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Brexit Referendum Betting Odds | Oddschecker
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General Election Polling Discussion Thread (June 2020)

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race.
Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Pollster Date Released Race Trump Biden
Yougov 6/26 National 39 47
Marist/NPPBS 6/26 National 44 52
HarrisX 6/26 National 39 43
KFF 6/26 National 38 51
Climate Nexus 6/26 National 41 48
Fox News 6/25 Texas 44 45
Fox News 6/25 N. Carolina 45 47
Fox News 6/25 Georgia 45 47
Fox News 6/25 Florida 40 49
CNBC/Hart/POS 6/25 National 38 47
Hodas (R) 6/25 Michigan 38 56
Hodas (R) 6/25 Wisconsin 39 55
Hodas (R) 6/25 Pennsylvania 42 54
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Wisconsin 36 45
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 N. Carolina 40 46
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Arizona 39 43
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Michigan 36 47
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Pennsylvania 39 49
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Florida 41 45
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 N. Carolina 40 49
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Florida 41 47
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Michigan 36 47
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Pennsylvania 40 50
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Arizona 41 48
Data for Progress 6/24 National 44 50
PPP (D) 6/24 N. Carolina 46 48
Ipsos 6/24 National 37 47
Quinnipiac U. 6/24 Ohio 45 46
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/24 National 36 50
Morning Consult 6/24 National 39 47
Marquette LS 6/24 Wisconsin 42 51
PPP (D) 6/23 National 43 52
PPP (D) 6/23 Texas 48 46
Trafalgar (R) 6/22 Michigan 45 46
Echelon 6/22 National 42 50
Gravis 6/20 Minnesota 42 58
SurveyMonkey 6/20 National 43 53
Gravis/OANN 6/20 N. Carolina 46 43
Saint Anselm College 6/18 New Hampshire 42 49
Fox News 6/18 National 38 50
0ptimus 6/18 National 44 50
Civiqs (D) 6/18 Kentucky 57 37
Quinnipiac U. 6/18 National 41 49
UCLA/Democracy Fund 6/18 National 39 50
Change Research 6/17 Arizona 44 45
Change Research 6/17 N. Carolina 45 47
Change Research 6/17 Michigan 45 47
Change Research 6/17 Wisconsin 44 48
Change Research 6/17 Pennsylvania 46 49
Change Research 6/17 Florida 43 50
Change Research 6/17 National 41 51
Civiqs (D) 6/16 Arizona 45 49
PPP (D) 6/16 Georgia 46 48
PPP (D) 6/16 New Mexico 39 53
TIPP/Am. Greatness (R) 6/16 Michigan 38 51
TIPP/Am. Greatness (R) 6/16 Florida 40 51
NORC/AEI 6/16 National 32 40
EPIC-MRA 6/16 Michigan 39 55
Scott Rasmussen 6/15 National 36 48
Abacus Data 6/15 National 41 51
SelzeDMR 6/15 Iowa 44 43
Hendrix College 6/14 Arkansas 47 45
Remington Research (R) 6/13 Missouri 51 43
Meeting Street Insights 6/12 National 38 49

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
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Which awards are locked in? Which are still up for debate? a glance through the odds and campaigns in each category

It feels like it's been 5 years since we've seen actual NBA basketball, which may make awards debates and campaigns more difficult. Wait, who was playing well again...? Dennis Schroder? Seriously? Huh. Okay then.
As we soldier back into the bubble, there's a risk that awards voters will forget about that early part of the season (aka the vast majority) and fall victim to recency bias. Given that, we wanted to glance through the major races and determine which -- if any -- awards may still be in debate.
For this exercise, I'm using the current odds as listed by an online betting site (bovada). Note: the percentages do NOT add up to 100% because online betting sites like your money.
MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo: - 3500 (97%)
LeBron James: +600 (14%)
is the race over?
This betting site heavily favors Giannis Antetokounmpo, although some other metrics have it closer than that. Basketball-reference's MVP tracker lists Giannis at 50.7% and LeBron at 17.3%.
I'm more inclined to believe the latter and that LeBron James would be closer to 15-20% odds. No doubt, Giannis is a worthy MVP. He's been a dominant force (again) for the top statistical team in the league (again.) He's racking up 30-14-6 in only 30.9 minutes per game. In most circumstances, he'd win this award in a walk.
That said, you can never discount "narrative," and LeBron James has a few of those going for him. The Lakers have vaulted up to the # 1 seed in the West, outperforming preseason expectations. James has played exceptionally well, and even led the league in assists. Partly because of that, James' camp has successfully gotten the media to buy into the storyline that he made a sudden transition to point guard (ya know, because he had always deferred to his point guards like Mo Williams and Mario Chalmers in the past...)
More than that, James may benefit from this strange corona-bubble. He's been a leading advocate for continuing on, and as always, players tend to follow his lead. I can see more than a few media members giving James an MVP vote for "saving the season." All in all, I expect this vote to be closer than it should be (and I expect poor James Harden to finish well behind where he should as well.)
So James will get some votes, but can he actually win the award? I wouldn't rule it out. The Lakers are currently 3 games behind the Bucks for the # 1 overall seed. It's hard to imagine Milwaukee losing enough to slip, but it's not Wallace Shawn inconceivable either. If the Lakers somehow manage to catch them, then I actually think LeBron will win MVP. Of course, it's more likely the Bucks will hang onto the # 1 seed, and Giannis will hang onto MVP. But again, I don't think it's a stone cold lock -- yet.
Rookie of the Year
Ja Morant: - 3500 (97%)
Zion Williamson: +850 (11%)
is the race over?
It should be. Zion Williamson is freakin' amazing, but he's played 19 games so far. That's 40 less than Ja Morant, who has played stellar ball for a rookie from a small school, and somehow led the Memphis Grizzlies to the 8th seed.
Still, we can't rule out the risk of recency bias and a wild overreaction from the media. Williamson has a chance to lead the Pelicans up to the 9th spot, at which point they'd play Morant's Grizzlies. If Williamson can lead New Orleans to two victories over Memphis in a row -- and thus leapfrog them in the standings -- then it's very feasible the media would throw their vote his way. The media (and the league as a whole) tends to like this Zion fella, if you haven't noticed.
Sixth Man
Dennis Schroder: - 220 (69%)
Montrezl Harrell: +190 (34%)
Lou Williams: +450 (18%)
Derrick Rose: +3000 (3%)
is the race over?
Simply put: no. It's still a three-man race in my book. The Clippers' Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell finished 1-2 last season, and are right back in the thick of things this year. Among the two, it's harder to justify Williams' winning for the third season in a row. He hasn't played as well as last year, and hasn't been as big of a focal point for the Clippers' game plan.
With Sweet Lou taking a slight step back, it's opened the door for Dennis Schroder. He's having a career season in terms of efficiency. In fact, it's hard to understate his jump this year. In his six previous seasons, his career high true shooting percentage was only 53.3%. This season? He's vaulted up to 57.3%. The question is: have enough voters noticed? OKC has been a feel-good story this year, but Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tend to get the most credit for that.
Overall, I wouldn't be surprised if voters get lazy and just fall back on the highest scorer among the three. And even by those standards, the race is wide open. Schroder is at 19.0 PPG, Williams is at 18.7 PPG, and Harrell is at 18.6 PPG. A strong (or bad) week or two in the bubble may tilt this race in any direction.
Defensive Player of the Year
Giannis Antetokounmpo: -500 (83%)
Anthony Davis: +200 (33%)
Rudy Gobert: +2800 (3%)
is the race over?
Even among savvy and analytically-inclined media members, "defense" is still something of a mystery to quantify. We see a lot of herd mentality emerge for DPOY voting, with candidates needing to stake their claim early on and campaign all season long.
In terms of storylines and narratives, it felt like Anthony Davis had the early momentum. He's a wrecking ball (1.5 steals, 2.4 blocks) who helped improve the Lakers' defense from # 12 to # 3 this season. Still, Giannis Antetokounmpo has steadily built his case for a double MVP + DPOY, and currently ranks as the betting favorite on this site.
Personally, I believe it's a closer race than these numbers suggest. At the same time, I'm not sure what their play in the bubble is going to do about it. More likely, it'll be an influential media piece (like Zach Lowe pushing for Marc Gasol) that may get voters ushering on one side or another.
Most Improved
Bam Adebayo: -150 (60%)
Brandon Ingram: +250 (29%)
Luka Doncic: +500 (17%)
Jayson Tatum: +900 (10%)
Devonte Graham: +1000 (9%)
is the race over?
Again, this race feels "too close to call" to me. John King and David Chalian may be tallying up the counties all night long.
Earlier this season, I looked back at previous Most Improved winners and tried to find some common threads. On average, the winner improved from 11.7 PPG to 19.6 PPG (roughly +8 points.)
Historically speaking, Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum fit close to those templates. Ingram has swelled from 18.3 PPG to 24.3 PPG in his first season in New Orleans (+6). Tatum has made an even bigger leap, going from 15.7 PPG to 23.6 PPG (essentially our exact +8). Of the two, I may lean more to Ingram myself. Tatum's taking more shots and more threes, but he was already considered a proven star prior to this. Ingram had been more of a question mark before, but has now established himself as a potential max player. The key for him has been an improved FT%. In his first three seasons, he shot 62%, 68%, and 68% from the line. This year, he's up to 86%. That's major progress, and represents a massive difference in his efficiency "floor." Still, you wonder if Ingram's momentum peaked too early. Ever since Zion Williamson came back, it feels like Ingram has been an afterthought in the media.
Conversely, Bam Adebayo's reputation within the media is still surging. He's been a major reason for the Miami Heat's success this year, nearly doubling from 8.9 PPG to 16.2 PPG (+7.3 overall.) He's also doubled his assists (from 2.2 to 5.1). If you wanted to nitpick Adebayo's candidacy, you may suggest he was pretty darn good already. A lot of the statistical upswing comes from an increase in minutes, from 23.3 to 34.4 this year.
Overall, I'd say Abebayo is the favorite, but I wouldn't lock it in yet. A player like Brandon Ingram could get hot and have a few 40 point games, at which point the momentum may swing back in his favor.
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Rookie (SF) Rankings With Explanations

Tier 1
1 Joe Burrow, QB, 6'2/221, CIN (1.01)
Depending on roster need and team makeup, I would be fine taking one of the other tier 1 players above Burrow but Burrow is absolutely worth the #1 overall pick in any year. While he lacks elite arm talent, Burrow has incredible accuracy, poise, and mobility to manipulate the pocket. As a prospect, I prefer him to Kyler Murray from last year by a decent amount. CIN isn't the greatest situation from an organizational standpoint but they've assembled a decent amount of talent around him in AJG, Boyd, Higgins, Ross, and Mixon.
2 Clyde Edwards Helaire, RB, 5'7/207, KC (1.32)
Small, bowling-ball shaped runner with incredible contact balance, lateral agility, and pass catching ability. Has decent burst but lacks prototypical long speed and size. Pre-draft, CEH was my RB5 but he moves up here with the landing spot and draft capital. Even as my RB5, I was still a big fan of CEH and in KC he doesn't need to have bellcow type size in order to produce at a high level. His game vs Alabama my be the best game from any RB prospect this year.
3 Jonathan Taylor, RB, 5'10/226, IND (2.09)
My RB2 pre-draft, Taylor is right there with CEH in the top tier. Taylor is a huge RB that excels in a power rushing attack where he can use his combo of size and burst to explode into the second level. That's exactly what he gets in IND, the perfect landing spot for his skillset. Potential issues with pass catching usage may limit his ceiling a little but the floor is incredibly high.
Tier 2
4 D'Andre Swift, RB, 5'8/212, DET (2.03)
My pre-draft RB1 and the #2 RB drafted, Swift is a huge value right now in all the rookie drafts I've done. Even when on the field with Chubb and Michel as a freshman, Swift stood out as the best RB of the three. Ridiculous lateral agility to make defenders miss, great burst, fantastic receiver, and solid contact balance. The DET landing spot doesn't worry me as much as it seems to worry others. It's clearly below KC and IND (otherwise he'd be in tier 1) but he's tied to a very good, reasonably young QB and I like the offense as a whole with Golladay, Hockenson, MJ, and a solid OL. Kerryon does worry me, however, and there is some risk that Swift never take over as a bellcow.
5 Cam Akers, RB, 5'10/217, LAR (2.20)
My Predraft RB3 in the same tier as Swift and Taylor, Akers has all the tools you look for in a stud RB - size, violence, burst, contact balance, lateral agility, and pass catching. Moreover, he landed in a great landing spot in LA and received very good draft capital. This time last year people were describing the Rams as the best system for RBs in the NFL. Huge upside here for Akers' usage as a bellcow and he has the best opportunity of any of the RBs this year except for CEH.
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6 JK Dobbins, RB, 5'9/209, BAL (2.23)
I really liked Dobbins coming out but had him a tier below Swift, Taylor, and Akers. Very solid runner in all areas but lacks an elite, defining trait. I really like the landing spot in BAL long term but there is concern about this year with Ingram plus I don't see the potential for much receiving usage with LJax. Really like the player and I'd be ecstatic to have him but I don't see him as the consensus RB3 as recent trends suggest.
7 Tua Tagliovola, QB, 6/217, MIA (1.05)
If you really need a QB I'm fine moving Tua to the top of this tier. Like Burrow, Tua lacks ideal arm talent but wins with his mobility and accuracy. While Tua has a longer track record than Burrow, he never put up a season like Burrow did last year. The injuries scare me and there are some question marks about how well Tua can go through his progressions - at Alabama there were a lot of first read throws. The situation in Miami is ok, I like the OL picks that MIA made but this is still a rebuilding team with a ton of holes.
Tier 3
8 Jerry Jeudy, WR, 6'1/193, DEN (1.15)
The best separator in the class, Jeudy reminds me of Stefon Diggs. Very pro ready WR with advanced releases off the line and route running. Phenomenal YAC ability with the ball in his hands. Knows how to manipulate his speed to set up defenders. Not a very physical WR and you won't see him making many contested catches. Situation isn't great with Sutton next to him but Lamb is in a similar touch squeeze so I'll take my preferred talent.
9 CeeDee Lamb, WR, 6'1/198, DAL (1.17)
The best playmaker in the class. Much better ball skills than Jeudy but lacks the quick twitch and ability to separate. Plus he faced easier competition and didn't have to deal with a lot of press coverage. While he's competing with a locked in WR1 in DAL, Lamb landed in an explosive offense with a young QB. Think he can be very productive as Dak's #2 target.
10 Jalen Reagor, WR, 5'11/206, PHI (1.21)
Loved Reagor pre-draft and he received premium draft capital in my favorite landing spot. Reagor immediately stands out when watching him. Extremely twitched up and explosive, Reagor separates as well as defenders struggle keeping up. Provides a deep threat but has also flashed the ability to make tough contested catches and good sideline footwork. PHI was my favorite WR landing spot in the class as I'm a big fan of that offense and Wentz and they have a huge hole at WR.
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11 Justin Herbert, QB, 6'6/235, LAC (1.06)
I don't like Herbert as a player but this is the value play in superflex. Herbert has great arm talent and mobility but he had lots of easy reads at Oregon and consistently disappointed. Struggles out of rhythm and a little robotic as a player. Still, the Chargers situation is great and the top 10 draft capital should guarantee him a starting role for a while. Great value in drafts if you can get him at the end of the 1st.
Tier 4
12 Brandon Aiyuk, 5'11/205, WR, SF (1.25)
One of my favorite players pre-draft. Can win all over the field in a variety of ways - explosion out of breaks, YAC ability, deep speed, or physicality. Has the rare ability to come out of his breaks without losing any explosion. Love the draft capital and the landing spot is ok. I trust Shanahan and that should be a productive offense for a long time. Issues arise given the run first nature of the offense and competition with another great young WR in Deebo. Watch the Oregon game if you want to get excited.
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13 Justin Jefferson, WR, 6'1/202 MIN (1.22)
The safest WR after Jeudy and Lamb, Jefferson should be able to step into the slot immediately and produce. If you want to lower your risk then pick Jefferson. He's very quick out of his breaks, creates consistent separation from the slot, very good YAC ability, and flashes contested catch ability. I don't see him playing outside and he's not as dynamic as other WRs in this class. Very good landing spot in MIN with Diggs' departure. Watch the Oklahoma game if you want to get excited.
14 Henry Ruggs, WR, 5'11/188, LVR (1.12)
The first WR drafted, Ruggs could be a great value where I have him ranked. Still, I love the WRs above him and I wasn't a big Ruggs fan coming out. Incredible speed and flashes some toughness and decent route running as well. Think he struggles with physicality and didn't separate as much as he should because he's a long strider rather than a compact, twitched up player. I think Gruden is going to feed him a ton of targets and thus could be very productive early on.
15 Laviska Shenault, WR, 6'1/227, JAX (2.10)
Absolutely love Shenault. Comp is Sammy Watkins. Great combo of size, physicality, explosivenes and YAC. Needs refinement but it'll be hard to keep his playmaking off the field. Biggest concern is injuries. His 2018 games vs Nebraska and game vs USC this year are great.
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16 Tee Higgins, WR, 6'4/216, CIN (2.01)
Big WR with huge frame to extend himself for difficult balls. Timed speed was disappointing but had the ability to threaten deep at Clemson. Fantastic hands and advanced footwork. Risky as he struggles with physicality (he'll see a LOT more of that in the NFL) and not a great separator. Love the situation with Burrow and the draft capital.
17 Michael Pittman, WR, 6'4/223, IND (2.02)
Decent speed and explosion for his size, some YAC ability, fantastic jump ball catcher, huge frame which he uses to shield defenders. Landing spot in IND is good for the next few years with Rivers but some worries once Rivers leaves. Has a clearly defined role as the X WR and complements Hilton and Campbell very well.
18 Jordan Love, QB, 6'3/224, GB (1.26)
Probably the best value in SF leagues of all the rookies. I'm a big Jordan Love fan (especially at his price). Has jaw dropping arm talent and extremely mobile. Unlike Herbert, Love was asked to make extremely difficult plays and delivered. His issues aren't with accuracy but moreso decision making. He'll lock onto his first read at times and make incredibly stupid throws. I'm ok with the landing spot as I trust GB as an organization, however, he'll probably sit for a few years. Huge upside here.
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19 AJ Dillon, RB, 6/247, GB (2.30)
Like Love, he's another amazing value in drafts this year given the depth and quality of the class. In any other year, a 2nd round RB with his size, athleticism, and production would be a top 5 pick but you can get him in the mid/late 2nd consistently. I didn't love the player coming out, but I recognized that he has the ability to be a big time producer if put in the right type of offense and that's exactly what happened in GB. I think his production this year has been undersold and with Aaron Jones' contract expiring next year, he'll likely take over as the RB1 in 2021.
Tier 5
20 Antonio Gibson, RB, 6/228, WSH (3.02)
Big upside low floor pick. Gibson is one of the most exciting players to watch in this class with his big play ability, size, and explosion. At Memphis he played mostly slot WR but he was a pretty shitty WR and his upside lies at RB. He has a lot of work to do as he doesn't know what he's doing yet as a RB but the traits are really exciting - contact balance + burst. Could be David Johnson if things hit right. Don't love the landing spot as I'm still very high on Guice plus there is still a question mark regarding how Washington plans to use him. If he's used as a Wgadget guy then I don't have much interest in him.
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21 Denzel Mims, WR, 6'3/206, NYJ (2.27)
I was never as high as others on Mims and didn't get the round 1 hype. However, his combination of athleticism and ball skills are very exciting and worth betting on here. He's a very boom/bust type of prospect. Landed in a very good spot with a young, good QB in Darnold lacking a #1 WR.
22 Bryan Edwards, WR, 6'3/212, LVR (3.17)
Absolutely loved Edwards pre-draft and had him in my top 50 overall players. He's big, physical, explosive, versatile, and has fantastic ball skills. Landing spot is ok - the Raiders have a long term need at X WR but the team drafted Ruggs first so I think Gruden is going to prioritize Ruggs. Could be a few years before Edwards pays off.
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23 Zack Moss, RB, 5'9/223, BUF (3.22)
Very similar player as David Montgomery. Excellent contact balance, toughness, pass catching ability, plus some wiggle but lacks juice. If there is a crease it takes him too long to hit it. Still, pretty good value to get a David Montgomery level player at 2.12. Landing spot is ok and your feeling about it is dependent on how you feel about Singletary. I love Singletary so I'm not high on the landing spot but its very possible that BUF doesnt see Singletary as a lead back.
24 Ke'Shawn Vaughn, RB, 5'10/214, TB (3.12)
Didn't like Vaughn pre-draft and I was very surprised when he went this early. Vaughn is a solid all around RB that should be able to produce if given volume but I don't see any dynamic traits. Very much a replacement level RB. Still, TB has a potential opening at RB and the team spent good draft capital on him.
Tier 6
25 KJ Hamler, WR, 5'9/178, DEN (2.12)
Could easily have Hamler at the end of tier 5. Immediately stands out on film with his twitchiness and speed, defenders simply cannot hang with him. Don't see a huge difference between him and Hollywood Brown purely as prospects coming out. Effortless separation with his quickness and speed. Could be more valuable in real football than the NFL. Don't like the landing spot for fantasy as he's stuck behind two great, young WRs.
26 Chase Claypool, WR, 6'4/238, PIT (2.17)
Freaky player with his combo of size and athleticism. Great draft capital to a team that has consistently developed WRs. Massive player with explosiveness to put CBs on their heels quick. Biggest asset right now is his YAC - should immediately be a weapon on screens and crossers. Flashes ability to box out defenders but is not natural attacking the ball and lacks overall smoothness to his game. Landing spot is odd with JuJu and Diontae already in place, however, if JuJu leaves a lot of opportunity opens up. Watch the Iowa St game to get excited.
27 Van Jefferson, WR, 6'1/200, LAR (2.25)
I had a 3rd round grade on Jefferson pre-draft so I like the player. Projects as an NFL-ready slot WR with quickness and route running nuance. Got the best of LSU star freshman CB Stingley this past year. Odd landing spot as the Rams already have Kupp in the slot and I can't see either moving outside.
Tier 7
28 Darrynton Evans, RB, 5'10/203, TEN (3.29)
One of the most explosive players in this class, Evans is a threat to break off a big run at any time. With his lack of physicality and size, I don't see him projecting as a starting RB even if Henry leaves next year. Likely a career committee back.
29 Anthony McFarland, RB, 5'8/208, PIT (4.18)
Really fun, explosive player that should get on the field immediately. Like Darrynton Evans, I struggle seeing him taking over a feature back but should have a long term role given his explosivness.
30 Cole Kmet, TE, 6'6/262, CHI (2.11)
Not a very flashy or exciting player but projects as a solid starting NFL TE. The draft capital really helps and has a decent floor given his ability as a blocker. Think Kyle Rudolph type of career if he hits.
31 Adam Trautman, TE, 6'5/255, NO (3.41)
Big, physical TE that dominated small school competition and can win in traffic and over the middle of the field. Isn't especially fluid out of his breaks and doesn't project as a potential top tier TE. Really like that NO traded so much for him and I trust Sean Payton.
32 Devin Asiasi, TE, 6'3/257, NE (3.27)
If any TE in this class develops into a top tier fantasy TE, I wouldn't be surprised if it was Asiasi. Former high recruit that transferred to UCLA and didn't produce until his last season. He's smaller than Kmet and Trautman but he's just as good of a blocker and he's way more fluid than both. Really like the landing spot and draft capital as well.
33 Joshua Kelley, RB, 5'11/212, LAC (4.06)
This could be too low as the situation is phenomenal and draft capital is decent but I'm not high on the player. He's solid and can produce if given volume in a good situation (both very possible in LAC) but doesn't have any standout trait and looks like a replacement level player to me.
34 Lamical Perine, RB, 5'11/216, NYJ (4.14)
A better version of Joshua Kelley to me but in a worse situation. Very solid all round back that is a very good receiver. Lacks juice or standout qualities but solid overall. If Bell declines, leaves, or gets injured I think Perine could step in and surprise. Some worry about the Frank Gore signing.
35 Devin Duvernay, WR, 5/10/200, BAL (3.28)
Slot WR with strong hands and great ability with the ball in his hands but struggles to create separation out of his breaks. Should be great on screens and special teams.
36 Gabe Davis, WR, 6'2/216, BUF (4.22)
Big body WR with great physicality and decent speed/explosion for his size. Project player with some upside.
37 Joe Reed, WR, 6/224, LAC (5.05)
Really love the player, Reed is a twitched up YAC guy with RB type of size and ability with the ball in his hands.
38 JaMycal Hasty, RB, 5'8/208, SF (UDFA)
My favorite 3rd down/satellite back in this entire class, Hasty is lighting quick and explosive with great pass catching ability. If any team can turn a UDFA into a star it's Kyle Shannahan and there is a ton of opportunity in SF.
39 Darnell Mooney, WR, 5'10/176, CHI (5.28)
Deep ball threat with good production and CHI has a clear need for that type of deep threat.
40 Mike Warren, RB, PHI, 5'9/226, PHI (UDFA)
Not sure that I would actually draft him here but I wanted to get his name on the list. Really fun player to watch, he's like a 95% version of Zack Moss. Great size, awesome power, surprising wiggle and pass catching ability but lacks the requisite explosive qualities. I actually really like the landing spot in PHI as they do not have a bigger back to complement Sanders.
NOTICE THAT JALEN HURTS IS NOT ON THIS LIST. He'd probably be around #35 but I have him low enough to where I probably won't every draft him so I didn't include him on the list.
submitted by Chwf3rd to DynastyFF [link] [comments]

28/06/20 - FA CUP QUARTER FINAL - Leicester City vs Chelsea - Match thread

Leicester City hosting Chelsea at the Kingpower in FA Cup Quarter Final
4pm Kick Off // Coverage starts from 3:30pm
Prize Pool for Winners of Quarter Final: £720,000

Coverage:
BT Sport 1, BT Sport Extra 1 and BT Sport Ultimate throughout the UK (EE mobile customers can stream BT Sport coverage at no cost for three months).

Betting Odds (as taken from Paddypower today at 10am):
Home 21/10 Draw 23/10 Away 5/4

Players Out:
"Dennis Praet is available but Rodgers will be without Daniel Amartey (ankle) and Ricardo Pereira (Achilles)."
"Fikayo Tomori is still out, while Callum Hudson-Odoi is also likely to be unavailable again, despite being back in training. Jorginho is available after suspension, but Lampard opted for Gilmour as a substitute against Manchester City, which suggests the young Scot could deputise in midfield."

Notable Manager Comments:

Rodgers said: “In our time together we wanted to create history of our own and throughout this season we have broken records and had performances that have enabled us to do that. The club has not won the competition. There is a real motivating factor for us to do it for ownership, the players and supporters. We’ve shown our intent in the cup competitions, getting to the semi-final of the League Cup and now the quarter-final of the FA Cup. We now want to get to the final. That has been the aim since the outset.”
Reference: https://www.bt.com/sport/news/foxes-in-hunt-for-fa-cup-glory-as-brendan-rodgers-targets-historic-triumph

“Asked about his team selection to face Leicester, Lampard said: "We will certainly have to think about if we need to rotate a bit to keep the freshness in the players and it is nice that I can call upon players, particularly in certain areas of the pitch.”
Reference: https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/leicester-chelsea-team-news-lampard-4271454

Form Against Chelsea this season in the Premier League:
01/02/20 - 2 - 2
18/08/19 - 1 - 1
submitted by djdood0o0o to lcfc [link] [comments]

Post Pull Depression - The Final(ish) One

Hello and welcome to Post Pull Depression, the only thread that ends today!
So yes, let’s just get this out of the way. This will be the final PPD for at least the foreseeable future. No jokes. You see, I fucked up. I had a great job where I could slack all day long and be able to do this high effort, low quality bullshit but then I went and did something stupid. I decided to take on more responsibilities at work. Stupid, very stupid. Might not even get more money for it either (now that’s really stupid). And so between that, PPD starting to feel like a chore, and with NV coming which are all just unit rehashes anyways it’s just time to stop doing PPD after 3 years and 150+ of them.
PPD Index
Now, I won’t be going anywhere. I’ll still be on the DHT, I'll still be drunkenly ranting on the blog, I’ll still do the Season 3 story recaps and the occasional Stingy Should You Pull, the Awards Ceremony (planning now in session for Q2) but it’s time to be relieved of the weekly burden.
However, if you thought I was going to quit before I got the chance to shit on WotV, well then you got another thing coming. Ah, one last forced 80s song for old time’s sake!
Now, let’s take a look at the FFT wannabe units!

MontMont Applesauce

Boring ol’ Protag #57830
I have actually played through most of the released WotV story and I can’t remember a single interesting thing about Mont. I was all set to say “unlike in real FFT with Ramza”… and then I realized there’s nothing that interesting with Ramza either. He’s a little too into his sister (and hopefully not “in” his sister) and there was the comedic “Where’s the Phoenix Down” scene. Aside from that, there’s nothing interesting about Ramza at all. Kudos to them for at least not going anime trope with him (how about he’s scared of ghosts and a tsundere!)
Anyways, my point is Mont is just as boring as Ramza. So I guess WotV nailed it?
Stone Throw - Physical damage (0.1x) to one enemy; Increase chance of being targeted (100%) for 3 turns to caster
STOP THROWING FUCKING STONES YOU STUPID FUCKING AUTO AI. FUCKING STOP IT. AND AYAKA IF YOU CAST “IMMOBOLIZE” ONE MORE FUCKING TIME I WILL TAKE YOU OFF MY HOMESCREEN.
Meeting Machérie - Increase ATK (50%); Increase LB damage (50%); Increase mods to shit
I think I need some help from people who either paid attention or were sober during the story, but at some point Macherie went from “you need to act like a real man” to “I absolutely love you with every fiber of my being.” This seemed to have happened really fast, but I also have no idea how many days the story is taking place over. It all seems like one really long night.
TMR: SKIP!
Destined Prince - Increase HP (20%); Increase ATK/DEF (40%) when equipped with a sword
This might be passable without the sword conditional, but with it it can just fuck right off. Free is not free when it takes up an ability slot and clutters the menu. This is Destined for the garbage.
STMR: Someone say Lion!?
Lion Emblem - HP+272, ATK+23, DEF+23, SPR+23, Enable 5 LB per turn skill
Bet Squall’s getting a huge hardon looking at another piece of Lion gear.
Why is the HP a weird 272 amount? Because that is what it is in WotV! Why does WotV have such weird HP amounts… uh I don’t know…

Depression: LOCKED

Sorry, you need Limit Break Level 5 to view this. Please go and slowly collect 200 shards and just be thankful it’s not a limited unit so the shards are always available and you aren’t stuck with like an LB3 Ramza forever… you know, for example. Nothing like pulling for a limited time unit and then having to grind for them during the limited time event as well! Oh how fun. You get to not have your cake and not eat it too!

KitoneKitten

It’s pronounced key-tone not key-toe-nay, they romanized it bad
A shinobi girl who serves the former kingdom of Leonis in Ardra. Originally from Saiga, she swore to serve Leonis for life.
Wow, FFBE gave her a single line for her bio. How generous of them. Then again, I don’t really know which is Kitone or which is Shadowlynx. I have no idea which ninja is on which side or really whose side anyone is on or whose line it is anyways.
It doesn’t help that half the people in the game are blond. Like all of Mont’s family should have been blond and then no other family. Instead you have Horne who looks too much like Mont’s dad whose name I can’t remember. Then apparently different houses have their special squads too like {{caelum}} and {{flagulmuffin}} and I don’t know why they do {{this}} to the name, I thought that was some white power thing or was that (((this)))? I don’t know because I’m not a piece of shit.
Anyways, it’s too goddamn hard to keep track of this. Only one hair color per house, and only one house gets special squads or all houses get ONLY one special squad. Imagine starting the FFBE story with all of the Sworn 8 and 8 Sages of Hess all jumbled together at once. That’s what this is doing.
TMR: Lame
Saiga Gauntlet - Accessory HP+142, ATK+43, DEF+26, 20% evade
Wow, a whole 20% evade on an accessory! This puts it in 5th place tied with fucking Sazh who was released in 2016 as a 4* 3* unit. And this is a rainbow on a collab banner.
The game has set a standard, and that's 25% evade on an accessory. Now, they can do one of two things, up the amount from the standard to 30% evade (people would be losing their shit over this) or match the standard at 25% and throw in some nice ATK or HP or something. You never lower the standard that you yourself has already set.
STMR: Somehow Lamer
Night-Blooming Flower - Increase ATK (70%); Increase equipment ATK (25%) when dual wielding; Increase lightning resistance (60%)
And it keeps getting worse! 25% TDW? Go fuck yourself! (PS: I’d watch Kitone fuck herself, she’s putting those kunai where? The handle part, not the sharp part I’m not that sick.)

Depression: LOCKED

Sorry, you need Awakening Level 6 to view this. Yes, that is different from Limit Breaking a unit. This doesn’t take shards! Instead it just takes a crapton of Rainbow Spheres as does everything else! Nothing like a universal bottleneck. Do you want to LB or Awaken or Awaken a Vision Card? Better choose wisely or just go buy a 10 pack in a paid bundle. Also, you need Rainbow Fragments of Thought too? Like there’s now a second semi-universal bottleneck as well. Wtf?

SterneSterne is not that stern

No, he’s not wearing an eye-patch
The younger twin born to King Oelde and Queen Helena of the former kingdom of Leonis in Ardra.
King Oelde! That was the dad’s name! Anyways, Sterne is the only non-blond member of the family which is why he turned evil. Spoiler alert. Just in case you have severe brain trauma and couldn’t recognize the Sasuke in the room immediately. Anyways, can’t really blame Sterne as he’s the bestest ever sword fighter and wants to lead the front line in battle but then his dad (whose name I can’t remember) was all like “no, you're not blond we’re sending Mont out.”
Ironically, I’m likely to pull him for his STMR and then bench him! True to lore!
TMR: The Fated Prince of Bel-Air
Fated Prince - Increase ATK (50%); TDH 50%
Not to be confused with Destined Prince. Fated and Destined are two totally different things.
STMR: The Good Stuff
Lion Armor - HP+434, ATK+38, DEF+38
So what’s so special about this STMR?
Wall of Field - Increase LB damage (50%); Increase dark resistance (50%)
Wtf is a wall of field? Anyways, it’s that sweet 50% LB damage that’s getting the hype. While this is just marginally better than AK Rain’s TMR, this is light armor while the former is heavy armor. So more LB boosting options for more units! Worth 24k + omni + STMR moogle? I dunno…

Depression: LOCKED

You need to have your 3rd job unlocked to level 12 to view this. Each unit has three jobs and their main job. But oddly, their first sub-job is also their main job. Take Ayaka for instance her main job is always White Mage (can’t be changed) and she can always cast Cure, Curaga, Holy and other stuff once learned. But if you want to cast Cura, Curada, Raise then you need to also equip WHM as her sub-job… because that makes a lot of fucking sense!

Post Pull Depression

I’ve been a little hard on WotV, but I am still playing it. Not really sure why. I am being a bit of a hypocrite too since the thought of spending money on the game just makes me chuckle and I mentioned earlier if a game isn’t worth spending any money on is it really worth playing? Shouldn’t I be spending the time playing a game that is actually worth spending money on? I dunno… Here am I doing it this way. I do enjoy the story, characters, art and music though and I keep my time commitment really, really low. I guess we’ll see what happens once I catch up to the story and when Agrias is released!
Well, it’s been a fun ride and I have zero ragerts looking back on all the time I “wasted” doing this. Like I said up top, I’m not going anywhere. Wherever a shitpost is needed, I’ll be there. I do want to thank everyone who has ever made it through an entire PPD start to finish, I know it’s tough. And while I do say that I write these for myself that is only partially true since if these things were to only get 3 or 4 upvotes and 2 comments each week, I would have stopped long ago. So a big heartfelt thank you to you all. Also, I’m not crying, you’re crying.
See ya some future banner!
(PS: I am planning on doing one for the last esper units and Vaan, and if those are the next two banners I’m going to look like a giant tool)
submitted by TomAto314 to FFBraveExvius [link] [comments]

How To Actually Get Over A Breakup and Get Your Ex Back (Based on Science) [Revised Edition]

I know you are going through hell right now. You are sad, confused, angry, depressed, and sometimes numb. You go from sad to angry then to numb. Or you are just sad all the time or even just angry all the time. I am here to tell you that whatever emotions you are going through is normal. It is totally normal to feel these painful emotions and even be confused by them. You don't go from grief to anger, you switch around a lot. Your emotions are basically all over the place. Guilt, shame, disappointment, and hopelessness are quite common too. You might be also experiencing panic and anxiety attacks, heartache (literally), episodes of depression, headaches, stomach problems, loss of appetite, insomnia. You can't stop thinking about your Ex and what they have done to you.
To make matters worse, our friends and family aren't being the most helpful. At first, maybe they were supportive. And then later they just started being dismissive to our feelings by saying things like "Just move on already" or "There is a lot of fish in the sea". This causes us to feel like there is something wrong with us, that we should have moved on already. This notion makes us blame ourselves for feeling this pain. I am here to tell you that there is NOTHING wrong with you for feeling this way. There is no RIGHT amount of time to take to "move on" and none of it is your fault.
Heartbreak is universal and has existed for more than thousands if not millions of years of our existence (Fisher, 2017). You can trace poems about broken hearts from the ancient Egyptian pyramids to ancient Inuit cave dwellings. Look at the top 100 songs on the billboards right now, the majority are songs about our broken hearts. Where there is love, there will be heartbreak. Your experience is excruciating, but fortunately not unique. Our species has survived and thrived after getting their hearts smashed into bits for thousands of years. So, YOU can too.
You don't feel like yourself. You don't think you will ever be happy again. Fortunately, you are going to be OKAY. It will take a while but you will get back to who you were before. I promise on our broken-hearted ancestors. I prepared this guide so this process is much easier. This guide also outlines the best way to get your ex back, if you want that. These tips are not in chronological order, you do not need to follow them one after another.
1) Acceptance
Maybe you realized before it happened or maybe the break up got you by surprise. Either way, it’s devastating. You hope this is some nightmare and you will get up and everything will get back to normal. But no, this is your reality right now. The relationship is over. It’s okay to be in shock and denial in the first few weeks but eventually, you will just have to accept it. It will be difficult to accept it, but you have to do it to get to the next healing stage. Accept what happened. Denial will only prolong your suffering.
2) Grieve your loss
Cry your heart out, doesn't matter if you are a guy or a girl. Start your day with a good cry. It lifts a huge burden and you walk lighter throughout the day. Break up music, pictures of your ex, old texts are all good things to use to start bawling if you are having trouble crying. Angry? Punch a pillow, yell into the pillow! Do whatever it takes to get your anger out, as long as it's not harming anyone else. This grief will come in waves. Some days you might not feel it as much, but some days it hits you hard. That is normal. So cry! Process your emotions, don't hold it in. Holding it in will compound it and it will come out in different ways. There is no timeline for you to process grief. Don't let anybody tell you "In 6 months you will stop crying". Your healing process is YOUR healing process. Take however long. It might also hit you unexpectedly, a year into the healing journey when you think you are doing great then you hear a song you both liked and boom. You are hit with sadness. It does diminish over time so, be patient. The intensity and frequency of "grief attacks" and "anger attacks" lessen over time.
Sometimes we are disappointed not because they left but because they did not fulfill our expectations. Such as getting married to us, having our babies, etc. These dreams can be fulfilled by somebody else. You are not sad because they were the one, you are sad because you THOUGHT they were.
3) Understanding what is going on in your head right now
Humans are social animals. Our survival depended on our ability to forge relationships with others (Buss, 2019). Hence, our brain evolved to instill mechanisms that would help us keep these relationships. So when a prehistoric bear tried to kidnap your mate, you would enter fight or flight mode which would make you jump into action and do everything to save them. As you heard the cries of your mate, your cortisol would shoot through the roof, adrenaline and norepinephrine would pump into your body which helps you to run faster, fight harder and feel less pain. These chemicals motivate you to take massive action. You might scream at the bear while chucking rocks at his head or run back to the village super fast and call for backup. Were they always successful in warding the bear off? Nope, but they were successful enough to pass this evolutionary advantageous trait to us since our ancestors who did not possess this trait died off. Therefore it would make sense if you have an eerily similar reaction if some random guy in a trench coat tried to kidnap your little brother. Unfortunately, for people going through a breakup, this mechanism gets triggered since a relationship is potentially ending and our brain is freaking the fuck out. This mechanism might make us call them a 100 times, scream at them, make big romantic gestures, hold on to their leg while they are trying to walk away (metaphorically or even LITERALLY). We try reasoning with them, we try everything to get them back to calm our head but it doesn't work. (Will get into why it doesn't work later on). Even if it does work, it does not last long. This fight or flight response persists because we failed to keep our relationship. Our body is riddled with agonizing anxiety all day because those stress chemicals I mentioned earlier are still doing their magic on your system. This may persist, days or even months. This phase won't last forever. You just need to make sure to not do anything stupid, you know like CALLING THEM A 100 TIMES but even if did do something stupid. Don't be too hard on yourself.
4) Be patient
I know hurts. It's horrible. It is going to be like this for a bit but you will get better eventually. People don't take 2 weeks to 'Get over it'. Be patient, trust the process.
5) Cut off all contact, go No contact (For your own healing)
Don't text them, don't call them, don't snap them, don't like their photos, don't do anything to contact them, don't even try to send a pigeon. If they message or call you, let them know straight up that if they want to try the relationship again they can call or text you. Otherwise, tell them not to contact you under any circumstances. No need to be mean, do it politely. "If you ever want to give another try with our relationship, only then contact me. Otherwise refrain from contacting me. I want some space, thank you." Why are we being so cruel?
Love activates all your happy chemicals. Dopamine, serotonin, oxytocin, endorphin (Zeki, 2007). When the person dumps you, they cut you off all these happy chemicals causing massive withdrawal symptoms. Interestingly people going through a drug withdrawal show the exact same symptoms (Fisher, 2017). Why? Because love is the ultimate drug and you are addicted.
Your brain is addicted to your ex. To cure this addiction you have to go cold turkey. Will it be dreadful? YES. Is it necessary? Yes. You might think keeping in contact as friends will cushion the blow. In the long term, it will be more painful to be their friend because you will see them moving on without you. Talking to them is like re-opening a wound over and over again.
This is actually the hardest part since you are literally fighting against your basic human instinct I talked about earlier that prevents the loss of a loved one. Your brain is screaming at you "WE NEED TO GET THEM BACK! CALL THEM, TEXT THEM etc". Once we fear we are losing a loved one our brain will try to do everything to get them back. If a bear was running off with them, then it would have helped but in this case, reaching out to them will further push them back. They want some space from you right now.
This includes stalking them on social media, don't do it. It complicates your healing since you are reopening a wound over and over again. Easier said than done though. If you really struggle with this, maybe try to ween off it slowly. Let yourself see their fb twice a week at first, then twice in two weeks etc. Slowly ween off doing it at all. I suggest unfollowing them at least.
Coincidentally, No Contact is the same move to make if you want to win them back. It is a double-edged sword. Whether you want them back or heal your heart OR BOTH. Your best move is to go No Contact.
6) Using No Contact to get them back
You might be wondering that if you do no contact, they might actually forget about you and move on. WRONG! How many times do you think about water a day? Not a lot. Lets just imagine that your house runs out of water, the whole city runs out of water. All you can think about now is water. You are thirsty, you want to take a shower, you want to cook....the lack of water has forced you to think of it. Its the scarcity effect, we long for things that are scarce more than we long for things that are plenty (Cialdini, 2014). Hence, no contact makes your ex think about you way more than they would have if you kept badgering them. You need to be completely out of the picture for them to miss you. They must feel your void.
You might feel that begging them to come back would work, it won't. They have already made the decision to leave you and prepared for you to react like this. You think you can reason with them to take you back. You can't. Because right now they aren't emotionally neutral enough to hear any logical arguments.
Why can't you convince them? Its because they have made a decision already. Humans want to stay consistent with their decisions due to the consistency principle (Cialdini, 2014). The decision to break up is not made logically, its made emotionally, hence using logic to reason with them is useless.
Hence, you can't change their mind right now. The only person that can change their minds is themselves. You help them do that by going No Contact.
Show yourself that you respect yourself enough to NOT chase after someone who left you. Neediness is unattractive, show your ex that you don't need them. Here are more reasons to not chase them.
- When they broke up with you, they expected you to still be in the sidelines as a friend or something. So they don't have to fear losing you. Well, don't give them what they expect, leave the situation. Vanish out of her life completely. So they start actually fearing that they might lose you. Fear of loss is a great motivation for action in humans since we are loss averse (Kahneman, 2011). This will make it more likely they will want to get back with you.
- You not being in their loop anymore, causes them to get curious about you. After curiosity comes attraction. When their attraction towards you has reached a level, they will contact you.
- They actually start respecting you since they assumed you were going to beg and plead. Respect is essential for attraction.
- Over time, they will forget all the negative things about you and the situation that made them break up with you. Negative memories lose their intensity faster than positive ones. As more time passes, you will look better due to the faded affect bias (Gibbons, 2011)
7) How to actually do "No contact"
When my ex broke up with me I could not believe what was happening. This was the closest thing to hell I have ever experienced. I have been hit hard by life many times. But this punch, it nearly killed me. Nothing could ever prepare me for this. It was absolute agony. I would go to sleep and start dreaming about being together with her. I would wake up and realize the reality of the situation and start bawling like a mad man (thats a positive though, you should cry it out). All my dreams I had with her were all shattered. I didn't know what to do. The life I planned with her is nothing but a sad memory now. I started researching and went down the rabbit hole of "Win your ex back". I found out about the no contact policy and started doing it.
The first seven days were brutal. The only thing I told myself was "Just survive the first 7 days". Every inch of my body wanted to reach out to her. To beg her to come back. I knew it wouldn't work. So through sheer will and determination, I didn't reach out to her. As I explained before, my brain was in fight or flight. I was also suffering from withdrawal symptoms of love. I just told myself, "Survive 7 days". That is all I did. I survived 7 days at a time. Maybe you can only survive 1 day at a time. Do that! Tell yourself that "Okay okay, I will contact them in a month". Then when a month rolls by "Okay, next month I will contact her". Then when the next month rolls by tell yourself "Okay, I will contact her in the next 3 months". The trick is to lie to yourself that you will contact them eventually but you never will. (That includes not contacting them on birthdays, holidays, valentine's day, death of a loved one etc). People that join the '12 steps program', are not told to NEVER drink again. That is putting the goal post way out of your reach. The addicts are instructed to NOT drink one day at a time, then a week, then a month, then a year, and then finally for a lifetime.
Another trick I used was to believe that if I did contact them. I would push them farther back and lose them forever. Which is true, breaking no contact will lower your chances of getting them back.
Another trick I used was the progress meter. For every month I took a piece of A4 size paper and drew 30 squares (Each square represents a day). I hung it on my bedroom wall. After each day was over I would put a tick mark on one of the 30 boxes. The tick mark is meant to signify that I have finished another day while following no contact. Once you complete 7 days, it looks really nice, like you have completed a streak. Keeping your streak can be a huge motivator for not breaking no contact (Clear, 2018). It gives you a sense of accomplishment and keeps you on track, you will think twice before breaking your streak. After you tick marked all 30 days, take yourself out for a date, and treat yourself. Then hang up another A4 size paper and keep repeating the process. One day you will tell yourself, "I really don't care anymore to tick mark a box for not contacting my ex", that's the day you can stop. You will stop when you become completely indifferent. The opposite of love isn't hate, its indifference.
This will no doubt be the hardest thing you have ever done. You are fighting against your basic human instincts (to connect and reunite) that has been instilled into us since the beginning of time.. You are fighting the neurological mechanism that was set in place to KEEP your loved ones. Hence, the difficulty.
Bonus trick to keep doing no contact (Might not be the healthiest way, but it works). Use only if you are really struggling with no contact. You need to get into the devil mindset.
Realize they have stabbed you through the heart. You are in pain because of them. Time for you to strike back. The best way for them to feel the pain and consequences of losing you is to keep NOT contacting them. Put them in a state of doubt about their decision by not reaching out to them. Let them feel the pain. Remember, if you break no contact. You will stop their pain but we don't want that, do we? In the first few months, they will be fine but slowly they will start feeling the hurt. Is this mindset petty? Yes. But it is way better than contacting them and ruining the chances of healing and/or getting them back. Your last words before starting no-contact should be kind, not anything mean. If you insult or demean them, you will come off as immature and petty. Making them less doubtful about their decision.
For true healing, your no-contact needs to come from a healthier place. After a period, abandon this "devil mindset", see your ex with compassionate curiosity and forgive them. The last thing they wanted to do was to hurt you but there was no other way.
8) Why you should reject their offer of friendship
Sometimes the dumper doesn't want to be so cruel so they try to be your friend. To reduce their guilt and reduce their pain of losing you. Don't give them that. Let them feel the pain of losing you. If you want them back or if you want to move on, the best way is to let them go. They need to miss you, to want you again. The dumper has all the power in this breakup, since they are rejecting you. Take back a little of that power by rejecting their offer of friendship. Do you really want to see them dating new people and asking for your advice? You might think that if you are around her she won't move on and she will realize what an amazing person you are and get back with you. WRONG! What ends up happening is they start categorizing you as a friend rather than a romantic interest. Let's avoid that. You need to let them know that if they want to get back into your life. They can only get back as a romantic interest. Nothing less, nothing more.
9) Stop trying to find the "Real" reason for the breakup
You are going through every conversation you had with her. You are analyzing her texts, you are asking your friends "Could she have left because I didn't share my custard with her on our 12th date ?" You feel like you are Sherlock Holmes, figuring out clues that will lead you to the "real" reason. In reality, they don't even know why they broke up with you. They have an idea of why, but the reason is more emotional than logical so they can't give you a really good reason. I get it, you want closure. The only person that can give you closure is you! Think, think hard why they left you. Write it down on a piece of paper and just learn to accept it. General incompatibility? Poor communication? Lack of time spent? Circumstance? Mental health issues? What do YOU think the reason was? What does your heart tell you? Mystery solved. Remember, if you do reach out to them and try to get closure, no matter what they tell you. It will never be enough.
10) Don't blame yourself
We tend to blame ourselves and our imperfections for the breakup. This person didn't just reject you, they rejected you after knowing you inside out. That is why it hurts so much. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with you! Yes, you aren't perfect. You have your flaws. You deserve someone that stays with you regardless of your flaws, not someone who refuses to work on them with you. Sometimes people break up because of the circumstances. It has nothing to do with you. It might just be a bad time and place. All that being said, you deserve someone that makes every excuse to be with you. Not someone who makes every excuse to NOT be with you. Life is hard and complicated, relationships aren't ideal all the time. It's easy to stay in a relationship during the good times, but hard to stay in it in the bad times. The bad times are the times that show you if the other person is worth it or not.
11) Don't idealize your Ex and put them on a pedestal
Drug addicts in withdrawal often highlight only the positives of the drug they were addicted to (Winch, 2018). They conveniently forget how that drug turned their life upside down. People who got dumped do that too. I am not saying your ex turned your life upside down but they weren't perfect. Write down their flaws and things that annoyed you on a piece of paper. Write down what may have attracted you to them but later made you feel like shit. For example, you might have liked the fact they were dominant, but later on it just felt like they were very controlling. When you think about her again, focus on her flaws.
Them dumping you might intensify your feelings towards them. This feeling is not based entirely on love, it's based on adversity. Scientists made a monkey expect treats at a certain time. When they stopped giving them the treat to study its effect on dopamine in their brain. The monkeys thrashed around in fury. Nothing odd about that, but the odd thing was the monkey's brain produced more dopamine when the monkey did NOT get the treat. This extra dopamine meant that the monkey's want for the treat increased when he did not get his treat that he expected. This is called Frustration Attraction (Fisher). We long for things way more when we expect it but don't get it. You expected your ex to be in your life, them not being there anymore made you want them even more. Your love did not increase. This is frustration attraction in play. Don't confuse this with genuine attraction.
12) Don't change your life to avoid pain
Don't avoid the restaurants you used to go to. Don't avoid the activities you used to do together. Yes, when you go to the restaurant you used to go to together might be painful at first. But after a few times, you bring your friends there or even a new date there. Your brain starts creating new memories with that restaurant and the new memories override the old memories and you feel much better. Sure, it was where you and your ex used to have tea but now its where you and your friends spill the tea. You guys used to do yoga together? Try doing it alone or with someone else. Obviously don't resume activities just after the breakup but eventually get to that point.
13) Get rid of the reminders of them
Your ex already occupies your mind a lot. let's not let them haunt you physically too. If they have given you gifts, love letters, old pictures of them etc. We need to remove them. Yes, for the time being at least. Keep them in a box and shove it down a room or place you don't go to. *However these old mementos are very useful to induce crying. I used my ex's love letter to cry my heart out, I read it over and over. Then one day it wasn't really helping me cry, so I decided to get rid of it. Yes, I burned it. It felt pretty awesome and cathartic. So do get rid of these old mementos eventually, no rush. Holding onto vivid reminders of them does not let your wound heal properly. Getting rid of them signals your brain to let go. Its a short term sacrifice for a long term gain. A lot of people report an immediate boost in mood after they purged the physical reminders (Winch, 2018). This also includes their photos on your phone. YES, even the nudes. Let it go.
14) Be compassionate to yourself
Develop a non-judgmental inner voice that is actually kind to you. Instead of beating yourself up with insults, talk to yourself kinder. If you have a thought like "I can't even open a ketchup bottle easily, I am such a dumbass...no wonder she left me", counter this thought with "I am only human and these ketchup bottles are really complex these days, I am not a dumbass.". Respond to the mistakes you make with compassion. Write down all the bad things you say to yourself in a day and look at it. Think about it. Would you ever tell a good friend these things? No. Then don't tell them to yourself.
15) Fill the void with Self Improvement
Now you feel like there is a huge void in your life. Your ex might have been a big part of your life. Fill that void up by adopting a new hobby, learning a new skill, or any passion of yours you wanted to always try but didn't have the time to. Don't fret if you don't have a hobby or a new skill to learn. The journey to finding these things is an awesome adventure on its own. It took me a long while to realize that I really love human psychology and self-improvement books. Read! READ! Increase your knowledge and unlock your full potential. Commit yourself to become a better person. So you don't make the same mistakes you did in your last relationship. Life is about growth but that can't happen without failure. A child doesn't learn how to walk without falling a hundred times first. I will have a recommended book list at the end of the article.
16) Don't "Get busy" to avoid thinking about them
All you are doing is delaying your pain by distracting yourself from thinking about them. Let the thoughts about them come. If you can't cry. Close your eyes and focus on the pain. Be with the body, don't judge the pain. Just notice it. Keep noticing it, till it goes away. That is how you process your pain to go through you and not get buried.
17) Battle the obsession of your ex with mindful meditation
Every waking moment of your day is filled by ruminating about your ex. You will think about them 24/7 for a while. No need to panic. It's totally normal. One thing that can help you do this less is mindful meditation. Mindful meditation is linked to a million other benefits for your physical and mental health, so it's a no brainer (Cho, 2016). You also need to understand that it takes a while for you to get the hang of it. Try using the headspace app's trial feature to learn how to do it.
18) Talk to a professional (therapist)
A break up is a tumultuous time for anyone. Hence seeking professional help isn't the worst idea. When someone breaks up with us, we don't just grieve for our ex. We start grieving for every attachment trauma we ever endured in our lives. Grief is like picking up a paper clip that is connected to other paper clips. You can't grief for your ex alone, you will unconsciously end up grieving about all your attachment trauma. A good therapist can help you through that process.
19) Rely on all your social support systems
Feeling sad? Reach out to friends and family to vent. Sometimes just straight up tell them that you just want to vent and don't want their advice. Your loved ones are here for you to utilize them. But do give them breaks from venting here and there. They are human and they sometimes can get tired of your break up story.
20) Rebuild your identity
When we are in a relationship we tend to merge our identities with our other half. That is why we feel so lost when they leave us. We are so used to having them as our "better" half's that we forget who we were when we never met them in the first place. Maybe you gave up a hobby or activity when you were dating them to have more time with them. Now is the best time to reclaim that part of yourself that you lost when you guys were dating. It is also the best time to figure out who you are and what you truly want. If you always wanted to travel and live in some country for a few months but you couldn't because you were in a committed relationship, now is the perfect opportunity to do so. You aren't tethered by anyone, fly free.
21) Get some physical exercise
Well, the first few months of the breakup I guess its okay if you don't work out at all since you might be too depressed to get out of bed or have any motivation to do anything (I couldn't get up for two months, some other people were fine after a week. So heal in your own time, again there is no timeline to grieve). But eventually, I want you to start exercising regularly to pump your brain with all those feel-good chemicals. 15 to 30 min a day is a good start, hell even just 5 min is great. You can try yoga too if working out isn't your thing. Becoming a bit sexier in the process is a pretty good bonus too.
22) Write letters to them but don't actually send it to them
Write however many letters you want. Write whatever you want to write. Whatever you ever wanted to say to them. Go ahead and say it in the letter. Pour your heart out, leave nothing unsaid. I personally used tape recorders rather than letters. I got too lazy and used the voice recorder on my phone to have a "pretend" one-sided conversation. It felt really good afterward. It cleared my head and gave me a bit of closure. But eventually, burn these letters and delete these recordings by also "Thanking them and forgiving them" in your own words. Every time you burn a letter, thank them and forgive them. You don't need to hold this grudge your whole life, it's not good for you. Forgiving is not for them, its for your own healing. No matter what they did, you have to be able to forgive them eventually. In your own time! There is no time limit. Remember to forgive yourself too for the mistakes you might have made, you are only human after all.
23) Start Journaling
At the end of everyday write or (record your feelings). It helps you process your feelings better. Write about how you feel. Are you feeling sad? Angry? Confused? Putting them down on paper takes a bit of the emotional intensity off you. The first few months you should journal every day but as time goes on, decrease your frequency. After a 3 or 6 month period read your early journal entries and compare them to your most recent journal entries and you will notice how much better you are doing, which will give you a much-needed boost to healing.
24) Start a gratitude journal
Yes, I bet you heard that a million times already. It does increase your happiness quotient (Connor, 2010). Make a habit of listing three things you are grateful for before you go to sleep. When you say these things actually feel it and let the joy of that thing warm you up. It could be as little thing as the dinner you had that day or it could be something really special such as being grateful for your parents.
25) Set ambitious new goals for your life
Is there something you always wanted to do or be? Set your horizons on it and start chasing your new hopes and dreams.
26) Start Dating again
You would eventually want to start dating again. Have fun with your single life. Have some exciting romantic encounters with some girl on vacation. Flirt with that handsome guy at the bar. Have fun, enjoy yourself. Take it slow and be wary of any early red flags. Trust your gut. Maybe you knew your ex was an alcoholic but still went out with him. Don't make the same mistakes you made last time. But if you want to stay single for a while, that is okay too. Do you, there is no right or wrong here. Think of dating as a source of possible romantic interests, it keeps the pressure off you.
27) Antidote to Suffering
In my lowest moments after the breakup. I had symptoms of clinical depression. I couldn't get out of bed. All I would do is sleep. Some days I would lie in my bed awake riddled with agonizing anxiety. To make things worse my obsessive-compulsive disorder was acting up too. I simply did not have the energy to manage it anymore as I used to. I gave up my will to live a couple of times. I stopped eating and drinking. I just couldn't take it anymore. I wanted to die but I didn't have the energy to commit suicide so I thought it be best to die starving in my bed. Waking up was a pain, going through my days were a pain. One morning a thought occurred to me that gave me the will to live again "I have to save others from this pain and suffering, I can't do that if I am dead. I am going to become the world's greatest therapist and help people with OCD and breakups, I have to live!" From that moment on, I started getting up and eating and drinking water more regularly and then going back to bed to sleep all day. Slowly but surely, I would sleep less on the day and get more things done. I didn't get this thought because I am some Mother Theresa or anything. It was for selfish reasons. I needed a reason to live. I needed meaning for my suffering to survive and withstand it.
The antidote to suffering is finding meaning in it. This is not my wisdom. Its what I learned reading Viktor Frankl's Man's search for meaning. "A man who has a why can endure any how", this famous quote of Nietzsche gives more support to this idea. The meaning of your life must be more specific though. You have to have a meaning and purpose that nobody else other than you can fulfill. You can't just say "I want to help people", sure that is noble but it's not specific enough. You want to help people? But how? There are millions of ways to help people, what's the way you would like to help them? Which way would let you help them the best? My purpose and meaning are helping people with a very specific kind of OCD. Its called Purely obsessional OCD, this ocd has no physical compulsions, only mental ones. A lot of therapists and psychiatrists don't know how to address it properly. I want to change that. I also want to help people going through breakups. Especially dumpees who are anxiously attached. Breakups are extra hard on these types of people. To achieve this goal I am happy to suffer. I will keep on going regardless of how bad and hard it gets.
Find the meaning of your suffering. Do you want to create amazing art that will make people think deeply? Do you want to direct a documentary exposing a problem? Do you just want to make old people at the nursery home smile more? It can be whatever you want it to. Ask yourself, if you would gladly suffer for this purpose? If the answer is 'No', don't pursue that. The agony you are experiencing currently will be more bearable after you start taking steps to find and pursue your meaning.
However, you might be in the team who thinks everything is inherently meaningless. Nothing really matters. There is no meaning in life. There is no meaning in our suffering. All the pain and agony our ancestors went through to build the foundation of this world is meaningless. All the people that suffered without surrendering their morals in the holocaust were wasting their time. All the people that refused to turn in their friends in the face of brutal torture in the gulags made a stupid choice.
All the people that died for a better world wasted their lives because it doesn't mean anything. How about all the people that sacrificed their happiness for the good of humanity? Were their lives meaningless? The only reason we still exist is because of the sacrifices that were made by our ancestors through blood, sweat, and a lot of tears. We are only standing because we are standing on their corpses. Billions of billions of corpses. Is it all meaningless? Are their lives and deaths meaningless? NO! They weren't. It is us, the living that must give their suffering meaning! After we are dead, our future generations will look back to us for their meaning. Therefore I think it is our responsibility to pursue meaning to respect our ancestor's sacrifice. If we don't, it will deem all their suffering meaningless!
A prisoner in Auschwitz was told to get into the gas chamber. At that time it was just a rumor that people died in the showers. Most of the victims didn't know or didn't want to believe that it was true. But somehow this man knew what fate awaited him. He smuggled a piece of paper and wrote "Shema Yisrael" (it's traditional for Jewish people to say this as last words) and stuffed it in his shirt, then he undressed. He walked into the chamber upright and with dignity and before the gas was released his last words were also probably "Shema Yisrael". In this context Shema means "listen", Yisrael means "people (or congregation of Israel)". Its a prayer in Judaism. It's traditional for Jewish people to say this as their last words. But why did this man have to write it in a piece of paper? Couldn't he just have said "Shema Yisrael" before he died? Why did he need to go through all the trouble to smuggle a piece of paper and use his own blood to write this?
He was trying to send a message to humanity as a whole. He was trying to talk to the people that survived. He was trying to talk to us. He was trying to say "Listen people, do you see me? I have been through a lot here. But it didn't ruin my faith in god. Don't lose faith. Don't lose hope. Suffer with dignity." This is how I interpreted it to fit my own narrative. You can do the same. Every time I reach a very low spot mental health-wise and I don't think I can take it anymore. I say to myself, "Shema Yisrael" and remember this man and his message. After I say these words I immediately feel better. It doesn't lower my pain, it increases my ability to withstand it. He found meaning in his death by sending this message to us. I took his message and used it to handle my pain. I am writing this article because of my own pain, if this article helps you. You give meaning to all the pain I been through. Thank you for giving my pain meaning. I hope this breakup teaches you things that you can pass on to someone else so they give meaning to your suffering.
Loved this post? Give my podcast a listen. I go into more depth, share more advice and interesting personal stories. (Its FREE!)
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7zJEZ8VG2Bdz2gDfRY7x61
Anchor: https://anchor.fm/harry-house3/episodes/Brokenheartclub-Episode-1-How-to-recover-from-your-breakup-Everything-you-need-to-know-e5bglu
Itunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/broken-heart-club-podcast/id1479810240
Youtube: https://youtu.be/BAm58NkS1Ck
Inspiration for this paragraph
- Man's Search for Meaning by Victor Frankl
- The Gulag of Archipelago by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
- The Story Of Civilization by Will and Ariel Durant
- Attack on Titans season 3 episode 16 "Erwin's Speech"
*I will also make individual posts about all the points I made here in the coming weeks.
Book Recommendations:
- How to Win friends and Influence people by Dale Carnegie
- Atomic Habits by James Clear
- Can't Hurt Me by David Goggins
- 12 Rules for life by Jordan Peterson
- Subtle art of not giving a fuck by Mark Manson
Sources:
Buss, D. M. (2019). Evolutionary psychology: the new science of the mind. New York: Routledge.Cho, J. (2016, July 14).
6 Scientifically Proven Benefits Of Mindfulness And Meditation. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeenacho/2016/07/14/10-scientifically-proven-benefits-of-mindfulness-and-meditation/#664308da63ce
Cialdini, R. B. (2014). Influence: science and practice. Harlow, Essex: Pearson.
Clear, J. (2018). Atomic habits: tiny changes. New York: Avery, an imprint of Penguin Random House.
OConnor, R. (2010). Happy at last. New York: St. Martins Griffin.
Winch, G. (2018). How to Fix a Broken Heart. Simon & Schuster.
Zeki, S.(2007), The neurobiology of love, FEBS Letters, 581, doi: 10.1016/j.febslet.2007.03.094
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
Gibbons, J. A., Lee, S. A. and Walker, W. R. (2011), The fading affect bias begins within 12 hours and persists for 3 months. Appl. Cognit. Psychol., 25: 663-672. doi:10.1002/acp.1738
Fisher, H. E. (2017). Anatomy of love.New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
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Will the Green Bay Packers win OVER/UNDER 9 games? By University Stats Prof!

1. Introduction

Matt LaFleur’s first season as Green Bay’s head coach has to be considered a success. He led the team to a 13-3 record, which secured the NFC North title.

The Packers held off the Seahawks to a 28-23 home win in the first round of the playoffs, but were ousted by the Niners in a brutal 37-20 thumping (a game in which the Packers dugged themselves into an early 27-0 hole).

2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)

Aaron Rodgers will be entering his 16th NFL season. He had another excellent year with a 26-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and over 4,000 passing yards. He finished as the 7th-best QB in the league according to PFF ratings.

At 36 years old, he is likely to have a few good years left. After all, Drew Brees and Tom Brady posted nice statistics in their late thirties.

Rodgers has been very durable throughout his career, but he’s not invincible either. Tim Boyle was the backup plan last year, and the team needed to upgrade the position while starting to think about the post-Rodgers era.

Still, drafting Jordan Love was the most questionable and talked-about pick in this year’s draft. People expected the Packers to go with a veteran backup QB. Rodgers has mentioned several times he wants to play in his forties; he can still offer a good five years of solid play in the frozen tundra.

Love has possesses great size, throws with velocity and he’s very mobile. The main knock on him is the decision-making and inconsistency.

As a sophomore, he threw 32 TD passes versus 6 interceptions. He regressed a lot last year by posting a mediocre 20:17 TD:INT mark. Granted, his surrounding cast was very weak and he had to go through a coaching change.

Love can throw from many different arm angles; he reminds people of Patrick Mahomes in this regard. He can throw a fastball or a soft touch pass.

Quick note: he almost quit football when he was 14 years old after his dad committed suicide. However, he knew his dad would want him to keep playing, so he did just that.

2.2 Running Backs (RBs)

Aaron Jones is a top running back in this league. Along with Jamaal Williams, they form a lethal duo.

Including the playoffs, Jones ended up scoring 23 touchdowns in 18 games. His 19 regular season scores were the second most in Packers history. His numbers have increased in each of his first three years as a pro. He is also excellent as a pass catcher.

Despite playing in the shadow of Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams still finished as the 17th-best RB based on PFF rankings. He does not seem like a lead back, but he’s a perfect change-of-pace guy. Much like Jones, he can do some damage as a receiver as well.

Williams has been a steady performer thus far in his career. He has rushed for 450-550 yards in each of his three seasons, while catching a minimum of 25 balls. He has 15 total TDs over this three-year span.

If you thought GM Brian Gutekunst made a strange move by drafting QB Jordan Love in the first round, he doubled down with another head scratcher in the 2nd round when he took A.J. Dillon.

Message to Mr. Gutekunst: Aaron Rodgers needed pass catchers, not a third running back! I really don’t get this pick either. I’m not saying Dillon won’t be good in the NFL; only time will tell. However, it clearly wasn’t a position of need for the Packers.

Dillon is a power back who rarely breaks off huge runs. He racked up big numbers in three seasons in Boston College. He’s unlikely to become a three-down starter, especially since he’s not a good pass catcher. He will likely be used sporadically as a rookie.

2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)

Davante Adams is one of the best at his position. He had a streak of three straight seasons with at least 10 TD receptions snapped last year, but he still caught 83 passes for 997 yards in 12 games (he missed four games because of a toe injury).

Outside of Adams, all pass catchers appeared lost on the field. None of them developed a good chemistry with Rodgers.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling was a huge disappointment last year. He showed promise as a rookie with over 500 receiving yards. Here’s a jaw-dropping statistic: after Week #7, MVS did not get more than 19 receiving yards in any meeting. That’s awful.

One of the guys benefiting from Valdes-Scantling’s poor play was Jake Kumerow. He got more playing time than expected, but still only caught 12 passes. He is closing in on 30 years of age and is limited as an athlete, so he’s not a long-term answer for sure.

Allen Lazard was also thrown into action far more than expected. He finished second in terms of receiving yards for Green Bay, but let’s face the reality: the undrafted guy remains more of a #3 or #4 WR for any team.

Geronimo Allison was another bust last year. His top performance over the last 12 games (including the playoffs) was a meager 33 receiving yards. He left for another NFC North team, the Detroit Lions.

In other words, the #2 role is wide open. The team hopes newly acquired Devin Funchess can step into that role. The former second rounder had his best season in 2017 with the Panthers with a 63-840-8 stat line. He signed with the Colts last year, but played just one game before breaking a collarbone. He will be 26 years old this season and provides an interesting prospect for the Packers.

2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)

We’re not done talking about 2019 busts. Jimmy Graham was one of them. He clearly looks washed. He received the lowest grades of his 10-year career, and deservedly so. The Packers released him and he signed a few days later with the Bears (a horrible mind-boggling two-year, $16 million contract).

Marcedes Lewis received surprisingly good marks from PFF. If you look into the numbers, the good grade occurred mainly because of efficient run and pass blocking. He’s not much of a pass catcher and he will be 36 years old when the season begins.

Robert Tonyan will also be in the mix, but the guy that has the best chance to break out as a receiver in 2020 only caught three passes last year (all in the playoffs): Jace Sternberger. Taken in the third round of the 2019 draft, Sternberger was a threat at Texas A&M in college. He missed most of the regular season because of injuries, but the door is wide open with Graham’s departure.

We might also see third-round rookie Josiah Deguara. He has a great motor and plays extremely hard. He’s undersized as a tight end, though.

2.5 Offensive Line (OL)

The Packers had a pretty solid offensive line in 2019. All five starters managed to play at least 84% of the offensive snaps. And they all finished above-average according to PFF ratings!

The bad news, however, is the Bryan Bulaga left for the Chargers. Despite turning over 30 years old, he still played at a high level.

The Packers decided to replace him by signing Rick Wagner, formerly of the Lions. Wagner’s PFF grades from 2016 to 2018 were as follows: 74.0, 75.2 and 71.4. Last year, his play deteriorated a lot and he was tagged with a 59.0 grade. He finished as the #61 tackle among 81 guys.

I like the fact that the team is returning four out of five guys, but replacing Bulaga with Wagner has to be viewed as a downgrade.

2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE

The Packers offense finished in the middle of the pack in points scored per game. Barring major injuries, I expect about the same production in 2020.

The QB and RB situations remain the same.

Adding Funchess is not a huge move, but it won’t hurt. The team clearly needs someone to step up opposite of Davante Adams. At tight end, losing Jimmy Graham means close to nothing since he was so ineffective. Sternberger might bring a nice contribution, but we can hardly expect him to be a game-breaker.

Finally, the OL will take a dip with the loss of Bulaga. I don’t believe Rick Wagner can do better than him.

All in all, I view the additions/departures as a slight negative for Green Bay, but having so many starters returning to the lineup for a second straight season is always a good thing in the NFL. For these reasons, I expect a similar output as 2019 from this unit.

Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable

3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)

Kenny Clark had a fantastic season! He is one of the best interior rushers in the NFL. He recorded six sacks for the second straight year, and PFF ranked him as the 13th-best interior linemen out of 114 qualifiers.

The same nice comments cannot be made about Dean Lowry. He had the worst season of his four-year career as a pro. He did not post a single sack and wasn’t great against the run either.

Reserve Tyler Lancaster is only there to provide some depth. He isn’t particularly good in any aspect of the game.

The team did not make any move regarding this position during the offseason.

3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)

During the last offseason, the Packers acquired two Smiths: Za’Darius and Preston. They burst onto the scene and got 13.5 and 12 sacks, respectively.

Obviously, both received high marks for their pass rushing abilities, but Preston finished as an average linebacker overall because of mediocre run defense and poor coverage.

Kyler Fackrell was a huge disappointment in 2019. After racking up 10.5 sacks in 2018, he only got one in 2019! He signed a one-year deal with the Giants.

First-round pick Rashan Gary wasn’t necessarily impressive during his rookie season. He played 23% of the snaps, while obtaining two sacks but very pedestrian marks from PFF (an overall 55.8 grade, which is near the bottom among edge defenders).

3.3 Linebackers (LBs)

Green Bay lost its leader in tackles from the past three years, Blake Martinez. After starting 61 of the last 64 Packers games, Martinez decided to join the New York Giants. He had the second-most tackles in the league last year, but don’t be misled by that number. Martinez still finished slight below-average (52nd out of 89 LBs) because of poor play against the run.

The Packers also lost some depth at the position when B.J. Goodson left for Cleveland.

Green Bay picked up a linebacker from the Browns roster: Christian Kirksey. He was picked in the 3rd round of the 2014 before being involved in all 16 games from his first four seasons in the NFL. However, he has been plagued with injuries over the most recent two years; he played 7 games in 2018 and only 2 games in 2019.

He is also capable of racking up tackles, as shown by his 2016 and 2017 seasons where he obtained 146 and 138. His PFF grades during his first four seasons varied between 61.9 and 69.3. Just to give you a rough idea, a 65.0 rating would have been good for 29th place out of 89 LBs.

3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)

Jaire Alexander has done the job as the #1 corner. He has obtained 72.4 and 71.2 marks from PFF during his first two seasons, which is well-above average. He’s so-so defending the run, but his coverage skills are very good.

The number two corner, Kevin King had five interceptions last year after getting just one over his first two years as a pro. He did show some improvement after two rocky years. He finished 2019 as a middle-of-the-pack corner.

Tramon Williams played 74% of the snaps and had a surprisingly good season despite his age. He will be 37 when the 2020 season begins. He is currently a free agent and it remains to be seen if the Packers bring him back or not.

In summary, Alexander and King are both pretty young and could still be improving, but Tramon Williams provided quality play and it’s uncertain if someone else can pick up the slack.

3.5 Safeties (S)

Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage were the top two guys here.

Along with Za’Darius and Preston Smith, the Adrian Amos was another excellent signing by the Packers during the 2019 offseason. Amos had been a reliable guy in Chicago for four seasons, and he continued to excel in the frozen tundra.

After being selected as the #21 overall pick in the 2019 draft, Darnell Savage did show some flashes as a rookie last year. He finished as the #47 safety among 87 qualifiers, which is very satisfying for a rookie. He earned nice marks in coverage (77.4), but horrible ones against the run (37.7).

Will Redmond will be back as the number three safety. He’s not starter material for sure.

2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE

Most of the starters are returning in 2020. That’s the good news.

The team lost their leader in tackles, Blake Martinez, as well as pass rusher Kyler Fackrell and CB Tramon Williams.

The only acquisition worth of note is Christian Kirksey. Him not having played very much during the last two seasons brings some question marks.

The Packers defense struggled against the run last year, and there’s no reason to believe that will change in 2020. Green Bay still finished 9th in points allowed, which was a very acceptable result.

Unfortunately, a decrease in effectiveness is expected and I predict this unit will end 2020 as a middle-of-pack defense (12th – 19th in points allowed).

Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade

4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Green Bay Packers are expected to win 9 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?

Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:

Here are the results (excluding the simulated years where the Pack won exactly 9 games, since in those cases your bet would have tied):

Estimated Probability Sportsbook Odds ROI
OVER 9 WINS 51.4% bwin +115 +10.5%
UNDER 9 WINS 48.6% Heritage Sports +100 -2.8%
Tip: Bet OVER 9 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +10.5%
Rank: 25th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -106

Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Packers’ 16 regular season games:
HOME: -6 vs ATL, -10 vs CAR, -4.5 vs CHI, -6.5 vs DET, -11.5 vs JAX, -3 vs MIN, -2.5 vs PHI, -3.5 vs TEN.
ROAD: 0 @ CHI, -2 @ DET, 0 @ HOU, +2.5 @ IND, +3 @ MIN, +5.5 @ NO, +6.5 @ SF, +2.5 @ TB.

Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.

TOMORROW: I'll talk about the team whose ROI is the 24th-highest in the league, the Pittsburgh Steelers!

Did you like this write-up? If so, comment below! I'd like to know YOUR opinion on what to expect from the Packers' 2020 season!

Professor MJ
submitted by David-MJ to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Will the Arizona Cardinals win OVER/UNDER 7 games? 2020 season predictions by University Stats Prof!

1. Introduction

From 2013 to 2015, the Cardinals won at least 10 games in each of those seasons. They followed up with a couple of years where they finished close to a .500 record. Things got even worse in the past two seasons, during which the franchise compiled an 8-23-1 record.
Now in year #2 of head coach Kliff Kingsbury and QB Kyler Murray, it’s time for Arizona to make a leap forward.

2. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Arizona Cardinals are expected to win 7 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:
Here are the results (excluding simulated seasons where they won exactly 7 games, in which case the bet ties):

Estimated prob. Sportsbook Odds ROI
OVER 7 wins 53.1% 10Bet -110 +1.4%
UNDER 7 wins 46.9% William Hill +110 -1.5%

Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.

3. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)

Kyler Murray had a very successful rookie campaign as Arizona’s new franchise quarterback.
Despite a suspect surrounding cast, he posted very respectable numbers with 3,722 passing yards, 20 TDs and 12 interceptions. He was also dangerous as a runner, as shown by his 544 rushing yards.
Murray was the victim of 48 sacks, but he was hard to catch. Indeed, he finished in 2nd place in terms of average time from snap-to-sack among all QBs in the NFL.
Now with one full year of experience under his belt, you can expect Murray to take a nice leap and improve his game even more in 2020.
Brett Hundley will once again back up Murray this season. The Cards must hope they won’t need him because he has never shown he could lead a team to success. The former Packer is clearly no more than a #2 QB in this league.

3.2 Running Backs (RBs)

The Cards got a nice bargain last year by trading a sixth-round pick in exchange for Kenyan Drake. He was nothing short of spectacular in his eight appearances in the desert by racking up 643 rushing yards over eight games. He also scored eight touchdowns during that short period.
During the offseason, the Cards re-signed him to a one-year, $8.5 million contract. The team also traded David Johnson to Houston, which clearly puts Drake as the starter.
Chase Edmonds will be the main backup runner. He showed some flashes with a nice 5.1 yards per rush average. The third-year pro is good insurance in case Drake gets hurt.

3.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)

Kyler Murray probably popped a bottle of champagne when he heard about the acquisition of stud wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins from the Texans.
Losing David Johnson in the trade isn’t that big of a deal for the Cards, who already had good depth at the running back position. However, acquiring a big-time WR like Hopkins is HUGE!
Hopkins has played either 15 or 16 games in each of his first seven years in the NFL. He has averaged 1,229 receiving yards and 7.7 TDs during that time span.
He consistently ranks among the top receivers year in and year out. In 2019, he finished with an 87.8 grade from PFF, which had him ranked as the 5th best WR.
Unbelievable: Larry Fitzgerald is coming back for a 17th season! He did better than expected last season by catching 75 passes and finishing 53rd out of 122 qualified wide receivers in the league based on PFF.
Fitzgerald claimed he loved the culture under new head coach Kliff Kingsbury and he wants to help the team both as a player and as a mentor for the younger guys.
Christian Kirk, a former second-round pick in the 2018 draft, had an okay year. His 62.5 grade by PFF had him ranked as the #91 WR (out of 122). With Hopkins drawing a lot of attention from opposing defenses, Kirk must make a leap in 2020. It remains to be seen if he can do it or not.
Arizona lost some depth at the position after seeing Damiere Byrd leave for New England, while Pharoh Cooper signed with Carolina. It’s not a huge blow to the team, but worth mentioning.

3.4 Tight Ends (TEs)

A young QB like Kyler Murray would certainly welcome some help at the tight end position, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.
The top target last year was Charles Clay. He only caught 18 passes and is now a free agent.
All signs point toward Maxx Williams assuming the number one role. You’ll be surprised to hear he ranked as the 7th best tight end in the league according to PFF. His nice 79.1 grade was obtained via outstanding run and pass blocking.
In summary, the team is pretty thin at this position.

3.5 Offensive Line (OL)

One of the team’s biggest weaknesses in 2019 was certainly its offensive line. They allowed the 5th highest number of sacks a year ago, despite Murray being a mobile quarterback.
The only guy who finished above average based on PFF rankings was Justin Pugh (22nd out of 81 among guards). The other four starters were either average or quite bad.
The bad news? The team has not addressed the position in free agency. They did select Josh Jones in the third round of this year’s draft, though. He has a high chance of becoming the team’s starting right guard right away, despite many experts calling him a developmental project who needs work.
I can’t believe D.J. Humphries is going to be the third-highest paid left tackle in the league after signing a hefty contract this offseason. His paycheck is clearly not in line with his production on the field. In five years, he has played 43 games and missed 37 due to numerous injuries. He finally played through a full 16-game season last year, but he PFF gave him the 47th-best grade out of 81 tackles.

2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE

Overall, I expect a nice progression from this unit. Kyler Murray is clearly more likely to improve than to regress based on his young age. The running back position is set. The receiving corps got a gigantic boost with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins.
The tight end and offensive line positions remain problematic. However, if you compare with last year, it can’t get much worse. Building the line should be one of the top priorities for Arizona in the upcoming years.
Final call (2020 vs 2019):
Big downgrade-Moderate downgrade-Small downgrade-Stable-Small upgrade-Moderate upgrade-Big upgrade

4. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

4.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)

This was not a position of strength for Arizona last year. Out of 114 DLs, here’s the final PFF ranking of the four guys who got the most playing time: Corey Peters 65th, Rodney Gunter 61st, Zach Kerr 42nd and Jonathan Bullard 94th. Ouch.
Now, Gunter and Kerr are both gone. Meanwhile, the team acquired Jordan Phillips from the Bills. He probably won’t be a savior as he finished in 104th place.

4.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)

Chandler Jones had an exceptional years with 19 sacks! Only Shaquil Barrett from the Bucs recorded more sacks.
Outside of Jones, Terrell Suggs played 13 games before being released by the Cards. He still managed to record 5.5 sacks.
Cassius Marsh played 38% of the defensive snaps and finished 70th out of 107 edge defenders. He signed with the Jaguars during the offseason.
In order to compensate for those losses, Arizona signed Devon Kennard, formerly of the Detroit Lions. He played 82% of the snaps in Detroit and finished 44th (out of 107) at the position. He obtained 7 sacks last year (7 more the year before).

4.3 Linebackers (LBs)

Jordan Hicks was a tackling machine with 150; only Bobby Wagner (Seattle) and Blake Martinez (Green Bay) had more in 2019.
However, Hicks didn’t grade particularly well. He finished 43rd out of 89 linebackers.
Haason Reddick and Joe Walker both finished in the bottom: 86th and 79th. Walker left for San Francisco, which is not a big loss.
Arizona signed De’Vondre Campbell who played 89% of the snaps with the Falcons. Can he improve the linebacker play in 2020? I doubt it. His poor 50.1 grade gave him the 70th rank. Here are his grades the previous three seasons: 57.4, 69.1 and 55.7. He is a durable guy, but far from a great player.
DC Vance Joseph declared #8 overall pick Isaiah Simmons would primarily play at linebacker. Simmons was super versatile in college, playing many positions. He will provide good coverage against TEs and pass-catching RBs, while also defending the run efficiently. He clearly has Pro Bowl talent.

4.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)

Patrick Peterson is clearly the leader of this group. He was having a decent season, and was brilliant in the final few games. He finished as the number 39 cornerback out of 112 guys. He missed the first six games of the season because of a suspension.
There is not much depth behind Peterson, though. Byron Murphy played 98% of the snaps, but finished with an awful 48.8 grade. The 2019 second-round pick will need to elevate his game A LOT this season.

4.5 Safeties (S)

Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson provide an adequate duo of safeties. These two guys are still young and we can expect some improvement in 2020. They finished last year as #28 and #57 out of 87 qualified safeties. Baker accumulated 147 tackles, 4th in the NFL.

2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE

No major changes for this unit. Given they’ve allowed the 5th highest number of points last year, that’s not good news.
The lone position where the Cards have improved this offseason is linebacker because of the acquisition of Isaiah Simmons via the draft and De’Vondre Campbell as a free agent from Atlanta.
Or perhaps the couple of young safeties can take a leap? Maybe, maybe not. It may be wishful thinking.
To summarize, the team added Jordan Phillips, Devon Kennard, Isaiah Simmons and De’Vondre Campbell. They lost Rodney Gunter, Zach Kerr, Terrell Suggs, Cassius Marsh and Joe Walker. To me, those changes offset. Perhaps it will turn out to be a small upgrade.
Final call (2020 vs 2019):
Big downgrade-Moderate downgrade-Small downgrade-Stable-Small upgrade-Moderate upgrade-Big upgrade
Thanks for reading!
Professor MJ
submitted by David-MJ to sportsbook [link] [comments]

July 2020 Noteworthy Releases on Switch

I occasionally see people respond to my weekly Upcoming Releases posts with comments like “it's just a buncha' shovelware”, and I don't think people realize the potential in some of the games they're dismissing. And especially with Nintendo stepping back from their regular Nintendo Directs, I think there's likely to be a fair number of Switch players asking themselves, “so now what?”
Because of this, before we jump into the next month, I'm going through the list of upcoming games for that month that we know about, and highlighting the ones that have a strong chance of being worth paying attention to, as well as a brief snippet about the game explaining why it's worth watching.
I will specifically only be highlighting games that have a reasonably strong pedigree, or that are otherwise particularly noteworthy in some way beyond “this looks good, it could be interesting...”. This means that I'll likely be mentioning a lot of ports, as it's easier to know a game will likely be good if it was already good on another platform (I'm including games that scored 75 or higher on Metacritic on other platforms, 80% positive or higher on Steam, and/or 4 or higher rating on Google Play store). I'll also mention games whose developer has a decent track record for producing quality.
Oh, and before getting into the games, I should note that this is just the list we have available right now – there are likely to be new games announced after this list comes out, as well as games on this list that get delayed. Also, I should note that this is not a list of the only games worth getting on the Switch this month – just the ones that I feel can be backed up with more than just “feels” given what we know now. And of course, since these games aren't released yet, I obviously can't know they're good, they just look promising.
Anyway, onto the list!
7/3 - Infini (Trailer) Metacritic score: 62 (With 6 Reviews) – Released earlier this year on PC and PlayStation 4, Infini went mostly overlooked by reviewers, but the small handful of players who rated the game on Steam were unanimous in their praise for the game – as of this writing, it has a 100% approval rating. It's definitely hard to get a feel for the game from the trailer, but it seems to be a sort of bizarre puzzle game.
7/3 – Singled Out (Trailer) (No Metacritic score as of 7/16) – Much like the first game on this list, Singled Out was released last year on PC and went mostly overlooked by reviewers, but once again the small handful of players who rated the game on Steam were unanimous in their praise for the game – as of this writing, it has a 100% approval rating. It's pretty easy to tell what this game will play like – you're spotting the face in the crowd that matches the characteristics before time runs out. So it looks kinda' like one of the Microgrames you'd expect to see in a WarioWare title, expanded into a full game.
7/6 – Gerty (Gameplay Footage) (No Metacritic score as of 7/16) – Yet another game that critics overlooked, but got a high rating on Steam (94%) from the few players who played it. Gerty is a two-stick shooter with Roguelike elements.
7/7 – Catherine: Full Body (Trailer) Metacritic score: 81 (With 23 Reviews) – Catherine has been out on multiple platforms for a while now, with the expanded “Full Body” version hitting PlayStation 4 late last year. However, every version of the game has consistently rated well, in the high-70s and low-80s on Metacritic. This is a character-based puzzle game interspersed with story-based sections that follows a young man who gets entangled in the middle of a love triangle of sorts, and where his less than honest actions result in him having nightmares of a monstrous woman climbing a tower while he struggles to escape her.
7/7 – Superliminal (Trailer) Metacritic score: 82 (With 4 Reviews) – This is a game I missed in my original predictions, but list here for those looking at this article after the fact. This game is a reality-warping first-person perspective puzzle game where the perspective is one of the most important parts of the gameplay, since you use that perspective to change the size of objects.
7/9 – CrossCode (Trailer) Metacritic score: 85 (With 7 Reviews) – First released to PC in 2018 and garnering a strong Metacritic score of 86, the game's console release has been pretty highly anticipated, with CrossCode having the look of a classic 16-bit Action-RPG, but turning up the dial on the “action” side of that formula.
7/9 – Demon's Rise: War for the Deep (Gameplay Footage) (No Metacritic score as of 7/16) – First released to PC and mobile devices in 2018, the game currently sits with an 83% positive rating on Steam and a 4.0 score on Google Play. Demon's Rise is a Turn-Based Strategy set in a Fantasy world, and technically the second game in its series. Judging by fans' reactions, expect this to be a game mostly focused on the tactical gameplay and not graphics or story.
7/10 – Bloodstained: Curse of the Moon 2 (Trailer) Metacritic score: 83 (With 11 Reviews) – While the release of Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night on Switch was problematic, the original Bloodstained: Curse of the Moon was pretty widely accepted as a fantastic old-school platformer in the vein of the classic NES Castlevania titles, getting a Metacritic score of 82. Only just announced, we won't have long to wait to get the follow-up, with the eShop listing for the game putting it at July 10.
7/10 – Deadly Premonition 2: A Blessing in Disguise (Trailer) Metacritic score: 58 (With 49 Reviews) – I'll just say right now, there is a strong argument to be made that this game does not belong on this list. The original game was a broken, buggy mess... but that's partly the reason it is so beloved by so many. Deadly Premonition has been compared to the film The Room in that both have a unique “so bad it's good” quality to them, and I can guarantee you that if I left its Switch-exclusive sequel off of this list, there would be more than a few people who would demand that it be added. So for those people, here you go. And I genuinely hope that it is everything you've been wanting in a sequel.
7/14 – Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Trailer) Metacritic score: 78 (With 37 Reviews) – This game is a full remake of Harvest Moon: Friends of Mineral Town, a 2003 Game Boy Advance game considered by many to be one of the series' highlights. If you enjoyed Stardew Valley, this is absolutely a game to keep your eyes out for.
7/14 – Neon Abyss (Trailer) Metacritic score: 80 (With 4 Reviews) – Developer Veewo Games is probably best known for the Super Phantom Cat series on the Apple App store, which has consistently gotten Metacritic scores over 80. While those games were fairly simple, lighthearted retro platformers, Neon Abyss is something else entirely, an action-platformer with tons of screen-filling gunplay.
Announced 7/2: 7/16 – Neversong (Trailer) – Previously titled Once Upon a Coma, Neversong released just in May of this year on other platforms, and has a score of 75 on Metacritic on the PC version, and while other versions don't have enough reviews yet for a score, the reviews already released are strong. This is a short (4 hours-ish) Puzzle-Platformer with a striking look and a dark tone of a world where a mysterious figure has kidnapped your best friend and for some reason all of the adults have gone missing.
7/17 – Paper Mario: The Origami King (Trailer) Metacritic score: 81 (With 53 Reviews) – Of course the question on everyone's mind regarding this game right now is... will it be more like the first few Paper Mario games, or more like the last few... because the N64 original game and its GameCube follow-up are beloved by fans, and the more recent games... well, aren't. However, every game in the series has a score over 75 on Metacritic, so whether this game ends up being truly great or merely just good, it's still probably a safe bet.
7/17 – Warhammer 40,000 Mechanicus (Gameplay Demo) – Originally released to PC in 2018, Mechanicus got a Metacritic score of 78, with critics praising its strategic turn-based gameplay and high level of customization.
7/21 – Rock of Ages 3: Make & Break (Trailer) – While the Switch version of Rock of Ages 2 was generally considered to be a lacking port, it was nevertheless still a good game, rating 75 on Metacritic, and with any luck this time will hopefully be better, with the game being developed for all platforms at the same time. For those unfamiliar with this series, it's an odd blend of tower defense and ball-rolling arcadey game, where two opponents are trying to build defenses to halt the forward progress of the enemy, and then roll a ball through those defenses to smash the enemy hiding in their castle.
Announced on 7/1/20: 7/21 – Crysis Remastered (Trailer) – When it originally released in 2007 on PC, Crysis became the benchmark for computer graphics for years to come, and earned a score of 91 on Metacritic. This game is now getting remastered and brought to multiple modern platforms, including the Switch, and suffice it to say that even despite the age of this First-Person Shooter, people are eagerly waiting to see how this game performs on a handheld. Also, the Switch can always use more First-Person Shooters, and Crysis is one of the big guns in the genre.
Announced 7/1/20: 7/22 – Creaks (Trailer) – The developer of Creaks, Amanita Design, consistently churns out quality games, including Machinarium, Botanicula, and the Samorost series. Of the games that have scores on Metacritic, every single one of them has a score higher than 75. That's a phenomenal track record, and there's no reason to think their upcoming Creaks will be any different, being that a dark, comedic Puzzle Platformer fits well within their comfort zone.
7/28 – Samurai Shodown NeoGeo Collection (Trailer) – This one's a bit of a cheat, since it's just a collection of seven classic arcade fighting games, but they are seven fighting games generally considered to be excellent entries in the genre, with added online play and bonus features, and with a price tag of $40, that works out to just under $6 per game, which isn't a bad price (for comparison, the ACA series of Fatal Fury games sell for $8 each). Fighting game fans wanting to own a series of genre classics will undoubtedly want to pick this up.
7/30 – Locomotion (Trailer) – Once again, we have a game that reviewers missed, but players are praising. Locomotion was released last year on PC and was overlooked by reviewers, but the small handful of players who rated the game on Steam were unanimous in their praise for the game – as of this writing, it has a 100% approval rating. This game is a train-based puzzle game with self-contained levels that look just a bit like dioramas (I'm getting a little bit of a Captain Toad vibe here).
7/31 – Castlestorm 2 (Trailer) – The first Castlestorm got a Metacritic score of 78 on the Switch, and was an excellent take on the tower defense genre, with players building their own castles between battles, and then during the battle requisitioning troops based on changing battlefield conditions while aiming a ballista at the enemies and their own castle.The sequel looks to keep much of the same gameplay while adding in a very Monty Python-esque style of humor.
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Anyway, that's what I could find for July 2020 on the Switch, but no doubt some of you have specific games you've got your eye on this next month. Please feel free to give a shout out to any game you feel deserves attention! :-)
submitted by CaspianX2 to NintendoSwitch [link] [comments]

How to DD Biopharma and Not Fuck Up

Earnings only come 4 times per year, and most little biotechs don't have any anyway. Problem is, guys like us, we need to lose money to big news at least twice as often. The solution: pharma stocks, where you also get clinical trial read outs, patent litigation, and PDUFA dates on the ol' catalyst calendar. Ready to learn how? For the purpose of annoying all you options traders, I'm going to write this from the perspective of someone going long the equity of a small to mid-cap. Plenty of DD already out there on Abbott and J&J.
Step 1. Cash matters. Stay the fuck away from anything development stage with a market cap under $150 million. Unless you are YOLO-ing a hundred bucks or whatever, the only thing these plays will do is disappoint you worse than you disappoint your dad. Pharmaceutical research takes hundreds of millions of dollars to bring one small molecule from pre-clinical to market under ideal circumstances. A fucking rat carcinogenicity study can run $8 mil and 3 years. Under-capitalized companies with anything besides stud assets don't get bought, they raise and dilute and rinse and repeat, because there is always dumb money out there willing to bet on the 26th attempt to cure alzheimer's by hitting amyloid, or the next me-too formulation of methylphenidate (now in a pez dispenser!) to treat ADHD. Any dipstick with $15m in capital can get listed on the NASDAQ. I've met a lot of them. Don't give them your money. Look at the clinical development success rates by therapeutic area, published by BIO (warning: PDF). Make sure your model discounts back to whatever phase your target's lead candidate is in.
Step 2. Look at the actual patents. The database is free, and reading is easy. You're not looking to do a full FTO analysis here, just see that they actually have some claims that aren't total bullshit. Search the company name in "assignee name" then search all the names of the inventors you see listed to make sure they've actually assigned the patents to your target, and that the patents actually cover the drug they're talking about in their press releases. You'd be amazed that sometimes they don't. Check the date of filing/acceptance. If it's still preclinical but has burned ten years of patent life, walk away.
There are four kinds of patents that matter to pharmaceuticals:
  1. Composition of matter - you'll recognize this because the claims will say things like, "compositions of...." and "a compound containing XXXX or pharmaceutically acceptable salt thereof". These are the only un-fuck-withable patents you get.
  2. Formulation - this means the molecule is not novel, but the pill, patch, liquid, or suppository is. These can be fine, or they can be sketchy. You need to evaluate the underlying technology. Has it been used before in other drugs? Were there Paragraph IV filings on them? Was the company that licensed this technology to my darling DD target sued along with the manufacturer of that other drug? Any one of these can trip you up. Look for solid technology that hasn't cracked under a lawsuit yet.
  3. Method of use - these patents limit the use of the compound to a specific disease like autism. These are easier to work around, but better than nothing since they give the company a heads-up that generics may be coming (remember that paragraph IV thing I mentioned? It means that the generic makers have to file a lawsuit, followed by an automatic 30-month stay on launching their knock-off.) If all your target has is methods of use, tread cautiously.
  4. Method of manufacture - these are worthless.
  5. Other kinds of regulatory exclusivity. Yeah I said 4. This is different, but can still matter. Deal. Orphan Drug (7 years), New Chemical Entity (5 years), QIDP (5 years but just applies to antibiotics, which don't make money), Rare Pediatric Disease (accelerated review voucher, worth $50-100m if sold), Clinical Trial Data (3 years)
Step 3. Look at the epidemiology - If your target company has the cure for some ultra-weird orphan disease, so what? Is there a patient registry? An advocacy group full of sad moms? A celebrity that has it? Are there academic centers treating the population currently? If not how the hell are they supposed to find the patients to charge their insurers $1m a head for this miracle cure? Also, holy goddamn, $1m a head? Is management prepared to get hauled in front of Congress to wither under national media scrutiny for weeks on end because people don't understand that nobody would develop drugs for a disease with 500 patients if they didn't make money? Pray they get bought by Alexion or move along.
If it's not an orphan disease, what are the insurers going to pay for it? New antibiotics, for example, are worthless commercial investments, because hospitals will reserve them for the absolute worst-case, dumpster fire, probably going to die anyway patients and give everyone else a z-pack or generic iv rocephin all day long. Find out what the cheapest thing to treat your target company's disease of choice is and then scour the conference call transcripts for how in the name of bleeding Jesus they're going to get those tight-fisted bastards at United Health and Blue Cross to pay for it. Gross-to-Net deductions of 50% are the low end of normal now that there are 2-3 wholesalers and maybe ten insurers that matter nationally. Make sure you're discounting your projected cash flows appropriately.
Step 4. Now, and only now, do you even bother to see what the rest of the company looks like. Are they in Phase 2? Data reading out this year? Great. A phase 3 trial costs at minimum, $10,000 per patient per week. Double that if it's an inpatient study, or being done against an expensive standard of care (like in cancer, where you can't use placebo because ethics.) Companies will often not tell you what these trials will cost, but you can find out. Look at the current market leading drug's label here and find section 14 (Clinical Trials Experience). This will tell you the number of patients and how long the study ran. Regulatory affairs people like precedents, as does the FDA, so it's a good bet that your target's Phase three trials will look a lot like this. Do the multiplication, and decide if that number plus their burn rate of the past 24 months less R&D expense is > cash on hand.
Step 5. The Target Product Profile. Odds are, your prospective acquisition has talked up the benefits of their darling compound, and completely downplayed the side effects. Look at the available clinical trial results with a jaundiced eye. Pharma reps, when visiting doctors tend to show them an i-pad and say, big bar good, little bar bad and leave it there. Because they're also buying lunch for the office and wearing a low-cut top, the 'scripts get written. We aren't going to fall for that though, are we? Was there a dose-proportional response in their target efficacy endpoint? Was the p value at the 5th decimal place, or did they barely squeak by at p= 0.0499? What about the discontinuation rate? How does it compare to the current standard of care? All this feeds back to the number one question analysts should be asking management; "How will you get insurers to pay for this?" If there's not a clear separation on efficacy versus the prior standard, or a reduction by at least 50% in a really gnarly side effect, expect the commercial launch to be a slog.
Step 6. The pipeline. Is your target going to continue to exist after Phase 3 is over, or is their plan to get bought? Look at management. Is there anyone with commercial experience on the executive team? Is there a head of sales? Marketing? Look for clues as to whether they're really cut out for this. Did big pharma (Pfizer or Genentech) license something deeper down in their pipeline, back at Phase 1 or before? That means multiple someones with budgets in the billions, access to a diligence database full of every document about the compound, and had the company's management on speed dial for months... passed on buying the thing that's in Phase 2/3 now.
Step 7. The exit. Let's say all this has lined up, and you've found a company that's got the goods, with solid data in a real market, ironclad patents, enough capital to cover the next 23 months, and a share price that's not yet north of 200x projected earnings. (Even still, do not let this little bastard become more than 10% of your overall sector exposure.) What's your exit catalyst? If you're betting on an acquisition, look at the big boys in that therapeutic area and see whether there are any where this drug actually fits. Just because Roche or Ferring has "women's health" drugs, does not mean they're going to buy Sprout. The former are in reproductive endocrinology (maybe 2,000 doctors) and the latter has a lead asset in sexual dysfunction ( that's primary care, psychiatry, and OB-GYN, 250,000 doctors at the low end.) Roche isn't going to build that sales force. Is there actually a strategic acquirer or licensee that makes sense?
If not, is there anyone on your target's management team who has commercialized drugs before? Is there a sales & marketing staff? If not, is there the cash on hand to create or rent one? If you know these things before you click "buy" you might just not fuck up.
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Betting Odds & Chance. To first understand what betting odds are, we have to first understand the concept of chance. Chance is the likelihood of an event happening. It is often expressed in percentages, also referred to as the probability. Let's roll a dice. Rolling a dice yields a probability of 1 out of 6 for each outcome. cincinnati vs. kansas city 24-14 cincinnati houston texans vs. jacksonville 13-31 jacksonville miami vs. cleveland 24-27 cleveland minnesota vs. chicago 10-31 chicago philadelphia vs. ny jets 31-21 phily st. louis vs. baltimore 23-20 st.louis tennesse vs. tampa bay 32-24 tennesse washington vs. green bay 13-31 gb carolina vs. arizona 14-24 11.20 Belmont Park; 11.20 Belmont Park Betting Odds Comparison. Race 10 - Manhattan Stakes (Grade 1) (Flat) Betting odds and chance. To first understand what betting odds are, we have to first understand the concept of chance. Chance is the likelihood of an event happening. It is often expressed in percentages, also referred to as the probability. Let's roll a dice. Rolling a dice yields a probability of 1 out of 6 for each outcome. Odds Conversion Guide. To convert decimal odds to fractional, subtract 1.00 and then find the nearest whole integers (so 3.75 - 1.00 becomes 2.75/1, or 11/4).. To convert moneyline odds to decimal, if the moneyline is positive, divide by 100 and add 1.If it is negative, divide 100 by the moneyline amount (without the minus sign) and add 1. To convert fractional odds to decimal, divide the

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⚾️ Doosan Bears vs SK Wyverns Free Pick (6-23-20) Korean KBO Baseball Predictions & Odds South Korea

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