How to Manage Your Sports Betting Bankroll - Betting 101

Bankroll Management Part I

Bankroll management is arguably the most important concept to understand to maximize your chances of success (or rather, minimize your chances of failure).
Consider this scenario: You magically become a world-class handicapper and can win 55% of your bets on -110 lines. Did you know that with a $1,000 bankroll and flat betting $100 per game at -110 lines, you would go broke ~14.0% of the time after 100 bets? After 1,000 bets the chances of you going broke are a more staggering ~31.0%.
Why does this happen? Despite a positive expected value, you’re betting too much. And this gives you a high risk of ruin.
Kelly Criterion
With a 55% win rate on -110 lines, the Kelly Criterion states that 5.5% of your bankroll is the ideal wager size to maximize the median return of your portfolio. So, what if we flat bet $55 instead, which represents 5.5% of our bankroll. What’s our risk of ruin then?
After 100 bets? ~2.0% After 1,000 bets? ~13.0%.
Better, but still significant risk of ruin.
Some might be surprised to see any risk of ruin at a 5.5% bankroll allocation. One of the assumptions, however, that the Kelly Criterion relies on is that bet sizes are a percentage allocation of your portfolio and not a fixed amount. Among sports bettors, a fixed bet amount is frequently referred to as a bet “unit”.
Bet Units vs Bet Allocation
Record: 72-53 +13.7 units
Patriots -7.5 2 units
Sports bettors love to measure their performance or display their picks as a function of “units”. Most people use it and because of its widespread adoption, it’s easy to communicate between parties. Since it’s become the de facto unit of measurement for sports bettors, it is widely accepted that the best way to practice bankroll management is to 1) determine your wager size and 2) never deviate from that bet size.
Let me explain the risks behind that strategy and why Cleat Street doesn’t recommend it.
Flat Betting $55: Expected Value of 1,000 Bets
We all know how to calculate the expected value, or EV, of a single bet. All you need is three inputs:
1) Payoff of a win (Pw): $50
2) Payoff of a loss (PL): -$55
3) Probability of winning (p): 55.0%
EV Equation
So - if we want to determine the EV of 1,000 bets, can we just multiply $2.75 x 1,000 and get an EV of $2,750?
If you had unlimited funds, then yes. While there is variance around our expected win percentage, our ending bankroll would be normally distributed with a median of $3,750 ($1,000 starting bankroll + $2,750 EV). Without the constraint of going broke, the distribution of the ending bankroll looks as follows:
Bankroll distribution
However, most of us don’t have unlimited funds. We are constrained by our bankroll, so we must account for the possibility that we lose our entire bankroll at some point between Bet #1 and Bet #1,000. As a result, we might not get the chance to finish making all of the bets.
Monte Carlo Simulation – Flat Betting
To determine the likelihood and impact of going broke at some point between Bet #1 and Bet #1,000, we can use a Monte Carlo simulation. We simulated the 1,000 bet opportunities 10,000 times resulting in the following risk-return profile:
Risk of Ruin: ~13.0%
Expected Return: ~4.8%
Median Return: ~ $2,645
Expected Portfolio ROI: ~265%
Without the benefit of an unlimited bankroll, the risk of ruin decreases our EV by nearly 5%, decreasing from $2,750 to ~$2,645. Starting with a bankroll of $1,000, our median ending bankroll is ~$3,645 but has a distribution as displayed below:
Ending Bankroll Distribution
Bet Allocation of 5.5%: Expected Value of 1,000 Bets
When you bet a percentage of your bankroll, the expected value calculation changes a bit. Your payoff outcomes are now framed as a percentage:
1) Payoff of a win (Pw): 5.0%
2) Payoff of a loss (PL): -5.5%
3) Probability of winning (p): 55.0%
EV Equation
To determine the EV of 1,000 bets, however, we cannot just multiply 0.275% x 1,000 and get an EV of 275%. This is because each bet compounds on one another when you are betting a percentage of your bankroll.
Ok – so instead we determine the expected value by saying that you expect to win 550 bets (55% x 1,000) and lose 450 bets (45% x 1,000) and calculate by compounding the returns as follows:
Median Calculation
The above computation reflects the median of the distribution of outcomes as well as the most likely outcome. Yes, the most likely outcome is that you win exactly 550 games, which would generate returns of $2,967. However, this scenario happens only 2.54% of the time. [1] The rest of the time, you either win more than 550 games or less than 550 games.
[1] Binomial probability inputs: Prob (Success): 55%, Num. Trials 1,000, Num. Successes, 550.
Binomial Probability Calculator
We get the following risk-return profile:
Risk of Ruin: 0.0%
Expected Return: 5.0%
Median Return: $2,967
Expected Portfolio ROI: ~297%
“So you’re telling me, I have no chance of losing my entire bankroll, and I can increase my EV? That sounds too good to be true.”
You’re right – the above metrics are true, but they don’t tell the whole story. Although the risk of ruin is zero, there are many scenarios where you could still walk away a loser. To properly assess, we need to take a closer look at the distribution of outcomes.
Lognormal Distribution
The returns generated by using a bet allocation bankroll management strategy follow a lognormal distribution. A lognormal distribution is frequently used to describe the price of financial assets and effectively states that 1) the lowest that your bankroll can go is zero, and 2) your returns have a long-tail to the right.
Visually, the distribution of the ending bankroll after 1,000 bets looks odd when plotted on a linear scale:
‍5.5% Bet Allocation - Linear Scale
When plotted on a logarithmic scale, however the distribution appears normal (hence the name “lognormal”):
5.5% Bet Allocation - Logarithmic Scale
As you can see in the distribution above, there are scenarios where you still walk away a loser after 1,000 bets. In fact, betting 5.5% of your bankroll in this scenario will lead you to losing money approximately 20 percent of the time. To properly assess the risk-return profile, we’ll have to take a deeper look at the full distribution of outcomes in Part II.
What we’ll find is that although the Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy that maximizes median wealth in the long run, there are still considerable risks that may not make it ideal for most bettors. An underlying assumption is that it requires you to know your true win probability, which is impossible. In Part II, we explore Kelly Criterion in further depth and show how you can use the same principles to tailor a bankroll management strategy that better fits your risk appetite.
Bankroll Management Part II will be posted tomorrow
submitted by cleatstreet to sportsbook [link] [comments]

How I started to appreciate the game again after a bad beat on a drunk night.

9 months ago I started playing poker, I was aware of the risk and decided not to spend more than 20$ by playing micro and slowly learning the game. BUT, I then got addicted to the game.
I played for a couple of months without losing or winning big amounts, then I started platying while drinking (ye, addictions..) and without much focus. Long story short: I ended up losing aroung 150$. It wasn't an issue as I have a salary, but the impact on my humor was HUGE. I was losing. I felt like a total idiot. That started to impact other sides of my life and I started to dodge social events to play more.
At that point I started analysing my games, reading more books and learning more theory. I played micro for another couple of months and ended up winning 80$ playing consistenly (in my virtual bankroll I was then at -70$). I was feeling good, I worked hard to regain half of what I lost so far. But one day -out of the blue- the disaster: I got drunk, I joined an high stakes table, I allin'd my KK, I lost 230$. Here we go, at -300$, I can say I become slighly depressed and stopped played for 15 days. I didn't share that with anyone and felt so sad and stupid about my behaviour at the tables. The bad beat was real and obsessive.
At that point my 0 to 300$ challenge started. I decided to get serious, to play sober and to step-up my games. In the last 4 months I got a +300$ by just playing 1c/2c and some 2c/5c NL. I never gambled more, most of my hands I respected the opponents and played my odds decently, I stopped thinking that I NEEDED to recover money. I spend a lot of hours at the tables and read/watched tons of poker contents. When I hit +300 I felt like a gained some freedom, it was more than relief.
The amount of money of my poker story is ridicoulos, I know. But what I wanted to share is different. I had the worst possible approach: for months I played to recover money, to gamble and get to the result by some shortcuts. I now realized that it's better to think to poker like a sport and I should deinitely play the game to enjoy the situtations, the calculations, odds size, bet patterns, the trash talking of the donk that just lost his all-ins and the flush draw at the river.
I feel happy to finally share my small story with the community. If you are in my situation, please try to get some discipline, stop getting obsessed by what you won or what you lost, and try to love the game instead of the money behind it.
(english is not my native language, apologies)
TLDR: I lost 300$ on a drunk night and I then learned discipline and proper BR management. I wanted to share the story with the community since I never told it to anyone else.
EDIT: Thank you all for the comments. It really makes me feel less isolated!
submitted by ArmorOfTheFifthAge to poker [link] [comments]

Psycho Betting and Stats 301-Degenalytics Question

Before you even start watching this for entertainment and see if you get offended by this un-P.C. content. Don't be a pussy.
If you can't handle it, leave this thread. If you can, then you may proceed to the next level.
I've been scatter-brained, ire-filled, soul-searching and lost after a 7-day Degen Marathon that brought a shit load of misfortunes. I used to hate social media, but I've learned how to wield the soc. med. sword like a fucking Degen Jedi. I'm going to promote an honest cause where I seek to be victorious in the end. Just you watch you fucking doubters, haters, blockers, scammers. How much grit and intellect would the average fucking person have to endure what I've gone through in the last fucking 48 hours and still come out alive with a sense of greater purpose?
Had about $400 to $500 in righteously earned bonus dollars earned through impossible grinding degen mission that came pretty close to accomplishing (91%).
I would have had some imaginary >$600 BR by now, but instead the roll-over deadline caused the entire deposit to be forfeited and I manage to salvage some $100.
Due to a bonus rollover scheme, 80U of my balance was stuck in bonuses and if I fail to accomplish the roll-over by the deadline, it all gets forfeited.
With a $500-$600 balance, I could have somewhere at $900-1000 by now after a 20-2 W-L record on European football on Wednesday.
How did I get that record yesterday, by sampling a bunch of solid pre-game picks and live betting using my own fucking brain. I consult with the finest in capping. With $10-$20 bet sizes, That would have put me up maybe $15x16 = +$240 at minimum. $1000 was the imaginary bank roll. As of today, betting with $1 units, after Monday-Wednesday's successful run, while Tuesday was a -$50 blip, I converted $100 to about close to $200 (40U).
🤪🤑Psycho Betting🤑🤪:
I learned the art of psycho betting. Taking some well-advised 10U and 30U psycho bets that put my bankroll up a significant amounts, but a big loss does the opposite. Yesterday I manage to hit 4 grand 30U slams in a row, however many on juiced lines, so each $30 bet one returns about $15-20. Thus my bankroll grew nearly +100 units and sits close to $200 from the initial $100 I manage to salvage after that bonus robbery.
If you want to fucking learn the art of Psycho-Betting to the extremest and be successful at it, fucking put in $100 in Bovada (remember to use money that you can afford to lose) and get that fucking bonus for the purpose of looting the bookies in a successful vengeance scheme. This guy is a fucking Artillery:
Fucking hit more than 4x30U grand slams yesterday and some 10-20U cherries on top. I tailed his free picks and other through consultation [Haha fucking reddit/sportsbook will probably ban me for promoting another tout, :)].Of course with my $1.5U size on a crippled bank roll, I cannot grow it to as much as I wanted to using GoTime's techniques. I would have been at another +$400 if I had $6 units. It's a high risk and high reward system, but if you are confident with your picks you go big on it. If you lose it, then you grind back with smaller 10U and 20U bets to try to get back to part to be able to do another 30U bet. The goal is to be like 2-1, 3-0 on 30U grand slams a day. There is some level of sustainability and back up plans to execute in case the 30U bet did not work out. It is very improbable for you to lose 10 in a row on well researched picks that the experts in the community have common agreement on. A lot of the times, the lines shift to reward you less for the pick since big money is already on the pick.
Use the chart on:
Here is a Nice Calculation to do:
📚📑💻Stats 301 Question in Degenalytics💻📑📚**:**
Lastly I asked anyone in the past few days to do a Stats 301 question with Degenalytics Context: To fucking determine the probability that an avg Joe with a $100+100 Bonus Bank-roll or $500 + 250B bank roll can actually pull off the $3000/$7500 grind in some number of N months betting with supposedly 2 full months of real sports (N-2) getting Obliterated by COVID-19. I want you to give me an analytical calculation or a simulation of your work and give me all the possible scenarios.
Then give the final verdict of if that number converges to 0.000% or 100.00% that the average Joe would succeed his false-hope mission for a successful rollover.
In other words think of it like this: If the average joe bets his entire bank roll 12 or more times (roll-over is not x10 because of bookie juice), what is the probability that he will still end up in the green? Also assign a tilt probability factor that the Average Joe would go on some emotional tilt spree to end up bust again? And make it even harder by eliminating 2-3 full months of real sports (N-2.5) and having to bet on Bovada's limited shitty ass lines and shitty live odds.
If you fucking want to eliminate the -2.5 months, then allow the average joe the freedom to bet on N months of e-sports [hahah] and see where that goes.
I had a bad experience betting on e-sports for 2 months and only end up -15-20U. I'm not saying that I lost because I suck at e-sports betting or I tailed the wrong people. The Bovada lines are super shitty and limited. Most of the time, on live esports, all you see are dashed out lines as if they fucking know what the rigged result is and prevent people from doing hedge bets or try to bet opposite spreads when they are winning to guarantee an insurance 1-1 with minimal damage incurred to their bank-roll. The live betting experience on e-sports on the Bovada platform is so bad that you are guaranteed to lose in the long run. Fucking hell Bodog/Bovada even offered me a $250 deposit on 100% bonus after the Rudy Gobert day in Mid March. They advertised the joys and wonders of getting rich betting off esports.
I was so tempted to deposit, however I kind of over-slept and missed out on the dead-line so they closed the bonus offer. Pretty good relief that I did not fuck-up my real credit card and bank account by falling for that scam again. It was an accidental Grace of God moment to fucking avoid that E-sports deposit marketing scam.
BONUS Questions:
A: Calculate the number of months needed and number of successful bets required for the conservative degen 1u bettor to grind out the roll-over playing
$2.00 tug of war with the bookie.
B: Calculate the odds that a professional capper who knows how to adjust unit sizes (1u-5u), do parlays once a while, will succeed the roll-over in some
N-2.5 months or add some e-sports to have fun to keep the N factor.
C.1: Calculate the conditional probabilities for the bettor succeeding in the mission if on the first few days of betting:
i) He loses bet 1 for about $20.
ii) Wins bet 1 for about $20 to earn $17.5.
iii) Goes on a 3 game losing streak
iv) 5 game losing streak
v) Positivity case: The guy got lucky and nearly doubled his bank roll on a decent run from day. Up +100U or $200. [I'm sure that out of bad discipline the average Joe would still go -200U in the long run with a pretty high probability.]
C.2: Determine the mathematical scheme on how the Bookies can use your first few losses to eventually put you in a 60+:40- (Greater than 60% locked in bonus, less than 40% of your deposited money). Bonus:Locked funds ratio.
The Jinx-King answer: It converges to zero [hahaha], but I really am interested in know what other scenarios math and stats people have come up. And your mathematical approaches and formulae used to generate possible scenarios and probabilities. But I think it is safe to say that for the average Joe,the answer is 0.00% success rate. Bodog/Bovada knows this exactly and refuses to put a hiatus on the roll-over deadline. Instead they keep it going so that people can try to wager on e-sports and lose their entire bank roll. They are only interested it getting 100% of your locked funds so that they can buy expensive cruises, yachts, beach mansions, resort packages, etc in Aruba or some other tropical place. Where you got millions of desperate Americans, Canadians in struggling economies with lost jobs and zero positive cash-flow. About 10% or so or perhaps even more deposit money into off-shore gambling websites hoping they can roll-over their bank-roll some ridiculous number of times and make a few bucks to put food on the table.
In fact, it makes matters worst being jobless, having zero cash flow and having locked funds in scamming bookies. If you are not good at casino or sports-betting games, you would have:
A: Lose your entire deposit for failing to grind it out properly.
B: Not grind it out on time on whatever dead-line the roll-over was.
C: Even if you did successfully grind that shit out using conservative 1u betting and play $2 tug of war with the bookie, you will end up just wasting your time grinding it out for hours and hours on end. It would have been better for you to fucking find a job at some farm helping out with harvesting crops or work in meat plants so that food does not go to waste. I bet you I can make more money than your $2 tug of war in one a day picking off cans and bottles off the streets in some exercise walking/running/biking + collection routine then selling it to the recycling center for $0.05-0.25 a unit. Trust me at my university, I spot maybe about 50-200 empty/partially driven cans and bottles left on desks, lecture halls, the floor, libraries, work areas, etc. Supposed that I harvested that shit, I would be making $5-$20 a day collecting it all and going to the recycling center once every week.
The fucking company knows this COVID-19 closure shit and want to use it to their advantage to continue to rob millions of their customers. Last week, I tried to call customer service, chat help, email, etc. and management has spoken to plead my case to delay the roll-over dead-line in a pro-rated time frame so that customers with locked balances can resume betting with their full balance when Game 1 of any Major League Sport actually returns. They give me the same bull-shit over and over saying they decline my request. For what reason?
  1. The terms and conditions written in fine print for accepting the bonus conversion challenge. "Rules are Rules."
  2. They were aware my deadline of June 22 at 19:23 ET was approaching soon. They knew I was on a mission to salvage my bank roll before they yank out the 60-75U trapped in bonus balances (i.e. Ghost money). By the end of it, I realize I made a foolish mistake. Most of my wins were just from bonus money and I was rewarded $0.00 on righteous wins on expired bonuses.
Therefore Bonus money only earns bonus money which put my entire bank-roll in a 80:20 ratio where the bookies control 80U in ghost money. By the end of the roll-over deadline, they get to yank out 80U of my balance at the deadline and left me with about $100 (20U) bank roll to regrind.
  1. They knew I was winning consistently making solid picks.
During my 110 hour marathon over the brutal grind of losing more than 70 hours of work, leisure and recreation; 35 hours of sleep; to a fucking impossible grind of trying to roll over some 60% of $7500 on sports I have little knowledge of capping (i.e. E-sports, Table Tennis, European football) after a few days of studying the game, I was picking up my stride to grind it to 91%. They fucking knew that if I had another day to grind, they would be coughing up +$600-800 of withdrawable balance to my account.
I am a Fucking PHD Candidate (2-6 months from graduating and not having to pay another round of BS tuition) who does a shitload of mathematics, statistics, simulations, mathematical physics, wrote scientific papers. I've won T.A. Awards, Government/Provincial/Institutional level scholarships, Conference presentations, with even Undergrad honors back in the day. DM me if you need a fucking CV to prove my fucking credentials.
Why am I able to write a lot of shit? Because my fucking brain operates on some max level Intel Xeon chip on overclock mode and I cannot do much to shut it down other than going to sleep. They only way is to write articles that I think might benefit the community.
I have a crazy interest in sports and Degen'ing. I love to fucking put action on sports games, be proud about making the correct calls on the outcome of games before it happens, and then boast to my circle of competitive friends about who's the fucking Boss. As tabboo as society think us degens are, I think this absolute BS. There is a pure enjoyment in watching sports and having action on it. It is nice to get paid beer money to cover a round for your buddies, or earn that rent money over a successful night of betting on shit you actually enjoy watching. Fuck I rather make $300 for one evening of enjoying sports rather than working a 9-5 dull job to try to afford rent/mortgage. If I can fucking pay off all my monthly expenses in 3 fucking successful nights of 3 hr sessions of sports matches, that would be ideal. I would take the lather over a 9-5 rat-race grind.
Overall I am "PRO" in the debate for local single sports betting bookies to be established in Canada. Get these fucking scamming off-shore books like bodog/Bovada who contribute only contribute "Bagel" to the Canadian Economy, but instead make it worst by scamming the masses of hard working or desperate people to leak out some sum of billions of dollars of national GDP. Probably the same applies to all American States, that people should not have to cough up their hard earned $$$$ to off-shore scamming bookies. I shall write an article about this later to justify my arguments later.
Ultimately I my goal is to obliterate or negate the influence of all the cons, scamming bookies, and false touts out there who are just interested in stealing people's $$$. To write out full studies on exposing their schemes in an objective lens.
Calling me out: (Think I cannot track these pussy downvotes? I know you cowards 😂😜😎)
If you think I'm full of BS, then send me a personal DM to have a 1v1 argument the same way that Stephen A debates sports with Max Kellerman. You can downvote me or flame me with empty hate talk all you want on public threads. But don't be a fucky pussy by avoiding a debate with me. Trust me, I'm going to win and be the last one to state a real point that you will have no comeback for [haha]. Lastly, if you are open to discuss or debate with me about some issues, do some resarch/exploration, betting strategies, etc., I would love your collaboration in some projects I got going on.
Ultimately, I should help every honest worker strive towards Degen success or if not, just to purely enjoy putting action on sports games. If you are too full of yourself, then you are on your own, I bid thee adieu, and wish you all the best. However you will be absolutely declined to all services and counsel I work to provide to friends for free.
Social Media📺🎬
Some extra Resource to how I got to this point in my mission.
Here it is for starters:
June 23, 2020: The Impossible Pursuit Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Tuesday)
June 24, 2020: Doubling Bank roll and rewarded Bagel: Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Wednesday)
June 24, 2020: How can you win 5 in a row and lose it all simultaneously? Reddit/sportsbook/What is your most impressive win?
Full Twiiter:
All my media:
Discord: ????? To be solved.
Challenges: Got a few right in progress now and a couple of drafts I am working on.
The Jinxking Crusade (In progress):
Turns out many people cannot withdraw anything out of Bovada/bodog due to some website glitches. Will try to recover a bankroll to attempt a withdrawal, however I am likely to have the same issues too. They will make some lame excuse to not give me a cheque. Definitely no point of pursuing anything in bovada/bodog if they refuse to give you withdrawables. The goal is to get their website off outta here. As well as get them out of advertisements. They definitely pulled off some "Get the fucking money and run scheme" and you will likely not see your money again. GG
The Jinxking Challenge (In progress):
Want to expose a bad tout who over prices the service and has a mediocre record? Tail and fade to call their their BS or mediocre non profiting record out. Also good for finding legitimate winners too. This will be a mission to expose shitty touts on Twitter the way Penn & Teller exposes BS in the market.
submitted by jinxking0p5 to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Bankroll Management Part II

Bankroll Management – Part II
Thanks for all the feedback yesterday on Part I. Continuing our journey through bankroll management, now is a good time to discuss the Kelly Criterion in further detail.
The Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy that will maximum median wealth expectation over the long term. Betting more than the Kelly Criterion suggests will lead you to suboptimal results. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth and was formulated by scientists John L. Kelly and Claude Shannon in 1956.
Calculating Kelly
We have a workbook to calculate the Kelly Criterion yourself. For American odds, the following formulas are used:
Kelly formula
For example, if you are getting +200 on a bet but your winning percentage is 40%, your Kelly Bet Allocation would be calculated as:
Kelly allocation example
And if you’re getting -250 on a bet that you win 75% of the time, your Kelly Bet Allocation would be calculated as:
‍Kelly allocation example 2
What Happens If We Bet More Than the Kelly Criterion?
In the example introduced in Part I (1,000 bets, -110 odds with a true 55.0% win probability), the Kelly Criterion states that a bet of 5.5% of your bankroll would maximize wealth expectation in the long run.
What happens if you want to bet more than the Kelly Criterion? Well, if you bet 1.5x Kelly Criterion (or 8.25%), 66% of the time you will wind up worse off than if you bet 1.0x Kelly (Full Kelly). Starting with a bankroll of $1,000, the distribution of potential outcomes based on bet size is displayed below.
Range of different outcomes based on Kelly multiples
After 10,000 bets, you will be worse off 90.6% of the time.

Bet Size Probability of being worse off than 1.00X Kelly
1.00x Kelly -
1.25x Kelly 74.3%
1.50x Kelly 90.6%
1.75x Kelly 97.6%
2.00x Kelly 99.6%
As the number of wagers grows, the less likely it is to have an outcome where betting more than 1.0x Kelly would yield better returns.
Phrased differently, over a 10,000-game sample size, you would only be better off betting 1.5x Kelly if you exceed your true win percentage and win at least 55.7% of your bets. The likelihood of this happening (if your true win % is 55.0%) is approximately 9% and shrinks as you increase your sample size.
In the long run, your winning percentage converges to the true win probability, which is the median of the distribution of potential outcomes. As a result, the Kelly Criterion is determined as the percent of bankroll wagered to maximize median wealth in the long run. Unless you’re not planning to bet for very long, there’s no reason to wager more than the Kelly Criterion.
Key Assumption
The Kelly Criterion relies on one very important assumption: that you know your true win probability with absolute certainty.
In a casino game like blackjack or craps, the true probability of an outcome is known (assuming fair dice/deck). We know that the probability of rolling a 12 (2 sixes) in craps is 1/36.
Dice outcome chart
The challenge when betting sports: When someone says that the Dodgers have a 67.0% probability of beating the Diamondbacks, that person is estimating this probability using historical data and mathematical models. There is no way of knowing with absolute certainty what the win probability is for the Dodgers. This presents a challenge because it leaves you vulnerable to overbetting.
Uncertainty of True Winning Percentage
Due to the uncertainty around true win probability, many people argue that a Full Kelly betting strategy is too aggressive. We tend to agree.
Let’s assume that you have an NBA model that you believe predicts every regular season game (1,230 games) against the spread at a 55.0% winning percentage (highly unlikely that you can find this much value in every game, but let’s use this as a simple example). You start with $1,000 and bet all 1,230 games at Full Kelly allocation of 5.5% of your bankroll. Let’s say, however, that you were slightly overconfident in your model, and the actual true win probability is 54.0% (still very good). Despite having a winning model, your Full Kelly bet allocation should be only 3.4%, and you have therefore been betting the equivalent of 1.62x Kelly.
How does overbetting affect your expected results? We’ve summarized the results below.
Strategy Comparison
You have a situation here where, despite having a winning model, you have a higher chance of losing money because of an imprecise estimate of your winning percentage. Therefore, we generally suggest that you either 1) estimate your winning percentage more conservatively, or 2) practice using a “Fractional Kelly” approach towards bankroll management.
Fractional Kelly Betting
Fractional Kelly betting is just as it sounds – betting a fraction of what the Kelly Criterion suggests as optimal. Below we’ve plotted various bet allocations for your NBA model with a 54% true win percentage.
Risk Return Profile of Kelly Multiples
Yes, there is always a chance of losing money. However, we want to only accept that risk if we are being fairly compensated with the expectation of making money. If you’re not receiving incremental returns, you should not take on more risk.
For instance, let’s compare the bankroll management strategies of 0.5x Kelly betting vs 1.5x Kelly betting. Both strategies have a median expected final bankroll of ~$1,600. By betting 0.5x Kelly, however your chances of losing 20% or more of your bankroll are only 10%, while betting 1.5x Kelly would result in you losing 20% or more of your bankroll around 33% of the time. Therefore, the 1.5x Kelly betting strategy is dominated and is never recommended.
Let’s borrow a term from modern portfolio theory and say only bet allocations between zero and Full Kelly are on the efficient frontier. Therefore, these are the only bankroll management strategies that should be considered. We’ve plotted the efficient frontier of bet allocations below.
Efficient Frontier of Betting Allocations
Personal Risk Appetite
It’s worth noting that even with a precise estimate of true winning percentage, using a Full Kelly bankroll management system might be too aggressive for your personal preferences. That’s fine – your bankroll management system should be tailored to your desired to risk-return profile, and everything at or below a Full Kelly strategy is a valid bankroll management strategy.
Let’s say that you’re risk averse, and your objective is to minimize the chances of losing 20% of your bankroll. You decide that you don’t want greater than a 5% chance of losing 20%, so you can choose a 0.25x Kelly Fraction as your desired bankroll management strategy.
Simultaneous Wagers
The above calculations assume that all bets are independent of one another and that no bets are occurring simultaneously. If you have simultaneously occurring wagers, such as betting on the Lakers and the Patriots at the same time, you should consider betting a little less than the Kelly Criterion suggests.
Example: Consider a situation in which you have 20 bets that you want to bet 5% of your bankroll on. If you bet them all simultaneously and lose all 20 bets (hey, it can happen!), you’ve lost your entire bankroll. If those wagers had happened sequentially, the Kelly Criterion would have told you to bet less money after each loss and you still would have 36% of your bankroll remaining.
The calculations are little trickier and beyond the scope of this article. For further reading, you can check out “Algorithms for optimal allocation of bets on many simultaneous events” by Chris Whitrow. (Reader beware, unless you have a good handle on multivariable calculus, the paper may seem like a foreign language.)
What If I Don’t Know My Winning Percentage?
This Kelly Criterion discussion builds the framework around the upper bound of your bet sizing with a known winning percentage. If you don’t have a reasonable estimate of your winning percentage on a particular bet, I urge you to be very conservative with your bet size. Until you are confident in your estimated win percentage of a bet, I would suggest limiting your bet size to 0.5% to 1.0% of your bankroll.

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Basic foundational metrics for measuring your relative sports betting performance

Measuring Returns
Understanding how to measure your performance is a crucial element of being a successful sports bettor. With varying odds and bet allocations, it’s not as simple as just counting your wins and losses. You can win 80% of your wagers, but if those bets were made at poor odds or you had poor bankroll management, you could still have disastrous results.
What you need to measure is your return on investment (“ROI”). In the finance world, ROI is defined as a measurement of the gain or loss generated on investment, relative to the amount of money invested. For example, if you bought Amazon stock at $1,000 per share and it’s currently trading at $1,900 per share, you would say that investment has an ROI of 90% (($1900 - $1,000) / $1,000). Pretty straightforward calculation.
In sports betting, however, there is often confusion regarding how to measure ROI.
Wager ROI
In the 2019 MLB season, Aaron and I wagered around $1.39 million across approximately 800 games. When it was all said and done, we had made approximately $113 thousand. If you divide $113 thousand by $1.39 million, you get 8.1%. Is this our ROI?
If you ask the average sports bettor, they would say yes. If you ask the average finance professional, they would probably ask you “well, how much money did you start with?”
We’re going to define that 8.1% (Net Win / Wagered Amount) as our Wager ROI. For every dollar that we wagered, we made around 8.1 cents.
Wager ROI = [Net Win / Wagered Amount]
Portfolio ROI
We didn't start the 2019 season with a bankroll of $1.39 million, however.
We started with $130 thousand. And we ended with $243 thousand.
Yes, we wagered significantly more than our bankroll. But we started this endeavor with an investment of $130,000. Thus, by the financial definition of ROI, we had an ROI of approximately 87%. To avoid confusion with Wager ROI (and an unnecessary argument from sports bettors), we will define this as our Portfolio ROI. Calculations as follows:
Portfolio ROI = [Ending Investment / Starting Investment – 1]
Cash Turnover Ratio
So how did we wager $1.39 million when we only started with $130,000? Well one of the beauties of sports betting (besides futures) is that the outcome of a wager is determined quickly (~24hrs for MLB, a week for NFL). When you win a game, your sports betting account is credited, and you can then use those proceeds to bet on something else.
How efficiently we use our bankroll is something we’re going to call Cash Turnover Ratio. The Cash Turnover Ratio is the amount of wagers placed, divided by the average portfolio balance over the measurement period. For simplicity, it’s best to calculate your average portfolio balance as the average between your starting and ending bankroll.
Cash Turnover Ratio = [Wagered Amount / ((Starting Portfolio + Ending Portfolio) / 2)]
Our Cash Turnover Ratio for the 2019 baseball season was 7.4x as calculated below:
7.4x = $1.39 million / [($130k + $243k) / 2]
The Cash Turnover Ratio is a measurement of how efficiently we are using our capital. If we had an average portfolio balance of $10 million and only wagered $1.39 million, that would be a very inefficient use of our capital. The only way to increase our Cash Turnover Ratio is to 1) increase our wager size or 2) place more wagers. Of course, increasing our wager size increases our risk and methods such as at Kelly Criterion give us the framework to optimize our bet allocation.
Performance Objective
So what should be our objective? To maximize our Wager ROI? To maximize our Portfolio ROI? Each person is different, but we prioritize Portfolio ROI over Wager ROI.
There’s always going to be a tradeoff between Wager ROI and the number of wagers you play (and therefore your Cash Turnover Ratio). Let’s say you only bet the most select wagers and are able to hit 60% against -110 lines. You would be sporting a very impressive 14.5% Wager ROI, but you could likely improve your Portfolio ROI by being less selective and betting the games that you may only win at a 55% clip. Your Wager ROI would decrease, but the increased volume would increase your Portfolio ROI.
So maximizing Portfolio ROI is a better strategy than maximizing Wager ROI, but is it our performance objective?
Risk Adjusted Returns
Simply, no. What we haven’t addressed yet is the riskiness of a betting strategy.
For example – Bettor 1 has $10,000 and decides to make five $2,000 wagers at -110 over the course of a week. Bettor 1 wins three and lose two, winning a net $1,455, which is good for a Wager ROI of 14.5% and a Portfolio ROI of 14.5%.
Alternatively – Bettor 2 also has $10,000 and makes 50 wagers of $200 instead, winning 30 and losing 20 over the same one-week period. Bettor 2 also has a Wager ROI of 14.5% and a Portfolio ROI of 14.5%.
Do Bettor 1 and Bettor 2 do have equally strong betting strategies? Absolutely not. Bettor 2 was able to achieve the same returns as Bettor 1 but assumed a lot less risk in the process. We can borrow another concept from the financial realm to assess risk-adjusted performance.
The Sharpe Ratio
I’ll save you the boring history and definition of the Sharpe Ratio, but it is essentially a measurement of investment performance compared to a risk-free asset, after adjusting for risk. The Sharpe Ratio represents the additional return generated for an incremental unit of risk. Risk is generally measured as the standard deviation of returns.
For our purposes, we will assume the risk-free asset to have a return of 0.0% given that these bets are short-term securities (and Treasuries are yielding next to nothing).
We can use the Sharpe Ratio to assess the performance of each Bettor. In the table below, we’ve compared Bettor 1 with Bettor 2.
Comparison of Strategies
The big difference between the two bettors is that Bettor 1 assumed a lot more risk with 1) larger bets and therefore a higher standard deviation. As a result, Bettor 2 has a much higher Sharpe ratio than Bettor 1.
You can download a workbook with the above calculations along with a more realistic example of differing betting strategies. Simply replace the shaded cells with your own data to calculate your own Sharpe Ratio. PM me if you want the workbook, or we can migrate it to a google sheet if enough people are interested.
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Sports Betting 101: Do’s and Don’ts of Sports Betting

Do Go Line Shopping

When you buy food, clothes, or any other item, it makes sense to look for the best price. All else being equal, it’s efficient to want the best possible good for the lowest possible cost. This concept maps perfectly onto sports betting, where all else is always equal. A bet on the New York Yankees is a bet on the Yankees regardless of what sportsbook you place it at, so finding the best price is a singular variable that should be weighed on its own.
Ideally you’d have access to multiple betting outlets and simply bet your game wherever you could find the best price, but at the very least this concept of “line shopping” is a good way to get an indication of value. The convenience of having multiple options for where to place a wager is one reason why Las Vegas is considered by many to be a sports bettor’s paradise. As more and more states and regions come onboard with legalized sports betting, that landscape is set to change, though. Just look at places like New Jersey that now offer multiple outlets for bettors to place wagers at.
If you can bet the Yankees at -150, but at other sportsbooks you’d have to lay -175 or -200, then generally speaking, you’ve stumbled upon a bargain. It can be annoying and time consuming to cross-reference every one of your bets, but fortunately the resources become more and more available as sports betting grows.

Don’t Bet Large Moneyline Favorites

The further away you get from a 50/50 bet, the harder it is to get a fair price. Most sportsbooks price 50/50 propositions at -110 on both sides, but when you’re dealing with lopsided odds, the house cut widens.
If a huge favorite is -3000 to win, you won’t see the underdog remotely close to that number. So if the favorite is -3000 and the underdog is +1500, which is fairly typical or thereabouts, then there’s a good chance the fair number is somewhere in the 2000s, This means that neither side is likely to be worth betting on. Many bettors will mask this problem by parlaying large favorites together so that they can stomach a more manageable payout, but it doesn’t change the fact that the component parts of the bet are inherently bad values.
Making a bet just because you feel like it “can’t lose” is the wrong philosophy, and it’s exacerbated when you delude yourself by combining multiple bets of this nature into one wager. This can become even more problematic when you’re not being offered fair parlay odds. Some sportsbooks do offer fair parlay calculations, but betting on a lot of large money line favorites is still virtually certain to lose you money in the long run.

Do Target Correlated Parlays

Long explanation incoming…
Most people familiar with sports betting will tell you that a parlay is always a bad idea, but it’s not even remotely that simple.
A parlay is essentially a neutral proposition in general, where you are making one bet, and then automatically betting all of the possible winnings on a second, or more bets. There’s nothing particularly useful about doing this, but there’s nothing particularly problematic about doing it either. Having said that, there are some parlays that are absolutely worth considering. Some sportsbooks will let you bet parlays when the bets are actually correlated.
The idea behind a correlated parlay is that the outcome of one bet can influence the result of a second bet, so the combination of two bets can give you a different likelihood of winning than two unrelated bets. For instance, if you bet a parlay on two coin flips, you have a 25% chance to win (.5 x .5 = .25) because those two 50/50 flips are totally independent. But if you bet a parlay on, let’s say, the under and the home team in a baseball game, you actually have more than a 25% chance to win because home wins lead to less runs on average, primarily because the home team doesn’t bat in the bottom of the 9th if they are winning.
Diving deeper into baseball parlays, there are a few things to keep in mind that can give you an advantage. As mentioned above, the existence of an 18th frame (bottom of the 9th) is a chance for more runs to be scored. That alone creates an interrelationship between home victories and reduced run scoring, as well as away victories and increased run scoring, but there’s more to it as well. The rules of baseball also dictate that the game is over once the home team takes the lead in the 9th inning or later, so it’s more difficult for a home team to win by multiple runs than it is for an away team. Yes, multi-run home runs can happen in the 9th inning or later, but this is the only way a home team can win by more than one beyond the 9th. On the other hand, the away team has unlimited run potential in the 9th and extra innings, so there’s increased chance for a total bet to hit the over if the away team does the scoring.

Don’t Chase with Live Bets

Live betting odds are computed with pretty complex algorithms, and just like with large money line betting options, the fair bet is generally somewhere close to the middle.
The bottom line is that both sides of a live bet, in most cases, present less-than-ideal value, due to the increased juice, or higher house cut. Chasing your losses or chasing a pregame wager through live betting can be viewed as a way to get of what you think is a lost cause, but in the long run it’s going to hurt you.
Although, like betting on game props discussed below, it is possible to find some gems when scrolling through live betting odds. For the most part, it’s important to exercise restraint and look elsewhere for better value.

Do Bet Player Props

Player props generally come with increased vigs (-115 or -120 compared to the standard -110), but there is still plenty of opportunity to cash in on them. The most effective way to bet a player prop is simply to rely on a trusted projection system that can spot differences in the betting line and the expected result for a player’s statistics, but the best player prop values usually occur due to injuries.
Wagers are voided if the player of record is scratched from a game, but injuries to surrounding players, usually teammates, can open up some substantial advantages. In basketball, for instance, it’s generally a good idea to bet the over on props for James Harden and Chris Paul when one of the two is ruled out of a game, and same goes for Steph Curry and Kevin Durant, or other combinations of this nature.
You can also bet under props when news breaks about a minutes restriction in basketball, a snap count in football, a pitch limit in baseball, and so on. The main idea is to use your ability to quickly react to news, as player prop lines tend to respond to news more slowly than standard game betting lines.

Don’t Bet Game Props (Usually)

Game props can be viable, but there’s a slew of game props that people bet mostly for fun without realizing how negative the value is that they’re getting. Bets like “team to win first half and full game” or “player to score first basket” or “yes/no game goes to extra innings” just about never come with a fair payout and could ultimately be a disaster for your bankroll.
Sportsbooks know that people usually make these types of bets on a whim. These bets are more for casual bettors who want a more exotic taste of action, but if it’s a bet that a sharp player likes, he or she has likely already gotten in when the price was good. While it’s not absolutely impossible to find a diamond in the rough with these bets, you’re almost certainly better off looking elsewhere.
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How to Win at Sports Betting

Want to understand the best information on how to win at sports betting? Just a single amount of time in the US leading professional sports history features a team had an excellent year old. Nobody is really flawless. The purpose is that losses will happen in sports betting. The most useful sports bettors on earth infrequently acquire more than 55 percent of their full time. Winning in sports gambling is not hard. Period. There’s a reason sports betting is this a profitable company that’s currently becoming popular in most locations. With that said, a few sports bettors do triumph and acquire plenty of dollars! It is from hopeless for a successful sports bettor. However, as clear, with no correct knowledge and techniques, it won’t happen. These fundamentals, in sequence, if grant the novice sports bettor an opportunity to develop into successful.
Keeping up a solid grasp on bankroll direction is readily in comparison to the real-life experience of purchasing a brand-new vehicle. When an individual would like to get a brand-new car, he needs to get in the dealership using a notion of just how far he wants to pay and how far he could pay off. On average, both of these are different amounts. However, the purpose is he wants to get into the dealership using a budget. Do you know what happens when he does not? Inevitably, he will go from this automobile having a half-smile on his head, because he’ll have a new vehicle for nearly double as far as he wanted to invest. It pays to have a budget in place.
The specific same is said for sports betting; bankroll direction is vital. To begin with, specify a spending budget. When a business budget is not put, it could on occasion be almost inevitable to pay more cash than could be afforded. Self-control is almost always a significant secret of sports betting, and establishing funding may be a lifesaver.
Together with establishing funding, actually managing that funding is essential. Evidently, falling half of their cover an elongated time period using a single underdog to mad a popular probably isn’t the smartest option. Can it cover off? Sure. But more times than not, this underdog will definitely lose, and also all of the amount of money budgeted to make use of will probably undoubtedly be lost with that. It’s a recognized belief with each bet, merely a small number of their allocated budget needs to really be wagered. Such a thing in 1 to 5% of their funding each bet is okay.
Placing an Excellent Betting Portfolio
Placing a good Sports Betting portfolio could be trying for players that are new. Quite often, inexperienced bettors find one particular match that they enjoy and also put much of this budgeted money about it. When just a single bet is in drama, fortune and other things can play a massive roll in the end result. But if five or even five distinct kinds of wagers come in drama (notably with various matches), the bettor is quite a bit more inclined to acquire true outcomes while in the long run.
Some reason new bettors may fight to set a diverse gaming portfolio is that it is not simple to achieve that. That isn’t always the situation. It all will take is dispersing the budgeted money from unique bets in distinct locations.
Some experts may provide certain proportions of funding which ought to really be wagered on different bet types. Every bet is only a bit different. Having said this, every bet involves something besides the bettor. Obviously, it could be smart to bet that a greater proportion of funding onto a superior profit/low hazard prospect. Obviously, it could be unwise to even bet that a sizable proportion of funding at a really low profit/high hazard prospect. Thus, some times more of a bettor’s funding is going to be spent on one area instead of a second. A second week, it may be reverse osmosis the alternative way.
No matter a bettor’s profile needs to contain a wholesome mixture of these stakes: contrary to the spread, money line, oveunder, futures, props, and also certainly will comprise parlays and teasers. Using a diverse portfolio of stakes, the bettor is a great deal more inclined for authentic, quality outcomes as opposed to changing everything to a bet.
Finding stakes with a fantastic possibility to acquire money is something different which can be rough for players. There really are a number of things to remember while trying to find and considering a bet.
Understand the value and return on investment
Have a look at additional articles on Betting Pros regarding the potential value and return on investment to get the complete comprehension of exactly what those 2 things are. On the web calculators and tools provide bettors using easy tools to make use of to provide help. A fast-online search, together with the input of a couple of amounts, is it requires. Evidently, a bettor wishes to own high numbers as you possibly can for the two of these amounts. Ranked EV and ROI on possible stakes might help new betters find potentially excellent investments.
Search for value selections, maybe not winners
That one could seem just a bit funny. But, consider this way. 1 bettor could acquire nine out often stakes, with precisely the exact same quantity of money added to each individual bet, and lose money. Still, another better could acquire one out often stakes, with precisely the exact same sum of money added to each individual bet again, and also win funds. Sports gambling is an all-around value. Though the very first bettor comes with a 90% success rate, everybody else would preferably be the 2nd bettor and acquire money. When a bettor knows EV and ROI, appreciate selections can more readily be seen.
Possess a Very Long memory
Possessing a brief memory is just one of those utter worst qualities a sports bettor could possess. The NFL always provides flawless examples; teams may smash it 1 week, simply to get defeated the following week. A very long memory helps players to see potential wagers at which odds-makers might have been only a touch too short while.
Bet at the Right time
In the early stages, chances are unchanged and fresh by any people's trends. Sports-books have a tendency to wish to maintain things as much as you can for themselves, even though, and significant money towards one side or the other may induce odds-makers to make alterations. Clearly this is sometimes grounds to bet early until the likelihood vary, however it may be rationale to bet overdue, too. When a bettor finds odds apparently skewing too much in 1 direction through the entire time in front of a match, this also can be considered a perfect chance to battle upon. Betting premature or catching opportunities are just two of those better days to bet.
Research Recommendations
Research is essential in sports gambling. That might seem obvious, in the current modern world, people desire results using as little effort as you possibly can. Sports gambling is simply like everything else on the planet. When your bettor works hard, he or she’s got a higher likelihood of succeeding. Sports gambling research may incorporate anything from looking into stats and watching matches, to calculating return on investment. To simplify all of it, break down the research into two distinct types: sports comprehension and amounts comprehension.
The particular “sport” side of playing sports gambling is most likely what many casual fans like. This may include things like watching games, researching numbers, observation player and team trends, etc. For sports bettors, this can be valuable to concentrate on a single game, since the time that it requires to achieve so research for numerous sports might be overwhelming. For an effective sports bettor, have a fantastic knowledge base of this game. Put at the time that it will take to think about yourself as an “expert” at this match. It’s going to probably pay off.
The amounts side of this search for sports gambling may be more stressful. Assessing different game outlines, calculating EV and ROI, and finding amazing values might be much more important compared to sports knowledge, yet. Actually, locating the most effective odds from various sportsbooks are also the difference between losing and winning a bet. Find an Excellent value, locate the best chances for this bet, and wager off.
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How to Become a Better Gambler Today

1 – Play the Right Games

If you don’t know what the house edge is, then you need to learn about it quickly. I’ll cover some of the basics for you, but a lot more study is required on your part if you’re going to choose the right games to play. The house edge is the percentage advantage that the casino has over you in respect to the games they offer.
Every game has a generalized house edge that you can find online. If you’re looking for the specific house edge of a game at a casino then you’ll need to do the calculations yourself as subtle rule differences impact the edge profoundly.
With all of this being said about the house edge, you’ll only find one game in the casino that is positive expectation. That is, if you play perfect strategy you can make money in the long run. That game is Deuces Wild video poker. And this is only true if you’re lucky enough to find the best pay table.
The reason casinos offer it is because it’s very difficult to implement perfect strategy and most players make mistakes that bring the edge back into the house’s favour.
After this video poker variant, you can play poker and bet on sports and horse racing if you hope to gamble with an edge. These are really the only other ways to make money in the long term.
Blackjack is also positive expectation if you use perfect basic strategy and count cards. But this is quite difficult to do these days and you’ll be evicted from most casinos for doing so. And in some cases you’ll be black listed for life.
If you must play casino table games, then stick to baccarat, craps, and blackjack. These offer the smallest possible house edge which means you’ll be able to push your dollars as far as possible. Remember to keep in mind that it’s impossible to win in the long term though.
By far the best game to play in the casino is poker. You can win in the long term in poker as the game is partially skill based and you face off against other players instead of the casino. The casino will make money from the games by charging a rake, both in tournaments and cash games. This is a small and insignificant amount though if you’re playing at even the lowest possible stakes.
After poker, stick with horse racing and sports betting. If you use the right strategies and methods you can win money in the long run betting on these.
It’s very difficult though, and even the professionals don’t make a lot of money. In recent times, daily fantasy sports have also risen to prominence and quite a few people have made decent money. It’s very difficult to do these days though so unless you’re going to put in a lot of hours you probably won’t do too well.

2- Don’t Play the Wrong Games

Knowing which games to play is just as important as knowing which games to avoid. In most casinos, you’ll come across a lot of these.
It goes without saying that lottery style games are the absolute worst for the player. This includes Keno, so if you regularly play this at the casino then consider switching to bingo instead.
It’s a similar game with slightly better odds and is a lot more socially engaging which makes up for the poor house edge. Now that you’re going to avoid lottery games, I’ll go into some more detail about other carnival games that you should skip.
First off, I call them carnival games because the odds are so massively stacked against you that you need to get very lucky to win. Much like the games you find at a carnival.
Casinos love these types of games because they’re quite often played very quickly, and have a huge house edge. Most important for them though is the fact they’re usually highly entertaining and thus, attract a lot of players.
Examples of some popular carnival games include Caribbean Stud, Mississippi Stud, Three Card Poker, Four Card Poker, Texas Shootout, Ultimate Texas Holdem and Texas Holdem Bonus. These games all have a house edge above 2%, with Caribbean Stud hitting 5%. This just isn’t good for the player, so try to avoid these games.
Slots are a tricky one. While they’re technically a poor game choice, many people have a lot of fun playing them. If your main aim is to make money you should never play slots. They’re programmed to take a fixed percentage off players over a prolonged period. This coupled with the fact there’s no decision making makes them one to avoid.
However, if you love playing slots and have a lot of fun then consider moving across to video poker. Video poker offers solo play on a machine in much the same way slots do.
The main difference is that video poker is going to soften the blow in relation to how much you lose. The game is a lot slower than most slots and the house edge is drastically smaller. On top of this you have decisions to make in video poker so you can use strategy to improve your chances.
Another game that’s the wrong game, is any one that you don’t know how to play and implement perfect strategy. I’ll cover more on this below, but a general rule to follow is never to play a game for real money that you aren’t familiar with.

3 – Manage Your Bankroll

If you’re going to take your gambling seriously and would like to do as well as possible, then you need to manage your bankroll. All too often you’ll hear stories of people losing everything at the casino or track. While this is tragic it can be easily avoided with some discipline and a sound bankroll management strategy.
To start with, you should set aside a fixed amount of money you’re going to use for gambling purposes. This should be separate from money you use in everyday life. If you wish to add or subtract from this you can do so, but it should be only in certain situations and based on time, not on the amount of money you have in your bankroll.
Once you’ve done this, you can then start to think about how much of your bankroll you’re willing to risk each session or game. For those who are keen poker players, you may have heard that 5% is the key percentage when it comes to game cost to bankroll ratio.
That is, you should never risk more than 5% of your bankroll in a single game. This is a good rule to live by and should ensure that you never go truly broke. This is if you’re playing poker, betting on horses or sports, or playing daily fantasy sports, and that you’re implementing solid and successful strategies in doing so. This is the key.
If you play a negative expectation game your bankroll will slowly diminish over time, and eventually you’ll have to re-fill it from other areas of income. This is fine, provided you’re playing for entertainments sake and understand that you’ll lose in the long run.
One more key thing you’ll need to do when managing your bankroll is keeping track of everything. You can do this through a spreadsheet on your computer, or even a diary. It’s basically like keeping a budget on what you’ve spent money on, where you’ve made money, and where you’ve lost it.
This way you’ll be able to better track your spending patterns and manage your bankroll more effectively.
Finally, if you’re a recreational gambler and head to Las Vegas or Atlantic City once a year, then you can also implement some bankroll management tactics. The best one to use on short trips is to identify in advance how much money you’re going to gamble.
Then you can divide this up by the number of days you’re in town to work out your daily allowance. Once you’ve done this place each day’s amount in its own envelope. When you arrive in Las Vegas or wherever you may be, place the envelopes in the safe and then use each one on the relevant day.
Once you’ve spent all of the day’s money then that’s it; no more gambling. If you stick to this method you’ll never spend more than you’re meant to and quite often you’ll end up winning each day, which makes things even nicer.
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Sports Betting Online - The Things You Must Keep In Mind When Playing

If you're just How to calculate a parlay?, there are several things that you simply must essentially confine mind. Your knowledge will function your tool in ensuring that some time , effort and money spent thereon are going to be productive.
Implement Good Money Management
It applies not just in sports betting, but in all pastimes you perform that involves wagering money. Money management will help in guarding your bankroll and in keeping you away from bankruptcy. Betting all your money is never a smart decision and it will also not help you in being a successful long term player. Spend only what is okay for you to lose in case it is not your lucky day to play.
Look And Shop Around
Odds offered in online sports betting differ from one sports book to another. Therefore, shopping around will be very helpful in finding which one offers the best odds and the best deals.
Pay Attention To Underdogs
Not because a player or a team is the crowd's favorite, it already means that it will always win the game. Underdogs, too, can have the edge over the favorites depending on how the game is played. Do not underestimate the capability of underdogs.
Know The Bets You Can Make
There are many sorts of bets which will be made when wagering money in online sports betting. Knowing what bets you'll make is additionally another important knowledge that you simply got to obtain. Below are a number of the bets utilized in sports betting.
Single or Straight Bet is the most common and the simplest bet that you can make. This means that you will bet on who will win at a particular game.
Point Spread allows betting on the winner from selections made equal through appropriate allocations to the losing team. Essentially, you will wager on certain points by which the winning team will defeat the underdog.
The Moneyline sets up the probabilities for every team; yet is inversely related to what could have been the point spread.
Total Bet refers to the sum of the points earned by the two teams, inclusive of the scores they earned during overtimes.
Over or Under bet also involves the sum of the scores made by the two teams. However, in wagering, you'll back whether the sum is over or under the entire amount indicated by the chances maker.
Accumulator Or Parlay is a multiple bet. You can make numerous selections at a time on quite two games with the intention of pressing the winnings of the primary to the succeeding wins. To win the parlay, you need to win each selection. For tie, cancelled or postponed games, the parlay will be automatically lowered by just one selection. The double parlay can turn into a straight kind of bet; the triple parlay can become a double. If you win a parlay; it can definitely yield enormous money.
The teaser bet is similar to a parlay; except that you have an alternative to add/subtract points from one or several spread bets.
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Predicting MLB First Five Inning Outcomes by Individual Pitcher/Hitter Matchups: UPDATED

Original post here.
Took a little longer than I anticipated (mostly due to my ADD causing me to also start working on a separate Jeopardy project), but I finally got a fully functional script to back-test the model against previous seasons. It basically works the same as in the original post, but slugging percentage seemed to have the most predictive value so that's what I used in the model. However, I did add something like a confidence value. The winner is predicted by comparing the two teams' predicted SLG, but I added a line where it only bets on a game if the differential between the two is above some value. I picked 0.22 to test, based on the chart below:
I scraped some betting odds from, and after reading up a little bit on bankroll management, most people suggest something like betting 3% of your bankroll per game, so that's what I've done to start. I started with $100 and tested it against all of the books that were on the first table of that SBR page for the particular day (BeautifulSoup wasn't cooperating when trying to scroll to other books, but I figured 8 was representative enough, most books have about the same odds anyway).
So far it looks like it's doing pretty well. Apparently Pinnacle stopped putting out F5 odds halfway through the year, which is unfortunate because that was my best one by far up to that point. Maybe that's why they stopped, or maybe SBR just didn't have them archived. Still a lot of things I want to play around with, but this was enough progress to make another post on the topic. Unfortunately I live in a state where betting on sports is illegal so I don't know that I'll ever get to use it
submitted by jbeff to Sabermetrics [link] [comments]

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submitted by OpenVisionZ to SportsReport [link] [comments]

Betting Strategy

The way to make a profit on sports betting is clearly laid out by;
Determine a probability of an event occuring;
Team A will win 70% of the time The game will be drawn 20% of the time Team B will win 10% of the time
This is 'pricing up a game' and is the aim of all successful bettors to develop a strategy/model to achieve this.
We then multiply these percentages by the bookmaker odds to see if there is value (if we expect to make a profit)
Team A is expected to win 70% of the time and out bookmaker is giving odds on them to win of 1.57 so we multiply one by the other;
Anything over 1.0 indicates a good bet.
Therefore both work together so we need to have an opinion on the percentage of the time a bet will win before deciding if it's a good bet.
We then need to decide how much of our betting bankroll to bet and this is equally as important.
Using a Kelly Criterion calculator we can see that the optimal percentage of our bankroll to bet on Team A to win in our example is 17.5% of our bankroll.
If we bet less than this we won't make as much profit but if we bet more than this we will make a loss.
Assume that the value on Team B to win is the same (1.1) - expected winning percentage of 10% and odds of 11.0.
Our optimal bet is 1% of our bankroll. If we bet more than 1% we will lose!
Very few 'average bettors' have the discipline to bet 1% of a small bankroll so they are betting too much on a good bet so will lose as they hope to win as much as possible as quickly as possible but it rarely works out. This is a major downside of accumulators and one reason bookmakers encourage accumulators with money back offers and enhanced odds.
So in theory they are similar value bets but in practice it would seem that;
For the average bettor, the bigger the odds (and the lower the winning percentage) the less the probability of making a profit...
  1. The average bettor will not place enough bets to overcome variance and achieve their true winrate so luck plays a big part.
  2. The average bettor has poor bankroll management and the bigger the odds the greater the probability is that they are betting more than a full Kelly stake which will have a major negative effect on their bankroll and might overcome any good luck/winning streaks above their expected winning probabilities they experience.
  3. Small changes in winning probabilities have huge differences in EV rate. For example when betting at odds of 5/1 with an estimated win rate of 18% this represents a good bet but if you are off by 2% it's actually a bad bet. At odds of 4/7 and an estimated strike rate of 70% you can be off by 6% and still make a profit!
  4. Average bettors bet accumulators instead of singles with the number of individual bets between 4-8 legs. It's unlikely they have identified this many good bets so even if they have found 1 or 2 good bets they take away from the value of these bets by adding a couple of 'sure bets' to boost the odds but as we all know there is no sure bet and teams like Real Madrid and Bayern Munich can fail to win against any team in their domestic leagues. These are also the teams many people throw into accumulators each week regardless of the odds so the bookmakers, knowing this, will offer lower odds.
Effectively (in practice), for the average bettor, the bigger the odds (lower winning probability but still +EV) the more likely it is they will lose overall.
submitted by ReturnOnBet to SoccerBetting [link] [comments]

Some Questions and Answers about Funds

This is a first second draft that needs editing.
Suggestions, clarifications and more questions welcome. Too technical? Not technical enough? Can't follow? Please feel free to comment!
What is a fund?
A fund is a way for a group of investors to pool their money to invest in things, benefitting from economies of scale, more flexibility (such as having some liquidity when investing in things that aren’t very liquid, like real property) and the opportunity for smaller investors to diversify with minimal capital.
What kind of things can a fund invest in?
Literally just about anything - if you can dream it, you can probably invest in it.
Most funds are quite traditional and more what you would think as of “investing” - they pool together investor money to buy things like:
Others invest in more specialised or exotic ways, such as:
Other funds can be more speculative in nature, where what the investors buy tend to be bets - they are putting up money to make the bet, e.g.:
Whole departments of major investment banks are devoted to coming up with a way of letting their clients (or them!) make the bets they want, and, finding someone (usually their other clients) to take the other side of the bet.
Those are probably not the kind of things that the average retail investor reading this FAQ wants to invest in though!
How are funds in the UK set up?
Funds can be divided into two types: open-ended and closed-ended.
An open-ended fund is one where the number of shares or units in it isn’t fixed.
As investors give the fund more money, new shares are created. As investors redeem, shares are cancelled.
A closed-ended fund is one where the number of shares or units is fixed. This is usually at the point the fund is established, where everyone pools their money and gets shares in return.
The only time new money goes into a closed-ended fund is if it borrows or issues more shares - when you buy shares normally, you usually buy them from someone else who wants to sell them, rather than giving money to the fund itself.
How exactly are closed-ended funds set up?
You may have heard about investment trusts - either the normal variety big name ones, or more specialised trusts like venture capital trusts.
They are though, not actually trusts in the strict sense - they are, these days, invariably, limited liability companies.
When the fund is set up, they issue shares. Sometimes you can sell those shares on, sometimes you can’t - some of those companies are exchange traded: so you can buy and sell those shares amongst other investors, but you don’t generally buy or sell them from/to the fund itself.
How exactly are open-ended funds set up?
There are three types of open-ended fund in the UK, but you’ll only mostly deal with one type: the “Open Ended Investment Company” (OEIC) or “Investment Company with Variable Capital” (ICVC).
OEIC and ICVC are interchangeable terms - they are the same thing, legally.
The other two types are:
You probably won't ever buy into an authorised unit trust (a lot of funds converted to ICVCs) or authorised contractual schemes (mainly used by big institutional funds to manage their portfolios in a legal sense).
How is an ICVC set up?
An ICVC is an actual company - it has a board of directors and shareholders (that’s you!), it has to publish annual accounts and get audited, but there are special rules such as:
Most of the big name funds will appoint their operating company as the director and their asset management company as the manager: the sub-fund assets are all separate.
For instance, all of sub-favourite Vanguard’s UK funds - that is, funds that are legally set up in the UK - are one company: Vanguard Investments Funds ICVC (note, limited is not in the name!), but that company’s director is Vanguard Investments UK Limited, the investment manager is The Vanguard Group, Inc (the US parent), but delegates management of all the sub-funds to Vanguard Asset Management Limited.
This is all quite normal.
So, what exactly am I buying when I buy into a fund?
You are buying a share in that fund. You own a bit of a company that owns a lot of other things - those other things depending on what the objective of the fund is, whether that’s shares, bonds or bets on the weather.
You need to be clear that you don’t actually own a small proportion of the underlying things the fund owns - all you own is a share of the company.
That’s not the same for authorised unit trusts or authorised contractual schemes but you probably won’t be buying them.
How is the price set?
That depends on what you mean by “price!”
Every fund has to calculate something called a Net Asset Value (NAV) - that is a valuation of all the assets of the fund minus its liabilities (for instance, if it’s borrowed money).
By law, it has to be done a at least once a year, and must be done as frequently as appropriate for how often people can buy in or sell up.
That means if people can buy/sell every day, it should be valued every day at least. If you can only buy/sell twice a year, twice a year valuations are allowed.
The valuation needs to be conducted by someone independent - either of the fund itself, or if done internally, by teams functionally separate with remuneration policies that prevent conflict of interest.
The NAV though, isn’t always the price that you can buy or sell shares in the fund for though!
I actually meant, the price I buy or sell for...
If by price, you mean “what I buy and sell for” then it depends on who you are buying and selling from/to!
If you are buying into an ICVC’s fund, then you buy and sell directly from the company itself.
The fund will either be single or dual priced - if it’s single priced, then you have the same price for buying and selling. If it’s dual priced, there is a difference between the price to buy from them and the price you get when selling: the difference between those prices is called the spread.
If there is a single price, then it usually means that the fund is going to absorb all the costs of taking your money and investing it - the other shareholders’ returns will be affected.
If it’s dual priced, then the “profit” the fund is making between the two prices generally reflects those costs. That difference is called the "spread" - the funds use the extra money to try and cover costs of dealing with your buy-in or cashing-out, without penalising the other investors in the fund.
However, if you are buying an exchange traded ICVC, then you aren’t buying from the fund at all - you’re buying from other people, like a closed-ended fund.
Wait, what’s an exchange traded fund/ICVC?
What is usually called an exchange traded fund (ETF) is actually an exchange traded ICVC fund: underneath it all is a normal ICVC fund with one main difference - instead of buying and selling shares from the fund itself, you are buying and selling those shares on an exchange: from/to other owners of the fund.
Technically you could say investment trusts on stock exchanges are exchange traded funds but people would just look at you funny.
Isn’t that the same as a closed-ended fund?
It's only the same in that you buy usually buy shares in a closed-ended fund and an exchange traded ICVC in the same way: on an exchange from other people.
Sometimes a closed-ended fund wants to raise more money: when they do that they sell shares to investors directly - that's called an offering. You sign up to invest and the fund decides whether sell you any shares or not.
You would buy that in a different way to normal fund investing.
So they are the same thing?
No - exchange traded funds, (ETFs) are not closed-ended.
In the event there’s a lot of demand for that ETF, the ICVC company issues a lot of shares to big brokers and investment banks who then add those shares to the market (by selling them to you, the retail customer!) - they take the proceeds from the sales, buy assets that the ETF tells them to and gives them to the ETF in return for those shares they were given to sell to you.
Why bother having two ways of buying a fund anyway?
The biggest noticeable difference between a normal ICVC and funds that trade on an exchange is that for normal ICVCs, they only let you buy or sell when they say you can.
For a lot of retail funds, that's usually daily, but for many funds, especially more exotic ones, they might restrict it to monthly, or twice a year, or even annually.
The price they quote will be based on what the fund’s NAV is, so what you see is what you get, but it takes longer to process and you might get locked in.
If you buy from an exchange, then you can buy and sell whenever there’s someone else willing to sell or buy to/from you (whenever the exchange is open) - and the price isn’t set by the fund, it’s set by whatever you and the other side decide.
In practice that means closed-ended funds and ETFs trade at a premium or discount to the NAV: the shares can be worth more or less than the sum of the parts - that reflects what people think about the management of the fund (or people trying to gamble).
Some investors like the certainty of the former, others like the liquidity of the latter.
An ICVC might decide to go with one or other because of things like costs and suitability for what they are investing in - each type of fund has different back-end compliance requirements and that costs money.
Why are there different classes and types of shares in open-ended funds?
The two main types of shares are “Accumulating” and “Income”. If you are talking about ETFs, they are usually called “Capitalising” and “Distributing”.
Whenever a company in the UK takes company money and gives it to shareholders, it’s called a “distribution”.
An Accumulating share is one where the company takes the distribution, and instead of giving it to you in cash, buys more assets with the money.
An Income share is one where the company takes the distribution and gives it to you physically to do what you want with it.
Why are the prices different if it’s the same fund?
For Accumulation shares, all the distributions stay in the fund, so each share represents more assets
For Income shares, cash actually leaves the fund, so it is only logical the price decreases just after the payment date, because these shares represents fewer assets than before (don’t forget cash is an asset!)
If you actually measure the returns including the payments you get if you have income shares, it is identical though.
So, what practical difference is there between having an Acc share or an Inc share?
An Acc share removes your ability to decide whether to reinvest the income from the fund - it's automatically reinvested by the fund itself, and that means you avoid any potential costs of reinvesting it yourself (such as trading fees). You also remove the temptation of withdrawing cash and spending it on other things!
An Inc share gives you the choice of deciding what to do with the income - you can withdraw it or make a different investment with it.
How do I make money from funds?
There are two ways you can make money from investments:
A share in a fund is just like any other share in a company - it can go up in value, and/or it can pay you distributions.
So, from your shares in a fund you make money from:
What about tax?
Distributions - Acc or Inc - are liable to income tax. Your fund manager should send you (or your broker) a statement telling you what the type of distribution is - whether it’s interest, or a dividend.
There are different tax rates for both - what type you get depends on the assets in the fund.
Capital Gains - when you sell, you might be liable to Capital Gains Tax.
Of course, by owning the funds via a pension or ISA means all those distributions and gains are exempt from those taxes!
What about Class A,B,C,D,X,Y,Z etc. alphabet soup shares I see everywhere?
That is a way for funds to sell the same fund to different types of shareholders - each share class will probably have different charges and different minimum investments, depending on who is selling the shares on the fund’s behalf.
Each class might have the two types, Acc and Inc as well.
What about UCITS and non-UCTIS and other confusing terms?
UCITS - Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities - is a designation brought about by EU regulations about how a fund is marketed to investors.
In the UK, there are three types of marketing classification:
QIS funds are generally reserved for more sophisticated (read: rich and advised) investors - e.g. the most complex hedge funds.
UCITS and NURS differ mainly in that rules surrounding what and how the fund can invest in. A NURS fund generally can borrow more money than a UCITS fund and invest in a wider range of assets (e.g. hold property directly).
A UCITS fund can be set up in another EU member state and sold to UK investors without much additional compliance. The other two schemes need a bit of investigation by the FCA first.
How do I buy a fund?
If it’s an exchange traded fund - either ICVC or investment trust - then you buy it like any normal share on the stock market.
If it’s a normal ICVC fund, then you have two options:
If you buy from the fund itself (i.e. direct from the company), you will probably need quite a large minimum investment (most funds don't like the hassle of dealing with lots of individual retail clients). You probably won't end up buying from funds directly. If you do buy directly, you also usually can't hold those shares in a wrapper like an ISA or a SIPP - you'd need a broker or platform for that.
Most retail investors buy via a broker or platform (interchangeable term).
The broker is like a reseller - they can buy the cheap share classes (i.e. the ones that, if you bought direct, would need £5 million at least) and resell them in little chunks to their client but still preserve the cheap fee.
Some brokers have "funds supermarkets" - they offer a range of funds from all sorts of providers (even if that broker is also an owner of ICVCs themselves like Fidelity): but you have to watch out for the fee they'll charge. Like normal supermarkets, they are free to charge different prices for the same products!
They also do things like collect tax vouchers from the funds and administer your ISA/SIPP or account.
In return they charge you a trading fee (sometimes) and a platform charge, which is on top of the fund costs.
Wait, fund costs?
Yes - fund managers need to make a profit too!
Well, not all of them: sub-favourite Vanguard operates a model where the “profits” of funds go back into the funds - making them perform a little more, or reducing the effective charges.
The fund ICVC is going to have costs such as:
That’s reflected in your ongoing charge/annual management charge/total expense ratio.
Some funds will even charge you on entry and exit - you need to watch out for all the costs!
What’s the difference between Ongoing Charges Figure (OCF), Annual Management Charge (AMC) and Total Expense Ratio (TER)?
The Annual Management Charge is just a fee the fund charges for the privilege of investing your money. It is only their fee - it doesn’t reflect all the costs involved.
So, Total Expense Ratio was introduced - it is meant to more accurately reflect how much of your investment disappears every year - not just to the fund management fee, but other things like entry/exit costs, dilution levies etc.
That terminology moved to Ongoing Charges Figure - which is meant to include the TER but also things like running the company, e.g. audit costs, regulatory communications, shareholder communications.
But that still isn’t the full story, because other costs are borne by the fund itself (which means, borne by all the shareholders equally) and show up as reduced performance - that includes trading costs (e.g. commissions to brokers), hedging costs, borrowing costs, stamp duty etc. That's why some funds charge dilution levies and are dual-priced: to try and insulate other shareholders from the cost of dealing with new buyers, or when one individual wants to sell. They want to avoid a situation where a large shareholder sells up and the costs are borne by lots of little shareholders: that would be unfair and not a good selling point.
That doesn't mean that funds that don't charge those are automatically screwing over the little shareholders though!
You have to go quite deep into the paperwork to find out exactly what they mean by their charges.
Rule of thumb: ignore AMC, look at OCF and see what it’s made up of.
Don’t forget you are paying this charge on top of your broker’s fees.
How much is reasonable for a fund to charge?
How long is a piece of string? You first look at the market for the thing you are trying to buy - remember a fund is just a pooled investment into something else. So, who else is trying to offer that as well?
Compare charges - and compare how closely they follow their benchmarks. There’s no point buying a fund that’s dirt cheap but underperforms the benchmark by a considerable amount in favour of a more expensive one that tracks the benchmark more closely.
Rule of thumb: for passive investments it will depend on what you're trying to track - Monevator has a good list of cheap funds you start your research at - for active ones, it depends entirely on what you are trying to buy - but think carefully about whether your choice is worth the money.
What about for a broker?
Cheapest for your investing habit - that means looking at how much you have to invest, how often you are putting money in and what you are buying.
Everyone is different - and you might have an ISA with one broker and a SIPP with another.
Be ruthless about the fees - no point wasting thousands (yes, over time, it could be thousands) on a shiny UI if you only check your investments once a year.
Here is a list of cheap UK online brokers:
Don’t forget not all brokers can buy everything. Make sure your broker can buy what you want!
What if the fund goes bust?
Depends what you mean by bust.
If you mean, the fund has made some bad investments and they are now worthless, then I’m afraid you are out of luck - such is the risk of investing.
If you mean has gone insolvent for some reason - say, the ICVC has been fined millions and can’t pay - then if the fund is authorised in the UK, you will be covered by the FSCS up to £50,000, if the fund has somehow lost the underlying assets.
Don’t forget though that legally all the company’s property is held by a separate, independent custodian: these are big, nameless and boring banks whose main purpose in life is to make sure that client property is safe.
In practice what that means is that the company property will just be transferred to another fund manager or returned to shareholders.
What if my broker goes bust?
The same thing as above - your shares are held by a custodian or ring-fenced and will just be transferred to a new broker. If they are missing for some reason, then you are covered up to £50,000.
The FSCS doesn’t cover you from making bad investments though!
What funds do I buy?
That’s not something this FAQ can answer - a fund is just a group of investors pooling their money together to buy something.
You first need to decide what that “something” is - how to put together your portfolio for your own needs. That’s something for another FAQ writer!
Our sidebar has a lot of reading about asset allocation. A fund is just a way of getting access to that allocation without having to put down a lot of money.
I bought some funds. Now what?
Sit back, tell your broker to regularly invest money and wait. Profit will (may!) come eventually. Investing is a get rich slow process.
Are you sure I shouldn’t check on them?
You should probably check on your funds once a year to make sure your portfolio is still on track for what you want it for. You'll probably have to rebalance unless you have bought a portfolio-in-a-fund product (see, you can put anything in funds!)
You don’t want to overcheck because research shows retail investors who check a lot end up costing themselves returns.
What's rebalancing?
You'll have to look at the next FAQ where we talk about the more advanced concepts - but rebalancing is limited to funds, it's about what's in your underlying portfolio.
What will happen to my funds if x,y,z happen?
It’s all about what your fund actually buys - the fund is just a wrapper.
Happy investing!
submitted by pflurklurk to UKPersonalFinance [link] [comments]

A word of warning from a degen gambling addict.

I'm posting this for two reasons. (1) To get it off my chest, and (2) to warn both those who are new to poker, and those who aren't, but might have the same problem I do and not even realize it. I don't want sympathy.
Hi, my name is Tom and I'm a gambling addict. That's how I introduce myself lately -- mostly at GA meetings.
I'm 25 years old. 2 years ago I was running my own successful business, had a gorgeous fiancee, had a big apartment in a trendy neighborhood with a nice car, a huge collection of records, musical instruments, artwork, and a thriving social life. I discovered and fell in love with poker two years ago.
Since then, a lot of things have happened:
As you can see, that's a lot of terrible shit to happen in such a short period of time. And it all started after I began playing poker. Now, I don't blame poker. I used to, but not anymore. It's not poker that led me here. It's my decisions and actions.
The reason I want to warn you, using myself as an example, is because I sometimes see younger poker players exhibiting the same flawed tendencies and logic that I had when my life went to shit.
I'm not addicted to drugs or alcohol. I didn't come from a broken home. No one in my family has a history of addiction. I'm from an affluent background. I'm college educated. I didn't get hooked to sports betting, table games, slots, or scratch-offs...
And I used all of those facts constantly, to delude myself into believing that I didn't have a problem.
I didn't just mindlessly donk off all my chips either. I studied poker relentlessly from the moment I became fascinated with the game. I read books upon books, immersed myself in twoplustwo, analyzed my hand histories, tried to eliminate my leaks -- I could go on and on. The point I'm making is that even if you're smart about playing and take it seriously, an addict is still an addict. The reason I lost everything playing poker is relatively simple: I used NO bankroll management, constantly took shots, and relentlessly chased my losses.
And I was delusional. I was a total degen fish, and thought that just because I knew how to thin value bet, calculate pot odds, balance my range, adjust my game etc. that all of my losing was just exceptional bad luck. But any decent poker player plays within their bankroll -- and I did not.
I've since stopped playing poker. I self-excluded from my favorite sites and casinos, I go to GA meetings on a regular basis, and now I'm doing okay. I live in a shitty basement apartment and work 80 hours a week at a shitty minimum wage job, but I'm okay now. I'll never be able to play poker again, and I've come to accept that. Stability is everything to me now, and I find myself feeling healthier and healthier -- both physically and mentally. Opening up a two-week paycheck only to see $800 is a bummer. But it's a way, way worse feeling to go to the casino with two grand and leave 12 hours later, knowing you won't have anything to eat when you get home.
I had to discover my addiction the hard way. If you stray from the limits your bankroll allows and find yourself pawning shit and borrowing money, I beg of you: take a step back and re-evaluate your motivations for playing poker. Don't go down the same path I did.
submitted by dudenonymous to poker [link] [comments]

[GUIDE] How I turned €500 into €15000 without risk / What have I learnt about betting during the last two years.

This is going to be a long read, and English is not my tongue language so excuse me in case there are some grammar mistakes.
I will try to explain from my experience which methods I have used during the last two years to make money in this business. Some of them worked pretty well, some of them not that good, but still I want to share with you guys some tips specially for those who just began on Betting.
To make this clear: The strategy I used and I am still using to make money on betting is the Bonus Hunting strategy I am explaining below. The rest of this post are tips and other methods which I have tryied but *not with that good results, and of course, with risk*
There are PLENTY of amazing posts / comments about this here, but it's always good the have a reminder. From my experience this are some of them:
That's way so far the best betting method I have ever used. It takes time to Master but it's really simply an everybody can do it. I am sure you all have heard of that. Just in case you didn't do it yet, here's a basic guide:
Eg) Bet365 offers €100 to new Users if you deposit €100. (They also give a €50 phone-bonus with small requeriments). Of course you can not withdraw the money inmediatly. You have to move the money X times before that.
The requeriments for Bet365 in Spain are x4. So Bonus money + Deposit money x4. That makes 800 EUR. And the minimum odd is 1,5 and you CAN'T bet on Asian Lines.
What do I do now? Well, you just have to sign up in different betting houses and move the money. Or in other words, bet against yourself. You will need a Surebet software for that, you can easily find one on the Internet. In my case I use this one because it's pretty simple.
All the betting softwares work more or less the same way, they show:
-Profit: Bet between -1,5% +2,5%. AVOID betting at 45% surebets because that's a mistake from the bookies, they will change your odd after betting if you get lucky to place your bet before they notice of their mistake.
-Bookmarker: Here it will show up between which bookmarkers you have to place your bet. For example, you have now €200 in Bet365, and you just sign up on Pinnacle. Then you have to deposit money on Pinnacle and place the bet in both websites. Let's say Arsenal-Chelsea. Over 2,5 goals in Bet365 is @2 and Under 2,5 goals in Pinnacle is @2,03. No matter what happens that you will make 0,83% profit and you will have moved €200 of those €800 you have to move. Or even better than that, let's say the Final Score of the match is 1-1, so U2,5 goals. In that case you would have won your bet on Pinnacle, which means that you would have made aprox. €200 profit on Pinnacle and you would have lost €100 in Bet365 (Remember that from those €200 just €100 are yours, the rest is the bonus part). You have won €200 on Pinn, you have lost €100 on Bet. So totally you have made €100 in just one bet.
That's the best case, hunting the bonus in just one move. If the final score would have been 2-2, then you would have made your 0,83% profit and keep betting between Bet365 and other bookies until you would have moved the €800.
-Event: That's where you are going to bet. YOU NEVER BET ON SPORTS OR MARKETS BEFORE DOING RESEARCH.
Eg) Liverpool-Aston Villla
Over 3,5 cards @2
Under 3.5 cards @2
Seems like a good way to move your money. But you have to know that a red card in some BH is considered as 1 card and in some others is considered as 2 yellow cards.
Let's say there was 2 yellow cards and 1 red card: That would make 3 cards in one BH and 4 in another one. Imagine O3,5 was were the red cards count as one and U3,5 where red cards count as two. You would have lost all your money.
How do I know which ammount I have to bet on every case? Let's say you have found a nice 2,7% profit bet between two betting houses and you have a bonus in one of them. You will get the bonus and also the profit, that's a good one. This betting house offers a €100 bonus if you deposit the same amount. So now you would bet €200 in one side and X amount on the other side.
Let's say ManUtd vs Hull City:
MU Asian Handicap -0,5 @1,97 - Betting House 1 (You have the bonus here)
Hull City X2 @2,06 - Betting House 2
You would bet €200 @1,97 at BH 1 and €191,26 at BH2. Here's the link from one calculator I'm using (all work the same way).
You can only hunt the bonus ONCE per person which means that If you want to continue doing this method you will have to find more people who wants to do it. That's what I have done, friends of mine gave me the documents I needed + PayPal/NetelleSkrill verified account and I do it for them. Of course I pay them around €100-€150. Which is not bad money for them considering they have to do nothing almost. Is it hard to find people? Well, I have 6 on the line right now, everybody wants money for free specially if they are students.
How much money do I need for getting started? I would say around €500. So you can sign up for a €100 Bonus depositing €200 in another house and you still have some extra-money just in case you win all your bets on the 'Bonus Betting House' and you haven't moved enough money to make the withdrawal yet. Once you start making money you can do this method for more than one person at the same time.
How much money can I make? Depends on the betting houses available in your country and the number of persons you are doing at once. UK is the best one so far (more BH, more offers) Spain is pretty good also. You have to do your own research for your country.
2. ARBITRAGE BETTING That's what you use for hunting the bonus - moving money between two betting houses without risk because you have placed bets on all the possible options -. You can do it independently. If your country has acces to betting houses where you don't get limit you can move money between them at high profit ranges.
Eg) Valencia-Sevilla.
BBTS YES @2,3 - Betting House 1
BBTS NO @1,97 - Betting House 2
There is a 6,85% profit on this Bet. Which is amazing. Now you could place a €2000 bet. For example betting €1032,72 on option 1 and €1205,69 in option two you would make €136,82 no matter what happens.
What is the problem with this method?
3. TRADING I have done Betting Trading for a while, you can do it WHILE the match is being played or before that. What is the method about? It's about trying to figure out what the odds of one match are going to do before they do. Obviously you need to have strong information about the match you want to bet on.
*Eg) Based on this week. Dortmund-Real Madrid. Dortmund to win opening odd was @2,78 (15th September). The odd right before the match for the same bet was @2,23. WHY? Well, because something has happened between these time. Real Madrid couldn't win Las Palmas the 24th + some injuries + Cristian Ronaldo haven't done his best. And Dortmund won Wolfsburf 1-5 and Freiburg 3-1 in 3 days.
Now let's see somehow you could have seen that Real Madrid would have trouble in Las Palmas stadium and Dortmund would continue winning on Bundesliga.
Let's say you placed a €1000 bet on Dortmund to win @2,78 (day when the bookies offered the match). Then you waited and right before the match was started you bet €1588 on Real Madrid +0,5 @1,75.
You would have made €191,43 and the match would't have even started.*
Check it yourself here
Of course this a risky-long term example, but you can do it before and after the lines-ups. If you think some player won't play because you have strong information about that, place your bet, wait for the odd to raise up and close the bet on the other side aftertwards.
Does anyone really make money this way? Yes. Let's say you know a professional tipster with a lot of subscribers. When this guy shows the next bet a lot of people who have payed for that service will bet there, and usually big amounts of money. If you somehow know where the influential-tipster is going to bet before he posts it to his subscriptors you have your business done. Open bet, wait for the odd to go down, close bet other side.
What does people who doesn't have access to this kind of information (mostly everybody)?. They do big research, check a lot of pages, be documented as posible. If you find something really good some or later the odd will drop. But it's hard to find.
Where to do trading? Pinnacle doesn't limit, that's why most of people uses that BH. Also betfair is an excelent option for this kind of methods.
Good luck with your betting!
submitted by jomavi12 to SoccerBetting [link] [comments]

Anyone interested in quitting together?

I am a 30 year old male, single, make just over 80k, never have been in a relationship, about 7K in debt. I graduated from a top school, and I am a little depressed with what I have done with my career. I was ultra motivated in high school, and I didn't start drinking seriously until college, and it was immediately a problem. I have struggled with binge drinking since college. I am a skilled Pot Limit Omaha player that has a problem with sports gambling and bankroll management, so I need to stop everything. I have gone on big runs, online and live (~10k dozens of times), but I haven't verified any of my online accounts. This means I can never cash out; I am just playing for the thrill. I used to research games and bet strategically, but the last 2 years my best have been mostly on sports that I know very little about, or bets that are high variance and are pure gambling (e.g. most runs in an inning, bets on quarters or halves, tennis, foreign leagues, andoveunders with no research at all, etc.).
I have a good job, and with my upcoming tax return and bonus, I will shave my debt down to 4k. It would be more, but I just used my tax return to get current on my mortgage. I had fallen behind on my mortgage, and gambled away my money instead of paying it on time. The stress this caused me is out of control. The thing is, there is no reason why I am in debt. Friends in similar situations are married with several investment properties. I have been successful at work, and I have joined a bunch of groups internally and externally. I want to mentor others because of my success and motivation, but only a few know of my gambling tendencies, and I can't I'm good conscious be a good mentor in this state. I want to start working out religiously and get in shape like I used to be. I want to use my first 2k out of debt to myself new suits so that I can wear a suit into work everyday. Currently, I dress below average at work, and it is impacting the way I feel.
My goals: get out of debt within 4 months, move closer to work, get promoted within the year or find a new job that pays better, get my credit score above 750 before the end of the year (it's currently 620 because of late payments and full credit utilization), stop dipping, start a serious relationship with a motivated girl (have never been in a relationship b/c of trust issues and potentially because of childhood abuse), buy an investment property in 2019, successfully start CFA or MBA by end of the year -- I failed CFA level one in December because I went on a gambling run and didn't study. I will probably return to PLO once I have proven that I can be responsible, but I am done with sports betting.
As someone that had over 100K wagered in one month on 5 dimes (was up or down a few K each day), I have seen almost every scenario; miracle losses and miracle wins. With sports betting, if you aren't extremely calculated and doing copious hours of research, being extremely selective, and hitting 80% plus, you're a loser - gambling wise - in my eyes. Instantly draining my bank account are stressing me too much lately. I am all too familiar with paying bills late because of gambling and living on cans of tuna and ramen. It just isn't worth it. I have gone months without gambling and a few years without drinking. The long periods without gambling are the best because I have money to live and there by function normally. I have learned to drink socially without blacking out any more.
I want to forge a relationship with someone who understands my situation. We can help motivate each other to accomplish our goals. Wether it is daily texting or emails, let me know. We can make it a group chat if many are interested. Please inbox me if you're interested.
Edit: added some more info to my situation, and corrected grammatical errors. Also, I have started to responding to those that inboxed me. I am on day 3 without gambling, and I could have easily frittered away the few hundred that I have to my name tonight on 2/28. I will make an update post every month to track progress. I am serious about sticking to this. I attribute me posting to not gambling tonight. I don't want to be a hypocrite.
submitted by JosephWest1987 to problemgambling [link] [comments]

[Table] IAmA: I am Vanessa Selbst, the highest earning female poker player, and a member of Team Pokerstars Pro. Ask me Anything!

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2013-02-28
Link to submission (Has self-text)
Link to my post
Questions Answers
What are your thoughts on Phil Galfond? Is he one of the best PLO players out there? Is he really as humble as people make him out to be? He's actually a huge jerk because I never got a chance to slide on his slide before he sold his apartment.
You seemed shocked with the call by Sylvia that ended the main event. (as a lot of us were) How much was Jesse playing based off the advice you were giving him up to that point? In other words, were you giving him more advice on spots to be more or less aggressive, or was it much deeper than that? Also, do you think fatigue was a factor in the hand, or did Jesse think Greg had a huge edge against him and was willing to take a huge gamble to try to end the tournament? Thanks and good luck! Great question, actually. Jesse is typically a cash player and a lot of the stuff that he was doing throughout the final table, like 5-betting light based on ICM, limping in certain spots or checking back certain hands that might be autobet in a cash game, was pretty new territory for him. I think he played really really well with relatively few mistakes until the last couple of hours, and I do think fatigue played a decent role in the mistakes he did make. As far as the final hand, I wasn't shocked at the call so much as the overall play - 3betting QJs on those stacks wasn't optimal just given the chance that Greg decides to 4bet shove light. I think Jesse hadn't realized they were only 30-something BBs effective because two hands ago they had been 45ish effective, and he was planning to 3bet to 5b shove. Once he 3bets and gets shoved on, I think it's actually a mandatory call given Greg's probably range (discounting extremely strong hands which he would probably 4bet small).
I didn't really want to be so hands-on at the final table because I wanted him to play his own game and to play it with confidence, but I guess I ended up talking to him quite a few times just because I kept seeing opportunities that I thought Jesse was missing. I just can't imagine how difficult it is under that kind of pressure, 3 handed for so long on poker's biggest stage. Most of the time I was just telling him to start bluffing more, and then he didn't, and then I told him again, and then he didn't, and then I yelled at him to do it... and then he ran a 3 barrel bluff and we were all good again :)
Hey Vanessa- What is the biggest challenge of being a queer woman in the professional poker world? Have you experienced outright homophobia from your peers/fans of poker? Heya. Happy birthday! (Is that what that slice of cake means? I'm a reddit noob!)
Um, being queer is awesome because it means I get to be in an amazing relationship with a woman, and it also means I get an extra community of really f-ing cool people. It also caused me to take all of these classes about race, gender, class, etc., which just made me so much more of an empathetic person generally.
If all that means that I have to block a few more trolls on twitter every week than I otherwise would have to, then so be it, I'll take it any day of the week. No one that is actually intelligent has ever given me any sort of trouble, so it's mostly no problem.
Digging a little deeper to answer your question, I would say my biggest challenge lies in perception. I think as a masculine lesbian, there is a tendency for people to expect me to be mean and aggressive. When I live up to that stereotype (which I do, sometimes, though not nearly all the time), the media wants me to play that character, so that's what gets shown. So honestly, I think a lot of what people see and characterize as me being "angry" results from selection bias of which moments the media is going to show from me, and I think some of that results from me being typecast based on my gender presentation. And that, I would say, is by far the toughest challenge.
If someone had well-tuned poker skills (obviously a sizable assumption), how would that person begin the path towards playing poker professionally? What kind of a bankroll do you need, where do you go, what games do you start at? Hey there, I'm glad my brother got you, too. He got me into reddit as well.
Thanks for doing this AMA and for your civil rights work. I'm a huge fan. Incidentally, it's entirely your brother's fault that I'm addicted to reddit. It was a good way to survive 1L. As far as your question - I think the most important thing is to play online. Putting in ridiculous amounts of volume while studying the game through discussions, videos, and what not is the best way to go about it. I think if you're really serious about wanting to take the plunge, take a few months and go live in Canada, Mexico, Europe, wherever. Play cash games, always making sure that you have 100x the buyin for the stakes you want to play (this is very conservative bankroll management but might be right in the state of today's games). Putting in that kind of volume is by far the best way to prove you can do it while building your bankroll and improving all at the same time.
What was your thinking behind 6-bet shoving in the infamous J7s/AA hand with Prahlad? Hmm - well at the time my thinking was that Prahlad's 5-bet range is super super polarized as deep as we were. Like, even with pocket kings I thought he would have just flat-called my 4-bet. I'm sure I'm right about all of that still, the problem is a polarized range to {AA, bluffs} is still super strong if it's AA 95% and bluffs 5% :D One of my bigger leaks is assuming people are as crazy in certain spots as I am, and that was just a giant misstep in assigning him a much bigger bluff frequency than he actually has in that spot.
Do you get pissed with people calling you 'probably the best female poker player in the world' rather than, as it should be given your results, 'one of the best poker players in the world'? As far as the female poker player comment - I don't get pissed, per se. I wish those distinctions didn't have to exist, but I understand that people want to make them, given how relatively little success women have had in poker thus far. As women get better and better and a few of the up and coming players become really elite (which WILL happen), hopefully that distinction will be made less often.
Thanks for doing this, you're one of my poker heroes. And you're welcome! This is pretty fun!
Hey, Vanessa! Remember our video project for High Honors French where we went to the mall, you asked people questions in French, and I "translated" them? I definitely remember... I still cite that project, to this day, as one of my best TV moments :D You have a copy of it lying around somewhere?
Why don't cash games get more attention? Especially on TV. What were the best and worst things about your experience on High Stakes Poker (the show)? Which tournament players are also really good at cash games? Cash games don't get more attention probably because stacks are deeper and thus decisions are more complex (thus bad TV). I also think a tournament tells more of a story with a beginning and end point, triumph and glory... cash games, while interesting to really serious poker players, just don't excite the casual viewer as much as seeing someone beat out 6000 other people to become a multi-millionaire.
Who do you think is the best poker player in the world atm? Phil Ivey, always Phil Ivey, will perhaps forever be Phil Ivey.
Bearing in mind your law background, do you believe we will see Pokerstars/FTP return to the market in the United States any time in the foreseeable future? I'm not sure, but I have a feeling Pokerstars didn't spend hundreds of millions clearing their name with the DOJ just to clear their consciences.
1). Do you think the poker economy is in a good place right now? 2). How about the legalisation of online poker in America, what time frame do you think we are looking at here? 3). Assuming online poker does get legalised some time in the future, how large of a poker boom do you think will undergo in comparision to the Moneymaker boom? 1) I definitely don't think the poker economy is in a good place right now - I don't think anyone would think that. The "poker boom" happened in the 2000s, and the poker economy will never be what it was in 2006. That being said, I am hopeful that we will experience another mini-boom when online poker comes back to the US and new sites pop up with more secure regulation, and all the television programming returns as well.
When in a downswing or losing streak, how do you go about keeping motivation levels up, confidence up, and head level? What's a downswing?
How do you improve your tournament game? Do you study board textures and use calculators (ICM/Chip equity) or do you approach it in more of a logic deduction way? Talk to friends. Review hands. Talk to friends. That's me, anyways. If you're an online player, looking at HEM and stuff would probably be helpful too, but I'm much more theoretically-motivated.
How much time is dedicated to bettering your game? It's really hard to quantify - I used to spend a lot more time on poker forums reading about poker and also a lot more time talking to friends about poker. It's definitely less now, but it's difficult to say just how much. I still think about it far more than is healthy, probably :)
What advice would you give to someone who wanted to become the best possible tournament player they could be? Flip well, young jedi.
Given all the cheating and mismanagement we have seen from people running poker sites over the years what responsibilities do you think Pros have to investigate how a site is run before they take a sponsorship deal with someone? What questions did you ask of Pokerstars before signing with them? I think it's pretty tough for poker players to thoroughly vet a site before representing them - especially in the unregulated world where so much of the important information about the management of a site isn't publicly known. That being said, if there's any good reason to doubt the integrity of a site, I think it would be irresponsible to turn a blind eye to it. As far as Pokerstars - they're the best out there, and I've said it long before I represented them. When they offered me a contract, I was just thrilled as I knew I'd be working with the best and most professional site there is... (I'm not even paid to say this stuff, I just really believe it).
If you could give amateur players one tip what would it be? Be more aggressive. If you think you might have the best hand, bet or raise. Don't be worried with the times you might not have the best hand... be worried about the times you do.
How have you adjusted your game as you have had more televised hands? I have definitely adjusted my game in certain ways - I can't take all the most obvious bluffing spots I used to be able to take, which is sorta lame. I have to look for more suicidal bluffing spots nowadays to be able to get away with them :)
Do you like the way that the WSOP is getting around excluding men from the Ladies event? As far as the WSOP - I don't like the idea that they have to use semantics to get around the laws since the laws should just allow for protected classes to have exclusionary events. (And women should be a protected class). Given that it is what it is, I like the fact that the WSOP is committed to doing everything in its power to keep the women's event women-only, so yes I do support their efforts.
Do you think a women only poker league would help more women get involved with poker? I think any time you create a more inviting space for women who don't have to deal with annoying misogynist BS from guys that they often have to deal with, it's going to get more women involved with poker.
You played an extremely exciting hand against Kevin Macphee in the EPT8 Berlin main event where he made a brave call with A9o following your 6/7bet shove. At the time you clearly thought his call to be a terrible one, have you had any time to reflect and do you still disagree with his play? What are your thoughts on this spot in general? Haha, yes, I've talked ad nauseum about this in other interviews so I won't go into any more detail here, but his play there was terrible. We are friends and I wish I hadn't blown up at him the way I did (a lot was due to issues behind the scenes around our friendship), but his play is and was completely terrible. That being said, Kevin is normally a great player.
Hi Vanessa. I do pretty well in donkaments, I have final tabled the Sunday Million twice. However, I struggle in cash games online. In your opinion, what are the biggest adjustments from tournament play one has to make to become a very good cash game player? Hi Sharky. I personally started with cash and moved to tournaments, and most of my friends that are awesome all around players did as well. I would say you have to just not overvalue your hands - I would start at cash by playing extremely tight preflop, and then open up as you get more comfortable with understanding other people's ranges. Because there are no antes, ranges are just so much tighter (it's not profitable to raise KJo in EP when there are no antes to steal), which means that there is less bluffing generally. Thus, top pair goes down tremendously in value. Most of the mistakes tourney players make in cash games is stacking off with top pair or overpairs in terrible spots (see: my hand on HSP, lol), so be cognizant of that, and fold top pair without hesitation when you get raised and it just isn't that likely that your opponent is bluffing.
What's #1 thing you look at when trying to read someone? For me, it's much more about betting patterns and bet sizing rather than a specific physical read. I just try to pay attention to when people are betting, on what sorts of board textures, and how big their bets are when they have it and when they don't... that kind of thing.
Hi Vanessa, congrats on your success at the PCA! It was fantastic to watch. Hey, great question. I don't know that there was a moment that rocked the boat for me... it was more of a long series of moments. In 2007-2008 I was playing full time - mostly cash games, though I was also traveling around to tourneys as well. I kept awful hours, often playing all night and sleeping all day. I rarely went to the gym, and I didn't keep in very good contact with my friends from outside of poker. Long story short, I was depressed, even though I was doing well at the game. That time made me think poker wasn't sustainable as a career if I wanted to be happy.
My question for you would be when you were starting to think you would like to turn professional and use poker as your main source of income, was there any moment that really rocked the boat and made you think "hang on, is this what I want to do" and if so, what was this moment and how did you overcome it? I left poker at that point and went back to law school, intending to leave poker for good. When I missed poker too much and decided to get back into it, I just decided that I was going to be healthy while doing it because I refused to go back to what I was like during that pretty dark year in my life. Now, I make sure that I take significant time off to catch up with old friends and to spend time at home with my fiancee and dogs. I play sports or go to the gym and eat healthy, I [sometimes] make time for other activities outside of poker, and I go see a therapist as regularly as I can.
Thanks a lot, I look forward to your continued success in 2013! For me, that's the biggest difficulty with life as a poker pro - the balance between a normal life and "poker life" and keeping it healthy even while on the road. Ever since making all that stuff a priority, I'm much much happier than I was 5 years ago.
Hey Vanessa, I have a bunch of questions: 1) What is the best way to improve now that there is no internet poker available for someone who wants to get better? 9) Yes, I almost always have a plan for the hand from square 1, but the plan can change if unexpected things happen or if something physical changes my read. Once you play so many hands, there are few situations that you aren't prepared for, for the most part. That is what makes tournaments so fun though - the changing stack sizes and tournament stages make for many more situations - it just makes sense that the more variables you add (tournament stage and stack size being varianbles), the more situations you will be faced with, combinatorically.
2) What specific details do you look for when you sit at a table to weed out amateu bad players and how do you play against them? How does this change from cash games vs a tournament? 3) What goals do you try to set for yourself when you sit down at a tournament in order to set up for a deep run? For example, do you try to double up before the 4th level? 7) Should a player be looking to build his/ her bankroll more through tournaments or cash games? 3) No specific goals - just play my hands and the other players day 1 and 2, and play my hands, the other players, and stack sizes the rest of the days. 5) The least skilled players always overbet when they have good hands because they want to protect, and then when they bet smaller you know they are less confident and can be bluffed off their hands. 7) Cash games are the best place to start, hands down. Less variance, and you build the necessary skills to succeed in tournaments down the line.
4) What is the best way to be a winning player at 1-2 NL when a player(s) doesn’t know how/ why to bet or how to bluff? Should you just play around the top 10% of hands and ABC straight forward poker, or is there a certain trick? What strategy would you use if you had to sit down at a lower stakes game? 8) When you were coaching Jesse Sylvia live, what information did you give him and when? Was it just after every hand that he played post-flop, or maybe every hand that he was involved in with a 3-bet or more? Was it hand ranges & aggression statistics from other players/ his image at the table? Were you coaching based on any physical or betting tells? 9) When you see a flop, what is your process for determining a bet? Do you play the hand all the way down through the river in your head and ask yourself “what will I do if he does this/ bets like this/ raises by this much/ if a certain card falls along the way?” and bet from there, or is there another system you use internally to determine the winning play? 1) volume is most important and if you can't play online, then log lots of live hours. use online forum strategy discussion boards through communities like Deucescracked (and other video sites have similar communities). Make friends at or above your level and discuss strat with them constantly. 8) I was mostly trying to pump him up, and usually telling him that he needed to start bluffing more. I think he thought his image was super aggro (which it HAD been, 3 months earlier), so I was trying to get him to understand just how tight it had appeared that he had been playing.
I've heard you talk about how balance isn't as important for tournaments because the player pool is more diverse. Can you give some examples of your frequent unbalanced play against players other than nits or showdown monkeys? Well I'm probably not going to tell you exactly which spots I'm always bluffing in, but there definitely are some of those. Probably some where I'm always for value, too, though those are harder to think of :D In general, I'm extremely balance-aware (maybe overly so) when I'm playing high rollers, or against anyone whom I know I will be playing again soon.
One easy way to think about balance being overused is with opening-raise bet sizing. Let's say you're playing at a table with a bunch of people who have no clue about poker... wouldn't you raise 4x with aces rather than 2x, since they'll probably call anyway, and you build the pot much better that way? Or let's take the example of bluff-raising a K73r board when an amateur bets out with like 30BB behind... I might float that board very often for balance against better players (or bluff-raise, but also value raise some good hands) but why not just minraise against someone who will fold every single unpaired hand, despite the fact that there's basically no hands I would ever take that line for value with?
People often fall into a robotic playmaking mode based on what's best against the entire set of all players, rather than exploiting the fact that when playing weaker players, you can be completely unbalanced, and in fact, it's more profitable to play that way.
When was the first time you won a considerable amount of money? and how did it feel? Mohegan Sun NAPT was my first huge score, for $750,000 (and I had most of myself since I had just quit my backer before law school). It was... um, surreal. I still never really understand when I win a lot of money - like I've said before, it's more of a score in a game than anything else. I never really buy things that are very extravagant, so the money doesn't change all that much honestly. The only thing I've spent real money on are law school, my condo, one nice car, fancy sushi, and now my wedding.
What was your most embarassing poker moment? I think I was probably most embarrassed by my QQ hand on HSP, just because of how god awful it was. I was really really thrown off by the lights and cameras and scrutiny of each hand on my first big televised cash game, and I hadn't played cash in quite some time. I think my nerves caught up with me, and what should have been a super easy fold just cost me like $170k. So yeah, that was probably my most embarrassing poker moment.
Best tilt story you had or have seen? I don't know if it's a tilt story, but any time Matt Marafioti goes on a facebook rant and it ends up on 2p2, that's pretty much comic gold.
How much math goes into your live poker game? It used to be a lot, but now in my old age I usually try to do it for all of 3 seconds, and then give up and get the dealer to spread the pot and make a bet size based on approximately "whatever it looks like there is out there." :P.
How many nights a year do you sleep in a bed that you own? Well probably around 180, but only because my primary residence is actually Las Vegas so I'm there for the WSOP and all the Bellagio tournaments. If you don't include Las Vegas, then maybe like 70-80?
Which side do you like in the recent Team Pokerstars vs. Team Fulltilt HUSNG challenge? What other projects/passions are you working on outside of poker? Do you ever plan to retire from poker? 1 - I like Team Pokerstars side. I won't say more about the specific matchups, but I like our side by a LOT. 3 - I started a foundation to support nonprofit organizations which I have yet to getting off the ground, but I'm currently funding it and excited to get it off and running. I'm also working on a TV show (though this is in poker) and hopefully if/when it happens, you will hear more about it. Other than that, my hobbies are cooking, sports, my dogs, and watching TV. My future plans (not immediate future, but not too far off) are to coach a little league sports team, volunteer at a civil rights organization, and go to culinary school.
4 - I don't think I'll ever retire from poker entirely, but I'll definitely cut back in a few years. I want to start a family eventually and I can't possibly travel as much as I do now if I am going to do that.
When you started getting into high buy in tourneys did you get staked, try to get in via satellites, or buy in the full amount? Hi there. I started playing high buyins in 2007 I believe, and I was pretty new to tournaments generally. My friend just put the word out that I was "pretty good" and that was all it took in those days. Timex and Steve PA picked me up and all my friends loved how one of my backers was 17. Anyways, I wasn't that good at the deep-stacked tourneys and I would typically bust day 1 or 2 running a giant bluff for all my chips and getting called every single time :) Luckily dudes were still folding to me at the WSOP and my success there in 2008 led to a decent profit for myself and my backers.
What about now, does Pokerstars cover most of your buy-ins? How does your sponsorship deal work with them? As for now, Stars covers some of my buyins and travel and some I pay myself... hopefully once I bink the main (3 times in a row) they'll begin to put me in everything and anything I want, but for now this is how it goes and I couldn't be happier with representing them.
Hey Vanessa! I'm a big fan! Yeah, I'm not sure how the misconception that I slowrolled came from, but I guess it might look like that from TV.
So, I'm sure you get this a lot, but of course you remember the Heads Up Championship match against Peter Eastgate... Some would call what you did a sick slowroll. Can you explain what you were thinking at the time? Anyways what happened was we were the last two people playing in our group after each of us doubling up and the match swinging quite a bit. The TV team had just made us take like a 20 minute break to get us to the feature table, despite our protests since we only had like 12 bigs and it was super annoying. Finally we are all set up and the very first hand I raise and he shoves and shows JJ and I guess I shook my head a little in disgust before flipping my QQ over. I just thought it was so absurd that the match would end that way and I felt bad for him that he had this setup on the very first hand after this whole thing had gone down. So my head shaking was part "lol what a cooler" and part feeling bad for him, and I guess it came across like a slowroll on TV. Peter definitely didn't think it was so that's what's important, I guess.
Of all the poker pros who did as well as you as quickly as you, how many of them do you think achieved it due to luck triumphing over skill? (i.e. what percentage of meteoric pros like you do you think have true winrates that are accurately reflected by their results?) Most poker pros that have had as many results as I have had are genuinely good players. It's hard to win consistently and just be terrible. That being said, none of us have true winrates and we've all run exceptionally well... that's just how variance goes. Personally, I don't think that over time, I've flopped more sets or had my AA hold more than the average person... I've just gotten extremely lucky in terms of running good at the major final tables I've made. And that's the most important skill to have in the world - knowing how to get lucky when playing for 6 or 7 figures.
Awesome player, really enjoy watching you. you haven't been playing much cash recently, as you said, but how do you think you would fare in today's online lineup? who have been the toughest players you'd faced when you were grinding online cash? I think I'd probably get destroyed in cash by the game's toughest players. I haven't been playing much cash in recent years and the game's elite are so far ahead of where they were when I played a lot. Given how many amazing players there are right now, it's extremely rare for someone to be elite in all forms of poker - and that's what makes Phil Ivey just so awe-inspiring.
Do you listen to any podcasts or watch any poker shows you could recommend? Mmm I don't really watch any or listen to any myself as I'm pretty busy, but I guess this is as good a time as any to plug some - Rootbone Radio is run by a few friends and if they're still making them, I'm sure they're hilarious. The twoplustwo Pokercast is usually a pretty good listen, if you have 5 hours/day to kill. Thinking Poker is another one that I've been on that's pretty sweet and run by a couple pretty smart dudes. Deuces Cracked runs a few podcasts, strategy and otherwise, that are pretty good.
I attended a short poker talk of yours during the WSOP a while back that I thought was extremely insightful. Any plans to write a strategy book in the future? Great, I'm glad you liked it. I don't have plans to write a book any time in the near future both because I'm extremely busy with tons on my plate, and also because it just isn't that profitable honestly. Mostly though, it just doesn't appeal to me the same way discussing poker through coaching or live seminar or the like does.
Hi, Vanessa- thank you for taking the time to do this! As a lawyer and a fan of poker, you were always my favorite to watch on televised games. You mention still not being convinced that poker as a career is your endgame; do you have any areas of law you're attracted to? I seem to recall an interview where you mentioned wanting to do something in the area of LGBT rights- is that still the area of law you'd practice if you decided to put that degree to work? Hiya - I'm still not 100% sure what my end game is. I doubt I'll be a full-time lawyer in any traditional sense, but I'll always work on issues about which I'm most passionate, in whatever sense that happens to be. It might be doing charity poker tournaments, or volunteering with organizations, or funding start-up non-profits with my poker winnings. I wish I had a more specific answer for you, but I don't. As far as what field, I would say I'm most interested in fighting for racial and economic justice, though the gays need love too, so who knows?
Are you ever going to make more vids for DC? Honestly, I'm not sure... it really depends if I start playing online a lot more again, in which case I could see myself making more videos. In the past when I have tried to make videos about live play, they have tended to not come out very well.
Can you post a picture of the engagement ring? I would, but I don't know how to do that :(
Hows the culture between pro's amongst each other? Are there alot of friendly relationships or do most people just go about there business? Is there alot of discussing on hands, anything like that? Yeah I mean just like any subculture, some people love each other, some people hate each other, etc etc. I think there is a great deal of camaraderie that results just from shared experiences, and also the fact is that a lot of us are very similar in personality and temperament. It can definitely get difficult sometimes just because when you're on the road with people you're seeing them so often, it can become almost sibling-like in some ways. The competitive nature of it can also be difficult because when you're ultimately competing against these people, it's hard to believe that anyone truly supports you or has your best interest at heart 100% of the time. I think it's rare to be able to have those sorts of relationships. Still though, I like almost everyone I've met on some level or another.
There is this cool thing that happens that is unique to poker though which is that there will be people I've never really hung out with before or even met, but if they are in a group of people I am hanging out with, we can just strike up a conversation as if we're old friends. Usually you know who everyone is and some mutual friends have talked about that person to you before, so it's like you've known them forever yourself. That's a cool aspect of it - the idea you can just hang out with anyone and you know something about each other - and can make otherwise lonely places feel less lonely sometimes.
Who is the most talented cash game player on Team Pokerstars Pro? Really tough to say as I haven't played cash with many of them. Isaac, Jason, Elky, Eugene, Ville, and I'm sure tons I'm forgetting are great cash game players as well as tournament stars.
Last updated: 2013-03-05 07:44 UTC
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