NRL Round 7 Preview and Betting Tips - Australia Sports

[Stats] A brief analysis of the last five year's odds, or why the bookies always win

Here is something that should surprise no one. Betting odds are designed to fuck you.
I'm not much of a gambler, but as betting odds have crept onto every available space around anything remotely related to football I have started wondering how successful my footy tips would be if I decided to bet on them. Especailly now that every tipping comp website has the odds next to the teams.
Here's an early TL;DR if you bet on the footy you are very likely to lose your money.
I didn't have a way check what my earnings/(loss) would have been without manually going through each game one by one and checking if I had one, so I decided to do a broader analysis of some of the more popular options people take when doing their tips. There is a spreadsheet on this website that has all the winners and odds for the last seven years (although it is missing a bunch of 2009 games which is why I didn't go back that far.)
All bets are for $10. All the games that ended in a draw at full-time were counted as draws, even if a team won in extra time.
Firstly, betting on all the favourites.
The actual results by backing all the favourites would put you in the top half of almost any tipping comp. Some years you are getting 67% of games right. If you got that much right at uni, you'd get a credit. But if you bet on favourites, even with a success rate of 67% you will still lose money.
Those odds are fucked. You can be right two out of three times and still lose money.
Bet on all favourites
Year No. of wins Winning % Winnings Outlay Profit/(Loss) ROI
2015 119 59% 1,771 2,010 (239) (11.90%)
2014 124 62% 1,789 2,010 (222) (11.02%)
2013 135 67% 1,929 2,010 (81) (4.05%)
2012 126 63% 1,878 2,010 (132) (6.57%)
2011 130 65% 1,937 2,010 (73) (3.65%)
2010 120 60% 1,821 2,010 (189) (9.43%)
Total 754 63% 11,123 $12,060 (937) (7.77%)
The next thing I wanted to test is if backing the favourites is so bad, what about the other side of the coin?
The NRL is a notoriously even competition, upsets happen all the time. So surely the outsiders do better? Well yes, they do in some years. And in others much worse. The average loss over 5 years is almost the same as the loss from backing the favourites (7.37% to 7.77%) so over time, the bookies get you either way.
Bet on all outsiders
Year No. of wins Winning % Winnings Outlay Profit/(Loss) ROI
2015 74 37% 2,041 2,010 31 1.55%
2014 73 36% 2,081 2,010 71 3.52%
2013 60 30% 1,785 2,010 (225) (11.17%)
2012 66 33% 1,731 2,010 (279) (13.89%)
2011 61 30% 1,615 2,010 (395) (19.65%)
2010 75 37% 1,918 2,010 (92) (4.60%)
Total 409 34% 11,171 12,060 (889) (7.37%)
Note: The Favourites + Outsiders don't quite add up to the full number of games because of draws
But Ado, I hear you say, I have a system. I only make safe bets and over the year I come out in front.
Well no, you probably don't. The main reason is that if you only take small safe bets, one loss can set you back a long way. Only betting on teams with odds better than 1.20 will mean you need at least five wins to counteract one loss. That means you have to win more than 83% of the time just to break even ([1 loss and 5 wins @1.20 = Break even, 5/6=83.33%) the win rate will need to be much higher if you are taking odds are lower than 1.20.)
If you have an 83% success rate and you are still losing or only breaking even, you should consider applying your talents elsewhere.
Bet on all "safe games" (Favourite 1.20 or less)
Year No. of Win No. of Games Win % Winnings Outlay Profit/(Loss) ROI
2015 17 19 89% 191 190 1 0.32%
2014 13 17 76% 150 170 (20) (11.82%)
2013 24 31 77% 271 310 (40) (12.74%)
2012 12 13 92% 140 130 10 7.69%
2011 9 13 69% 103 130 (27) (21.08%)
2010 6 7 86% 68 70 (2) (3.29%)
81 100 81% 921 1,000 (79) (7.87%)
Bet on all "safe games" (Favourite 1.50 or less)
Year No. of Win No. of Games Win % Winnings Outlay Profit/(Loss) ROI
2015 68 104 65% 895 1,040 (145) (13.90%)
2014 81 119 68% 1,069 1,190 (121) (10.14%)
2013 88 121 73% 1,139 1,210 (71) (5.88%)
2012 68 102 67% 913 1,020 (107) (10.44%)
2011 74 101 73% 1,009 1,010 (1) (0.09%)
2010 59 91 65% 812 910 (98) (10.80%)
438 638 69% 5,838 6,380 (542) (8.50%)
This is an old footy tipping chestnut of people who don't really follow the footy. "Just give me all the home teams" they say. Some tipping comps even give you the "punishment" of the away teams if you fail to get your tips in. Over the last six years, the home team method has barely got 50% of the games right, yet alone how much you would lose if you bet on them.
Bet on all home teams
Year No. of wins Winning % Winnings Outlay Profit/(Loss) ROI
2015 104 52% 1,753 2,010 (257) (12.80%)
2014 114 57% 1,955 2,010 (56) (2.76%)
2013 115 57% 1,940 2,010 (71) (3.51%)
2012 111 55% 1,934 2,010 (76) (3.79%)
2011 117 58% 1,955 2,010 (55) (2.73%)
2010 110 55% 1,868 2,010 (142) (7.05%)
671 56% 11,404 12,060 (656) (5.44%)
One of /NRL's favourite hoodoos is the curse of the team who finished fourth the previous year. So I thought I'd check out if betting against fourth would work out. Spoilers: It didn't, even in 2011 when the Titans fell from fourth to last in a season.
Even if you noticed this trend and bet on it you would have still lost all you money and then some over six years.
Bet against team who finished forth previous year
Year No. of Win No. of Games Win % Winnings Outlay Profit/(Loss) ROI
2015 15 24 63% 264 240 24 10.08%
2014 8 26 31% 172 260 (88) (33.73%)
2013 9 28 32% 197 280 (83) (29.57%)
2012 13 24 54% 203 240 (37) (15.42%)
2011 10 26 38% 216 260 (44) (16.96%)
2010 10 24 42% 228 240 (12) (4.83%)
65 152 43% 1,281 1,520 (239) (15.72%)
If you are wondering how the Titans only manged 6 wins in 2011 but you only would have got 10 right it is because they had a lot of extra time games which they lost.
Note: Manly (2014) and Tigers (2011) were the only teams to make the finals after finishing fourth the year before.
All hope is not lost though. There is one method which I check that did actually yield a decent profit, especially in 2015. This is the ReggieBasil method. Bet against the Tigers when they are favourites. And it fucking works.
A 60% ROI? That sounds like a pyramid scheme, but so do a lot of the Tigers recruitment decisions.
Bet against Tigers when favourites
Year No. of Win No. of Games Win % Winnings Outlay Profit/(Loss) ROI
2015 6 9 67% 145 90 55 60.56%
2014 2 4 50% 43 40 3 7.00%
2013 0 2 0% 0 20 (20) (100%)
2012 7 15 47% 196 150 46 30.53%
2011 8 17 47% 205 170 35 20.76%
2010 6 17 35% 140 170 (30) (17.71%)
29 64 45% 728 640 88 13.80%
Note: In 2013 Tigers were favourites only twice, in rounds two and three against the Eels and Panthers.
TL:DR Head to head betting is for suckers, unless you bet against the Tigers when they are favourites.
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NRL Results for Round 24, 2013 Round Twentyfour Rugby League Football Results NRL Scores and Results; Date Venue Home Score V Score Away; 23/08/13: Penrith Panthers: 28: 12: Brisbane Broncos: 23/08/13: South Sydney Rabbitohs: 28: 20: Canterbury Bulldogs: 24/08/13: St. George Illawarra Dragons: 18: 34: Wests Tigers: 24/08/13: Gold Coast Titans NRL Round 7 Preview and Betting Tips Posted on June 24, 2020 by Ben Jenkins | 0 Comments The following are previews with betting tips for Round 7 of the 2020 NRL season. But perhaps best of all, because you’re betting online, all odds are 100 per cent up to date. That means you bet both before and during the match and be sure you’re getting the very best live odds available for all your NRL bets. You can place a huge array of different bets on rugby league and we look at some of the most popular ones. NRL betting is some of the best sports betting punters can enjoy with odds open on everything from the overall NRL Premiership winner to round-by-round markets. Some of the most anticipated NRL odds are those offered on the Clive Churchill Medal, the award given to the player deemed to be that year’s NRL Grand Final man-of-the-match. 24 august - 27 august 2017 NRL ROUND 25 PREVIEW NRL HOME NRL BETTING HUB BETTING & ODDS NRL HISTORY The penultimate round of the NRL kicks off with an important match between the Broncos and the Eels at Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium on Thursday night.

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