Investors who have flooded into the oil markets to bet on a rebound in crude prices are risking big losses, say commodity specialists, as the exchange traded funds they use are swept up in the current market turmoil. The United States Oil fund, the largest oil ETF known as USO, saw inflows of about $1.5bn last week, as US crude prices hit their lowest levels since the early 2000s on plunging demand.
Professional traders said retail investors, in particular, were trying to pick the turning point for oil, betting that the market will recover quickly once coronavirus-fighting measures are eased. But prices had further to fall. On Monday, West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, crashed below zero for the first time in history, dropping as low as minus $40 as traders dumped the contract for delivery in May. The June contract, where most of USO’s investments currently sit, lost 15 per cent to about $21 a barrel.
Investors are not just at risk of placing a wrong-way bet, traders say, as oil contracts do not trade like equities. Instead, they expire monthly so the underlying crude can be delivered to buyers — something specialists fear could be poorly understood by greenhorn investors. “Investment in ETFs currently harbours high risks to investors who might be tempted to passively invest in oil due to ultra-low prices,” said Michel Salden, head of commodities at Vontobel Asset Management. Losses can occur when tracker funds have to “roll” their exposure when contracts expire, Mr Salden said.
If the oil market structure shifts into “contango” — an industry term for when spot prices are trading below contracts for future delivery — then an ETF might have to sell its contracts at the lower price, then buy the next month’s contract at a higher price just to maintain its holdings. Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, said that the largest long-only oil ETFs had seen their net holdings rise by 400 per cent in the past month.
These ETFs, he warned, “are predominantly positioned at the front of the futures curve and will be exposed to rolling losses every month until the market fundamentals eventually stabilise”. That process “could take several months,” he added. USO was the fourth most actively traded ETF in the US on Monday morning, with more than half a billion dollars changing hands before lunchtime in New York, as the WTI spot price plummeted.
Investors’ move into USO is reminiscent of 2009, when many investors bought the ETF as crude prices slipped to near $30 a barrel, before almost tripling over the next 12 months as the world economy emerged from the depths of the financial crisis. Investors found their ETF returns did not match the oil-price gains, as they had lost a large chunk of their investment each month through the process of rolling contracts. The USO fund, launched in 2006, typically absorbs cash from investors when crude prices hit bottom. Inflows previously peaked in early 2009 and in early 2016, just after oil-price crashes. Since March, the number of shares outstanding in the fund has doubled as new cash comes in.
As of Friday, the fund held the equivalent of 146.5m barrels of WTI crude futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a division of CME Group. That was more than a quarter of the total open interest in the contract, exchange data showed.
Nymex market rules impose “accountability levels” of 10m barrels equivalent for most US crude futures contracts, above which traders can be ordered to reduce their position. CME declined to comment on whether it had communicated with USO. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a government regulator, has proposed a 6m-barrel limit on individual fund positions in US crude on the brink of delivery, but refrained from setting caps for positions in contracts for delivery later on.
Some traders say the USO fund is big enough to exacerbate price moves between different contract months as it rolls out of one position and into another. “That definitely can put downward pressure on the market,” said Joe Raia, a former senior executive in energy futures at Nymex and Goldman Sachs.
USO announced last Thursday that it was moving 20 per cent of the WTI contracts it holds into later months, in a move widely believed to have been influenced by the blowout in the spread between crude prices. The position “just got to the size where it makes sense to spread it out,” said John Love, chief executive of US Commodity Funds, which runs the USO fund, on Friday.
The USO next rolls its contracts on May 5 to May 8. The fund extended that process to four days early last decade to make it harder for other traders to front-run its moves. Additional reporting by Gregory Meyer in New York
You might know this young lady from the early-2011 scandal, when she suggested she would appear in a 'villainesses show skin' publication in a major magazine, igniting a firestorm of controversy. Some of that controversy was alleged to be manufactured, with bot accounts paid to support and spread her position of 'every body type, every circumstance', arguing her body was perpetually small and compact due to her explosive power, and every major publication denied any involvement or plans to do a 'villainesses show skin' issue, with some citing the disaster at L.J.M. photography in 2007 as a reason why they wouldn't.
But that's not what we're talking about today. It's certainly been talked about enough, and that may be the aim of Bambina, a villain noted for her focus on 'the Blacklist', a site for sponsoring, betting on, and getting exclusive access or privileges from villains, frequently shut down or forced to relocate by law enforcement. Controversy and media attention help villains climb the rankings, which means more money, and this is something virtually everyone, supporter or detractor alike, would say Bambina excels at.
Only those who closely followed the controversy to its arguable conclusion saw the first Argo* v. Argo* case. It wasn't widely publicized, there was no bot army to push one side or stir up the controversy, and by the time anything newsworthy happened, people were sick of the controversy. Bambina's mother and manager tried for conservatorship of her eighteen year old daughter, they went to court, last names changed to protect identities, and the PRT was enlisted to assist Mrs. Argo*. Bambina's substantial financial earnings to that point were held hostage. The ending wasn't exciting; in the back and forth of filings and disputes, the tax authorities found something to latch onto, accounts were frozen, and authorities found cause to seize some of the illicit funds. The court case continued for two more weeks, while Bambina pulled several heists, robberies, and stunts to earn the funds to keep it going, and then it petered out.
Bambina had other things to focus on, as the distraction had seen her rankings slip, and the funds were seized, depleted by legal costs, or frozen.
Jump forward to May of this year. Fresh out of PRT custody following her actions against the Los Vegas PRT, Bambina had a fractious split with her young teammates, Starlet, August Prince, and Tantrum, one of whom who alleged that the villain was being controlling. In the back and forth that followed, one of whom retaliated, alleging she had spent tens of thousands of dollars to hire people to hack the 'blacklist'. Bambina would allege this was done by her mother, who pointed her finger at Bambina, in turn. The stakes, it seemed, were high, as many villains put a lot of stock in the Blacklist.
None of this is especially unusual, up until the new court filings. Alleging her daughter was a risk to the public and her health, Mrs. Argo* filed again for conservatorship of her daughter. Her daughter, now armed with a surprising array of resources soon after the depletion of her accounts and stay in jail, made a quick and incisive reply.
At the same time Bambina filed her reply and completed the paperwork to answer Mrs. Argo*'s filing, the Youth Guard made statements on the subject, stating they would be taking action in coordination.
The Youth Guard, a citizen organization with close ties to the PRT and Wards programs, has long been established as defenders of children in costume. Their goal, they say, is to target the management companies that Mrs. Argo* worked so closely with, talent agencies they say are grooming youths such as Bambina (prior to the young woman turning eighteen), Starlet, and Tantrum. With Bambina's input and help, they say, they can identify patterns of corruption and abuse. When contacted for comment, they told us that more details are to follow, but to other publications, they've named incidents such as youths being urged to work long hours and being given drugs to help them stay up for the late-night activities, dangerous mercenary work, minors being placed in close proximity to murderers and worse in Blacklist publicity events, and management companies paying for accommodations, keeping minors separated from their parents.
Detractors are already saying that Bambina is a problematic name to attach to this endeavor. The villainess is not just steeped in controversy, but seeks it out. Mrs. Sherita Minnick, representing Ms. Argo, suggested that the initial threads of this project with the infighting with Starlet were suspicious, as Starlet and Bambina have already mended fences and are teamed up again. They say the Youth Guard is tainting its name in one of its first-ever actions in support of young villains.
For what it's worth, Bambina isn't on the Blacklist anymore, as her cooperation with the Youth Guard essentially attacks it, but on two similar sites, unnamed for legal reasons, she's sitting at coveted #1 and #3 spots.
Hello everyone, i just wanted to share my attempted at a semi informed DD.submitted by golfwangthesenuts to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
The Dark Index (DIX) and Gamma Exposure (GEX) have been a subject of debate in the discussion room lately. So i thought that it would be a decent to inform and provide my personal opinion on their movements. If this has already been posted then I apologize.
Here is the squeeze metrics link. Here is also another great form of information, it is more helpful in my opinion. It highlights everything that you would need to know about dark pools.
I also want to note that we are in unprecedented times, the government is buying anything and everything trying to keep the market afloat. Trump is telling us that we will be reopened by two weeks ago. Oil is in complete free fall. Oh yeah and the pandemic. It turns out that the Brazilian president was wrong about his people being immune to the corona virus, which is scary because if it gets into the bat population in brazil it can mutate a lot faster. Any who, lets jump right in shall we?
The Dark Index (DIX)
The Dark Index is a dollar weighted measure of the dark pool indicator. It tracks the dark pool short volume for components of the S&P. It is interesting to note that short volume is actually investors buying the underlying stock. So a high percentage (over 45%) for DIX indicates that the market sentiment is stocks only go up and there is more short volume than non short. This is confusing yes but let me try to explain it.
I am the MM and I want to make money today so i tell my HFT algo to create a spread for SPCE. It looks at current market and says Bid: $16.95 and Ask: $17.07. The spread is $0.12. The MM is offering to sell at 17.07 and to buy at 16.95. An investor A puts in an order to buy a share of SPCE at 17.07 and investor B puts an order to sell at 16.95. The MM will place a SHORT sale at 17.07, sell the share of SPCE at 17.07 then instantly turn around and buy a share back at 16.95 from investor B to satisfy its short sale. That is why investors buying are considered short volume.
So as of right now the DIX is at 43.98%. This means that only 43.98% of daily volume is short volume, aka people buying. Historically a rising DIX (yes that is funny laugh it up) indicates market sentiment is bullish while visa versa means bearish. In this case we are looking to get to see a further deterioration of DIX into the 42% to 38% range to see a drastic pull down.
Here is the White Paper they provide for more info.
The DIX has been in a gradual decline ever since we had out totally normal totally legal run up 30% in the S&P. Now we can move on to GEX or the gamma exposure.
Gamma Exposure (GEX)
This has to do with MM delta hedging against calls and puts. This can introduce a put squeeze which is essentially a short squeeze.
If a MM sells you a SPY 240 5/1 (RIP) it will immediately calculate the delta of that option and hedge accordingly. So lets say your OTM SPY put that you were promised was going to print tendies only has a delta of .20 (20%) then the MM is going to go out and short 20 shares of SPY to hedge against the risk. The shorting of those 20 SPY shares pushes the price down further and what happens when it turns out you were wrong about your SPY 240 put? SPY sits at 283 and the delta of your put has gone down to .10 (10%) so the MM no longer needs to hold 20 shorted positions so it buys 10 to keep a delta neutral portfolio.
A low GEX means that the options market is more geared towards puts. Yes i said it all you gay bears, but it is still sitting at 1,264M. But only 6 days ago it was at 6,412M so this is a steep drop off over the past couple days. A high GEX implies that MMs are hedging with ITM or ATM options because they are expecting a change in the current price direction. A negative GEX, like we had starting on February 24th of -773M (aka the real start to the whole downtrend) implies a put squeeze of 773 million shares for every +1% movement in SPY. (The same idea applies to calls buy in the opposite fashion) This creates volatility in the market.
THIS IS NOT TA ON VIX, im not telling you to buy VIX calls every time it dips below 50 that is actually retarded, but.
It is not a coincidence that VIX jumped 46% the same day that GEX went negative. When GEX is high it insinuates low volatility, and when it is low is implies there will be. As a bearish outlook and put heaving options market drag SPY down it creates panic. There are also people buying share as it is falling thinking they are getting a sweet deal on SPY when it is at 275 because it is only a pandemic right? stocks only go up? All while this is going on MMs had been writing puts and delta hedging appropriately. So SPY go up intraday 2% that is about 1,546 million shares of SPY getting bought to adjust for delta changing on Feb 24th. Then we degenerates buy more puts because basically they are on sale and the cycle continues until the MM can manipulate the market enough to get their gamma exposure down to decrease volatility. Here is an article that explains why we were stuck in that 270 to 285 window for like two weeks.
On the day that VIX peaked at around 83, the GEX was at -2,170M and DIX was at 37.8%. I am not saying that a direct copy of those levels for GEX or DIX will duplicate a record high volatility day but it will help.
When VIX rose 20% from friday april 17th to tuesday april 21st, the most recent notable spike in volatility, DIX and GEX were both on the decline.
Why do I care about this information?
The DIX went from 51.2% to 44.9% in the days leading up to that volatility spike and decline in the S&P500. It seems that DIX is a precursor to what direction the S&P500 will move in the coming days. So it should be known that it is coming off two year record highs and the only time DIX reached those heights again was in admits the tiny crash in the beginning of 2016 and a fallout or correction in 2011.
On the other hand, GEX seems to mirror the S&P leading into down turns, it only leads the curve by a day or two. Please note that this part is just done by looking at the graph and seeing trends. But nonetheless, if you are a gay bear you want this index to keep falling.
Here are the GEX similarities between the last crash and now for the gay bears.
GEX trying to rise then getting swatted back down implying turbulent days are to come. Just from eye balling the day to day change in SPY and GEX it looks like GEX leads a little and SPY lags. So look for another big drop in GEX, hopefully even go negative.
GEX similar patterns before down turns
Also another thing to note, like i said high GEX usually leaded to a pivot in the current direction of the market in the following time period. GEX was at 6,412M and below are times it has been above or at that in the past two years.
It will be very interesting to see what dark liquidity things of this earnings week for tech and basically half of the S&P500.
GEX similarities between crashes at heights
Similarities between DIX in the first crash and now for the gay gay bears.
TLDR: If this trend continues then it is possible to have another leg down here soon. Be vigilant and check this index a few times a week just to see where the sentiment in dark pools is. Right now I am holding $SPY 6/19 and 9/18 puts.
Also this is not financial advice, I am just sharing my thinking behind my betting my money. If i missed anything or mis explained something then please let me know.
Final edit (05-06) - Sorry that this went tits up for everyone. I lost most of my $20k as well. As you saw, $STNG massacred earnings by over 50% on EPS, strong revenue beat, and really strong guidance as predicted...then went down 10%. What I didn't understand, apparently, was that the market doesn't give a fuck about that in the tanker space...no more DD for me, back to meme stocks I guess.submitted by sAfuRos to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Monday morning edit: Offer up your wives if you got in this morning before the pump. Take some profits.
Okay idiots, I'm going to drop some actual useful DD for you. tl;dr and positions at the top, because I know that for the majority of you, "Fedex parked in front of White House, buy calls", is as sophisticated DD as you can handle. This is a long post, so for those of you who actually want to understand why you're taking a position and learn about a commodity, read on; for those of you who don't, fuck off.
OVERALL TL;DRTankers not only begin earnings this week but said earnings will be the best they have been in at least 5 years, if not the last decade, due to all-time-high tanker rates that began spiking in mid-March. Rates are so high that, say, companies with clean LR2 tankers currently run a spot price of 8x the 5 year historical average and a single 2 month spot voyage is enough to be profitable on the entire year. Make bets on tanker companies that are trading below their NAV, will post strong FCF, were well positioned for the spike in prices, have large fleets, and have the right types of ships. $NAT is a risky stock because it's actually the among the worst across every single one of these dimensions of any tanker company.
WHY NAT IS A MEME:
Let me draw you an analogy:
WSB is a class in school, and you've all decided not to be homosexual for a day. NAT is a girl in the class. Now that you're not homos, you all start sending NAT dick pics and showering her with attention, assuming that she is extremely high value. However, in your autistic haste, you all forgot to look around and fail to realize that there are 15 other girls in the classroom; moreover, they are all way hotter than NAT. NAT is now overvalued and many of you are too attached to admit you had no idea what the fuck you were doing and are - now.
I like EURN and STNG, but there are many other viable tanker plays you could look at. Check out TNK. DSSI, DHT, FRO etc; DYOR.
Low Risk Position Examples
SECTION 1: Overview on Oil Demand CrisisIf you understand oil demand destruction and contango, skip ahead to section 2. However, based on the fact that people continue to pile in on USO and UCO calls and leaps under the justification of "hurr durr oil must go up, it's so cheap", and half of you are still bagholding $NAT, I assume 75%+ of you are retarded.
Many of you still probably have no idea what's happening with oil and why it's fucked long-term. The tl;dr here is that even with OPEC+'s historical cuts, we're still drastically oversupplied. The problem with oil is it's not your meme SPY calls that are in the cloud; oil is a physical product and when you trade USO, you're trading (theoretically) on receiving delivery of oil. We are almost completely out of oil storage already.
You may ask, well u/safuros, if that's true, why don't we turn off the wells? Markets naturally handle supply and demand. Oil production isn't that simple. The reason every country is sandbagging and trying to get other countries to cut oil is that there's a game theory element in play, as well as an oil well intrinsic function issue.
Once conventional oil wells reduce their production to roughly 50-60% of output, they cannot go any lower without risking damaging the wells, which are extraordinarily expensive to get the rights to drill on/lease and is like risking a gallon of water when you've only taken a sip. Thus, the only option to reduce further is to entirely stop production and cap the well, and then, assuming your lease on the well hasn't lapsed by the time you can re-open it, uncap it, both of which are extraordinarily expensive options that are also time-consuming.
Therefore, many oil companies would rather just sell at a crappy rate, because that's still a long-term better play than turning off; you're paying for the well either way. Game-theory wise, why the fuck should you be the well to turn off, if other's aren't? Add in the fact that everyone cheats on oil production cuts and the Saudis and Russians are trying to fuck each other as well as US shale, and you've got a nice oil crisis. Per comments, note that US oil production is easier to spin up and down than overseas oil, but that doesn't really matter because we can't stop everyone else from producing and we aren't going to bear the entire burden ourselves.
This leads to the USO/UCO shit show and negative WTI price. Normally, futures holders offload their contracts to buyers who intend to actually take physical delivery as the option expiration date draws near. However, because there is no storage and no demand, none of the typical buyers actually wanted to buy, so you had a bunch of tendie seeking autists desperately trying to offload their contracts so that they wouldn't have 5 dumptrucks of oil barrels delivered to their homes and be completely fucked, such that they were willing to pay people (i.e. negative price) to take their contracts. As for contango, well, google it.
Finally, this problem isn't going away any time soon because unless you're so truly deluded as to believe that we'll not only have a V shaped re-opening in terms of social, commercial, and consumer behavior, but that fuel consumption across airlines and cars will rebound immediately, we're on a long term path to demand recovery. This is like having a clogged bathtub full of water and turning the faucet from 100% on to 50% on - you're still fucked until the faucet turns off (impossible) or the clog goes away more than enough to offset the faucet (not happening for a while). This is why experts broadly agree that the OPEC+ cuts are meaningless and that groups like Morgan Stanley believe demand destruction of oil will persist until well into 2021.
SECTION 2: A brief overview of TankersYou don't need much of a brain to understand, given the above, that tankers stand to benefit from demand destruction. However, there are many types of tankers, and it's not as obvious as hurr durr buy tankers. Each tanker type carries a different type of product, has a different size, and commands a different rate. Here is the current rates:
3 key types of tanker business models, spread across a variety of tanker variants
At this point I'm realizing that this post is getting way too long and i'm tired of typing it already, but do your own research on types of tankers. You can see though that tankers are commanding a stupidly high rate compared to their historical values:
The current rates are so high that one spot voyage is profitable on the entire year.
"If an MR can get $30,000 per day on a spot voyage, it covers its costs for a year...If an LR2 gets $150,000 or $160,000 a day, it’s the same...you could lay the ship up, earn zero for the next ten months, and still make a profit on the ship."Guess who owns the most clean-fuel ready LR2's that are exposed to the spot price? $STNG
Now, don't be stupid and assume that rates will hold this high all year. That said, even if rates went to $0 by mid summer, the rates for Q2 are so high such that it'd still be a higher revenue year than last year. And rates aren't going to $0...they're going to continue to stay above the historical average, just not as high as now, due to the crazy demand destruction.
SECTION 3: Why $STNG and $EURN?I really need to go fuck your wife soon, so I'm making the sections shorter and shorter; however, Ii'll still tell you way $STNG and $EURN are good bets. First, let's start with NAV - Net Asset Value. If you don't know what this means, Google it.
(edit) Disclaimer - As I mentioned at the top of the post, there are plenty of other viable tanker options. $STNG and $EURN are my plays so that's why this is focused on them.
As you (should) know, NAV is something you estimate and can be calculated differently based on different assumptions. Trading below NAV means the stock is underpriced as is, and that's before record earnings and guidance. By most accounts, $EURNs NAV is at least $13 currently, and $STNG is close to $30. They trade at $10 and $21, respectively, right now.
$STNG isn't even at its average price for 2019, but 2020 is objectively a better year unless a meteor blows up their fleet
Secondly, fleet size and type. $STNG has one of the largest fleets in the world, and in particular, they have the most LR2 tankers. If you go back up to the graph, you'll see that clean LR2 tankers are commanding an absurd rate, spiking to as high as $250,000 for a few days and currently settled around $150-175k/day, compared to a 5-year historical value of below $25k. $EURN has a solid fleet of VLCC's which are commanding a strong rate, and EURN has good financials - most their boats are fairly new, they don't have a ton of debt.
Lastly, they're among the first up on the earnings block, with STNG reporting 5/6 this week and EURN reporting on 5/7. Compare that to NAT, who reports the 23rd, so theta will eat away at what remains of your atrophied testicles every day. That said, regardless of theta, STNG and EURN are really strongly positioned.
I expect that earnings will be solid and likely beat, but not by a crazy amount because rates only started really jacking up in late March, and rates in early Q1 were actually pretty low. However, as many of you still don't fucking understand, earnings don't matter nearly as much as guidance. That's why you dumbfucks all complain about companies beating earnings but still tanking and then creating stupid conspiracy theories about "MM is fucking rigging this market". The good news here is that earnings should be solid, while guidance for is going to be euphoric.
SECTION 4: Why is $NAT a meme, and mistakes I see people makingUltimately, this comes down to people angling towards the right space (tankers) but you've been too stupid to do any research. You probably do this for all your bets, because you're a fucking autist, but you should stop.
b-bUT cRamEr SaId NAT hAs THe BiGGeSt fLe3t iN tHe WoRLd!!!
MY POSITIONS:As proof that I put money where my mouth is, I have ~$20k riding in on these positions:
- 40 $STNG 5/15 $23C
- 200 $EURN 5/15 $12.5C
CONCLUSION:Fuck you. All in $NAT calls.
Alright CYKAS, Drill Sgt. Retarded TQQQ Burry is in the house. Listen up, I'm gonna train yo monkey asses to make some motherfucking money.submitted by dlkdev to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
“Reeee can’t read, strike?” - random_wsb_autistBitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this:
Why am I telling you this?
Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches.
That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen.
So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you).
If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep.
This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first.
This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:
Table of Contents:
I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
IV. Busting your retarded myths
V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo
VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.
"hurr durr OP retarded, OP sell puts" - random_wsb_autistSit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect?
Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:
Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it.
I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is?
Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5:
How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?
"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?"
On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:
"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences.Ahahaha, fuckstick bought TQQQ at $70, cuz that's what you do after a random 5-sigma move, right? How many of you dumbasses did the same thing? Don't lie, I see you buying 3/5 on this TQQQ chart:
Meanwhile, on 3/3, I answered the question "Where do you see this ending up at in the next couple weeks? I have 3/20s" with "under 30 imo".
Well good fucking job, because a week later on 3/11, TQQQ closed at $61, and it kept going.
Nomura: Market staring into the abyss
"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:
"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? "Good job, fuckfaces. Y'all bought this one too, admit it. I see you buying on this chart:
Well guess what, by 3/18, a week later, we did get another 5 standard deviation move. TQQQ bottomed on 3/18 at $32.73. Still think that was just luck, punk? You know how many sigmas that was? Over 12 god-damn sigmas. 12 standard deviations. I'd have a much better chance of guessing everyone's buttcoin private key, in a row, on the first try. That's how unlikely that is.
"Hurr durr you said it's going to 0, so you're retarded because it didn't go to 0" - random_wsb_autistYeah, fuckface, because the Fed bailed ‘em out. Remember the $150b “overnight repo” bazooka on 3/17? That’s what that was, a bailout. A bailout for shitty funds and market makers like Trump's handjob buddy Kenny Griffin from Citadel. Why do you think Jamie Dimon had a heart attack in early March? He saw all the dogshit that everyone put on his books.
Yup, everyone got clapped on their stupidly leveraged derivatives books. It seems Citadel is “too big to fail”. On 3/18, the payout on 3/20 TQQQ puts alone if it went to 0 was $468m. And every single TQQQ put expiration would have had to be paid. Tens or hundreds of billions on TQQQ puts alone. I’d bet my ass Citadel was on the hook for a big chunk of those. And that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to all the other blown derivative trades out there.
Y’all still did good, 3/20 closed at $35. That’s $161m/$468m payoff just there. I even called you the bottom on 3/17, when I saw that bailout:
"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago
"hurr durr, it went lower on 3/18 so 3/17 wasn't the bottom" - random_wsb_autistIdiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it.
Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags.
Video of Billy & the Fed train
Here's what Billy boy says:
“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5
Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger.
So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp.
Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play.
I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply:
Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2.
If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats.
You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later.
RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times.
RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays.
RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to
RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains.
RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS:
So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that.
RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS:
Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this:
Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it.
Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads)
Then the autists show up:
"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4Wrong fuckface. You see the max pain at SPX 2975 & OPEX pin coming? Sell them some calls or puts (or spreads).
Sold 9x5/20 SPX [email protected], bam +$6,390. Still wanna pin? Well have some 80x5/22 TQQQ $80cs, bam anotha +$14,700.
+$21,090 - $10,824 = +$10,266 => Turned that shit into a +94.85% gain.
You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit.
5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play.
Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750.
Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How?
47x 2960 calls
-47x 2955 calls
Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have?
46x 2955/2960 bear calls
1x 2960 long call
So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there.
Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad.
And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position.
RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again.
Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS
MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP
Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you!
Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs.
What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables.
Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005.
Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you.
Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR:
2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case)
So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009
After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070
End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392
Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk
2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069
2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194
2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897
Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC.
That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively.
Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage.
There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b).
Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000.
What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000
And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ.
Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425
$100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b
$100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b
$100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b
$100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b
That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable.
In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK
My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage.
And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular.
And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself.
If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox.
If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets.
And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN".
MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET
On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200."
Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too?
Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:
And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to
MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER
Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit:
On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.
"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist
Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31.
So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you:
Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines.
Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here:
In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again.
Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means.
But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well.
Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you.
And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities.
Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG.
Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid.
Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke.
Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week).
And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage.
Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT!
And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do.
Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now.
And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.”
Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit.
And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc.
And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now.
The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake.
And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing.
Got it? Good.
You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB.
Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO
Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO:
STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka.
STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT.
STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10.
STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5.
STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay.
Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?
Good luck. Dr. Retard TQQQ Burry out.
Spread betting allows investors to speculate on the price movement of a wide variety of financial instruments, such as stocks, forex, commodities and fixed income securities. In other words, an Financial spread betting is leveraged trading. It provides traders and investors the opportunity to trade the financial markets without ever taking ownership of the underlying asset. Spread bets are geared trades which give you greater buying power and the potential for greater returns. It leverages the value of your money regardless of the As such, spread bets are derivative instruments. For UK tax payers there can be tax advantages in using financial spread betting products, although tax laws may change in the future. Compare the best spread betting brokers here. Example of a spread bet attempting to take advantage of an intra-day rising market With financial spread betting you can bet in either direction with the same ease (i.e. bet on a share price rise, or bet on a share price fall for instance) – if you predict the market direction correctly, on the same 5% move, you will walk away with 4.75%…if you get it wrong, it costs you about 5.25%… The Financial Conduct Authority has studied a sample of spread-betting customers and found that 82% lost money on products offered by the industry called contracts for difference (CFDs). Is the
[index]          
Established in 1974 as the world’s first financial spread betting firm, we’re now the world’s No.1 provider of CFDs and spread betting* and a global leader in forex. We also offer an ... I spent some time today thinking over the 3 main reasons I lost in my first 2x years Spreadbetting the financial markets. Thank you for watching this video. I hope that you keep up with the videos ... Tim Bennett explains what spread betting is and how a spread bet works. Don't miss out on Tim Bennett's video tutorials -- get the latest video sent straight to your inbox each week, before it's ... Established in 1974 as the world’s first financial spread betting firm, we’re now the world’s No.1 provider of CFDs and spread betting* and a global leader in forex. We also offer an ... Financial spread betting is simple with Spreadex. We give you instant access to a wide range of financial instruments and markets, and let you place bets on whether they'll be higher or lower at ...