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Two Blokes Trading | Forex Trading Community

What is Two Blokes Trading? Two Blokes Trading is a fun and informative podcast and website for new and experienced home financial traders. It follows us, Tom and Owen, as we learn to trade profitably and consistently. We interview leading traders and trading industry insiders every week on the Podcast to give our listeners the best chance of becoming profitable traders.
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A retirement bonus with a catch.

Another recent TFTS post reminded me of this gem.
Back when I was in college, I had a job as a part-time PC tech for a rather large regional IT contractor in the SF Bay Area. One of our bigger contracted clients was a large medical nonprofit, "MedGroupCo", that we maintained with a bi-weekly maintenance contract. Every two weeks or so, we'd send a handful of techs out to do a quick sweep for problems, tune-up their printers, and perform rotating scheduled maintenance on some of their leased PC's and networking equipment. They had more than 600 computers spread across several medical campuses, along with dozens of shared laser printers and associated network closets. We had a solid maintenance plan in place to keep up with everything and they'd been a happy client for many, many years.
One day, out of the blue, MedGroupCo's CTO "Tom" called us up and asked to renegotiate the contract. The medical group was having financial problems and had just gutted his IT budget...he couldn't afford us any longer. After a long sit-down with our sales and support people, we placed the client into a new and cheaper contract. Rather than visit every two weeks, we'd shift them onto a semiannual maintenance plan. We'd come out twice a year to do regular maintenance, and all other calls would be handled on an on-demand basis. Equipment failures would be covered under the lease warranties, but anything beyond that would involve a per-call support charge. The maintenance visits would be more disruptive and require a larger number of techs, but the overall contract cost was substantially lower. "Six figures annually" lower. We warned them that moving to an on-demand based support model would be a bit of an adjustment. Because we'd been visiting every two weeks, the client had never used our ticketing system before. Their employees usually just jotted their computer issues down on a piece of paper and taped them to the sides of their monitors, knowing that we'd be by within a couple of weeks to get them fixed. We emphasized to the client that this might be an employee training issue, but the CTO insisted that he could get his users trained to use the new ticketing system and that it wouldn't be a problem.
Fast forward five months.
Our department manager had started to plan the first of MedGroupCo's semiannual maintenance visits and opened their ticket history to see whether they'd been having any recurring issues that might need special attention. Nada. And by "nada", I don't mean "No recurring issues". I mean no issues at all. The company hadn't filed a single ticket. That was...unlikely. At a minimum, they should have statistically had at least a half-dozen PC crashes during that period, and their printers should have required some maintenance. In hindsight, the manager later admitted that we should have followed up with the company sooner after the contract switch, but we had a LOT of clients and support was spread across several teams, so nobody had noticed that one of our biggest clients hadn't logged a single ticket. Because MedGroupCo hadn't logged any complaints, there was a general assumption that the client was submitting tickets and that they were being handled by one of the other teams.
Our department manager, worried about the discovery, called up their CTO's office and asked for Tom. He was even more worried when the receptionist responded with, "I'm sorry, but Tom retired three months ago. Would you like to speak with our new CTO Dave? Can I ask whose calling? Please hold while I get him on the line."
After a long time on hold, the receptionist came back on with a curt, "Dave isn't currently available to speak with you and he said that we no longer do business with your company. Can I take a message?"
What? We just signed a five-year, $3+ million contract. You bet we'd like to leave a message.
CTO Dave called us back the next day. He dove right in and wasn't kind: "Your company violated our contract and we fired you. When I was hired, we had more than 50 computers that weren't working at all, nothing had been maintained in months, and our printers were a disaster. Every single user had support requests that had never been addressed. This was the most unprofessional thing I've ever seen...you completely abandoned us and we've contracted with CompetitorCorp for our maintenance from now on."
What again?!?!? Our support manager patiently explained to their CTO that we hadn't abandoned anything and that we had a signed contract stating that we'd only be doing onsites every six months. As for their claims that we'd failed to support them, we pointed out that the company had never logged a single support ticket. We'd have happily fixed anything they requested, but they'd never asked. The new CTO, looking over a freshly emailed, newly scanned copy of the current, signed contract, was dumbfounded. He'd never seen it before. He'd...have to call us back.
Two days later, our company leadership, CTO Dave, MedGroupCo's CEO, and a bunch of lawyers sat down for a meeting. Apparently, MedGroupCo had a "cost savings benefit" they offered to their employees. If you find a way to reduce operating costs, the company will credit the first-year savings to the employee as a "bounty". Literally, if an employee found a way to save the company a million dollars a year, they'd give the employee a million dollars. I'd want that deal! CTO Tom wanted that deal too. As it turned out, there had never been any budget cuts. Tom had simply known his retirement was approaching and renegotiated the contract to shave nearly a quarter-million dollars off MedGroupCo's IT maintenance contract...neatly pocketing that quarter-million-dollar "bounty" for himself as he headed out the door.
This deception left MedGroupCo in a tough position. They still had four and a half years left on their five-year, $3+ million contract with our company. And they'd just signed a new five-year, $4 million contract with CompetitorCorp. Both contracts were binding. MedCoGroup was stuck.
Because they'd been a customer for so long, our CEO had a bit of sympathy and made them an offer. He'd allow them to end their contract for $1 million, on the stipulation that they sign an agreement to rejoin our company when their 5-year contract with CompetitorCorp expired. He even sweetened the deal by offering to credit the $1 million to their new contract when they returned. They'd been a profitable customer for a very long time, and he was willing to take a short-term hit in exchange for getting them back in the future. MedGroupCo loved the offer and would have signed the agreement right there, but one of our managers picked that moment to bring up another issue by asking, "Did your contract with CompetitorCorp include equipment? Because if you're not under contract with us we'll need to retrieve all of our leased computers, printers and networking equipment."
Alas, CompetitorCorps's agreement DID include hardware. And printers. And networking equipment. They'd already swapped everything out with shiny new hardware maintained under CompetitorCorp's own leases. And what had CompetitorCorp done with our hardware? As the story was later told, CTO Dave had told them, "They abandoned the equipment...just wipe it and send it all to the dump."
And with that, a $1.4 million dollar equipment loss fee was tacked onto that $1 million buyout, which was promptly refused by MedGroupCo's CEO. The lawyers on both sides went to work feverishly pointing at various clauses in the contracts, trying to negotiate higher ground and paint themselves as the victims in this debacle. Lawsuits were filed. Countersuits were filed. Law enforcement was called in to investigate. Newspapers ran stories about the mean IT company that was trying to fleece money from the poor, poor doctors. And, in the end, MedGroupCo cut us a settlement check for $2 million.
And CTO Tom? Last I heard, he was enjoying his retirement. He was never arrested, charged, or sued for his role in any of it.
submitted by codefyre to talesfromtechsupport [link] [comments]

When Market Bounce Inevitably Comes...Don't Scream "GUH" and Avoid IV Crush (DD Inside)

WSB's greatest advantage is that we pretty much exclusively trade options. That great asset is also our greatest enemy because I would bet 90% of you autists don't understand how they work, so I am here today to try and help you out.
With such insane spikes in volatility (i.e. rises in IV on the option contracts), it is very easy to get fucked by "IV crush." For those idiots who do not know what this means: IV Crush is when volatility (a key component of the option premium) decreases, causing your option contract to lose value, even if you called the directional move correctly. This happened on Thursday and Friday to many autists, including myself, due to the lower than usual volatility. Now, this volatility can translate to your advantage. If you were long puts at the start of the Rona Bear Market, you would have made massive tendies because you called the direction and the increase in volatility.
As with any market route, there is always a bounce, bull trap, dead cat bounce - whatever the fuck you want to call it. The fact is, we are incredibly oversold, and the markets will experience a partial recovery eventually. What I am showing you is that if you buy calls and the market slightly recovers you called the direction but will experience a decrease in volatility. This limits your output of tendies.
I will use u/Variation-Separate and his call for a short term bottoming around 213 on the $SPY and take his rally to the 270 range. The obvious play if what he says happens is picking up 4/17 220c/230c/240c/250c/260c (whatever your preference) and riding the increase. The issue with this play is that your upside is going to be limited by IV crush.
Volatility is measured most transparently for the $SPY using the $VIX, which has been pushing records during this market route. Using historical data, I took a look at the market volatility in 2018, 2017, 2016, and 2008 to show you that on relief rallies, after a significant pullback,the $VIX (aka the proxy for implied volatility on $SPY options) drastically decreases during market recoveries. What this means: your long calls that you scooped up when $SPY was at 213 will not print as much because while $SPY may hit 270 and you will make some money, you are going to get IV crushed by the fall in volatility.
The important takeaway: on dead cat bounces / bull traps / market rallies, the $VIX significantly pulls back. Put another way, the IV on your $SPY calls decreases when markets rebound.
So how do I avoid getting IV crushed on the market rally?
Hedge vega (the quantifiable proxy for IV on option pricing). Vega represents the change in an option value for a 1% change in IV.
The hedge is by going long $SPY calls, and hedging the vega by shorting the $VIX with puts. All you need to do is match up the vega of the $SPY call with the delta of the $VIX put.
The Hypothetical Trade:
Long $SPY 4/17 240c - trading at 9.65 a piece with a vega of 0.2404
Long $VIX 4/15 52.5p - trading at 7.90 a piece with a delta of -0.2463
This essentially creates a vega-neutral position, aka Fuck Off IV Crush You Dumb Cuck. All you need to do is match up the vega of the $SPY call with the delta of the $VIX put, and you will be able to print massive tendies if you call the directional movement correct. However, since option greeks are constantly changing it is best to do this in a shorter time frame, so be nimble.
It should be noted this can be done using spreads or futures but that is 🌈 People keep bringing up IV on the $VIX, which does exist, and can be visualized with $VVIX. If you want a perfect hedge explore vol futures, otherwise you will face some IV crush on $VIX puts, but the hedge still holds up quite well.
tl;dr - When the market bounces and you go long $SPY calls, avoid IV crush by buying puts on the $VIX. Just match up the $SPY call vega with the $VIX put delta.
Enjoy the quarantine - 🌈🐶
Edit:
A lot are asking so it should be noted: if you were betting that $SPY would go down with puts, hedging IV is silly because drops in the $SPY almost always correlate to a higher $VIX, so you most likely won’t get IV crushed. However, if you still wanted to be Vega-neutral with $SPY puts, you would still use $VIX puts because Vega is a positive greek and you are still trying to hedge away a decrease in IV. Note: $SPY falling in marginal, incremental amounts can still experience decreasing IV, so hedging Vega on puts is not always a bad idea in a high IV environment.
Not financial advise, just for educational purposes. The use of specific expiries was to model the Vega / Delta relationship between VIX and SPY
submitted by bigd0g111 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Coronavirus: Trump admits to slowing the testing rate, which allows unabated spread & more American deaths

Good morning everyone - I am posting this coronavirus-centric newsletter instead of the usual Lost in the Sauce because I am running behind after spending yesterday on Father’s Day activities. So tomorrow I will post Lost in the Sauce (covering the political and legal news that may have been overlooked last week). My apologies, I wanted to get something out to you guys today as promised.
Housekeeping:
The World Health Organization on Sunday reported the pandemic's largest single-day increase of confirmed coronavirus cases, with more than 183,000 cases reported in the previous 24 hours. Brazil and the United States contributed the most to the surge in cases.

Testing

Trump says he told his administration to test fewer people: “Testing is a double-edged sword… When you do testing to that extent, you’re gonna find more people, you’re gonna find more cases. So I said to my people slow the testing down, please. They test and they test.” (video)
  • The White House later tried to soften Trump's remark, saying he was joking. Juliette Kayyem, a former assistant secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, points out a key aspect that is often overlooked: “The joke is on us. We stayed inside weeks on weeks with the unstated social contract that it was going to give the nation time to have alternatives to social distancing. And they didn’t do it. The nationwide testing plan never panned out like they said it would.”
  • Congressman Andy Kim (NJ): When I requested FEMA to stand up a Coronavirus test site in South Jersey they told me the White House said no. Now we know why.
EDIT TO UPDATE: A reporter asked Trump this morning if he actually ordered testing to be slowed down - Trump avoided answering the direct question but implied that he thinks we should do less testing. Trump says: "if it did slow down, frankly, I think we're way ahead of ourselves if you wanna know the truth. We've done too good of a job." (video)
Just days earlier, Trump told the WSJ that testing for the coronavirus is "overrated," arguing that it has led to an increase in confirmed cases in the U.S. that "makes us look bad." Trump has made statements like this numerous times before.
  • Reminder: In March, Trump said he wanted to keep passengers and crew on an infected cruise ship so that coronavirus cases in the US don't "double." "I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship."
  • Op-Ed: Trump Just Admitted to a Crime Against Humanity. No, He Wasn’t Joking.
Fact check: Controlling the spread of the pandemic demands finding the infected and isolating them until they can no longer spread the disease, alongside broader measures like social distancing. With an untold number of asymptomatic carriers, the only option to find out who truly has the virus is to test. Meanwhile, a lack of testing hampers the response to the virus. Health officials can’t preempt outbreaks in new regions. The threat then silently persists, infecting, killing, and draining resources. (Vox)
The U.S is now conducting more than 3 million coronavirus tests a week, far short of the 30 million tests per week experts say is needed to safely reopen. These experts aren’t just worried about the number of tests that labs can process. They are concerned about the logistical challenges of testing so many people, and the lag in setting up adequate contact tracing to find who may have been exposed.

Cases continue to rise

Experts abroad: “It really does feel like the U.S. has given up.” Comparing the rolling average of new coronavirus cases in the EU (pop. 446 million) to the US (pop. 330 million), shows the stark difference in results: the US rate is climbing back to its high point of ~30,000 average cases while the EU has stabilized at only 4,000 cases.
  • Note that since that graph was made, the US has surpassed that number: The CDC reported over 32,000 new cases for both Friday and Saturday - the highest daily totals since April 25. [See a few paragraphs below for state details]
Germany’s success in responding to the coronavirus pandemic was based on U.S. research that was ignored or dismissed by the U.S. government. “A large portion of [Germany’s] measures that proved effective was based on studies by leading U.S. research institutes,” said Karl Lauterbach, a Harvard-educated epidemiologist who is a member of the German parliament for the Social Democrats.
If the US had acted when other nations did, using the same information, 70%-99% of American covid deaths would have been avoided. The Oxford index shows that 14 days from the date of the 15th confirmed case in each country — a vital early window for action — the U.S. response to the outbreak lagged behind the others by miles...Due to exponential viral spread, our delay in action was devastating.
  • Meanwhile, at his Tulsa rally over the weekend, Trump boasted that “I have done a phenomenal job on it,” calling the coronavirus “the Chinese virus” and “Kung Flu.”
A dozen states have seen record highs of new COVID-19 cases since Friday… Those include Florida, Texas, Utah, South Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, Missouri, Montana, Arizona, California, Tennessee, and Oklahoma.
  • Arizona’s coronavirus cases have nearly doubled in 14 days, from 26,989 on June 7 to 52,390 on June 21. Florida on Saturday reported 4,049 new coronavirus cases, another consecutive single-day record increase in cases. For the fourth time in five days, Texas reported a record number of new coronavirus cases Saturday.
Hundreds test positive at Tyson Foods plant in Arkansas… Of the 3,748 employees tested, 481 tested positive for COVID-19, and 455 were asymptomatic. [This asymptomatic number is surprising and raises the possibility that there may be contamination somewhere in the testing “chain.”]

Funding and equipment

Trump administration ends funding for new lung damage treatments… The coronavirus attacks the lungs, killing some and leaving others with severe lung ailments. Earlier this month, the federal Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) abruptly notified companies and researchers that it was halting funding for treatments for this severe form of Covid-19. The new policy highlights how staunchly the Trump administration has placed its bet on vaccines.
Instead of COVID testing supplies, FEMA sent the Washington State Health Dept. tiny plastic preforms that can be made into 2-liter soda bottles… The Department of Health received 300,000 vials, all of which were unlabeled, unusually packaged, and unusable.
FEMA paid $7.3 million to a first-time federal contractor with a sketchy owner for these unusable mini soda bottles. The bottles are also contaminated, as employees did not wear masks and kept them in an unclean environment. FEMA reportedly sent them to all 50 states.
A DHS review found that the CDC’s earliest coronavirus test kits were contaminated… Scientists did not thoroughly check the kits despite “anomalies” during manufacturing, according to the federal review. The CDC’s failure with the test added many weeks of delays to the rollout of widespread testing.
One of Trump’s top fundraisers is cashing in on the pandemic… Brian Ballard uses his Trump connections to lobby the administration on behalf of companies seeking to market their health products or score federal relief money. “He’s playing the K Street lobbyist game, buying access to this administration and enjoying that access,” said Craig Holman, who works on ethics and lobbying issues for the watchdog group Public Citizen.
FEMA can find no records of criteria it uses to make distributions to states from the Strategic National Stockpile to address the coronavirus pandemic… The claim is especially concerning because the president has made statements suggesting that states should get federal assistance based on how he feels about the states’ governors.
TSA whistleblower alleges the agency endangered staff and passengers… TSA withheld N95 masks from staff and exhibited "gross mismanagement" in its response to the coronavirus crisis – leaving employees and travelers vulnerable during the most urgent days of the pandemic.
Airports beg government to set face mask policy for passengers… “I can’t emphasize that enough – we would welcome regulations on a temporary basis that you should wear a mask in an airport when you’re transferring through it,” Airports Council International - North America President Kevin M. Burke said this past week.
Concerns that Donald Trump’s inner circle might pressure the FDA to rush a coronavirus vaccine to market in time for the presidential election have risen after the White House attacked the agency for reversing itself on an experimental drug treatment. “And if you give it to people and they think ‘Wow, I’ve got the vaccine now,’ they’re likely not to physically distance, wear face masks. And then if it doesn’t actually work, Oh! We’ve got a disaster on our hands,” said Ezekiel Emanuel, a medical professor at the University of Pennsylvania and former Obama White House health policy adviser.

CARES Act and Paycheck Protection Program

Senators find $14 billion in unspent funds Congress approved in April to expand coronavirus testing and tracing… "While it has been months since these funds were first appropriated, the administration has failed to disburse significant amounts of this funding, leaving communities without the resources they need to address the significant challenges presented by the virus," Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) wrote in a letter to HHS Secretary Alex Azar on Sunday.
The pandemic is disproportionately hurting black-owned small businesses and the administration is not helping… Only 12 percent of black and Hispanic business owners polled between April 30 and May 12 received the funding they had requested. About one quarter received some funding. By contrast, half of all small businesses reported receiving from a single part of the stimulus packages — the Paycheck Protection Program — according to a census survey.
  • Only 2 percent of a $20 million city-wide small business loan program went to businesses in the Bronx, the New York City borough with the highest share of black people, according to a spokesperson for the city’s Department of Small Business Services, while 57 percent went to Manhattan businesses.
A coalition of civil rights groups including the ACLU sued the Trump administration for denying coronavirus relief loans to small business owners with criminal records, arguing the restrictive policy violates the law and perpetuates systemic racial injustices by discriminating against people of color.
PPP failed to get money where it was most needed. 7 of the 10 states that received the smallest dollar amount of loans were among the 10 states with the highest number of people approved for unemployment claims as of May 23. South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming, Florida, and Nebraska received significantly more aid proportionally compared to states with higher covid-related unemployment rates like Nevada, Maine, Michigan, and Hawaii.
A federal judge is once again ordering Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to release the full amount of stimulus funding Congress set aside for Native American tribes. “The Secretary has now taken more than twice as much time as Congress directed to distribute all CARES Act funds,” Mehta wrote. Mehta’s decision blocked so-called Alaska Native Corporations (ANCs), which have vast land holdings and secure significant profits from timber and oil sales, from receiving funds, as they are not government entities.
The administration has so far failed to spend more than 75% of the American humanitarian aid that Congress provided three months ago to help overseas victims of the virus. Relief workers said they were alarmed and bewildered as to why the vast majority of the money was sitting unspent.
submitted by rusticgorilla to Keep_Track [link] [comments]

Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil get a rude awakening

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/retail-investors-who-believed-they-were-investing-in-crude-oil-get-a-rude-awakening.html

edit:
from the financial times: https://www.ft.com/content/2669d6de-a381-400b-a678-64506dc60eed
Investors who have flooded into the oil markets to bet on a rebound in crude prices are risking big losses, say commodity specialists, as the exchange traded funds they use are swept up in the current market turmoil. The United States Oil fund, the largest oil ETF known as USO, saw inflows of about $1.5bn last week, as US crude prices hit their lowest levels since the early 2000s on plunging demand.
Professional traders said retail investors, in particular, were trying to pick the turning point for oil, betting that the market will recover quickly once coronavirus-fighting measures are eased. But prices had further to fall. On Monday, West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, crashed below zero for the first time in history, dropping as low as minus $40 as traders dumped the contract for delivery in May. The June contract, where most of USO’s investments currently sit, lost 15 per cent to about $21 a barrel.
Investors are not just at risk of placing a wrong-way bet, traders say, as oil contracts do not trade like equities. Instead, they expire monthly so the underlying crude can be delivered to buyers — something specialists fear could be poorly understood by greenhorn investors. “Investment in ETFs currently harbours high risks to investors who might be tempted to passively invest in oil due to ultra-low prices,” said Michel Salden, head of commodities at Vontobel Asset Management. Losses can occur when tracker funds have to “roll” their exposure when contracts expire, Mr Salden said.
If the oil market structure shifts into “contango” — an industry term for when spot prices are trading below contracts for future delivery — then an ETF might have to sell its contracts at the lower price, then buy the next month’s contract at a higher price just to maintain its holdings. Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, said that the largest long-only oil ETFs had seen their net holdings rise by 400 per cent in the past month.
These ETFs, he warned, “are predominantly positioned at the front of the futures curve and will be exposed to rolling losses every month until the market fundamentals eventually stabilise”. That process “could take several months,” he added. USO was the fourth most actively traded ETF in the US on Monday morning, with more than half a billion dollars changing hands before lunchtime in New York, as the WTI spot price plummeted.
Investors’ move into USO is reminiscent of 2009, when many investors bought the ETF as crude prices slipped to near $30 a barrel, before almost tripling over the next 12 months as the world economy emerged from the depths of the financial crisis. Investors found their ETF returns did not match the oil-price gains, as they had lost a large chunk of their investment each month through the process of rolling contracts. The USO fund, launched in 2006, typically absorbs cash from investors when crude prices hit bottom. Inflows previously peaked in early 2009 and in early 2016, just after oil-price crashes. Since March, the number of shares outstanding in the fund has doubled as new cash comes in.
As of Friday, the fund held the equivalent of 146.5m barrels of WTI crude futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a division of CME Group. That was more than a quarter of the total open interest in the contract, exchange data showed.
Nymex market rules impose “accountability levels” of 10m barrels equivalent for most US crude futures contracts, above which traders can be ordered to reduce their position. CME declined to comment on whether it had communicated with USO. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a government regulator, has proposed a 6m-barrel limit on individual fund positions in US crude on the brink of delivery, but refrained from setting caps for positions in contracts for delivery later on.
Some traders say the USO fund is big enough to exacerbate price moves between different contract months as it rolls out of one position and into another. “That definitely can put downward pressure on the market,” said Joe Raia, a former senior executive in energy futures at Nymex and Goldman Sachs.
USO announced last Thursday that it was moving 20 per cent of the WTI contracts it holds into later months, in a move widely believed to have been influenced by the blowout in the spread between crude prices. The position “just got to the size where it makes sense to spread it out,” said John Love, chief executive of US Commodity Funds, which runs the USO fund, on Friday.
The USO next rolls its contracts on May 5 to May 8. The fund extended that process to four days early last decade to make it harder for other traders to front-run its moves. Additional reporting by Gregory Meyer in New York

submitted by smt1 to investing [link] [comments]

Why black people have a problem with Terry Crews

The problem with what Terry Crews is doing is that he's 1) addressing a false problem, and 2) giving power to people who wish to portray BLM as a violent supremacist movement.
1) The vast majority of BLM believers are calling for the equality of black people in the eyes of the country and society. Look at any picture of any BLM protest and you'll quickly see how diverse they are. Hell, in a lot of them, there are more white people than black. To act like the BLM movement isn't inclusive to all is just bullshit. There are people of all colors and creeds protesting. It's simply not a black supremacist movement or anything close. And yes, there are a small minority wishing to spread a black supremacist agenda but thats all they are, a small minority. Focusing on them like Crews is doing is no different than the people wishing to focus on the few violent protesters rather than the thousands of peaceful protesters. Black supremacy isn't even possible. We make up 13% of the population and have a fraction of the financial power of white people. How the fuck can black supremacy happen?
2) By saying what hes saying about "Black supremacy" and "Blacklivesbetter" Terry Crews is just empowering anti-BLM people. Now they have a black person they can point to and say "See even he thinks BLM can go to far" and "We have to stop BLM now before they start trying to overthrow the country" or whatever bullshit Crews thinks when he says what he says.
In the end, what Crews is doing is no different than me going to a womans power march and saying "Yeah, woman should have more power and make more money, but we have to make sure they don't eventually have more power and more money than men!" or going to a gay rights rally and saying "Yeah, you guys should have more rights, but we have to make sure you don't get more rights than heterosexuals".
See how stupid that sounds? It's how Crews sounds to us black people right now. I don't agree with calling him a coon but for some reason he feels the need to pander to a certain crowd and hedge his bets when it comes to these race issues.
submitted by nmking to CrewsCrew [link] [comments]

The best preps as an African who spent a lot of time in the village and as a true cow herding nomad with no modern day amenities and now is an American in America.

I’ve been seeing a bunch of posts about physical and mental fitness being the best prep and I think that’s absolutely true. But I’d like to offer 5 more preps that don’t require any “science”.
  1. Improve your palate. In case of shortages, people might be able to get only one or two easily found and grown foods. It’s super important to know how to prepare them, store them, and consume them. There are so many people who raise their children and themselves on highly flavored and processed foods that would probably run out. Even if you have stockpiles of the stuff, what if you have to move? The people who will survive are those who can eat anything and have kids who can do so too. Start eating a wider variety of foods now so you don’t have a kid who won’t eat anything other than hot dogs. Just a few days of starvation can lower the immunity of a child which can mean life or death.
  2. Start experimenting with different low tech storage techniques like fermenting, drying, smoking etc. cans weigh too much and are dependent a supply of metal and glass. Also foods that are smoked, dried, or fermented have added benefits that outweigh salt, sugar, and brine.
  3. Yes it’s important to be fit, but it’s probably much more important to be lean. But there’s an argument that in times of crisis, you will get conditioned in literally no time. But nothing will help you if you are an insulin dependent type 2 diabetic and don’t have insulin. Same for if you’ve worn out your knees or back or heart doing hard core exercises and getting bulked up. As far as heart health is concerned, 40 lbs of extra muscle is almost exactly as burdening on the heart as 40 lbs of extra fat. Source: I’m an Nurse Practitioner and body builders have heart attacks earlier than any other demographic. If you have weight to lose start by cutting calorie intake instead of trying to boost output with hours at the gym. Be mindful of form and start with light exercise. If you are very overweight start with walking instead of running. As you get lighter and stronger you can increase the intensity of your exercise but don't ever go up to levels that abuse your body or risk injury. All you need to cripple yourself is a torn meniscus. Walk instead of running, reduce your calorie intake instead of going to gym for hours. Lean down instead of bulking up. If you do this, you can go down on your cholesterol meds, hypertension meds, type 2 diabetes meds, anxiety meds, testosterone shots, c-pap machine, reflux meds....
Edit #1 Caveat: I am not anti muscle, this is not medical advice. its just my experience, lean muscular people survive a lot longer in calamitous situations than heavy musclebound people or fat people. And extra weight whether muscle or or fat adds to the load on your heart. if your gonna be obese though, and I can't believe I am writing this: it obviously better to have more muscle and less fat. I'm not trying to insult anyone, we live in an obese society and almost everyone is overweight Source: my eyes.
  1. If you spend 1 hour every day prepping your mind rather than buying stuff, at the end of year, you’ll have far more money in the bank, and far more knowledge in your head. This is very useful and can actually help many more people. Being knowledgeable of meditation, conflict resolution, animal husbandry, permaculture, electronics, car mechanics, masonry, low tech first aid, human and animal anatomy, etc, is far more useful than boxes of dried food. The truth is, in a truly calamitous event, guns and ammo will only help if you have an army, Food will only help if you have a fortress, and god will only help if you help yourself first. Prep your mind. Read widely. I would be very happy to provide or link some mind blowing books and Videos for your edification.
PS: I added a short list of books at the very bottom that would be a start. You can also use good reads to show you similar books if you find a book you like. This is an list of my favorite books of the past 2 years or so.
  1. Learn decision making skills. This I cannot stress enough. Just because something feels right, doesn’t mean it is. In fact the opposite is often true. Case in point, the covid pandemic. All the info a person needs is out there. There is a virus, it’s spread by droplets, and it kills a lot of people, To mitigate your risk, wear a mask, social distance, wash your hands. That’s it. But people bend over backwards to somehow make a decision to not wear the mask, to not social distance etc even though in the worst case scenario, it’s mildly inconveniencing. The best case, it saves your life. The biggest lie ever told was that there was battle for your soul. The truth is that there is a battle for your mind. Learn to understand the reasoning and science behind things, but when you can’t because of disinformation, always err on the side of saving yourself and your fellow companions. As an aside: when I was a kid, a pastor told me a story. He said “I believe in heaven and god, because if heaven doesn’t exist, then no sweat, but if it does, I believed, and will then go to heaven”, he basically hedged his bets. Hedge yours. Err on the side of survival.
I would love to hear feedback on these preps and you can ask me any questions about village and being an East African nomad, and living through many wars and civil disruptions etc. btw, all these preps cost nothing, will help you physically and financially in both the long term and the short term.
Ps: I’m also not saying that stockpiling is wrong or anything like that. Just that in all the calamitous events I have witnessed, stockpiles have never helped the people that created them. In fact I think in some ways, it hurt them because they stayed to protect them when it would have been far more prudent to leave and save themselves.
Edit #2: Thank you for at the gold. Obligatory, please donate instead. But it won't change the fact that I am very well chuffed. Thank you.
EDIT #3:Book list: This is not exhaustive, I have read many many books, but these are the most recent as well as old ones that have really made a difference to me. I tried to categorise them a bit but forgive me if I get some mixed up. Many books are by American writers so easily available. Please don't be offended,these are books I used to widen my knowledge and understanding. you don't have to like or read them lol.
Books about reasoning and/or history: 1. The 7 habits of highly effective people: powerful lessons in personal change. 2. 21 Lessons for the 21st century. Yuval Noah Harari 3. A higher loyalty: truth, lies, and leadership by James Comey 4. Educated by Tara Westover 5. Make your bed: little things that can chage your life and maybe the world by Willima Mcraven (personal hero) 6. Homo deus; I history of tomorrow by Yuval Noah Harari 7. The three musketeers by Alexandre Dumas 8. Freakonomics by Steven levitt 9. Democracy: stories from the long road to freedom by Condoleeza Rice 10. White trash: the 400 year untold history of class in America by Nancy Isenberg. 11. Enlightenment now by Steven Pinker. 12. Essentialism, the disciplined pursuit of less by Greg Mckeown 13. Thinking fast and slow by D. Kahnemann 14. Outliers, the story of success by Malcolm Gladwell 15. The world is flat by Thomas Friedman 16. The silk roads, a new history of the world 17. Destiny disrupted, a history of the world through Islamic eyes.
Books about the future- books that blew my mind 1. “Surely your joking Mr. Feynman!” Adventures of a curious character by Richard Feynman. 2. Farenheit 415 by Ray Bradbury 3. Sapiens, a brief history of human kind 4. Animal Farm by Goerge Orwell 5. 1984 by George Orwell
Books about History 1. Norse mythology by Neil Gaiman 2. Autobiographies on Mandela, Gandhi, PLO Lumumba, Obama, George Bush, Bill Clinton, Andre Jackson, Alexander Hamilton, Ben Franklin, Shaka Zulu, Genghis khan, Kubilai Khan, Memed of Turkey, the kids and emperors of rome.
Books about science 1. I contain multitudes: the microbes within us and a grander view of life 2. A brief history in time by Stephen hawking 3. The gene, an intimate history by Siddharta Mukherjee 4. Astrophysics for people in a hurry by Neil de grasse Tyson 5. The hidden life of trees, what they feel and how they communicate by peter wohlleben 6. Better, a surgeons notes on performance
Books on people, game theory, and conflict resolution.
  1. Talking to strangers: what we should know about the people we don’t know by Malcolm Gladwell
  2. The reluctant fundamentalist by Hamid Mohsin
  3. Catch 22 by Joseph Heller
  4. Smarter, faster better: the secrets of being productive in life and business by Charles Duhigg.
  5. The happiness advantage by Shawn Achor
  6. Paddle your own canoe by Nick Offerman
  7. The subtle art of not giving a fuck by Mark manson
  8. How to be an antiracist by Ibrahim X kendi
Life changing fiction: 1. Les Miserables by Victor Hugo 2. Shogun by James Clavell 3. The alchemist by Paulo Coelho 4. Old yeller by Fred Gipson- this a book I read as a child and it made me want to come to America. 5. The red pony by John Steinbeck- another American book I read as a 9 year old and it made me want to come to America so bad. 6. Lonesome dove by Larry Mc Murtry 7. Don Quixote by Cervantes 8. Tai pan by james Clavell 9. Pride and prejudice by jane austen
Books that you read because you have to learn how sociopaths think in order to recognize and avoid them: 1. The prince by machiavelli 2. The art of war by sun tzu 3. The 48 laws of power
My favorite thinkers in no order:
Atul Gawande Malcolm Gladwell Steven pinker Yuval noah Harari Deepak chopra (take with a grain of salt) Sadhguru
Youtubes I follow:
  1. Sadhguru - i'm no religious, I just find his stuff really good for the mind
  2. Easy steps- cooking
  3. Tom Bilyeu- a smarter Joe rogan
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Welcome to Gettysburg (Day One)

Day Two Here
Day Three Here
Gettysburg is by far my favorite battle of all time.
First, it is an all-American battle in an all-American war, and myself being an old school nationalist it carries significance that other battles simply don’t; I may find Austerlitz or Stalingrad nifty, but nobody there was my people.
More, it was an extraordinarily clean fight. At any point, a soldier on either side could hurl down their rifle and grab some sky and be reasonably assured of having their surrender accepted without reservation, and for that matter their captor could rely on their new POWs to trudge back to the rear under light guard in good faith. Even though much of the fighting took place in an urban environment with embedded civilians, only one civilian died in the fighting. Let me tell you, the more military history you read up on, the clearer it is that massacring civilians before, during, and after a rough fight is par for the course. One might even say that butchering unarmed men, women and children of the enemy tribe is the de facto military objective more than half the time; it might be some weird, half instinctual, proto-game theory going on: “We told them to surrender or else. They didn’t surrender, we won anyway, and now there’s gotta be an ‘or else’ to persuade the next batch of holdouts that we mean business.” In the long run, butchering the first village usually made it morelikely the next three villages would get the message and surrender without a fight, saving the invaders men, materiel, and time. Or perhaps it’s that killing civilians has always been pure bloody-mindedness. But not at Gettysburg. Gettysburg is where the American platonic ideal of soldiers fighting soldiers and leaving the civilians be actually happened.
Another aspect to the battle that fascinates me is how utterly unplanned it was. Neither army had intended to fight there, and between the scale of the brawl, the rapidity of developments, the intransigence of their subordinates, and the communications lag, neither the Confederate general Lee nor the Union general Meade had a grip on the situation at all until the second day of the battle, and neither could enact their ideal plans until the third day. It was something of a clusterfuck for both sides, and the course of the battle depended on the initiative and guts of small unit commanders with little idea of what the big picture was.
Gettysburg tends to be remembered as the turning point in the war, when it stopped being a gallant passage at arms between roughly equal powers and started being a slow, painful inevitable grind towards Union victory. This is not exactly accurate; only with years of hindsight could anybody construct a narrative that framed this fight as the turning point, for at the time Gettysburg was seen as just another grisly slaughter yard in a long series of them. Still, between this fight and the conquest of Vicksburg out west, this does appear in hindsight to be the high watermark in terms of Confederate progress towards successful seccession. Certainly it was the last time any Confederate army went on the strategic offensive. For diehard secessionists (both during the war and in the years after), this was the last hurrah before the war started being truly hopeless.
It is also, I should mention, a place of spiritual significance for me. Myself being secular humanist with a vaccination against Protestantism from my younger days, I don’t have much in the way of codified religion. But when I was a youngin’ visiting relatives out east, I got to visit the battlefield. I found myself standing in front of a monument on the field on the north end of Herbst Wood (where the right flank of Iron Brigade stood and charged on the first day of the battle). It described how a Michigan regiment of about a thousand men stood on that spot and suffered two thirds casualties over the course of the day. I read the details on the monument, and stared up at the mustachioed rifleman staring defiantly to the west.
Looking left and right, I saw more monuments every fifty yards or so in a straightish line, spreading out to mark where a human line had once stood and bled. And I turned my back on the monuments to face away, and behold, I saw an opposing line of Confederate monuments stretched out horizon to horizon about a hundred yards away. Two lines, violently opposed but unmoving; courage and horror frozen into place forever. And the world there seemed very big, and very grand, and I felt very small and unworthy. The air was at once colder and hotter than any air I’d ever felt. The wind cut through my clothing and reminded me that flesh was mortal but spirit was eternal. This was holy ground, soil consecrated by blood. Shi’ite Muslims have Karbala. Catholics have the Road to Calvary. Australian aboriginals have Uluru. I have Gettysburg.
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BACKGROUND
A brief note- I will be including maps periodically to show the progression of the fighting. These maps must be taken with a grain or three of salt. They are intended to show relations between the armies and the terrain, not to mark the exact positions or dispositions of the units, nor to show an exact proportion of numbers involved. This is because I am not an expert mapmaker, and I thank you in advance for your understanding. First, a map of the northern part of the battlefield. Note how many roads lead there, and note the high ground of Cemetery Hill and Culp's Hill to the south of the town.
The Battle of Gettysburg happened because Lee needed to go on the offensive, and Lee needed to go on the offensive because of the big picture. I shall cover the broad outline just so the significance doesn’t pass anybody by.
The Confederacy in the Spring of 1863 was in a terrible dilemma. The leadership had two urgent problems, either one of which could (if unaddressed) destroy their enterprise, and to make things worse they didn’t have the resources to solve either of them alone without a miracle.
One, the Union was fixing to shove yet another army down Richmond’s throat. Two years of failed invasions into Virginia had been brutal to both sides, but the North had immense reserves of cash, food, industrial output, and manpower with which to replenish themselves, and the South simply didn’t. The Army of Northern Virginia on which every invasion thus far had broken was underarmed, underfed, and undermanned, and if these issues were not fixed then they’d be seeing Union soldiers in the Confederate capitol before Autumn. There had already been a push that year, which Lee had staved off at Chancellorsville. There was plenty of time left before winter for a second attack.
And two, Vicksburg, the railway hub that sat on the Mississippi River, was under dire threat. The Union had already grabbed New Orleans at the south end and pushed north up the river, and had been pushing south down the river since day one of the war, but Vicksburg prevented the whole river from falling in to Union hands. Vicksburg alone let the South shift resources and information from its Western half to its Eastern half. Losing it could be a death blow. The garrison of Vicksburg was also underarmed, underfed, and undermanned.
The fresh crops taken off the farm and the fresh host of new recruits also taken off the farm were middling at best. Even throwing all the resources they had at either problem and letting the other develop as it would might mean losing on both fronts. Splitting the resources in half to prop up both didn’t seem promising either. Lee, being something of a strategist, developed a third option. There was no point (he reasoned) in trying to prop up Vicksburg at this point- it would take weeks to shift reinforcements that far west, and by then it would be midsummer. If the siege lasted that long, either the garrison would fold or disease would rip through the Yankee army and drive it back home, as it had the last two years running. In either scenario, further support would affect nothing. Therefore, he proposed a bold plan- don’t sit around waiting to get hit in the face. Invade north. Take the fight onto their turf.
The more the Confederate leadership considered it, the better it sounded. Northern land hadn’t been ravaged like Virginia had- it would be easy to live off of the enemy’s food for once, thus lessening the headache of their constant supply problems. It was also an election year, and the anti-war Democrats were raging at the ocean of blood and gold being wasted on bringing States back into the fold who very clearly wanted to go their own way. One good, solid victory on Northern soil could tip the balance, drive home the point that that war was unwinnable. Get the Black Republican warmonger Lincoln kicked out of the White House, get a reasonable Democrat in, and next year they just might get a negotiated peace that would lead in time to true and recognized independence.
To which end-
Lee snaked his newly reinforced army of about 75,000 men up through the Shenandoah Valley, using the mountain range to mask his movements instead of using to well-worn direct route that the Union was camped on. He would end up north of the bulk of the Army of the Potomac, simultaneously threatening Washington D.C., Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Philadelphia, which for a guy trying to score a symbolic victory to discourage the enemy voters put him in a pretty nice spot.
Lincoln freaked out, told Hooker and his Army of the Potomac to go out and beat Lee, to utterly destroy his army, and also not leave any weak point undefended, which are just the kind of orders one enjoys receiving. Hooker, having a bit of an ego and a poor history of getting his ass kicked by Lee, got into a feud with Lincoln’s advisors and impulsively offered his resignation as Commander of the Army of the Potomac following some stupid spat with the bean counters back in Washington. Lincoln called his bluff and fired him three days before the battle, putting General Meade in charge of the whole damn army with almost no prep time.
I should cut the narrative here to cast moral aspersions right quick. The Union were the good guys, and the Confederates were the villains. That said, the North made for really terrible heroes, and the South had more than its fair share of virtues. This was not a grand crusade of freedom-loving Yankees tearing down the moral abomination of human bondage. This was a brutal, no holds barred death struggle between the efficient new urban Industrial Revolution and the rural Cavalier latifundias. Only a smallish segment of New England Puritans and bleeding heart Quakers hated slavery on moral grounds- the rest of the North either hated it on financial grounds, didn’t give a fuck one way or another, or were actively supporting racial slavery. And on the flip side, most Southerners who fought in the war perceived quite accurately that outsiders were coming into their world to demand submission, and had decided to give these invaders the William Wallace treatment. This is a normal and admirable response that every healthy society should have in its toolbox, and in my not-even-slightly humble opinion it is a damn shame that so many people endured so much agony in support of so un-American a cause.
For you see, when Lee’s army reached Pennsylvania, they kidnapped every black person they could find, free or not, and sent them all south in chains. There was no attempt to ascertain their status by some legal due process, no splitting of hairs. The bare skeleton of Confederate ideology, the great Truth that would have snuffed out by continued political loyalty to the Union, had been that all men were not created equal. To be more precise, men had white skin, and anyone with black skin was not a man and did not have the rights of man. As such, anyone with black skin was to be sold into slavery and threatened with torture and death if they refused to labor in the cotton fields. The army that invaded the North was, in practice, the biggest slave-hunting gang that had ever set foot on American soil.
The side wearing grey were staunch defenders of a country based on the Ideal of Ethnic Supremacy, and the side wearing blue were fighting for a country based on the Ideal of Equality. There were a million nagging features of material reality in the South and the North that challenged both of these Ideals, but there were no Ideals to challenge these Ideals, save only for each other. We know that this is true, because as the war shifted away from a Federal attempt to rein in wayward states to an all out assault on the institution of slavery, more and more Northerners balked at the idea of dying to set niggers free; men who had fought for years to bring the rebels into the fold again threw down their rifles and went home in disgust after they heard of the Emancipation Proclamation. And as it became clearer that poor whites who never owned slaves were expected to die for plantation owners’ right to stay rich, fewer and fewer Southerners were willing to jump into the meat grinder feet first; many of them deserted to go home and form Unionist bushwhacker gangs instead. Speaking of the draft, a higher percentage of southerners dodged the Confederate draft than in Vietnam, yet Vietnam is remembered as a deeply unpopular war while the Lost Cause has painted the South as a unified bloc striving as one against the Yankee oppressor.
Also, the Confederacy had a draft imposed upon the states by its federal government. So, yeah, State's Rights. Tell me how that worked out.
To reiterate. Both sides are not the same. We are rooting for the Union. Slavery. Etc.
Pushing on-
The two armies surged northward, on parallel tracks with Lee on the west side of the Appalachians and Meade on the east side. Being critically low on recon drones and spy satellites, the only ways to find the enemy army was to send guys out on horseback to physically look at them before riding back, and to talk to locals whether they’d seen anyone wearing the other team’s uniform recently. Clouds of skirmishers, cavalrymen, and small detachments of infantrymen from either side scattered themselves in all directions, straining to catch a glimpse of the other army. The first side to locate the enemy, amass sufficient force, and maneuver against them would probably win, without regard for right or wrong.
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JULY 1st, 1863
Early Morning
General John Buford had a 2,500 strong brigade of cavalrymen patrolling southern Pennsylvania, being one of dozens of detachments sent out to find the enemy army. Using human intelligence from locals in Gettysburg, he learned that there was a column of rebel infantry marching down the Chambersburg Pike.
And indeed there was. Advance scouts from Buford’s brigade made visual contact with a column marching south towards Gettysburg. The ball was now rolling.
The story goes that the Confederates were looking for new shoes and heard that there was a stockpile in Gettysburg. As far as I can tell, this is a baseless legend- inspired by the true fact that the rebel army didn’t have enough shoes, but baseless nonetheless. The three Confederate commanders marching towards Gettysburg (Archer and Davis with a brigade apiece and Heth as division commander coordinating them), were simply doing what their counterpart was doing- reconnaissance in force, hoping to develop a lead for the rest of the army to follow. 7,000 infantry under Archer and Davis were about to pick a fight with 2,500 cavalrymen under Buford. The currents of this morning fight would provide the grooves for the next three days to follow.
Buford’s men fought as dragoons; the horse let you scoot around to where you need to go, but you got off it and fought on foot. They Union cavalry broke into tiny little four man teams to bloody the approaching Confederates’ noses. The terrain was a bushwhacker’s paradise- plenty of rocks and trees to hide behind, and plenty of low, rolling hills to speed off behind to break line of sight. One man would hold the horses while the other three crouch-ran forward under cover to pop off rounds into the enemy column from the sides of the road. When the enemy infantry redeployed from a fast moving but harmless column formation into a slow moving but dangerous line, the three shooters would run back to their buddy to mount up and retreat to a new position.
The cavalrymen were outnumbered nearly three to one, and their carbines had less range and power than the rebel rifles; then again, the terrain was working for them and their breechloading carbines could shoot much faster than the enemy’s muzzleloading long rifles. It was very close to being an fair fight, as long as the cavalry could stay mobile and keep their distance. Buford and Heth both had unclear, contradictory orders- “Push forward aggressively to locate the enemy, but do not enter into a general engagement until we know what we’re up against.” It was an order that must have made sense in the tent when Lee and Meade sent their own versions off. You wouldn’t want to force a battle until you knew the enemy’s location and disposition and the terrain you were going to be standing on, any more than you’d want bet it all on a poker hand before looking at your cards. But to the guys on the front line, it meant “charge forward, but do not charge forward. Attack, but do not engage. Show some initiative, but don’t pick a real fight.” Heth decided they were up against a skeleton crew of skirmishers, and he had orders to check out Gettysburg. He send riders back with a quick report and a request for reinforcements. Buford decided that if the whole damn rebel army was heading his way, he needed to delay their advance for as many hours as he could to give the rest of the Union army time to get to Gettysburg- the high ground south of the town looked like ideal terrain to fight from and he wanted his buddies to get there before the rebels. He too sent riders back with calls for help.
And meanwhile, the murderous, hazardous stalking of the rebel column continued as it trudged towards Gettysburg.
Meanwhile, in the Rear with the Gear
Imagine running a marathon- 26 miles and a bit from start to finish. That’s how spread out a Civil War army is, from vanguard to rear guard. You can’t really concentrate 75,000-100,000 people together that closely. Disease starts killing people off really fast, feeding everyone is a headache, and if you have to march out, the lead element will march all day before stopping for the night, while the rear element hasn’t even left camp yet. It’s unwieldy. So they all spread out to grab some real estate and forage easier and not choke on each others’ dust and crap.
The riders from the Chambersburg Pike were spreading the word through the marathon length of the armies. Units were halting, turning around. Captains and colonels and generals were consulting maps to figure out what roads to take to get south or north to Gettysburg from where they were now. Regiments were putting their heads to together to figure out whose company oughtta go in what order.
The movements were slow and and ungainly and awkward, but they were starting up.
Mid Morning to Noon
The rolling hills on either side of the Chambersburg Pike stopped at McPherson’s Ridge, a grand place to make a stand- plenty of cover, steep incline. In any case, there wasn’t much further to retreat to. Archer and David pushed the cavalrymen, Archer on the south side of the road and Davis on the north. Thoroughly annoyed infantrymen backed up on the Pike behind them, eager to get at the enemy but without frontage to occupy.
Buford dug in on McPherson’s Ridge, and the full force of Heth’s division slammed into him. Denied their mobility by the necessity of holding territory, the fair fight turned into a meat grinder for the dismounted cavalrymen. When Confederate artillery set up on Herr’s Ridge, it turned into a bloodbath.
Buford, at last, got in contact with somebody who outranked him. General John Reynolds, second in command of the whole Union army, rode ahead of his division to get eyes on the situation.
The two struck a deal in the middle of a firefight. Buford promised to hold to the last man, and Reynolds promised to reinforce him. It was an exercise in trust; if Buford’s men held firm and Reynolds let them down, they’d be swamped and slaughtered to a man, and if Buford’s detachment broke and scattered, Reynolds’ reinforcements would march directly into a line of hills held by an entrenched enemy force of equal size. Failure on either side would be fatal. Reynolds rode south again, leaving Buford and his dwindling cavalrymen to fend off 10% of the Confederate army all alone.
Meanwhile, Buford’s thin line was cracking. Outnumbered, outgunned, and unable to advance or retreat... That which was inevitable to start with was happening now. Davis’ brigade was pressing against Oak Ridge on the Union right, and Archer's was taking Herbst Woods tree by tree. Buford’s men were giving ground they couldn’t afford to lose. Confederate artillery was blasting giant holes in the ranks of the defenders.
That’s when the relief came- two fresh brigades of infantry coming up the Emmitsburg road, under generals Cutler and Meredith. Cutler got there first, taking up positions on Oak Ridge and straddling either side of the Pike with cannons. Their massive volleys disrupted Confederate momentum and silenced some of the rebels’ big guns as everyone scrambled for cover. Grateful and exhausted cavalrymen sidled off to the flanks to safety. Meredith’s brigade is still lagging behind- that’s the problem with columns, only the guys in front can do anything.
If Buford and Reynolds expected everything to be right in the world once reinforcements arrived, they were very much mistaken. Those men out there attacking up Oak Ridge were some of the finest infantrymen in the world- dedicated, disciplined, contemptuous of death. They did not stop being efficient killers just because they now fought peers instead of the hornet-like cavalry skirmishers. Cutler’s brigade was facing a small tidal wave of battle-maddened Southern veterans, and had no time to dig in and situate themselves before the moment of impact. Davis’ men ripped into them like a pack of starving wolves. Cutler’s men fell back to safety on the top of Oak Ridge. In pieces.
Meanwhile, Meredith’s brigade was finally in position to retake Herbst Woods on the south side of the road.
Now, Meredith’s brigade were the absolute elite of the Union army. They were the grizzled veterans, the old crew, the best drilled, the most experienced, the hardest of the hard. They were nicknamed the Iron Brigade, and the Black Hat Brigade, because they were authorized to wear dashing black foraging caps to signify their status as the best of the best. With their comrades north of the road falling back, it was imperative that the Black Hat Brigade protect their left flank. To which end, Reynolds frantically snapped orders for them to line up and charge Archer’s men who were occupying Herbst Wood.
Their charge was met by a storm of musket fire that churned the Iron ranks into blood and guts. But this was the Black Hat Brigade. For them, taking ten percent casualties in a single minute was just another Tuesday. They got in close to the rebel line to return the volleys with a vengeance, and then charged with the bayonet. Archer’s men saw the distinctive black hats come for them through the musket-smoke. For the first time, they realized that these were no mere cavalry skirmishers, no half-assed militia company facing them. The best of the best of the Army of the Potomac was coming at them at terrifyingly close range. Archer’s men cracked and scattered. The ones who stood firm, died. The ones who threw down their rifles and grabbed sky were allowed to live as prisoners. The ones who ran, lived, but found the Iron Brigade hot on their heels. Meredith’s elites carved through Archer’s brigade like it wasn’t even there.
Reynolds was a good leader. A great one, in fact. He was decisive, experienced, competent. Many thought he should have gotten command instead of Meade. As his men retook Herbst Wood, he turned behind him to check on how close reinforcements were, some rebel rifleman did his cause a world of good, and shot Reynolds in the back of the head.
Now the situation got pretty weird- Davis’ brigade had kicked the shit out of Cutler’s brigade and was pursuing them on the north side of the road, and the Iron Brigade had kicked the shit out of Archer’s brigade and was pursuing them on the south side of the road. Neither victor was aware of what had happened across from them, and soon enough they would pass each other by almost touching the edges of their lines. The first one to figure out what was happening would get to win.
As it so happened, General Doubleday (in command now that Reynolds was dead) saw the danger and the opportunity first. He broke off an Iron regiment from his reserve to swoop in and protect the flank just in time, setting them up in a defensive stance facing the road. That regiment was joined by another broken off from the Iron assault, and yet another from Cutler’s brigade, who had seen the maneuvering and joined in on its own initiative. It was like a ballet, all three regiments coalescing into a single front facing north across the road, as though they’d spent the last week rehearsing. Under their protection, the rest of the Black Hats gave chase to their prey.
When Davis finally turned and attacked, they were chopped down by a mass of highly accurate fire from the newly entrenched men. Confederates died by the dozens and were maimed by the score. As they reloaded, the Black Hats were astonished to find that the whole Confederate brigade vanish into thin air, like magic. The firing stopped; no more targets. It was bizarre.
The three regiments advanced cautiously. And were gutted by a close range surprise volley by the hidden Confederates as they tried to scale the fences on either side of the Pike.
It turns out that there was a cut in the side of road, deep enough for a man to jump down into with only his head able to peek out. Davis’ men had leapt into it as a source cover when the firefight started and found it was a grand place to shoot out of. But it was also a death trap. Once the Union regiments figured it out, they got in close enough to fire blindly down at point blank range into the milling mass of men.
Davis’ men surrendered, thousands of them all at once. Unable to move, unable shoot back, it was really the only choice. And with that, the first round of Gettysburg was over. Oak Ridge and Herbst Wood had held, and about 150,000 odd soldiers were converging on Gettysburg to shift the tide of war this way and that.
AFTERNOON
The rest of the first day was not free of drama, and heroics, and mass suffering. But it was free of surprises. The iron laws of physics had decreed that more Confederate units would be on hand for the fighting in the afternoon, and so it was. Fresh rebel troops swept down from the north and from the west, relieving their exhausted comrades and preparing themselves to assault Oak Ridge and Herbst Woods. Fresh Union troops arrived from the south to reinforce what they had and to extend their line out east, protecting their right flank and screening off the town itself.
Hours passed without a shot being fired. Everybody was reorganizing themselves, resupplying, carting the wounded to the rear to let the surgeons saw their shattered limbs off. Two small things happened that delivered a Confederate victory on day one, and a Union victory on day three. Union General Barlow pushed his brigade out to occupy Blocher's hill, and Union General Steinwehr plopped two of his brigades on top of Cemetery Hill. The first created a huge gap in the Union right, and the second secured the invaluable high ground for the rest of the battle.
Meanwhile, three Confederate divisions set themselves up for a concerted attack- Heth would press into Herbst Wood on the Union left, Rodes would assault Oak Ridge at the center, and Early would swoop down the Harrisburg road to threaten the Union right. When the big push came at around 2 p.m., it was badly organized and mismanaged. Southern commanders couldn't get it together and attack at the same time. Individual units charged at Oak Ridge alone, like a mob of Hollywood henchmen attacking the hero only to be smacked around one by one. Cutler's men didn't just fight them off; it was closer to mass murder. General O'Neal's brigade swooped down off of Oak Hill only to be cut down by musketry and cannon fire, and they did it without O'Neal, because O'Neal stayed in the rear while his men died. When O'Neal's brigade fell back having suffered heavy losses, Cutler shifted his men to greet the new threat from Iverson's brigade, who also charged without their commander. Iverson's men marched in parade perfect order across open ground, without so much as a molehill for cover. The story goes that during the assault, Iverson looked out from safety and saw half his men lying down on the ground. Iverson was pissed off because he thought his men were surrendering. In fact, he was watching his brigade die in droves.
The issue wasn't morale. The Confederate troops were eager to get at the enemy. The problem was purely organizational in nature. The men in charge of telling people what to do were simply too confused and disoriented to work out the solution in real time. While O’Neal and Iverson were getting bloodied, Barlow’s men on Blocher Hill were getting slaughtered. Barlow’s desire to hold the high ground on the defense was understandable- high ground being a grand place to fight from- but he was about one mile ahead of any friendly units. This meant that it was trivially easy to flank and destroy his brigades.
Georgia men under generals Early and Rodes linked up to flank and destroy Barlow’s isolated brigades. A thick stream of filthy, bloody, and terrified Union men flowed back to the town of Gettysburg, leaving a gaping hole in the Union line and spreading their panic like the plague. Victorious Confederates whooped and hollered. As the men to the north of town trade massacres- the failed assault on Oak Ridge being roughly balanced by the disastrous dissolution of Barlow’s brigades- Heth finally attacked the Iron Brigade still occupying Herbst Wood in the west. He’d been delaying it all afternoon, stymied by the contradictory orders from Lee. Lee, who was several miles away and not at all in touch with the situation, still wanted to avoid a general engagement. But now, Heth has been let off the chain to avenge Archer’s brigade.
Heth’s full division attacked Herbst Wood. It was a slow, hot, gory fight. The attacking rebels are aggressive, but also methodical and well-organized. The Black Hats made them pay for every tree they seized. But there’s only one outcome for a fight like this.
The Iron Brigade has the ghastly honor of having the highest casualty ratio of any Civil War brigade, North or South. Out of the 1,885 men in their ranks that morning, 1,153 (61%) were be dead or maimed by nightfall on the first day. The fates of individual units from within the brigade are even more gruesome- in the 2nd Wisconsin regiment, 397 out of 496 (80%) were killed or wounded. But despite the horrific losses, they didn’t break. They gave ground slowly and in good order, but they gave ground nonetheless. Iron does not break, but it does bend.
By late afternoon, the dominoes fell as they were always going to. With the debacle at Blocher’s Knoll, any hope the Union had to hold the right was lost. The Black Hats were being ground into sawdust on the left. And Rodes has finally gotten his brigades to charge at the same time, overwhelming Cutler’s defense.
Every Union man was running now, some in a blind panic, some withdrawing in good order like professionals.
The open field battle turned into urban warfare as the Confederates chased the Union army through the streets of Gettysburg. Companies blocked the streets to hold off the enemy advance long enough for the comrades to scamper. Marksmen played sniper games in the windows, either shooting men in the back as they ran away or ambushing overly aggressive platoons, depending on the color of their uniform.
The Union men were desperate to reach Cemetery Hill, south of the town. High ground and the reinforcements already stationed there promised safety. The Confederates were just as desperate to catch them first and seize that invaluable terrain for themselves.
Nightfall
A great deal of “woulda coulda shoulda” ink has been spilled over the orders that Lee gave to General Ewell, the man in charge of Rodes and Early: “Take Cemetery Hill if practical”. But Ewell saw two brigades with a lot of artillery standing on top of what appeared to be a natural fortress designed by God to repel infantry, and his men were exhausted to boot. Ewell decided it was not practical, and so did not try. Just one of those things, I expect.
In any case, the day was a Confederate victory. Every spot on the map the Confederate troops wanted to go, they had went. They had crushed all resistance, had even gone toe to toe with the cream of the Army of the Potomac and won. Their enemies were in flight before them.
There was, possibly, a certain amount of disquiet because the enemy had merely been driven from one ridge into another ridge, one even steeper and with more cover than the last. And rumor had it the rest of the Army of the Potomac was coming at them.
But that was a problem for the next day.
submitted by mcjunker to TheMotte [link] [comments]

[PHO Sunday] - Youth Guard to intervene in Argo* v. Argo* Case

♦ Topic: Article: Youth Guard to intervene in Argo* v. Argo* Case In: Boards ► Parahumans ► Villains User: Solemnly_Swear_#@$% Posted on May 17th, 2012:
[Article] - Masque
You might know this young lady from the early-2011 scandal, when she suggested she would appear in a 'villainesses show skin' publication in a major magazine, igniting a firestorm of controversy. Some of that controversy was alleged to be manufactured, with bot accounts paid to support and spread her position of 'every body type, every circumstance', arguing her body was perpetually small and compact due to her explosive power, and every major publication denied any involvement or plans to do a 'villainesses show skin' issue, with some citing the disaster at L.J.M. photography in 2007 as a reason why they wouldn't.
But that's not what we're talking about today. It's certainly been talked about enough, and that may be the aim of Bambina, a villain noted for her focus on 'the Blacklist', a site for sponsoring, betting on, and getting exclusive access or privileges from villains, frequently shut down or forced to relocate by law enforcement. Controversy and media attention help villains climb the rankings, which means more money, and this is something virtually everyone, supporter or detractor alike, would say Bambina excels at.
Only those who closely followed the controversy to its arguable conclusion saw the first Argo* v. Argo* case. It wasn't widely publicized, there was no bot army to push one side or stir up the controversy, and by the time anything newsworthy happened, people were sick of the controversy. Bambina's mother and manager tried for conservatorship of her eighteen year old daughter, they went to court, last names changed to protect identities, and the PRT was enlisted to assist Mrs. Argo*. Bambina's substantial financial earnings to that point were held hostage. The ending wasn't exciting; in the back and forth of filings and disputes, the tax authorities found something to latch onto, accounts were frozen, and authorities found cause to seize some of the illicit funds. The court case continued for two more weeks, while Bambina pulled several heists, robberies, and stunts to earn the funds to keep it going, and then it petered out.
Bambina had other things to focus on, as the distraction had seen her rankings slip, and the funds were seized, depleted by legal costs, or frozen.
Jump forward to May of this year. Fresh out of PRT custody following her actions against the Los Vegas PRT, Bambina had a fractious split with her young teammates, Starlet, August Prince, and Tantrum, one of whom who alleged that the villain was being controlling. In the back and forth that followed, one of whom retaliated, alleging she had spent tens of thousands of dollars to hire people to hack the 'blacklist'. Bambina would allege this was done by her mother, who pointed her finger at Bambina, in turn. The stakes, it seemed, were high, as many villains put a lot of stock in the Blacklist.
None of this is especially unusual, up until the new court filings. Alleging her daughter was a risk to the public and her health, Mrs. Argo* filed again for conservatorship of her daughter. Her daughter, now armed with a surprising array of resources soon after the depletion of her accounts and stay in jail, made a quick and incisive reply.
At the same time Bambina filed her reply and completed the paperwork to answer Mrs. Argo*'s filing, the Youth Guard made statements on the subject, stating they would be taking action in coordination.
The Youth Guard, a citizen organization with close ties to the PRT and Wards programs, has long been established as defenders of children in costume. Their goal, they say, is to target the management companies that Mrs. Argo* worked so closely with, talent agencies they say are grooming youths such as Bambina (prior to the young woman turning eighteen), Starlet, and Tantrum. With Bambina's input and help, they say, they can identify patterns of corruption and abuse. When contacted for comment, they told us that more details are to follow, but to other publications, they've named incidents such as youths being urged to work long hours and being given drugs to help them stay up for the late-night activities, dangerous mercenary work, minors being placed in close proximity to murderers and worse in Blacklist publicity events, and management companies paying for accommodations, keeping minors separated from their parents.
Detractors are already saying that Bambina is a problematic name to attach to this endeavor. The villainess is not just steeped in controversy, but seeks it out. Mrs. Sherita Minnick, representing Ms. Argo, suggested that the initial threads of this project with the infighting with Starlet were suspicious, as Starlet and Bambina have already mended fences and are teamed up again. They say the Youth Guard is tainting its name in one of its first-ever actions in support of young villains.
For what it's worth, Bambina isn't on the Blacklist anymore, as her cooperation with the Youth Guard essentially attacks it, but on two similar sites, unnamed for legal reasons, she's sitting at coveted #1 and #3 spots.
submitted by Wildbow to Parahumans [link] [comments]

DIX, GEX and VIX, an analysis by a degenerate

DIX, GEX and VIX, an analysis by a degenerate
Hello everyone, i just wanted to share my attempted at a semi informed DD.
The Dark Index (DIX) and Gamma Exposure (GEX) have been a subject of debate in the discussion room lately. So i thought that it would be a decent to inform and provide my personal opinion on their movements. If this has already been posted then I apologize.
Here is the squeeze metrics link. Here is also another great form of information, it is more helpful in my opinion. It highlights everything that you would need to know about dark pools.
I also want to note that we are in unprecedented times, the government is buying anything and everything trying to keep the market afloat. Trump is telling us that we will be reopened by two weeks ago. Oil is in complete free fall. Oh yeah and the pandemic. It turns out that the Brazilian president was wrong about his people being immune to the corona virus, which is scary because if it gets into the bat population in brazil it can mutate a lot faster. Any who, lets jump right in shall we?
The Dark Index (DIX)
The Dark Index is a dollar weighted measure of the dark pool indicator. It tracks the dark pool short volume for components of the S&P. It is interesting to note that short volume is actually investors buying the underlying stock. So a high percentage (over 45%) for DIX indicates that the market sentiment is stocks only go up and there is more short volume than non short. This is confusing yes but let me try to explain it.
I am the MM and I want to make money today so i tell my HFT algo to create a spread for SPCE. It looks at current market and says Bid: $16.95 and Ask: $17.07. The spread is $0.12. The MM is offering to sell at 17.07 and to buy at 16.95. An investor A puts in an order to buy a share of SPCE at 17.07 and investor B puts an order to sell at 16.95. The MM will place a SHORT sale at 17.07, sell the share of SPCE at 17.07 then instantly turn around and buy a share back at 16.95 from investor B to satisfy its short sale. That is why investors buying are considered short volume.
So as of right now the DIX is at 43.98%. This means that only 43.98% of daily volume is short volume, aka people buying. Historically a rising DIX (yes that is funny laugh it up) indicates market sentiment is bullish while visa versa means bearish. In this case we are looking to get to see a further deterioration of DIX into the 42% to 38% range to see a drastic pull down.
Here is the White Paper they provide for more info.
The DIX has been in a gradual decline ever since we had out totally normal totally legal run up 30% in the S&P. Now we can move on to GEX or the gamma exposure.
Gamma Exposure (GEX)
This has to do with MM delta hedging against calls and puts. This can introduce a put squeeze which is essentially a short squeeze.
If a MM sells you a SPY 240 5/1 (RIP) it will immediately calculate the delta of that option and hedge accordingly. So lets say your OTM SPY put that you were promised was going to print tendies only has a delta of .20 (20%) then the MM is going to go out and short 20 shares of SPY to hedge against the risk. The shorting of those 20 SPY shares pushes the price down further and what happens when it turns out you were wrong about your SPY 240 put? SPY sits at 283 and the delta of your put has gone down to .10 (10%) so the MM no longer needs to hold 20 shorted positions so it buys 10 to keep a delta neutral portfolio.
A low GEX means that the options market is more geared towards puts. Yes i said it all you gay bears, but it is still sitting at 1,264M. But only 6 days ago it was at 6,412M so this is a steep drop off over the past couple days. A high GEX implies that MMs are hedging with ITM or ATM options because they are expecting a change in the current price direction. A negative GEX, like we had starting on February 24th of -773M (aka the real start to the whole downtrend) implies a put squeeze of 773 million shares for every +1% movement in SPY. (The same idea applies to calls buy in the opposite fashion) This creates volatility in the market.
Volatility (VIX)
THIS IS NOT TA ON VIX, im not telling you to buy VIX calls every time it dips below 50 that is actually retarded, but.
It is not a coincidence that VIX jumped 46% the same day that GEX went negative. When GEX is high it insinuates low volatility, and when it is low is implies there will be. As a bearish outlook and put heaving options market drag SPY down it creates panic. There are also people buying share as it is falling thinking they are getting a sweet deal on SPY when it is at 275 because it is only a pandemic right? stocks only go up? All while this is going on MMs had been writing puts and delta hedging appropriately. So SPY go up intraday 2% that is about 1,546 million shares of SPY getting bought to adjust for delta changing on Feb 24th. Then we degenerates buy more puts because basically they are on sale and the cycle continues until the MM can manipulate the market enough to get their gamma exposure down to decrease volatility. Here is an article that explains why we were stuck in that 270 to 285 window for like two weeks.
On the day that VIX peaked at around 83, the GEX was at -2,170M and DIX was at 37.8%. I am not saying that a direct copy of those levels for GEX or DIX will duplicate a record high volatility day but it will help.
When VIX rose 20% from friday april 17th to tuesday april 21st, the most recent notable spike in volatility, DIX and GEX were both on the decline.
Why do I care about this information?
The DIX went from 51.2% to 44.9% in the days leading up to that volatility spike and decline in the S&P500. It seems that DIX is a precursor to what direction the S&P500 will move in the coming days. So it should be known that it is coming off two year record highs and the only time DIX reached those heights again was in admits the tiny crash in the beginning of 2016 and a fallout or correction in 2011.
On the other hand, GEX seems to mirror the S&P leading into down turns, it only leads the curve by a day or two. Please note that this part is just done by looking at the graph and seeing trends. But nonetheless, if you are a gay bear you want this index to keep falling.
Here are the GEX similarities between the last crash and now for the gay bears.
GEX trying to rise then getting swatted back down implying turbulent days are to come. Just from eye balling the day to day change in SPY and GEX it looks like GEX leads a little and SPY lags. So look for another big drop in GEX, hopefully even go negative.

GEX similar patterns before down turns
Also another thing to note, like i said high GEX usually leaded to a pivot in the current direction of the market in the following time period. GEX was at 6,412M and below are times it has been above or at that in the past two years.
It will be very interesting to see what dark liquidity things of this earnings week for tech and basically half of the S&P500.

GEX similarities between crashes at heights
Similarities between DIX in the first crash and now for the gay gay bears.
  • It is at its lowest in the last 20 trading days
  • last time it was at 43.9% was march 11th aka that legendary -9.5% day
  • its called DIX
Thank you for listening, my aderall has worn off and I am going to take the dog out.
TLDR: If this trend continues then it is possible to have another leg down here soon. Be vigilant and check this index a few times a week just to see where the sentiment in dark pools is. Right now I am holding $SPY 6/19 and 9/18 puts.
Also this is not financial advice, I am just sharing my thinking behind my betting my money. If i missed anything or mis explained something then please let me know.
submitted by golfwangthesenuts to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

[Serious] On the oil demand crisis and why you should buy tanker calls this week, but why $NAT is a meme you should dump

[Serious] On the oil demand crisis and why you should buy tanker calls this week, but why $NAT is a meme you should dump
Final edit (05-06) - Sorry that this went tits up for everyone. I lost most of my $20k as well. As you saw, $STNG massacred earnings by over 50% on EPS, strong revenue beat, and really strong guidance as predicted...then went down 10%. What I didn't understand, apparently, was that the market doesn't give a fuck about that in the tanker space...no more DD for me, back to meme stocks I guess.
Monday morning edit: Offer up your wives if you got in this morning before the pump. Take some profits.
Okay idiots, I'm going to drop some actual useful DD for you. tl;dr and positions at the top, because I know that for the majority of you, "Fedex parked in front of White House, buy calls", is as sophisticated DD as you can handle. This is a long post, so for those of you who actually want to understand why you're taking a position and learn about a commodity, read on; for those of you who don't, fuck off.
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OVERALL TL;DR

Tankers not only begin earnings this week but said earnings will be the best they have been in at least 5 years, if not the last decade, due to all-time-high tanker rates that began spiking in mid-March. Rates are so high that, say, companies with clean LR2 tankers currently run a spot price of 8x the 5 year historical average and a single 2 month spot voyage is enough to be profitable on the entire year. Make bets on tanker companies that are trading below their NAV, will post strong FCF, were well positioned for the spike in prices, have large fleets, and have the right types of ships. $NAT is a risky stock because it's actually the among the worst across every single one of these dimensions of any tanker company.
WHY NAT IS A MEME:
Let me draw you an analogy:
WSB is a class in school, and you've all decided not to be homosexual for a day. NAT is a girl in the class. Now that you're not homos, you all start sending NAT dick pics and showering her with attention, assuming that she is extremely high value. However, in your autistic haste, you all forgot to look around and fail to realize that there are 15 other girls in the classroom; moreover, they are all way hotter than NAT. NAT is now overvalued and many of you are too attached to admit you had no idea what the fuck you were doing and are - now.
POSITIONS:
I like EURN and STNG, but there are many other viable tanker plays you could look at. Check out TNK. DSSI, DHT, FRO etc; DYOR.
Low Risk Position Examples
  • EuroNav ($EURN) $12.50C 6/15
  • Scorpio Tankers ($STNG) $23C 6/15
Moderate Risk Positions
  • $EURN $12.50C 5/15
  • $STNG $25C 5/15
Higher Risk Positions
  • $EURN $15C 5/15
  • $STNG $30C 5/15
Legendary Autistic Risk Positions
  • $EURN $17.50C 5/15
  • $STNG $35C 5/15
  • $NAT, any calls
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SECTION 1: Overview on Oil Demand Crisis

If you understand oil demand destruction and contango, skip ahead to section 2. However, based on the fact that people continue to pile in on USO and UCO calls and leaps under the justification of "hurr durr oil must go up, it's so cheap", and half of you are still bagholding $NAT, I assume 75%+ of you are retarded.
Many of you still probably have no idea what's happening with oil and why it's fucked long-term. The tl;dr here is that even with OPEC+'s historical cuts, we're still drastically oversupplied. The problem with oil is it's not your meme SPY calls that are in the cloud; oil is a physical product and when you trade USO, you're trading (theoretically) on receiving delivery of oil. We are almost completely out of oil storage already.
You may ask, well u/safuros, if that's true, why don't we turn off the wells? Markets naturally handle supply and demand. Oil production isn't that simple. The reason every country is sandbagging and trying to get other countries to cut oil is that there's a game theory element in play, as well as an oil well intrinsic function issue.
Once conventional oil wells reduce their production to roughly 50-60% of output, they cannot go any lower without risking damaging the wells, which are extraordinarily expensive to get the rights to drill on/lease and is like risking a gallon of water when you've only taken a sip. Thus, the only option to reduce further is to entirely stop production and cap the well, and then, assuming your lease on the well hasn't lapsed by the time you can re-open it, uncap it, both of which are extraordinarily expensive options that are also time-consuming.
Therefore, many oil companies would rather just sell at a crappy rate, because that's still a long-term better play than turning off; you're paying for the well either way. Game-theory wise, why the fuck should you be the well to turn off, if other's aren't? Add in the fact that everyone cheats on oil production cuts and the Saudis and Russians are trying to fuck each other as well as US shale, and you've got a nice oil crisis. Per comments, note that US oil production is easier to spin up and down than overseas oil, but that doesn't really matter because we can't stop everyone else from producing and we aren't going to bear the entire burden ourselves.
This leads to the USO/UCO shit show and negative WTI price. Normally, futures holders offload their contracts to buyers who intend to actually take physical delivery as the option expiration date draws near. However, because there is no storage and no demand, none of the typical buyers actually wanted to buy, so you had a bunch of tendie seeking autists desperately trying to offload their contracts so that they wouldn't have 5 dumptrucks of oil barrels delivered to their homes and be completely fucked, such that they were willing to pay people (i.e. negative price) to take their contracts. As for contango, well, google it.
Finally, this problem isn't going away any time soon because unless you're so truly deluded as to believe that we'll not only have a V shaped re-opening in terms of social, commercial, and consumer behavior, but that fuel consumption across airlines and cars will rebound immediately, we're on a long term path to demand recovery. This is like having a clogged bathtub full of water and turning the faucet from 100% on to 50% on - you're still fucked until the faucet turns off (impossible) or the clog goes away more than enough to offset the faucet (not happening for a while). This is why experts broadly agree that the OPEC+ cuts are meaningless and that groups like Morgan Stanley believe demand destruction of oil will persist until well into 2021.
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SECTION 2: A brief overview of Tankers

You don't need much of a brain to understand, given the above, that tankers stand to benefit from demand destruction. However, there are many types of tankers, and it's not as obvious as hurr durr buy tankers. Each tanker type carries a different type of product, has a different size, and commands a different rate. Here is the current rates:
3 key types of tanker business models, spread across a variety of tanker variants
At this point I'm realizing that this post is getting way too long and i'm tired of typing it already, but do your own research on types of tankers. You can see though that tankers are commanding a stupidly high rate compared to their historical values:
https://preview.redd.it/q8u5q1odqmw41.jpg?width=1081&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5bc3668993ed1965a45f8c9af5a7a07f16e851b5
The current rates are so high that one spot voyage is profitable on the entire year.
"If an MR can get $30,000 per day on a spot voyage, it covers its costs for a year...If an LR2 gets $150,000 or $160,000 a day, it’s the same...you could lay the ship up, earn zero for the next ten months, and still make a profit on the ship."
Guess who owns the most clean-fuel ready LR2's that are exposed to the spot price? $STNG
Now, don't be stupid and assume that rates will hold this high all year. That said, even if rates went to $0 by mid summer, the rates for Q2 are so high such that it'd still be a higher revenue year than last year. And rates aren't going to $0...they're going to continue to stay above the historical average, just not as high as now, due to the crazy demand destruction.
  • Miscellaneous point of clarification: I see a lot of dumbasses posting about what numbers will look like if the entire fleet is booked out for and extrapolating to the entire year (usually in reference to $NAT). That's ridiculous and not how it works, so don't just assume number of tankers * spot rate * 365 = revenue for year = tendies.
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SECTION 3: Why $STNG and $EURN?

I really need to go fuck your wife soon, so I'm making the sections shorter and shorter; however, Ii'll still tell you way $STNG and $EURN are good bets. First, let's start with NAV - Net Asset Value. If you don't know what this means, Google it.
(edit) Disclaimer - As I mentioned at the top of the post, there are plenty of other viable tanker options. $STNG and $EURN are my plays so that's why this is focused on them.
As you (should) know, NAV is something you estimate and can be calculated differently based on different assumptions. Trading below NAV means the stock is underpriced as is, and that's before record earnings and guidance. By most accounts, $EURNs NAV is at least $13 currently, and $STNG is close to $30. They trade at $10 and $21, respectively, right now.

$STNG isn't even at its average price for 2019, but 2020 is objectively a better year unless a meteor blows up their fleet
Secondly, fleet size and type. $STNG has one of the largest fleets in the world, and in particular, they have the most LR2 tankers. If you go back up to the graph, you'll see that clean LR2 tankers are commanding an absurd rate, spiking to as high as $250,000 for a few days and currently settled around $150-175k/day, compared to a 5-year historical value of below $25k. $EURN has a solid fleet of VLCC's which are commanding a strong rate, and EURN has good financials - most their boats are fairly new, they don't have a ton of debt.
Lastly, they're among the first up on the earnings block, with STNG reporting 5/6 this week and EURN reporting on 5/7. Compare that to NAT, who reports the 23rd, so theta will eat away at what remains of your atrophied testicles every day. That said, regardless of theta, STNG and EURN are really strongly positioned.
I expect that earnings will be solid and likely beat, but not by a crazy amount because rates only started really jacking up in late March, and rates in early Q1 were actually pretty low. However, as many of you still don't fucking understand, earnings don't matter nearly as much as guidance. That's why you dumbfucks all complain about companies beating earnings but still tanking and then creating stupid conspiracy theories about "MM is fucking rigging this market". The good news here is that earnings should be solid, while guidance for is going to be euphoric.
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SECTION 4: Why is $NAT a meme, and mistakes I see people making

Ultimately, this comes down to people angling towards the right space (tankers) but you've been too stupid to do any research. You probably do this for all your bets, because you're a fucking autist, but you should stop.
b-bUT cRamEr SaId NAT hAs THe BiGGeSt fLe3t iN tHe WoRLd!!!
  1. Fleet size misconception: Cramer meme'd NAT, infamously calling out that they have the largest fleet in the world. In fact, if you actually tried to verify anything you ever fucking did, you could have googled this and realized that NAT has a fleet that, just like your dick, is one of the smallest around. Moreover, they have the wrong type of boats - they primarily have Suezmax boats, which command an okay rate, but aren't close to the best boats to have right now.
  2. No investigation of NAV: NAT's NAV, by all accounts, is close to $3. They are trading at close to $6, and were nearing $8-9 at peak pump. Why the fuck on god's green earth would you buy a company with the wrong type of boats, the wrong fleet size, trading at over 2x NAV, when everyone else is around or below their NAV and has a better fleet?
  3. Massive debt and shitty assets: NAT is saddled in debt, is historically shittily managed (read their earnings report if you know how, but you probably don't know how), and all their boats are at the end of their lifetime, meaning NAT not only has horrible debt but will need to buy a shit ton of new boats very soon
  4. Stupid assumptions on revenue: We covered this earlier, but no, just because demand is high, it doesn't mean every boat is going to get booked at the spot price. Many boats are on existing contracted rates from last quarter, and the ones who are not are not all getting booked out at once.
  5. Looking at ATH as an indicator: If i see another one of you dumb fucks pointing out that NAT used to trade at $16 a share 5 years ago, I will personally find you, tape you to a chair, and shit down your mouth. NAT has issued a shit ton more shares. You are probably the same group who thinks that USO rose from $2 to $18 last week.
The ONLY justification for NAT is now that it's been memed and retail knows all about it, it will probably rise again if the other tankers do well. You can make that play, and you might even make money. Just make sure to dump that shit before earnings because they're not going to be good enough to justify the rise and there's going to be a stupid dump.
_______________________________

MY POSITIONS:

As proof that I put money where my mouth is, I have ~$20k riding in on these positions:
- 40 $STNG 5/15 $23C
- 200 $EURN 5/15 $12.5C
_______________________________

CONCLUSION:

Fuck you. All in $NAT calls.
submitted by sAfuRos to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy
Alright CYKAS, Drill Sgt. Retarded TQQQ Burry is in the house. Listen up, I'm gonna train yo monkey asses to make some motherfucking money.

“Reeee can’t read, strike?” - random_wsb_autist
Bitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this:
gainz, bitch


Why am I telling you this?
Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-are-crushing-hedge-funds-again

That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen.
So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you).
If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep.
This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first.

THE RULES:
  1. Understand that most of this sub has the critical reading skills of a 6 year old and the attention span of a goldfish. As such, my posts are usually written with a level of detail aimed at the lowest common denominator. A lot of details on the thesis are omitted, but that doesn't mean that the contents in the post are all there is to it. If I didn't do that, every post'd have to be longer than this one, and 98% of you fucks wouldn't read it anyway. Fuck that.
  2. Understand that my style of making plays is finding the >10+ baggers that are underpriced. As such, ALL THE GOD DAMN PLAYS I POST ARE HIGH-RISK / HIGH-REWARD. Only play what you can afford to risk. And stop PM-ing me the second the market goes the other way, god damn it! If you can't manage your own positions, I'm going to teach your ass the basics.
  3. Do you have no idea what you're doing and have a question? Google it first. Then google it again. Then Bing it, for good measure. Might as well check PornHub too, you never know. THEN, if you still didn't find the answer, you ask.
  4. This sub gives me Tourette's. If you got a problem with that, well fuck you.

This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:
  • Are you new to trading?
  • Are you unable to manage your own positions?
  • Did you score into the negatives on the SAT Critical Reading section?
  • Do you think Delta is just an airline?
  • Do you buy high & sell low?
  • Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap?
  • Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2?
  • Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr?
  • Do you think I'm trying to sell you puts?
  • If you take a trade you see posted on this sub and are down, do you PM the guy posting it?
  • Do you generally PM people on this sub to ask them basic questions?
  • Is your mouth your primary breathing apparatus?
Well I have just the thing for you!


Table of Contents:
I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
IV. Busting your retarded myths
V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo
VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers


Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.
"hurr durr OP retarded, OP sell puts" - random_wsb_autist
Sit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect?
Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:
  1. 28/10/2019: "I'ma say this again, in case you haven't heard me the first time. BUY $JNK PUTS NOW!". Strike: "11/15, 1/17 and 6/19". "This thing can easily go below 50, so whatever floats your boat. Around $100 strike is a good entry point."
  2. 3/9/2020: "I mean it's a pretty obvious move, but $JNK puts."
  3. 3/19/2020, 12pm: "UVXY put FDs are free money." & “Buy $UVXY puts expiring tomorrow if we're still green at 3pm. Trust me.”
  4. 3/24/2020: “$UUP 3/27 puts at $27.5 or $27 should be 10-baggers once the bill passes. I'd expect it to go to around $26.”
And of course, the masterpiece that was the TQQQ put play.
Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it.
I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is?
Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5:
How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?
"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?"
"By several measures, it was about a 5-sigma move, something that's not "supposed to" happen more than once in your lifetime -- or your prehistoric ancestors' lifetimes!
"According to general statistical principles, a 4-sigma event is to be expected about every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day in 126 years. And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,483,046 days, or about 1 day every 13,932 years."

On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:
"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences.
This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's 2007 book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin."
I also took advantage of the extreme 5-sigma sell-off by grabbing a leveraged ETF on the Nasdaq 100, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ. In my plan, while I might debate the merits of buying AAPL or MSFT for hours, I knew I could immediately buy them both with TQQQ and be rewarded very quickly after the 14% plunge."
Ahahaha, fuckstick bought TQQQ at $70, cuz that's what you do after a random 5-sigma move, right? How many of you dumbasses did the same thing? Don't lie, I see you buying 3/5 on this TQQQ chart:
https://preview.redd.it/9ks35zdla5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c90d08494c52a1b874575ee233624e61ac27620
Meanwhile, on 3/3, I answered the question "Where do you see this ending up at in the next couple weeks? I have 3/20s" with "under 30 imo".

Well good fucking job, because a week later on 3/11, TQQQ closed at $61, and it kept going.
Nomura: Market staring into the abyss
"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).
Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:

"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? "
"While it may or may not make sense to buy stocks, it definitely is a good time to sell “volatility.” And yes, you can do it in your brokerage account! Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it."
"So what is the takeaway? I don’t know if now is the right time to start buying stocks again but it sure looks like the probabilities are in your favor to say that we are not going to experience another 7 standard deviation move in U.S. Stocks. OTM (out-of-the-money) Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels."
Good job, fuckfaces. Y'all bought this one too, admit it. I see you buying on this chart:
https://preview.redd.it/s9344geza5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebaef4b1414d901e6dafe354206ba39eb03cb199
Well guess what, by 3/18, a week later, we did get another 5 standard deviation move. TQQQ bottomed on 3/18 at $32.73. Still think that was just luck, punk? You know how many sigmas that was? Over 12 god-damn sigmas. 12 standard deviations. I'd have a much better chance of guessing everyone's buttcoin private key, in a row, on the first try. That's how unlikely that is.
https://preview.redd.it/luz0s3kbb5151.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=7542973d56c42e13efd3502331ac6cc5aea42630
"Hurr durr you said it's going to 0, so you're retarded because it didn't go to 0" - random_wsb_autist
Yeah, fuckface, because the Fed bailed ‘em out. Remember the $150b “overnight repo” bazooka on 3/17? That’s what that was, a bailout. A bailout for shitty funds and market makers like Trump's handjob buddy Kenny Griffin from Citadel. Why do you think Jamie Dimon had a heart attack in early March? He saw all the dogshit that everyone put on his books.

https://preview.redd.it/8fqvt37ama151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b06ee5101685c5274c6641a62ee9eb1a2a3f3ee


Read:
https://dealbreaker.com/2020/01/griffin-no-show-at-white-house
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/bank-ceos-convene-in-washington-with-president-trump-on-coronavirus.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/914736/market-makers--didn-t-show-up-for-work--macro-risk-ceo-says-914736.html
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/finance-banking/chicago-trading-firms-seek-more-capital
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/did-non-qm-just-disappear-from-the-market/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/bruised-hedge-funds-ask-clients-for-fresh-cash-to-buy-the-dip
https://fin24.com/Markets/Bonds/rand-bonds-rally-after-reserve-bank-intervention-20200320

Yup, everyone got clapped on their stupidly leveraged derivatives books. It seems Citadel is “too big to fail”. On 3/18, the payout on 3/20 TQQQ puts alone if it went to 0 was $468m. And every single TQQQ put expiration would have had to be paid. Tens or hundreds of billions on TQQQ puts alone. I’d bet my ass Citadel was on the hook for a big chunk of those. And that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to all the other blown derivative trades out there.

https://preview.redd.it/9ww27p2qb5151.png?width=2485&format=png&auto=webp&s=78f24265f3ea08fdbb37a4325f15ad9b61b0c694
Y’all still did good, 3/20 closed at $35. That’s $161m/$468m payoff just there. I even called you the bottom on 3/17, when I saw that bailout:

"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago
Haha when? I’m loading up in 4/17 25 puts"
"dlkdev
Scratch that, helicopter money is here."
"AfgCric 1 point 2 months ago
What does that mean?"
"It means the Fed & Trump are printing trillions with no end in sight. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom."

"hurr durr, it went lower on 3/18 so 3/17 wasn't the bottom" - random_wsb_autist
Idiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it.
Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags.
Video of Billy & the Fed train

Here's what Billy boy says:
“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”
https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5
Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger.
So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp.

Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS

RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play.
I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply:

Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2.
If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats.

You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later.

RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times.
RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays.

RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to
RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains.
RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS:
So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that.
RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS:
Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this:

Example 1:
Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it.

https://preview.redd.it/gq938ty8e5151.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=734ab7ed517f0e6822bfaaed5765d1272de398d1
Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads)
Then the autists show up:
"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4
Wrong fuckface. You see the max pain at SPX 2975 & OPEX pin coming? Sell them some calls or puts (or spreads).

https://preview.redd.it/7nv23fr41a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14a8879c975646ffbfe2942ca1982bfabfcf90df
Sold 9x5/20 SPX [email protected], bam +$6,390. Still wanna pin? Well have some 80x5/22 TQQQ $80cs, bam anotha +$14,700.

https://preview.redd.it/1iqtpmc71a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df9b954131b0877f4acc43038b4a5a4acf544237
+$21,090 - $10,824 = +$10,266 => Turned that shit into a +94.85% gain.

.cscqb4 rn

You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit.

Example 2:

5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play.

Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750.
Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How?
I have:
47x 2960 calls
-47x 2955 calls

Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have?

46x 2955/2960 bear calls
1x 2960 long call

So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there.
Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad.
And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position.

RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again.


Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS

MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP

Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you!
Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs.

What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables.

Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005.

Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you.


Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR:
2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case)

So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009
After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070
End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392

Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk

2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069
2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194
2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897


Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1263066368414568448

That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively.

Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage.

There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b).

Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway.

$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000.

What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000

And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ.

Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425

$100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b
$100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b
$100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b
$100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b

That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable.

In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK

My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage.
And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular.
And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself.

If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox.

If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets.
And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN".

MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET

On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200."
Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too?
Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:

  • ETF flows. If MSFT goes up and AAPL goes down, part of that flow is going to move from AAPL to MSFT. Even if MSFT flash-crashes up to $1000, the ETF will still "buy". Because it's passive.
  • Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
  • Index rebalancing flows
  • Buyback flows
  • 401k passive flows
  • Carry trade flows
  • Tax day flows
  • Flows of people front-running the flows

And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to

MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER

Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit:

On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.

"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist

Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31.

So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you:
Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines.

https://preview.redd.it/7agm171eh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94b90dcd634c8dc688925585bf0a02c3299f71b
Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here:

https://preview.redd.it/i1kdp3cgh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1e086e9217846547efd3b6c5249f4a7ebe6d9e
In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again.

https://preview.redd.it/fsyhenckh5151.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=03200e10b008257ae15d40b474c4cf4d8c23670f
Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means.
The reversal:
https://preview.redd.it/4xe97l0oh5151.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=07aaa93f6b1d8f542101e40e431edccbc109918f
https://preview.redd.it/v6i0pdmoh5151.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=74d5589961db2f978d4d582e6d7c58a85f6305f9
But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well.
https://preview.redd.it/40j53u8th5151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe39ab51321d0f98149d33e33253e69f96c48e23
Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you.
https://preview.redd.it/43lvafhvh5151.png?width=3705&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef53283cbc0fb97f71c1ba935c0bd747809636e
And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities.

Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG.
Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid.
Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke.
Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week).
And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage.
Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT!
And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do.
Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now.
Rewatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M
And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.”

Don’t baghold!
Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit.
And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc.
And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now.
The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake.
And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing.
Got it? Good.
You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB.

Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO
Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO:

STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka.
STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT.
STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10.
STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5.
STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay.


Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?

  1. Proshares is dogshit. If you don't understand the point in my last post, do this: download https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-historical_nav.csv and https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-psdlyhld.csv. Easier to see than with TQQQ. AUM: 1,174,940,072. Add up the value of all the t-bills = 1,686,478,417.49 and "Net other assets / cash". It should equal the AUM, but you get 2,861,340,576. Why? Because that line should read: NET CASH = -$511,538,344.85
  2. Major index rebalancing June 22.
  3. Watch the violent forex moves.
  4. 6/25 will be red. Don't ask, play a spread, bag a 2x-er.
  5. 6/19 will be red.
  6. Not settled yet, but a good chance 5/28 is red.
  7. Front run the rebalance. Front-run the front-runners of the rebalance too. TQQQ puts.
  8. Major retard flow in financials yesterday. Downward pressure now. GS 180 next weeks looks good.
  9. Buy leaps puts on dogshit bond ETFs (check holdings for dogshit)
  10. Buy TLT 1/15/2021 $85ps for cheap, sell over $1 when the Fed stops the ass rape, rinse and repeat
  11. TQQQ flow looks good:
https://preview.redd.it/untvykuxea151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0a38c0acb088ebff689d043e48466eb76d38e2f

Good luck. Dr. Retard TQQQ Burry out.
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