A place for redditors to discuss quantitative trading, statistical methods, econometrics, programming, implementation, automated strategies, and bounce ideas off each other for constructive criticism. Feel free to submit papers/links of things you find interesting.
Are China and India engaged in a cold economic and information war?
Note: This is resubmitted after making edits to better fit the quality requirements of this sub. While most media attention on China focuses on China’s relationship with the US, one player that rarely gets mentioned--at least in mainstream Western media--is India. In an October 2019 analysis by Deborah Brautigam that explored the origin of the term "debt trap diplomacy" for Chinese investments, she revealed the following:
On 23 January 2017, a Chinese debt-trap diplomacy meme was born in a think tank in northern India and was furthered by a paperwritten by two Harvard University graduate students who called it Chinese ‘debt book diplo-macy’.
A recent thread on china revealed some surprising data (non-academic, I know, but it's a good barometer for general sentiment on China as many of the more critical stories regarding China has first emerged on that sub, and then slowly propagated out towards more mainstream subs/media). Namely--by analyzing 449 tweets with the hashtag of #TweetforTaiwan, it found that 49% of the tweets originated from India. Most recently, Times of India has also advocated for Taiwan's participation in the WHO by interviewing the foreign minister of Taiwan--which has since drawn an official statement from the Chinese embassy in India. But most importantly, India has recently announced that it is setting aside nearly half a million hectares of land to entice foreign firms into leaving China. PM Modi has also emphasized that he had little desire for India to play second fiddle to China. While some can argue that this is due to him pandering to the Hindu nationalist base that makes up his supporters, it's not a statement to be taken lightly because the BJP--by taking a supermajority in the Indian Congress--is in a position to enact its policies at will without regard for the opposition.
The Trade Reality of India vis-a-vis the United States
The United States has actively sought bilateral and multilateral opportunities to increase access to India’s market, and the government of India has pursued ongoing economic reform efforts. Nevertheless, U.S. exporters continue to encounter significant tariff and nontariff barriers that impede imports of U.S. products into India.
Other points raised in the document:
India maintains very high tariffs on a number of goods--some as high as 150%.
India has increased tariffs in 2018 key U.S. exports in the agricultural, information and communications technology, and automobile parts sectors, with no warning or public consultation process.
India maintains several export subsidy programs to boost production in domestic sectors
India remains on the Priority Watch List due to weak protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights
The Indian government maintains strong ownership presence in major services industries such as banking and insurance.
Foreign investment in businesses in certain major services sectors, including financial services and retail, is subject to limitations on foreign equity.
The document goes on to list additional trade barriers that India has put up against the United States, and they are far too many to list here. But taken as a whole, the overall summary seems to be this: India--from a trade policy perspective--is not that much different or even that advantageous compared to China. Yet in the face of greater US-China economic rivalry, India has emerged as a seemingly viable alternative to China despite data suggesting the contrary. This is due to the major advantage India has over China, which I will discuss in the next section.
The Advantages India Holds Over China
ADVANTAGE 1: ONLINE PRESENCE The biggest advantage that India holds over China in an economic cold war has little to do with any underlying economic strength, nor does it have anything to do with how easy it is for foreign companies to enter India. Instead, the biggest advantage India has over China is its online presence in the Western internet. With 560 million internet users, India is the second largest online market after China. But unlike China, India’s internet is not locked behind a government imposed barrier. The lack of such a barrier has given rise to a sophisticated disinformation/propaganda arm for Indian political parties—most notably the BJP—on Western internet channels such as Twitter and Facebook. The Centre for International Governance Innovation think tank has done the following analysis of how the BJP’s propaganda arm makes use of Western social media to set the narrative: - The grassroots workers share hyperlocal information about development activities — for instance, a beneficiary getting access to services offered under a government scheme — and work done by their party with voters in their area. They click images and videos as proof and circulate to demonstrate that the party cares about local issues. - The party foot soldiers broadcast their mobilization efforts to their superiors in the party, earning praise and encouragement from the leadership. - The networked system allows the party command to centrally share information through the chain of WhatsApp groups being operated — bypassing the editorial filter of news media. - On Twitter, an army of online warriors takes part in the narrative-setting game. Even though Twitter usage is largely restricted to the country’s elites, journalists and influencers hang out on the micro-blogging platform, meaning the sentiment smoothly seeps into the wider information ecosystem. Basically, India has coopted the Western internet and used it to their advantage, while China has taken the approach of shutting out the Western internet altogether in favor of cultivating its own walled garden. This means that China's closed off internet ecosystem is incapable of effectively competing with India's online presence. Moreover, Chinese netizens who do manage to overcome the barriers can find themselves facing state suppression and persecution. This limits Chinese disinformation methods to either state media, or state-sanctioned individuals who often must be vetted for political loyalty before they are set loose. This level of political control and loyalty that China demands has severely limited its ability to project its message outside of the Chinese internet. The ability for India's different political parties to set the narrative gives India a crucial advantage when it comes to either spreading pro-Indian messages or smearing potential adversaries. ADVANTAGE 2: MAINTAINING A SUPPORTIVE DIASPORA Indian Americans maintain a high degree of connection to their motherland (for lack of a better term), and this data is supported by India being the top remittance-receiving country in 2018. While Chinese immigrants maintain a similar level of connection to their motherland (China ranks second after India in the top remittance-receiving countries in 2018 from the same Times of India report), a prevailing attitude of Chinese diaspora has been one of pride for their homeland but suspicion for the government:
Many overseas Chinese have shown pride in the considerable economic achievements China has made over the past four decades, allowing it to become the world’s second largest economy. On the other hand, they also harbour deep-rooted suspicion and disapproval of the party’s authoritarian approach and its intolerance towards dissent or media freedom. Hence, when talking politics, those overseas Chinese like to highlight that their love of country is in no way related to a love of the Communist Party.
As the CCP increasingly demand that supporting China be intertwined with supporting the CCP—a message that the party can control and foster only within its walled garden—it is more likely to drive overseas Chinese further away from supporting the party’s policies. In 2019, the "Howdy Modi" convention in Houston, Texas drew a crowd of 50,000. It's difficult to imagine a similar number of supporters if a CCP politician were to announce a similar trip. The popularity Indian politicians like Modi can expect in the West, coupled with an effective propaganda wing from within India that has a massive presence on social media to set the narrative gives India a tremendous advantage in maintaining a high degree of loyalty in its diaspora population. This diaspora can later prove to be a useful tool in advancing Indian foreign policy by amplifying the messages from within India. Disclaimer: this by no means implies that Hindu Indian Americans are acting as a fifth column to advance India's goals, but merely suggests that Hindu Indian Americans are likely to share and disseminate Indian propaganda--with or without realizing that they are doing so.
Can China Counter this?
In the current information war, China is losing. Badly. By building a caged garden, China's information warriors are largely clueless as to how to effectively spread their propaganda. Two examples come to mind. The first example was during the recent Hong Kong protests. China's attempt at controlling the narrative fell apart almost as quickly as it began, as many of its messages included support for party control, casting the protesters as Hong Kong independence provocateurs, or suggesting CIA influence rather than focusing on specific instances of targeted violence and xenophobic attacks on Mandarin speaking individuals (including attacks on Taiwanese media). Another example is how China has been incapable of finding a way to reduce the influence of Falun Gong media such as the Epoch Times and New Tang Dynasty TV in the West. These channels can operate unimpeded from Chinese state repression on the Western internet, and when China does try and respond to them, the results often come across as clumsy and ham-fisted because attempts at control tend to follow Chinese internet control strategies. However, from experience, China can ill afford to relax its internet controls: both the 2008 Tibetan protests and the 2009 Urumqi attacks were organized through Facebook. Relaxing internet controls would also see the internet, both within and without China, be flooded with Chinese nationalists--a faction that Beijing has simultaneously encouraged and suppressed depending on the needs of the state. If China were to go on the information war offensive against India to retain its economic advantage, it must take a two-pronged approach:
On the world stage, it would highlight the unfair trade practices of India to portray India in the same light as China in terms of negative trade practices.
Within India, it would find local partners to sow the idea that India will be treated the same way as China by the West once it has developed enough.
On highlighting the unfair trade practices of India: The advantage that China holds in this regard is that the world has already formed a negative opinion on Chinese trade practices, therefore creating a situation in which China only has something to lose if other countries can offer a more attractive alternative. By depriving the world of seeing India as a viable alternative, China can join in international pressure to force the Indian economy to open up further without giving India the opportunity to develop an industrial base capable of protecting its fledgling industries. In such a scenario, China would be able to leverage its massive industrial capability into India and gobble up local Indian partners, or otherwise choose to support companies that would adopt pro-China practices. In essence, by attacking India before it can build an effective industrial base, China can enact a a softer version of the colonialist methods that the British used to subjugate India in the 19th century. This may possibly explain why the term "debt trap diplomacy" first emerged from an Indian think tank. On Using Local Indian Partners to Sow Ideas: By partnering with local voices in India and sowing the idea that once India becomes developed enough, it would also face the same trade scrutiny that China has faced, China can attempt to pivot India away from developing friendlier ties to the West and return it towards its Non-Aligned status it adopted during the Cold War. However, these efforts can largely be stymied by government policy--and in fact, the Modi government has required that Chinese investment into India be approved first. There is still a lot of room for the rivalry and/or partnership between China and India to continue developing in this coming decade. But it's clear that at the current moment, India seems to have a distinctive advantage.
KFC6855/环球潮鞋: The Secrets of Replica Sneaker Selling
Following a post from u/donjonne about a HUGE Weibo story on how to actually start your own 1:1 repsneaker empire, I figured as a native Mandarin speaker I gave it a shot and translated the entire article, since I myself am pretty damn intrigued what the guy's speaking.Do note this article is written in March 2017, lots of stuff may have been outdated, and I translated word-for-word with some pruned paragraphs that seems like the fella repeating himself. I absolutely hate the weird flowery prose Mandarin always carry when I work on translations, so apologies if the in-jokes or general writing gets a bit dry. This is my personal tl;dr without the author's boastful claims, so if you're short on time, here's the quick rundown.
How do replica sneakers get sold?
Taobao: Long history with the reputation for being the single biggest online BST hub, with Tmall and Xianyu Second-hands integrated. Lots of fake reviews and seller reputation ratings. The rep game there got outta hand, CEO of Alibaba stepped in and cleaned house, thus everyone moved to... WeChat: Lots more convoluted, no proper tracking and confirmation like a real shopping app and build quality can vary greatly between sneaker models from the same seller. But through word-of-mouth, standout resellers get recommended more organically, of course you need connections to start with. Agents: Your best friend if you're overseas, usually ran by freelancers merely collecting orders, reporting back to resellers and have them directly ship your kicks to your doorstep. Agents can be a single person, or a huge operation i.e. Wegobuy and Ytaopal.
How's the quality tho?
Depends. Some will try to bait-and-switch, some will bond genuine friendships for simply being a return customer. Factories often cut corners to save some dough and end up with a worse rep, so like the purpose of this sub, dig into forums and guide yourself to trustworthy sellers. Author also goes on a tangent and revealed the numbers and figures of selling reps, along with the sheer gold rush he's in now. Read below for more info.
Anything of note?
We're getting ripped off. Real hard, if you're a Mainlander chances are you're being sold 1/3 of the prices we see here. Part of the reason is that the multi-level reselling jacks up the price a lot, so unless you're buying in bulk for the purpose of selling them, good luck finding GET-passable OW AJ1's for less than $70. If you get caught selling, it's fines upwards of ¥50,000 and your license revoked, but nothing too serious beyond that. Author promised more novel shoes get made in the future, like Uggs and non-hypebeast dress shoes or sumthin. With that outta the way, here's the translation for the whole article, hope you'll learn something for it and if there's any mistakes, feel free to point it out in DMs or just in the comments. EDIT 17/05/2020: punctuation mistakes and missing formatting, also thanks for the kind words repfam _______________
GOD'S HAND: The Secrets of Replica Sneaker Selling
Having been in the rep game for around 4 to 5 years, it all started out of sheer curiosity. I spent ¥1099 for Air Force 1's some celebrity wore, only to had my buddy show up on me with a fake pair of the same sneaker only costs ¥300. Not everyone is some rich parents' spoiled brat where a pair of shoes costing a couple grand is considered pocket change, yet everyone has that sense of envy, the need to follow the hype to really stand out from the crowd, so do I honestly. But then again you'd only wear that pair of grails for only a good couple months and it'll be out of the wave, why not I find myself a more wallet-friendly way to do so? Ever since dipping my toe into the replica community, I'm making connections, meeting new friends and getting scammed in every step I make, keeping contacts of my favorite sellers (looking back yeah they're not the best and cheapest isn't it huh). I'm deep in the rabbit hole now, buying so many pairs I'm starting to be able to tell batches at a glance, and where to hunt down that very best batch at the cheapest price. At this point it's natural that I'm thinking of selling these reps and becoming a middleman with the best of the batches under one roof (which is what's following below). Anyone who has dealt with middlemen know that actually tracking down the direct factory outlets are nigh impossible, and the multiple stages of middlemen-ception where bigger but more discreet resellers selling to more minor, smaller middlemen can only make one dream of the sheer profit you can make for being on the very top of the pyramid, that idea has only been a mere blip in my mind. There was once in a bar my fam hollered at me with "Yo you remember that John Doe went to Putian for two years? Dude gave up college and has been filthy stinkin' rich by now!" I was like bah it'll never work out for me, but with the summer break I'd worth giving it a shot and have John Doe on the line. And boy howdy, ain't he wildin' right now with his business. Some say every Nike you see there's 1/3 chance it's straight outta Putian, some say Nike's LC works by handling a pair of dumb shoes to an uninformed factory worker and have him say "fuck kinda shoes are these, looks cool I guess so it's legit?" The only way is to really tear down the whole sneaker and see the markings in UV, and once we're on the point where we can fake inside tags and its barcodes, ask yourself can call out fakes on feet? A promotion for \"discount\" NB's on Weibo Ever seen promos like these? It's what I saw on Weibo today, and you've seen one like it yourself did you? They all look good on the images and you'd be right that they're photos of the real deal, just that of course the shoes you actually get were reps, and for each pair profits are never above ¥100; I sell ya an NB for ¥165, I'd only make ¥50.
REPLICA SNEAKERS: HOW DO THEY GET SOLD?
TAOBAO Taobao has always been the single biggest hub for BST. Run by the faceless middlemen, sold by the page visits, and reviewed by the bots. And stores with inflated trust scores were used as a front, once costing hundreds of yuan to buy now go for the tens of thousands. As Taobao is taking action to curb counterfeits to make way for legitimate resellers, these fronts are getting more expensive by the day, since then people took it to WeChat later on. Ask anyone who ran a Taobao store, and they'd tell you "you'll never make a cent unless you're selling fakes". A pair of (fake) shoes take some ¥100 to make, and can be sold as a legit like the thousands of yuan you see on their listings, you'd get away with dozens of fakes sold this way, where you can properly guage and adjust said price to match your profit margins. Once the rep game got popular and the snowball kept rolling, the problem got too big for Ma Yun to not ignore it and he went full banhammer on every rep seller. With every media outlet roasting Taobao's ass, everyone wises up to the knowledge that almost every sneaker you see could be fakes. The stigma lived on, and no one would touch any store where its place of origin writes "Putian". When life gives you lemons, you make a whole damn lemonade stand and just circumvent the whole damn thing by appearing that you're not from Putian. Problem solved. As you check your shipping details, it always seems to travel from Shangai, Shenzen, Quanzhou or even goddamn Xiamen of all places, even overseas. Proxy services are very popular due to China's stringent laws When sneakers are labeled as being shipped from Hong Kong, of course the sellers gonna say "it's from Hong Kong" but in fact it's shipping from Shenzhen, and the seller's excuse is that the sneakers are going through HK's borders from Shenzen then to the buyer's location. Even if you bought fakes in Tmall however, it won't be as bad as the ones sold as legit retails in Taobao. There's just too many of these rip-offs anyway! Had a reseller came to me to buy 10 pairs of sneakers, I make ¥10 each pair, but he sold it as retails and went on to make ¥500 each. Of course I'd panicked a jacked a prices a bit so I could have my own slice of extra profit to ¥20 each pair, said the factories jacked the prices themselves as an excuse. Hoe's mad I guess WECHAT While profit margins are no higher than Taobao, they still range around a dozen yuan on bulk. For all the actual friends I have in WeChat, I'd never believe them not having owned a replica sneaker in their whole life, blah blah blah "factory direct", "wholesale prices" my ass, who really can head to the factories and buy direct these days? Rep resellers buying bulk from those factories are truly the "direct from factory" purchases. Resellers then selling the reps to middlemen and agents, that's another step. Said middlemen then resell these reps to quote-on-quote "middlemen". (NB: may have been the very resellers we see on the sub) And it goes on and on and then, to you, the customer.The so-called A-grade reps you see on WC, let's say we buy it from the factory at ¥200 (for example, the real deal won't be this cheap) and sell to the end-user for ¥400~¥500, it does in fact look decent. Heck, retails may get "called out" in forums and reps may sneak under the radar. Chat and forum opinions aren't good indicatiors for a rep's actual quality. Thus you may wonder why buy retails at this point? No one would really hit the New Balance outlets at their local Wanda mall and ask the teeny-bop promoter lady if their kicks are legit anyway, so wouldn't this been the dream job you've wanted, right? SMALL-TIME AGENTS These sort of agents are mostly handling orders from overseas to cater the westerners, mainly Russian, SE-Asian, North/South American countries etc., and will never be some solo project as they always come in groups of a few dozen staff members. These agent groups can also hire decently well-spoken college students to help converse customers in English and pay them good pocket change, which is eerily similar to how Forex scams work before, but this time they're doing legit businesses for a change. Sort of. FREELANCE AGENTS The most common agent you may come across can be your close friends, they get instant payouts for attracting their local classmates to collect orders for reps, and this wannabe hustler reports them back to the resellers to ship to school dorms directly.
REPLICA BUILD AND QUALITY
Replicas reach far, far and wide. You could see your neighborhood cleaner aunt wearing 990v4s, motorbike taxi riders wearing Duck Camo AM90's, your kind old uncle next door exercising in Flyknit Racers and so on. NB, Nike, Converse, Ascis, Kappa; any brand you wanted they got it. ¥100 to ¥500 is what the factories charge, but after it hits resellers with a ¥200 hike, the illusion what seems to be a shoe that'll last breaks down as it wears out after a few wears. Bad stitching? Poorly-tumbled faux-leather? Off-moulded shape? I'd believe you but you sure you can tell if the EVA is fake by just looking on it? Is the gluing pattern underneath it visible even? A good deal of local boutiques sell ¥120 replicas at official retail prices like ¥599, a good ¥400 profit. Putian factories are split into "heavy" and "light" industries. The heavy industries builds the sneaker as a whole from scratch, while the light industries were like CKD vehicles, where parts are purchased and assembled together instead. and quality of each part of the sneaker depends among factories. Lots of them try to cut corners to save every extra cent, which explains the decreasing quality of recent sneakers you see now. Larger factories has always been delivering consistently decent sneakers, as customers who contacted them are much picker and won't slash prices along with quality out of the blue. The stitching (and Nike Air units/Boost soles even!) is close enough to pass off as retails. Some of the more badass factories can make a batch of 100 brand new replicas for you, just hand in a donor retail pair and they'll get to work.The old dogs in Putian has been around for ages, runs most of the resellers you know and love. They buy reps from the factory direct at ¥140, sell to resellers at ¥160 and have the resellers push ¥180, at these prices the shoes are just not enough to satisfy demand. I've gave it an estimate if the factory got his order to 30 dozen pairs of reps, with each pair a ¥20 profit, we're looking at ¥7,000 a day or ¥20,000 a month in gross profit. Of course, the Sales and Commerce Assoc. will still take a heavy hand on counterfeit sneakers till today, basically a few sellers every month get caught in the counterfeit business. The offenders walk into the office, sit down, had "the talk" yet again and pay a good ¥30k~¥50k fine and had their licenses taken away, for just awhile. Factories themselves get raided very seldom, maybe a every 6 months only a single factory gets caught per year. Putian has become the leading worldwide repsneaker operation for the entire world, and outputs around 50% the actual worldwide sneaker market, an estimated ¥20bn yearly. The Nikes and Adidases you wear now has an "OEM" for that. You may have bought a brand sneaker [in China], but it may very well be a fake regardless, to be fair the quality itself is indistinguishable anyway.
1) The Standard Putian's cheapest offering, pretty much trash tier and a certain Taobao sells them the most often :^) 2) The GET Batch A huge improvement from the Standards, and the so-called 1:1 batch from the mouths of others. It's really not, some of the materials itself is not as fine or accurate as the real deal. Tmall often sells these batches, but often get sold as retails. 3) The 1:1 The absolute tip of the high-end replicas. Take it to HuPu.com and only the eagle-eyed few would call you out. Not everyone can get their hands on them, regardless of price. [eg: similar situation to UABat's Union AJ1's] 4) The Retail Nuff said, just retails. (But really, reps cost just 1/5 of the retail price, why bother lol?) A snapshot of KFC6855's wares
HOW TO TELL FAKES
[The author essentially details how to LC NB998's, so this is best skipped as it adds nothing to the article other than repeating the author's point over and over.]
THE REPSNEAKER FUTURE
If you ever think replica sneakers will only remain within the hypebeast sporty trainer radar, oh you'd be surprised. The replica factories are on full steam, churning out Dr. Martens, UGGS, Tod's and a lot more to come. If you're interested, my WeChat: KFC6855 has them on sale right now, guaranteed to keep ya comfy this winter. With all that said, I hope you learnt something from this, and now that you know if you really wanted a retail pair to sleep well at night, just don't get 'em in online stores. There's no glitz and glamor selling counterfeit sneakers, it's just business after all. If you know, you know.
I am a complete beginner,with no trading background or whatsoever.. Can I make 30-50$ a week,I am a independent college student,family doesnt back me up on anything except "Good Morning Hana" message everyday ..i just need a extra cash for food cause right now what I am eating is definitely not enough..im not aiming for thousands of dollars or anything...just 30-50$ a week is good... *i just open a Forex account with 100$ deposit..
So I started trading forex about a month ago using a signals provider despite all the 80% of people lose money I thought I was different. I had a great start, my $600 account was up to 1200, I of course had no risk management or anything of that sort and so within a few days I was down to 100 after thinking I could trade on my own. When my signals provider gave a signal to sell gold some time a few weeks ago I went all in and closed the trades with around $1000. I then proceeded to buy gold a cut that profit down to around a balance of $500. It was around this time I realised I should probably learn about what I’m doing before I lose the rest of my account. Fast forward to last week my account was at $0 due to my own bad trades but also a severe downswing on the signal providers side, who in my head could do no wrong after the initial profits. Then after a lot of research I set up an EA which over time seemed to have good profit and I completed with backtests for 2 months with great results. Confident I knew everything I put another $1000 in( as a student this is a lot to me) and let it off. I was trading the 4 pairs GBPUSD EURUSD AUDUSD and NZDUSD and the bot was on sell only mode. I activated it yesterday morning and closed the day with around $5 profit and $40 dd which all seemed swell to me. Fast forward to 40 minutes ago I woke up and I was down $700, after closing the trades for some unknown sleepy reason I decided to buy XAUUSD costing me another $160 despite being up on it at one point it came down and hit my stop loss. To make a long story short I’ve lost all but $140 of a $1600 investment because I think I know it all don’t use risk management or listen to the experts. I got what was coming to me, forex is not a get rich quick scheme and I know that now , pitty it’s a month and $1450 later when I could have just listened to every sensible person on the Internet
Guide to Stock Market (Trading in General) Mentoring/Mentorship Programs in the philippines
Hi, may nakikita akong questions about investing/trading and some about trading mentors/gurus societies etc. This is my opinion depende na sa inyo kung susundin nyo. ZFT - Zeefreaks tribe, First, i do respect "Zee" as a trader,his "tribe" teaches or mentors their students using their system to become their own. Generally, Darvas Box, MAs 20 50 100 and RSI are their weapons but mainly its the Price Action and RSI ang parang laman talaga ng System nila and you can only get better through time as with other systems in general. I think they are good, but yun na nga, just good. Problem: They charge you with a hefty sum na i don't think na ma jujustify nila, because at the end of the day more or less its you ( along with practice) and your psychology that can help you along the way. Okay, may Trading psych coach daw sila , si Ma'am Celeste (Zee's Gf) pero overtime you will learn about yourself in the process naman. Zee is justifying the hefty fee because sabi nya before if im not mistaken na the clients are not paying the mentoring alone pero along with it yung "CULTURE" ng ZFT. I say, bullshit. Di nga nya alam na may mga ZFT "mentors" na that are mentoring other people without his knowledge and charging them less but still a very hefty fee. hehe Akala nya wala na pero meron pa, magaling lang talaga magtago. KIDLAT- hmm , same with ZFT since dun din naman sya nanggaling, Habits you know. T3 ( The Tattooed Trader)- well, this guy is LEGIT. He trades international markets too not just PSEI. Reasonable Fee. Good guy,prangka din. He doesnt tolerate Bullshit. He wont try to impose his system sayo but instead encourages you to go with the process. That's it. Gandah Koh ( Trader's Lounge) - He/She provides free content daw. Yes, FREE content pero at the same time sinasabi nya that he/she is just an average trader. Kicks people who patronizes paid mentorship / who belong sa paid mentorship or kahit magtanong ka man lang ng about paid mentorship rage mode na agad tapos kick na agad. Yung mga followers nya ayaw lang talaga gumastos to learn premium content. Biruin nyo? gusto maging free yung investa? lol. Ironic, why? kasi sabi nya average trader lang daw sya but he/she shuts off people who would want to learn from those who are better than her. To all hehis followers, Eto po tanong ko.
may member ba sa Trader's lounge na consistently profitable na? with rising equity curve?
Do you think the best traders out there did not spend any cent to boost their career to the top?
Simple lang yan. isip isipin nyo. :D BOH- Superb! yung mga quant models nila ay one of the best if not the best. Very technical and systematic yung BOH and their team ay may credentials to back it up. Yung Fee ay affordable, kayang kaya ng ordinary working people. Oakbridge (DAVAO)- not much information about them kasi tahimik lang sila ,but what i know is that bigatin yung mentors dun but apart from that i don't know much kaya i can't say anything more. Bigote (bigote trading financial advocacy) - Eto yung free content na LEGIT. One of the best people i know, he is a caylum trading institute alumni. Eto, you use his system plus master price action. Open journal by Javi Medina, Matt flores, Ken Arcano - If you dig Elliot wave then they are the guys you want to learn from, the information they provide are all backtested, no guess works just pure juicy contents day in and day out. Trivia: They manage funds from various big time clients. Tomatrader, Jet mojica(from BOH), Joanne (from investa), Bearyo ( from investa) and etc Joined Open Journal. Javi Medina - ranked 1st the 2020 US investing competition, also he was an investacup champion. Ken Arcano - top 5 in investacup. Matt Flores- i dont know much about him though, silent kind of guy. OJ's system can be used in trading crypto, Forex , commodities, US stocks and other indices. Caylum Trading Institute - i think di na kailangan e describe pa yung caylum eh. *wink* So there you go. It's your choice kung how you will take my opinion, you can bash me or what i really don't care. At the end of the day, choice nyo pa rin yon. Kung ako lang, id go with
Read the trading code by jason cam.
Download any price action videos/books . Ex. Steve nison books
Try out Bigote's framework or enroll with any one of those services , but i would recommend open journal, BOH, T3 or caylum. If you want ZFT or kidlat then go for it.
At the end of the day, stick with one system , be patient, dont shortcut the process, master one setup at a time and improve your trading psychology. I dont want to spread hate, just spitting out my opinion. You can share this in fb, twitter or any socmed you like or not share this, do whatever you want. That's all. Stay home to help the frontliners.
Can traders who don’t scam help me understand the appeal of Forex?
Soon to be college freshman, and I’ve seen a large rise in Forex traders amongst high schoolers and college students around my age. Enough that it’s not surprising how easy it is to convince someone to start. They all say “ Get rich quick”, “Make a second income from your phone”, “I’ve been using Forex for “time period under a year”, and have been making more than your parents”. Literally everyone pushes a “ I’m making a shit ton of money and I just started image”, which is obscene to me. One thing about them is that they never show actual profit, or explain Forex enough so I can understand the appeal. Almost everyone say to join a class or group or something similar, then I found out there’s a fee to get in, and that apparently it’s some type of scam where those new traders try to enlist under people and get fees(200$+). None of the traders ever talk about failures in the process of achieving positives, or negatives/setbacks. Pretty much they make it sound like a perfect money maker For one, I can’t really believe this is a get rich quick scheme, especially for freshman college students I know who can barely save or handle their finances/allowance money. And if it was, then it would be way more popular, because then everyone would be rich as long as they joined the group. I haven’t met anyone who told me they studied on their own, but that they joined a group. I see pictures of seminars and group meetings, and advertisements to “join my Forex group”, with a older college student in front of a car wearing a nice outfit. Plus, if you’re actually skeptical, a lot of them get defensive or showcase a “ I’m smarter and you’ll wish you started this” type rant. Some say, “this is my only income, I don’t have even a part time job “ I’m not saying I doubt Forex value, but I doubt the narratives pushed , but I assume these teenagers don’t research as much as you guys regardless, so honestly were you guys really making extreme profit starting off? If not, when did you guys see extreme profit? If yes, how much research and time did you put in? Are the groups needed? Can you use this as a single income? I’ve just started getting into investing with a, make money for the long road instead of get rich quick. Is Forex more in that side?
17 Years Old | Confused ❓ | Lack Of Clarity | Need Help.
(Kindly Read Full Post) I don't know where to start... So I'm just a Middle-Class guy living in an aged type society (on basis of career selection)... In our society, there is no concept of Doing what you want.. You got only 2 3 choices either to become a doctor engineer or lawyer. But My Dad isn't one of them... He once said me you are free to choose any career you want... Now here arises the actual case... I used to be a bright student when I was in 9th and 10th grade... And the reason was absolutely clear, I had only one option to become A Doctor in future... I studied very hard always topped in the Exams and tests... My physics and Biology was too Good... I had an interest in Biology too... But then everything changed. When I passed 10th Examinations... I went to another city to do a specific course in physics which helped in 1st-year grade but at that Time I have Introduced to not a New Concept for me but that's when I took interest in it, ENTREPRENEURSHIP...... Yeah, that's right... And then I took significance interest in it... Researched about it ., Learned about the concepts of business and all that and once I messaged someone basically he was a forex trader I asked him to teach me about trading he said okay... But when I showed him my Business side he said why not if we start a Startup he said I have the money you got skills and need to polish you ... I was very happy I mean What else I wanted... I was getting the biggest opportunity so I said Yes and then Worked on our startup idea for months... I read so many books enrolled in courses etc... At that time I took admission in 1st grade where initially I performed very well then as I said I changed my path so I didn't pay much attention to the studies as I did in Our Startup... Time passes...cleared 11th grade 3 months ago... Results weren't that good my parents said where is your focus form many months... Not studying properly talking garbage all day about business ... And then form past 3 months I started to take my parents and siblings words seriously... What if they are right? What if I failed? What if that Man disowned me? I will not be able to clear the pre-medical entrance exam... Coz I'm not preparing for it... These thoughts worked as poison for me... I m not even studying nor even working on my startup... Well, let me clear Business is not my patience being a middle-class guy I want to Earn Money I want to Be Rich and Powerful I don't wanna live like my parents ... I want to do something at an early age... But I seriously don't know what to do sometimes I think just to say goodbye to My partner... And start Studying for Mbbs entrance test clear the test and become the good doctor and sometimes I think I'm never gonna be rich by working 9 5 same ordinary lifestyles just because I couldn't handle family pressure... Suggestions from You Guys Will be highly appreciated... If I'm wrong please 🙏 guide me...
While reasearching Epstein's known associates, an interesting individual stood out. Lynn Forester de Rothschild, Lady de Rothschild. No intention of this being a Rothschild Conspiracy. If your are uninterested to read the content below, scroll down to Comment to get my summary and take on this information. As always please Fact check this. (HJI) is a bi-partisan, transatlantic movement of business leaders, senior policy makers and academics focused on promoting a more Inclusive Capitalism. The HJI calls for international collaboration from businesses and other organizations to encourage the widest possible adoption of programs that improve capitalism as a driver of wellbeing for society. The HJI grew out of the Task Force project For Inclusive Capitalism, which sought solutions to the effects on society and business as a result of the global financial crisis of 2007 – 2008 and the dislocations caused by capitalism’s practice over the past 30 years. The Taskforce, which was co-chaired by Dominic Barton, Global Managing Director, McKinsey & Company, and Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild, CEO, El Rothschild, published its inaugural paper Towards a More Inclusive Capitalism in May 2012. The report sets out three pathways for business action that lie at the heart of the HJI’s mandate:
Education for employment: addressing the gap between employer needs and employee skills
Nurture start-ups and SMEs: mentoring small businesses and improving access to credit for them
Reform management and governance for the long term: replacing today’s focus on short term performance
The HJI exists to highlight and support businesses and other organizations working to promote the broadest possible adoption of best practices in these and other areas related to Inclusive Capitalism. The HJI believes there is an urgent and compelling demand for business to act to address the greatest systemic issues facing capitalism today. The HJI also believes that business is best positioned to lead innovations in areas that need them the most.
Scoop Jackson was convinced that there's no place for partisanship in foreign and defense policy. He used to say, 'In matters of national security, the best politics is no politics.' His sense of bipartisanship was not only natural and complete; it was courageous. He wanted to be President, but I think he must have known that his outspoken ideas on the security of the Nation would deprive him of the chance to be his party's nominee in 1972 and '76. Still, he would not cut his convictions to fit the prevailing style. I'm deeply proud, as he would have been, to have Jackson Democrats serve in my administration. I'm proud that some of them have found a home here.
Jackson was known as a hawkish Democrat. He was often criticized for his support for the Vietnam War and his close ties to the defense industries of his state. His proposal of Fort Lawton as a site for an anti-ballistic missile system was strongly opposed by local residents, and Jackson was forced to modify his position on the location of the site several times, but continued to support ABM development. American Indian rights activists who protested Jackson's plan to give Fort Lawton to Seattle, instead of returning it to local tribes, staged a sit-in. In the eventual compromise, most of Fort Lawton became Discovery Park), with 20 acres (8.1 ha) leased to United Indians of All Tribes, who opened the Daybreak Star Cultural Center there in 1977. Opponents derided him as "the Senator from Boeing" and a "whore for Boeing" because of his consistent support for additional military spending on weapons systems and accusations of wrongful contributions from the company; in 1965, 80% of Boeing's contracts were military. Jackson and Magnuson's campaigning for an expensive government supersonic transport plane project eventually failed. After his death, critics pointed to Jackson's support for Japanese American internment camps during World War II as a reason to protest the placement of his bust at the University of Washington.Jackson was both an enthusiastic defender of the evacuation and a staunch proponent of the campaign to keep the Japanese-Americans from returning to the Pacific Coast after the war.
Jackson Papers controversy
Senator Jackson's documents were donated to the University of Washington shortly after his death in 1983, and have been archived there ever since.When the materials were donated in 1983, university staff removed all information considered classified at the time.Additional materials were added to the collection until 1995. At some point, library staff discovered a classified document in the collection and sent it to the government for declassification. In response, in the summer of 2004, a man who identified himself as an employee of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) called the University of Washington asking to inspect Senator Jackson's archived documents housed there. He found a document labelled as classified and showed this to a librarian. In February 2005, 22 years after Jackson's death, a five-person team including staff of the CIA, Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, and the Information Security Oversight Office came to library to review all of Jackson's papers to remove anything still considered classified, or reclassified since then. The Department of Energy found nothing of concern, but the CIA blanked lines in about 20 papers and pulled 8 documents out of collection. As of 2018, some files in the collection are available only to those regarded by the library as "serious researchers", who must first sign a release not to divulge some of the information contained in the files.
The Henry Jackson Society
The society was founded on 11 March 2005 by academics and students at Cambridge, including Brendan Simms, Alan Mendoza, Gideon Mailer, James Rogers and Matthew Jamison. It organises meetings with speakers in the House of Commons. The society claims that it advocates an interventionist) foreign-policy that promotes human rights and reduces suffering, by both non-military and military methods, when appropriate. In 2006, the society worked to raise the profile of the Ahwazi Arabs of Iran, who it claims are currently being oppressed by the Iranian government. After originating within the University of Cambridge, the organisation is now based in London. In April 2011 the entire staff of another London think-tank, the Centre for Social Cohesion (which has since been dissolved), joined the Henry Jackson Society. The organisation is a registered charity in England and Wales and earns financial backing from private donations and grant-making organisations which support its work. The income of the society increased significantly from 2009 to 2014, from £98,000 to £1.6 million per year. In 2017 Hannah Stuart, one of the society's Research Fellows, released Islamist Terrorism: Analysis of Offences and Attacks in the UK (1998–2015), which profiled every individual convicted under terrorism legislation in the UK between those dates with an Islamist connection.
Structure and projects
The Society has produced a breadth of research reports and papers. These have mostly focused on Islamist extremist activity in the UK, crackdowns on human rights and democracy elsewhere, and various facets of foreign policy and defence.Its current workstreams include:
Asia Studies Centre. This Centre seeks to provide "an in-depth understanding of the structural shifts, regional complexities and historic tensions that exist alongside the tremendous economic and social growth that traditionally characterise the 'rise of Asia'."Publications include a paper on the possible outcomes of the negotiations with North Korea,and the need to safeguard critical national infrastructure in the West from vulnerabilities which may be built in by China.
Global Britain Programme. Focuses on "the need for an open, confident and expansive British geostrategic policy in the twenty-first century – drawing on the United Kingdom’s unique strengths not only as an advocate for liberalism and national democracy, but also as a custodian of both the European and international orders." This centre has published papers on what the European Union 'owes' the United Kingdom, as well as advocated for increased military spending by NATO members.
Russia & Eurasia Studies Centre. Researches domestic and foreign policy issues in Russia and the former Soviet states. In 2018 the Conservative) MP Bob Seely published a paper through this Centre which sought to define 'Contemporary Russian Conflict', and in which he accused the government of Vladimir Putin of pursuing KGB-style tactics.
Centre for the New Middle East. Established following the Arab Spring, the Society describes this Centre as "dedicated to monitoring political, ideological, and military and security developments across the Middle East and providing informed assessments of their wide-ranging implications". The Centre has released reports highly critical of Iran.
Centre on Radicalisation & Terrorism. Focuses on the threat to the United Kingdom and elsewhere by Islamist terrorism. Reports have ranged from analyses of the UK charitable sector to the way in which criminals utilise the darknet.
Student Rights. Created in 2009 "as a reaction to increasing political extremism and marginalisation of vulnerable students on campus". This project has tracked what it describes as "extreme" speakers on British university campuses.
In September 2018, the Society announced the creation of a new Centre for Social and Political Risk. This Centre will "identify, diagnose and propose solutions to threats to governance in liberal Western democracies", focusing on social cohesion and integration; freedom of speech and political correctness; demographic change; and other issues.
The think tank has been described by the media as having right-wing and neoconservative leanings, though it positions itself as non-partisan.In 2014, Nafeez Ahmed, an executive director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development, said that the Henry Jackson Society courts corporate, political power to advance a distinctly illiberal oil and gas agenda in the Middle East. In 2009 the society became the secretariat of two all-party parliamentary groups (APPGs), for Transatlantic and International Security, chaired by Gisela Stuart, and for Homeland Security, chaired by Bernard Jenkin. A transparency requirement upon non-profit organisations acting as secretariat at that time was that they must reveal, on request, any corporate donors who gave £5,000 or more to the organisation over the past year or cease acting as a secretariat organisation. In 2014, following a query, the society refused to disclose this information and resigned its position as secretariat of the APPGs concerned in order to comply with the Rules. The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, Kathryn Hudson, upheld a complaint against these APPGs on the grounds data had not been provided, but noted the society had already resigned its position and that the consequence of this non-provision therefore "appears to have taken effect" as the Rules intended. The case was therefore closed with no further action taken and the APPGs themselves dissolved with the dissolution of Parliament in March 2015. The APPG Rules were subsequently changed in March 2015 so that only those non-profit organisations providing services to APPGs of more than £12,500 in value needed to declare their corporate donors. In July 2014 the Henry Jackson Society was sued by Lady de Rothschild over funds of a "caring capitalism" summit. Lady de Rothschild claims that she has financed the summit and that HJS and its executive director Alan Mendoza are holding £137,000 of “surplus funds” from the conference that should be returned to the couple’s investment company EL Rothschild. Think tank discussions on the Middle East and Islam have led some media organisations to criticise a perceived anti-Muslim agenda. Marko Attila Hoare, a former senior member, cited related reasons for leaving the think tank and Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy was urged, in 2015, to sever his links with the society. According to the report published in 2015, "a right-wing politics is apparent not only in the ideas that the Henry Jackson Society promotes, but also emerges distinctly on examination of its funders." In 2017, the Henry Jackson Society was accused of running an anti-China propaganda campaign after the Japanese embassy gave them a monthly fee of 10,000 pounds.The campaign was said to be aimed at planting Japan's concerns about China in British newspapers. Co-founder Matthew Jamison wrote in 2017 that he was ashamed of his involvement, having never imagined the Henry Jackson Society "would become a far-right, deeply anti-Muslim racist [...] propaganda outfit to smear other cultures, religions and ethnic groups." "The HJS for many years has relentlessly demonised Muslims and Islam." In January 2019, Nikita Malik of the Henry Jackson Society provided The Daily Telegraph with information they claimed showed a Muslim scout leader was linked to Islamic extremists and Holocaust deniers.In January 2020 The Daily Telegraph issued a retraction and formal apology saying that: "the articles said that Ahammed Hussain had links to extremist Muslim Groups that promoted terrorism and anti-Semitism, and could have suggested that he supported those views and encouraged their dissemination. We now accept that this was wrong and that Mr Hussain has never supported or promoted terrorism, or been anti-Semitic.We acted in good faith on information received but we now accept that the article is defamatory of Mr Hussain and false, and apologise for the distress caused to him in publishing it. We have agreed to pay him damages and costs." The initial signatories of the statement of principles included:
This has been a rabbit hole and only half the story regarding Lady Forester. Then only link between Lady Forester and Jeffrey Epstein is In 1995, financier Lynn Forester discussed "Jeffrey Epstein and currency stabilization" with Clinton. Epstein, according to his own accounts, was heavily involved in the foreign exchange market and traded large amounts of currency in the unregulated forex market. I will post another story Lady Forester and the coalition for Inclusive Capitalism.
So I’m about to be a college freshman, and one thing I’ve seen get extremely popular between older high schoolers and college students is Forex. I assume it’s some investment tool, use your money to make more money while relaxing at home is the slogan I see from a lot of users I know.. The things is, they barely say anything about it besides “ come use it, you’re gonna be making bank”, and a lot of the users literally changed from normal social media post to only Forex awareness posts. Everyone I’m close to who uses it has a part time job minimum, so I assumed if you don’t have steady money there’s no point. But then there’s also a couple of people who said they don’t have a job that act like Forex is godsend, hilariously though they never show their actually money increase even though they brag about it. I know some people charge in the hundreds to get a step in to understanding, but I’ve also read it’s not mandatory. I assume it’s either a scam, or it’s a “high reward, easy failure” situation. I also assume a lot of people over exaggerate their wins and hid their losses. The thing is they all make it seem like once you’ve started , you’re guaranteed money. But if that was the case, I’d assume everyone would be using it since it’s so simple to make money from there. Can anyone explain Forex to me? Is it really a good tool for investments?
If you’re thinking about picking up trading from a place of financial desperation, stop.
Hopefully this will reach at least one person, a lot of folks have seen their 401ks nuked or just had their income cut close to zero. You look online for ways to make money at home and stumble across forex trading, an endeavor where 95% of traders fail in the long term and the liquidity of newbies is exploited to fill the orders of the more experienced. If you ever go in to trading with the mindset that you NEED to win the next few trades to pay off that next bill, consider the money already lost. A massive part of being successful in trading is mindset, as soon as desperation kicks in you force yourself to close your winners early and think letting your losing trades run is a good idea. When trading from desperation as a complete beginner, you typically follow the Dunning Krueger curve to the letter https://onlinepethealth-info.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Dunning-Kruger.jpg You have your euphoric high at the peak of mount stupid, and will quickly feel the crippling suffocation at the valley of despair. “You drank deep and you paid the price.” Then it’s time for you to climb the slope of enlightenment. However, the only tool in your toolset is your shovel that you use to get to the bottom of the pit of despair. If you insist on using what you only know as a beginner, that shovel will dig deeper than you were. I swear to god if you keep trading before you take the time to learn you’ll lose everything. It’s a slow climb, you aren’t ever going to get that high of paying your bills through your incredible, home brewed strategy and wits alone anytime in the next year unless you insist on degenerate gambling. You are not the outlier. Sit back, complete the entire babypips course, and don’t use any tool without being able to answer “what is the fundamental paradigm driving the efficacy of this tool?” Your desire for trading should stem from a passion for the art of the execution, not the desire for short term gains. You don’t buy a guitar and go street performing the first week. If you bought the guitar to make money, sure, you can once you master it. But if you head out your first week, you’re going to embarrass yourself find yourself in debt. Good luck! 95% of traders fail because they insist they have nothing left to learn no matter where they are on the Dunning Krueger Curve, which is a poor choice in a fluid and evolving market condition. A true master is an eternal student, you can do it, just don’t plan for profitability any time in the next year. Never trade with money you CAN’T AFFORD TO LOSE. THAT MEANS THE MONEY FOR NEXT MONTH’S BILLS. Go forth! Your 401k will be worth more five years from now than it was at the peak a few months ago. If you don’t have a genuine passion for trading, just wait it out!
Thoughts On The Market Series #1 - The New Normal?
Market Outlook: What to Make of This “New Normal”
By ****\* March 16, 2020 After an incredibly volatile week – which finished with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallying over 9% on Friday – I suppose my readers might expect me to be quite upbeat about the markets. Unfortunately, I persist in my overall pessimistic outlook for stocks, and for the economy in general. Friday’s rally essentially negated Thursday’s sell-off, but I don’t expect it to be the start of a sustained turnaround. We’re getting a taste of that this morning, with the Dow opening down around 7%. This selloff is coming on the back of an emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve of 100 basis points (to 0%-0.25%) on Sunday… along with the announcement of a new quantitative easing program of $700 billion. (I will write about this further over the next several days.) As I have been writing for many weeks, the financial bubble – which the Fed created by pumping trillions of dollars into the financial system – has popped. It will take some time for the bubble to deflate to sustainable levels. Today I’ll walk you through what’s going on in the markets and the economy… what I expect going forward and why… and what it means for us as traders. (You’ll see it’s not all bad news.)
Coronavirus’ Strain on the Global Economy
To start, let’s put things in perspective: This asset deflation was coming one way or another. Covid19 (or coronavirus) has simply accelerated the process. Major retailers are closing, tourism is getting crushed, universities and schools are sending students home, conventions, sporting events, concerts, and other public gatherings have been cancelled, banks and other financial service firms are going largely virtual, and there has been a massive loss of wealth. Restaurant data suggests that consumer demand is dropping sharply, and the global travel bans will only worsen the situation. Commercial real estate is another sector that looks particularly vulnerable. We are almost certain to see a very sharp and pronounced economic slowdown here in the United States, and elsewhere. In fact, I expect a drop of at least 5% of GDP over the next two quarters, which is quite severe by any standard. Sure, when this cycle is complete, there will be tremendous amounts of pent-up demand by consumers, but for the time being, the consumer is largely on the sidelines. Of course, the problems aren’t just in the U.S. China’s numbers look awful. In fact, the government there may have to “massage” their numbers a bit to show a positive GDP in the first quarter. Europe’s numbers will also look dreadful, and South Korea’s economy has been hit badly. All around the world, borders are being shut, all non-essential businesses are being closed, and people in multiple countries are facing a lockdown of historic proportions. The coronavirus is certainly having a powerful impact, and it looks certain that its impact will persist for a while. Consider global tourism. It added almost $9 trillion to the global economy in 2018, and roughly 320 million jobs. This market is in serious trouble. Fracking in the U.S. is another business sector that is in a desperate situation. Millions of jobs and tens of billions of loans are now in jeopardy. The derivative businesses that this sector supports will be likewise devastated as companies are forced to reduce their workforces or shut down due to the collapse in oil prices. This sector’s suffering will probably force banks to book some big losses despite attempts by the government to support this industry. In a similar way, the derivative businesses that are supported by the universities and colleges across America are going to really suffer. There are nearly 20 million students in colleges across the U.S. When they go home for spring vacation and do not return, the effect on the local businesses that colleges and university populations support will be devastating. What does this “new normal” mean going forward? Let’s take a look…
The new normal may become increasingly unpleasant for us. We need to be ready to hunker down for quite some time. Beyond that, the government needs to handle this crisis far better in the future. The level of stupidity associated with the massive throngs of people trapped in major airports yesterday, for example, was almost unimaginable. Instead of facilitating the reduction of social contact and halting the further spread of the coronavirus, the management of the crowds at the airports produced a perfect breeding ground for the spread of the virus. My guess is that more draconian travel restrictions will be implemented soon, matching to some extent the measures taken across Europe. This will in turn have a further dampening effect on economic activity in the U.S., putting more and more pressure on the Fed and the government to artificially support a rapidly weakening economy. Where does this end up? It is too early to say, but a very safe bet is that we will have some months of sharply negative growth. Too many sectors of the economy are going to take a hit to expect anything else. The Fed has already driven interest rates to zero. Will that help? Unlikely. In fact, as I mentioned at the beginning of this update, the markets are voting with a resounding NO. The businesses that are most affected by the current economic situation will still suffer. Quantitative easing is hardly a cure-all. In fact, it has been one of the reasons that we have such a mess in our markets today. The markets have become addicted to the easy money, so more of the same will have little or no impact. We will need real economic demand, not an easier monetary policy. It won’t help support tourism, for example, or the other sectors getting smashed right now. The government will need to spend at least 5% of GDP, or roughly $1 trillion, to offset the weakness I see coming. Is it surprising that the Fed and the government take emergency steps to try to stabilize economic growth? Not at all. This is essentially what they have been doing for a long time, so it is completely consistent with their playbook. Next, I would anticipate the government implementing some massive public-works and infrastructure programs over the coming months. That would be very helpful, and almost certainly quite necessary. But there’s a problem with this kind of intervention from the government…
What Happens When You Eliminate the Business Cycle
The Fed’s foolish attempt to eliminate business cycles is a significant contributing factor to the volatility we are currently experiencing. Quantitative easing is nothing more than printing lots and lots of money to support a weak economy and give the appearance of growth and prosperity. In fact, it is a devaluation of the currency’s true buying power. That in turn artificially drives up the prices of other assets, such as stocks, real estate and gold – but it does not create true wealth. That only comes with non-inflationary growth of goods and services and associated increases in economic output. Inflation is the government’s way to keep people thinking they are doing better. To that point: We have seen some traditional safe-haven assets getting destroyed during this time of risk aversion. That has certainly compounded the problems of many investors. Gold is a great example. As the stock market got violently slammed, people were forced to come up with cash to support their losing positions. Gold became a short-term source of liquidity as people sold their gold holdings in somewhat dramatic fashion. It was one of the few holdings of many people that was not dramatically under water, so people sold it. The move may have seemed perverse, particularly to people who bought gold as a safe-haven asset, but in times of crisis, all assets tend to become highly correlated, at least short term. We saw a similar thing happen with long yen exposures and long Bitcoin exposures recently. The dollar had its strongest one-day rally against the yen since November 2016 as people were forced to sell huge amounts of yen to generate liquidity. Many speculators had made some nice profits recently as the dollar dropped sharply from 112 to 101.30, but they have been forced to book whatever profits they had in this position. Again, this was due to massive losses elsewhere in their portfolios. Is the yen’s sell-off complete? If it is not complete, it is probably at least close to an attractive level for Japanese investors to start buying yen against a basket of currencies. The major supplies of yen have largely been taken off the table for now. For example, the yen had been a popular funding currency for “carry” plays. People were selling yen and buying higher-yielding currencies to earn the interest rate difference between the liability currency (yen) and the funding currency (for example, the U.S. dollar). Carry plays are very unpopular in times of great uncertainty and volatility, however, so that supply of yen will be largely gone for quite some time. Plus, the yield advantage of currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar versus the yen is nearly gone. In addition, at the end of the Japanese fiscal year , there is usually heavy demand for yen as Japanese corporations need to bring home a portion of their overseas holdings for balance sheet window dressing. I don’t expect that pressure to be different this year. Just as the safe-haven assets of yen and gold got aggressively sold, Bitcoin also got hammered. It was driven by a similar theme – people had big losses and they needed to produce liquidity quickly. Selling Bitcoin became one of the sources of that liquidity.
Heavy Price Deflation Ahead
Overall, there is a chance that this scenario turns into something truly ugly, with sustained price deflation across many parts of the economy. We will certainly have price deflation in many sectors, at least on a temporary basis. Why does that matter over the long term? Price deflation is the most debilitating economic development in a society that is debt-laden – like the U.S. today. Prices of assets come down… and the debt becomes progressively bigger and bigger. The balance sheet of oil company Chesapeake Energy is a classic example. It’s carrying almost $10 billion worth of debt… versus a market cap of only about $600 million. Talk about leverage! When the company had a market cap of $10 billion, that debt level didn’t appear so terrifying. Although this is an extreme example for illustrative purposes, the massive debt loads of China would seem more and more frightening if we were to sink into flat or negative growth cycles for a while. The government’s resources are already being strained, and it can artificially support only so many failing companies. The U.S. has gigantic levels of debt as well, but it has the advantage of being the world’s true hegemon, and the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. This creates a tremendous amount of leverage and power in financing its debt. The U.S. has been able to impose its will on its trading partners to trade major commodities in dollars. This has created a constant demand for the dollar that offsets, to a large extent, the massive trade deficit that the U.S. runs. For example, if a German company wants to buy oil, then it needs to hold dollars. This creates a constant demand for dollar assets. In short, the dollar’s status as the true global reserve currency is far more important than most people realize. China does not hold this advantage.
What to Do Now
In terms of how to position ourselves going forward, I strongly recommend that people continue with a defensive attitude regarding stocks. There could be a lot more downside to come. Likewise, we could see some panic selling in other asset classes. The best thing right now is to be liquid and patient, ready to pounce on special opportunities when they present themselves. For sure, there will be some exceptional opportunities, but it is too early to commit ourselves to just one industry. These opportunities could come in diverse sectors such as commercial real estate, hospitality, travel and leisure, and others. As for the forex markets, the volatility in the currencies is extreme, so we are a bit cautious. I still like the yen as a safe-haven asset. I likewise still want to sell the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar as liability currencies. Why? The Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have all taken aggressive steps recently, slashing interest rates. These currencies are all weak, and they will get weaker. Finding an ideal entry for a trade, however, is tricky. Therefore, we are being extra careful with our trading. We always prioritize the preservation of capital over generating profits, and we will continue with this premise. At the same time, volatility in the markets is fantastic for traders. We expect many excellent opportunities to present themselves over the coming days and weeks as prices get driven to extreme levels and mispricings appear. So stay tuned.
If you’re thinking about starting trading from a place of financial desperation, stop.
Hopefully this will reach at least one person, a lot of folks have seen their 401ks nuked or just had their income cut close to zero. You look online for ways to make money at home and stumble across forex trading, an endeavor where 95% of traders fail in the long term and the liquidity of newbies is exploited to fill the orders of the more experienced. If you ever go in to trading with the mindset that you NEED to win the next few trades to pay off that next bill, consider the money already lost. A massive part of being successful in trading is mindset, as soon as desperation kicks in you force yourself to close your winners early and think letting your losing trades run is a good idea. When trading from desperation as a complete beginner, you typically follow the Dunning Krueger curve to the letter https://onlinepethealth-info.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Dunning-Kruger.jpg You have your euphoric high at the peak of mount stupid, and will quickly feel the crippling suffocation at the valley of despair. “You drank deep and you paid the price.” Then it’s time for you to climb the slope of enlightenment. However, the only tool in your toolset is your shovel that you use to get to the bottom of the pit of despair. If you insist on using what you only know as a beginner, that shovel will dig deeper than you were. I swear to god if you keep trading before you take the time to learn you’ll lose everything. It’s a slow climb, you aren’t ever going to get that high of paying your bills through your incredible, home brewed strategy and wits alone anytime in the next year unless you insist on degenerate gambling. You are not the outlier. Sit back, complete the entire babypips course, and don’t use any tool without being able to answer “what is the fundamental paradigm driving the efficacy of this tool?” Your desire for trading should stem from a passion for the art of the execution, not the desire for short term gains. You don’t buy a guitar and go street performing the first week. If you bought the guitar to make money, sure, you can once you master it. But if you head out your first week, you’re going to embarrass yourself find yourself in debt. Good luck! 95% of traders fail because they insist they have nothing left to learn no matter where they are on the Dunning Krueger Curve, which is a poor choice in a fluid and evolving market condition. A true master is an eternal student, you can do it, just don’t plan for profitability any time in the next year. Never trade with money you CAN’T AFFORD TO LOSE. THAT MEANS THE MONEY FOR NEXT MONTH’S BILLS. Go forth!
I’m not posting this because I’m looking to day trade full time or because I really want a new Ferrari in less than a year based on all the YouTube videos out there... My ideal situation would be put in the hours studying/learning, start to actually understand the hard stuff, paper trade for a few months until I’m consistently in the green, and after all that jump in and trade with real money! I’m simply a college student with no direction on how to start in this day trading world! I’ve watched videos, read articles/books, and after hours and hours I’m still not even 1% confident with anything trading related. Does anyone have any advice? Books, articles, YouTube videos, anything that would cover the stuff that is needed? And I’m familiar with the stock market so basic information isn’t what I’m lacking it’s how to look at a stock and predict using “Trends” or “Forex” when a profitable time to enter would be... (I don’t even know if I used those terms correctly lol) Also I should mention I understand it will take 100’s of hours of studying and practicing before I can be a confident trader but I want to at least be studying the right stuff? Thanks to anyone who comments constructive feedback I greatly appreciate it!
Hi guys! So I’m starting a new job soon but also moving out finally but finally have some stability and a job I like. I am almost 27, was living at home since college but unfortunately still was unable to save too much. My jobs since college paid me like shit (started at 37K and now at 52K but my new job I will start will be 72k). That plus student loans, a car, a DUI (PS please do not drink and drive and try never get one they are expensive af and not to mention I still feel guilt everyday), and overally poor spending habits Here is what I have to my name so far: 23K in a 401K (my current job is a contract job so zero employer contribution) - I want to take a better approach to this About 6K in a rainy day savings account that was originally 1.99% Apr but has since dropped to 1.25 because recession (yeah this is low because as I mentioned the reasons above lol). Basically, it’s just sitting there doing nothing. A car loan that has about 19K left in it. No significant credit card debt (zeroing it out next week) of personal loans or anything Student loans my parents said they would take care of once I moved out but I don’t have much left on them anyway so those are a non-factor at the moment. My credit score is actually fuckin good (>800 humble brag) but I have no assets to show for it and I wanna change that So here is where my real questions begin At my next role, I am trying to allocate about 1K a month to savings (take home pay, not 401k). I want to actually do something with it like invest but I have zero idea where to start. Like legit zero - I’ve heard people talk about options, and Forex and other crap but all this is a foreign language to me. Any ideas where I can learn as a complete beginner? App, link, book, anything lol I did a calculation and 1K/month is the max I can save for now but hopefully I can adjust after I get my raise. As for my 401K - I will be starting off at 6% contributions as that is unfortunately all I can afford at the moment (also putting in a few bucks for HSA every month). Thing is, I have not touched the 401k AT ALL in terms of the investment strategy. Can someone link me a link/book for this as well. Also looking into a Roth IRA as I heard those are good but also have zero fuckin idea how those work or where to start. I know I can google or youtube but I trust reddit to come thru because tbh, it has come thru a lot the last 2 years of my life more than those other sources lol. Also yeah I know I suck with my money but I’m trying to reverse my habits and go down a better path now instead of later. Thanks everyone!
I joined this thread a few weeks ago. I thought it was a place where real traders hangout and actually learn from each other. Learning forex is not just strategy and psychology. I've learnt people here got a fixed state of mind about risk management and money management. Whereas I have been consistent with 10%, I have friends who trade 20%, 30% and as little as 5%. Some who take the whole move and others who take whatever ago. I would ask why, and they all reply,"My risk management." What could be a learning moment always turns into an exchange of nasty conversation. My very memorable "nemesis" who told me I need to be saved, I'm too far gone, etc, also bragged he has been trading profitably for 2 years. He recently posted how he is depressed about trading and is actually afraid of the markets. hasn't trade for months now and when he did, it was only for 5 months. Most of them are computer science and Finance students. They are quick to tell every newbie how they need such background to be succesful taders. Here's the kicker. Only one trader in my circle has a C.S background. All the others have A Bachelors of Obsession and Perseverance. Of course there are very few cool finance and CS students here. No beef. At the end of the day, I'm only human. And these conversation, at the very least trigger a conversation. At the most annoys me. I know scalpers and swingers and I treat them equally. at the end of the day they are all securing the bag. I'm nice to them, so at the end of the day they drop me a nugget.
The dude who turns 200 to 250k in under a month. "Dude, Icmarkets is great. but after opening with 200$, split that into ten accounts. and if you go bust then you have only lost 20."
A 100 lots guy,"if you loose 3 trades in a row, go back to demo."
my homeboy rockstar trader, I would call him up like yo I just had the biggest week ever, I.m 50% up. and he's like, withdraw and go treat yourself. It took me 2 years before my first withdrawal. you've made it in a year. And, I'm like," but I'm trynna compound.."
And he's like,"At the very least open an extra account."
These look like simple remarks but mix em with your strategy and they take you a step further, control greed, give you a chance to stop and refine your strategy, Give you a chance to come back after a blown account, I could go on and on. there is so much I've learnt even from mediocre traders with flashy lifestyle on IG. Now I just mentioned a guy who trades the 1 min and make 80-100+% per trade. instead of someone asking me how's that possible? Have you seen his Myfxbook? No He went on about how that's pure bullshit. Now my personality trait, I would wanna answer him that I have actually seen his myfxbook and that is how i actually keep track of each %age. So basically this thread has consumed my time online and offline and in some way affected my trading. I remember closing a trade at 10 pips profit just so my account would be a solid 30 something %, when I was positive that the trade had higher chances of reaching 45 pips, I just didnt wanna risk the propbable chance of it reversing to my SL. so that i could sshot and post it to the few haters and non believers that I had earned in this thread. Now look at this, With the cute sshot I was 30%+ up, but without it and the haters, I would've been about 70% up that. Whereas I had myself and my few trading friends who I actually reach out to ask questions. now I had a bunch of people to convince that there actually is money in forex. Even when I'm not online I find myself thinking about this thread. Wanting to come online to answer a few question or just read some posts. I have caught myself checking this page first before starting my backtesting. we all know how a quick check can turn into minutes on the internet. I'd come online and see a "pro trader" telling a newbie how he needs a Finance or C.S background to succeed in this field, if not just foget about it. And these replies are always delivered with a touch of arrogance that makes me go like wtf?! and i would jump in and reply. More power to those who can manage being apart of a toxic group. I have managed to help a few who reached out to me from this group but that's that. As for me I can manage the negative energy and trade and run a super productive life. Anyways, I'm one strike away from a perma ban for posting profits. So...yeah
Real estate beginner here. Looking for some advice on international property investment.
Here's a little bit of background before getting to the actual question. I'm a young trader and my only source of income is trading (forex and cryptocurrencies) and investing (cryptocurrencies). I've been planning to diversify my income sources for a long time, and property investment has always interested me. I've actually been waiting for this recession since late 2018 after watching a few investor channels on YouTube predicting an upcoming recession, and I've been meaning to buy properties during this recession ever since. Now that the recession has finally started, I believe it's getting closer to the right time to buy. I have absolutely no prior experience and barely any knowledge in property investment and am still very much in the learning phase in all this. I probably should've started learning and reading a lot sooner, but I've been working on other things in life. I hope I'm not too late to start this new journey of property investment. As a self-employeed "digital nomad", I travel around the world a lot and can go to other countries without any financial or time constraints. My home country isn't really a great place to buy properties; I believe there are other better options elsewhere and that's why I am thinking of international property investment. So my question is, what places are the best options for a foreign investor to buy properties in during this time? I'm only looking for one or two places at most. Also could you give feedback on my next steps after the purchases? My full plan is as follows: Buy a number of houses in great locations and rent them away to college students and young adults who don't have their own houses yet to collect monthly checks from them, and once this recession is over and the prices have recovered, remodel them and sell them back at much higher prices. I'd like to know if this is realistically feasible and worth the time, money and effort involved. Also, once the pandemic dies down and international travelling becomes easy again, would it be too late to buy? The curve has started flattenning already in many countries and it doesn't seem travelling restrictions caused by the pandemic will last that long. I'd be great if the location is a good place to visit and have fun things to do as I'd like to have a good time while I'm there to do the business.
I am a premed student that just finished college and is on course to start medical school next fall (2021). I've always been pretty good at school and absolutely love science. My mom is a doctor, and 2 of my siblings are also docs. I'm the youngest. I also have a few cousins that are docs. As you can probably guess, I've been kind of groomed to be a doctor. There's always quite a bit of pressure from my family to become a doctor. However, my parents put me through school with no loans and gave me pocket money so they do have a lot invested in my career choice. Also, nuclear and extended family members have always told me that out of all the kids (siblings + cousins), I specifically am the one that needs to be a doctor (due to academic ability and the way my brain processes things). So the pressure is for sure there lol. My issue is that I discovered the forex market a little over a year ago and absolutely fell in love with trading. I've been pretty consistent in learning about the market and practicing for the whole year. I found a good strategy that *actually* works, learned to manage my emotions, and I'm now starting to see overall profits. Obviously I still have a long way to go until I could returns significant enough to provide for a family doing this, but it seems very very lucrative. If I become a doctor, I'd finish residency about a decade from now. By then, if I had consistently been getting better at trading for a decade, I would be making much more than my salary as a physician. So, I wonder: why would I continue to waste my time practicing medicine? I think I would enjoy practicing medicine, but why would I do it while I could do something I like just as much, and make more money. On top of that, wouldn't that mean the decade in school/residency was a giant waste of time? On the other side of the argument, 95% of retail traders don't make any money, so I assume that thinking I'll be making those significant returns in 10 years may be a long shot. It's not all about the money though. I genuinely have always seen myself as a doctor. It's almost like a personality trait. I always want to be the one to figure or what's wrong with someone, or be responsible for treating a wound. When the Covid-19 pandemic started getting bad, I felt a very strong urge to be on the front lines helping, regardless of the risk. I've always thought it would be exciting to actually use the knowledge I learned to diagnose and treat patients. I really really like human science. To the point that I've already made some the connections that'll be taught in medical school, just because of additional research I've done to cure my curiosity. Human science is for sure my thing, so I'd think medicine should be as well. On top of all this, I am way more inclined to study trading than to study medicine. I've studied forex information for 10-12hrs straight before and not even noticed it was already 4am. In contrast, I have to force myself to open up MCAT books (even though I love science), and detest traditional school/tests. Although, I'm the type of person that can push through and do what needs to be done, whether I like it or not. (TLDR) In a nutshell, I love both trading and medicine. However, I'm not sure if I could balance the two together through medical school/residency, and then while actually practicing. I also doubt that I will actually continue practicing medicine if I'm making a lot of money trading. Am I being unrealistic? Sorry this was so long, but I really need some advice/perspective on how I should move forward. Thanks for reading!!!! FYI: I understand that FX is not at all a get rich quick kind of thing. I'm more than willing to put in the work and I have been for the past year. Edit: probably should have mentioned that I trade for a prop firm with a scaling plan. So no I don't intend on using my own money to trade for a while lol
Should I become a doc? (sos problems but here for laughs)
I am a premed student that just finished college and is on course to start medical school next fall (2021). I've always been pretty good at school and absolutely love science. My mom is a doctor, and 2 of my siblings are also docs. I'm the youngest. I also have a few cousins that are docs. As you can probably guess, I've been kind of groomed to be a doctor. There's always quite a bit of pressure from my family to become a doctor. However, my parents put me through school with no loans and gave me pocket money so they do have a lot invested in my career choice. Also, nuclear and extended family members have always told me that out of all the kids (siblings + cousins), I specifically am the one that needs to be a doctor (due to academic ability and the way my brain processes things). So the pressure is for sure there lol. My issue is that I discovered the forex market a little over a year ago and absolutely fell in love with trading. I've been pretty consistent in learning about the market and practicing for the whole year. I found a good strategy that *actually* works, learned to manage my emotions, and I'm now starting to see overall profits. Obviously I still have a long way to go until I could returns significant enough to provide for a family doing this, but it seems very very lucrative. If I become a doctor, I'd finish residency about a decade from now. By then, if I had consistently been getting better at trading for a decade, I would be making much more than my salary as a physician. So, I wonder: why would I continue to waste my time practicing medicine? I think I would enjoy practicing medicine, but why would I do it while I could do something I like just as much, and make more money. On top of that, wouldn't that mean the decade in school/residency was a giant waste of time? On the other side of the argument, 95% of retail traders don't make any money, so I assume that thinking I'll be making those significant returns in 10 years may be a long shot. It's not all about the money though. I genuinely have always seen myself as a doctor. It's almost like a personality trait. I always want to be the one to figure or what's wrong with someone, or be responsible for treating a wound. When the Covid-19 pandemic started getting bad, I felt a very strong urge to be on the front lines helping, regardless of the risk. I've always thought it would be exciting to actually use the knowledge I learned to diagnose and treat patients. I really really like human science. To the point that I've already made some the connections that'll be taught in medical school, just because of additional research I've done to cure my curiosity. Human science is for sure my thing, so I'd think medicine should be as well. On top of all this, I am way more inclined to study trading than to study medicine. I've studied forex information for 10-12hrs straight before and not even noticed it was already 4am. In contrast, I have to force myself to open up MCAT books (even though I love science), and detest traditional school/tests. Although, I'm the type of person that can push through and do what needs to be done, whether I like it or not. (TLDR) In a nutshell, I love both trading and medicine. However, I'm not sure if I could balance the two together through medical school/residency, and then while actually practicing. I also doubt that I will actually continue practicing medicine if I'm making a lot of money trading. Am I being unrealistic? Sorry this was so long, but I really need some advice/perspective on how I should move forward. Thanks for reading!!!!
Our mission is to help new traders reach the level of mastery by obtaining clarity on proper trading goals, following our step-by-step system needed to become consistently profitable and building the confidence necessary to overcome psychological barriers. Probably not if you are not acquainted with or haven’t heard about forex market trading. Forex markets are open 24-hours a day, and there is a lot to do. It does not matter where you are in the Welcome to the /r/Forex Trading Community! Here you can converse about trading ideas, strategies, trading psychology, and nearly everything in between! ---- We also have one of the largest forex chatrooms online! ---- /r/Forex is the official subreddit of FXGears.com, a trading forum run by professional traders. The following article comes from a student who is working, and practicing, his way to being a consistent forex trader. Below he shares some of his insights on what it takes to trade forex successfully, based on mistakes made and lessons learned. What It Takes Trade Forex Successfully, From Student’s Viewpoint… Pay Down Your Debt. Forex trading is one way to make extra money while you are at college, so let’s take a look at why buying and selling foreign currency for profit can work well for students.. Studying at college is not easy. You have to attend lectures, write assignments, study for exams, and make sure your grades stay on track.
Is Forex a scam? Does trading really work? I need help ? #Forex
Just wanted to drop a few of our student and client testimonials to provide some encouragement for furture traders or those wanting to learn forex or trading in general. Some say its a scam the ... So one of the biggest confusions I see when Making Money with MT4, is people not really understanding the Buy vs Sell concept and when to do so. In this video I'll be breaking down buying vs ... BEGINNER FOREX TRADING THE HARSH REALITY - trading is a very exiting thing but you need to know that it's always rainbows and unicorns. Thanks for watching... I understand that people get excited about trading Forex, making money, living their dreams, etc... But the reality is that, in my opinion, it takes really hard work to become a successful trader. *NOTE: I am not a financial advisor and anything I share or say should not be taken as financial advise. These are my personal opinions and how I view the market. What works for me may not work ...