Betting 101: How to bet on the NHL for beginners
- Betting 101: How to bet on the NHL for beginners
- Betting 101: What is a moneyline bet in sports betting?
- NHL Betting Online: How Does Hockey Betting Work & How to
- Betting Glossary: Explanations, definitions of basic
- Betting - Glossary of common betting terms - ESPN.com
The difference between the Kevin Labanc and Marcus Pettersson contracts this past summer.
submitted by Chigurrh to hockey [link] [comments]
Both players were in similar situations this summer. They were RFAs on teams without the cap space to give them long-term deals. Both ended up taking one-year bargain contracts. Lebanc got $1 million. Pettersson got $874,125
When these deals were signed it was widely believed that the players had taken these deals with the belief that they would be getting their big pay day the following season, with the following contracts being available to sign on January 1st.
However, there was a key difference in the negotiations that is more apparent now. Labanc
The language being used by Labanc and his agent indicated that this was a deal he took because he believed his value would be much higher the next summer. Labanc
“It was, I think, just the best decision for myself and for the team” Sharks GM Doug Wilson
“I’m just looking forward to the enhanced role and the upcoming season, and I believe my best hockey is ahead of me.”
“I definitely see myself taking a bigger role,” he said. “There’s a lot of opportunity up there, and I think last year was a stepping stone for me to kind of prove myself that I can handle that top-six role. I’m looking forward to next season and I’m looking forward to be one of the top players on the team.”
“The combination of betting on himself with the situation he’ll be in next year, and the belief he has in himself, that’s exciting to us,” said Sharks general manager Doug Wilson. “We have no problem taking care of our own guys as they grow and evolve.” Labanc's agent
“It’s an important contract for us, but also a great opportunity for a guy whose game is just going to grow”
“You’re going to get people that look at this and be like, what the hell? But, hey, if he signs a big ticket next, like five or six years, everyone’s going to look at it like, OK, well, you made all your money back.”
This seems to indicate that the plan was to raise Labanc's value this year before negotiating a larger deal following a season where Labanc has even better numbers. Obviously this hasn't worked out particularly well for him. While his underlying numbers aren't bad, Labanc's production has dropped on a struggling Sharks team. He is on pace for 40 points this season. There has been no recent news on a potential extension. This is likely something that gets resolved in the summer. Pettersson
It appears that the Pettersson negations this summer were handled in a completely different way. While Labanc and his agent viewed the short deal as an opportunity to raise his value, Pettersson’s agent sounded less excited: Pettersson’s agent
“Due to cap space, we didn’t have much of a choice. We understand the situation and sometimes you just have to accept the situation for what it is.”
Unlike Labanc, Pettersson wasn’t trying to bet on himself. The Penguins and Pettersson were working on a way to get him under the cap for this season while also keeping him around beyond that.
Elliotte Friedman reported in October
that Pettersson's next deal was all but done and would be signed in January.
In Pettersson's case, this seemed to have worked out well. He moved up to the second pairing in his second year with the Penguins with solid results. He got his contract on January 28th. $20,125,875 over 5 seasons for an AAV of $4,025,175. That's an odd number. Funny enough, if you add the two contracts together the Penguins ended up giving Pettersson exactly $21 million over 6 years for an average of $3.5 million per year.
It appears that in lieu of a $3.5 million x6 extension, the two parties basically agreed to those terms over the summer and split the money into two contracts.
This lines up with what both Rutherford and Pettersson said today.
“Well, we had an agreement with Marcus and his agent (Peter Wallen) in training camp,” general manager Jim Rutherford said by phone. “It didn’t work out because we didn’t have the cap space. At that time, Marcus was good enough to work with us and sign his one-year agreement, and we said at the earliest time that we can extend this agreement, we will. And that was Jan. 1, and that’s when we started talking to him and got it done.”
"I trust the organization and I wanted to do something that was good for the team,” Pettersson said. “I wanted to play as well. Me and my agent put a lot of trust (in the team) and rightfully so. This is an organization that is trustworthy and everything like that. We didn’t want to be in the situation that we were in, but it was a unique situation. It was big trust there." TLDR:
While these appeared to be similar situations in the summer, it looks like the key difference is that Pettersson and the Penguins had agreed to the future contract ahead of time while Labanc took a gamble on his future value without this guarantee.
What the Penguins did with Pettersson seems like a viable strategy for a team operating with little cap room but with a team and player that seem to have an agreed upon value for a long-term deal. On the other hand, the Labanc contract appears to be a classic case where a player bet on himself. Sometimes it works well for the player. Sometimes it backfires. I will be interested to see if this impacts how certain RFA deals are handled moving forward.
Fading the team that plays in Vegas NHL
So I found something rather interesting that actually someone else on here mentioned. And that is FADING the NHL team that goes to Vegas on their next game, it could be the next day or 5 days later. submitted by Nice-Location to sportsbook [link] [comments]
Fading that team after they go to Vegas and taking the other team on the Puck Line -1.5:
October 2nd: San Jose at Vegas October 4th: Vegas at San Jose, Vegas wins, 5-1 (Win)
October 8th: Boston at Vegas October 10th: Boston at Colorado, Colorado wins, 2-4 (Win)
October 12th: Calgary at Vegas October 13th: Calgary at San Jose, San Jose wins, 1-3 (Win)
October 15th: Nashville at Vegas October 17th: Nashville at Arizona, Arizona wins, 2-5. (Win)
October 17th: Ottawa at Vegas October 19th: Ottawa at Arizona, Arizona wins, 2-5 (Win)
October 25th: Colorado at Vegas October 26th: Anaheim at Colorado, Anaheim wins, 5-2 (Win)
October 27th: Anaheim at Vegas October 29th: Winnipeg at Anaheim, Anaheim wins (Loss for us)
October 31st: Montreal at Vegas November 2nd: Montreal at Dallas, Dallas wins, 1-4 (Win)
November 2nd: Winnipeg at Vegas November 5th: New Jersey at Winnipeg, New Jersey wins, 2-1 (Loss for us)
November 13th: Chicago at Vegas November 16th: Chicago at Nashville, Chicago wins (Loss for us)
November 17th: Calgary at Vegas November 19th: Colorado at Calgary, Colorado wins, 3-2. (Loss for us)
November 19th: Toronto at Vegas November 21st: Toronto at Arizona, Toronto wins (Loss for us)
November 21st: San Jose at Vegas November 23rd: New York Islanders at San Jose, San Jose wins (Loss for us)
November 23rd: Edmonton at Vegas November 24th: Edmonton at Arizona, Edmonton wins (Loss for us)
November 29th: Arizona at Vegas November 30th: San Jose at Arizona, San Jose wins, 4-2 (Win)
So as you can see the first 2 months this went: 8-7 record wise.
BUT, if you dig deeper and realize that your getting between +200 and +400 on each bet, your actually up quite a bit despite only going 8-7.
Anywho, just thought this was a very interesting trend. And definitely one that will make money.
Canucks labeled "losers" at the draft for years: or opinions that did not age well
I've kept a few links to reports on our drafting because I find them hilarious. So much post-draft Canucks hate by NHL writers. The results of our prospects speak for themselves. submitted by Count3D to canucks [link] [comments]
"The Hunter Shinkaruk pick is the biggest steal of the first round. A later pick of Jordan Subban was also a major heist. Cole Cassels is a nice two way centre out of Oshawa. Getting these three was a good day for Vancouver. However we don’t like their big trade. Yes, Bo Horvat is a worthy pick, and 16 goals in 21 playoff games show his potential, he might be the best player Vancouver picked. I just don’t think they got enough for Cory Schneider, or that trading Schneider was even the right choice for the team. The mishandling of the goaltending situation has left major question marks, especially with Roberto Luongo left behind and questioning his commitment to the team."
- the wise Ben Kerr
"The Vancouver Canucks were the big mover and shaker at the draft, making four separate deals this weekend. Several of those moves were intelligent - trading Jason Garrison for, in effect, Linden Vey is a nice maneuver - but it's not enough to wash out the bad taste left over from the lopsided Kesler trade. New Canucks general manager Jim Benning had his hands tied, but still had to settle for an anemic return on a star player; recouping only a late first round pick, a 26-year-old depth forward (Nick Bonino), and a bad contract (Luca Sbisa). That the Canucks subsequently used that late first round pick on an underwhelming offensive talent in Jared McCann, doesn't help matters. One might credibly argue that Vancouver's moves were about clearing the decks (and cap-space) and that they shouldn't be judged too harshly before the other shoe drops. That's probably fair to an extent, but the fact remains: Vancouver netted poor value in a trade involving a star player with a division rival. It's tough to come back from that."
- the wise Thomas Drance
"The Canucks didn't walk away from the draft in the loser category because of the Ryan Kesler trade, but on the whole, they did quite a poor job with their three draft-day deals. By acquiring Nick Bonino and Luca Sbisa, the Canucks landed two guys who can play right away. Anything can happen with No. 24 pick Jared McCann, but there's no denying the team did the best it could dealing a player who wanted to be traded. But trading Jason Garrison to the Tampa Bay Lightning for a second-round pick, the rights to prospect Jeff Costello and a seventh-round pick is the equivalent of paying for a pack of gum with a $100 bill and saying, "Keep the change." Garrison is a top-four defender with offensive ability. He had seven goals (four on the power play) and 33 points in 81 games last season. Sure, his contract is large (four years at $4.6 million per season remaining), but it's not as though he was being overpaid. The Canucks were clearly looking to save money, but this is the deal a team makes to lose a bad contract, not one as reasonable as Garrison's deal. Then they gave a third-round pick to the New York Rangers for Derek Dorsett, a professional face-puncher who put those duties aside to be a useful fourth-line winger this season. His raw Corsi of 50.5 percent last season was the best of his career, but it's unlikely he matches that next season. The Canucks saved a ton of money without switching to Geico, so perhaps we can consider them winners once the free-agency flurry concludes."
- the wise Dave Lozo
"With the improvements that the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers are making, the Vancouver Canucks needed to keep pace, and General Manager Jim Benning had a relatively weak draft. In addition, the team traded away Eddie Lack, failed to land assets this year for players who may have been available, and then passed on critically important picks. Brock Boeser is an intriguing prospect thanks to his ability to score, but has some question marks beyond that, and the rest of their draft seemed lackluster. Dmitry Zhukenov is an unknown boom-or-bust prospect, and Vancouver fans do seem to be generally pleased with Carl Neill, who does have some room for improvement. The Canucks opted for Adam Gaudette, who has a limited ceiling, and Lukas Jasek, who hasn’t been able to put everything together yet. Overall, with prospects like Travis Konecny, Oliver Kylington, and Nikita Korostelev available with their picks, it was disappointing that the team opted for safer picks rather than home-runs. The Canucks face a situation where the Sedin twins and other talents are aging, except the big problem is the team doesn’t appear to have replacements ready to fill their spots in-house. It’s a problem that stems from weak drafts spent on questionable talents, this one included."
- the wise David Hahn
"The Vancouver Canucks had the chance to take Portland Winterhawks center Cody Glass with the fifth pick. That was clearly what the pundits expected would happen when the Canucks were on the clock after Colorado took defender Cale Makar at No. 4. But the Canucks went with Swedish forward Elias Pettersson instead, and the Vegas Golden Knights wasted little time in nabbing Glass with the sixth selection. Pettersson was projected to go high in the draft, but not this high. It's tough to project NHL prospects, but Glass should be a better player than Pettersson. Maybe that will be proved otherwise, but Pettersson seems to be a ways from becoming a legitimate NHL player. That might be true with Glass too, but the betting here is it won't be as long. BOTTOM LINE: The Canucks just don't make much of a buzz anymore. It's hard to believe this is the same franchise that was one win away from a Stanley Cup as recently as 2011."
- the wise Adrian Dater
" So what else is new? General manager Jim Benning once again had another poor draft, selecting Swedish playmaking center Elias Petterssen as Vancouver’s No. 5 pick. What made that selection so disappointing for Canucks fans was that Cody Glass and Gabriel Vilardi were still available during that time. We’ve already talked about Glass earlier, so let’s focus our attention on Vilardi. He was considered the next-best prospect in this year’s draft after Hischier and Patrick. The 17-year-old Canadian racked up 99 points (46 goals, 53 assists) in 111 games during his two seasons in the OHL. Still, the Canucks let that kind of talent slip by. Vancouver’s loss is definitely LA’s gain."
- the wise Joel
Breadispain's NHL DFS Primer 2019-20
submitted by breadispain to dfsports [link] [comments]
The first (preseason) DFS content is available tomorrow on Draftkings! It's time to get back into the swing of things. Introduction
Many people commented or PMed me last season saying that my posts helped them win more money, more frequently. I know I personally missed out on some big paydays by ignoring my own advice. (Sigh.) I’ve been playing DFS hockey since 2014 and have become gradually more invested in it over the past few seasons. I started playing $1 single entry tournaments and I’ve been hooked since my first entry placed 47/3448. You’ll generally find me in single entry tournaments on Draftkings and whichever site has the better tournament payout on the larger Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday slates.
I have the same username on Draftkings
if you’re looking for me elsewhere. Disclaimer
I would recommend that you only play DFS as a form of entertainment. Hockey is a volatile sport where anything can happen any given night: the underdog could win, your starting goaltender could be injured, etc. While under no circumstances should you hold me liable should you lose, please take me into consideration if you do happen to come upon a big payday as a result of my advice ;)
I’d advise restraint during the preseason and month of October while lines and systems are settling and the sample size is small. The whole point of using data to build your lineups is to reduce randomness, so your bankroll should be saved for when the league is more predictable. However, if you’re a degenerate like me, you likely have enough data about your personal habits to know that is unlikely. Slates
The NHL schedule dictates larger slates on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with fewer games on days between. Larger slates tend to come with higher prize pools funded by more entries. Since a larger slate means more players are on the ice, that generally decreases specific player ownership. Though that increases your chance of your players having lower ownership if they go off, it also makes it more difficult to pick players that score more than the rest of the field, since there’s a higher probability more goals are scored. (And that’s what makes it fun!)
While there are also all day, afternoon, evening and late night slates, as well as Showdown and whatever else have been introduced lately, the payout for these contests tends to be less overall for the same entry fees, while the difficulty of winning them is comparable, so I tend to avoid them with few exceptions. Contest Type
Whether you’re playing cash games (50/50, multipliers, head-to-head), satellites, or GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments will greatly affect your strategy. In GPP’s you’re looking for highest upside
to get the most overall points possible to win the tournament. In cash, you’re looking for the highest floor
to ensure you’re above the fold. In general, play cash games for security and GPP’s for the thrill.
I’m sure there are a lot of pros that play cash games regularly because you can easily double your wager any given night, which at minimum helps pad your bankroll to cover any GPP losses. I personally don’t like the upside when weighing risk/reward and therefore prefer to play GPP’s almost exclusively. However, cash strategies can also translate to smaller tournaments because you don’t need as much variance to set yourself apart from other lineups. Single-Entry vs Multi-Entry
Daily fantasy hockey is always pitching itself as a game of skill while trying to distance itself from gambling for legal reasons. I contend that single entry tournaments are the truest test of skill here because each entry holds the same weight. These are my preferred contests by far, though there are rarely more than two any given night with a payout worth the ticket price.
While you technically have a better chance of placing first by maxing your entries in GPP’s every night, it’s impractical for most players, especially the novice. You can see in the Draftkings Results Database
that even seasoned veterans rarely employ this strategy as well. For what it’s worth, some of my biggest paydays have also been ones where I made the fewest amount of entries. Your mileage may vary. Rake
Rake is simply the house cut taken by whichever site you’re gambling on. Along with entry fees it has increased in recent years and stabilized around 9-13% depending on the contest. If all things are considered equal, target contests with a lower rake, as more prizes are being paid out to the contestants. That also means GPP’s and satellites that are not filling up before the deadline can offer you a slight advantage. Bankroll Management You
should care about how much money you’re gambling because no one else is going to. Bankroll management doesn’t factor much into my decision making simply due to the scale I operate at, so I’ll only offer this advice: winnings are not winnings until you withdraw them, and only if you haven’t deposited more than that originally. It boggles my mind when people praise themselves for winning a grand after dumping two the month before. Set an amount you’re comfortable losing and don’t deposit more than that when it’s gone. There are free bankroll trackers available online if you want an overview of how you’re doing, such as Daily Fantasy Nerd
, as well as restrictions on each site if needed. Point Systems
This whole post was based around the 2018-19 point system for both Fanduel and Draftkings. However, it was Recently Announced
that adjustments would be made to the Draftkings point system this coming season. Here’s what you need to know:
Prior to this year, there used to be relative parity between the Fanduel and Draftkings scoring systems. Aside a few discrepancies, like Fanduel awarding minor powerplay point bonuses, Draftkings accounting for goaltender points and hat trick bonuses, and a slight variation between block and shot values, Fanduel scores were basically 4x Draftking ones and the only significant differences were salary discrepancies and lineup construction.
No longer. Not only have the Draftkings points been bumped up overall but their relative values have changed. A goaltender win is now worth less relative to a goal. While it used to take 15 saves to make up a goal, it will now take about 12. There will also be two points awarded for overtime losses.
There are other minor changes to the basic scoring system, like assists and shots on goal are worth slightly less relative to a goal, but the real change will be in the new bonus system. Here you will see an additional three points awarded for hat tricks, 35+ saves, 5+ shots, 3+ blocks and 3+ point games. That 3 point modifier also stacks with the hat trick bonus, which is, frankly, ridiculous. This will significantly change the worth of playmakers, with two assists (10 points) now being worth less than a player with five shots on goal (10.5 points) without hitting twine.
Draftkings claims this makes the game “more exciting” but right now it just seems like it’ll be more random. I fail to see how anyone that regularly plays DFS with any volume benefits from this change, outside of possibly drawing in more inexperienced entries and increasing the overall player and prize pool. The NHL players gaining these bonuses are, for the most part, already the top performers in those categories. Additional incentives are hardly necessary to have Burns or Ovechkin any given night. For others, certain punt plays could see a significant boost, though it makes little sense to me why two blocked shots would be worth 2.6 points but a third bumps that up to 6.9.
Regardless, I still see linestacking being advantageous with these changes. Linestacking
Outside of choosing a winning goaltender, using players on the same line is the most basic DFS advice you can give a beginner. Since there are so few goals scored in a hockey game and most of those goals correlate with an assist, you typically want to pick players with good linemates. The odds of stacking two corresponding lines and getting multi-point games that win you money is far greater than selecting six players who have standout individual performances on any given night.
Depending on whether you play on Fanduel or Draftkings will determine what kind of strategies are available to you, as there are tighter salary constraints on Draftkings but looser restrictions. For example, on Fanduel you’re capped at 4 players from each team. On Draftkings, you only need 3 different teams represented, so you can technically play the entire top six from one team instead. Despite that, you cannot do the 4-4-1 stack available on Fanduel, where you pick two lines with their corresponding defensemen and a goaltender. Instead, you have to opt for a 4-3-1 stack, either using the utility position for a punt play (typically not ideal) or alternating one of the defensemen from a different team (preferable).
I don’t like to break up line stacks because I’ve been playing long enough to see it come back to haunt me, but there’s always an argument for dropping an underperforming third wheel or due to salary constraints. Powerplay Correlation
Roughly 20% of NHL goals are scored with the man advantage. Though not strictly necessary, players who have top powerplay minutes are more likely to score goals. If an entire line has full powerplay correlation, even better. There are few teams worth targeting for a powerplay stack where the players are not also linemates. However, last season the Lightning, Panthers, Sharks, Pens, Flames, Leafs and Caps all had great powerplay success with players combined from two or more lines. This can make a decent contrarian play against a weak penalty kill team or simply to deviate from the standard chalk on a smaller slate. Percentage of Ownership
Generally speaking, whichever team(s) has the highest Vegas odds to win, and especially a high oveunder, will also be the favored teams, or chalk
, for DFS. Since only 20% of GPP entries will profit and the chalk lines are likely to garner 20%+ ownership, if that line goes off it could break the slate
(you’ll need that line to win).
Just because a team is a favorite to win does not mean they’re your safest option. Primarily because there are
no safe options, it’s also crucial to maximize your success by differentiating your lineups from others. Use Vegas odds and “expert” predictions as a guideline for what you think other
people will be targeting, and keep this in mind when building your own lineups. Looking for the lines that could produce but be underlooked (and therefore under-owned) is necessary for a big payday.
The larger the slate, the more likely you can profit from chalk. Likewise, the smaller the slate, the higher upside for contrarian options. On a 12 game slate there are likely to be several favorites, decreasing the overall ownership percentage of any given line. On a three or four game slate, more people are likely to gravitate to one or two lines. Whether you can actually afford
to stack these lines together is another matter entirely. Sometimes the chalk lines are so prohibitively expensive that you have to make great sacrifices elsewhere in your lineup. Salary Constraints
I don’t fully understand how either Fanduel and Draftkings come up with their player salaries because they often feel arbitrary. Kase was priced at floor on Fanduel for weeks, despite putting up solid production on the first line for the Ducks. There were thousands of dollars difference in Chabot’s salary when he was on a tear as well. Some players, like Shattenkirk, appeared to have inflated salaries solely due to name recognition. Occasionally there are straight up errors, like Keith Yandle was priced at floor by mistake for almost a week on Draftkings last January. Suffice to say that it’s worth analyzing the value of each player on a line when stacking, as well as exploring individual salary trends, as players are often propped up by things that don’t translate to DFS production.
It’s rare that you’ll pick two lines that fit so comfortably you can afford top defensemen and a goaltender as well. If you have the salary left over to flesh out your lineup with Burns, Letang and Vasilevskiy, it’s hard to make an argument not to. More likely you’re going to be looking for pivots, a line that has a value player that brings down the total cost, or ultimately sacrificing somewhere in your lineup.
A solid pivot for me was likely an outlier getting top powerplay time (ex. Pirri), an individual performer on a depth line (Ex. Donato; Perreault), an unrecognized rookie (ex. Svechnikov, Chabot), someone stepping in for an injury in a lineup, or a cheap defenseman with offensive upside (ex. Ekholm).
It’s also not uncommon for a star to have less talented linemates. Sometimes that artificially inflates the cost of those linemates, but sometimes it makes the line a decent budget option. You’ll likely find these players alongside McDavid, Matthews, Crosby or Stamkos, for example, when their lines are not loaded with their corresponding Kucherovs or Draisaitls.
Some lines are so prohibitively expensive they’re virtually unstackable at all, though these lines are also typically matchup proof. Because of the sacrifice required, these lines are often worth targeting on a larger slate or against tougher opposition where they’ll fetch lower ownership but still have the potential for a hat trick or more. Refer to COL1, BOS1, TBL2, etc. Contrarian Play
Contrarian here simply means rejecting the consensus favorite, but it’s often confused with simply picking a line from a bad team to go against the grain. Note there’s rarely a good argument to pick a contrarian goaltender, outside of high upside for their salary. Keep in mind that Vegas odds, really even the best teams in the NHL, are roughly 60-65% likely to accurate project as a winner, and that winning alone is not always enough to make a goaltender valuable because they might not see a lot of shots.
So when should
you play contrarian? One of my favorite contrarian options on Fanduel specifically is when a line’s players have the “wrong” position. This happens when a player was previously playing out of position, and Fanduel is notorious for being slow to respond to these changes. Since it’s more difficult to stack a CCW or WWW line, these picks are naturally contrarian because they’re harder to fit into a lineup.
Another option might be targeting secondary scoring on depth lines. Not only is this an option for affordability that’s easier to stack, but it’s a decent pivot off the chalk for a team that’s a favorite to win. It’s worth noting that a team playing on home ice has the advantage of last change and therefore can choose their deployment. If you’re targeting against a team with a solid shutdown line on home ice, a secondary scoring line might end up getting better deployment and production. Likewise, if you know a line will be forced to play a shutdown role, you might want to consider alternatives. This is called line matching
and may differ on a nightly basis.
One option that’s often overlooked is a game stack. That is, picking one line from either teams in one game. When two teams are porous defensively or have a historic rivalry, chances are if a goal is scored early in the first period the ice could rapidly open up and the game will become a shooting gallery.
Finally, though this option is restricted only to Draftkings, you can stack two lines from the same team with each other. This could be the entire top six or a full five man powerplay stack. I would reserve this option only for high powered offenses against the weakest of opposition though. Defensemen
I often consider defensemen an extension of linestacking, but in reality that’s not always feasible. Though there are technically points awarded for blocked shots, even the top shot blockers aren’t very DFS relevant on shot blocking alone, unless they are positioned against a high shot volume team and come at a reasonable price tag. It is worth considering a high floor from reliable shooters and/or blockers when looking for value if you’re stacking two expensive lines, especially in cash games. While it’s not uncommon to see rosters where people have two depth defenders squeezed into their lineup due to salary constraints, know that you’ll typically need at least another goal from your forwards to compensate for the backend unless they happen to get a lucky bounce.
There are only around forty defensemen capable of regularly generating at a half point per game every season. With so few of these players available any given night, their salaries are typically higher than a forward with a similar point pace. The most prolific point producers are often unattainable for this reason. If an inexpensive defenseman finds his way onto the first powerplay unit, you can guarantee he will see high ownership. It’s almost always recommended to upgrade your defensemen if your salary allows. Goaltenders
More important than any other statistic is whether or not your goalie is starting, so make sure to confirm that before puck drop. Daily Faceoff
is the defacto place to verify the starting goaltender for each team. It’s not infallible, but it’s the best resource available without refreshing Twitter constantly for updates.
While it’s rare this will haunt you, it’s important to note that the win is only attributed to the goalie that’s on the ice when the deciding goal is scored, and that’s not necessarily who’s in the net at the end of the game. This is especially pertinent if you’re considering playing preseason games, where there’s often split duty between two prospects.
Even the worst goaltender is going to take up a sizeable chunk of your salary cap. However, unless they’re pulled from the game, even a losing goalie at least generally has some
positive impact on your overall score. On the flipside, a winning goaltender can easily be your MVP every night. That’s a lot of pressure on picking the right player in this position, and therefore it’s often the hardest.
Without consideration for quality of opponent, even the best goaltender on the first seeded team has generally won less than 70% of their games that season. Picking a winning team is already a gamble, let alone the challenge of picking a winner that also faces a lot of shots without giving up goals. Because of this, I don’t really have a strong inclination to any particular strategy here. Some nights I’ll single out a small handful of goalies I think will perform well and either correlate them with my stacks or disperse them based on their salaries. If I’m only targeting a few lines that night, maybe I’ll run the same stacks with several goaltenders and hope to see them all dispersed in the top fifty. Other times I’ll ride the same goaltender for every lineup in a boom or bust scenario. In any case, I would seriously caution against being contrarian here without knowing there’s high upside (the goaltender is cheapest on the slate and at least has a chance of winning, say). Recent/Historical Performance
I’m not going to lie, I use DailyFantasyNerd
to compare shooting and scoring trends amongst players, and I’m always dialled in to the hot hands as much as anyone. However, I feel like people might put too much weight on recent performance and too little on historical data and sustainability.
There’s no question that sometimes players just go on hot or cold streaks, and betting on a player who’s in a slump to miraculously break it that night is equal parts realistic and gambler’s fallacy, as much as banking on the hot hand continuing his run would be. If you’re willing to do further digging, it’s worth taking into account whether a player is seeing a change in deployment or ice time. Consider whether they’re shooting more or less and what percentage of those shots are converting. Also note the quality of competition in the previous games. If you’re not doing any additional research whatsoever, just know these stats are usually shown as an average over the last five games and can be heavily skewed by one good or bad game, or even an injury.
If I only have time for minimal research any given night, without fail I am checking ShrpSports
and CBC Sports
for the team matchup history. Providing other factors align, I will often trust historical data and narrative games over a lot of other metrics. Now, I’m often criticised for putting weight on either of these things whatsoever
, but I’ll still argue that it’s foolish to ignore it.
Obviously rosters change from season to season, and sometimes very dramatically. You should definitely take offseason changes into account. However, there are some teams or specific players that consistently (and often unexpectedly) have another team’s number, and rivalries are sure to bring out the best of both teams despite what fancy stats and standings indicate. Because of this, I tend to look at the outcome of the previous two season’s play and include any games played this season, with a greater weight put on teams that matchup more frequently. Especially if there is a team that shouldn’t be victorious that’s been on a relatively consistent win streak versus their opponent, I’m making a note of the upside from their upset potential, both to avoid picking the opposing goaltender and to consider linestacks that might otherwise be overlooked. I generally ignore playoff performances though because the stakes are higher and roles tend to be different.
It also might seem silly to place any weight on things like personal milestones, birthdays or playing against your former team, but hockey players are human, and more often than not people step up to prove something to themselves or others, or help their teammates achieve personal goals. Advanced Stats
I’ll consider advanced stats for our purposes as anything that isn’t already tracked for DFS points that might actually affect them. So, standard stats would be shots, goals, assists and blocks, and advanced stats would be metrics that affect that. Not all good hockey players are fantasy relevant, and therefore many advanced stats aren’t a good predictor of DFS production. I will say that advanced stats strongly suggested that Tampa Bay were not nearly as good as their record suggested headed into the playoffs. Either way, it’s worth understanding these terms as they’re becoming part of the narrative, and while player and puck tracking will soon be the norm, you can garner a slight edge over the competition with a bit of manual work if you’re so inclined. In any case, none of these stats should be considered in a vacuum, and hockey isn’t a science in that you’ll accurately predict an outcome via advanced stats alone, so don’t go crazy looking for a pattern that probably isn’t there.
You can find all these stats (and much
more) listed below at Corsica Hockey
and Natural Stat Trick
. Shooting Percentage
Shooting percentage is predictive of whether on a player’s ice performance is sustainable. It’s most useful as a comparison to league and individual averages weighed against current performance to determine whether it’s an outlier. Simply, whether a player is slumping or over-performing. Scoring Chances
These are shots taken where goals are likely to be scored, weighed based on where on the ice they’re taken from. It’s fallible, but it’s one of the strongest predictors currently available. If a player has a high shooting percentage but is also taking high danger shots, it stands to reason why they’re converting into goals. It’s worth noting when a line is generating high danger scoring opportunities without producing, as they’ll likely fly under the radar in the meantime. Expected Goals FoAgainst (xGF/xGA)
Expected goals is a measurement of unblocked shots that register on net in the offensive zone. xGF/xGA doesn’t have a strong correlation with actual goals scored, which seems easily explained because it doesn’t take into account individual talent or scoring probability. While there’s a chance any puck thrown toward the net could lead to a goal, without taking into account the shot quality or where it’s generated from, I don’t place much weight on this personally. Expected Save Percentage (xSv%)
This stat takes into account shot quality (though not shooter quality) and quantity and ranks the goaltender against the league average performance. Again, this isn’t necessarily a fair indicator of how well the goaltender performed. It is worth considering for how well the team’s defense has played in front of him though, so it can be used in conjunction with other stats when picking a goalie for the win and save upside. Corsi and Fenwick
Corsi is likely the most recognizable name in advanced stats. This was devised to account for goaltender workload and adjusts for every time they have to be in position to make a save, so it takes into account shot attempts that are blocked or go wide of the net. It’s sister stat, Fenwick, is identical, aside excluding blocked shots. >50% Corsi/Fenwick indicates more shots on net than against. Neither take into account shot quality. Therefore, rather than using positive metrics to determine whether a team will score, I consider this a determining factor for diminishing the opposition from scoring, as they’ll possess the puck less often. This is especially worth considering for linematching.
Note that Corsi/Fenwick will be influenced by zone starts. A player that gets more faceoffs in the offensive zone is more likely to put pucks on net than they are to have shots against theirs, and vice versa. A player that has negative percentage and
>50% offensive zone starts represents poor ice performance. PDO/SPSV%
This statistic is nothing more than shooting percentage added to the save percentage. Since this will always total 100% league-wide, variance higher than 100 supposedly indicates luck, or that a team is not as good as they seem, and anything lower indicates they may be better than they appear. Though this stat supposedly measures luck it can also indicate a significant skill gap (Kucherov and Matthews are dominant in this category). A line generating many high danger scoring chances without conversion should have a low PDO that regresses to the mean.
There are more advanced stats available than these, as well as derivatives of each, though I think this is enough of an overview for daily fantasy purposes. If there’s something you’ve found to be useful though, feel free to drop it in the comments. Lineup Construction
Now that you have narrowed down your chosen lines based on which teams you want to target and have a handful of goaltenders and defensemen/utility players selected, you’re ready to construct your lineups.
This will likely be a very individual process based on system comfortability and how many entries you’re submitting. The default will be simply to load the corresponding app or website and do everything entirely on your device or browser, if not supplementing with pen and paper. Perfectly acceptable. However, this would be both cumbersome and time consuming for MME, so there’s also a bulk upload option available with .csv spreadsheets. This might be the approach you take if you’re using an optimizer too. Optimizers
Free optimizers are basically designed to squeeze out every dollar per average point production or projection, which is very much not what I prefer to build my lineups on. Though there are better options if you’re willing to shell out some money, I don’t play enough volume to warrant a subscription and prefer a more hands-on approach anyway. I would highly recommend checking out Linestar
though. I am not affiliated with them in any way, but they seem under-recognized in the market and are easily the best optimizer available for hockey in my opinion, utilizing a lot of the criteria I’ve mentioned here, including historical data, stacking and advanced stats, etc. which many other optimizers omit. There’s also an option for a brief trial based on ad views. Line Stacker
I personally use a custom line stacker that I hobbled together with spreadsheets and the downloadable .csv files from Draftkings and Fanduel. You can access it here
along with the basic instructions for how it works. Someone always comes along and messes it up somehow, so I would recommend downloading it to your desktop and using Excel to play around with it. Late Night Swaps
Rosters lock when the first game of the night is slated to begin. If there are games on your slate starting later than that, keep in mind that changes can and do happen. Check for last minute line changes or which goaltender takes the ice even if things seemed certain at the morning skate. The worst thing that can happen is watching your first place entry plummet because it was a late reveal that someone has the flu and isn’t on the bench. Additional Resources Breadispain’s FREE Fanduel and Draftkings Line Stacker v1.1
: My own hobbled together line-stacking tool for up to 24 lines. I don't know of a similar tool available right now and I find it handier than an optimizer. There’s also a rudimentary salary comparison tool between Draftkings and Fanduel implemented if that interests you. ShrpSports
: See how well teams have performed against each other historically. CBC Sports
: maybe it’s because I’m Canadian, but I think the CBC does the best overview of the slate with easy access to the latest game data. Daily Faceoff
: Your best source for lineups, injury news and starting goaltender information. Daily Fantasy Nerd
: I use this daily for an overview of who’s hot/cold in the last five games for shots on goal, ice time and points, though it’s worth making a deeper dive to see whether those points came from a single outlier game. Corsica Hockey
and Natural Stat Trick
: I use both of these sites for advanced stats, and occasionally the latter for line-matching data and post-game analysis. Linestar
: Linestar comes closest to developing a DFS tool that actually correlates with how I build my lineups. They offer everything from analysis on value plays, recent performance in varying metrics, historical data vs opponent, change in salary, salary disparity between platforms, and much more. Results DB
: see the best and optimal lineups from previous nights and who came out ahead. Awesemo
and DFS Army
: Since these are the more popular sites, I tend to review their postings and livestreams when time permits on the big slates for anything I might’ve overlooked and to get a better idea of where other people might be targeting. I personally place more weight on boggslite
, for whatever that’s worth to you. Summary
It’s my opinion that Vegas odds and expert predictions should be used as a guide for chalk more than what you should target. It won’t take research to determine that good players with ideal linemates against weak opponents are more likely to score. Don’t ignore narrative games and historical performances. Advanced stats can be both helpful and distracting. Ideally you’ll always stack two or more players who are correlated on the powerplay with one or both of your defensemen, on teams with high GF/G and/or PP%, against teams with low CF% and/or a goaltender with high GAA, ideally with a low PK%. Consider whether these players have been under or overperforming and have any chemistry together. Players who shoot more often increase their point floor and probability to score. It’s advantageous to be on home ice for linematching but it’s rarely a dealbreaker. Round this out with a goaltender with a high expected SA/G and low GAA that fits within your salary constraints. Alternatively, build from the goaltender out or just hamfist whomever works.
And that’s always easier said than done.
Best of luck.
NHL DFS Tuesday 11/12/19 - 9 Game Slate
Disclaimer: I don’t have the time to update this after I’ve submitted anymore, so make sure the lines are still together and there aren’t any late injuries/scratches/etc. If you reach me afterward, I’ll be replying via mobile. submitted by breadispain to dfsports [link] [comments]
I’m still kicking myself a bit for my Saturday picks. We had some company all day and I knew I wouldn’t have a chance for any changes, so I bet conservatively. I had all the right players (Nilsson, Makar, Weber) and lines (WSH2, STL2) but I’d stacked them with only the Hawks instead of each other as well like I normally would :( That’ll teach me to have a social life.
Tonight’s slate is quite manageable with only nine games. Fanduel has their $7 Super Crossbar going on, which means the Breakaway has terrible returns. I’d throw my money on Draftkings tonight, especially the $4 Forecheck with $5k to first that’s capped at 20 entries. You’re much more likely to get a decent win there with 20 lineups than $77 thrown at the Super Crossbar. [email protected]
: The Bruins at home should see BOS1 ownership near 20% on pretty much any slate. With fewer games to target, that seems like a reasonable expectation tonight. The team has cooled off a bit but they’re still one of the best teams in the league, especially on home ice. I’m hoping we see good Bob tonight and the Panthers stay out of the penalty box, where Pastrnak has collected a lot of his points. In seven of eight games, Florida has managed a floor of three goals against the Bruins. There’s always a high chance most of those goals are coming from FLA1, which is a far cheaper line than BOS1. Basically, there’s no reason not to pay up for both of these lines on a smaller slate, but obviously there’s no possibility of stacking both of them together without dropping Dadonov and Bergeron and finding some deep punts. [email protected]
: I still cringe whenever the Habs face the Blue Jackets after that 10-0 game three years ago, but there’s really no reason for it. Still, I was downtown Montreal yesterday and they were firing off cannons every minute for a Remembrance Day ceremony, and I’m pretty sure it triggered some PTSD. Elvis is in net, Columbus is on the road… if Weber is playing, he seems like a lot across the board. If he’s not, things are looking good for Petry. Lines haven’t been confirmed yet, but I would imagine Tatar takes his spot back on the top line and Drouin moves back down to L2. If not, I’d be hard pressed to do much linestacking here. There could be an argument to take Price, but he’s going to need to face a decent amount of rubber and/or get the shutout to really pay off his salary on either site. I have no interest in CBJ stacks, but you will certainly find some value there. [email protected]
: The Pens offense will either be consolidated to Malkin or all over the place tonight with Crosby out. Again, still waiting to see how the lines shake out in his absence. The Rangers powerplay has been surprisingly good, but so has the Pens PK. Plus, DeAngelo’s price tag is going up, I’m not high on these lines in general, and the Pens basically ruined most of my lineups last week, so I don’t feel very comfortable picking on them. That probably means I’ll fade New York and you’ll win a GPP on the backs of the Rangers tonight.
ARI(b)@STL: The Coyotes are on a back-to-back on the road and the Blues have had a seriously great run heading into tonight’s contest. Historically the Blues have choked more often than not against the Coyotes, but that was back when they had Allen in net and Arizona were the underdogs, so it seems less likely that happens tonight. I like O’Reilly and Perron as a mini-stack pretty much any night, with Pietrangelo whenever it feels appropriate. Outside of a Chychrun punt, I’m not high on much else here. [email protected]
: For the first time in forever, the Avs are finding depth scoring in the wake of the Landeskog and Rantanen injuries. Even with Hellebuyck performing extremely well lately, and he definitely has to with the completely depleted defensive group, I’m still on at least Makar tonight. This seems like a sneaky one tonight because Grubauer is still out and Hellebuyck could stand on his head, but we could definitely see a wonky hat trick come from out of nowhere. Probably just Makar for me, but I’m really not sure about this one. [email protected]
: The Preds still technically have the best offense in the league if you average over the season, though they’re slowly coming back to Earth. I’m not sure I’m putting much stock in any historical data here either, as the Canucks are the same team they were with the Sedins, and so on. For what it’s worth, Nashville has had a floor of three with a ceiling of seven goals against the Canucks over the last two seasons, and I have this stupid statistic stuck in my head from last season where Forsberg happens to score more often on Tuesdays (which is really
reaching)... What I’m trying to say is that NSH1 has been reunited and will likely go underowned with the potential to go off tonight. It’s not often you get full powerplay correlation for the Predators this season. I like that Baertschi is on the top line and there is a chance we see some top six goals from the Canucks, especially because Rinne either seems to serve up Vezina performances or implode. Vancouver has had the highest xGF% so far this month and aren’t really having much trouble scoring either. I think I like this more for VAN1 upside as a value stack or NSH1 upside with lower ownership than I’m actually targeting anything here, but this game defnitely has potential for goals. [email protected]
: This isn’t a sexy matchup by any means with two bottom dwellers facing each other, but the Kings are still taking a lot of shots with the lowest xGF% in the league, and probably have a good 70% chance of losing this one even on home ice, so Dubnyk could be in play tonight if you’re not particularly risk averse. He’s certainly cheap enough on Fanduel. The top six from the Wild also offer some value but there’s no overlap with the powerplay and there’s always a chance the defense will step up and steal your points tonight, so that’s a tricky one. It’s quite impressive that I actually have less interest in ever playing the Kings than the Senators right now. There might be one night they happen to have the upside to win you a GPP, and LAK2 is basically free on Draftkings with full powerplay correlation, but it still feels gross to even consider it. [email protected]
: For me, this is projected to be the lowest scoring game on the slate. Gibson at home against the Red Wings should still see decent ownership, even though Detroit has managed to cause a few upsets lately. Fabbri came into the lineup with something to prove and has so far delivered. He could make a solid punt. DET1 is still together and they always have potential for a big game. ANA2 has full powerplay correlation, though they’ve cooled off a bit. It’s most likely this is only a target for goaltending and a punt (Kase, Fabbri) but anything can happen. [email protected]
: If we get to this point in the evening and feel like we’re securely in the money, there’s a good chance this game is going to ruin your night. It’s all going to depend on what Sharks team we see though. McDavid and Draisaitl are a given on the smaller slate, however you want to fit them in. Couture and Karlsson did a lot of damage against the Oilers last season, and SJS1 has full correlation with him tonight. I’m not sure you really want to fade Hertl either, and even Goodrow has been doing more damage than Labanc recently. I’m scratching my head a little bit on this one because this is the sort of game where I’d expect the Sharks to show up, but the Oilers have also (somehow) had a fantastic penalty kill and that’s where I’d expect San Jose to deal the most damage. The Sharks have had a solid 58% Corsi for while the Oilers have had around 47% this month at five on five, but they’ve also given up scarcely more than a goal a game. What the Oilers lack in overall Corsi, they’ve made up for in high danger scoring chances (thanks pretty much entirely to McDavid and Draisaitl). I’m definitely finding it difficult to trust anything right now and the results of this game will be interesting to see if they’re an aberration or confirmation of what should be reliable data. San Jose has to be due for some positive regression and I’m hoping for them to show up tonight.
Probable chalk: BOS1, EDM1, MTL
Top pivots: SJS1, FLA1, NSH1
Value lines: VAN1, STL2, MIN
Defense: Makar, WebePetry, Wild and Preds defensemen in general (Spurgeon/Hunt, Josi/Ellis/Ekholm, etc.), Grzelcyk (quarterbacking in Krug's absence)
“Safest” goaltenders: Dubnyk, Price, Gibson
If you’re new to DFS, check out My 2019-2020 NHL DFS Primer
No, seriously. Fire this fucking guy. submitted by SplurgingSpurgeon to wildhockey [link] [comments]
Just read the most recent Russo Q & A on The Athletic site and it's made me even more upset at how piss-poor Fenton has done in his first year as GM. I've said it multiple times, but almost any member of this sub with half a brain could've done a better job than Fenton has.
Let's look at the Top 5 "Low"-lights of his tenure here:
1. Trading Granlund for Fiala.
As it turns out, Granlund was only available to one team, the Nashville Predators. This is because Fenton had his eyes set specifically on his guy, Kevin Fiala. Now, I have no issues with Fiala and think he'll develop into a Top 6 winger, but the fact that Fenton was only listening to offers for Granlund from one team is just asinine. You can't gauge the value of a player if you're hell-bent on trading that guy for one specific player. Not to mention that he didn't even ask Poille for a fucking pick back. What GM doesn't get a pick back as insurance when trading their best forward for an unknown commodity? It was a horrible trade that really makes me weary of Fenton's abilities to make beneficial trades.
2. Trading Nino for Rask
Nino finished his season with a stat line of 14 Goals, 16 Assists in 36 games with the Hurricanes.
Rask finished his season with a stat line of 2 Goals, 1 Assist in 23 games with the Wild.
This trade from the very start was one that was marked with the reactions of, "Huh?" across the NHL. Fans of the Hurricanes had all but settled with the fact that Rask would be a buyout candidate in the off-season. So what does Fenton do? Well of course, he trades our 3rd best winger for him! I understand that Nino had a string of about 80+ games where he just wasn't performing, but you absolutely do not go out and trade a 26-year old winger because he's had a bad season. You definitely don't go and trade him for a fucking buy-out candidate. Nino has the potential to be a 30-30 guy, you're seeing it in Carolina. We all knew this, but Fenton didn't. This guy seemed to think he could get a grasp of what this team was based off of half a season of games. He doesn't have a fucking clue what the value of these players should be.
3. Selecting Filip Johansson with our 2018 1st Round Pick
Fenton came in really strong to start his career here. So strong that he drafted a late 2nd roundeearly 3rd rounder with his first pick. He identified that this team was really lacking at D and we definitely needed to reach to start developing more. I didn't have a problem selecting a defenseman with the pick though. In fact, 6 of the next 8 picks were for defensemen. I'd be willing to bet that few GMs had Johansson in front of any of them though.
4. Signing Staal to an extension at the deadline
Russo released that Boston was interested in sending a 1st + a player to Minnesota for Staal. Having already traded away Nino, Coyle, and Granlund, this trade should have been a no-brainer for Minnesota. We're clearly in the process of a rebuild and adding a 1st rounder for someone that could very likely re-sign here in the summer anyways is a great move. You'd have to be an idiot not to do this. Then, Minnesota signs Staal to a 2-year extension? So we trade away our forward core to get younger and we're clearly going to be a worse team for the next few years. However, Fenton thought it'd be a good idea to not trade away the only 30+ player on this team that has any value. It just makes absolutely no sense why you would not make that trade. If you want Staal, you approach him in the offseason and inquire about signing him. If you don't get him, that's fine. This team is in a re-build at this point, we'd only benefit from a few years of Top 10 picks.
5. Not trading Zucker
I like Zucker a lot, I'd love to have him on a competitive team. This team is not that. Fenton is clearly building a team that has a core of forwards that are 20-23 years old. Guys that will be similar in age to Kaprizov when he comes over. That's a fine plan and all, but we should probably start drafting high-end 18 year old forward prospects that could be in the NHL in 2 years. How do you do that? You acquire 1st round picks for your players, you draft forwards, and you finish in the bottom 10 of the league so you have a chance at the top pick. After trading Granlund and Nino, this is the route we should've taken. Maybe Fenton still trades Zucker in the off-season for a better 1st than Calgary's would've been, but he's already lost out on so much value.
Realistically, we should've gotten these additional picks in the trades that Fenton made/should've made:
1st for Nino
1st+ for Granlund
1st for Staal
1st for Zucker
2nd/3rd for Coyle (trade with Boston should've been contigent on making it further into the playoffs. I guarantee you Boston wouldn't have a problem giving a 1st in that trade on the condition that they win the Cup)
Our prospect pool would have been re-vamped and although we'd be stuck with Suter and Parise's contracts during a re-build, we would've just cleared $20M+ in space for the future. That money could've been used to re-sign Spurgeon, trade and sign for high-end forwards, and/or sign high-end UFAs to play alongside Kaprizov in 2020 or 2021.
Instead, we have a team that is very likely going to be good enough to be a bubble team and nothing else. This team got worse this season, but we still have the talent to be a decent team. Decent teams don't win Cups and this team isn't going to with Fenton at the helm.
NHL Thursday 8 Game Slate
submitted by breadispain to dfsports [link] [comments]
Disclaimer: I don’t have the time to update this after I’ve submitted anymore, so make sure the lines are still together and there aren’t any late injuries/scratches/etc. If you reach me afterward, I’ll be replying via mobile. Last Night Review
I believe we saw this at the beginning of last season as well, but there wasn’t a lot of full line correlation for scoring last night. Lots of two man stacks or defensemen would’ve set you apart more than usual, even for a small slate. I happily rode Edler in all my Draftkings picks and he managed to hit both the block and SOG bonuses for best defenseman on the slate. I decided to go with Barrie over Rielly just to differentiate with my Leafs stacks, and it turns out it really didn’t matter because both were viable options. Anderson had almost exactly the same DFS points on Draftkings as Andersen due to the difference in shot volume and with the new bonus. The thing that really bit me was otherwise fading the Oilers/Canucks game. Pearson came up huge with an 11 shot night and Draisaitl had three points. I had a ton of Markstrom, assuming the Canucks would be on the 3-2 side of that win. Even WSH2 panned out for me apart from that. Overall that would’ve turned out a lot better had Matthews not scored a second goal last night and Markstrom got the W. I knew going into it that I had overcommitted, but that was pretty much a given on opening night. Nothing hit high enough for a large win, think I dropped $30 overall.
A few people messaged me and said they doubled their money, and nearly everyone who entered their first contest (ever!) profited. Nicely done. Looking forward to winning my money back and then some tonight :) Contests
Draftkings is doing another $10 tournament with $25k top prize, but I’m only doing the two single entries there ($5 and $12) with a handful of entries in the Fanduel Breakaway. $20k vs $25k, much cheaper entry fee. Matchups [email protected]
: The Lightning won six straight contests and have only scored less than five in one of those matchups. It’s unlikely they’ll hit the same ceiling tonight with Bobrovsky in net and Point out of the lineup, but TBL1 is enticing as always, especially without too many of the loaded lines on the slate tonight. One of the other big lines being FLA1: Barkov and Huberdeau are debatably the best duo for cash games on any given slate and keep improving each year. Though this isn’t an ideal matchup for them, that also means they might go overlooked tonight. [email protected]
: The Rangers have a very light schedule to start the season and should be looking to have a very good home opener. With one of the most improved rosters in the offseason and the addition of Trouba for the revenge narrative, I might take a stab at the top two lines there tonight, though it’s worth noting the Rangers have not had much success scoring against the Jets in general. Morrissey should see huge minutes tonight with Byfuglien still deciding his future, and could easily hit value through peripherals and picking up a point or two here. I’m not confident Ehlers will stay on the top line if things don’t go well early, so while WPG1 has the potential to bash home a 3+ points tonight, I’m a little scared off it right now. Connor also gets the powerplay correlation over Ehlers, if you wanted to gamble on him as LW instead. You might also consider Pionk at only $3700/$3900 (the other side of the revenge narrative, he also comes with some offensive upside). [email protected]
: As a Habs fan, I find it incredible that Galchenyuk didn’t secure a PP1 spot after Kessel left, seeing that his greatest strength with us was one timers from the dot. Perhaps in time. Tanev on the second line isn’t exactly sexy, though it does bring the total price down a lot. PIT1 would be the obvious target here with full powerplay correlation, with either Schultz (who tends to rotate in and is a lot cheaper) or Letang. Splitting up Skinner and Eichel likely won’t last very long, though Olofsson is going to drop the pricetag of BUF1 a lot tonight and
they’re seeing top powerplay duties. It looks like Dahlin will be starting on PP1 with them, but Ristolainen probably has a safer floor right now if you’re targeting the Pens for cash games, especially on Draftkings. Colin Miller could also provide some offense as a punt. As much as the Sabres seem to be getting better every year, there seems something seriously wrong with that locker room and it hasn’t translated sustainably to the ice. The Pens have scored a floor of three here over the last two seasons, so if I had to choose one, I’d personally go with PIT1 over BUF1 here, especially on home ice. [email protected]
: I don’t think a lot of people will be looking at this game, but I only see two possible outcomes here. Both of these teams love to shoot and rarely convert on their xGF%, so Price or Mrazek could easily be one of, if not the
top goaltender tonight. On the flipside, the Habs have historically had Mrazek’s number, including lighting him up for 10
goals with the Red Wings. I wouldn’t put much stock in that though. There’s a lot of depth scoring here as well, making it harder to pinpoint where the goals are coming from. MTL1 would be the safest pick, always a strong 5v5 contender on home ice, or CAR2, simply for value and the greater likelihood of full line correlation should they score. Rookies seem to have got a huge salary bump this year, with Kotkaniemi unreasonably over $5k like Kakko. Gardiner and Petry have reasonable value in the $4kish mark. [email protected]
: The Preds have won five close games in a row. I think a lot of people will overlook this game, but Josi’s value should increase now that he’s the #1 PP guy with Subban gone and Rinne might be a safe bet for cash. Ekholm isn’t a flashy player, but he’s insultingly cheap on Draftkings for $3600 if you need a punt play there. NSH2 with Forsberg/Duchene/Granlund could really light it up if they find some early chemistry. On the Wild side, well, Dumba’s back, that’s a major boon to their offense, but they’ve questionably traded away so many of their good pieces (Niederreiter, Coyle, the aforementioned Granlund) that their scoring threats are consolidated to the top line, I suppose. It’s a reach but they’ll see low ownership if they do manage to go off. [email protected]
: From what I’ve gathered listening to fantasy league podcasts during the offseason, it’s that people are really
high on Ben Bishop this season. Hopefully that keeps people off BOS1 tonight, because I always love the opportunity for those guys going under-owned. This is projected as being the lowest scoring total by all the metrics I follow, so I might also just look here for goaltenders. I’m not sure if I like Radulov being bumped off DAL1. I don’t really feel like I’ve got a good read on this one. There’s serious offensive potential here that could also just be squelched by tight defenses. [email protected]
: If you’re riding into the 10pm slot feeling good about your place in the ladder, this game could be a rude awakening. It goes without saying that COL1 on home ice could break the slate regardless of competition. Makar is priced a bit higher than I’d like but he’s definitely in a good spot. I like that Kadri is getting a chance on the first powerplay unit too, just like when he was with the Leafs. On the other side, CGY1 + Giordano also aren’t coming cheap. I think I might take a look at CGY2 correlated with Gio tonight in a few places. [email protected]
: This isn’t exactly a glamorous matchup, though I’m sure a few people will be intrigued by the Kessel addition or look here for value in general. There’s also a case for Kuemper or Gibson, as either goaltender won’t break the bank and could steal the show. Full disclosure: I’m withholding a wee bit of information today because a) you’ll think I’m nuts anyway and b) if it pans out, I want to be the one that benefits from it :P
If you’re new to DFS, check out My 2019-2020 NHL DFS Primer
Nashville vs Montreal
Matt Duchene will be a prime target of the Canadiens and of the Predators. However the Predators were said to be the favourites after dealing PK Subban and clearing 9Mil. But here's the thing: it's never all about money. It's also about winning. PK Subban, despite the down year was still the second best d-man on the Preds incredible blue line. That blue line is the reason they've been so successful. However they just lost a huge part of that blue line. So knowing that the Preds' forte is their defense and that that's what explains why they've been in contention the last few years, what happens if you remove not only Shea Weber but also the guy he was traded for in PK Subban? Dante Fabbro won't just step in and fill the void. submitted by Hab4life15 to Habs [link] [comments]
Now let's look look at cap space. The Nashville Predators have around 13 million in cap space and only have Colton Sissons as a significant RFA to resign thus leaving enough space to re-sign Duchene, right? WRONG! Why? Because Roman Josi, the team's captain and best d-man will be looking for upwards of 9-9.5M as a UFA and it will be in Nashville's best interest to get him signed this summer rather than the next because that number will only trend higher. And guess what? It's not just him. The Nashville Predators also have Mikael Granlund to re-sign next year and you can bet they'll want to keep him after giving up young gun Kevin Fiala in return for him. Oh and there's also Craig Smith (though I doubt they keep him) and Austin Watson. If they sign Duchene, who will likely command 9.5/10.5 they'd be hurting themselves. Now let's look at the Habs' situation: yes they have Max Domi to re-sign next year. And yes they have Lehkonen and Armia this year. But they're in less cap trouble than Nashville is. The Habs will have a few up and coming prospects and will be forced to trade a few vets like Andrew Shaw, Paul Byron and maybe even Tomas Tatar to make place for guys like Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Ryan Poehling up front in the next year or two. So I think we're set cap-wise more than Nashville is.
Now, which team will prove more attractive in the future? This is important because Duchene will likely sign a 7 year deal. It'll probably be his last major pay day and since its long term he'll want to look to contribute on a team destined for runs. The Montreal Canadiens will have a core of Domi, Drouin, KK, Gallagher, Caufield, Suzuki, Poehling, Danault, Weber, Romanov, Mete and Price. The Predators will have Forsberg, Johansen (overrated), Arvidsson, Josi, Ekholm, Ellis and Fabbro as their core (maybe also Granlund and Tolvanen). The key here is goaltending. Rinne is getting up in age and the only viable replacement for him is Juuse Saros who definitely has starter potential but who won't be an elite one. On the Habs side of things you have Carey Price, friend of Duchene, considered by many as the best goalie in the world. Yes he will also age but this is where Cayden Primeau comes in. He's proven to be the biggest steal in the 2017 NHL draft and has the potential to be elite especially with a mentor like Carey Price. So as for the near future the Habs are set and look much better than Nashville's team.
In conclusion I think that the fact that Nashville is automatically being penciled in as the destination for Duchene is wrong. They are a strong contender but I truly believe that the Habs have what it takes to convince him to sign here. Also he's friends with Price and Weber (international stage+he speaks highly of them). And i know some of you would rather not go for a guy like him and that's fine you're entitled to your own opinions. However I think he would put us over the hump and make us contenders. So yes the future is bright but adding an elite player to that future would be the icing on the cake.
Yet another offer sheet post .. been thinking about this way too much and need to put it out there so the people (you) can give it a trial by fire
submitted by 92EarlG to Habs [link] [comments]
I've been thinking a lot about this scenario wherein I'd be very excited if Bergy yeets a sheet.
Just gonna put it out there, feel free to roast it etc. I feel like theres maybe a tiny (?) bit of justification for this based on the fact Bergevin has been in touch with Marner's camp and thus is at least possibly considering the possibility of sending an offer sheet. Plus, sources such as Lebrun have speculated he might.
Final disclaimer is that I've done the best research I can but Im pretty ignorant about the Flames so I could be totally wrong about pretty much anything I've said. That said, heres what I've got:
That out of the way, there's a player out there who I think meets some criteria that might be important to Berg:
- Fall underneath the 4 first window
- Team in a major cap crunch with other roster spots/positions being higher priority to contribute to the team's success
- A player that we can at least speculate bergevin would be a fan of who would likely be worth the high cost & play a position/role that would be helpful to the Habs
Subject: MATT TKACHUK
The Calgary Flames are currently sitting at essentially 13m of cap space, with 19 players on the roster - 8 dmen, 10 forwards, 1 goalie. https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/flames
The significant players they need to sign this year are Tkachuk, Bennett (also RFA), David Rittich (RFA), and possibly Mike Smith (UFA) or another strong goalie. My rather uneducated guess of how much this would cost them in a perfect world is ~7m for Tkachuk, ~4.5m for Rittich, ~3.5m for another goalie, ~3.5m for Bennett. This team has a lot of players who put up significant points last year, has MAJOR question marks on defence after this year, and has been lacking a reliable goaltender debatably since Kiprusoff left.
As for Tkachuk's merit, he is a 21 year old likely future captain with extremely high pedigree. He's a modern power forward which would be very very helpful for us in the future as I'm definitely not one who is afraid to go small/fast, but big/fast tends to fare a little better in terms of playoff longevity/consistency. Him & KK & Poehling could provide some real nice size in our top 9 for the foreseeable future. This year he scored 34g/77a, both of which would've led the habs. I'd say he immediately becomes our best forward and perfectly fits our hard-nosed fast culture. He also has INCREDIBLE possession numbers (57% corsi over the last 2 years). Again, I can't think of a much better add to our top 6......
So that just leaves us with the contract. What would be A contract that wouldn't hamstring us but would at the very least cause Calgary to fret about whether or not they can match it?
The exact one he has fairly explicitly asked for: https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-restricted-free-agents-rfas-contract-rumours-2019-offer-sheet-trade/
"(Matthews) set the bar for RFA's this year... just going with the approach of a five-year deal, too. Maybe people haven’t seen it in a couple years, but it’s not uncommon. Guys used to do that all the time. He definitely set the bar for this year.”
Thus, I would bet a decent amount of money he'd happily say yes to a 10.5 x 5 offer sheet, just 1m less than Matthews which is fair since centers are typically valued more highly. This would give them 2.5m for Rittich, Bennett, and a backup goalie... yikes. Is this a lot of money? Absolutely.... but I'd way rather spend it on Tkachuk than on Matt Duchene, and that's a hill I'll die on.
This contract/price point is ideal because as I mentioned before this is in the window where we'd only have to offer 2 firsts/1 second/1 third which could likely be returned via smaller trades/tdl moves over the next few years, and I believe we could pick which years to send to them.
"BUT LD IS OUR BIGGEST NEED!!!!!!"
Very true. However I'd say this move would give us a considerable position of strength to deal from - top 6 wingers. This probably bumps Tatar down the depth chart to the third line. Don't flame me for this but one deal I could see being palatable in which we get a LD would be a one for one tataleddy swap. Im not gonna die on that hill but rather the concept that we could then move an extra fwd for a defenseman possibly.
Anyways I'm tired of typing. Have at 'er.
Owls' Draft Prospect Review: Ethan Keppen
submitted by Roughly6Owls to CalgaryFlames [link] [comments]
Today, I am covering two things. I want to talk about NHLe, which many of you have probably heard about, and why it is an interesting stat for an internet scout that can give you some extra information without too much work. Then, I want to talk about Ethan Keppen. Without further ado:
NHL Equivalency Values?
NHL Equivalency Values, or NHLe for short, are the result of a pretty tidy equation designed by Gabriel Desjardins (if you're interested, his site is still online: feel free to read the original work yourself
) -- one of the OG analytics bloggers -- back in 2004 to answer this question: how can we project a player's stats to the NHL? In the intervening time, NHLe has been improved and refined by countless people, NHLe difficulty factors are updated semi-regularly by internet people (Rob Vollman occasionally releases updates on his twitter), and there's even an online calculator now
Finding a player's NHLe requires three numbers: the player's points and games played in their current league, and that league's difficulty factor -- a ratio (so, between 0-1) of how hard it is to get one point in that league compared to the NHL (the difficulty factor of the NHL is 1). To discover this difficulty factor, someone with a calculator takes every player who ever made the NHL from the league you care about, and then divides their points per game in the NHL by their points per game in the other league to come up with the average. This average then suggests how much a point is worth in the other league, compared to an NHL point.
As an example, the difficulty factor for the OHL is 0.304, so scoring one point in the OHL suggests that player can score 0.304 points in the NHL (in the same number of games). A player who scores 62 points in 62 games in the OHL is predicted to score about 25 points in 82 NHL games, and it is common to say that his NHLe is 25.
Alright, so NHLe is some math stuff. Why do we care?
The reason we should care about NHLe is because points are one of the easiest things for internet scouts to get their hands on, but also because players who hit high NHLe in their younger years are statistically more likely to score more in the NHL
. That article by NHLe pro Byron Bader (who I believe is working with a team for the draft this year, so his work also may not be long for this world) is long and dense, so here's the money quote:
Over 90% of players (62 of 69 players) that went on to be impact point producers had recorded a 30+ NHLe at least once, before turning pro.
A quick note here: impact point producers are defined as players with a career PPG of 0.6 or higher in the NHL.
A 30+ NHLe in your draft year is very, very good: in the OHL this year the only person who did it was Arthur Kaliyev (102 points in 67 games for a 38.8NHLe), and if the Flames draft him at 26 I'll be overjoyed. However, this means that often you need to draft guys who are below 30 NHLe and hope they improve into stars... but that doesn't mean we're wasting our time:
78% of all IPPs [above 0.6 NHL points/game] and 62% of all APPs [0.4-0.59 NHL points/game] had an equivalencyof at least 20 in their draft year. Conversely, 40% of all RPPs [0-0.39 NHL points/game] and only 27% of all BUSTS [players who did not make the NHL] had an equivalency of at least 20 in their draft year.
So, draft players who score in lower leagues, you'll get players who score in upper leagues. Great, thanks for the analysis. But this is actually a pretty strong result -- you can't say anything in particular about a player with an NHLe of 25, but you can say that players with compareable production were more likely to make it to the NHL, and in a league where hitting on 2 picks in a 7 pick draft is considered a success, improving your odds can't be a bad thing. Use NHLe as a baseline to guide your further research, and save yourself some time by avoiding the guys who aren't good in junior (especially for forwards where points are basically a measurement of success).
So, with my introduction to NHLe done, let's talk about Ethan Keppen -- who did hit 20NHLe in his draft year, and is likely to improve on that number going forward.
Ethan Keppen, LW, Flint Firebirds (OHL)
CSS Ranking: 74th North American skater
Ethan Keppen played with the Flint Firebirds this year, which is most easily described as a terrible team: they allowed 43 more goals than any other OHL team, had a goal differential of -138, and finished with 38 points in a league where the cut-off to make the playoffs was 60 (somehow they still finished 8 points ahead of the Kingston Frontenacs though).
On this dumpster fire of a team, Ethan Keppen scored 59 points in 68 games (21.1 NHLe) -- good for 6th among draft eligible U18 players in the OHL. 49 of those points were at 5v5 (3rd among draft eligibles behind only Philip Tomasino and Arthur Kaliyev), and 42 of those 5v5 points were either goals or primary assists (4th behind those two guys and Connor McMichael) -- among draft eligibles, only Connor McMichael had a higher percentage of primary points scored this year (i.e. Keppen probably scores more points if more of his teammates can make a pass). Keppen was one of only 5 draft eligible U18 OHLers to score 30 goals (behind those same three guys and tied with Blake Murray), and in the same group he took the third most shots, and had the second most high danger shots. Flint ran through Ethan Keppen and linemate Ty Dellandrea, and basically no one else was worth mentioning.
Keppen is a true power forward -- he crashes and bangs, all game long, at every point of the ice. When he's playing his game, he fights for every rebound and loose puck, drives the crease all the time, and forces defenders into bad spots on the forecheck. He thrives below the hashmarks, is always willing to make or take a hit to finish the play, and treats every puck battle like it might decide the game -- his work ethic and compete level has been praised by basically every source I can find, and the general manager in Flint loves him. It's also worth mentioning that in interviews he claims that he's a defense-first player
, and he was played in all situations for Flint this year (no one else was worth putting on the ice) and scout sources mostly liked his 200' game, though because of how bad Flint was the results aren't really there (though we also have a serious lack of stats for the CHL in general).
When he's playing well, he's a wrecking ball that can't be separated from the puck and his play-style naturally creates tons of space for his team -- one of those players who can make his presence felt all over the ice and take over a game on the right night. His shot is a cannon
(highlight package from 17-18) with an excellent release, and you can see from that highlight package that he can snipe -- which is the reason he's considered a goalscorer (despite having more primary 5v5 assists than any U18 draft eligible OHLer except McMichael!).
His skating is a point of concern for most scouts -- his stride is powerful and he can accelerate well, which is good for play in tight or in the corners, but his technique certainly needs work to improve his top speed if he wants to be a good winger in transition at the higher levels and that will certainly determine whether he can make it -- in the modern NHL speed isn't going to become less important. This is the big question for Keppen.
Keppen had great results this year on a terrible team, and statistically he's very close to players ranked in the late first round (McMichael and Tomasino) despite getting far less help all year -- if you're looking for break-out candidates, choosing someone on Flint to explode next season isn't a terrible bet. He's definitely got warts and that's what'll hold him out of the first round, but if you think the skating is a solvable issue, then you're taking a chance on an all-around dependable player with a good brain on top of a very good toolbox: a great recipe for finding the next David Perron/Alex Killorn type of middle six swiss-army-knife winger. If his skating doesn't improve enough he's probably AHL-bound, but he's got the kind of play-style that works nicely in any part of the NHL line-up and I wouldn't dismiss him in a possible depth role, so he's got a decent floor also.
Previously: Bryce Brodzinski
NHL Slate Overview - 2/19/19 - 9 Games
submitted by breadispain to dfsports [link] [comments]
Full disclosure: I haven’t been posting here because I haven’t been doing my research. I’ve been really strapped for time lately. This hasn’t stopped me from gambling though, and I dropped a good $200 last week throwing darts! Ugh. There are a lot of nice contests tonight and here’s hoping I can reset from that foible. Since I’ve been away a while, here’s my General NHL DFS Primer
for anyone that hasn’t been over there yet.
Over on Draftkings, the $8 Two-Man Advantage has a $25,000 top prize. You’ll see a lot of sharks here tonight. I'm maxing out the Spin-o-Rama with only $3.60 entry and a $2500 top prize, hoping to go against weaker competition and take advantage of the lower max entries. The $20 Cross Check is maxed at 3 with $1000 to first, which could be a decent contrarian move from the $12 Knuckle Puck (also $1000 tonight!) for people looking to make lower entry bets. I realize most of this falls on deaf ears since most of you are cash and low stakes players though :)
Your best bet for your money is the $2 Wrist Shot on Fanduel. The max prize is “only” $600 but there’s a max entry of 5. Typically the top prize is as low as $200 here and max entries are more than double, so you have a better chance than usual of coming out on top in my opinion, especially if you’re capping at $10 tonight. The $1 One Timer and $5 Save have also seen a bump in prizes ($400 and $500, respectively) making them actually worth playing again too. Not to knock the $5.55 breakaway with $15,000 to first, but I’d rather throw more entries into other contests personally. [email protected]
: The Panthers are only slightly above .500 this month but are coming off a Barkov hat trick in their last game versus the Canadiens, so maybe they’re going to start scoring again? They’ve also historically had a floor of no less than three goals vs the Sabres in eight straight games. Neither team has been that hot defensively lately. FLA1 remains an affordable stack in both formats, especially with Vatrano on wing, though they might see higher ownership based on recency bias. Yandle has five points in his last five games. FLA2 is worth consideration as well. Despite the lack of production, they’re still firing the puck at a reasonable clip and have an affordable price tag for their talent. Pominville makes the rest of BUF1 attainable as a target, and Reimer could certainly bleed some goals, but I don’t think it’s a must play on this slate considering Eichel has been primarily contributing assists and will be difficult to pay off his salary without 2+ tonight. Mittelstadt is seeing some PP1 time and could hit value easily at only $3000 on Draftkings though. [email protected]
: After basically bottoming out shortly after the Hall injury, the Devils are managing to find the back of the net again. Bratt, who is basically free, has points in eight of his last nine games. If the matchup frightens you, know that, like the previous matchup, the Devils have managed 3+ in nine straight games versus the Penguins, which is a touch higher than they’ve been allowing this month but still doable. The caveat here is that the Pens desperately need this win (and more) to hold onto a wildcard spot, so I’m expecting them to come out swinging tonight. PIT2 with Aston-Reese back has great value for upside on Draftkings. The Devils have also been pisspoor defensively, making this a decent gamestack in general. Schultz isn’t going to match his production from when he stepped in for Letang a while back, but he’s still a steal at his salary in both formats, in particular on Draftkings where he’s only $3500. If you are
considering the Devils, it’s a gamble as to where the goals are coming from, but the entire top six is affordable enough to work with a Lightning powerplay stack. Zajac has been the better performer historically, for whatever value that holds to you. I like him just because Palmieri is on his wing.
TBL(b)@PHI: This matchup has averaged over 11 goals in their last three meetings (all to OT/SO) and Tampa will be sporting Domingue on the back-to-back. I really like the looks of this one for a game stack tonight, though it’s not much of a stretch to say Kucherov’s line will see 20%+ ownership with the way he’s been playing lately. You might want to consider a full powerplay stack if you can find the means to afford it, if you want to differentiate from the pack. The Flyers record has improved but this is largely because of Hart, they’re still bleeding scoring chances and they will capitalize tonight no matter how well he’s been playing. That, or he gets a 50+ save shutout. Your call. My money would be on PHI1 tonight, though PHI2 has been the better line of late. I just expect they’ll be seeing more time in their own zone based on the competition. [email protected]
: I’m not saying this game couldn’t
get out of hand, only that I’m hoping it doesn’t. The Hurricanes are 7-2 this month and are looking to slide into a playoff spot (and hopefully hold it this time). I like the top line in particular for full powerplay correlation, but Aho’s salary is hard to justify, I don’t know if Williams will really deliver… eh. I’m hoping for depth scoring overall and enough pedestrian Rangers bounces to make McElhinney not really pay himself off either. There’s definitely potential this could burn me though, that’s just how I’m playing it tonight.
CBJ(b)@MTL: Columbus is coming off a back-to-back and actually had a really good game versus the Lightning, despite the 5-1 end result. They had more scoring chances, shots and better possession overall but simply couldn’t capitalize, then got torched with Korpisalo in net. This is a huge game for both teams looking to redeem themselves. Like the matchup above, I’m hoping this is a goaltender game with Bobrovsky vs Price and we’re looking at a 3-2 or less result. The probability of either side having the
line that goes off tonight seems slim, but outside of CBJ1 you’ll see moderate to low ownership of anything here tonight if they do. [email protected]
: The Blues have not lost yet in February and Binnington has had back-to-back shutouts, so I understand why his salary has been increasing, but it’s still hard to swallow him being priced the same as Kucherov and the second-highest overall salary ($9100) next to Vasilevskiy on Fanduel tonight. Over on Draftkings, he’s “only” $7800. The Leafs have dropped five straight against the Blues historically while managing the fewest goals versus their opponent for the slate tonight. I’m not sure how much weight you want to put on that, considering the offensive potential there, but there’s high upside with probable lower ownership of Binnington should you choose to go that route. I think STL1 is a really good pivot from the other big guns tonight. The team has more goals per game than anyone this month and Tarasenko has been absolutely crushing it lately. Pietrangelo looks good for a full stack here, Thomas, like Mittelstadt, gives you stand alone value with powerplay correlation. [email protected]
: I guess the Ducks are riding a bit of a post-firing resurgence right now, but without Gibson or much offense to mention I don’t know if that makes them fantasy relevant. The Wild keep shuffling their lines due to injuries, and after trading away Niederreiter (for a now-injured Rask) and being without Dumba, it’s hard to like much here either. MIN2 (Parise/Granlund/Kunin) accounts for all top six goals in the last five games and that about says it all. I do
have some love for Brad Hunt tonight, as I think he’ll go overlooked showing as a 4th liner with minimal TOI. He’s a defensemen on the top powerplay unit and won’t deliver anything outside of offense, but even with only an assist tonight priced at floor on Fanduel is worth a gamble. I wouldn’t count out Suter or Spurgeon either, since there isn’t a whole lot of offensive-first defensemen on this slate. [email protected]
: The only thing that would get me interested in the Stars right now would be if Heiskanen were on the trade block. There’s some potential for NSH1 here, if not Boyle as a punt, and PK has been firing the puck more since getting PP1 duties. They’ll likely see minimal ownership based on their salary, and Johansen rarely shows up to justify it unless he picks up an assist on every goal, but if you’re doing MME I’d take a few stabs at them here. Overall this hasn’t been a very interesting matchup but the edge is definitely for the Preds for me. [email protected]
: Draisaitl has been good for basically a goal a game in a bunch of X-1 losses lately. The return of Gagner might ignite the second line for a brief spark and comes with serious value. Klefbom’s lost his powerplay positioning and Nurse is overpriced with the way they’ve been performing, so I don’t really know what you would want to target here for the Oilers. Oesterle has had a solid floor and upside for his salary in both formats, and I’m sure people are taking chances on Ekman-Larsson while his salary continues to dip. I still don’t mind Chychrun on Fanduel from time to time, especially versus weaker defensive teams like Edmonton.
I’m liking Hunt, Chychrun, Severson and Schultz for value defensemen, with Pietrangelo, Yandle, Suter or Spurgeon being decent pivots from Letang, who will likely see huge ownership tonight. I’m hoping most goals are concentrated to the early half of the slate because I have minimal interest in everything after the Blues and Leafs game. If historical data can be trusted, your best bet is a Lightning/Flyers game stack or hoping all goals for the Panthers and Devils are from the same line. Otherwise, hope NSH1 or STL1 see lower ownership and happen to go off tonight. If absolutely none of this is true, I’ll pretend this never happened next week. I’m only really liking at Binnington or Reimer tonight. God help me.
Trouble making your stacks work and hate using an optimizer? Try my custom Fanduel and Draftkings Line Stacker
The KHL playoffs preview
Get yourself ready for a huge post, degens.
Today the KHL (Russian hockey league) play-offs are starting. So I have decided to start sharing my picks since the last season was a huge success for me. Some might think that KHL is boring and slow, and I totally agree with that. There is truly little entertainment in watching every single match during the regular season. Personally, I like NHL matches more, even though I have to ruin my schedule to watch them since I live in Russia. In general, PO matches are different from regular matches - same applies to KHL. What’s more important - they are hell of a lot more predictable. I guess, everyone here will be glad to take a gulp of fresh air after NHL’s tough stretch (including myself).
I will be posting my picks with write-ups in NHL thread, but here I would like to give some futures and not just to place bets (because, in my opinion, futures are not that good for making money), but also to introduce you to the teams and the overall situation there.
Eastern Conference 1. Yekaterinburg (1st) – Tractor Chelyabinsk (8th) Pick – 4:0 final score of the series Odds – 3.55
Tractor is a huge mess, the team has been failing during the regular season and has made it to PO by a miracle. At times it would seem that they did everything in their power to lose their spot in the upper chart, but somehow still held it. Yekaterinburg, though, is one of the best teams in the league. Prior to the start of the season they were sponsored by a generous investor and now Yekaterinburg’s budget is simply huge compared to most other teams'. Yekaterinburg made some good transfers and all the new players have achieved the perfect chemistry. in the beginning of the season the team won 20 matches in a row and showed that their goal of reaching the Stanley Cup final is totally feasible. I do expect Yekaterinburg to go 4-0 against Tractor mercilessly.
2. Barys Astana (2nd) – Nizhniy Novgorod (7th) Pick – Barys to win series with (-1.5) match handicap Odds – 1.95
NN is that kind of team that makes it to PO purely because of its fervor. I don’t think they can stand a chance against Barys and 4:0 here is very likely. But bookies are giving us exciting odds for Barys (-1.5) in this series and this is exactly the kind of a future you would want to make. Barys is really strong in this season and I don’t see how NN can steal more than 2 games against them.
3. Metallurg Magnitogorsk (3rd) – Salavat Ufa (6th)
This one is really close. I wouldn't be too sure about any pick here. Total Over, though, isn't looking that bad, but the odds are questionable. Well, Over 6 is looking fine, 7 games are totally possible there.
4. Avangard Omsk (4th) – Bars Kazan (5th) Pick – Bars Kazan to qualify Odds – 1.9
Avangard entered the season as a completely new team. Their new coach Bob Hartley and new players (even from NHL) did their job well. But then something strange happened - the team started playing in an overly aggressive manner (their shots on goal count is exceedingly high), but to no avail. There is, of course, a chance that Hartley is in fact a godlike strategist and his team worsened performance on purpose - perhaps to spare stamina or to lull their opponents into false sense of safety (if someone is familiar with the methods he used in NHL, please do share in comments) - but tbh I don't see Avangard beating the current champion anytime soon. Kazan is a skillful and disciplined team, their playstyle is just perfect for PO games. After all, Kazan had won the Cup three times and this is the best result in KHL history. Their coach remains the same and his playstyle hasn't changed.
Western Conference 1. CSKA (1st) – Podolsk (8th)
This one is very simple, the main favorite of this season against the team that could easily lost their PO slot. I think Podolsk is no match to CSKA and I don’t think CSKA wants to play more games than necessary. Still, I don’t like a 4:0 final score for 2.00 odds, it’s just ridiculous and not worth it in my opinion. Still, this is probably the best pick for this series.
2. SKA St. Petersburg (2nd) – Sp. Moscow (7th)
This series is very hard to predict. SKA has some problems with their game, but it could be a result of their decision not to waste too much energy before PO. Regardless, Moscow now is in healthy shape and can put up a good fight here. Moreover, odds are really bad for a good pick. Skip for sure.
3. Lokomotiv Yaroslavl (3rd) – Sochi (6th)
Sochi is definitely a problematic matchup for Lokomotiv, Loko players admitted that many times during the season. The line is bad, I don’t see many compelling picks for this series, but (-2.5) games handicap at 2.08 odds does seem worth the shot. I really don’t see Sochi winning more than 1 game. Still, I suggest skipping this.
4. Jokerit (4th) – Dyn. Moscow (6th)
This is a tough series, as much as I like Jokerit I also am afraid of Dynamo. This team is ridiculous, I mean, there are just two players that are hard carrying Moscow – Dmitri Kagarlitsky and Vadim Shipachyov, these two guys are all there is to the team. At the start of the season this team had been losing a lot, and even after swapping their coach for a new one (Krikunov) their game remained subpar for a while. But in the end, Dynamo (i.e. Kagarlitsky and Shipachyov) started stomping. Jokerit is also good, I could tell you a lot about this team, but I see no point in doing it now. This series should in general be skipped, but I personally will make a really small bet on Jokerit to qualify (Odds – 1.77).
Well, that’s it for now. I don’t really want to bet on any of the 1st day matches, but on the 2nd we are definitely in. I will try to post my picks every day around 4 pm EST and the 1st one will be soon. This post is, say, a kind of greetings to you from me. BOL to everyone!
submitted by Ratmir999 to sportsbook [link] [comments]
Evo Guide - Jan 12th
submitted by Thierry98 to NHLHUT [link] [comments]
So hey, sorry for creating another discussion on the same topic, but it was to make it cleaner, I finished all the EVO cards, so here it goes ! Which EVO card I should acquire? How's that EVO card? Those are questions we see a lot, and I decided to create a little guide that could help you. In this guide, I will attribute a grade on 10. The higher the grade is, better the card is investment wise.
I warn you, I'm pretty hard on cards that are higher than 350K. I can't see those card being good investment. They might me safe investment, but you invest a lot of your capital in one card when you could invest it in 2-3-4 cards with similar upsides.
I evaluate the investment grade on the money you could get by re-selling the card AND on the potential of the card as a usable player on your squade.
I will try to update the list once a week, but I won't update all the EVO. The updates will be written in bold. Because of that, some cards like Ovechkin or Guentzel might have the same description for months... and there is a reason for that.
For the price of the cards, I'm using brianstormed Auction House Prices (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fMfRLGawWMxTBn4lznogNV08ko0W-xKzMTvlaXucjiA/edit#gid=1260050322), a pretty usefull tool if you don't already use it.
I'm not an expert, I took bad decision in the past when it comes to EVO. You will probably disagree with a lot of things, don't hesitate to comment so we can have a discussion, I will try to help you the best I can.
Also, I didn't bother doing the goaltender. The Vezina race for me is not clear and I'm an awful analyst for goaltenders... maybe later... but here's a tip: never spend too much money on a goaltender.
LW - A. Ovechkin - 97OVR - 900K - 0/10
Ovechkin is already 97 of overall with most of his important stats maxed out. If you need his synergies, I could see why you would aquire him, but there is definitely better options out there. His informs are way cheaper and will give you a similar result. So even when he'll reach 99OVR, I don't see him getting that much better and I don't see his value increasing that much, meaning that from an investing point of view, at that price, it's not worth it.
C - C. McDavid - 95OVR - 980K - 0/10
The poster boy will reach 99OVR eventually and he's already a beast of a card. But like Ovi, his auction house price is way too high to get a great return if you sell him back. If what you want is investing on a potential 99OVR player, he could be an option, but there is cheaper options out there, although more risky. In fact, for few 100k more, you could get Jagr or Iginla so... I would say to stay away from him.
C - S. Crosby - 95OVR - 850K - 2/10
I could write almost the same thing I wrote for McDavid, the exception being he's a little bit cheaper. Also, because his stats are a little bit more well distributed, he's an all-around better player so he's potentially the best option for an 99OVR outside of Brodeur, Iginla and Jagr. And that's coming from a big hater of the guy. So I guess, if you're rich... it's okay to acquire him but again, very expensive, informs will always be cheaper.
C - N. MacKinnon - 95OVR - 600k - 5/10
Nathan MacKinnon woke up and he's tearing everything up! If he continues like that, the potential of him getting 99OVR is real and make his card interesting for 600K. Personnaly, I still believe it's still too expensive, but at 600K, it's still and interesting investment. If he gets one more upgrade, I could see his value jump heavily and therefore, you could make a very interesting profit. If your plan is to keep the players, again, there is cheaper options out there.
RD - E. Karlsson - 95OVR - 950K - 0/10
Karlsson will definitely be the best defenseman in the game, he's physicality being the only point where he won't be awsome, but still higher than average. 950k is too expensive though to make a profit when you re-sell and informs are way cheaper for a similar result.
RW - N. Kucherov - 95OVR - 965K - 0/10
Kucherov already has most of his important stats maxed out. In fact, his 94 ICE card is already overpowered for a fraction of the price. And it goes without saying that 950k is too expensive to make any profit on re-selling the card.
C - S. Stamkos - 94OVR - 730K - 0/10
Even if Stamkos is almost a lock for a team of the year and therefore, will probably be 99OVR, like Kucherov, most of his important stats are maxed out. In fact, his 94 ICE card is already overpowered for a fraction of the price. And opposed to MacKinnon situation, 730K is too expensive to make any significant profit on re-selling the card.
LD - V. Hedman - 94OVR - 650K - 2/5
Hedman is a beast defensively and a very capable offensive defenseman if needed. EA loves him so far so I wouldn't be scared to bet money on his odds of making a team of the year. With his injury, his value dropped significantly so wait a week or two and buy when it's pretty low. Even by missing 6 weeks, I'm confident he'll have upgrades and he's already a fantastic player at 94.
RW - P. Kane - 94OVR - 750K - 0/10
I know that I'm repeating myself, but 750K is too expensive to make any significant profit on re-selling the card. Informs will do.
C - J. Tavares - 93OVR - 540K - 5/10
540K is expensive, but for a 93OVR player that has the potential to have a high OVR in a team of the year, it's almost cheap. He's on a good pace and if he continues like this, this card will be very interesting. The reason why this card is so cheap is probably due to Tavares' speed. 89 of speed and acceleration is pretty sad for a high end card. So if he reached a high overall, don't expect his card to be worth 1M, but I still beleive profit can be made out of this card. The problem is that the card is not that awsome and depending of your team, he will probably sit on your 3rd or 4th line for now, so it's still a lot of money for a bottom six center.
LW - B. Marchand - 93OVR - 245K - 10/10
Don't waste your time reading this, just go on the auction house and buy one before it's too late. I can't understand why he's so cheap. I thought after jumping at 93OVR, his price would jump violently, but no... for now. It's only a question of time before is goes up so you'll be able to cash in. And if you simply want to have a good player, it works too. He's a well rounded player, a lock on a team of the year... no, really, Marchand is a no brainer at that price.
LW - J. Gaudreau - 93OVR - 265K - 8/10
I was also suprised to see Gaudreau so low. I don't know what his price was months ago, my theory is that he slowed down a little bit as a player... but he's still a top scorer in the league and going at it recently. A player like Gaudreau can get a Prime Time card every game, you just never know. There's also potential for a team of the year. Of course, he's also a very good card, although he's very week and can be destroyed easily if you're not careful... but you can use that at your advantage. The reason why he's not a 10/10 is that he's not neceserly a lock for a team of the year and that his ICE card has most of his important stats maxed up so it's a cheap alternative if all you're looking for is a good winger.
RW - B. Wheeler - 93OVR - 290K - 10/10
Again, a head scrather here. Like Marchand, jump on the auction house and buy him as soon as possible. You can get him for less than 300K and he's amongsts the point leaders right now, if he continues like this, I don't see him not getting a team of the year nod. The only explanations I have for his low price is the fact he didn't receive an inform since his ICE card and that his stats don't look that sexy. But Wheeler is a well-rounder player and everytime he'll upgrade, he'll become and even more complete player. Also, he's a huge guy, flawless defensively... again, if you have the money, it's a no brainer.
C - M. Scheifele - 92OVR - 180K - 4/10
Interesting case here. Sheifele was a point-per-game player before his injury, which is good. But because of his injury, his price dramaticaly dropped. 180K for a 92 EVO card is pretty good. He's suppose to come back in February where he could rack some points but with Wheeler getting a team of the year nod and Ehlers potentially getting a young guns team of the year, I don't see Scheifeler increasing a lot. That being said, he could receive special cards during the playoffs and Prime Time is not out of question, after all, the price is cheap! But you will have to wait a lot.
C - P. Bergeron - 92OVR - 500K - 7/10
Usually, I don't give 3s when the card is higher than 350K but in Bergeron's case, I'm happy to make an exception. He is a lock for the defensive team of the year. Also, his stats are well distributed which means that his advanced stats are juicy and makes him a well-rounder player. But even more importantly, he's a centerman with a killer faceoff rating.
RD - D. Doughty - 92OVR - 650K - 5/10
Doughty is having a good season and his card is really good, so it explains the price. That being said, it's pretty expensive. Profit can be made out of this, but it's a lot of money. But if you want to keep him in your line-up, he's a beast, so it won't hurt you to be patient.
RD - P.K. Subban - 92OVR - 350K - 9/10
He's not as a no brainer as Wheeler and Marchand, but he's pretty close. Subban is a popular player, if you don't act soon, his price will raise significantly. After a slow start, Subban is amongst the best pointer on the blue line. With his popularity, I could see him getting a nod for offensive team of the year. He's not the best defenseman, but his stats are well rounded so he has the potential to be unstoppable. If you have the money, I think it's a safe bet!
RW - V. Tarasenko - 92OVR - 300K - 8/10
I love Tarasenko, I'm a huge Blues fan and this card is killer. He's on pace to have the best year of his career and he got a team of the year nod for less than that last year. The Blues have a hard time right now, so his productions is not as great, but it's still there. When Schwartz will be back though... I could see him being snobbed, but I believe. I'm biased though, him being my favourite player.
C - Claude Giroux - 92OVR - 650K - 5/10
Claude is an amazing card. But his price is ridiculous. But like Bergeron, if you want to wait and get a stronge centerman at the dot, you won't be disapointed but you will pay the price. If investing is what you're looking for, it could be an interesting option, I see that card gaining value, but again, it's very expensive.
RD - B. Burns - 92OVR - 370K - 7/10
Burns is roaring back, EA loves him, he's getting more informs now... this guy is going nowhere but up. The price is not too high. The only problem with Burns, is that his Master Collectible Player is so good, that I don't see using his EVO card until he reached 95-96OVR. Ok, I might be exagerating here, but that's how much good that card is. But, if what you're looking for is making a profit, I think it will pay off eventually.
C - A. Kopitar - 92OVR - 270K - 6/10
Kopitar is having a killer year. This card is a cheaper version of Tavares and could see a similar increase in rate and price. But like Tavares, Kopitar is very slow and because of that, I could see him not gaining that much value. But at 270K, it's definitely worth it, I don't see him losing value anytime soon. But if you only have 350K to invest, Kopitar is not the first card I would work on.
C - J. Eichel - 92OVR - 190K - 9/10
Eichel's card is money, litteraly and figuratively. Such a great card. He's so cheap, it's ridicoulus. Playing on the Sabres roster, his stats are suffering. But it's almost a miracle that he's almost a point-per-game player right now. I can't say I'm 100% sure he'll be on a team of the year roster, but he's young, so we never know. At that price, I don't see why you wouldn't take this tiny chance. Also, he's right handed... you never have enough of those.
C - Tyler Seguin - 92OVR - 380K - 5/10
People might disagree, but I don't think we'll see many upgrades for Seguin in the future. He's having a good year though, so I'm probably wrong. His card is amazing though, but you can always use informs if needed. The price is definitely high for a card that I consider not having that much upside, but I must be the only one to think that so don't take my word for it.
RD - J. Klingberg - 92OVR - 400K - 6/10
He just got out and he's pretty expensive. He's the best pointer at the blue line, he seems to be a lock for offensive team of the year. 400K, while it's a lot, could give you way more enventually because that card will get better, much better.
LW - J. Benn - 91OVR - 200K - 5/10
Benn is a good card, well-rounded. Also, he received his fair share of love from EA with some team of the week informs here and there. He definitely has the upside to receive some other informs, but being under a point-per-game, I don't see him getting a team of the year nod. The price is fair, the value is solid, but in terms of investment, it's not the best deal.
C - E. Malkin - 91OVR - 220K - 6/10
Ah, Malkin. I wanted to get him since he's released. But he kind of has a weird season. Right now, he's over a point-per-game and he's usually a lock for offensive team of the year, but I'm still not convinced. But it's Malkin... the guy can get a 5 points game anytime soon. His upside, for me, is interesting and he's not that expensive. It's a gamble, but I'd do it.
C - A. Barkov - 91OVR - 140K - 8/10
Barkov is almost a point-per-game, he's only 22 and a really gifted player offensively and defensively. I have a lot of faith in that card for all those reasons. No so long ago, he was under 100k, his price got higher recently... I'd go for it.
RW - B. Schenn - 91OVR - 150K - 4/10
I'm a Blues fan and I can't still believe his season. Since Schwartz injury, he slowed down. He was comfortably over a point-per-game no so long ago and now, he's dangerously declining. The price is defintely appealing but I see him having a hard second part of the year. He's not the first one I would invest in, but you never know.
C - L. Draisaitl - 91OVR - 110K - 5/10
It all depends on how EA will decide Young Guns Team Of The Year. Two years ago, it was U23. Last year, it was entry-level contract (which explains Panarin). Draisailt is young, but he's at his second professional contract. The Oilers are having a bad time and I'm afraid Draisaitl won't get that much love for the rest of the year and trust me, I wish I am wrong. He's the kind of card that you can hold onto if you already have it, but don't bother buying him if you don't have him.
C - A. Matthews - 91OVR - 260K - 8/10
Matthews can explode at any giving time. He's almost a lock for a team of the year. He could be cheaper I presume, but unless he gets injured again, I see a lot of potential in that card.
RW - P. Laine - 91OVR - 200K - 6/10
I'm getting insecure about that card. There's too many good players on the Jets roster, they won't be able to all get a spot on a team of the year. He's not having a bad season, but not the one we were expecting and last time I checked, he doesn't play with the best linemates. But he's crazy young on an entry-level contract so he's not a bad bet and like Matthews, he can have a crazy night that will help him a lot. His upsides are bigger than his downside, hold onto this card if you have it and considere acquiring it if you already have all the other cards I suggested.
RW - J. Voracek - 91OVR - 190K - 7/10
He's so close to receive a 8/10. The reason why is because I think EA will upgrade Giroux and won't give much love to Voracek, which is sad because he's such a good player. I mean, he's 8th right now in scoring in the NHL, that should mean something but I simply have a bad feeling because he's not as sexy as a Kane, Taranseko, Benn, all players producing less. But it's a coin flip and could very much be a terrific investment. Definitely consider it.
RW - P. Kessel - 91OVR - 350OVR - 8/10
What a year for Phil "Berger" The Thrill. In front of Crosby AND Maklin in points, his card is also sexy as hell RIGHT NOW. His price is fair and should be a good fit on your squad as of today, imagine with any upgrades and trust me, he'll receive his share.
LW - T. Hall - 90OVR - 180K - 8/10
What a card! He doesn't feel like a 90OVR at all. He's fast and can shoot from everywhere! Also, he's leading the Devils in points over a point-per-game, on pace to have his best season. Some players are doing better than him but I still believe that if he continue like this, he'll get on a team of the year. At this price, there is not much to lose.
LD - R. Josi - 90OVR - 200K - 2/10
Who doesn't like Josi? He's a great defenseman. EA always liked Josi. But right now, it's not his best season and I think Subban will get most of the love. I don't see so many infors for him, maybe for defensive team of the year? I don't know. I sold mine recently because I was not confident. There is so much better options out there.
C - W. Karlsson - 90OVR - 160K - 4/10
I still have to pinch myself when I look at the Golden Knights and the standing. Same goes with Karlsson. He's on pace for 72 points, way more than what I would have expecting him to get. But this pace, while being amazing for him and the Knights, is not that amazing compared to other players. Team of the year is not like the all-star games, they don't need one person from every team and if it was the case, it would be Marchessault. I could see him getting some Prime Time here and there, but starting at 90 is not that amazing. He's cheap though, but wouldn't be my priority.
C - N. Backstrom - 90OVR - 250K - 4/10
I love Backstrom, such an underated player. Statisticly though, he's having a sub-par season. I could see him getting a nod for defensive team of the year, but maybe not... 250K is a lot to pay for so little "guarantee".
C - D. Larkin - 89OVR - 90K - 4/10
Yes, he skates fast. That's about it. 90K is still expensive for his upsides. The only reason why he's not a 1/5 is the fact that the kid is only 21 years old, we never know, could be in Young Guns Team Of The Year! But there is so many kids doing better right now... I don't see it happening.
LD - S. Gostisbehere - 89OVR - 90K - 9/10
You don't have Ghost? Buy him now. And then, buy him again. And if you can, buy him three times. The guy is second in point-per-game ratio on the blue line and doesn't show any signs of fatigue. If he doesn't slow down significantly, he's a lock for Offensive Team Of The Year. Seriously, get him, at least once, for this price, it really is a joke.
LD - O. Ekman-Larsson - 89OVR - 90K - 0/10
What a sad season for the Coyotes, and that included Ekman-Larsson. He doesn't even crack the top 40 when it comes for point by defensmen. I don't see anything coming for him.
RW - J. Marchessault - 88OVR - 90K - 6/10
Marchessault is definitely an intriguing option. Over a point-per-game, he could be Vegas representative on a team of the year... even if there is not such a thing. The only thing I worry about when it comes to Marchessault is his consistency. Will he be able to keep the pace? I doubt it. But if he does, good things will happend to this card and for 90K, it's not a big gamble.
C - J. Toews - 88OVR - 85K - 1/10
I can't believe Toews received an inform. Terrible season. I've given him a 1/10 because I see EA putting him on Defensive Team Of The Year because, you know... EA.
RW - B. Boeser - 88OVR - 240K - 10/10
Boeser is the front runner for the Calder. Of course, there is still a lot of hockey to play, but he seems to be a lock for Young Guns Team Of The Year. He's also a well-rounded card, although not especially strong defensively. Nonetheless, if you get one, I think you'll be very happy.
D - Z. Werenski - 88OVR - 50K - 7/10
A sophomore slump for Werenski? Hmm, maybe a little bit, but he's still the best goal scorer at the blue line! Under 23 years old, he's defintely amongst the top 10. That could not be enough to be on the Young Guns Team Of The Year, but I'm willing to take the bet for only 50K.
C - R. Rakell - 88OVR - 45K - 0/10
Not much to say... good player, but not good enough to get significant upgrades, and he'll need a lof of them to be relevent. 45K might not be a lot, but there is not enough upside to even care.
C - R. Getzlaf - 87OVR - 100K - 6/10
Back from injury, Getzlaf is dominating, over a point-per-game and I don't see him slowing down. His price indicates that I'm not the only one noticing this, pretty expensive for a 87. The only problem, is that he starting from far at 87 and will need a lot of upgrades to be relevant. I still think you can cash in on the hype after 2 or 3 upgrades, but I wouldn't wait to long to sell back.
LD - R. McDonagh - 87OVR - 30K - 1/10
This card is not worth much for a reason. I don't see a lot of upsides. McDonagh is still very capable defensively so I guess he could be on a Defensive Team Of The Year? It's a long shot though.
LW - S. Aho - 87OVR - 30K - 8/10
The price is very low and Aho is currently having a very good stretch and if he's keeping the pace, I easily see him on the Young Guns Team Of The Year and at this price, only buying one should not hurt you.
Lw - J. Drouin - 87OVR - 20K - 0/10
The Habs are having a terrible year and so is Drouin. He won't be good enough to have a stint at Young Guns Team Of The Year, don't waste your money.
C - William Nylander - 87OVR - 110K - 3/10
I think it won't be a popular opinion because people love Nylander, but I don't think Nylander has a lot of upsides. Sure, he's young and he's having good moments right now, but I doubt he will have so many upgrades and like Getzlaf, he starting from 87 so it will take a lot of upgrades to become worth it.
C - J. Guentzel - 86OVR - 20K - 0/10
Underwhelming season for Guentzel to say the least. Only one upgrade and it was during pre-season if I recall... hey... don't bother.
NHL Slate Overview - 2/7/19 - 14 Games [!!!]
Slate Overview Matchup | Back-to-Back | Points | Goals per Game Average, Expected Goals per Game, Shooting Percentage, Corsi for Percentage, Shots per Game Average | Goals Against per Game Average, Expected Goals Against per Game, Save Percentage, Corsi Against Percentage | Powerplay Percentage, Penalty Kill Percentage | Games Played Over Last 2 Seasons, Wins, Goals, Ceiling, Floor, Average | Vegas Odds | Win Percentage | Projection (WIP) | OveUnder Expectation Special team stats have magically returned, though at this point in the season it’s worth looking into recent performance in these categories. Note: I wrote this yesterday and thought I’d have time to update throughout the day. Then I got slammed with work and the city got hit with an icestorm, so my kid is also home with me today. Hopefully something here is helpful to you because it’s not being updated afterward! submitted by breadispain to dfsports [link] [comments]
The all-star break and bye weeks are over and we’re back into it. I’m sure at least a few of you have missed me around here! I’ve been a lot busier and stressed lately in general, so I’m not sure how much longer I’ll be able to continue. I’m happy to see a few people posting in my absence at least. Most of last month was an extremely frustrating streak of multiple lineups a point or two below the cash line for me. Not even really bad decisions so much as bad luck really. Hopefully I have a good run for the rest of the season.
This used to be the time of year where you would have a clear idea of who was going to make the playoffs and could make a killing just betting on the dominant teams to destroy the lowliers fighting for the best draft pick. No longer. Not really, anyway. Apart the few that have broken away from the pack, those outside the playoff picture are battling hard to get into it and those hanging onto wildcards will be trying to tighten up and stay there. With only four points being the difference maker for almost half the league right now, there’s a lot of intense hockey to be played yet, not to mention what shake-ups will come later this month headed toward the trade deadline. Outside the Kings and Devils sans Hall, and probably whatever the hell happened to the Ducks, even the Sens, Red Wings and especially teams like the Panthers, Hawks and Oilers, continue to be at least DFS-relevant despite sitting at the bottom of the standings. There’s so much talent and the pace is faster than ever.
We have a massive 14 game slate with enough potential offense that you’re really going to have to hit the nail square on the head for a solid win tonight. My usual strategy for a slate this large is to either pick one line I think will do well and stack them in multiple lineups with whatever logically fits, or else narrow it down to five or six lines I like and stack every possible combination. I’ll likely go with the latter tonight, as there’s no clear standout here for me. Enough of my rambling, let’s get on with it. I’m not really sure what contests you’re looking at tonight, but Fanduel is just getting straight up greedy. The $1.11 Draftkings contest with a $1k prize could be interesting if you’re new to MME, maybe? [email protected]
: The Sabres decided to hit the blender in their last game, so I’d be leery of picking anything on their side in fear they’ll just be split up again. And why bother, really? The Hurricanes continue to top the charts for possession metrics and had a dominant shutout win vs the Penguins in their last game with McElhinney returning, who has just been so good for them. They’ve also won seven straight
against the Sabres. If there’s any reason to look Buffalo’s way, it’s that Carolina is also leading the league in shots and goes through bouts where they have difficulty scoring, so the Sabres options could make a high-risk but intriguing netminder if you have both a massive bankroll and set of testicles you’d like to throw around. [email protected]
: The Panthers have been an extremely frustrating team for me this year. I know management still thinks they’re in the playoff picture with the trade rumors that are being tossed around, they’re not exactly stacked
with talent but there’s no question they have a roster capable of lighting the lamp a handful of times every night. Yet, they’ve barely been averaging a goal a game in their last five and are sitting near the bottom of the league far out of the actual playoff picture. That’s totally dropped the salaries of FLA1 to be stackable with almost anything, which keeps bringing me back to them every night, and the Pens have
been middling about waiting for a healthy core and some jump to their step again. Maybe there’s even a narrative play here, considering the Brassard/Bjugstad/McCann/Sheahan trade that recently took place. Those aren’t exactly flashy names I’d like to plug into my roster though. It’s worth noting the Penguins are 6-1 in their last seven meetings and have scored four (or more!) here for the last three years and counting. What do I take away from all this? Neither of the top two lines have had trouble scoring against each other, and FLA1 in particular brings value to the table. I think there’s an argument to be made for either side, if not a game stack, really, but I’d lean harder on the Pens. [email protected]
: Even though they’ve cooled off considerably lately, Trotz still has to be a contender for coach of the year for turning an Islanders team that was something like deadlast in the league last season into a defensively strong playoff contender, despite
losing Tavares in the offseason. The Devils are still managing to win a few games here and there, but my god are their underlying numbers awful and they’ve already confirmed they’ll be sellers this year by trading Boyle. The Isles have won three straight here and I expect they’ll get the win tonight, but whether they face enough shots and manage a pristine GAA to warrant a goaltender pick, I’m not so certain. Likewise, though they’ve had a decent floor of three goals in their last four meetings, they haven’t been scoring lately. Is it possible NYI1 or NYI2 get 3+ concentrated tonight? Sure, but they don’t really have enough value to warrant a must-play stack, even though the Devils are bad. I’d likely lean toward the top line of the two, if I were to take either. NJD1 gets full powerplay correlation if you’re looking for an ultra-contrarian play, but that’s a poor reason to consider it an option really. [email protected]
: Hart seems like a lock for cash tonight, with the Flyers on an epic winning streak while playing at home. I expect he’ll see decent ownership, anyway. They’ve been allowing a lot of shots against, which gives him reasonable upside as well. The Flyers top six are still relatively affordable if that interests you, and appear to be snakebitten with an overall sub-average shooting percentage lately, so they’re due for some positive regression. Kopitar quietly has nine points in his last five games, but, like, why bother? A Kings stack seems even more contrarian than a Devils one tonight. [email protected]
: Despite riding a four game losing streak, the Avs have had an elite Corsi-for percentage over their last four games, while the Caps have been giving up a lot of high danger scoring chances. It’s not the best matchup on the road, but on a slate this large COL1 should
see lower ownership than usual. It’s just a matter of whether you see playoff-performance-Vezina-caliber Holtby or I-forgot-to-do-my-eye-exercises-and-I’m-constantly-screened-by-my-teammates Holtby playing tonight. The Caps have
won seven of the last eight meetings though, and with a solid floor of 3+ goals in six of their last seven, so the same argument applies to the other end, I suppose. Considering the salaries of either side’s top lines you’re really going to need them to go off in unison to make it worth it, but it’s not without possibility. [email protected]
: I don’t know if the nets are smaller in Finland, but Kotkaniemi still has more posts to his name than goals so far this year. His shots are finally
starting to see dividends though, but he doesn’t offer much in peripherals. Armia also gets a chance to play against his former team tonight and is priced at floor on Fanduel while also getting top powerplay and penalty killing duties. You could do worse for a punt if you like narrative+peripherals+assist potential, anyway, or even a mini-stack if you’re looking at any 4-forward powerplays tonight or something. Underlying metrics point toward the Habs being the better team lately and they pass the eye test as a fan, but unquestionably the Jets top line could come in and stomp them, especially if there’s undisciplined play, since the PK has been terrible and the Jets possess a great powerplay. Montreal might be one of the only contrarian plays I can see actually panning out tonight, but that’s obvious homer bias showing and it’s always difficult to determine where
the goals are coming from too. [email protected]
(b): The Sens are traveling after the Leafs game and are the only team on a back-to-back tonight. I… I mean, a team is breaking a losing streak here: that’s noteworthy, I guess? Either goaltender is potentially in play simply because I’m not sure either team is capable of scoring a goal right now. There’s basically no goals here historically either and both these teams have simply been awful. The Sens have been slightly less awful, for what it’s worth. Best of luck to you if you’re targeting this game, my friend. You’re on your own really. [email protected]
: The Golden Knights have lost four of their last five games and the Red Wings are on a winning streak. I’m not sure what to make of this sorcery other than Detroit has been lucky capitalizing on their high danger chances and Vegas has had a rough schedule, though they did manage to beat the league-leading Lightning on the road their last game. Take note that Zykov is the new Pirri (for now). I expect to see a lot of him in cash lineups tonight. VGK2 remains the line for me here, consistently putting up points and with full powerplay correlation. (Remarkably reasonable salary, considering how long they’ve been doing it as well.) [email protected]
: This should be a great matchup. The Blues have been playing to their potential lately and Binnington has been solid in relief of Allen’s mediocrity. Of course there’s reason to have the Lightning in play any night, but anything of value on either side comes at a very high cost and I’m crossing my fingers and toes this one doesn’t get out of hand. Simply a virtue of being on the best team in the league and because he’s playing at home, I’d entertain Vasilevskiy in net tonight if you’re looking for a lower ownership pivot. I’m definitely not talking you off anything here if it interests you though. [email protected]
: This matchup doesn’t really scream goals to me at a glance, though both teams have been playing very well of late. Turris is back and NSH2 is basically guaranteed to be low ownership while offering high value tonight for your big salary stacks. They only go off a handful of games a year, but will get the favorable faceoffs on home ice. For the Stars, it seems they’ve actually found a top six that’s working for them at the moment that doesn’t involve loading up the top line. I’m a tiny
bit intrigued with both sides here, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a total bust fantasy-wise either. [email protected]
: The Oilers destroyed
the Wild in their last matchup and basically every goal ever scored by the Oilers is coming from one of two players, so I am looking at McDavid and Draisaitl here, even if they’re not playing on the same line tonight. Yes, the Oilers are on a losing streak and are basically ruined as a franchise because of terrible asset management and contracts and… well, those two players are always fantasy relevant regardless. The team is due for a smidgen of positive regression, at least in terms of converting scoring chances. Like, maybe right now they’re like Dyson-level sucking but could drop to a Hoover or so. The top six from Minnesota on home ice looks like great value if either line can net two correlated goals here, though they usually just make me angry while I’m throwing money into the toilet. [email protected]
: The Vancouver Canucks are in the playoff picture. Who saw that coming this year? I can’t wait to see what this team can do when Hughes is called up and Pettersson can grow facial hair. The Hawks have dropped five straight to the Canucks and allowed 4+ in those losses. I’m not sure how much weight I want to put on that considering the huge roster changes, that those goals came from all over the place, that Edler’s out, that the Canucks are on the road, etc. but I think there’s a good chance for goals on either side here, if you can figure out where they’re coming from. The top line from the Hawks has been insanely productive lately and Caggiula at least offers a bit of salary relief while Kane’s price tag skyrockets toward five figures. [email protected]
: This matchup scares me the most tonight, with both sides capable of causing some serious damage and neither particularly strong defensively. There’s no reasonable possibility of doing a gamestack here, but I can’t bring myself to avoid both sides of this if I’m going to make any effort tonight. This only gets more challenging if Karlsson returns. There are very few possibilities to get a full stack with Giordano or Burns involved, but I’ve already mentioned a couple and you’ll see me at the top if they go off. [email protected]
: I feel so bad for the Coyotes, they just cannot catch a break. Maybe next year is their year but for now it’s not looking good. Neither team have been great lately, but the Blue Jackets have won four of five here historically, for whatever that’s worth to you. If I really need some value, ARI1 is in a decent position and the least expensive top line in the NHL. It’s not really anything to get excited about, but the option is there and it will take little to pay themselves off. I’d be more interested in Columbus if Panarin is moved back to the top line, especially since Dubois has been possessed lately.
This is all likely too much to digest, so I’ll just reprise my original thoughts: there’s enough value tonight to pay up for the big lines from Colorado, Washington, Pittsburgh, Tampa, San Jose, Calgary, Winnipeg, Chicago, etc. and enough possibility for two moderately priced lines from, say, Montreal and Florida, to go off. Pick a strategy and run with it or you’ll go crazy on a slate this large. Best of luck! There’s a twelve game slate next Tuesday and an eleven game slate next Thursday. I’ll try to find the time to keep these coming but I make no guarantees. General NHL DFS Primer
Trouble making your stacks work and hate using an optimizer? Try my custom Fanduel and Draftkings Line Stacker
Wayback Wednesday - Howie's Heartbreak
submitted by react_and_respond to hockey [link] [comments]
Mitchell, Ontario isn't where a lot of interesting stories start. It's the kind of place where they roll the sidewalks up at dusk, a small, rural town.
The most interesting story from the town starts more than a century ago in the cold of January.
There are about 4,500 people who call Mitchell home. On this cold winter day, there aren't a lot of them out - the church on Main Street is empty and the raccoons and foxes who normally dart around are tucked away.
It's quiet, except for an occasional whoop from at the bottom of the hill. Some of the farmer kids are skating around on the river. It's called the Thames River - not the River Thames, the locals will have your hide if you call it that - but it's more of a creek. It's still wide enough for the youngsters to skate on.
There are three of them down there. One is about eight, a pipsqueak - the others are a few years older, much stronger. The trio are brothers, racing down the river on a day off from school. They play hockey from time to time, but there aren't any sticks or pucks on the Thames today. The boys are racing.
You'd figure the older brothers, Wilfred and Ezra, would be quicker, but the smaller one, the runt of the litter, has taken a lead. As they push around the bends of the Thames, the little brother slowly sneaks out of sight. He has an odd stride - he squats down and takes long sleek pushes - and it works well for him.
Around one bend, Wilfred and Ezra lose sight of their brother. They keep pushing. He's nowhere to be found.
Unsure of whether or not the little one is still going, the boys keep skating downstream, hoping nothing bad has happened.
When they wind around the next bend in the river, they see their youngest brother, sitting on a snowbank, patiently waiting for them. He'd gotten so far ahead that he got bored, plopped down and took a seat.
He does this all the time. Nobody can keep up with him. It's getting a little old, honestly - and if there are two people who are most tired of it, it's Wilfred and Ezra Morenz.
Little Howie is already the fastest skater in town.
He's destined for great things. Howie was born in Mitchell back in 1902, the youngest of six kids. He grew up on the Thames, on occasion picking up a stick and puck when beating his brothers in races got old.
For some reason, when he first played hockey, a coach put him in goal. Bad idea - he gave up 21 goals. The next game that coach decided to put him out as a rover. That decision paid off. As a teenager, Morenz led the Mitchell team to a regional title.
The Morenzs left town in his teens when his dad got a job at the Canadian National Railways (CNR) factory in Stratford, about 15 kilometres down the road. World War I had just broken out and Howie tried enlisting, but when recruiters found out he was just 15, that dream died fast.
Howie dropped out of school to work with his dad in the CNR factory. He started a machinist's apprenticeship there and filled his spare time with little hobbies, betting on horses and playing the ukulele. During the winter, however, the betting slips went away and the uke went in the corner - it was hockey time.
Howie used that odd stride and an all-consuming passion to become Stratford's best player. He played with the local junior team, leading them to a provincial title and nearly winning a Memorial Cup. Then, the next season, Howie played for both the junior and senior teams at the same time. He led both leagues in goals, assists, points and penalty minutes.
In 1922, Howie jumped on the train to Montreal for a CNR tournament. In the first game, fresh off the rails, he strapped on those skates and blew the roof off - he scored nine times.
Someone watching the game called a friend - Leo Dandurand, the owner of the Montreal Canadiens. The little farmer kid has some skill, he says - come by and see for yourself.
Dandurand sneaks into the next game and is impressed. He wants Howie on the Habs.
It wouldn't be easy, though. Morenz wanted to head back to Stratford and finish his apprenticeship. That would take two more years. The Toronto St. Pats, the Habs' chief rival, had also gotten wind of Howie and wanted to see him in their green and white sweaters.
For the first time, Leo Dandurand began to bully Howie Morenz. He mailed him a contract offer - $3,500 a year and a $1,000 signing bonus.
Dandurand made a public show of trying to woo Howie, claiming that Morenz was French Canadian and therefore belonged on the Habs, not the St. Pats.
Is Howie French? No. That was a lie. The Morenzs were German, but Dandurand would do anything to have this kid on his team.
At that point, 21-year-old Howie was torn. He and his father signed the contract, but before sending it to Dandurand, Howie got cold feet. Some local businessmen ponied up $1,000 to convince him to stay and play for Stratford. He also wanted to finish his apprenticeship.
Instead of sending the contract back, Morenz sent his signing bonus cheque to Dandurand, along with a letter saying he couldn't play with Montreal.
Enraged, Dandurand summoned Howie to Montreal to explain to him personally why he wouldn't sign. Howie hopped on the train. When he met with Dandurand, he explained his logic, bursting into tears halfway through.
Seeing some vulnerability, Dandurand leaned into the "bad cop" role, telling Howie if he couldn't play for the Habs, he'd make sure he couldn't play - period.
Morenz had to fold. He signed.
You see, there was a good reason why Morenz was torn. A farmer boy in the big city, an English speaker on a majority French team, Morenz would stick out.
Perhaps the biggest reason is one that most history books leave out.
When Howie played hockey, he was happy. Off the ice, the troubles of life hit him like one of the trains he worked on. Whenever his teams lost, Morenz would stay up all night, blaming himself and telegraphing plays that went wrong in his head again and again. This wasn't competitiveness - this bordered on mental illness. That ran in his family.
In his teen years, Howie came home from a hockey game to find out a shocking accident had happened. That night, his mother had gone downstairs and fallen in the family's cistern.
She had drowned. Nobody talked about it much, but scuttlebutt around the town was that it wasn't an accident.
His mom's death affected Howie greatly and made him to two things - to play hockey as a distraction and look after his family.
When Howie had any free time to just think, he'd get lost in his head. Sometimes, he had a hard time getting out.
Howie Morenz first suited up for the Canadiens in 1923. The team was coached by Dandurand, who put Morenz on a line with another young star, Aurele Joliat. The two gelled on the ice. It helped that Joliat, who grew up in Ottawa, was one of the few players on the team who spoke fluent English and French.
Riding the skill of Joliat and Morenz, the Habs finished in second in the four-team NHL, earning a spot in the league final against Ottawa. There, Morenz took control, scoring three of the Habs' five goals in the two-game series, which ended with a Montreal win.
From there, the Habs headed to the Stanley Cup playoff - at this point, the NHL champ faced off against champions from other leagues to determine who won the Cup. In order to win, the Canadiens would have to win two series - one against Calgary, one against Vancouver.
The Habs topped Vancouver, setting up a two-game winner-take-all series with the Calgary Tigers. Morenz scored a hat-trick against Calgary in game one, then added another goal in game two before a big hit broke his collarbone.
It was enough. Morenz had scored four goals by himself - Calgary only scored one. Paced by Howie's goals, the Habs won their first-ever Stanley Cup as an NHL team.
Morenz's play started to earn himself a reputation. When writer Hugh MacLennan saw him play, he noticed the little grin that peeped out when Howie played.
"The little smile on his lips showed that he was having a wonderful time." Howie was playing with courage, and it couldn't come at a better time.
The next year, Morenz scored 28 goals and led the Habs to another NHL title. The team finished just short of the Stanley Cup, but that reputation started to build. Some people took to calling him by nicknames. A few looked at his birthplace to call him the "Mitchell Meteor", while the more popular name came from the Montreal papers themselves, who used his adopted hometown - the "Stratford Streak".
Morenz became hockey's first legitimate superstar. One rival player called him "that near-perfect human hockey machine". Eddie Shore, famous crotchety hardass defenseman from the archrival Bruins, called Morenz the "Babe Ruth of Hockey."
That term drew some objection from a new friend of Howie's - Babe Ruth himself. He thought Morenz was bigger than that. Babe Ruth once said Morenz had the biggest heart of anyone he'd ever known.
Morenz tallied 25 goals in 1926-27, and then became the first NHLer ever to score 50 points in a season the next year. He was doing things people didn't think were possible - all while flashing that grin.
It seemed like hits couldn't affect him. From time to time, when he saw two players converging on him, he used his foot speed to dodge both and make them crash into each other.
In 1929-30, Morenz scored 40 goals and became the NHL's first-ever three-time Hart Trophy winner.
Businessmen saw him play - and the crowds that showed up when the Habs were in town - and wanted to get in the game. One of them, Boston grocery store magnate Charles Adams, was so inspired after watching Morenz that he filed to start an expansion team in Boston. That team became the Bruins.
In 1930, those Bruins would make it to their third Stanley Cup final. Unfortunately, they did it against the Habs, who beat them soundly - with Morenz scoring what turned out to be the Cup-winning goal.
The Habs with Morenz were such a draw that they played the new team in New York, the Americans, in their first game, and drew a capacity crowd. The new team's owners personally requested that they play the Habs. Later in 1930, Morenz scored five goals against them.
Another businessman, Tex Rickard, saw that and had a vision for hockey in Madison Square Garden. Not long after that, the Rangers materialized.
Finally, in 1933, Morenz hit the pinnacle. He scored his 249th goal in the NHL - breaking the all-time record.
All was good for the kid from Stratford.
Then came 1934.
Two days after New Years', Morenz was playing against the Rangers in New York and fell awkwardly. He twisted his ankle, tore a ligament in his leg and bruised a bone. He couldn't play for a month, and when he did, he wasn't nearly as fast.
If there's one thing that's been proven time and time again over the years, it's that Montreal Canadiens fans may be the most bipolar bunch in sports. If you succeed and all is well, you're a demigod. If your play drops, you're scum and should be moved for a bag of pucks.
Fans booed Morenz during games. Newspaper columnists called for him to be traded.
Suddenly, big superstar Howie Morenz was back to being Howie from Stratford. He retreated back into his own world. He began overanalyzing his play and overthinking things. He lost sleep. He made it to the NHL's first-ever All-Star Game - a benefit game for Maple Leaf Ace Bailey, who had sustained a career-ending injury - but that didn't help.
His play got worse. Much worse.
Morenz broke his thumb, right after his ankle and leg had healed. At one point, a burglar broke into the home of Morenz and his family. The invader found Morenz and pistol-whipped him before taking valuables and fleeing into the night.
That definitely didn't help. His play dropped even more.
The fans kept booing and the headlines kept coming. When Morenz finished up with some games, he would head to his spot in the dressing room and break into uncontrollable sobbing.
Then, the character assassination started coming from the Habs front office itself. His new coach, Habs great Newsy Lalonde, told reporters he didn't like Morenz. When Howie was asked, he said he would never leave to play for another team. When he asked Dandurand or Habs co-owner Joe Cattarinich what was happening, neither would talk with him.
Finally, the unimaginable happened. Morenz was traded.
Howie would be going to Chicago, along with goalie Lorne Chabot and a defenseman, Marty Burke. The Habs didn't get a bag of pucks back, but that might have been more valuable than what they actually ended up with. Altogether, the three players the Habs got back played less than a hundred games with the Canadiens.
Heartbreak had come for Howie.
In Chicago, the same self-analysis that had hindered Morenz in Montreal hit him hard. After a good start, Howie ended up on the bench. He was then traded again, to the Rangers - a team he had helped inspire the creation of. He stunk, getting six points in 19 games.
It looked like the good times were over. However, that offseason, hope jumped up again.
The Habs had re-hired Cecil Hart, the coach who had led the Habs during Howie's glory days. Hart agreed to the job, on one condition - the team had to reacquire Howie.
They bought his contract from New York. After an awful season spent in the US, Morenz was back in le bleu, blanc et rouge.
He wouldn't be the big guy anymore, but Howie got the chance to play for his old team once more. He jumped at it, getting to play with his old buddies, especially Aurele Joliat.
After returning to Montreal, the same fans that had run him out on a rail welcomed him back with hugs. With the love easy to find, Morenz got back in his groove. Working mostly as a playmaker and working to get his speed back, Morenz racked up 16 assists and 20 points in 30 games that season, much better than his numbers in Chicago or with the Rangers.
There was so much hope. The slate had been cleaned - carte blanche.
Then the lights went out.
January 28, 1937. The Habs are at home, playing Morenz's former team, the Black Hawks. It's the first period and Morenz is feeling good.
The puck is loose in the Hawks' zone. A pass is misfired and it ends up in the corner. Morenz, behind the net, gets in a footrace with Chicago defender Earl Siebert, who's coming in behind him. Morenz has a good chance of getting this puck.
Howie is back at full speed, just like back on the Thames River as a kid, when his left skate catches a rut in the ice.
His foot kicks up and the blade of his skate catches a piece of the boards, stopping quickly and wrenching Howie sideways. He falls down hard.
Meanwhile, Siebert doesn't have time to stop. He keeps barreling down on the puck. He can't dodge Howie - Howie can't dodge him.
They say you could have heard it in the very back of the Forum. Even if you couldn't, the screaming was clear.
Howie Morenz's left leg was shattered.
His teammates skate over and unhitch his skate from the boards. After a short conversation, they carry him to the bench.
Howie is strapped to a stretcher and taken to a nearby hospital. He has four separate breaks in his leg.
Nobody wants to say it, but it seems likely Howie Morenz has had his last hurrah.
Once he was in the hospital, the tone of the public shifted once more, from happiness and occasional anger to concern. The boos stopped altogether. People showered Howie with gifts and visited him at the hospital at all hours. His family were near him throughout the days, along with his teammates. Even opponents came to see him when they faced the Habs.
People brought him drinks to numb the pain. The joke at the time was, "The whisky was on the dresser and the beer was under the bed."
Howie's leg was kept in traction while the hubbub continued. After visiting hours, Morenz was left by himself.
The last thing that should have happened, happened - Howie Morenz, unable to do the thing he loved, with no one else around to distract him and unable to provide for his family and friends, crawled back inside his own head.
Sleep was rare for Howie. He'd spent most of the night reading the papers, religiously following how the Habs were doing. The team was dropping in the standings in his absence. Morenz blamed himself.
More and more, he felt like he would never play again. Hope disappeared. The future was bleak. Howie was in his own head, and he'd tunneled in there deep.
This time, it looked like he might not get out.
After Howie had been in the hospital for a month, something happened. We're not entirely sure what it was, more than eight decades later, but we do know that Morenz was despondent. Some whispered remembrances said he had trashed his hotel room.
The team doctor for the Habs came to visit and made a fast diagnosis. Howie Morenz had suffered a nervous breakdown.
Morenz was, at one point, put in a straitjacket. It was becoming more and more clear to him, each day, that he would never play hockey again.
The doctor banned almost all visitors from seeing Morenz and had security guards stationed outside during visiting hours. Only Howie's family and Canadiens personnel were allowed to see him. Howie's beloved father, who thought his son would be okay at first, got on the first train to Montreal.
Howie's wife and son came almost every day. When Howie's dad made it to Montreal, he almost never left. The new company may have helped Howie's mental state, but his medical condition was beginning to fail.
On March 8, Morenz said he was having chest pains. Doctors had told him he had a mild heart attack. It turned out not to be the full story - Morenz, stuck in bed for almost six weeks now, had developed blood clots in his damaged leg.
A doctor scheduled a heart surgery for later that day, but for some reason, it was delayed.
That night, Morenz took a turn for the worst. Howie's wife, dad and Coach Hart were all called to come and see him.
That night, the story goes, Morenz had tried to climb out of bed to go to the bathroom. In his struggle to get free, one of the clots lodged inside a blood vessel, blocking it.
Morenz fell on the floor.
Minutes later, his loved ones arrived.
There was nothing they could do. It was too late.
At the age of 34, the Stratford Streak had gone out.
Montreal was plunged into mourning after Howie died. Three days after his passing, a funeral mass was held at the Montreal Forum. The old barn could seat around 18,000 people - about three times that showed up. Radio stations broadcast the service live. Four of Howie's teammates and friends formed an honour guard near his casket.
One of them was Aurele Joliat, Morenz's close friend. Heartbroken, Joliat laid down a flower wreath shaped like Morenz's jersey number 7. Joliat won the Hart Trophy that year, but never had a season like that again. Later, this photo of him sitting in the dressing room next to Morenz’s equipment was taken.
When Howie was laid to rest, his son, Howie Jr., was near. He looked down into his father’s grave, shaken.
A few days after Howie's death, the Canadiens were due to play the Montreal Maroons, their cross-town rivals. The game was going to be cancelled until Morenz's wife Mary said they should continue. It's what Howie would want, she said.
Both teams wore black armbands and held two minutes of silence pre-game. In New York, the Rangers and Americans - two teams that may have never started in the first place without Morenz - did the same.
The NHL held a second All-Star game to raise money for the Morenz family, with a Habs/Maroons all-star team taking on the rest of the league. The Habs built a statue of Morenz and pledged to retire his number 7, saying only one player could ever use it again - Howie's son, Howie Morenz Jr.
Then, the dark side of Canadiens fandom came out. With his son now seen as a sort of successor to Howie's mantle, fans began to harass the Morenzs. At one point, people called the family home and threatened to kidnap Howie and his two siblings.
On top of that, without Howie Sr. around to provide for the family, money quickly ran short. The funds from the NHL charity game, instead of being directly to the family, were placed in a trust that couldn’t be accessed until Howie Jr. turned 25 - not very helpful when he was only eight. Mary couldn’t find work, and none of the kids were nearly old enough to have jobs.
The stress became too much to bear for Mary. She sent all three of her children to an orphanage for safekeeping. They stayed there until she remarried years later. One of the boys got sick and died while in the orphanage.
Once he was reunited with his mother, Howie Jr. took to the ice to attempt to live up to his family's name. He played in the minor leagues and had a tryout with the Habs in 1949 at age 22 - the same age his father was when he made his Montreal debut - but an eye condition stopped his NHL career before it started. He owned a string of businesses and passed away in 2015, age 88, having had only slight involvement with the team since.
Today, the Morenz family name lives on with Howie Morenz III. Instead of trying to live up to the pressure, Howie III actively avoided the hockey world.
Both Howie Jr. and Howie III have spent large amounts of their lives dissuading myths about their ancestor’s death. In a New York Times story written about his grandfather, Howie III told a reporter that his family doesn't believe the media story that circulated after Howie's death - that he had died, essentially, of a broken heart.
"The broken heart, we felt, was really a romantic way of implying he may have taken his own life," he said. That makes a lot of sense. After all, the blood clots were definitely enough to take down a man like Howie. But maybe, if there was more hope, if he hadn't been depressed, if there was a chance he could play again, would he have fought harder?
"We don't believe that at all."
We'll never know.
Howie Morenz was a lot of things. He was an idol, a star.
But deep down, somewhere, Howie Morenz was always that kid on the Thames River, hanging on to that feeling, the thing that produced what Hugh MacLennan called "the little smile on his lips."
Everything seemed so easy on the ice.
If you want to read more about the weird, forgotten or amazing bits of hockey history, visit our subreddit at /wayback_wednesday. You'll find dozens of articles just like this one.
If you'd like to write an article as part of this series, message me or the moderators of /wayback_wednesday. We're always glad to have extra hands on deck.
We'll be back soon with another article. If you have any ideas or information for later Wayback Wednesday posts or if you're interested in writing one, please don't hesitate to message us or comment below.
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