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Will the Los Angeles Rams win OVER/UNDER 8.5 games? By University Stats Prof!
submitted by David-MJ to sportsbook [link] [comments]
The Rams looked almost unstoppable in 2018 when they finished with a 13-3 record and the second-highest scoring offense in the league. They made it to the Super Bowl, and that’s when things started to unravel for them.
New England won Super Bowl LIII by a 13-3 score. The Rams offense was limited to just 260 total yards; they were totally unrecognizable.
Their two biggest stars, Jared Goff and Todd Gurley, have not looked the same since that game. Their level of play took a big hit last year, and it led to a 9-7 season and missing the playoffs.
What will 2020 bring?
2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown 2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
Jared Goff was a huge disappointment for fantasy owners. He did rack up 4,638 passing yards, but if you omit his rookie season, he had a career-low in TD passes with 22 and a career-high in interceptions with 16.
Goff graded as the 20th overall QB out of 37 by PFF. A much better production was expected of him, especially with some playmakers around him.
Its offensive line wasn’t as good as it was in the past. When your quarterback is as mobile as a statue, the results are bad. He struggles a lot when pressured; he doesn’t seem to be able to scramble or avoid the rush.
The team would love to upgrade the OL, but it’s an almost impossible task considering the team’s lack of cap space. For this reason, Goff is unlikely to match his 2017 and 2018 numbers, but the team hopes he can fare better than last year.
2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
Todd Gurley had four magnificent seasons with the Rams from 2015 to 2018. He was widely viewed as one of the best non-QB player in the league. He was racking up rushing yards, receiving yards and also a boatload of touchdowns.
Then, his play started to decline towards the end of the 2018 season because of knee and ankle injuries. His 2019 play wasn’t so good, including a pedestrian 3.8 yard-per-rush average.
The team got rid of him even though he’s only 25 years old. His knee issues appear to be chronic, which scared the team. His enormous contract also became a big problem.
Who is set to replace him?
The team pulled the trigger on Cam Akers in the 2nd round of this year’s draft. He was the #1 ranked RB coming out of high school. He had a tough time at Florida State running behind a putrid offensive line.
Akers has a very thick lower body. He has the skillset to become a three-down NFL runner since he showed promise as a pass catcher (albeit not spectacular in that part of the game). He has shown a great understanding at reading defensive fronts.
The Rams invested a 3rd round pick in 2019 on Darrell Henderson, so they are likely to give him all the opportunities to prove his worth. He only rushed 39 times for 147 yards (an ordinary 3.8 yards-per-carry average), while catching just four balls last year. And that was despite Gurley not playing very well, so I don’t recommend holding your breath hoping he can suddenly break out in 2020.
As for Malcolm Brown, he had more rushes and yards than Henderson, but his yards-per-rush average was no better. Brown did get into the end zone on five occasions, though. The undrafted runner from Texas seems unlikely to be a lead back in the NFL.
2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods led the team with 94 and 90 receptions, respectively. Both surpassed the 1,100 receiving yard mark. Kupp hauled in 10 TD passes versus just two for Woods. Both are very reliable and well above-average receivers. A very nice duo to have for Goff.
The 2019 season was one to forget for Brandin Cooks. He had career-lows in receptions (42) and TDs (2), and pretty close to a career-low as well in terms of receiving yards with just 583. His five concussions as a pro and his bad contract enticed the team to trade him to Houston.
That opens the door for Josh Reynolds, who is clearly a huge downgrade compared to Cooks. That being said, second round pick Van Jefferson might push Reynolds for the number three role.
Jefferson is known for his route running prowess, which is something Sean McVay values. However, he doesn’t have extraordinary size, nor speed. His production in college wasn’t very impressive, as he never topped the 700 receiving-yard mark in any college season.
2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
The Rams have a nice TE duo with Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. They graded as the 3rd and 10th-best tight ends in the league last year, according to PFF ratings.
Gerald Everett entered 2019 as the #1 tight end for the Rams and he was on his way for a breakout season. In Week #11, he sustained a knee injury and he ended up missing a few games. During that time, Tyler Higbee did an astounding job and the team had no choice but to put Everett in the backseat.
Both of these guys will be back in 2020 and are entering their prime years. The future is bright at this position.
2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
L.A.’s offensive line struggled last year. The only guy who seems to be locked into a spot is left guard Andrew Whitworth. His play dipped last year, but he was still one of the best from this group.
The Rams have signed some bad deals recently, and they might have done another one this offseason. Why sign Whitworth for three years at an average of $10 million, knowing he’s 38 years old? He’s been very durable, but a 38-year-old body is more likely to get hurt. Also, his play might deteriorate even more this year.
Austin Blythe started the second half of the season at center following Brian Allen’s injury. Both had a subpar season and it remains to be seen who get the starting nod when the season opens.
Rob Havenstein was considered as a strong up-and-coming right tackle in the NFL until the wheels came off last year. He eventually got benched in favor of Bobby Evans. Both received marks around 50 from PFF, which is horrible.
David Edwards seems to have a shot to become the starting right guard. He was taken in the 5th round of the 2019 draft and he ended up starting 10 games last year. He finished as the 44th-best guard in the NFL among 81 guards. That’s not great, but it turns out to be a higher rank than most of his teammates.
Joseph Noteboom is another guy whose PFF grade cratered in 2019. It went from 70.7 in 2018 to 39.7 last year. He was overmatched and looked nothing like the promising third-round pick.
Austin Corbett might still be in play as well. He’s been nothing short of bad with the Browns and the Rams. He couldn’t make it into the starting lineup with the OL-desperate Browns.
2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
The Rams didn’t add any offensive player worth of note via free agency.
However, they lost Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks. Both disappointed a lot last year, but they still had talent and contributed to some level last year.
I’m also worried about the team’s depth, except at the tight end position.
First, the backup WR position is questionable. If either Kupp or Woods get hurt, who will step in at WR? Reynolds isn’t ready to be a #2 receiver. Rookie Van Jefferson isn’t up to the task either.
Next, we don’t even know if the Rams have a #1 running back, let alone a viable backup. They have to hope for Cam Akers to be pro ready. Finally, the offensive line is a mess.
Therefore, it’s hard to envision an upgrade from this offense. They scored the 11th highest number of points in 2019 and I can hardly see them finishing above spot 11. Perhaps 14th-19th is more realistic.
Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate downgrade
3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown 3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
The interior of the defensive line is the strength of this defense. Having what may be the best defensive player in the league, Aaron Donald, clearly helps the cause.
Donald has obtained a PFF grade above 90 in each of his first six seasons in the league, which is unbelievable. For clarity purposes, note that just three DLs obtained a mark above 90 last year.
His numbers are staggering. He has averaged 12 sacks and 2.5 forced fumbles per year. He has also missed just two games during this 6-year period. It doesn’t get any better than this!
Michael Brockers agreed to terms with the Ravens, but the deal fell through because he failed a physical exam. Baltimore was too worried about a high-ankle sprain he suffered last year. A few days later, he signed a three-year contract with the Rams.
The team is glad to have him back. He was the 23rd-best DL out of 114 qualifiers, according to PFF. He will soon turn 30, but still has some gas left in the tank.
Los Angeles added some nice depth by acquiring A’Shawn Robinson, formerly of the Lions. He never lived up to his round 2 status and he struggled more last year, but his presence might help.
3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
Dante Fowler and Clay Matthews are gone. There goes 11.5 and 8 sacks.
Out of the two, Fowler’s departure hurts the most by far. He’ll be 26 years old when the season begins and he was coming off career highs in tackles, sacks and forced fumbles.
As for Matthews, his eight sacks were deceiving. He still received the lowest PFF grades of his 11-year career; his tackling was particularly horrible.
In order to alleviate those losses, the Rams signed Leonard Floyd. After being selected as the #9 overall pick in the 2016 draft, he posted seven sacks in 12 games during his rookie season. Things were looking up.
However, he picked up just 4.5, 4.0 and 3.0 sacks from 2017 to 2019. At least he defends the run well, which allowed him to finish above-average among all edge defenders in the NFL (based on PFF ratings).
Samson Ebukam has enjoyed three similarly “okay” seasons in the NFL thus far. He’ll be 25 years old so he could improve a little bit. He’s nice depth to have on your team.
3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
Cory Littleton leaving to Las Vegas is a huge blow to this defense. A very big loss. He led the team in tackles both in 2018 and 2019. He was a three-down player and it’s unclear how the team plans to replace him.
Troy Reeder is an undrafted guy who played 27% of the snaps. According to PFF, he finished as the second-worst LB in the league out of 88 guys. Enough said.
3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
Last October, the Rams made a lot of big moves.
First, they traded Marcus Peters to the Ravens, whose level of play increased dramatically after the trade. A few hours later, the Rams acquired Jalen Ramsey from the Jaguars, in return of a couple of first-rounders and a 4th round selection. Finally, the Rams shipped Aqib Talib to Miami for cap reasons.
Ramsey played pretty well in his nine games with the Rams. He’s been very good in each of his first four years in the league.
After the trade shuffling, Troy Hill became the starter opposite of Ramsey. He received good marks from PFF, but he seems likely to regress in 2020. He’s an undrafted guy who was used as a fill-in during his first four years in the NFL.
Nickell Robey-Coleman was a slot man for the Rams, and he was good at it. His 74.5 grade from PFF put him in the #16 spot out of 112 CBs. Unfortunately, he left for Philly and he leaves a hole in L.A.’s defense.
3.5 Safeties (S)
Eric Weddle was the most used safety in the team, but he decided to retire after an illustrious 13-year career. Hats off to him for missing just seven games during this time frame!
Last year the team drafted Taylor Rapp out of Washington in the second round. He had a satisfying season with 100 tackles, two interceptions and one TD. Despite such very respectable numbers, he graded as the 57th-best safety out of 87.
Who will fill the void left by Weddle? As of now, the most probable answer is John Johnson.
The former Boston College player enjoyed two very good seasons after being drafted in the third round. Indeed, 81.5 and 83.6 grades from PFF during those years was exceptional. However, he crashed down to a 53.5 mark last year, while also missing 10 games due to a shoulder injury. He really struggled early in the 2019 season.
2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
The only defensive position where the Rams improved during the offseason is DL via the acquisition of A’Shawn Robinson. And to be honest, that’s not a huge improvement.
On the other hand, the team will be hurt big time from the loss of LB Cory Littleton. At edge, replacing Fowler and Matthews with Leonard Floyd won’t cut it.
More bad news in the secondary. Effective slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman is gone, while starting safety Eric Weddle decided to hang his cleats. The Rams will be hard-pressed to find suitable replacements.
Thank God they have big-name players like Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey (and perhaps to a lesser level Michael Brockers) because the rest of the roster is pretty weak. If either player gets hurt, it could be catastrophic for this unit.
Last year, Los Angeles ranked 17th in terms of points allowed. I expect a severe downfall into the 24-30 range.
Final call (2020 vs 2019): Big downgrade
4. Regular Season Wins
According to sportsbooks, the Los Angeles Rams are expected to win 8.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:
- Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
- Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
- Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
- Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
- Count the proportion of seasons where the Rams won more or less than 8.5 games.
Here are the results:
| ||Estimated Probability ||Sportsbook ||Odds ||ROI |
|OVER 8.5 WINS ||49.3% ||Bookmaker.eu ||+116 ||+6.5% |
|UNDER 8.5 WINS ||50.7% ||William Hill ||-110 ||-3.2% |
- Tip: Bet OVER 8.5 wins
- Return On Investment (ROI): +6.5%
- Rank: 28th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
- Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): +103
Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Rams’ 16 regular season games:
- HOME: -6 vs ARI, -3.5 vs CHI, +2.5 vs DAL, -4 vs NE, -7.5 vs NYG, -7 vs NYJ, -1.5 vs SEA, +2.5 vs SF.
- ROAD: 0 @ ARI, +3 @ BUF, -3 @ MIA, +4 @ PHI, +3.5 @ SEA, +7 @ SF, +3.5 @ TB, -5 @ WAS.
Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
This 6.5% ROI is the 28th-highest among the league's 32 teams. Tomorrow, I'll discuss the team whose ROI is 27th in the NFL (and I'll keep going every day with ROI improving each time).
I hope you found this article and in-depth statistical study insightful!
GM-Driven 3 Round Mock Draft (With Trades)
submitted by tuhnayhk to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]
I've generally had a complaint that mock drafts are blind to GM tendencies, team schemes, and upcoming contracts / need for cap flexibility, so a couple friends and I used quarantine to throw together a three round mock draft (trades inclusive) that tries to pay attention to this. Obviously, we can't know your team's scheme and history as well as you, but we figured it'd be great to share our mock draft anyway and invite any thoughts on it. NFL_Draft
can be a little critical, as it should be given we're making guesses that impact the future of your franchise, but we're also big boys so feel free to tear this thing to shreds (or compliment it if you feel so inclined). The thing is far from perfect, so to add to the discussion and educate us a little bit, please feel free to let us know what picks you liked/disliked.
To make this easier to read we broke it out similar to Matt Miller's early mock drafts, with Round 1 up front with short descriptions on each pick followed by Rounds 2 and 3 with no detail. Additionally, we've added in the back a summary of trades as well as a break out by team.
T-5 days until Thursday!
Round 1: CINCINNATI: Joe Burrow, QB
There's not much to explain here. What doesn't Cincinnati need? That list starts and ends at WR. They could take any number of players here and they would start tomorrow, but when you're building a team from the ground up, you take a QB, and who better than the guy who threw for 60 TDs, 5,671 yards, a 76% completion percentage, won a national championship, and ripped a cigar in the locker room… small hands and all. WASHINGTON: Chase Young, EDGE
Say what you will about Dan Snyder, and you're probably right, but the guy tends to make the right call in the top 10. Since buying the team in 1999, the Redskins have picked in the top 10 an amazing 9 times, but those picks have been Champ Bailey, LaVar Arrington, Chris Samuels, Sean Taylor, Carlos Rogers, LaRon Landry, Trent Williams, RGIII, and Brandon Scherff. Every single one of those players has been a Pro Bowler. Not much to overthink here. Dan Snyder gets a generational talent and easily the best player in the draft, bringing back the hometown kid. DETROIT: Jeff Okudah, CB
Patricia's defense is predicated upon a strong secondary playing predominantly press-man coverage, sticking to receivers long enough to create coverage sacks. While Justin Coleman has been vastly underrated for the Lions, there's also no way to play him on the outside, and the Lions will need someone to line up opposite Desmond Trufant with Slay in Philadelphia. Taking a DB in the top 10 is always risky, but so is trading down here. Patricia insists on a versatile defense with no particular scheme, and Okudah's well-rounded skillset including strength as a cover corner, in press-man, in off-man, and zone fits perfectly in Detroit. NY GIANTS: Tristan Wirfs, OL\
Gettleman is no stranger to controversy, but his pick here is far from that. Isaiah Simmons is the best player on the Board, but the young cornerstones of this franchise stand behind a line that with the exception of Will Hernandez probably shouldn't be there in four years. Lucky for Gettleman, he gets his pick of OL, four of whom are arguably worth a top 10 pick almost any year. While Judge may want to take the most NFL-ready prospect in Wills, I imagine Gettleman can't pass up on the athleticism and versatility of Wirfs. With his speed in the open field, quickness in getting to the second level and ability to make blocks in the open field, Wirfs can become Saquon's best friend pretty quick, especially on screen plays.
*But honestly, leave it to Gettleman to fool everyone and make a pick out of left field. No, literally, this guy could make a pick from left field and ask Brett Gardner to take NJ Transit down to MetLife on Sundays. MIAMI: Tua Tagovailoa, QB
Miami refuses to tank and still wins the Tua Sweepstakes. With all that has gone on in 2020, at least there's some good in the world and Brian Flores is about 40% of it. I completely understand that there are injury concerns about Tua that are hard to overlook. But it's also hard to overlook issues with Justin Herbert -- namely just how off target he could be throwing down the field. I'm not doubting his athleticism or the absolute rocket he has attached to his shoulder, but the fact of the matter is his completion percentage, which is already lower than Tua's, is aided by playing weaker defenses in the Pac-12 and the absolutely absurd number of easy bubble screens and dump passes he throws behind the line of scrimmage. Both QBs are phenomenal, but Tua's accuracy, ability to extend plays, willingness to take hits, and ability avoid sacks outweigh the injury risk. If you're lucky, you have a potential Hall of Fame quarterback, and if you're unlucky, Brian Flores will still probably get you to 7-9 with the Goldman Sachs analyst you call a backup QB. LA CHARGERS: Justin Herbert, QB
I spent most of the last pick talking about why not to pick Justin Herbert, but here's why you should: 6'6", 237 lbs, with easily the best arm in the draft and a Josh Allen-esque ability to move. Oregon's play call didn't give him much of a chance to throw it downfield, but when he did it was brilliant. He's the kind of QB prospect that could have tested like Maurice Claiborne on the Wonderlic and still been drafted 1st overall 10 years ago. However, his inconsistency and inability to leverage his athleticism to feeling comfortable throwing on the run and outside of the pockets relegates him to third on my QB Big Board. I don't know whether I buy that the Chargers are planning on starting Tyrod Taylor this year, but whether Herbert gets his shot this year or next, he has a legitimate chance to be a star. CAROLINA: Isaiah Simmons, LB
Matt Rhule walks into a full re-build with both ownership and CMC's buy-in. The one thing Carolina doesn't have for the first time in nearly two decades is a Pro Bowl LB. Hurney and company fix that immediately by taking the best athlete in the draft. This isn't Carolina's biggest need -- they have only two DTs that are going to make a roster, so I understand the Derrick Brown arguments -- nor is it typically Rhule's favorite position -- I understand arguments that they may try to continue to add to the line to protect their new franchise QB -- but Simmons is just too talented to pass up. He basically lines up everywhere from safety, to linebacker, to nickel linebacker, and even edge. If you need any more convincing, he ran a 4.39 40 (good enough for 5th best by a WR). ARIZONA: Derrick Brown, DT
Keim isn't need blind, but historically he has definitely valued talent over need. If you need proof of that, just go back to last year when Keim and Kingsbury determined Kyler Murray was the best player in the draft and (rightfully) gave up on the Josh Rosen experiment. The Cardinals also just so happen to need a 3-tech guy to anchor the interior of their line, and preferably someone with some versatility given Vance Joseph's scheme (Brown played from 0- to 5-tech at Auburn). The biggest knock is his lack of athleticism, but Brown has shiftiness for his size, attacks at the line, uses his hands well, and explodes through his man. I know a lot of people mock a T here, and that makes sense too, but I just don't see Arizona's line as that urgent of a need that Keim will pass up the best player on the Board. JACKSONVILLE: CJ Henderson, DB
If Dave Caldwell had the remote from Click, I'm pretty sure he'd fast forward to the 2021 draft and grabbing Trevor Lawrence. The 2020 season is going to be an ugly one for Jacksonville, and it's only going to get worse as they explore trading Fournette and Ngakoue. Caldwell won't completely ignore the best player available approach -- see Josh Allen last year -- but he definitely leans toward filling a need, and their secondary is an eye sore. I personally think spending a top 10 pick on a corner with Cam Robinson potentially become a free agent is a mistake, but there's also a mile between Henderson and the next best corner available. I imagine the Jaguars explore a trade down a little bit before taking arguably the best cover corner in the draft.
DENVER - 10
CLEVELAND - 15, 77, 118
Andrew Berry wants Ezra Cleveland, but a top 10 pick is a little rich for him. John Elway wants Henry Ruggs III, but he won't be there at 15. Berry moves back, picking up valuable draft capital to secure rookie contracts for when the bill eventually comes due on the Browns players and they can't afford to extend everyone.
DENVER: Henry Ruggs III, WR
Henry Ruggs III is an OC's dream. The guys finishes every play and does the little things in a way you rarely see on the offensive side of the ball. He's a great route runner with world class speed and endless hustle, whether he's running with the ball after the catch, finishing a block downfield, or making a tackle on special teams. By moving up six picks, Denver leaves Day 1 with suddenly one of the better WR corps in the league. It's amazing it took everyone this long to notice Ruggs III is the top WR in this class, but I guess that's what happens when you play in Tuscaloosa and everyone on the team is an NFL-caliber player. NY JETS: Jedrick Wills, OL
I've seen a lot of mock drafts put a WR here, but I honestly buy that Gase is not that concerned about his WR corps. Not only that, but the value is going to be there in the second round -- especially for a team that needs a big target that can actually go up and get it in the red zone or on a deep route when Darnold wants to gun it downfield. That leaves offensive line as the biggest need, and in particular LT. Gase prefers lineman who are strongest in pass protection, and one of the most NFL-ready OL and pass blockers is somehow still on the Board at 11. Wills can easily slide over the left side and protect Darnold from getting sacked every few snaps, something only mono has been able to do thus far. LAS VEGAS: CeeDee Lamb, WR
Numerous outlets have linked Lamb to Las Vegas, and I'm not one to argue. Gruden and Mayock both typically pick their guys and could care less how other people value them. Lamb may be the best true route-runner in this draft class and his toughness is certainly going to translate to the NFL. I've read the criticisms that he has never been forced to play against press-man in college and that he lacks world class speed, but his strengths more than make up for it and at the end of the day he's one of the more high floor WR prospects I've ever seen. SAN FRANCISCO: Andrew Thomas, OL
Before trading for Emmanuel Sanders, the 49ers were 6-0 with a WR core anchored by Deebo Samuel, Marquise Goodwin, and Kendrick Bourne. They obviously need a WR, but they've also shown they can fair just fine without one. What they would struggle much more to replace is Joe Staley in the supposed 50/50 case he retires. If Staley plays another year, Thomas can kick inside or learn behind him. Shanahan prefers offensive linemen athletic enough to block in a zone scheme, and Thomas is not out-of-this-world athletic presenting a potential issue, but he's also high character and high football IQ, which Shanahan also wants in his players. Would I be surprised if Lynch and Shanahan opted to take Jeudy here? No. Do I see them passing on one of the safest bets to replace Joe Staley? Also, no. TAMPA BAY: Mekhi Becton, OL
There wasn't a ton to overthink here in my book - the Bucs are going to take the best T available at 14, and here it's Becton. Tampa Bay's priority is protecting Tom Brady, and Becton gives them the best chance to do that. In a dream world, they get someone a little more polished and ready to play tomorrow (especially given the likely shortened offseason) but Becton is incredibly mobile for someone his size, able to quickly recover, and strong enough to still get ends outside. He'll need to improve his hands and get better in true dropback pass protection given Brady's tendencies, but he can potentially be a huge piece for a team that needs to re-tool its offensive line. CLEVELAND: Javon Kinlaw, DT
Cleveland's two biggest needs are LT and FS, but if they were going to take a LT here they would have stayed at 10 and Andrew Berry comes from the Howie Roseman school where you don't pay safeties. Given his analytics background, I imagine he takes best player available, and that's easily Kinlaw. While raw, Kinlaw's talent is undeniable. He's long, strong, and has incredibly active hands. Kinlaw honestly looks like David Irving out there sometimes given his ability to manhandle 300lb offensive linemen, but the Browns wouldn't have to deal with all the off-field issues. The Browns can leave Ogunjobi in on base downs and bring in Kinlaw for 2nd and 3rd down pass rush. Getting Kinlaw also gives Berry the flexibility to make Ogunjobi, Richardson, or Billings cap casualties in future seasons if Kinlaw comes along quicker than expected. ATLANTA: K'Lavon Chaisson, EDGE
If you watched Atlanta play last year you know this is going to be a defense-heavy draft. It's easy to see that Atlanta needs an outside corner, but it's also hard to justify taking one here with Okudah and Henderson off the Board. I know Fowler enters the fold this year, but I still think Chaisson provides value in his ability to both get to the QB and drop back into coverage. To be successful in the NFC South, Atlanta is going to need to get to the QB, and quickly. Chaisson has legitimate speed and power coming off the edge, making him an every down player. The CB is still there for Atlanta, but it can wait until the 2nd round. DALLAS: Jerry Jeudy, WR
This is a similar message to Atlanta above. Dallas absolutely needs an outside corner, but it's just not there. Safety is also a need and the best guy is still on the Board, but the Cowboys have also not historically valued safeties in drafts, especially this high. Thirty years of Jerry tells me that he'll take best player available at 17, and while WR isn't a high priority position for the Cowboys Jeudy's value here is just too good to pass up. The defense still needs attention, but you can address that Day 2. Besides, how much do you need defense if you can put up 40+ points per game surrounding Dak with Zeke, Cooper, Jeudy, and that line? And with 40+ points per game, that's at least 5+ cuts to Jerry grinning and high-fiving in the owner's box. MIAMI: Xavier McKinney, S
Brian Flores really started making a name for himself in New England as a safeties coach where the most important piece of a Super Bowl winning defense was Devin McCourty. Miami has plenty of holes, but it also has plenty of picks. The Miami system values versatility and McKinney provides just that as he can play just about anywhere in the secondary. Not only that, but he can provide value as a blitzer as well. The coincidence that this pick was the return for Minkah Fitzpatrick is not lost on me, but another top-tier S from Alabama with a longer runway on his rookie deal is not a bad thing.
NEW ENGLAND - 19
LAS VEGAS - 23, 98
Suggesting the Patriots trade up in any mock draft is a dangerous endeavor, but they also have an absurd number of picks in this year's draft. Giving Las Vegas a compensatory third to move up and get your pick of the draft's top LBs isn't too bad a price to pay.
NEW ENGLAND: Patrick Queen, LB
I'm not going to pretend to know what Belichick is going to do in this draft. It's equally likely that he trades out of the first round as it is he moves up, but I what I do know is the Patriots could use more help at LB. In particular, someone with speed who can blitz up the middle and off the edge. Anyone who watched the CFB Playoffs last year saw the speed Queen had off the edge as well as his ability to cover out of the backfield and underneath. He's equally comfortable dropping into zone as he is speed rushing the edge. High football IQ and athleticism screams Patriot to me and he just so happens to fit a position of need. JACKSONVILLE: Kenneth Murray, LB
Jacksonville is a little hard to mock for in that they have need at just about every position. However, the defense hasn't been the same since Telvin Smith left. With Joe Schobert joining the fold as an inside linebacker and Myles Jack pushing to the weak side, Murray can work on the strong side. You can make an argument that the usage here isn't worth a first round pick or that Murray can lack football IQ at times, but he also possesses incredible speed and playmaking ability. He can get sideline to sideline and blow up plays in the backfield, and that kind of explosiveness can really help tie a defense together. PHILADELPHIA: Justin Jefferson, WR
Philadelphia needs a receiver as bad as I need football right now, and after more than a month in my parents' basement I can tell you that's pretty damn bad. It got bad enough last year I thought the team was going to make an Invincible throwback and call up the guy from the viral fire video for a tryout. You can make an argument for any number of WRs, but Jefferson checks the boxes for Eagles fans: fast and with hands not made of bricks. The guy just had a way of getting open in college, and that's something Philadelphia has really missed the past few years. MINNESOTA: Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE
This is a risky pick in a mock draft. Minnesota's front office does not historically take DL early in the draft - the only one Minnesota has taken in the first 2 rounds in the last 10 years was Shariff Floyd - instead opting to fill in the line with late round players. However, Griffen's departure leaves obvious need here, and the idea of a player with Gross-Matos' intangibles is interesting for a 4-3 defense that loves to dial up blitz packages on 3rd down. His speed, length, and power are things you can't teach, and his ability to maneuver around offensive linemen is particularly impressive at his height. LAS VEGAS: Kris Fulton, DB
Mayock and Gruden trade down from 19 and still grab their next favorite CB prospect along with an additional 3rd round pick. Last year, they demonstrated a desire to fill in team needs with prospects from winning programs. Unless you buy Eli Apple as the outside corner opposite Mullen, this is certainly a position of need. Last year, going after winning players meant a number of Clemson guys. This year, they grab their first National Champion in Fulton. Fulton's ability to stick with his man is why some have him graded as the number 2 CB in this year's class. He's rarely caught out of position, and despite a lack of top-end speed, he shows an incredible ability to recover.
INDIANAPOLIS - 24
NEW ORLEANS - 34, 75, 193
New Orleans really doesn't have a lot of positions of need this year, and make fun of me if you will, but I buy that Sean Payton is okay with Taysom Hill playing QB for at least a season if needbe. That isn't to say the Saints won't draft a QB, just that they won't reach on one at the end of the first and without a second round pick. The Colts on the other hand will - especially if they value Jordan Love as highly as others have speculated in the past month. Indianapolis gets to take advantage of the Saints wanting to trade down and gives up less than they'd ordinarily have to in order to get back into the first round.
INDIANAPOLIS: Jordan Love, QB
Not much to get into here. I don't buy for one second that Jacoby Brissett is the long-term answer in Indianapolis, and there have been a lot of experts suggesting the Colts buy the Jordan Love hype train. The upside here is prototypical size for a NFL QB, strong pocket presence, great arm strength and touch all over the field, and high athleticism. He also comes with a ton of risk, namely his inconsistency, turnovers, dangerous throws across the middle, and his regression last year. I'm not going to sit here and defend the pick too much. I tend not to like QBs who take steps back and throw almost as many interceptions as touchdowns playing in the Mountain West. However, while I personally think there's too much risk for Jordan Love to warrant a Day 1 grade, this isn't a Big Board, it's a Mock Draft, and a lot of people smarter than me have suggested Love is a top 10 caliber talent. If you believe that, then he's certainly worth trading up for and grabbing in the back end of the first round. MINNESOTA: Jaylon Johnson, DB
After Henderson, it's really a toss-up who you think the next best corner is, but Jaylon Johnson should at least be in the discussion. Utah was quietly one of the best defenses in college football last year and Johnson was certainly a part of that. Johnson is highly instinctive with 4.5 speed and good enough height/length. I'm not sure how much his physicality will translate to the next level given his size, but his ability to read plays and act on them should make him a good cover corner at a minimum. If you need proof, look up his pick sixes on Eason and Huntley last year, where he recognizes the play and makes a change to his coverage and a jump on his ball before it's even thrown. Spielman and Zimmer have shown no aversion to drafting DBs in the first round, and with Rhodes and Waynes departing this off-season Johnson helps the Vikings fill an obvious position of need. MIAMI: Josh Jones, OL
Miami could frankly use two tackles, but they wait until it makes sense value-wise and take Josh Jones here. Whoever they pick is going to have to be ready day 1, which makes Austin Jackson out of the question. Jones had a stellar senior year and cemented it at the Senior Bowl. Given he blocked for D'Eriq King he should be comfortable outside of traditional pass sets, which could prove useful if Miami picks Tua as this mock draft predicted. Jones has prototypical size and strength to be an NFL tackle and gets right into the shoulder pads of the defense. The Dolphins have a lot of needs, but thankfully spends its first three picks filling the most important ones. SEATTLE: Julian Okwara, EDGE
Death, taxes, and the Seahawks reaching late in the first round. Even if Clowney chooses to re-sign with Seahawks, the team could use another edge rusher to challenge LJ Collier who put together a whopping two tackles his rookie season. I'm honestly surprised mock draft experts haven't been higher on Okwara. He explodes off the line and uses his length and speed to get around tackles. You need to look no further than his performance vs. Virginia, which he absolutely dominated. His bull-rush is NFL-ready and he has the build and mobility to drop off into coverage as necessary. The criticism will remain given his smaller frame, but the production was clearly there at Notre Dame. BALTIMORE: Cesar Ruiz, OL
The truth is the Ravens don't have a ton of needs and the top LBs are off the Board at this point. If there's a weakness on the Ravens' offensive line it's at the center position. Ruiz gets out of his stance quickly and stays with defenders throughout the play. Criticism of his athleticism is overblown given he's a center. He's also incredibly young, so there's room for growth. TENNESSEE: A.J. Epenesa, EDGE
The Titans biggest need is at corner, but given the number that have gone off the Board already the value just isn't there. Instead, Tennessee can address the hole on their defensive line created by Jurrell Casey's departure. Jeffrey Simmons has the size and athleticism to allow for flexibility in how Tennessee constructs its line, and this means Jon Robinson can approach this pick with a little more of a best player available approach. The best defensive lineman on the Board is A.J. Epenesa. GREEN BAY: Jalen Reagor, WR
Nick Bosa embarrassed the entire city of Green Bay on national television and made clear the need for a new tackle, but I don't think Green Bay addresses that quite yet. Brian Gutekunst comes from the Ron Wolf school of thought about best player available, and the T position is a little drained here. Instead, I think GB chooses to find someone to put opposite Davante Adams. Jalen Reagor's fall into the second round of many mock drafts is hard for me to explain. The production was there in college and the combine only supported what we knew from the tape: Reagor is a superb athlete. I think the biggest knock is drops, which would likely only get worse in the NFL, but pairing him with Adams and Rogers could be absolutely dynamic. His double move is something to behold and he's great after the catch. Putting that next to, and allowing him to learn from, Adams is a match made in heaven.
CLEVELAND - 31, 210
SAN FRANCISCO- 41, 77
San Francisco lacks draft capital given their trades for Dee Ford and Emmanuel Sanders, but has needs. The Browns moved back earlier because Ezra Cleveland is their guy. Berry can't afford to let him go and can get back into the 1st round for a fair price given the Niners need for 2nd and 3rd round picks.
CLEVELAND: Ezra Cleveland, OL
Cleveland trades back into the first round and addresses its biggest position of need by getting somebody to protect Baker Mayfield. If you buy the rumors that Andrew Berry likes Ezra Cleveland, which I do, then it makes sense to grab him here before anyone else can in the early second. KANSAS CITY: A.J. Terrell, DB
Brett Veach and Andy Reid have always valued cornerbacks, and despite the re-signing of Bashaud Breeland the Chiefs are still thin at the position. Given this, I think the Chiefs could go with the next best corner available in their mind. Terrell measures out well with good speed. I'm pretty sure Terrell still has nightmares about Ja'Marr Chase, but so do a lot of CBs not named Cameron Dantzler. That performance shouldn't erase years of strong tape otherwise. Round 2: CINCINNATI: Isaiah Wilson, OL NEW OLREANS: Zack Baun, LB DETROIT: Marlon Davidson, DL NY GIANTS: Josh Uche, EDGE LA CHARGERS: Austin Jackson, OL CAROLINA: Neville Gallimore, DL MIAMI: D'Andre Swift, RB TRADE:
NY JETS - 40
HOUSTON - 48, 120 NY JETS: Michael Pittman Jr., WR SAN FRANCISCO: Denzel Mims, WR JACKSONVILLE: Antoine Winfield Jr., S CHICAGO: Trevon Diggs, DB INDIANAPOLIS: Tee Higgins, WR TRADE:
MIAMI - 45, 173
TAMPA BAY - 56, 154, Future 4th MIAMI: Brandon Aiyuk, WR DENVER: Jeff Gladney, DB ATLANTA: Noah Igbinoghene, DB HOUSTON: Raekwon Davis, DL PITTSBURGH: Robert Hunt, OL CHICAGO: Kyle Dugger, S DALLAS: Cameron Dantzler, DB LA RAMS: J.K. Dobbins, RB PHILADELPHIA: Grant Delpit, S TRADE:
CINCINNATI - 54, 167
BUFFALO - 65, 107 CINCINNATI: Willie Gay Jr., LB BALTIMORE: Laviska Shenault Jr., WR TAMPA BAY: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB LA RAMS: Netane Muti, OL TRADE:
LAS VEGAS - 58, 132
MINNESOTA - 80, 81 LAS VEGAS: Jalen Hurts, QB SEATTLE: Ross Blacklock, DL BALTIMORE: Akeem Davis-Gaither, LB TENNESSEE: Damon Arnette, DB GREEN BAY: Lucas Niang, OL KANSAS CITY: Terrell Lewis, EDGE SEATTLE: Ben Bartch, OL
Round 3: BUFFALO: Curtis Weaver, EDGE WASHINGTON: Cole Kmet, TE DETROIT: John Simpson, OL NY JETS: Jonathan Greenard, EDGE CAROLINA: Shane Lemieux, OL MIAMI: Lloyd Cushenberry III, OL LA CHARGERS: KJ Hamler, WR ARIZONA: Jonathan Taylor, RB JACKSONVILLE: Bryan Edwards, WR CLEVELAND: Ashtyn Davis, S NEW ORLEANS: Cam Akers, RB TAMPA BAY: Justin Madubuike, DL SAN FRANCISCO: Jordan Elliott, DL ATLANTA: Jake Fromm, QB NY JETS: Troy Pride Jr., DB MINNESOTA: Terrell Burgess, S MINNESOTA: Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR DALLAS: Adam Trautman, TE DENVER: Prince Tega Wanogho, OL LA RAMS: Jordyn Brooks, LB DETROIT: Tyler Johnson, WR BUFFALO: Zack Moss, RB NEW ENGLAND: Hunter Bryant, TE NEW ORLEANS: Bryce Hall, DB MINNESOTA: Logan Stenberg, OL HOUSTON: Jeremy Chinn, S LAS VEGAS: Malik Harrison, LB BALTIMORE: Anfernee Jennings, EDGE TRADE:
NEW ENGLAND - 93
TENNESSEE - 100, 195 NEW ENGLAND: James Morgan, QB GREEN BAY: Jacob Eason, QB DENVER: Tyler Biadasz, OL KANSAS CITY: Matt Peart, OL CLEVELAND: Logan Wilson, LB LAS VEGAS: Davon Hamilton, LB NY GIANTS: Matt Hennessy, OL TENNESSEE: Van Jefferson, WR SEATTLE: Kenny Willekes, EDGE PITTSBURGH: Leki Fotu, DL PHILADELPHIA: Troy Dye, LB LA RAMS: Amik Robertson, DB MINNESOTA: Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR BALTIMORE: K'Von Wallace, S
DENVER - 10
CLEVELAND - 15, 77, 118
Andrew Berry wants Ezra Cleveland, but a top 10 pick is a little rich for him. John Elway wants Henry Ruggs III, but he won't be there at 15. Berry moves back, picking up valuable draft capital to secure rookie contracts for when the bill eventually comes due on the Browns players and they can't afford to extend everyone.
NEW ENGLAND - 19
LAS VEGAS - 23, 98
Suggesting the Patriots trade up in any mock draft is a dangerous endeavor, but they also have an absurd number of picks in this year's draft. Giving Las Vegas a compensatory third to move up and get your pick of the draft's top LBs isn't too bad a price to pay.
INDIANAPOLIS - 24
NEW ORLEANS - 34, 75, 193
New Orleans really doesn't have a lot of positions of need this year, and make fun of me if you will, but I buy that Sean Payton is okay with Taysom Hill playing QB for at least a season if need be. That isn't to say the Saints won't draft a QB, just that they won't reach on one at the end of the first and without a second round pick. The Colts on the other hand will - especially if they value Jordan Love as highly as others have speculated in the past month. Indianapolis gets to take advantage of the Saints wanting to trade down and gives up less than they'd ordinarily have to in order to get back into the first round.
CLEVELAND - 31, 210
SAN FRANCISCO- 41, 77
San Francisco lacks draft capital given their trades for Dee Ford and Emmanuel Sanders, but has needs. The Browns moved back earlier because Ezra Cleveland is their guy. Berry can't afford to let him go and can get back into the 1st round for a fair price given the Niners need for 2nd and 3rd round picks.
NY JETS - 40
HOUSTON - 48, 120
WRs haven't fallen off the Board the way many have thought they would at the start of Round 2, but the Niners would be sure to start that trend, potentially with Pittman. As much as Gase likes smaller, fast receivers, the Jets desperately need a big guy who can work with Darnold. Pittman and Darnold have the USC connection already, and it makes sense to move ahead of San Francisco to get him.
MIAMI - 45
TAMPA BAY - 56, 154, 173, Future 4th
With WRs beginning to fly off the Board and Brandon Aiyuk still there due to injury concerns, Miami trades up to get him. Tampa Bay, lacking a ton of immediate needs having already added a T, gets extra draft capital in exchange for moving back to a point where at least one of the top four RBs should remain.
CINCINNATI - 54, 167
BUFFALO - 65, 107
This is a tough one. There are a number of rumors that Cincinnati is enamored with Willie Gay Jr.'s athleticism and ball instincts. If that's true, there could be legitimate fear that the Ravens could take him at 55 or 60 given their needs. The Bills need picks given their trade for Diggs. The Bengals make the call to get ahead of an in division rival for their guy.
LAS VEGAS - 58, 132
MINNESOTA - 80, 81
It's no secret that John Gruden loves his QBs and I think there's a legitimate chance the QB he likes in this draft class that's within reach for him is Jalen Hurts. Getting back into the second round allows him to be the first to take the QBs not projected to go in the first round.
NEW ENGLAND - 93
TENNESSEE - 100, 195
There have been rumors that the Patriots' favorite QB prospect in this draft is James Morgan given his arm and the New England climate. Similarly, he's tied to Green Bay who just so happens to be on the clock at 94. If the rumors are true, Belichick should be willing to pull the trigger to move up and get him.
By Team: ARIZONA:
1.8 - Derrick Brown
3.72 - Jonathan Taylor
1.16 - K'Lavon Chaisson
2.47 - Noah Igbinoghene
3.78 - Jake Fromm
1.28 - Cesar Ruiz
2.55 - Laviska Shenault Jr.
2.60 - Akeem Davis Gaither
3.92 - Anfernee Jennings
3.106 - K'Von Wallace
3.65 - Curtis Weaver
3.86 - Zack Moss
1.7 - Isaiah Simmons
2.38 - Neville Gallimore
3.69 - Shane Lemieux
2.43 - Trevon Diggs
2.50 - Kyle Dugger
1.1 - Joe Burrow
2.33 - Isaiah Wilson
2.54 - Willie Gay Jr.
1.15 - Javon Kinlaw
1.31 - Ezra Cleveland
3.74 - Ashtyn Davis
3.97 - Logan Wilson
1.17 - Jerry Jeudy
2.51 - Cameron Dantzler
3.82 - Adam Trautman
1.10 - Henry Ruggs III
2.46 - Jeff Gladney
3.83 - Prince Tega Wanogho
3.95 - Tyler Biadasz
1.3 - Jeff Okudah
2.35 - Marlon Davidson
3.67 - John Simpson
3.85 - Tyler Johnson
1.30 - Jalen Reagor
2.62 - Lucas Niang
3.94 - Jacob Eason
2.48 - Netane Muti
3.90 - Jeremy Chinn
1.24 - Jordan Love
2.44 - Tee Higgins
1.9 - CJ Henderson
1.20 - Kenneth Murray
2.42 - Antoine Winfield Jr.
3.73 - Bryan Edwards
1.32 - AJ Terrell
2.63 - Terrell Lewis
3.96 - Matt Peart
1.6 - Justin Herbert
2.37 - Austin Jackson
3.71 - KJ Hamler
2.52 - JK Dobbins
2.57 - Netane Muti
3.84 - Jordyn Brooks
3.104 - Amik Robertson
1.12 - CeeDee Lamb
1.23 - Kris Fulton
2.58 - Jalen Hurts
3.91 - Malik Harrison
3.98 - Davon Hamilton
1.5 - Tua Tagovailoa
1.18 - Xavier McKinney
1.26 - Josh Jones
1.39 - D'Andre Swift
1.45 - Brandon Aiyuk
3.70 - Lloyd Cushenberry III
1.22 - Yetur Gross-Matos
1.25 - Jaylon Johnson
3.80 - Terrell Burgess
3.81 - Donovan Peoples-Jones
3.89 - Logan Stenberg
3.105 - Antonio Gandy-Golden
1.19 - Patrick Queen
3.87 - Hunter Bryant
3.93 - James Morgan
2.34 - Zack Baun
3.75 - Cam Akers
3.88 - Bryce Hall
1.4 - Tristan Wirfs
2.36 - Josh Uche
3.99 - Matt Hennessy
1.11 - Jedrick Wills Jr.
2.40 - Michael Pittman Jr.
3.68 - Jonathan Greenard
3.79 - Troy Pride Jr.
1.21 - Justin Jefferson
2.53 - Grant Delpit
3.103 - Troy Dye
2.49 - Robert Hunt
3.102 - Leki Fotu
1.13 - Andrew Thomas
2.41 - Denzel Mims
3.77 - Jordan Elliott
1.27 - Julian Okwara
2.59 - Ross Blacklock
3.64 - Ben Bartch
3.109 - Kenny Willekes
1.14 - Mekhi Becton
2.56 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire
3.76 - Justin Madubuike
1.29 - AJ Epenesa
2.61 - Damon Arnette
3.100 - Van Jefferson
1.2 - Chase Young
3.66 - Cole Kmet
2020 NFL Draft Review FINAL - AFC West + links to all divisions - Analysis and Career Predictions for Each Team's Draft Class
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The AFC West is the final division in the 2020 NFL Draft review series. Catch up on the other installments of this 2020 NFL Draft review series
with the NFC West
, AFC South
, NFC South
, AFC East
, NFC East
, AFC North
, and NFC North
Every year after the draft, I write a way-too-long review of each team’s draft
. The purpose of this draft review is to give predictions for the careers of each team’s drafted players. I’ve watched film of each player I’m commenting on. Draft grades are overly optimistic and unrealistic. Unlike the majority of post-draft coverage out there, I will pick busts. Keep in mind that 23.4% of all first-round picks bust
Let me preface this by saying: predicting the career of an NFL draft pick is a ridiculous exercise. There is so much unknown that goes into whether a player succeeds or fails at the next level. I can make educated guesses based on team situation, supporting cast, and research about the prospect’s character and work ethic, but there’s a reason teams make so many mistakes every year. You simply don’t know for sure how a player will react to being a pro. Injuries are also a huge factor in the fate of a player and impossible to predict accurately. Nevertheless, this is a fun exercise and gives us a chance to review how each team approached the draft.
Before we start, here are some of my general thoughts on the 2020 NFL Draft.
Quickly on the broadcast - they did a great job given the circumstances. The production quality was great and they did more actual analysis than usual. My main gripe with draft coverage every year is that they don’t show incredible highlights (they somehow didn’t show the Aaron Dobson catch
in 2013). This year, they showed more footage of actual football and I appreciated that. The only two negatives for me were the constant tragic stories and Booger McFarland.
Oh, and if any poor soul bet on Justin Jefferson
Under 21.5 draft position, ESPN should apologize to you. They showed him on the phone celebrating right before cutting to Goodell announcing the 21st pick - Jalen Reagor
to the Eagles. Jefferson was of course on the phone with the Vikings, who took him at 22. Brutal beat.
As for the draft, remember this tweet about mock drafts being “wronger” than ever
? Funny, this was probably the chalkiest first-round ever in the internet age. Nothing was truly shocking to me, including the Packers trading up for Jordan Love
(more on that here
). I had Damon Arnette in the first round in my first mock draft this draft season
. I wrote an article lauding Jordyn Brooks as an undervalued commodity
. Noah Ibinoghene going in the first was surprising, I suppose. But there was no Clelin Ferrell at No. 4 or Tyson Alualu at No. 10. It speaks to how the media and internet scouts might be catching up to, or God forbid actually influencing the teams.
So here is the next installment of my annual draft review. Each player will receive their career prediction in parentheses following their name. For example: Joe Burrow
(5). Here's how the picks break down: 5 – All-Pro:
Starter who has performed at an elite level at his position. 4 – Above-Average:
Starter who has been among the best at his position. 3 – Solid:
Starter or valuable back-up with significant positive production. 2 – Replacement Level:
Below-average starter or back-up who made minor contributions. 1 – Bust:
Player who didn’t amount to anything positive.
Next up, the AFC West.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders came into the draft with needs at wide receiver and cornerback. They wasted no time addressing those positions and ended up taking two corners and two-and-a-half wide receivers total. I think they aced this draft, but not for the reasons you might think.
Las Vegas opted for speed over production by selecting Henry Ruggs III
(3) as the first receiver off the board. Ruggs played a supporting role alongside lead dog Jerry Jeudy
at Alabama, but ran a 4.28 at the combine and aced the draft process. His speed popped on film, as he routinely cribbed slants and ran by people in the SEC. Ruggs was lauded for his competitiveness and edge
, particularly as a blocker, which directly conflicts with my notes of his film. I noted missed blocks, him getting tossed, and labeled him as “weak.” Perhaps I watched the wrong games or my standards are too high.
As far as receiving the football, Ruggs was fantastic, making highlight diving catches and using his hops to climb the later and show off his above-average hands. There are two major unknowns with Ruggs - how he will deal with being the No. 1 option, and how he will develop as a route-runner. Unfortunately, I do not believe he will live up to his physical attributes. Derek Carr ranked 25th in Air Yards Per Completion last year
, and while accurate, has never excelled at utilizing a deep threat. I also have a hard time endorsing a player who was not the number one receiver on his own team to be the number one receiver in a loaded draft class.
At No. 19, the Raiders took Damon Arnette (3), which was a surprise to some. I had Arnette going in the first round in my first mock draft of the year
and liked his film more than most. His skillset is that of a quality starting corner, despite unorthodox technique and tendencies. Arnette’s play was up-and-down at Ohio State, in part due to being thrown at so much. He showed weird stances and punches from all different angles and body alignments in press coverage, but generally got the job done.
At the NFL level, if unique individual technique is effective, coaches don’t care. Arnette is more comfortable in press than off and will give up the inside. Most importantly, he can get his head around defending vertical routes in man. He was competitive and alert on film, flying down in run support and showing the necessary swagger and short memory needed from a pro corner. He’s going to get beat, but I like his transition to the league as someone who’s been picked on a bit but kept getting better.
At No. 80, the Raiders took one of my favorite players in the draft in Lynn Bowden Jr (4). Lynn Bowden Jr.
played quarterback and receiver at Kentucky and is most known for throwing a punch in a pre-game scuffle before the Belk Bowl
. Bowden’s film is that of a grown man with an edge. His receiver film shows nothing in terms of advanced route-running, but his speed absolutely plays and his hands are good enough. His quarterback and returner film shows joystick moves in the open field and elusiveness that rivals Lamb and Shenault. I don’t know if he’s a pro wide receiver (neither do the Raiders), but I’ve seen too many converted quarterbacks have success to bet against his natural football traits. I expect Jon Gruden to use him all over the field and for him to be one of the most explosive swiss army-knife weapons of this generation.
With the very next pick, the Raiders again took one of my favorite players in Bryan Edwards
(4) of South Carolina. Edwards was the No. 15 overall player on my board
so I obviously loved this pick. Aside from injury concerns
and a few miscommunication issues working the boundary with his quarterback, Edwards’ film was outstanding. He’s technically sound with strong hands, tremendous contact balance, evidence of beating press, and great concentration skills. As a physical run-after-catch threat, he’s dynamic and strong. He is the prototype big-bodied NFL receiver in terms of traits, plucking the ball and transitioning as a runner smoothly. I predict he’ll be better than Ruggs. He just needs to get and stay healthy.
I think Tanner Muse (2) can be a special-teamer (tripping up J.K. Dobbins
was a gigantic play in the National Semifinal), and John Simpson (3) was a steal. I love mauler guards who fall due to a lack of quickness. Simpson is physical and sometimes dominant in the run game. His stance gives away pass or run, but he can be coached and work on his body to develop into a starting guard.
The Raiders took yet another one of “my guys”
in Amik Robertson (4) at pick No. 139. I had Robertson ranked 75th overall and featured him in this article
. Robertson is tiny and his film isn’t without flaws, but I am always a proponent of taking players whose main knock is lack of size. I think Robertson will struggle with the brute size and strength of NFL football, and I actually don’t think he’s that fast (didn’t run a 40). But as far as being a pure football player and having coverage instincts and ball skills, Robertson is unbelievable.
Robertson plays big, talks a lot, and backs it up. He jacked up the 6-6 Collin Johnson
at the line of scrimmage and almost mossed No. 16 on Texas. He’s able to match everything, has a smooth pedal, and gives up almost no separation in man. Slight jersey tug but disciplined hands play in the league. His production at the college level was unreal - 14 interceptions, 2 blocked kicks, 3 defensive touchdowns, and an onside kick return for a touchdown. I worry about his tackling, but I project him to be one of the best slot cover men in the league.
The Raiders chose to stick with Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota
, despite having enough draft ammo to move around and take one of the quarterbacks. I loved what they did with most of their picks. Carr now has more weapons and zero excuses. This is a huge year for him.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers came into the draft with primary needs at quarterback and inside linebacker. They addressed those needs in the first round, selecting the No. 3 and No. 8 players on my board
The madmen did it. They took Justin Herbert
(4) at 6. After being inundated with negative Justin Herbert analysis, I went back for a second look at the former Oregon Duck. In terms of college performance, Herbert’s film is reminiscent of recent busts, including Mitchell Trubisky
. He lacks ideal anticipation, inexplicably misses some throws, and wasn’t always trusted by his coaching staff. It is also fair to wonder about his transition, coming from a screen-heavy, spread system at Oregon.
However, evaluating NFL prospects is not just about college performance - it’s about projecting traits. Scouting quarterbacks is difficult, and there’s a reason so many teams miss. A lot of times teams fall in love with physical traits such as arm talent and are burned because the player struggles with the complexities, speed, and decision-making difficulty of the NFL game. I believe a critical look at Herbert’s film through the lens of traits-based scouting gets him to potential franchise quarterback level worthy of a high pick. Like with all prospects, his ultimate NFL fate will come down to a lot of surrounding and unknown factors such as situation, coaching, and intangibles. I will pick my No. 3 overall prospect to succeed. His traits are that of a franchise quarterback and his intelligence and athleticism will help his transition.
Arm talent, throwing on the run, short-level accuracy, ball handling, and mobility make Justin Herbert the complete package in terms of traits. He poorly placed just one throw under five yards in the games I watched. He has good footwork, touch, and excels with play-action. The translatable trait that makes me confident is his ability to look like the best player on the field in the face of pressure. Herbert can move around and deliver strikes on the run or simply use his legs as a weapon. He also showed the ability to go through full-field "rainbow" reads. Players with his running ability can afford to not be the most accurate passers in the world. He showed off his rushing skills in the Rose Bowl win against Wisconsin.
I understand the negatives, but with good coaching, I think Herbert can develop into a franchise quarterback as a mix between Josh Allen
and Cam Newton.
After selecting their quarterback at 6, the Chargers traded up for the best inside linebacker in the draft in Kenneth Murray (5). Murray had a productive and storied career at Oklahoma, displaying all the traits of a great pro off-ball linebacker for the Sooners. His speed and instincts make him a sideline to sideline threat, and he has the strength on contact of a thumper. His tackling technique is terrific, pointing to his ability to be coachable. He’s a little out of control at times, but he’s better than Devin White. The move up was worth it.
The Chargers want to bring Justin Herbert along slowly
, and will look to make the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor
as the starter. The surrounding talent is enough to take them there. With young stud defenders at all three levels, the Bolts just need to build an offensive line and add weaponry for Herbert to compete with the Chiefs in a few years.
The Broncos came into the draft with a clear plan - get Drew Lock
some weapons. To say they achieved their goal would be an understatement. Their haul included my No. 7 overall player and my No. 1 tight end.
Jerry Jeudy (5) suffered from some prospect fatigue as analysts scrambled to poke holes in his game. While most of his success did come from the slot at Alabama, it’s not like his traits don’t translate to the outside. In Denver, Jeudy can man the slot primarily, whereas if he went to the Jets he may have had to learn an entirely new position. The only question about Jeudy is whether or not Drew Lock is good enough to allow him to reach his extremely high ceiling.
Jeudy has amazing quickness, length, and top-notch speed, but is known most for being an outstanding route-runner. He is the best route-runner I have ever scouted in college. He understands the nuances of changing speeds, is quick with a plan, and shows an uncommon ability to separate that surely translates to the pro game. He’ll be a star if Drew Lock proves to be competent.
With their second pick, the Broncos doubled down on wide receiver with K.J. Hamler
(2) of Penn State. Hamler is the prototypical deep threat and an excellent complement to Jeudy and Courtland Sutton
in theory. He might be too small for the NFL, but his college film shows route-running ability on slot fades and out routes that rival most pros. His main weaknesses are due to his lack of size, as he struggles in contested catch situations and is dominated by strength in terms of ball security.
Hamler made a couple of tremendous sliding catches but does not display much in terms of hands an almost exclusively body-catcher. It’s a common misconception that receivers are never taught to catch with their body as coaches will teach it in certain situations. Hamler can succeed in the NFL, but there are too many mouths to feed in Denver for him to be more than a situational deep threat.
Michael Ojemudia (2) has the athletic profile and size to be a starter, but his film doesn’t show the natural football traits of a pro. He isn’t physical enough and doesn’t show great awareness in zone, letting receivers get behind him.
Lloyd Cushenberry (2) was one of the most overrated prospects in the draft. He’s a classic case of a decorated collegiate who gets overdrafted due to great character. He was beaten badly by the Texas nose tackle and generally lacks balance.
McTelvin Agim (1) was overdrafted as a former five-star recruit who didn’t dominate in the SEC. He has the size and tools to be a rotational defensive lineman, but plays too high and bends at the waist, losing leverage and balance too easily.
Denver's best pick after Jeudy was Albert Okwuegbunam
(3). His size/hands mix is rare and his physical ability is special. After last season I thought he’d be a high pick, but he never seemed to put it together. He’s an instant red-zone threat as a project with huge upside.
The draft community is giving high praise to this Broncos class. I think they nailed their first pick but wasn’t overly impressed with the rest of the haul. Denver’s defense is loaded with talented veterans and a returning Bradley Chubb, so Drew Lock’s progress will be an intriguing storyline in the AFC Wild Card race.
Kansas City Chiefs
Congratulations to the Chiefs and their fans on winning the Super Bowl. The World Champs came into the draft without any pressing needs and selected three extremely talented young prospects with their first three picks. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
(4) is a perfect fit in Andy Reid’s offense. My No. 2 running back, CEH reminds me of Maurice Jones-Drew. His lack of height is a non-issue, if not a positive, as he gives defenders a small target on his way to eluding tacklers and making guys miss. He's short but sturdy. His film against Alabama was inspiring, breaking tackles and moving piles against defenders twice his size. His best trait is his ability as a receiver, showing advanced route-running skills and soft hands. He’s competitive, fiery, and tough.
While he didn’t quite excel against the Georgia pros, he’s going to have so much space with Patrick Mahomes
it’s scary. His 4.6 40 shows a lack of ideal long speed, but his ten-yard split was among the best for running backs at the combine
. Amazing fit, PPR fantasy points everywhere.
Willie Gay Jr. (3) has very inconsistent film and character red flags
. Andy Reid took a chance on Marcus Peters years ago, who has had a very good pro career. The Chiefs culture should keep Gay on the right track. His film in 2018 was better than 2019, as he had more splash plays and tackled better. In 2019, some of his film showed poor angles and undisciplined missed fits. His speed plays and if he puts in any work at all his floor is a talented special teamer. I think Reid gets the most out of him and he starts at linebacker as a rookie. The burst and pop when he hits people is impressive.
Lucas Niang (3) has a very ugly body, but I liked his film a lot. He has a small lower half and is fat up top, which teams usually don’t like. He can be effective and quick, and has functional strength and movement skills despite his odd shape. I had him at No. 39 on my big board and project him to be a starting right tackle whenever the Chiefs need one. Solid pick.
The Chiefs have the best player in the NFL and a good enough defense. They should be favored to win it all again. The main takeaway from this class is that Andy Reid running backs are fantasy gold and he just got one that fits his scheme perfectly.
That wraps up the 2020 draft review series. Thank you so much for reading. On to 2021!
AFC West article with gifs: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-afc-west/737495
NFC West: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-west/737289
AFC South: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-afc-south/736898
NFC South: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-south/736460
AFC East: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-afc-east/736202
NFC East: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-east/735919
AFC North: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-afc-north/735564?src=cat_feat_9954
NFC North: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-north/734932
i_Milk's Official 3 Round Mock Draft
Disclaimer #1: This is based on what I would do not what I think will happen submitted by i_MiLK to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]
Disclaimer #2: This mock will include trades
1.01 CIN - Joe Burrow QB LSU
1.02 WAS - Chase Young EDGE The Ohio State
Trade: MIA receives 1.03. DET receives 1.05, 2.39, 2.56, & 2021 MIA 2nd
1.03 MIA via DET - Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama
In a bidding war between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Miami Dolphins, Miami just has too much draft capital to spend for their QB of the future. If this was a normal year where teams would be able to get Tua in their building for updated medicals, then I'd be much more willing to spend extra 1st round capital to trade up and get him for either LA or Miami. The injury concerns obviously make this pick very risky, but some of it has simply come down to bad luck for Tua. When healthy, he's obviously an extremely talented passer who can cut apart a defense in so many different ways. Personally, I don't think the Fins are going to trade up for a QB. I think they want to keep as many draft picks as possible and are more than happy with either Tua or Justin Herbert at 5. However I have a solid gap between Tua and Herbert as prospects, so for me I feel like I need to go up and make sure I get my far and away top QB available.0
1.04 NYG - Jedrick Wills OT Alabama
I think this pick will be Isaiah Simmons come Thursday, however I would definitely be looking at taking one of these OTs at 4 for the G-Men. At the end of the day, Daniel Jones needs more help on the offensive line and specifically with his bookends. Nate Solder has been plagued by poor play since signing with the Giants, and Cam Flemming is much more suited to being a backup than relied on as a starter. With Wills, there might be freakier athletes in this OT class but I don't see anyone who has more pluses to their name than Jedrick. He's a very good athlete, has good length, and is probably the most technically sound OT in this draft class. Rarely is a pick ever "safe" but Wills is as good as it gets when it comes to tackle prospects in the NFL Draft.
1.05 DET via MIA - Jeffery Okudah CB The Ohio State
For the third time, duh
1.06 LAC - Andrew Thomas OT Georgia
So this pick has pretty much always been Justin Herbert, however I wanted to do something different and go through a scenario where the Chargers don't go QB. When I look at Herbert, I'd be okay with his currently development if he were a 2 year starter instead of a 4 year starter. I'm worried about some of the mistakes Justin makes with so much experience under his belt, however he dealt with numerous WR injuries in 2019 and Marcus Arroyo was (IMO) way too conservative in his play calling throughout much of the year (the Auburn loss in particular I blame a lot on Arroyo). There were flashes of Herbert being able to handle a heavier offensive load in 2019, however we never really got to see that come to fruition consistently. Herbert, like Jordan Love, really needs the right place to develop and I'm not sure the Chargers are it. I don't think it's a horrible place for him, with guys like Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, and Austin Ekler as targets. However that OL needs some serious work, and after playing with the best OL in the nation at Oregon I think the adjustment could be tough for Justin. Instead I want to experiment with a different route in Andrew Thomas. Thomas has SEC experience at both RT and LT, along with solid athleticism, technique, and amazing strength and length. Thomas is as solid as they come, and whether it's for Tyrod Taylor, another vet, or a young QB, he should be a rock on the OL for whoever the Bolts starter is in 2020 and in the future.
1.07 CAR - Isaiah Simmons DEF Clemson
My #2 overall player comes off the board to Matt Rhule and the Panthers here at 7. Carolina has a lot of needs, and at the end of the day I think they just need to take the most talented player on the board at their pick. Enter Isaiah Simmons, the do-it-all slot cornesafety/linebacker who has the talent and athleticism to transform a defense. Simmons isn't a 1-to-1 replacement for Luke Kuechly, but you need a similar type of game changer on the defense. I believe Simmons is that player, and he should provide day 1 impact to a team in a rebuilding phase. With Brian Burns at DE and Donte Jackson already at CB, now Carolina has a young building block on all 3 levels of their defense.
1.08 ARI - Tristan Wirfs OT Iowa
This pick has got to be on either the offensive line or the defensive line for the Cardinals unless a player like Isaiah Simmons or Jeffery Okudah falls to them. I think a guy like Javon Kinlaw makes a lot of sense here, however like with the Giants, I am most concerned with protecting my young QB. Tristan Wirfs is an other-worldly athlete who has P5 experience at LT and RT. In terms of athleticism and strength, Wirfs has a rare combination of both of those tools to work with at the NFL level. Tristan needs some more development in the technical department in the NFL, but even though the Cards have vets like DeAndre Hopkins, Chandler Jones, Larry Ftizgerald, and Patrick Peterson, I don't feel that they need him to be awesome from day 1 and they can just let him learn at his own pace. If you can develop Wirfs properly, you'll have a fantastic bookend for Kyler Murray for a very long time.
Trade: TB receives 1.09. JAX receives 1.14, 3.76, 4.117, & 2021 2nd
1.09 TB via JAX - Mekhi Becton OT Louisville
I think this trade makes a ton of sense for both sides. Jacksonville's roster has been gutted over the past couple needs, and they just need to get as many picks as possible to try and build back up their roster. Tampa acquired the services of Tom Brady in free agency, and their win-now window has become obvious. The Buccaneers have a really good offense with guys like Brady, Howard, Evans, Godwin, Brate, Marpet, and Jensen as well as a great offensive mind in Bruce Arians as head coach. At this point with where the Bucs are at, I'm most concerned with fortifying the rest of the OL and spending whatever draft capital I have to in order to do it. Becton is by far the best OT left on my board and he's worthy of this pick. He's an absolute freak with incredibly nimble, explosive feet at 6'7 364 lbs. Leverage will probably always be a bit of an issue for Becton since he's so big and I think he needs work on his hand placement, but at the end of the day someone that huge and that athletic will be able to stop plenty of pass rushers. For Tampa, your time is now so let's go get someone who will have an immediate impact protecting your new investment at QB.
Trade: DEN receives 1.10. CLE receives 1.15, 3.77, 3.95, 4.118 & 2021 3rd
1.10 DEN via CLE - Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama
With all 4 top OTs off the board, Cleveland has the freedom to trade down and get a couple more assets for missing out on their top need. Denver gets to jump up into the top 10 after trading out of the top 10 in the 2019 draft. With the top WR still available, this is a no-brainer choice for the Broncos to help round out their offense. Denver seems to be prioritizing a top WR in this draft to pair with Courtland Sutton and I feel like that's a great approach to take. While Henry Ruggs would also be a great fit in Denver, I just can't pass on the overall talent that someone like Jeudy brings. Route running, speed, YAC, production, Jerry has it all and an offense with Jeudy, Sutton, Fant, Lindsay, and Gordon should give Drew Lock all the weapons he needs to have a good sophomore campaign in the Rocky Mountains.
1.11 NYJ - Henry Ruggs WR Alabama
And well, here's my WR2 coming off the board. The Jets have made an effort to sign a lot of offensive linemen in free agency and while none of them are good enough to stop them from taking an OT in the 1st round, it does give them somewhat of a safety net in case they aren't able to get one of the top 4 OTs. Henry Ruggs is a top 10 rated player in this entire class for me and I feel like he'll be an absolute game changer at the NFL level. Ruggs has good hands, amazing speed, and really promising route running as an underclassman. Ruggs can win at any level and take any route to the house. Sam Darnold needs as much help on offense as possible and a playmaker like Ruggs will sure go a long way in making Darnold's life better in the Big Apple.
1.12 LV - CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma
Yeah this pick is another real easy one for me. The Raiders need another WR to complete their offense and give Derek Carr all the weapons he could hope for. With that OL, Lamb as a #1 option, Tyrell Williams, Renfrow in the slot, Waller at TE, and Jacobs at RB, Las Vegas should have one of the better offenses in the league if Carr can perform like a quality starting QB.
1.13 SF - Javon Kinlaw DT South Carolina
I don't necessarily think the Niners need to be desperate for a Deforest Buckner replacement, but in this spot the board just lines up perfectly to take a DT. Kinlaw is the best player left on my board and although San Fran already has a talented DL, they certainly could use a player like Kinlaw. With the top 3 WRs all off the board, that leaves SF the freedom to really take BPA and I love the fit for Kinlaw. He would be able to make an impact early while not having the pressure on him to develop right away with all the talent around him. This is a BPA pick that could really keep the gravy train rolling in the bay area.
1.14 JAX via TB - CJ Henderson CB Florida
Time for CB2 to come off the board. The teens are right around the sweet spot for CJ to go and a place like Jacksonville makes a lot of sense. With both Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye gone from the team, there's a large hole that needs to be filled in the secondary for the Jags and Henderson has the talent to help fill those holes. With long arms, great speed, smooth hips, and the ball skills to make plays on the ball, CJ can make an immediate impact in coverage for a team that needs to reload with impact players.
1.15 CLE via DEN - Kenneth Murray LB Oklahoma
This is a really tough pick for me, because nothing they can take here is particularly great value. I considered taking Denzel Mims just because I think he offers something a bit different to that WR room. I also considered safety here but with Karl Joseph, Andrew Sendejo, and Sheldrick Redwine already in house I just wasn't sure if addressing it with their first pick was the right move. At the end of the day I went with Murray because when I talked to Browns fans it seemed like LB was the other big need. I'm personally not a Takitaki fan but I'm a big Mack Wilson fan. With Mack having the main coverage responsibilities at the 2nd level, Murray can be allowed to do what he does best on passing downs and blitz the QB and make plays happen underneath. Murray can be slot into a starting spot immediately for Cleveland and make a terrifyingly athletic LB duo with Mack for years to come.
1.16 ATL - Kristian Fulton CB LSU
I know many might consider this pick a reach, but I believe that this is around the right value for Kristian Fulton. Fulton is still a talented corner with good, patient footwork and smooth hips. Fulton proved that he has the long speed to compete on the outside at the combine with a 4.46 40 yard dash. Fulton doesn't have great length, but he's got the athletic traits to still be a quality corner, and he gave many of the SEC's best WRs a ton of trouble as a CB. With the loss of Desmond Trufant, corner is solidified as the top need for the Falcons, and a player like Fulton will help in plugging up that hole on their roster.
1.17 DAL - K'Lavon Chaisson EDGE LSU
Another LSU Tiger comes off the board in the teens, the Cowboys have a number of options to consider here at 17. Even though a few corners are off the board, guys like Jeff Gladney, Trevon Diggs, AJ Terrell, and Jaylon Johnson could be considered in the first round. Safety is an option too with none of them being selected so far. However at this spot I went with a pass rusher since it's become a sneaky important need following the departure of Robert Quinn. Chaisson has the burst and hand usage to develop into a dynamite pass rusher on Demarcus Lawrence's opposite side. K'Lavon also has the discipline and strength to hold up as a stout run defender on the edge. Chaisson doesn't wow with amazing size or arm length, but he's got the necessary package of traits to be a quality DE in the NFL. He also had the honor of wearing the #18 for LSU this season, so his character and work ethic will not be questioned in the NFL either. After Chase Young if I had to bet on any other EDGE in this draft class being a successful pro, it would be K'Lavon Chaisson.
Trade: BAL receives 1.18. MIA receives 1.28, 2.55, 4.129, & 2021 3rd
1.18 BAL via MIA from PIT - Patrick Queen LB LSU
Well look at this, 3 LSU Tigers get selected in a row here in the middle of the first round. I think a trade up makes sense from Baltimore's perspective since they actually have a good amount of picks to work with and not a lot of holes on their roster. After trading away a couple 2nds to get Tua, Miami is able to recoup a 2nd round pick and move up 40 spots on day 3. The weakest spot on the Ravens team is at LB. They lost CJ Mosley to free agency in 2019, traded away Kenny Young to LA for Marcus Peters in-season, and lost Patrick Onwuasor in free agency this year. These departures leave a talent gap that needs to be filled, and with Isaiah Simmons and Kenneth Murray already off the board, Queen is clearly the best LB on the board and there's a significant gap between Queen and the rest of the LBs on the board. With a fairly desperate need and a big talent drop off, it makes sense for Baltimore to be aggressive in trading up for Patrick in their contending window.
1.19 LV via CHI - Jeff Gladney CB TCU
This is another easy pick for me to make. Gladney is my CB4 and final CB with a first round grade. Jeff brings the competitiveness that Jon Gruden absolutely loves, with ball skills and athleticism that should help him be a quality corner on the opposite side of Trayvon Mullen. Other than WR, CB is the biggest need for the Raiders but with the pair of Big 12 playmakers that I've taken for them in the 1st round, their roster rounds out really well and should be a tough team to play in a very competitive AFC West.
1.20 JAX via LAR - AJ Epenesa EDGE Iowa
I know AJ isn't the most popular prospect after a pretty disappointing combine, but I still think there's a lot of talent there to work with, and over the past couple seasons of Big 10 play we've seen how good Epenesa can be. With Yannick Ngakoue wanting out of Jacksonville despite receiving the franchise tag (we'll get to this later), The Jags will need a new running mate for Josh Allen with Calais Campbell also out of town. AJ Epenesa still flashes a lot of burst, flexibility, and hand usage off the edge despite the pedestrian combine numbers. On a defense where he can still make an impact but not have the pressure of being the #1 pass rusher, Epenesa and Allen could form to make a formidable pass rush duo on the outside for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
1.21 PHI - Justin Jefferson WR LSU
Justin Jefferson is actually my WR5 on my board, however I feel like the fit in Philadelphia is too perfect to pass up. Jefferson's combination of hands, athleticism, route running, and ball skills should fit very well to Carson Wentz, Doug Pederson, and that Eagles offense. With how much Pederson likes to keep defenses off balance with the quick game and RPOs, Justin should transition seamlessly into that offense and be an immediate contributor whether he's in the slot or out wide. Overall not only does Philly need athleticism at WR, but they also need reliability and with the receivers left on the board, no one is as reliable as Justin Jefferson.
1.22 MIN via BUF - Denzel Mims WR Baylor
And now here we are getting to my WR4. Mims has the traits you want out of an outside receiver wit his size, catch radius, and athleticism. His combine and senior bowl proved that he can run any route you want him to, and that he can also win against press and physical coverage. While this is somewhat a Stefon Diggs replacement, they are different body types and do some different things. What will be present from day 1 is the type of receiving threat that Mims can be, he'll win with his size and speed on intermediate and deep routes from day 1 and I think he'll be the product of some favorable coverages with teams worrying more about Adam Thielen. Minnesota needs to make some key picks for the talent they lost in the offseason, and I believe that Mims is a high upside pick that can help that offense keep on chugging even in Diggs' absence.
Trade: IND receives 1.23. NE receives 2.34, 4.122, & 2021 2nd
1.23 IND via NE - Justin Herbert QB Oregon
Finally we're seeing some QBs come off the board after the Chargers passed on Herbert at 6. I personally see Indianapolis as a much preferable spot for Justin's development compared to the Chargers. The main reason I believe this is for a couple reasons. 1. Having Jacoby Brissett and Philip Rivers would be really good for Herbert, as I feel like they have a less likely chance to force Justin into starting than Tyrod Taylor, who failed to Baker Mayfield off the bench in Cleveland. 2. Most of all though, I have more trust in Indy's OL compared to LA's. With Anthony Costanzo back after contemplating retirement, Quenton Nelson as one of the best young OGs in the NFL, and other solid starters on the OL, Justin will having comfort in his OL much more similar to his Oregon days than anything he could dream of for the Chargers. Having a target like TY Hilton and an all-around RB like Marlon Mack for the future as weapons doesn't hurt either. With Brissett and Rivers both on 1 year deals, Herbert can then take over the starting job after a year learning the offense and learning from 2 veteran QBs.
1.24 New Orleans - Jordan Love QB Utah State
Similar deal here at 24 with New Orleans. The Saints have a very limited number of holes on their roster and with Drew Brees getting older and older, this is the perfect spot for Jordan Love to develop. With coaches like Sean Payton and Pete Charmichael, a veteran HOF QB in Brees, a very good and young OL, and young weapons like Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, Love is in a prime position to grow his first year or two and then thrive as Brees' successor. I really feel like NOLA is the best possible place for Love to end up and I think the Saints could be able to keep the good times rolling after Drew with Jordan at the helm.
1.25 MIN - AJ Terrell CB Clemson
I actually have Trevon Diggs slightly above AJ Terrell in my CB rankings, however I think AJ is the better fit in Minnesota. Diggs is very raw since he's only been playing CB for a few years, and I feel like the Vikings need a corner who will offer better play in year 1 because of how many CBs they need and because the Vikings probably still fancy themselves as playoff contenders. Terrell offers versatility in coverage, great athleticism/speed, and great length as a boundary corner. I don't think AJ offers a ton in the way of playmaking like someone like Trevon Diggs does, but AJ is still a very solid CB prospect who should be considered here in the late 1st round.
1.26 MIA via HOU - Josh Jones OT Houston
I would love to take Lucas Niang at this spot, but I just can't bring myself to take not 1, but 2 players with serious hip injuries for a single team. Instead I'm going with the senior bowl standout in Josh Jones. I wasn't in love with Jones' feet or hand placement on his college tape, but he could absolutely rock any pass rusher on a punch with his heavy hands and he certainly has the athleticism to play tackle in the NFL. Even as someone who didn't love his Houston tape, even I have to admit he was fantastic down in Mobile and that performance has me more comfortable with the prospect of taking him in the 1st round, I just wouldn't do it in the early or middle parts of round 1. Other than QB though, OT is the biggest need for the Fins. With a QB like Tua who does his best work in the pocket and has had the injury problems he's had, you need to build a strong OL to keep him upright and Jones has the potential to be a rock at either tackle spot for Tua for a long time.
1.27 SEA - Lucas Niang OT TCU
Trust me, this late 1st round Seattle pick from TCU has much better film than the late 1st round Seattle pick from TCU in 2019. Niang had a hip injury that cost him the 2nd half of his senior season, but his 2018 tape is some of the best tackle tape of anyone in this class. Niang has nimble feet, strong hands, great length, and good athleticism when healthy to be a pass protector in the NFL. He's also a very powerful run blocker who has strength and athleticism in his arsenal. Seattle has needed to address their OL for a while now, while they did that a couple of years ago by trading for Duane Brown, Brown is getting older and they haven't done a ton outside of that. Now all of a sudden the Seahawks have a nice mix of vets and young guys on the O-line to help Seattle and Russel Wilson in their playoff contention.
1.28 MIA via BAL - Grant Delpit S LSU
I know that Delpit is an extremely polarizing prospect and has many detractors, but I still think Grant is the beset safety in this class and for me he still has a 1st round grade. I actually think this is a tad bit late for Delpit, however there just isn't a great spot for him above this where he fits better than the other prospects taken. Combine that with the fact that it's a deep safety class and now you can see why Delpit has fallen a bit. While his 2019 left something to be desired, Delpit's 2018 tape is still incredible and needs to be taken into account when evaluating him. His size, range, instincts, and playmaking are exactly what you want for a safety who can play in a number of roles. For Miami, after addressing their 2 biggest needs in QB and OT, I feel like they can just start taking BPA and at this spot in the draft, Grant Delpit is just about BPA for me.
1.29 TEN - Justin Madubuike DT Texas A&M
My surprise DT2 makes an appearance in the first round! I'm not really sure why the Titans traded away Jurrell Casey for a mere 7th round pick, but there's a definite hole in his absence that I feel Madubuike can fill. The reason that I have Justin rated higher over Derrick Brown is simply because I think Madubuike can offer more pass rush than Brown. Justin has fantastic burst to combine with hand usage and a good frame for an interior pass rusher. With 22 TFLs and 10.5 sacks the past 2 years as a DT for the SEC TAMU Aggies, Madubuike is a proven disruptor that will help replace some of the production lost from Casey.
1.30 GB - Brandon Aiyuk WR Arizona State
Once again an Arizona State WR finds himself in the back end of the 1st round. Aiyuk is a dynamite athlete as seen by his combine testing, who flashes a good ability to create separation in his routes and has a great ability to create with the ball in his hands. With so much attention going towards Davante Adams, Aiyuk should get plenty of chances to wreak havoc with the ball in his hands like he did in the desert in 2019. Aaron Rodgers needs more weapons on offense outside of Adams and Aaron Jones and Aiyuk should provide precisely the playmaking the Packers need.
Trade: DET receives 1.31. SF receives 2.39, 3.67, & 3.85
1.31 DET via SF - Yetur Gross-Matos EDGE Penn State
With all the extra draft capital that the Lions picked up from trading back with Miami, it allows them the freedom to jump back in the first round to a team that really need to trade out of 31 and get some more draft picks. With no 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round pick, San Fran trades back to 39 and gets an early 3rd and early 5th for their troubles. Even though Detroit gave up those picks, they still have plenty of good assets. Outside of corner, Detroit's next biggest need is probably at pass rusher. The Lions defense was pretty poor overall, and Trey Flowers needs a solid running mate opposite his side on the DL. YGM lacks a lot of consistency, especially against the best competition he faced, but he has all the traits you look for in a 1st round pass rusher. The Penn State product has length, explosiveness, and strength that you want out of a DE, and he doesn't have bad bend either. He needs to work on his hands and his plan as a pass rusher, but those were areas that he improved on a little bit last season. If he continues to improve in those areas, he could become a young cornerstone for a defensive revival in Detroit.
Trade: CAR receives 1.32. KC receives 2.38, 3.69, & 2021 3rd
1.32 CAR via KC - Derrick Brown DT Auburn
It's okay Derrick Brown fans, I still have the big Auburn man going in the first round. Carolina needs help in the trenches so with someone like Brown still on the board, it makes sense just to go up and get him before anyone else can. I think Derrick has some serious limitations in terms of his upside as a pass rusher, but he should still be a damn good run defender and with his size he'll be able to always make an impact in the NFL. Kansas City shouldn't feel any desperation at 32, and being able to get a couple of 3s to move down a handful of spots is fine business for a team that doesn't really have a prospect staring them in the face that they have to take at 32. I think this is a sensible deal for both sides.
2.33 CIN - Lloyd Cushenberry IOL LSU
2.34 NE via IND from WAS - Laviska Shenault WR Colorado
2.35 DET - Cesar Ruiz IOL Michigan
Trade: JAX receives 2.36. NYG receives Yannick Ngakoue
2.36 JAX via NYG - Xavier McKinney S Alabama
2.37 LAC - Jalen Reagor WR TCU
2.38 KC via CAR - Jaylon Johnson CB Utah
2.39 SF via DET from MIA - Bryan Edwards WR South Carolina
2.40 HOU via ARI - Terrell Lewis EDGE Alabama
Trade: WAS receives 2.41. CLE receives Trent Williams
2.41 WAS via CLE - Austin Jackson OT USC
2.42 JAX - Jacob Eason QB Washington
2.43 CHI via LV - Trevon Diggs CB Alabama
2.44 IND - Michael Pittman Jr WR USC
2.45 TB - D'Andre Swift RB Georgia
2.46 DEN - Prince Tega Wanogho OT Auburn
Trade: MIN receives 2.47 & 2021 5th. ATL receives 2.58 & 3.105
2.47 MIN via ATL - Matt Peart OT UCONN
2.48 NYJ - Isaiah Wilson OT Georgia
Trade: KC receives 2.49 & 2021 6th. PIT receives 2.63 & 3.96
2.49 KC via PIT - JK Dobbins RB The Ohio State
2.50 CHI - Jeremy Chinn S Southern Illinois
2.51 DAL - Bryce Hall CB Virginia
2.52 LAR - Tyler Biadasz IOL Wisconsin
2.53 PHI - Ashtyn Davis S Cal
2.54 BUF - Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin
2.55 MIA via BAL from NE - Cam Akers RB Florida State
2.56 DET via MIA from NO - KJ Hamler WR Penn State
2.57 LAR via HOU - Julian Okwara EDGE Notre Dame
2.58 ATL via MIN - James Lynch DT Baylor
2.59 SEA - Josh Uche EDGE Michigan
2.60 BAL - Zack Baun EDGE Wisconsin
2.61 TEN - Jack Driscoll OT Auburn
2.62 GB - Noah Igbinoghene CB Auburn
2.63 PIT via KC from SF - Neville Gallimore DT Oklahoma
2.64 SEA via KC - Donovan Peoples-Jones WR Michigan
3.65 CIN - Akeem Davis-Gaither LB Appalachian State
3.66 WAS - Adam Trautman TE Dayton
3.67 SF via DET - Ben Bredeson IOL Michigan
3.68 NYJ via NYG - Michael Ojemudia CB Iowa
3.69 KC via CAR - Malik Harrison LB The Ohio State
3.70 MIA - Ezra Cleveland OT Boise State
Trade: DAL receives 3.71. LAC receives 3.82, 5.165, & 5.180
3.71 DAL via LAC - Kyle Dugger S Lenoir-Rhyne
3.72 ARI - Ross Blacklock DT TCU
3.73 JAX - Cameron Clark OT Charlotte
3.74 CLE - Antoine Winfield Jr S Minnesota
3.75 IND - Jonathan Greenard EDGE Florida
3.76 JAX via TB - Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB LSU
3.77 CLE via DEN - Tee Higgins WR Clemson
3.78 ATL - Antonio Gibson RB Memphis
3.79 NYJ - Jabari Zuniga EDGE Florida
3.80 LV - Jalen Hurts QB Oklahoma
3.81 LV via CHI - Troy Dye LB Oregon
3.82 LAC via DAL - Matt Hennessey IOL Temple
3.83 DEN via PIT - Willie Gay Jr LB Mississippi State
3.84 LAR - Zack Moss RB Utah
3.85 SF via DET - Damon Arnette CB The Ohio State
3.86 BUF - Kenny Willekes EDGE Michigan State
3.87 NE - Brycen Hopkins TE Purdue
3.88 NO - Troy Pride CB Notre Dame
3.89 MIN - Cameron Dantzler CB Mississippi State
3.90 HOU - Darnay Holmes CB UCLA
Trade: PHI receives 3.91. LV receives 4.127, 4.145, & 2021 3rd
3.91 PHI via LV from SEA - Reggie Robinson II CB Tulsa
3.92 BAL - Lynn Bowden Jr WR Kentucky
3.93 TEN - Terrell Burgess DB Utah
3.94 GB - Cole Kmet TE Notre Dame
3.95 CLE via DEN from SF - Robert Hunt IOL Louisiana-Lafayette
3.96 PIT via KC - Van Jefferson WR Florida
3.97 CLE via HOU - Darrell taylor EDGE Tennessee
3.98 NE - Jordan Elliot DT Missouri
3.99 NYG - Isaiah Hodgins WR Oregon State
3.100 NE - Curtis Weaver EDGE Boise State
3.101 SEA - Amik Robertson CB Louisiana Tech
3.102 PIT - Hakeem Adeniji OL Kansas
3.103 PHI - Jordyn Brooks LB Texas Tech
3.104 LAR - Logan Wilson LB Wyoming
3.105 ATL via MIN - Markus Bailey LB Purdue
3.106 BAL - Ben Bartch OL St. John's MN
Would anyone want to read the rest of this story? Should I turn this in to a book?
How would I expand this? I want to write a book. submitted by baby_meatus to stories [link] [comments]
Junior year of University, I was approached by M(atty)M(oe) he was goading me to apply to a community service organization, the Bonner program, which rewards students accepted with a $5,000 check. Reluctantly, I applied and shockingly I was accepted into the program, which also included the aforementioned scholarship. Upon receipt of the scholarship check I stood at my mailbox for about 10 minutes $5000 seemed like a small fortune to me, a check of $5000 was almost license to drink myself into oblivion, or throw my fraternity a party completely funded by yours truly.
Nervously, I walked over to the registrars office of Stetson University and said; "Ummm I believe you’ve made a mistake, this check does not belong to me…" They tell me in return, "No that’s your award for being accepted into Bonner."
My head was spinning from the absolute good fortune of doggedly pursuing the philanthropic streak in me, and heeding MMs advice. I was trying to decide what to do with the money; "I could throw my fraternity a party…I could invest it, but any investment right now is suicide…I could buy a motorcycle…" I decided to go with motorcycle, not immediate suicide, I would at least get an dopamine rush on a daily basis. I might even attract a few girls!
Side note: the 'investment option" would have been the best option, I was presenting the equity: SNA, to the board of trustees for purchase into the school endowment portfolio, at time of check receipt, SNA (Snap-On), the equity I was presenting, was trading around $30-35/share (it touched $29/share on the day I made my presentation). At time of writing SNA was trading at $183.59/share. Upon receipt of the scholarship money that was gifted to me, for my good deeds towards humanity, I could have bought 5000/35 = 142 shares of SNA, 142*183=~$30,000. Though no (not) sane 20 year old kid would want to lock their money up for eternity and buy stocks and bonds, that is for old people… like 25 year olds.
I went down to Deland Motorsports with my best friend to browse a few insane 'crotch rockets,' Id learnt that an I-4, or inline 4 cylinder, motorcycle would be vastly overpowered for a 'squid*. Accepting this, I decided on a , very powerful Suzuki SV650s, a sane choice for a "noob."
With the final signature of some loan document (stupidly I wasnt not paying very close attention to the verbiage, or amounts - pretty incredible for a finance major) a sudden Dopamine wave went through my body. Holy shit, I thought, do I own another motor vehicle? Im going to get so many girls(!) but I am dating JL… Perhaps her friends will badger her incessantly, and she'll cave and bring another girl into the mix.
None of that happened. Though I did hook up with one if the 'hottest' girls at Stetson, MC, and she specifically said: "you look so 'hawt' riding your motorcycle back from intramural Soccer games, shirtless." Which I interpreted as a flirtatious vote lauding the purchase of that death machine, exactly the type of thing I had in mind when making the purchase. Then there was CZ, Im fairly certain she didn’t have a sexual motivation activated by the motorcycle, this was just a girl who was 'thirsty.' The summer between Junior and Senior year I was selected (incredibly) for an internship with Morgan Stanley, I remember getting the call, in April 2007:
"Hello, could we speak with Nicolas Uppal?"
ohhhh shit what did I do now? "Speaking" I said
"Congratulations Nicolas! You’ve been selected to be a Junior Financial analyst with the GWMG group at Morgan Stanley! You have two options: Beverly Hills or Downtown LA"
All my friends and family can tell you how I was constantly professing to 'adore city life,' and how 'I felt empty if I did not see anything in the sky.' However, the option laid out in front of me required some deliberation, time I did not have. "Uh uh uh Beverly Hills" I blurted out.
"Excellent choice we will send you a confirmation email with the next steps included. Welcome aboard."
Holy sh!t, I thought, im a rising Senior and I already have employment plans.
I immediately called my mother, and let her know the great news.
"I hope you & BPJ approve of this." Quickly explain the Morgan Stanley tale.
"Bien sur que il va etre excite, et mois aussi!"
"Awesome, I have class, talk to you soon, love you."
And with that I thought my future was coming together. I putted around campus for the remainder of my Junior and Senior years, occasionally riding out to Daytona beach, thinking: "this is so cool thank god for this helmet though, I didn’t have the cash to buy one there! Im glad the dealer included one with the sale." That call came at the perfect time to fully let loose over spring break.
For Spring Break; I went to Key West with GA, EM, CF, and DS - we had a blast. I don’t think there was a 5-minute space when all 5 of us were not drunk or high. Then, GA and I had the brilliant idea of renting 49cc scooters and terrorizing Duvall St. We were wrong, Duvall St. terrorized us, EM got into a fight with a bouncer at some popular bar on the strip on Duvall St. EM destroyed him, he just sat on the entrance steps as all 5 of us stumbled in, then 10 minutes and 5 drinks later, we stumbled out, mounted our scooters and safely made it back to our motel, this episode only reinforced my feeling of being invincible.
The next day GA and I were racing on the mopeds around Key West, seeing some traffic up ahead I decided to ramp on to the sidewalk and ride on the sidewalk and 'bunnyhop' down off the sidewalk, thus ensuring my victory. GA pulled up next to me laughing his ass off, from that point forward it didn’t matter if we were drunk, high, or both - we were jumping off sidewalks. Amazingly, none of us went down, except for CF who gave the scooter too much throttle on the sand, lost the rear end and the scooter fishtailed out from underneath him in some sand. Schadenfreude, I thought. Good thing im (slightly) more skilled at riding scooters.
We then had our final night out, just got really drunk didn’t do anything to prepare for the ride back up to Dea(d)land, and await the final 2 months of school.
In the final 2 months of Senior year I attended Ultra Music Festival, I was so in to progressive house and was known around campus for my love affair with House music. In fact DS and I hosted a radio show called "Techno story time," where we would 'drop' the sickest track we had heard during the previous week, and between tracks I would tell an 'R'/'X' rated story of the debauchery. Looking back on this, I must've seemed like such a douchebag, literally kissing and telling whoever had the misfortune of tuning in. Ultra (UMF) was in Miami a 7 hour drive, too pusillanimous to take 'Brutus,' (I wanted to keep him in excellent condition, keep the mileage low) I decided to take the motorcycle.
I recall that going to Miami on a motorcycle was so draining, but as always I was able to overcome that challenge and arrive in Miami with time to spare. I crashed on JLs brothers couch at UM, what an awesome guy for putting up with a smelly, dirty guy who was banging his sister. Damn, in retrospect, I cant really forgive myself for breaking up with JL a year later
At Ultra Music Fest had an awesome time, I didn’t do any drugs, get drunk, or makeout/flirt/hookup with anyone else or smoke Cannabis (although you could smell the cannabis smoke 2-3 miles away). On the drive back, I decided to go as fast as I could (actually I just really really missed JL and wanted to get to Stetson sooner) I remember having the bike at 135 MPH (engine speed limit, were it not for that or I wouldve gone much faster - so that speed limiter was a good thing) for ~30 minutes on the long and boring interior highway FL91. 91 to I-4 to US 17 to JLs arms!
The final 2 months until graduation were essentially a self-imposed retirement; I had no projects due, no finals and before leaving to Ultra Fest '09 I had just given my bond presentation. I was a free man - with no employment lined up. The drawbacks of going to a small, unknown and not-well-connected-outside-of-Florida school were beginning to become apparent
During graduation, I don’t know why I was so somber, I stuck around after graduating for a few nights to party with the boys and be with JL before I departed towards the unknown of adulthood. Upon returning to Atlanta I just assumed that I would be able to 'crash' in my old room, without having a job. Luckily, about 4 months in to my joblessness my great friend from school KD was able to hook up an interview for me with his company, AT&T. I interviewed well, but I really think KD had it already arranged to have me hired, they just wanted to vet me. I interviewed and was subsequently hired to do some business analytics/data cleaning. While working at AT&T I did great work making fun of my superior AM, however, I was not entirely clear on my task. I know I was supposed to measure the times from product purchase to online implementation. Beyond that, However the work was a sinecure until I was hired by MS. We moved buildings, 1 block to a massive, wide open cubicle farm, there may have been ~1000 cubicles in that room - and my cubicle was positioned so that the screen of my computer was visible to everyone who walked in.
Despite being assigned to a less than desirable spot. I worked, not hard but I made sure I completed all my tasks. About 2 months into my 'shafting' I decided to fly to FLL, Ft. Lauderdale, to visit JL, I missed her so badly. I didn’t just miss the sex, I missed the affection, I missed the unconditional love. I had no idea what it was that drew me so close to JL, but I kept going to her. While I was visiting JL she suggested that we go to a dog racing track, having only been to one before, I went to a dog racing track in Daytona Beach with AGs dad and my BFF NB, I agreed the event was not too memorable. However, on the drive back from the track I received a call from the connection I made during my internship with MS, the Managing Director of HR, CNG.
CNG informed me of a position in Coral Gables, Miami FL working with one of her friends JFG. Since I was already in Naples, 90 miles from Miami, I replied with: "I can be there to interview in two days…" With that I experienced another endorphin rush, I ffelt like my future was being laid out in front of me, I just had to secure this job, work my ass off, endure a few years of menial pay until I am promoted to 'Associate' and pay for JL to move in with me. This was especially alluring to me because it seemed like my best friends were getting amazing jobs; RL (my best friend) was working at a PE shop in ATL, and my good friend MS was consulting with McKinsey in Dubai, then again they went to awesome schools Emory and Wharton, respectively.
After my interview with JFG I drove back to Naples for a night before flying back to Atlanta,. It finally felt like I was entering adulthood. I got the position in Miami, I then attempted to put in my two weeks at AT&T when I tried to put in my two weeks my supervisor, AM, said: "No need, you don’t need to come back tomorrow." So with that I was a free man for 2 months, it felt eerily similar to finishing Stetson. I set about organising my departure and move to Miami.
I quickly realised that I was too poor to remotely make a down payment on a condo sight-unseen, so I meekly implored JL to ask her brother, RL, to allow me to crash on his couch for '1 week at most.' I felt like such a bum, living in the UM dorms, working for MS but not having a place to call my own. I had to make a change, so I went around my office asking if anyone needed or knew of anyone who needed a roommate. Luckily, a friend of my then boss, JFG, also had an analyst on his team, RM. We met and quickly agreed to cohabitate an apartment.
Living with RM was fairly easy, he was a very agreeable roommate, I think I pulled the best hand out of the deal,I made sure I got the master suite of the apartment while paying 10% less than RM, I feel like an asshole thinking back on it - but capitalism makes you do things against your human nature. We got into an ok apartment if it were not for the recession of 08-09 we would have never been able to afford it.
About 2 months after I finalized living with RM, Ultra '11 was gearing up, knowing that I was not earning enough to afford a $230 ticket, I begged JL to buy the ticket for our 2 year anniversary. She did! I thought; oh man I love this girl so much, I cant wait to spend the rest o my life with her. My friends GA and DS also were at UMF '11, we had a blast. None of us got too high, drunk or messed up, and strangely I never got GA or EM back to my apartment even though it was 2 blocks from Bayfront park.
I recouped for 12 hours, slept off the alcohol and cannabis, and showed up for work that Monday, probably looking like shit. A few months later, I decided to look up my Boss during my internship, GD. When we connected he was so glad to hear from me, he was unsure if I had been hired. Two calls later he gave me two things: a task to test a Mercedes E55 AMG(we were both gearheads), a job offer in Beverly Hills. Having just the task to test drive the car wouldve been enough, but a job offer in LA? My mind began racing, I had a flexible start date so I was able to gradually close things out and speak with my portfolio manager. Although a favor was called in to get me hired, JFG had no qualms about letting me go.
A month later I went out for my birthday with KG, we werent dating but she had an enormous crush on me, infact she came to Stetson to visut me, much to the chagrin of Jenny. We went to a few small bars, and ended up at club LIV, it was there I met the most beautiful girl I ever laid eyes on, Viviane G. from Rio, much to my amazement she was in to me as well (probably because at the time I had a head of black hair, this made me look like a Brazilian model). Vivi (as I called her) and I hit it off we spent the rest of my time in Miami together, we never kissed, this is why I felt ok staying with Jenny.
Then, a car and yacht show, 1 block from my apartment spurred the motivation to call and break up with Jenny, strangely. I thought Vivi was the woman of my dreams, I didn’t take in to consideration everything Jenny, and her family, had done for me
I took 2 months to finish up in Miami, going out every night to get the last feel of Miami nightlife before I ventured out to the great unknown west. Once again, like in Miami, I arrived in LA and had to 'crash' on my moms good friend LDs guest bedroom, until I got my situation squared away. I was able to quickly secure an apartment 2 blocks from Hollywood Ave., with a view of the Hollywood sign. "Oh man," I thought "I must be the flossiest Stetson graduate right now." I soon came to learn that DS was in LA too, we linked up and I found my smoking/drinking partner while I was in LA.
Work in the Beverly Hills branch of Morgan Stanley was not overly intense, I was just working with a few extra figures. This increase in amount magnified any mistake I made, and I made quite a few mistakes, luckily these were only mistakes on internal reporting documents my managers (one in Beverly Hills and the other in Boston) were pretty cool with it, but still pointed these mistakes out. I remember the team assistant, AT, being so gorgeous, she was taken, or I wouldve been all over that, I wanted to marry her. There were three women that I wanted to marry: 1 - Vivi, 2 - Jenny, 3 - AT
About 2 months in to living in Los Angeles AT, told me about the website Thrillist. I thought "wow Thrillist is so cool, all these awesome events…wait whats thus 'Rental Car Rally?'" The more I read about it, the more I became supremely interested and thought, oh man my friend GA would be PERFECT as my co pilot. I kept thinking about all the hijinks we would get in to, and the speeding, and the (name your debaucherous activity here). GA flew out to LA, we secured a rental Camaro SS coupe and headed for the rally.
We get to the staging area and we see a flood of other cars, buses, and people dressed in ridiculous outfits "this is going to be too much fun!" we said to each other. As the staging process moves on we see some incredible car decorations, and at the end of the pre-rally warm up we are given the option to race on a circle track, being the speed demons that GA & I were, we A B S O L U T E L Y took full advantage of that option. There was no passing allowed, and a quarter track length between each racer. We stage in line - our turn comes up and I bury the throttle, the rear tires barely having grip as we rocket onto the track, I didn’t dare to go above 125 MPH sine I was unsure about the condition of the tires. As we finished what was essentially a penis-size competition, I decided to do an enormous burnout in the middle of the track. After that burnout we were off to the races.
The rally was set up as a series of checkpoints, you have to take a photo at each checkpoint for proof you were there. First checkpoint: LA Zoo. Going to a zoo during the day is interesting, and smelly. At night however, its frightening different sounds and screams from other ralliers in the distance, we took a photo and drove, withi the speed limits, o course, to the next check point. This checkpoint was an abandoned ski lodge, perfect for messing around on abandoned ski lifts. After the ski lodge, we vebtured out into the desert, we only had 1 checkpoint between the LA Zoo and Vegas, and that checkpoint was on the very western edge of Nevada, a brothel - GA said he had no interest in buyin their "product," I remarked to GA how sad I as that I didnt "dip my pen in Dutch ink" while I was in Amsterdam with KD, yet I too was leery of getting some western Nevada 'strange.' We terorized a few trailer parks, doing insane burnouts and leaving the trailer parkhood in dust.
GA and I get to the strip, our rental Camaro SS was filthy, but we gave no fuc*s. We pull up the crappy little off-strip motel, a motel that was likely used by the hookers around Las Vegas, toss our bags on the floor and crashed for about 4 hours. Our room was right be the Lima Bean shaped pool so we could hear the fellow ralliers horsing around by the pool. Greg gets up, looks out the window, tosses me a Natural Light and says; "the only way to detox is to retox muthaf*****!"
To which I replied :"that’s excellent, but first pack a bowl beforeI shower to get this wester Nevada hooker scent off me…"
We both get out to the pool and EVERYONE rom the starting line is there, they were all really really drunk. Since I was a little tired, and wanted to be on my game for gambling that night, I didn’t drink or smoke. The night rolled around and we rustled up some grub on the strip, then we went to MGM to gamble: "Im not putting more than $50 down for chips…"
"Cool, imma do $100, you broke bitch" GA said.
We decide to play some slots (yawn), some Roulette (yawn), then I said I wanted to play some BlackJack. We walked up to the black jack table, waited for the dealer to reshuffle, and jumped in. I felt really smart so I thought I could count cards, after a few hands I started to turn a $5 to $10 to $20 profit, leaving me with $50, the exact same as I started with I thought: "ok, I can quit now, or go for glory, and put 80% down…" Me being the dumb kid I was, I decided to put $40 down and risk it all.
"ohhhh the little piker thinks hes got game!?" The dealer said
"Ehhhh" I replied
The cards come out and I get a 9 and a King.
"I bet you want a hit…"
"Nah, the only hit im taking will be the hit of Cannabis I take after I win this hand"
The dealer got a 5, Queen. "I bet you want a hit…" I said in a snarky tone
He took a card, a 7.
I said: "Id like to close out, please"
"Awwww poor kid cant play!?"
"Id like to close out, please"
"Ok tough guy"
I take my chips, get them cashed, and wound up with $95. I turned to GA: "I see how this can get addictive, I turned a 90% ROI!"
"We both laughed, piled into the Camaro, and GA drove us back to LA. GA hung out with DS for an extra day in LA while I was at work - about a month went by before my portfolio manager GD told me I needed to get to Boston to meet the other half of the team, I had only spoken to AS & SG on the phone, trying to explain how to use my messed up spreadsheets. Upon the meeting I figured: "Im already in the North East, I will swing down to NYC to visit RL, RN & MS.
The first night we were itogether, we just went out, got drunk, went to MS' friends apartment, but she wasn’t home yet. So MS and I decided to sleep, on the loor, in front of her door in a fairly swanky Upper East Side apartment. Early that morning MS and I were both awoken by a securoty guard kicking our feet: "uhhhh whats goin on here?"
"oh, sorry we got locked out by our friend she didn’t come home last night, do you all have a lounge?"
"yep, to the right of the front desk"
"Awesome, thank you"
MS and I slept on couches (what a luxury until JP came home. We got cleaned up and I grabbed my bag and went to MS, RN, and RLs apartment. Except it was a 2-bedroom. RL has converted a narrow, but very tall closet into a bedroom/loft. RL and I had been friends since high school, so I felt ok asking him if I could toss my stuff in his room. It was Saturday night, so we all got cleaned up, grabbed a pizza ate in, and got hyped for Saturday night.
"Where should we go?" asked RN.
Me:"I really wanna go to Pacha near westside highway! I get a podcast every week by them, and they have awesome music!"
RN asks:"Ok, everybody cool with Pacha?"
MS:"I wanna hit a college bar, maybe we go there to pregame, then Pacha?"
Me: "yeah that sounds splendifferous"
We set out, at the college bar, I ended up taking 3 shots and I was done for, I cant remember a thing. I stumble up to the bar and ask or a Heineken. "Ohhh is that for me?" An unseen girl asked
"Sure, if we go home tonight."
Not being able to believe my ears, I turned around and I see this really cuteAsian girl with her hand out.
"hmm youre pretty thirsty huh?"
"Like you wouldn’t believe" as she snatched the beer out of my hand
"Well maybe you can give me some private tutoring, so I do believe."
"Im a great teacher"
"Well, I kinda suck at school, anything you can do?"
"Well as far as sucking, I think we can work something out"
"well, Ill be sure to get you an extra juicy Apple"
We danced, occasionally kissing, and made our way back to RL, RN & MS' apartment. When we got there I realized I had no bed to sleep on, only a couch, but RL being the good friend he is said: "Y'all can sleep (wink) in my bed."
"The dungeon!? Yesssss. Thanks man."
So, this girl (didn’t and still don’t know her name) amble up the ladder, she was wearing a skirt and wanted to go first. "Ok I know where this is going…to the bed!"
"Aww cant we play teachestudent first?"
"Only if I get a taste of that Apple I brought you..."
The next morning was my flight out to LA at 4:56 PM, so I had time to grab brunch with the guys before I left. We ate on Chelsea Pier, I felt obliged to 'kiss and tell,' and extol them with my heroics. In retrospect, they probably didn’t want to hear it, I banged some random, probabky nasty girl on RLs bed. We finished lunch had some fun on Chelsea pier, and I flew back to LA. While back in Beverly Hills I was incredibly tire, but I took pride in recounting every detail to DV, knowing AT could hear. I stupidly thought: "if she hears how much fun im having, she might get jealous and want to hangout with me." I was such a devious little shit.
I finish telling DV just as GD walks in to hear the punchline; "…so I brought her back and got her on my friends bed!" GD walks to his station, with four screens (I used to think the ore screens you have the more of a boss you are, now I think the less you have to involve yourself with day-to-day, and intraday moves the more of a 'boss' you are) I can feel him staring at me smiling my ass of, he says "I WANT TO FU*KING HEAR!" So I launch into my tale (or should I say tail).
Later that week I called my father while biking to the gym. I called him because I made an error In the execution of a large fixed income trade, the price of the underlying security moved away from the price quoted, normally this would not matter since we had discretion over trading - meaning we would not need client approval. However, this was a trade for our largest client making a large fixed income purchase, so $.01 makes a big difference when the quantity purchased is in the millions. My father recounts this story to me as an almost emblematic admission of previous of apprehension towards him, and my subsequent of rectification.
As theNYC buzz began to wear off, I started going to bars around LA; SkyBar, and Viper Room one night my two buddies DS & DS, and I all agreed that we should go to Club Avalon, I was a huge electronic progressive house music aficionado so going to world famous club Avalon was *almost* as sweet as NYC with my bros. DS and I cohosted 'Techno Storytime' on the school radio, so we were super pumped to hear some much in the 110 - 130 BPM range.
Still feeling the nightlife buzz from NYC, I found myself able to easily to talk to girls. Doug and I were kinda wall flowers/club explorers, neither one of us has been to Avalon, but upon exploring it we both agreed, DS would love it too, we should start meeting there monthly. The night wore on, I found myself uninterested in paying $12.00 for a bottle if Heineken, so I started to hit on some women, DS and I had explored too much and I only had 30 minutes to seal the deal. So I got to work, quickly scored the number, but we got sidetracked talking about a subject I really, really enjoy; political analysis.
We talked political analysis I wish I could remember what she was saying, she was so on the ball, that awareness only increased my attraction to her. We talked for a bit, we went to the outside portion of the club, seeing her in the moonlight I thought; "shit, she is magnificent, screw AT if I land her. Her looks combined with her intellect make her a superwoman, exactly the type of woman I want carrying my seed. By this point 20 minutes had elapsed, and the club began emptying, "oh shit better seal th-"
"It was amazing talking to you, but I have to find my friends."
"Wait, maybe we…"
She was gone from my life, at least I had her number…
I moped back to DS, he asked me: "Howd it go man!?"
I started yelling that 'I couldn’t seal the f$%^ing deal!"
"Its cool man, this is a big city, im sure youll have other shots, lets catch a cab back to my crib, smoke a bowl watch a movie and forget about all this."
"Aight dude that sounds awesome."
So, we go out to the taxi area, DS and I just bullshitting, and he stop talking: "…so DS has this sick fader on his turn tab…. Wait, what was the name of the girl you were talking to?"
"D what the…."
"Oh Shit that’s Katie!"
He yells -"KATIE!!!!!!"
She turns around as she is getting in to her cab, with her buddies. I sprint over to her cab wrench the cab door open, and ride with the back to their apartment in Laurel Canyon. From here, I don’t have a clear memory of what happened but I woke up in my bed the next morning. "Shit" I thought, did I walk back to Franklin from Laurel Canyon? Guess I don’t need to work out today! So I rolled back over and dozed for another 45minutes until I get a text from the girl who was sweating me at the gym, CS.
A little back story on CR; I was always checking her out, so was always pushing her massive chest out when I would walk by and she was on a machine. Then one day she walked up behind me while I was doing pushups, waited for me to finish me set… "ninety eight…ninety nine…one hundered, I don’t know I you were listening there I did 100 pushups, ha ha ha
"Is that rom a movie???"
"Ohhhh, well lets see how you do with me riding yourback!"
CR straddled my back and plopped down. I pretended to not be able do any with her on my back. "Come on muscle man, make me ride you!"
"Um, im not sure I feel comfortable announcing to the gym that you want to fuck me"
"Who said that, that wishful thinking man…"
"How about we compare our wishes, what is a good night next week to take you to dinner?"
"I am a nurse so I work weird hours, but next Sunday night, lets get take out, a bottle of wine and some…youre from India right?"
"Ok, some Hindu Kush, sit on the beach in Santa Monica and share dinner."
"Whoa, yes ma'am!"
"Southern thing, I tell you about on Sunday night."
"Can't wait" She said with a smile
I left the LA Fitness on Hollywood BLVD. next to the Chinese Theater in a dream state. Then I realized that Sunday night was 2 nights away! Shit I need to get wine and a ton of Hindu Kush! I secured the Hindu Kush (too much), but not the wine, I wanted to get Red, and White to give her the option. Since I has just moved into my new apartment, I didn’t have time to set everything up, so I didn’t have time to buy a cooler to chill the white wine; "I will have to buy it the night of."
I searched my room and couldn’t find any more bud, so I decided to Meet DS and DS for dinner, we wound up going to a bar too - oops! Needless to say I didn’t get to pick up the wine, or the Kush, id have to pick it up before the date, tomorrow. "Hey do you guys know I any dispensaries are open on Sunday??
"They arent, but our friend owns one, he'll sell to you."
So, I contact DS and DS' buddy; I meet him and buy absolutely too much bud, and buy some gummies too, I swing back by my apartment on Franklin, drop off the dry bud" CR and I wont need that much, and get a call from DS, Ds and crew: "Yooo nuppal, were gonna go catch a movie, you down?"
"Yeah man lets do it!"
I quickly grab my backpack, remembering that I needed to pick up the wine, and knowing I needed to bring some bud. I hopped on my bike and roade over to East Hollywood to catch a flick with them. I pull up, get off the bike as theyre rolling up, I swing my backpack across, thinking im going to light up. I open the back pack… "Hey guys lets do this before…" Open the back pack a but more and reach in feeling for my bowl and the tupperware with the dry kush, and realizing that I hadnt unpacked the edibles that id bought. So, I skipped the dry bud and said: "hey guys I just bought these edibles, lets each grab some gummies and watch the movie…"
"Alright dude, but Edibles will hit when the movie is ending, but yeah man!"
So we take some gummies, and watch the movie. DS was right, the gummies did begin to take effect as the movie ended: "shit" I thought "Im gonna have to ride to Santa Monica while pretty high…no big deal, I hate riding high though." As Im riding down Sunset BLVD, heading west towards Santa Monica I happen to look up at the sky during a red light. The magnificence of a South-Western Southern California sunset is something everyone must enjoy, similar to the colors a Monet painting. I stared up at the sky for longer than the light was red, so people behind me became agitated. I quickly moved down Sunset blvd. at the famous (or infamous) intersection of Sunset Blvd. & Larrabee St. in West Hollywood.
Still mesmerized by the sunset, yet trying to focus, I see a clapped out For Expedition come from Larrabee, turning left onto Sunset the intended turn was in my path. I took a second to process "this is my path what the fuohhhh," going from euphoric joy to life saving maneuvers is not something they teach in MSF school, good thing I never went. After processing his intended trajectory I slammed on the brakes,
A part-time bartender at the Viper Room "didn’t see his red light due to sun" and was under assume every light is 'Green' for him. So he decided that even though there is traffic on Sunset, he would rather turn o make sure there was no traffic going in his intended direction on Sunset. I knew that grabbing too much front brake would send me headfirst into the pavement and his car, and into my coffin. So, I decided to overapply the rear brake, lay the bike down and hope for the best, I guess 'the best' of an inherently shitty situation did occur, I lived! However, while sliding through the Sunset & Larrabee intersection my back connected with the end of his passenger-side running board, my brand new Scorpion Exo-1000 hit the running board as well. Instantly knocked out. According to the report filed by the ambulance driver I was 'unresponsive' at the scene, but no external blood, save a bit of road rash were my jacket bunched up underneath my left arm, I suffered a 'severe' DAI brain injury (Diffuse Axonal Injury) and 26 brain bleeds.
Luckily, the ambulance ride was at most 8 minutes to Cedars-Siani Beverly Hills, this hospital was on my commute path to and from work, on Maple Dr. I always wondered what the building was, so much property in the heart of Beverly Hills however, this was NOT the method I intended to find out about this building. Must have been a funny scene in the office the next Monday. "Looks like Nick is late again" said AT
My dad gave me my first laugh post injury, we agree that laughter is the vanguard of healing mental and physical ailments.
Final Mock (With Trades)
Bengals - Joe Burrow QB LSU submitted by tfb1000 to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]
You have seen every reason as to why he should go to Cincinnati. He’s an Ohio kid, the reigning Heisman winner, and the best QB in college football this past season. It would be hard to justify taking anyone else here. Burrow is a winner, a leader, and will be the future of wherever he lands. Once he got the chance to accumulated at LSU we saw what happened. Burrow should be the number one pick.
Redskins - Chase Young EDGE Ohio State
I have seen plenty of film on Young. The truth is, it is very hard to find a fault in the man’s game. He probably has the highest expectations heading into the draft. For these reasons, I do not see Washington passing on him. They have drafted 3 first round D-lineman in the last 3 years and do have a plentiful of other needs including a tackle to replace Trent Williams and a corner to replace Josh Norman. Trading down a few picks to let someone take Tua here would probably be smart, but I believe they love Young too much.
Lions - Derrick Brown DT Auburn
This could be a trade down spot for Detroit but it seems in the recent days that QB’s may not go as high as originally thought. The Falcons may try to jump all the way up here for Simmons, but I am not sure they have the capital. The Lions have been linked a lot to Brown and reportedly fell in love with him over the recent weeks. After the atrocious defensive effort last season and letting Snacks Harrison go, and Brown will be a huge upgrade for the Lions.
Giants - Jedrick Wills OT Alabama
Another potential trade down spot. I think the Giants best bet is Isaiah Simmons, but reports in the recent weeks suggest they will go offensive line. Gettleman said he needs to invest in protecting his franchise QB and opening up space for the face of the team in Saquon Barkley. Wills comes from Alabama, where HC Joe Judge coached for many years. The connection is there and Wills is the most pro ready tackle in the draft to most.
Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama
Such an unpredictable pick here with so many conflicting reports, I am going with my gut. Adam Schefter reported the Dolphins were not as ‘all in on Tua’ as many thought, but I believe that is because they wanted Burrow who it doesn’t seem like they will be able to get. Maybe they trade up for an offensive lineman, or take one at five. I think they need to go with the player many thought was the best player in the draft up until his injury. Giving him a season’s rest should ensure his body is ready to go for a new and improved Miami team in 2021.
Chargers - Isaiah Simmons LB Clemson
The Chargers do need a QB, but not desperately. I believe they can play it smart here and wait to grab Herbert in the later half of the first round. Remember, Aaron Rodgers fell because no teams needed a QB, and who else really does after LA? Simmons can make their defense a top 5 one in the league, and the speed Simmons provides can help keep up with the speedy players in the AFC west.
Panthers - Jeff Okudah CB Ohio State
Okudah falls right into the lap of the Panthers at 7. They haven’t had a lock down CB since Josh Norman and Okudah is someone that can provide that stability. He is rated as the best CB in the draft and can help a rebuilding Panthers defense.
Falcons - C.J. Henderson CB Florida (Trade with Arizona)
Rumors have been swirling about the Falcons trading up, and I believe this the highest they can get considering where they sit at 16. Henderson is rated by some as a better corner than Okudah, and they need help after letting Trufant go to the Lions.
Jaguars - Tristan Wirfs OT Iowa
The Jaguars have a lot of holes. They let all of their stars go via trades and now building from the ground up. If I had to make a prediction, they could be picking in the top 5 next season. With that being said, going BPA here makes a lot of sense. Their offensive line has a lot of question marks on the edges, and Wirfs is a very versatile and strong player who can step in at guard or tackle and make a difference.
Broncos - Ceedee Lamb WrR Oklahoma (Trade with Cleveland)
There have been plenty of rumors about the Broncos trading up, either for tackle or WR. In my opinion, trading up in front of NYJ and LVR means they want to grade the WR they want, and that is Lamb. Adding a weapon like CeeDee can bring this offense into one of the best young offenses in 2020.
Jets - Andrew Thomas OT Georgia
The Jets would be thrilled if Thomas fell to them. Originally rated as the best OT, he can step in and make an immediate impact. If he doesn’t fall to them, I could see a trade down. I don’t think Douglas uses his first pick as a GM on a luxury pick like WR. Playing it safe with an OT makes more sense here.
Raiders - Henry Ruggs III WR Alabama
The Raiders have always been infatuated with speed. Ruggs brings that to table in his 4.27 40 time. The Raiders need help at WR where they were hurting big time last season after letting Antonio Brown go. Ruggs has a chance to make a big impact in Las Vegas.
Buccaneers - Mekhi Becton OT Louisville (Trade with San Francisco)
The Bucs trade up one spot to ensure they get their guy. Becton rose up draft boards after his combine performance and his combination of rare size and speed. Some scouts are skeptical of his abilities but his ceiling is the highest of all tackles on the board.
49ers - Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama (Trade with Tampa Bay)
The 49ers look like geniuses after a receiver many considered the best in the draft falls in their lap at 14. A report of knee issues that made have been made to get him to slide is why he falls this far to me, and will be a huge upgrade for Jimmy G’s receiving corp.
Browns - Josh Jones OT Houston (Trade with Denver)
After trading down with Denver, Cleveland gets a proven lineman in Josh Jones who had a great senior bowl. He posted the highest one on one win rate of any lineman. He also earned the highest PFF grade of any draft eligible tackle during the regular season in 2019. This is a great pick for Cleveland.
Cardinals - Javon Kinlaw DT South Carolina (Trade with Atlanta)
If this scenario plays out, it could be the biggest steal of the night. The Cardinals trade down and get a player who many believe is a top ten talent. His combination of size and lower body strength makes him a potential menace in the middle of trenches. Him and Derrick Brown are about the same size, but Kinlaw’s leg’s are much bigger so if you saw him from the waist up you would think he was a linebacker.
Cowboys - A.J. Terrell CB Clemson
Terrell has been in Dallas’ eyes for weeks now according to reports. The secondary must be addressed early by Dallas in the draft, and Terrell makes sense for them here. If not, I could see them going with McKinney from Alabama.
Dolphins - Xavier Mckinney S Alabama
Defensive minded head coach Brian Flores would love an Alabama safety to replace his former Alabama safety, Minkah Fitzpatrick. They do that with the exact pick they acquired for him. Their secondary needs a lot of help, but with the signing of Byron Jones and picking Mckinney, they can rebound in 2020.
Raiders - Kristian Fulton CB LSU
The Raiders need a lot of help in the secondary. They had one of the worst sets of corners in the league in 2019. Fulton can ‘exceed in a lot of different schemes’ and was the number one corner against ‘accurate passes according to PFF, receiving a 74.5 rating. In comparison, none of the corners I have selected above him were in the top 5. With the level of passes being a lot more accurate in the NFL compared to college, I like the sound of that ranking a lot. He also has the highest career grade of any the high rated corners at 91.9 in coverage.
Jaguars - Patrick Queen LB LSU
Queen is seen as the second best LB in the draft by many. The Jags need a lot of help and could go corner or trade this pick, but judging off BPA Queen could be the choice here. He is quick and makes plays. He is the pro-typical linebacker of todays age.
Eagles - Justin Jefferson WR LSU
Jefferson performed astoundedly when it mattered the most, posting 30 catches for 448 and 5 touchdowns in the final three games of his career. He is one of the most underrated prospects in the country and can be the WR 1 in Philly for years to come. They need a lot of help at WR and may trade up, but if not Jefferson should be their guy.
Chargers - Justin Herbert QB Oregon (Trade with Minnesota)
The Chargers trade up and get in front of NE to grab the guy they knew would be there later in the draft. Herbert has some work to do, but he has the intangibles of a franchise QB. Letting him sit under Taylor for a year to learn what it takes to be the guy can help him greatly in the long run. His screen percentage in college scares many, but I believe he can have a successful career with the right franchise backing him.
Patriots - K’Lavon Chaisson EDGE LSU
The Pats would be ecstatic if he falls to them at 23. Seen as the second best edge rusher in the draft, the Pats would love to upgrade their defense that they will surely have to be riding in 2020 to go far. He is still raw, but showed flashes of greatness in 2019 after being injured all of 2018.
Saints - Kenneth Murray LB Oklahoma
Murray is a consensus 2 or 3 ranked linebacker in most prospect lists, and his production at Oklahoma shows he can be someone that can make an impact for New Orleans. Racking up over 100 tackles in 2019 and running a 4.5 40, Murray can stretch the field.
Vikings - Jeff Gladney CB TCU
Gladney was the best corner in the Big 12 this season, holding CeeDee Lamb to two catches in their matchup.Taking a shot on Gladney who was productive in all of his years at TCU including All-Big12 honors as both a junior and senior while breaking up 26 passes, grabbing 3 interceptions, and being credited with six tackles for loss, he could be an answer for the replacement of the CBs they let walk in free agency.
Dolphins - Ceaser Ruiz C Michigan
Rising up boards lately, Ruiz has been linked to Miami. Their Offensive line was very bad last season, and that was partly because they had no one to hand the ball off to. With that being said, they could address RB here, but Ruiz could end up being a great selection.
Seahawks - Yetur Gross-Matos EDGE Penn State
Seattle seems to be trying hard to address this need, signing Jadeveon Clowney (who we are not sure is staying long term) and drafting L.J. Collier in the first round last season. Even after these moves, only one team had fewer sacks than Seattle last season. A Ravens scout called him ‘an athletic marvel,’ standing at 6’5” 265 lbs and accumulating 9.5 sacks last season.
Ravens - DeAndre Swift RB Georgia
Ingram is aging. The Ravens will be one of the best rushing offenses for years to come and can solidify that with the pick of Swift here. He is explosive and was seeing time in a crowded backfield of Sony Michel and Nick Chubb two seasons ago, showing how good he has been for the Bulldogs.
Titans - Austin Jackson OT USC
After letting Jack Conklin walk in free agency, the Titans will need someone to protect their new franchise QB whom they signed to a 4 year deal. Jackson is by many experts evaluation the next best tackle on the board after Jones. He is raw, but his performance this past season earned him a potential first round grade.
Packers - Brandon Aiyuk WR Arizona State
Aiyuk has been flying up the boards lately. Green Bay has been making noise about trading up, so maybe they want a higher rated receiver. If they do not end up doing so, pairing Aiyuk with Adams can help to make the Packers have a stronger offense in 2020.
Colts - Jordan Love QB Utah State (Trade with San Francisco)
Referred to as ‘a poor man’s Mahomes’ by one NFL coach, Love has risen up draft boards due to his very high ceiling. I personally am not sold on him and see him sliding past this pick potentially. However, Rivers is on a one year deal and Brissett only has one more year as well. The best scenario is Love falling to Indy or them potentially trading for a guy like Josh Rosen to develop, because Rivers and Brissett are not the long term answer for a team with value young pieces.
Chiefs - A.J. Epenesa EDGE Iowa
If Epenesa falls this far, I do not see the Chiefs passing up on the opportunity to draft him. As their defensive line continues to improve, adding a player with the production caliber of Epenesa can help get the ball in Pat Mahomes hands that much quicker. Epenesa totaled 22 sacks in his final two seasons and while he isn’t the sexiest prospect (his combine performance has caused him to fall), if you watch his film at Iowa you will see him in the back field as a disruptor more often than not.
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