While you're inside of your garden, the delirium timer is stopped, so you can spend as much time as needed to kill every single last mob. Usually this will result in A: a 6-reward delirium encounter, as well as B: about 30-40 simulacrum splinters as a result of the sheer amount of monsters killed.
SEGMENT 2: UNIQUE ITEM WATCHLIST
The Kintsugi first up on our list.
As predicted, it has seen a rather large increase in popularity, resulting in a 6-linked version of it running at about 3exalted orbs at the current moment. This is likely an inflated price, as I'd imagine the prices to be more around the 400-500c range, but we will see how it continues onwards in the next episode.
The increase in popularity is due to the addition of the Winddancer keystone on the passive tree, which allowed many builds to easily and effortlessly pickup the very popular combination of the keystone and the chest armour, without having to sacrifice much at all in terms of passive points or keystones.
We will likely see an increased decline on the prices however, as there is nothing stopping an influx of them to flood the market, as they're not exactly the rarest unique in the game.
The Surrender unique shield is up next on the list, and has followed our prediction as well.
It is currently among the most popular unique items in the entire game, resulting in an extremely high price of about 5.5 exalted orbs, or a little over 1.0k chaos. You can acquire this one by way of the Uul-Netol breachstone boss encounter. The breachstones themselves are currently costing about 45c, which is actually fairly cheap, considering a singular one of those shield drops will net you around 21x the cost of entry.
Might be worth considering, while the prices for the shield are still high.
They are likely going to fall in the next little while, as more and more players start providing the supply for the shield on the market, as the breachstones themselves are not extremely hard to acquire.
One with Nothing is last on our current list.
As we had covered in the previous episode, this one has seen an extreme rise in popularity throughout much of last league. With the addition of the new slam skills and making more skills available to be used with it, as well as the nerfs to the fracebeaker gloves, this jewel has seen an absolute explosion in terms of prices early on.
It reached a peak of about 906c at the start of the league, but has seen a rather steady decline over the past following days, which is likely going to continue until the 500-550c pricepoint, at which point we can expect a short plateau.
The best way to farm this one is still the Simulacrum encounter. Simply buy up splinters or the finished fragments and go ham. This adds to the entire "Great loot-table" situation I mentioned earlier with the simulacrum. It's REALLY profitable at the moment, for people that can run it.
SEGMENT 3: META & ATLAS ANALYSIS
We predicted that the newly announced melee league, was going to be the usual spiel from GGG in our last episode.
Announce melee buffs, actually end up nerfing a large portion of melee builds in the process, buff a few other parts to make them remotely viable and also, of course we can't forget that, buff the hell out of spell casters and summoners, because they clearly need it.
As a result, Melee character seem to be around the 5th to 6th most popular archetype in the current league,, as I predicted in the last episode.
Necromancers are, as always, leading the pack with a staggering 28% playrate, as they're still the easiest and most brain-dead (haha get it, cause zombies eat brains) build to play in the game and especially powerful at the beginning of a league, due to the extremely low equipment requirements.
Directly following are ED/Contagion tricksters and the myriad of differnet mining builds, with Ball Lightning being the skill of choice for about 80% of them. Tricksters are sitting at 11% and the Saboteurs are sitting happily at their 10% for the moment.
One last thing I want to point out is that the 8% Gladiator representation here is not actually a melee-heavy one. Gladiators are mostly used for bleed-bow builds at this point, which is why they're so high in the rankings in this league, as getting bleed-based items is fairly trivial with the harvest league mechanic.
I expect more and more melees to drop of the ladder as the ladder progresses into the higher level areas, due to the slow playstyle of 2-handed weapons leading to more deaths and GGG ALSO nerfing a large amount of defensive abilities for melees in the process of the 3.11 patch, such as Vaal Molten Shell, which was one of the only real defense options to stay alive with when you had to get in close and personal.
As a result, expect more and more casters and summoners to show up over the course of the league and more melee archetypes to disappear from the ladder entirely.
As for the Atlas Predctions, I currently don't have a lot to report here.
I'd advise focusing on maps that are quick to run, to get a lot of seeds, or simply go with the usual great-maps-to-run list.
A few maps in particular that look extra juicy with the exalt prices right now, are alleyways, arcade and precinct.
I had to do a LOT of research and experimentation on the harvest crafting for the following strategy segment, so I did not have enough time to really invest myself into researching the atlas and what maps are the absolute best. This is just my personal opinion on the matter as of right now.
I'll update you in the next episode with, hopefully, a more complete rundown.
SEGMENT 5: STRATEGY & DISCUSSION
With the Meta and Atlas predictions finished, let's move onto the strategy and discussion segment. I'll be covering the basics of harvest crafting here, providing a useful spreadsheet and showing some examples of more advanced crafts.
By this point, everyone should have set up a basic garden with a few plots, some storage tanks and potentially a Horticrafting Station or two. Which particular setup you chose is not really important, as long as you're able to grow everything you intend on growing.
In the background you'll see a quick runthrough of my garden. I will not be providing a layout for it, as the specific layout doesn't really matter, it's more about giving you a general idea of where things COULD be placed, so that you might be able to adjust whatever layout you ALREADY have towards a more efficient version.
That said, however, I'd recommend a garden layout that emphasizes storage space and T1 seed plots, as many as possible, over a layout that favours aesthetics or higher-tier plots. With the 3.11.1f changes, higher tier maps and especially T16s are dropping an absolute TON of seeds. From my own experience, you will require about 4-5 T1 plots of each color, to not end up sitting on seeds before the first ones are fully grown. You won't fill up all 15 plots, but if you run into a bad RNG streak and end up getting the same colored seeds multiple times in a row, you will require at least 4-5 of the same colored plots.
As such, have them at least in your seed storage, to switch out colors whenever needed, so you aren't wasting any growth cycles, if you aren't willing to re-do your garden with about 15 T1 plots in mind.
The colors of each seed correspond to their crafts and are divided into 3 categories for each tier, representing their appearance rate.
First are, of course, the "common" seeds. These will be what you will find most of the time, when planting any colored seeds. Then are the "uncommon" seeds, out of which you'll usually find a few in each full plot that you harvest of any given color. Lastly, there's the "rare" seeds. These will only show up every once in a while and you should do your best to use the crafts they provide to their absolute best potential or save them for later, as you won't get them very often.
  • Yellow seeds come with the following crafting options: -- Life and Attack related crafts as the "common" options. -- Socket changes related crafts as the "uncommon" options. -- Cold and Speed related crafts as the "rare" options.
  • Purple seeds have the following options: -- Caster and Physical related crafts as the "common" one. -- Socket change related crafts as the "uncommon". -- And Fire and Currency related crafts as the "rare" ones.
  • Lastly, Blue seeds have the following inclanations: -- Defense and Lightning related crafts as the "common" options. -- Link change and Unique Item related crafts as the "uncommon" options. -- Chaos related crafts as the "rare" options.
Those only cover the T1s, but to be entirely honest, most players will not require a specific breakdown of T2 and higher, as the frequency that you acquire those with is so low, that you're likely going to simply plant every single T2 and up seed that you get anyway, so specifying which one is rare and which one isn't, outside of giving you the names of the absolute best seeds to sell, as I've done earlier during the commoddity section, does not seem like a worthwhile use of our time.
Just be aware that each tier of seeds gets progressively rarer as a result of only being dropped by the lower counterparts. You require fully grown T1s to drop T2s. Fully grown T2s to drop T3s. And of course, fully grown T3s to drop T4s. As a result, simply double-check the list provided earlier to make sure you're not willy-nilly planting extremely profitable seeds and using them for fun, when there's profit to be made.
Outside of those specific ones, just go ahead and experiment with them. Have fun, craft some items, make some profit with the crafts, or just slurp 'em for juice for the better seeds later on.
Moving onto the actual specific of the crafts, here's a quick rundown of what each keyword will actually do to your items:
  • Randomise = Divine Orb equivalent craft for ALL the specific mods with the descriptor given.
Example: "Randomise the numeric values of the random Physical modifiers on a Magic or Rare item", from the Purple T1 "Wild Hellion", will re-roll every VALUE of the mods on your item with the "Physical" tag.
  • Reforge = Chaos Orb equivalent craft for the ENTIRE item.
Example: "Reforge a Rare item with new random modifiers, including a Caster modifier", from the Purple T1 "Wild Ursaling", will re-roll the ENTIRE item, but guarantee AT LEAST 1 mod with the "Caster" tag.
  • Remove = Annulment Orb equivalent craft for ONE RANDOM mod with the given descriptor on your item.
Example: "Remove a random Life modifier from an item", from the Yellow T1 "Vivid Weta", will remove ONE random mod with the "Life" tag.
  • Augment = Exalted Orb equivalent craft for ONE RANDOM mod with the given descriptor.
Example: "Augment an item with a new Chaos modifier", from the Blue T1 "Primal Maw", will add ONE random mod with the "Chaos" tag to your item.
  • Remove and Add = A combination of "Remove" and "Augment". Annulment + Exalted Orb equivalent craft for ONE RANDOM mod with the given descriptor on your item.
Example: "Remove a random non-Lightning modifier from an item and add a new Lightning modifier", from the Blue T1 "Primal Dustspitter", will FIRST get rid of any mod on the item, that does NOT have a "Lightning" tag, THEN it will add a mod with the "Lightning" tag. This means that you CANNOT block suffixes or prefixes simply by filling them up with random mods. You'd have to fill either the prefixes or suffixes with 3 mods that each have the "Lightning" tag, in order to FORCE this one to choose a suffix or prefix respectively.
With those keywords covered, you will likely have started to already get a rough idea for just HOW powerful this crafting can be, when applied properly.
Outside of simply being able to essentially fossil or chaos spam items a near-indefinite amount of times, you can, for the first time ever in POEs history, Annul and Exalt TARGETED crafts. If you have been browsing reddit for the last few days, you will have seen some absolutely crazy items popping up, with literally all T1, best possible rolls and best possible mods on any given item.
This is due to the ability to use and combine these new crafts in order to create entirely new crafting ways.
Here's one example of such a new crafting way:
Let's assume we have a Wand, like this one shown right here. We're looking at some pretty decent stats overall and with any other league, outside of a double-veiled craft, a lucky annul, a raw exalt slam or simply bench crafting it, our options would not only be fairly limited to improve this wand, but also be entirely irrelevant, as players would never consider investing so much work and currency into a wand with an item level of 73.
However, Harvest league changes this in a big way, through two specific limitations that are applied to each craft:
Firstly, any given craft can only be used on items, that are AT MOST 10 levels higher. This means that this wand can be crafted with any seed that is higher level than 63, but NO seeds that are below that item level. As such, a large hurdle of using currencies on these types of lower-iLvL items is gone. Where you'd save your exalts and annuls for the absolute best of the best, these crafts CANNOT be saved for the higher level items, due to this restriction.
The second part, is that crafts are (unless you have a near infinite amount of Horticrafting Stations) time-limited to the one instance that you harvested the seeds in, meaning you will HAVE to use it immediately or lose it.
These two aspects combine to make for some very fun and interesting choices, that would normally never occur if the crafts were simple currencies that could be used freely, such as an exalt or an annul.
Getting back to the wand, let's say we wanted to change the critical strike chance, as the Tier 4 roll is really nothing to write home about. We have a few different choices for crafts, in order to make this happen:
Firstly, we could simply "REMOVE" the mod with the corresponding "critical"-tag craft. We could "REMOVE" it with a "non-XYZ"-tag craft, like the lightning one mentioned earlier. Or we could simply decide to replace it with a different version of itself, or any other "critical"-tag craft, using the "REMOVE AND ADD" keyworded craft of the "critical"-tag assortment.
This particular one mentioned, comes from a Blue T2 Grain by the name of "Primal Viper". It is one of the most expensive and rare ones out there, so should not be used without proper forethought, especially as it's also a T2 and used in very very powerful crafts that I'll mention in just a bit.
However, for our purposes, we're going to assume we want to make this wand the best it can be.
As such, we will use the craft that reads as follows: "Remove a random Critical modifier from an item and add a new Critical modifier"
If you remember me mentioning it earlier, it will FIRST remove the mod that exists and then choose ANY mod of that particular modifier type. As a result, you can these particular crafting options to simply re-roll the TIER of a given mod, if it's the only mod of it's kind that a given item can receive. This wand however, can receive another "critical"-tag modifier.
The critical strike multiplier suffix, which we have hit with our craft, as shown right here.
With this one simple crafting operation, we've now changed a mediocre wand that had a pretty sub-par critical strike chance suffix, into a vastly superior one, featuring a critcial strike multiplier suffix instead. This method can also be used to re-roll resistance tiers, life tiers, energy shield tiers, physical damage tiers, etc. etc. The list goes on near-indefinitely, for as many crafting-tag types as there are in the harvest league mechanic.
One further use of this particular type of craft, the "REMOVE AND ADD" keyword, is that you can simply use the crafting bench to craft any given mod with such a tag onto an item that doesn't already have such a tagged mod, in order to then essentially "exalt" a mod of that type onto the item, by REMOVING the crafted modifier and ADDING an entirely new one.
Through this combination and many others, which would be way too plentiful to explain in this thread, it is possible to achieve crafts that were previously absolutely unimaginable. If you need some inspiration for crafts, simply head on over to the subreddit of Path of Exile and check out the "Item Showcase" tag and just look around in the posts from the last day or two. There's PLENTY of insane examples of the entire crafting system being applied, resulting in previous mirror-tier items left and right.
There are 2 further things I want to cover before ending this discussion.
Firstly, here's a quick list of seeds you should look out for, as they're potentially valuable and likely more worthwhile to sell than to plant yourself, unless you know exactly what you're doing. Keep in mind that for these seeds to be as worthwhile as possible, you will want at least iLvL 75 versions of the seeds, to make it possible to use their crafts on iLvL 85 items and lower:
  • Primal Maw Seed (Blue T1)
  • Primal Viper Grain (Blue T2)
  • Primal Scrabbler Grain (Blue T2)
  • Primal Blisterlord Bulb (Blue T3)
  • Vivid Thornweaver Seed (Yellow T1)
  • Vivid Nestback Grain (Yellow T2)
  • Vivid Vulture Bulb (Yellow T3)
  • Vivid Abberarach Bulb (Yellow T3)
  • Wild Chieftain Grain (Purple T2)
  • Wild Spikeback Grain (Purple T2)
  • Wild Bristle Matron Bulb (Purple T3)
  • Wild Thornmaw Bulb (Purple T3)
  • Wild Brambleback Bulb (Purple T3) !!This one is extremely rare and pricey!!
  • Wild Infestation Queen Bulb (Purple T3)
Secondly, I will provide a spreadsheet that will show you a list of influence-specific mods that you can 100% guarantee using the harvest-crafting method, starting specific iLvLs with the correct bases.
The way this one works, is that it shows the affix you can guarantee on the left, the second column will show you the minimum item-level requirement to roll the specific mod, the third column will tell you what specific item-type the base needs to have and the last column will tell you which crafting seed you need in order to guarantee the outcome. Note here, that it's NOT necessary to have an augment (aka. exalt craft) in order to get these. It's enough to simply use one of the "Reforge with guaranteed X-type mod" crafts at the specified level with the correct base, in order to guarantee the outcome mentioned in the first column.
This spreadsheet was NOT compiled by me, so it might contain a few errors, but from my personal testing and research it seems accurate so far. This table was created by a reddit user with the name of TheSennosenMan, who, of course, will also be credited on the screen and in the spreadsheet itself. Thank you for providing such a valuable asset to the community!
There are a ton of different things that I'd like to cover, as the harvest crafting system is incredibly complex and the most powerful individual mechanic we've ever had access to, but unfortunately my time is limited and so is yours. As a result, I'll simply point you in the direction of further information or ideas to pursue with a short list of things for now:
  • Check out the subreddit for crafting guides on specifically "Tailwind" boots. The entire process is described in multiple threads there. Similarly, you can find guaranteed ways to get yourself an Explosion chestpiece as well.
  • Try crafting a few cluster jewels (especially small ones), with this mechanic. It leads to really easy currency gains, as there's such few mods you have to actually hit, that it's pretty easy to target and re-craft the ones you don't think are amazing. Especially Energy Shield and Life bases are fairly popular for this.
  • Try looking for items to re-craft and flip for profit. Simply search for an item that already is nearly finished, but has one or two bad rolls on it, to then use your own harvest crafts to re-craft them and make a large profit. Especially jewelry here is very popular, such as high-res but low-life jewellry, which can easily be re-crafted into the hundreds of chaos area with a simple "REMOVE AND ADD" life craft.
This concludes the extremely long strategy discussion segment of today's episode. I hope this what I have just mentioned made some sense to you and furthered your understanding of the league's mechanic, as well as the potential that it holds. If you'd like to see more information about harvest crafting in the next episode as well, such as exact examples of an entire crafting process or similar, please let me know in the comments down below.
The discussion segment is specifically there for me to provide you with the information that you request and require, so don't be shy about asking for specific discussions in the comments!
SEGMENT 6: DELVE UPDATE
You can find in the comments down below... it's a long one, after all...
CHECK OUT THE COMMENTS!
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How to not get ruined with Options - Part 4a of 4 - Finally, the TRADES!

Post 1: Basics: CALL, PUT, exercise, ITM, ATM, OTM
Post 2: Basics: Buying and Selling, the greeks
Post 3a: Simple Strategies
Post 3b: Advanced Strategies
Post 4a: Example of trades (short puts, covered calls, and verticals)
Post 4b: Example of trades (calendars and hedges)
---
In parts 1 and 2, I explained the basics for options. In parts 3a and 3b I explained simple and more advanced options strategies, but all of this does not help much without concrete examples. These two last posts (4a and 4b) conclude my introduction related to options. I will show some of my key trades, explaining the why, the how, the entries and exits, and potential mitigations in case of losses. Most gave great returns, and I had a few small losses. Overall, in the past few months, I have been lucky to play along with the market, and the high volatility had a positive impact. Hopefully, nothing wsb worthy (although few of them might qualify :)). I wanted to explain the basics first, then show the trades last, as I did not want anyone to try to emulate these without understanding how/why they worked.
First, here are the high-level idioms that drive my investments:
These idioms are pretty straightforward, and should not be too controversial. Overall, I am pretty market neutral, with a bullish tint. And as I explained before, I prefer selling options than buying them. My trades reflect that, and I avoid making trades that could damage my portfolio significantly if the market went up or down significantly. People who get ruined with options do not take this into account and are just gambling.
Other key things about trading in general, and options in particular:
Now the moment we have been waiting for, some of my trades:
The short naked puts or covered calls:
I only do pure covered calls when the market has dropped significantly, and use the recent market conditions as a floor. March dropped quite hard, and I am not convinced that we would reach it again soon, but I still have to prepare for it. That being said, the months of March to June have been really good for covered calls as the market traded up first, then sideways, with high implied volatility. I usually target shares that are solid or did not go up too much, so the March floor is not too far lower than my strike. I usually sell naked puts after a few down days in a row and covered calls after a few up days in a row. And if the market is farther from the floor, I trade safer names when the market goes up, and target high beta when the market dropped significantly.
I am not giving you a full list, but let’s say that it was not hard, and still is, to find good names that return 1-2% per month AFTER accounting for a 15-25% share drop. Yup, you read that right, it does not work in normal markets, but it is the case right now. Even if $WM, $WMT, $INTC, $NNN, $EWW, $DLTR, $COF, $BAC, etc. dropped by around 20%, I would gladly pocket my 1-2% premium, and scoop these at a huge discount. Even if it dropped further, I can continue rolling the puts until the market bounces back. Some of the high beta names include $CCL, $REM, $DIG, $BUD, $JETS, $XOP, etc. For a high beta, I am targeting 3-5-10% or more of premium, but I usually try to offload them when they go up significantly.
But there are few other riskier trades that are worth calling out:
$DKNG - DraftKing: 11.8% in ~3 weeks.
I forgot about the IPO, and got in the game 5 days later. Although, I am not a gambler, and the stock went up already, but I had a feeling that RH fams would jump on it (gamblers beget gamblers), and that would give a floor to the stock. Volatility was high, so selling naked PUTs made sense.
May 7: SELL -1 DKNG 100 15 MAY 20 22.5 PUT @ 1.06
Per contract - Max risk: $2144 - Max profit: $106 (4.9% of max risk)
May 8: SELL -1 DKNG 100 19 JUN 20 22.5 PUT @ 2.15
Per contract - Max risk: $2035 - Max profit: $215 (10.5% of max risk)
As you know the max risk of going to $0 is possible but highly improbable, so RORAC (Return on Risk-Adjusted Capital) is much higher than these 4.9 to 10.5%.
The $1.06 premium was one week before expiration! I sold the MAY and JUNE PUTs at the same time. And the price was at $24 already. If the price dropped, I would continue rolling my PUTs until I am profitable. The price went up, I rolled my MAY PUTs just before earnings (and a day before expiration), to take advantage of the earning volatility, and avoiding expiration day.
May 14: SELL -1 DKNG 100 15 MAY 20/19 JUNE 20 22.5 PUT @ 2.15
Per contract - Max risk: $2035 - Max profit: $215 (10.5% of max risk)
So one week later, I bought back my MAY PUTs for $0.25 (pocketing already 3.7% of the profit) and sold the same JUNE contract as the week before with a better price and an overall premium of $2.15 (same as the week before, despite paying back the $0.25! And the stock was already up in a week. Can you believe that shit? Volatility increase definitely helped. Thanks RH gamblers!).
June 1: BUY +1 DKNG 100 19 JUNE 20 22.5 PUT @ 0.05
After a bit more than 3 weeks of holding, I decided to buy back all my contracts for $0.05 per share, for an overall 11.8% profit on risk. I pretty much reached max profit already, no need to take more risk, with 19 days to go to expiration. FWIW the stock was at $44 by expiration. It was way too much for my taste, with no premium worth the risk of any new trade.
Could I have made more profit buying shares, calls, or synthetic shares? Sure. But there was no guarantee on the direction, timing, or amplitude of the move. Here, I won almost 12% with a high probability of success, even if the stock barely budged or dropped a bit. And since 6/19 expiration, the stock dropped to $33 now. It’s hard to predict when to sell. I want many singles and doubles with few losses, instead of once in a while home runs with many losses in between.
As it dropped for 5 days to $33, I recently sold some PUTs for a $22.5 strike again:
June 29: SELL -1 DKNG 100 21 AUG 20 22.5 PUT @ 1.25
Per contract - Max risk: $2125, max profit: $125 (5.8% of max risk)
Because the PUT was deep OTM, the premium was low. The stock will have to drop by more than 35% for me to start losing money, and I can still roll my PUTs then. That seems a good trade. Wish me luck!
You can see here, that you have to look at your max risk, your max profit for every trade you are getting into, as well as the chance for them to be profitable.
$USO / $DBO / $USL: 12% in 2 months
Here is one that absolutely did not go to plan initially, but I was able to turn it around.
First, the trade that led to the disaster:
April 17: SELL -1 MAY 15 20 4 PUT @ 0.35
Per contract - Max risk: $365 - Max profit: $35 (9.5% of max risk)
Remember that USO split 1:8 on April 29, if you want to look at the numbers. On 4/17, USO was worth $4.20. Oil kept dropping and dropping for weeks and weeks, until that Friday where I decided that it was finally a good time to get into oil (like a bunch of other suckers). The lowest oil price in 40 years, etc. My trade could absorb a 14% loss in USO before I started losing money, so it did not feel too risky, and I could roll the PUTs if needed. USO rolled all their future contracts earlier that week, they were already into May Futures. Yeah, contango was a concern but seemed manageable (or so I thought).
Well, except that on Monday 4/20, oil blew up. What was bad, became an awful day. Oil tanked hard because April futures dropped, and some people paid to get rid of their contracts. Tankers started to get full, too much oil, and not enough space. USO dropped to 3.75, it was still above my break-even point of $3.65, but the volatility spiked, so the value of my short put increased a lot, that was some heavy losses. Why did I go into that trade on Friday, gosh?!?
The volatility was so high, every oil trader was running around like a headless chicken, RH gamblers were taking much heavier losses than mine (because they started buying USO long before me, oil was going to go back up, that was a sure deal! Right?). I decided to wait one more day, to see how the dust would settle. On Tuesday, USO dropped even more because now it started impacting next Month's Future (May). Tuesday was the April Future expiration, so trading was all over the place. USO dropped to $3, well below my break-even point, volatility was still high, my losses were twice as big. There was a strong possibility that May Future expiration would behave the same as April, and the rollover of May Futures to June Futures would end up in a real quagmire due to an even higher contango. USO was not the right tool, I messed up, no way moving forward, even rolling my PUTs are not going to do it, USO will drop faster than the premium I can collect. Get out, get out, get out...
April 21: BUY +1 MAY 15 20 4 PUT @ 1.42
I bought back my short PUT at more than 4 times the premium price. Gulp. That hurts.
Taking a step back, this was an extreme situation and not a normal loss with a stupid long term thesis. And I lost a bit of money jumping at the wrong time. A negative future price is not a common occurrence.
USO was the wrong instrument to profit from oil, it even dropped down to $2.11. And never recovered its value from 4/17 despite oil being higher than that day. I made a mistake, but there must be better instruments that can tackle contango. Enters DBO and USL. DBO has a 6-12 month away contract, so very little impact from contango. USL has the same number of contracts from all months (next month, month after next, etc..., until the 12th month). It is mostly impacted by the contango on the front months (so for 1/12 of the value, or a bit more), but it is not as volatile as USO (USO since changed their composition too, to buy multiple months futures).
Oil blew up, volatility is extremely high, many oil traders (and RH gamblers) got ruined, but oil is bound to go up eventually. The initial trade to sell volatility through selling naked puts, and rolling as needed until oil goes back up, without being killed by the contango still seemed sound with even less risk and better rewards this time around.
April 20: SELL -1 DBO MAY 15 20 6 PUT @ 0.63
Per contract - Max risk: $537 - Max profit: $63 (11.7% of max risk)
April 20: SELL -1 USL MAY 15 20 12 PUT @ 1.05
Per contract - Max risk: $1095 - Max profit: $105 (9.5% of max risk)
April 21: SELL -1 DBO MAY 15 20 5 PUT @ 0.90
Per contract - Max risk: $410 - Max profit: $90 (21.9% of max risk)
April 21: SELL -1 USL MAY 15 20 11 PUT @ 2.25
Per contract - Max risk: $875 - Max profit: $225 (25.7% of max risk)
Notice that I sold the first batch on April 20, as I was still losing money from USO. The volatility spiked, and it was too good to pass. This is a key reason why you should never put all your money on one trade, but only a few percents at most. That way if the things are not going as planned, you don’t lose a ton, and if you can find a more advantageous position, you can double down if you have some dry powder left (but DO NOT overdo it!). It’s all about the proper sizing of trades and overall risk. I sold the 2nd batch when I closed my losing USO trade when oil dropped further and volatility increased even more! 22% to 26% potential profit on ATM puts? Just wow!
The plan for the exit is to close for $0.05 or roll to the next month for further profit. I sized my DBO and USL trades a bit more than my USO trades, so I would make up for the heavy losses. And I did roll in May and closed the June contracts for $0.05 both DBO and USL. Their prices both creeped up slowly, and the volatility dropped to something normal. DBO and USL trades were extremely profitable, and despite the heavy USO losses, the overall profit was still quite good.
Today, the price of DBO and USL is a bit high for a good profit/risk profile with naked short PUTs, however, we have some other strategies.
The verticals:
Most of my bread and butter is on selling naked puts, and/or selling covered calls, but sometimes I dabble in verticals. Here are some examples:
$UBER: 13.2% in a month
This is an example of waiting for the right time before you trade. End of May, the market went up by 36% since the bottom, it started to be over-extended. Although SPY could continue higher, it was time to think about a reversion to the mean. I needed to find a share that would continue to struggle for a long time, even as Coronavirus was lingering. I hear the news that LYFT is taking over UBER’s market and that UBER is still struggling, with potential layoffs. That seems a good candidate, and UBER has a good day at $36, let’s see what we can make of the numbers.
May 29: SELL -1 UBER JUL 17 20 42/45 CALL @ 0.40
Per contract - Max risk: $260 - Max profit: $40 (15.3% of max risk)
So I keep my $40 profit per contract as long as UBER is under $42 at the July 17 expiration. I did not pick $42 randomly, this was actually above the top that UBER reached in February. So the struggling UBER would need to go over its pre-corona numbers for me to lose money. Unlike naked puts / covered calls, where you can just be patient and roll over and over, sizing for verticals is important, the potential for full losses is a real possibility, and will happen. Sure, you could try to roll your short call and hope that the stock price will drop, but you may just end up amplifying your losses. If you really want to do that and continue with the risk, it’s easier to roll your short puts in a bull spread as the market will eventually go up.
In any case, UBER continued to go up a bit, struggled at $38 (so not even close to my vertical), then reversed. I put an order to close my position at $0.05, as there was almost a month left until expiration, and I already almost reached my max profit.
June 22: BUY +1 UBER JUL 17 20 42/45 CALL @ 0.05
$SPY: Various
I also have been using SPY verticals directly as the market bounced back like crazy. I earned more than I lost, and because I am overall positive delta, even if I lose a bit of money on my edges, I am still very profitable.
For shit and giggles, one trade to show how you can take advantage of the high volatility:
June 5: SELL -1 SPY JUL 17 20 330/333 CALL @ 0.91
Per contract - Max risk: $209 - Max profit: $91 (43.5% of max risk)
June 26: BUY +1 SPY JUL 17 20 330/333 CALL @ 0.08
Profit of $83 per contract (39.7% of max risk)
June 5, SPY was $320, 45% higher than the bottom 2½ months ago, and I had hard time believing that after the market really thought that SPY would go back to pre-corona level with still phase 1 not over, no clear treatment, vaccine many months away, and potential for a 2nd wave (News flash: It’s happening before even the phase1 finished). Trees don’t grow to the sky. Again being, overall positive delta, even if this vertical had a loss, I would still profit from SPY going over my short calls. As I said earlier, I am a reversion to the mean guy, with a bullish tint. I can’t stand losing money when the market is going up (because the market could always continue going back up).
Here is another trade, not so good this time, so I don’t paint an overly rosy picture:
May 12: SELL -1 SPY JUN 19 20 305/308 CALL @ 0.79
Per contract - Max risk: $221 - Max profit: $79 (35.7% of max risk)
June 18: BUY +1 SPY JUN 19 20 305/308 CALL @ 2.48
Ouch - loss of $169 per contract (76.4% of max risk)
SPY blew way past my short and long calls. It dropped a bit before expiration, so I was able to avoid a full loss.
My verticals above are bearish spreads when I think the market will revert to the mean. But here is an example of a bullish spread:
April 6: SELL -1 SPY DEC 16 22 200/180 CALL @ 4.85
Per contract - Max risk: $1515 - Max profit: $485 (32% of max risk)
May 12: BUY +1 SPY DEC 16 22 200/180 CALL @ 3.95
Profit of $90 per contract (5.9% of max risk)
I sold the vertical a couple of weeks after the bottom, with blood in the street, even some of mine, volatility was still very high. With this trade, I would have lost money if SPY was less than $195 in more than 2 years. Heh, I could even roll the puts if the short put was still ITM in 2 years. The only reason I bought back and closed the trade was that it was using a non-negligible buying power for the next 2 years. That is a long time to earn the full $485 per contract. Have to watch out for opportunity costs too in some other trades.
The hedge:
Here is another construct that I found interesting. Again, taking advantage of the current high volatility. Back in early June, as the market bounced to $320, I wanted another bearish hedge, but this time more efficient than just selling a vertical. I wanted a good protection for my long delta, but that’s not free. And I don’t like to lose money if the hedge is not used, so what to do?
June 5: SELL -1 SPY NOV 20 20 370/380 CALL @ 0.57
Per contract - Max risk: $943 - Max profit: $57 (6% of max risk)
I picked November expiration because I expect that we will still be in the middle of the Coronavirus quagmire. $370 is almost 9% higher than the SPY top. I doubt that the economy will be back full speed by then. Again, I am positive delta, so if SPY somehow reaches $370, I may have to forgo all my overall gains between $370 and $380, but I won’t lose money overall. And then I bought this bearish vertical:
June 5: BUY +1 SPY NOV 20 20 245/250 PUT @ 0.57
Per contract - Max risk: $57 - Max profit: $443 (777% of max risk)
Here, I used the money from my short bearish CALL spread to buy a long bearish PUT spread. As long as SPY does not end above $370 by expiration, my hedge is free. If the market drops significantly my bearish PUT spread will be very profitable.

Once again, it's a long post, so that's all for today.
In the second part of this post, I will show how I used calendars to make some very profitable trades.
I will also explain a more advanced trade that I used to hedge against big losses in a normal market (setup in low volatility), so you can handle more gracefully bear markets ahead of time, and not sell in panic. You can’t use it now, but it could be helpful next time everything is great, and the market is getting overheated a bit.

And finally, remember to always size your trades properly. Do not make one trade create a big loss in your portfolio. Do not overextend! It's way too easy to be over-leveraged with options, take the full risk into consideration.
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Post 1: Basics: CALL, PUT, exercise, ITM, ATM, OTM
Post 2: Basics: Buying and Selling, the greeks
Post 3a: Simple Strategies
Post 3b: Advanced Strategies
Post 4a: Example of trades (short puts, covered calls, and verticals)
Post 4b: Example of trades (calendars and hedges)
submitted by _WhatchaDoin_ to investing [link] [comments]

Session 8: Market Efficiency - Testing Market Beating Schemes Efficient Markets Hypothesis is Nonsense! Betting market efficiency Asset Pricing and Sports Betting Efficient Markets

Market Efficiency Explained . There are three degrees of market efficiency. The weak form of market efficiency is that past price movements are not useful for predicting future prices. If all The degree to which markets incorporate information is one of the most important questions facing economists today. This book provides a fascinating study of the existence and extent of information efficiency in financial markets, with a special focus on betting markets. Because the Asian market is more efficient, the best sports traders are only able to beat the market with a couple of +EV%. They counter-balance the lower edge by placing a high volume of trades at high sums. Because the soft bookmakers limit winning players, sports traders will eventually have to move into the Asian market. Pinnacle is the standard bearer of betting price efficiency. Its closing prices offer a reasonable way of estimating your expected profitability. Nevertheless, my investigation has shown that the efficiency underlying their betting market is more nuanced than it would first appear. Covering betting market efficiency in a single article is a tough task. If you are interested in the subject then there is a lot of extra information out there for you. For instance, Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets by Leighton Vaughan Williams. This book has a lot of interesting material you might like.

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Session 8: Market Efficiency - Testing Market Beating Schemes

The efficient market hypothesizes that a financial market is what recognized as informationally efficient. In this video, 3 forms of market efficiency are demonstrated in greater details. What happens if you bet one of these offshore or in Las Vegas? Here's your crash-course on bad lines. ... BTCL, sports betting market efficiency, and how good is your P? - Duration: 6:23 ... Tobias J. Moskowitz, the Fama Family Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, studies asset pricing, portfolio choice, risk sharing, market efficiency, real ... The efficient market hypothesis states that prices of stocks already reflect all information and you can't systematically outperform the market. I think the efficient market hypothesis is complete ... In this video I talk about market efficiency in sportsbetting, and why some markets are more efficient than others. For those of you interested in checking out the lines or betting here's the link ...