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Preakness 2015: Start Time, TV Channel, Live Stream Info, Latest Betting Odds

Preakness 2015: Start Time, TV Channel, Live Stream Info, Latest Betting Odds submitted by rotoreuters to betternews [link] [comments]

How to Bet and Win the Preakness - Anatomy of the Perfect Bet

Look first of all I'd like to be honest with you, I'm not going to claim I "stumbled" upon some "crazy secret system" that nobody knows. In fact, probably more than a few people know what I'm talking about in this article. The truth is that I've been playing the Preakness among many other horse races, for at least 15 years.
The Preakness is the first throroughbred race I ever attended, back in the 1990's. I had played at harness tracks, having been introduced to that at a young age, but had never been to a throroughbred track until 1996.
That year, my good friend and fellow horseplayer convinced me we should go to Pimlico for a big infield party and some big horse races would break out at some point. I didn't know or care much about anything except the infield party and thought it would be fun. We brought a 12 pack and settled in.
Early in the afternoon on the way up, we tuned in to the Baltimore rock station and were hearing all kinds of live music from some of our favorite bands such as Pearl Jam. We were just about pissed off at the fact that we missed some of these bands live, only to show up and find it was just a DJ playing live cuts, and the few local bands on deck hadn't even started playing yet.
I was young and after the party was over and horse races had broke out, I was wondering why Louis Quatorze had won the Preakness and we hadn't bet on him. After that I began some more analysis and started using some figures from Brisnet to help me analyze the races.
A couple years later I liked Charismatic in the Kentucky Derby, among like 10 other horses, but failed to have the right trifecta boxes since I had little clue what I was doing. I liked him in the Preakness as well, still at good odds since people thought his Derby victory was a fluke, but again failed to have the right trifecta when Badge showed up. But at that point I realized that a pattern was emerging.
Eventually I figured this stuff out, although hard-headed about it and unwilling to part from numerical analysis from numbers that I didn't even know how were calculated. I found out it didn't really take a any magic numbers or even much analysis for a basic wagering strategy.
With few exceptions, the Preakness is one of the easiest races to bet. Take the top (4-5) horses from the Kentucky Derby that run at Pimlico two weeks later, and undoubtedly 2 of them will finish in the top 4, in fact, usually the top two horses from the Derby will finish 1-2 in the Preakness. It's really that simple.
After that you do have to put in some analysis to figure out which "outsiders" will infiltrate the trifecta, or possibly even win the Preakness, along with the Kentucky Derby contingent. There are various tools to use to accomplish this but I normally use one I invented.
Unsatisfied with numbers from various other people and organizations with their secret calculations that I did not understand, I decided to make algorithms to create my own numbers and put them into what I call the Grid.
Last year, the Grid gave me Preakness winner Shackleford at 13-1 as the top Speed and Power horse. It was an obvious key horse for me and automatic win bet at those kind of odds. Plus, he was a top four Derby finisher. Apparently people forgot he finished 4th not 14th in the Derby, which was very respectable for a frontrunner.
Combine him with Derby winner and obvious favorite Animal Kingdom at 2nd, and take Astrology as an improving horse with 4th best Early Pace according to the Grid in 3rd place, and you have a very easy trifecta payout. Add Dialed In, the best Late Pace horse coming off a disappointing but respectable 8th place Derby finish, and you have a very easy superfecta.
This is what I call the anatomy of a perfect Preakness exotic bet. You take any of the top 4 Derby finishers that are running at Pimlico, and key them and 1 and 2, get the "outsider" that didn't run in the Derby at good odds, and add another strong contender, usually from the Derby, such as a good late runner for 4th.
You would be surprised how many times the Preakness plays out this way. Often the same horse will win the Preakness that won the Derby, which has happened less in the last few years but they still often finish in the money. And in fact the top two in the Derby often run 1-2 at the Preakness.
So using the top Derby horses is obvious but where will you find the "outsiders" that will undoubtedly take up a spot or two in the superfecta? Well that is tough to come up with by yourself. Normally you will need more of an advanced handicapping tool for that, which is why I use the Grid. I can tell you that the outsider is almost always at odds from 12-1 to 15-1 so that narrows it down.
The year before last the Grid of course gave me the Preakness winner, but only at 2-1 and not much value there, obviously. But also it gave me 11 of 13 winners that day including some nice long shots that provided good exotic payouts.
Of course, since I wrote this, it could just happen that the top Derby horses will finish 1-4 in the Preakness, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if that happens. Especially since of my top 6 Derby winning contenders, out of 20, 4 of them finished 1-4 in the Derby.
So now you know the basic strategy now for betting the Preakness. You just need to find the right long shot or two to add to your obvious Derby contenders for some nice exotic payouts. If I were you, I'd use the Grid to get them, but that's just because it always comes through for me in these situations.
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My Choices For Woodbine Saturday June 29

EDIT::: IT HAS RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT IN CANADA!!! THEREFORE, I WILL ADJUST SOME OF MY BETS BEFORE BETTING! SEE COMMENTS BELOW FOR UPDATED BETS!

1st Race:Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YO Fillies--- Purse $71,000--- 5 1/2 Furlongs AWT:
3) Muskoka Dancer (8-1) Has made one start and broke a little sluggish, then ran a fairly even race. Now with another 1/2 furlong and a race experience behind her, I expect her to break more alertly and track the early speed, then kick clear when asked. Trainer gave her two more works which signals she is moving forward and adds blinkers for her 2nd effort, all positive signs. Her sire, Danza, used that style of running in his 5 start career, which included a win in the Arkansas Derby and thirds in the Saratoga Special and the Ky Derby(his career finale).
4) Tara Dawn(9-2) is my choice for second. She has made two starts, the first which was to short for her running style, and the second when she sat just behind the early speed and tried to go by them in the stretch but could not run down the front running speed. Now two more good works since her last and she should give a repeat of her last, but with 1/2 furlong more to work with and plenty of front running speed to run at.
5) Rosiejewel Dancer (12-1) is my choice for third. She is a first time starter but the one who will enjoy running late. Not knowing how well she will get away from the gate is all that is preventing me from making her my top choice. Her sire, Girolamo, was a G1 SW and is a full brother to Supercharger(dam of 2010 Ky Derby winner Super Saver) and She's A Winner(dam of 2006 Ky Derby 2nd & Belmont S 2nd, Blue Grass Cat). Her broodmare sire, Afleet Alex, won the 2005 Preakness S & Belmont S after finishing 3rd in the Ky Derby. Nicely spaced works can only help.
8)Take Charge Eh(8-1) is my choice for fourth. She, too, is a first time starter. She scorched her first couple of works, then was given a couple of easier ones to set her up nicely for her first start, which is the pattern I look for to bet in their next out. Since there is plenty of front running speed signed up, she should outlast them all but should have difficulty taking these gate to wire, especially at 5 1/2 furlongs.
Bets: WP 3, Ex Box 3-4, Tri Box 3-4-5, .20 Super Box 3-4-5-8, Super Key 3 with 4-5-8 with 4-5-8 with 4-5-8.
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Race 2: Charlie Barley S--- 3 YO ---- Purse $100,000 --- 1 Mile Turf:
3) The Black Album (3-1) is my choice to win. He is getting a big drop in class to what looks like the easiest spot he has seen thus far in his brief stakes career. Two good works since his last and his first time this year he has done that suggests he is starting to get near top shape. Now his trainer adds blinkers and a big jockey switch to Prat, a solid grass rider.
5) Global Access (1-1) is my choice for 2nd. His last two starts came against one of the favorites for the Queens Plate. He also has two good works following an easy one since his last start and signals he is ready also.
1)Inclusive (4-1) is my choice for third. He dropped down into a condition allowance in his last and beat slightly easier. Now he returns to his previous class and could win with his best effort or if either of my top two choices does not run their best race.
4)Curlin Grey (20-1) is my choice for 4th. He ran close to some pretty good horses in several of his maiden races before dropping into a maiden claiming to break his maiden, but that race knocked him off form because he had to chase the only speed down without any help, making up 11 lengths in 2 furlongs as well as drawing away by almost 5 lengths. While his last is not that good, it was more due to the fact he was asked to stay close to the early pace and came up empty when asked for his best run, a tactic not even close to what he has suggested he wants to do in his previous races.
Bets: No WP, Ex Box 3-5, Tri Box 1-3-5, Super(Back Key) 1-3-5 with 1-3-5 with 1-3-5 with 4.
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Race 3: Zadracarta S --- 3 YO & Up Fillies & Mares --- Purse $100,000 --- 7 Furlongs Turf:
7) Zestina (8-1) is my choice to win. She is making her third start of the year and her first two were even races. But she has worked three times since her last and they have, for the first time this year, indicated she is reaching her peak conditioning. She is also returning to what seems her best surface after 2 AWT spins.
1)Red Cabernet (3-1) is my choice for 2nd. She is dropping out of a G2 stakes into this spot and in fact, 2 of the top 3 in that race returns later today in another G2 stakes. She pressed the early lead before tiring slightly while still giving an honest effort and should be even fitter in this start, as that was only her 2nd start this year. The tactics employed in that start was simply to get her fitter for this start. And it seems to have worked as she has her fastest two works of the year since, both her first works on grass.
5)Alnilah (8-1) is my choice for 3rd. She has made two starts this year also. Her first start she pressed the pace before tiring in the stretch and in her second, she sat behind the early leaders and made a late move, but was beaten by the one sitting just in her of her and a late runner who nailed her at the wire for second. Bullet work since that start indicates she is ready.
8)Desert Isle (6-1) is my choice for 4th. She wired a conditioned allowance field in her last start and steps up to face these. However, her dam, Eye Of The Sphynx, had 3 3/4 siblings to this one, all by A.P. Indy. One won the Queen's Plate, one ran 2nd in the Queen's Plate and the other won a G2 grass race in Canada. Not sure if she is ready to beat these, but definitely the next obstacle to overcome in order to earn black type.
Bets: WP 7, Ex Box 1-7, Tri Box 1-5-7, .20 Super Box 1-5-7-8, Super Key 7 with 1-5-8 with 1-5-8 with 1-5-8.
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Race 4: Allowance --- 3 YO & Up Fillies & Mares --- Purse $67,500 ----- One Mile Turf:
4) Moksgmol (20-1) is my choice to win. I normally chomp at the bit when I think I found a horse that will be overlooked and this is one. She broke her maiden in her first career start and since has been entered at distances that is a little less than what should be her best distance and a surface that probably is not her first choice, either. Now she gets both, her first start on grass and at one mile. Her broodmare sire, Indian Charlie, comes from a long sire line of champion grass milers who were extremely fast and this filly also gets a lot of help from her dam line. Three solid works since her last start, including two on grass and she should be ready to fire.
9) Close Image (8-1) is my choice to finish 2nd. She has made one start this year after a series of works that suggested she would leave her best race in those workouts and that is exactly what she did. The horse has not worked since, but she has already indicated she is fit and just needed a little time instead of more fast works. Now returns in three weeks and that should be perfect.
10) Syllable (15-1) is my choice for third. She made one start this year and after forcing the pace to the first turn, dropped back to last and made another attempt to impact the race in the stretch, but the first two were long gone but she did pick up third fairly easy. Apparently the trainer thought the blinkers made her over aggressive early in her first start under his tutelage and he decides to remove them for this race. This marks her second career start on grass and she has a decent work on grass since that start. Also, my third in their last beaten by more than 2 lengths by both the first & second place finishers angle and she could surprise for the win.
5) Descente (15-1) is my choice for fourth. She is making her fourth start of the year and also her fourth start since her last top effort, angles I use plenty with success. She also showed speed to the top of the stretch in her last, another angle I use. So why isn't she my top choice? Because she has a tendency to stop when pressure is applied. I have always believed that Bodemeister and his foals would do so much better if they were allowed to rate and make their best run in the stretch. And the few trainers that have tried that strategy realizes they seem to perform better that way, also.
Bets: WP 4, Ex Box 4-9, Tri Box 4-9-10, .20 Super Box 4-5-9-10, Super Key 4 with 5-9-10 with 5-9-10 with 5-9-10.
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5th Race: Maiden O/C $40,000 ---- 3 YO & Up Fillies & Mares ---- Purse $40,000 --- 5 Furlongs AWT:
6) Roansmoke (10-1) is my choice to win. She made one start this year on grass and did not do much running. However, in her only dirt start to date, the winner scorched the first quarter and half mile and that gave her no chance in that race, but none of these would have done much chasing that fast of a pace. All she needs is to get the early lead and you will probably see a horse that will wire this field. Works says she is ready and now it is on the jockey to get her going early. Could surprise!
1)Princess Fabiana (3-1) is my choice for second. She made one start this year and made a stretch move but hung late to finish fourth. That race should help her to move forward. One good work since that effort and with a furlong shorter to negotiate, this may be the spot she has been looking for.
3)Cassie's Rainbow (5-1) is my choice for third. Most will think she is making to big a jump in class to consider. But I don't. Actually, the trainer spotted her where he thought she fit best and almost pulled off a 55-1 shocker, missing by 3/4 of a length, when second in her last start. One work since her last and it will do for another good effort.
10)Magique (6-1) is my choice for fourth. She is a first time starter with a series of average works nicely spaced out and looks good enough to contend for the win here. Her sire is the speedy Badge Of Silver.
WP 6, Ex Box 1-6, Tri Box 1-3-6, .20 Super Box 1-3-6-10, Super Key 6 with 1-3-10 with 1-3-10 with 1-3-10.
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Race 6: King Edward S(G2) ----- 3 YO & Up --- Purse $175,000 --- 1 Mile Turf:
2)Synchrony (7-5) is my choice to win. He has made four starts this year and is coming out of several races that were much tougher than this field. Probably the most likely winner on the card but odds will be low.
4) Savage Battle (20-1) is my choice for second. There is only one horse in here that will be able to put early pressure on this one and if he can not stay with him for six furlongs, then this one will wire this field. This will be this horse best distance and surface. I really do not believe he will be caught, but if he is my top choice is the only one that looks like he could.
7)Emmaus(3-1) is my choice for third. He has made two starts in the U.S., both this year and he just missed in both. Now, he is stretching out to a mile and most believe his record suggests he will not like it. However, his pedigree is actually screaming for more distance to around 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 miles, especially his dam line. Only thing I do not like about him is he had two tough races in a row that may have taken a little conditioning away for his best shape. But his work since suggest maybe not.
3) Say The Word (8-1) is my choice for fourth. Yes he beat easier in his last and this is a step up for him. However, two starts back, a horse called Admission Office won that race, and that horse came within a length beating Catholic Boy in his next start and then the G2 Wise Dan S grass race after that. 3rd dam is Dance Smartly, a Canadian Triple Crown winner and dam of back to back Queen's Plate winners in 2000 and 2001. Shot to upset!
WP 4, Ex Box 2-4, Tri Box 2-4-7, .20 Super Box 2-3-4-7, Super Key 2-4 with 2-4 with 3-7 with 3-7.
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Race 7: Maiden Special Weight --- 2 YOs ---- Purse $71,000 --- 5 1/2 Furlongs AWT:
9) Proven Strategies(8-1) is my choice to win. He is making his first career start and there are several in here that are working solidly for their debut. Bur he is the only one among the top contenders that has Mr Prospector showing at all in their pedigree and he has him three times, all in his 4th generation. Good enough for me to let that be the deciding factor.
2) Canadian Secret (8-1) is my choice for third. He has made two starts and after not doing much in his first start at a distance to short for him, he was stretch out a 1/2 furlong in his second start and finished third beaten 4 lengths. Now another 1/2 furlong stretch out and you are in his wheelhouse. Two more excellent works and he will be very close against these. His sire, Secret Circle won the BC Sprint and returned the next year to just miss winning a second one.
4)Zoological (4-1) is my choice for second. The least fancy of the two Biamonte's horses entered, his pedigree suggests he has a ticket to run early and often. His broodmare sire, Hennessy, is grandsire of both Scat Daddy and Beholder, to name a couple. His sire, Animal Kingdom's only dirt win came in the Ky Derby, but he was much better on synthetics including a smashing win in the Dubai World Cup when it was ran on a AWT.
1)Meyer (3-1) is my choice for fourth. He has one start and was left with too much to do in five furlongs, though he was making up ground late. Now, he is stretching out another 1/2 furlong and has a chance to make an impact, though I like my other choices better.
WP 9, Ex Box 2-9, Tri Box 2-4-9, .20 Super Box 1-2-4-9, Super Key 2-9 with 2-9 with 1-4 with 1-4.
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Race 8: Dance Smartly S(G2) --- 3 YO & Up Fillies & Mares --- Purse $175,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile Turf:
2) Art Of Almost (20-1) is my choice to win. She is another that is taking a steep rise in class, but has the bloodlines to upset. Her sire, Dansili, was a miler during his racing career, but sired top distance runs throughout his stallion career, including Flintshire, Dank and The Fugue, all finishing first, second or third in six different BC Turf races. Art Of Almost 2nd dam, Roguer, came to the U.S. and won her first stakes race of her career in 1 1/2 mile test on grass and then in her third start ran 2nd in the G2 Orchid H at 1 1/2 mile on grass.
7)Lift Up (6-1) is my choice for second. She is making her first start of the year but all her wins has came on grass. Her trainer has a pretty good recent record of bringing horse back from a layoff of 6 months or more to win their first start back, but it tells less that 1/2 the story of how many times he has done so successfully.
6)Cartabianca(20-1) is my choice for third. She has two starts this year, both were much shorter than she wants to go to perform her best. She is the only one sign up for this test that is bred for 1 1/2 mile distances, but she should only need 1 1/4 mile to be a major factor. She has ran mostly at the smaller tracks in France, but sports five excellent works since her last start and gets her chance to make believers out of the doubters.
5)Get Explicit (10-1) is my choice for fourth. Her last was her best start this year and she has three more excellent works to indicate she is ready to produce her best race. While I still am undecided, I may move her up into my exacta box, as she was originally my first choice but I moved her to this spot after taking a look at her pedigree which screams miler close up, but then she get a double dose of Northern Dancer's line in her 2nd and 3rd dam. Bet time decision!
WP 2, Ex Box 2-7(possible 5-7 box instead), Tri Box 2-6-7, .20 Super Box 2-5-6-7, Super Key 7 with 2-5-6 with 2-5-6 with 2-5-6(I know, not exactly like listed but putting the one most likely to win on top).
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9th Race: Highlander S(G1) --- 3 Yo & Up --- Purse $300,000 --- 6 Furlongs Turf:
6) Tricks To Doo(12-1) is my choice to win. He has cycle back into his best form and will be tough to beat in this spot. Four solid works since his last suggests he is ready to tackle the beasts in here. Even his dam had a distaste for dirt but showed up with her A game when placed on all weather tracks or grass. Ditto for Into Mischief, though he pass some dirt ability on to some of his foals.
2)Caribou Club (7-5) is my choice for 2nd. Anybody who has read my posts knows I like my City Zip's foals in sprints, whether on dirt, grass or synthetics. However, he made the long haul to Dubai and ran poorly. While that race is a toss, the travel is not. And he has not worked nearly as well since he returned as he was before he left, though his last was more like the old him.
8) White Flag(7-2) is my choice for third. He is entering this race off a more than five month layoff, but his trainer often brings them back ready to run, so that is not a major concern. I normally like War Front in mile grass races but since this one's broodmare sire is Gone West and the dam line produced Mr Prospector, he may not really care to go that far. This distance is a better fit for him.
1)Extravagrant Kid (6-1) is my choice for 4th. He won his last start which was a tough field for a non graded stakes race and he has one easy work since. Actually his only loss this year was against Pink Lloyd, Canadian's best older sprinter. Should hang around for a minor piece.
WP 6, Ex Box 2-6, Tri Box 2-6-8, .20 Super Box 1-2-6-8. Super Key 6 with 1-2-8 with 1-2-8 with 1-2-8.
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Race 10: Queen's Plate S --- 3 YOs Restricted To Canadian Bred--- Purse $1,000,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile AWT:
10) Sky Wire (4-1) is my choice to win. His last looks like more of a prep to get to the prize his connections really wants. His works picked up immediately after that start and he produced three solid works. Now he is ready for the big act.
4) Pay For Peace (15-1) is my choice for second. He won the Plate Trial in his last for his second win in eight starts. However, his broodmare sire, Sligo Bay is a son of Sadler's Wells and they usually do not like anything under 1 1/4 mile against the better competition. Nice odds for looks like a live horse.
14) Avie's Flatter (5-2) is my choice for third. I not sure if this is a distance he wants to go but he is the class of the field. Do not like betting horses going this far showing that much speed in workouts as most turns out to be sucker bets. But then again, it is restricted to Canadian breds, so talent is half the normal he would be expected to run against in this type of race.
6)Lucas N' Lori (50-1) is my choice for fourth. He has made 2 starts this year and encountered trouble in both. But I like the fact that his last was his first start with lasix off one slow work. His grandsire, Maria's Mon is sire of 2 Ky Derby winners(Monarchos and Super Saver) and his broodmare sire, Tejano Run, ran 2nd in the 1995 Ky Derby. So distance will not be a problem with this one and he has shown a little talent in his races.
Bets: WP 10, Ex Box 4-10, Tri Box 4-10-14, .20 Super Box 4-6-10-14, Super Key 10 with 4-6-14 with 4-6-14, with 4-6-14.
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Race 11: Maiden Special Weight --- 3 & Up Fillies & Mares --- Purse $65,000 ----- 6 1/2 Furlongs Turf:
11) Baby Driver (8-1) is my choice to win. She has made 2 starts, the first was an even effort followed by a test against winners in an O/C race where she flashed speed and stopped against a field that was tougher than she was ready to test. She has another average work since that start and adds blinkers for this start. Just the relief in class should make her a contender against these.
13) Ekati Peace (8-1) is my choice for second. She has made three starts. After 2 failed attempts at pressuring the pace, she was backed off a little behind the early pace, made a move to the lead entering the stretch but got ran down by the winner to finish 2nd. Four more above average works since that effort should set her up nicely for this test. A return to grass makes her a win candidate in here.
3) Ready And Perfect (3-1) is my choice for third. She also has made two starts, the first when she set the early pace and flatten out in the stretch to finish third on the AWT. Then entered on grass, she sat behind the early pace and closed with a rush to just missed when second at 6 furlongs. Now stretched out another 1/2 furlongs and a good work since, she will be tough to deny a winning effort.
12) Strike It Rich (4-1) is my choice for fourth. She has made 5 starts, finishing second three times and third once. However, in her last, she sat just behind my third choice, let that one get a good jump on her as her jockey seemed indecisive about which route to take, but made up some ground late. Three works since that signals she was retain her condition and a jockey switch could be all she needs to get on top.
Bets: WP 11, Ex Box 11-13, Tri Box 3-11-13, .20 Super Box 3-11-12-13, Super Key 11 with 3-12-13 with 3-12-13 with 3-12-13.
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Race 12: Allowance --- 3 YO & Up ---- Purse $67,500 --- One Mile Turf:
3)Western Crusader(12-1) is my choice to win. He has made five starts in his career with his only two grass starts coming in the U.S. against better maiden fields that what he is facing in here. With two good works since his last, a decent effort, he should set the pace and may not look back.
2) Silent Jimmie (15-1) is my choice for second. His last was his only effort showing on grass, but he has 2 wins and 1 second, all at one mile on grass but is 0-21 on other surfaces and distances, most of his board finishes against maidens. He returns in 15 days with no works, but at the distance and surface he seems to prefer more than others. His last was just a little long for him, but should set him up nicely for this start.
7) Pipers Warrior (20-1) is my choice for third. He switches barns to make his first start of the year. He also makes the first start of his career on grass. He has seven works since returning to the work tab but his last two indicates he is rounding into shape. In a fairly weak field, that should be enough to get him a shot at the top spot.
11) Coleyville(20-1) is my choice for fourth. Two of his three lifetime wins has came on grass and his third came on the AWT in a race that was moved from the grass. He is making his third start this year and the fifth in his form cycle, but while a mile seems a little shorter than his best distance, he should come running late and begin the upcycle in his form. No works since his last is biggest reason I can not put him higher in here.
WP 3, Ex Box 2-3, Tri Box 2-3-7, .20 Super Box 2-3-7-11, Super Key 3 with 2-7-11 with 2-7-11 with 2-7-11.
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Race 13: O/C 62,500 ---- 3 YO & Up Fillies And Mares ----- Purse $72,500 --- 6 1/2 Furlongs Turf:

3)Sanity (7-2) is my choice to win. While she does not fit my 3rd beaten by more than two lengths by the first and second place finishers to a T, it is close enough for me to make her my top choice. As with all my angles, I leave a little flexibility and make final decisions on a case by case basis. With this angle, I am simply trying to determine if the jockey used the whip excessively or if he was pushing too hard on the horse's neck. Horses needs some encouragement to move forward, but there is also a fine line that can have the opposite effect.

12) Killag Katie (8-1) is my choice for second. In her first start this year, she finished a length behind my top choice while making up ground late. Definitely in need of that start, she has one good work since followed by a maintenance breeze. She looks like a hard trying sort that comes up short in most of her races and that is why she will be my second choice, instead of my top choice.

10) Magic Spell (6-1) is my choice for third. She has two starts this year, the first an out she was clearly in need of and then a second in this class in her last, finishing in front of both my top two choices. She has third works since that effort and all indicates she is nearing top shape. However, I really do not believe she is quite there yet. For this reason and the fact she finishes third in most of her on the board finishes, this is why she will be placed there by me.

4) San Nicola Storm(20-1) is my choice for fourth. She has made one start this year against much tougher and was in need of that start. She has four good works since that effort and with the class break and surface switch, she is in here with a chance to win at a huge price.

WP 3, Ex Box 3-12, Tri Box 3-10-12, .20 Super Box 3-4-10-12, Super Key 3 with 4-10-12 with 4-10-12 with 4-10-12.
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My Picks For Churchill Downs, Saturday June 15

There are 5 graded stakes card and the undercard looks competitive, also, at Churchill Downs. There is also a G1 race for Arabians only but I will not even attempt to pick that race, much less wager on it. The first race is for grass maiden special weights and the last(11th), which is a maiden claiming race, looks mostly likely for an upset. The rest mostly looks like runners that will be highly regarded. Also, I may have a couple of races at Woodbine Saturday and Sunday that I will post if I decide to bet them, including one that will pay handsomely if the horses runs to their bloodlines(their works suggest it is possible, too if you are wondering).

Saturday--- CD 1st Race: Maiden Special Weight---- 3 YO & Up--- Purse $95,000--- 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf:

My choice to win will be 6)Tohui(20-1). He will be making his first start and has three nice works but none in 4 weeks. However his works were at a training center close by, so they may have been working him but may not have release or recorded any recent activity, which they are not required to with the exception of one recognized work within 2 months of an actual race. His sire is Distorted Humor, who foals I bet often on grass or off tracks. His Dam, Rosee Is Cozee, won 5 races in her career, 3 on TP AWT and 2 grass races and her only stakes placing was a 3rd in the Ky Downs Ladies Turf S. 20 her 22 starts came on AWT tracks and on grass, with 13 being on the board finishes. The other 2 were off the turf races and she did not run a lick in either. Tohui, trainer and part owner, Jurado, also the same with her. One other note, Tohui was sent through 2 sales as a yearling with a $95K reserved and was brought home bought times. However, trainer then went out and found someone interested in a partnership and decided to race him, instead of selling him for less than he thought he was worth. While this does not guarantee a winner(nothing does), it is impressive enough that he thought well enough of the horse to keep him and therefore, worth taking a chance on.

8) A.K. Safari(8-1) is my choice for second. He has started 5 times in his career with 4 starts on grass, including a second, while running against decent horses. His only dirt try was a dull effort against War Of Will. He has had one start this year, an even 5th at GP in February, but is working solidly for this engagement, including 2 bullet works since arriving at CD. Would be no surprise for the win, especially if top choice falters.

4) Life Mission(5-1) is my choice for the third slot. He has started 8 times with 3 seconds and 2 thirds. However, his 2 thirds came in Europe and his 3 seconds all came in listed stakes here in the U.S. All three of his unplacings came against maiden special weights. His sire is Noble Mission, a multiple G1 SW and full brother to Frankel & Bullet Train. His broodmare sire, Johannesburg, was an unbeaten 2 YO champion in Europe & the U.S. but is better known as sire of Scat Daddy. Will not be a maiden for too much longer. Won't overlook.

2)Road To Peace(15-1) is my choice for the fourth spot. He is also a first time starter who has some good works, but, to my surprise, his trainer has a horrible recent record with first time starters, lasix and turf starters. However, he is above average as a trainer over all, including training such notables as Oscar Performance, Heart To Heart, and Grand Arch, among many others. His sire, multiple G1 winner Quality Road and his dam, multiple G1 winner Diplomat Lady, all on dirt but both comes from top siring families of grass runners. In with a good shot to upset.

My Bets: WP 6, Ex Box 6-8, Tri Box 4-6-8, .10 Super Box 2-4-6-8, Super Key 6 with 2-4-8 with 2-4-8 with 2-4-8.

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Race 2: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YO & Up Fillies--- Purse $95,000--- 1 Mile:

4) Doll Collection(4-1) is my choice to win. She has started twice with a 3rd place finish as her best effort. But she was checked in the turn on a muddy track and then made up almost 4 lengths in the stretch and the combination of the two probably drained her of energy. While she worked twice in good time before her next effort, that effort suggested that she was indeed low on energy, resulting in a flat performance. Now she has two more works since, also good, but has the pattern I am looking for with the best one first with just an easy breeze to be sure she is fit following, the first time in her career her trainer has followed this pattern. Her sire is Tapit and her dam multiple G1 winner Groupie Doll won back to back runnings of both the Presque Isles Masters S and G1 BC F&M Sprint. But she also ran twice against the boys in the G1 Cigar Mile H, finishing 2nd and then 4th, both immediately after her BC victories. Doll Collection adds blinkers for this test.

6) Champagne Tale(5-1) is my choice for the 2nd spot. She has started six times with a second and a third her only two board finishes. She looked poised to break her maiden late last year but then shipped to OP where she ran 3 even races without hitting the board. I believe she simply did not like the track as it favored speed heavier than I have seen in years. She has 5 works since her last race, 3 very good ones followed by two easier ones to be sure she has retained her conditioning.

3) Web O' Gold(9-2) is my choice for the third spot. She has started 8 times with 5 seconds and a third. All the seconds were last year in six starts. This year she has started twice and finished third one, her last effort and the last 5 efforts was at 1 1/16 miles, which is probably just a tab further than her best distance. While her sire, Hard Spun, had no problem going 1 1/4 miles, so far his foals wants no more than 1 1/8 miles. However, more important, her broodmare sire, Gone West, is notorious for siring sprinters that have trouble carrying their speed even a mile, much less any longer. Bullet work noted since her last, also. After a failed try of adding blinkers, they are being removed for this start. While I think she has a shot at winning, I like my top two better.

10) Templuna(20-1) is my choice for 4th. While there are several who could easily been put in this spot, I like her the best. She has two starts, with her last being an improvement over her first start, though the winner out of that race came back and won a G1 in her second lifetime start with authority. And though the trainer is not well known in Ky, he will win one at the bigger Illinois tracks when you overlook one of his trainees. She has two good works since her last start, indicating she is ready to run her best race yet.

My Bets: WP 4, Ex Box 4-6, Tri Box 3-4-6, .10 Super Box 3-4-6-10, Super Key 4 with 3-6-10 with 3-6-10 with 3-6-10.

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Race 3: Allowance O/C $80,000---- 3 YO & Up----- Purse $101,000---- 6 1/2 Furlongs:

2) Loose On The Town(4-1) is my choice to win. He has started once this year and only 4 times combined in 2018-19. His only effort this year is even better than it looks on paper as he bobbled at the start, which could not help, but he kept trying throughout the race, though he flatten out in deep stretch, an indication he need the start. However, trainer was apparently pleased with that effort because he gave him 3 maintenance breezes instead of trying to put more speed in him since that effort to maintain his fitness, not to get him fitter, which more often than not backfires on those who believes horses need faster works. A horse can only get so fit, no need to make him leave his best race in a workout, which happens so often.

3) Pete's Play Call(9-2) is my choice for the 2nd spot. He is making his first start of the year but his trainer is actually notorious for being horses back off long layoffs, despite what his recent stat suggest. While this horse is taking a step up in class, his only other choice was either conditioned allowances or to enter in a claiming race for a tag, something he may not have wanted to risk. This is the next condition of the optional claiming levels, also. And like my top choice, this trainer got this horse fit and now has been giving him maintenance breezes while he waits for the right spot to enter. He has worked a total of fifteen times since his last race, so trainer knows he is ready to give his best effort.

7) He Hate Me(15-1) is my choice for the third spot. While he ran third in his last after a winning effort, a signal I now use to help me determine if and when a horse has peaked, he does not fit that angle based off his last race. First, that race was ran in the mud with a finishing time of 109 2/5. Next, he went 6 wide in the turn and lost even more valuable ground. But there are not many who will run down the front running speed that got that big of ahead start on a fast track, much less an off track, without them literally slowing to a crawl, which they didn't. He has started 8 times in his career, so he still has room for improvement with a little more experience. He has five works since his last start, but it is backwards of what I prefer as the works have gotten faster as the race approaches and for this reason, I will put him third, though he could win if top two are not at their best.

6) Mr Crow(4-1) is my choice for fourth. He has ran in the toughest class of all these and would be no surprise for the win. However, he has not indicated, to me at least, that he is in top form, though he is not far off. He has started twice this year and finished third in an effort he definitely needed, then a close fourth in a stakes race that saw him pick up one horse throughout the race in a six horse field and a couple who beat him would be outsiders in here.

My Bets: WP 2, Ex Box 2-3, Tri Box 2-3-7, ,10 Super Box 2-3-6-7, Super Key 2 with 3-6-7 with 3-6-7 with 3-6-7.
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4th Race: Allowance---- 3 YO & Up F&M---- Purse $97,000--- One And 1/8 Mile Turf:

2) Dalika (4-1) is my choice to win. She started one this year and that was her first start in the U.S. also. She broke slowly and grinded her way closer to the front runners as she fought restraint at one mile on grass. That was a good effort and she has back class. She broke her maiden in a handicap and then ran 2nd in the listed Prix Herod S, both against colts. But she is also the only 3 YO entered in this race, so she will get a small weight break on the weight for age scale. Her sire, Pastorius, is a G1 winning son of Soldier Hollow(a grandson of Sadler's Wells) and her broodmare sire, Hurricane Run, is a G1 winning son of Montjeu(son of Sadler's Wells) and out of a daughter of Surumu, Germany's best distance sire line dating back to the mid 1800's. Bloodlines is there, class is there, and jockey needs to just hold on and enjoy the ride!

7) Bridaled Temper(7-2) is my choice for second. As I was looking at this race, I wanted to put her on top, but since she has 5 second place finishes in her 10 lifetime starts, this is probably the best spot for her. She has started once this year and that was an even effort. However, she seems to be begging for a little more distance as her broodmare sire, Sadler's Wells, has spent his career breeding foals that is only starting to warm up at 1 1/4 mile, especially on grass. But she has to beat a Sadler's Wells inbred in here that will probably get first jump on her and that is probably too much to overcome.

1) Joy Of Treasure (8-1) is my choice for third. He has started three times this year and after breaking his maiden claiming, has tried starter allowance and then condition allowance(the class of this field) at 1 1/2 mile, while finishing mid pack in both. Both starts were good from the experience standpoint and he should be ready to fire his best shot since this will mark his third race after a winning effort. His sire, Kitten's Joy, is yet another grandson of Sadler's Wells and his broodmare sire, Catienus, is a son of Storm Cat. With the cut back in distance, he should be flying late to get a piece.

3) Napier (3-1) is my choice for fourth. She has 2 lifetime starts, the first when she broke her maiden and then her last, when she set the pace in the same conditions as this race, but tired late to finish fourth in her first start against winners. However, she is stretching out another 1/16 mile and there is plenty of other front running speed sign on. Both her sire and broodmare sire are suspect at this distance, but her dam family shows both Nureyev, a 3/4 brother to Sadler's Wells and Nijinsky II, the current last winner of England's TC for 3 YOs in 1970.

My Bets: WP 2, Ex Box 2-7, Tri Box 1-2-7, .10 Super Box 1-2-3-7, Super Key 2 with 1-3-7 with 1-3-7 with 1-3-7.

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Race 5: Matt Winn S(G3)---- 3 YOs---- Purse $150,000---- 1 And 1/16 Mile:

3) Nolo Contesto (3-1) is my choice to win. He broke his maiden three starts back, beating Omaha Beach in that test, who has not lost since. Then he gets beat twice by Roadster, the last being at a distance that his bloodlines suggests is a little to long for him. His trainer gave him a series of six works since his last start, all to maintain fitness until the last, when he was asked to work a little faster. Since that work has not blazing fast and was his last before this start and heading east, he probably needed to give a little extra effort. But it should have him nicely set up for a solid effort.

4) Knicks Go(5-1) is my choice for the second spot. He is a need the lead type to perform his best and he should be able to accomplish that against these. He has three starts this year which shows he was knocked off form with a huge effort in the BC Juvenile when 2nd. But his last shows he is returning to his best form. He has two works since his last and while not quite the way I would prefer, I still believe it is enough to run big in a rather weak G3 field.

2)Signalman (4-1) is my choice for third. I bet this horse in the Preakness and he did not pick up his feet. As I do with all horses I bet and with longshots that wins, I went back to try to figure out what happen. And then, it hit me. Next time, check the BLOODLINES. He was working solidly for that effort and looked live but his bloodlines was screaming "Not A CHANCE". Others give me grief that I am such a believer in bloodlines. But Signalman's sire, General Quarters, won the G1 Blue Grass S on the all weather surface but his longest win on dirt came in the G3 Sam F Davis S at Tampa Bay. And Signalman's broodmare sire, Trippi, was even worse. His longest win came in the G3 Flamingo S at 1 1/8 mile, but that was because he was the only speed on GP speed favoring track. Even though he won 7 of 14 lifetime starts, no other win was further than 7 furlongs. Actually he got crushed every other time he tried, Now Signalman is shortening back up to 1 1/16 mile which his bloodlines suggests is his longer limit, he is working good still and he catches a fairly weak field.

5) Mr Money (2-1) is my choice for 4th. He is another who I bet in his last race and he came through. However that was at a mile and since that start, his trainer has sped up his works, signaling to me he wants him closer to the lead. And I feel that is a mistake, given his bloodline. His sire, Goldencents, was a champion miler and very speedy. But he, too, won over a mile but only at SA and in that race, the Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 mile, he sat behind a horse his trainer knew would tire and was able to hold off a Tapit son. While Tiznow is his broodmare sire, the sire of the 2nd dam is Distorted Humor, another who could not get a mile, much less 1 1/16 mile. If he rates like he has done so far, then you made consider him higher up. But if he doesn't, I hoping he can last for fourth.

My Bets: No WP, Ex Box 3-4, Tri Box 2-3-4, No .10 Super Box, Super Key 3 with 2-4-5 with 2-4-5 with 2-4-5.

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Race 6: Wise Dan S(G2)--- 3 YO & Up---- Purse $250,000---- 1 1/16 Mile Turf:

10) El Picaro (12-1) is my choice to win. He is making his first start this year and his first in this country. He has won 5 of 7 starts in his native country of Argentina, including the biggest G1 they have to offer. Since the likes of Candy Ride, Paseana and Bayakoa, I have seen little to get behind coming from that country. However since his sire, Lookin At Lucky; and his broodmare sire is Scat Daddy, both G1 winners on dirt in the U.S but both bred equally as good for grass, I now believe others will get to see what a good Argentina horse really looks like while they are racing. His trainer's grass stats looks poor, but his only graded stakes wins on grass has came with his male trainees, while his only graded stakes wins on dirt have came with females. 11 works spread out evenly over the last 2 1/2 months at Keeneland and he should be ready to fire.

1)Get Western (50-1) is my choice for the 2nd spot. He has two starts this year, The first was a race he needed and the second he easily won his first level condition allowance. He makes a huge leap up in class, but he also sports the trainer of Wise Dan, a multiple G1 SW on grass and two time U.S. Champion Grass Horse. LoPresti has been looking for another since Wise Dan retired and I believe he has found one. Get Western's sire, Get Stormy, was also late to mature as a 3 YO, winning his first stakes and then 2 G3 late in his 3 YO season. He came back as a 4 YO and won 2 G2s. He added 2 G1 as a 5 YO. And then he capped off his career with another G1 score as a 6 YO. In all, he won 11 of 31 starts and earned over $1.6M, all between 1 mile and 1 1/8 mile on grass. Get Western broodmare sire, Marquetry, was a high speed dirt horse that won 10 of 36 lifetime starts and earned $2.8M with his biggest G1 wins coming in the Hollywood Gold Cup at 1 1/4 mile on dirt and the Eddie Read H at 1 1/8 mile on grass. Get Western also has Northern Dancer listed twice on each side of his pedigree in the 5th generation. Do not know if he is ready to pull it off, but works and breeding suggest he is. Will not leave him out.

12) Admission Office (5-1) is my choice to finish in the 3rd spot. He has two starts this year also, the first a win in a second level condition and then a fast closing second to Catholic Boy in his first graded stakes try. He has two works since that effort and both looks like breezes to keep him fit. However, his sire, Point Of Entry, was a multiple G1 winner on grass and Admission Office is a member of his second crop to race. A member of his first crop was Analyze It. Admission Office broodmare sire, Royal Academy, was a 1/2 brother to the dam of Storm Cat and a leading sire in both Europe and Australia for a number of years, along with putting out many good runners that was brought to the U.S.

4) Hot Springs (10-1) is my choice for fourth. He, too, has made two starts this year. He was in need of his first start but it was also against Bricks And Mortar, a horse that has moved to the top of the grass horses division. His second look like the jockey tried to keep him too close to the pace and he failed to respond with his usual late kick. Now Asmussen switches back to his main jockey, gave this horse a series of 4 maintenance breezes since his last and he should return with his late kick in here.

My Bet: WP 10, Ex Box 1-10, Tri Box 1-10-12, .10 Super Box 1-4-10-12, Super Key 10 with 1-4-10 with 1-4-10 with 1-4-10. And what is extremely rare for me, I will also bet a smaller WP on the 1, and a tri box with the 1-4-10.

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Had the rest of my post typed in but then it disappeared again and it will not let me pull it back up. Won't have time to re type but I will give out my choices: I will put a few notes after each race, mostly about the odds horses I have chosen to give you a better idea why:

7th Race: 3) Elate(8-5), 6) Auspicious Babe(15-1), 5) Blue Prize(2-1). Betting only Tri Box 3-5-6 and Tri Key 3 with 5-6 with 5-6.

6) Auspicious Babe looks like she is returning to form after clearly being off her best form all year.

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8th Race: 12) Yoshida(7-2), 8) King Zachary(12-1), 4) Seeking The Soul(4-1), 3) Runaway Ghost(20-1). Bets: WP 12, Ex Box 8-12, Tri Box 4-8-12, .10 Super Box 3-4-8-12, Super Key 12 with 3-4-8 with 3-4-8 with 3-4-8.

King Zachary made his first start on derby day and could not compete on a track that was still drying out in a blazing pace and finish time behind the winner who got a big jump on him and the runner up who set the swift pace. With plenty of front running speed signed up for this race, he has a chance to make his presence felt under a new trainer. RUNAWAY GHOST has never beaten this kind, but he gets a chance to sit behind a few this go, instead of being the chase to ensure a solid pace. Has proven he does his best running when allowed to settle and then make a serious move.

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9th Race: 1) Winter Sunset(7-2), 2) Delta's Kingdom(8-1), 5)Hard Legacy(8-1), 11) Princess Carolina (4-1). Bets: WP 1, Ex Box 1-2, Tri Box 1-2-8, .10 Super Box 1-2-5-11, Super Key 1 with 2-5-11 with 2-5-11 with 2-5-11.

Delta's Kingdom's broodmare sire A.P. Delta is an unraced son of A.P. Indy and dam is Lyphard's Delta, making him a full brother to G1 winner Indy Five Hundred and Delta Princess, dam of 2 time F&M champion Royal Delta, G1 winners Delta Prince, Crown Princess, G1 Placed Carnival Court, G2 Placed Empire Way(whose first foals are now 4) and winner Khozan(whose first foals are now 2 and has one entered tomorrow that should be live at Woodbine).

Princess Carolina's dam is Pure Clan , a multiple G1 winner of 8 races in 16 starts and $1.9M in earnings. Pure Clan is also inbred to Secretariat through his daughter Terlingua and son General Assembly who found it impossible to beat Spectacular Bid in six attempts, though he was clearly the 2nd best 3 YO of 1979.

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10th Race: Arabians Stakes, so I will pass as race is wide open.

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11th Race: 11) Cadron Flat (9-2), 2) Dixie Zapper (15-1), 5) Shorely (5-1), 9) Game Day Decision (4-1). Bets: WP 11, Ex Box 2-11, Tri Box 2-5-11, .10 Super Box 2-5-9-11, Super Key 11 with 2-5-9 with 2-5-9 with 2-5-9.

2) Dixie Zapper's trainer, Randy Morse, is a 15% lifetime winning trainer who got off to the worst start of his long career if nearly 40 years, but his horses normally comes alive at CD. Has trained the winners of approaching 1000 in his career(11 shy of that mark).

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Good Luck to all! Have fun!
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My Bets For Belmont Day 2019

I will pass on the first race. Simply don't see anything I like.

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2nd Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YO & Up--- Purse $90,000--- 1 1/4 Mile Inner Turf:
In this race, you should give it your best shot, as I have no clue who will win. Most of these trainers are better known as steeplechase trainers and a lot of hurdles horses turns to steeplechase after disappointing as thoroughbreds.

9)Uncle Artie(9-2) looks like the most likely win candidate against these. He has limited opportunities on grass but each one is a slight improvement over his previous. And he sports the best flats trainer in the race.
7)Azzedine(20-1) form looks terrible but he has a trainer that has won a G1 on the grass at 1 1/4 mile at Belmont(Manhattan H) in his 1st start after an 11 month break, beating Multiple G1 winner and turf champion Gio Ponti at 24-1. His last start before that break, he came within a neck of beating Gio Ponti at 53-1 in the G1 Man Of War at 1 3/8 miles. Shows how up for grabs this race is when you have to resort to a 8% lifetime winning trainer to find any type of play.
4)No Mans Land(2-1) is one who has a steeplechase trainer, but he seems to struggle on the flats. However, the horse pedigree suggests he will be around at the end.
6)Tolaga Bay(15-1) was my original choice but red flags went up when I saw his jockey wins at a mighty 5% and his trainer has a pretty impressive hurdles record but very little on his flats training.
I will probably end up passing this race and concentrate on races I like better.
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Race 3: Easy Goer S----- 3 YOs---- Purse $150,000--- 1 1/16 Miles:

6)Always Mining(6-5) is the controlling speed in this race. I will toss his last as none in here has shown any ability to beat G1 types yet.

2) Dream Maker(6-1) is my choice to finish 2nd. He looks like he is returning to form after being off form and/or over matched in most of his races.

4)Outshine(9-5) is my choice for 3rd. He returns to what should be his best distance. However, he beat very little in his two wins and possibly the only decent horse he has finished in front off is Win Win Win, who now looks like he was knock off form when setting the track record at TB in his first start of the year(ran 3 fairly poor races since that effort with his 3rd behind this one being his best effort).

3)Grumps Little Tots(12-1) is my choice for 4th. Toss his last as he was eliminated at the start and he looks most eligible to jump up and improve. Irad Ortiz decided to take the mount.

Ex Box 2-6, Tri Box 2-4-6, .10 Super Box 2-3-4-6, Super Key 6 with 2-3-4 with 2-3-4 with 2-3-4.

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Race 4: Just A Game(G1)--- 4 YO & Up Fillies & Mares--- 1 Mile Turf:

7) Got Stormy(6-1) is my choice to win. I have to bet her back because she ran a superb race at 12-1 in her last but got caught late by Beau Recall(10-1), costing me at least a $35K P5 and 3K P4 on Ky Derby Day(last leg of both a P5 & P4 and I had $12 & $8 invested in each with her keyed). Oh well, it happens. She has ran twice against the heavy favorite, finishing 1 and 1 1/2 lengths behind while the favorite enjoyed the better post positions both times for the grass course they were racing on. It should be equal today.

1)Daddy Is A Legend(6-1) is my choice for second. She has raced 4 times against the favorite, all while carry equal weight with her but enjoys an 8 lb swing Saturday. Her best chance to get by the favorite will be late in the running.

4)Rushing Falls(4-5) has done nothing wrong and rightfully deserves to be odds on in here. However, I have seen enough races that I know the best times to beat a heavy favorite is when others think they can not be beat(better known as over confidence). And she could possibly provide those who are looking with a bridge jumping opportunity(it occurs most often in NY, though I haven't seen one there lately).

5)Carla Temptress(20-1) will be my choice to finish 4th. She probably needed her first start in almost 6 months in her last. She was primed for an upset of the favorite at Saratoga last year, but caught a yielding turf course, making it impossible for anyone to run her down, though she tried valiantly.

Bets: WP 7, Ex Box 1-7, Tri Box 1-4-7, .10 Super Box 1-4-5-7, Super Key 7 with 1-4-5 with 1-4-5 with 1-4-5.

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Race 5: Ogden Phipps(G1)-- 4 YO & Up Fillies & Mares--- Purse $700,000-- 1 1/16 Mile:

1)Come Dancing(6-5) is my choice, though I will pass the race. Her works and the improvement she has shown in her last few starts, at least to me, makes her to one to run down late.

2)Midnight Bisou(1-1) should make a valiant effort but the top choice will have to be ran down, as she will not come back to the field.

6) Mopotism(15-1) has a chance to finish second but more likely third is more reasonable place to put her.

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Race 6: Jaipur Invitational(G1)--- 4 YO & Up--- Purse $400,000--- 6 Furlongs Turf:

5) Diamond Oops(30-1) will be my choice to spring the upset. He is coming out of a race where the winner is faster early on grass than the heavy favorite in here has ever ran, the perfect prep. I also thinks his bloodlines fits this distance and surface. Best of all, Mike Smith has accepted the mount, something he no longer does unless he or his agent thinks the horse is live.

2) Om(8-1) will be my choice to finish second. Om ran 2nd in the 2016 BC Turf Sprint, beaten a nose, while coming from last and having to weave his way through traffic to Obviously, making the last start of his career. He made his first start of the year in his last and after prompting the pace, flatten out late. That race should make him fit and ready to run big in here.

8)World Of Trouble(1-1) looks to be the only real speed again. But with the exception of the BC Turf Sprint where he caught a yielding course that flatters his running style, his trainer has picked easy fields for him to beat up on. This is by far the toughest field he will have faced on a firm turf. Ripe for an upset!

9) Wild Shot(30-1) will be my choice to finish fourth. I have been wondering if he would get the opportunity to show what he can do on the grass. After all, Ranter is a 1/2 sister to Pulpit and technically a full sister to Tale Of The Cat(same sire and full sisters as dams), whose foals are much better on grass than dirt. His form looks poor because he was tried on dirt against good horses for so long, but his only win against winners came in the Pat Day Mile on a wet fast(yeah right?) track, usually a good indication a horse will like the grass. Workout on grass noted.

Bets: WP 5, Ex Box 2-5, Tri Box 2-5-8, .10 Super Box 2-5-8-9, Super Key 5 with 2-8-9 with 2-8-9 with 2-8-9, Super Key 2 with 5-8-9 with 5-8-9 with 5-8-9.
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Race 7: Acorn Stakes(G1) ---- 3 YO Fillies --- Purse $700,000--- 1 Mile:

7) Guarana(2-1) is my choice to win. Yes, she has only one race where she demolished a maiden field in good time. But her sire is Ghostzapper and her 2nd dam is Pleasant Home, who shocked the 2005 BC Distaff by coming from last and blowing by the field to win by 9+ lengths in good time at odds of 30-1. Beating a true G1 field is a tough task in 2nd lifetime start, but her bloodlines suggests she should be up to the challenge.

6)Proud Emma(20-1) is my choice for second. She caught the slop in her last and while she gave a valiant effort, she really had no shot at catching the runaway winner. She adds blinkers for this test and I always take notice of good works between races and she has two, indicating she should still be sharp.

4)Bell's The One(20-1) looked pretty good beating my second choice in her last, but that was in the slop which can eschewed the results. Not sure if she wants to go a mile, though her bloodlines suggests it is within her scope. However, I find it tough to completely omit her based on her races and will make her my third choice.

1)Serengeti Express(5-2) will be my 4th choice. She is the class of the field, but is known for being inconsistent. Which one will show up this weekend? Regardless, she will have company early and she has never rated or been in a speed duel, which can make what looks like a super horse into an average one.

Bets: Ex Box 6-7, Tri Box 4-6-7, .10 Super Box 1-4-6-7, Super Key 7 with 1-4-6 with 1-4-6 with 1-4-6.

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Race 8: Woody Stephens(G1)--- 3 YOs --- Purse $400,000--- 7 Furlongs:

11) Wendell Fong(10-1) will be my choice to win. He has won 3 of 4 of his starts with his only loss against Alwaysmining. 2 Goods works since his last signals he has kept his conditioning and should produce his best run.

1)Honest Mischief(6-1)is my choice for second. He broke his maiden in his 2nd and last start like a horse that has some serious talent. In his first start, he was given an over confident ride(per chart comment) moved into the lead much too soon and ended up getting caught to finish 2nd. Sire is Into Mischief, a top sire but his dam is Honest Lady, a 1/2 sister to Empire Maker, and she was narrowly beaten in both the 2000 G1 Metropolitan H & G1 BC Sprint against the boys.

6) Nitrous(10-1) is my choice for third. He looks like he is starting to mature into the runner his bloodlines suggest he could be with racing experience. The pace should be lively in here and he has a chance to take another step forward.

3)Borracho(15-1) is my choice for 4th. He will still back and make one run as he has in most of his races. Throw his two 1 1/16 races out which his bloodlines suggests will not be his best distance and you see a horse who tries hard since he got a couple of races experience. His last two works are fast best works of the day and he looks ready to run his best race yet.

Bets: WP 11, Ex Box 1-11, Tri Box 1-6-11, .10 Super Box 1-3-6-11, Super Key 11 with 1-3-6 with 1-3-6 with 1-3-6, Super Key 1 with 3-6-11 with 3-6-11 with 3-6-11.
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Race 9: Metropolitan H(G1)-- 3 YO & Up--- $1,200,000--- 1 Mile:

6) Promises Fulfill(12-1) is my choice to Win His last was simply a tighter to get him ready for the race his connections really wants. I simply believe no one can go with him early and have enough left to win any race and he will not stop if you try to sit behind him and wait for him to. The major difference between 3 and 4 year old years is good horses mature and become the best they can be.

5)Tale Of Silence(30-1) is my choice for second. He will sit back early and make a run for a serious share but I doubt if he is good enough to chase down my top choice, but he will try. His trainer has spent two months trying to get him in peak conditioning and it looks like he is ready, going by his last 2 works.

2) McKinzie(5-2) is my choice for third. He is in a dilemma of sorts. Does he pressure the top choice early and hope he can get by late or does he sit a couple of lengths back and watch the top choice win for fun? He is the key to the results of this race. If he does the former, I believe he will tire late and open the place spot up for a big odds horse.

4) Thunder Snow(5-1) is my choice for fourth. He does not have enough speed to challenge the top choice early, so I believe he will sit a few lengths behind a hot pace and try in vain to score an upset.
Bets: WP 6, Ex Box 5-6, Tri Box 2-5-6, .10 Super 2-4-5-6, Super Key 5 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6.

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Race 10: Manhattan(G1)--- 4 YO & Up--- Purse $1,000,000--- 1 1/4 Mile Inner Turf:

5) Channel Cat(20-1) is my choice to win. He made one start this year and probably needed that start, especially since the course was listed as soft. Trainer removes blinkers for this test and he has 3 pretty good works since that effort, indicating he got something from that first effort of the year. With his solid bloodlines that suggests he is a perfect fit for this distance, definitely will take a shot.

4) Qurbaan(8-1) is my choice for second. He drew the rail at CD on their grass course on a good turf against the heavy favorite in here in their last start and it is the worse place to start from on that course and still managed to finish a close second. Now he gets the more favorable post on this course and has a real shot to turn the tables on the heavy favorite.

8) Bricks And Mortar(7-5) deserves to be the favorite but he does not tower over this field like his earnings suggest. I believe he will put in his late run but this is his sternest test this year. Therefore, while it would not surprise me to see him win, I will use him in the third slot to get him in my tri box.

3)Robert Bruce(6-1) will be my choice to finish 4th. He started in the same race as my top choice and he too was probably in need of a race. However, it is rare to see Brown work any horse so hard, especially a grass horse, so I will presume he feels the horse needs a little more conditioning to get to his fittest level. However, his works since his last also indicates, to me at least, that Brown thinks he is ready and is more in line with the works he usually puts his trainees through. After taking another look, I will keep most of my bets the same, but I will key this one on top of my bigger super.

Bets: WP 5, Ex Box 4-5, Tri Box 4-5-8, .10 Super box 3-4-5-8, Super Key 3 with 4-5-8 with 4-5-8 with 4-5-8.
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11th Race: Belmont S(G1)--- 3 Yo--- Purse $1,500,000--- 1 1/2 Mile:

First, I will mention that I do not like 10)Tacitus(9-5) in this race at all. He passed four horses in the Ky Derby in the stretch(the three that got the unofficial winner taken down and Improbable). His bloodlines suggests he will not want to go this far. He sports the same fifth dam(Best In Show) as the second choice in here(War Of Will). The difference is starting with his dam and broodmare sire, his female family is heavily slant towards sprint distances. War Of Will, however, has more horses that preferred distances over sprints. If either of these beats me, all I can say it is not the first time I have been wrong and probably wouldn't be the last time. But I make money paying attention to detail and Tacitus, especially does not fit.

7)Sir Winston(12-1) is my choice for the upset. Like most horse who started their careers in Canadian, he found that the US are slightly tougher to beat. But he has gained experience with each start and has actually improved every race except the Blue Grass S but that race was ran on a track that gave front runners a huge advantage and he got caught up in trouble nearing the stretch and packed it in. So, to me, that race is a toss out and he fits good against these, based on his other U.S. starts.

4)Tax (15-1) is my choice for second. I simply think he did not care for the off track but he also reportedly came out of that race with a bruised foot. He has worked twice since being given a few weeks to heal up and while not as fast as his works pre derby, it should be enough to have him ready. His pedigree suggests he will tun all day and he has the tactical speed that wins most Belmont S. Probably the best bred horse for distance dirt in the race.

9) War Of Will(2-1) will be my choice for third. He did not show a public work before the Preakness and he does not show one since then either. Works keeps a horse fit and the public inform about how they are doing, but I can not accept low odds when I can only guess if he is doing good, regardless of what a trainer is saying or implying.

5) Bourbon War(12-1)will be my choice for fourth. I will throw his Preakness run out for two reasons. First, he was experiencing blinkers for the first time and second and most importantly, if you did not spend the majority of the race near the rail, then you had no shot to impact the Preakness. The first five finishers spent a majority of the race near the rail. Those that moved out too soon faded. The removal of blinkers and a nice work since indicates he might have a surprise for non believers. Actually, I will probably move him up into my tri box and just use War Of Will in the super.

Bets: WP 7, Ex Box 4-7, Tri Box 4-5-7, .10 Super Box 4-5-7-9, Super Key 7 with 4-5-9 with 4-5-9 with 4-5-9.
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Race 12: Allowance O/C $62,500---- 3 YO & Up--- Purse $95,000--- 1 1/8 Mile Inner Turf:

5) Near Gold(8-1) is my choice to win. He will be making his U.S. debut in this race after starting his career in France. His sire, Dansili, ran 3rd in the BC Turf Mile but is probably better known over here as sire of Flintshire, 2nd twice in the BC Turf. However, Near Gold's dam, Neartica, is a 1/2 sister to Goldikova, a three time winner of the BC Turf Mile. While his trainer has only started a few horses in her career, her % will rise if she keeps getting horses bred like this one to train. Nice workout pattern for first start indicates she might know a little bit more than her winning % suggests so far.

1)Prioritize(7-2) is my choice to finish 2nd. He has ran against the best fields in his short career and is the one to beat. He ran an even race in his first start this year which should have been expected since he was off for six months. With that tightener and his works since, he should run a much improved race.

10) Bird's Eye View(6-1) is my choice for third. He should enjoy the cut back in distance and should be nearing his peak conditioning. He has spent most of his career going slightly longer but his pedigree suggest it might be just a shade too long. Nine furlongs looks like the perfect fit.

9)Holiday Bonus(15-1) is my choice for 4th. He has one second in seven starts this year, in his first start of the year. He has been off form or raced in too high of class for him. In his last, he was entered back into the class of his last win and showed speed before tiring in the stretch to run 4th in a yielding turf at 1 1/4 mile. Like my third choice, he is cutting back to a distance that should be more to his liking.

Bets: WP 5, Ex Box 1-5, Tri Box 1-5-10, .10 Super Box 1-5-9-10, Super Key 5 with 1-9-10 with 1-9-10 with 1-9-10.
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13th Race: Brooklyn Invitational(G2)--- 4 YO & Up--- Purse $400,000--- 1 1/2 Mile:

6)Rocketry(7-2) is my choice to win. He has started twice this year. He ran a flat race in his first start and then finished 2nd in a 5 horse field at a distance that was a little short for him. Now he moves closer to a distance he has ran his best race in and he should be able to pick up his first win this year, especially since there is more pace signed up for this test.

9)Forewarned(30-1) is my choice to finish 2nd. He looks on paper like he has no chance, but his trainer took another horse with close to the same ability named Discreet Lover and kept trying him against top horses in NY, including placing in several graded stakes before finally blowing up the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup with a win at 45-1 late last year, beating horses like Diversify, Mendelssohn, and Thunder Snow. He has three extremely fast bullets and one near bullet work since his last start. And this field is weak compared to most G2 races, as my top choice shows the only G2 win and my 3rd choice has a G3 win showing on their past performances.

2)Campaign(7-2) is my choice for third. as mentioned above, this horse is the only other horse that has a G3 win showing on his past performance and that came in his last start. A bullet work and a 2nd best work, both at 6 furlongs, and three easier works since his last start indicates he is ready to take another step forward. I believe he represents the biggest threat to my top choice.

1)Marconi(9-2) is my choice for 4th. He has won his last two against easier in listed stakes but this represents a pretty steep move up in class in most cases but not so much with this field. However, what I like most about him is he is lightly race and there is still room for improvement as he gains more experience.

Bets: Ex Box 6-9, Tri Box 2-6-9, .10 Super Box 1-2-6-9, Super Key 6 with 1-2-9 with 1-2-9 with 1-2-9.
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Previews of the United Nations; Ohio Derby and more

Thistledown
Race: 9 (5:10 PM EST Post)
Ohio Derby
Global Campaign was super impressive while winning the Peter Pan at Belmont last time out, his third win in four career tries. This half brother to the mega talented Bolt d’Oro stalked fast fractions (:46 & 1:10) before taking command of that race and finishing nine furlongs in a smoking 1:46.3. The son of Curlin got the last furlong in a strong :12.1 that day and had a legitimate excuse (“grabbed a quarter”) in his one and only loss…………..Narrow margin over fast closing, third place Preakness finisher Owendale. This very handsome son of Into Mischief was a ridiculous seven wide on the turn in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown yet was only beaten by 1 ½ lengths to War of Will. Tack on the visually impressive, monster move on the far turn in winning the Lexington Stakes two back and the bullet work last week (5F- :59.2) and you should have a colt who merits a ton of respect in this spot…………………..It’s pretty clear that the stretch running Long Range Toddy didn’t care for the slop in the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby (both Grade:1’s) his last two times out. If you draw lines through both of those races, you’ll see that this colt by Take Charge Indy is as consistent as the day is long as his 7-4-1-1 record would indicate. This Steve Asmussen trainee should like this distance, drops in class and should get a fast track, where he does his best running, come Saturday............................Honorable Mentions: Bethlehem Road is 3 for 3 at Parx, including a minor Stakes win, and is proven at a distance of ground. That said, he’ll be taking an enormous class hike and the :32.4 seconds is took him to run the approximately last 2 ½ furlongs in his last won’t cut it in this spot…………………….Math Wizard is versatile but has speed and draws the rail, so I expect him to come out running here. Although he disappointed as the favorite in a weaker field than this last time out, note the “sneaky” good fourth at 64-1 in the Wood Memorial two starts back and his work patterns/times since May couldn’t be much better…………………….Dare Day has the distinction of being the only horse in this field with a race over the track. This obscurely bred gelding annihilated Ohio state bred maidens and Ohio state bred first level allowances foes in his first two starts as well. His speed figures say he’s not completely out of it but the 15-1 morning line odds are probably about right.

Monmouth Park
Race: 7 (3:33 PM EST Post)
Eatontown Stakes

Although this race drew just six it is a very well matched field as I’m seeing four or five with a good chance to win it. That said, I’ll gingerly take Valedictorian, who although disappointed last time out, rarely throws in a “clunker” as her 20 of 27 on the board finishes, including 11 wins, would indicate. Note, she is 3 for 4 on the Monmouth turf course and also note the supersonic (:22.3) final quarter mile she ran two races back………………………… Inflexibility is a $340,000 daughter of the late Scat Daddy who probably needed her race at Pimlico on May 18 as she was coming off an over 200 day layoff. This five year old mare was 1 for 6 last year but you should take notice of the company she was keeping as they included Champion Sistercharlie, Santa Monica and A Raving Beauty. She will meet no such rivals here and she should be tighter in this race…………………..My Sistersledge made up 13 lengths in the last 6 ½ furlongs in a minor Stakes race on this very turf course last time out. Although it was against lesser caliber foes, note that race was her first start in 216 days. Five year old mare was 4 for 8 last year, so she likes winning and she also should be tighter for this……………Honorable Mentions: Maid to Remember shipped in from overseas and rallied from dead last after completely missing the break in her U.S. debut to just miss beating an allowance field……..quietly looms a threat in this spot………………The owners paid $5,000 for Dynatail and thus far she’s earned almost 100 times that amount including winning three of her last four. Big step up in class here however.

Race: 10 (5:00 PM EST Post)
Philip Iselin Stakes

Although every single one of them was at Charles Town, Runnin’toluvya has all “1’s” down his entire past performance page. This obscurely bred gelding has won an eye popping 10 in a row, from six to nine furlongs, and 13 of 17 in his career overall. This speedy gray doesn’t necessarily have to have the lead either as he can “sit the trip” as well. Hard to go against a horse who all he does is win and beat his main competition fair and square two races back, even if he is “venturing out” of his comfort zone……………………..Try as he may, Diamond King could not get past my top pick down the lane two starts back. This son of Quality Road always fires his best shot as his 10 of 13 on the board finishes, including five wins state. He goes first time blinkers here, so it’ll be interesting to see how he reacts to that……………………….. It’s a good thing I can use his number to bet him because I have no idea how to pronounce Monongahela correctly. Albeit, he is 0 for his last 11 races, he’s run very well in most of them with speed figures that either match or exceed the top two in here. Looks best of the rest and could actually better this rating……………………….Bal Harbour is another who always “shows up”. Note how this son of the sleek looking First Samurai missed the break in his last but was less than three lengths behind Diamond King at the finish. Outside shot here, especially with a clean break.

Race: 11 (5:28 PM EST Post)
United Nations
After winning three of his last four, Focus Group disappointed as the roughly 5/2 favorite in the Grade: 1 Man o’ War last time out. “I can't really explain why he ran so bad (in the Man o' War)," trainer Chad Brown said. "He's been training well. He was in between horses in the back of the pack and got frustrated during the race. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. couldn't get him to settle back there and he wore himself out. He's trained really well since then and I hope we can draw line through it and he can return to his previous form."….exactly Mr. Brown, I’m going to draw a line through that race and, although this is a very competitive spot, I’m coming right back with him here……………………Flip a coin for the place and show spot as Zulu Alpha and Bigger Picture, who are both multiple Graded Stakes winners, are both 2 for 4 this year and took turns beating each other the last two times they met……………………..Honorable Mentions: Channel Cat had legitimate excuses (first start in eight months and then chased Bricks and Mortar in a quickly run Grade: 1) in his first two start this year. Four year old son of English Channel should have no excuses for a good performance in this spot and gets the third start off the layoff angle……………………The globetrotting Monarchs Glen, a son of European super star Frankel, could quietly be sitting on a huge effort. Although he was off the board in his first two U.S. starts against lesser foes, note the final times in both of those races were strong and he was making up ground late in both. Bottom line here is this long shot possibility will be on a couple of my trifecta tickets.

Race: 12 (5:57 PM EST Post)
Lady’s Secret Stakes
Pink Sands is a $625,000 daughter of super sire Tapit who chased far, far better than these in her last two and wasn’t completely embarrassed by any stretch either time. “Shug” adds blinkers here (a move where he wins at 20% clip with)…logical choice………………….Sun Studio beat an allowance field two back and finished just a length behind Pink Sands in her last…………My Miss Lily has been struggling a bit in three starts this year but will also be taking a “plunge” in class in this spot……………..Honorable Mentions: Thanks to a DQ, Breaking Bread is 3 for 3 this year, including a Stakes win on this oval last time out. Steps up in class but could be a menace………………….Coffee Crush has shown improved early speed in her last three races and switches to “speed” rider Paco Lopez. Of course, the elephant in the room with her is how will she handle the surface (turf to dirt) switch?...........................Alberobello was impressive wiring mid level optionals in NY in her last, but what’s up with this being just her eighth career start half way through her four year old season?

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
2019- Record: 37-110 = 34%
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%

Little Bets N’ Pieces:
**** Two time Grade 1 winner Diversify has been retired from racing after reinjuring a suspensory ligament, trainer Jonathan Thomas said last Sunday. The 6 year old gelding will remain at Belmont Park while retirement plans are finalized.
"He worked yesterday. Cooled out well, came out of the work in good order, but I noticed a little bit of abnormal inflammation in his upper suspensory area," Thomas said. "It's a reoccurrence of an old injury. I'd say at this stage it's minor. (The) horse is sound. It's in the minor stages, but certainly not something you'd want to press on with, especially given what this horse has done."
"He's comfortable and sound and happy," Thomas added. "It's kind of one of those injuries where it's at the very beginning, or the very early stages, and probably the only one around the barn that doesn't know he has it is him."
Diversify retires with a 10-2-0 record from 16 starts and earnings of $1,989,425.
"Rest assured, Mr. Evans and his daughter and his wife (Judith), they've been just an incredible support group for this horse, the ownership," Thomas said, "so I can only imagine that the horse is going to definitely be provided with a very, very good home forever."

**** 2019 Kentucky Derby winner Country House will get at least two months off from training and will likely miss the rest of his 3 year old season, trainer Bill Mott said last Saturday night. The news came in an interview with Jerry Bailey on NBC Sports’ live telecast of the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs.
“He just wasn’t as eager to get into his training as he had been,” Mott said “We just felt like he wasn’t moving as well as he should be. We had him checked out again, and I think the determination is that we probably need to give him more time. Right now, we’d have trouble making the Travers or the Breeders’ Cup, and I don’t believe we’d be able to get him back to the races in as good a shape right now as what we would have to have him to run at that very top level. To give him a fair chance and bring him back as a 4 year old, we’re going to give him a little extra time.”

**** 2019 Belmont Stakes winner Sir Winston has been ruled out of a summer campaign due to a minor left front ankle injury.
“He has a minor left front ankle injury and he’s going to do some rehab at the farm. He’s back in Ocala now, he’s going to be off for a little while,” said trainer Mark Casse. “I’m still hopeful we’ll be back in the fall, we’ll play it by ear. The Travers is not going to be an option.”
Casse mentioned the Pegasus World Cup Stakes in January as a possible long term goal.
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My Choices For Belmont Park, Saturday July 6(Belmont Oaks & Derby Day)

These are my choices at the moment for races this weekend. However, I plan to start watching the tote board again, a tactic I had a lot of success with years ago, before I installed my current plan of betting the horses. While tote board watching often gives you clues in which horse is most likely to win if you learn which one is receiving bets from "smart money" bettors, who usually are betting with some inside information that most of the public knows nothing and/or heard about. While most of my bets will stay the same, there will be a few occasions I decide to switch onto a more well regarded horse to try to hit exactas and trifectas more often. However, since this is usually just before post on most occasions, I will not be able to change my thoughts on any post in time, so I would encourage others to learn more about the real serious bettors. The only reason I do not like using this system is it tends to overlook horses that I think has a real shot at pulling an upset but that is mostly because they did not receive any inside information on these types.
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I will take a pass on races 1 and 3. There does not seem to be enough value in these races to take a risk on.
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Race 2 Maiden Claiming $40,000--- 3 YO & Up Restricted To NY Breds---Purse $41,000--- 1 1/16 Mile Turf:
Another fairly weak field, it offers value that will pay decently if you can beat the morning line favorite, who is not a lock against anyone, and a sucker type horse, who has gotten close several times, but has yet to complete the job. So my choices will be:
1)Keep The Light On(20-1)--- He has made one start in his career on a good turf course at 6 furlongs and was last for most of the way before picking up a few tired and inexperienced horses in the stretch. But his bloodlines suggest he will be better at middle distances on grass and he gets that opportunity in here. His sire, Willcox Inn, was a multiple G1 Stakes placed runner who finished just behind Wise Dan twice in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile while 2nd one year and third the next year. This will be his only crop to race as he was fatally injured in a paddock injury while wrapping up his only season at stud.
11) Millies Party Boy(6-1) is my choice for second. He finished third in his first career start and then tolled in maiden special races for seven more starts, always offering a late run but left with too much to do. Then dropped into maiden claiming and after a couple of decent runs in this class, he looked ready to graduate late last year, finishing second by a neck and then third, beaten two lengths. Then he was entered in two dirt races to finish up the year and he responded with two of the worst races of his career. With one start this year in an open bred maiden special weight where he returned to his old style and made a solid run to get into contention before flattening out in the stretch in his first start in seven months. Again he signaled he is ready to graduate. But this time he is entered in the right class, restricted to state breds, and on the right surface.
10)Golconda(8-1) is my choice for third. He has made 11 starts with 2 seconds and a third as his best efforts. He beat my second choice in his only on the board finish on grass in five starts on a yielding turf but was beaten by that foe in their next start on a good turf when my second choice just missed graduating. Since those races, they look like they have gone in opposite directions. However, since he is dropping back down into the class he seems to fit best in and his last two works since his last start was his best in his recent past, he could be signaling he is ready to wake up and produce his best run.
5)No More Miracles(6-1) is my choice for fourth. After 5 starts on dirt and performing poorly in each, he was switched to grass sprints and came alive in his last two. But 1 1/16 miles is probably a little farther than what should be his best distance and therefore I will place him here. However, I think he will be closer if the race remains on grass but is less than firm, as I expect him to be near the lead throughout.
Bets: WP 1, Ex Box 1-11, Tri Box 1-10-11, .10 Super Box 1-5-10-11, Super Key 1 with 5-10-11 with 5-10-11 with 5-10-11.
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Race 4: Allowance ---- 3 YO & Up Fillies And Mares---- Purse $66,000 ---- 6 1/2 Furlongs:
8)Bangle Girl(4-1) is my choice to win. She is exiting her maiden win but has faced several highly regarded NY breds in her two worst races, including the one(Newly Minted) who ran by the heavy favorite in here with ease. Her sire, Emcee, is a G1 winning sprinter and her broodmare sire, Hold That Tiger, is a G1 winning middle distance runner but his best known son is Smiling Tiger, a multiple G1 winning sprinter in his own right.
4)Cathy Naz(8-1) is my choice for second. While she should get a pretty good trip behind two dueling front runners, my top choice will probably get to sit the better trip and be gone before she can catch up to that one. While it looks like this is a step up for her, she actually is the only horse in the race to finish in front of open bred multiple winners and older fillies. Actually, the filly that beat her in her last two ran 2nd to Highway Star( at 2-5) late last year in a big state bred stakes. She also looks like she is cycling back into her best form, judging by 4 good works since her last.
6)Mary's Girl(12-1) is my choice for third. She has been racing in multiple winners races, but they have been restricted to 3 YOs and NY breds and this is a step up in class for her. However, she, too, looks like she is peaking into her best form and she has not only the bloodlines but also has developed a late run that should help her. The main question with her is can she handled the rise in class?
1)OK Honey(20-1) is my choice for fourth. At first glance, it looks like she does not have much of a chance to make an impact. While both her sire, Haynesfield, and broodmare sire, Not For Love, both won distance races in their racing careers, both have more foals that are better at sprinting compared to distance racing. And she seems to be following that same route. Her five placing in twelve starts suggests 6 furlongs is a little short for her but a mile is a tad further that she wants, as she has made several moves to get the lead, only to get ran down near the finish. And like several other, she appears to be regaining her best form after four uninspiring tries after winning before an improved race in her last start after stepping into an open bred race. Now she returns to NY bred and gets a distance that should be more to her liking.
Bets: WP 8, Ex Box 4-8, Tri Box 4-6-8, .10 Super Box 1-4-6-8, Super Key 8 with 1-4-6 with 1-4-6 with 1-4-6.
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Race 5: Maiden Special Weight --- 2 Yos --- Purse $80,000 --- 6 Furlongs Turf:
1)Hard Sting(12-1) is my choice to win. He is making his first career start off a series of good works. His sire, Hard Spun, won 7 of 13 lifetime starts but also finished second in the Ky Derby and BC Classic, third in the Preakness and fourth in the Belmont S while banking over $2.6M. Hard Sting's dam, Smart Sting, won 4 of 13 lifetime starts including a couple of Canadian stakes races and banked over $400K while spending her career on the AWT and/or grass. Second dam, Perfect Sting, won 14 of 21 lifetime starts while banking $2.2M, almost all on grass. Another Stonach bred and a horse he kept to run.
6)Montauk Daddy(3-1) is my choice for second. He has made one start, an off the grass race ran on an sloppy track and he closed well to finish second in a good time. While his sire, Daddy Long Legs, is not one of the best foals of turf specialist Scat Daddy, he did win the UAE Derby. He did not hit the board in any of his last 11 starts, including a did not finish in the Ky Derby. Montauk Daddy's broodmare sire, Old Fashioned, won his first four starts before finishing second in both the G2 Rebel S And G2 Arkansas Derby before an injury forced his retirement. However, Montauk Daddy's dam line is stocked full of serious grass runners.
8)Now Is(20-1) is my choice for third, though I believe he has a good to solid shot at an upset. He has made two lifetime starts, the first on grass where he broke a little slow, then tracked the pace but was no match for the top two. Then he was tried in a stakes race on dirt and was simply overmatched at this point in his career. Now entered back on the surface he will eventually prefer most and another furlong to work with, I expect him to get out front and wing it. While there is other speed signed up, they better have their running shoes on from the get go, because a minor hesitation is all this one will need to wire this field. His sire, Sidney's Candy, was fast from the gate on dirt but appeared even faster on grass.
3)Silver Promise(6-1) is my choice for fourth. He is another well bred sort that is working good for his debut. He looks like the only one fast enough to go with my third and my top choice early and if he breaks a little slow, which is always possible with first time starters, the outcome may be a foregone conclusion. His sire Declaration Of War and his broodmare sire, Tapit, both had some speed but neither was lightning fast from the gate.
Bets: WP 1, Ex Box 1-6, Ex Key 8 with 1-6, Ex Key 1-6 with 8, Tri Box 1-6-8, .10 Super Box 1-3-6-8, Super Key 1 with 3-6-8 with 3-6-8 with 3-6-8.
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Race 6: Dwyer S(G3) --- 3 YOs --- Purse $250,000 --- 1 Mile:
4)Whiskey Echo(20-1) is my choice to win. He has made one start this year and won in a good time. He has since worked out four times, with three bullets followed by an maintenance breeze. His sire, Tiznow, is one everyone should know about but the dam line is probably a mystery to most. While Whiskey Echo's dam was unraced, his 2nd dam, Aishah, is a G2 winning full sister to Althea, Champion 2 YO Filly Of 1983 who shattered the Arkansas Derby stakes record in 1984 while equaling Oaklawn Park's track record for 1 1/8 mile. This horse was born to run and so far he has!
3)Code Of Honor(4-5) is my choice to finish second and will be heavily bet. While he has raced against the best competition thus far, he has beaten very little in both his wins and that makes him vulnerable in this spot.
6)Majid(6-1) is my choice for third. He will try to take this field from gate to wire as he has done in each of his last three starts, but better horses are signed up for this test that any of those races. While I believe he will crumble due to the early pressure, he should hang around for a piece in such a short field.
2)Rowayton(3-1) is my choice for fourth. He is one who will apply early pressure on my third choice but he has yet to prove he can put away other speed and keep going up to a mile. His broodmare sire, Indian Charlie, always gives me reservations about using any of his foals in exactas and trifectas when they are going longer than 7 furlongs with other front runners present as most of them are prong to stopping badly when faced with heavy pressure.
Bets: WP 4, Ex Box 3-4, Tri Box 3-4-6, .10 Super Box 2-3-4-6, Super Key 4 with 2-3-6 with 2-3-6 with 2-3-6.
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7th Race: Belmont Oaks(G1) --- 3 YO Fillies --- Purse $750,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile Turf:
6)Just Wonderful(6-1) is my choice to win. She has made three starts this year, all at 1 mile and she showed little in each. However, the filly who won the first 2 and finished second in the last one(Hermosa) is Europe's leading 3 YO filly miler at this point and she also beat Just Wonderful in her only G1 test in Europe last year. But Just Wonderful will do better as the distances gets longer. Her dam, Wading's 3/4 sister, Athena, shipped over here last year to win this race for her only G1 score to date. Just Wonderful's third dam, Urban Sea, is dam of Galileo and Sea The Stars, both champions and top sires in Europe.
1)Olendon(9-2) is my choice for second. She has made three starts this year and has improved in each, including her first G1 placing in her last. While that race is an important European test, it pales in comparison to the three my top choice competed in this year. She has a good blend of speed and distance in both the sire and dam lines and should make her presence known late.
9)Cambier Parc(4-1) is my choice for third. She has won three of her four starts this year but now gets the acid test. Her sire, Medaglia D'Oro and her broodmare sire, Point Given, are both multiple G1 winners on dirt but her dam,Sealy Hill, is multiple G1 placed on grass and won the Woodbine Oaks on the AWT.
3)Coral Beach(15-1) is my choice for fourth. She, too, has made three starts this year, the first two in the French and Ireland 1,000 Guineas, a race for top European 3 YO fillies milers and then the Sandringham S where she produce her best run this year against easier. But she probably still needed that start to reach her best shape and now should be ready to get it her best effort. While her sire, Zoffany, was a top sprintemiler during his racing career, her broodmare sire, Tiger Hill, completed against the best distance horses in Europe. She also has some more distance help in her dam line as third dam is a daughter of Surumu, a product of Germany's best distance sire line for more than 150 years.
Bets: WP 6, Ex Box 1-6, Tri Box 1-6-9, .10 Super Box 1-3-6-9, Super Key 6 with 1-3-9 with 1-3-9 with 1-3-9.
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8th Race: John A Nerud S(G2) --- 3 YO & Up --- Purse $300,000 --- 7 Furlongs:
9) Promises Fulfilled(2-1) is my choice to win. He has made 3 starts this year with one third his best effort. But in his last, chart says he stumbled at the start, but all I saw was he was a little sluggish to get in gear. However, the jockey tried to get him to rate after he saw he could not get the lead as the horse prefers and he flatten out in the stretch. But it was the type of race he needed to get him to his peak form. His 2-1 M/L odds is very generous, so I would not expect him to get off at those odds.
4)Nicodemus(6-1) is my choice for second. He has made 5 starts this year, missing the board in every other start while winning twice. It is only a matter of time before he starts putting back to back races together. While his sire, Candy Ride is known for foals with high speed, he probably gets his closing ability from his dam, Leah's Secret, who won several G2 stakes during her racing career, all from off the pace. However, her sire, Tiger Ridge is the only horse you will ever see that has both Secretariat's top two producing daughters as dam and grand dam. His sire is Storm Cat, a son of Terlingua, while his dam is Weekend Surprise.
2)New York Central(8-1) is my choice to finish third. Early in his career, he was a need the lead type that threw clunkers when someone outbroke him. But since he has been shorten back up to sprints, he has shown a willingness to rate, something he will need to hit the board in this spot.
1)Majestic Dunhill(15-1) is my choice for fourth. he has four starts this year and appears to be regaining his best form. While he normally comes for way back with a late rush in the stretch, you can expect him to be picking off horses late and could possibly get involved in the exacta, though I think winning is unlikely, mostly due to my top choice.
Bets: No WP, Ex Box 4-9, Tri Box 2-4-9, Tri Key 9 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4, Super Key 9 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4.
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Race 9: Belmont Derby(G1) --- 3 YOs --- Purse $1,000,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile Turf:
9)Cape Of Good Hope(10-1) is my choice to win. He has made 3 starts this year with 1 win in a non graded stakes, but it was a prep for the Epsom Derby. However, O'Brien is usually loaded with three years old colts and he decided to send this one to contest the G1 Prix Du Jockey Club and he just missed becoming a G1 placed in that effort. I'm throwing his last out as maybe he did not like the give in the turf course that day. He has two graded stakes winning full brothers, Highland Reel, who most probably heard of as he made three trips to the U.S, winning the G1 Secretariat, then returning the next year to win the G1 BC Turf and then the nest year to finish third in the BC Turf and Idaho, third in the Epsom Derby and 2nd in the Irish Derby, among several other top races.
5)Plus Que Parfait(20-1) is my choice for second. He has one win in four starts this year but now is switching to the surface he was originally bred for. While he made his first lifetime start on grass at a mile and finished third, he was then switched to dirt where he was inconsistent. Now a return to his best surface and a little more distance, he should be around at the end.
4)English Bee(30-1) is my choice for third. He won his last start which was his first stakes win and now gets the acid test to prove he belongs with the top grass runners. He has the perfect pattern for young horses who are poised to run their career best race. And while this race is stocked with horses who may like the 1 1/4 mile distance, none is even close to the bloodlines and proven distance loving abilities of both his sire, English Channel and his broodmare sire, Kitten's Joy. Both English Channel and Kitten's Joy was beaten by Better Talk Now in separate BC Turfs but English Channel returned in 2007 and turned the BC Turf in a laughter, beating Better Talk Now and Europe's best by 7 lengths.
3)Seismic Wave(5-1) is my choice for fourth. He has hit the board in 5 of 6 lifetime starts and he just missed hitting the board in his only non placing as he was forced to go wide and circled the field to miss winning by 1 1/2 lengths. Now the added distance will only help him. While the talk has always been about Northern Dancer as a sire, it is his dam line that made him the sire he turned out to be and she, Natalma, appears as the sixth dam of Seismic Wave, meaning he traces tail female back into Almahmoud and later into Fair Play's grandson and Mother Goose, a filly who has a race named in her honor.
Bets: WP 9, Ex Box 5-9, Tri Box 4-5-9, .10 Super Box 3-4-5-9, Super Key 9 With 3-4-5 with 3-4-5 With 3-4-5.
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Race 10: Suburban S(G2) --- 3 Yo & Up--- Purse $700,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile:
3) Rocketry(8-1) is my choice to win. He tried in vain to catch the only speed who set a snail pace in their last and just manage to hold off his late run. With more speed signed on, I look for him to blow by the front runners in here.
11) Pavel(8-1) is my choice for 2nd. He is following basically the same pattern as he followed last year. Last year, he started with a fourth in the San Pasqual, followed by a fourth in the Dubai World Cup and a fourth in the Gold Cup at SA before winning the G1 Stephen Foster H. This year, after a fourth in both the San Pasqual & Dubai World Cup, he finished sixth in the Metropolitan Mile. Now he enters the G2 Suburban S off two decent works and his fourth start this year. He also adds blinkers and that signals to me that his trainer wants to keep him just behind the early pace setters.
5) Lone Sailor(8-1) is my choice for third. He cycled back into his best form two starts back, then was sent to California to contest a G1 on a track that works against his style of running but he managed to finished a distant third. Now with two decent works since returning from that effort, I feel he is ready to fire again over several of these he is entered against. Now he adds blinkers which should help him stay a little closer to the pace.
10)Cordmaker(12-1)is my choice for fourth. It looks like his trainer has been taking his time with this one to let him mature and he has slowly improved step by step. Now it is time to see what they have developed. While he is taking a big step up in class, his bloodlines suggests he should handle it and if this was not his first attempt at this class, he would be in my top two picks.
Bets: WP 3, Ex Box 3-11, Tri Box 3-5-11, .10 Super Box 3-5-10-11, Super Key 3 With 5-10-11 With 5-10-11 With 5-10-11.
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Race 11: Maiden Special Weight --- 3 YO & Up ---Purse $80,000 ---- 1 Mile Turf:
9) Windward Sands(3-1) is my choice to win. A member of the last crop of Scat Daddy, she is working like she will win early in her career. Trainer Brown is sneaky good at having his horses ready at first asking, especially on grass.
1)Downstream(12-1) is my choice for second. She has made one start and after setting the pace for six furlongs on a yielding grass course, she did a steady retreat. But the horse pressing her throughout was Newspaperofrecord who drew away at ease and made her race look worse than it actually was.
2) Ledecka(7-2) is my choice for third. She has finished second in both of her starts, so that is the biggest reason to place her here. Also, experience counts in my book and she has ran credible both times while getting a little education in each. But this will be by far her biggest challenge as there looks like several newcomers with real ability to challenge her.
11)Foolish Living(6-1) is my choice for fourth. Another Brown trainee, she, too, is making her first start and has some sneaky good works, much like my top choice. While I think she has some good bloodlines, I prefer the other Brown's trainee bloodlines more.
Bets: WP 9, Ex Box 1-9, Tri Box 1-2-9, .10 Super Box 1-2-9-11, Super Key 9 With 1-2-11 With 1-2-11 With 1-2-11.
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My Picks For Arlington Million Day, Saturday, August 11, 2018.

I have made my choices on who I am going to bet At Arlington this weekend on Million Day. The first six races or so, I am simply looking to pick up a little change as the races are mostly filled with runners with limited ability. But I do like several in the better races and will take my shot in those races, though I have to leave a few out because I do not spread on my wagers.
1st Race: Maiden Claiming $15-10,000--- 3 YOs And Up Illinois Bred Fillies & Mares--- 6 furlongs AWT--- Purse $14,000:
This race looks like it will run to form, so I like 3)Rachelgotstephen(5-2) to win. But since I do not bet any horse to WP under 3-1), I will use this horse in exacta and tri boxes only. Her trainer Joe Kirby is the son of Frank Kirby who owns this horse but apparently has turned training duties over to his son. Frank Kirby was a trainer that would always bring a longshot in for me when I needed it the most. She has started twice this year and ran 4th both times. Dropping into maiden claimers for the first time this year, so the class break should help.
1)High Power(2-1) will be the one I use in an exacta box with my top pick. She dropped into this class for the first time in her last and open a clear lead before tiring. However, her trainer, Reavis, wins a lot of races in gate to wire fashion. He is switching jockeys to the lesser known Marquez, Jr but he is known for his ability to rate a horse on the lead. Should be a late factor.
6)Frosty Friend(3-1) has done nothing in his first two starts, but they were at Tampa Bay in races open to all fillies. Given a 4 month break where the trainer spent the time getting her fit to run as her works have improved and she seems to enjoy the all weather track, which her bloodlines says she should. Chris Block has been one of the better trainers in Illinois for almost 20 years. Will not be surprise if she wins this race, though I will use her in my tri box only.
2nd Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs--- 6 Furlongs AWT---Purse $32,000.
I like the 1)Drilliant(8-1) to WP. His sire Drill, is a son of Lawyer Ron and he won the G1 Del Mar Futurity in his 3rd lifetime start on that track's all weather surface. His broodmare sire, Forbidden Apple, was a multiple graded stakes winner on grass in New York. If Drilliant run to his works, He will be tough to beat in here.
7) Hide The Demon(5-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. His sire, Run Away And Hide won all three of his starts, including the G2 Saratoga Special, before an injury ended his career. His broodmare sire is Tapit, who needs no introduction as he has been among the leading sires every year since he went to stud. Hide The Demon would be my top pick but I feel Drilliant has been prepared better for his debut.
2)Grit To Glory(8-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. His sire, Pioneerof The Nile, is sire of 2015 TC winner American Pharoah, but his dam, Live For Now, is a 1/2 sister to Point Given. His works has not been as flashy as my top two picks, but he certainly has the bloodlines to succeed.
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YOs & Up--- One Mile Turf--- Purse $32,000.
I like the 7)Fifth Ace(4-1) to WP. He has made one lifetime start which came on the all weather track at Presque Isle Downs where he tracked the pace, took the lead turning into the stretch and finished 6th, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. Now, he has been entered in a grass race at the same distance and his bloodlines suggests he will like that surface even more. His dam, Model, is a daughter of Giant's Causeway and her dam is a G1 placed daughter of Machiavellian, the sire of Street Cry.
3)Wicked Gem(6-1) has made three lifetime starts, all on dirt, and has shown very little. However, his trainer, Kellyn Gorder. knows how to get a horse to produce and he has a series of works since his last that indicates he has or is ready to take the necessary step forward. His sire, Gemologist, won his first 5 lifetime starts before he was plummeted in the Ky Derby & Haskell Inv in his last two starts. And while he was never tried on grass, his bloodlines suggest that would probably be the surface he preferred. Add in Wicked Gem's broodmare sire, Mr Greeley(son of Gone West), Clever Trick(son of Northern Dancer's 3/4 brother Icecapade), and English TC Winner Nijinsky II(son of Northern Dancer), this horse should explode on grass. He will be my choice to complete my exacta box.
8)Duchossois(3-1) will be my choice for my tri box. His sire, Animal Kingdom, won the 2011 Ky Derby for his only lifetime dirt winner and spent the rest of his career more successful on grass and all weather tracks. However, I do not like that his last 2 works were extremely fast and they are uncovered. These types disappoints me more than their fair share, so I am willing to take a stand against him winning but will include him in my tri box. Roger Brueggemann is a solid trainer though, so this horse is not out of the question.
4th Race: Allowance O/C $18,000--- N/W 1 Other Than Or Which Have Never 2 Races Or Claiming $18,000--- 3 YO & Up-- One Mile Turf--- Purse $33,000.
I am going to take the only 3 YO in the field and make 5)Southsider(12-1) my choice to WP. His sire, First Defence, was a G1 winning sprinter but his broodmare sire, Southern Halo, was champion sire whose foals ran well on grass and dirt. Add Northern Dancer twice on his female side and Never Bend and one mile should suit him fine. He tried one mile on grass in his first lifetime start, but got off to a slow start and a good run before flatten out late on a turf listed as firm but by the fractions and final times, was obviously very slow. I believe he makes amends against these.
3)Belfast Cowboy(4-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He has the same sire(Myboycharlie) and broodmare sire(Galileo) as the M/L favorite Sistercharlie in the Beverly D to be ran later on the card. He has 3 lifetime starts on three different all weather tracks and switches to grass for the first time. He crosses 4x4 to Danzig which gives him a ticket to win on any surface, especially up to a mile. However, hos broodmare sire, Galileo, is strictly a grass horse whose foals gets better the further they go.
2)Salvage Battle(15-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. His sire, War Front, is a son of Danzig whose foals are speedy like he was, but most do their best running on grass. He is now known as a sire of sires as several of his sons were graded stakes winners on grass and are producing foals that are excelling on that surface too. He has two starts this year, one at 5 furlongs on the AWT and the other at 1 1/16 mile grass, where he broke last, then tried to press the pace after a quarter mile before tiring in the stretch. One nice work since and his trainer, Chris Block, is better known for winning with his grass runner. However, I feel he will be even better in his next start, and major improvement is expected today.
5th Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs Fillies--- 5 1/2 Furlongs AWT--- Purse $32,000.
I like the 1)Take The Over(9-2) to WP. His sire, Overanalyze, was leading first crop sire of 2 YOs by winners last year and should continue making his presence felt. Her works says she should be ready to show the speed her female family displayed in their careers. Michael Stidham is very good with his first time starters also, so I expect a solid race from this one.
8)Twist And Shout(8-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. Her sire, Discreet Cat, broke his maiden in his first start in 109 4/5 at Saratoga and was then purchased privately by Godolphin who bred and owns this filly. Her trainer, Eoin Harty, used to train for Godolphin for a while, they went separate ways for several years and have now joined forces again and are winning with horses that are overlooked, including a couple at Saratoga this year. This filly is working as good as my top choice, if not slightly better. Should make for a thrilling race if both breaks like expected.
11)Kajawa(7-2) will be my choice to complete my tri box and she could play spoiler to my exacta. She finished 2nd in her first start on this track and distance. Her trainer, Mike Reavis, wins his share with runners on the lead and she should improve off her first start. Her sire, Cross Traffic, raced only as a 4 YO and ran 2nd in the G1 Metropolitan Mile, getting caught at the wire before going gate to wire in the G1 Whitney H, beating 2 BC Classic winners and a Santa Anita H winner. Her broodmare sire, Maria's Mon, was 2 YO Champion in his only year of racing and the sire of two Ky Derby winners, Monarchos & Super Saver. Lots to like, a small step forward is all that is needed.
6th Race: Claiming 12,500-$10,000--- 3 YOs & Up Which Have Never Won 2 Races--- 1 1/16 Miles Turf--- Purse $13,500.
I will use the 6)Colonel Fred(5-2) in my exotics but will bypass playing him to WP as his odds are a little low for my taste. I think this horse is fit enough to win, it is only a matter of find a field he can beat. Colonel John's foals have been a lot better on grass than dirt so far and while I do not think he outclasses this field, he looks the most likely of a weak field.
3)Justenufftuff(15-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta and the more I look at him, I think he is one that warrants a small WP bet. His sire, Justenuffhumor, won a pair of G2 turf races at Saratoga and he is a 1/2 brother to multiple G2 AWT winner, Lewis Michael, and Champion 2 YO filly, Dreaming Of Anna, who won the BC Juvenile Fillies. Their dam, Justenuffheart, is a 1/2 sister to Kitten's Joy. His last start was his first on grassin a turf sprint and he drew the rail, hit the gate and did not pick up his feet after thatin a distance that was probably too short for him. Brian Williamson trains and learned from his father-in-law, Harvey Vanier, and knows how to get them ready.
8)All Strikes(8-1) will be my choice to complete the tri box. While anyone could jump up in here and surprise, he has picked up a lot of minor shares and I normally like to use these types underneath in exotics, but in no way would I bet any across the board money on this type. Simply too risky.
7th Race: Starter O/C $10,000-$5,000. 3 YO & Up Which Have Started For A $5,000 Claiming Price Or Less Since Jan 1st Or Claiming Price $10,000-- One Mile Turf--- Purse $15,000.
6)Diamondmaze(9-2) will be my choice to WP. He last started on May 28 at one mile on grass, hit the gate coming out, settled near the back on a yielding turf course, made a menacing move into the stretch before flattening out late, His last win was also one mile on grass where he broke alertly and took the field wire to wire on the tiring Fair Grounds turf course. I expect him to get a better break today with 3 decent works in July and they might not be able to catch him.
11)Dancing Rock(12-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. In his last off a 2 month break, he sat slightly off the pace, engaged the front runner turning into the stretch, but both were caught by late runners in an effort that was better that it looks. He should move forward off that effort and this is his fourth start this year. While he shows no works since his last, the Kirby's owns their own farm and it has a training track, so you can bet he is fit. Could upset my top choice if pace is faster than expected.
9)Spanish Justice(12-1) will complete my tri box. He has been sprinting on grass lately and should show front running speed on the stretch out and is a big threat to my top choice in making the pace too fast early. And for those that have no idea, his sire, Spanish Steps is a full brother to Unbridled's Song and Spanish Steps is sire of G1 BC Turf wire to wire winner and Older Grass Champion Little Mike. So this horse will have speed to spare.
Race 8: Bruce D Memorial Stakes--- 3 YOs--- One Mile AWT--- Purse $100,000.
6)Wile E Coyote(12-1) will be my choice to WP. He won his last start but was DQ to 2nd for drifting in, impeding the runner up. But they were clear of the rest of the field. I usually consider all City Zip's foals up to a mile , especially on grass and the AWT plays a lot like grass. City Zip is a 1/2 brother to Ghostzapper. Wile E Coyote's broodmare sire, Cactus Ridge, is a son of Hennessy who is best known as sire of Johannesburg(sire of Scat Daddy) and Henny Hughes(sire of Beholder). Cactus Ridge won all 4 of his starts and his best foal was the G1 winning filly Hot Cha Cha but this daughter also won almost $550,000 on the track.
8)Nottoway(10-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He should get a nice stalking trip and could be the one to take advantage of an expected speed duel. His sire, Twirling Candy, showed a lot of front running speed in his racing career, but his broodmare sire, Harlan's Holiday, won both the G1 Florida Derby And G1 Blue Grass S before running 7th in the Ky Derby as the lukewarm favorite. His best son, Into Mischief, is a top sire in racing today. And Nottoway shows the style of racing that carried Harlan's Holiday to most of his top graded wins.
7)The Tabulator(2-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. He is the class of this field but has shown he runs better if he can get a clear lead early which I do not expect him to get. The fields he has beaten are suspect at best and he has yet to beat a top horse. No way is he a single in any exotic wager, IMO.
Race 9: G1 Secretariat Stakes----- 3 YOs---- 1 1/4 Miles Turf---- Purse $400,000.
9)Analyze It(2-1) will be my choice to WP but I will probably only use him in my exotics bets as his odds will be lower than what I am risking to wager on. His sire, Point Of Entry, took a while before he put it all together and then he became a beast to beat, winning 9 of 18 lifetime starts, including 7 of his last 9 starts, including 5 G1 wins. Both of his losses came in the G1 BC Turf when 2nd to the aforementioned Little Mike and 4th to Galileo's son, Magician, both longshots. A single in exotics, IMO.
I am going to throw everyone a serious contender if they want to make money. 6)Ming(20-1) will be my choice to complete the exacta. His sire, Pour Moi, won 3 of 5 lifetime starts, including the G1 Epsom Derby in his final start. Pour Moi is a grandson of Sadler's Wells and also sire upset 2017 G1 Epsom Derby winner Wings Of Eagles(40-1 odds) from his first crop to race. His broodmare sire Persian Bold is a son of Ireland 2 YO champion Bold Lad. The sire of Ming's 2nd dam is Secreto, who beat El Gran Senor in the G1 Epsom Derby. Sire of his 3rd dam is Sham, second to Secretariat in the G1 Ky Derby & Preakness S. And the sire of his 4th dam is Majestic Prince, who was sweeping the 1969 U.S. Triple Crown before suffering a career ending injury to finish 2nd in his only career loss. Don't know about anyone else, but this is one horse that will be in all my exotics and I will probably end up betting some to WP on him. He taking a big step up in class but he would be far from the first to spring an upset in a major U.S. grass race. Joseph O'Brien is a son of Aidan O'Brien who started training because he gain too much weight(due to his height mostly) to tack the weight required on most horses. He is already a G1 winning trainer.
13)Hunting Horn(7-2) will be my choice to complete my tri box. He is trained by Aidan O'Brien and will make his presence felt. His sire, Camelot, is yet another son of Sadler's Wells stallion, Montjeu(like Pour Moi) and Camelot came the closest to sweeping the English TC since 1970 when Nijinsky II turned the hat trick and it was first career loss when a fast closing second. The Belmont Invitational was his first start as a 3 YO and his third should more him forward.
I will try to hit a super in here. On a small super box, I will throw in the 11)Dubby Dubbie(30-1). Then on a biggie super, I will box my top 3 and put 11)Dubby Dubbie in 4th. While I do not think he can beat my top three, I like and respect his trainer, Michele Lovell, enough to put him underneath. And stranger things have happen in horse racing.
10th Race: G1 Beverly D Stakes---- 3 YO & Up Fillies And Mares---- 1 3/16 Miles Turf---- Purse $600,000.
1)Daddy's Lil Darling(8-1) will be my choice to WP. She won the prep for this race while geared down and now comes the acid test, which I expect her to pass with flying colors.
4)Dona Bruja(6-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. She ran 2nd in this race last year as the favorite. The horse who upset her, Dacita, first got recognition when she ran past Tepin in the G2 Ballston Spa in her first start in the U.S., the race before Tepin went on an eight race win streak. She will be making her 3rd start this year and first in three months but her works shows she is fit.
7)Fourstar Crook(9-2) will be my choice to complete the tri box. She has three start this year and ran well in all three. She is making her first start in two months but has been on the work tab regularly and should be primed to give her best effort.
And for the second race in a row, I will give another longshot to be on the lookout for. I do not like this one as much as my last one, but I will box a small super using her with my top 3 picks. 6)Oh So Terrible(50-1) will be my choice for that super. Her form does not show much but she has ran in three graded stakes and excuses can be found why she did not run better. But she has been this distance only once in her career and that was the prep for this race, but she ran her best race yet in only her third start this year. Trainer gave her another race to sharpen her speed, then worked her in a 33 4/5 blowout at 3 furlongs on the AWT and then an easy breeze in 102 for 5 furlongs. But the best part is her sire, Cape Blanco. He is a son of Galileo and after winning the G1 Irish Derby at 3 , shipped to the U. S. at 4 and won the G1 Man O' War S, G1 Arlington Million and the G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic in his only 3 starts in this country. Oh So Terrible broodmare sire, Numerous, hails from the same female family as Sadler's Wells, Nureyev and even Blame.
11th Race: G1 Arlington Million S--- 1 1/4 Miles Turf--- 3 YOs & Up---- Purse $1,000,000.
I think this race is the weakest of the stakes at Arlington this weekend. But still should be competitive. 7)Twenty Four Seven(30-1) will be my choice to WP. His trainer, Roger Brueggemann, took over his training at the start of this year and he won his first 3 starts under his guidance, before finishing sixth in his last race. The owner of this horse is Midwest Thoroughbreds and they have won over 2600 races and purses over $50M. One of their horse you may have heard of is The Pizza Man, who won the Arlington Million in 2015. Trainer? Roger Brueggemann!! Now, Twenty Four Seven is a son of City Zip, which should tell this distance is further that he wants to go. But that is only if you consider the sire side only. His broodmare sire, War Chant, is a son of Danzig and won the G1 BC Turf Mile in his 8th and final start. Hollywood Wildcat, War Chant's dam, won the G1 BC Distaff in her final start. Twenty Four Seven's second dam, Amelia Bearhart, is the dam of Chief Bearhart, who won the G1 BC Turf at Hollywood Park in 1997. Smash it all together and you get a horse that will not be consider by most. But I will take a shot at a monstrous payday, you can bet that.
9) Deauville(6-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He ran third in each of the last two years in the Arlington Million and he took the lead in the stretch both times only to get nipped at the wire. His trainer, Aidan O'Brien, followed basically the same path as last year but has been pointing for this race. And since his sire is Galileo and he is bred on the same pattern as Frankel, there is no way I will leave him out.
2) Spring Quality(8-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. He normally run fairly close to the lead but was taken back near the back in his last race. I am guessing it was because he was stuck on the far outside on the inner turf course at Belmont, and horses that far out rarely wins, so the jockey was informed to save as much ground as possible before moving out after they turned into the stretch. Plan worked to perfection, but I expect him to contest the early pace in this race.

EDIT: Both Dividsero and Spring Quality has been declared from the race. So I will now use 5) Century Dream(12-1) to complete my tri box. I mostly bypass this horse because I did not recognized the trainer. But he learned under the tutelage of Sheik Mohammad and Godolphin Stables before going out on his own in 2014. He won 26% of his races in his first year as a trainer and has now added a European Mile Classic win to his growing list of accomplishments. Century Dream's sire, Cape Cross is best known in the states as sire of Ouija Board, who raced in the G1 BC &M Turf S three straight years and won twice and finishing 2nd once against solid fillies and mares. His broodmare sire, Echo Of Light was a G2 winning miler in Europe but stretched his speed to 1 1/4 mile once in the G3 Prix Gontaut-Biron in France. But Century Dream has others in his dam family that will make the distance more reasonable.

Race 12: G3 Pucker Up S---- 3 YO Fillies-- 1 1/8 Miles Turf---- Purse $100,000.
My final WP pick will be 7)Madame Milan(20-1). Her dam, Ville La Rouge was the dam of ill fated Ky Derby winner Barbaro. She has ran only on grass and has given a good account of herself except for her only stakes appearance when she hit the gate to get off last but made a good move to be beaten 4 lengths. Delacour is a native Frenchman and he has worked her like most trainers from that country works their horses. They usually only try to keep their horses fresh by giving maintenance breezes and save their best for race day.
8)Deadline(20-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. I simply like her dam's bloodlines and judging by her last start in the Ta Wee S at one mile on grass, she looks like she is starting to mature. Kenneth McPeek, is an above average trainer who gets over zealous sometimes, but looks like he has been patience with this one. He gave her a work since her last start, and she indicated she is ready.
12)Smart Shot(15-1) will complete my tri box. She is another that took a few races to figure things out, but she has won her last 2 races. She has three works since her last race, all good and gives the impression there is another move forward coming. Her sire, Skipshot never raced on grass though he is bred for that surface. All his wins came on all weather tracks in California, including the G2 Swaps S. Her broodmare sire, Smarty Jones won the 2004 Ky Derby & Preakness S before suffering his only career loss in the Belmont S when 2nd. However, his sire, Elusive Quality, is a known sire of grass runners and another son, Raven's Pass beat Curlin on the AWT at Santa Anita after winning several G1 in Europe.
I will box a super in here and will use 10)Secret Message(12-1) to complete that box. All she needs is to learn how to break better and she will be tough to beat. Her trainer, Graham Motion, has elected to give Irad Ortiz, Jr another shot at getting her to settle in the gate. Her sire, Hat Trick is a son of Sunday Silence and his foals usually shows speed from the gate. Her broodmare sire, Gone West, and sire of her 2nd dam, Unbridled's Song, also showed good speed leaving the gate, so it is only a matter of time before she will also.
These are my picks. I think I will make some good money but I always think that. It mainly comes down to track conditions and who likes or dislikes the surfaces most.
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My 2018 Ky Derby Picks With Comments.

I will go over the list of every Ky Derby entry and give you the reason(s) I like or dislike their chances in the order I like most of them. You can agree and use them to form your ticket or you can go with tip sheets and experts and who knows, they may make you a few bucks. They will hit more often than me because they normally pick two of the favorites, but I normally take a big swing and when I connect, it will take anyone 10-15 straight years of correctly picking the derby winner and most exactas to even get close to what I will give you the opportunity to earn for a few bucks. And it is all free.
I like Enticed the best of these to win this year's derby. First, he is one of the better bred horses for the distance in this year's derby. But after taking a look at his races is what made him my choice, especially at the odds he is expected to go off. After breaking his maiden in his first start on a muddy track at Saratoga, he ran 3rd in the G1 Champagne S after chasing a hot pace while angling out six wide in the stretch at Belmont Park, a major prep race for the derby for many years and still very important. He then won the G2 Ky Jockey Club S in a roughly run key race to this year's derby. No less than eight horses have come out of that race to win again, but most key races produces 3-4 that return to win at max. Then in first start this year, he ran 4th to Audible in the Holy Bull while pinned near the rail but this race was designed to get him some much needed racing experience. If you were a front runner, the rail was the place to be at GP this year, but if you liked to run late, your chances increased by getting outside horses and waiting out the speed duels. He then won the G3 Gotham S and for the first time was on the best part of the track that helped him. But comments by the trackman read "wrapped up late" meaning he felt the horse had more to offered. Then in the Wood Memorial, he again got on the dead rail on Aqueduct outer dirt track and look like he offered no resistance to the winner. But you can rest assured his trainer was more interested in getting to the Ky Derby with a healthy horse than winning a race that has lacked prestige over the last dozen years. McLaughlin has won most top races in his career but he is missing the race he wants to win most(the derby in his hometown). He will be the only horse I will wager on to win and place in this year's derby.
Good Magic, I feel, presents the biggest challenge my top pick will face. He is a son of Ky Derby third Curlin and his broodmare sire Hard Spun ran 2nd in that same derby, beating Curlin by almost 6 lengths. They also represent the 1-2 finishers in that year's BC Classic. If he is not bred to like the 1 1/4 mile distance in this year's derby, then there is no one in here that is. After running second in his maiden debut, he ran 2nd in the G1 Champagne S sitting just off a fast early pace, taking the lead in the stretch and just failing to last while still a maiden. He then won the G1 BC Juvenile Dirt, using the same tactics, but this time he was long gone before anyone else had the chance to challenge him. Then in his first start this year in the G2 Fountain Of Youth, his trainer used that race as nothing more than a workout to increase his chances of being ready for the first Saturday in May. I have rarely seen so many handicappers abandon ship on a horse off a race his trainer and owner was not really interested in winning, especially if they want him at his best for the ultimate goal. Then in the G2 Blue Grass S, he again displayed the characteristics that netted him the biggest race up to that point, by sitting just off the pace and moving to the lead on a track listed as fast, but was not even close. These top two will be my main exacta bets, but I will probably box these two with a few more horses I think have a good chance, but only one at a time($12 each box).
Free Drop Billy will be one of the ones I will use in my exotics bets. He broke his maiden in his first start at CD in 5 furlongs, using a late kick and finishing in good time. He then ran 2nd in the G3 Sanford S & G1 Hopeful S, both at Saratoga and both times getting to the winner using his late kick. He then rode a perfect trip to victory in the G1 Breeders' Futurity. Next, in the G1 BC Juvenile Dirt, he broke last and sat on a dead rail at Del Mar and offered no challenge to run the worst race of his career. After a 3 month break, he ran 2nd in the G2 Holy Bull S, sitting closer to the early pace that he ever had and offering a brief bid but in need of that race to move forward. He then revered back to his old style in the G3 Gotham but was no match for my top pick that day, but he, too, was on the best part of the track. He then was placed third through DQ in the G2 Blue Grass after he was clearly impeded by another horse late that made his late kick less impressive. But in 8 starts, he has shown up in major races and gives a honest effort each time and you will get odds that makes it worthwhile to take a shot.
Bolt D'Oro will be another I will be considering using in a few exotic bets. He was the early favorite for the derby last year and if you like him then, it boggles my mind why you would abandon ship now. True he has lost his last three races, but none were really that bad. From getting a bad break in the G1 BC Juvenile Dirt but running on to finish a good third and both races this year, he ran against an only speed horse that controlled the pace. If you name is not Secretariat, that would have spelled defeat for most horses, but at least he tried to run them down. So what, Castellano decided to get off, but rest assure, it is not the first time a jockey thought he had a better chance elsewhere in America's biggest race. However, Espinoza is an upgrade simply because he has already won the derby 3 times and Castellano is looking for his first and he has ridden several with solid shots but were no factor.
Lone Sailor is another that can get at least a minor reward. The Ky derby third and fourth is usually filled by one of two types of horses; 1) horses that the betting public gives no chance of winning or 2) a horse that the public thinks highly of but his pedigree suggests otherwise. As far as Lone Sailor goes, his races suggests he may have a bigger shot than most believes. After breaking his maiden on a sloppy track at Saratoga in his 2nd start, he then ran 3rd in the G1 Breeders' Futurity to Free Drop Billy with more traffic problems, a narrow 2nd in the ungraded Street Sense S, 5th in the G2 Ky Jockey Club S after going widest of all to avoid trouble that effected over half of the field and became a key race. In his first start this year in the G3 Lecomte S, it was used as a race to point him to the derby as he contested the early pace before tiring after six furlongs and fading. Entered back in an O/C, he came from last and ran 2nd chasing a loose on the lead speed horse that slowed the pace to a crawl. Then in the G2 La Derby, he sat near the back, made a solid move to take the lead in mid stretch before a Pletcher horse fought back and nipped him at the wire. Still not a bad race in his third start of the year and it should set him up perfectly for his best race in the Ky Derby. While I do not believe he can win this race, I do feel he has as good shot as any to get a minor reward. And at his projected odds, the trifecta and super will pay big if he was to land there.
My Boy Jack will take a lot of money due to the Desormeaux brothers factor. While almost anything can happen in the derby, he seems a cut below some of these and will need a career best to even get a minor reward. While I will not be using him because I have to draw the line somewhere, I am aware he is one that can mess up my bets. Keith Desormeaux has trained 3 G1 winners in his career and wins with 15% of his starters. However, with two of his best G1 winners, Exaggerator & Texas Red, they both under achieved compared to what their bloodlines suggested they would do on the race track, IMO. Both were very good, but both should have been great.
Mendelssohn is a 1/2 brother to Into Mischief and Beholder. He is one I would like more if I thought he could get a clear lead and slow down the pace. But there are several in here that will probably make him work hard and he will probably be grasping for air as they turn into the stretch. For this reason, I can not, in good faith, recommend anyone to include him in their exotics. He is one of 15 that could win if everything goes his way, which is not likely.
Vino Rosso will sit in mid pack and try to close by them all in the stretch. But before you bet him, there are a few things you may want to consider. In the G2 Wood Memorial, he stayed outside on the best part of Aqueduct's main dirt track and herded my top pick(according to footnotes from the trackman) to the inside part of the track, the worst place to be. I have known for years that your horse needed the rail on Aqueduct's inner dirt track(used during winter months only) and have waited every year for them to open the outer track, where I cash monster pay offs betting on late runners in the middle of their main outer dirt. I did not realized they ran on the outer track all winter until earlier this week. Second, it seems Pletcher has always used Johnny V to draw attention away from his top contender. Or maybe Johnny V is a terrible judge at figuring which Pletcher horse is live. Either way, it makes it impossible for me to consider this horse, since his races are average at best. Another I am willing to take a stance against.
Solomini is Baffert's best shot at winning another derby this year, IMO, as I have mentioned on several occasions. For starters, he has ran a decent race in every start. Since breaking his maiden in his first start, he has shown up in the biggest and most competitive preps, barring no one. In the FrontRunner, he ran second to early Ky Derby favorite Bolt D'Oro. Then he ran second to expected 2nd favorite, Good Magic, in the BC Juvenile. Then he won the G1 CashCall Futurity(formerly Hollywood Juvenile) but was DQ to third and ran the fastest time at 1 1/16 mile recorded by a 2 YO in California in a G1 race last year that I found. In his first start after a three month break, he got a horrible trip in the G2 Rebel S but still managed to finish second to highly regarded Magnum Moon. Then he run 3rd in the G1 Arkansas Derby behind Magnum Moon's and Quip's extremely slow pace for a G1 race and got exactly the type of race he needed to move forward. A couple of more interesting facts concerning Solomini is his broodmare sire Storm Cat is in the pedigree of the last 3 Ky Derby winners. Yes, he was broodmare sire of Bodemeister, who was sire of 2017 Ky Derby winner Always Dreaming and he was the broodmare sire line of both Nyquist, the 2016 Ky Derby winner and 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Storm Cat was also sire of 2006 Ky Derby 2nd Blue Grass Cat and 1999 Ky Derby 3rd Cat Thief and grandsire of 1999 Ky Derby 2nd Menifee. 2) Baffert has always tried to divert attention away from the horse he thinks is going to run their best race in the Ky Derby. In 2015, he repeatedly marveled about Dortmund, but focused on Pharoah. In 2002, he scratched 2 front runners the week of the derby, making War Emblem the only true speed in the race. In 2001, his build up was all about Point Given but Congaree was the one that almost got there. And in 1998, he built Indian Charlie up, but his trainee Real Quiet came within a nose of sweeping the TC. So if you still don't believe Solomini is live, there is nothing I can say that will change your mind. A must include on my saver bets.
Magnum Moon is one I will not include in any of my bets. Bloodlines wise, he is right on the edge on being able to handle 1 1/4 miles in G1 company. However, to me, that means if he has a perfect trip and can slow the pace down enough, he will be tough. Not likely though, IMO. His last race was a perfect example of that, He slowed the pace to a crawl and still was trying to bear out in the stretch which signals one of two things; he was getting tired or he was still green. Either one is not the way you want your horse to go into the derby. Pass.
Audible is another I will bet against. In both his starts as a 3 YO, he was kept out off the rail and at GP late running horses that stay away from the rail won almost every time when a speed duel developed. If a late runner tried to get near the rail before making his run, he was usually not a factor in the outcome. Audible got perfect set ups in both his starts and his bloodlines says he will not want to go this far. Pass.
Justify will be near the lead but I really do not believe he can out break several of these, much less dictate the pace to give a good opportunity to last. His bloodlines suggests he can get near the 1 1/4 under idea circumstances, but definitely do not see that in this race. And the fact he has only 3 lifetime races only magnifies his inexperience and probability he will face trouble he has yet to encountered. Pass.
Flameaway is a name that has been thrown out as a likely contender. But he, like several others, does his best running near the lead and that alone will be the major factor why I will take a stance against. His race in the Blue Grass S is his only start that is fast enough to compete in this race and since he was near the lead throughout, the track condition helped his cause. He also has nowhere near the bloodlines I look for year after year. Not for me. Pass.
Bravazo is a 3/4 brother to 2013 Ky Derby participant, Oxbow. Oxbow showed promise early in his 3 YO, like Bravazo, but got a couple of less than inspiring rides in both the Ark Derby & Ky Derby. Then when he got a ride worth noting, he won the Preakness and ran 2nd in the Belmont. Bravazo, though, reminds me of Lukas other participant in that same derby, Will Take Charge. He has ran several good races but has yet to put it all together but when he does, you will hear his name pop up in big races. And Lukas is now the most patient and determined trainer to get a horse to realize his potential. However, I will have to pass on this horse as I like others better.
Noble Indy was last seen winning the La Derby. But he done it in a way that is rare for cheap stock to do it and most will not or can not repeat it. He opened a clear lead, then took a breather until late and was able to nipped the late runners at the wire. If he tries that in the Ky Derby, he will be swallowed by at least a half dozen horses. It is one thing to do it against one or two horses but a whole different story to do it against half the field. Actually never seen that happen before. Pass.
Promises Fulfilled will be sent from the gate to cause havoc on the other early speed to set the race up for his stablemate. Several trainers have used this tactic in the past but it rarely works. There is nothing good about running a horse in a race where he does not belong and it can lead to the horse becoming discouraged and never willing to try again. And Promises Fulfilled has given no indication he wants to go 1 1/8 mile, much less 1 1/4 miles. Pass.
Hofburg is, IMO, being asked to do more than I feel should be asked of any horse with such little experience. While he has the bloodlines to run against the best at this distance, it could be the worst decision this barn and owner has ever made. They will look like a genius if they succeed but the special interest groups will be all over them if the horse breaks down or pulls up in distress. But having deep pockets will give you opportunities only others can dream about. But I can not bet this horse against this caliber of a field off his race against Audible, a horse I feel has little to no chance of winning. Pass.
Firenze Fire started his career with a lot of promise. But since he has turned three, he is the one horse that looks like he regressed or others caught up with and passed. That said, he still is not a horse that I can say has no chance because the fact remains he still has not ran a bad race. In his worst outing, he worked much too fast(100 breezing), then boarded a plane and flew from NY to Southern California to race in the G1 BC Juvenile, all in a span of 6 days. Otherwise, he should have ran much worst than his 7th place finish suggested, after making a mild move before flattening out. Most top older horse could not have pulled off what he was asked as a 2 YO to do. Also, probably the main reason for his three year form more than other factors. Not impossible but I like others better at this point.
Combatant is the Scat Daddy son that to me looks like he is best equipped to handled the 1 1/4 mile distance. His race in the G1 Arkansas Derby was not as bad as it looked considering he tracked a slow pace while last early and finished 4th, just missing second. He is one that will not be considered by most, but he may just be more live than others believe. I mentioned the derby 3rd & 4th tends to be runners that are overlooked and he fits that assessment to a T. And his trainer is notorious for having his horses fit when others tends to think they are overmatched. Minor reward very possible and I might be willing to include him underneath, especially if his odds goes up too much.
Instilled Regard looked like he would be one to considered earlier this year. But his SA Derby run was less than inspiring and I realize that was his 2nd race in a row where he had no chance to produce his best run. However, I feel he did not get enough out of each race to improve enough to make him a contender against these. He also has a pedigree that is heavily tilted towards a miler type and that also makes him suspect. If I had only a bunch of pace type horses to choose from, then I would be more likely to use him underneath. But there are several late runners that has a better finishing kick than he has displayed. Pass.
My 2018 Ky Derby bets will be as followed: WP Enticed. Ex Box Enticed(keyed top & underneath) with Bolt D'Oro, Good Magic, Free Drop Billy, Solomini, and Lone Sailor. Tri Box Enticed, Good Magic, Solomini, Free Drop Billy--- Tri Key Enticed with Good Magic, FDB, Bolt, Lone Sailor, Solomini, & Combatant in 2nd & 3rd. Super Key Enticed And Good Magic in first & second with FDB, Bolt, Solomini, Combatant & Lone Sailor in third & fourth. These are the bets I am sure of thus far. I may or may not add a couple of more bets but they will only include the ones I have already mentioned, if I do. If I stick to these bets along with my future bets, I will have more than $600 in tickets, including more than $200 to win on Enticed, roughly half of it locked in at 69-1 and roughly $100 that is no longer in play. Otherwise, I am betting what I believe in and will simply move on to the next time if I am wrong.
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Matt Bernier Talks Preakness Stakes, Betting Tips, Odds & More  Betting With The Bag Preakness Stakes Betting Predictions, Odds & Race Breakdown  Jimmy The Bag's Betting Guide Preakness Stakes Odds, Analysis, Pace Projection & Wagers on HorseCenter Preakness Stakes 2019: Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions 2019 PREAKNESS GUIDE  Odds, Picks & Advice  SportsLine

Read all of our betting coverage for the 2019 Preakness Stakes with odds, analysis, weather, picks and more for Saturday's race at Pimlico in Baltimore, Maryland. The Preakness 2019 Odds: Expert picks, favorites, draw, betting info . The Preakness 2019 Odds: Expert picks, favorites, draw, betting info . By Associated Press May 17, 2019 3:42 PM. NBC Sports is home to the 144th Preakness Stakes. Live television coverage of the race, The 2019 Preakness Stakes begins on Saturday, May 17 at 6:48 p.m. ET at Pimlico Race Track in Baltimore, Maryland. Sean Zerillo power ranks the horses based on their betting value, including contenders, longshots and fades. The Preakness post-position draw is Wednesday, May 15, and Preakness oddsmaker Keith Fuestle will set the odds immediately after the draw. The field is limited to a maximum of 14 starters, but the only years the Preakness starting gate was filled to capacity were 2011, 2005, and 1992. Preakness Stakes odds and betting strategy. The gambling strategy for the Preakness Stakes has some interesting challenges. Firstly, the makeup of the field isn’t truly known until after the running of the Kentucky Derby. And the running of that race, it will have huge implications on the betting odds for the Preakness.

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Matt Bernier Talks Preakness Stakes, Betting Tips, Odds & More Betting With The Bag

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