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Defending the Draft: San Francisco 49ers
Defending the 49ers Draft submitted by ghostofabhelmet to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]
The 2019 49ers were not expected to be much at the beginning of the season. If a 49er fan told you at the beginning of the 100th year season that the 49ers would not only go 13-3 and get the first seed but also make the Superbowl, you’d tell them to put down the crack pipe and stop being a massive homer. That’s how badly the 49ers have been the past few seasons. With a record of 2-14,6-10, 4-12 the past 3 years, one could hardly blame you for laughing at someone for thinking that the 49ers would be Super Bowl Contenders. Make the playoffs? Sure, why not. Win the division? Plausible, but unlikely considering you had the Super Bowl Appearing Rams and the ever-dangerous Seahawks with Russell Wilson to deal with after all. Make the Super Bowl pfft yeah right. But somehow this crack dream became a reality for 49ers fans. The 2019 49ers would not only be good--they’d be elite. With an elite defensive Line consisting of 4 First round D-lineman, and a creative offense orchestrated by offensive genius Kyle Shanahan, the 2019 49ers were a force to be reckoned with. Barely falling to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV. So, with that the 2020 49ers expectations were higher than their 2019 variation. Here’s what John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan (ShanaLynch) have done so far to try and live up to them. Offseason: Key Loses: Emmanuel Sanders (WR); Deforest Buckner(DT), Trade for Colts 2019 First Round Pick; Joe Staley (LT), retirement; Mike Person (OG), Cut Free Agency Additions: Travis Benjamin (WR); Tom Compton (OG); Joe Walker (LB)
As defending NFC Champions, the 49ers didn’t have many big moves that they could make due to being close to the cap, the need to retain key free agents and the contract extension of superstar Tight End George Kittle. Comparing the loses to the gains we can safely say the losses list is far more memorable than what they gained in free agency. Therefore, the main plan for the 2020 offseason was retaining as many players as possible. They were able to re-sign key pieces like Arik Armstead and Jimmie Ward, who were two valuable starters of the 49ers defense. Sadly, contract extension negotiations with Deforest Buckner didn’t go as the 49ers had hoped, and the 49ers traded him to the Indianapolis Colts for the 13th Overall Pick. Mid-season acquisition Emmanuel Sanders decided to walk from the 49ers contract offer and instead go to the New Orleans Saints. Starting Guard Mike Person was cut. Long time left tackle Joe Staley retired (that will be talked about later). The 9ers got some additions through free agency, but they are unlikely to make a significant impact on the team. With an offseason highlighted by loses, it was clear that the 49ers would need to look to the NFL draft if they wanted to improve upon their 2019-20 season. Day 1:
The 49ers had Two Picks in the first round, setting them up for the potential of a very busy day one. Depending on what ShanaLynch wanted to do they had plenty of options available on what to do with these two valuable picks. Here’s what they decided to do with them. Lead up
Originally having the 13th overall pick at the time, the 49ers had a plethora of options at this pick. Many mock drafters and 49ers fans themselves expected the 49ers to go with one of the big 3 of the wide receiver class (Jeudy, Lamb, and Ruggs). At the time of the pick there was still two of the top receiver prospects on the board and one of the top tackles of the class left in the class in Tristan Wirfs. Instead of picking them ShanaLynch decided to trade down and gain some draft capital. They ended up trading down with Tampa Bay only one spot and gained a 2019 4th in exchange for a 2019 7th. When the time came for them to pick again instead of the top receivers left here’s who they decided to pick. Round 1 Pick 14: Javon Kinlaw, Defensive Tackle, South Carolina
If you were to ask an NFL fan, “what is the scariest thing about facing the 49ers?”, the thing that will come up most is “man, they have a scary defensive line”. Buckner played a vital role, and his trade sent the 49ers D-line from “cheat code” to just top 5. If the 49ers wanted to keep up their defensive line dominance than they would need a monster to replace Buckner. Javon Kinlaw is a monster. At 6’5” 324 lbs with long arms, Kinlaw is a freak of nature that can eat up double teams and straight up win one on ones. When watching his tape, one consistent thing is the power he plays with. Against Georgia he completely dominated that game, playing almost every snap, and was consistently in the face of Jake Fromm, even directly causing Fromm to throw a crucial pick 6. In the Senior Bowl he was completely dominant and almost no one was able to stop him. When they play against the 49ers, NFL Qbs will now have the unpleasant option of either being pushed out of the pockets and into the arms of Bosa and Ford, or stepping up into the pocket of Kinlaw and Armstead. The ability to be able to create pressure by rushing 4 is a nightmare for QBs. On passing downs this season 49ers opponents will have to choose to double either Bosa, Armstead, Ford, or Kinlaw or keeping eligible receivers in the backfield to help block. Most teams will undoubtedly choose to leave the rookie one on one and if Kinlaw translates his college game to the nfl, that will likely be the wrong choice.
His big knock predraft was his lack of technique and his reliance on power. Even Kinlaw himself admitted that he needed to get better with his technique. To reach his full potential, Kinlaw needed a good D-line coach—conveniently, 49ers Coach Kris Kocurek is one of the best in the business. With a resume consisting of Ndamukuh Suh, Ezekiel Ansah, Cameron Wake, Robert Quinn, and the 2019 49ers, Kocurek has helped coach and develop a lot of talented D-Linemen. Kinlaw is in the right hands and if he busts it won’t be due to his environment on the 49ers.
Some people may say “it was a bad move to trade Deforest Buckner only to replace him with someone you hoped could be as good as him. It may have been better to just accept d-line weaker and upgrade something else like wideout. The d-line will still be good but the wideouts will be better.” It’s a reasonable argument to make and one of the reasons why I was initially hesitant about the Kinlaw pick. But one could argue it wasn’t just Deforest Buckner for Javon Kinlaw, but it was Deforest Buckner for his replacement and cap flexibility. If the 49ers wanted to maintain cap flexibility, they had a choice of Buckner and at best a 2021 3rd round comp pick from losing Armstead or Armstead and Kinlaw. It’s a hard choice to make, but if Kinlaw works out it becomes the easy choice, and Kinlaw is a very good prospect to make that bet on. Lead up
With their original first round pick many pundits anticipated that the 49ers trade back. They had no day 2 picks and only had a 4th, two 5ths, a 6th and a 7th. Many analysts and experts expected the 49ers to fix the lack of day 2 picks with pick 31. It makes sense, get an elite prospect with their early pick and use their later first rounder for more picks. When it comes to the drafts, Analysts usually prefer to go for a “quantity over quality”-type approach--get as many players as possible and hope at least one of them works out. The 49ers traded the pick all right… It just wasn’t down. With their 2020 first rounder along with their 2020 4th they got from the trade down from thirteen and a 2020 5th, the 49ers traded UP with the Vikings to gain pick 25. I was shocked by this trade, as most 49ers fans were. We were expecting a trade down. By trading up, the 49ers completely obliterated any hope of having a day 2 pick and basically decimated the rest of their draft capital. In short, this trade up was a huge gamble. It was obvious that the 49ers were going to take someone who they were all-in on. So, who’s this player that the 49ers blew the rest of their draft capital load on? Round 1 Pick 25: Brandon Aiyuk, Wider Receiver, Arizona State
After a season with inconsistent wide receivers, it seemed very likely that the 49ers would take a receiver with one of their first-round picks. Most fans and analysts figured it would be Jeudy, Ruggs or Lamb at 13 and then trade down with their other pick. By trading the 13th pick, and picking Kinlaw at 14, Shanahan showed that he wasn’t interested in any of them. Instead he went with Aiyuk, a player with a first-round grade but not mentioned as much by most fans. Shanahan, however, after the draft, called him his favorite receiver in the draft. Normally one could say this is just coach speak, but if you look at his tape and the traits he has, it’s very plausible that Aiyuk was Shanahan’s first choice. This one is going to be a long, and the reason it’s going to be long is because I believe Aiyuk is going to be the key pick for this draft. If Kinlaw doesn’t work out its bad but our defensive line is still going to be fine. Aiyuk on the hand can make or break our wide receiver room, outside of Deebo there are a lot of question marks and with the fact we spent what little draft capital left we had on him, there’s a lot invested. I’m going to be honest here, I didn’t really investigate Aiyuk that much. I was sure that the 49ers would go with the big 3. I was dead wrong on that. Looking at him now my thoughts on him are “man he is damn good”. At 5’11 3/4th” and about 200 pounds one of the most noticeable things about him is his wingspan--81 INCHES. To quote u/rockysauce115
“That man can tie his shoes standing up”. The one thing he stands out for among what is considered one of the deepest wide receiver class is something that has become synonymous with the 49ers themselves, YAC. Aiyuk averaged 18.3 YPR and of those yards 9.9 of them were after the catch leading the nation. Once the ball gets in his hand he doesn’t go down, no he keeps moving and if defenders fail at making a play he is gone.
At the combine he ran a 4.5 40--a decent score, but nothing to special. Aiyuk was still recovering from a core muscle surgery, however, and if you put him on tape and his highlights you realize he runs on the field faster than his 40. He absolutely can dust guys. Last season he was marked at running 21.97 mph in pads. To put that in context, only three other players in the Nfl ran faster. Take that what you will but just know that Brandon Aiyuk is a lot faster than his 40 time--make a mistake and he has enough speed to make you pay for it. His burst, however, is elite. Having a 40 inch vertical jump and a 128 inch Broad Jump translates him to a Burst score of 132 (92nd Percentile). This man is not just a workout warrior but an athlete, and that translates on the field. Aiyuk can work magic once the ball is in his hands. Now the question becomes, “will it be possible to get the ball into his hands at the NFL level?” The short answer is “yes”. Shanahan has a penchant for getting receivers open in the NFL. If he wants Aiyuk to have the ball, he will get Aiyuk open enough to get the ball. But even if he didn’t have Shanahan scheming him open, I believe Aiyuk would be able to get open on his own in the NFL. Brandon Aiyuk doesn’t have the route running of Jerry Jeudy--no one does. But when you put on his tape you can see that despite his need to polish his route running, he has a solid foundation that teams can build on. His feet are light. They aren’t clunky and they can change direction in an instant. He has shown the ability to set up corners. These things make him a prospect that Shanahan can mold into the receiver he needs to unlock the full potential of his offense. Who is the receiving coach that will be tasked with helping Aiyuk get there? A guy who knows a thing or two about route running—Wes Welker.
Criticisms/concerns surrounding Aiyuk are 1) being just a one-year wonder, 2) his competition in the PAC 12, and 3) the trade up itself. Aiyuk isn’t a typical one-year wonder like most people think. He was a beast in Junior College being named a junior college All American his sophomore year and while it doesn’t mean much it does show that he was able to dominate his lower competition which you want to see out of elite guys . Junior year the argument can be made that he was adjusting to the FBS level and when he finally got the chance to be the number one in Arizona State’s offense his senior year, he made use of that opportunity and ran away with it like he ran away from defenders. The one-year wonder is a valid concern but I don’t think its back breaking. He’s always been good he just hasn’t been good on the highest stage yet.
The Pac 12 was not good, it hasn’t been for a while. When Aiyuk faced good defenses he generally did not produce. The only one he did was against Oregon and man did he leave a mark on them. But his supporting cast also wasn’t the greatest. For example, he had Jayden Daniels at Qb… Jayden Daniels was ranked the worst pac 12 qb in terms of accuracy and PFF had him graded as the 72 ranked Qb in the FBS. No knock-on Daniels--he was only a freshman and he will probably get better, but for Aiyuk, he was terrible. So yes, one can argue that Aiyuk didn’t face the best competition but the counter to that is it’s not like his team mates were world beaters either and somethings were out of Aiyuk’s control and all he can do is put his best on tape and generally his best was really good.
Finally, the trade up, a lot of pundits have been saying “you didn’t need to trade up for him he would’ve been there at pick 31 heck you could’ve traded down and still gotten him.” That’s bogus YOU don’t know if he will be there at pick 31 all it takes is one team that is ahead of you that rates him as similar as you do and suddenly your guy… gone, instead you have to settle. Now you can make the argument that they should’ve just settled and get one of the second-round receivers after all this is one of the deepest draft classes in a while. Buuuttt looking at the second round wideouts none of them really seem like they’d be as good of a fit for the 49ers. So even if they stayed put and settled, there didn’t seem to be a receiver that fit Shanahans offense as well as Aiyuk did. Its scheme fit vs talent and when that Scheme fit also has talent it apparently was too much for Shanahan too miss out on and he needed to trade up for him.
When we initially picked Kinlaw I was bummed, he was a good player but I was hoping to add a receiver that can add another dimension to the offense. Looking at the Aiyuk tape now it makes me feel a whole lot better about the Kinlaw pick. I really like Aiyuk and the potential he has and I’m excited to see him in the Shanahan offense. I think the 49ers are lucky that they were able to get a prospect like him at pick 25. In a year not as stacked at wide receiver he very well could’ve been a top 3 wide receiver. Either way the 49ers got a very good wide receiver prospect and I’m hopeful and believe he can do great things for them. Day 2:
The 49ers didn’t have any day 2 picks and the reason for this is because they traded them for immediate contributors. The 2020 2nd round pick was used for Dee Ford and the 3rd and 4th round pick were used for Emmanuel Sanders. I’ve seen worse use of day two picks and even though Sanders was a half season rental he provided a stability and veteran presence that was desperately needed in the wide receiver room. Day 3:
Day 3 was a big day. Leading up to the draft there were rumors of Longtime 49ers left tackle Joe Staley retiring and these rumors were true. Staley has been a rock for years and it will be sad to no longer see him on the line. With his retirement the 49ers NEEDED a left tackle, now they could’ve done the safe thing and just take Wirfs at 13 and just live with the fact that they would no longer have a dominant defensive line, instead they chose to go a different route. With a 2020 5th round pick and 2021 3rd round pick the 49ers acquired Trent Williams from the Washington Redskins. I really don’t need to defend Trent Williams since he’s literally the perfect Shanahan Tackle--big, athletic, and moves way faster than a man his size should move. He’s earned quite a few pro bowls, and people know who he is. Normally it would’ve cost quite a bit to get tackle of his caliber but due to drama in Washington the 49ers were able to get him for cheap. If he can shake off the rust from missing a year, Jimmy G’s beautiful face won’t ever have to worry about his blindside. Hopefully they can re-sign him to a reasonable contract but if they don’t a 3rd and a 5th is still a good price for a guy his caliber even if it’s for one year. I love Joe Staley and he had an amazing career, but for 2020 I’d bet that a 32-year-old Williams is going to be an upgrade over a 35-year-old Staley. Lead up
Fan favorite Rb Matt Breida was traded to help the 49ers gain some draft capital back and he was traded to the dolphins for their pick. He was great value; a UDFA, became a key contributor and was flipped for a 5th rounder. Here’s his replacement Round 5 pick 153: Colton Mckivitz, Offensive Tackle, West Viriginia
Mckivitz was a 4-year starter at West Virginia and played both right and left tackle. He was always on the field for them and was just a mean guy that can move people. Many pundits expect him to move inside and he will have the chance to win the now vacant RG spot. You should never complain about offensive line depth and if he wins the starting guard job this is a fantastic pick—that, or our guards suck. If all he does is be depth on the line and fill in where he can that’s still great and a good use of a 5th rounder. Something that is interesting is that he earned first team All big 12, big 12 co-offensive lineman of the year and an 2nd team All American. The reason that’s interesting is that generally offensive linemen awards usually just go to guys on good teams. West Virginia was not a good team, and the fact that he was able to earn those rewards shows his ability. Lead up
Their 6th round pick involved a trade up with the Eagles. The 49ers didn’t give up much and all it was worth was Marquise Goodwin. Goes to show how much Goodwin was worth to the 49ers. But with the pick swap here’s who they moved up for that they thought was worth one Marquise Goodwin. Round 6 pick 190 Charlier Woerner, Tight End, Georgia
Charlie Woerner is a 6’5” 252 pound Tight end that really wasn’t involved in the passing game that much. He’s an athletic dude but a bit slow and he didn’t have very much production in terms of receptions and frankly he’s not really projected to be much in the passing game. So why was this guy drafted? Well this man can BLOCK and he blocks well with energy and enthusiasm. This guy can wall off defenders and if he’s in space he can help spring the running backs into big gains. He’s going to be the Levine Toilolo replacement, a blocking tight end that can help the run game. If he has any impact in the pass game it’ll be extra, but if you’re a tight end and you’re willing and able to block you will find out that teams can find roster spots for you. Lead up
The 49ers made a lot of moves in the draft and with their last pick it was the only original one that didn’t trade. So here’s the last pick of the 2020 49ers draft Class. Round 7 pick 217: Juan Jennings, Wide Receiver, Tennessee
The first thing that I can think of when I put on his highlights is “man this kid plays tough”. At 6’3” and 210 pounds he’s a big slot that makes plays every time the ball is thrown his way. You can see the heart he plays with and I can see why Tennessee fans love him. Sadly, he is a bit slow, running a 4.72 which is not good for a wide receiver. But he makes plays with the ball and he is a tough receiver. As I look at him though, I’m sorry Tennessee fans, he’s most likely just Jalen Hurd insurance. He has a similar profile to Hurd but Hurd is more athletic. Jennings has a bit of climb to make the 53-man roster. Granted if Hurd fails to comeback or even busts, I think Jennings can fill the role that Shanahan hoped Hurd can fill in a big receiver that can play multiple positions and make plays with the ball in hand. For a team there’s nothing wrong with getting insurance in case a certain part you want doesn’t work. It sucks for Jennings but if he does well in camp but gets cut due to no room I won’t be surprised if another team immediately picks him up. UDFA
Despite the draft being done there still was guys that can make an impact that didn’t get drafted. So with that here are some interesting 49ers UDFA UDFA Jamychal Hasty, Running Back, Baylor
Shanahan is known for crapping out production from no names at running back. All he needs is a guy that can one cut and be fast. Jamychal Hasty can one cut and be fast, he is an Athlete with burst and speed. He will probably replace fan favorite Matt Breida in being that speedster. He also did make some plays in the passing game at Baylor and if he can do that in the NFL as well that’d be great. UDFA Chris Finke, Wide Receiver, Notre Dame
Chris Finke is your stereo typical white slot receiver. He can run routes well and make tough plays over the middle. A real gym rat, a last guy out first guy in type guy. Jokes aside I personally think he’s Trent Taylor insurance, a guy that can just get open at the sticks and be an option for Jimmy G on third downs but if he ends up more, well, nice. UDFA Darrion Daniels, Defensive Tackle, Nebraska
Daniels is a big dude who can hold his ground on the line of scrimmage. He doesn’t offer much in the pass rush but in the run game he can take double teams well. If he can be a great Run defender and be D-line depth it’s a good signing. Conclusion
The 49ers in this draft went the opposite of what analytics wanted--they decided that they would rather go for quality of prospects than quantity of prospects. The front office mentioned that the reason that they weren’t that desperate for mid round picks was because they felt the roster was well set and it would be harder for those mid round picks to make the team. Heck--out of the 22 starters last year’s super bowl appearing, 19 of them will be returning. So, it's reasonable to think that there’s not much room. Instead of the shotgun approach to the draft they are hitching this drafts success in Brandon Aiyuk, Javon Kinlaw and Trent Williams (even though Williams is not a rookie). It’s not a bad set of names to bet on and they did the best they could over the offseason to try to run the table again. I’m excited to see these new names and how they’ll fit, and I’m also excited to see what new fun plays that Shanahan will reveal. 53 Man Roster prediction
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens, CJ Beathard
RB: Raheem Mostert, Kyle Juszcsyk, Tevin Coleman, Jerrick Mckinnon
WR: Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne, Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Taylor, Jalen Hurd, Dante Pettis
TE: George Kittle, Charlie Woerner. Ross Dwelley
OL: Trent Williams, Laken Tomlinson, Weston Richburg, Daniel Brunskill, Mike Mcglinchey, Justin Skule, Shone Coleman, Ben Garland, Colton Mckivitz
DL: Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw, DJ Jones, Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Solomon Thomas, Kentavious Street, Ronald Blair, Darrion Daniels, Kerry Hyder
LB: Fred Warner, Kwon Alexander, Dre Greenlaw, Azeez Al Shaair, Jonas Grififn
CB: Richard Sherman, Emmanuel Moseley, Kwaun Williams, Akhello Witherspoon, Tim Harris, DJ Reed
Safety: Jimmie Ward, Jacquiski Tartt, Tarvarius Moore, Marcell Harris
Specialist: LS, Kyle Nelson; K, Robbie Gould; P, Mitch Wishnowsky
2020 NFC Playoff Picture Predictions
submitted by sportspalaceblogs to Saints [link] [comments]
Recently, I’ve been seeing a lot of people give their predictions for the 2020 NFL playoff picture. However, a lot of the rankings that I have seen lack thorough explanations and mostly revolve around public hype. Subsequently, along with my ranking I will include an explanation and my projected wins for each team to determine I think each team will beat their projected wins. 2 weeks ago, I released my predictions for the 2020 AFC Playoff Picture. Now, having knowledge of the 2020 NFL Draft and some more offseason moves, I am going to be breaking down my 2020 NFC Playoff Picture in this blog. Because I believe the NFC is going to be much more competitive in terms of fighting for playoff spots, I will also be mentioning a few “in the hunt” teams, who I think might just slip their way into a playoff spot.
NFC Playoff Picture:
- New Orleans Saints
- San Francisco 49ers
- Dallas Cowboys
- Minnesota Vikings
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Green Bay Packers
In the Hunt:
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Los Angeles Rams
- Chicago Bears
- Arizona Cardinals
- New Orleans Saints - The tough thing about the NFC is that you have 10 teams projected from 8.5 wins to 10.5 wins, so there is a lot more uncertainty as opposed to the AFC. Sitting at the top projected 10.5 wins is the Saints and the 49ers. A lot of people think that this season maybe the 49ers will fall back to Earth. There’s been a lot of talk about Tampa Bay taking the division this year, but I think the Saints being one of the most consistently better teams in the NFC aren’t ready to hand over the division just yet. The team went 13-3 despite missing QB Drew Brees for 5 full games, but unfortunately got beat on a first-round bye and paid the price with another heart-breaking playoff loss to the Vikings. Not much to say about the Saint’s 2020 Draft, as they only had 3 picks, and I wasn’t necessarily impressed or disappointed by their selections. Overall, I expect the Brees/Thomas duo to remain the best in the league. Furthermore, I expect the Saints to have a top 5 Saints offensive line and I expect their defense to finish in the 10-12 range just like last year. So, while I love what I’m seeing from the Buccaneers, I’m going to wait before suggesting that the 7-9 team can jump ahead of the 13-3 team. Because there’s no real reason to see a huge drop off in their performance, I’m going to project the Saints to secure a 11-5 record (thus, beating their projected 10.5 wins), which I think will be good enough to secure the first-round bye spot.
- San Francisco 49ers - There’s been a lot of talk about seeing a drop off in the 49ers performance and having the Seattle Seahawks take over the division. While this is certainly possible, I’m not going to deem it the most likely scenario. This will arguably be the most competitive division, as I don’t think anyone would be shocked to see any team in the NFC West slip into the playoffs. But the thing that stands out to me with the San Francisco 49ers is their defense. I expect this defense to remain in the top 2 or 3 next year and I have the defense of the Rams, Seahawks, and Cardinals all easily outside my top 10. So while it is true that the Seahawks have a better QB in Russell Wilson and a better RB in Chris Carson, I believe the 49ers remain the more well-rounded team. The 49ers and the Saints will go head-to-head this year. Last year's matchup was a shootout with the 49ers winning 48-46. I expect the Saints to retaliate and secure the win with home-field advantage in the upcoming season. Due to their tough division, I’m going to go ahead and say that the 49ers finish 10-6. I think this will be good enough to win the division once again, but not good enough to beat their projected 10.5 wins.
- Dallas Cowboys - I think for many people, it’s pretty clear that this division is up for either the Cowboys or Eagles to grab. Both fanbases swear that this will be their year as always and both teams are projected to win 9.5 wins. The reason I chose the Cowboys is because their offense is much better overall. This is an offense that averaged a league-high 431.5 yards/game as compared to the Eagles 360.8 yards/game. The Eagles secured the division last year ending the regular season with 4 straight wins, but it wasn’t pretty. I expect the Eagles to have maybe a slightly better defense and offensive line, but the 2 teams are very similar in both categories. I’m certainly not a fan of the Cowboys, but they played much better than an 8-8 team last year. Under new head coach Mike McCarthy, I expect the Cowboys to finally live up to their potential this year. They had a significantly better NFL Draft than the Eagles, getting absolute steals in WR CeeDee Lamb (at pick #17) and CB Trevon Diggs (at pick #51), and getting good value on just about every other pick. The Cowboys have a better RB in Ezekiel Elliot and more offensive weapons for Dak Prescott. Although they will face some tough matchups, I’m expecting at least 10 wins out of this team, thus beating their projected 9.5 wins.
- Minnesota Vikings - I am certainly aware of the fact that the vast majority of people expect the Green Bay Packers to win this division. With the betting odds set at +150 for the Packers to win the division and +160 to the Vikings respectively, it’s going to be closer than a lot of people think. The Vikings had the most draft picks in the league, and I cannot complain about any of them. Justin Jefferson will make up for the absence of Stefon Diggs. They got a strong CB in Jeff Gladney and great value in OT Ezra Cleveland at the 58th pick. Of course, I cannot say the same for the Green Bay Packers. I don’t think any team in this division will secure more than 10 wins; the Packers and Vikings have very similar schedules and they are brutal. I’m giving the Vikings a slight edge just because I think they have a better defense and more offensive weapons. I’m going to predict that the Vikings finish with either 9-7 or 10-6, so I think taking over 9 wins is likely to result in a win or a push.
- Seattle Seahawks - Okay, so I’ve already explained why I’m not sold on the Seahawks winning the division. Ranking each of these teams’ success in the NFL 2020 Draft, it would have to be the Cardinals, the 49ers, the Rams, then the Seahawks. For the Seahawks, I didn’t love their use of a first round pick on LB Jordyn Brooks. While I understand the idea of trying to give Russell Wilson some passing options in drafting 2 tight ends and a wide-receiver, I don’t think enough emphasis was placed on building their defense and offensive lines. However, I do love their 2020 schedule. I expect at least 3 divisional wins, and perhaps 4 out of 5 wins in some very favorable matchups against the Falcons, the Dolphins, the Giants, the Redskins, the Jets. Even their remaining 5 games against the Patriots, Bills, Eagles, Cowboys, and Vikings are all winnable games, so I expect 2-3 wins here. Overall, I still expect a below average defense and offensive line in the 2020 season, but if there’s any quarterback who can persevere under these circumstances, it’s gotta be Russell Wilson. I think the projected wins of 9.5 is set pretty accurately, as I expect the Seahawks to finish the season with 9 or 10 wins.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers - With the addition of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, there is more hype around this team than any other. While I am not usually one to buy into all the hype, I cannot deny the impressive talent on this team. They improved their offensive line (especially with OT Tristan Wirfs), they are projected to be a top 10 defense, and overall, they did very well in the 2020 NFL Draft. I think RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn will fit into the offense nicely, and I think the Buccaneers are making out to be a very well-rounded team. Last year, the Bucs pass defense was pretty bad, so the coaching staff would give Jameis Winston the green light to make some dangerous plays, which led to a lot of touchdowns and passing yards but also a lot of interceptions. Tom Brady, despite taking a lot of criticism, was actually pretty successful in long-passing plays, completing an impressive 41.7% of deep ball throws. Tom Brady is also very cautious, often throwing the ball away as opposed to taking a sack or making a dangerous throw. Comparing Jameis Winston and Tom Brady is like comparing apples to oranges, but I think Brady makes for a more consistent and well-rounded team. The Bucs played much better than a 7-9 team last year; they lost a lot of close one-possession games. And now they’ve upgraded their team in just about every category. I think they can pick up 4 division wins, and they do have some favorable matchups outside their division in the Giants, the Raiders, the Lions, the Chargers, the Broncos, and the Bears. The betting line for regular season wins is set at 9.5 (with the o9.5 set at -160 and u9.5 at +130). While I do not think they will take over the division just yet, I am expecting 9 or 10 wins from Tampa Bay, so I think the line is set pretty accurately so I’m going to suggest a no-play on this one.
- Green Bay Packers - It would’ve been really cool to see this team finally draft a solid WR in the first round, but instead they decided to trade up for QB Jordan Love when there is a very good chance they could have gotten him without trading up. They needed to build their defense and they needed to give Aaron Rodgers a solid target receiver besides Davante Adams, but instead he got an apprentice. And let us be honest, the Packers 13-3 record was a bit deceiving last year. We’re talking about a team that had frighteningly close matchups against the Redskins and Lions (both times), and then lost to the Chargers 11-26. I think we are likely to see tension between Aaron Rodgers and coach Matt LaFleur, and I don’t like the direction in which I see them heading. The season win total for the Green Bay Packers is set at 9.5, and I’m thinking they will fall just short and finish the season 9-7.
The Hunt: Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals
I genuinely hate to leave these teams out, especially the Rams and the Bears, because I think these teams are underrated. Due to the tough competition in the NFC, I think teams will need to get at least 9 wins to secure a wildcard spot. If there’s any division where 3 teams will make the playoffs, it has to be the NFC West.
Cardinals - Between the Cardinals (projected 7.5 wins) and the Rams (projected 8.5 wins), I love the improvements the Cardinals are making to their team but I just don’t think they’re there yet, mainly because of their defense.
Rams - A lot of people think the Rams are going to get only 5-7 wins next year, but I think it’s an over exaggeration from last year. The issue is they are no longer a top 5 defense and Jared Goff is under constant pressure under the Ram’s poor offensive line. But I still think there’s a lot of talent on this team. My best guess is that they finish with an even record, but I wouldn’t doubt it that they go 9-7 and secure a wildcard spot.
Eagles - I’ve heard the argument so many times; with Carson Wentz battling injury and a not-so-good receiving corps, they still managed to win the division. So, it only makes sense that with a healthy Carson Wentz and the addition of WR Jalen Reagor that they’ll win the division again, right? Eeehhh…...this is purely speculation to me. The Eagles were lucky to make the playoffs last year after losing to teams like the Falcons, the Lions, and the Dolphins. On the Eagles depth chart, Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffrey, and Miles Sanders all appear questionable so who knows what to expect. I think the Eagles have a great offensive line, a pretty good defense, and if they manage to stay healthy there’s a good chance they can secure 9+ wins and make playoffs. But for me, I don’t think they had a great offseason, nor did they do good in the NFL 2020 Draft. So there’s just too many question marks to place them over any of the 7 teams listed as of now.
Bears - Despite acquiring QB Nick Foles, there’s a good chance Trubisky will remain the starting quarterback. The Bears still have a solid defense but with only having draft picks in Rounds 2, 5, and 7, there wasn’t too much room to significantly improve their O-line. I’m not too high on the NFC North this year but I think the Bears get an especially bad rep. If they can figure it out offensively and pull out 9 wins, they would likely secure a wildcard spot and perhaps even take the division. 2020 NFC Playoff Predictions
2020 Rookie Ranking Capstone
Author’s Note: submitted by Killtec7 to DynastyFF [link] [comments]
I just wrote 3500 words of gibberish. I’m washed boys. I’ll bold some of the highlights; but don’t punish yourself too much or expect a ton out of it. Reads more like a recap into decision making without a ton of time taken to walk through the individual pieces of that process.
- I'll answer specific questions in the comments
- First 3 rounds of 3 completed rookie drafts
- Top 3 RBs undeniable
- CeeDee makes 4
- Burrow and Tua are indecipherable by my accounts
- Don’t pin yourself down when drafting in the first 30 picks, don’t waste time on players that you are going to make every excuse to avoid drafting. Nut up and call the ball
- CD #6 overall on Dallas’ board, Jones intent on him wearing #88, Amari on team friendly deal after 2021 season, Gallup’s contract is up after 2021 (early guess is Amari gone, Lamb/Gallup)
- Leaned upside on Shenault after months of poo-pooing him. Great value right now in the early second
- Trautman, 4 picks traded for him, top 40 player on the Saints boards
- Measure your expectations—even through the excitement of a perfect draft realize that if you’re lucky you might have drafted a, one, uno, stud OR long-term fantasy player
2020 Rookie Process to Date:
Small side note,
I have stepped down as Moderator. When I get passionate about something—well, I tend to go overboard...take a brief look at my post history. Either way summer is fast approaching, and it is just a good time to reprioritize things in life. Big note.
This is not a traditional ranking of players. If that is your expectation, this will not be your cup of tea. This is my cathartic debrief and recap from my rookie draft season; I’ll throw out a few trains of thoughts on a few players, hopefully some interesting nuggets that’ll help people, but I understand if most are displeased.
Another year in the books of discussing and allowing data & historical precedence to carry us through the months. Mentally I am already onto 2021 and will probably put out a “Notes on” soon. But for now, let us work through my final rankings of the 2020 class. Things obviously change, more data is pouring out of teams, the off-season will be unique due to COVID-19 and more information will come as our takes metastasize to our brain. This post is going to bring most people far less utility.
Just the way I’ve written it, for that I am sorry. But I wanted to dig at my mindset while I was drafting less every potential hypothetical
that we twist ourselves into knots over with these exercises.
In order to deliver my usual posts it requires more nuance than I am willing to produce currently. Some may think, “why bother?” Well, my rookie drafts are done for the season and I thought it would be nice to have a conversation, and hopefully pull people into a broader conversation. Please bear with me, while I used data to assign tiers, much of the decisions making done within the tiers was done on feelings that emerged from digesting that data.
I have Burrow and Tua far closer than most people, they are tiered for me. Especially when there is a major discrepancy in draft value required to secure them, I will prioritize taking Tua.
There is a good argument for Justin Herbert in the conversation, but I have never been high on his tools, and collegiate production. Love enters the conversation as the true definition of a “dynasty investment.”
I would be willing to roster a few other guys; Hurts, Fromm, Eason, Gordon but I would not consider them any sooner than the third or fourth round of rookie drafts.
- Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals [-]
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins [-]
- Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers [-]
- Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers [-]
Running Back Rankings
Look at the last 20 years of bell-cow running backs with successful rushing QBs and almost all of them average 100+ scrimmage yards/game. Dobbins will be ranked higher than Taylor by the consensus sooner rather than later.
Taylor is still a safe talent on a very good running team with limited competition (sorry Mack & Hines); but I’m not certain how anyone right now can ignore CEH or Dobbins. Below I’ll rank them in the order that’ll piss off the most people, but I would take the guy you can get for the best value in your draft. Today that might be Dobbins, tomorrow it might be Taylor.
If you’re picking at 1, it’s a tough choice. Kansas City and Baltimore are well run programs. CEH collegiate profile was incomplete, only one year of stud production, but does that mean anything in Kansas City? Dobbins was special at Ohio State, but does that lack of preparation in year 2 seep back in now that he’s in the NFL? Is Taylor more concerned with owning Toppers’ Pizza locations in Madison WI than playing football? We all find our reasons to take our guys.
Cam Akers and D’Andre Swift will share a tier, again take the guy you believe in or the guy you can get for the best value.
Everyone else ranked is in a grab bag tier, grab them where-ever is most prudent, I’ve assigned rough values based on where I’ve seen them go and where I start considering taking them. Anyone not listed is considered a round 3/round 4 guy that I’m not concerning myself with. I may love the Anthony McFarland fit/pick but I am not going to waste more words on it.
Rank change [-] speaks to the change of tiering in this case, not a change in position rank.
- JK Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens [+1]
- Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts [-]
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs [+1]
- Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams [+1]
- D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions [-]
- AJ Dillon. Green Bay Packers [mid to late Round 2 of your rookie draft]
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers [mid to late Round 2]
- Antonio Gibson, Washington Redskins [Round 2/3 turn]
- Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers [Round 3]
Wide Receiver Rankings
- CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys [-]
- Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings [-]
- Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles [+2]
- Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars [+6]
- Bryan Edwards, Las Vegas Raiders [-2]
- Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts [+1]
- Denzel Mims, New York Jets [-1]
- Devin Duvernay, Baltimore Ravens [UR]
- Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams [UR]
Am I missing a few guys? Absolutely I am. These are the guys, for the most part that I am targeting. In theory, Jerry Jeudy is my 2nd ranked wide receiver; Henry Ruggs is my 5th ranked receiver. When it comes down to molding a draft board; where I’m seeing Jeudy go I NEED one of my top 3 RBs; hell I’ll move up 1 or 2 spots to make sure it happens. Beyond that I am in the strong lean Akers > Jeudy camp.
To further highlight this, I do like Jeudy. But in this moment..I want, CEH-Dobbins-Taylor-Akers, Burrow-Tua, and CeeDee over him. That means the earliest I am drafting Jeudy is 8 and the board has to fall that way. I'd have to be the Dallas Cowboys to have a pick in that range and also have the board fall that way. I'm just not getting Jeudy.
I want Akers-Swift-Tua-Reagor-Jefferson where Ruggs commonly comes off the board. You should absolutely be considering Aiyuk when he slips into the second, or Claypool anywhere from the mid second on. You’ll figure that out—you’ll have your preferences. I have mine.
So here is the crux of all of this, three, real, live drafts and the results for them.
Teams are color-coated (no color alignment between drafts, bright red in Draft A is not the guy that is bright red in Draft C); my selections, the player’s name is highlighted in orange. Two of the drafts went to 4 rounds, a third to 6; at the time of this screen capture Draft C had just gotten through the third round.
A freshly booted devy superflex league, TE premium, PP1D, draconian QB scoring (+6 touchdowns, -4 turnovers), QB/SF/1RB/1W1TE/5FLEX, 10 teams. Going into it the startup, I went stud-only early and then poured capital into Devy and Rookie picks. My baseline roster of note was Wentz-Wilson-Saquon-Nuk. Devy picks yielded Pickens, Garrett Wilson, Najee Harris.
At 1.05, the pick was always CeeDee Lamb. My flair is Lamb Brigade, I’ve been on Lamb since before the season. The Cowboys’ having Lamb as their 6th rated player, and Jerry requesting that he wears Irvin and Dez’s #88 only solidifies it for me. This is dynasty. Cooper is on a team friendly deal after the 2021 season, Gallup is due for resigning after 2021, I trust Lamb to hit his markers (500+ yards year 1, better year 2).
My expectation is a Marvin Harrison-Reggie Wayne or Andre Johnson-DeAndre Hopkins type come up. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t give JK Dobbins a thought—but it was CeeDee ForMe. Let’s be clear, Dobbins is the safer play here. I just have a favorite. Reading through this I want to further clarify this pick. It was a numbers game for me. I have Lamb >> Jeudy whereas I have Dobbins only > Akers. By counting the picks I liked my chances of getting Akers at 8. Didn't work out that way.
At 1.08, I was originally hoping I might get my first share of Akers. That wasn’t to be and this particularly decision point wasn’t difficult either. I counted out the players I liked, Jefferson, Swift, Reagor, Tua; and asked myself who was going to be there at 2.01. Least likely to be there was Tua because of superflex and positional scarcity. There are absolutely some worlds I take one of the other 3; but not this one.
At 2.01, best of the rest. Reagor was the easy choice for me. Let’s be clear here I am a huge fan of Reagor, had him as my WR2 coming into the 2019 season. Do not get caught expecting him to be a year 1 dynamo. Nothing would surprise me, in the same vein Ertz/Goedert will get there 200 targets and I suspect Alshon and DeSean will be in the gameplan to some degree (over under around 200 targets if healthy).
Cap restraints make me reluctant to believe either player gets shipped before the season. There is
room to consider Ruggs here instead of Reagor.
At 2.03, this was my first Laviska share. It was perplexing to be honest. If you’ve read any of my work to this point—I think you’re surprised I have two shares of Laviska. Part of it was the post-draft interviews, Jacksonville talking about ‘Viska getting a good medical eval and that they believe his surgeries with good rehabilitation habits have corrected all of his nagging issues; probably a pipedream.
There is an air of upside to this guy that I can’t shrug off, he has sink in his routes that are second to none in this class. When I looked around at Mims, Aiyuk, Love, Pittman, Hamler, Higgins, I simply do not feel the same about their profiles. Let’s highlight that, “I did not feel the same.” Toss in Fournette on his way out, myself being a bit of a Jay Gruden-stan, and Jacksonville and Viska hooking up that night to discuss their plans for him. I can’t shake the upside. This is a high-risk pick—but I LOVE this value in the early to mid-second.
Even if he is a stud, I promise you I will joke until the end of the time that I expect him to be on my IR at any moment.
At 2.10, my boy, Bryan Edwards. It’s been a long time. Two years of work and we finally made it. My first share of Bryan Edwards. I am led to believe that he was going to put up a great combine at 6-3, 215; he immediately slots in as their iso-X; and Mayock sang so many praises I had to catch my breath. This draft has been all heart for me and the statistical profiles of every one of these guys have my back. I was uneasy with letting Dillon go here. I frantically tried to trade up for him before and after the Edwards pick. Just such a good value for Dillon. I later found out that the 3.02 was insta-drafting either Edwards or Dillon so I was screwed either way and in my heart of hearts I’m glad I have Edwards.
The one problem with this draft, no immediate starters to fill into those FLEX spots for this draft. I was so busy chasing my guys that I am criminally thin at RB on this roster (although I would have gone Akers at 8 to remedy this in the moment—probably not the best choice in hindsight); thankfully I had a good late draft, while people were scooping up third and fourth round rookie picks I was grab DeSean Jackson’s, Marvin Jones types that by week 4 or 5 of the coming season I should be more comfortable with my lineup.
A newly acquired league that might be a little softcore for my tastes. I constantly have to remind myself that it’s only 4PT passing TD, 1QB and fairly small starting lineups for 12 teams (QB/2RB/2W1TE/2FLEX). The roster is pretty shallow for my tastes, but I do like the starting lineup, the most notable assets include Wentz-Elliott-Adams-Odell-Andrews.
At 2.06, the board was already light. There were guys there we can convince ourselves of, but I was pretty much down to Edwards-Dillon-Tua-Burrow. The ground swell in the league suggested that a QB was likely going to be there at 2.12, even if I was just stashing Love for the next half decade; who cares it’s 2.12. Knowing that most of the league was aware of my online presence, I decided to go Edwards. Looking back at the move, I probably should have gone with the upside presented in AJ Dillon’s profile—but you’re trying to make the best out of a crap sandwich at this point in the draft, regardless of what anyone is trying to pump you full of.
At 2.08, I lucked out and Dillon was there, easy insta-draft.
At 2.12, I probably played myself. It’s 1QB, I don’t expect to have to start Tua year one, I have a general affinity for him—and let’s be honest; do you really want to bet significant money on who will have a better career? As you can tell—at this point I went full “screw it.” Will I come to regret the pick? Probably. Will it undermine my team in this league—in 1QB, 4pt passing TD, nah.
At 3.10, I traded for this pick. Honestly, I had 3 concurrent rookie drafts running and I was patently sick of them. Waay too many people were running most of their 8 hour clocks and I was tired of waiting. I traded 2, 2020 4ths (became Quez Watkins and James Proche) and a 2021 4th to get up to 3.10 and end my draft. What if I told you the Saints traded not 1, not 2, but 4 picks to move up to get Trautman, and then after that came out and said that he was a top 40 rated player on their board. What if then, after that I told you their only tight end of note is 33 years old. Hi, one Adam Trautman please.
This is the coup de grace. This is my Mona Lisa, so much went right, I don’t even know how to react. This league is superflex, ppr, 1QB/1SF/2RB/3W1TE/2FLEX/1DST, 12 teams, 6pt passing touchdowns.
Tua went 1.01 because the 1.01-owner’s team (newly adopted orphan) is legitimately bad, full rebuild, he’s aiming Lawrence next year. He has Tua-Burrow evenly ranked, his hope is that Tua gets redshirted this year and does his team no good.
The owner that selected both CEH and Jonathan Taylor considered Burrow over Taylor but is pretty solid at QB. The 2/3 owner tried literally everything to get 4/5 to acquire CeeDee. At one point he was offering Evans straight up. No dice. He had quite the run of attempts to trade, and they were clear overpays by most people’s standards, no one wanted to budge; he did it all throughout the first and second rounds.
We all assumed Burrow at 4, it’s the only reason an overpay won’t work, right? BOOM, Jeudy. At this point I don’t know what to do with my hands. The #5 owner was planning Dobbins 100% of the way and never expected Burrow to be right there. He’s trying everything to get out of the #5 pick and turn it into gold. The 2/3 owner is throwing everything and the kitchen sink at him—not good enough. I’m sweating bullets for my Lamb share..and finally the #5 relents and takes Burrow.
Examples like this, is why I tell people not to just draft a guy and assume they'll get a kings-ransom elsewhere. Sure 1-3 teams in that superflex league might be interested, but in the moment, at likely his cheapest price no one expressed interest in Burrow. Don't expect that to change suddenly over night. To further that example, If Ruggs some how falls to you at 2.06 and you don't like him, don't suddenly expect that'll you'll be able to turn him for a profit later--the league, or at least the people on the board and active on that day are telling you they really aren't that interested.
At 1.06, I take Lamb. The Draft A and C were running pretty close to one another so when I was on the clock (many shared owners between A & C) in A, I was waiting for my pick in C so that I could ensure I didn’t get sniped for Lamb. Reasons above described why I’m all in on Lamb—past post history just furthers it. Why listen to me when you can listen to the mountains of pundits.
At 1.07, this was the beauty. This was the death blow, I can’t believe I got Dobbins here. Just a stupid bit of luck that the 1.01 owner is getting cute (who knows it may work), the 1.04 owner was glued to Jeudy, and the 1.05 owner felt he couldn’t pass on Burrow.
I attempt to make plays for Reagor and Akers as they fell, no dice anywhere.
At 2.04, at this point I had my first share of Viska in Draft A, this being Draft C; I just followed through on my convictions. I did consider Aiyuk but felt no loyalty to that pick. Taking perceived upside.
At 2.08, again I went heart. In this draft I was quite afraid there were 2 people that would snipe me on Edwards just to mess with me. We are a pretty good bunch and atleast 1 of them is fully aware of my interest in Edwards, the other 1 should have had an inkling after we facetimed through day 1 and day 2. Both picked between 2.04 and 3.04 so I wasn’t going to take the risk. Part of me wishes I would have taken Dillon and risked Edwards for 3.04, but it is what it is.
I did put out offers to try to get Dillon, in hindsight I could have gotten something done at 2.10 if I was a little more forthcoming and persistent, so that kind of sucks.
At 3.04, the original plan was Gibson with the way the board was falling. Didn’t happen that way. I had already taken Trautman in Draft A and was well aware of the boons assigned to his profile, 3.04 was my last pick of note in this draft so while closing my eyes to the availability of Moss-Kelley-Hamler; I see the upside and might regret it again—fatigue of the process and a need in that league for TE drove me back to Trautman.
How did I come to my decisions? A lot of it was based on profile and statistical modeling. Even the best prospects by any modeled outcome have a 50-50 chance of succeeding. Most of your top prospects in any given year it’s about 20%. Try to make good value decisions, try to value more complete profiles, consider all of the intel out there on prospects but at the end of the day; who am I? Who am I to say CeeDee is going to succeed and do it big? I’m not, and I won’t; I just believe based on every piece of data out there that I like my odds of the coin flipping what I call. Same goes with Dobbins, Taylor, Clyde Edwards-Helaire. They just scream “I have a role and I’m going to give you fantasy points.”
We aren’t honest enough with ourselves when we draft these guys. I can speak glowingly of each and everyone one of my guys—hell I can speak negatively about the guys I drafted (Hi Laviska) but none of that matters, what matters is what the board looks like when it is your turn to draft, what it will look like after you draft, and whether any of it matters.
Tips to Help You with Your Upcoming Draft
- Go watch post-draft coach/GM interviews. They are fluff, they’ll say things that you’ll wrongly assign value to; there is a good argument that I’ve done that above. But some of them are going to tease to you just how highly they valued a guy (Diontae Johnson, round 1, Bruce Arians miffed that the Steelers sniped him), like Trautman, like Lamb. Will it eventually make these guys more successful? Nah, but it may just tell us how much rope a prospect has..
- Statistical models aren’t the end all be all—but dismissing them entirely is foolhardy at best, they are built to give you better odds. Problem is people like to make all their decisions on those odds. Does it matter if a model assigns a 22% probability to player A and a 19% probability of success to player B? Generally no, models based on football data do not have that level of viability. As a rule of thumb say a range of predicted success is 1% to 50%. I would consider the margins probably about 10 percentage points, so generally buckets guys between 40-50, 30-40, etc etc. But if one guy is 41% and another guy is 39% I'd say the decision point is muddled and unclear, but if one guys is 41% and the other guy is 29%, then I'd consider it; even then it's roughly 2:5 and 1:3 odds, are they really all that discernible in practice?
- Understand a players role, watch for yourself, and listen to others. I’d say my evaluation process is about 30% defining for myself, 20% listening to others, 30% statistical models, and 10% bias developed from learning about the player as a person, 10% hype baby.
- Nothing is the end all be all. I think I’ve highlighted that at every turn. We are going to pin ourselves to X means they’ll be successful. It could be a key/a tell at a player's potential, it likely is not.
GM-Driven 3 Round Mock Draft (With Trades)
submitted by tuhnayhk to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]
I've generally had a complaint that mock drafts are blind to GM tendencies, team schemes, and upcoming contracts / need for cap flexibility, so a couple friends and I used quarantine to throw together a three round mock draft (trades inclusive) that tries to pay attention to this. Obviously, we can't know your team's scheme and history as well as you, but we figured it'd be great to share our mock draft anyway and invite any thoughts on it. NFL_Draft
can be a little critical, as it should be given we're making guesses that impact the future of your franchise, but we're also big boys so feel free to tear this thing to shreds (or compliment it if you feel so inclined). The thing is far from perfect, so to add to the discussion and educate us a little bit, please feel free to let us know what picks you liked/disliked.
To make this easier to read we broke it out similar to Matt Miller's early mock drafts, with Round 1 up front with short descriptions on each pick followed by Rounds 2 and 3 with no detail. Additionally, we've added in the back a summary of trades as well as a break out by team.
T-5 days until Thursday!
Round 1: CINCINNATI: Joe Burrow, QB
There's not much to explain here. What doesn't Cincinnati need? That list starts and ends at WR. They could take any number of players here and they would start tomorrow, but when you're building a team from the ground up, you take a QB, and who better than the guy who threw for 60 TDs, 5,671 yards, a 76% completion percentage, won a national championship, and ripped a cigar in the locker room… small hands and all. WASHINGTON: Chase Young, EDGE
Say what you will about Dan Snyder, and you're probably right, but the guy tends to make the right call in the top 10. Since buying the team in 1999, the Redskins have picked in the top 10 an amazing 9 times, but those picks have been Champ Bailey, LaVar Arrington, Chris Samuels, Sean Taylor, Carlos Rogers, LaRon Landry, Trent Williams, RGIII, and Brandon Scherff. Every single one of those players has been a Pro Bowler. Not much to overthink here. Dan Snyder gets a generational talent and easily the best player in the draft, bringing back the hometown kid. DETROIT: Jeff Okudah, CB
Patricia's defense is predicated upon a strong secondary playing predominantly press-man coverage, sticking to receivers long enough to create coverage sacks. While Justin Coleman has been vastly underrated for the Lions, there's also no way to play him on the outside, and the Lions will need someone to line up opposite Desmond Trufant with Slay in Philadelphia. Taking a DB in the top 10 is always risky, but so is trading down here. Patricia insists on a versatile defense with no particular scheme, and Okudah's well-rounded skillset including strength as a cover corner, in press-man, in off-man, and zone fits perfectly in Detroit. NY GIANTS: Tristan Wirfs, OL\
Gettleman is no stranger to controversy, but his pick here is far from that. Isaiah Simmons is the best player on the Board, but the young cornerstones of this franchise stand behind a line that with the exception of Will Hernandez probably shouldn't be there in four years. Lucky for Gettleman, he gets his pick of OL, four of whom are arguably worth a top 10 pick almost any year. While Judge may want to take the most NFL-ready prospect in Wills, I imagine Gettleman can't pass up on the athleticism and versatility of Wirfs. With his speed in the open field, quickness in getting to the second level and ability to make blocks in the open field, Wirfs can become Saquon's best friend pretty quick, especially on screen plays.
*But honestly, leave it to Gettleman to fool everyone and make a pick out of left field. No, literally, this guy could make a pick from left field and ask Brett Gardner to take NJ Transit down to MetLife on Sundays. MIAMI: Tua Tagovailoa, QB
Miami refuses to tank and still wins the Tua Sweepstakes. With all that has gone on in 2020, at least there's some good in the world and Brian Flores is about 40% of it. I completely understand that there are injury concerns about Tua that are hard to overlook. But it's also hard to overlook issues with Justin Herbert -- namely just how off target he could be throwing down the field. I'm not doubting his athleticism or the absolute rocket he has attached to his shoulder, but the fact of the matter is his completion percentage, which is already lower than Tua's, is aided by playing weaker defenses in the Pac-12 and the absolutely absurd number of easy bubble screens and dump passes he throws behind the line of scrimmage. Both QBs are phenomenal, but Tua's accuracy, ability to extend plays, willingness to take hits, and ability avoid sacks outweigh the injury risk. If you're lucky, you have a potential Hall of Fame quarterback, and if you're unlucky, Brian Flores will still probably get you to 7-9 with the Goldman Sachs analyst you call a backup QB. LA CHARGERS: Justin Herbert, QB
I spent most of the last pick talking about why not to pick Justin Herbert, but here's why you should: 6'6", 237 lbs, with easily the best arm in the draft and a Josh Allen-esque ability to move. Oregon's play call didn't give him much of a chance to throw it downfield, but when he did it was brilliant. He's the kind of QB prospect that could have tested like Maurice Claiborne on the Wonderlic and still been drafted 1st overall 10 years ago. However, his inconsistency and inability to leverage his athleticism to feeling comfortable throwing on the run and outside of the pockets relegates him to third on my QB Big Board. I don't know whether I buy that the Chargers are planning on starting Tyrod Taylor this year, but whether Herbert gets his shot this year or next, he has a legitimate chance to be a star. CAROLINA: Isaiah Simmons, LB
Matt Rhule walks into a full re-build with both ownership and CMC's buy-in. The one thing Carolina doesn't have for the first time in nearly two decades is a Pro Bowl LB. Hurney and company fix that immediately by taking the best athlete in the draft. This isn't Carolina's biggest need -- they have only two DTs that are going to make a roster, so I understand the Derrick Brown arguments -- nor is it typically Rhule's favorite position -- I understand arguments that they may try to continue to add to the line to protect their new franchise QB -- but Simmons is just too talented to pass up. He basically lines up everywhere from safety, to linebacker, to nickel linebacker, and even edge. If you need any more convincing, he ran a 4.39 40 (good enough for 5th best by a WR). ARIZONA: Derrick Brown, DT
Keim isn't need blind, but historically he has definitely valued talent over need. If you need proof of that, just go back to last year when Keim and Kingsbury determined Kyler Murray was the best player in the draft and (rightfully) gave up on the Josh Rosen experiment. The Cardinals also just so happen to need a 3-tech guy to anchor the interior of their line, and preferably someone with some versatility given Vance Joseph's scheme (Brown played from 0- to 5-tech at Auburn). The biggest knock is his lack of athleticism, but Brown has shiftiness for his size, attacks at the line, uses his hands well, and explodes through his man. I know a lot of people mock a T here, and that makes sense too, but I just don't see Arizona's line as that urgent of a need that Keim will pass up the best player on the Board. JACKSONVILLE: CJ Henderson, DB
If Dave Caldwell had the remote from Click, I'm pretty sure he'd fast forward to the 2021 draft and grabbing Trevor Lawrence. The 2020 season is going to be an ugly one for Jacksonville, and it's only going to get worse as they explore trading Fournette and Ngakoue. Caldwell won't completely ignore the best player available approach -- see Josh Allen last year -- but he definitely leans toward filling a need, and their secondary is an eye sore. I personally think spending a top 10 pick on a corner with Cam Robinson potentially become a free agent is a mistake, but there's also a mile between Henderson and the next best corner available. I imagine the Jaguars explore a trade down a little bit before taking arguably the best cover corner in the draft.
DENVER - 10
CLEVELAND - 15, 77, 118
Andrew Berry wants Ezra Cleveland, but a top 10 pick is a little rich for him. John Elway wants Henry Ruggs III, but he won't be there at 15. Berry moves back, picking up valuable draft capital to secure rookie contracts for when the bill eventually comes due on the Browns players and they can't afford to extend everyone.
DENVER: Henry Ruggs III, WR
Henry Ruggs III is an OC's dream. The guys finishes every play and does the little things in a way you rarely see on the offensive side of the ball. He's a great route runner with world class speed and endless hustle, whether he's running with the ball after the catch, finishing a block downfield, or making a tackle on special teams. By moving up six picks, Denver leaves Day 1 with suddenly one of the better WR corps in the league. It's amazing it took everyone this long to notice Ruggs III is the top WR in this class, but I guess that's what happens when you play in Tuscaloosa and everyone on the team is an NFL-caliber player. NY JETS: Jedrick Wills, OL
I've seen a lot of mock drafts put a WR here, but I honestly buy that Gase is not that concerned about his WR corps. Not only that, but the value is going to be there in the second round -- especially for a team that needs a big target that can actually go up and get it in the red zone or on a deep route when Darnold wants to gun it downfield. That leaves offensive line as the biggest need, and in particular LT. Gase prefers lineman who are strongest in pass protection, and one of the most NFL-ready OL and pass blockers is somehow still on the Board at 11. Wills can easily slide over the left side and protect Darnold from getting sacked every few snaps, something only mono has been able to do thus far. LAS VEGAS: CeeDee Lamb, WR
Numerous outlets have linked Lamb to Las Vegas, and I'm not one to argue. Gruden and Mayock both typically pick their guys and could care less how other people value them. Lamb may be the best true route-runner in this draft class and his toughness is certainly going to translate to the NFL. I've read the criticisms that he has never been forced to play against press-man in college and that he lacks world class speed, but his strengths more than make up for it and at the end of the day he's one of the more high floor WR prospects I've ever seen. SAN FRANCISCO: Andrew Thomas, OL
Before trading for Emmanuel Sanders, the 49ers were 6-0 with a WR core anchored by Deebo Samuel, Marquise Goodwin, and Kendrick Bourne. They obviously need a WR, but they've also shown they can fair just fine without one. What they would struggle much more to replace is Joe Staley in the supposed 50/50 case he retires. If Staley plays another year, Thomas can kick inside or learn behind him. Shanahan prefers offensive linemen athletic enough to block in a zone scheme, and Thomas is not out-of-this-world athletic presenting a potential issue, but he's also high character and high football IQ, which Shanahan also wants in his players. Would I be surprised if Lynch and Shanahan opted to take Jeudy here? No. Do I see them passing on one of the safest bets to replace Joe Staley? Also, no. TAMPA BAY: Mekhi Becton, OL
There wasn't a ton to overthink here in my book - the Bucs are going to take the best T available at 14, and here it's Becton. Tampa Bay's priority is protecting Tom Brady, and Becton gives them the best chance to do that. In a dream world, they get someone a little more polished and ready to play tomorrow (especially given the likely shortened offseason) but Becton is incredibly mobile for someone his size, able to quickly recover, and strong enough to still get ends outside. He'll need to improve his hands and get better in true dropback pass protection given Brady's tendencies, but he can potentially be a huge piece for a team that needs to re-tool its offensive line. CLEVELAND: Javon Kinlaw, DT
Cleveland's two biggest needs are LT and FS, but if they were going to take a LT here they would have stayed at 10 and Andrew Berry comes from the Howie Roseman school where you don't pay safeties. Given his analytics background, I imagine he takes best player available, and that's easily Kinlaw. While raw, Kinlaw's talent is undeniable. He's long, strong, and has incredibly active hands. Kinlaw honestly looks like David Irving out there sometimes given his ability to manhandle 300lb offensive linemen, but the Browns wouldn't have to deal with all the off-field issues. The Browns can leave Ogunjobi in on base downs and bring in Kinlaw for 2nd and 3rd down pass rush. Getting Kinlaw also gives Berry the flexibility to make Ogunjobi, Richardson, or Billings cap casualties in future seasons if Kinlaw comes along quicker than expected. ATLANTA: K'Lavon Chaisson, EDGE
If you watched Atlanta play last year you know this is going to be a defense-heavy draft. It's easy to see that Atlanta needs an outside corner, but it's also hard to justify taking one here with Okudah and Henderson off the Board. I know Fowler enters the fold this year, but I still think Chaisson provides value in his ability to both get to the QB and drop back into coverage. To be successful in the NFC South, Atlanta is going to need to get to the QB, and quickly. Chaisson has legitimate speed and power coming off the edge, making him an every down player. The CB is still there for Atlanta, but it can wait until the 2nd round. DALLAS: Jerry Jeudy, WR
This is a similar message to Atlanta above. Dallas absolutely needs an outside corner, but it's just not there. Safety is also a need and the best guy is still on the Board, but the Cowboys have also not historically valued safeties in drafts, especially this high. Thirty years of Jerry tells me that he'll take best player available at 17, and while WR isn't a high priority position for the Cowboys Jeudy's value here is just too good to pass up. The defense still needs attention, but you can address that Day 2. Besides, how much do you need defense if you can put up 40+ points per game surrounding Dak with Zeke, Cooper, Jeudy, and that line? And with 40+ points per game, that's at least 5+ cuts to Jerry grinning and high-fiving in the owner's box. MIAMI: Xavier McKinney, S
Brian Flores really started making a name for himself in New England as a safeties coach where the most important piece of a Super Bowl winning defense was Devin McCourty. Miami has plenty of holes, but it also has plenty of picks. The Miami system values versatility and McKinney provides just that as he can play just about anywhere in the secondary. Not only that, but he can provide value as a blitzer as well. The coincidence that this pick was the return for Minkah Fitzpatrick is not lost on me, but another top-tier S from Alabama with a longer runway on his rookie deal is not a bad thing.
NEW ENGLAND - 19
LAS VEGAS - 23, 98
Suggesting the Patriots trade up in any mock draft is a dangerous endeavor, but they also have an absurd number of picks in this year's draft. Giving Las Vegas a compensatory third to move up and get your pick of the draft's top LBs isn't too bad a price to pay.
NEW ENGLAND: Patrick Queen, LB
I'm not going to pretend to know what Belichick is going to do in this draft. It's equally likely that he trades out of the first round as it is he moves up, but I what I do know is the Patriots could use more help at LB. In particular, someone with speed who can blitz up the middle and off the edge. Anyone who watched the CFB Playoffs last year saw the speed Queen had off the edge as well as his ability to cover out of the backfield and underneath. He's equally comfortable dropping into zone as he is speed rushing the edge. High football IQ and athleticism screams Patriot to me and he just so happens to fit a position of need. JACKSONVILLE: Kenneth Murray, LB
Jacksonville is a little hard to mock for in that they have need at just about every position. However, the defense hasn't been the same since Telvin Smith left. With Joe Schobert joining the fold as an inside linebacker and Myles Jack pushing to the weak side, Murray can work on the strong side. You can make an argument that the usage here isn't worth a first round pick or that Murray can lack football IQ at times, but he also possesses incredible speed and playmaking ability. He can get sideline to sideline and blow up plays in the backfield, and that kind of explosiveness can really help tie a defense together. PHILADELPHIA: Justin Jefferson, WR
Philadelphia needs a receiver as bad as I need football right now, and after more than a month in my parents' basement I can tell you that's pretty damn bad. It got bad enough last year I thought the team was going to make an Invincible throwback and call up the guy from the viral fire video for a tryout. You can make an argument for any number of WRs, but Jefferson checks the boxes for Eagles fans: fast and with hands not made of bricks. The guy just had a way of getting open in college, and that's something Philadelphia has really missed the past few years. MINNESOTA: Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE
This is a risky pick in a mock draft. Minnesota's front office does not historically take DL early in the draft - the only one Minnesota has taken in the first 2 rounds in the last 10 years was Shariff Floyd - instead opting to fill in the line with late round players. However, Griffen's departure leaves obvious need here, and the idea of a player with Gross-Matos' intangibles is interesting for a 4-3 defense that loves to dial up blitz packages on 3rd down. His speed, length, and power are things you can't teach, and his ability to maneuver around offensive linemen is particularly impressive at his height. LAS VEGAS: Kris Fulton, DB
Mayock and Gruden trade down from 19 and still grab their next favorite CB prospect along with an additional 3rd round pick. Last year, they demonstrated a desire to fill in team needs with prospects from winning programs. Unless you buy Eli Apple as the outside corner opposite Mullen, this is certainly a position of need. Last year, going after winning players meant a number of Clemson guys. This year, they grab their first National Champion in Fulton. Fulton's ability to stick with his man is why some have him graded as the number 2 CB in this year's class. He's rarely caught out of position, and despite a lack of top-end speed, he shows an incredible ability to recover.
INDIANAPOLIS - 24
NEW ORLEANS - 34, 75, 193
New Orleans really doesn't have a lot of positions of need this year, and make fun of me if you will, but I buy that Sean Payton is okay with Taysom Hill playing QB for at least a season if needbe. That isn't to say the Saints won't draft a QB, just that they won't reach on one at the end of the first and without a second round pick. The Colts on the other hand will - especially if they value Jordan Love as highly as others have speculated in the past month. Indianapolis gets to take advantage of the Saints wanting to trade down and gives up less than they'd ordinarily have to in order to get back into the first round.
INDIANAPOLIS: Jordan Love, QB
Not much to get into here. I don't buy for one second that Jacoby Brissett is the long-term answer in Indianapolis, and there have been a lot of experts suggesting the Colts buy the Jordan Love hype train. The upside here is prototypical size for a NFL QB, strong pocket presence, great arm strength and touch all over the field, and high athleticism. He also comes with a ton of risk, namely his inconsistency, turnovers, dangerous throws across the middle, and his regression last year. I'm not going to sit here and defend the pick too much. I tend not to like QBs who take steps back and throw almost as many interceptions as touchdowns playing in the Mountain West. However, while I personally think there's too much risk for Jordan Love to warrant a Day 1 grade, this isn't a Big Board, it's a Mock Draft, and a lot of people smarter than me have suggested Love is a top 10 caliber talent. If you believe that, then he's certainly worth trading up for and grabbing in the back end of the first round. MINNESOTA: Jaylon Johnson, DB
After Henderson, it's really a toss-up who you think the next best corner is, but Jaylon Johnson should at least be in the discussion. Utah was quietly one of the best defenses in college football last year and Johnson was certainly a part of that. Johnson is highly instinctive with 4.5 speed and good enough height/length. I'm not sure how much his physicality will translate to the next level given his size, but his ability to read plays and act on them should make him a good cover corner at a minimum. If you need proof, look up his pick sixes on Eason and Huntley last year, where he recognizes the play and makes a change to his coverage and a jump on his ball before it's even thrown. Spielman and Zimmer have shown no aversion to drafting DBs in the first round, and with Rhodes and Waynes departing this off-season Johnson helps the Vikings fill an obvious position of need. MIAMI: Josh Jones, OL
Miami could frankly use two tackles, but they wait until it makes sense value-wise and take Josh Jones here. Whoever they pick is going to have to be ready day 1, which makes Austin Jackson out of the question. Jones had a stellar senior year and cemented it at the Senior Bowl. Given he blocked for D'Eriq King he should be comfortable outside of traditional pass sets, which could prove useful if Miami picks Tua as this mock draft predicted. Jones has prototypical size and strength to be an NFL tackle and gets right into the shoulder pads of the defense. The Dolphins have a lot of needs, but thankfully spends its first three picks filling the most important ones. SEATTLE: Julian Okwara, EDGE
Death, taxes, and the Seahawks reaching late in the first round. Even if Clowney chooses to re-sign with Seahawks, the team could use another edge rusher to challenge LJ Collier who put together a whopping two tackles his rookie season. I'm honestly surprised mock draft experts haven't been higher on Okwara. He explodes off the line and uses his length and speed to get around tackles. You need to look no further than his performance vs. Virginia, which he absolutely dominated. His bull-rush is NFL-ready and he has the build and mobility to drop off into coverage as necessary. The criticism will remain given his smaller frame, but the production was clearly there at Notre Dame. BALTIMORE: Cesar Ruiz, OL
The truth is the Ravens don't have a ton of needs and the top LBs are off the Board at this point. If there's a weakness on the Ravens' offensive line it's at the center position. Ruiz gets out of his stance quickly and stays with defenders throughout the play. Criticism of his athleticism is overblown given he's a center. He's also incredibly young, so there's room for growth. TENNESSEE: A.J. Epenesa, EDGE
The Titans biggest need is at corner, but given the number that have gone off the Board already the value just isn't there. Instead, Tennessee can address the hole on their defensive line created by Jurrell Casey's departure. Jeffrey Simmons has the size and athleticism to allow for flexibility in how Tennessee constructs its line, and this means Jon Robinson can approach this pick with a little more of a best player available approach. The best defensive lineman on the Board is A.J. Epenesa. GREEN BAY: Jalen Reagor, WR
Nick Bosa embarrassed the entire city of Green Bay on national television and made clear the need for a new tackle, but I don't think Green Bay addresses that quite yet. Brian Gutekunst comes from the Ron Wolf school of thought about best player available, and the T position is a little drained here. Instead, I think GB chooses to find someone to put opposite Davante Adams. Jalen Reagor's fall into the second round of many mock drafts is hard for me to explain. The production was there in college and the combine only supported what we knew from the tape: Reagor is a superb athlete. I think the biggest knock is drops, which would likely only get worse in the NFL, but pairing him with Adams and Rogers could be absolutely dynamic. His double move is something to behold and he's great after the catch. Putting that next to, and allowing him to learn from, Adams is a match made in heaven.
CLEVELAND - 31, 210
SAN FRANCISCO- 41, 77
San Francisco lacks draft capital given their trades for Dee Ford and Emmanuel Sanders, but has needs. The Browns moved back earlier because Ezra Cleveland is their guy. Berry can't afford to let him go and can get back into the 1st round for a fair price given the Niners need for 2nd and 3rd round picks.
CLEVELAND: Ezra Cleveland, OL
Cleveland trades back into the first round and addresses its biggest position of need by getting somebody to protect Baker Mayfield. If you buy the rumors that Andrew Berry likes Ezra Cleveland, which I do, then it makes sense to grab him here before anyone else can in the early second. KANSAS CITY: A.J. Terrell, DB
Brett Veach and Andy Reid have always valued cornerbacks, and despite the re-signing of Bashaud Breeland the Chiefs are still thin at the position. Given this, I think the Chiefs could go with the next best corner available in their mind. Terrell measures out well with good speed. I'm pretty sure Terrell still has nightmares about Ja'Marr Chase, but so do a lot of CBs not named Cameron Dantzler. That performance shouldn't erase years of strong tape otherwise. Round 2: CINCINNATI: Isaiah Wilson, OL NEW OLREANS: Zack Baun, LB DETROIT: Marlon Davidson, DL NY GIANTS: Josh Uche, EDGE LA CHARGERS: Austin Jackson, OL CAROLINA: Neville Gallimore, DL MIAMI: D'Andre Swift, RB TRADE:
NY JETS - 40
HOUSTON - 48, 120 NY JETS: Michael Pittman Jr., WR SAN FRANCISCO: Denzel Mims, WR JACKSONVILLE: Antoine Winfield Jr., S CHICAGO: Trevon Diggs, DB INDIANAPOLIS: Tee Higgins, WR TRADE:
MIAMI - 45, 173
TAMPA BAY - 56, 154, Future 4th MIAMI: Brandon Aiyuk, WR DENVER: Jeff Gladney, DB ATLANTA: Noah Igbinoghene, DB HOUSTON: Raekwon Davis, DL PITTSBURGH: Robert Hunt, OL CHICAGO: Kyle Dugger, S DALLAS: Cameron Dantzler, DB LA RAMS: J.K. Dobbins, RB PHILADELPHIA: Grant Delpit, S TRADE:
CINCINNATI - 54, 167
BUFFALO - 65, 107 CINCINNATI: Willie Gay Jr., LB BALTIMORE: Laviska Shenault Jr., WR TAMPA BAY: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB LA RAMS: Netane Muti, OL TRADE:
LAS VEGAS - 58, 132
MINNESOTA - 80, 81 LAS VEGAS: Jalen Hurts, QB SEATTLE: Ross Blacklock, DL BALTIMORE: Akeem Davis-Gaither, LB TENNESSEE: Damon Arnette, DB GREEN BAY: Lucas Niang, OL KANSAS CITY: Terrell Lewis, EDGE SEATTLE: Ben Bartch, OL
Round 3: BUFFALO: Curtis Weaver, EDGE WASHINGTON: Cole Kmet, TE DETROIT: John Simpson, OL NY JETS: Jonathan Greenard, EDGE CAROLINA: Shane Lemieux, OL MIAMI: Lloyd Cushenberry III, OL LA CHARGERS: KJ Hamler, WR ARIZONA: Jonathan Taylor, RB JACKSONVILLE: Bryan Edwards, WR CLEVELAND: Ashtyn Davis, S NEW ORLEANS: Cam Akers, RB TAMPA BAY: Justin Madubuike, DL SAN FRANCISCO: Jordan Elliott, DL ATLANTA: Jake Fromm, QB NY JETS: Troy Pride Jr., DB MINNESOTA: Terrell Burgess, S MINNESOTA: Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR DALLAS: Adam Trautman, TE DENVER: Prince Tega Wanogho, OL LA RAMS: Jordyn Brooks, LB DETROIT: Tyler Johnson, WR BUFFALO: Zack Moss, RB NEW ENGLAND: Hunter Bryant, TE NEW ORLEANS: Bryce Hall, DB MINNESOTA: Logan Stenberg, OL HOUSTON: Jeremy Chinn, S LAS VEGAS: Malik Harrison, LB BALTIMORE: Anfernee Jennings, EDGE TRADE:
NEW ENGLAND - 93
TENNESSEE - 100, 195 NEW ENGLAND: James Morgan, QB GREEN BAY: Jacob Eason, QB DENVER: Tyler Biadasz, OL KANSAS CITY: Matt Peart, OL CLEVELAND: Logan Wilson, LB LAS VEGAS: Davon Hamilton, LB NY GIANTS: Matt Hennessy, OL TENNESSEE: Van Jefferson, WR SEATTLE: Kenny Willekes, EDGE PITTSBURGH: Leki Fotu, DL PHILADELPHIA: Troy Dye, LB LA RAMS: Amik Robertson, DB MINNESOTA: Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR BALTIMORE: K'Von Wallace, S
DENVER - 10
CLEVELAND - 15, 77, 118
Andrew Berry wants Ezra Cleveland, but a top 10 pick is a little rich for him. John Elway wants Henry Ruggs III, but he won't be there at 15. Berry moves back, picking up valuable draft capital to secure rookie contracts for when the bill eventually comes due on the Browns players and they can't afford to extend everyone.
NEW ENGLAND - 19
LAS VEGAS - 23, 98
Suggesting the Patriots trade up in any mock draft is a dangerous endeavor, but they also have an absurd number of picks in this year's draft. Giving Las Vegas a compensatory third to move up and get your pick of the draft's top LBs isn't too bad a price to pay.
INDIANAPOLIS - 24
NEW ORLEANS - 34, 75, 193
New Orleans really doesn't have a lot of positions of need this year, and make fun of me if you will, but I buy that Sean Payton is okay with Taysom Hill playing QB for at least a season if need be. That isn't to say the Saints won't draft a QB, just that they won't reach on one at the end of the first and without a second round pick. The Colts on the other hand will - especially if they value Jordan Love as highly as others have speculated in the past month. Indianapolis gets to take advantage of the Saints wanting to trade down and gives up less than they'd ordinarily have to in order to get back into the first round.
CLEVELAND - 31, 210
SAN FRANCISCO- 41, 77
San Francisco lacks draft capital given their trades for Dee Ford and Emmanuel Sanders, but has needs. The Browns moved back earlier because Ezra Cleveland is their guy. Berry can't afford to let him go and can get back into the 1st round for a fair price given the Niners need for 2nd and 3rd round picks.
NY JETS - 40
HOUSTON - 48, 120
WRs haven't fallen off the Board the way many have thought they would at the start of Round 2, but the Niners would be sure to start that trend, potentially with Pittman. As much as Gase likes smaller, fast receivers, the Jets desperately need a big guy who can work with Darnold. Pittman and Darnold have the USC connection already, and it makes sense to move ahead of San Francisco to get him.
MIAMI - 45
TAMPA BAY - 56, 154, 173, Future 4th
With WRs beginning to fly off the Board and Brandon Aiyuk still there due to injury concerns, Miami trades up to get him. Tampa Bay, lacking a ton of immediate needs having already added a T, gets extra draft capital in exchange for moving back to a point where at least one of the top four RBs should remain.
CINCINNATI - 54, 167
BUFFALO - 65, 107
This is a tough one. There are a number of rumors that Cincinnati is enamored with Willie Gay Jr.'s athleticism and ball instincts. If that's true, there could be legitimate fear that the Ravens could take him at 55 or 60 given their needs. The Bills need picks given their trade for Diggs. The Bengals make the call to get ahead of an in division rival for their guy.
LAS VEGAS - 58, 132
MINNESOTA - 80, 81
It's no secret that John Gruden loves his QBs and I think there's a legitimate chance the QB he likes in this draft class that's within reach for him is Jalen Hurts. Getting back into the second round allows him to be the first to take the QBs not projected to go in the first round.
NEW ENGLAND - 93
TENNESSEE - 100, 195
There have been rumors that the Patriots' favorite QB prospect in this draft is James Morgan given his arm and the New England climate. Similarly, he's tied to Green Bay who just so happens to be on the clock at 94. If the rumors are true, Belichick should be willing to pull the trigger to move up and get him.
By Team: ARIZONA:
1.8 - Derrick Brown
3.72 - Jonathan Taylor
1.16 - K'Lavon Chaisson
2.47 - Noah Igbinoghene
3.78 - Jake Fromm
1.28 - Cesar Ruiz
2.55 - Laviska Shenault Jr.
2.60 - Akeem Davis Gaither
3.92 - Anfernee Jennings
3.106 - K'Von Wallace
3.65 - Curtis Weaver
3.86 - Zack Moss
1.7 - Isaiah Simmons
2.38 - Neville Gallimore
3.69 - Shane Lemieux
2.43 - Trevon Diggs
2.50 - Kyle Dugger
1.1 - Joe Burrow
2.33 - Isaiah Wilson
2.54 - Willie Gay Jr.
1.15 - Javon Kinlaw
1.31 - Ezra Cleveland
3.74 - Ashtyn Davis
3.97 - Logan Wilson
1.17 - Jerry Jeudy
2.51 - Cameron Dantzler
3.82 - Adam Trautman
1.10 - Henry Ruggs III
2.46 - Jeff Gladney
3.83 - Prince Tega Wanogho
3.95 - Tyler Biadasz
1.3 - Jeff Okudah
2.35 - Marlon Davidson
3.67 - John Simpson
3.85 - Tyler Johnson
1.30 - Jalen Reagor
2.62 - Lucas Niang
3.94 - Jacob Eason
2.48 - Netane Muti
3.90 - Jeremy Chinn
1.24 - Jordan Love
2.44 - Tee Higgins
1.9 - CJ Henderson
1.20 - Kenneth Murray
2.42 - Antoine Winfield Jr.
3.73 - Bryan Edwards
1.32 - AJ Terrell
2.63 - Terrell Lewis
3.96 - Matt Peart
1.6 - Justin Herbert
2.37 - Austin Jackson
3.71 - KJ Hamler
2.52 - JK Dobbins
2.57 - Netane Muti
3.84 - Jordyn Brooks
3.104 - Amik Robertson
1.12 - CeeDee Lamb
1.23 - Kris Fulton
2.58 - Jalen Hurts
3.91 - Malik Harrison
3.98 - Davon Hamilton
1.5 - Tua Tagovailoa
1.18 - Xavier McKinney
1.26 - Josh Jones
1.39 - D'Andre Swift
1.45 - Brandon Aiyuk
3.70 - Lloyd Cushenberry III
1.22 - Yetur Gross-Matos
1.25 - Jaylon Johnson
3.80 - Terrell Burgess
3.81 - Donovan Peoples-Jones
3.89 - Logan Stenberg
3.105 - Antonio Gandy-Golden
1.19 - Patrick Queen
3.87 - Hunter Bryant
3.93 - James Morgan
2.34 - Zack Baun
3.75 - Cam Akers
3.88 - Bryce Hall
1.4 - Tristan Wirfs
2.36 - Josh Uche
3.99 - Matt Hennessy
1.11 - Jedrick Wills Jr.
2.40 - Michael Pittman Jr.
3.68 - Jonathan Greenard
3.79 - Troy Pride Jr.
1.21 - Justin Jefferson
2.53 - Grant Delpit
3.103 - Troy Dye
2.49 - Robert Hunt
3.102 - Leki Fotu
1.13 - Andrew Thomas
2.41 - Denzel Mims
3.77 - Jordan Elliott
1.27 - Julian Okwara
2.59 - Ross Blacklock
3.64 - Ben Bartch
3.109 - Kenny Willekes
1.14 - Mekhi Becton
2.56 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire
3.76 - Justin Madubuike
1.29 - AJ Epenesa
2.61 - Damon Arnette
3.100 - Van Jefferson
1.2 - Chase Young
3.66 - Cole Kmet
2020 NFL Draft Review - Analysis and Career Predictions for Each Team's Draft Class - NFC East
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If you missed the first two installments of this series, you can read the AFC North review here
and the NFC North review here.
Every year after the draft, I write a way-too-long review of each team’s draft
. The purpose of this draft review is to give predictions for the careers of each team’s drafted players. I’ve watched film of each player I’m commenting on. Draft grades are overly optimistic and unrealistic. Unlike the majority of post-draft coverage out there, I will pick busts. Keep in mind that 23.4% of all first-round picks bust
Let me preface this by saying: predicting the career of an NFL draft pick is a ridiculous exercise. There is so much unknown that goes into whether a player succeeds or fails at the next level. I can make educated guesses based on team situation, supporting cast, and research about the prospect’s character and work ethic, but there’s a reason teams make so many mistakes every year. You simply don’t know for sure how a player will react to being a pro. Injuries are also a huge factor in the fate of a player and impossible to predict accurately. I still write this long prediction article for three reasons:
1 - No one else does it. 2 - It’s more interesting than draft grades. 3 - It’s fun to try to get things right.
Like NFL teams, I’m going to get things wrong. The greatest football mind in history drafted Ryan Mallett and Chad Jackson. I also like to argue against the consensus when my evaluations allow me to. That has gotten me in trouble with some unpopular predictions that turned out to be hilariously wrong. On the flip side, I don’t think anyone else predicted Lamar Jackson would be the best quarterback of his draft class.
All of my picks are rooted in comprehensive film study and a mathematical understanding of what drafts typically produce
(spoiler: draft grades are unrealistically generous).
Before we start, here are some of my general thoughts on the 2020 NFL Draft.
Quickly on the broadcast - they did a great job given the circumstances. The production quality was great and they did more actual analysis than usual. My main gripe with draft coverage every year is that they don’t show incredible highlights (they somehow didn’t show the Aaron Dobson catch
in 2013). This year, they showed more footage of actual football and I appreciated that. The only two negatives for me were the constant tragic stories and Booger McFarland.
Oh, and if any poor soul bet on Justin Jefferson
Under 21.5 draft position, ESPN should apologize to you. They showed him on the phone celebrating right before cutting to Goodell announcing the 21st pick - Jalen Reagor
to the Eagles. Jefferson was of course on the phone with the Vikings, who took him at 22. Brutal beat.
As for the draft, remember this tweet about mock drafts being “wronger” than ever
? Funny, this was probably the chalkiest first-round ever in the internet age. Nothing was truly shocking to me, including the Packers trading up for Jordan Love
(more on that here
). I had Damon Arnette in the first round in my first mock draft this draft season
. I wrote an article lauding Jordyn Brooks as an undervalued commodity
. Noah Ibinoghene going in the first was surprising, I suppose. But there was no Clelin Ferrell at No. 4 or Tyson Alualu at No. 10. It speaks to how the media and internet scouts might be catching up to, or God forbid actually influencing the teams.
So here is the first installment of my annual draft review. Each player will receive their career prediction in parentheses following their name. For example: Joe Burrow
(5). Here's how the picks break down: 5 – All-Pro:
Starter who has performed at an elite level at his position. 4 – Above-Average:
Starter who has been among the best at his position. 3 – Solid:
Starter or valuable back-up with significant positive production. 2 – Replacement Level:
Below-average starter or back-up who made minor contributions. 1 – Bust:
Player who didn’t amount to anything positive.
Next up, the NFC East.
The Eagles came into the draft with primary needs at wide receiver and inside linebacker. In a loaded wide receiver class with some really solid day two inside linebacker prospects, they would have to try to mess it up. According to some, they did just that.
Jalen Reagor (3) was ranked 20th overall on my board
and over Justin Jefferson. I obviously don't think this pick was a mistake. Reagor's play style is reminiscent of Antonio Brown because of his twitch and ability to make contested catches at his smaller stature. Reagor struggled with drops a bit, but also had one of the worst quarterback situations of all the receiver prospects. His play speed looks closer to the sub-4.3 from his make-believe pro day than the turtle-like 4.47 at the combine. If you knocked him for that "slow" time, it pretty much proves you didn't watch his film. He's faster than 4.47 and the red flag is that he didn't prepare enough to execute his 40 at the highest level technique-wise. Back to actual football, Reagor will make a ton of plays as a pro, but continue to drop passes.
In the second round, the Eagles made one of the more shocking picks in recent memory, selecting Alabama back-up - I mean Oklahoma Heisman finalist - Jalen Hurts
(2). I disagree with this pick for one reason - I do not endorse Hurts as a franchise quarterback. However, under the assumption that the Eagles view him with that potential, it was a wise choice. Carson Wentz
is always banged up, and there's nothing more valuable than a quality quarterback in the NFL. I haven't seen this mentioned anywhere - THE EAGLES LITERALLY WON THE SUPER BOWL BECAUSE OF THIS POSITION. It's insurance with upside at the most valuable position in sports on a team with a constantly injured starter.
As for the actual player, Hurts lacks ideal decision-making, tucking as a runner too quickly and showing almost no ability to go through reads at a pro level. On the "did Manziel make Mike Evans
or the other way around" spectrum I lean towards CeeDee Lamb
(watch Texas). His arm strength also isn't ideal, as a lot of his throws outside the numbers, including simple hitches, take an hour to get there. He has decent touch and accuracy, but his game is based on rushing ability and improvisation.
I knew he would go fairly high in part due to Lamar Jackson's success. However, I was incredibly high on Jackson because he was an UNREAL runner. Hurts doesn't have that type of wiggle, speed, or elusiveness. He can run the heck out of power read though - expect that to be the staple of his rookie year package.
Philadelphia was one of few teams that actually took advantage of the wide receiver depth in this draft. There is a very low chance they didn't add a quality deep threat after selecting John Hightower
(2) and Quez Watkins
(3) in addition to Reagor. Watkins was one of my favorite speedsters after a highly productive career at Southern Miss. He fights the ball a bit, but his blazing 4.35 speed with that production plays in the NFL.
Hightower was similar on the smurf turf and has upside. Jack Driscoll (1) did not impress on film. He's heavy-legged, gets beat by good handwork, and doesn't show particularly good functional strength. I would give Prince Tega Wanogho (2), a lump of clay who doesn't know how to play yet, more of a chance to be a decent pro.
Despite getting laughed at by many, the Eagles' reasoning in taking Jalen Hurts in the second makes sense. I'm a proponent of Reagor over Jefferson and loved what they did in the later rounds, including the tripling up on deep speed at receiver. This class has the potential to pay huge dividends down the line.
New York Giants
It's time to admit that Dave Gettleman is a good drafter. His schtick is easy to make fun of, but I was in favor of the Beckham trade and the decision to draft Saquon Barkley
at 2. I had mixed reactions to last year's picks but Daniel Jones
had a promising rookie year. The Giants came in with a need at tackle, and Gettleman took the most polished offensive lineman in the draft at 4.
Andrew Thomas (4) fell down media draft boards due to over analyzation. Looking back, we were silly to believe any other of the technically-developing younger tackles would jump him on the Giants draft board. I had Thomas ranked as my No. 2 tackle (I love the upside of Becton), but this is one where his ultimate draft spot makes me question my ranking.
Thomas was a stalwart on the Georgia offensive line, and generally performed at an extremely high level. He mostly won the battle with K'Lavon Chaisson, and showed probably the best awareness picking up stunts in this class. I noted him as a mauler, and highlighted his length as a positive. He recovers after an initial punch in pass pro and overall shows better technique than the other tackles. He plays a little high and shows some waist-bending tendencies, but will likely usurp Nate Solder at left tackle and become a solid starter for many years in New Yor- Jersey.
Xavier McKinney's (3) evaluation boils down to one question: does he have the range to play deep? His 4.65 is a concern, and the film suggests he's more of a strong safety. The bottom line is that he projects as a quality player who excels most in the box. The head-scratching part is where they choose to play Jabril Peppers, because he's more comfortable in the box as well. A sound gameplan can have them both on the field at once in sub-packages, but McKinney's development as a deep safety is a situation to monitor.
As for the rest of their draft, I wasn't particularly high on Matt Peart (2), Darnay Holmes (1), or Shane Lemieux (1). Peart isn't strong yet but has good athleticism. I thought he was more of a guard. There's upside though. Holmes projects as a slot corner but has slow reaction time, isn't good in off coverage, and gets tossed around because he's so weak. Lemieux looks powerful against smaller defensive linemen and on double teams but he doesn't have pro traits in terms of his size-power ratio translating.
The Giants got their top-ranked offensive lineman and top-ranked safety. This is a huge litmus test for their scouting department because it's not very often you get your top pick at two positions. There will be some chatter about a sneaky Giants team contending in the NFC East, and it will come down to Danny Dimes. But don't forget that Saquon Barkley has an MVP-caliber year in him. With their pedestrian defense, it probably won't matter much.
The Cowboys are getting a ton of praise for following the consensus internet big board to make almost all of their picks. I used to think teams were so much smarter than media and internet scouts. However, after studying the draft for the past 15 years, it has become clear that teams that make "weird" picks usually end up being wrong and teams that simply take the consensus higher rated players usually end up doing better.
CeeDee Lamb (5) was ranked 5th overall on my board. I like Jerry Jeudy
, and I see Ruggs' potential, but Lamb is a dog. He's the quintessential WR1 and probably the best run-after-catch receiver I've ever scouted. Lamb isn't a freak athlete, but neither is Michael Thomas
and neither is DeAndre Hopkins
. The Cowboys needed a slot receiver and lucked out in a big way. Lamb will relegate Amari Cooper
to a WR2 in the near future.
Trevon Diggs (3) is an interesting prospect. He's the brother of Stefon and a gifted football player in the general sense, having actually earned snaps at wide receiver and punt returner at Alabama. He surely graded out well as a college corner, but the translatable traits don't pop out as positive on film. There's an awkward mistimed jump to play the ball, struggling to stay in-phase along the boundary, and an overall theme of probably being more comfortable facing forward than backward. He plays high and I envision him getting beat a lot early in press, but there's upside there and he'll develop nicely in a zone-heavy scheme.
I wasn't huge on Neville Gallimore (2) (notes read: jag-ish, jolted back too much, spin gets home but that doesn't translate), but based on everyone else's board it's a good value at 82. I also think Bradlee Anae's (1) ultimate draft slot is telling in a bad way. His sacks don't translate in terms of athletic traits or technique, and he's not big enough for strength to be his best skill.
I did, however, love the Reggie Robinson (3) pick. He showed out against Michigan State and Oklahoma State with a "sick" pick (goes back to YouTube), great feet, "sticking to the MSU receiver's hip," and "nice play vs the run." The Michigan State quarterback stopped looking at him after some great breaks on the ball. It wouldn't surprise me if he ended up being better than Diggs. Finally, Tyler Biadasz (3) is a badass. Injuries made him fall, but I liked him better than Cushenberry. Just a tough Wisconsin center.
The Cowboys killed it, and they needed to. Cheap young players on rookie contracts will be all they'll be able to afford after they extend Dak Prescott
Washington Redskins I was not a big Dwayne Haskins fan last year
, so I would have strongly considered a quarterback at 2. In the end, the deciding factor probably had little to do with Haskins and a lot to do with the absolute monster they chose instead.
Here's some hard-hitting in-depth analysis: Chase Young (5) is going to be good. He doesn't play with the power of some other elite edge rushers, but his twitchiness is just absurd. Play recognition, hands, inside moves, ability to run the arc, ability to anchor against the run - he has the makings of a hall-of-famer. The most underrated trait that can be evaluated on college film is balance. Chase Young has other-worldly balance for his size. Rumor has it the Wisconsin coaches burned their film against Ohio State. To say Young wrecked that game would be an understatement. You know how Derrick Henry
was just largely responsible for a deep playoff run? Chase Young is the Derrick Henry of defensive ends and will do the same for the Redskins in 2025.
In the third round, the Skins took offensive playmaker Antonio Gibson
(3) of Memphis. Gibson played mostly slot receiver for the Tigers and wasn't exactly comfortable running routes. He still managed to score 14 touchdowns on just 77 career touches, including an absurd touchdown run versus SMU (gif below). He's a little tight and struggled against better competition like Penn State, but the SMU tape shows off his 4.39 speed and playmaking ability. I was surprised how seamlessly Tony Pollard
made the transition to running back last year. I don't know if Gibson has that in him, but as a gadget guy and specials contributor early it's worth it to see if you can develop him.
Other picks included Saahdiq Charles (2) who has character issues but pretty good film, and Antonio Gandy-Golden
(3), who was a steal at 142 for his size/production mix. He'll be a surprise contributor this year on the fantasy scene.
The Redskins can thank Daniel Jones for beating them in overtime last year, as that loss locked up the second overall pick. They'll go through the motions with Dwayne Haskins, but ultimately Ron Rivera will get his own young quarterback to develop during Chase Young's prime.
Thanks for reading, and stay tuned for more divisions in the coming days.
Full article with Gifs: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-east/735919
NFC North: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-north/734932
AFC North: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-afc-north/735564?src=cat_feat_9954
Final Mock (With Trades)
Bengals - Joe Burrow QB LSU submitted by tfb1000 to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]
You have seen every reason as to why he should go to Cincinnati. He’s an Ohio kid, the reigning Heisman winner, and the best QB in college football this past season. It would be hard to justify taking anyone else here. Burrow is a winner, a leader, and will be the future of wherever he lands. Once he got the chance to accumulated at LSU we saw what happened. Burrow should be the number one pick.
Redskins - Chase Young EDGE Ohio State
I have seen plenty of film on Young. The truth is, it is very hard to find a fault in the man’s game. He probably has the highest expectations heading into the draft. For these reasons, I do not see Washington passing on him. They have drafted 3 first round D-lineman in the last 3 years and do have a plentiful of other needs including a tackle to replace Trent Williams and a corner to replace Josh Norman. Trading down a few picks to let someone take Tua here would probably be smart, but I believe they love Young too much.
Lions - Derrick Brown DT Auburn
This could be a trade down spot for Detroit but it seems in the recent days that QB’s may not go as high as originally thought. The Falcons may try to jump all the way up here for Simmons, but I am not sure they have the capital. The Lions have been linked a lot to Brown and reportedly fell in love with him over the recent weeks. After the atrocious defensive effort last season and letting Snacks Harrison go, and Brown will be a huge upgrade for the Lions.
Giants - Jedrick Wills OT Alabama
Another potential trade down spot. I think the Giants best bet is Isaiah Simmons, but reports in the recent weeks suggest they will go offensive line. Gettleman said he needs to invest in protecting his franchise QB and opening up space for the face of the team in Saquon Barkley. Wills comes from Alabama, where HC Joe Judge coached for many years. The connection is there and Wills is the most pro ready tackle in the draft to most.
Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama
Such an unpredictable pick here with so many conflicting reports, I am going with my gut. Adam Schefter reported the Dolphins were not as ‘all in on Tua’ as many thought, but I believe that is because they wanted Burrow who it doesn’t seem like they will be able to get. Maybe they trade up for an offensive lineman, or take one at five. I think they need to go with the player many thought was the best player in the draft up until his injury. Giving him a season’s rest should ensure his body is ready to go for a new and improved Miami team in 2021.
Chargers - Isaiah Simmons LB Clemson
The Chargers do need a QB, but not desperately. I believe they can play it smart here and wait to grab Herbert in the later half of the first round. Remember, Aaron Rodgers fell because no teams needed a QB, and who else really does after LA? Simmons can make their defense a top 5 one in the league, and the speed Simmons provides can help keep up with the speedy players in the AFC west.
Panthers - Jeff Okudah CB Ohio State
Okudah falls right into the lap of the Panthers at 7. They haven’t had a lock down CB since Josh Norman and Okudah is someone that can provide that stability. He is rated as the best CB in the draft and can help a rebuilding Panthers defense.
Falcons - C.J. Henderson CB Florida (Trade with Arizona)
Rumors have been swirling about the Falcons trading up, and I believe this the highest they can get considering where they sit at 16. Henderson is rated by some as a better corner than Okudah, and they need help after letting Trufant go to the Lions.
Jaguars - Tristan Wirfs OT Iowa
The Jaguars have a lot of holes. They let all of their stars go via trades and now building from the ground up. If I had to make a prediction, they could be picking in the top 5 next season. With that being said, going BPA here makes a lot of sense. Their offensive line has a lot of question marks on the edges, and Wirfs is a very versatile and strong player who can step in at guard or tackle and make a difference.
Broncos - Ceedee Lamb WrR Oklahoma (Trade with Cleveland)
There have been plenty of rumors about the Broncos trading up, either for tackle or WR. In my opinion, trading up in front of NYJ and LVR means they want to grade the WR they want, and that is Lamb. Adding a weapon like CeeDee can bring this offense into one of the best young offenses in 2020.
Jets - Andrew Thomas OT Georgia
The Jets would be thrilled if Thomas fell to them. Originally rated as the best OT, he can step in and make an immediate impact. If he doesn’t fall to them, I could see a trade down. I don’t think Douglas uses his first pick as a GM on a luxury pick like WR. Playing it safe with an OT makes more sense here.
Raiders - Henry Ruggs III WR Alabama
The Raiders have always been infatuated with speed. Ruggs brings that to table in his 4.27 40 time. The Raiders need help at WR where they were hurting big time last season after letting Antonio Brown go. Ruggs has a chance to make a big impact in Las Vegas.
Buccaneers - Mekhi Becton OT Louisville (Trade with San Francisco)
The Bucs trade up one spot to ensure they get their guy. Becton rose up draft boards after his combine performance and his combination of rare size and speed. Some scouts are skeptical of his abilities but his ceiling is the highest of all tackles on the board.
49ers - Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama (Trade with Tampa Bay)
The 49ers look like geniuses after a receiver many considered the best in the draft falls in their lap at 14. A report of knee issues that made have been made to get him to slide is why he falls this far to me, and will be a huge upgrade for Jimmy G’s receiving corp.
Browns - Josh Jones OT Houston (Trade with Denver)
After trading down with Denver, Cleveland gets a proven lineman in Josh Jones who had a great senior bowl. He posted the highest one on one win rate of any lineman. He also earned the highest PFF grade of any draft eligible tackle during the regular season in 2019. This is a great pick for Cleveland.
Cardinals - Javon Kinlaw DT South Carolina (Trade with Atlanta)
If this scenario plays out, it could be the biggest steal of the night. The Cardinals trade down and get a player who many believe is a top ten talent. His combination of size and lower body strength makes him a potential menace in the middle of trenches. Him and Derrick Brown are about the same size, but Kinlaw’s leg’s are much bigger so if you saw him from the waist up you would think he was a linebacker.
Cowboys - A.J. Terrell CB Clemson
Terrell has been in Dallas’ eyes for weeks now according to reports. The secondary must be addressed early by Dallas in the draft, and Terrell makes sense for them here. If not, I could see them going with McKinney from Alabama.
Dolphins - Xavier Mckinney S Alabama
Defensive minded head coach Brian Flores would love an Alabama safety to replace his former Alabama safety, Minkah Fitzpatrick. They do that with the exact pick they acquired for him. Their secondary needs a lot of help, but with the signing of Byron Jones and picking Mckinney, they can rebound in 2020.
Raiders - Kristian Fulton CB LSU
The Raiders need a lot of help in the secondary. They had one of the worst sets of corners in the league in 2019. Fulton can ‘exceed in a lot of different schemes’ and was the number one corner against ‘accurate passes according to PFF, receiving a 74.5 rating. In comparison, none of the corners I have selected above him were in the top 5. With the level of passes being a lot more accurate in the NFL compared to college, I like the sound of that ranking a lot. He also has the highest career grade of any the high rated corners at 91.9 in coverage.
Jaguars - Patrick Queen LB LSU
Queen is seen as the second best LB in the draft by many. The Jags need a lot of help and could go corner or trade this pick, but judging off BPA Queen could be the choice here. He is quick and makes plays. He is the pro-typical linebacker of todays age.
Eagles - Justin Jefferson WR LSU
Jefferson performed astoundedly when it mattered the most, posting 30 catches for 448 and 5 touchdowns in the final three games of his career. He is one of the most underrated prospects in the country and can be the WR 1 in Philly for years to come. They need a lot of help at WR and may trade up, but if not Jefferson should be their guy.
Chargers - Justin Herbert QB Oregon (Trade with Minnesota)
The Chargers trade up and get in front of NE to grab the guy they knew would be there later in the draft. Herbert has some work to do, but he has the intangibles of a franchise QB. Letting him sit under Taylor for a year to learn what it takes to be the guy can help him greatly in the long run. His screen percentage in college scares many, but I believe he can have a successful career with the right franchise backing him.
Patriots - K’Lavon Chaisson EDGE LSU
The Pats would be ecstatic if he falls to them at 23. Seen as the second best edge rusher in the draft, the Pats would love to upgrade their defense that they will surely have to be riding in 2020 to go far. He is still raw, but showed flashes of greatness in 2019 after being injured all of 2018.
Saints - Kenneth Murray LB Oklahoma
Murray is a consensus 2 or 3 ranked linebacker in most prospect lists, and his production at Oklahoma shows he can be someone that can make an impact for New Orleans. Racking up over 100 tackles in 2019 and running a 4.5 40, Murray can stretch the field.
Vikings - Jeff Gladney CB TCU
Gladney was the best corner in the Big 12 this season, holding CeeDee Lamb to two catches in their matchup.Taking a shot on Gladney who was productive in all of his years at TCU including All-Big12 honors as both a junior and senior while breaking up 26 passes, grabbing 3 interceptions, and being credited with six tackles for loss, he could be an answer for the replacement of the CBs they let walk in free agency.
Dolphins - Ceaser Ruiz C Michigan
Rising up boards lately, Ruiz has been linked to Miami. Their Offensive line was very bad last season, and that was partly because they had no one to hand the ball off to. With that being said, they could address RB here, but Ruiz could end up being a great selection.
Seahawks - Yetur Gross-Matos EDGE Penn State
Seattle seems to be trying hard to address this need, signing Jadeveon Clowney (who we are not sure is staying long term) and drafting L.J. Collier in the first round last season. Even after these moves, only one team had fewer sacks than Seattle last season. A Ravens scout called him ‘an athletic marvel,’ standing at 6’5” 265 lbs and accumulating 9.5 sacks last season.
Ravens - DeAndre Swift RB Georgia
Ingram is aging. The Ravens will be one of the best rushing offenses for years to come and can solidify that with the pick of Swift here. He is explosive and was seeing time in a crowded backfield of Sony Michel and Nick Chubb two seasons ago, showing how good he has been for the Bulldogs.
Titans - Austin Jackson OT USC
After letting Jack Conklin walk in free agency, the Titans will need someone to protect their new franchise QB whom they signed to a 4 year deal. Jackson is by many experts evaluation the next best tackle on the board after Jones. He is raw, but his performance this past season earned him a potential first round grade.
Packers - Brandon Aiyuk WR Arizona State
Aiyuk has been flying up the boards lately. Green Bay has been making noise about trading up, so maybe they want a higher rated receiver. If they do not end up doing so, pairing Aiyuk with Adams can help to make the Packers have a stronger offense in 2020.
Colts - Jordan Love QB Utah State (Trade with San Francisco)
Referred to as ‘a poor man’s Mahomes’ by one NFL coach, Love has risen up draft boards due to his very high ceiling. I personally am not sold on him and see him sliding past this pick potentially. However, Rivers is on a one year deal and Brissett only has one more year as well. The best scenario is Love falling to Indy or them potentially trading for a guy like Josh Rosen to develop, because Rivers and Brissett are not the long term answer for a team with value young pieces.
Chiefs - A.J. Epenesa EDGE Iowa
If Epenesa falls this far, I do not see the Chiefs passing up on the opportunity to draft him. As their defensive line continues to improve, adding a player with the production caliber of Epenesa can help get the ball in Pat Mahomes hands that much quicker. Epenesa totaled 22 sacks in his final two seasons and while he isn’t the sexiest prospect (his combine performance has caused him to fall), if you watch his film at Iowa you will see him in the back field as a disruptor more often than not.
Throne Room Sports 1st Round Mock Draft
submitted by ThroneRoomWayne to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]
I mocked out the first round assuming no trades and said who I think the team should pick and who I'm projecting that they actually will pick. Make sure to tell me how wrong I am, it is a mock draft after all, mock away.
- Cincinnati Bengals - Should draft Joe Burrow QB LSU. Will draft Joe Burrow QB LSU. Plain and simple pick here, Burrow is the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. His season at LSU was the best college season in history for a QB. Typically a team like the Bengals would be better served building up the talent in the trenches but you can’t pass on Burrow, he’s a once in a generation talent.
- Washington Redskins – Should draft Chase Young DE Ohio State. Will draft Chase Young DE Ohio State. Another easy pick that shouldn’t require any thought. In any other year he’s most likely the number 1 pick. The disruption he provides against the opposing offense is too tantalizing to pass up.
- Detroit Lions – Should draft no one here. This team has way too many holes to not try and pick up additional picks and build some depth on the roster. Tua is a big carrot that they should dangle to other QB needy teams who might overpay for the former presumed number 1 pick. Will draft Isaiah Simmons LB Clemson. Since I refuse to try and predict actual trades in this mock I think Simmons will be the pick here if they actually make it. His combine performance was one for the ages. Guys his size should not be that quick. Someone is going to reach for him when there are safer options still on the board.
- New York Giants – Should draft Derrick Brown DT Auburn. Will draft CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma. This pick should be defense all the way. Offensive weapons can be found later in the draft but with the top defensive prospect in Chase Young already gone I think the Giants try and pick up a huge receiving threat for Daniel Jones to hopefully try and open up the offense more for Saquan. He allows the Giants to stop relying totally on Saquan for everything and gives Daniel Jones a big time target to throw the ball to.
- Miami Dolphins – Should draft Tristan Wirfs OT Iowa. Will draft Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama. Look it really doesn’t matter who the QB is if he can’t stay upright. You have to protect the QB and guys like Wirfs are a plug and play starting LT for the next decade. I think he’s vastly underrated and will clearly be the best O-line prospect out of the class. They should try and pick up a QB with 18 or use some other capital to move up later in the draft and try to get their QB in the middle of the first when the price to move up isn’t so expensive. But ultimately the lure of Tua will be too much for them to pass up. And before his injury I would agree with the pick but there’s way too much uncertainty with injuries of his type for me to invest a top five pick in.
- Los Angeles Chargers – Should draft Justin Herbert QB Oregon. Will draft Justin Herbert QB Oregon. After moving on from Philip Rivers the Chargers look to pick the top QB left on the board. I’ll be shocked if QB isn’t the pick here. LA could fall in love with Jordan Love and make the mistake of taking him over Herbert but that would be surprising.
- Carolina Panthers – Should draft Tristan Wirfs OT Iowa. Will draft Jedrick Wills OT Alabama. Honestly neither selection would be a bad pick at all. I just favor the upside that Wirfs has. As I said earlier I think Wirfs will be the best tackle in this class. Wills is considered the more polished tackle right now but Wirfs is the direction that I would go. But with new coach Rhule calling all the shots now the safer pick in Wills is my guess as to what the Panthers will do.
- Arizona Cardinals – Should draft Tristan Wirfs OT Iowa. Will draft Tristan Wirfs OT Iowa. With a dual threat QB like Murray it’s imperative to have a strong line to protect him. Plus, with the acquisition of Hopkins in the dumbest trade in the history of the NFL (more on this later) giving Murray some extra time should pay off immensely. Wirfs has the ability to protect his blind side for the next ten years. I would expect Wirfs to immediately step in and start at the Guard position from his first game of the season but be the starting Left Tackle before the end of the season. There’s a chance Arizona falls in love with the athleticism of Becton here and selects him but Wirfs is my guess here. And if I didn’t pick him to go here every other selection on my “should draft” section would be Wirfs until a lineman needy team comes up. You’re welcome.
- Jacksonville Jaguars – Should draft Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama. Will draft Derrick Brown DT Auburn. Jacksonville should be jumping for joy that a talent like Jeudy has fallen to them at the ninth pick. He would immediately step in as the most talented wide out on the team and provide a spark to an offense that could appear anemic at times last year. He would open up the field more for Fournette to go to work, which would be scary. However in the scenario of this mock draft one of the most talented defensive players has fallen in, Derrick Brown. Four of the last five first round selections the Jaguars made have been defensive players and I believe that trend will most likely continue this year.
- Cleveland Browns – Should draft Jeff Okudah. Will draft Jeff Okudah. Honestly, I considered just skipping this pick (Sorry Browns fans). With the total front office turmoil and yet another new head coach it’s basically impossible to predict what the Browns will do from year to year. So I’m just going with the best player available in Okudah. And Browns fans would be ecstatic if Okudah falls this far. I promise I didn’t just forget about Okudah but with QBs being pushed up the draft board above more talented players at other positions someone had to fall some and Okudah latches on in Cleveland in this scenario.
- New York Jets – Should draft Mekhi Becton OT Louisville. Will draft Mekhi Becton OT Louisville. This pick just makes too much sense. The Jets need a top tackle and one of the most athletic freaks at the position in years is available. Guys Becton’s size should not be as quick and athletic as he is, it doesn’t make sense. Selecting Becton would protect Darnold which is imperative for the Jets.
- Las Vegas Raiders – Should draft Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama. Will draft Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama. Look I love Josh Jacobs but he’s not Christian McCaffrey, he can’t be the Raiders entire offense. Jeudy would come in and immediately pull defensive players out of the middle of the field and open the backfield up more for Jacobs. I’m not going to lie though I badly wanted to get crazy and predict a QB here. You just know that Gruden is dying to replace Derek Carr. I won’t be shocked at all if Jordan Love is the pick here. Personally, I wouldn’t take him in the first round but that’s just me and I’ll be shocked if Love doesn’t go in the first somewhere. Perhaps the Raiders trade back to 25 with the Patriots and they take Jeudy and the Raiders pick whoever if Love and Jacob Eason are still available. Sorry I’ll stop the trade talk immediately. It’s banned in this mock, remember?
- San Francisco – Should draft K’Lavon Chaisson DE LSU. Will draft K’Lavon Chaisson DE LSU. The Niners traded Buckner to the Colts to acquire this pick. I would fully expect them to try and use this pick to grab a cheaper defensive player than Buckner. Dude is a straight beast but I love this trade. The Niners get a quality defensive playmaker without having to pay Buckner 84 million over the next four year. Colts came out of this winners as well. He’ll be a HUGE upgrade on the defensive side of the ball where the 49ers are already stacked.
- Tampa Bay Bucaneers – Should draft D’Andre Swift RB Georgia. Will draft CJ Henderson CB Florida. Yes I realize that Swift going this high would be considered a reach. But I love this kid’s game. I think without him Georgia loses 3 or 4 games this past year in the regular season. I think he carried the team because Georgia was the most predictable offense I saw in football at any level. First down – run, second down – run, third down – pass (if Swift didn’t get a first down on either first or second). He is exactly what Tampa needs especially now that Tom effing Brady has come to town, adding him as a weapon to go along with Godwin and Evans would make the Bucs one of the scariest offensives in the NFL. But ultimately I think Arians grabs a CB out of Florida who has the highest upside of any defensive back in this draft. Okudah is the better player right now but Henderson’s ceiling is through the roof. He is one of the most fluid backs I’ve seen in years. He has the ability to be put on an island and lock down his side of the field, or shadow the best receiver on the offense and remove him from the game.
- Denver Broncos – Should draft Grant Delpit S LSU. Will draft Andrew Thomas OT Georgia. Delpit is in my opinion the best safety in this class, by a lot. But safety isn’t the biggest position of need for the Broncos, offensive line is. I’m not as high on Andrew Thomas as some are. I don’t think Georgia is a good school to send O-Line prospects to the NFL. Did you know that there are only 2 offensive tackles in the NFL from Georgia, shocking huh? And one of them is Cordy Glenn who is older than I am, and if I would have had the talent to play in the NFL I would have already retired. With the level of talent that Georgia has recruited there has to be a reason that more offensive tackles aren’t in the NFL, and for that reason I wouldn’t take Thomas but he’s my best guess here. There’s a chance Denver falls in love with one of the available receivers here in Ruggs or Higgins but OT is the safe option.
- Atlanta Falcons – Should draft Javon Kinlaw DT South Carolina. Will draft D’Andre Swift RB Georgia. The Falcons have been trying to find a dominant pass rusher for years and Kinlaw would provide that to the Falcons. But guys like Swift can come in and provide a spark to an offense that really needs it. Freeman didn’t provide much in the way of spark last year so getting someone as talented as Swift from Georgia could really push the Falcons offense forward and help provide a playoff push for the aging offense.
- Dallas Cowboys – Should draft Javon Kinlaw DT South Carolina. Will draft Javon Kinlaw DT South Carolina. Defense should be the pick here and there are multiple options for the Cowboys here. I went back and forth between Kinlaw and Delpit here and neither would surprise me at all. I decided to go with Kinlaw because he is the safer option. You can never have enough depth on the defensive line and the Cowboys are only a couple pieces away from being serious playoff contenders. Getting a guy like Kinlaw who can provide an impact from day one should be the priority.
- Miami Dolphins – Should draft Josh Jones OT Houston. Will draft Josh Jones OT Houston. Miami badly needs to add talent to the offensive line and unfortunately, they missed out on the top linemen in this draft. But Jones is not one to sleep on and he’s the best lineman from the second tier available. I’d project him as a Guard for at least his first year but he has the ability to become a very good strong side tackle for the Dolphins and give Tua some solid protection.
- Las Vegas Raiders – Should draft Kristian Fulton CB LSU. Will draft Jordan Love QB Utah State. I thought long and hard about projecting Love to the Raiders at the 12th pick, but Gruden’s patience pays off and he gets his QB of the future. I totally disagree with this pick. Love is way too careless with the ball for my tastes and I prefer Jacob Eason anyway. But athleticism is the future at the position and he has it in spades. He has a live arm that coaches rave about. Just don’t expect him to be a consistent starter in the league this next year.
- Jacksonville Jaguars – Should draft Henry Ruggs WR Alabama. Will draft AJ Epenesa DE Iowa. Again, I have the Jaguars passing on the top receiver left on the board when they really shouldn’t. But Jacksonville can’t seem to help itself from drafting defensive players in the first round. Jacksonville has drafted three wide receivers in the first round in the history of the franchise and all of them have been busts. I don’t see them selecting a WR in the first round this year. But do look for them to try and add one in the later rounds. I also don’t expect Yannick Ngakoue to still be with the team at the start of this next season and Epenesa would make a nice replacement for him. And I know his combine wasn’t great but the tape doesn’t lie, he’s a talented rusher.
- Philadelphia Eagles – Should draft Henry Ruggs WR Alabama. Will draft Tee Higgins WR Clemson. I’m really splitting hairs on this one and neither player would be a bad pick at all. The Eagles need to give Wentz a talented playmaker to throw to, and either player would be just that. I prefer Ruggs and think he has the ability to someday be what Tyreek Hill is right now. Tee Higgins size is why Philly goes with him over the equally talented Ruggs.
- Minnesota Vikings – Should draft Henry Ruggs WR Alabama. Will draft Henry Ruggs WR Alabama. Finally we find a taker for Henry Ruggs. With Diggs being traded to Buffalo Minnesota could look to replace him with a faster, more athletic version. Ruggs is hella fast, get this man the ball in some open space and he is gone. Personally, there is no way that I think he should have fallen this far but this whole thing is just a guessing game. If there is one thing that I probably got terribly wrong it’s this pick. Ruggs could end up going top 10.
- New England Patriots – Should draft Jacob Eason QB Washington. Will draft Grant Delpit S LSU. Well Tom Brady is no longer a New England Patriot. If I was going to project trades in this mock draft I would bet that New England tries hard to move up and get one of the elite QBs, especially if Tua falls which is quite possible. But it could actually work out better for them because there is a QB that is completely being slept on, Jacob Eason. He has only started for two years and one of those was at Georgia in the most predictable offense in all of college football so it really shouldn’t be held against him. At Washington he was more than serviceable and his best days are ahead of him. He has an absolute piss rocket for an arm and can make every throw that an NFL QB ever needs to make. Some mockers don’t have him in the first round which is crazy to me. But with all that said I think Belichick takes the best safety in the draft in Delpit, who falls a lot further in this mock than he should.
- New Orleans Saints – Should draft Kristian Fulton CB LSU. Will draft Justin Jefferson WR LSU. The best player left on the board is Kristian Fulton and corner is an area that the Saints need to address at some point in this draft. Even though New Orleans has the best receiver on the planet already playing for them they still need someone to line up on the other side of the field. Justin Jefferson is an all around wideout who could make an impact on day one, especially since Michael Thomas will draw the majority of the attention from the secondary.
- Minnesota Vikings – Should draft Kristian Fulton CB LSU. Will draft Kristian Fulton CB LSU. This pick just makes too much sense. Fulton is the best player available at a position of need for the Vikings. The Vikings could fall in love with Jacob Eason here and draft him to sit for a year and then be the QB of the future. But I think Zimmer will try and pick someone who can make an impact this year as they hope to make another playoff push.
- Miami Dolphins – Should draft Yetur Gross Matos DE Penn State. Will draft Cole Kmet TE Notre Dame. Matos is the top edge rusher left on the board and that is a position that the Dolphins need depth at badly. Matos would be a pretty good cherry on top of a good draft for the Dolphins. But I think that Brian Flores tries to give his new Quarterback a strong safety net in the top Tight End in the draft. A pass catching TE is the best weapon for young QBs to turn to when the play breaks down and Kmet has the ability to put up good numbers day 1.
- Seattle Seahawks – Should draft Austin Jackson OT USC. Will draft Neville Gallimore DT Oklahoma. Seattle is so tricky to try and guess who they are going to pick. They like to lock onto their guy and draft. And value be damned they will pick him at the first chance they get. Offensive line is in my opinion their biggest area of need unless they want Russell Wilson to retire early from all of the hits that he takes. Jackson is an athletic, massive mountain of a man who probably starts his career on the inside at Guard but Seattle needs depth and he would provide that. But I’m going to guess that Seattle picks Gallimore. He’s one of the biggest freaks in this draft. Mountains like Gallimore should not be able to run as fast as he does. He blew the combine up and I just have a gut feeling Seattle is going to pick him, but I won’t be surprised at all if Seattle selects a player with a third round grade here.
- Baltimore Ravens – Should draft Yetur Gross Matos DE Penn State. Will draft Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin. Chalk this pick up totally as a luxury pick. Running back really isn’t a position of need for the Ravens and Lamar rushes as much or more as some other team’s running backs. But that’s not a method for success long term. Mark Ingram has crossed the 30-year age mark for running backs, which means he’s practically in the retirement home. It’s entirely possible Ingram is the next Frank Gore who plays until he’s 40 (Gore is 36 but it feels like he’s been in the league for 20 years). But I think at some point Ingram’s production is going to fall and getting a guy like Taylor in the running back room is only going to further increase the potency of this offense.
- Tennessee Titans – Should draft Xavier McKinney S Alabama. Will draft Xavier McKinney S Alabama. This is purely a best player available pick. McKinney could have gone 10 picks ago and no one would have blinked an eye. The Titans pick up an absolute stud safety who many believe is the best in this class. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Vrabel decides to go with Kenneth Murray here as the leader of his defense from the linebacker position. But I think the value McKinney provides is too good to pass up.
- Green Bay Packers – Should draft Laviska Shenault WR Colorado. Will draft Jacob Eason QB Washington. Well history repeats itself in this mock draft. Let’s flash back to the year 2005 for a second. Green Bay is picking 24th and they have a 36-year-old quarterback by the name of Brett Favre who is a legend in Green Bay. But decide to draft their quarterback of the future in a 22-year-old with a cannon for an arm named Aaron Rodgers. Well this year Aaron Rodgers is 36 and I think that Green Bay will select the 22-year-old quarterback with a cannon for an arm out of Washington named Jacob Eason. If this happens it will immediately become the main story of the draft. Rumors will start to swirl about Green Bay trading Aaron Rodgers for the next few years. Now the question becomes should Green Bay make this pick? Probably not, Shenault is a versatile wideout who looks more like a running back once he catches the ball. He would provide the Packers with the ability to line him up all over the field. But let’s be honest Green Bay picking Eason is the much more fun reality. Plus, I think people are sleeping all over Eason. If he had been the starter for more than one year I think he would have been picked in the top 15.
- San Francisco 49ers – Should draft AJ Terrell CB Clemson. Will draft AJ Terrell CB Clemson. Depth in the secondary is going to be a problem for the 49ers next year and they can address it here by selecting the top cornerback left on the board in Terrell. He probably should have already been selected by now, but you won’t be hearing 49ers fans complaining about him still being available. This kid is going to make an impact in the league and should be able to contribute immediately.
- Kansas City Chiefs – Should draft JK Dobbins RB Ohio State. Will draft Kenneth Murray LB Oklahoma. Is running back the biggest need for the Super Bowl champions? No, that rests on the defensive side of the ball. If I were running the Chiefs, I would select Dobbins because adding a three down back to that offense would be terrifying. Will the Chiefs actually do this? Probably not, but they absolutely should. The Chiefs are a smartly ran team and they will most likely try and add a defensive playmaker. Kenneth Murray is the best available player on the board and has the skillset to be the defensive leader of whatever team drafts him in the next few years. But you have to admit, imagining Dobbins on this offense is pretty damn scary.
Eagles’ Betting Record: ATS 4-9-0 | OVER/UNDER 6-7-0 Eagles’ Leaders on Offense. QB Carson Wentz: 3,165 pass yards with 22 TD and 7 INT *RB Miles Sanders: 948 total yards with 3 TD Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 1 preview, betting trends and notes. The Redskins are 2-4 against the spread in their last six games, with wins against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. The Eagles are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games, with a 4-1 straight up record in the same timeframe. The Eagles are a prohibitive favorite (-223), but there are a lot worse moneyline numbers people have bet on. The Redskins are getting a solid number (+180), but since we think the Eagles are going to cover 5.5 points, we’re shying away from the moneyline. If you’re going to bet the moneyline, take the Eagles. Our experts preview the Week 15 NFL matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins. Find betting odds, our experts' pick and more predictions for this NFC East showdown below. You'll also find analysis of the biggest mismatch and Sean Koerner's projected spread. Eagles vs. Redskins odds, spread, line: 2019 NFL picks, predictions from proven model on 95-64 roll SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated Sunday's Eagles vs. Redskins game 10,000 times.